DSA April 2012 by Defence and Security Alert

editor-in-chief

ibet is not China. One of the legendary documents in the archives of the Ministry of External Affairs relates to the closing of the Indian consulate in Lhasa during the 1950s. The orders to close the consulate, the only one of its kind in the Tibetan capital, dismayed the then Consul General. And he is meant to have said, paraphrased, ‘that with the decision to close the consulate the Himalayas will now cease to be a natural frontier between India and China’. What was conveyed in that terse reply to a shockingly short-sighted decision by late Jawaharlal Nehru is a simple message, that Tibet provided a natural buffer between India and China. But independent India’s first Prime Minister did not see things with a strategic perspective, or at lease his idea of strategy did not have a territorial or security related component. And with his perplexing decision to close the consulate a chain of events was set in motion which ultimately resulted in the final and formal takeover of Tibet by communist China.

Imperial China had always maintained a treaty relationship with Tibet, through the Dalai Lama. It remained a ceremonial one, in which neither did anything to upset the cart. Pegged in between the Himalayas and imperial China there was not much that Tibet could do in any case. And not that it had any motive to do much, content in its solitude and isolation. Except that communist China’s strategic vision was quite at odds with the world as viewed from the Tibetan prism. Expansionist in the sense of protecting its core through securing its frontiers, China did not hesitate to walk into Lhasa and occupy Tibet. In that venture it was aided by the narrowed Indian vision of the core and the periphery of its security.

Since that grave India error matters have only worsened in Tibet and for its people. It is officially called Tibetan Autonomous Region, but is self-governing only in the words of its name. There is nothing autonomous about Tibet and there will come a time when there will be nothing Tibetan about Tibet as well. Indian hesitation is to blame for the tragedy that has befallen the Tibetan people. Hosting the Dalai Lama is all very well, but doing something to improve the lives of the Tibetan people, in Tibet, is as much India’s responsibility as it is that of the rest of the world. India’s strategic error began the process of Tibetan colonisation so the onus to right the wrongs rests with New Delhi.

Indian hesitation is motivated by a fear that China will do something to question the accession of Kashmir to India. Tibet is not a Kashmir in any sense and India only does disservice to the Kashmiri and Tibetan people if it remains trapped in a straightjacket of its own making. The number of self-immolation incidents in this calendar year is shocking, ghastly and a terrible tragedy. They only serve to underline the fact that there is a crisis in Tibet and its people. It is time India opened its eyes to their plight and help them in their pursuit of justice.

manvendra singh

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

executive editor

publisher’s view

TIBET - CHINA'S ACHILLES HEEL ?

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Vo l u m e 3 I s s u e 7 A p r i l 2 0 1 2 chairman shyam sunder publisher & ceo pawan agrawal editor-in-chief manvendra singh executive editor maj gen (dr) g d bakshi SM, VSM (retd) director shishir bhushan corporate consultant k j singh art consultant divya gupta central saint martins college of art & design, university of arts, london corporate communications tejinder singh sales and marketing mayank sinha creative vivek anand pant administration shveta gupta representative (Jammu and Kashmir) salil sharma correspondent (Europe) dominika cosic production dilshad & dabeer webmaster sundar rawat photographer subhash circulation & distribution mithlesh tiwari e-mail: (first name)@dsalert.org info: info@dsalert.org articles: articles@dsalert.org subscription: subscription@dsalert.org online edition: online@dsalert.org advertisement: advt@dsalert.org editorial & business office 4/19 asaf ali road new delhi-110002 (India) t: +91-011-23243999, 23287999, 9958382999 e: info@dsalert.org www.dsalert.org

disclaimer all rights reserved. reproduction and translation in any language in whole or in part by any means without permission from Defence and Security Alert is prohibited. opinions expressed are those of the individual writers and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher and / or editors. all disputes are subject to jurisdiction of delhi courts. defence and security alert is printed, published and owned by pawan agrawal and printed at graphic world, 1686, kucha dakhini rai, darya ganj, new delhi-110002 and published at 4/19 asaf ali road, new delhi (india). editor: manvendra singh.

couple of weeks back on 10th March, 2012, all Tibetan brothers and sisters witnessed the 53rd anniversary of the Tibetan National Uprising Day and the fourth anniversary of the 2008 mass protests in Tibet. It was not just a celebration but a strong rededication and commitment of each Tibetan for their motherland to save the rich art and culture of Tibet from the clutches of China and its present leadership. Not just present leadership. I recall a statement attributed to His Holiness the Dalai Lama conveying what he thought of the Chinese way back in 1981, "Frankly speaking it is difficult to trust the Chinese. Once bitten by a snake you feel suspicious even when you see a piece of rope". I don't reckon his views have changed, but I felt no rancour or bitterness when he spoke about the Chinese during our recent meeting. I was fascinated to meet His Holiness the Dalai Lama at Dharamshala for an interview with him on 14.03.2012 and know his frank and free opinion on the Tibet issue which, dear readers, team DSA is sharing with you in this issue focused especially on Tibet. The level of his great contribution and thoughts are so pure that I can only say that they are as pure as the new born baby who does not know the complexities of the materialistic world we live in. I am deeply impressed by him as never before by any other spiritual leader. I also met the Prime Minister-in-Exile of Tibet Dr Lobsang Sangay and was astonished to know how an associate scholar of Harvard Law School left a comfortable life in the US and came to join his Tibetan brothers and sisters for the cause of Free Tibet on a very meagre subsistence. I am sharing this, with you to prove that it is not just the old generation of Tibet which fled the country to Dharamshala nearly six decades ago but that the new generation born in exile is equally dedicated and committed to this cause and for this they are sacrificing everything be it their comforts, careers, salaries and even their lives which are more precious than anything else. The self-immolations by the Buddhist monks and nuns in the past years have increased with 30 cases already since 2009 but it is very unfortunate that the Chinese leadership is trying to smother the events with a blanket news blackout and whisking away the bodies of the venerated personages to prevent them from becoming icons for inspiration to others in Tibet. I am afraid that the numbers of such self-immolations will increase in the coming months. China is worried that such examples of selfless martyrdom could become examples for others to follow both within the Tibetan Autonomous Region and in the Tibetan diaspora all around the world bringing shame and international abhorrence in Buddhist dominated areas where Beijing is trying to extend its hegemony, particularly in South-east Asia. It is not unaware of the kind of effect the very concept of self-immolation had on America’s expansion of its sphere of influence into the Indochina states of Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia in the late 60s. Buddhist monks had led the struggle against American colonisation by burning themselves in public places within full glare of the international media. The news of every such burning has begun to percolate to the rest of the world and it will not be long before Beijing will have to face the consequences of its attempt to crush the Tibetan uprising. The glaciers of Tibet and the catchment basin of its vast plateau give rise to mighty rivers like the Yangtse, the Hwang Ho, the Brahmaputra and the Mekong which serve the freshwater necessities of diverse cultures that have germinated in China, India and the whole of South-east Asia. For millions they are the only sources of fresh water. China is well aware of the geopolitical importance of this resource and appears to be preparing to use it as a tool to expand its hegemony. The next war between India and China may well happen over the rights of lower riparian states to the rivers that have their sources in the Tibetan plateau. So now it is time for the Indian leadership to wake up and take necessary measures to save Tibet because if Tibet is safe then we are safe otherwise China has already shown signs of becoming a threat to the rest of the region, using water as a tool.

“The country comes first - always and every time”.

ibet is the Water Tower of Asia. 10 of Asia’s major rivers originate from here. 46 per cent of the entire human population survives on the waters that originate in Tibet. Tibet is the third pole and the largest storehouse of ice after the Arctic and the Antarctic. Its ice melt feeds the flood plains that support the major civilisations of Asia. Ecologically, what happens to Tibet therefore is of serious concern to the rest of the world. Three major rivers come to India from Tibet – the Satluj, Indus and the Brahmaputra that flows through India and Bangladesh and supports a population larger than the population of USA and Europe combined. The base stream of the Brahmaputra that enters India as the Dihang (or Siang) carries in about 44 per cent of the Brahmaputra’s waters from the ice melt of Tibet. The balance 56 per cent comes from Indian rivers south of the watershed, primarily in the monsoons. The 44 per cent of water that flows in from Tibet therefore is critical for sustaining the flow of the base stream in winter. This year, the Siang almost ran dry in winter. The Chinese have planned 28 dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo gorge in Tibet. Of these 8 are already under construction. If the base stream dries up and the primary channel is degraded, it could lead to devastating floods in the monsoons resulting from changes in course of the base channel itself. Major dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo gorge could also generate devastating seismic activity in the Himalayan plate and cause very major earthquakes in north-eastern India. Much as we would like to avoid it, we cannot but help getting seriously concerned about precisely what is going on in Tibet. There is deep unrest and angst among the Tibetan population. In the space of the last couple of years there have been over 30 immolations by monks and nuns in Tibet. The Chinese are muscling into POK and building a rail-road corridor to the strategic port of Gwadar. They have armed Pakistan to the teeth with conventional and nuclear weapons and tacitly encouraged it to make life as difficult for India as it could by its asymmetric warfare capabilities. China has turned Tibet into a vast armed camp. It has feverishly upgraded the infrastructure in Tibet to bring about a paradigm shift in its capability to support forces in this strategic region. From the 1960s to 1990s it could sustain six divisions in Tibet for a low level threat scenario. It could muster some 22 Divisions over two seasons if it wanted to do something bigger and more meaningful. Today the Gormo-Lhasa railway line has been extended to Shigatse and opposite Nepal. There are five major airfields in Tibet and the PLAAF is holding live fire drills to ensure we get the message. China can now assemble upto 34 Divisions or more in Tibet in less than one campaign season. That is the magnitude by which the threat has escalated. The Chinese moves to outflank us by leasing parts of Gilgit-Baltistan are ominous. Their implications do not seem to have sunk in entirely in the minds of our PMO and MoD. Our attention has been drawn towards Arunachal in the East while a major strike is possibly being prepared for in the West - where China and Pakistan can attack us together. China is trying to establish contacts with the Maoists and it has transferred an AK-47 production factory to the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in Myanmar - so that they can supply the Maoists and the north-east rebels. China is engaged in a String of Pearls strategy to surround us from the ocean flank also. Is it time to pay it back in its own coin? We may not want war. The Chinese however are preparing for a local war under conditions of informatisation quite feverishly. Their official defence budget this year has gone up to US$ 106 billion. Americans estimate the actual budget to be over US$ 180 billion. India’s defence budget this year went up to a paltry US$ 38 billion only. The contrast in attitudes is somewhat daunting. The world is entering the era of Water Wars. Tibet is the Water Tower of Asia and may well be the epicentre and locus of all the water wars of Asia in the years and decades to come. How prepared are we to fight such Water Wars which may come sooner than expected? Do we need to take a long and hard look at Tibet and what is going on there? This issue of the DSA is devoted exclusively to Tibet and tries to determine precisely what is going on there? Why are Tibetans immolating themselves in droves on that plateau? His Holiness, the Dalai Lama and HE the Kalon Tripa, Lobsang Sangay, were gracious enough to grant us an audience at Dharamshala and speak to us in very great detail. Ambasador Shukla examines the historical veracity of China’s claims to Tibet and there are many useful and informative articles on this vital Water Tower of Asia that will perforce figure more and more in our strategic discourse - whether we like it or otherwise is another matter.

Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi SM, VSM (retd)

We all at DSA express our solidarity with the Tibetan struggle and wholeheartedly espouse the just cause of the peace loving Tibetan people. We support 2012 as the Tibet Lobby Year! Jai Hind, Jai Tibet!

pawan agrawal

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

contents T IBET SPECIAL ISSUE April 2012

contents

An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Magazine

Vo l u m e 3 I s s u e 7 A p r i l 2 0 1 2

A R T I C L E S Tibet in international law and practice P P Shukla, IFS

the waters of Tibet

China bridgehead in Tibet - targets in India

China’s Tibet strategy

China’s infrastructure build-up in Tibet

India-China territorial dispute: little progress towards resolution

tool in pagan hands

the Tibetan diaspora: yearning for the promised land

between dragon and the elephant: the geostrategic significance of Tibet

money or values? China or Tibet - European dilemma

Rear Adm (Dr) S Kulshrestha (retd)

China’s growing assertiveness: shaping the Indian response

plaaf against India attrition through Tibet ?

Claude Arpi

Lt Gen Kamal Davar PVSM, AVSM (retd)

Air Vice Marshal A K Tiwary (retd)

water wars? India-China and Tibet: serious potential for conflict

Chinese advances in nano-technology

Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi SM, VSM (retd)

Lt Gen O P Kaushik (retd) Jayadeva Ranade

Dr Monika Chansoria

Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (retd) Cecil Victor

Vinita Agrawal

Sana Hashmi

Dominika Cosic

F E A T U R E S Exclusive Interview - His Holiness The Dalai Lama 6 Exclusive Interview - His Excellency Dr Lobsang Sangay 11 74 Defexpo India 2012: DSA Report

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April 2012 Defence AND security alert

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Tibet

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

In a rare and candid interview with the Publisher and the Executive Editor of DSA, His Holiness, The Dalai Lama, talks at great length on the situation in Tibet and how it evolved over the years, as also the possible contours of future developments. His infinite compassion and deep feelings for his land and his people come through so clearly in this wide-ranging interview.

INTERVIEW WITH HIS HOLINESS

THE DALAI LAMA

DSA: There have been distressing reports of Tibetan monks setting themselves ablaze to protest against Chinese repression. What is the current situation in Tibet and which way do you think it is headed? His Holiness: Recent events are very sad. However they are symptomatic of all that the Chinese have done to Tibet over the last 60 years. Chinese policy has oscillated between periods of leniency followed by ruthless control and suppression. The repression has been particularly bad in the Kham and Amdo regions. The Chinese invaded in 1949-50. From 1956 onwards there was a major military crackdown and intense resistance.Thousands were put in prison, many tortured and killed. That generation is almost gone. In the 1960s there was the Cultural Revolution which saw another wave of repression in which monasteries were destroyed and desecrated. After the Cultural Revolution – things became comparatively a little better. Hu Yaobang adopted a softer line. His thinking was more realistic. He practically apologised for past mistakes and even said that they wanted to reduce the Han population in Tibet. However in the mid-1980s Hu was himself disgraced. Things became much harder thereafter. Hardline TAR Party Secretary Chen Kuiyan came to Lhasa and a virtual semi-cultural revolution was started. This laid the seeds of the 2008 crisis. Then came another Party General Secretary Zhang Qingli. He was ruthless and openly mentioned, “those that need to be captured and imprisoned will be imprisoned. Those that need to be killed, will be killed.” They ruthlessly killed Tibetan refugees trying to cross over into India and Nepal. A Romanian mountaineer videofilmed the Chinese border guards shooting the unarmed civilian refugees. Study of classical Tibetan texts was banned, only texts translated from Chinese texts could be read. Political education of monasteries and nunneries was stepped up. People were told to criticise the Dalai Lama. People were forced to put up photos of Mao on their altars. They were asked to love a party that was destroying their religion – their Dharma. Only a Totalitarian state can impose diktats like banning school children and official cadres from visiting temples. This generated intense resentment and sparked the 2008 crisis. Repression was greatly intensified. The local Chinese leaders brought reporters to the Monastery. Mahakala temples traditionally display traditional weapons and swords. These were shown to the press as weapons being used by the Tibetans and used to justify the repression and pain. There has been a systematic attempt to suppress the Tibetan culture and language. Three years ago, an official Chinese paper mentioned that Tibetan studies should just be confined to a study of the language; all other subjects must be taught in Chinese. Students were enraged and carried out demonstrations. Tibetan teachers and intellectuals held talks with Chinese authorities and requested that it would take time and preparation to switch to this policy. The Chinese were blunt and said it would not be given. They often renege on their policy pronouncements whenever it suits them. They announce a particular policy in Tibet but often do the opposite. They have used various means to suppress the Tibetan spirit and identity but have failed completely. As long as the Tibetans are a majority, they see them as separatists. They are sending Han migrants in large numbers. Some shortsighted Tibetans are selling their land to them at high prices. The Chinese now outnumber the Tibetans in the Urban Centre’s, for instance Lhasa today has a population of some 3,00,000. Of this almost two thirds are Han. The situation is similar in other towns like Shigaste etc. Only in the countryside are Tibetan nomads in majority. There is unfortunately, a systematic policy to eliminate the Tibetan culture and language and wipe out the Tibetan identity. We

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

have our own language script. Our alphabet is Indian. The attempt to efface it altogether is a serious matter. Our ancient nation with a unique culture is dying. If Chinese repressive policies continue, it will indeed become a serious matter. The Tibetans are chelas of the Indian Gurus. Naturally in the past, despite the difficulties of the terrain and climate, thousands of Tibetans from Tibet used to go to India for pilgrimage. None ever went to China. Mentally, spiritually and emotionally the Tibetans are much closer to India. You could say that the Tibetan people, in fact, are India’s first line of defence. There is every reason to make efforts to preserve our culture of peace, compassion and non-violence. Even China today needs the Tibetan culture of peace and non-violence. According to one survey some 300 million Chinese are Buddhists. Of these some half a million followTibetan Buddhism. Some Chinese Buddhists questioned me about the concept of Dharma Raja. Buddhists all over must study the qualities of Dharma Raja and examine if those who claim to be Dharma Rajas are so qualified. Unfortunately nowadays Buddhists in China, Japan, Korea and other nations recite the sutras without knowing their meaning. The Pure form of Nalanda Buddhism has only been preserved in Tibet.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

The preservation of this culture is not only important for the 6 million Tibetans but also for the people of India and the whole world.

India is the most populous, democratic country in the world. India, after independence is a most stable country. Consider its rich tradition, spiritual thought and philosophy etc. It has adapted so well to democracy, rule of law and free press. Religious harmony is an ancient tradition in this land. This is very much relevant in today’s world. Today there is a lot of conflict in the name of religion. India’s thousands of years old tradition of religious harmony is very much required DSA: Tibet is the water tower of Asia. From here, China controls the outflow of every major river of Asia – especially those flowing to South and South-east Asia. Do you feel China’s annexation of Tibet was motivated by this desire to secure the Asian high ground and thereby control the water flows of Asia? Do you feel China will divert the Brahmaputra river? Does the Tibetan government in exile have any concrete information about Chinese plans to do so? HH: In the year1961, Altakin, a member of the Independence Movement for Eastern Turkistan, had come to India to attend the Afro-Asian meeting started by Jai Prakash Narain. He had met me then and told me about the Communist Chinese plans to divert the Brahmaputra river, in view of the acute scarcity of water in North China. At that stage I thought his forecast was exaggerated. Now in recent years however, his warning seems to be coming true. The Chinese are exploiting Tibet’s rich resources to the hilt. The construction of the Gormo-Lhasa railway serves to accentuate the economic exploitation of Tibet. The purpose is not just economic, it is political and military in nature.

Wen Jiabao has said recently on BBC and I quote, “Without political reform its impossible to continue economic reform and the gains we have made may be lost. Without reform the tragedy of the Cultural Revolution could happen again. Reform has to move ahead. Stopping or going back is useless.” Thus the Chinese Prime Minister and a number of intellectuals feel that China needs more openness DSA: The Institution of the Dalai Lama commands overwhelming respect not just in the Buddhist world but in universal terms all over the globe. In 2011 you gave up your political role. Do you feel any elected political representative will really be able to step into your shoes and command the same attention globally for the Tibetan cause? HH: It has to do with my larger role and responsibility as a Buddhist monk. In that capacity my responsibilities go beyond the Tibetan struggle. I am but another of the 7 billion members of the human race. As a monk I have to think about the larger future of humanity, for a better future for the human race per se. Today there has been a lot of economic development but equally a lot of injustice and bloodshed. There has been very good development in India itself. It is a huge country and needs development. However corruption and injustice are big contradictions. I had gone last year to Mexico, Argentina and Brazil. And I asked the people if the Rich and Poor gap is small or large, is corruption little or big and sadly they all felt it was big. Today corruption has become a way of life. The poor people always suffer. Why does that happen? It happens because we lack a moral compass, we lack moral principles and values. Human beings have an innate love for justice. No one likes lying or cheating. Values are the basis of a happy life in human society. This is my number one commitment till my death. Non-violence and Ahimsa are traditions set by theIndian masters that are thousands of years old. These are still very much relevant to this world. Religious harmony is an Indian trait. India is home to all the world’s great religions. All the world’s major religions are settled in this country. The Parsi community settled here for thousands of years. The Tatas and Manekshaw made stellar contributions to this society. The Jews lived here in peace. India is a model where everyone lives in a spirit of brotherhood.There are many saints in India. But they must mix with the people. They must not stay in their cocoons. In Potala I was in a cocoon. Now I have gone public, I mix with the people. No political leader can do that. However, the elected representatives, look after the refugee communities and their well being. They do this much better than me.

years ago the Nuclear Physicist, Dr Raja Ramanna - The Indian Sakharov, told me about the Nagarjuna texts and how the concepts of Quantum Mechanics were found in these texts. He said he felt so proud that an Indian had framed the concept almost 2000 years ago. There are over 300 volumes of Buddhist texts. I told Tibetan scholars that we have to divide these into three parts. First Category – Science. In this we must study the Buddhist sciences of the study of the mind and psychology, quantum physics, neurobiology and cosmology and hold a dialogue with the Scientists. Second Category – Buddhist philosophy. Third Category – Religion. The first two are the common heritage of mankind and are universal in their appeal. In the Theravada tradition there is not much explanation about the mind. The Sanksrit tradition is richer. The Indian Brain is different, quite remarkable. Hence the suggestion that India should promote Buddhism is not nice as India is a secular, multi-religious society. However India must promote Buddhist science and philosophy which is universal. India must strive for the restoration of Nalanda as a centre of learning. It must restore the Nalanda University. It should restore Nagarjuna Konda as a learning centre and university. It should go beyond religion and promote the Buddhist philosophy and science.

