editor-in-chief
The power of a King lies in his mighty arms… Security of the citizens at peace time is very important because State is the only saviour of the men and women who get affected only because of the negligence of the State.
—Chanakya
DSA is as much yours, as it is ours!
In the days when communication, information or entertainment was limited to the radio or the telegraph the country would, so to say, come to a standstill during the budget presentation exercise. It was the single biggest annual political event of the calendar. It is still the biggest political happening, even as the methods of transmitting information don’t now compel the country to come to a standstill. No other annual political experience compares for the simple reason that none encapsulate all of the government’s policies and vision, in one document, in a single episode. The budget presentation drill is also the only occasion where the Finance Minister will take spotlight and space away from the Prime Minister or any other political leader. Centre stage belongs to the Finance Minister, by law, protocol, and procedure. Therefore, when it comes to a Finance Minister with experience as vast as Shri Pranab Mukherjee the event demands greater attention. In the current dispensation there is none who can match the sheer scale of political experience, as also governance, as the Finance Minister can and carries with him. His budget, for that reason, merits serious attention. Coming as it does, from the most experienced political personality in the cabinet and being the singularly important political statement of the year, the budget of Shri Pranab Mukherjee urges intense consideration. And more so when it comes to matters of defence and security. For in the past more than a decade no issues have taken on a more important role in daily life than have the twins of defence and security. As India opened up economically and globalised, so did its exposure to threats. Incidents of terrorism, territorial invasion, as well as subversion of the State, have all increased exponentially. Gone is the tranquillity and innocence of urban India. Daily pedestrian life is more vulnerable to politically motivated violence than it has ever been in Indian history. The political response, therefore, to this phenomenon is critical in allaying the fears of citizens, as well as messaging the dodgy. Daily military or police actions are the routine but it is the political statement that is of greater concern. And that political statement is carried within the text of the budget, in that it is the overt manifestation of the government’s priorities. It declares and sheds light, on the defence and security vision of the government. Unlike, say, that of the People’s Republic of China, whose annual defence budget clouds more than it uncovers, thus causing global disquiet. The reverse is the case of India or other functioning democracies, where the processes dictate transparency. But what are of greater import are the declarations within the defence and security budget. What farsightedness does it contain, its intention to spend, how it is to be expended, how much and most importantly, when it is to be paid up. The duration of payment is as important as the drawn up plans. For that is the true testimony of good shopping.
manvendra singh
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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new responsibilities NEW CHALLENGES
publisher’s view
defence budget by defence experts Vol 1 Issue 7
April 2010
chairman shyam sunder publisher & ceo pawan agrawal editor-in-chief manvendra singh director shishir bhushan corporate consultant k j singh art consultant divya gupta central saint martins college of art & design, university of arts, london corporate communications monika kanchan communications sweta sehgal correspondent rohit srivastava correspondent (europe) dominika cosic creative vipin choudhary production dilshad & dabeer admin. and coordination shalini sachdeva photographers subhash, deepak circulation & distribution prem gupta ranjeet, sandeep, vikram systems vikas e-mail: (first name)@dsalert.org info: info@dsalert.org articles: articles@dsalert.org subscription: subscription@dsalert.org online edition: online@dsalert.org advertisement: advt@dsalert.org editorial & business office 4/19 asaf ali road new delhi-110002, india t: +91-011-23243999, 23287999 f: +91-11-23259666 e: info@dsalert.org www.dsalert.org
disclaimer all rights reserved. reproduction and translation in any language in whole or in part by any means without permission from Defence And Security Alert is prohibited. opinions expressed are those of the individual writers and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher and / or editors. all disputes are subject to jurisdiction of delhi courts.
(People who are proficient in the relevant job should do the work as per their expertise). We at DSA are happy to see Indians taking keen interest in affairs military. A little concerned too. Happy because Indians are becoming Aware and Alert about defence and security issues. And concerned because they have started questioning the wisdom of those responsible for our defence and security. This brings India’s Defence Budget 2010 under scrutiny. It seems that the Defence Budgets planned in the last few years have become a ritual for those responsible for Budget formulation. The provisions made in the last budgets and in the year 2010-2011 have little correlation with modern day reality. When we compare our Defence Budget with that of the neighbouring countries I feel that it is not framed by experts having complete idea of Defence needs as of today and tomorrow. I feel that framing the Defence Budget is the most important component of security in today’s situation where we must have ample provision for inhouse Research and Development and expeditious procurement of the best technology in the world to face any threat at our borders and within the borders.
Team DSA Welcomes New Chief of Army Staff ! General V. K. Singh takes over on 31st of March charge of Chief of Staff of Indian Army, after forty years of chequered career as Infantry officer in Indian Army. He served for two years as GOC - in - C of Eastern command. An alumnus of Defence Services Staff College, Wellington and US Army War College, Carlisle, he joined 2 RAJPUT (KALI CHINDI) on 14 June 1970. We are sure his highly regarded leadership will keep army on the path of excellence and will successfully counter the challenges emerging from within and outside the nation. Indian army under his stewardship will create new benchmarks for highest professionalism and dedication in the service of the nation. Our heartiest congratulations and best wishes for an eventful and rewarding tenure!
For example: How much provision has been made in the Defence Budget for the various Armed Forces to tackle the situations occurring at times within the borders? Had the government made any provision in the Defence Budget to provide the best equipmnent to the Armed Forces to handle the terrorist attacks, explosions in important establishments, and human bombs, etc. which, considering their inherent expertise, has become part and parcel of their work routine? Consider also the hypothetical situation of a nuclear, biological or chemical attack that has become an ever present danger. There is hardly any such provision. Will whatever is provided in the Defence Budget contribute to raising the morale of the fighting man be it in the role of defender of the perimeter of the Motherland or against terrorists employed as proxies by dangerous neighbours? I personally feel that our government should seriously revamp the entire system of Defence budgeting by the next year to ensure the security of its people. I wish that government should involve our retired senior defence personnel who have the knowledge and expertise in military acquisitions in the budgeting process.
stop press
The response we received for our last issue on Afghanistan was a matter of great honour for team DSA. We are moving ahead with more dedication towards the Defence and Security genre and will be providing more such special issues in the future. Team DSA is encouraged by the generous applause and support received and I personally request the readers to give their free and frank opinions on every issue so that we may keep improving the standard of your DSA. On behalf of team DSA I welcome Mr. Prem Gupta as head circulation and distribution. I am sure under his guidance and with his long experience in the trade, DSA will scale new heights in circulation and distribution. Jai Hind!
pawan agrawal P.S. We always endeavour to cover and highlight every topic from all possible perspectives to give a complete and composite picture of every story we carry. But for this Defence Budget Special we are unable to include the Air Force perspective due to unfortunate and unavoidable circumstances. I wish to assure our dear readers that we will certainly carry the article on defence budget (Air Force) at the earliest opportunity.
defence and security alert is printed, published and owned by pawan agrawal and printed at graphic world, 1686, kucha dakhini rai, darya ganj, new delhi-110002 and published at 4/19 asaf ali road, new delhi (india). editor: manvendra singh
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WELCOME !
“YO YASMIN KARMINI KUSHLASTAM TASMINNE VA YOJYET” - Chanakya
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
Light Combat Helicopter completes first test flight successfully Indian effort in indigenisation went one step ahead with the success of the maiden test flight of the light combat helicopter developed by the government owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited on 29 March. The combat helicopters are very complicated machines and manufacturing them is a technological milestone in aviation and avionics. The test flight of technological Demonstrator (TD-1) lasted for 20 minutes. The aircraft performed clockwise and anti-clockwise spin, hovered motionless at a point, circled airport four times. The LCH is powered by Shakti engines employed in Advanced Light Helicopter Dhruv. LCH like most combat helicopters will be twin pilot, one for weapons and navigation and the other for flying. Indian forces require around 200 combat helicopters for ground support and anti-tank role. The LCH is going to be armed with laser guided anti-tank missiles and ground attack rockets.
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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contents
Vol 1 Issue 7
ISSUE
APRIL
contents
DEFENCE BUDGET AND INDUSTRY
2010
April 2010
A R T I C L E S
defence and security: Chanakya’s vision Air Marshal (Retd.) Satish Inamdar
defence procurement: industry perspective
10 13
Dr. Vivek Lall
systemic flaws: plaguing procurement
16
Deba R.Mohanty
add muscle to the arms!
22
Lt.Gen. (Retd.) V.K. Chopra
maritime mission
28
Cmde. (Retd.) Ranjit B. Rai
why Indian defence budgets disappoint?
T-50
34
Dr. Harsh V. Pant
budgeting protection
38
Manvendra Singh
national defence university
F E A T U R E S
Rohit Srivastava
cyber terrorism DRDO: self-reliance in armaments
72
44
security products
76
54
NEWS analysis
41
Brig. (Retd.) Dr. Anil Sharma
joint venture as catalyst Rohit Srivastava
Indo-Russian accord: rock-solid partnership
70
Om
K.Subrahmanyam
defence budgeting and planning
68
Sweta Sehgal
78
Rohit Srivastava
58
Dr. Nivedita Das Kundu
the ulfa conundrum Lt.Gen. (Retd.) Arvind Sharma
63 for online edition of Defence And Security Alert (DSA) log on to: www.dsalert.org
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April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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I went through the Afghanistan issue of DSA carefully. It is lucid, brilliant, well thought out and ably presented. The US is once again unable to grasp the local conditions and gradually losing space to Taliban. The authors have placed this ongoing duel with substantive arguments and analysis. Moreover, the problems of governance, institution building and the role of Pakistan as well as Afghan refugees in Pakistan is well covered. The creative and editorial team deserves appreciation for the wonderful job they have done. Let me congratulate you very heartily on this issue of DSA. I know that with your clarity of mind you are going to do brilliant work ahead. I feel proud of you and feel like staying associated with bright, creative and young people like you. With best wishes,
Sanjeev (Dr Sanjeev Bhadauria) Associate Professor Dept. of Defence & Strategic Studies Allahabad Central University Allahabad-211002
alert curity e & se defenc ad ro i al af ia 4/19 as 02, ind hi-1100 new del
“The Defence and Security Alert� needs no introduction as a magazine covering matters military. Within a short period of making a debut, the monthly magazine has etched a place for itself in the hearts and minds of those who matter. An average reader as well as an analyst look for its emergence out of the press and miss it if the delivery is delayed for one reason or the other. The Defence and Security experts do not wait for the night to fall to read the new number in the cosy comfort of the bed. The issue is carried to the work place and is brought back home for the remaining articles to be read after dinner. A voracious reader wishes the DSA had more reading material between the cover pages. The march 2010 Number has special material to write home about. It is all on Afghanistan. In the six months of its existence the Defence and Security Alert has published a Special Issue for the first time. And believe me when I say that both the Editor-in-Chief, Manvendra Singh and the publisher, Pawan Agrawal will receive so many bouquets for their planning, preparation and publishing that both friend and foe in the publishing business will go green with envy. The readers are indeed lucky to be benefited by writings of eminent university professors, experienced army officers and historians of both Indian and foreign origin. The publisher must have burnt the midnight oil looking for their addresses and convincing them why they should write for a defence magazine of six months standing and that too on Afghanistan where the military situation is fluid and the political situation is beyond comprehension. The Americans are in a quagmire and the Taliban are shooting at one another to go up a few notches in the estimation of the Ulema. President Obama has already put into practice his new policy of Surge and Quit by ordering deployment of 30,000 additional troops training the Afghan Army to take over and quitting for good. The bad situation is turned worse by Pakistan that is a part of the problem but poses as a trouble shooter. The Special Number of the Defence and Security Alert has done justice to those complex issues by bringing problems with solutions to the readers. Old and experienced Afghanistan hands like Dr Vedpratap Vaidik and military analysts like Lt. Gen. R. Sawhney and Brig. Rahul Bhosle, not forgetting Prof Kalim Bahadur deserve a special mention for their simple treatment of complex subject that they were asked to tackle. All said and done, any avid reader of defence subjects would like to become a permanent subscriber of this magazine rather than run to news stand every month for his or her copy. I wish the magazine a roaring success in months to come and suggest that more special numbers on China, Pakistan, Nepal and so on be brought out for the benefit of both the common readers and analysts.
Brig. (Retd.) Chitranjan S. Sawant NOIDA
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April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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affairs military TROOPS MANAGEMENT
Defence and Security: Air Marshal (Retd.) Satish Inamdar
Chanakya’s
vision
C Chanakya’s greatness lies in that he remains all things to all persons millennia after he consummated th h his sojourn in India’s golden era. Here is one of the au august sage’s perceptions that is doing the rounds in recent times that the Mauryan soldier was the gr great facilitator of nation-building. It is juxtaposed w with his dire prediction that the empire would co collapse if it ignored the needs of the soldier. This, of course, is in the modern-day context of the Si Sixth Pay Commission. Powers that be should heed C Chanakya’s plea “I beseech you to take instant note an and act with uncommon dispatch to address the so soldier’s anxiety”!
T
he Mauryan soldier does not himself the Royal treasuries enrich nor does he the Royal granaries fill. He does not himself carry out trade and commerce nor produce scholars, thinkers, littérateurs, artistes, artisans, sculptors, architects, craftsmen, doctors and administrators. He does not himself build roads and ramparts nor dig wells and reservoirs. He does not himself write poetry and plays, paint or sculpt, nor delve in metaphysics, arts and sciences.
and markets his produce unafraid of pillage and plunder;
“He does not do any of this directly as he is neither gifted, trained nor mandated to do so.
t ćF UVUPS (acharya), the mentor (guru) and the priest (purohit) teach and preach in tranquillity;
Enabler
t ćF TBHFT (rishis, munis, and tapaswees) meditate and undertake penance in wordless silence;
“The soldier only and merely ensures that: t ćF UBY USJCVUF BOE SFWFOVF DPMMFDUPST travel far and wide unharmed and return safely; t ćF GBSNFS UJMMT HSPXT IBSWFTUT TUPSFT
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t ćF USBEFS NFSDIBOU BOE NPOFZMFOEFS function and travel across the length and breadth of the realm unmolested; t ćF TBWBOU TDVMQUPS QBJOUFS NBFTUSP and master create works of art, literature, philosophy, astronomy and astrology in peace and quietude; t ćF BSDIJUFDU EFTJHOT BOE CVJMET IJT vaastus without tension;
t ćF EPDUPS (vaidyaraja) tends to the ill and the infirm well, adds to the pharmacopoeia, discovers new herbs and invents new medical formulations
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
undisturbed; t ćF NBTPO UIF CSJDLMBZFS UIF BSUJTBO the weaver, the tailor, the jeweller, the potter, the carpenter, the cobbler, the cowherd (gopaala) and the smith work unhindered; t ćF NPUIFS XJGF BOE HPWFSOFTT HP about their chores and bring up children in harmony and tranquillity; t ćF BHFE BOE UIF EJTBCMFE BSF XFMM taken care of, tended to and are able to fade away gracefully and with dignity; cattle graze freely without being lifted or harmed by miscreants. “He is thus the very basis and silent, barely visible cornerstone of our fame, culture, physical well being and prosperity; in short, of the entire nation-building activity. He does not perform any of these chores himself directly: he enables the rest of us to perform these without let, hindrance or
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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affairs military TROOPS MANAGEMENT worry (nirbhheek and nishchinta).
Deterrent “Our military sinews, on the other hand, lend credibility to our pronouncements of adherence to good Dharma, our goodwill, amiability and peaceful intentions towards all our neighbour nations (sarve bhavantu sukhinaha, sarve santu niramayaha‌) as also those far away and beyond. These also serve as a powerful deterrent against military misadventure by any one of them against us. g
buying strategy OFFSET GUIDELINES
I beseech you to take instant note and act with uncommon dispatch to address the soldier’s anxiety. It could be on account of harsh living conditions, inequitable material compensation or asymmetric Court or societal dispensations affecting either his self respect or his family’s material welfare, or both
“If any in your household, in your Council or among your courtiers is / are responsible for allowing matters to come to such a pass, punish him / UIFN FYFNQMBSJMZ XJUIPVU MPTT PG UJNF and send him / them to serve for four cycles of seasons (Chaturrutuchakre) alongside the soldiers, on the border outposts. If they perish, those would be their just desserts. If they survive, they will return wiser and wizened, more responsive to and with greater empathy for the soldier’s cause.
Industry is one of the major stakeholders in Indian defence procurement apparatus. Their views are significant in making a better strategy for future procurement. It’s time to address their concerns.
Chief ’s role
“If Pataliputra reposes each night in peaceful comfort, O King, it is so because she is secure in the belief that the distant borders of Magadha are inviolate and the interiors are safe and secure, thanks to the mighty Mauryan Army constantly patrolling and standing vigil with naked swords and eyes peeled for action (animish netre), day and night (ratrau-divase), in weather fair and foul, dawn-to-dusk-todawn (ashtau prahare), quite unmindful of personal discomfort and hardship, loss of life and limb, separation from the family, all through the year, year after year (warsha nu warshe).
Guarantor “While the Magadha citizenry endeavours to make the State prosper and flourish, the Mauryan soldier guarantees that the State DPOUJOVFT UP FYJTU )F JT UIF TJMFOU ‘sine qua non’ PG PVS WFSZ CFJOH “To this man, O Rajadhiraja, you owe a debt for that very guarantee which is the WJUBM LFZ TUPOF PG PVS OBUJPOIPPE BSDI Please, therefore, see to it, suo motto, that you are constantly alive and sensitive to the soldier’s legitimate dues in every form and respect, be those his needs or his wants, including his place in the social order. Do thereafter (tadanantara) ensure that he receives these in time or preferably ahead of time, in full measure, for he is NOT likely to ask for them himself! “This is so because before getting so completely wrapped up in his onerous,
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IBSTI BOE FYBMUFE DIBSHF UIF TPMEJFS IBT assumed with good reason that the State, JO SFUVSO GPS IJT FYUSBPSEJOBSZ CVSEFO and services, has freed him from all responsibility towards his own welfare, present and future, as also that of his family back home in the hinterland. He is thus very clear in his mind when deployed at a distant border outpost, fighting lumpen groups within Magadha or when campaigning in far away lands that he need only look out in front for the enemy of the State and concentrate only on his military onus and aim (shatrunjaya), completely free of all temporal worries. This assumption is a holy sacrament and an unwritten covenant that exists between him and the State. “And rightly so!
Response mechanism “If ever things come to a sordid pass, O King, when, on a given day, the Mauryan soldier has to look back over his shoulder (Simhawalokana) prompted by even a single nagging worry about his and his family’s material, physical and social well being, it should cause you and your $PVODJM UIF HSFBUFTU DPODFSO BOE EJTUSFTT I beseech you to take instant note and act with uncommon dispatch to address the TPMEJFS T BOYJFUZ *U DPVME CF PO BDDPVOU of harsh living conditions, inequitable material compensation or asymmetric Court or societal dispensations affecting either his self respect or his family’s material welfare, or both.
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
“If you first learn of your soldiers’ problems and needs from your own trusted informers (gupta doota) and NOT from the Commander-in-Chief (Senapati) himself, relieve him of his charge and retain him not for another day. No matter how good a horseman (Ashwarohi), a swordsman (Khadgaveera), a wrestler (Malla), an archer (Dhanurdhara) or a tactician (Rana neetigya) he is, dismiss him (ardha chandra prayoga) for failing to keep his ear close to the military ground. Dismiss him also for not having the gumption and courage to be the first to UFMM ZPV PG UIF TPMEJFST BOYJFUZ BOE OFFET before the others do.
Defence Procurement:
Industry perspective Dr. Vivek Lall
“ The Senapati owes a downward loyalty and sensitivity to his troops in much the same way and measure as he owes these upwards to you, for this is a unique and age-old essential feature of sound military leadership and an article of faith between UIF USPPQT BOE UIF (FOFSBM “It is my bounden duty to caution you, My Lord, that the day when the Mauryan soldier has to demand his dues or, worse, plead for them, will neither have arrived suddenly, overnight nor in vain. It will also bode ill for Magadha. “For then, on that day, you, My Lord, will IBWF MPTU BMM NPSBM TBODUJPO UP CF ,JOH *U will also mark the beginning of the end of UIF .BVSZBO &NQJSF w The writer, a Fighter Pilot, retired from IAF as Air Marshal in 2003. He has own over 4700 hours on 28 different types of aircraft and commanded No. 7 Squadron (The ‘Battleaxes’).
W
e are all aware of media reporting on the potential for sizeable defence procurements in India. In fact, the nation’s defense modernisation drive will total Rs. 1.41 trillion this year alone, an increase of more than 34 per cent in a single year. And with each procurement, Indian industry stands to beneďŹ t through offset requirements that plough some of those expenditures back into India in the form of manufacturing orders. I would like to offer a few recommendations that may streamline and improve the process to the country’s beneďŹ t. And I will begin with some thoughts about a signiďŹ cant issue creating
some hesitancy among defense aerospace contractors to fully commit to the Indian market. It is the issue of liability, which I will discuss shortly.
Evolving policy The Government of India is to be commended for its Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP), now a dynamic, living policy document. DPP includes an evolving national offset policy designed to bring real beneďŹ ts to India. Revisions so far have made real improvements, beneďŹ ting from past procurement experience and from well-meaning guidance from interested parties. This is a positive step for India and will serve to enhance India’s
position in the global aerospace domain. The DPP’s current offset guidelines promote India’s national industrial objectives through the sustainment and creation of aerospace and defence jobs, acceleration in the maturity of India’s defence technology base, by increasing indigenous capability to build and support defence platforms and by enhancing the global competitiveness of public and private sector ďŹ rms of all sizes. In short, offsets designed as national policy are allowing India’s edgling defense aerospace industry to grow into a global contender. Certainly, the Government of India has been quite deliberate in setting out on this
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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buying strategy OFFSET GUIDELINES self-interested path. Yet, it has not been to the exclusion of the other two major stakeholders in the offset programme. In fact, what has been created is a dynamic “win/win/win” scenario for all three offset partners – the Government itself, the defense contractor and local indigenous Indian industry. The foreign defense contractor “wins” by attaining productivity gains such as cost reduction, faster production and access to market-leading technologies. The local Indian partners “win” by expanding their portfolio of export orders, accessing needed new technology and meeting growth objectives. And of course, the Government of India “wins” by pointing to real economic and industrial growth as a result.
