Earlier News

Now that 2012 has come to an end we can all breath a sigh of relief, right?

Not so quickly, we may have just crossed the threshold.........

"Russia is clearly showing that it’s not for turning its back on traditional ally Syria; even less on Iran. Not so much out of principle, but for defence and survival. If Syria and Iran fall to the US/UK/Israeli hegemon, who do you think is next? And those NATO missiles in Poland, what are they there for?

As the Western geopolitical serpent tries to tighten its hold on planet Earth, time is not on their side: key Castles and Bishops will move on the Global Grand Chessboard. Watch China and Russia5."

Russia to Hold Large-Scale Mediterranean, Black Sea Naval Drills http://en.rian.ru/military_news/20130102/178543197/Russia_to_Hold_Large-Scale-print-print.html Jan 2, 2013 MOSCOW, January 2 (RIA Novosti) – Russia will hold large-scale naval drills in the Mediterranean and Black Seas in late January with the involvement of warships from the Northern, Baltic, Black Sea and Pacific Fleets, the Russian Defense Ministry’s press office reported on Wednesday.

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The Russian Navy’s drills of this scope will be held for the first time over the past few decades and are designed to improve control, ensure and practice multiservice force interaction of the fleets in the far-off maritime zones,” the press office said.

The drills will be held in line with the Russian Armed Forces’ 2013 combat training plan and will aim to “practice the issues of establishing a multiservice grouping of forces (troops) outside Russia, planning its use and conducting joint actions as part of a united naval grouping based on a common plan,” the press office said.

The naval task forces from the Russian Fleets are currently heading towards the designated areas of the naval exercises.

The drills will also simulate operations to load marine troops and paratroopers from the rough coast of the North Caucasus onto amphibious ships and will help the Navy’s personnel acquire necessary marine practice skills during the performance of “combat training missions in the Black and Mediterranean Seas,” the press office said.

Russian warship heads to Syria in preparation for a possible evacuation http://www.timesofisrael.com/russian-warship-headed-for-syria-in-preparation-for-a-possible-evacuation/ Dec 30, 2012 The Kremlin is sending another warship to the Syrian port of Tartus, where Russia has a naval base, Russian news agencies reported.

The reports Sunday by the ITAR-Tass and Interfax news agency cited an unidentified official in the military general staff as saying the Novocherkassk, a large landing ship, has set sail from the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk. She was “accompanied by a combat ship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet,” according to a Russian news source.

Reports: Russia sends another naval ship to Syria http://news.yahoo.com/reports-russia-sends-another-naval-ship-syria-155143740.html Dec 30, 2012 MOSCOW (AP) — Russian news agencies say the navy is sending another ship to the Syrian port ofTartus, where Russia has a naval base.

The reports Sunday by the ITAR-Tass and Interfax news agency cited an unidentified official in the military general staff as saying the Novocherkassk, a large landing ship, has set sail from the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk. The ship is expected to arrive in the Tartus area in early January.

The reports gave no information on the ship's intent. But Russian diplomats have said that Moscow is preparing a plan to evacuate thousands of Russians from Syria if necessary. The Defense Ministry announced two weeks ago that several ships were being dispatched to the Mediterranean.

Fateh missiles and Russian-Iranian military cooperation to bolster Assad http://www.debka.com/article/22640/Fateh-missiles-and-Russian-Iranian-military-cooperation-to-bolsterAssadDec 29, 2012 French and Israeli intelligence sources affirmed Saturday, Dec. 29, that, contrary to reports appearing in the United States Friday, Iran has accelerated rather than slowed down its 20-percent grade enrichment of

uranium and is racing toward a nuclear weapons capacity. Furthermore, for the moment, there is not the slightest indication that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has any intention of accepting the Obama administration’s latest plan for a nuclear deal.

As DEBKAfile has revealed, this plan would require Iran to discontinue production of 20-percent enriched uranium (which can be quickly converted to weapons grade material), and confine itself to producing low 5 percent uranium in agreed amounts. Tehran would also have to accept the removal from the country of its entire stock of 20-percent refined uranium.

The same sources point to the first appearance this week of Iran-made Fateh A-110 high-precision, shortrange missiles in the use of the Syrian army against rebel fighters, under the guidance of Iranian officers and instructors, as underscoring the inter-dependence Tehran draws between the Syrian and nuclear issues.

