APPLICATIONS IN DATA MINING Dawn L. Yilmaz Data Scientist, Television & Film VR Researcher & Content Creator
INTRODUCTION Dancing with the Stars (DWTS) is a U.S. reality format game show. On the show, celebrities team up with professional dancers and compete against each other in weekly elimination rounds. The show is based on the popular British series "Strictly Come Dancing“ and is entering its 24th season later this year.
Description of the Domain Formulation of the Problem Scorecard Descriptive Statistics Numerical Summaries Visualizations And the Winner is ‌?
DESCRIPTION OF THE DOMAIN Our goal is to predict the winners of the upcoming season of Dancing with the Stars. There are a number of predictive data mining functionalities that can be applied to the data to perform induction for the of dissemination of interesting patterns. This report details a weighted index value model based on 36 underlying points of interest. The model uses DWTS historical and categorical data available on the web to mine and forecast a future DWTS winner.
In this season of all-stars, 10 dance teams will face off for the highly coveted Mirror-ball Trophy.
2016-2017 All-Star Dance Teams 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
Lindsay Arnold Cusick & Emmitt Smith Keoikantse "Keo" Motsepe & Nicole Scherzinger Karina Smirnoff & Hines Ward Emma Louise Slater & Donald Driver Sharna May Burgess & Alfonso Lincoln Ribeiro Valentin "Val" Chmerkovskiy & Kristi Tsuya Yamaguchi Cheryl Stephanie Burke & Apolo Anton Ohno Derek Hough & Rumer Glenn Willis Mark Alexander Ballas, Jr. & Bindi Sue Irwin Witney Capri Carson McAllister & J.R. Martinez
Professional Dancers (PD)
Lindsay Arnold Cusick Mark Alexander Ballas, Jr. Sharna May Burgess Valentin "Val" Chmerkovskiy Witney Capri Carson McAllister
Cheryl Stephanie Burke Derek Hough Emma Louise Slater Karina Smirnoff Keoikantse "Keo" Motsepe
Celebrity Contestants (PD)
Kristi Tsuya Yamaguchi Apolo Anton Ohno Rumer Glenn Willis Bindi Sue Irwin J.R. Martinez
Emmitt Smith Nicole Scherzinger Hines Ward Donald Driver Alfonso Lincoln Ribeiro
FORMULATION OF THE PROBLEM
DANCECARD & SCORECARD • First Level Algorithm: Dance Score Card • Team Rank = Celebrity Contestant Composite Score + Professional Dancer Composite Score • Celebrity Contestant Composite Score = Personal Score + Seasonal Score • Professional Dancer Composite Score = Personal Score + Performance Score + Seasonal Score
• Second Level Algorithm: Final Score Card • Team Rank Value, • Team Value Against Other Opponents, • Whether the Professional Dancer won in the past, and • the number of wins in previous seasons.
FLOWCHART
DM TOOLS For this report, Excel was the primary tool used. A number of formulas were used, including, but not limited to; =STDEV =CORREL =AVERAGE =RANK.AVG =SUMPRODUCT =MAX / =MIN / =SUM Tableau was used to look at the data in various ways and for clustering, which was manually rolled into the final results.
Numerical Summaries
Descriptive Statistics
Central Tendencies, Mean, Median, Mode, Skewness, Standard Deviation, Histograms and Confidence Levels.
CELEBRITY CONTESTANT STATS
PROFESSIONAL DANCER STATS
THE MOST WINS 1. Derek Hough 2. Mark Alexander Ballas, Jr. 3. "Val" Chmerkovskiy
MOST TOP 2 / TOP 3 1. Lindsay Arnold Cusick 2. Mark Alexander Ballas, Jr. 3. Sharna May Burgess
THE MOST IMMUNITIES 1. Lindsay Arnold Cusick 2. Sharna May Burgess 3. Witney Capri Carson McAllister
MOST SAFES 1. Derek Hough 2. Cheryl Stephanie Burke 3. Mark Alexander Ballas, Jr.
HIGHEST COMPOSITE NOT ELIMINATED (NE) 1. Keoikantse "Keo" Motsepe 2. Emma Louise Slater 3. Mark Alexander Ballas, Jr.