Today corruption has become a way of life. The poor people always suffer. Why does that happen? It happens because we lack a moral compass, we lack moral principles and values. Human beings have an innate love for justice. No one likes lying or cheating. Values are the basis of a happy life in human society. This is my number one commitment till my death. Non-violence and Ahimsa are traditions set by the Indian masters that are thousands of years old. These are still very much relevant to this world. Religious harmony is an Indian trait. India is home to all the world’s great religions. All the world’s major religions are settled in this country DSA: Do you believe that India has done enough to help the Tibetan cause?

In the last 60 years, India has done the maximum it could. However in early 1949-50 maybe, as Sardar Patel had warned, the Indian Government could have asserted itself more. Maybe it lost an opportunity then. The Tibetan Government in Lhasa showed ignorance. It believed that the Gods would save Tibet. Unfortunately when Godless people came; God was nowhere to be seen!

HH: Has India done enough to help the Tibetan cause? In the last 60 years, India has done the maximum it could. However in early 1949-50 maybe, as Sardar Patel had warned, the Indian Government could have asserted itself more. Maybe it lost an opportunity then. The Tibetan Government in Lhasa showed ignorance. It believed that the Gods would save Tibet. Unfortunately when Godless people came; God was nowhere to be seen!

DSA: India is the birthplace of Lord Buddha. What can and what should India do to revive global interest in Buddhism. Why can’t India promote Buddhist tourism on the Haj scale? What have been the gains of the World Buddhist Conference and what is the way ahead?

DSA: The leitmotif of the year 2011 was the spread of the Jasmine movement of democratisation and protest. Social media spurred this upsurge in the Middle East and Africa. Do you see this wave of democratisation spreading to China in the times to come? Can social media help spread awareness of the cause of Tibet?

HH: I am a Buddhist and have studied many texts of the Nalanda Masters. When I study these texts and their explanations about the human mind, about the nuclear particles, I am astounded by how deep their study was. Several

HH: I just read what Wen Jiabao has said recently on BBC. He said, and I quote, “Without political reform its impossible to continue economic reform and the gains we have made may be lost. Without reform the tragedy of the Cultural Revolution could

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW happen again. Reform has to move ahead. Stopping or going back is useless.” Thus the Chinese Prime Minister and a number of intellectuals feel that China needs more openness. I recently met some Chinese people. I told them that 1.3 billion Chinese people have every right to know the reality, the truth and judge for themselves. Censorship by the government is totally an immoral act. It must stop. The Chinese judicial system must be upgraded to international standards. If you talk to the Chinese of democracy, they say it is not suitable for Asia. But what about India, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea? They have been successful democracies. The Chinese people have no right to know the reality. They cannot speak and cannot judge for themselves. Liu Xiabo, their Nobel Laureate has been imprisoned. The Chinese people should be more active. It would be appropriate for India to express support for ushering in democracy in China. We must fully endorse and support Wen Jiabao’s statement on political reform. The party must support him in this and help to implement these. Indian newspapers must endorse and support these reforms. Once China becomes a more open society with freedom of speech – their attitude towards Tibet will change. The Chinese people are brainwashed with distorted information. Ordinary Chinese do not understand the issues involved. If Chinese people knew our history and thought, things would change for the better.

Tibet Exclusive INTERVIEW

INTERVIEW WITH THE KALON TRIPA

DR LOBSANG SANGAY

Chinese policy has oscillated between periods of leniency followed by ruthless control and suppression. The repression has been particularly bad in the Kham and Amdo regions. The Chinese invaded in 1949-50. From 1956 onwards there was a major military crackdown and intense resistance. Thousands were put in prison, many tortured and killed. That generation is almost gone. In the 1960s there was the Cultural Revolution which saw another wave of repression in which monasteries were destroyed and desecrated DSA: There is likely to be a change of guard in Beijing shortly. What impact will it have on Tibet’s struggle for autonomy? HH: It is too early to say definitely. Things are still very uncertain. My Chinese friends are quite optimistic. Once power is consolidated, the leaders may take new initiatives. Wen Jiabao’s statement gives us some reason for hope. He is already at the end of his tenure. The new leadership can build-on efforts within China to continue reforms. They must give moral support to Wen’s liberal thinking.

“Those that need to be captured and imprisoned will be imprisoned. Those that need to be killed, will be killed.” They ruthlessly killed Tibetan refugees trying to cross over into India and Nepal. A Romanian mountaineer videofilmed the Chinese border guards shooting the unarmed civilian refugees. Study of classical Tibetan texts was banned DSA: Do you see any probability of a conflict between India and China in the foreseeable future? What could be the precipitating factors for such a conflict? HH: I don’t think so. The recent episode of North Korea shelling of South Korean island and the consequent Naval exercises is a pointer. The Chinese restrained the North Korean leaders. If they fight with India, India will not be alone. It is the biggest democratic country. Russia may not help China in such a venture. To prevent such a conflict, Tibet must become a zone of peace. The Chinese must reduce their military footprint in Tibet and make it a zone of peace. Legally let it be a part of China but for the sake of the environment, reduce military presence. Indian side can then also reduce the thousands of jawans deployed in the bitterly cold high altitude areas.

Concluding statement HH: India is the land of Gurus. India is the most populous, democratic country in the world. India, after independence is a most stable country. Consider its rich tradition, spiritual thought and philosophy etc. It has adapted so well to democracy, rule of law and free press. Religious harmony is an ancient tradition in this land.This is very much relevant in today’s world. Today there is a lot of conflict in the name of religion. India’s thousands of years old tradition of religious harmony is very much required. India should make efforts to promote religious and global harmony and ahimsa. I tell Indian communities abroad, “You must refresh the 2000 year old traditions like ahimsa and religious harmony. Wherever there are Indian communities there must be greater awareness of these values. Just like the Chinese form China-towns wherever they go, the Indians must form India-towns to preserve and propagate their culture of religious tolerance, peace and non-violence.”

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

A candid and penetrating interview with HE Dr Lobsang Sangay, Kalon Tripa (Prime Minister) of the Tibetan Government in exile. His views are remarkable for their candour, clarity and deep insights. DSA: Could you please tell us about the current situation in Tibet? HE Kalon Tripa: In the last two years, 27 Tibetans have immolated themselves – 11 in the last year and 15 in this year itself. This reflects a really major crisis happening in Tibet. It makes a statement – the occupation of Tibet is unacceptable; the repression is unbearable. It is a drastic cry of distress. Given a chance, any human being would not like to immolate himself. However the Tibetans are choosing this really tragic means. Why? This is because under the one party, authoritarian system there is no space for any other conventional means of protest. Even rallies, protests and demonstrations are completely banned. Protesters are arrested, tortured and killed. Seven of them were shot dead in this year itself for their peaceful protests. No wonder, the Tibetans are choosing to self-immolate. They want freedom for the Tibetans and a return of His Holiness, the Dalai Lama. Blame for this lies squarely with the hardline policies of China. Self-immolation is another strong indictment of failed Chinese policies.

Because under the one party, authoritarian system there is no space for any other conventional means of protest. Even rallies, protests and demonstrations are completely banned. Protesters are arrested, tortured and killed. Seven of them were shot dead in this year itself for their peaceful protests. No wonder, the Tibetans are choosing to self-immolate

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

Exclusive INTERVIEW

DSA: There is likely to be a change of guard in Beijing shortly. What impact will it have on Tibet’s Struggle for Autonomy?

DSA: Tibet is the Water Tower of Asia. There are reports of the Chinese plans to dam and divert the Brahmaputra. Your comments.

HE KT: As a human being one should always be hopeful. It retains your rationality and sanity. Life is precious. But 60 plus years of our experience gives us strong reason to be quite pessimistic. The Chinese policies have largely been hardline except for the Hu Yabang reforms and Tao Zhang, who caused an opening up in the 1980s.

HE KT: The Tibet issue is not simply a geo-political issue or a political issue. It is an ecological issue of grave concern. 10 major rivers of Asia originate in Tibet. It is the third largest reserve of ice after the Arctic and the Antarctic. When glaciers melt, they turn into fresh water. The Yellow River, the source of the Chinese civilisation, originates in Tibet. Experts today talk of “Water Wars” or “White Gold”. Bangladesh today has issues on Brahmaputra and Teesta waters. India-Pakistan on the Indus. Water will increasingly become more important. China has 8 per cent of the world’s fresh water but 20 per cent of its population. 60 per cent of Chinese population is facing acute water scarcity. Hence, all this talk of the diversion of the Brahmaputra. There is also a major emphasis on hydro-power and bringing water to 60 per cent of China’s population. It is therefore very important that Tibet’s people resume their role as traditional guardians of the Tibetan plateau. We respected the natural flow of rivers and water sharing. If we are restored, we will respect the riparian rights of all downstream countries. The dozens of dams now being constructed in Tibet seriously affect people downstream. Are they environmentally sound? Their engineering soundness has major ramifications – especially in terms of seismological disasters they could unleash. We can see disputes over water in the years to come. Countries in the region must take cognisance in terms of the serious impact on the SAARC and ASEAN nations.

As a matter of abundant precaution there is strong reason to be cautious. Wen Jiabao’s recent comment however, is welcome. It is the reality and need of China. You can’t have economic reforms without political reforms. The statement is timely. But we have heard such statements before. In the 1950s, the PLA promised a socialist paradise. We have seen no socialism. The Chinese oppressed the Tibetan people. There is no equality between the Tibetans and the Hans. Despite this, we welcome positive comments, but we will welcome it even more if it translates into action and policies in Tibet.

The Tibet issue is not simply a geo-political issue or a political issue. It is an ecological issue of grave concern. 10 major rivers of Asia originate in Tibet. It is the third largest reserve of ice after the Arctic and the Antarctic. When glaciers melt, they turn into fresh water. The Yellow River, the source of the Chinese civilisation, originates in Tibet. Experts today talk of “Water Wars” or “White Gold”. Bangladesh today has issues on Brahmaputra and Teesta waters. India-Pakistan on the Indus. Water will increasingly become more important. China has 8 per cent of the world’s fresh water but 20 per cent of its population. 60 per cent of Chinese population is facing acute water scarcity. Hence, all this talk of the diversion of the Brahmaputra. There is also a major emphasis on hydro-power and bringing water to 60 per cent of China’s population. It is therefore very important that Tibet’s people resume their role as traditional guardians of the Tibetan plateau. We respected the natural flow of rivers and water sharing. If we are restored, we will respect the riparian rights of all downstream countries. The dozens of dams now being constructed in Tibet seriously affect people downstream. Are they environmentally sound? Their engineering soundness has major ramifications – especially in terms of seismological disasters they could unleash DSA: What is the current demographic balance in Tibet? Have the Tibetans been reduced to a minority in their own land by Han immigration? HE KT: That’s a loaded question. Let me answer in categories. Actual demographic status of the Chinese in Tibet needs an analysis. Technically one can make the argument that Chinese are in a majority. However, the reality is that the Tibetans are still the majority in the rural, nomadic countryside. Many Chinese however have come into the urban areas in Tibet. Towns like Lhasa, Shigatse, Chamdo have a majority Han population. The Chinese migrants arrive in hordes in summer but reduce in winter. The high altitude is Tibet’s saving grace perhaps. Genetically, one needs to adapt and that is taking the Chinese some time. The situation in Manchuria, Mongolia and Xinjiang is dire. In Xinjiang, the ratio of Han to non-Hans is almost 50:50 or 60:40. Time, fortunately, is on the side of Tibetans. Increasing influx however is now evident (especially with the coming up of Gormo-Lhasa railway). For the same job, Chinese workers are paid higher wages. 50 per cent of the Communist Party members are Chinese. 40 per cent of Tibetan high school graduates are unemployed. They gain degrees, but no employment. In the universities and high schools, Chinese is the medium of instruction – even in the primary schools. Despite this, the Tibetan spirit and identity are very strong. The uprising of 2008 proves that. The self-immolations prove that. Tibetans who speak Chinese are Tibetans nevertheless. Gandhi and Nehru learnt English but overthrew the British colonial rule. DSA: How has the world reacted to the atrocities and self-immolations in Tibet? Are you satisfied with the international community’s response? HE KT: Unfortunately, on the one hand though we welcome statements and comments issued by different governments and the world on self-immolations, we would like the world community to take action on the core issues. There ought to be a peaceful way to solve the issue. Violence is not the answer. Mahatma Gandhi, His Holiness – all advocate non-violence. We are non-violent but resolute that injustice will not be accepted. That is why we appeal to the world that all countries have suffered injustice at some time or the other. Other nations provided their support for just causes. We appeal to the international community to live up to the principles on which the founding fathers struggled and we hope that there will be more action than mere lip sympathy.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet is very important from the geo-political angle. The Great Game of the early 20th century unfortunately is still being played out in Afghanistan, Xinjiang and Tibet. It was a Great Game. It is time however, that great minds come together to find “Win-Win” solutions for all. It is not in China’s favour for this situation to persist. It is a black mark for China. To demonstrate you are rising peacefully, there must be peace in Tibet. Social harmony is in the best interest of China. It will bring stability in China, regionally and globally. That will be a victory for justice, freedom and humanity. No one loses. It will be a positive step for the world DSA: There is a major Chinese military and logistical build-up in Tibet. Do you foresee the possibility of a conflict between India and China? HE KT: We advocate non-violence. We do hope for peace. China is feverishly building airfields in Tibet. A massive railway line, highways are being built. We wonder, are these really needed for Tibet? If not, then what are these for? It reminds us of 1962. Military build-ups can lead to misunderstanding. That is not the scenario we would like to see. We would like to see peace in Asia. Peace, however, must be based on equal terms and mutual respect. We can only hope and pray for peace. DSA: Do you believe India has done enough to help the Tibetans’ cause? HE KT: Comparatively India has done the most for Tibetans. Had it not been for India, we would not have been here. Majority of Tibetan exiles are in India. It has been so hospitable and adopted a humanitarian point of view even when India was a poor third world country and till now, when it is rising rapidly, it has supported the Tibetan people. Do I want to see more? Obviously! Kindness has no limits – but I can’t complain. DSA: Tibetans of the current generation have not seen Tibet. Their grandparents came from there. Will these Tibetans be able to carry forward the momentum of the Tibetan Movement?

HE KT: Absolutely! I have never seen Tibet. I grew up in Darjeeling. Now I eat Masala Dosas. But the spirit is still strong. It feels good. I spent the last 16 years at Harvard Law School. Then I left the United States, left my job, to work for my people under the guidance of His Holiness, the Dalai Lama. I now earn a princely sum of Rs 16,000 a month. But whatever I have sacrificed, pales in comparison with Tibetans who are sacrificing their lives – immolating themselves for the cause. We all dream of going back. The dream, the aspiration is very much alive. DSA: Any message you would like to give to our readers in India and around the world? HE KT: Yours is a defence related magazine. Tibet is very important from the geo-political angle. The Great Game of the early 20th century unfortunately is still being played out in Afghanistan, Xinjiang and Tibet. It was a Great Game. It is time however, that great minds come together to find “Win-Win” solutions for all. It is not in China’s favour for this situation to persist. It is a black mark for China. To demonstrate you are rising peacefully, there must be peace in Tibet. Social harmony is in the best interest of China. It will bring stability in China, regionally and globally. That will be a victory for justice, freedom and humanity. No one loses. It will be a positive step for the world.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

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Late Dr S P Bakshi Revered father of our Executive Editor Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi SM, VSM (retd). Dr Bakshi was born in Jammu on 10 June 1913. He studied at the Prince of Wales College Jammu and then did his Masters in English Literature from Foreman Christian College Lahore where his colleagues were famous people like Ambassador T N Kaul and D P Dhar. In 1935, he joined the Jammu and Kashmir State Forces as a Civilian Instructor at the State Forces Officers Training School. It was then commanded by Maj Gen H C Scott, a British officer on attachment from the British Indian Army. In time Dr Bakshi rose to be the Principal of the Officerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Training School. Many of his students became very successful soldiers who distinguished themselves in combat and rose to high ranks. He was also personal tutor to Yuvraj Karan Singh and as such very close to the Royal family. He served through the difficult period of the invasion of the Jammu and Kashmir State by the Pakistan led Tribals who put the state to fire and sword. Many units of the heavily outnumbered State Forces were wiped out in the grim struggle to save the state. After the war he was appointed as a Financial Adviser at HQ 15 Corps and also tasked to record the history of the State Forces in that war. He was absorbed into the Indian Army as a Civilian Gazzeted Officer and transferred to Jabalpur in 1959. In 1963 his eldest son (Capt S R Bakshi) joined the 11th Battalion of the Jammu and Kashmir Rifles (which had formerly been the State Forces). Capt S R Bakshi was killed in action in the 1965 War. The town of Jabalpur honoured him as one of its four martyrs during that war. The road where the family stayed was named after Capt S R Bakshi. Thereafter Dr Bakshi settled down in Jabalpur itself.

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In 1967, his second son Joined the Army. He was commissioned into the 6th Battalion the Jammu and Kashmir Rifles and saw extensive combat in Kargil and Jammu and Kashmir and was decorated twice. He rose to the rank of Major General and retired from the Army in 2008. His third son Ranjan became Vice President in the Deutsche Bank and his daughter Veena an acomplished artist, did her Phd in Fine Arts and taught for many years at the Women's Polytechnic. After his retirement in 1971, Dr S P Bakshi had qualified as a Homeopathic physician and practised very sucessfully for over 30 years. He and his wife also joined Maharishi Mahesh Yogis organisation as trained teachers of Transcendental Meditation and taught the art of meditation (TM) at schools and colleges. He was a prolific writer and has published five books. He took a lot of interest to introduce free health schemes in the remote villages of the MP State. He continued to work selflessly for his community and several social and environmental causes. He was a member of the Friends of Trees Society and planted many tress including in his own house. He wrote many collections of Poetry on nature and translated Vedic Hymns into English. Till the very end he lived an active and socially very useful and productive life. Till a few months before his passing away he used to walk every day and spent three years writing his final book on the Inside Story of the Jammu and Kashmir State - an eyewitness account of Pakistan's First invasion of Jammu and Kashmir in 1947 and the accession of the state to India. This book has just been published by Knowledge world New Delhi. When he passed away on 18 March 2012 he was less than three months short of 99 years. In more ways than one, he exemplified that Vedic Stanza - â&#x20AC;&#x153;May we live a Hundred Autumns, may our sight and hearing be perfect for a Hundred Autumns, May we live as free men for a hundred Autumns." In the course of his long and eventful life he suffered many ups and downs but never gave up his hope and optimism. He continued to strive to leave his world a little better than he had found it.

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Tibet

counterpoint

P P Shukla, IFS The writer did his Masters from Delhi School of Economics and joined the Indian Foreign Service in 1974. During a career spanning 37 years, he served in Moscow, Brussels, London and Kathmandu, among other places. He served in Delhi twice, including as the Diplomatic Adviser to the Prime Minister from 1996 to 2000. He has recently retired as Ambassador of India to Moscow. He is currently working as Joint Director in the Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi.