Yet there is always room for improvement, a matter on which even the Government will agree since it is instituting more regular updates. Therefore, some recommendations suggestions follow, beginning with the issue of liability.
Risks involved The current Defence Procurement Procedures are silent regarding the allocation of post delivery risk between the buyer and the seller. Post-delivery product loss has three primary stakeholders. They are the owner / operator of the delivered product, the product manufacturer and the insurer. The aerospace industry and the associated insurance market, has
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historically allocated the post-delivery loss liability to the owner / operator of the product. The principle reason is that the owner / operator has primary care, custody and control of the asset / aircraft and can most directly influence and manage those risks. Special damages are liabilities typically not borne by the Contractor. The potential liability for special damages can be grossly disproportionate to the revenue and earnings received by the Contractor from the sale. Without the appropriate liability exclusions in a contract, the Contractor could be entering into a contract which threatens the financial health of its Corporation far beyond the benefit obtained in a single contract action. Many
Contractors could elect not to bid on contracts when faced with this risk. As a result, the Government of India may not be able to procure the best solutions available at the most competitive pricing from industry. This industry standard has been well established in the commercial and military aerospace industry because it is impossible to assess exposure to such loss and damage, as special damages by their nature are remote, unquantifiable and uninsurable (truly unknown). If the Contractor were required to cover post-delivery product loss liability, it would be forced to procure separate insurance policies to cover the extended exposure. The additional premium cost would then
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
be passed on to the operator, significantly increasing the price of the product. Over time, as many aircraft and systems are procured, the GOI would be paying for multiple insurance policies across industry on multiple contract actions. A reasonable and proportionate limitation of liability in accordance with international norms will have a positive effect on Contractor pricing and will create a more favourable business environment that will induce additional private sector companies into the defence arena. Exclusion of liability for post-delivery product loss and special damages is a common feature in commercial and military contracts in most nations. Industry, therefore, recommends adding
language to the DPP that provides relief in these two areas.
Streamlining offset Now, turning to the offset guidelines in the DPP, I would like to cite two additional areas which I believe are critical to achieving the Government of India’s policy objectives. The first is the need to continue a regular and predictable evolution of the offset guidelines and the second is to structure an organisation responsible for evaluating and implementing the offset programmes. The Ministry of Defence already reviews and considers revisions to the offset policy as part of the now annual DPP review
process. This is an extremely forward thinking step on the part of the Indian Government. I would like to offer some thoughts on how the next round of changes could bring additional enhancements to the DPP. Today, India is poised to greatly improve its indigenous capability and its aerospace domain knowledge. However, to have greater assurance of reaching this goal, India’s offset policy should become more flexible and creatively opportunistic. As part of the “win-win” scenario mentioned above, the regulations and incentive structure should naturally steer defense companies pursuing their own financial rewards with offset proposals that concurrently bring maximum benefit to India’s national industrial policy.
Maximum benefit would be achieved by including the transfer of general domain knowledge such as commercial aerospace work and knowledge transfer activities if it is determined that these activities support the achievement of national industrial policy objectives. The immediate result could open up new and fertile ground upon which India’s aerospace industry can grow and thrive. To further increase the probability of the success of the offset guidelines, it would also be advantageous if the government established a separate body to assume ownership of and responsibility for, the National Industrial Policy. Such an august body would bring consistent
interpretation and implementation of the offset guidelines. Currently, those rules are interpreted on a case-by-case basis by each service branch when large defence purchases trigger the offset requirements. Often, confusion arises because the interpretations differ from branch to branch, from procurement to procurement.
Single regulator However, if only one body existed to interpret and implement the national industrial policy, the resulting predictability would encourage the defence contractor and the military customer to work together from the start to jointly meet the offset guidelines. The guidelines would not vary according to the interpretations of each service and the outcome would be a
consistent national approach to achieving the industrial policy objectives across all offset programmes. Also, having a single authority governing offset related matters will lead defence contractors to a greater understanding of the Government of India’s expectations and would give them a single authority to address offset questions and issues. This would result in offset proposals and programmes aligning more consistently with the industrial policy objectives and lead to reliable success in their implementation.
possible approaches to match and address the new areas of priority. In conclusion, India is poised to become a leading manufacturer and exporter of defence articles. To create the conditions to attain that potential, it will be advisable to manage Indian defence procurements with strong, sensible and flexible offset policies. The Indian MoD has already shown great foresight by introducing progressive provisions such as banking of credits. The Government of India should consider amending its liability laws to reflect commonly-accepted aerospace practices around the world. And it is recommended that the offset guidelines be periodically reviewed to ensure they support the industrial policy objectives and do not
exclude activities that can further those objectives. It is also recommended that a single authority handle all offset related matters. With such steps, I am confident that the MoD will reap the benefits of a vibrant and evolving Defence Procurement Procedure that meets the Government of India’s goal to bring maximum benefits to the country’s industrial base. The writer is Chairman, Defence Committee, ASSOCHAM and Vice President and Country Head of Boeing Integrated Defense Systems in India.
And as the industrial policy matures and new priorities and focus areas are identified, the offset authority can work with the defence contractor to develop
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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defence budget UNSPENT SYNDROME
Deba R Mohanty
Figures don’t tell it, but we are as close to “self reliance” in military hardware as we were when Nehru and Krishna Menon set about trying to rectify things after the Chinese aggression of 1962. Except in cases like the BrahMos missile and the Arihant nuclear submarine we buy obsolescence with gay abandon instead of making the percentage of gross domestic product investment in military research and development suggested several decades ago. Government mandarins say we will pour more money for military acquisitions; they do and it goes straight down the drain - into alien treasuries.
systemic flaws: 16
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
plaguing procurement April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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defence budget UNSPENT SYNDROME Afghan imbroglio
I
ndian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee presented the Union Budget for the year 2010-11 on 26 February 2010. The total budgetary estimates of Central government has been pegged at Rs. 11,08,749 crore – an increase of 8.6 per cent from last year. The plan and non-plan expenditure in Budget Estimates 2010-11 at Rs. 3,73,092 crore and Rs. 7,35,651 crore respectively. There is a 15 per cent increase in plan expenditure, while the increase in non-plan expenditure is only 6 per cent over the Budget Estimates of 2009-10. The fiscal deficit has come down to 5.5 per cent of gross domestic product as against a 6.9 per cent during the preceding year. Pranab babu has got a pat from everybody, except from members of opposition parties and sections of the media, for a reasonable job done.
Damned statistics Pranab babu has, however, been chided for a marginal increase in defence expenditure. At a time when the Defence Minister was bragging about India’s purchasing capability during his engagements at the Defence Exhibition (Def Expo was held in New Delhi from 15 to 18 February 2010) and elsewhere, a modest increase in defence expenditure has apparently sealed his mouth as he declined to comment on his colleague’s budget presentation. Almost all the members of Indian strategic community, bulk of which are retired members of the armed forces or civil bureaucracy, jumped to criticise the defence budget on the ground that it was insufficient and the outcome of such allocations would impinge negatively on India’s military
modernisation efforts.
Military universe Before one analyses the Indian defence budget, it is essential to look at the universe of global military efforts and associated trends witnessed thus far. The global defence expenditure was USD 1.46 trillion in 2008, representing an increase of 4 per cent in real terms compared to 2007 and 45 per cent over the ten year period 1999 – 2008. While the US remained the largest contributor to global defence expenditure, it is interesting to note that regions like North Africa (94 per cent), South America (50 per cent), East Asia (56 per cent), Eastern Europe (174 per cent) and Middle East (56 per cent) registered robust growth in defence expenditure. South Asia and Europe in comparison registered lesser growth than the rest at 41 and 14 per cent respectively. In comparable terms, even though India possesses a million plus armed forces, its per capita expenditure on national defence stands at USD 25 while that of the world stands at USD 217. Similarly, while the world spends about 2.4 per cent of global gross domestic product, India spends less than 2 per cent of its GDP.
India’s place Although India spends more on defence than countries like South Korea or Brazil or Canada, its expenditure is far behind than even its peer competitor like China (USD 85 billion), forget about the US (USD 651 billion excluding expenditure incurred for operational purposes in Iraq and
Afghanistan) which accounts for 42.5 per cent of global expenditure. Even, countries like Saudi Arabia spend more than India, while on-going operations like Iraqi Freedom, Enduring Freedom, Noble Eagle have cumulatively accounted for nearly USD 800 billion over a period of nine years (from 2001–2008)!
From any indicator that one may employ to judge trends in defence expenditure, it can be assumed that India’s efforts in pure monetary terms are not sufficient vis-à-vis its size, economic might, real or perceived threats and most importantly its grand strategic ambitions to play the role of a major player in world affairs
From any indicator that one may employ to judge trends in defence expenditure, it can be assumed that India’s efforts in pure monetary terms are not sufficient vis-à-vis its size, economic might, real or perceived threats and most importantly its grand strategic ambitions to play the role of a major player in world affairs. Let’s take other indicators of military efforts at global levels and contextualize India’s place. India stands at 41st position (Pakistan at 48th and China at 7th) as arms exporter, while the top five arms exporters have exported weapons worth USD 157 billion, which in turn accounts for 74 per cent of the total arms exports between 2001 – 2009. While India has exported arms worth only USD 162 million during this period, China has exported USD 4.8 billion worth of arms, not to mention that the latter’s exports have substantially decreased in comparison to the scenario in the 1980s and 1990s as its emphases have moved toward comprehensive military modernisation aimed at achieving an ‘at par’ position vis-à-vis the US by the 2040s and ‘beyond’ by the 2050s. In terms of arms producing companies, India has only two State-owned companies in the
world’s top 100 companies, while the US has thirty seven. On the import side, however, India has remained in the top five arms recipients for the last ten years, thus suggesting its high level of import dependence. India’s position in resources allocations towards military R&D remains pathetic. India spends only USD 2 billion towards military R&D which is less than two per cent of the total R&D expenditure of nearly USD 140 billion, out of which the US alone accounts for USD 80 billion. Countries like China, South Korea, Japan have substantially increased their R&D expenditure. If all indicators are taken into consideration, then India certainly lags behind many countries in allocations towards national defence, which in turn reflects, at least indirectly, negatively on qualitative aspects of its military preparedness. While this is true considering the fact that India is currently undergoing a large-scale military modernisation phase, allocations of resources ought to be made keeping the same in mind, which would enhance India’s military power. At a time when major powers are inclined towards ‘capability based’ rather than ‘threat based’ military modernisation drive, India cannot afford to stay behind in these seemingly perpetual military efforts that change faster in the contemporary era, thanks primarily to fast paced technology environment and newer additions to security threats especially from non-traditional fronts.
Worrisome trend Allocations for ‘national defence’ (expenses for armed forces, DRDO and Ordnance Factories) has been pegged at Rs. 1,47,344 crore (USD 31.9 billion), a very marginal increase of 3.98 per cent from the previous year. Although marginal, it has nonetheless been increased by a modest 8.13 per cent over the revised estimate for 2009-10.
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However, the capital expenditure, which is devoted towards equipment purchases for force modernisation, has increased from Rs. 47,824 crore (revised 2009-2010) to Rs. 60,000 crore (BE 2010-11), a jump of more than 20 per cent. National defence accounts for 13 per cent of the central government expenditure and if military and security related components of other ministries or departments like the Ministry of Home Affairs, Department of Atomic Energy and Department of Space are taken into consideration, the larger national security considerations actually consume more than 20 per cent of the total expenditure. Does not this necessitate a debate in the Parliament, media or in the academia for the very simple reason that every rupee spent by the government ought to be accounted for? While non-defence sectors attracted most attention in post-budget analyses, national defence did not figure as a matter for discussion in the media, except for sporadic comments and few data that had their origins from the budget papers. This is attributable to two interrelated factors – defence budget has over a period of time been treated as an annual ritualistic exercise and, more importantly, members of Parliament seldom have time or inclination to make an autopsy while members of strategic community, for obvious reasons, tend to extend the establishmentarian arguments outside the purview of the government. The general apathy is not only puzzling but entails a worrisome trend in our country. Almost all analyses thus far published in the media or elsewhere on defence expenditure have justified the rationale for larger allocations purely on the basis of officially released data but seldom probed the qualitative aspects of allocations.
Prudent procurement? India may not be spending too much on national defence, if global data are to be
considered. However, from a domestic perspective, India’s spending seems adequate vis-à-vis its overall capability to spend. It accounts for 13 per cent of its total expenditure, in fact the percentage hovers between 13 to 15 per cent in the last ten years. The percentage has come down this year, thanks primarily to fiscal prudence pursued by the current government. This does not mean that if India needs to spend more, the money will not come. It certainly will. There are instances to justify that revised estimates for both revenue and capital allocations have exceeded budgetary estimates in the past. One of the larger questions related to India’s defence expenditure is: do the allocations complement India’s military modernisation drive? The answer is probably ‘yes’ considering the fact that the current military modernisation programme is largely ‘equipment driven’. Consider this: India’s capital defence expenditure has witnessed 500 per cent increase in the last ten years – from Rs. 12,000 crore in 200001, it has reached Rs. 60,000 crore in 201011. Also consider: since 2002, at least eight multi-billion dollar acquisitions, including USD 4.8 billion Scorpene submarines (to be revised further due to delay in construction activities), USD 2.3 billion Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier (after protracted negotiations), USD 10.4 billion 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft, USD 2.8 billion P-8I maritime surveillance, USD 2.6 billion C-130J Hercules maritime reconnaissance, close to USD 4 billion worth combat helicopters, projected USD 4 billion artillery systems, USD 2.7 billion Mirage upgrade, etc., are already negotiated or at various stages of negotiations. In between, 66 Hawk AJTs and additional 60 Su-30s have also been procured. Coupled with these, military airfield infrastructure modernisation, equipment for net centric warfare and various other programmes
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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defence budget UNSPENT SYNDROME Afghan imbroglio are also underway. Assuming that the government tends to undervalue the worth of large-scale long term acquisition programmes, it may not surprise many if India ends up spending something close to USD 150 - 170 billion in the next ten years, although USD 100 billion is often cited by government sources. Close to Rs. 3,30,000 crore capital expenditure is envisaged by the Finance Commission for the next five years, although analysts find this sum insufficient. If futuristic projections are of any indication, at least twelve squadrons of fourth and fifth generation fighters, four to five squadrons of transport and other varieties of aircraft, a dozen plus frigates and destroyers, two aircraft carriers, several thousands of artillery systems and 1,500 plus heavy and medium tanks, and a host of other items are factored into India’s future inventory.
No transformation! However, if the question is: Have the resources devoted brought signs of enhanced capability or aimed at a quality military transformation? The answer is probably ‘not’. Except for a few frontline systems, bulk of the acquisitions is for replenishment purposes, including the fighter aircraft, frigates and destroyers, artillery systems and heavy tanks. It is now widely acknowledged that at least 50 per cent of the Indian arsenal is obsolete while the Chief of the Army Staff General Deepak Kapoor has admitted that 80 per cent of the tanks are night blind! If this is the scenario not only for the present but also for the medium term future, then is it not a matter of grave concern that by the time the current modernisation programme ends with the inventory full of current acquisitions by 2030, bulk of the systems procured be obsolete again and thus
necessitate further replenishment? Futuristic projected acquisitions like 200 odd T-50s or unspecified numbers of unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned combat aerial vehicles notwithstanding, the challenge of ‘force multiplication’ seems quite formidable, while realistic force transformation necessitates rationalisation of force structure, manpower, adapting to newer military cultural attributes and a host of other aspects.
Systemic flaw A major problem that actually contributes to the larger systemic flaw is non-transparency in budgetary and procurement methods. While specific allocations for broader categories of weapon systems are published, minute details are still not available, which leads not only to further confusion in exact assessments but also produce different figures for different heads. This has led to frustrations among the research scholastic community engaged in national defence issues, most of whom come out with their own assessments, which in turn are seldom verified. Even the government often times adds to the confusion. Consider this: the Defence Minister, in an answer to a parliamentary query, stated that India had signed Rs. 7,500 crore worth of offsets agreements, while the Minister of State for Defence put the figure at Rs. 8,200 crore in his address at the recently concluded Def Expo 2010. Tens of such instances are there in various primary sources, especially the Reports of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence.
Unspent syndrome But, more importantly, it’s the spending ability of the Ministry of Defence which has perpetuated ‘unspent syndrome’ and perhaps prompted the Finance Minister to tighten the purse, even though recommendations of the Thirteenth Finance Commission as well as Standing Committee on Defence are also geared towards the same – rationalise spending,
bring in value for money, more allocations will follow. Close to Rs. 13,000 crore has been sent back to the coffer in the last two years as the Ministry of Defence failed to spend the total allocated money for capital purchases. Some argue that it is the Defence Minister’s obsession with probity that hinders arms acquisitions and thus not only tenders have been cancelled in the past but also modernisation drive has been affected badly. If tenders are cancelled, it is obvious that the modernisation programme would be affected. But, is this the sole reason? Why have some tenders, including one for the artillery and one for the 197 helicopters (both re-tendered again), been cancelled? The problem that most people know but do not avow lies in the institutional mechanisms that execute plans are largely responsible for delays in equipment procurement as well as possible cancellations. Of course, vendors are also to be blamed for this, hence the need for hefty fines for the vendors and punishments for erring officials dealing with procurement matters. Like the Finance Minister cannot be blamed for a marginal increase in allocations, the Defence Minister cannot be blamed for hindering the process of military modernisation.
Institutional mechanisms Problems are too many to be elaborated here. Suffice to place five major issues for contemplation, apart from the issue raised above. First, Indian institutional mechanisms on matters related to national defence are rigidly structured and operate in secrecy. Often times, they do not get a clear directive from the top and hence budgeting becomes a ritual with little scope for innovative execution plans. This needs to change – incremental changes from within through reforms can address this
Acquisition trends – between inadequate domestic military production as well as military technology vis-à-vis direct import – that is not only rising but accounting for more than seventy per cent of the capital budget devoted to meet imports from abroad. This is a serious problem, which despite best efforts from the government in recent times has not been adequately translated into real improvement in self-reliance in defence problem. Although some attempts have been made to address structural changes in the higher defence management, more is required. For example, while institutional mechanisms like defence acquisition council, production, procurement and R&D boards have been established, the entire structure lacks horizontal interactions at all levels. Second, planning (especially the longterm integrated perspective plan) must be carefully crafted in order to make a fine balance between aspirations and reality. A look at the last five years acquisition scenario suggests that most of the weapons procured or in the pipeline are for replenishment purposes rather than force transformation. A well balanced planning, taking into account current and future needs plus reasonably adequate scope for induction of fifth-generation systems, must be factored into. This requires rigorous research, especially outside the confines of the government and healthy generation of debate on such issues by both government sponsored and private research institutions. As most of the funding for such research primarily comes from the government and obviously directed towards government funded institutions, it is high time that both the government as well as private sector go beyond simplistic conventional routes to fund critical research projects on a competitive basis. Third, trends in revenue expenditure suggest that from an average 80 per cent dominance in the defence budget in the 1980s, it had come down to less than 60 per cent in the last few years, but increased to 62 per cent this year. High level of revenue expenditure in Indian case is selfexplanatory. India’s military is still manpower intensive and an effort towards rightsizing the
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military has faced fierce resistance from the armed forces. An attempt was made during the late 1990s when General V. P. Malik tried to reduce the number by 50,000, but subsequent actions have been shelved for long. While a desirable 50 per cent or less revenue expenditure is still being talked about, matching effort in demobilisation or rightsising is nowhere in the picture. This prolongs a desirable modern flexible and mobile fighting force. Again, research based assessments on desirable force structure as well as manpower aspects need to be deliberated by both government sponsored and private institutions.
Overdependence on imports Fourth, a closer look would also reveal the growing gap in military acquisition trends – between inadequate domestic military production as well as military technology vis-à-vis direct import – that is not only rising but accounting for more than seventy per cent of the capital budget devoted to meet imports from abroad. This is a serious problem, which despite best efforts from the government in recent times has not been adequately translated into real improvement in self-reliance in defence. The role of Indian private sector to complement efforts of the state-owned enterprises in meeting military requirements seems still a long way off. It must be understood in no uncertain terms that military R&D demands are capital and time consuming, which need State support, hence government funding for military R&D for the private sector must be given a serious thought. And the private sector, unless provided a conducive climate, will hesitate to take part in defence efforts. But then is the Indian bureaucracy – civil and military – ready to shed its establishmentarian mindset towards the private sector? It is fairly well known by now that unless the Indian private sector
pitches in, India’s long cherished objective of achieving ‘self-reliance in defence’ is not going to be fulfilled. Fifth, capital resources devoted to military R&D in the current defence budget is slightly more than Rs. 5,000 crore. This is a paltry amount by any standard. Some members of the Indian strategic community tend to criticise Defence Research and Development Organisation – India’s leading military science and technology innovator – for not being able to meet requirements of the armed forces. The same goes for State-owned military production agencies, which have failed to produce enough for the country. There are some merits in their arguments. However, the larger picture needs not only devotion of more resources towards military R&D for both public and private sectors but more importantly the country needs to evolve a long term technology roadmap and strive for its effective implementation. In the final analysis, the defence budget has not seen increase along expected lines, but the problem as cited above lies elsewhere. More importantly, the defence budget should not be seen from a narrow prism of mere data analyses but address the larger questions related to national defence. It can be argued that if the Ministry of Defence is able to spend what it gets, not only is the allocation reasonably adequate in realistic terms but more could be earmarked as promised by the Finance Minister on the floor of the Parliament. Although this also is a ritualistic statement often recited by the Finance Ministers from time to time, but that is another story. The writer is Senior fellow in Security Studies at the Observe Research Foundation and currently holds the position of Vice President (PP), the Society of Study in Peace and Conflict (SSPC), New Delhi.
