Economic and Market Watch Report 2nd Quarter, 2009
*Click on a County to view economic and real estate information at the county and zip code level © 2009 Ada County Association of REALTORS®, Intermountain Multiple
Listing Service, Inc. and NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Reproduction, reprinting, or retransmission in any form is prohibited without written permission.
Ada County Association of REALTORS® and Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc. Economic and Market Watch Report Ada County Association of REALTORS® (ACAR) is the largest local REALTOR® association in Idaho, with over 2,200 REALTOR® members. ACAR is a tax-exempt, non-profit corporation with two wholly owned subsidiaries: the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc.(IMLS) and the Ada County Association of REALTORS® Foundation, Inc. The mission statement of ACAR is: To enhance the ability and opportunity of its members to conduct their business successfully and ethically and to promote private property rights as the preservation of the right to own, transfer, and use real property. IMLS produces a multiple listing service for use by approximately nine local boards and associations representing almost 3300 REALTOR® members. The IMLS market area covers most of Southern Idaho and portions of Eastern Oregon. IMLS makes possible the orderly dissemination and correlation of listing information to its members so that REALTORS® may better serve the buying and selling public.
Index Local Report Idaho Ada County .................................................................................................................. Adams County ............................................................................................................. Blaine County ............................................................................................................... Boise County ................................................................................................................ Camas County .............................................................................................................. Canyon County ............................................................................................................ Elmore County ............................................................................................................. Gem County ................................................................................................................. Gooding County ........................................................................................................... Idaho County ............................................................................................................... Jerome County ............................................................................................................. Lincoln County ............................................................................................................ Owyhee County ............................................................................................................ Payette County ............................................................................................................. Twin Falls County ....................................................................................................... Valley County ............................................................................................................... Washington County ..................................................................................................... Oregon Malheur County ...........................................................................................................
1 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Others ...........................................................................................................................
21
Trends ............................................................................................................................................... Chief Economist's Commentary* ................................................................................................... Economic Monitor* .........................................................................................................................
22 23 25
20
*Reprinted from Real Estate Outlook: Market Trends and Insights. ©2009 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ®. Used with permission. Reproduction, reprinting, or retransmission of this article in any form (electronic media included) is prohibited without permission. For subscription information please call 1-800-874-6500.
Local Report