The claim that they appointed representatives [who were considered as Ambassadors by the Tibetans] or awarded titles is unconvincing. Britain still awards titles to countries like Australia and even appoints the Governor-General. But no one would accept any claim of British sovereignty over Australia. Besides, China itself was ruled during this period by the Manchus, who were themselves non-[Han] Chinese, so it is questionable whether their territories may logically be considered Chinese. It would be akin to India claiming Afghanistan because the Mughals controlled that territory or Burma because the British did

“Since Tibet is not the same as China, it should ultimately be the wishes of the people of Tibet that should prevail and not any legal or constitutional arguments. That, I think, is a valid point. Whether the people of Tibet are strong enough to assert their rights or not is another matter. Whether we are strong enough to see that is done is also another matter. But it is a right and proper thing to say and I see no difficulty in saying to the Chinese government that whether they have suzerainty or sovereignty over Tibet, surely, according to any principles, the principle they proclaim and the principles I uphold, the last voice in regard to Tibet should be the voice of the people of Tibet and nobody else.” – Jawaharlal Nehru, 7 December, 1950 Lok Sabha (Indian Parliament)

TIBET IN INTERNATIONAL LAW AND PRACTICE

A scholarly examination of the historical validity of the Chinese claims on Tibet. The writer highlights how the UN General Assembly resolution of December 1961 accepted the Tibetan people’s right to self-determination. The writer draws attention to the Treaty signed by Tibet and Mongolia in January 1913. Both countries recognised each other’s independence. The Mongolians turned to Russia for guidance and protection, the Tibetans to Britain and later India for the same. Mongolia is today an independent country – a condition extracted by the Soviet leaders from Nationalist China and then the People’s Republic, regardless of the fraternal ties between them. Tibet is a country and culture on the verge of extinction, a sorry reflection on the Indian leadership.

he plan of study is to divide Tibetan history into three parts: one, prior to the 19th century, the second from the 19th century to the beginning of the 20th century and finally, the 20th century itself, including and bringing the study up to the current period of the 21st century. The period before the 19th century is important, of course, but so much happened in the subsequent years that the relevance of the evidence from further back becomes debatable. Much of the evidence from the Chinese side is also sketchy over this period and consists of tokens of control which are not relevant to the current practice of diplomacy or international law. For instance, the claim that they appointed representatives [who were considered as Ambassadors by the Tibetans] or awarded titles is unconvincing. Britain still awards titles to countries like Australia and even appoints the Governor-General. But no one would accept any claim of British sovereignty over Australia. Besides, China itself was ruled during this period by the Manchus, who were themselves non-[Han] Chinese, so it is questionable whether their territories may logically be considered Chinese. It would be akin to India claiming Afghanistan because the Mughals controlled that territory or Burma because the British did. The 19th century however, saw some important events and these are important indications of the nature of the relationship between Tibet and China. Two events stand out. The first was the relationship between Tibet and Nepal. Nepal invaded Tibet [its second invasion in the 19th century] in 1854 and the Chinese central authorities did nothing to help Tibet, which was forced to conclude a Treaty in 1856 with Nepal which provided for a tribute – the sum of Rs 10,000 annually, a large sum those days – to be paid by Tibet. Although the Treaty paid obeisance to the Emperor of China, the fact is that Beijing neither helped in the war, not did it play any role in the Treaty signing. This is not the attribute of a sovereign. Nonetheless, the Beijing authorities use this Treaty, among others, to lay claim over both Tibet and even Nepal. The latter is dormant now, but the potential for trouble exists and needs to be recognised.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

This particular aspect of Tibetan sovereignty was brought out by the Indian officials in their negotiations with China which took place in the late 1950’s and is reflected in the following extract from the Officials’ Report: 1960 “During the 300 years prior to 1950, Tibet, whatever her status, had enjoyed the right to sign treaties and have direct dealings with her neighbours on boundary questions, was clearly established by history. The Indian side had already drawn attention to the treaties of 1684 and 1842 signed by Tibet with Ladakh. In 1856, she signed a treaty with Nepal and the People’s Government of China themselves recognised the validity of this treaty, because they felt it necessary to abrogate it in their treaty, signed exactly a hundred years later, in 1956 with the Nepal Government. It was asserted by the Chinese side that the Chinese Amban in Tibet had assisted in the conclusion of the 1856 treaty. This, too, was an incorrect statement of facts; but even if true, it would only corroborate the Indian position that China recognised the treaty-making powers of Tibet. For it would mean that China assisted Tibet in directly negotiating a treaty which, among other things, granted extra-territorial rights to Nepal.”

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

counterpoint

It is worthwhile reflecting upon the Tibet-Mongolia Treaty of January 1913. Both countries recognised each other’s independence. The Mongolians turned to Russia for guidance and protection, the Tibetans to Britain and later India for the same. Mongolia is today an independent country – a condition extracted by the Soviet leaders from Nationalist China and then the People’s Republic, regardless of the fraternal ties between them. Tibet is a country and culture on the verge of extinction, a sorry reflection on the Indian leadership If the Chinese felt the need to abrogate the Treaty in 1956, it means that they acknowledged its validity till the time of abrogation. For the second event, the clock needs to be turned back a little further. A few years earlier, starting in 1841, a war broke out between Tibet and the Dogra rulers of Kashmir. This resulted in Letters of Agreement being signed between the warring parties, under which the boundaries between Ladakh and Tibet were clarified and recognised and trade relations were regularised. Ladakh also agreed to pay an annual tribute to Tibet. Again the central authorities played no role in the entire episode. The importance of this agreement between Ladakh and Tibet in further establishing Tibetan sovereignty is also brought out in the Officials’ Report, as quoted above. Another aspect worth mentioning is the attempt at about this time by Beijing to regulate the selection of the Dalai Lama. This happened in 1793 and the central part of the regulations introduced by Beijing read as follows: “When the reincarnate boy has been found, his name will be written on a lot, which shall be put into a golden urn bestowed by the central government. The high commissioners will bring together appropriate high-ranking Living Buddhas to determine the authenticity of the reincarnate boy by drawing lots from the golden urn.” However, the Tibetan authorities ignored this and in 1804, the Ninth Dalai Lama was selected in the usual way by the Regent.

The final piece of evidence dates to the last three decades of the 19th century and involves British attempts to establish direct relations with Tibet. A bit of background would be helpful here. The strategic setting was the rapid expansion of two major Empires – the British and the Russian – towards the heart of Asia. The British Empire expanded west and north from Calcutta, the Russian south and east from St Petersburg. They met, or drew close, along the Central Asian redoubts. Tibet at this time was playing host to the famous historical figure Agvan Dorjiev, a Buryat monk who arrived in Lhasa in 1880 and soon became a debating partner of the Dalai Lama. The contemporary British media were replete with articles about the Russian advance into Tibet through the agency of Dorjiev. For long afterwards, it was doubted whether the Russians and Dorjiev were indeed playing any political role, but recent disclosures make it clear that there were indeed strategic and military matters under consideration between Russia and Tibet, through the mediation of Dorjiev. However, the British had their own plans and fears and turned to the Chinese Empire in order to use its supposed suzerain status to work their strategy in Tibet. The British had been trying to open relations with Tibet at this time, mainly to counter the Russian moves described briefly above and were doing this by attempting to involve the Chinese on their side. With this aim they signed an agreement in 1876 [the Chefoo Agreement the main objective of which was to let the British missionaries enter China, only one paragraph was about Tibet], but the Tibetans refused to accept the validity of this agreement as far as they were concerned and refused to be bound by its terms. A decade and a half later, they tried again through a second agreement with China, the Convention of March 1890, this time in order to regulate the boundaries between Sikkim and Tibet, as well as [through the Annex] to regulate trade between British India and Tibet. However, this agreement, like the previous effort by the British to work through the Chinese, did not succeed either and for the same reason. The Tibetans refused to acknowledge the validity of any treaty or arrangement

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

that did not directly involve them. Meanwhile, they were steadily moving to accept Russian protection, under the guidance of Dorjiev. The Russians were already emerging as perhaps the major strategic adversary to the British in Asia. Accordingly, after having waited for the Beijing connection to deliver, the British were forced to conclude that this was not going to work and they had to move independently and directly on Tibet. This was the genesis of the Younghusband expedition in 1903-04. The spur was the failure of Beijing to deliver on its part of the agreements signed in the late 19th century and the real reason was the success of the Russians in dealing directly with Tibet. The Russians did not entirely ignore Beijing and did sign a separate agreement with China, but it was clear that they were focusing on working directly with Tibet, which was responding positively.

The delegation was not empowered by the Dalai Lama to enter into any agreement on the status of Tibet [the Dalai Lama got the information through radio when he was in Chumbi Valley], but only to negotiate the withdrawal of the Chinese troops. Furthermore, even though the Dalai Lama was persuaded in the end to accept the 17-point Agreement as it has come to be known in history, it cannot be considered binding any more. It was denounced by the Dalai Lama in 1959 after he fled from Lhasa in Lhuntse Dzong, on his way to the Indian border. The International Commission of Jurists examined this denunciation and found in 1960, after the Dalai Lama had been forced into exile, that the denunciation was legally valid and tenable This was the situation the British faced at the dawn of the 20th century and decided that they had to take direct action, since China was unable to deliver on the commitments undertaken over the past twenty years. The result was the Younghusband expedition. Lord Curzon was the Viceroy and he declared that “the so-called suzerainty of China over Tibet [is] a constitutional fiction, a political affectation which has been maintained because of its convenience

to both parties”. At the end of the expedition, the two sides signed the Anglo-Tibetan Convention on 7 September 1904. Thus, the Tibetans were once more left to fend for themselves in the face of a military attack, without any aid from China. And once again, Tibet entered into a treaty with a foreign power without any role for Beijing. The provisions of the Convention of 1904 also make revealing reading; the preamble admitted that “doubts and difficulties about the meaning and validity” [emphasis added] had arisen over the 1890 agreement with China [a polite way of recording the fact that Tibet was refusing to recognise and therefore to implement that agreement]; the rest of the Treaty essentially ratified the substance of the earlier agreements between Britain and China on the border between Sikkim and Tibet and allowed for trade rights for British India. Finally, another important outcome was to check Russian influence in Tibet and Tibet was required not to cede or lease any part of its territory to any foreign power and to remove all foreign representatives and to extend no economic concessions to any foreign power. Russian influence was thus also blocked, though Dorjiev remained active in Tibet for some time longer. In the 1940’s the British repeatedly told the Tibetan Foreign Bureau that they signed the Convention and then left after a few weeks. They never acted as an invading power which remains in the invaded territories. They wanted to show the difference of attitude between China and HMG.

Dalai Lama’s own stated position that he no longer seeks independence from China but only a wide degree of genuine autonomy. This, however, is only a proposal and does not alter the legal status of Tibet What this episode shows again is that China played no role in defending Tibet and no role in treaty-making by Tibet. What is more, it also showed that treaties and agreements entered into by China on behalf of Tibet could not be implemented because Tibet would not acknowledge China’s

right to make any commitments on its behalf. And it demonstrated that such commitments would remain unimplemented.

The 1965 Resolution did not specifically reiterate the call for self-determination, but it reaffirmed the earlier Resolutions and had the support of India, among other major powers. Thus, the UN is committed to giving the Tibetans the right of self-determination, but this will obviously not happen as long as China remains willing to use its veto power in the UN Security Council. Nevertheless the legal position is clear and worth recording

The 20th century thus opened with Tibet becoming an active focus of the power play between the Great Powers and with China having played no role that a sovereign or suzerain would be required to play, though for completeness, it may be mentioned that Manchu China did help Tibet in 1792 during the war with the Gorkhas. But more was to come. Not for the last time, differences arose between the Viceroy in India and London over policy in Asia. In London, the view was that Britain had to work diplomatically with both China and Russia, the former to block the Russians in Tibet, the latter to prepare for the looming challenge from Germany. Thus, the Lhasa Convention between Britain and Tibet was reaffirmed by China in the British-Chinese Convention of 1906. This “confirmed” the 1904 Convention and stated that the

trade concessions granted under the 1904 agreement would not be available to any other state, other than China, thus addressing the fear of Russian influence in Tibet, by co-opting China for the purpose. Unfortunately for Tibet, the British further confirmed the dilution of the 1904 Convention by signing the Anglo-Russian Convention in 1907 which covered Afghanistan, Iran and Tibet. According to this, Tibet was once again, inter alia, deemed to be under the suzerainty of China. All this was the result of London over-ruling Calcutta in the larger interests of co-opting Russia over the growing differences with Imperial Germany, in the face of which London wished to settle as many issues with the other major powers as it could.

Tibet needed to be sacrificed for this purpose. [An interesting sidelight on the diplomacy of those days is that when the Kaiser Wilhelm examined the text of the Anglo-Russian Convention, he minuted on the text that this was clearly aimed against Germany.]

The matter did finally come up in the UN General Assembly in later years – in 1959, 1961 and 1965. The first of these was confined to the violation of the rights of the Tibetan people, but the second, in 1961, carried a call for the right of self-determination of the Tibetan people This was the tangled situation in the early 1900’s, when the Chinese Empire collapsed in 1911 and was replaced by a republican government. One of the early developments following this was the Tibet-Mongolia Treaty of 1913, under

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

counterpoint

which each recognised the other as an independent country. Although there have been some efforts to deny the existence of any such agreement, the Government of Mongolia made this Treaty public in 1982, at a time when relations between the Soviet bloc and China were extremely hostile. The Thirteenth Dalai Lama had also formally declared Tibet an independent country in 1912 and all Chinese officials, including all armed personnel, had been expelled. Representatives of Nepal had witnessed the agreement and its implementation. The Chinese were again expelled from Tibet in July 1949.

The US archives show that the Americans did try several times to persuade Nehru to do more to help Tibet, including at the UN, but it was not to be – Nehru was more concerned about his role in the Korea conflict This was the setting for the Simla conference in 1914. The conference began early in the year and representatives from Britain, Tibet and China were all present. They examined and accepted each others’ credentials, thus indicating that all three were participating as equals. The major result for India was the boundary between British India and Tibet – the McMahon Line. It also divided Tibet into an Inner and Outer Tibet [with the latter being autonomous, the former not], an issue that still rankles among Tibetans, for it left many Tibetans under direct Chinese administration [interestingly it is these populations who today oppose the Chinese rule on the Tibetan plateau]. The Chinese withdrew their representative, Chen I-fan [Ivan Chen], in protest because they did not approve of the line dividing Outer Tibet from China. This was the only reason and had nothing to do with either Tibet signing an agreement with the British as a sovereign country, or with the delineation of the McMahon Line. This fact was highlighted in the Eden Memorandum addressed to T V Soong, the Foreign Minister of China many years later, in 1943. By then, the Second World War was coming to a successful end – the Germans had already surrendered at Stalingrad – and the civil war in China was causing concern as to the eventual

outcome. This was why Eden communicated to the Nationalist Government that Britain had, since 1921, been regarding Tibet as an autonomous country under Chinese suzerainty, but with treaty-making powers. A brief quote from the Eden Memorandum will bring this out.

Since the Chinese Revolution of 1911, when Chinese forces were withdrawn from Tibet, Tibet has enjoyed de facto independence. She has ever since regarded herself as in practice completely autonomous and has opposed Chinese attempts to reassert control

Excerpt from the Eden Memorandum 1943 “Since the Chinese Revolution of 1911, when Chinese forces were withdrawn from Tibet, Tibet has enjoyed de facto independence. She has ever since regarded herself as in practice completely autonomous and has opposed Chinese attempts to reassert control.” This was reiterated in the House of Commons in December 1949. Since 1911, repeated attempts have been made to bring about an accord between China and Tibet. It seemed likely that agreement could be found on the basis that Tibet should be autonomous under the nominal suzerainty of China and this was the basis of the draft tripartite (Chinese-Tibetan-British) convention of 1914 which was initialled by the Chinese representative but was not ratified by the Chinese Government. The rock on which the convention and subsequent attempts to reach an understanding were wrecked was not the question of autonomy (which was expressly accepted by China) but was the question of the boundary between China and Tibet, since the Chinese Government claimed sovereignty over areas which the Tibetan Government claimed belonged to their autonomous jurisdiction.” [Emphasis added]. The American archives show a similar disposition in the US Administration which also made recognition of Chinese suzerainty conditional on autonomy for Tibet. And this was the situation that independent India inherited in 1947. Leaving aside the early period, by 1949, it was clear to most observers that the Communists were heading for victory in the civil war. The British resident in Tibet warned the Government in Delhi of the dangers for India through Tibet in such a development. Prime Minister Nehru’s assessment of this caution was typical in its combination of ignorance and intellectual arrogance, as he discounted any possibility of any such security threat. Writing an internal Note on 9 July 1949, he observed:

Excerpt from Nehru’s noting 1949 “Whatever may be the ultimate fate of Tibet in relation to China, I think there is practically no chance of any military danger to India arising from any possible change in Tibet. Geographically, this is very difficult and practically it would be a foolish adventure. If India is to be influenced or an attempt made to bring pressure on her, Tibet is not the route for it. “I do not think there is any necessity at present for our Defence Ministry, or any part of it, to consider possible military repercussions on the India-Tibetan frontier. The event is remote and may not arise at all.” This was the strategic appreciation that seemed to guide Nehru through the early traumatic years after the Chinese invaded and occupied Tibet in 1950. He seemed to be deeply committed to working with the Chinese in order to bring about a grand Asian revival and Tibet for him was a hindrance in this grand scheme. But in the process, he made blunders on Tibet which that unfortunate country and India too, is still paying for. It is noteworthy that Nehru had over-ridden Nationalist Chinese objections during the 1947 Asian Relations Conference which he hosted in April and allowed Tibet to

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

take part as an independent country and to travel on Tibetan passports, but he did not show anything like the same firmness in approaching the Communists. What made this even more inexplicable is the fact that the Nationalists had been active supporters of the Indian freedom movement, whereas the Communists had had choice things to say about Nehru and Indian freedom.

They examined and accepted each others’ credentials, thus indicating that all three were participating as equals. The major result for India was the boundary between British India and Tibet – the McMahon Line It also divided Tibet into an Inner and Outer Tibet [with the latter being autonomous, the former not], an issue that still rankles among Tibetans, for it left many Tibetans under direct Chinese administration [interestingly it is these populations who today oppose the Chinese rule on the Tibetan plateau] In time-honoured and indeed, treaty-bound tradition, the Dalai Lama, now already the [current] Fourteenth, then a teenager, turned to India when the Chinese troops occupied to seek refuge and support in 1950-51. He was preparing to goto the UN to lay out his case [he took refuge in Chumbi Valley a few months after sending his appeal to the UNGA], when the Indian Government decided that it would not sponsor any discussion on Tibet in the UN. As a non-member, Tibet could not bring up the matter in the UN itself. The reasoning of the Indian Government was that there was nothing anyone could do in military terms to help Tibet; further, any discussion in the UN would only antagonise the Chinese and make the situation worse for the Tibetans. Of course, this quite disregarded the fact that Tibet itself wanted the matter discussed at the UN. Further, it emphasised the irony that while India took the Jammu and Kashmir question to the UN, it would not support a reference on Tibet at the UN. Finally, [tiny] El Salvador agreed to sponsor the discussion. But just as the matter was coming up for discussion at Lake success at the end of

November 1950, the Indian delegation informed the UN that they had received word that China was willing to settle the matter peacefully. Hence, said the Indian representative, the matter should be withdrawn from consideration. The British and the Americans accepted the primacy of the Indian role in matters Tibetan and went along. The US archives show that the Americans did try several times to persuade Nehru to do more to help Tibet, including at the UN, but it was not to be – Nehru was more concerned about his role in the Korea conflict.

Lord Curzon was the Viceroy and he declared that “the so-called suzerainty of China over Tibet [is] a constitutional fiction, a political affectation which has been maintained because of its convenience to both parties”. At the end of the expedition, the two sides signed the Anglo-Tibetan Convention on 7 September 1904. Thus, the Tibetans were once more left to fend for themselves in the face of a military attack, without any aid from China. And once again, Tibet entered into a treaty with a foreign power without any role for Beijing. The provisions of the Convention of 1904 also make revealing reading It was not until 1956 that things began to change, as the ground situation continued to worsen and Tibetan resistance to Chinese occupation grew. For the purposes of this article, however, it is important to emphasise that the matter did finally come up in the UN General Assembly in later years – in 1959, 1961 and 1965. The first of these was confined to the violation of the rights of the Tibetan people, but the second, in 1961, carried a call for the right of self-determination of the Tibetan people. It was a short Resolution, but the operative part is worth quoting from:

Excerpt from UNGA Resolution 1723 of 20 December 1961 “The General Assembly Considering that these events violate fundamental human rights and freedoms set out in the Charter of the United Nations and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, including the principle of self-determination of peoples and nations and have the deplorable effect of increasing international tension and embittering relations between peoples, 1. Reaffirms its conviction that respect for the principles of the Charter of the United Nations and of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights is essential for the evolution of a peaceful world order based on the rule of law; 2. Solemnly renews its call for the cessation of practices which deprive

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

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counterpoint

the Tibetan people of their fundamental human rights and freedoms, including the right to self-determination;” [Emphasis added].

Tibet-Mongolia Treaty of 1913, under which each recognised the other as an independent country. Although there have been some efforts to deny the existence of any such agreement, the Government of Mongolia made this Treaty public in 1982, at a time when relations between the Soviet bloc and China were extremely hostile. The Thirteenth Dalai Lama had also formally declared Tibet an independent country in 1912 and all Chinese officials, including all armed personnel, had been expelled India did not sponsor or support either of the Resolutions and the explanation must be Nehru’s continuing commitment to seeking peace at any price with China. It did not work and the war of 1962 brought such humiliation and hurt upon Nehru that it would not be wrong to say that it destroyed his standing in the country and hastened his death in 1964. Notably, however, India did speak and support the next UN Resolution, in 1965, symptomatically, under a new Prime Minister. The 1965 Resolution did not specifically reiterate the call for self-determination, but it reaffirmed the earlier Resolutions and had the support of India, among other major powers. Thus, the UN is committed to giving the Tibetans the right of self-determination, but this will obviously not happen as long as China remains willing to use its veto power in the UN Security Council. Nevertheless the legal position is clear and worth recording. There is one other issue that needs to be addressed. This concerns the two legal agreements entered into by the People’s Republic of China with Tibet in 1951 and with India in 1954. As to the first, it was always under a cloud because the Tibetan delegation that signed it in Beijing was coerced into doing so and moreover, the seals were forged in Beijing itself. This had to be done because the delegation was not empowered by the

Dalai Lama to enter into any agreement on the status of Tibet [the Dalai Lama got the information through radio when he was in Chumbi Valley], but only to negotiate the withdrawal of the Chinese troops. Furthermore, even though the Dalai Lama was persuaded in the end to accept the 17-point Agreement as it has come to be known in history, it cannot be considered binding any more. It was denounced by the Dalai Lama in 1959 after he fled from Lhasa in Lhuntse Dzong, on his way to the Indian border. The International Commission of Jurists examined this denunciation and found in 1960, after the Dalai Lama had been forced into exile, that the denunciation was legally valid and tenable.

