DEC Coronavirus 2020 Appeal - Real Time Response Review - Country report Yemen
2. 2.1.
MAIN FINDINGS KEY QUESTION 1 / IMPACTS
2.1.1. HEALTH IMPACTS
The pandemic’s impact on Yemen was expected to be severe. Projected figures, based on models derived
from China and Europe initially predicted some 85,000 virus deaths, approaching the number reported
killed during the country’s ongoing armed conflict 7.
Chart 2 – Confirmed cases and deaths in Yemen
The total number of reported and confirmed deaths (605 deaths for 2,077 confirmed cases on 28 November 2020, WHO) is far below predictions. Measures taken by the authorities and support from aid
actors in disseminating prevention messages probably helped to contain the outbreak. But the lack of
data from the Northern part of the country, where the authorities did not report any cases, as well as the
lack of accurate country-wide reporting, shortages in testing, and barriers to accessing healthcare have
certainly led to underreporting of the Covid-19 caseload.
The case fatality rate is among the highest in the world (almost 30%), nearly four times higher than the global average. But if more cases were reported, the ratio would proportionally decrease. This ratio can
also be explained by the fact that people are delaying seeking treatment until their condition is critical because of fear of stigma, difficulties in accessing treatment centres, and the perceived risks of seeking care.
A study aiming to quantify excess mortality in Aden Governorate using geospatial analysis techniques on cemeteries 8 estimated around 1,500 excess burials from April to July, and 2,120 up to 19 September,
corresponding to a peak weekly increase of 230% from the counterfactual (the same period in previous
years). The actual figures of the Covid-19 caseload (deaths and cases) are therefore probably much higher than the figures that have been reported.
ACAPS. COVID-19 -Impact on Yemen. (2020). Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Aden governorate, Yemen: a geospatial and statistical analysis, Koum-Besson et al., London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. 7 8
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