Khamenei now links an acceptable solution for the Syrian dilemma to his possible nuclear flexibility.

DEBKAfile: When Iranians talks about an inter-power solution for ending the Syrian war, they mean a deal between Washington, Moscow and Tehran on both issues.

The Fateh missiles are being fired quite openly by Iranian military personnel in command of Syrian missile units as Tehran’s answer for the deployment of US, German and Dutch NATO Patriots on the Turkish side of the Syrian border. They also carry a message in response to Israel’s threat of offensive action against Syria if it becomes necessary to thwart its use of chemical weapons. According to our French and military sources, Tehran is using the Fateh missiles and the Iranian military presence in Syria to warn that there is no bar to their use against Turkey, Jordan and Israel as well, in the event of a US or Israel attack on Syria’s chemical stores.

On no account, will Iran permit the overthrow of Bashar Assad’s regime in Damascus. At most, Tehran conceives of his departure in stages and handover to an emergency government led by the military or an armed forces faction to which certain opposition elements may be co-opted. Elections, in the Iranian view, must be deferred until hostilities end and the security situation is stable.

American and French sources agree that Tehran and Moscow have attained full coordination in their strategies for Syria and also on Iran’s nuclear program. They note that it was not by chance that the Russian Navy Wednesday, Dec. 26, launched its largest sea maneuver everin the Mediterranean and the approaches to the Persian Gulf, just two days before Iranian warships, submarines and aircraft embarked on their weeklong Velayat 91 sea exercise in the Straits of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman, and northern parts of the Indian Ocean.

The command centers of the Russian and Iranian war games are under orders from Moscow and Tehran to jointly exhibit naval muscle in order to bolster the Assad regime against collapse.

Parallel to the influx of Fateh missiles from Iran to Syria, Moscow is rapidly expanding the deployment of its highly-sophisticated S-400 air and missile interceptors in Russia’s southern military region near the Turkish border.

Russian Warships Gather in Mediterranean for Drills http://en.rian.ru/military_news/20121225/178396571.html Dec 25, 2012 MOSCOW, December 25 (RIA Novosti) - About a dozen Russian warships are converging on the Mediterranean and the Gulf of Aden as part of a large-scale strategic exercise, a high-ranking representative the General Staff of Russia’s Armed Forces said on Tuesday.

“This part of the world’s oceans is very important from the point of view of Russia’s geopolitical interests, including the fact that the Russian Navy has a logistical base here [in Syria],” he said.

The warships will conduct air-defense, anti-ship and anti-submarine drills and call at some foreign ports, including Tartus in Syria, he said.

He declined to specify whether the large landing ships were carrying military equipment for Syria.

“The main aim of sending the ships to the Mediterranean is to accomplish the missions set by the navy command, conduct exercises and show the flag,” he said.

On Monday, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov dismissed media reports there were commando units and military equipment for Syria on board some of the warships.

A naval task force from Russia’s Northern Fleet left the Severomorsk base last Wednesday and set course for the Horn of Africa on a new anti-piracy mission, the Defense Ministry said.

It includes the large antisubmarine ship Severomorsk, the salvage tug Altai, and the tanker Dubna, as well as a contingent of naval infantry subunits. The force will travel the length of the Mediterranean, pass through

the Suez Canal and relieve the Pacific Fleet task force that has been there on an anti-piracy mission since November.

A Baltic Fleet task force set sail last Tuesday for the eastern Mediterranean where it will relieve a group of Black Sea warships. The force includes the frigate Yaroslav Mudry, the large landing ships Kaliningrad and Alexander Shabalin, the salvage tug SB-921 and the tanker Lena.

The new anti-piracy mission is expected to reach the region by mid-January.

Russia keeps a naval task force in the Gulf of Aden as part of the international effort to fight piracy off the Somali coast.

On Monday, large landing ships Azov and Nikolai Filchenkov from Russia’s Black Sea Fleet left Novorossiysk for the Syrian port of Tartus. The ships are carrying naval infantry units for protection during the voyage.

They are expected to join the Black Sea Fleet task force comprising the missile cruiser Moskva and the frigate Smetlivy in the Aegean Sea on December 28 before heading to Tartus.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich confirmed on Monday that Russia has a contingency plan for evacuation of Russian citizens from Syria if necessary.