ICJ Report on Tibet and China 1960 (excerpt p. 346) “The view of the [Legal Inquiry] COMMITTEE was that Tibet was at the very least a de facto independent State when the Agreement of Peaceful Measures in Tibet was signed in 1951 and the repudiation of this agreement by the Tibetan Government in 1959 was found to be fully justified.” As to the India-China agreement of 1954, it was valid for eight years to begin with and lapsed in 1962. This happened in the month of April 1962, when relations between the two countries were extremely tense and war was to break out a few months later, in October. However, since the agreement has lapsed, there is no legal validity to this commitment. Legally, it means that Tibet and India revert to the previous Agreement i.e. the Simla Convention of 1914, which can be considered as a valid Treaty once the regulations of the 1954 Panchsheel Agreement have lapsed. What is noteworthy is that China used to insist on an inclusion in all the Joint documents with India that it should carry a reiteration of Tibet as a part of China. However, since the last two years, this reference is missing. There is, of course, a question mark on all this in light of the Dalai Lama’s own stated position that he no longer seeks independence from China but only a wide degree of genuine autonomy. This, however, is only a proposal and does not alter the legal status of Tibet. That will happen only when and if a new agreement is reached along the lines suggested by the Dalai Lama among the countries concerned. The Dalai Lama’s quest for genuine autonomy is different from the traditional British definition of ‘autonomy’ in this context, because London wanted responsibility for Foreign Affairs to remain with Lhasa. This is also the appropriate place to mention that the Dalai Lama is getting on in years and the Chinese have made it clear that they are preparing for a struggle over the succession and his reincarnation. In a reprise of the 1793 effort, they have again laid down their perspective on the reincarnation – something strange for an avowed socialist and atheist state to do. Nonetheless, they have the Panchen Lama under their control and it would be unwise to underestimate their determination to ensure their control over the choice of the next Dalai Lama. His Holiness is, of course, well-versed in the ways of the Chinese and is clearly preparing for the succession. However, the unambiguous status of the current Dalai Lama is a unique asset for Tibet and every effort needs to be made to settle matters within a reasonably short period of time. In closing, it is worthwhile reflecting upon the Tibet-Mongolia Treaty of January 1913. Both countries recognised each other’s independence. The Mongolians turned to Russia for guidance and protection, the Tibetans to Britain and later India for the same. Mongolia is today an independent country – a condition extracted by the Soviet leaders from Nationalist China and then the People’s Republic, regardless of the fraternal ties between them. Tibet is a country and culture on the verge of extinction, a sorry reflection on the Indian leadership.

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EVIL MACHINATIONS? “Indian elites show little evidence of having thought coherently and systematically about strategy.” - George Tanham

Lt Gen Kamal Davar PVSM, AVSM (retd) The writer is a distinguished soldier having served in all theatres of operations in his 41 years of service. A veteran of the 65 and 71 operations, he was wounded in action in the 1965 ops. He was the first armoured corps officer to be specially selected to be GOC Ladakh where he implemented many innovative operational and logistical innovations. He has been Chief of Staff of a Corps HQ in Jammu and Kashmir and then as GOC 11 Corps responsible for the defence of Punjab. He was especially selected by the Government of India to raise the Defence Intelligence Agency after the Kargil War. After retirement he writes and lectures on security issues. He is widely known to passionately espouse the cause of jointness in the Indian Armed Forces. As the first DG DIA, many intelligence initiatives including abroad were taken by him. That China will be a super power by 2025, if not earlier, will be understating a stark reality. If the 21st century has to be an Asian century, as repeatedly proclaimed by many geopolitical luminaries, China leads the way well ahead of the other players on the scene including India, Japan, S. Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia etc. China is usually bracketed with India as the lead players in emerging Asia but India merely plods along never having risen yet to its true potential because of its inner contradictions. That China sees India as its main rival, globally, regionally, economically and militarily, makes the growing asymmetric chasm between the two neighbours and Asian giants a serious cause of worry, in the foreseeable future, for India

One of the manifestations of changing Chinese doctrine is the introduction of a new cliché in the lexicon of Chinese think tanks, namely ‘Grand Periphery Military Strategy’. The Chinese move to expand high speed rail networks and equipping over 1,000 railway stations with military transport facilities points towards concrete military steps being taken in this regard. This will ensure rapid offensive deployment as required to the many and diverse border regions of China. Thus proactive military actions along several theatres will be a possibility. The excellent fast rail network to Tibet is a pre-eminent example of adherence to the Grand Peripheral Military Strategy of China and further its connectivity to Nepal and the Chumbi Valley is being planned in the near future. China’s nuclear weapons–cum-missiles nexus with its client state, Pakistan and modernising the Pakistani Armed Forces is singularly aimed against India. For China, Pakistan is a low-cost guarantor of security against India and China now a high value guarantor of security for Pakistan against India. Since the last two years or so, the Chinese footprint in the disputed POK region is growing.

CHINA’S GROWING ASSERTIVENESS:

SHAPING THE INDIAN RESPONSE

early 200 years back, Napoleon had prophetically stated that “let China sleep, for when she wakes, the world will tremble.” Today, China is the world’s fastest growing economy, with the largest, if not the most powerful, Armed Forces in the world and foreign reserves at US$ 3.2 trillion - far exceeding even those of the sole super power - the now economically weary and strategically fatigued US, all translating into China’s ever growing global clout. China’s burgeoning financial and consequently its military might continues to be on a rapid upswing propelled by its ancient civilisational wisdom of realpolitik embellished by a strategic vision and nationalistic ambitions which are distinctly unparalleled. That China will be a super power by 2025, if not earlier, will be understating a stark reality. If the 21st century has to be an Asian century, as repeatedly proclaimed by many geo-political luminaries, China leads the way well ahead of the other players on the scene including India, Japan, S. Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia etc. China is usually bracketed with India as the lead players in emerging Asia but India merely plods along never having risen yet to its true potential because of its inner contradictions. That China sees India as its main rival, globally, regionally, economically and militarily, makes the growing asymmetric chasm between the two neighbours and Asian giants a serious cause of worry, in the foreseeable future, for India. As China builds-up a formidable military machine, it is conscious of inculcating a responsible image for world consumption in keeping with its growing global status. Thus China has been since 1998, issuing every two years White Papers on national defence with the latest in the series issued late last year - on China’s National Defence in 2010. This paper comprehensively covers all macro-issues concerning national defence. China’s stated aim in its aforesaid White Paper is the pursuit of a defence policy which ensures a stable security environment and permits the development of its economy and the modernisation of its military. Importantly, it relies on military power as a guarantor of China’s strategic autonomy and aims to ensure that China continues to enjoy unrestricted access to critical strategic resources like oil and natural gas. China, further stresses that its national defence policy is primarily defensive in nature and that China launches counter-attacks only in self-defence. China further claims that it “plays an active part in maintaining global and regional peace and stability.” It continues to proclaim, that it follows a “no first use” nuclear doctrine and is a responsible nuclear and space power.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Most strategic analysts the world over and particularly its neighbours, however, dismiss China’s noble-sounding rhetoric as nothing more than a public-relations exercise as China’s actions in the past few years, all across Asia, have been anything but contributing to regional harmony. On the contrary, China is well on the way to have become a regional hegemon as many of its actions clearly show especially the turbulence it has created by its muscle-flexing in the many waterways which lap the Chinese coastline whether it is the South China Sea or the East China Sea including its many unfair claims on various island territories in South-east Asia.

China’s nuclear weapons-cum-missiles nexus with its client state, Pakistan and modernising the Pakistani Armed Forces is singularly aimed against India. For China, Pakistan is a low-cost guarantor of security against India and China now a high value guarantor of security for Pakistan against India. Since the last two years or so, the Chinese footprint in the disputed POK region is growing under the garb of engineer personnel being stationed in the region (approximately 7,000 to 10,000 personnel already there) and reports suggest that POK may be leased to China for 50 years or so

Grand periphery military strategy One of the manifestations of changing Chinese doctrine is the introduction of a new cliché in the lexicon of Chinese think

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EVIL MACHINATIONS?

tanks, namely ‘Grand Periphery Military Strategy’. This presupposes the fact that the People’s Liberation Army, surprisingly to many outsiders, lacked the capability of defending its ‘far flung borders.’ Now other Chinese military thinkers are reinforcing this newer strategy to be adopted in the face of rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics in South Asia, Central Asia, South-east Asia and North-east Asia. The Chinese move to expand high speed rail networks and equipping over 1,000 railway stations with military transport facilities points towards concrete military steps being taken in this regard. This will ensure rapid offensive deployment as required to the many and diverse border regions of China. Thus proactive military actions along several theatres will be a possibility. The excellent fast rail network to Tibet is a pre-eminent example of adherence to the Grand Peripheral Military Strategy of China and further its connectivity to Nepal and the Chumbi Valley is being planned in the near future. In addition, the rail link being conceptualised along the Karakoram Highway linking Xinjiang, through the disputed territory of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, to the warm water port of Gwadar in Balochistan along the Makran Coast is another example of Chinese strategic determination to extend its influence beyond its peripheries and dominate regions well away from its boundaries. As one of the signatories of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific sponsored 81,000 km long Trans-Asian Railway, China has come out with a plan to build high-speed rails to Laos, Singapore, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar along its south-east periphery. It has also got the signal to construct the China-Iran rail that will pass through the Central Asian countries of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Michael Caine and Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in their seminal work, Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present and Future, have opined that “the continued increase in China’s relative economic and military capabilities, combined with its growing maritime strategic orientation, if sustained over many years, will almost certainly produce both a re-definition of Beijing strategic interests … that directly or indirectly challenge many of the existing equities.”

China’s defence spending Freeing China from restrictive Maoist economic thinking, in the mid 70s, then China’s leader Deng Xiaoping had unleashed market reforms which The Economist aptly summarised as “ ... the most dynamic burst of wealth creation in human history.” This growing economic clout is translating into military muscle and modernisation of its forces at a pace which no country in the world can match. As is widely known, Chinese declared defence budgets are normally half of their actual value. From an annual defence budget of US$ 92 billion last year, the budget this year has shot up to a whopping US$ 106 billion, which, in real terms, would thus be around US$ 200 billion just for a year! According to the widely acclaimed defence consultancy,

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

IHS Jane’s, China’s defence budget is set to double by 2015 to a whooping US$ 238 billion and exceed that of all major Asia-Pacific countries put together. Japan will remain in defence spending a distant second with around US$ 64 billion. India with a falling rupee depreciation, heavy fiscal deficit and large government debts will be left far behind in defence allocations. The overall strategic implications for the entire Asia-Pacific region of China’s triple digit defence spending can be easily comprehended.

Leader Deng Xiaoping had unleashed market reforms which The Economist aptly summarised as “… the most dynamic burst of wealth creation in human history.” This growing economic clout is translating into military muscle and modernisation of its forces at a pace which no country in the world can match. As is widely known, Chinese declared defence budgets are normally half of their actual value. From an annual defence budget of US$ 92 billion last year, the budget this year has shot up to a whopping US$ 106 billion, which, in real terms, would thus be around US$ 200 billion just for a year! In the overall budget for 2011, for the first time the budget for Internal Security outstripped the Defence budget of the Chinese and this points towards internal stability concerns for China.

China’s core interests and internal imbalances It is not surprising to China watchers that China’s all pervading assertiveness has led to the definition and usage by both its official and unofficial institutions of its “core interests” spreading to embrace newer sensitivities. Earlier, such interests used to be confined to a few areas where the Chinese Communist Party would brook no dissenting views. These included its national security, national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Tibet came in as a major “core interest” after its forcible annexation in 1951 and so did the island of Taiwan, which was ceded to Japan in 1895 and today is an economically vibrant self-governing democracy, calling itself the Republic of China. The People’s Republic of China has repeatedly warned the world that it will invade Taiwan if it ever declares independence. More recently, the restive province of Xinjiang (formerly East Turkestan), the huge area in west of China which has seen frequent clashes between the local Uyghur Muslims and the Han Chinese being settled there from mainland China, has also been added to the list of China’s “core interests”. China has vociferously warned of its “core interests” in the South China Sea as non-negotiable to nations like Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Brunei which lie astride this waterway. It has cautioned the US to keep its naval vessels away from this waterway and only last year, it had aggressively cautioned an Indian naval vessel, INS Airawat which was sailing in the territorial waters of Vietnam where India is oil prospecting. China has now also included the sustaining of its existing political system as a “core interest.” Internal stability is currently the most critical constituent of China’s national security. The significant internal imbalances which worry China are Taiwan, Tibet, the restive Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region, uneven regional

• Land forces: The PLA is the world’s largest Army with 1.6 million men. As per the Military Balance, it has 40 divisions to India’s 28 with 7,660 main battle tanks to India’s 3,900 and nearly 18,000 artillery pieces to India’s a little over 10,000. Besides there are nearly 60 divisions worth of the People’s Armed Police as an internal security force, the bulk of which are demobilised PLA divisions.

development with the east, namely its coastal belt far ahead in development indices than its impoverished western region. In addition, Chinese concerns also embrace its demographic clock where its population is ageing at a rapid rate and it is estimated that by the mid-century, more than half of its population will be over sixty. Barry Naughton in his book on the Chinese economy has surmised that “China will grow old before it has had the opportunity to grow richer.” In addition China’s growing energy demands to fuel its growth is causing environmental problems both internally and internationally. Its unchecked modernisation is also causing severe environmental degradation inside China with acid rain getting worse and its total agricultural land having decreased by 20 per cent.

China is developing rapid reaction capability for catering to speedy and potent responses to varying battlefield contingencies. These high-technology based rapid reaction forces will cater for small scale intense local military operations or in support of pre-emptive operations

China’s defence modernisation China has shifted gears since the collapse of its major threat, namely the Soviet Union, in the early nineties of the last century. Their paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping had ordained that ‘small and medium local conflicts and not general wars were the most likely threats.’ Gradually the Chinese have, especially after the Gulf War, honed their doctrine to “Local Wars under Conditions of informationisation.” China’s military modernisation strategy is based on the “PLA’s simultaneous transformation” through mechanisation and informationisation. The Chinese have been rapidly building-up their Information Warfare capabilities. There are reportedly 30,000 computer professionals and two hacker brigades in the Chinese forces. • Strategic forces: China maintains nuclear deterrence employing land based ICBMs. China has currently around 250 nuclear warheads in its inventory with the arsenal growing. It has around 60 ICBMs (DF-31 of 8,000 km and DF-31A of 13,000 km range). By 2020, experts opine that it will have 100 ICBMs and 6 Jin class nuclear submarines each armed with 12 sea launched ballistic missiles. Besides DF-25 medium range ballistic missiles, China’s Second Artillery Corps has over 1,000 short range ballistic missiles with conventional warheads.

• The PLA Navy: For expanding naval ambitions not only in the seas surrounding it, but for naval operations against Taiwan and in the entire Asia-Pacific to thwart even the US flotilla and the navies of the other countries in its vicinity, the Chinese Navy is the focus of modernisation. By 2020-25, it could have three aircraft carrier battle groups, 60 submarines including 10 nuclear and nearly 80 surface combatants. The Indian Navy may just have two / three carriers and 16-18 submarines with 2 nuclear submarines and 58 surface combatants. • PLAAF: The Chinese Air Force is currently undergoing a feverish qualitative upgrade. Its vintage fleet is being rapidly replaced by third and fourth generation fighters like the Russian Su-27 and Su-30 and its Chinese copy, the J-11. The mainstay is the J-10 which is reportedly a F-16 equivalent fighter. It is also jointly developing the JF-17 multi-role aircraft with Pakistan and is programmed to receive 250 of these. Like India, it already has air-to-air refuelling and the AWACS capability. By 2020, it will have over 2,300 fourth / fifth generation combat aircraft compared to India’s 750 aircraft in the best possible modernisation scenario for India - thus this asymmetry remains operationally unacceptable. Importantly, it is planning to build 60 airfields in Tibet alone. • China tested its first anti-satellite missile in early 2007 and in 2010 conducted an anti-ballistic missile test. It has launched three manned missions and a lunar orbiter. It is planning for nano satellites that will serve as space mines and by 2020 plans to have 200 remote sensing satellites and a military space station - the first in the world! • Rapid reaction forces: China is developing rapid reaction capability for catering to speedy and potent responses to varying battlefield contingencies. These high-technology based rapid reaction forces will cater for small scale intense local military operations or in support of pre-emptive operations. The Chinese already have a fully operational Airborne Corps and another Z is under raising. These forces could be tasked also in support of China’s “core interests” as specified above, in case required.

Chinese Navy is the focus of modernisation. By 2020-25, it could have three aircraft carrier battle groups, 60 submarines including 10 nuclear and nearly 80 surface combatants. The Indian Navy may just have two / three carriers and 16-18 submarines with 2 nuclear submarines and 58 surface combatants

China’s water hegemony Tibet is the water reservoir of India. China virtually

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EVIL MACHINATIONS?

exercises control over the waters of rivers like the Tsangpo (Brahmaputra), Indus and Satluj flowing into India owing to is superior upper riparian position in the Tibet plateau. substantiated reports convey the alarming fact that China plans to unilaterally divert the waters of the Brahmaputra to its vast arid areas in the north and west. It also has commenced work to dam some other rivers flowing into India. India’s hydel project on the Brahmaputra, upstream of Pasighat, has been hanging fire for a very long time. Chinese callous attitude in its areas in water management upstream of the Indian rivers has resulted in two devastating flash floods for India. In June 2000 parts of Arunachal Pradesh were suddenly flooded due to the bursting of Yiong River Dam or release of water from the dam. In 2005 again, the Satluj river was flooded in Himachal Pradesh from the Pare Chu Lake in Tibet causing havoc to many low lying villages in some regions of Himachal Pradesh in the vicinity of the Indo-China border. In addition, its proposed construction of the 116 metres high Zangmu Dam on the Tsangpo in eastern Tibet in a high seismic zone can cause havoc to Assam in the event of a major earthquake in the region. Though Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh himself assuaged the concerns of Indian parliamentrians in the Rajya Sabha in August 2011 regarding China’s diversion of waters from the Brahmaputra or damming it inside China, India will be well advised to ensure its satellite intelligence coverage of China’s activities in this field are zealously monitored. China has a propensity to keep its water strategies under wraps and does not allow any outsiders for on-site visits. It has disregarded UN recommendations on water and information sharing on earlier occasions.

A wake-up call for India Notwithstanding the frequent and dozens of rounds of dialogue between India and China since the last few years to discuss many vexed issues between the two countries including the contentious border issue, Chinese actions towards India are hardly encouraging. China appears to be still suffering from the “Middle Kingdom” syndrome and resents Indian aspirations as the second Asian power. Its ‘string of pearls’ stratagem aims at the strategic encirclement of India to confining India to the backwaters of the Indian Ocean and to restrict India merely to South Asia. China’s nuclear weapons-cum-missiles nexus with its client state, Pakistan and modernising the Pakistani Armed Forces is singularly aimed against India. For China, Pakistan is a low-cost guarantor of security against India and China now a high value guarantor of security for Pakistan against India. Since the last two years or so, the Chinese footprint in the disputed POK region is growing under the garb of engineer personnel being stationed in the region (approximately 7,000 to 10,000 personnel already there) and reports suggest that POK may be leased to China for 50 years or so. China and Pakistan appear to have decided to convert POK as Pakistani territory and in doing so, legitimise the 5180 sq km of POK ceded by Pakistan to China in 1963 as Chinese sovereign territory. With these ominous developments, India thus faces another front to secure against Pak-China collusion.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

China has successfully made serious inroads into India’s immediate neighbourhood through Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka providing them subsidised arms and military training facilities besides constructing strategic infrastructure for them. China’s further mischief in issuing stapled visas to Indian citizens from Jammu and Kashmir visiting China and laying territorial claims to Arunachal Pradesh, calling it Southern Tibet, all point towards China’s evil machinations towards India. Despite India’s continuing friendly overtures towards China, at times bordering on the submissive, it appears that China will, most likely, adopt a confrontationist policy towards India. Competition for foreign markets and global influence are likely to spur multiple challenges between the two rising Asian giants and thus India needs to factor in the myriad Chinese stratagems in the long term perspective.

Prognosis and the Indian response The not so “peaceful rise” of China and its provocative actions vis-à-vis India - portends more competition than cooperation between the two Asian giants. China’s own stated reunification policies point to the fact that it can use military power to regain certain parts in its neighbourhood which it perceives to be its own. Thus, India as it endeavours to resolve all contentious problems with China in a mature and peaceful manner, must gear up to face the Chinese dragon squarely for China only respects strength. In order to do that we need to, firstly, correctly assess likely Chinese threats both in the short-term and long-term perspectives. In particular, the Indian government must not play down Chinese challenges in any form. Secondly, we must address with determination, the military asymmetry to counter the threat from China and ensure no bureaucratic sluggishness or procedural shortcomings in the identification and procurement of our military hardware for all the three services in a speedy time frame. The three services must be made capable for offensive operations in Chinese territory. Thirdly, we must pay adequate attention to further develop our strategic infrastructure leading to the Indo-China border. Nuclear and space assets require to be vastly improved as well as our electronic and cyber warfare wherewithal. Fourthly, under an international umbrella we need to go for either bilateral or regional water-management treaties between India and China and the other Asian lower riparian states. Fifthly, India needs to take the lead to energise all Asian groupings like the ASEAN to ensure peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region with active cooperation of the US and Australia. It is high time that India carried out a reality check of its overall capabilities vis-à-vis China. It now needs to upgrade its military strategy from dissuasion to deterrence. For effective deterrence, India needs to enhance the capabilities of its nuclear forces by fielding 5,000 km range Agni IV and Agni V Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles and sea launched long range missiles by nuclear subs to complete the nuclear TRIAD for our forces. The synergy of the three services and India’s future military build-up to deter the formidable Chinese will only be suitably energised if the country goes in for long awaited defence reforms in India’s higher defence management structure.