Ada County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : Employment declined by 2,173 jobs in April and May. The job losses brought about an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 7.5% in the first quarter to 7.8% for the second two months of the second quarter. Job losses are ticking upwards, creating a drag on buyer confidence and demand in Ada County. However, historically low mortgage rates have created a favorable buying enviroment for those with a job.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$212,800
$210,600
3,964
4,661
# Homes Sold **
919
1,469
# New Homes Built ***
192
183 ***
Avg # of Days on Market ****
95
92
# Homes on the Market *
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name
Average Price
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year)
Average
Days on Market
% of Asking Price
Boise Bench - 0400
$153,800
-14.79%
97
-5.83%
75
96.5%
Eagle - 0900
$369,800
-17.93%
109
6.86%
96
93.4%
East Boise County - 1450
$300,000
-24.05%
1
0.00%
217
86.1%
Garden City - 0700
$191,600
-60.70%
5
150.00%
128
91.0%
Kuna - 1100
$153,300
-12.95%
96
-17.24%
78
98.8%
NE Boise - 0200
$345,400
-14.57%
33
-15.38%
55
94.2%
NE Meridian - 1020
$194,200
-18.98%
140
22.81%
99
96.3%
North Boise - 0100
$316,000
-17.28%
75
10.29%
89
94.9%
NW Boise - 0800
$213,000
-21.98%
91
33.82%
99
96.1%
NW Meridian - 1030
$177,900
-22.25%
223
5.19%
105
97.7%
SE Boise - 0300
$239,900
-15.77%
92
-34.29%
71
96.6%
1
Local Report
Ada County, ID Town Name
Average Price
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year)
Average
Days on Market
% of Asking Price
SE Meridian - 1000
$222,900
-10.88%
63
-18.18%
120
96.9%
South Boise - 0500
$186,000
-22.08%
52
44.44%
81
94.7%
Star - 0950
$211,000
-15.33%
55
34.15%
96
95.1%
SW Boise-Meridian - 0550
$179,000
-14.02%
134
-23.43%
96
96.8%
SW Meridian - 1010
$250,000
-29.46%
16
33.33%
96
95.3%
W Boise-Garden City - 0650
$171,800
-23.30%
145
-10.49%
94
97.4%
West Boise - 0600
$154,500
-14.69%
42
-31.15%
80
95.9%
2
Local Report
Adams County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : In the first two months of the second quarter, 27 jobs were added to the payrolls of Adams County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 17.6% during the first quarter to 16.9% for April and May. This steady job creation may help to maintain demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should support this trend.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$70,000
$252,600
# Homes on the Market *
64
72
# Homes Sold **
2
3
# New Homes Built ***
NA
NA
Avg # of Days on Market ****
56
55
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name Adams County - Other - 1925
Average Price $280,000
Council-Fruitvale - 1900
$77,700
New Meadows - 1920
$400,000
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
44.33%
1
N/A
1
18.34%
1
3
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year) 0.00% N/A -50.00%
Average
Days on Market 3
% of Asking Price 100.0%
49
94.9%
114
80.2%
Local Report
Blaine County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : Employment declined by 328 jobs in April and May. The job losses brought about an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 6.8% in the first quarter to 7.1% for the second two months of the second quarter. Job losses are ticking upwards, creating a drag on buyer confidence and demand in Blaine County. However, historically low mortgage rates have created a favorable buying enviroment for those with a job.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$245,000
$236,500
# Homes on the Market *
16
29
# Homes Sold **
6
2
# New Homes Built ***
1
1
Avg # of Days on Market ****
58
36
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name Out of Area - 2000
Average Price $236,500
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
N/A
2
4
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year) N/A
Average
Days on Market 36
% of Asking Price 90.1%
Local Report
Boise County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : Boise County saw 39 layoffs occur during April and May. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 8.8% during the first quarter to 7.2% in the first two months of the second quarter. Rising job losses are hurting demand, but historically low mortgage rates are improving affordability.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$224,400
$276,600
# Homes on the Market *
98
128
# Homes Sold **
5
14
# New Homes Built ***
1
11
160
139
Avg # of Days on Market ****
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name
Average Price
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year)
Average
Days on Market
% of Asking Price
East Boise County - 1450
$294,600
20.34%
8
33.33%
181
94.1%
Garden Valley - 1425
$288,500
-19.86%
2
100.00%
66
95.4%
Horseshoe Bend - 1400
$234,600
-28.54%
4
33.33%
93
93.4%
5
Local Report
Camas County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : Employment declined by 15 jobs in April and May. The job losses brought about an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 8.7% in the first quarter to 8.9% for the second two months of the second quarter. Job losses are ticking upwards, creating a drag on buyer confidence and demand in Camas County. However, historically low mortgage rates have created a favorable buying enviroment for those with a job.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$174,900