The conflict between Bashar al-Assad regime and opposition forces in Syria has claimed the lives of over 30,000 people since March 2011, according to UN figures.

Russian military presence in Syria poses challenge to US-led intervention http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/23/syria-crisis-russian-military-presence Dec 23, 2012 Russian military advisers are manning some of Syria's more sophisticated air defences – something that would complicate any future US-led intervention, the Guardian has learned.

The advisers have been deployed with new surface-to-air systems and upgrades of old systems, which Moscow has supplied to the Assad regime since the Syrian revolution broke out 21 months ago.

The depth and complexity of Syria's anti-aircraft defences mean that any direct western campaign, in support of a no-fly zone or in the form of punitive air strikes against the leadership, would be costly, protracted and risky. The possibility of Russian military casualties in such a campaign could have unpredictable geopolitical consequences.

Meanwhile, near-daily atrocities have kept western governments under pressure to act. A Syrian government air strike on a town near the central city of Hama on Sunday killed dozens of civilians queueing for bread, according to human rights activists.

Amateur footage from Halfaya showed mangled human remains strewn along a street where people had been blown off scooters and out of cars. One video showed a boy with his feet blown off. Piles of corpses could be seen beneath rubble outside a two-storey building the cameraman described as a bakery. It was unclear how many bodies were in the smoking ruins.

Human Rights Watch has previously accused the regime of targeting bakeries. The group warned the Assad regime that such targeted bombing of civilians represented war crimes. However, in the face of a Russian veto at the UN security council, the international criminal court has not had a mandate to investigate the atrocities committed by either side. The UN has put the death toll at more than 40,000 as the war continues to escalate.

Turkish officials, who accurately predicted the Syrian regime would use Scud missiles after several warplanes were shot down by rebels, also believe President Bashar al-Assad has twice come close to using chemical weapons including sarin, the nerve gas. First, after the bombing of the regime's Damascus security headquarters in July, which killed the president's brother in law, Assef Shawkat, and then last month, after opposition forces made significant gains.

The Turks and western officials say there are signs Assad sees chemical weapons as another step in the escalation of force, rather than a Rubicon-crossing gamble that could end his regime. The US, UK, France and Turkey have warned Syria that its use of such weapons would trigger military retribution. But any such a response would be fraught with difficulties.

Air strikes against chemical weapon depots would potentially disperse lethal gases over a vast area, triggering a humanitarian disaster. US and allied special forces have been trained to seize the air bases where the warheads are kept, but it is unclear what the next step would be. It would be physically impossible to fly the hundreds of warheads out of the country, while it would take thousands of troops to guard the

arsenal for what could be many months. In the interim, those western troops could easily become the target of Islamist groups fighting the government in Damascus.

Any air strikes against regime targets, in response to chemical weapon use, or any attempt to create a no-fly zone to stop further bombing of refugee camps, would require the suppression of Syria's formidable defences. Those have been bolstered significantly since Israeli strikes on an alleged nuclear reactor site at al-Kibar in 2007 exposed holes, and again since the outbreak of the Syrian uprising in March 2011.

The upgrades were supplied by Moscow, which sees them as a bulwark against western-imposed regime change and protection of a longstanding investment in Syria. The country includes Russia's biggest electronic eavesdropping post outside its territory, in Latakia, and its toehold on the Mediterranean, a small naval base at Tartus.

Russian security and defence officials, who are notoriously loth to publicly comment on their operations abroad, have repeatedly denied providing explicit support for the Assad regime.

Over the weekend, the head of Russia's ground forces air defence, Major General Alexander Leonov, told the Ekho Moskvy radio station: "Syria's air-defence system is a no-nonsense force. As a result, no one has ever used serious air combat power against it."

That "no-nonsense" force, the air defence command, comprises two divisions and an estimated 50,000 troops – twice the size of Muammar Gaddafi's force – with thousands of anti-aircraft guns and more than 130 anti-aircraft missile batteries.

According to Jeremy Binnie, the editor of Jane's Terrorism and Security Monitor, recent Russian deliveries include Buk-M2 and Pantsyr-S1 (known to Nato as SA-22) mobile missile launch and radar systems. Reports of the shipment of the modern long-range S-300 have not been confirmed, and the Syrian armed forces did not show off any S-300 missiles in a military display this year. It is possible they have been delivered but are not yet operational.