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defence budget ARMY Afghan imbroglio
Lt. Gen. (Retd.) V.K. Chopra
add muscle
!
to the arms
Clearly money is not the problem. A “Bofors syndrome” prevents the presentation of qualitative staff requirements for fear of accusations of favouritism; the Government has only just realized that putting a halt to procurement procedures – trials etc. – at the first hint of corruption as in the Ordnance Factories case only serves to cut one’s nose to spite one’s face. Demands for greater autonomy in decision-making need to be carefully reassessed in the light of failure to achieve commonality of armaments and hence economies of scale where possible.
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April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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defence budget ARMY Afghan imbroglio
D
efence allocation for Financial Year 20102011 is at Rs. 1,47,344 crore as compared to Rs. 1,41,703 crore in Financial Year 20092010. At first glance there is only an enhancement of 3.98 per cent. Key Defence Budget indicators are at Table-1.
Note 1. Budget Estimates 2010-2011: allocation is 2.12 per cent of the GDP. 2. Revised Estimates 2009-10 is revised to Rs 1,36,264 crore that is Rs. 5439 crore have been surrendered at Revised Estimate stage, total surrender of Capital budget is Rs. 7000 crore, additional demand of Revenue is Rs. 1561 crore (7000- 1561= 5439). 3. Approximately Rs. 10,000 crore has been paid during 2009-2010 towards 60 per cent arrears of the 6th Pay commission. Thus in actual fact the Revenue budget in 2010-2011has gone up by 13 per cent since pay commission arrears was a one time liability. 4. Capital budget enhanced by 9.44 per cent. 5. Provision of Rs. 1015 crore for Ordnance Factories Board budget.
the impact of the Army’s allocation, both revenue and capital budgets, suggestions to enhance efficiency and obsolescence management is outlined below.
The reasons for a meagre enhancement in the Defence budget for 2010-2011 could be attributed to three main reasons, firstly the need for fiscal consolidation after the recent economic crisis, secondly the report of the 13th Finance Commission , which has recommended a scale down of percentage of Defence allocations vis-àvis the GDP over the next five years and thirdly continued surrender of allocated funds, specially on the capital account.
Army Allocation As given at Table-2 the Army has been allocated approximately 50 per cent of the total Defence allocation. It may be recalled that the Army’s share of the Defence budget has fluctuated from a high of 60 per cent to as low as 46 per cent. This fluctuation has been on account of higher allocations to the Navy and Air Force on account of big ticket items purchased / on the anvil during the last 4-5 years. Detailed analysis on
The army’s revenue expenditure at Rs. 57,327 crore is two third of the total Defence revenue allocation (Rs. 87,377 crore). This is understandably due to the size and manpower compliment of the Army. In the revenue sub-heads detailed scrutiny and enhanced efficiencies are possible in stores, transportation and revenue works.
Inventory control? The one single factor impacting better management of the budget is the use of Information and Communication Technology. The Army’s record in incorporating this tool of management in its various activities has been far from satisfactory, especially in its inventory control. The much heard about computerised inventory control project (CICP) is yet to take off in a meaningful way. This one single achievement would result in total transparency and efficient management of inventory. Apart from inventory, manpower, financial, movement, vendor base, costing data, repair / overhaul are some of the other areas amenable to automation so as to streamline and reduce revenue expenditure.
The one single factor impacting better management of the budget is the use of Information and Communication Technology. The Army’s record in incorporating this tool of management in its various activities has been far from satisfactory, especially in its inventory control. The much heard about computerised inventory control project is yet to take off in a meaningful way
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Operational readiness The other major area the Defence forces need to look into is the improvement in the state of all equipment as a direct relation to the monies spent on spares and other activities which go into maintaining them. As of now there is no yardstick to measure this. There is a need to devise methodologies to reflect correct state of equipment so as to provide accurate operational readiness data to senior management. Performance based logistics (PBL) is a direction in which all Defence Forces are moving. Some steps have been taken towards this, but enough is not being done. A detailed study to introduce this concept needs to be undertaken, to streamline repair and inventory management. This will go a long way to improve equipment availability in the defence forces.
Autonomy Delegation of financial powers to the defence forces has been done in a big measure. It is widely understood that hardly any revenue proposals are now sent to the Ministry. This is a definite positive for the forces and one feels that this would result in better equipment management and equipment availability to them. One of the most talked about issues today in defence circles is the participation of the private sector in Defence production, maintenance and overhaul. All senior
functionaries of the Ministry seem for the first time serious to give a thrust and direction to this concept. Naturally the public sector is worried on this development. To say the least, this is a step in the right direction, both as competition will result in better pricing, quality as well as reduce dependence on imports. It will also provide a fillip to domestic industry, create employment and be a great multiplier in technology and development of small and medium industry. DPM-2009 has unambiguously laid down detailed procedures for all aspects of revenue procurement. Strict adherence to these will ensure transparency, better contract management and streamline procedures.
Collegiate decisions Capital allocations to the services show that the Army has been allocated Rs. 17,255 crore - (29 per cent), the Air Force Rs. 25,251 crore - (42 per cent) and the Navy Rs. 12,138 crore - (20 per cent). While the Air Force and Navy are more capital intensive by the nature of equipment profile, the Army has an extremely strong case for higher capital fund allocations. This statement is probably questionable when on the one hand the services clamour for more funds while on the other, year after year capital budget is being surrendered. Is there a systemic failure or are the services just not geared up to spend such large funds, despite serious
gaps in operational readiness? Before attempting to tackle this issue, a larger question on total allocations to Defence needs to be addressed which is based on the present scenario; how much allocations to defence are considered adequate? A number of Defence analysts feel that a sustained 3 per cent plus of the GDP is the benchmark allocation which defence needs to catch up on the obsolescence situation we are in. On the other hand it is felt that allocations must flow from the capability we need to build up over the next decade and thereafter continue to get allocations to maintain readiness profiles to match our adversaries on both the fronts and tackle low intensity operations. The latter seems to be a more acceptable argument and all long term defence planning must flow from capabilities to be achieved. The last decade has witnessed drastic structural changes in the acquisition process. Collegiate decision making in the form of The Defence Acquisition Council, Defence Procurement Board and Service Capital Acquisition Committees have been formed to streamline acquisition procedures. No doubt these have helped to an extent, but at the end of the day we still continue to surrender large sums of capital funds, despite operational voids.
The solution? All service headquarters make long term plans covering 10-15 years. A lot of effort and coordination is done at the service
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defence budget ARMY Afghan imbroglio
A N N O U N C E S MAY 2010 ISSUE AS
Jammu and Kashmir Special Covering: Historical, geo-political, strategic dimensions with detailed coverage of political aspirations and demands of every sub-group of Jammu and Kashmir residents. Contributions from experts of eminence providing authoritative information and analyses. apex level and submitted to joint staff. It is here that the long term plan needs to be converted into a joint capability plan. Unfortunately there is no overarching authority to see the larger picture and balance / suggest alternatives to achieving the goal of desired capability. The appointment of a CDS needs to be revisited urgently. At the other end of the quantum, preparation of General Staff Qualitative Requirements (GSQR’s), request for proposals, technical evaluation and trials need a lot of streamlining. In particular there is a need of specialist ofďŹ cers to prepare requirements and requests for proposals, these must be broad-based and lend themselves to a multi-vendor situation, rather than that of a not desired single vendor. The army needs to look at its methodology of trials afresh. Not only are they long drawn, their channel of feedback is too cumbersome. It is felt that for major trials the trial team be nominated by name by service Headquarters and their report ows back directly to them. This would cut down delays as also any inuence by intermediaries. The Army’s state of equipment has for some time been the subject of attention at all levels, including the media. Any professional observer would infer the gaps in the Field and Air Defence proďŹ le.
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Private participation
modernise. She is spending about USD 78 billion during ďŹ scal 2010-11 and it may be more, since some of her defence expenditure is hidden. On the other hand Pakistan spends over 4 per cent of her gross domestic product on defence and also receives massive induction of funds and equipment from USA in the guise of operations against the Taliban.
The private sector has been fully opened to Defence including a cap of 26 per cent foreign direct investment. A lot of enthusiasm is being shown by them. Government is fully committed to ensure their participation so as to decrease dependence on foreign sources. As mentioned earlier public sector will need to become more cost and quality conscious. It is appreciated that in the next 5-7 years the private sector will give stiff competition to the public sector. In the interim Government must encourage participation by the private sector and provide them a level playing ďŹ eld vis-a vis the public sector.
In summation, despite availability of funds India is having problems in completing its armaments acquisition. Reasons are not difďŹ cult to fathom. Introspection on the procedures and processes will bring forth answers, but our will to resolve some of the issues holding up procurement is of paramount importance. In my view Government will make funds available, in any adverse situation, but no amount of funds being available at that point of time will buy equipment. The time to take stock is now, plan sustained fund availability, convert to desired acquisitions and ensure minimum obsolescence levels.
With the present status of Request for Information / Request for Proposals / Trials, ďŹ rst inductions can only commence after 3-4 years, provided there is no major problem. Apart from this night blindness, Electronic Warfare and communication are the other areas needing attention.
The Ministry of Defence is presently undertaking revision of Defence Procurement Policy-2008 document. Some areas the Ministry needs to consider are the appointment of a Regulator for Defence, streamlining offsets, simplifying the ‘make’ procedure and removing irritants in the acquisition process. Adequate feed-back has been given by all concerned including all chambers of commerce.
The writer is an Artillery ofďŹ cer. A graduate of the DSSC, Higher Management & National Defence College. He has held senior staff appointments at various levels, including Master General Ordnance, Director General Operational Logistics & Additional Director General Financial Planning, twice , for over six years.
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In the meanwhile China continues to
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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defence budget NAVY
maritime mission The diversity and vastness of the political, commercial and security assets in the Indian Ocean Region alone is mindboggling. Fish is already a disappearing asset and as earth resources become depleted the undersea polymetallic nodules will be the treasures of the future. As it is, some component of almost every nation’s trade or products is either generated in this region or is transported across its lines of communication. Piracy is one known danger as are oil spills and tsunamis. The safety of the sources and supply lines of hydrocarbons could easily become the clarion call for neo-colonialism in the near future.
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April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
Cmde. (Retd.) Ranjit B. Rai
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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defence budget NAVY
c
olin Gray the renowned maritime thinker has dubbed the 21st century ‘a bloody century’ and if the current two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, longer than the Second World War are indicators, then his predictions are on the right lines. On the maritime front the world houses 120 nations with shorelines, and the Indian Ocean Region is home to 32 such nations and island States. Yet, all the nations of the world especially China, Japan, USA, South Korea and Europe are highly dependent on the Sea Lanes of Communications in this part of the world. The health of the global system and relations between the maritime nations of the Indian Ocean and their cooperation will be vital to ensure stability and safety of the sea lanes in this region. Hence an analysis of the most powerful and fastest growing Indian Navy in the region as the major stakeholder makes for an interesting study.
uprisings are taking a toll and the unrest in the north-east is not dying. In the long term, the challenge and the imminent and impending rise of China poses India with a ‘threat in being’ as India has unsettled borders with China.
Shilly-shally Choices about the size of the nation’s defence budget from the Government’s kitty involves the allocation for social welfare and infrastructure, medical and education and in India’s case, large subsidies have to be catered for. Further within the defence budget, choices are to be made between the allocations for the three separate Armed Forces for the equipment and personnel based on threat assessments, BOE NPSF SFDFOUMZ OFU BTTFTTNFOU FYFSDJTFT undertaken by the Integrated Defence Staff. Separately India’s Comprehensive National Power studies are being undertaken by
the consultants to the National Security Council for long term defence planning. The proverbial competition among the army, navy and the air force is a factor which has to be taken into account as all the three Chiefs in India are autonomous and zealously guard their turfs. Uncertainty in the future nature of warfare means that today’s armed forces and equipment have to be capable of responding to unknown and unknowable future threats over UIF OFYU ZFBST XIJDI DBO UISPX surprises as Michael Howard puts it.
Budget structure The Indian Defence budget is presently allocated under the following heads: t .BKPS )FBE o 3FWFOVF &YQFOEJUVSF "SNZ /BWZ and Air Force respectively which is the inescapable spending for the needs of pay
Strategic asset It was Henry Truman who prophetically said “Strategy, programmes and budget are all aspects of the same basic decisions�. Hence this forward looking article has to begin with a provocative mission strategy statement and that is, the Indian Navy if well planned, equipped, funded and employed can be India’s most critical strategic asset in the 21st century. There is awareness of the logic behind this assessment in India as history has shown that the rise and fall of powers has been accelerated by that nation’s maritime power, in many cases assisted by another nation. Alfred Mahan the respected maritime strategist and Admiral of the Fleet Sergie Gorshkov the legendary Chief of the mighty Soviet Navy, both articulated the SPMF PG UIF OBWZ BT BO FYUFOTJPO PG B OBUJPO T foreign policy as its most powerful tool.
Accelerated growth It is predicted and signs are already visible that India’s economy and role in the world are set to grow. A corollary then, will be, the Indian Navy has to grow and grow fast it must. It was Admiral Cunningham who had stated that it takes some years to build a ship but many more years to build a navy. This therefore predicates that the allocation of India’s defence budgets and allocation to the Indian Navy and Governmental support will play a crucial role in the rise of the Indian Navy and India’s maritime power. The navy will be India’s force multiplier in the years ahead. Defence is costly but as Adam Smith said security is the first duty of the sovereign and therefore any government has to make difficult choices in a world of uncertainty, especially today. The Indian State and the subcontinent are plagued with the immediate challenge of violence and terror from across the border and in ,BTINJS ćF JOUFSOBM /BYBM BOE .BPJTU
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April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
and allowances and running costs of fuel, WJDUVBMT USBJOJOH BOE FYFSDJTFT BOE USBWFM On this head the Government invariably allocates the demands posed by the Ministry of Defence which emanate from the service headquarters. t .BKPS )FBE o 3FWFOVF &YQFOEJUVSF %FGFODF 0SEOBODF 'BDUPSJFT which get an allocation to maintain and FYQBOE UIF GBDUPSJFT BOE SFDPVQ GVOET when supplies are made to the Armed Forces with the Indian Army as its main buyer. t .BKPS )FBE o 3FWFOVF &YQFOEJUVSF %FGFODF 4FSWJDFT 3FTFBSDI and Development provided to DRDO with fair amount of autonomy. t .BKPS )FBE o $BQJUBM &YQFOEJUVSF %FGFODF 4FSWJDFT ćJT JT the critical allocation which enables new infrastructure, acquisitions and inductions of aircraft, ships, submarines and weapon systems.
1.2 million strong Army received Rs. DSPSF 64% CJMMJPO XIJMF the Air Force and Navy were allocated 3T DSPS 64% CJMMJPO BOE 3T DSPS 64% CJMMJPO SFTQFDUJWFMZ GPS DBQJUBM FYQFOEJUVSF ćF *OEJBO /BWZ SFDFJWFE QFS DFOU PG UIF UPUBM CVEHFU *O UIF QSPQPTFE EFGFODF CVEHFU XBT 3T DSPSF 64% CJMMJPO BOE BMNPTU QFS DFOU PG UIF CVEHFU BNPVOUJOH UP 64% CJMMJPO 3T DSPSF XBT TFU BTJEF GPS UIF ZFBS T DBQJUBM FYQFOEJUVSF BOE /BWZ T BMMPDBUJPO XBT SBJTFE UP QFS DFOU *O UIF EFGFODF CVEHFU XBT 3T DSPSF 64% CJMMJPO BOE UIF EFGFODF CVEHFU IBT CFFO SBJTFE UP 3T DSPSF 64% CJMMJPO VQ QFS DFOU GSPN UIF revised estimates of the previous fiscal.
In India’s case the budget planning is limited to the current year and if the acquisition procedure does not keep pace then it has become the practice to surrender funds. However the Indian Navy has invariably utilised the funds and in many cases advanced funds to the PSU shipyards on whom most orders are placed for the navy’s warships, and are under the Ministry of Defence Production.
The current year’s budget includes 3T DSPSF 64% CJMMJPO GPS DBQJUBM FYQFOEJUVSF BOE UIF *OEJBO "JS 'PSDF IBT CFFO HSBOUFE 3T DSPSF 64% CJMMJPO BOE UIF *OEJBO /BWZ IBT CFFO HSBOUFE 3T DSPSF 64% CJMMJPO BOE UIF /BWZ T CVEHFU QFSDFOUBHF IBT HPOF VQ UP QFS DFOU ćJT XJMM DBUFS UP UIF /BWZ T DVSSFOU PSEFS CPPL PG TIJQT which includes the higher cost of USD 2.33 billion for the INS Vikramaditya "ENJSBM (PSTILPW Scorpene TVCNBSJOFT P8I Poisedon maritime reconnaissance aircraft and other orders in the pipeline discussed in this article.
Navy’s share
Maritime revamp
*O GSPN UIF PWFSBMM CVEHFU PG 3T DSPSF 64% CJMMJPO *OEJB T
Navies are also known to be the indispensible strategic and war fighting
arms of maritime nations, and the Indian Navy is the more powerful in the Indian Ocean Region and has proved its efficacy in war and peace. The Indian Navy has also contributed to flag showing and humanitarian and disaster relief in the SFHJPO BOE GBS BÄ•FME BT JO UIF UTVOBNJ As a vibrant democracy with transparent policies, like minded nations like USA, Japan, Australia and Singapore and others, have found it comfortable to work and FYFSDJTF XJUI *OEJB T /BWZ XIJDI IBT BO BNCJUJPVT UFNQMBUF GPS FYQBOTJPO Making a categorical statement at the "OOVBM $PNNBOEFS T $POGFSFODF JO
It is predicted, and signs are already visible that India’s economy and role in the world are set to grow. A corollary then, will be, the Indian Navy has to grow and grow fast it must. Therefore the allocation and Governmental support will play a crucial role in the rise of India’s maritime power. The Navy will be India’s force- multiplier in the years ahead
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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defence budget NAVY
Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh TUBUFE UIBU GVOET GPS UIF /BWZ T FYQBOTJPO would not be constrained and many have dubbed the actions of the Prime Minister in the security realm as ‘India’s Singh Doctrine’. This encompasses a maritime revamp for India, the consummation of the nuclear deal that India concluded with USA and the Nuclear Supplier’s Group /4( JO BOE UIF NBOZ TUSBUFHJD pacts that India has entered into with nations. Therefore, in recent times the spotlight has shone on the Indian Navy which has demonstrated its prowess in FYFSDJTFT BCSPBE TJHOBMMJOH JU JT MPPLJOH to take a lead for stability in the region by furthering inter-operability with western navies almost aping Admiral Mike Mullen’s 1000-ship Navy for the region. Admiral Sureesh Mehta, former Chief of Naval Staff had organized an Indian Ocean Naval Symposium in New Delhi JO 'FCSVBSZ BOE JOWJUFE UIF OBWBM chiefs of the Indian Ocean including the French Naval Chief as a riparian TUBLFIPMEFS UP UIF DPODMBWF ćF OFYU Symposium with its motto ‘Together For Reinforcement of Security in The IOR’, is to be held in Abu Dhabi, UAE from 12th May, under the Chairmanship of the Pakistan-trained UAE Naval Commander Rear Admiral Ahmed AL Sabab Al Tonaigi, whose son, a naval officer has trained in India. India’s Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Nirmal Verma will pass on the baton to him. The UAE Naval Chief is concerned about stability in the Indian Ocean Region and the Gulf States have a very important role in ensuring security of the Hormuz Straits, the Arabian Sea and the piracy infested Gulf of Aden.
Expansion plans The Indian Navy plans to possess a ‘True Blue Water Three Carrier Task Force’, with B UPUBM PG XBSTIJQT BOE TVCNBSJOFT BOE 300 aircraft, helicopters and UAVs by the
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FOE PG DPODVSSFOU XJUI *OEJB T UI national plan. Towards this goal the Navy IBT TIJQT PO PSEFS ćJT JODMVEFT UXP nuclear submarines, INS Arihant and the 10,000 ton Nerpa XIJDI JT FYQFDUFE UP KPJO in 2010 on lease, two aircraft carriers INS Vikramaditya refitting at Severodsink JO 3VTTJB BOE UIF UPO BJS EFGFODF ship being built at Kochi, which will PQFSBUF QPXFSGVM .J( ,T 4JY HVJEFE missile frigates / destroyers of the Type BOE " SFTQFDUJWFMZ BSF VOEFS construction at Mazagon Docks Ltd., .VNCBJ BOE UIF ĕSTU UPO UZQF INS Shivalik with Klub missiles will DPNNJTTJPO JO "QSJM ćF ĕSTU UPO UZQF " INS Kolkata with Vertical Launch BrahMos missiles and the Israeli supplied M/Star which is reportedly akin to the Aegis system in performance, will commission in 2011, and the follow-on ships will commission one every year UIFSFBęFS " OFX EFTJHO 5ZQF # JT also on the cards and two more nuclear submarines are reportedly on order at the Ship Building Centre for which the Ministry of Defence has taken over the Vishakapatnam Shipyard Ltd. Five 3000 tons, armed naval OPVs are being CVJMU BU (PB 4IJQZBSE -UE BOE &YPDFU armed Scorpene submarines are currently being built at MDL with DCNS and Navantia assistance. Some delays in the programme and cost escalation have been reported so the Navy’s submarine strength is falling. Three Krivak frigates with Vertical Launch BrahMos missiles named INS Teg, INS Tarkash and INS Trikand and are being built at Yantar Shipyard in Kalingrad in Russia and two hulls have already been launched for fitting out, and the first is scheduled for BrahMos firing trials later this year. The launchers have been shipped from India. Four Indian Navy EFTJHOFE "48 DPSWFUUFT 5ZQF BSF CFJOH constructed with raft mounted engine
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
platforms from DCNS of France and Indian company Walchandnagar Industries Ltd., is collaborating at Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers Ltd. Kolkata, XIFSF 'BTU "UUBDL $SBę BSF VOEFS construction and four have been delivered to the Navy. Plans for air cushion vehicles have also been announced, and post the UFSSPS BUUBDL PO .VNCBJ UIF ĘFFU PG over 200 interceptor boats and armed light helicopters for the Navy and Coast Guard are being increased.