$102,500
# Homes on the Market *
21
29
# Homes Sold **
2
2
# New Homes Built ***
NA
NA
Avg # of Days on Market ****
62
54
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name N Elmore-Camas County - 1510
Average Price $102,500
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
-22.23%
2
6
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year) 100.00%
Average
Days on Market 54
% of Asking Price 95.4%
Local Report
Canyon County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : Canyon County saw 909 layoffs occur during April and May. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 10.5% during the first quarter to 10% in the first two months of the second quarter. Rising job losses are hurting demand, but historically low mortgage rates are improving affordability.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$138,100
$136,300
2,275
2,493
# Homes Sold **
748
679
# New Homes Built ***
67
63
Avg # of Days on Market ****
97
94
# Homes on the Market *
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name Canyon County Other - 1290
Average Price
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year)
$220,700
11.58%
10
11.11%
Greenleaf - 1294
$90,800
-43.25%
2
Melba - 1265
$225,600
96.17%
9
Average
Days on Market
% of Asking Price
116
95.8%
100.00%
42
97.1%
800.00%
160
94.9%
Middleton - 1285
$187,500
-15.31%
54
50.00%
120
95.1%
NE Nampa (87) - 1250
$132,800
-17.26%
99
7.61%
82
96.2%
NW Caldwell - 1275
$98,200
-29.66%
52
-22.39%
61
97.7%
NW Meridian - 1030
$237,500
15.97%
2
100.00%
45
90.5%
NW Nampa (51) - 1270
$111,600
-20.79%
111
19.35%
82
97.8%
Parma - 1292
$146,000
14.69%
5
66.67%
52
91.9%
South Nampa (86) - 1260
$144,300
-22.25%
176
9.32%
102
96.0%
Star - 0950
$359,300
N/A
121
92.6%
SW Caldwell - 1280
$118,200
1.37%
104
97.4%
N/A
7
-19.70%
148 7
Local Report
Canyon County, ID Town Name Wilder - 1293
Average Price $196,100
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
-21.97%
4
8
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year) 0.00%
Average
Days on Market 54
% of Asking Price 97.4%
Local Report
Elmore County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : In the first two months of the second quarter, 324 jobs were added to the payrolls of Elmore County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 7.7% during the first quarter to 6.5% for April and May. This steady job creation may help to maintain demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should support this trend.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$159,200
$158,000
# Homes on the Market *
301
326
# Homes Sold **
92
80
# New Homes Built ***
NA
NA
Avg # of Days on Market ****
115
121
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name Mtn Home-Elmore - 1500
Average Price $158,000
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
-6.12%
80
9
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year) -3.61%
Average
Days on Market 122
% of Asking Price 98.0%
Local Report
Gem County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : Gem County saw 77 layoffs occur during April and May. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 11.2% during the first quarter to 10% in the first two months of the second quarter. Rising job losses are hurting demand, but historically low mortgage rates are improving affordability.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$147,400
$139,300
# Homes on the Market *
205
239
# Homes Sold **
66
39
# New Homes Built ***
NA
NA
Avg # of Days on Market ****
96
104
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name Emmett-Gem County - 1550
Average Price $139,300
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
-20.76%
39
10
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year) 11.43%
Average
Days on Market 105
% of Asking Price 94.5%
Local Report
Gooding County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : In the first two months of the second quarter, 433 jobs were added to the payrolls of Gooding County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.8% during the first quarter to 4.6% for April and May. This steady job creation may help to maintain demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should support this trend.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$121,000
$116,600
# Homes on the Market *
110
137
# Homes Sold **
36
32
# New Homes Built ***
NA
NA
Avg # of Days on Market ****
150
76
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name
Average Price
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year)
Average
Days on Market
% of Asking Price
Gooding-Wendell-Bliss - 2040
$106,300
-8.52%
25
19.05%
60
96.9%
Hagerman - 2035
$153,100
0.53%
7
-22.22%
138
93.9%
11
Local Report
