4th november ,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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November 04,2015 Vol 5,Issue XI

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Contact: Mujahid Ali mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com All Contents are published with written permission of ORYZA.com with thanks

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Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Prices Hold Steady amid Limited Selling and Demand Nov 04, 2015

The U.S. cash market was seen unchanged today with little to no trading to report. Farmers continue to show very limited interest in selling at the numbers they are being bid while exporters complain of insufficient demand.

Analysts note that the USDA WASDE report due out next Tuesday, November 10th could be friendly for U.S. prices if they make further downward revisions to this year’s yield which many suspect they will.

Besides that, the next glimmer of hope for higher U.S. prices in the short term would be if the U.S. was awarded a chunk of the latest Iraq tender.

We should know the results of that after November 19th; however, given the issues with the last tender many in the industry are not holding their breath.

FAO Forecasts Bangladesh 2015 Paddy Rice Production at Record Level Despite Lower Aman Output Nov 03, 2015

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts Bangladesh 2015 paddy rice output to reach record 51.895 million tons, slightly above last year's 51.793 million tons despite a likely decline in the Aman (mid-May to mid-December) rice crop, which accounts for about 40% of the country's total output.Harvesting of the 2015 Aman rice crop will start in November and will continue until mid-December. The FAO forecasts 2015 Aman paddy rice output at about 19.6 million tons, down about 1% from last year due to a decline of about 2% in acreage

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reflecting

low

domestic

prices

at

sowing

time.

Harvesting of 2014-15 Boro (mid-November to mid-May) and 2015 Aus (mid-March to midAugust) seasons rice crops were completed earlier in the year. The FAO estimates Boro production at a record level of 28.8 million ton due to higher plantings and the Aus output is estimated to remain close to last year’s level of around 3.495 million tons.The FAO estimates 2015-16 (April - March) rice imports at around 570,000 down from the previous year's record 1.5 million tons due to expected higher production and higher carryover stocks.Domestic rice prices were relatively stable for the last four months, but well below their year-ago levels, says the FAO

Iran Lifts Ban on Rice Imports from November 2015, Says GTC Chairman Nov 03, 2015

Iran's Government Trading Corporation (GTC) has announced that it is lifting ban on rice imports from November 2015, according to Bloomberg. The Middle East nation imposed a ban on rice imports in November 2014 citing excess production and adequate stocks.The Chairman and CEO of GTC told reporters that the ban was lifted on October 23, 2015 and the agency has issued an international tender to purchase rice. "During production season we banned the import of rice ... now the harvest has finished and the ban has been automatically lifted," he was quoted.

He however, declined to share details of the rice tender.

He also noted that the agency aims to maintain strategic reserve of all grains at a secure level, including rice, despite high production figures.Iran is the biggest buyer of Indian basmati rice

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accounting for about a third of India’s total rice exports. A possible increase in demand is expected to provide some relief to Indian basmati rice exporters and farmers, who have been struggling to cope with falling prices and low demand. They are expecting Iran to issue new import licenses in December or January.Shares of Indian rice companies have reportedly climbed up by 10-20% following the news of Iran lifting the ban on rice imports.

Global Rice Quotes November 4th, 2015 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 365-375 ↔ Vietnam 5% broken 370-380 ↔ India 5% broken 345-355 ↔ Pakistan 5% broken 310-320 ↑ Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔ Cambodia 5% broken 415-425 ↔ U.S. 4% broken 490-510 ↔ Uruguay 5% broken 535-545 ↔ Argentina 5% broken 530-540 ↔ Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken 345-355 ↔ Vietnam 25% broken 355-365 ↔ Pakistan 25% broken 280-290 ↔ Cambodia 25% broken 400-410 ↔ India 25% broken 330-340 ↔ U.S. 15% broken 500-510 ↔ Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 355-365 Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 405-415 India parboiled 5% broken stxd 340-350 U.S. parboiled 4% broken 590-610 ↔ Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔ Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔ Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% 790-810 ↔ Vietnam Jasmine 470-480 ↓ India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Cambodia Phka Mails 830-840 ↔ Brokens Thailand A1 Super 320-330 ↔ Vietnam 100% broken 330-340 ↔ Pakistan 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↔ Cambodia A1 Super 355-365 ↔

↔ ↔ ↔

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India 100% broken stxd Egypt medium grain brokens U.S. pet food 330-340 Brazil half grain NQ

285-295 NQ ↔ ↔ ↔

↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Oryza CBOT Rough Rice Futures Recap Chicago Rough Rice Futures Go Nowhere as Market Fails to Muster Follow-through Buying Interest after Yesterday's Rally Nov 04, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery settled 0.5 cents per cwt (about $0.11 per ton) higher at $12.175 per cwt (about $268 per ton). The other grains finished the day higher as well; Soybeans closed a tick higher at $8.7900 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.7% higher at $5.1650 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.1% higher at $3.8050 per bushel.U.S. stocks traded higher Tuesday, attempting to extend November's gains so far, as investors awaited key economic reports and Fed speakers later in the week. In economic news, U.S. factory orders fell 1.0% in September, a second-straight month of decline, Reuters reported. Initial auto sales reports for October showed continued strength.