MOST # PERFORMANCES 1. Derek Hough 2. Cheryl Stephanie Burke 3. Mark Alexander Ballas, Jr.
CORRELATION More Appearances = More Wins
Dancers who had appeared on the show for more seasons and those who had more performances had a greater chance of winning.
Playing it Safe
Dancer’s with a high percentage of “no elimination” and “safe” rankings, have a greater their chance to win the upcoming season. The “safe” ranking is the highest correlated attribute.
Top 3 Track Record
Dancers with a history of making it into the top 3 for a previous season have a stronger chance to win.
LAST TO BE CALLED SAFE
MOST BOTTOM 2 OR 3
MOST ELIMINATIONS
1. Emma Louise Slater 2. Witney Capri Carson McAllister 3. Keoikantse "Keo" Motsepe
1. Karina Smirnoff 2. Lindsay Arnold Cusick 3. Cheryl Stephanie Burke
1. Keoikantse "Keo" Motsepe 2. Emma Louise Slater 3. Karina Smirnoff
EXPERT ADVICE: GIL CHARLESTON Weights were created after consulting, actor and producer, Gil Charleston, who served as our DWTS expert. Gil offered his personal and qualitative perspectives. • • •
Dance Background Performer (Television, Theatre, Film) Fan of Show
The winner has a… …30% …40% …50% …50%
chance chance chance chance
of of of of
having prior dance training. being a female. being married. being an athlete.
PROFESSIONAL DANCER RANKINGS RANK
DANCER
SCORE
1
Derek Hough
43.5
2
Cheryl Stephanie Burke
42.0
3
Mark Alexander Ballas, Jr.
38.0
4
Karina Smirnoff
33.0
5
Valentin "Val" Chmerkovskiy
9.5
6
Sharna May Burgess
1.5
7
Witney Capri Carson McAllister
-8.0
8
Emma Louise Slater
-19.5
9
Keoikantse "Keo" Motsepe
-24.0
Lindsay Arnold Cusick
-28.0
10
The winner has a… …30% …40% …50% …50%
chance chance chance chance
of of of of
having prior dance training. being a female. being married. being an athlete.
CELEBRITY CONTESTANT RANKINGS RANK
DANCER
SCORE
1
Emmitt Smith
35.0
2
Nicole Scherzinger
15.3
3
Hines Ward
14.8
4
Alfonso Lincoln Ribeiro
9.8
5
Donald Driver
7.3
6
Kristi Tsuya Yamaguchi
7.0
7
Apolo Anton Ohno
3.7
8
J.R. Martinez
-4.5
9
Bindi Sue Irwin
-11.0
Rumer Glenn Mills
-12.8
10
WEIGHT ADJUSTMENT NOTES 3 Rank Levels • Age • Broken down into 3 categories • Number of stars faced in the past season • 11, 12, or13 • Popularity • 3 tier Klout ranking • Estimates used for Bindi and J. R. 2 Rank Levels • Number of competition weeks • 10 vs 11 • Viewer Interest • Increase vs decrease
FINAL SCORECARD RESULTS
AND THE WINNER IS…?!
Top 3 All-Star Dance Team Predictions 1. 2. 3.
Derek Hough & Rumer Glenn Willis Cheryl Stephanie Burke & Apolo Anton Ohno Karina Smirnoff & Hines Ward
REFERENCES • American Broadcasting Company (ABC). (n.d.). Dancing with the Stars TV Show. Retrieved January 25, 2017, from http://abc.go.com/shows/dancing-with-the-stars • Graettinger, D. (2011). Dancing with the Stats (Discovery Corps Inc., Ed.). Retrieved January 25, 2017, from http://www.discoverycorpsinc.com/dancing-with-the-stats/ • Han, J., Kamber, M., & Pei, J. (2012). Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques (3rd ed.). Amsterdam: Elsevier/Morgan Kaufmann. Retrieved January 2, 2017, from http://ce.safaribooksonline.com/book/databases/data-warehouses/9780123814791/ • Wikipedia. (n.d.). Dancing with the Stars (U.S. TV series). Retrieved January 31, 2017, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dancing_with_the_Stars_(U.S._TV_series)