Idaho County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : In the first two months of the second quarter, 383 jobs were added to the payrolls of Idaho County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 12% during the first quarter to 10.1% for April and May. This steady job creation may help to maintain demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should support this trend.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
NA
$210,000
# Homes on the Market *
NA
19
# Homes Sold **
NA
1
# New Homes Built ***
NA
NA
Avg # of Days on Market ****
NA
21
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name Idaho County - 1950
Average Price $210,000
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
27.27%
1
12
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year) 0.00%
Average
Days on Market 21
% of Asking Price 95.9%
Local Report
Jerome County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : In the first two months of the second quarter, 316 jobs were added to the payrolls of Jerome County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 6.8% during the first quarter to 5.5% for April and May. This steady job creation may help to maintain demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should support this trend.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$137,300
$145,800
# Homes on the Market *
172
206
# Homes Sold **
68
46
# New Homes Built ***
NA
NA
Avg # of Days on Market ****
120
102
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name
Average Price
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year)
Average
Days on Market
% of Asking Price
Eden-Hazelton - 2050
$134,700
35.38%
3
-25.00%
53
99.1%
Jerome - 2030
$146,600
-4.25%
43
-14.00%
106
97.1%
13
Local Report
Lincoln County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : In the first two months of the second quarter, 170 jobs were added to the payrolls of Lincoln County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 13% during the first quarter to 10.8% for April and May. This steady job creation may help to maintain demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should support this trend.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$122,200
$86,800
# Homes on the Market *
44
55
# Homes Sold **
8
5
# New Homes Built ***
NA
NA
Avg # of Days on Market ****
180
136
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name Shoshone-Richfield - 2020
Average Price $86,800
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
-36.41%
5
14
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year) 25.00%
Average
Days on Market 137
% of Asking Price 97.9%
Local Report
Owyhee County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : Owyhee County saw 50 layoffs occur during April and May. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.5% during the first quarter to 3% in the first two months of the second quarter. Rising job losses are hurting demand, but historically low mortgage rates are improving affordability.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$121,900
$111,500
# Homes on the Market *
64
81
# Homes Sold **
8
8
# New Homes Built ***
NA
NA
Avg # of Days on Market ****
133
79
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name Owyhee County - 1700
Average Price $111,500
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
-22.62%
8
15
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year) -55.56%
Average
Days on Market 79
% of Asking Price 92.4%
Local Report
Payette County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : A decline in employment of 18 jobs was offset by a decrease in the number of persons looking for work during the first two months of the second quarter. The net effect was no change in the 9.7% average monthly unemployment rate from the first quarter. Job losses are cutting into confidence and demand, but historically low mortgage rates are creating a great buying opporunity for those with a job and good credit.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$131,300
$141,200
# Homes on the Market *
224
260
# Homes Sold **
64
49
# New Homes Built ***
NA
NA
Avg # of Days on Market ****
133
98
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name
Average Price
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year)
Average
Days on Market
% of Asking Price
Fruitland - 1725
$168,800
-11.85%
19
35.71%
119
96.4%
New Plymouth - 1775
$142,500
-15.18%
5
-64.29%
72
91.0%
Payette - 1750
$120,000
-17.64%
25
-39.02%
88
94.8%
16
Local Report
Twin Falls County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : In the first two months of the second quarter, 1,212 jobs were added to the payrolls of Twin Falls County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 6% during the first quarter to 5.2% for April and May. This steady job creation may help to maintain demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should support this trend.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$156,600