Survey ships *O B CPME NPWF TJY UPO "VTUBM EFTJHOFE Catamaran Survey ships are being constructed at Alcock Ashdown Ltd. at #IBWOBHBS JO B VOJRVF FYQFSJNFOU BT catamaran hulls facilitate close coastal survey with ease. The ships will have the imported Autonomous Underwater 7FIJDMFT "67 NVMUJ CFBN TPOBST BOE latest GPS aided tools and softwares for survey. It needs noting that the Indian Navy has a very competent Hydrographic Branch which has assisted most nations,
The Indian Navy plans to possess a ‘True Blue Water Three Carrier Task Force’, with a total of 165 warships and submarines and 300 aircraft, helicopters and UAVs by the end of 2017-22 concurrent with India’s 14th national plan. Towards this goal the Navy has 40 ships on order
and island States in the IOR for survey of their coasts and seas, and is now set to assist Saudi Arabia. China has dubbed India’s moves in to the IOR for surveys, its advantage of the Andaman DIBJO PG *TMBOET BOE JUT BDUJPOT QPTU UP patrol the Malacca Straits, as ‘India’s Iron Curtain’, in reply to China’s ‘String of Pearls’ to form ports to encircle India.
Fleet replenishers To support blue water fleet operations the IN has two large 30,000 ton multi-purpose tanker replenishment ships ordered from Fincanteiri in Italy at USD 200 million apiece and the first is due to be delivered in 2010. On the aviation front the navy’s Sea Harriers and Sea King helicopter fleet JT BHJOH BOE PVU PG UIF .*( ,T ordered for the INS Vikramaditya have arrived and operating at INS Hansa Goa. 5XFOUZ OJOF NPSF .J( ,T IBWF CFFO PSEFSFE ćF /BWZ IBT BMTP PSEFSFE #PFJOH 1PJTFEPO *OEJB BOE "48 long range maritime reconnaissance
aircraft and five Ka-31 airborne early warning helicopters. In addition 12 latest ASW helicopters are being selected for the new platforms as India’s Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH Dhruv) has not succeeded. The Government is set to clear UIF QVSDIBTF NFEJVN SBOHF NBSJUJNF reconnaissance aircraft, a second line of submarine construction on an Indian yard VOEFS TFMFDUJPO BOE 5ZQF " GSJHBUFT PG foreign design also to be built in India. Five OPVs on the same lines in Indian yards are to be ordered in the ‘buy and make’ category under the Defence Procurement 1SPDFEVSF %11 In due course a Diving Support Vessel and diving support and recovery vessels would be finalised, while the Ministry of Earth Sciences, formerly called Ministry of Ocean Development has acquired an Oceanic Research Vessel from Fincanteiri and has plans to order an ice breaker. India’s shipbuilding capacity has been augmented with new greenfield private yards built by Larsen and Toubro Ltd. near Chennai at
Ennore, the Pipavav Shipyard Ltd. on the XFTU DPBTU BOE UIF FYQBOTJPO PG "#( BOE Bharti Shipyards Ltd., which have bid for naval projects. The Indian Navy’s budgets and template for the early 21st century is set, and the Navy has articulated its vision for a Mission Denominated Capability Based Approach to police the IOR in a classified document titled, ‘Maritime Capability Perspective Plan-2022’ India’s growing hard power which includes its economic and military strength still lags behind that of China, but its soft power from which arises the ability to influence the hearts and minds of people and gain acceptability appears ahead of that of China. The Navy is India’s indispensible arm for security of the Indian Ocean.
The writer is a former Director Naval Intelligence and Director Naval Operations. Presently he is Vice President of Indian Maritime Foundation.
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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defence budget REVENUE VS CAPITAL Afghan imbroglio
The “bread or guns” debate sounds puerile in the face of evidence that what is given out of the kitty is not utilised to induce growth. It is not that it cannot be done. The Navy has shown the way both attitudinally and in practice. It has participated actively in creating modern military infrastructure be it the nuclear submarine INS Arihant or in stretching the envelope of each of its weapons platforms to the limit. It is not the same with the Army and the Air Force. Pay and perks take precedence over weapons.
why Indian defence budgets
Dr. Harsh V. Pant
disappoint?
F
or the past two decades, the military expenditure of India has hovered around 2.75 per cent of the gross domestic product but since India has been experiencing significantly higher rates of economic growth over the last decade compared to any other time in its history, the overall resources that it has been able to allocate to its defence needs have grown significantly. The armed forces for long have been asking for an allocation of 3 per cent of the nation’s gross domestic product to defence. This has received a broad political support in recent years.
Accepted norm The Indian Prime Minister has been explicit about it, suggesting that “if our economy grows at about eight per cent per annum, it will not be difficult for [the Indian government] to allocate about three per cent of GDP for national defence.” The Indian Parliament has also underlined the need to aim for the target of three per cent. Clearly there is a need for India to strengthen its diplomatic and military capabilities in consonance with its rise as an economic power. Compared to China’s seven per cent and Pakistan’s five per cent, India’s defence budget continues to be relatively modest. This year the defence outlay only increased by a mere 3.98 per cent and this has caused some understandable heartburn. This
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April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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defence budget REVENUE VS CAPITAL Afghan imbroglio is especially true as the defence budget for 2009-10 had increased by a mammoth 34 per cent over the previous year. It was one of the highest in Indian history. But a large part of that increase went to the increased salaries recommended by the Sixth Pay Commission.
Malaise continues While operating expenditure of the armed forces has been rising, capital expenditure had in fact declined last year. This year’s capital outlay actually increased by 9.4 per cent over last year’s allocation but around 27 per cent allocated for new defence acquisitions was returned this year. Like most years in recent times, the ministry was not able to fully spend the capital budget
allocated to it is a sign that the armed forces are not being pushed to improve their teeth-to-tail ratios. Of the three services, the Indian Navy is the only service that’s investing in future capabilities more than it’s spending on running expenditure. This does not bode well for a nation that claims to be pursuing a much hyped defence modernisation programme. During the ten year period between 199697 and 2005-06, the average share of the expenditure on the army, navy and air force was 57 per cent, 15 per cent and 24 per cent respectively. Though the navy’s share is the smallest, it has been gradually increasing over the years whereas the share of other services has witnessed great fluctuations. The Indian Navy saw its allocation going up by 10.5 per cent and procurement spending rising by 17 per cent in 2007. In 2008-09, the Navy’s share was only
36
18.47 per cent of total defense allocation compared to 46.62 per cent of the Army and 53 per cent of the Air Force.
Growth index In the overall defence expenditure for the services, the ratio of revenue to capital expenditure is most significant in assessing how the services are utilising their allocated resources. Capital expenditure is the element that is directed towards building future capabilities. While the ratio of revenue to capital expenditure has been around 70:30 for the defence forces as a whole, there is huge variation among the services with the ratio of Navy being 48:52. Of the three services, it is the only one that is investing in future
capabilities to a greater extent than current expenditure. Capital expenditure determines the trend of modernisation and with 52 per cent of its allocation going towards capital expenditure, the Indian Navy is ahead of the other two services in its endeavour to modernise its operations.
Spurious debate The debate as it has been made out to be in some quarters between defence and development is a spurious one. Unless adequate provisions are made for defence, no State will be able to pursue its developmental agenda. This is much more important for a country like India that faces a unique security environment with two of its ‘adversaries’ straddling it on two sides of its borders and problems on all sides of its periphery. Yet most of the debate in India on defence
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
budget tends to get focused on the amount that the government allocates to defence. The real issue, however, is how effectively these resources get utilized. In the absence of any strategic guidance, the modernisation plans of the armed forces will continue to lag behind. Merely allocating budgetary resources will not make a difference so long as India continues with its archaic bureaucratic procedures. The labyrinthine bureaucratic procedures only lead to more corruption in defence procurement. Greater transparency and efficiency is where the focus should really be.
Defence objectives Few States face the kind of security
challenges that confront India. Yet since independence, the military has never been seen as central to achieving Indian national priorities. India ignored the defence sector after independence and paid inadequate attention to its security needs. Indeed, it was not until the Sino-Indian War of 1962 that the Indian military was given role in the formulation of defence policy. Divorcing foreign policy from military power was a recipe for disaster as India realized in 1962 when even Nehru was forced to concede that India’s military weakness had indeed been a temptation for the Chinese. This trend continues even today as was exemplified by the policy paralysis in New Delhi after the Mumbai terror attacks when Indians to their horror found out that due to the blatant politicisation of military acquisitions India no longer enjoyed
conventional military superiority vis-à-vis Pakistan, throwing Indian military posture in complete disarray and resulting in a serious loss of credibility.
acquired US technology under the garb of fighting the “war on terror” while the modernisation of the Indian army has slipped behind a decade.
When the UPA government came to power in 2004, it ordered investigations into several of the arms acquisition deals of the NDA. A series of defence procurement scandals since late 1980s have also made the bureaucracy risk averse, thereby delaying the acquisition process. Meanwhile, India’s defence expenditure as a percentage of the gross domestic product has been declining and large part of the money is surrendered by the defence forces every year given their inability to spend due to labyrinthine bureaucratic procedures involved in the procurement process. Pakistan has rapidly
Real needs
Like most years in recent times, the ministry was not able to fully spend the capital budget allocated to it is a sign that the armed forces are not being pushed to improve their teeth-to-tail ratios. Of the three services, the Indian Navy is the only service that’s investing in future capabilities more than it’s spending on running expenditure
necessary to appoint even a Chief of Defence Staff yet.
The higher defence organisational set-up in India continues to exhibit serious weaknesses with its ability to prosecute wars in the contemporary strategic context under serious doubt. The institutional structures as they stand today are not effective enough to provide single-point military advice to the government or to facilitate the definition of defence objectives. Coordinated and synergised joint operations need integrated theatre commands yet India hasn’t found it
In recent years the government has decided to fast-track the acquisition process by compressing the timeline necessary to finalise a defence contract. It is hoped that this will allow the services to spend their unutilised budgets quickly. A new Defence Procurement Policy will be unveiled in 2010 as the Indian government tries to promote private sector participation in the defence sector, giving them incentives to establish joint ventures and production arrangements with any foreign manufacturer. The challenge for the Indian government is to delineate clearly what products they need and how to build up their own industry in the process by significantly reforming the domestic defence manufacturing sector. In the absence of a comprehensive, long-
term appraisal of the country’s defence requirements, there will be little clarity on India’s real needs in defence acquisitions.
Strategic planning Delhi is accelerating its programme of arms purchases, but has yet to broach the reforms that would be necessary for these to translate into improved strategic options. There is no substitute for strategic planning in defence. Without it, India will never acquire the kind of military muscle that would enhance its leverage, regionally as well as globally. Finally, while India needs to more effectively manage its defence resources, it should also be taking a closer look at its foreign ministry. The budget of the External Affairs Ministry
did increase by 24 per cent last year. But the Indian Foreign Service needs a major revamp and it continues to be extremely small compared to the expanding interests of India in almost every part of the world. Defence and diplomacy are two sides of the same coin and India can’t afford to ignore either of these. There is no substitute for strategic thinking and institutional effectiveness in foreign and security policy-making. It’s time for a blue ribbon commission to look into these issues as an integrated whole. Otherwise, budgets will come and go without adequately serving Indian security interests. The writer teaches at King’s College, London and is presently a Visiting Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania, USA.
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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special forces BUYING SECURITY
budgeting protection
Manvendra Singh
individuals, albeit of a certain category. Both are federal units that can perform their duties wherever they are asked to. The reference, obviously, is to the National Security Guard and the Special Protection Group. A comparison between the two was a logical outcome of the Chanakyan edict taken to its sensible outcome. The NSG has the dual task of intervening in extremely high voltage anti-terrorist situations, as well as protecting certain individuals listed by the Ministry of Home Affairs to be threatened. The NSG intervened to rescue hostages, and neutralise terrorists, during the attacks in Mumbai on 26 November 2008. And it protects some personalities on a daily basis. This is the more overt confirmation of its roles.
There is a plethora of Central Police Forces, some with roles operationsdefined, some geography-defined. Their responsibilities become highlighted at a moment of crisis like that of the National Security Guard during its intervention in the terrorist attack on Mumbai. It is only then that the nation can guage with some degree of clarity whether it has got value for money. Palace Guards and elitism are part of the lore of “Special Forces” down the ages. Chanakya would have pointed to the sagacity of the concept of “equal pay for equal work”.
Palace guards? The SPG, on the other hand, is solely responsible for the close protection of an extremely select few personages, on the basis of threat, the office they hold, or have held. Both, in a curious case of twinning, are involved in the business of protecting personalities and in the case of the NSG, saving the non-protected when they come under attack of any sort.
A
s the readers of the Defence And Security Alert have no doubt noticed the enormous influence Chanakya wields on the magazine. Prescient, pragmatic and strategist like which the country has yet not produced, Chanakya inspires a vast body of knowledge that seems to get passed down with every generation. We have, in fact, based our motto, our credo, on one of his memorable quotes, which stares the readers in every issue. The one about the king being responsible for the safety and the security of its citizens. This remains the principle inspiration for team DSA. Which then inspired a study, a question, on how the State views its responsibility of protecting its citizenry. How does the
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April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
State allocate its resources to fulfill the Chanakyan diktat that has inspired this magazine. This is a question that brought about a discussion in the office as to how it could be better analysed, better understood.
Roles The government, after all, has a number of forces, armed and unarmed, under its command. Both at the central and at the state levels. From the daily policing responsibilities, to the most challenging task of securing the sovereignty of the country, India has a number of organisations that perform roles in the entire spectrum of interventionist forces. There are two, however, that are charged with the responsibility of protecting
In the complex world of tasking, roles, responsibilities et al, the greatest difficulty is to analyse where the government, as representing the State, places its priorities. In what order of merit, so to say, does the government see its assemblage of forces. This was the dilemma faced when the search began to understand which of the protection forces does the government prioritise. Despite a wealth of data available on tasking, deployment, operations, casualties etc., the simplest route realised was the one where budgeting gets involved. This is the only method that does not depend on subjective analysis inspired by a military statistical bent of mind. Where more bucks go is where the priority is higher for the government, becomes the straightforward route to understanding this preference of the government. When asked about the budgeting preference between the two organisations, a former Director General of NSG remarked that this analysis best be left alone since the two have different roles. But that continued
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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special forces BUYING SECURITY
defence education MILITARY THOUGHT
National Defence University
K. Subrahmanyam
Both NSG and SPG, in a curious case of twinning, are involved in the business of protecting personalities and in the case of the NSG, saving the non-protected when they come under attack of any sort to inspire an analysis, for the simple reason that while both end up protecting some amongst the elite, one even has the primary task of saving and rescuing those whose names don’t make headlines. Innocent citizens trapped in a terrorist situation are responsibility of the NSG, while the protection of the elite is that of the SPG. So the comparison of the two is inspired by the Chanakyan decree that the king must protect his citizens. The NSG and the SPG protect citizens, while one is limited to a select few the other also has to save the common, anonymous, citizens, from the reality of terror. The NSG touches the
40
common citizen, as was obvious from the tragic happenings in Mumbai during end November 2008, while the SPG handles only a handful of Indians. That being the case, and the reality, how does budgeting reflect on the priorities of the government. Where does the government spend more of its monies, in protecting a select few, or in ensuring the security of the citizens from terrorist violence? Let it be said that the protection of the select few is very important for the country, so that no harm be brought upon them. Any harm to them is a setback to the country. And with that it must also be said that saving citizens from terrorist attacks is also important as such losses are also a setback to the country. Both roles being important what then is the ratio of budgeting between the two protection forces? The NSG has had a manpower ceiling for more than a decade and it currently stands at about 7500. This has been so through the years. The SPG, on the other hand, currently has manpower strength, of about 3000. Between these figures is also a vast difference in terms of budgetary allocations. As per budgetary allocations, the decadal growth in the NSG’s reads as: 1999-2000
Rs. 81.00 crore
2009-2010
Rs. 313.80 crore
2010-2011
Rs. 352.58 crore
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
The rapid rise over the last two years undoubtedly influenced by events in Mumbai 2008 and the able conduct of Operation Black Tornado by the NSG. For in fiscal year 2007-08 the allocation was all of Rs. 151.31 crore. In terms of the SPG budgetary allocations are as: 1999-2000
Rs. 80.00 crore
2009-2010
Rs. 226.17 crore
2010-2011
Rs. 252.07 crore
In the same fiscal year before the tragic events of Mumbai the SPG allocation was Rs. 113.73 crore. The raise just as rapid as that for the NSG, but with completely different tasking and roles. These figures are enough reflection of how the government prioritises the two federal elite groups. With almost exactly two and a half times the manpower and a myriad of other responsibilities, the NSG allocations are, currently, just about Rs. 100 crore more than that of the SPG. Percentages can be drawn up, casualties counted, medals given, but it doesn’t take away from the priority of budgeting protection.
Jointness in military thinking in any nation that has a sense of national security is brought about by a cultivated culture. India has been notorious for the perception that it is a nation bereft of the concept of security and that is why it is surprised time and again when it is attacked directly and, more often in this day and age of the fourth generation warfare, by proxies and undisguised terrorism.
The writer is Editor-in-Chief of Defence And Security Alert (DSA) magazine.
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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defence education MILITARY THOUGHT
A
s far back as late forties the American strategist, Bernard Brodie very perceptively commented on the changing role of the armed forces. Upto the end of the second world war, the armed forces functioned on the basis that they were called on to deal with interstate relations with force when diplomacy failed. Brodie argued that with the advent of the nuclear weapons their role was not so much to fight a war but to prevent wars from breaking out. In the last sixty five years the armed forces of leading powers did not fight a war among themselves and yet had very active roles in worldwide deployments. A whole new discipline of nuclear strategy involving the three services has developed. Unlike in the period before the second world war, countries could not depend on large scale mobilisations after a war was formally declared but had to rely on forces-in-being to exercise conventional deterrence or if it became necessary, to conduct short, swift wars of a few weeks duration.
Art of jointness Technology is continuously impacting on the strategy and tactics of war. Lack of understanding on the inter-phase between technology and strategy and tactics could be exceedingly costly just as the French and the Russians found facing the German blitzkrieg. Or the Americans and the British found against the carrier-borne Japanese aerial assaults on their battleships. In the last six decades we have had more than one round of technological revolution in the equipment and armaments of the three services. There has consequently been a revolution in military affairs (RMA) brought about
by accurate missiles and sophisticated surveillance techniques. Operation Overlord initiated the concept of the jointness in planning and operation among the three services. And today it has become the standard requirement in all militarily significant countries which have the three services. Satellite surveillance and unmanned aerial vehicles have become major force-multipliers in modern operations. Outer Space and Cyber space have added new realms to conflict.
relief operations along with other navies. All these emphasise that officers of armed forces should be familiar with international relations and be in a position to play an effective role in international diplomacy involving the use of armed services. A logical extension of this development as well as need to familiarise oneself with equipment, doctrines and operational techniques of other major powers is to conduct periodic exercises with armed forces of other countries.
Interoperability
Security policy
Clauswitz said war was an extension of politics by other means. Today maintenance of military capability has become one of the crucial dimensions of conducting international relations for major powers. Contribution to international peacekeeping is an obligation of a member of the United Nations. India has been in the forefront of UN’s peacekeeping efforts. It is expected that failing States will pose increasing problems for international peace and security and therefore there will be increasing calls for peace-keeping in future. One of the off-shoots of failing States phenomenon is piracy. With growing international trade it is imperative to keep the sealanes open in collaboration with other friendly powers. Indian Navy patrolled the Malacca Straits during the Operation Enduring Freedom in support of US logistic effort. Natural disaster management has assumed international dimensions. Indian Navy’s role in supporting UN disaster relief effort in the wake of massive tsunami strike on 26th December 2004 earned very wide international appreciation. Indian Navy was earlier involved in the Somali food
Since the dominant strategic philosophy in international relations today in the globalised world is to maintain friendly relations with as many major powers as possible, step up our interdependence, improve our position as a valuable stakeholder in international system through our contribution to international economy and trade, international values, science and technology, peace and security even while maintaining our capability to deter and defend ourselves against nuclear threats, conventional war threats, ideological threats and terrorist threats, our efforts should be to isolate our adversaries and expand the circle of friendly powers. This strategic philosophy needs constant watch and study of international developments in terms of international security. That also involves study of development in defence technologies in various countries and transfer of equipment and technology from the more advanced powers to others. This is a specialised area in international relations. This is an area of focus for all major powers of the world. The services intelligence directorates carry out this task in major powers. Such studies and expertise developed in them enable the services directorates to make their full and effective contribution to national Intelligence assessments. And national security policy.
There has been a revolution in military affairs (RMA) brought about by accurate missiles and sophisticated surveillance techniques. Operation Overlord initiated the concept of the jointness in planning and operation among the three services. And today it has become the standard requirement in all militarily significant countries which have the three services
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Think tanks India is today seen as one of the six major players in the world, along with US, the European Union, China, Russia and Japan. Of these US, European Union and Japan are allies bound by alliance systems. Therefore in their case, the US plays a lead role in developing a world view and a broad grand strategy. India, like China and Russia has to develop its own independent grand strategy. India is only sixty three years old as a nation-State and is yet to develop a mature strategic culture. Observers outside India sympathetic to India’s rise as a major power have pointed out that the country has not developed adequately the discipline of International Studies in universities and think tanks. Others have highlighted the need for more think tanks if India is to develop a foreign policy befitting a major power. In view of these developments the leadership of the Armed Forces of today need to have multi-disciplinary knowledge and skills and they need to refurbish their knowledge at regular intervals. They should also be capable of jointness in conceptualisation, planning, training and implementation of operations involving elements of the three services. It is essential to train them together in such skills. India has such common programme of training for the three services at the initial level at Khadakvasla, at the Staff College in Wellington and College of Defence Management in Hyderabad.