No other major data is scheduled for release Tuesday, ahead of Friday's key nonfarm payrolls report which investors will watch carefully for indications on the timing of a rate hike.

Comments from central bank policymakers are expected on Wednesday, with speeches from Chair Janet Yellen, Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and New York Fed President William Dudley.

On Monday, stocks kicked off the first trading day of November with gains of nearly 1% or more that took major averages to key levels.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed in the green for 2015, joining the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite in positive territory for the year so far. In early afternoon trade, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 110 points, or 0.62%, to 17,939. The S&P 500 gained 7 points, or 0.35%, to 2,111, with energy leading six sectors higher and consumer staples the greatest decliner. The Nasdaq rose 24 points, or 0.47%, to 5,151. Gold is trading about 1.9% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 4.4% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.3% higher about 1:15pm Chicago time.Monday, there were 1,321 contracts traded, down from 1,976 contracts traded on Friday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Monday decreased by 17 contracts to 12,666.

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Three-Year Agreement Signed to Regulate Italian Rice Supplies and Stabilize Prices Nov 03, 2015

Riso Gallo, one of the oldest rice-milling companies in Europe, and FIR (Supply Italian Rice), a cooperative owned by farmers' union Coldiretti, have signed a new agreement at the end of the Milan Expo to avoid paddy price volatility in Italy for the next three years, according to local sources.The two groups aim to reduce the price fluctuations of traditional varieties, especially Arborio and Carnaroli. These two varieties in particular are subject to substantial fluctuations.

Quotations in a week can increase up to 100 euro (about $110) per ton. Currently their price is around 650-700 euro (about $716-771) per ton.

According to the three-year agreement, farmers can sell their paddy to FIR, which will in turn supply to Riso Gallo every month between October and July of every crop year (September August). FIR will pay a first deposit to the rice growers at the time of supplying rice and at the end of the year, it will pay the total amount based on the average quotations of the entire season.

The final price is calculated by using a formula that will attenuate the variations."Price stability is necessary to Italian rice sector to be competitive on foreign markets, who are not accustomed to the volatility of our stock quotes," said the Chairman of FIR and the Head of Riso Gallo.

USDA Post Estimates India MY 2015-16 Rice Exports to Decline Sharply on Tight Supplies Nov 03, 2015

The USDA Post estimates India MY 2015-16 (October - September) rice exports to decline to around 9 million tons, down about 24% from an estimated 11.8 million tons in MY 2014-15 due to likely tight supplies.It also estimates India's rice exports at record 11.5 million tons in the calendar year 2015. Based on the trade reports, the Post reports that India exported around 8.7 million tons of rice in the first nine months of 2015, compared to around 7.8 million tons exported during the same period last year. It expects the pace of exports to remain steady in the remaining three months of the year on expected weak domestic prices and steady export demand.

The Post estimates India MY 2015-16 rice production at around 103 million tons, down from around 104.8 million tons in MY 2014-15 and down from USDA's official forecast of around 103.5 million tons. It estimates paddy rice acreage during the year to remain at last year's level of around 43 million hectares and slightly down from USDA's official estimates of around 43.2 million hectares.

The Post reports that the government of India has begun rice procurement for the kharif marketing season 2015-16 and has procured about 6.54 million tons of rice as of October 25,

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2015, compared to around 5.05 million tons procured during the same period last year. The government is targeting to procure about 30 million tons of rice in this season.

Domestic rice prices have declined in October and are expected to decline further in November due to the arrival of new crop, says the Post.The Post estimates India's MY 2015-16 ending stocks at around 12.66 million tons, down an estimated 17.7 million tons in MY 2014-15 and down from USDA's official estimates of around 11.906 million tons.

Vietnam Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Today; Other Asian Rice Export Quotes Remain Unchanged Nov 03, 2015

Vietnam rice sellers have increased their quotes for 100% broken rice by about $20 per ton to around $330 - $340 per ton today. Other Asian rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged.

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5% Broken Rice Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton about $15 per ton discount on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton, about $40 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton.

25% Broken Rice Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $345 - $355 per ton, about $10 per ton discount on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $355- $365 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around $330 - $340 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $280 $290 per ton.

Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton, about $65 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.

100% Broken Rice Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, at $10 per ton discount to Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $285 - $295 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $275 - $285 per ton.

Vietnam Raises 2015 Rice Export Forecast to Around 7 - 7.5 Million Tons Nov 03, 2015

The government of Vietnam has increased its estimates for 2015 rice exports to around 7 - 7.5 million tons, excluding border exports, from the earlier estimated 6 million tons, according to the Vice-Head of Crop Production Dept. under the Agriculture Ministry, reports Bloomberg.

The increase in rice export prices and increasing demand from Indonesia and the Philippines are said to the main factors that have prompted the Ministry to raise the export forecast.

Vietnam 5% rice prices are currently quoted at around $370 per ton, up from the lowest level of around $325 per ton in September 2015. However, the prices are still below their year-ago levels of around $435 per ton. Vietnam exported about 4.48 million tons of rice in January 1 - October 20, 2015, down about 17% from about 5.37 million tons of rice exported in first ten months of 2014, according to data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). The average rice export price so far in this year stands at about $418.7 per ton (FOB), down about 4% per ton from about $435.6 per ton recorded during same last year.

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