$146,900
# Homes on the Market *
765
906
# Homes Sold **
272
209
# New Homes Built ***
16
46
Avg # of Days on Market ****
109
105
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Price
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year)
Average
Town Name
Average Price
Buhl-Castleford - 2055
$92,800
-26.06%
18
-33.33%
77
Filer-Hollister-Rogerson - 204
$145,600
-8.14%
8
-61.90%
93
98.1%
Hagerman - 2035
$140,000
N/A
1
83
94.3%
Kimberly-Hansen-Murtaugh - 202
$195,800
12.27%
18
-21.74%
101
96.3%
Twin Falls - 2015
$147,500
-15.28%
164
-12.30%
111
96.6%
Change (1 Year)
17
N/A
Days on Market
% of Asking Price 97.1%
Local Report
Valley County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : Employment increased by 1 jobs in Valley County during April and May. However, the number of job seekers also increased. The combined effect of these two trends was an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 13.2% for the first quarter to 14% in the first two months of the second quarter. The solid job growth may provide home sales, while historically low mortgage rates boost affordability.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$291,000
$239,800
# Homes on the Market *
219
313
# Homes Sold **
30
21
# New Homes Built ***
3
13
149
108
Avg # of Days on Market ****
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name Valley County - 1800
Average Price $239,800
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
-56.26%
21
18
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year) 250.00%
Average
Days on Market 108
% of Asking Price 96.7%
Local Report
Washington County, ID Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : A total of 111 jobs were created during April and May. The new jobs in Washington County were offset by a proportional increase in the number of job seekers. The net result was no change in the average monthly unemployment rate for the first two months of the second quarter from the 9% rate of the first quarter. The new jobs should help demand. Coupled with historically low mortgage rates, these two patterns should help to keep the market moving.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$139,400
$117,400
# Homes on the Market *
115
146
# Homes Sold **
28
21
# New Homes Built ***
NA
NA
Avg # of Days on Market ****
104
75
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name
Average Price
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year)
Average
Days on Market
% of Asking Price
Midvale - 1875
$170,000
34.92%
1
-50.00%
31
95.0%
Weiser - 1850
$114,800
-13.10%
20
11.11%
78
90.4%
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Local Report
Malheur County, OR Buyer's Market
1
2
3
4
Seller's Market
5
Labor Market : Employment increased by 275 jobs in Malheur County during April and May. However, the number of job seekers also increased. The combined effect of these two trends was an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 11.8% for the first quarter to 12.5% in the first two months of the second quarter. The solid job growth may provide home sales, while historically low mortgage rates boost affordability.
Housing Market :
Q1' 09
Q2' 09
Q3' 09 (Forecast)
Average Price
$102,800
$100,300
# Homes on the Market *
156
188
# Homes Sold **
50
34
# New Homes Built ***
3
5
Avg # of Days on Market ****
82
106
***
* Available as of Jun. 30, 2009. ** May not add to total of towns. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date.
Town Name
Average Price
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year)
Average
Days on Market
% of Asking Price
Nyssa-Malheur Other - 1650
$101,300
11.81%
6
50.00%
166
92.6%
Ontario - 1600
$98,600
-21.93%
21
-4.55%
93
93.2%
Vale - 1625
$104,400
-24.78%
7
-12.50%
93
95.1%
20
Local Report
Others
Town Name
Average Price
Price
Change (1 Year)
Total # Homes Sold (Quarter)
Burley-Rupert-MiniCassia - 200
$125,900
9.76%
35
Magic Valley Others - 2060
$355,000
N/A
1
Out of Area - 2000
$88,200
-33.68%
11
21
% Change in # Homes Sold (1 Year) 45.83% N/A -42.11%
Average
Days on Market
% of Asking Price
94
97.5%
183
89.7%
112
96.0%
Trends You’ve Got to Fall Before You Can Pick Yourself Up By Ken Fears Manager, Regional Economics The national housing market peaked in 2006, but some local markets peaked before this period, while others were still on the upswing through 2007. Today, most markets are in decline as a result of the economic recession, problems in the mortgage markets and a hangover from the subprime mess. Critical to a recovery is eliminating the perception of the local market as being in decline and crucial to this change is defining the “bottom” in the market covered by Intermountain MLS. Nationally, the median price peaked in the third quarter of 2005. Since then, it has fallen 23.5%. Over the last 12 months, the median home price has fallen 15.7%. Thus, 60.4% of the national price decline took place in the last 12 months ending in June of this