Defence university Jaswant Singh as the Defence Minister constituted a committee in August 2001 to report on setting up of a National Defence University in India. This followed the recommendation of the Group of Ministers
headed by L. K. Advani set up in the wake of the Kargil Committee report to review the national security policy framework. The Committee on National Defence University was headed by the writer of this article and had eleven members including Air Marshal Brajesh Jayal, General Satish Nambiar, Admiral Raja Menon, Sanjaya Baru, Tarun Das, Professor Madhavan Palat, Dr. Rahul Roy-Choudary, director Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, director, IIM Ahmedabad and Member-Secretary, Phalguni Rajakumar, Joint Secretary, (Training), Ministry of Defence. The Committee delivered the report to the Defence Minister in June 2002. The Committee associated General Kapoor of the Integrated Defence Staff in all its deliberations. Before finalising its recommendations the committee furnished the draft recommendations to the Chiefs of Staff Committee and had their endorsement of the recommendations after detailed discussions.
Preparing faculty In spite of that, the proposal to set up the NDU is just now being submitted to the Cabinet for approval almost seven and a half years after the submission of the report. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in his addresses to the annual combined commanders conference in 2004 and 2005 enquired about the status of the implementation of the proposal. One of the recommendations in the report was that the Chiefs of Staff Committee should straightaway institute twenty scholarships per year for PhD programmes in the best universities of India to generate faculty for the university when it is set up. This recommendation was sadly neglected and therefore when the University is set up it is likely to face a problem of qualified faculty.
The Indian National Defence University (INDU) as proposed by the committee is broadly based on the US model. The university’s mission will be to prepare military and civilian leaders from India and other countries to better address national and international security challenges through multi-disciplinary educational programmes, research, professional exchanges and outreach. The officers attending the Indian National Defence University will be of Brigadier or equivalent rank. While the University will be running this senior course it will also have three constituent units - the present NDC, the College of Defence Management, Hyderabad and a new College of Technology to be set up in Bangalore. This location was decided since Bangalore is the Information Technology capital of India. The Khadakvasla Academy and the Staff College will also be incorporated in the University. While all the Colleges and the University will be commanded by service officers in all the four institutions the deputies will be drawn from the foreign service. There will be a research institute attached to the University.
Outlines In the US more than half of the instruction staff in all four institutions are civilian PhDs. They may be drawn from academia or from retired service officers who acquire PhDs from leading Universities after retirement. They form the core staff while the rotating staff are from the services. and foreign service. There are advisory committees for each one of the institutions selected from retired service officers who are known for keeping uptodate with the latest developments and who have the necessary teaching skills. The University will be autonomous by legislation. These were our recommendations as I recollect them and I do not know whether changes have been made in those recommendations while submitting them to the Cabinet. The University’s academic performance is subjected to peer review by a committee of fellow universities periodically. In the US the National Defence University has such prestige that Presidents of the United States often make their policy pronouncements from its podium. The Indian National Defence University is the first step to equip the defence services to play their legitimate role in India’s security and foreign policies. It will also help to bridge the gap between the Defence Services and the Indian Foreign Service The writer was Director Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). He served as Secretary, Defence Production; worked as Convenor, National Security Advisory Board; Chairman, Kargil Review Panel and Consulting Editor, Times of India. The writer made the recommandations to the government for the Indian National Defence University (INDU) in June 2002.
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China MILITARY MUSCLE
defence budgeting and planning: lessons for India
C
hina’s rapid rise over recent years as a regional political and economic power with growing global inuence is an important element in today’s strategic landscape, one that has signiďŹ cant implications for the region and the world. The comity of nations and India would welcome the rise of a stable, peaceful, and prosperous China. However, much uncertainty surrounds China’s future course, particularly in the area of its expanding military power and how that power might be used.
Secure underbelly?
Contours of China’s strategy of dominance in Asia have long been available in the construction of the Karakoram Highway, the proliferation of nuclear weapons and missiles to Pakistan backed by numerous anti-India insurgencies, the setting up of an electronics listening post in Myanmar’s Coco Island near the mouth of the strategic Malacca Strait. It is in the manner in which it has created an access-denial network to protect mainland China that India needs to draw appropriate lessons.
China’s strategic security concerns are threefold. China is like a rooster with pot belly protruding into sea. It feels most vulnerable along the coastline, where its economic heartland also lies. Control over buffer regions forming its periphery is another concern. Buffer region comprises, Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia and Manchurian states; Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang. Internal security in the heartland of central and eastern China is the third major security concern. China’s threat perceptions are twofold. Non-traditional threats of internal subversion from Islamic fundamentalists, separatists and extremists intent on overthrowing the regime continue to bedevil the government. External threats include the following: s )NDIA *APAN SUPPORTED BY 53! ARE SEEN to have the will and capacity to threaten China. India is seen as part of grand China containment design.
s 4HREAT MANIFESTATION IS VIEWED MOSTLY as diplomatic, economic isolation and external abetment of destabilising forces within. s %NERGY SECURITY PARTICULARLY mOW OF trafďŹ c through Malacca Strait.
Political philosophy China’s strategic priorities are: Perpetuation of Chinese Communist Party rule, achieving sustained economic growth and development, maintaining domestic political stability, defending its national sovereignty and territorial integrity and status as a great power. People’s Liberation Army is guided by a clear political philosophy. s 4WENTY FOUR #HARACTER 3TRATEGY GIVEN BY Deng Xiaoping and still relevant which says “ Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low proďŹ le and never claim leadershipâ€?. s (ARMONIUS 7ORLD 6ISION OF (U *INTAO It emphasises equality in international relations, non-interference and democratisation of international relations (paradoxically retaining autocracy internally). It urges a balance between competing priorities for economic development and maintaining the type of security environment within which such development can occur. This is an upgradation of defence development priority, that was earlier second to economic development. China sees ďŹ rst 20 years of this century as period of opportunity as regional and international
Brig. (Retd.) Dr. Anil Sharma
conditions remain peaceful and conducive to China’s rise to regional pre-eminence and global inuence. This implies, USA / NATO combine is bleeding in Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia is engaged by the western alliance and internally by depleting population. India is seriously grappling with internal threats in Kashmir, north-east and other states and near failing conditions in other south Asian countries. These are checkmating its rise. Japan remains tied down with its paciďŹ st versus assertive security dilemma along with economic slowdown and poor demographics. Compared to other peer competitors China is not engaged in any downside strategic situation. Even in current economic meltdown it is better placed than other countries and remains hopefully poised to emerge stronger than others. Hu Jintao has exhorted Peoples Liberation Army to accelerate the Revolution in Military Affairs with Chinese characteristics and ensure
Sun Tsu 44
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China MILITARY MUSCLE design. Russian sources have now told Jane’s that under the current proposal the Russian in-service Su-33s would be put back into production and that the Navy would acquire 14 of this type to be used for the training phase of the programme.
China’s goal is to develop comprehensive national power. It consists of hard power elements that is external indicators of strength like nuclear and missile arsenal. Conventional military capability, diplomatic inuence, territory / natural resources and international prestige. Soft power elements comprise, economic prosperity, cultural inuence and domestic cohesiveness. Both are mutually overlapping preparations for military struggles ahead. Chinese strategic vision can be summarized as follows: s !TTAIN THE STATUS OF A MODERATELY developed world power by 2049. s %NVISIONS A MULTIPOLAR WORLD YET A #HINA centric Asia. s 3EEKS TO BE A REGIONAL POWER BY s )TS BASELINE IS DEVELOPMENT AND PEACE s #HINA WANTS TO AVOID WAR BUT IS determined to be better prepared for it as compared to its perceived competitors. s #HINA S GOAL IS TO DEVELOP COMPREHENSIVE national power. It consists of hard power elements, i.e. external indicators of strength like nuclear and missile arsenal. Conventional military capability, diplomatic inuence, territory / natural resources and international prestige. Soft power elements comprise economic prosperity, cultural inuence and domestic cohesiveness. Both are mutually overlapping. In their view Comprehensive National Power maximises window of strategic opportunity as also enhances strategic conďŹ guration of Comprehensive National Power vis-Ă -vis its competitors. It is to be noted that Chinese concepts advocate application of CNP against adversary’s / competitor’s CNP. Thus strategic confrontation would begin to unfold well before military hostilities.
s 4HE .AVY IS IMPROVING ITS over-the-horizon (OTH) targeting capability with Sky Wave and Surface Wave OTH radars, and is developing missiles with improved range and accuracy. s 4WO NEW 3HANG CLASS 4YPE nuclear powered attack submarines (SSN) and one Jin-class (Type 094) SSBN may soon enter service alongside four older Han-class SSNs and China’s single XIAclass SSBN. s #HINA HAS AN ESTIMATED TEN Song-class (Type 039) diesel-electric attack submarines (SS) in its inventory. The Song-class SS is designed to carry the YJ-82 (CSS-N-8) anti-ship cruise missile. The Yuan class SS is now assessed to be in full production and will be ready for service by 2010. imports in last 5 years (12 per cent share). There has been signiďŹ cant increase in its research and development budget in last three years. For last 10 years China’s defence budget growth rates have far exceeded its GDP growth rate. Military modernisation capability goals are sought to be achieved in three phases as follows. s 0HASE n &OUNDATION 0HASE TILL It is aimed to narrow military differential with peer competitors, with emphasis on developing a leaner and meaner military machine.
o Coercion. Acme of skill is to subdue enemy without ďŹ ghting. Overall goal being to create unacceptably large power asymmetry vis-Ă -vis present competitor / future adversary. This grand strategy could be focused at USA and other major powers like Japan, Russia and India. o Pre-emption. Therefore those skilled in war bring the enemy to the ďŹ eld of battle and are not brought there by him.
s 0HASE n 'ROWTH 0HASE TILL 4HE objective being to emerge as regional predominant power, with emphasis on high-tech weapon enabled Navy and Air Force.
o Guile and Subterfuge. The enemy must not know where I intend to give him battle‌ he must prepare in a great many places‌ And when he prepares everywhere he will be weak everywhere.
s 0HASE n !TTAINING !SYMMETRY TILL The goal being to attain status of world class military power with focus on space warfare, nuclear deterrence and force projection.
o Short and Swift. An attack may lack ingenuity but it must be launched with supernatural speed. For there has never been a protracted war from which a country has beneďŹ ted.
s -ODERNISATION OBJECTIVES COMPRISE preparing for military contingencies along China’s borders, integration of Taiwan and defense against Western intervention. Modernisation would be driven around three pillars; doctrine, equipment and institutional reforms.
China’s military modernisation strategy lays down:
Defence outlay
s #HINESE MILITARY DOCTRINE FOCUSES ON ďŹ ve parameters:
China is the highest military spender in Asia with USD 72.8 billion defence budget in 2009. Western experts estimate it to be around USD 125 billion. Nearly per cent of its GNP goes to military at an average. It has been largest recipient of global arms
o Informatisation (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Information, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance-C4I2SR), active defence, oceanic offensive, limited nuclear deterrence and RMA with Chinese avour.
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The latter is evolved from precepts of Sun Tzu, whose teachings are prominently taught in Chinese military institutions of higher learning. These are as follows:
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To feign weakness while building strength (Sun Tsu’s precept). Replace old technology with new, build up large Navy, Air Force, second artillery, army technical divisions and in that priority. Establish forward deployed bases and assets. To develop capabilities of seizing control of enemy’s communication, transportation and logistical reserves (including cyber warfare). Be ready to deal with internal missions and defence. Strength of Chinese armed forces stands at 2.3 million with ground force- 12.60 lakh, Navy- 2.57 lakh, Air Force- 3.93 lakh and
second artillery- 1.46 lakh.
integrating this force will be a challenge.
Ground forces
Navy
Focus is on downsizing and building an army capable of undertaking integrated and quick tempo operations. Approximately 400,000 soldiers are based in the three Military Regions opposite Taiwan. China is upgrading the ground force with 4th generation tanks, amphibious tanks, armoured personnel carriers, automated command and control systems, enhanced ďŹ re power, C4I2SR and night ďŹ ghting capability and longer range and rapid response artillery. Among the new capabilities acquired by PLA ground forces are the approximately 200 Type 98 and Type 99 main battle tanks now deployed to units in the Beijing and Shenyang Military Regions. China’s militia forces are shifting from a ground forces-oriented support element to a multiservice force supporting the ground, naval, aviation, and missile forces. Future trends indicate theatre missile defense systems, tri-amphibious and more special forces capability. It also has strategic airborne corps that can mobilise and deploy a regiment within 10 hours and remaining force build-up within next 48 hours. By 2020 it is planning to raise three more divisions (total 40 divisions) and accretion of three more airborne divisions, making a total of six. It already has an amphibious division, two marine brigades and seven special operations groups forming projection force grouping. For active border defence under informatisation conditions it has 20 rapid reaction force brigades. The PLA is also integrating militia forces with active duty units in training for future combat operations. China’s militia forces number 10-15 million; fully
China’s naval forces include 74 principal combatants, 57 attack submarines, 55 medium and heavy amphibious ships and 49 coastal missile patrol craft. s #HINA IS AIMING TO DEVELOP OFF SHORE defence (Blue Water Navy) capability to reach its perceived sphere of inuence that is three chain of islands; o By 2019- Japan-Taiwan-Philippines. o By 2025- Sakhalin- islands in South PaciďŹ c. o By 2050- Aleutian Islands - Antarctica. s #HINA HAS AN ACTIVE AIRCRAFT CARRIER research and design programme. If the leadership were to so choose, the shipbuilding industry could start construction of an indigenous platform by the end of this decade. It acquired TON 6ARYAG CARRIER FROM 5KRAINE through Macao based shipping company for oating amusement park and casino purpose, under conditions that it will not be put to military use. All electronics and power plant was removed prior to handing over and retroďŹ tted. As per recent reports the deck has been refurbished, electrical ďŹ ttings carried out with PLA Navy markings. As per Janes, China is nearing a decision on aircraft for its aircraft carrier programme. Under the current proposal, the Russian in-service Su-33s would be put back into production, 14 Su-33s would be used for the training phase of the PROGRAMME 6ARYAG IS EXPECTED TO BE USED as a training platform while the People’s Liberation Army (Navy) constructs its own carrier with a similar ski-ramp take-off, arrested recovery ight-deck
s 4HE 0,! .AVY HAS RECEIVED SEVEN NEW domestically produced surface combatants in the past two years, including two Luyang II-class (Type 052C) DDGs ďŹ tted with the indigenous HHQ-9 long-range surface-toair missile; two Luzhou-class (Type 051C) DDGs equipped with the Russian SA-N20 long-range surface-to-air missile and three Jiangkai II-class (Type 054A) guided missile frigates (FFG) to be ďŹ tted with the medium-range HHQ-16 vertically launch naval surface-to-air missile currently under development. These ships reect leadership’s priority on advanced anti-air warfare capabilities for China’s naval forces, which has historically been a weakness of the eet. s #HINA IS CONTINUING CONSTRUCTION OF its new Type 022 catamaran-style missile patrol craft, which will be armed with anti-ship cruise missiles. It is also going for underwater information warfare systems and anti and underwater blockade capability.
Air force China bases 490 combat aircraft within un-refuelled operational range of Taiwan, and has the airďŹ eld capacity to expand that number by hundreds. Many of these aircraft are upgrades of older models; however, newer and more advanced, aircraft make-up a growing percentage of the inventory. s 4HE MODERNISED &" ! lGHTER BOMBER will augment other multi-role and strike aircraft, such as the F-10 and Su-30MKK, already deployed with China’s air forces. s #HINA IS UPGRADING ITS " BOMBER eet (originally adapted from the Russian Tu-16) with a new variant which, when operational, will be armed with a new long-range cruise missile.
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China MILITARY MUSCLE s 4HE 0EOPLE S ,IBERATION !RMY !IR Force) received four battalions of upgraded Russian SA-20 PMU-2 long-range (200 km) surface-to-air missile systems in July 2007. Another four battalions are expected to be delivered in 2008. The SA-20 system reportedly provides limited ballistic and cruise missile defence capabilities. s #HINA S AVIATION INDUSTRY IS DEVELOPING several types of airborne early warning and control aircraft. This includes the KJ-200, based on the Y-8 transport for early warning as well as intelligence collection and maritime surveillance, and the KJ-2000, based on the Russian A-50 airframe.
Strategic capability China has the most active ballistic missile programme in the world. It is developing and testing offensive missiles, forming additional missile units, qualitatively upgrading certain missile systems and developing methods to counter ballistic missile defenses. s "Y .OVEMBER THE 0,! HAD deployed between 990 and 1,070 CSS-6 and other short-range ballistic missiles to garrisons opposite Taiwan. It is increasing the size of this force at a rate of more than 100 missiles per year, including variants of these missiles with improved ranges, accuracies and payloads. s 4HE 0,! IS ACQUIRING LARGE NUMBERS OF
highly accurate cruise missiles, such as the domestically produced ground-launched DH-10 land attack cruise missile; the Russian SS-N-22 / Sunburn supersonic anti-ship cruise missile outfitted on #HINA S TWO 3/62%-%..99 AND TWO 3/62%-%..99 )) CLASS GUIDED MISSILE destroyers also acquired from Russia; and the SS-N-27B / SIZZLER supersonic anti-ship cruise missile, outfitted on the last eight of twelve total Russian-built KILO-class diesel electric submarines China has acquired. s #HINA IS DEVELOPING AN ANTI SHIP BALLISTIC missile based on a variant of the CSS5 medium-range ballistic missile as a component of its anti-access strategy. The missile has a range in excess of 1,500 km and when incorporated into a sophisticated command and control system, is a key component of China’s anti-access strategy to provide the PLA the capability to attack ships at sea, including aircraft carriers, from great distances. Suitably deployed in Yunan or islands off Myanmar coast or near Gwadar, it would threaten coastal waters of strategic interest of India in Bay of Bengal and inner Indian Ocean. s #HINA IS MODERNISING ITS LONGER RANGE ballistic missile force by adding more survivable systems. Most notably, the DF-31 and longer range DF-31A are now being deployed to units within the Second Artillery Corps.
s #HINA IS ALSO WORKING ON A NEW submarine launched ballistic missile, the JL-2, for deployment aboard new Jin-class (Type 094) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. The JL-2 is expected to reach initial operational capability around 2009-2010.
Space weaponry China is developing a multi-dimensional programme to limit or prevent the use of space-based assets by its potential adversaries during times of crisis or conflict. Although China’s commercial space programme certainly has utility for non-military research, it demonstrates space launch and control capabilities that have direct military application. s )N *ANUARY #HINA SUCCESSFULLY tested a direct ascent, anti-satellite weapon, destroying a defunct weather satellite. The unannounced test demonstrated the ability to attack satellites operating in low-earth orbit. The test raised concern among many nations and the resulting debris cloud put at risk the assets of all space faring nations, and posed a danger to human space flight. s #HINA LAUNCHED ITS lRST LUNAR ORBITER on October 24, 2007. The Chang’e 1 orbiter reached lunar orbit on November 5, 2007. Successful completion of this mission demonstrated China’s ability to CONDUCT COMPLICATED SPACE MANOEUVRES n A capability which has broad implications
for military counter-space operations. The Chang’e 1 mission completed the first of a three-stage plan for lunar exploration which includes China’s desire to launch an unmanned lunar rover mission in 2012 and a manned lunar landing by 2020. s )N /CTOBER #HINA LAUNCHED THE fifth in a class of Space Event Support Ships, the Yuanwang 5, an ocean-going space tracking and survey vessel intended to support China’s growing space programme, including its expanding space launch activities. s #HINA LAUNCHED ITS TH ,ONG -ARCH series rocket in 2007 and continues to put a more sophisticated and diverse set of satellites into orbit. China is developing the Long March 5, an improved heavylift rocket that will be able to lift larger reconnaissance satellites into low-earth orbit or communications satellites into geosynchronous orbits by 2012 and is constructing a new satellite launch complex on Hainan Island. China expects to replace all foreign-produced satellites in its inventory with indigenously produced sun-synchronous and geo-stationary models by 2010, with life expectancies of 5 and 15 years, respectively. s #HINA ANNOUNCED PLANS TO LAUNCH 15 rockets and 17 satellites in 2008. Additionally, China announced its intention to launch a third manned space MISSION 3HENZHOU 6)) IN /CTOBER
on the heels of the Beijing Olympics, underscoring space development as an important symbol of national pride. The majority of the technology used in China’s manned space programmes is derived from Russian equipment and China receives significant help from Russia with specific satellite payloads and applications. s #HINA S LEADERS REMAIN SILENT ABOUT THE military applications of China’s space programmes and counter-space activities.
Cyber warfare In the past year, numerous computer networks around the world, including those owned by the US government, were subject to intrusions that appear to have originated within China. These intrusions require many of the skills and capabilities that would also be required for computer network attack. Although it is unclear if these intrusions were conducted by, or with the endorsement of, the People’s Liberation Army or other elements of the Chinese government, developing capabilities for cyber warfare is consistent with authoritative Army’s writings on this subject. s )N THE $EPARTMENT OF $EFENCE other US government agencies and departments and defence-related think tanks and contractors experienced multiple computer network intrusions, many of which appeared to originate in the PRC.
s (ANS %LMAR 2EMBERG 6ICE 0RESIDENT of the German Office for the Protection of the Constitution (Germany’s domestic intelligence agency) publicly accused China of sponsoring computer network intrusions “almost daily.” Remberg stated, “across the world the People’s Republic of China is intensively gathering political, military, corporate-strategic and scientific information in order to bridge their [sic] technological gaps as quickly as possible.” Referring to reports of Chinese infiltration of computer networks of the German government, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said “we must together respect a set of game rules.” Similarly, in September 2007, French Secretary-General of National Defence Francis Delon confirmed that government information systems had been the target of attacks from China. s )N ADDITION TO GOVERNMENTS APPARENT Chinese origin network intrusions targeted businesses. In November 2007, Jonathan Evans, Director-General of the British intelligence service, MI-5, alerted 300 financial institution officials that they were the target of state-sponsored computer network exploitation from PRC.