Guy Ben-Ari, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said: "They don't just sell the equipment. They also help man the crews and train the crews. Sometimes there is just no domestic capacity to run these systems, and that is the case in Syria where Syrian crews are not capable of using the equipment to its full capacity."

Sources familiar with the Moscow-Damascus defence relationship confirmed the presence of Russian airdefence crews inside Syria. Their deployment would be a consideration when western contingency plans for Syria were being considered, they said.

Such a dense, layered and overlapping air-defence system would require a huge air campaign, heavily reliant on thousands of precision-guided missiles. The UK, France and other American allies in Europeused up their stocks of such weapons in Libya and although details are classified there have been reports that they have not yet returned to pre-Libya levels.

"We know they pretty much ran out of them at the end of Libya. Given the budgetary constraints the Europeans are operating with, and in an era where every euro spent on defence is very heavily scrutinised, it is a hard sell to restock on this stuff," Ben-Ari said. "And it would not be enough to be at Libya levels. You would need far more for Syria."

A Syrian air campaign would also require stealth aircraft and a great amount of signals intelligence, satellite imagery and aerial reconnaissance, all of which are US specialities. For all those reasons, Washington would not be able to "lead from behind" as it did in Libya.

The Obama administration has so far been extremely wary of getting enmeshed in another Middle East war, particularly with the knowledge that the long-running Iranian nuclear crisis could trigger a conflict in the Gulf at any time. With the resignation of CIA director David Petraeus last month, the administration arguably lost its most powerful advocate of Syrian intervention.

John Kerry, the nominee for secretary of state, has advocated greater support for the rebels, but stopped short of calling for direct US or Nato involvement. With no new secretary of defence yet nominated, it could take several months for the new team to recalibrate its approach.

The robust Syrian defences, combined with Damascus's hand-in-glove relationship with Moscow, and the fragmented nature of the opposition, help explain why a US-led intervention – predicted as imminent for more than a year by advocates and opponents alike – has so far failed to materialise, and why there is little appetite for such a move in Washington and most other western capitals, barring a major, verifiable use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime.

Russian forces take Syrian chemical, biological weapons under control http://www.debka.com/article/22627/Russian-forces-take-Syrian-chemical-biological-weapons-under-control Dec 22, 2012 The chemical warfare threat looming over Syria’s civil war and its neighbors has taken an epic turn with the announcement by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Saturday, Dec. 22, that “the Syrian government has “consolidated its chemical weapons in one or two locations amid a rebel onslaught and they are under control for the time being.”

He added that Russia, “which has military advisers training Syria’s military, has kept close watch over its chemical arsenal.”

DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report: The Russian foreign minister’s statement was a message to Washington that the transfer of Syria’s weapons of mass destruction to one or two protected sites was under Russian control. This had removed the danger of them falling into the hands of the al Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra ,which had come ominously close Friday, Dec. 21, when the Islamists spearheaded a Syrian rebel assault for the capture of the al-Safira military complex and Bashar Assad’s chemical and biological stores.

Lavrov did not go into detail about how this arsenal was removed and to which locations. But his reference to “Russian military advisers training Syria’s military” clearly indicated that Russian forces were directly involved in removing the WMD out of the reach of the Jabhat al-Nusra terrorists.

His assertion that they were “under control” indicated that Russia was also involved in safeguarding them.

DEBKAfile’s Moscow sources add: Russia’s military intervention in the Syrian civil war achieved four objectives: 1. The prevention of Western or Israel military action for seizing control of Syria’s chemical and biological weapons arsenals; 2. The prevention of Western military intervention in the civil war behind the forces dedicated to the removal of Bashar Assad. The Russian military is now engaged in the dual mission of guarding his WMD arsenal and his regime; 3. The Russian military presence in Syria delivers a heavy swipe to the rebels; 4. Russia’s intervention and military presence have laid the groundwork for Moscow and Washington to work out an accord that will bring Syria’s civil war to an end.

DEBKAfile reported Friday, Dec. 21: The Syrian Air Force is again firing Scud missiles, this time to stem the general offensive Syrian opposition forces, including jihadis, launched Friday, Dec. 21, to capture the Syrian army’s military-industrial complex at al Safira and the big chemical and biological weapons store adjoining the facility. It is there, that Scud D missiles stand ready for launching, loaded with chemical weapons.