year. Sales have followed suit. After peaking in the third quarter of 2005, the quarterly sales volume declined 34.5%, but only 3.6% in the 12 month period ending in June. The bulk of the decline in sales, 92.9%, occurred prior to the large price declines of the last 12 months. This pattern makes sense. After years of a strong sellers’ market, sellers were reluctant to recognize the change in affordability as mortgage rates began to creep up in the middle of 2005. As financing and demand dried up, sellers were forced to re‐evaluate their asking prices in an environment of excess supply and economic pessimism. The delay to re‐price exacerbated the price correction. N a ti on a l M e dia n P r ic e (P in k ) a n d S a le V o lu m e (B l ue ) 8 ,0 0 0
$ 2 5 0 ,0 0 0
7 ,0 0 0
$ 2 0 0 ,0 0 0
6 ,0 0 0 $ 1 5 0 ,0 0 0 5 ,0 0 0 $ 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 4 ,0 0 0 $ 5 0 ,0 0 0
3 ,0 0 0
$0
2 ,0 0 0 200 5 Q1
200 5 Q3
200 6 Q1
20 06 Q3
20 07 Q1
20 07 Q3
20 08 Q1
20 08 Q3
2 009 Q1
Locally, the housing market reached its peak price in the second quarter of 2007 with an average price of $231,497. Today, 8 quarters later, the average price stands at $177,611, a peak‐to‐date decline of 23.3%. Over the last twelve months the average price has fallen $32,848 which accounts for roughly 61.0% of the total peak‐to‐date price decline. Sales are down 56.8% since their peak in the second quarter of 2005 through the second quarter of 2009. Over the last 12 months, sales have fallen 3.7%, making it too early to tell if the seasonally‐ adjusted pattern of local decline is over. Nationally, neither sales nor prices appear to have clearly defined a bottom, yet. When that process is done, consumers are more likely to gain the confidence that they need to get in the market. 22
Commentary
“Appraising” the Situation by Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist As I write this, we are about to celebrate the 4th of July – Independence Day. What started as a revolt against unfair taxes became a revolution against an imperial government intruding into the lives and business activities of colonial citizens. Tea tax, stamp tax, burdensome regulations and rules that impede the free flow of goods and trade. Thank goodness we are blessed to live in the land of the free. Of course, for many households and businesses today, independence is tempered by the current economic environment. We have seen improvement in our economy, but we need to see more – especially in the real estate sector. Let first take a look at the latest developments. The latest residential housing market figures do indeed give me some hope. Existing-home sales rose 2.4 percent in May. May’s increase follows a rise in re-sales in April as well. That’s the first back-to-back monthly increase in existing-home sales since September of 2005. Pending sales also rose. And while May’s pending home sales index of 90.7 represented a mere 0.1 percent from the previous month’s (upwardly revised) reading of 90.6, it was 6.7 percent higher than the index in May 2008. Indeed, May’s pending home sales index was the fourth consecutive monthly gain since October of 2004. Housing affordability continues at historically high levels as well. NAR’s Housing Affordability Index in May was 171.6. While that is off from April’s revised reading of 178.8, the index last May was 129.8. And remember that April’s index was the highest reading ever recorded since NAR began tracking housing affordability in 1970. So what’s holding back our “independence” from the current recession and a true housing recovery? First and foremost – jobs. June’s employment figures showed that employers cut 467,000 payroll jobs during the month – a much larger number than most analysts expected. And the good news that May’s job cuts were smaller than originally estimated (322,000 rather than 345,000) was offset by revised April employment figures which showed 15,000 more layoffs than originally thought. The national unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent – that’s the highest level in 26 years. It’s likely that the unemployment rate will surely breach the doubledigit threshold before it starts to trend back down in 2010. But another factor which seems to be impeding a housing recovery is new appraisal rules and they could be impacting the time it takes from contract to closing. There is a growing lag time between the pending home sales and closed sales. Traditionally, sales close one to two months after a contract is signed. In the past month, we’ve heard from a number of REALTORS® that the appraisal process is taking longer. The appraisal issue is a bit complicated. For instance, distressed homes often are selling for 20 percent less than normal homes in the same area. (In May, distressed properties accounted for almost a third of all existing-home sales.) But some appraisals don’t distinguish between traditional homes and distressed properties.