Technology espionage Authentic global intelligence agencies and think tanks have identified China as running an aggressive and wide-ranging effort aimed at acquiring advanced technologies from the United States.
Chinese military doctrine focuses on five parameters: Informatisation, active defence, oceanic offensive, limited nuclear deterrence and Revolution in Military Affairs with Chinese flavour. The latter is evolved from precepts from Sun Tzu, whose teachings are prominently taught in Chinese military institutions of higher learning. These are as follows: Coercion. Pre-emption, Guile and Subterfuge, Short and Swift 48
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China MILITARY MUSCLE to Chinese C4I2SR. There is little that India and China share in common. There are no shared socio-political, socio-cultural value systems or shared visions for the future. In this background it is not rational for India to go for unconditional rapprochement. s 4HE #HINESE ARE THE VERY SAME PEOPLE WHO showed the world that they could take on the powerful West, despite being a weak nation, without losing and simultaneously impose control over Tibet. s #HINESE ENCIRCLEMENT OF )NDIA THROUGH SOFT power means, such as strategic diplomacy, economic linkages and “Finlandisationâ€? of India’s neighbours, as well as through hard power such as a buildup of military capabilities, both nuclear, conventional, military assistance and weapons of mass destruction proliferation TO )NDIA S ADVERSARIES n THESE ARE THE ASPECTS critically important to India as it develops its own Comprehensive National Power and expands its circle of inuence diplomatically, economically and militarily. s 3INO )NDIAN BORDER DISPUTE WILL NOT BE THE CAUSE for future conict. Such a scenario, if it emerges, will be a construct of India-China economic and strategic competition, wherein boundary dispute would become a factor. s !NY MILITARY CONmICT WITH #HINA WILL BE signiďŹ cantly different in terms of technology, force application with deďŹ nite component of Network Centric Warfare. Chinese pre-emptive strategy based on effect-based operational philosophy is an important issue that Indian military planners need to take note of and factor in. s $EVELOPMENT OF LOGISTICS INFRASTRUCTURE IN 4IBET Autonomous Region is signiďŹ cant from the Indian point of view. The ofďŹ cials from US Immigration and Customs Enforcement have referred to China as the leading espionage threat to the United States. Between 2000 and May 2006, the US initiated more than 400 investigations involving the illicit export of American arms and technologies to China. The former director of a research institute associated with Russia’s space agency was sentenced to eleven and a half years in prison for passing classiďŹ ed technology to China. According to a Russian spokesperson, the information could be used to create missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Joint exercises In March 2007, two Chinese Navy guided missile frigates participated in the Pakistan-hosted multinational naval exercise, Aman 07, in the North Arabian Sea. Naval forces from the United States and seven other countries participated in the exercise, which focused on maritime counter-terrorism. s 0REMIER 7EN *IABAO PAID HIS lRST OFlCIAL visit to Japan in April 2007. During the visit, Wen and Japan’s then-Prime Minister Abe agreed to expand economic ties and
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discuss military exchanges and mechanisms for peace in the East China Sea, an area where China and Japan hold competing sovereignty claims. People’s Republic of China Minister of Defense General Cao Gangchuan followed Wen to Japan in June 2007 for the ďŹ rst senior-level defence visit in ten years. In November 2007, the Navy Luhai-class destroyer Shenzhen conducted the PRC’s ďŹ rst port visit to Japan. s )N !UGUST #HINA CONDUCTED A ďŹ rst time transnational deployment of 1,600 troops and equipment to Russia to participate with Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member-States in a highly-scripted exercise, PEACE MISSION 2007. s $ESPITE A TRADITION OF ALLOWING 53 NAVAL vessels to make port calls in Hong Kong, in November 2007, Beijing at the last minute denied entry into Hong Kong of the USS Patriot and USS Guardian, two small mine sweepers, seeking refuelling AND WEATHER AVOIDANCE n A DECISION THAT is inconsistent with international custom regarding safe harbour. The following day, Beijing denied the USS Kitty Hawk carrier strike group entry to Hong Kong harbour
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on the day it was scheduled to arrive for the Thanksgiving holiday. China’s subsequent reversal of this decision following US demarches came too late to be accepted by the ships of the strike group. s 4HE 5. $EPARTMENT OF 0EACEKEEPING Operations named Major General Zhao Jingmin as the ďŹ rst Chinese commander of a UN peace operation, the UN Mission on Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). As of December 2007, China was engaged in 13 UN peace missions with 1,800 troops deployed globally. s )N .OVEMBER #HINA DEPLOYED 135 military engineers (of an eventual 315-person force) to Darfur as the ďŹ rst non-African Union troop contingent for the “hybrid force.â€? s )N $ECEMBER #HINA AND )NDIA STAGED “Hand-in-hand 2007,â€? a week long counterterrorism exercise in China that involved 100 troops from each country. Earlier, in April 2007, the Peoples Liberation Army and Indian navies held a combined force exercise in the South China Sea. These events stand in contrast to China’s November 2007 destruction of an abandoned Indian bunker near the tri-border area in Bhutan, ignoring Indian protests.
Implications for India Chinese doctrinal development and force transformation is in state of ux. It is unlikely to fructify signiďŹ cantly before 2020. It allows India a decade for focused capability development. Chinese believe that pre-emptive options are strategically and operationally attractive than reactive ones. Second, they are willing to escalate if they believe it can be managed. In a major conventional conict China will use technology and standoff capability backed by precision strikes. Similarly Information Warfare capability is likely to see incremental sophistication. Chinese credible missile centric force designed with its counter transformation proactive strike capability needs immediate attention. We need to take short-range ballistic missile, medium range ballistic missile and also air-launched cruise missile and landattack cruise missile capability seriously. Appropriate counter strategies need to be fashioned to include infrastructural development, dissuasive capabilities such as missile defence, countering information attacks, protecting strategic communications. In addition we need to develop capabilities to pose credible threat
s )NDIAN DOCTRINAL PHILOSOPHY WILL NEED TO MOVE beyond attrition or manoeuvre oriented thinking to a nuanced effect-based operational perspective. India has to enhance its strategic intelligence and surveillance capability together with rapid reaction force and Special Forces. Network Centic Warfare capabilities are likely to play signiďŹ cant role in future operational scenarios. Our response must be to accelerate own capability in this regard. The Chinese are likely to pursue informatisation warfare to its logical conclusion. Any asymmetry in network centric capabilities will give a deďŹ nite edge to the Chinese and calls for integrated force development and application strategies based on precision force application models. Time has come for India to develop integrated force application doctrines and models to deal with emerging threats from China. Perception management that India will respond effectively is very important in any such contingency. India will have to invest in technologies that help in achieving operational and strategic manoeuvre in higher altitude areas of the mountains in the west and north-east. This includes manoeuvre by ďŹ re, physical manoeuvres and through electronic means. s #HINESE INCREASING AIR AND SPACE CAPABILITIES ARE ALSO OF SERIOUS CONCERN 5NLESS THESE are addressed, gap between Chinese Air Force and Indian Air Force is going to increase signiďŹ cantly. Building an effective deep attack capability is technically challenging and could be rendered less effective if alternate strategies or force employment concepts that allow operations while under attack are developed by the adversary. Can we consider a range of responses entailing limiting its actions, altering the basic strategy for conict to render irrelevant, capabilities of the missile forces by employing a host of defensive measures throughout full strategic depth, including escalation dominance? Our warwaging perspective requires radical shift. Same war waging models that are used against Pakistan cannot work. India has to develop its own anti-access strategy with clearly deďŹ ned red lines. s 7HILE ACHIEVING THIS )NDIA MUST TAKE THE INITIATIVE BY EMPLOYING ASYMMETRIC MEANS OF ďŹ ghting hi-tech wars, i.e. ďŹ ghting ability at both ends of the spectrum. s 4HE 3INO )NDIAN FRONTIERS CONSIST OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN MASS IN THE WORLD 4HE
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China MILITARY MUSCLE
topographical configuration, narrow valleys, limited communication system, inhospitable terrain, vagaries of climate, susceptibility of routes to landslides, avalanches, sparse populations, lack of natural resources and vulnerability of roads to Indian Air Force, necessitates China to carry out sufficient stockpiling before any major operation against India. This justifies her need to develop communication network, increase Rapid Deployment Forces, upgrade airfields and develop air to air refuelling capability, in her future force structuring and posturing. s $ESPITE MAJOR REDUCTIONS IN FORCE LEVEL it is visualized that People’s Liberation Army will not be short of forces to address any limited war. In the Indian context, depending upon the aim, terrain, weather, depth of likely operations, logistics constraints, sustainability of the chosen thrust-lines and calculation of escalation dynamics will dictate the force level to be launched. The rapid reaction force in Indian context may require equal ground logistics support as other mountain formations. s 4HERE IS A NEED TO EVOLVE A MODEL OF WAR fighting doctrine that takes cognizance of developing technologies and concepts to create operational asymmetry to destroy and degrade technologically symmetrical or superior enemy. s #ONSEQUENTLY FOCUSED TECHNOLOGICAL upgrades for systematic modernisation of Army, Navy and Air Force incorporating Revolution in Military Affairs technologies in the field of Information Technology, Electronic Warfare, Space Based Systems and Information Warfare is of great
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import. s 7HILE OUR NETWORKS MAY NOT BE extensive enough in the near term, in the medium and long term our dependency on operational, communications and logistics networks are likely to increase. Appropriate counter strategies need to be fashioned. s /N )NDIA S WESTERN BORDERS #HINA HAS very little to do to tie India down given its collusive relationship with Pakistan. China also seeks a transit corridor from southern China to the Indian Ocean via Myanmar. There has also been an intensification of Chinese activity in the Andaman Sea. China has also offered very generous aid to Bangladesh and help to modernise its defence sector. China has increased its trade with Nepal and hopes to augment it through the Tibetan region. It is imperative for India to develop a proactive stand against the escalating ambitions of the Chinese Navy. s )N EVOLVING OUR FUTURE STRATEGY TO DEAL with growing Chinese threat in the Indian Ocean and its forays in Bay of Bengal it would be prudent for India to develop pre-emptive strategies and upgrade its Information Warfare capacities. s 4HE VULNERABILITY OF OUR CARRIER BASED group will be particularly high if the Chinese Navy were operating in the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea close to the Indian coast. This is particularly relevant in the context of Chinese forays in Myanmar and development of Gwadar as the naval facilities assume importance.
the gap between the force levels of the two countries will be significantly larger. s 4HE EMPHASIS ON ESTABLISHING LONG range offensive capabilities, Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Information, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4I2SR) systems, modern training systems and other infrastructural modernisation, coupled with the desire to develop true joint operations capabilities has made its Air Force a formidable opponent for the Indian Air Force to cater for. s )N COMPARISON TO THE HIGH QUALITY AND numerous air defence radars deployed in Tibet Autonomous Region, the Indian surveillance systems and control systems are woefully inadequate. s #HINESE FOCUS ON SPACE WARFARE IS another serious development. Chinese strategy would seem to value the destruction of intelligence-gathering satellites to maintain intelligence and information dominance. Chinese can be expected to interfere and attack our strategic and operational satellite communications especially Global Positioning Satellites. India needs to develop counter space warfare capabilities. The writer is Joint Director at Institute of National Security Studies, New Delhi and Senior Research fellow with Forum for Strategic and Security Studies, New Delhi.
s #HINA S AIR FORCE MODERNISATION n UPGRADING ITS AIR AND SPACE WARFARE capabilities is such that in 10 years time,
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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arms bazaar
MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
joint venture as
catalyst Rohit Srivastava
Joint venture is the buzz in military circles, more so after the huge success of the Indo-Russia supersonic missile project BrahMos. But as in the case of Transfer of Technology for licenced production of foreign weapons in Indian factories that marked the first attempts at indigenisation of military hardware it is not the be all and end all for a military-industrial complex that intends to become self-sustaining. India has made a mess of the licenced production route by not being able to produce inhouse the next generation of weapons based on the experiences of the past arrangement. For the private sector the profit motive matters and how much it ploughs into research and development remains to be seen.
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April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
I
ndian private industry is gearing up to penetrate the huge arms market in India which is one of the world’s largest importers of weapons, with 70 per cent of all military requirements being acquired from foreign vendors. The government has planned to reverse this trend by the end of next decade with 70 per cent of weapons to be manufactured in India. To achieve this end, Indian defence industry needs to raise its engineering standards so that it can swiftly move into new areas of military creativity brought on a combination of research and development and perspective planning of arms requirements of the armed forces.
Private participation The defence industry has come a long way from an era of complete no-no for the private player to Defence Procurement Policy / Procedure-09 which allows ‘Make Indian’. Today when India is the world’s largest weapons importer and there is a serious need to gain self sufficiency, privatisation in the defence industry was something whose
time has come. Indian Defence Public Sector Undertakings have not been able to perform as expected and the Defence Research and Development Organisation could not develop weapon systems keeping cost and time within acceptable frameworks. Most projects have been delayed by decades and with huge cost escalation yet the products have not been able to satisfy the users. Thus we had to import for our requirement. Kelkar committee made recommendations for privatisation of defence industry. This has partially been done. Today as per DPP- 09 Indian manufacturers can come up with their own products, in Make Indian category. Indian defence procurement in next decade is going to be in excess of USD 100 billion. A huge market where Indian industry wishes to contribute saving huge amount of foreign exchange.
Offset as springboard Indian Defence Procurement Policy / Procedure has changed the defence sector for-
ever. In Defence Procurement Policy 2006, India made Offset obligation mandatory for every deal over Rs. 300 crore, planning to spend around USD 100 billion in next ten years, with minimum 30 per cent of offset. This offers a huge business opportunity of USD 30 billion for local industry. The offset policy is providing the opportunity to modernize and develop Indian defence industry. India lacks most of the advanced and critical technology required for producing modern weapons. But Indian industry is vibrant and vast, offset will help it develop manufacturing and technical capabilities which would be the base for next generation weapon development to begin around 2020.
Burgeoning market Indian industry has made rapid strides to grab this large business. The defence industry is growing at annual rate of around 40 per cent which is phenomenal. This rate of growth could be maintained for next decade. Offset obligation has made
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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arms bazaar
MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
Kelkar committee made recommendations for privatisation of defence industry. This has partially been done. Today as per DPP 09 Indian manufacturers can come up with their own products, in Make Indian category. Indian defence procurement in next decade is going to be in excess of USD 100 billion procuring goods from Indian manufacturer a must, thus Indian industry will become part of the supply chain. Indian industry has proven its competitiveness with the best in the world, in terms of quality, scale of production, efďŹ ciency, low cost and high adaptability. In last two decades since liberalisation, Indian manufacturers have acquired the cutting edge technology and have developed human resources for its requirement. In certain segments from being net importer India has progressed to become leading exporter.
Intrinsic capabilities Today India is becoming one of the leading hubs in manufacturing of complete products and spare parts for the military supply chain. India is slowly emerging as the research center for top technological giants. Creativity in design and conďŹ guration, quality assurance and capability to add value to any product at low cost are major characteristics of manufacturing sector. The joint venture has become a win-win situation for both Original Equipment Manufacturers and Indian companies. For offset obligation the former require investment / procurement from Indian companies. Being high technology ďŹ eld Indian industry doesn’t have those speciďŹ c technologies. The OEMs are required to transfer technologies to produce equipment and spare parts, but procuring from local industry will be cost-efďŹ cient thus additional proďŹ t for OEMs while the Indian partners would get the requisite technology which will help them in developing next generation equipment and technology.
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Scope of venture Industry insiders suggest that the OEMs will make Indian joint venture part of global supply chain, the cost-efďŹ ciency achieved will make their product more competitive and will thus make for the tech-transfer which is the most sensitive issue in defence business. One of the most important demands of industry has been to up the cap from 26 per cent to 50 for foreign partner in joint ventures. This is something which government doesn’t want, for strategic and security reasons. One of the major hurdles in transfer of technology is the feeling among the OEMs that they have invested huge amounts of money in developing these technologies and they can’t part away with it so cheap. But the large business opportunity has forced them to accept it reluctantly. The large number of joint ventures between major OEMs and leading Indian companies suggest that Indian market can’t be ignored. Some sources have suggested that all joint ventures are basically equal partnerships where the OEM’s will be compensated through exports and cost-efďŹ ciency.
Human asset One of the major gains for Indian industry is human resource development. These collaborations will provide opportunity for training to Indian technicians in high-tech industry. This will provide capability to develop next upgrades and new products. Make Indian is going to get preference over any other category in future as per DPP-09, which requires Indian companies to come with new products keeping in mind the prospective planning and strategies of armed forces.
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
This is where joint ventures are playing a great role. In the recently held DefExpo2010, NUMEROUS *6 COMPANIES SHOWCASED PRODucts with excellent features, at competitive PRICES 4HESE *6S ARE ALSO AIMING AT THE upgrades of legacy systems, like T-72 tanks.
Pitfalls But the picture is not all that rosy, some of the joint ventures have got stuck with foreign vendors implicated in corruption AND BEING BLACKLISTED THUS PUTTING THE *6 ďŹ rm in jeopardy. The government is not clear in its policy about what part of production will go for offset, the companies could offset the ďŹ nal assembly or technologically insigniďŹ cant parts like seats, paints, cables all adding-up to the obligation amount. The deals where the technology transfer is going to take place, Government of India is going to decide who will acquire the technology. It could be some Defence Public Sector Undertaking or the Defence Research and Development Organisation. One major apprehension of defence industry is that there is no guarantee of orders, even if their products are better. For some security / strategic / secret reasons the order could be given to DPSUs, even if they will just integrate the product after procuring parts and sub-systems from across the globe. Thus the risk involved in developing a new product is immense, in terms of the cost of development. This requires assurance from government of transparency and efďŹ ciency in procurement. Otherwise this rosy picture might not remain so for long and India’s dream of becoming self-sufďŹ cient in defence production may never be realized.
Armamentaria STRATEGIC UPSURGE
Indo-Russian
accord: rock-solid partnership
Dr. Nivedita Das Kundu
The reportage of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s visit to India tended to focus on the defence deals that removed all contentious issues from the table. Lost in the relief over the Gorshkov final solution and the 10year lease of the nuclear attack submarine Nerpa was the significance of cooperation in “fast neutron” technology – a euphemism for fastbreeder nuclear reactors. It is this that can drag India out of the quagmire of the fossil-fuel economy given its vast reserves of thorium, a catalyst that reacts with plutonium to produce more plutonium. In hindsight the Indo-US Nuclear Deal will just be a stepping stone to genuine energy self-sufficiency based on a plutonium fuel cycle.
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April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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Armamentaria STRATEGIC UPSURGE
R
USSIAN 0RIME -INISTER 6LADIMIR Putin’s visit to India in March provided fresh impetus to the strategic partnership between the two countries. He was the architect of formation of the strategic partnership between India and Russia, in the year 2000, which has achieved reasonable success in a decade’s time. This visit reinforced the interests of both States in maintaining their traditionally close and friendly relationship and in strengthening a special Military-Technical Cooperation between the two countries. Russia is India’s most important partner in defence cooperation. Their military ties occupy a special place in the entire spectrum of military technical cooperation. A major part of India’s defence inventory is still of Russian origin and will continue to remain so in the near future.
Intertwined interests Russia is the only country with which India has a formal mechanism of an inter-governmental commission for military-technical cooperation, which meets annually un der the chairmanship of the two defence ministers. India and Russia have further extended the tenure of the Indo-Russian Inter-Governmental Commission on Military-Technical Cooperation by another 10 years on the expiry of its present term (in 2010). The basic implication of the Russian-Indian military-technical cooperation is that politico-military interests of the two countries complement each other and it determines their mutual interest in the development of those ties. In addition, Indo-Russian ties are based on strong historic relations, as contacts between the two countries began way back in the 1960s. It was Soviet supplies that ensured the development of the Indian armed forces, and it was Soviet weapons and hardware that India used in its conflict with its neighbouring States, including the victorious 1971 war. Joint participation in long-term R&D projects and joint production of sophisticated military equipment are the highlights of the current Indo-Russian military and technical cooperation. Military ties between the two countries are developing steadily and include joint research and development, production, marketing, regular cooperation between the different branches of armed forces and joint training exercises. In September 2005, the defence forces of the two countries held their first-ever joint airborne military exercise at the Mahajan Field Firing Range (MFFR) near Bikaner. The exercise, coordinated by 140 military personnel from both countries, introduced the concept of ‘interoperability’ against a counter-terrorism backdrop.
technical cooperation are a result of increasing competitive market conditions. The Indian market has always been open and competitive. In the 1960s and 1970s, the Soviet prevalence in the supply of weapons to the Indian armed forces was indisputable. The situation began to change in the 1980s, when France sold to India a significant number of aircraft and Germany sold a batch of submarines. In the 1990s, Israel entered the Indian market and has by now become the second largest exporter of The two countries also signed an agreement weapons and defence technologies to India, for joint development of multi-role transport ready to crowd out Russia as the leader. However, India thought of diversification aircraft to replace the ageing An-32 fleet of the Indian Air Force. Hindustan Aeronautics when the defence enterprises in the postSoviet Russia changed from State to private Limited and Rosoboronexport will be the and joint-stock enterprises in an abrupt project partners. The investment of USD manner. This created severe problems for 600 million will be shared equally by the two countries; the Russian contribution will the Indian defence industry to adjust to be paid out of the Rupee-Rouble debt India these changes. owes to Russia. (The envisaged requirement Another problem cropped up when cooperation ties and production chains is 100 aircraft for the Russian Air Force, 45 with former Soviet states were broken for the IAF, and sale of 60 aircraft to third countries.) India and Russia have also agreed hastily. This created problems for India in acquiring spare parts for Russian made to jointly develop a fifth generation fighter weapons, as around 22,000 different aircraft (FGFA) which will have supersonic components were still being imported from manoeuvrability and cruising ability, various parts of the former Soviet Union. long-range strike and high-endurance air Hence, severe problems were faced as many defence capabilities. The development and certification of this aircraft is expected to be vital enterprises appeared to be behind the borders of Russia. completed in the next six years.