Tibet

COMMAND OF AIR

Air Vice Marshal A K Tiwary (retd) The writer commanded a MiG-29 Squadron in late 80s. His various command and staff appointments like Chief Operations Officer at a major Wing, operational planning at Command level, Director Concept Studies at Air HQ, Command of a major flying base, Head of the Training Team (Air) at Defence Service Staff College and Senior Directing Staff (Air) at National Defence College have conferred a rich practical experience. The air staff course at DSSC Wellington (TN), Command and Air War Course at the Air University, Maxwell Airbase, Montgomery (USA), all inducted and accelerated his interest in air war studies. After premature retirement he now flies as Commander on Boeing 737-800 NG.

It is not a target rich area for air strikes. The road-rail network is far more extensive in Tibet compared to Indian side. Generally Chinese military posts look down at Indian posts located at lower altitudes. The Indian side is marked by steep climb towards the border and prone to frequent landslides. The logistics build-up and / or troop’s relocation from one area to another is highly time consuming and seasonal due to climatic compulsions. The border is 4,000 km plus

An in-depth analysis of Chinese Airpower in Tibet and what we need to counter this growing threat. There are a total of 14 airfields of concern. However increasing air refuelling capability in future will increase their numbers. PLAAF can deploy around 16 squadrons in these airfields. Lt Gen Liu Yazhou, considered Douhet of China, said PLAAF’S first task is to gain command of air fighting in a local war under high tech conditions. Out of 1,600 plus combat aircraft with China, around 400 aircraft are 4th generation. H-6 will carry air launched cruise missile of 1,400 km plus range. In Tibet area its airfields lie within 300 to 1,000 km from IAF bases. Most of the airfields are at high elevation. The high altitude of TAR will reduce bomb load to around one third that of sea level. But today’s PGMs have reduced the required bomb load for target destruction significantly. Air refuelling and high performance of Su-27, Su-30 and J-10 will offset altitude disadvantage to quite an extent. Its old bombers carrying long range cruise missile will be still effective.

his article examines what role the PLAAF is likely to play in the unfortunate event of another Sino-Indian conflict. Both China and India are continental size nations. This geographical realty, the past non-aggressive history of both and the contemporary views on wars to occupy other’s territory rule out war for territorial conquest. This rules out the possibility of a total unlimited war, so characteristic of WW I and WW II.

climbing up again. It is a cycle of acclimatise, de-acclimatise and again acclimatise. It is a slow process requiring weeks. This severely restricts freedom to move troops quickly from one area to another. Napoleonic movements are out of question. This means that in order to defend everywhere we need dedicated troops in each area. To attempt this on a border extending over 4,000 kms will need phenomenal number of troops - a near impossibility.

The terrain adjoining border areas in Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) is at an average elevation of about 14-15,000 feet above mean sea level. It is a cold desert devoid of major habitation and any industries. It is not a target rich area for air strikes. The road–rail network is far more extensive in Tibet compared to Indian side. Generally Chinese military posts look down at Indian posts located at lower altitudes. The Indian side is marked by steep climb towards the border and prone to frequent landslides. The logistics build-up and / or troop’s relocation from one area to another is highly time consuming and seasonal due to climatic compulsions. The border is 4,000 km plus. Nepal and Bhutan situated as buffer states over nearly 1,500 km border results in problem in surveillance and detection should Chinese decide to invade from these areas as attack avenues.

Control of the air is the fundamental requirement to defeat Chinese misadventure. In addition the AWACS cover in TAR will provide immense safety to our strike aircraft from PLAAF fighters, keeping attrition within acceptable limit. If we do not keep attrition under control then again we would lose the war

High altitude acclimatisation, a necessity for both sides, is easier for Chinese. Because the TAR itself is on high plateau. On Indian side post acclimatisation, troops are restricted to that area only. Movement to another area entails coming down, moving laterally and

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

The targets on Chinese side, destruction of which could cause pain, are located far away from the border. The heartland of China, east and South-east China starts at an average distance of 1,000-1,500 km from our airfields. The heartland is around 2,500-3,000 km. They are far too distant for air power to destroy as it exists today in the IAF. Conventional warfare requires 3:1 numerical superiority for the attacker in plains. Highly contested, obstacle ridden plains require a ratio of around 5:1. In mountains this ratio shoots up to 10:1. If required China can bring in 30 divisions in TAR. They can relocate much faster at places of attack. If India decides to go on an offensive imagine the forces required?

PLAAF AGAINST INDIA Attrition Through Tibet ?

Appreciating the compulsion of topographical disadvantage, the then Army Commander in 1960, Lt Gen Thorat had suggested his strategy. His pragmatic plan proposed purposeful escalation of war wherein Chinese would advance down the mountains in to Assam plains. These plains would then be used as killing grounds by our forces after interdicting Chinese supply.

Likely war objectives The border dispute can be used as an excuse to start a war as the

strategic competition between China and India hots up in the future. Should this happen what are likely to be the war objectives? China’s aim would be to put India in a secondary status. A military defeat along with economic and industrial disruption would be the obvious aim. Large scale territorial occupation most unlikely. To make military defeat convincing cutting off North-east India at Chumbi Valley-Silliguri corridor would be ideal. North-east India could be restored to India after imposing humiliating terms in Ladakh region. In worst case China may not revert Arunachal.

India’s objective would be to defend its territory and to defeat China’s aggression. Command of air would be sought by both sides fiercely to ensure freedom for ground forces movement. Both sides would avoid major escalation of war due to nuclear backdrop. But here Chinese nuclear superiority would tilt balance and flexibility in their side. If India was to adopt Mao’s strategy of 50s, then she can avoid nuclear blackmail. In a speech at Moscow in 1957, Mao stated that China was willing to lose half its population to atomic attacks i.e. 300 million Chinese. It’s no great loss as China can again produce new

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

COMMAND OF AIR

citizens. But it will not succumb to Atomic Paper Tigers. In more recent times starting from Deng Xiaoping himself and later by Lt Gen Liu Yazhou, considered Douhet of China, PLAAF’S first task is to gain command of air fighting in a local war under high-tech conditions.

Likely forces in TAR As per one report China had deployed 5,00,000 soldiers on the Tibetan Plateau. Half of them were based on Sino-Indian border. Four additional Chinese Armies, each 60,000 strong were based in neighbouring Sinkiang and Chengdu military district able to support operations against India by flanking attacks or providing follow on re-enforcements.

PLAAF will have modern aircraft for both air defence and long range strike and Army support. It will have around 9 AWACS / AEW&C, Air Refuellers, surveillance and Electronic warfare aircraft in support. Space imagery will present good intelligence on our target systems. The fighters will have modern air to air missiles including beyond visual range active missiles In 90s another report estimated PLA fielding 12-14 divisions in TAR, which could go up to 20 divisions. Now the likely maximum could be around 30 divisions. If true this is really a large force. It would be a daunting challenge for the Indian Army. PLAAF is replacing its obsolete combat aircraft fleet and weaponry with current 4th generation fighters and modern weaponry. In Tibet area its airfields lie within 300 to 1,000 km from IAF bases. Most of the airfields are at high elevation between 3,500 to 4,300 meters above sea level. The table below gives details of these airfields. There are a total of 14 airfields of concern. However increasing air refuelling capability in future will increase their numbers. PLAAF can deploy around 16 squadrons in these airfields. They would deploy the best units here, unless our diplomacy can ensure simultaneous threats to China at other fronts. Out of 1,600 plus combat aircraft, around 400 aircraft are 4th generation. Its old bombers carrying long range cruise missile will be still effective. Ground launched cruise missiles (GLCM) and TBMs will add to the strike power. The table on the next page gives details.

Airfield

Elevation

Hoping

3,900 m

300 km

GongaDz

3,375 m

300 km

Pangta

4,200 m

360 km

Donshoon

4,300 m

450 km

Khotan

1,380 m

600 km

Kashgar

1,200 m

800 km

Shiqanhe

4,240 m

300 km

Golmu

4,500 m

1,000 + km

Bangda

4,240 m

200 km

Dequen

3,300 m

1,000 km

Kunming

1,900 m

800 km

Nachu

3,200 m

600 km

JeyKundo

1,600 m

1,000 km

600 m

800 km

Chengdu

Distance to IAF bases

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Thus it is evident that PLAAF will have modern aircraft for both air defence and long range strike and Army support. It will have around 9 AWACS / AEW&C, Air Refuellers, surveillance and Electronic warfare aircraft in support. Space imagery will present good intelligence on our target systems. The fighters will have modern air to air missiles including beyond visual range active missiles. Strike aircraft will have PGMs. H-6 will carry air launched cruise missile of 1,400 km plus range. The high altitude of TAR will reduce bomb load to around one third that of sea level. But today’s PGMs have reduced the required bomb load for target destruction significantly. Air refuelling and high performance of Su-27, Su-30, and J-10 will offset altitude disadvantage to quite an extent. TBMs and GLCMs will not be affected much.

The targets on Chinese side, destruction of which could cause pain, are located far away from the border. The heartland of China, East and South-east China starts at an average distance of 1,000-1,500 km from our airfields. The heartland is around 2,500-3,000 km. They are far too distant for air power to destroy as it exists today in the IAF Chinese airfields and other logistics related areas will have plethora of manual and automatic anti-aircraft artillery. In addition there will be MANPADs, close and medium range SAMs. Radar cover will be extensive at medium and high altitude.

Implication for India Timely intelligence input on Chinese build-up and its war intention will be crucial for Indian timely response. First India will need to ensure that Pakistan and Bangladesh fronts remain dormant. Use of diplomatic means, deterrence means etc. will

Aircraft / Missiles Quantity

Role

Remarks

Su - 30 MK

100

AD / GA

Su - 27 / J 11

171

AD / GA

200 more to come

J - 10

AD / GA

Production rate to go up. Indigenous

JH - 7A

Indigenous

J - 8 II

180

Indigenous

J-7

471

Indigenous

H-6

Bomber

ALCM armed

Cruise Missiles

In thousands

Ground launched

TBMs

In thousands

Conventional warhead

be required. This alone will permit India to maximise its Army and Air Force for Chinese fronts. Army’s mobilisation would be critical if the need to defend at the border itself is a must. It is instructive to see an outsider’s view of our mobilisation. Edward Luce, with respect to our mobilisation consequent to attack on our parliament stated, “ … watching India’s rusting military hardware chug past us reminded me of what I had read about the preparations for the First World War: mobilisation had followed the dictates of European railway timetables. Now India’s mobilisation, which was later dubbed ‘coercive diplomacy’ was occurring at the stately pace of the Indian Railways.”

China’s aim would be to put India in a secondary status. A military defeat along with economic and industrial disruption would be the obvious aim. Large scale territorial occupation most unlikely. To make military defeat convincing cutting off north-east India at Chumbi Valley-Silliguri corridor would be ideal. North-east India could be restored to India after imposing humiliating terms in Ladakh region. In worst case China may not revert Arunachal IAF down to 30 combat Squadrons is stretched on two fronts. Catering for even bare minimum air defence on western borders, IAF will be barely able to match PLAAF. An enhanced IAF on the other hand with inherent faster mobilisation and deployment without the acclimatisation need, offers the best hope of concentrating offensive power at places of our choosing. In future the gap between IAF and PLAAF will increase further unless urgent steps are initiated at once. IAFs SAMs are way too old. New ones are nowhere on the horizon in required numbers. Though we do have limited air refuelling capability and few AWACS, it is woefully inadequate. Our airbases and Army formations along with important areas will require sound air defence along the 4,000 km plus border. Chinese could also ingress from the Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan border. The Himalayan mountains severely limit the detection by ground based radars. This makes available warning time totally inadequate for reaction by aircraft based on ground alert. Airborne air defence 24 hours a day would require phenomenal resources. Nobody can afford it. This makes AWACS essential for survival. During Gulf war-91, MNF employed 3 AWACS simultaneously on a 1,000 km front. To keep 3 AWACS always airborne they needed to do

3 trips each of 9-10 hours. To fly 9 sorties each day MNF deployed 14 AWACS and 3 Nimrods. Thus to cater for our 4,000 km front we would need 56 AWACS. This would also cover the border at Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal. On the face of it this may seem too costly, but proper analysis would show it not to be so. Because with AWACS giving us a warning period of about minimum 30 minutes we will be able to scramble fighters from ground alert. This would also drastically reduce the required numbers of air defence fighters, the pilots and other support staff and equipment. PLAAF will be denied air dominance, rather this is the only way for IAF to gain and maintain control of air. Control of the air is the fundamental requirement to defeat Chinese misadventure. In addition the AWACS cover in TAR will provide immense safety to our strike aircraft from PLAAF fighters, keeping attrition within acceptable limit. If we do not keep attrition under control then again we would lose the war. Remember slaughter of Air Forces flying without AWACS cover in recent times.

As per one report China had deployed 5,00,000 soldiers on the Tibetan Plateau. Half of them were based on Sino-Indian border. Four additional Chinese Armies, each 60,000 strong were based in neighbouring Sinkiang and Chengdu military district able to support operations against India by flanking attacks or providing follow on re-enforcements For targets further inside, we need to employ our longer range SSMs and TBMs in conventional mode. If we want to use strike aircraft for deeper targets, then we would need to provide air defence escorts, as Americans learnt during World War II after suffering 18-25 per cent attrition in Europe. They had to suspend the bombing campaign for 6 months till long range escorts were produced by American industry. In any case in our scenario worthwhile targets lie beyond 1,000 km. We need to concentrate on interdicting supplies at rear and support of Army in battle area. These should be the target selection in a war of limited objectives. Chinese aviation industry and PLAAF are modernising at an increasingly rapid rate. Their doctrine has acquired the offensive dynamism learning from US experience. Their training, which was below par in the past, is improving no doubt with also help from PAF. Therefore, there is little time for us to lose.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

HYDRO-ARROGANCE?

Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi SM, VSM (retd) The writer is a combat veteran of many skirmishes on the Line of Control and counter-terrorist operations in Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab. He subsequently commanded the reputed Romeo Force during intensive counter-terrorist operations in the Rajouri-Poonch districts. He has served two tenures at the highly prestigious Directorate General of Military Operations. He is a prolific writer on matters military and non-military and has published 24 books and over 100 papers in many prestigious research journals. He is also Executive Editor of Defence and Security Alert (DSA) magazine.

China’s Air Force modernisation should worry us the most. From a vast and antiquated Soviet era fleet of the 1950s and 1960s vintage Mig-15, Mig-17, Mig-19 and Mig-21s, China today has frontline fourth generation fighters like the Su-27 and Su-30s, along with its J-10s and J-11s. By 2020, China will have an Air Force of over 2,300 4th Generation fighters to our 750. The pre-existing quantitative advantage is becoming a vast qualitative plus numerical edge. This is patently very dangerous. China is rapidly augmenting its Tactical Ballistic Missile and IRBM capabilities in Tibet. Any future war with China will commence with cyber attacks and salvos of missiles on our headquarters, airfields and logistic areas

China is the only country that is the upper riparian to all its neighbours. As a consequence, its state behaviour is characterised by a Hydro-arrogance bordering on Hydro-hegemonism. Hydrographic issues have the same resonance in China as Lebensraum had for Nazi Germany. China is seriously starved for water resources. The problem is made far more acute by the skewed distribution of these water resources in China. The region south of Yangtze has 36 per cent of Chinese territory and 81 per cent of its water resources. The northern region has 64 per cent of the territory but just 19 per cent of the water resources. Without Tibet, China would have been highly water-dependent and that accounts for the strategic importance of Tibet for the control of water. As water deficit continues to rise to alarming levels in China and the rest of Asia, the strategic salience of Tibet will rise with each passing day. Tibet will be the locus of all the water wars of Asia and the rest of lower riparian Asia (which is mostly Buddhist) may soon have vital stakes in the way the water resources and ecology of Tibet are managed.

INDIA-CHINA AND TIBET: SERIOUS POTENTIAL FOR CONFLICT

ibet is the water tower of Asia. 10 major rivers of this continent flow out from Tibet and China into 11 countries. 46 per cent of the world’s population depends on the waters of Tibet. These include the rivers Satluj and Brahmaputra that flow into India from Tibet. The Brahmaputra – the fourth largest river of the world, is the lifeline of north-eastern India and Bangladesh. More people depend upon this river for their sustenance than the entire populations of Europe and North America. It is vital for us to understand the hydro-dynamics of the flow of the Brahmaputra and what impact the construction of several dams in Tibet would have downstream (apart from the seismological danger of devastating earthquakes). 44 per cent of the waters of the Brahmaputra flow in from Tibet via the Dihang or Siang mainstream. The balance 56 per cent comes in from the tributaries south of the Himalayan watershed. These mainly feed the river in the monsoons. The 44 per cent that flows in from the glaciers of Tibet therefore is critical for sustaining the flow of the river in winters. In February-March this year, the main Siang stream almost ran dry. China is constructing a 510 MW dam at Zhangmu (which is said to be a run of the water project). 28 such dams are proposed, of which eight are already under construction. Media reports indicate that these projects will subsequently include the massive Motuo Dam (38,000 MW) and the Daduquia Dam at the Brahmaputra bend in Tibet (42,000 MW). These would dwarf the Three Gorges Dam and have a disastrous impact on the non-monsoon, dry weather, base flow of the Brahmaputra. This could cause the base stream to dry up and shift course in winters. This degraded channel in turn could lead to massive and devastating floods in the monsoons. Changing water courses in downstream Brahmaputra could spell disaster.

Any act of diverting the Brahmaputra waters away from reaching towards India should therefore rightly be considered as an act of war. Today, that war may unfortunately be closer than we think. In the late winter of February-March 2012, the base flow of the Brahmaputra has already been reduced to a trickle in Arunachal Pradesh. Any degradation of the base channel could have serious consequences, which will perhaps become apparent in this year’s monsoon itself.

China’s hydrological thought China is the only country that is the upper riparian to all its neighbours. As a consequence, its state behaviour is characterised by a Hydro-arrogance bordering on Hydro-hegemonism. Hydrographic issues have the same resonance in China as Lebensraum had for Nazi Germany. The reasons are not far to seek. China is seriously starved for water resources. The problem is made far more acute by the skewed distribution of these water resources in China. The region south

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

of Yangtze has 36 per cent of Chinese territory and 81 per cent of its water resources. The northern region has 64 per cent of the territory but just 19 per cent of the water resources. Without Tibet, China would have been highly water-dependent and that accounts for the strategic importance of Tibet for the control of water. As water deficit continues to rise to alarming levels in China and the rest of Asia, the strategic salience of Tibet will rise with each passing day. Tibet will be the locus of all the water wars of Asia and the rest of lower riparian Asia (which is mostly Buddhist) may soon have vital stakes in the way the water resources of Tibet are managed. Chinese strategic thought has always been hydrological in outlook. Today, all the Chinese top leaders are Hydrological Engineers by profession and they are determined to exploit to the ultimate the water resources and hydro-power potential of Tibet – if need be, at the cost of all of China’s neighbours.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

HYDRO-ARROGANCE?

The Non-Alignment 2.0 paper’s suggestion of “merely holding the line” in the Himalayas is highly self-contradictory and dangerous. We need to augment our military capabilities against China across the full spectrum of conflict and the suggestion that we use the threat of guerilla warfare in our own rear to deter a Chinese attack is amazing. The full spectrum of military capabilities includes Cyber Warfare, Precision Missile Attacks, Air Power and Counter-stroke / Counter-attack capabilities across the border It was possibly this underlying motivation and deep strain of hydrological thought that had impelled China to move west in 1949-50 and seize Tibet – the Water High Ground of Asia. It was a stellar example perhaps of Chinese far-sightedness and perspective thinking.

Chinese invasion The PLA had entered several areas in Easten Tibet (Amdo province) in 1949 itself. India was still reeling from the aftermath of partition and the wars in Jammu and Kashmir and the Liberation of Hyderabad. Gen Cariappa had to sadly say that there were no troops available to contest the Chinese advance into Tibet. Pandit Nehru then was far more concerned with his role as a global peacemaker and wanted to appease China. He dissuaded the Defence Ministry from doing anything at all about Tibet. India bent over backwards to appease and ingratiate China and facilitate the occupation of Tibet. In March 1950, the Chinese 2nd Field Army led by Marshal Liu Bo Cheng (the one-eyed Dragon) and his legendary Commissar, Deng Xiaoping, crossed into Kham province of Tibet. The advance was spearheaded by the 18th Corps. By mid-April 1950, over 30,000 troops had captured Dengko. The Tibetan Army was a ragtag bunch of some 2,000 to 3,500 men, armed with an assortment of Lee Enfields and muskets. They were hardly serious opposition and the whole exercise was primarily a logistical and road construction exercise for China. By October 1950,

the Chinese had cleared Eastern and Western Kham. The invading force now had three divisions of the 18th Corps and the 133rd division of the 46th Corps. By 25 October 1950, Kham had been cleared – the Tibetan Army was simply overwhelmed. On 09 September 1951, it was all over, the Chinese Army entered Lhasa in a massive parade to announce a Peaceful Liberation. Some 20,000 troops were soon garrisoned around Lhasa and Tibet had lost her freedom.