23
Commentary In many cases appraisers from outside the area are being used. They are hired by large, national lenders, perhaps with little knowledge about a local real estate market. The intentions of the new appraisal rules were to improve accuracy by removing undue pressure for inflation valuations. But the pendulum may have swung too far in the other direction, leading to unintended negative consequences, including consumers paying higher fees, and appraisers receiving lower compensation. Another consequence is a “lower quality” of appraisals – many appraisers themselves (and REALTORS® as well) have indicated to me that they’ve seen lower quality of appraisals because those appraisals do not take into consideration unique housing features. The result of all of these “unintended consequences” from the new appraisal rules: the housing market recovery being unnecessarily delayed. (More details about the new appraisal rules, current legislation under consideration and NAR’s efforts on this issue are available at www.realtor.org. The Association also has a “blog” on which you can share your concern and latest experiences with the new appraisal rules.) All real estate is local and appraisals should be done by an expert with local expertise. Speedy clarification of the appraisal rules could smooth a housing market recovery and support the overall economy. NAR is currently conducting a study to assess the degree to which new appraisal rules are impacting home sales. And NAR is working with policymakers to ensure that appraisals are conducted so that home buyers and sellers can conduct their transactions with REALTORS® in a cost-effective and time-efficient manner. So let’s declare a bit more of our independence – and freedom from restrictive rules that are holding back a vigorous housing recovery. Only when that happens will we be free from the reins – and the reign – of our recession.
24
Economic Monitor This table reflects data available through July 3rd of 2009.
Recent Statistics
Monthly Indicator Existing Home Sales r2.4% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million units. The inventory of existing homes available for sale fell to 3.80 million units – a 9.6 month supply at the current sales pace. The national median sales price for an existing home was $173,000 in May, a 16.8% decline from the price registered a year ago. New Home Sales slipped in May, posting a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 342,000 units. The pace is 0.6% off the revised April level of 344,000 units, and 32.8% below the level registered in May of 2008. New home inventory continued to decline, with 292,000 units available for sale at the end of May – a 10.2 month supply at the current sales rate. Housing Starts rose in May to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 532,000 units – a 17.2% increase from April’s level, but 45.2% off the level in May of 2008. Single-family starts increased 7.5% from the previous month. Building permits – generally a reliable indicator of future starts – also rose in May – by 4.0% – but were still 47.0% down from their level a year ago.
Housing Affordability continues to be at historic highs. NAR’s housing affordability index (HAI) in May posted a reading of 171.6 – down from April’s record-setting level of 178.8, but well above the 129.8 index registered in May of 2008. Affordability has been consistently above the 170.0 mark since the beginning of the year.
Likely Direction Over the Next Forecast Six Months
May 09 4,770 Apr 09 4,660 May 08 4,950
Momentum building and broadening to more geographic regions
May 09 342 Apr 09 344 May 08 509
Very few spec home sales
May 09 532 Apr 09 454 May 08 971
Recovery taking hold only from 2010
May 09 171.6 Apr 09 178.8 May 08 129.8
Very high already
Mortgage Rates remain at historic lows. The average rate on a 30-year June 09 5.42% fixed mortgage loan was 5.42% in June. While an increase from May’s May 09 4.86% average rate of 4.86%, it is well below the 6.32% average in June of 2008. June 08 6.32% As the economy begins to turn the corner, look for mortgage rates to inch upward although remaining well below 6% for the foreseeable future.
Employment The job market continues to hold back any meaningful “quick start” to the economic recovery. Employers cut 467,000 payrolls in June. Businesses will continue to hold back on hiring until the credit markets loosen up and they are convinced that the economy is moving in the right direction.
Economic Growth GDP growth in the first quarter declined 5.5% (SAAR) – slightly better than earlier estimates. This is the third and final estimate of GDP based on more complete data. Among the factors “raising” the GDP figure was the level of imports which dropped significantly more than earlier estimated. Consumer spending increased 1.4% – the highest it has been in almost two years.
June 09 -467 May 09 -322 12-month total: -5,664
2009:I -5.5% 2008:IV -6.3% 2008:I -1.0%
Could spike if inflation appears
Tough job market in 2009
Sluggish rebound
Notes: All rate are seasonally adjusted. New home sales, existing home sales, and housing starts are shown in thousands. Employment growth is shown as month-to-month change in thousands. Inflation is shown as the month-to-month change in the Consumer Price Index. Sources: NAR, Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association
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