One significant example of joint defence production is the BrahMos (BrahmaputraMoskva) anti-ship cruise missile, which can be launched from submarine, ship, aircraft and land-based mobile autonomous launchers. Some 20 Indian and 10 Russian companies are involved in its production. The project has a distinctly commercial angle, though the supply of the missile will be restricted to friendly developing countries. Now Russia and India are also jointly developing new BrahMos Cruise Missile i.e., BrahMos Block 2.
Hiccups Indo-Russian defence cooperation also includes refitting of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier, which will join the Indian Navy, as INS Vikramaditya by December 2013. However, some problems came up between the two countries when Russia demanded USD 3.5 billion from India for the aircraft carrier, Gorshkov. This was the second time that Russia sought a price increase from the original contracted amount of USD 1.5 billion. Given the hike in its price, and the further delay in the date of delivery it created controversy. Nonetheless, as the Gorshkov deal is symbolic of the defence cooperation between the two countries, this problem was resolved by the two States. India has paid an additional USD 102 million to Russia to speed up the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier refit project. With the release of additional funds, India has now paid a total of USD 602 million for Admiral Gorshkov, which is currently undergoing repair and refit at SevMash shipyard in north Russia. Now the aircraft carrier will come with a price tag of USD 2.35 billion. The two countries have also signed a USD 1.5 billion contract for the supply of 29 more MiG-29K carrier-based fighter jets to India. Russian side also promised to complete deliveries of the previously-ordered MiG-29K fighters to India by the end of 2010.
Joint development
New rivals
These kinds of exercises are being conducted on a regular basis both in India and Russia.
The principal challenges that are affecting the prospects of Indo-Russian military-
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April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
Therefore, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, India deputed its defence personnel in the States of the former Soviet Union to find out about the defence factories or original equipment manufacturers located there so as to establish direct contacts with them. But this approach was not appreciated by Russia; therefore, India had to deal with these States (for defence cooperation) through Russia.
The principal challenges that are affecting the prospects of Indo-Russian military-technical cooperation are a result of increasing competitive market conditions. However, India thought of diversification when the defence enterprises in the post-Soviet Russia changed from State to private and joint stock enterprises in an abrupt manner. This created severe problems for the Indian defence industry to adjust to these changes
Commercial secrets Another problem that came up in post-Soviet Russia was due to the lack of transparency; crucial information mainly related to procurement and research and development, is still classified and details are available only to a few. It seems Russia’s new commercial secrecy considerations persist; its traditional inclination is to restrict the availability of information. The data available in the public domain on defence issues is sometimes difficult to reconcile with data published in the various sources; most agencies are not even forthcoming about providing details. The decision process is, thus, all the more difficult. One significant challenge that Russia faces in the Indian market today is that until recently, its offers looked ideal for the Indian market because of their cost efficiency. However, after almost 10 years of fast economic growth and at the same time, with the demand for more high-tech weapons growing significantly from the Indian side (the purchase of the super expensive systems as Poseidon is a case in point), the situation has changed dramatically. Even so, Russia has till now maintained its solid position in the Indian defence sector.
Strong partnership One of the important sectors where weapons of Russian origin will continue to dominate is that of the main battle tanks. India has launched a major programme of direct purchasing and licenced production of T-90s; it is now showing an interest in joining the Russian programme of the T-95 new generation main battle tank. Thus, it seems Russia will retain a considerable presence or even dominate, in such sectors of the market as surface vessels of the destroyer and frigate type, anti-ship missiles, air refuellers. Troop carrying helicopters might also enter strongly in the segment of aircraft carriers, and in multipurpose nuclear submarines. Russia’s response to the new challenges that emerge in the Indian market, is a shift from simple trade relations between the seller and buyer to implementation of joint defenceindustrial projects where the risk-sharing partnerships emerge. The creation of the PJ-10 anti-ship missile under the BrahMos programme became a pilot project of that kind. In addition, under the multi-role transport airplane project, the two countries plan to develop and produce, in series for their air forces, a medium size transport aircraft with carrying capacity of 18 metric tonnes. In general, Russia and India are still strong partners in the defence sector. For India, Russia is also considered as a reliable source of sub-strategic weapons like nuclear powered submarines or long range bombers. Thereby, along with the new challenges that Russia faces in the Indian market, new opportunities also opened up mainly due to the recent changes in the structure of the Russian defence industry and its keenness to maintain its stronghold in this sector.
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Armamentaria STRATEGIC UPSURGE
north-east India
NEFARIOUS NEXUS
The on-again, off-again style of counter-insurgency operations against the Assam militants tends to give them opportunity to revive and resuscitate. An uninterrupted no-holds-barred strategy must complement the extremely generous steps taken by the Government of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh. As the history of the region has shown such a moment can be transient so let us make the best of it. The underground organisation has already lost its USP by abandoning the “foreigners” issue at the behest of the Pakistani and Bangladeshi intelligence agencies.
Nerpa lease In the recent visit of Prime Minister Putin India signed with Russia an agreement to acquire the nuclear-powered attack submarine for prowling deep under the seas. India and Russia also confirmed the 10-year lease of the K-152 Nerpa submarine. The final lease and training agreements for Akula-II class nuclear submarine have also been confirmed and India is sending defence officers to Russia for training. This team will first undergo intensive training on 12,000-tonne Nerpa and then they will bring it to India. This lease agreement was signed between the two countries in the year 2004. In this agreement India was supposed to fund part of construction costs with the initial deposit of USD 650 million for the part of construction of Nerpa’s at Komsomolsk on the Amur shipyard in Russia. Nerpa was supposed to be inducted in the year 2008 by Indian Navy as INS Chakra but the process got delayed due to certain technical flaws. However, at present Nerpa is fully-operational. During the Soviet period India had leased a Charlie-I class (Russian nuclear submarine) from 1988 to 1991.This was also named as INS Chakra. The new INS Chakra will have the ability to fire nukes at land, air and sea targets. Though Nerpa is nuclear-propelled, it will not come to India as armed with its long-range nuclear-tipped missiles due to international treaties like the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). But
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it will perform in other ways, like it will train Indian sailors for operating nuclear submarines.
Submarine deterrent This will be supported by India’s own nuclear submarine INS Arihant, when it will become operational in the year 2011-2012. Nerpa will be used to provide protection to INS Arihant, which will be the launch platform for nukes after it becomes operational. It will be armed with torpedoes and 300-km Klub-S cruise missiles, Nerpa will be a silent as well as a lethal hunter for the enemy submarines and warships. Nerpa will assist India to achieve its objective of having three SSBNs (nuclear-powered submarines with long-range missiles) and six SSNs (nuclear-powered attack submarines) in the longer term. Although, differences arise over certain issues on certain occasions, the overall parallelism in the Indo-Russian relationship definitely symbolises the trust that still exists between them. In spite of such notable defence co-operation, there is a need to develop an institutional mechanism that will link Institutions and thereby spur innovation as well as commercialisation of new technologies. Investment projects also need serious information support, which is lacking at the moment. On the whole, it is necessary to publicise the positive experiences and growth of both countries, which will help people in both countries
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
to orient themselves according to present realities and will boost bilateral co-operation in various fields. Prime Minister Putin’s recent India visit signifies that at present both countries pay considerable value to this strategic partnership. India and Russia took their strategic partnership to a new height by signing number of significant defence agreements. The outcome of Prime Minister Putin’s visit was rich in quality and content as well as very substantive. Mr Putin’s assurance of not developing military cooperation with Pakistan, taking into account the concerns of the Indian friends was extremely satisfying statement which reassured that today India-Russia relationship has reached a stage where any change in the leadership in either country or closeness with any other country would not make much of a difference to this rock-solid p partnership between the two countries. The writer is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), New Delhi. Earlier she worked with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). She has received her Doctorate from School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. She is presentlly a post doctoral fellow at Woodrow Wilson Centre, Washington D.C.
Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Arvind Sharma
the ULFA
conundrum April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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north-east India
NEFARIOUS NEXUS
A
rabinda Rajkhowa, the Chairman of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) was allegedly arrested while trying to enter India in the first week of December 2009. Whether arrested at the border or set up by the Government of Bangladesh, to be handed over to Indian authorities, Rajkhowa is in custody. This follows the arrest of two other important leaders namely Sashadhar Choudhary, the
military chief and his threats to journalists and intellectuals of the state who dare to oppose the diktat of the banned outfit’.
Illegal migration Migration into Assam has been an ongoing phenomenon which historically goes back to times prior to the British Raj. However, the influx of refugees, consequent to the Pakistan Army crackdown of March 1971
independent Assam and to ensure that foreigners are ousted from the state’. It launched violent attacks not only against “foreigners” but also against mainland India’s interests viz. oil pipelines, railways and other infrastructure. Under the leadership of Arabinda Rajkhowa, Paresh Barua, Anup Chetia and Pradeep Gogoi, it became a powerful insurgent group. Openly fighting a guerrilla war, it received
facilities to the north eastern states through Bangladesh. For the past decade, the Assam insurgents along with other insurgent groups have started levying ‘taxes’ on the transport ferrying stores at different places in Assam. This is in the knowledge of local authorities. Regrettably, some of them are also in league with them, at various levels. This nexus is thriving at the cost of the common man.
Counter insurgency Counter insurgency operations were launched by the Army starting with ‘Operation Bajrang’ in November 1990. After some success had been achieved, at the behest of the state Government, the operation was called off and troops withdrawn to barracks. United Liberation Front of Asom activities saw an upsurge thereafter, resulting in launch of Operation Rhino I in September 1991 and Rhino II in March 1992. These operations weakened the organisation’s capabilities, but did not affect its base. Operations by the Army were intermittent, because whenever the militants were under pressure, the latter would nudge their ‘political cohorts’
Foreign Secretary and Chitraban Hazarika, the Finance Secretary who were picked up a month earlier on the Tripura border. Paresh Barua, the C-in-C is still at large, having fled Dhaka when he was named in an FIR in connection with the ‘Chittagong Arms Haul’ case; he is reportedly in Yunnan province of China and frequently visits Thailand. In early January, Paresh Barua issued a diktat to his cadres to target all Security Forces and the police. He also ‘threatened all those who oppose or criticise the outfit’s policies and demands, with dire consequences’. The Journalists Forum of Assam strongly condemned the ‘callous and irresponsible comments made by self-styled
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in East Pakistan, was resented by the local population. In July 1979, the All Assam Students Union, backed by the All Assam Gana Sangram Parishad, launched an ‘Anti Foreigners Agitation’ to stop illegal migrants’ participation in Assam’s elections, which rapidly turned violent. As a result of this violence, President’s Rule was imposed in Assam in December 1979. The agitation however, continued till signing of the Assam Accord in August 1985.
Foreign support United Liberation Front of Asom was set up on 07 April 1979, a few weeks before the start of the anti-foreigners agitation. Its aim was ‘to establish a sovereign
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
help and training from the Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence, National Socialist Council of Nagaland and the Burmese Kachin insurgents. By mid-1980s, the militant organisation’s strength had grown to approximately 4,000 hardcore militants, supported by a few thousand sympathisers. Over a period of time, ideology has been forsaken for enterprise. Its cadres have found extortion to be a safer option and a more gainful pursuit. All commodities, stores, products which are moving into Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura from the rest of India, have perforce to move by road through Assam, as we have no transit
to intercede and have the Army ‘pulled off their back’. Operation Golden Bird, conducted with the help of the Myanmar Army in 1995, did not produce the desired results as the latter’s participation was perfunctory. The Bhutan crackdown of December 2003 proved to be far more successful and did seriously erode its capabilities. The blasts in August 2004 at Dhemaji, engineered by the terrorists, resulted in a number of school children being killed; this was a turning point wherein the insurgent group lost public sympathy.
Surrenders Army has continued people friendly operations against the militants over the
last few years, notwithstanding interference by the politicians. These have adversely affected the underground outfit and resulted in a number of surrenders. A very significant event was the unilateral ceasefire of 24 June 2008 and subsequent surrender by about 250 cadres of A and C Companies of 28 Battalion, defying the leadership based in Dhaka. This group has sought expulsion of Bangladeshi migrants from Assam; an aspect on which, for the last few years, it has maintained a stoic silence, notwithstanding that it was once its raison d’etre. Why is it that the militant leaders now fulminate only on ‘sovereignty’ and no longer speak about ‘illegal migrants’? It is a well known fact that senior leaders of militants are running business enterprises in Dhaka under the patronage of the Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence and Directorate General of Field Intelligence (DGFI) of Bangladesh. Muslim fundamentalists are known to be settling in the north-east amongst Bangladeshi migrants, as per the design of Pakistan with the intent - “to keep the north-east on the boil, as part of their strategy of thousand cuts”. The militants
thus have no option but to abide by the diktats of their mentors.
Talks As mentioned earlier, the militants managed to get security force operations suspended whenever the ‘going got tough’. The period of respite has always been utilised to recoup losses, reorganise, re-group and then launch operations again. As for talks with the ULFA, the first serious round took place in 1998 at New Delhi. Then in May 2001, Tarun Gogoi government’s offer of talks was nullified by underground group’s proposal of a referendum on the issue of independence. Subsequently, in June 2005, a Peoples
Consultative Group was set up in Assam, to hold parleys with New Delhi. It was a front organisation set up by the militants, so that they could use them as ‘decoys’ and not be responsible for any decision taken by them. On scrutiny of the list of members of People’s Consultative Group, the credentials of most of the members were found to be suspect and the Government rightly decided that talks, if any, would be held directly with the leaders and not by proxy. Thereafter, Dr. Mamoni Goswami offered and functioned as a mediator between the Government and militants for some time, but due to an inflexible approach on both sides, the effort did not succeed.
Stalemate Insurgency in Assam has been ongoing for over three decades. An appraisal of the current ground situation indicates that though public support has waned and counter insurgency operations by the security forces continuing, the militants still retain the ability to randomly attack targets anywhere, at their choosing. Why have efforts at conflict resolution not fructified and the situation stalemated?
Muslim fundamentalists are known to be settling in the north east amongst Bangladeshi migrants, as per the design of Pakistan with the intent - “keep the NE on the boil, as part of their strategy of thousand cuts”. The militants thus have no option but to abide by the diktats of their mentors
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north-east India
NEFARIOUS NEXUS
This needs serious deliberation.
Insurgency in the northeast has developed into a small scale industry with development funds and other financial assistance provided by the Central Government, becoming the major source of its sustenance. Elements of the nefarious politicobureaucrat-insurgent nexus do not want restoration of peace in the region and will continue to stonewall efforts towards negotiations 66
Amongst other reasons, the militants have persisted with their rhetoric of ‘sovereignty’, notwithstanding the fact that only a minuscule populace now supports this demand. It however, must be realised that this demand is unlikely to be diluted, as long as the Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence retains control over the senior ULFA leadership. They are also unlikely to agree to a ceasefire as long they have support from Pakistan and covert support from China. Even if at some stage its leadership agrees to a ceasefire, they will want the model adopted with the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak-Muivah) to be replicated, i.e. to keep cadres in designated camps with their weapons and to carry them when they move out, ostensibly for their protection! It needs mention that retention of weapons by the Naga groups despite the ceasefire, has resulted in killings between both the factions and the Isak-Muivah group having established a functional parallel government in Nagaland!
Nefarious nexus As mentioned earlier, the underground movements have institutionalised extortion by levying taxes on transport
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ferrying stores to other states through Assam, demanding large sums of money from corporate houses, businessmen and contractors. Regrettably, some politicians and bureaucrats are in league with them and involved in these nefarious activities. This nexus does not want conflict resolution but prefers status quo, as they also are the beneficiaries of funds which are siphoned from those being provided by the Central Government for purposes of development projects. Consequent to 26/11, the Central Government has reviewed its policies and formulated some fresh guidelines, which to an extent were evident in their approach to the ceasefire with militant group operating in the North Cachar Hills of Assam. It has accepted the ceasefire only after the DHD(J) group agreed to surrender its arms. Government has also indicated that the demand for ‘sovereignty’ is unacceptable and a solution has to be found within the framework of the Indian Constitution.
Way forward United Liberation Front of Asom has already started shifting its base(s) to Myanmar as the Awami League Government in Bangladesh has started
evicting them from their safe havens on its soil. The Myanmar Government has also agreed to launch operations against bases set up by Indian insurgent groups in their country. Resultantly, the underground movement is likely to be under pressure; this must be further intensified by relentless operations by the security forces in Assam. Alongside, the Government must intensify efforts to engage the militants in talks to achieve conflict resolution. If and when talks take place with the ULFA leaders, the Government team must include political representative(s) of the Centre and of the state Government, besides their advisors. Regrettably, in the past, the state Governments have not been involved in negotiations, be it with Naga insurgents, Bodos or others thus providing the former an alibi when things go wrong. Involvement of politicians in the confabulations is imperative as they are empowered to take decisions and their commitment to conflict resolution is mandatory to ensure implementation of decisions taken. Further, a ceasefire must be linked with surrender of weapons; protection of cadres in designated camps thereafter, should be the responsibility of the state. Another important aspect is the rehabilitation of surrendered cadres. The present policy of giving them a dole of Rs. 2000 per month without earnest effort towards their resettlement, is counter-productive. Cadres who do not have criminal cases against them should be screened as per existing norms and recruited into the police / paramilitary forces. Others should
be given vocational training under the aegis of the state and thereafter helped to get jobs (Incidentally, some Army formations in Assam are already imparting vocational training to surrendered insurgents). Criminal cases against cadres must be expeditiously disposed off so that they can thereafter get on with their lives. Amongst the likely demands of the Assam militants, an aspect which merits careful consideration is the ‘Foreigners Issue’. Besides working out the policy for their identification and determining their status, there is a need to introduce the system of ‘Work permits’ for them, as prevalent in many countries. Along with expeditious completion of the border fencing, there is an urgent need to strengthen the border check-posts in terms of manning by competent Police and Customs officials of high integrity. Insurgency in the north-east, over a period of time, has developed into a small scale industry with development funds and other financial assistance provided by the Central Government, becoming the major source of its sustenance. Elements of the nefarious politico-bureaucrat-insurgent nexus do not want restoration of peace in the region and thus will continue to stonewall efforts towards negotiations. The security forces, over a period of time have been able to dominate the insurgents by sustained operations and have reduced violence to manageable levels.Time is now opportune to effect political consolidation. The national polity regrettably still remains divided even on important matters of internal security and only await
opportunities to deride each other rather than evolve consensual policies to eliminate this scourge.
China link Our political leadership must capitalise on the fact that majority of the ULFA leadership is now in the country. Efforts must continue with both Myanmar and Bangladesh to have Paresh Barua also brought in. If definitive Intelligence inputs of his presence in Yunnan are available, we should not hesitate and take up the issue with China. Notwithstanding his absence, concerted efforts must continue to get the militant leadership in India to commence negotiations. Continued violent activities are neither beneficial to the militants nor to the populace and are only stymieing development of the state. Therefore, all efforts must be made to ensure that ULFA, the major insurgent group, comes to the negotiation table at the earliest. Then the situation will normalise catalytically in the state and it will have a cascading effect in the whole of north-east region.
The writer is a former General Officer Commandingin-Chief of the Eastern Army Command. His operational responsibility encompassed borders with China, Myanmar and Bangladesh; all troops including Assam Rifles deployed in the north-eastern states for counter-insurgency operations were part of his command. An infantry officer, in his four decades plus of service in the Army, he has dealt with insurgency in J&K and the north-eastern states.
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defence industry NEXT-GEN FIGHTER
T-50
Russia flies its first Fifth-Gen Fighter Aircraft Rohit Srivastava
With T-50 maiden flight Russia has displaced US as sole manufacturer of fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA), scheduled for induction in later half of next decade. It will be jointly developed by India and Russia boosting both nations’ air strike capabilities.