Tibetan resistance In the initial phase the PLA was very polite and courteous to the Tibetan people – trying its best to live up to the image of a Liberating Army. This changed rapidly. The sudden influx of large number of Chinese troops and road construction workers into Tibet created severe food shortage and inflation. Forcible taxation and levies started as logistical difficulties in Tibet began to bite. Then the PLA began its re-education programmes. The die was cast when it began to disarm the Khampas. Like the Pathan, the Khampa is wedded to his weapon. The Khampas revolted. Gompo Tashi Andrutshang, a legendary Khampa leader led the rebellion. Raga Pangdetshang was another significant Khampa resistance leader. Taktasar Rimpoche and Gyalo Thandup played a stellar role in this guerilla war. A secret organisation called the Chushi Gangdrung (Four Rivers, Six Mountain Ranges) was formed. The PLA launched a ruthless crackdown. Fierce battles took place all over Kham, in Central Tibet and primarily in the Lokha forest area opposite Bhutan and Tawang. The Chinese used jet bombers, tanks and artillery to ruthlessly put down this revolt. The monastery of Lithang was bombed by Ilyushin jet bombers and destroyed using tanks and artillery. Major battles were fought in 1958. The PLA pushed in 8 divisions into Tibet, totalling some 1,50,000 troops. In a major battle at Pembar in Nagchuka, some 30,000 Khampa warriors and their families were slaughtered by the Chinese in a massive encirclement and annihilation campaign using bombers, jet fighters and artillery. In 1959, the Chinese planned to arrest His Holiness, the Dalai Lama. He was spirited out by Khampa warriors to Tawang in fall 1959.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

The Tibetan resistance continued for some time in the Lokha area of southern Tibet facing Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh.

Recently, suggestions have been made that India should deter such a war by generating asymmetric war options in Tibet. The Non-Alignment 2.0 paper makes these suggestions of a build-up of our asymmetric warfare capabilities. These are very sensible proposals. However, in view of the nuclear backdrop, the paper also talks of just holding our defences on the Indo-Tibet border and dealing with China indirectly by a Naval build-up in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). These suggestions are purely theoretical kite flying and cannot form the basis of concrete policy. They certainly do not reflect the thinking and actual plans of the Indian Armed Forces. It is patently incorrect to bandy such loose suggestions around as policy prescriptions After the 1962 War with India, this resistance base shifted to the Mustang province in Nepal and most Tibetan resistance operations thereafter, were focused opposite Nepal. These petered out by 1971. The Tibetan Revolt was over. The excesses of the Chinese Cultural Revolution had hit Tibet very hard. Many Tibetan monasteries and religious manuscripts and artifacts were destroyed; and thousands of monks killed. By 1983, it was evident that some 12,07,487 Tibetans had been killed. Of these 4,80,000 were from Kham itself who had mainly perished in the heroic war of resistance. In 1987, riots again broke out in Tibet. These were put down fiercely. In 2008, there was another spontaneous uprising in Tibet. The Chinese now flew in their 15th Airborne Corps and many Rapid Reaction Units and put this uprising down with equal ruthlessness. The spirit of defiance and rebellion however refuses to die down in Tibet. In the last two years, a spate of immolations by Tibetan monks have again focused the world’s attention on to the unresolved question of the Tibetan Identity and highlighted the Chinese attempts at genocide and forced demographic change on the roof of the world.

Nehru stated in 1949, “Whatever may be the unfortunate fate of Tibet in relation to China, I think there is no chance of any military danger to India arising from any possible change in Tibet” (These would sound to be the famous last words in 1962). Nehru went further and forbade the Ministry of Defence to consider any military repercussions on the IndoTibetan border. He said, “I do not think there is any necessity at present for our Defence Ministry or any part of it, to consider possible military repercussions on the Indo-Tibetan frontier. The event is remote and may not arise at all.” Till as late as August 1962, the Indian Army was not even allowed to think of a War with China

India’s role – then and now At the time of independence, the Nehruvian Indian state had crafted for itself a narrative of exceptionalism. It felt it was an exceptional state in that it had entered the Westphalian system of states based on power via a non-violent struggle based on the soft power of Ahimsa and Satyagraha. Nehru, therefore tried his best to marginalise the military and placed excessive reliance on personalised diplomacy. Nehru seemed deeply committed to working with the Chinese to bring about a grand Asian revival. Tibet to him was a hindrance to this grand theme. Nehru stated in 1949, “Whatever may be the unfortunate fate of Tibet in relation to China, I think there is no chance of any military danger to India arising from any possible change in Tibet” (These would sound to be the famous last words in 1962). Nehru went further and forbade the Ministry of Defence to consider any military repercussions on the Indo-Tibetan border. He said, “I do not think there is any necessity at present for our Defence Ministry or any part of it, to consider possible military repercussions on the Indo-Tibetan frontier. The event is remote and may not arise at all.” Till as late as August 1962, the Indian Army was not even allowed to think of a War with China. Even at that stage Sardar Patel had warned of the implications of the strategic Chinese move into Tibet.

B N Mullick, India’s first Director IB was in fact keen that India take some military steps to prevent the Chinese conquest of Tibet Nehru occupied himself with efforts to bringing about a truce in Korea. He was too much of a world statesman to be bothered by regional digressions like Tibet. His errors of judgment with regards to these crucial regional developments were to prove tragic for Tibet and a little later for India herself. Nehru consciously strove to avoid any military / logistics support to the Tibetan rebellion. However, the flight of the Dalai Lama in 1959 presented him with a Hobson’s choice. Culturally, he could not disown the most significant Buddhist leader in all Asia or refuse to provide shelter to the Tibetan fugitives. In sharp contrast to Nehru’s narrative of soft power and exceptionalism, the Chinese were great votaries of hard military power. They simply could not comprehend the moralistic rhetoric and posturing of Nehru. They were hard-headed realists and tended to interpret the Indian actions in their own realist construct and militarist framework. Nehru, they felt was unreconciled to Chinese occupation of Tibet and wanted to eject them by asymmetric warfare. This was incorrect. The best Pandit Nehru could have hoped for the Tibetans was a measure of autonomy that would preserve their culture and way of life under Chinese suzerainty. The Chinese misunderstood this as India’s intransigence and a desire to eject the Chinese from the Tibetan plateau. The border dispute therefore, was a convenient excuse for the Chinese. Nehru was now driven by public opinion to stop his endless appeasement of China. He therefore had to get adamant on the issue of

the border and this gave the Chinese the pretext they were seeking to teach India a hard and painful lesson (La dang da tang). In fact, Mao and his military leadership consciously decided to inflict a humiliating and awe-inspiring (Wei feng) military defeat on India. This, Mao felt, would keep the Indians quiet for the next 30 years or so.

A secret organisation called the Chushi Gangdrung (Four Rivers, Six Mountain Ranges) was formed. The PLA launched a ruthless crackdown. Fierce battles took place all over Kham, in Central Tibet and primarily in the Lokha forest area opposite Bhutan and Tawang. The Chinese used jet bombers, tanks and artillery to ruthlessly put down this revolt. The monastry of Lithang was bombed by Ilyushin jet bombers and destroyed using tanks and artillery. Major battles were fought in 1958. The PLA pushed in 8 divisions into Tibet, totalling some 1,50,000 troops. In a major battle at Pembar in Nagchuka, some 30,000 Khampa warriors and their families were slaughtered by the Chinese in a massive encirclement and annihilation campaign using bombers, jet fighters and artillery. In 1959, the Chinese planned to arrest His Holiness, the Dalai Lama. He was spirited out by Khampa warriors to Tawang in fall 1959. The Tibetan resistance continued for some time in the Lokha area of southern Tibet facing Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh Though in 1962, the PLA attacked in both, Ladakh and NEFA (Arunachal Pradesh), it deliberately

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

HYDRO-ARROGANCE?

selected NEFA as the centre of gravity of its operations because it felt it could have drawn in greater Indian troop levels here and annihilated them in a sharp and painful manner. At best, the Chinese used three divisions in this campaign and the battles never went beyond the tactical level. However a localised command failure in Kameng gave the Chinese a very cheap military victory. The demoralised and unprepared Indian Army was routed and the Chinese reached the foothills. There was unseemly panic in New Delhi and Assam. The psychological impact of this tactical level battle went far beyond its actual military scale.

Tibet is the water tower of Asia. 10 major rivers of this continent flow out from Tibet and China into 11 countries. 46 per cent of the world’s population depends on the waters of Tibet. These include the rivers Satluj and Brahmaputra that flow into India from Tibet. The Brahmaputra – the fourth largest river of the world, is the lifeline of north-eastern India and Bangladesh. More people depend upon this river for their sustenance than the entire populations of Europe and North America Fortunately 1962 was a well needed wake up call for India. The defeat spelt the end of the Nehruvian world view of exceptionalism and saw the onset of realism in the Indian polity. The Armed Forces were rapidly expanded and modernised. This worried Pakistan, which saw 1965 as the last chance to wrest Kashmir by force. Pakistan attacked India and despite the flux and organisational turbulence, the Indian Army did well. Its senior commanders gained invaluable hands on experience and two corps sized counter offensives were launched in Punjab which forced Pakistan to recoil from Chammb and subsequently the Indian Army routed the Pakistani Armoured Divisions offensive in Asal Uttar. By 1971, with considerable Soviet support, India’s hard power build-up was complete. India astounded the world with a classic Tri-service Blitzkrieg, which broke Pakistan in two; and for the first time after the Second World War, created a new nation state with the force of arms. It was the finest hour of Indian

politico-military leadership and 1971 was a decisive military victory which entailed a march on an enemy capital and regime change. In the 1980s, Gen K V Krishna Rao launched Op Falcon to transform the overtly timid post-1962 defensive posture against the Chinese. This had envisaged leaving large stretches of our border areas undeveloped, so as not to present any avenues of advance to the Chinese. This posture also assured a complete absence of any ability to hit back or launch any counter-strokes or counter offensives against China. Gen Krishna Rao therefore decided to build the logistics infrastructure and push our defences forward to the extremities of our territory to generate options for counter strokes/ counter-offensives in response to any future Chinese attack. In Gen K sunderji’s time this led to a major escalation during Exercise Chequer board (which was launched in response to the Chinese intrusion at Wangdung). This rattled the Chinese. China under Deng Xiaoping had begun her four modernisations and needed a peaceful periphery to consolidate her economic progress, before she began her military build-up. China made appropriate noises and Rajiv Gandhi made his famous visit to Beijing in 1988. This resulted in a significant de-escalation on the Indo-Tibet border. The entire forward posture exercise undertaken by Gen Krishna Rao was now dumped for a supposed diplomatic triumph. The Chinese very cleverly put the border issue on a backburner and thereby retained it as a negative leverage against India in any contingency, where the situation in Tibet would deteriorate sharply. So, India stopped her infrastructure development in the Himalayas while the Chinese intensified theirs in Tibet. They used this peaceful period to construct the Qinghai-Tibet railway line, which created a paradigm shift in their logistical capabilities. They improved their road highway network and constructed a score of major airfields. The Chinese now began to build Pakistan as a nuclear and military counterweight to India in South Asia. They gave Pakistan unprecedented support for its nuclear bomb project and gifted it M-9 and M-11 missiles. When the Americans imposed sanctions, they put Pakistan

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

in touch with North Korea for the Nodong and Taepodong missiles. They gave Pakistan MiG-19 and MiG-21 fighters, tanks, guns and frigates at friendship prices and emboldened it to launch a proxy war against India in Jammu and Kashmir. Thus, while China got a peaceful periphery to complete its economic and military modernisations unhindered, India was needled constantly by Pakistan. Yet, India took China’s peace initiatives very seriously. We stopped all infrastructural development in the Himalayas for over two decades and whatever infrastructure existed in the forward areas also suffered by neglect. By the 1990s, India’s entire Soviet era military equipment (supplied in the 1960s and 1970s) was due for an across the board change. This military modernisation had to be postponed for two decades till our economy could revive. We are now in the process of spending some US$ 100-130 billion to recapitalise our military stock. We are desperately trying to build our infrastructure in the Himalayas. The Chinese threat in Tibet earlier used to be just 6 divisions in a low level threat scenario. It was deemed 22-24 divisions in a high-level threat scenario. However, given the poor logistics infrastructure in Tibet, such a build-up would have taken the Chinese two seasons and given adequate warning to India. Today, thanks to the Qinghai-Tibet Railway line, China can build up to 34 divisions in a matter of months. A fair number of these are armoured and mechanised divisions that could chew up our Infantry or Mountain Divisions in the flatter terrain of the Tibetan plateau. Chinese defence budget has been accelerating in double digit percentile terms every year for over two decades. Today, China’s official defence budget stands at US$ 106 billion a year. This Chinese budget hides a lot and the US estimates the actual Chinese defence budget to be over US$ 160 billion a year. India’s defence budget in comparison stands at a paltry US$ 39 billion. Even out of this budget, the Finance Ministry is keen to reduce the military allocations already made this year to cater for the burgeoning fiscal deficit. China’s modernisation

Air should

Force worry

(IOR). These suggestions are purely theoretical kite flying and cannot form the basis of concrete policy. They certainly do not reflect the thinking and actual plans of the Indian Armed Forces. It is patently incorrect to bandy such loose suggestions around as policy prescriptions. such a radically different military approach needs far more wide ranging debate and consensus and is wholly out of sync with the views of the Armed Forces. It cannot be elevated to the policy level without at least in-house discussion and debate amongst the Armed Forces.

Asymmetric warfare capabilities us the most. From a vast and antiquated Soviet era fleet of the 1950s and 1960s vintage Mig-15, Mig-17 Mig-19 and Mig-21s, China today has frontline fourth generation fighters like the Su-27 and Su-30s, along with its J-10s and J-11s. By 2020, China will have an Air Force of over 2,300 4th Generation fighters to our 750. The pre-existing quantitative advantage is becoming a vast qualitative plus numerical edge. This is patently very dangerous. China is rapidly augmenting its Tactical Ballistic Missile and IRBM capabilities in Tibet. Any future war with China will commence with cyber attacks and salvos of missiles on our headquarters, airfields and logistic areas. We can also expect multi-barrel rocket launcher barrages to precede such attacks. The pace of Indian Military Modernisation has been pathetically slowed to a crawl. The stink of defence scams has induced a decisional paralysis that is slowing down our arms acquisition, even as the Chinese are accelerating theirs and building-up Pakistan’s nuclear, missile and conventional military capabilities. By our tardiness and lackadaisical attitude, we are opening up huge windows of vulnerability. The most dangerous period is between now and 2017-18. Hopefully by then our MMRCAs and LCAs will begin coming in significant numbers, alongwith our Aircraft Carriers and submarines as also the long awaited artillery and Army Aviation replacement equipment.

The era of water wars and Non-Alignment 2.0 So, as we enter the era of water wars in Tibet, we find ourselves once again, woefully unprepared militarily and logistically. The Chinese may not divert the Brahmaputra. However, even a series of hydro-electric dams on the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet could reduce the main Siang base channel to a trickle. It could degrade this channel, leading to huge changes of course in the monsoons and consequent devastating floods of unprecedented magnitude in the plains of Assam. In fact, such downstream devastation would be construed as an act of war. The simple question is, are we prepared for such a war? Recently, suggestions have been made that India should deter such a war by generating asymmetric war options in Tibet. The Non-Alignment 2.0 paper makes these suggestions of a build-up of our asymmetric warfare capabilities. These are very sensible proposals. However, in view of the nuclear backdrop, the paper also talks of just holding our defences on the Indo-Tibet border and dealing with China indirectly by a Naval build-up in the Indian Ocean Region

However, the veiled suggestion to augment our offensive Asymmetric warfare capabilities against China is pertinent and timely. China has resumed its military support to the north-east insurgents and is desperately trying to reach out to the Maoists in Central and Peninsular India. Recently, China transferred a complete AK-47 factory to the Kachin Independence Army in Myanmar for onward supply to north-east rebels and Maoist insurgents in India. This, by itself, would justify a tit-for-tat response. However, such a response could be escalatory and could trigger a conventional military conflict. Hence, the Non-Alignment 2.0 paper’s suggestion of merely holding the line in the Himalayas is highly self-contradictory and dangerous. We need to augment our military capabilities against China across the full spectrum of conflict and the suggestion that we use the threat of guerilla warfare in our own rear to deter a Chinese attack is amazing. The full spectrum of military capabilities includes Cyber Warfare, Precision Missile Attacks, Air Power and Counter-stroke / Counter-attack capabilities across the border. The hard power component of the Non-Alignment 2.0 paper suggests that China will in all probability only carry out nibbling action and we should “counter nibble” (in a return to the disastrous Forward Policy of 1962, which was also premised on the construct that China would launch no large scale attack). That had bred a disaster in 1962 and we should not replicate that erroneous mindset. such radical suggestions need to be discussed in-house with the Armed Forces, before they are aired from forums so close to the policy formulation organs in India. India needs to rapidly enhance her dissuasive capabilities vis-à-vis China across the entire spectrum of conflict. Mountain warfare is a manpower intensive form of war. In view of the enhanced threat profile of China to Arunachal Pradesh, India has rightly raised two additional divisions and generated Three Corps plus capability in the north-east against China. We urgently need to add a Strike Corps and it is here that the Non-Alignment 2.0 style kite flying is misplaced and ill-timed; and could further delay our military build-up against China. Assuredly we need to build-up our Naval power in the IOR. However that cannot be made into an “either or equation” and be at the cost of a military build-up in the Himalayas to counter the Chinese build-up in Tibet. This has already been delayed for far too long. Any further delay could be fatal. Conflict is indeed looming on the Roof of the World. Why has China enhanced the threat profile in Arunachal Pradesh? Is it setting the stage for Water Wars and trying to preempt anything India might do in response to the damming of the Brahmaputra in Tibet?

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

ENHANCING DEFENCE CAPABILITIES

Rear Adm (Dr) S Kulshrestha (retd) The writer has held the post of Director General Naval Armament Inspection at the NHQ prior to his superannuation. He is an ardent exponent of indigenisation and self-reliance in the field of military weapon systems and armament. Developing military specific nanomaterials, nano aircraft, nano engine technologies, nanosensors and nanosatellites etc. Nanotechnology has enabled significant improvements in triggering devices of strategic weapons by ruggedising, fusing, arming and exploding mechanisms. Further on another front, there has been a quest to develop very low yield nuclear explosives which could be used as controlled micro explosions source for nuclear bombs as well as weapons if compact fusing mechanisms were available

The MEMS (micro-elctro-mechanical systems) revolution, has opened frontiers of scientific developments which will have great significance in national defence and economy; it will usher in a ‘nano-era’ in the 21st century encompassing; nanobiology, nano manufacturing, nanomechanics, nano-electronics, nanomicrology, nanocontrol, nanosurveying and the study of nanomaterial.

conference of National Nanotechnology Coordination Committee was held in Beijing on 11th January 2011, where in it was announced by the Chinese minister for Science and Technology, Mr Wan Gang that China would seek original breakthroughs in nanotechnology in the next five years and would have in place national nanotechnology programme to achieve the same. The Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Sciences however, indicated that there were several shortfalls in the strides made in nanotechnology and that clarity about the specific needs of the industry for nanotechnology was still an issue.1 In the same conference it was brought out that, whereas, China had invested 1.5 Bn Yuan in the period 2001-05 on R&D in nanotechnology, in the period 2006-10 it had spent more than 3 times the amount, i.e. 5 Bn Yuan. Further, two national level research centres in addition to the National Centre for Nanoscience and Technology were also established. China had also become the second largest patent applicant in the world in the field of nanotechnology, with over 12,000 patents in 2009, as against 4600 in 2005. China appears to be a late entry to the nanotechnology scene as hardly any details were available about its involvement in nanotechnology prior to 2000. If reports coming out of China are to be believed, today it has become a multi-billion Yuan flourishing industry at urban centres like Shanghai, Beijing and Hangzhou. The tremendous strides in nanotechnology have its roots in the late 1990s, when both the central and local governments provided large funds for its development under the National 863 Hi-Tech R&D plan with specific time lines. It would be worthwhile to discuss in brief the Chinese philosophy and approach to development of emerging technologies, which has apparently spurred growth of nanotechnology in China. The Chinese believe that in today’s world

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

in Nano-Technology

warfare implies not only weapons, but also a contest in totality with the adversary involving military, politics, economics and science and technology. Thus weapons need to be developed keeping all these factors in forefront. Therefore when the science and technology is advancing at a rapid rate and better and better weapons are being designed it is imperative that the material base (R&D) of the defence economy be outstandingly strong. In the words of General Mi Zhenyu: “Weapons development is reliant on the development of the national economy. It also encourages the growth of national defence science and technology. Military high-technology also gave impetus to the development of the economy. Looking at this from two-dimensional space, this big “O” cycle could possibly expand further. Analysing it from a three-dimensional space, this kind of spiralling trend is perfectly suited to the objective laws of material development.”2 The advancements in technology on the battlefield bring about changes in military theory and tactics to be adopted, which leads to a gamut of changes in strategic thought, defence structures, combat doctrines etc. In fact in his view, development of weapons “enhances man’s strategic consciousness, deepens his strategic reflections and increases the emphasis on strategic projections”. Further China, sees itself a major force for the preservation of world peace along with the Third World countries, this aspiration demands that it should have a sound weapon development programme and the military wherewithal to protect itself against aggression from outside its borders. Major General sun Bailin of the Academy of Military Science had expounded his views on nanotechnology in an article “Nanotechnology weapons on future battlefields” in National Defence, June 15, 1996.3 With reference to the MEMS (micro-elctro-mechanical systems) revolution, he believes that it has opened frontiers of scientific developments which will

1. Xinhuanet Web site [Online web] Accessed on 29 Jan 2011 URL: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-01/c_13686054.htm 2. ZhenyuMi (1998), China's National Defence Development Concepts, Edited by Michael Pillsbury, Chinese Views of Future Warfare, National Defence University Press , Washington DC, 1998. 3. Quoted in ‘Chinese Views of Future Warfare’, Edited by Michael Pillsbury, National Defence University Press, Washington DC, 1998.