Rebel forces are converging on Al Safira from the east, the west and the south. Among them are brigades of the Jabhat al-Nusra which the US has designated part of al Qaeda in Iraq.

DEBKAfile military sources report extremely heavy fighting. The rebels have reached points 1-2 kilometers from the perimeter walls of the Al Safira chemical weapons stores and are being pounded by Syrian warplanes and assault helicopters as well as Scuds, in a desperate effort to halt their advance.

Success in seizing control of those stores would re-tilt the balance of the war in their favor and bring President Bashar Assad face to face with a decision on whether to broach the perilous dimension of chemical warfare on the rebels or even against NATO or US targets outside Syria.

A prime factor in his decision would be the information received in Moscow and Tehran – and almost certainly passed on to the Syrian ruler – that taking part in the offensive are rebels who underwent training in recent weeks in northern Jordan by US, Czech and Polish officers in tactics for seizing chemical or biological caches and dismantling them.

Russian and Iranian intelligence watchers suspect that elements from all three armies as well as Jordan are present in the rebel assault force, in order to be on the spot when the weapons of mass destruction are captured and appropriate them to forces under NATO command. They must beat Jabhat al-Nusra’s fighting brigades to this target, although at this moment, the jihadis are ahead of the race.

The battle for al Safira has brought US and NATO into direct intervention in Syrian hostilities. Western intelligence services estimate that even if Assad removed some of the banned weapons from this complex, large quantities remain and must be prevented from reaching the wrong hands.

Russian warships sail for Syria, large anti-submarine ship for waters near Iran http://www.debka.com/article/22623/Russian-warships-sail-for-Syria-large-anti-submarine-ship-for-watersnear-Iran Dec 18, 2012 Russian warships set out Tuesday, Dec. 18, for two Middle East flashpoint destinations: Naval sources in Moscow reported that two assault ships, a tanker and an escort vessel were detached from the Baltic Fleet and are sailing for the Syrian port of Tartus – possibly to evacuate Russian citizens. A second naval group led by Russia’s largest anti-submarine vessel, the Severomorsk, is on its way to the Gulfs of Aden and Oman close to the Persian Gulf and Iran.

The ships destined for Syria are the Russian fleet’s two largest amphibious assault vessels, the Kaliningrad and the Alexander Shabalin, which is a cruiser converted to a guided missile frigate renamed Yaroslav the Wise, the SB-921 rescue and tug ship, and the Lena military tanker.

Russian military sources say this flotilla will relieve the Black Sea Fleet’s task force vessels deployed off the Syrian coast since November.

The Severomorsk heading for waters near the Persian Gulf is escorted by ships which Russian sources have not named as well as a military tanker and a supply and rescue ship.

DEBKAfile’s military and Moscow sources report that, while the Russians are undoubtedly concerned with the fate of the 20,000 Russian nationals remaining in war-torn Syria, the type of warships dispatched to Tartus do not fit the description of evacuation craft. They look more like a major Russian naval buildup opposite the Syrian coast.

For one thing, they are larger and more formidable than the Black Sea fleet ships they are relieving: the medium, amphibious assault ships, the Novocherkassk and Saratov, each of which carries 250 marines. The new arrivals each carry 520 marines and 25 amphibious tanks.

For another, if it becomes necessary to evacuate large numbers of Russian refugees in a hurry, they are likely to be lifted out by air rather than by sea. Large transports are already on hand, touching down almost daily at Damascus and Aleppo airports with a continuous supply of weapons, ammunition and spare parts for replenishing the army loyal to Bashar Assad.

The Russian aircraft are practically the only foreign flights visiting the two beleaguered Syrian airports. While keeping Assad’s army in essential supplies, Moscow is also maintaining a constant presence there against the contingency of having to fly large numbers of Russian civilians out of the country.

DEBKAfile’s sources add that, while some Western quarters depict Russia’s military steps as actuated by the expectation of Assad’s imminent fall, Middle East military and Western intelligence sources see them rather as preparation for the international commotion and fallout arising from the introduction of chemical warfare to the Syrian conflict by the Syrian army or the insurgents.

Both Washington and Moscow calculate that Assad may be in a race against certain rebel units, which are making a dash to lay hands on some of Syria’s biggest chemical and biological weapons stores.