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ndian air force is facing fast depletion of its front line fighters due to delays in acquisition of advanced aircrafts. Sukhoi’s Fifth Generation Fighter’s maiden flight came as a great hope for Indian Air force. First aircraft to be completely built post soviet era is an effort by Russians to regain technological edge in military aviation. F-22 is the only FGFA operational at present in the world, developed during 90’s and became operational in this decade. F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is another FGFA under development by US and its allies. T-50 is said to compare well with F-35 Lightning II. Stealth technology is the most significant characteristic of FGFA, defined by very low Radar Cross Section, making it invisible to air surveillance systems providing capability to strike without warning or interception. T-50 has RCS of around 0.5m, meaning the aircraft will
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have radar signature of a metal sheet of half meter. Stealth features also include reduced heat, sound and other emissions to achieve Low Observability. Next generation air combat requires fighters to evade every possible means of detections. T-50 has been developed by Advanced Front-Line Aviation Complex (PAK FA) for Russian air force. In 2002 Sukhoi design bureau won competitive tender to develop T-50. Tikhomirov Institute of Instrument Design has been developing the radar for this air craft, which has also developed Irbis radar for Su 35 BM Flanker. On January 29, 2010, maiden flight of 47 minutes was conducted in Komsomolskon-Amur, after one year of trial of the first prototype which was ready by February 2009. The design of the T-50 was approved in December 2004. KNAAPO aircraft manufacturer based in Komsomolsk-on-Amur has manufatured the prototype. T-50 specifications are similar to Su27 Flankers, with around 30 metric tons of takeoff weight powered by 117S turbofan engines by Saturn. The plane is capable of take off from air strip as short as 400 meters, capable of flying at around 2.0 mach with flight range of 5000 km capable of repeated refuelling. Electronic capabilities of the aircraft comprise of “electronic pilot” functionality, advanced phased-array antenna radar, which decreases information load on the pilot allowing him to focus on tactical missions. On-board avionics allow real-time data exchange with ground control and flight group. T-50 armament comprises of eight advanced air to air R-77 missiles, with two longrange missiles of around 400 kilometer range, making this aircraft a potent fighter in
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
air superiority and ground attack roles. The aircraft would go into mass production from 2015, in Komsomolsk-on-Amur. Series production in India could start from 2017. The aircraft is around 30 per cent cheaper to F-22 Raptors, would cost around Rs. 400 crores a piece to India, making Indian Air Force only the third air force after US and Russia to operate Fifth generation stealth fighters. India holds 25 percent stake in this joint venture. the deal between the nations is yet to be finalized. India would be contributing in avionics and composites for the airframe of the aircraft. India has already demonstrated its capabilities in these areas. LCA has composite airframe developed by Indian scientists, the expertise acquired here will be applied in the airframe developed by Indian scientists, the expertise acquired here will be applied in the airframe development of T-50. Similarly in the field of avionics India has already demonstrated its capabilities by developing them for Su 30mki, latest ones are using Indian avionics. These will be further upgraded to the requirements of the fifth generation Fighter. Indian version will be twin seater with slightly different avionics. This programme could cost around USD 10 billion to Indian exchequer. Long range super cruise,
highly manoeuvrable, very high level of net centric capability, potent aircraft which can ensure air superiority of IAF to other rivals in the region. MMRCA trials are going fast and it is expected that the trials will be over in a year. India would require another year for evaluation of data and finalising the deal. The deal is expected to be signed around 2012 and it will take around two years to get first aircraft which will be around 2014. If any delays take place things might get delayed for a year or two which will bring induction of both MMRCA and T-50 around the same time. This will bring huge cost burden on India with two aircrafts of different generation getting inducted together. Not a very wise thing to do. Indian Air Force is short of its sanctioned strength and is fast losing its Soviet era aircrafts to accidents and decommissioning. To regain its squadron strength and improving air force capabilities India is buying MMRCA fourth ++ generation aircrafts. But with fifth generation aircrafts being available, Indian defence planners will have to do some quick thinking and calculations in financial and politico-military terms.
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cyberspace DATA SECURITY
Cyber terrorism:
counter-measures Om
possible form of attacks to our critical cyber infrastructure.
It sounds scary no matter how one frames the issue. Clearly there is need to accelerate the requisite counter-measures suggested by those who know the full dimension of the problem. The tragedy could well be that the demands of Information Technology could carry within itself the seeds of insecurity.
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ndia has been fighting terrorists for last two decades. During this time numerous forms of terrorism emerged, latest being cyber terrorism. This high-tech form can cause immense damage to most critical infrastructures, without firing a single bullet. Our intelligence agencies have been warning about it. Recent bomb blasts had their finger prints. Now the question arises how well have we geared up for this new and fast emerging threat? We at National Cyber Security of India keep asking this of ourselves.
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Unprepared Our preparation to counter cyber threats is far from satisfactory. A survey of the cyber crime cells in different institutions across India paints not so bright a picture, even after using the best technology available. There is an urgent need to spread awareness across the intelligence and policing community through workshops and seminars. Cyber crime cells in India began with the purpose of checking crime related with spams and sleaze mails. But the status today has got more complicated, with cases reported being more technical. Phishing,
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The immediate threat to India is from our neighbouring countries, whose main objective will be to destabilise our economy by launching attacks on our banking and financial network, similarly essential commodity related network and satellite technologies.
Large loophole
another form of mail related nuisance is also being reported extensively. The detection rate of these spammers is not very high, something to be worried about. Around one out of four cases get solved, but the rate of conviction is still miserable.
There are intelligence reports which suggest the easiest way to attack India is through cyber network. Although it is cost intensive but will spare them of risking manpower and impact of such an attack will be immense on national economy and infrastructure. Different intelligence agencies have come to similar conclusion of possible acts of cyber vandalism, destruction of essential commodityrelated sites and phishing. There is also a possibility of terrorist groups infiltrating our cyberspace and then sending virus to enemy nation, to destabilise their network leading to a cyber war between the nations.
New techniques
Three-stage attack
Cyber cells need to keep upgrading and deploying new tactics to counter cyber hacks. Cyber crime is one domain where there can’t be enough policing. We are good as long as we are successful in preventing attack, or solving one. It is time we educate our people and concerned agencies about the
Cyber war on India is going to be fought in three stages. First the enemy would bring down the control systems of defense installations, Parliament, railways and airports. Second, they would attack financial services such as banks and stock markets. Finally, ESCOMs and other utilities, services
will be taken over. Now this is a dangerous scenario. It is going to create panic and if it succeeds completely it is going to cause immense destruction and will take days to restore services. Although terrorist attacks are going to be lethal yet the worst will be when an enemy nation attacks our network through Distributed Denial of Services attacks. In this the bandwidth of a targeted system is flooded, which keeps multiplying and ends in a bot-net. India’s cyberspace has been attacked in the past but those have not been of such large scale. Most of the attacks have been targeted towards the telecom sector. Our telecom infrastructure is strong enough to survive such attacks, however, to maintain this status the systems must be constantly upgraded.
Counter-measures Now the question arises, what measures India needs to take to counter cyber terrorism? The response needs to be a combined effort of all the security and intelligence agencies with support from communication network companies. There is need to improve the cyber crime police stations. The process in this regard has begun and this writer is part of the team which is overlooking this. Engineers from reputed IT firms have been hired to assist in this, but there is need to recruit full time professionals. National Cyber Security of India has suggested that the latest batch of recruits
in a cyber cell would be computer and law graduates. The writer in one of the seminars said, we would prefer having this combination since we need someone who has expertise in both computer applications as well as law since both are interlinked here in this case. New batches of these graduates have already arrived and they are being sent to several training programmes. Last year the Ministry of Finance upgraded its infrastructure to prevent cyber strikes. They have introduced a two token system, which mandates that a person carry with him a normal password and also a token that generates pin codes in real time. While logging-in the person will have to apply both. In sensitive areas like defence, the use of personal laptops should be banned and very few systems should be connected to both internet and intranet. Cyber security can’t be tackled in isolation by any nation. It requires joint effort with other technologically capable nations. However, India is not a signatory to the 45-nation international convention on cyber crimes. Moreover, India still awaits a legal framework on cyber attacks. National Cyber Security of India, is committed to secure the nation’s valuable data from cyber threats, prevent hacking and cyber terrorism.
So be safe online! Om is founder and promoter of National Cyber Security of India New Delhi. Co-contributor - Vivek Parmar (core member of National Cyber Security of India).
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defence r and d PROPELLING GROWTH
DRDO: Self-reliance in The raison d’etre for creating the Defence Research and Development Organisation was self-reliance in military hardware driven, in the first instance, by licenced production of foreign weapons. Eventual self-sufficiency through capability building and “leapfrogging” obsolescent technology to create state-of-the-art weaponry was the intention. In echnologies that most nations will not part with for love or money India has made significant progress. Missiles are one such.
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armaments
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defence r and d PROPELLING GROWTH
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ndigenous defence technology has grown steadily over the years. Defence Research and Development Organisation came up in 1958 with merger of Defence Science Organisation with Technical Development Establishments of Army and Directorate of Technical Development and Production. What began as an inspection agency in the 1950s became a technology giant, developing ballistic missiles to main battle tanks. This apex military research and development institution has emerged as the leading defence system and technology development centre in the country. Defence research and defence technology in India has grown in conjunction with Defence Public Sector Undertakings and more recently private industry.
Insufficient investment This development has been funded by the Government of India and private sector. The research and development investment as percentage of gross domestic product is much less than that of other developing nations like China and South Korea etc. India’s investment is still around less
than 1 per cent whereas China’s is 2.5 per cent. The need for newer weapon systems has increased with time as the requirements have changed. Today the fourth generation warfare has diminished the chances of full blown conventional warfare. Future wars will be fought in multi-dimension and targeted towards Exclusive Economic Zones, space, information, communication, infrastructure – critical and commercial assets and energy resources spread across the globe. Future defence capability must ensure foolproof security of these critical assets.
Multi-dimensional warfare This would require ability to deal with out of area contingencies which could only be fought in a net-centric environment. Multi-dimensionality of the future theatre requires protection from fratricide and collateral damage, needs precision, accuracy, lethality, speed in every weapon system. Open architecture, modular, intelligent, stealthier, directional fire power,
enhanced immunity suitable for multi-role net-centric scenario and all-weather all-environment capability. Every commander today aspires for real time, situational awareness, with multi-sensor data fusion, identification friend or foe ability, and a secured data link. In immediate foreseeable future these are the requirements of weapon systems which India must acquire. India needs to develop these technologies on its own for strategic independence. Every acquisition brings with it strategic baggage. The Defence Research and Development Organisation has been involved in developing these critical technologies. Having developed these technologies it is in the process of transferring them to either the eight Defence Public Sector Undertakings or to private industry that has the engineering capability to handle the job.
Military n civil synergy Military technologies also have spinoffs for civilian use. Young scientists who have worked in defence research are
The Defence Research and Development Organisation sees itself as the system designer and integrator and will develop critical technologies, with strategic and security sensitivity. Private industry on its part needs to invest in the research and development and create critical component manufacturing capabilities.
The Defence Research and Development Organisation sees itself as the system designer and integrator and will develop critical technologies, with strategic and security sensitivity. Private industry on its part needs to invest in the research and development and create critical component manufacturing capabilities 74
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
today working in the private companies developing technologies for civil, military and dual use. In the process expanding the technologies across the industry.
Major Defence Research and Development Organisation activities have been divided into flagship programmes and development projects. At present it employs 30,000 persons, including 7,000 scientists, in its 50 laboratories spread across the country. The research is conducted under four research boards, namely, Aeronauticals Research and Development Board, Armament Research Board, Naval Research Board and Life Sciences Research Board. These work with other research institutes and technology institutions across India, developing cutting edge technologies through collaborations and consultation.
Dedicated laboratories Eight technology clusters have been created namely, Aeronauticals, Missiles, Armaments, Electronics, Materials, Combat Engineering, Naval and Life Sciences. The Aeronautics cluster is engaged in Light Combat Aircraft, Kaveri engine, unmanned aerial vehicles like Lakshya, Nishant and Airborne Early Warning and Command systems aircraft. The Light Combat Aircraft has onboard advanced avionics, integrated Electronic Warfare suite and multi-mode pulse Doppler radar. Air frame has advanced composite materials for light weight, quadruplex fly-by-wire system for multi-role employment of the fighter aircraft for both Navy and Indian Air Force. The Missile cluster is involved in
development of ballistic and cruise missiles for the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme, which includes, Prithvi, Agni, Akash, Trishul and Nag. Prithvi single stage, liquid propelled, nuclear capable, tactical battlefield surface-to-surface ballistic missile, has three variants, Prithvi I (150 km) Prithvi II (250 km) and Dhanush naval variant. Agni with two variants has been accepted for deployment, with Agni 1 (700 km) Agni II (2000 km). Akash is a surface-toair missile, medium-range, multi-target air defence system with integral ramjet engine. This system has been accepted by both Army and Air Force for air defence. Nag is a third generation, solid propellant, anti-tank missile with top attack capability. It can be launched from mobile launcher Namica and from helicopters. Trishul is low level quick reaction point defence surface-to-air missile. Its ground electronics and radar vehicle has also been created and missile development trials are on. Another landmark missile from DRDO is the BrahMos joint venture between Russia and India, supersonic cruise missile with antiship and land attack variants with 290 km range, is the best in its category in the world.
Electronic warfare Laboratories in Electronics cluster are working in the electronic warfare, radar, command and control, electronic support measures, sensors and communications. Sangraha, is integrated electronic system for Navy and Samyukta for Army. Divya drishti for hostile air communication interception has been developed. Weapon locating radar, battlefield surveillance radar, Rajendra multi-target, phased array radar, combat net radio and sitcom terminal are fully developed and have been handed over to services. For airborne platforms radar warning receivers, airborne signal intelligence systems, mission computers, display processor have been developed.
Naval system group has developed Humsa - hull mounted sonar; towed array sonar Nagans; submarine sonars - Ushus and Mihir and helicopter based dunking sonar. Varunastra, ship-launched heavy torpedo is undergoing development and underwater telephone systems and submarine escape sets are being tested.
Munitions Armament laboratories have developed INSAS small arms which have been inducted into service in large numbers. Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launch system has been accepted by Army. Fin stabilized, armour piercing, warhead blast, fragment blast, shaped charged munitions have been accepted for missiles and rockets. Material clusters have been developing advanced material, polymers, process paints and coating for defence applications. Absorbent materials for submarine filters, Piezo electric crystals, infra-red resistant paints and Gun recoil fluids for Main Battle Tank. Life Science laboratories have developed nuclear, biological and chemical warfare kits, NBC reconnaissance vehicle and NBC water purification system. They are also involved in biological materials for human and animal usage, survival rations, processed foods, combo-pack rations, The projects are in collaboration with Indian Institutes of Technology and universities. The Defence Research and Development Organisation has been working with leading Indian companies and SMEs in product development and serial production. This has contributed in dissemination of cutting edge technology to SMEs and adding to country’s technical expertise which will improve our industrial capability in the long run.
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security challenges MODERN EQUIPMENT
Top security products
Finger print door lock This product uses double locking mechanism by just accessing your finger print and leaving you assured about safety. The gadget allows 150 finger prints and 450 passwords capacity. The identification time is less than 3 seconds. It also comes with a pair of keys for emergency operations. Hi-tech blue light technology enables for accessing during night. Operates with alkaline batteries. Manufactured by Alba Urmet.
Sweta Sehgal
Technology provides a modern and more reliable way of protecting our homes and offices with various security systems available in the market. Security products are growing in sophistication as security threats are becoming more ingenious. There is an increasing awareness of external threats and consequently organisations are implementing solutions to detect threats. Here is an array of different security equipment that are crafted to face the advancing security challenges.
Finger print door lock
Turnstile gates
Face / Iris based system
These turnstile revolving doors are mechanical devices to fit in the entrances of offices. It consists of three or four doors that hang on a center shaft and rotate around a vertical axis within a round enclosure. They also have a provision of folding one of the doors to let in heavy and large objects. This Uni-directional door is ideal for banks, airports, malls, buildings and commercial establishments. It is primarily used as a Security device to restrict entry to a single person at a time. It is also available in bullet proof glasses. Manufactured by Digitals India.
Face Entry is the most innovative and advanced Biometric solution today that can process an individual’s face as a key to grant access of use to premises which need to be secured against unauthorised individuals. It is non-intrusive, easy to use and interactive. The authentication time is less than a second. The enrolment can be with RFID cards, numeric keypad, magnetic cards, etc. It is insensitive to beard, scull hair or prescription glasses. Manufactured by Adman Technologies.
Video door phone Automatic sliding door Turnstile gates
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Face / Iris based system
Automatic sliding door
Video door phone
Products designed to provide top reliability in a wide range of applications in offices. Easy to install and do not require specialist skills or masonry work. The automation units are equipped with intelligent electronic control systems. Modern electronics reduces the need for adjustment. This reduces installation, set-up and maintenance time. It is also your guarantee of total safety. Manufactured by Aprimatic.
A very smart camera with state-of-the-art solution which comprises of an indoor unit with a monitor and an outdoor unit with an in-built microphone and camera to identify and converse with the visitor. Camera is enabled with IR / Night Illumination facility which provides clear images even at night. Allows conversation with the visitor from within the comfort and security of the home, without having to open the door. Camera with strong outer casing protects the camera against tampering. Manufactured by Godrej & Boyce.
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news analysis Rohit Srivastava
Headley case The bonhomie of US India friendship and cooperation on terrorism came to an unexpected halt when US declined to give India access to David Coleman Headley, one of the main ‘conspirators’ of 26/11. India was expecting his extradition and trial in India, but that is something unlikely to happen. A good case where India` had a chance to unravel the whole conspiracy has, it looks now come to a dead end. “Today’s guilty plea is a crucial step forward in our efforts to achieve justice for the more than 160 people who lost their lives in the Mumbai terrorist attacks. Working with our domestic and international partners, we will not rest until all those responsible for the Mumbai attacks and the terror plot in Denmark are held accountable,” said Attorney General Eric Holder in the plea agreement of Headley. What is most astonishing is that this plea agreement is going to do exactly opposite of Attorney Generals statement. Let’s go through some of the facts of this case. Headley has previous history of drug crime. A convict, who was arrested for heroine smuggling and was proven guilty, later he was inducted as an FBI agent and was asked to infiltrate the terror network.
For this purpose he changed his name from Dawood Gilani to David Coleman Headley. His induction could be for two purposes, to provide intelligence about terror network and to provide links between drug traffickers and terror network. This could have provided actionable intelligence to dismantle the terror-narcotics network, the prime funding source of global terror. The plea agreement states that he “has provided substantial assistance to the criminal investigation, and also has provided information of significant intelligence value”. But the question is “information of significant intelligence value” is only for US and not for India. The question arises that will these informations be shared with India? If not, then what about the global fight against terror? In diplomacy and foreign relations every aspect of bilaterals is interconnected. India has been denied extradition under the charge for which Headley has pleaded guilty. India will require direct access to Headley. National Investigation Agency and others have been directed to prepare questionnaires and NIA has already filed a case against Headley. What is most significant in the plea agreement is that the accomplices and handlers of Rana and Headley have not been named but have been represented by A, B, C, D. This non-disclosure of their identity is a serious issue. Why is US government not disclosing their identities is to hide their sources or they still think these people could be tracked and used as future source of intelligence? In intelligence the sources are so important that you have to ignore their crimes to reach the apex of any group. But India should ask for disclosure of these Let operators, secretly, as these could help in solving conspiracy of other terror attacks on India. US Assistant Secretary of State Robert Blake has said, “the federal court deal prevents the extradition of Headley on the charges he currently faces, it does not preclude his future extradition on a different set of charges”. This statement spills out the only condition for Headley’s extradition, prove his indulgence in other terror attacks in India. There is a fair possibility of him being part of any other terror act as he has been travelling to Pakistan for Let training etc. between 20022005 and thereafter as its operative so this is a fairly long time in which India has faced numerous attacks by Let. So if India gets all the information about Headley’s handlers A, B, C, D then we might charge him for other terror attacks and can legally pursue his extradition. Although our home minister is still very bullish about getting access to Headley in one of his statement he said, “It is my understanding that India would be able to obtain access to David Coleman Headley to question him in a properly constituted judicial proceeding. Such a judicial proceeding could be either pre-trial or during an inquiry or trial. It is also my understanding that Headley is obliged to cooperate fully and truthfully in such proceedings”. Now let’s see the Pakistan angle in it. General Kiyani was the ISI director general till 2007 when the conspiracy and training for Mumbai attack was carried out. He must have had all the information or rather he must have been at the helm of the planning of this attack. We must not forget that the attack on Mumbai was equivalent to any marine commandos or special forces attacking the port / port city for strategic and tactical purpose during war. The precision and professionalism demonstrated by the attackers proves that they had been
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trained like Indian Marcos. So there is fair possibility of Pak army and government using the pretext of cooperation being provided for Afghanistan to get protection. But how can ISI or Let be protected when they are the biggest perpetrators of terror? This case is being seen through India-Pakistan prism by Obama who is more concered about withdrawal from Afghanistan, than bringing culprits to books. We must also remember that FBI didn’t come to help in the investigation for India’s sake but under US law they are supposed to investigate murder of any US citizen outside US. The help in investigation was their legal duty. The same responsibility was not shown by US in the investigation of attack on Indian embassy in Kabul. It’s high time we see where we stand in the US scheme of things. We should analyse their acts and not believe in their words. Government mandarins and other worthies should learn to see through the games US has been playing and must ensure that national interest is accorded paramount importance.
Missile test DRDO and Indian missile operating agencies have recently conducted successful launch of four of India’s strategic and tactical missiles. On 21 March DRDO
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cartoon LAUGH N RELAX!
tested vertical launched BrahMos cruise missile from INS Ranvir. Prithvi II, surface to surface, ballistic missile and Dhanush ship launched version of Prithvi missile were test fired in salvo mode on 27 March, from different coasts of Orissa. Agni 1 was test fired from integrated testing range on 28 March by Indian army. All the above tests followed predesignated flight path and all the flight parameters with precision. Except for BrahMos, all the tests were conducted as part of training and practice schedule of the missile operators, i.e., strategic force command. These were routine tests done to maintain the preparedness of the armed forces for successful launch in hostile situation. Indian armed forces must be fully prepared to reply to any situation and being nuclear armed nation with very high threat of ballistic missiles from enemy States our reply mechanism should be spontaneous and accurate. To maintain such high level of preparedness, regular practice is a must for the forces. BrahMos test was conducted in a vertical launch mode from BrahMos Aerospace patented Universal Vertical Launcher. The launch met all the mission requirements. The vertical launch has certain advantages over the horizontal launch. In the vertical mode the missile can home on the target at 360 degrees, whereas in the horizontal / tilted launch the missile will have to cover a distance and then maneouvre towards
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
the target, which will be time and energy consuming. Another advantage of vertical launch is that the launcher is below the deck of ship giving it stealth feature and protects launcher and missile from weather and environmental hazards. The BrahMos, truck mounted is vertical launched but the ship based is all horizontal thus this test has lot of significance for India. This month also saw failure of Programmed Air Defence test to be conducted on 15 March. The interception missile did not take off as the missile mimicking the incoming missile could not keep the trajectory thus the mission computer didn’t fire the interceptor as it did not find the threat scenario. The response mechanism of PAD is fully automatic and doesn’t require human control. The test was conducted on ITR Chandipur, Orissa. India has been pursuing a credible antiballistic missile capability to secure its strategic targets from enemy ballistic missiles. In last two years all the tests for endo and exo atmospheric interception have been successful and even in the salvo mode it has proved effective. With the failure of this test question mark has come over the reports which suggested that India will have credible BMD capability by 2012, two years from now.
April 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT
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