Chinese Advances

have great significance in national defence and economy; it will usher in a ‘nano-era’ in the 21st century encompassing; nanobiology, nanomanufacturing, nanomechanics, nano-electronics, nanomicrology, nanocontrol, nanosurveying and the study of nanomaterials. Further, he believes that both Nano and MEMS are in the dual use regime and hold tremendous potential for growth in military power and economics. He has talked about: ‘Ant robots’ which could replicate themselves and lie dormant in enemy war equipment till activated to destroy them. ‘Blood vessel submarines,’ for molecular surgery.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

ENHANCING DEFENCE CAPABILITIES

‘Distributed Battlefield Microscale Sensor Networks’ dispersing swarms of these molecular devices, which are practically invisible, for gathering battlefield environment information. ‘Nanosatellites’ would be step forward of the information gathering molecular devices and could form a local distributed satellite system, or for complete 24/7 earth coverage a total of 648 nanosatellites could be placed in orbit (with 36 nanosatellites placed evenly into each of 18 equally spaced solar stationary orbits). In his view the crucial military technology in the 21st century would be nanotechnology and nanoweapons would bring about profound and fundamental changes in military thought and affairs.4

Review of progress in nanotechnology With the above backdrop a review of China’s progress in nanotechnology is discussed in succeeding paragraphs. A development strategy plan in respect of nanotechnology for the period 2001-2010, was issued by the Ministry of Science and Technology in 2001. The plan was drawn in consultation with the National Natural Science Foundation Committee (NNSFC), the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Ministry of Education and, the National Development and Programme Committee. Under the plan continuous improvements are sought in innovation, development of technology and establishing industrial products specific to China’s long term national development objectives. In medium term the aim is to develop nanomedical and bionano technologies, whereas in the long term emphasis is on nanochips and nanoelectronics.

700 Institute level agreements and about 70 cooperation agreements, spanning over 60 countries, have been signed by The Chinese Academy of Science (CAS). These encompass multi-lateral and bilateral seminars, workshops, joint ventures, young scientist groups, joint investigations, training courses, etc. Thus it can be seen that China is not shying away from acquiring fundamental research benefits through collaborations

In basic research and advanced technology, exploration and innovation are emphasised; in applications, the development of nanomaterials is the main objective for the near future. The development of bionanotechnology and nanomedical technology is a main objective for the medium term, whereas the development of nanoelectronics and nanochips is a long-term objective. Therefore across the board coordination and safe guarding of IP rights is to be mandated. The key areas identified include; accelerating communication and multidisciplinary R&D, aligning market requirement with R&D, aligning nanotechnology development with innovation policy, keeping focus on IPR while promoting fundamental and applied research. The tenth five year plan highlights; exploring market requirement based application, focus on mass production, research and education, accelerating nanotech research leading to formation eventually of national nanotechnology system, by first establishing a nanotechnology centre. As fundamental research bears fruit, it will be utilised to design new nanochips, nanomaterials and structures using molecular manufacturing techniques. subsequently a database and a standard on national level would be established, creating a fertile ground for flourishing of industrial applications and nanotech industry. The Chinese government plans to provide strong support to existing labs and institutions to enable them to become leading nanoscience laboratories, this will also lead to an internal competition amongst them and in turn, better research outputs. For achieving this goal two approaches have been identified (Gu, Schulte, 2005): 6 A national science nanotechnology research centre with latest equipment is to be established as a national pilot centre with multi-disciplinary environment.

Strategic collaborations

Nanotech R&D centres Beijing and Shanghai have the two major R&D centres for nanotechnology in China. The Beijing Nanotechnology centre encompasses, Beijing Chemical Engineering University, Tsinghua University, Beijing Institute of Construction Materials Research, Beijing Science and Technology University, Beijing Normal University, Nankai University, the Beijing Steel Chief Research Institute, Jilin University, Tianjing University, Beijing University, Chinese Academy of Science Institutes(Semiconductors, Physics, Chemistryand Metallurgy) etc.

The MEMS (micro-elctro-mechanical systems) revolution, has opened frontiers of scientific developments which will have great significance in national defence and economy; it will usher in a ‘nano-era’ in the 21st century encompassing nanobiology, nanomanufacturing, nanomechanics, nano-electronics, anomicrology, nanocontrol, nanosurveying and the study of nanomaterial

The Chinese Government has set up a national nanotechnology development overseeing committee, called the Guidance and Coordination Committee of National Nanotechnology with representation from all connected and relevant ministries.

The Shanghai Nanotechnology centre encompasses Shandong University, Chinese Science and Technology University, Tongji University, Huadong Normal University, Nanjing University, Huadong Science and Engineering University, Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutes (Metallurgy, Solid Physics, Silicates and Nuclear Science) Shanghai Technological Physics Institute, Zhejiang University, Fudan University, Shanghai Jiaotong University etc. In addition to the above, Chengdu, Xian and Lanzhou are the cities where nanotechnology research is being carried out.

Funding for nanotechnology comes from programme 973 and 863, the Natural Science Foundation and the National Technology Gong Guan Programme. Private funding is not yet very significant but is likely to catch up in future as more and more applications mature.

The development of nanomaterials is the main objective for the near future. The development of bionanotechnology and nanomedical technology is a main objective for the medium term, whereas the development of nanoelectronics and nanochips is a long-term objective

4. Bailin Major General sun (1996), “Nanotechnology weapons on future battlefields” in National Defence, June 15, 1996; quoted in ‘Chinese Views of Future Warfare’, Edited by Michael Pillsbury, National Defence University Press , Washington DC, 1998 5. Gu, Hongchen and Schulte, Jurgen (2005), Scientific Development and Industrial Application of Nanotechnology in China, in Nanotechnology: Global Strategies, Industry Trends and Applications Edited by J. Schulte, 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 6. 1,ibid

The national and local governments have set up organisations for promoting nanotechnology, some of them are; the Jiangsu Engineering Center of Nanotechnology, the Guidance and Harmonisation Committee of National Nanotechnology, the Shanghai

According to the policy plan, the Chinese government is committed to continuously improve innovative capability, develop advanced technology and finally attain industrial applications relevant to China’s present status with a focus on national long-term development. With this plan the Chinese government also made clear that it will insist on its set principle that it will support what is beneficial to China, i.e. catching up with international development in general, while finding breakthroughs

Industrialisation Base of Nanotechnology, the National Industrialisation Base of Nanotechnology in Tianjing, the National Industrialisation Base of Biological, the Shenyang Industry Park of Nanotechnology and Medical Nanomaterials in Sichuan, etc. (Gu, Schulte, 2005).

that can solve key problems in China (Gu, Schulte, 2005)5

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

A national nanotechnology engineering research centre to speed up innovative research in nanotech application areas and its industrialisation thereafter.

Phillip Shapira, a professor in the School of Public Policy at the Georgia Institute of Technology has said “Despite ten years of emphasis by governments on national nanotechnology initiatives, we find that patterns of nanotechnology research collaboration and funding transcend country boundaries. For example, ”we found that US and Chinese researchers have developed a relatively high level of collaboration in nanotechnology research. Each country is the other’s leading collaborator in nanotechnology R&D.” (Quoted in Georgia Institute of Technology Research News 09 December 2010). This is not surprising since 700 Institute level agreements and about 70 cooperation agreements, spanning over 60 countries, have been signed by The Chinese Academy of Science (CAS). These encompass multi-lateral and bilateral seminars, workshops, joint ventures, young scientist groups, joint investigations, training courses, etc. Thus it can be seen that China is not shying away from acquiring fundamental research benefits through collaborations, it clearly realises that today’s R&D involves tremendous monetary and material resources and there is no gain in reinventing the wheel. It has protected its own research through strict IPR and prefers those who invest in China and research in fields required by the Chinese National development plan.

Contribution to defence efficiency As the nanotechnology programme is based upon the overarching military strategy in respect of nanotechnology; it requires that it enhances defence capabilities and efficiency by developing military specific nanomaterials, nano aircraft, nano engine technologies, nanosensors and nanosatellites etc. Nanotechnology has enabled significant improvements in triggering devices of strategic weapons by ruggedising, fusing, arming and exploding mechanisms. Further on another front, there has been a quest to develop very low yield nuclear explosives which could be used as controlled micro explosions source for nuclear bombs as well as weapons if compact fusing mechanisms were available. This got a further impetus when it was found that it was more practicable to design a micro-fusion explosive then a micro-fission device. (Micro-fusion results in much less radioactive fallout then an equivalent fission explosive!). This research forms the main thrust areas at nuclear weapons laboratories like US National Ignition Facility (NIF) and the French Laser Mega Joule Laboratory. There are speculations about China’s Nanoweapons programme but nothing concrete has been cited as yet, it is a question of time before these dual use technologies fructify into tactical Nuclear weapons in the 10 to 100 KT TNT range, which is below the NPT levels and also highly efficient fourth generation strategic Nuclear weapons.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

CHINA’s WATER HEGEMONY?

Claude Arpi The writer is a senior journalist and author of repute. He specialises in geopolitics and Indo-EU (Indo-French) relations.

Wang Guangqian, a scholar of the Chinese Academy of Sciences saying: “Chinese experts have raised a new proposal to divert water from the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra river to the country’s north-western province of Xinjiang. The water diversion route in the proposal, named the ‘Grand Western Canal’, is slightly different from the ‘Western Canal’ mentioned in China’s well-known South-North Water Diversion Project 1 [1]”

Most of Asia’s waters originate on the Tibetan plateau, the main watershed in Asia. Tibet’s waters flow down to eleven countries and are said to bring fresh water to over 85 per cent of Asia’s population and approximately 50 per cent of the world’s population. Four of the world’s ten major rivers, the Brahmaputra (or Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet), the Yangtze, the Mekong and the Huang Ho (or Yellow River) have their headwaters on the Tibetan Plateau. Other major rivers such as the Salween, the Irrawaddi, the Arun, the Karnali, the Satluj and the Indus, also have their source in Tibet. It would be in the interests of India to have a ‘genuinely’ autonomous Tibet on her northern borders. It could certainly facilitate a water agreement. China’s water hegemonism could otherwise spark off devastating water wars. Are we prepared for such water wars?

he Indian press recently reported that the Brahmaputra river had dried up in Arunachal Pradesh. The information sent waves of fear across the north-east. The press affirmed that the Siang, known as Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet and Brahmaputra in Assam, had almost disappeared in Pasighat in East Siang district. Tako Dabi, a political advisor to Chief Minister NabamTuki and state government spokesperson declared: “People found that the water level of the river receded so much this evening that it almost dried.” Dabi said: “China could have diverted the water of the river or there could be some artificial blockade due to which this has happened”, adding: “The panic of the people cannot be simply brushed off”. The information was later denied by both the Government of India and China. Of course, a diversion could not be done in one day without the knowledge of the Indian security agencies, but the fact remains that water has become an extremely sensitive issue which could inflame not only a region, but spoil the relations between two neighbouring countries, in this case, India and China.

China, the great economic power Let us examine the present situation. China is doing extremely well economically; it is today the second major economic power of the planet after the United States. But to maintain a tempo close to a double-digit growth, the Communist regime in Beijing has become an ogre devouring energy worldwide. Most of the raw materials (such

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

The Waters of Tibet

as oil, gas, wood, minerals, etc.) necessary to feed the economic engine can be bought from outside China, except for one: water.

If a river-water Treaty could be signed between India and Pakistan in the early sixties, why cannot a similar agreement be made between China, India and Bangladesh, in order to assure a decent life for all in the region? Water is therefore critical to the survival of the Chinese model for two reasons: first, the energy generated by hydropower plants is badly needed for its economy. China’s theoretical hydro-power resources have been estimated at 384 gigawatts. Most of this potential comes from the Tibetan plateau (the purported dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo / Brahmaputra itself has a potential of 38 gigawatts). The second reason: the leaders in Beijing need to feed more than 1.3 billion people. In the 1980’s, the American agronomist Lester Brown wrote a book, Who Will Feed China in which he studied the cases of Japan, Korea and Taiwan and warned that China will be unable to feed its own people. A real nightmare for the leaders in Beijing!

A water war? Wanting to ring the alarm bell for the impending water crisis, Ismail Serageldin, Director of Alexandria Library (then Senior Vice President of the World Bank) declared in 1995: “Many of the wars this century were about oil, but those of the next century will be over water.”

One could easily prophesise that if a water war is to happen in the future, it will be between China and one of its neighbours.

It would be in the interests of India to have a ‘genuinely’ autonomous Tibet on her northern borders. It could certainly facilitate a water agreement

It is easy to understand why: most of Asia’s waters originate on the Tibetan plateau, the main watershed in Asia. Tibet’s waters flow down to eleven countries and are said to bring fresh water to over 85 per cent of Asia’s population and approximately 50 per cent of the world’s population. Four

the

world’s

ten

major rivers, the Brahmaputra (or Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet), the Yangtze, the Mekong and the Huang Ho (or Yellow River) have their headwaters on the Tibetan Plateau. Other major rivers such as the Salween, the Irrawaddi, the Arun, the Karnali, the Satluj and the Indus, also have their source in Tibet. One recalls what George Ginsburg said in his book Communist China and Tibet:

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

CHINA’s WATER HEGEMONY?

“He who holds Tibet dominates the Himalayan piedmont; he who dominates the Himalayan piedmont, threatens the Indian subcontinent; and he who threatens the Indian subcontinent may well have all of South-east Asia within his reach and all of Asia.” Did Mao realise that water will become such an acute issue when the PLA marched into Tibet some 60 years ago? Probably not!

Would China decide to divert the waters from the Brahmaputra or even only dam it at several places; it would have serious strategic and environmental consequences with the potential to trigger a new conflict.

The purported mega-damming project When the Tsangpo reaches its easternmost point in Tibet, it takes a sharp U turn known as the Great Bend. In recent decades, it has been found that the Yarlung Tsangpo Gorge forms the longest and deepest canyon in the world.

On the political side, our posture towards China must be carefully nuanced and constantly calibrated in response to changing global and regional developments. China’s threat perception vis-à-vis India has both a local and a global dimension. The local dimension involves Tibet. Our Tibet policy needs to be reassessed and readjusted

Near Mt. Namcha Barwa, the Tsangpo Gorge is eight times as steep and three times as large as the Grand Canyon in Colorado, USA.

Two of the most serious problems faced by China today are food and water. Both issues are closely interlinked and, if not solved, are bound to have grave social and political consequences for the country as well as the neighbours downstream.

For the Chinese leaders, it is enough to know that the Tsangpo river tumbles down over 3,000 metres in less than 200 km. This gives the gorge one of the greatest hydro-power potentials available in the world. It makes the emperors of China dream.

The three diversions To solve its water problems, Beijing has devised one of the most gigantic projects in the world: to divert waters from the South to the North through three ‘diversions’, the Eastern, the Central and the Western. While the Eastern and Central sections of the project are under way, the Western section is still at the planning stage, but it is where India and South Asia come into the picture. The Western route would draw water from the Tibetan plateau via the upper reaches of the Yellow River to quench the deserts of north-west China. The Yarlung Tsangpo or Brahmaputra, as it is known in India, has an immense bearing on the lives of hundreds of millions in the sub-continent. One of its interesting characteristics is the sharp U turn it takes at the proximity of Mt. Namcha Barwa (7,782 metres)

near the Indian border. It enters India in Upper Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh, a territory today claimed by China making any project on upper reaches of the Tsangpo even more vital for India.

In the early 1980’s, it was assumed that China planned one of the most important components of the ‘western route’ diversion scheme at the Great Bend. This pharaonic project was mind-blowing. The Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze river rising an 18,200 megawatts capacity would be dwarfed by a hydroelectric plant at the Great Bend of Yarlung Tsangpo with a planned capacity of 38,000 megawatts.

Water is critical to the survival of the Chinese model for two reasons: first, the energy generated by hydro-power plants is badly needed for its economy. China's theoretical hydro-power resources have been estimated at 384 gigawatts. Most of this potential comes from the Tibetan plateau (the purported dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo / Brahmaputra itself has a potential of 38 gigawatts) In the recent years, the Chinese have been more discreet on the project, though one of the roadblocks was removed the day Premier Wen Jiabao arrived in India in December 2010: a last tunnel for linking Metok County (a few kilometres north of the McMahon Line) to the rest of Tibet was opened, eventually paving the way for a mega-project. The mega-dam has so far been denied by Beijing, but damming on a smaller scale is going on.

The diversion scheme The second project is the diversion of the Brahmaputra waters towards China. Some ten years ago, a Chinese engineer Li Ling and Gao Kai, a retired PLA General seriously worked on the diversion scheme. Li Ling then published a book called Tibet’s Waters will Save China in which the Chinese engineer detailed the diversion scheme, also known as Shuomatan Canal (from suma Tan in Central Tibet to Tanjing in China). Several ‘experts’ denounced the detailed plans of Li Ling and Gao Kai and in November 2006, when President Hu Jintao visited India, Water Resources Minister Wang Shucheng, a hydraulic engineer himself, affirmed that the proposal was “unnecessary, unfeasible and unscientific. There is no need for such dramatic and unscientific projects.” However, rumours have continued to circulate.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

The new plans In June 2011, the website 2point6billion.com quoted Wang Guangqian, a scholar of the Chinese Academy of Sciences saying: “Chinese experts have raised a new proposal to divert water from the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra river to the country’s north-western province of Xinjiang. The water diversion route in the proposal, named the ‘Grand Western Canal’, is slightly different from the ‘Western Canal’ mentioned in China’s well-known South-North Water Diversion Project.”

Dams, whether in India, Pakistan or Tibet, mean big business and the large Chinese corporations will continue to lobby hard to get the projects through. The second crucial factor is the cost-benefit perspective. The Chinese leadership is very down-to-earth, rational; they will choose the easier, cheaper option. The third factor: can China afford a conflict with India. The next leadership which will take over in November will have to answer this question.

One recalls what George Ginsburg said in his book Communist China and Tibet: “ He who holds Tibet dominates the Himalayan piedmont; he who dominates the Himalayan piedmont, threatens the Indian subcontinent; and he who threatens the Indian subcontinent may well have all of South-east Asia within his reach and all of Asia ”

To solve its water problems, Beijing has devised one of the most gigantic projects in the world: to divert waters from the South to the North through three ‘diversions’, the Eastern, the Central and the Western

The project would begin from a place south of Lhasa, the Tibetan capital.

A recent report, Non-Alignment 2.0: a Foreign and Strategic policy for India in the 21st century, prepared by a group of eminent Indian strategic thinkers failed to mention the water issue as the most serious threat to India’s security.

Prof Wang Guangqian of the Chinese Academy of Sciences seems to say that China has no choice but to go for it when he speaks of the newly proposed route: “Brahmaputra waters are expected to be rerouted to Xinjiang along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway and the Hexi Corridor – part of the Northern Silk Road located in Gansu Province”. His plans also were denied by the Chinese government.

A new Fukushima? To understand the danger of these mega projects, it is necessary to go back to an event in 1950. In the evening of August 15, a terrible earthquake shook Eastern Tibet. This was no ordinary earthquake. Nehru visited the Indian side of the border in September and made a long vivid description of the damages and sufferings of the people. On his return from Assam, he made a broadcast to the nation on All India Radio: “rivers were blocked up for a while and when they broke through, they came down with a rush and a roar, a high wall of water sweeping down and flooding large areas and washing away villages and fields and gardens.” This was a month after the earthquake and a few hundred kilometres south of the epicentre. One can imagine what happened in Tibet; this broadcast also gives an idea of what could happen on a much larger scale, if the hydro-power projects are carried out.

Three important factors Three important factors have to be understood. One, hydro-power lobbies have a financial interest in ‘concretising’ the project as soon as possible.

The strategic aspect

When the strategists write: “China will, for the foreseeable future, remain a significant foreign policy and security challenge for India. It is the one major power which impinges directly on India’s geopolitical space”, let us hope that they kept in mind this asymmetric constant ‘water’ menace. It could certainly have more serious implications than a local border skirmish. While admitting that their prevision “takes into account both the superiority of current Chinese deployments and posture on the land boundary and the unlikelihood of the border issue being resolved in the near future”, the use of water as a weapon is not mentioned, though it is likely to be used in case of conflict or serious tensions. The Report rightly says “on the political side, our posture towards China must be carefully nuanced and constantly calibrated in response to changing global and regional developments. China’s threat perception vis-à-vis India has both a local and a global dimension. The local dimension involves Tibet. Our Tibet policy needs to be reassessed and readjusted.” ‘Readjustment’ means a greater autonomy for the Tibetan plateau.

The solution It would be in the interest of India to have a ‘genuinely’ autonomous Tibet on her northern borders. It could certainly facilitate a water agreement. The only solution seems to lie in bringing the matter to the negotiating table. If a river-water Treaty could be signed between India and Pakistan in the early sixties, why cannot a similar agreement be made between China, India and Bangladesh, in order to assure a decent life for all in the region?

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Tibet

STRATEGIC IMPACT

Lt Gen O P Kaushik (retd) The writer has been General Officer Commanding in the Kashmir valley. He was chief of staff of Eastern Command and is the former Vice Chancellor of Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak, India.