One high-placed Western military source told DEBKAfile Tuesday: “We can no longer be certain which side will use chemical weapons first - the Syrian army or the rebels – or even against whom: targets inside Syria or across its borders.”

According to this source, the countries abutting on Syria are deep in discreet though comprehensive military preparations in anticipation of three potential perils: 1. A chemical weapons attack on Turkey, Jordan or Israel and US military facilities present in those countries; 2. The outbreak of chemical warfare between the Syrian army and rebels - both armed with poisonsous substances;

3. Either of those contingencies if close would trigger rapid military action - both by combined Western-Arab forces and Israel - to get hold of Syria’s chemical or biological weapons of mass destruction and put them out of reach of Assad’s army and rebel units alike.

Putin Eyes Middle East in Balance of Power http://www.omegaletter.com/articles/articles.asp?ArticleID=7504 Dec 17, 2012 Perhaps sanity has prevailed as Israel chose Australian oil producer Woodside over Russia’s bid to take-over 30% of the Leviathan natural gas exploration site just off Israel’s coast.

A Russian interest in the largest natural gas discovery in the eastern Mediterranean would have certainly tipped the balance of power towards the Russians.

Not only would Russia have tightened it two-fisted control over Europe’s energy market it would have gained an important new supply it will eventually needs to exercise its keen interest in the Arab world’s supply of energy.

But, don’t count out Russia’s strategy to dominate oil-power in the middle east – or the world’s for that matter. Vladimir Putin owns the number-one publicly traded oil producer in the world - Rosneft. The company is looking to produce more than 4 million barrels per day -- more than that of Exxon Mobil.

According to Casey Research oil analyst, Marin Katusa, Putin has a master's thesis up his sleeve. What Putin is looking for is to reestablish Russia as a major world power through the control of natural resources. So far he has already done a good job, buying up and maintaining a strangle-hold on Europe's energy and has recently gained significant control in many other major world markets – right under the industry’s nose.

And, it’s in Arab resources he is most interested.

“It is true that a secular Russia and an Islamist Arab state would not be a match exactly made in heaven, but a common opponent (the United States) and a common goal (more revenues for the country's coffers through higher oil prices) could very well bring them together in a marriage of convenience, says Katusa.

In this thesis, Putin goes all in with the Arab oil-producing countries giving him control of over 40% of the world's oil supply, a figure that would be increased to more than half of all the oil production in the world if the rest of OPEC tagged along.

Katusa continues, “A unified front of Arab countries combined with the wiles of Vladimir Putin would create an unprecedented level of volatility in the energy markets.”

It could also recast how the world settles oil transactions and harm the reserve currency status the U.S. Dollar now enjoys while potentially causing a critical blow to the U.S. at a time when the Fed is addicted to a continuous money-printing debt binge.

But why would the Arabs suddenly want to cozy-up to Russia? Because much of the traditional Arab oil producers are running out of their own natural gas supplies and need their output for their own use at home.

That leaves much of the middle east having to import their gas supplies from outside sources (Russia and Israel) – especially Egypt.

This substantially re-positions the geo-politics of oil power in the middle east for the foreseeable future.

Take Egypt for example. Despite intense opposition, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi rescinded the decrees he issued on November 22, wherein he expanded his powers and protected himself from all judicial oversight. Though this looks like a concession that will defuse the current political tension in Egypt, Morsi has already done what he needed to do: put forth a draft constitution that is heavily influenced by his Islamist allies.

No matter the outcome, Morsi is willing to twist the rules in order to benefit himself. And, even if he does not succeed this time, he will try again to monopolize the power in Egypt and reassert Egypt's place in the Middle East.

He’ll need the Russians on his side to do it.

Once Morsi becomes the new Mubarak of Egypt, he will undoubtedly begin pushing for more Islamist presence throughout the Middle East. The Islamists would seek to topple the governments in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the other countries in the Persian Gulf and replace them with Islamist regimes. These governments would be vehemently anti-Israel and also hostile towards Israel's biggest ally - the United States.

So Putin and his Islamist allies will need those Israeli gas riches eventually.

Who stands to gain the most from the establishment of an Islamist, anti-US, pan-Arab state?

I believe it is Russian President Vladimir Putin.