However the Tibet card must not be forgotten and we need to accelerate efforts and also join efforts by others to regain the lost independence of Tibet. It is the longest and most powerful resistance movement in modern world history. The capacity and capability of Tibetan mass uprising must be aided and abetted not to forget Uyghur secessionists in Xinjiang who are getting identified as China’s Kashmir

An historical overview of the strategic impact of China’s uncontested occupation of Tibet. India had only some 75 policemen on the Indo-Tibet border at the time of independence. Today it has to post some 1,50,000 men to guard its frontiers with China. The Chinese today control the water tower of Asia and hence the flow of four major rivers that flow into India and other South Asian countries. Spread over an area of 25 lac sq km, Tibet is 26.4 per cent of total area of China. 62 lac Tibetans inhabit this plateau at an average height of 13,500 feet from the sea level. After the Chinese occupation in 1951, approximately 75 lac Chinese from the mainland China have been settled which has turned the population ratio to four Tibetans and five Chinese.

o other event in history has caused so much strategic, political and economic impact on South Asia as the occupation of Tibet by China. It brought in revolutionary changes in strategic and defence situation of South Asia. It had more serious influences on India. Historically our northern boundary was recognised and known as Indo-Tibetan Border: Chinese occupation of Tibet changed it to Indo-China Border. Although this alteration of boundary status affected Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar; China, however, adopted a friendly attitude towards them from the beginning and almost a hostile behaviour towards India thereby creating serious and special strategic, diplomatic and economic challenges for India which continue to grow more complicated as time passes. For instance, China has resolved its boundaries with all other South Asian countries; with India, not only it remains unresolved, the two countries fought a war on boundary disputes in 1962 and since then tensions between them have been growing. China today poses threats to Indian Security not only from the Indo-Tibetan frontiers but also from the West in the Arabian Sea, via Pakistan with whom she developed special relations, acquired a naval base at Gwadar on the Baluchistan coast and connected it by a four lane highway with Tibet, popularly called the Karakoram highway. In the North, China has connected Kathmandu with Lhasa by a four lane highway and thus via Nepal China poses threats to India’s Uttaranchal, UP, Bihar and West Bangal. In the North-east, having gained a naval base from Myanmar at Huingai near Yangon, she is in the process of connecting it with her Yunan province in the East by a four lane highway, thereby threatening our economic and naval interests in the Bay of Bengal. All this has become possible because of China’s occupation

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CHINA BRIDGEHEAD IN TIBET-

TARGETS IN INDIA

of Tibet and the boundary becoming a Sino–India Border. Spread over an area of 25 lac sq km, Tibet is 26.4 per cent of total area of China. 62 lac Tibetans inhabit this plateau at an average height of 13,500 feet from the sea level. After the Chinese occupation in 1951, approximately 75 lac Chinese from the mainland China have been settled which has turned the population ratio to four Tibetans and five Chinese. It is a source of seven major rives of the world which provide water to nearly 45 per cent of the world population, besides being a depository of many strategic minerals. It was an independent sovereign country for nearly 2000 year and till September 1949 when communist China attacked Eastern Tibet without any provocation and warning and finally occupied entire Tibet on 9 September 1951. Dalai Lama, the fourteenth spiritual and political head of Tibet, was forced to abandon Lhasa, the Capital of Tibet, on 17 March 1959 and seek asylum in India. Dalai Lama’s departure from Tibet resulted in massive turmoil in Tibet – almost a war between the Tibetans and the Chinese Army which lasted for two years as a result of which 87,000 Tibet citizens lost their lives and many thousands were compelled to leave Tibet and seek shelter as refugees in many countries of the world. India alone had to provide protection to over 85,000 Tibetans as also a place at Dharamshala in Himachal Pradesh for Dalai Lama to establish a Tibetan Government in exile. This provided an excuse to China to attack India in October 1962 and occupy nearly 40,000 sq km of Indian territory. It also resulted in converting 3,520 km long Indo-Tiban border into India China border and brought China, first time in history, as India’s neighbour.

Tibet, from the very beginning had been a buffer state between the three powerful states of Asia, namely; India, China and Soviet Russia. Long international border between India and Tibet before China occupied Tibet, was known as the most peaceful border of the world. Till 1949, India had deployed only 75 policemen for guarding the southern part of Indo–Tibetan border. Today, India is compelled to spread

out approximately 1,50,000 Army soldiers on permanent basis to guard this border. In reality it was not the Himalayas that guarded India from the North: it was the existence of buffer state of Tibet. Indo–Tibetan border, after Chinese occupation, has become the most sensitive fortified border in Asia. Many crores of India’s development funds are being spent daily for the

defence of this border. Activities by the Chinese Army and preparation of defences along this border are ever on the increase thereby forcing India to divert large Chunks of money for defence preparedness against the ill designs of China. such a requirement was never felt when Tibet was independent. One estimate suggests that India spends approximately Rs 65 crore every day on defence related works.

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STRATEGIC IMPACT

In 1949, Mao Zedong, Chairman of China declared, “Tibet is the palm of China and Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and NEFA (Now Arunachal Pradesh) are its fingers. China is the only country in the world which never recognised Sikkim as part of India and, even today, it has accepted conditional control of India over it. She is openly daring to claim Arunachal Pradesh as part of China and has the gall to object to visits by India’s PM and the Defence Minister to this legitimate part of India, On 13 November 2006, the Chinese Ambassador in Delhi, during in interview with CNN–IBN, said, “We believe that what you call Arunachal Pradesh is wholly part of China, including Tawang which is part of this area. We claim our right on this entire area.”

China is aiming to settle two crore Chinese citizen in Tibet by 2015 and strengthen border defences on Indian and South Asian borders. India must get concerned that Lhasa railway line is to be extended upto Nagri in western Tibet which is very close to our boundary in Jammu and Kashmir. subsequently, the railway line will stretch out to South-eastern Tibet via Setang and Kangpo, running almost parallel to Northern and North eastern boundaries of India It is now universally known that China helped Pakistan in acquiring nuclear weapons and missiles. China has also developed Gwadar port on the Baluchistan coast and has connected it with Tibet through Karakoram highway. Gwadar is being prepared as a naval base where Chinese naval vessels along with Pakistan Navy will harbour. This development causes a direct threat to India’s West coast. In fact, China is equipping Pakistan militarily to counter India. Her occupation of Tibet enabled her to achieve this and Karakoram highway got developed as a link between Pakistan and Tibet. It is believed that Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) Of China is now engaged in developing military cantonments along this highway. There are also reports of missile sites being prepared which will cover all naval movements in the northern part of Arabian Sea. This will cause interference in India’s commercial sea lanes which traverse

through this part of Arabian sea. We have been analysing Chinese threats via Pakistan only in terms of nuclear and missile technology transfer to Pakistan as also gifting away large quantity of military hardware. There is an inherent greater danger lurking in Pakistan handing over the Gwadar port to China to be developed as a naval base for the Chinese Navy. Once fully developed, it will reduce Indian naval superiority in the Arabian Sea and combined Pak-China presence in these waters will threaten Indian coastal areas in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Kerala. China has been actively engaging for the last one decade in destroying market economy of India. Legal and illegal trade via Tibet of Chinese goods has adversely effected thousands of Indian Industries, specially those which were engaged in manufacturing toys and electronic goods. China is planning to destroy the industrial base of India by providing goods at a lesser price than the cost price of India. India had flourishing trade with North African countries in machinary goods. That also is facing severe competition from cheap products from China. All these goods, flooding Indian markets and abroad, are finding their routes from Tibet. Occupation of Tibet has become a convenient bridgehead for China assaulting markets in India and thus harming Indian economy. Himachal Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh suffered massive destruction on account of floods during the year 2000. Indian space research later confirmed that reason for these floods was excessive release of water by China from natural and artificial lakes in Tibet. Later, in the year 2004, Satluj river was in spate on account of cracks in Parichu lake which was artificially created by China. Floods in Satluj had caused large scale destruction in Himachal Pradesh. Four major rives of India namely, Satluj, Brahmaputra, Sindhu and Ghaggar have their origin in Tibet, China can exploit these rivers in causing huge damages in Indian states through which these rivers flow. Indiscriminate destruction of forest in Tibet by China as also uncontrolled extraction of minerals

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

have started causing destructive floods in Assam state of India and Bangladesh every year. China has not only completed Gormo-Lhasa Railway line, it has also further spread a network of roads in Tibet extending 58,000 km. Five new airfields have also been created where largest jet fighters and transport aircraft can land. These infrastructural developments have enabled China to deploy 35 divisions in Tibet against India which was restricted to only 6 divisions in 1962 and that too over a period of two years. These developments will enhance mobility of PLA forces, will enable Chinese Army to cover whole of Tibet and enable her to store and deploy nuclear weapons, missiles and aircraft with ease and readiness, China will be able to gain stronger grip over the tumultuous internal situation in Tibet and pose greater threats to Indian security. China is aiming to settle two crore Chinese citizen in Tibet by 2015 and strengthen border defences on Indian and South Asian borders. India must get concerned that Lhasa railway line is to be extended upto Nagri in western Tibet which is very close to our boundary in Jammu and Kashmir. subsequently, the railway line will stretch out to South-eastern Tibet via Setang and Kangpo, running almost parallel to Northern and North-eastern boundaries of India. India must pay immediate attention to these evolving activities and set in motion its defence preparedness on our northern borders. At present China has, in Tibet, 17 Secret Radar centres, 8 stations for ICBMS, 70 medium range and 20 short range missile sites. Some of these have a range upto 13,000 km and cover not only Asia and the Indian ocean littoral but also can target upto the USA and Canada. In any case, India, Nepal, Bhutan will be very easy targets from these missile sites in Tibet. These sites will also cover China’s naval activity in building new naval bases at Situa in Myanmar, Chittagong in Bangladesh, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, newly gained naval station in Mauritius and Gwadar in Pakistan. With the spread of rail road network, China will be able to accelerate her effort in settling Chinese population in Tibet. She is aiming to have 2 crore Chinese citizens in Tibet by 2015. In

that eventuality Tibet will become a permanent colony of China. Already Tibetans have been reduced to a minority with large scale infiltration of population from mainland China. Earlier, similar efforts by China had resulted in Manchuria, Xinjiang and Mongolia becoming Chinese colonies. Large scale transfer of Chinese population into Tibet is a big potential danger for Asia in general and India in particular.

Rivers affected under South-north water transfer project are Sindhu, Mekong, Yantse, Yellow, Salwin, Brahmaputra, Karnali and Satluj, These rivers are lifeline for the people of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal, Thailand, Cambodia, Pakistan, Laos and Vietnam where approximately 45 per cent of the world population is residing Uncontrolled industrialisation has caused pollution of all major rivers of China. She is also facing great shortage of water in her Northern parts. In order to meet this shortage, China has designed a big plan to divert river waters from South to the North. Rivers affected under South-north water transfer project are Sindhu, Mekong, Yantse, Yellow, Salwin, Brahmaputra, Karnali and Satluj, These rivers are lifeline for the people of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal, Thailand, Cambodia, Pakistan, Laos and Vietnam where approximately 45 per cent of the world population is residing, Diversion of above mentioned rivers' water from South to North will directly affect the life of people living downstream. Our satellite photographs, taken in 2010, have confirmed Chinese activity in diverting waters of Brahmaputra. Water diversion plans of China will cause grave consequences for India whose four rivers - Sindhu, Satluj, Brahmaputra and Ghaggar have their origin in Tibet. Defence experts have acknowledged efficacy of a new weapon – ‘Lake Bomb’ (Water Bomb). This term came in use in 2004 when China created serious floods in Himachal Pradesh of India by releasing uncontrolled excessive waters in river Satluj from an artificially created lake. It proves that natural forces can be converted for serious disasters.

China’s aim is not restricted to the occupation of southern slopes of Himalayas. It also extends to occupy five fingers as pronounced by Chairman Mao. In Ladakh China is illegally occupying 38,000 sq km of Indian territory and there are altercations between the PLA troops and the Indian soldiers on daily basis. With communist government in power in Nepal and open handed economic aid extended by China, Nepal is rapidly coming under the Chinese influence. Bhutan is also not in a happy situation. China has gradually infiltrated the entire administrative machinery in Bhutan and it is only a matter of time that they start demanding abrogation of special relationship with India. In Sikkim, there are irritants on territory and China has not yet accepted, unconditionally, Sikkim as part of India. They claim Arunachal Pradesh as their territory and they continue occupying three Indian territories in Arunachal Pradesh which they had grabbed during the 1962 war. It is, therefore, a volatile situation and can erupt at any time of Chinese choosing. Weak Nepal and Bhutan and unsettled borders with India coupled with gaps in India’s defence preparedness provide opportunities to an expansionist China. Seven states of India’s North-east still remain disturbed. China started aiding Naga insurgents in fifties and since then their interference in the North-east, in some form or the other, has continued. Insurgents in the North-east were using Myanmar and Pakistan to obtain weapons, equipment and training from China. With Chinese consolidation in Tibet and their spreading influence in Nepal will make it easy for them to obtain aid from China. Emerging new threats on account of Naxalites and Maoits, encompassing 272 districts of central India, are also inspired and abetted by China in Tibet and their proxies is Nepal. Occupation of Tibet has made it easy for China to interfere in the internal security situation of India. Indian options to cope with emerging China, who is determined to use Tibet as a springboard, are limited. China is much stronger: her economy is three times of India, Army twice as large, Air Force three

times larger, conventional submarines three times of India plus they have ten nuclear submarines. As against India’s Defence budget for 2012-13 amounting to 1,93,407 crore, China has earmarked 5,32,250 crore for the defence. Nevertheless, we have to build-up military capability to avoid repeat of 1962. We need to equip our armed forces with the best and not allow bureaucratic lethargy in military acquisitions. We need to speed up development of infrastructure along our borders. We should continue diplomatic dialogue to resolve border dispute with China. However the Tibet card must not be forgotten and we need to accelerate efforts and also join efforts by others to regain the lost independence of Tibet. It is the longest and most powerful resistance movement in modern world history. It was on 30 March 1959 that Dalai Lama (24 years old) crossed over to India. The capacity and capability of Tibetan mass uprising must be aided and abetted not to forget Uyghur secessionists in Xinjiang who are getting identified as China’s Kashmir. This will pay the Chinese back for their escalating support to the Maoists and North-east insurgents and their attempts to question the legality of India’s claims to Jammu and Kashmir. Internally we must develop a consistent political resolve and national consensus after a debate in Parliament. Immediate steps must be taken to improve political and administrative governance and accelerate police and intelligence arrangements in border areas. External interference in internal situation of India must be ruthlessly curbed. National security must be a prime consideration and not earning goodwill by adopting compromising and lethargic approach while dealing with foreign agents, infiltrators and the organisations which are covertly involved in aiding and assisting anti-national elements within the country. Power recognises and respects power is an old tenet. It is still valid today and more so while dealing with emerging and expansionist China. It will be suicidal for India to close her eyes about Chinese intentions. India ignored Chinese designs in Tibet in 1949 resulting in ever growing threat to our borders and if that mistake is repeated, history will not forgive the Indian leadership.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

UNDERMINING THE DALAI LAMA

Jayadeva Ranade The writer is a former Additional Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India and a security and intelligence expert. He is a seasoned China analyst with almost 30 years experience in the field. He has also dealt with matters relating to Terrorism and Pakistan. He has been directly involved in formulation of policy at the highest levels in the Government of India. He was conferred the Organisation’s two highest awards, both out of turn. He is presently a Distinguished Fellow with the Centre for Air Power Studies. He writes on strategic and security issues relating to China, Tibet and East Asia, his chosen fields of specialisation.

China perceives the present time as opportune to undermine the position and influence of the Dalai Lama and compel the 14th Dalai Lama’s successors to find new methods at accommodation. It has accordingly stepped up efforts to sow division in the Tibetan religious ecclesiastical hierarchy and divide the exiled Tibetan community. Invitations to the World Buddhist Forums, TAR anniversaries etc. are all calibrated to weaken the unity of Tibetan Buddhist monks. China’s moves are of considerable significance for India. They represent a currently incipient, but potentially serious source of concern since India’s Himalayan belt is inhabited mainly by Buddhists.

The Chinese NPC’s inauguration coincided with the immolation of the third Tibetan in three days in the Aba region of Sichuan province. China perceives the present time as opportune to undermine the position and influence of the Dalai Lama and compel the 14th Dalai Lama’s successors to find new methods at accommodation. It has accordingly stepped up efforts to sow division in the Tibetan religious ecclesiastical hierarchy and divide the exiled Tibetan community. Invitations to the World Buddhist Forums, TAR anniversaries etc. are all calibrated to weaken the unity of Tibetan Buddhist monks. China’s moves are of considerable significance for India. They represent a currently incipient, but potentially serious source of concern since India’s Himalayan belt is inhabited mainly by Buddhists.

he issue of Tibet was best symbolised recently by the kind of attention it received at China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) - China’s version of a parliament - and can be described as neijinwei song, or iron fist in a velvet glove! When the final 10-day session of China’s Eleventh National People’s Congress (NPC) opened in Beijing on March 5, 2012, the persistent restiveness in the Tibet and Xinjiang regions were pushed to the forefront. The NPC’s inauguration coincided with the immolation of the third Tibetan in three days in the Aba region of Sichuan province and outbreak of trouble in Kashgar where twelve Uyghur were killed. China’s official media omitted reporting these events. They did, however, figure during the panel discussions of NPC Deputies in subsequent days. The mode of protest, which seems to have struck a deep chord among Tibetans, meanwhile, is relentless. By the 17th March 2012, thirty young Tibetans, mainly aged under thirty and either monks or ex-monks, had immolated themselves. Beijing has, till now, not responded, except by strengthening armed police deployments in the disturbed areas and around key monasteries. On the strategic plane, though, Beijing is moving with deliberation and is engaging in a novel form of politics to secure the leadership of Buddhists worldwide. After officially acknowledging Buddhism a few years ago as a “peaceful” and “an ancient Chinese religion”, it is using Buddhism as an instrument for promoting primarily domestic ‘social harmony’. This additionally serves to showcase the communist authorities’ tolerance of Buddhism.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Beijing has expanded this outreach to include, the largely ‘Buddhist’, Asia and portray a tolerant image in the region. It seeks to use this as endorsement of the freedom of religious worship that it allows. To legitimise its role in the selection and approval of high-ranking Buddhist religious personages, effort has been made to get international acceptance for the Chinese-nominated Panchen Lama by having him attend both the World Buddhist Forums held so far and meeting the assembled foreign and Chinese religious personages. Earlier, the second World Buddhist Forum, which was staged three years ago and attended by over a thousand foreign and Chinese Buddhist monks and scholars, enlarged its ambit and held its concluding ceremonies in Taiwan, an entity which China is wooing to try and effect a ‘peaceful reunification’. The Third World Buddhist Forum, which is to be held from 25th April in the Hong Kong Special Autonomous Region (SAR), is an integral part of this politics and continues the trend initiated with Taiwan. It is anticipated that a large number of persons will attend, including Buddhist monks and scholars from India. Buddhists, incidentally, constitute a sizeable percentage of the populations of Taiwan and Hong Kong, both territories over which China claims sovereignty. The Forums are being convened in the backdrop of other efforts to allay the apprehensions of Tibetans in China. The celebrations of the 60th anniversary of the ‘peaceful liberation’ of Tibet by Chinese troops, which were held on July 18, 2011, instead of the date of the actual anniversary on May 23, provided an occasion for Beijing to push ahead its efforts to undermine the stature and influence of the Dalai Lama. They revealed the extent to which Beijing was successful in this effort. The celebrations

CHINA’S TIBET STRATEGY

coincided with the month-long ban on foreigners travelling to the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) imposed by the authorities till July 25, 2011. Publicity in China’s official media was low key for the event. The importance of Tibet and the ‘anniversary’ to Beijing were, however, signified by the arrival in Lhasa of China’s Vice President, Xi Jinping, on July 18, 2011, at the head of a 59-member delegation. The visit by Xi Jinping, who is most likely to succeed Hu Jintao as President of China at the 18th Party Congress scheduled for October 2012, also had symbolic value. His father, Xi Zhongxun, a contemporary of Mao Zedong and a veteran Party cadre, was reputed to be an individual with a somewhat liberal bent of mind. Xi Zhongxun, was an interlocutor for the Dalai Lama’s Special Envoy Lodi Gyari in the 1980s and apparently carried a photo of the Dalai Lama. Prior to that he had some association with the 10th Panchen Lama, Tibet’s second most important religious leader. While this is unlikely to influence Xi Jinping,

it could have some resonance with the Tibetans.

The delegation was high level and important. Its composition clearly reflected Beijing’s policy towards Tibet, which blends force with propaganda and economic incentives. The Chief of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Chen Bingde was, quite pointedly, part of the entourage as was General Wang Jianping, Commander of the People’s Armed Police Forces (PAPF). The delegation included Vice Premier Hui Liangyu; Vice Chairman and General Secretary of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC) Li Jianguo; Vice Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and Head of the United Front Work Department of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee Du Qinglin; Vice Chairman of the National Committee of the CPPCC Pagbalha Geleg Namgyai; and the Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the 10th NPC, Raidi. Zhang Qingli, who was then the TAR Party Secretary and favoured a hard line, accompanied Xi Jinping throughout his stay in Tibet.

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Tibet

Coinciding with the anniversary, China’s State Council announced in Beijing on July 20, 2011, that the central government will invest 138.4 billion yuan (US$ 21.38 billion) in TAR over the next five years to support 226 major construction projects involving a total investment of 330.5 billion yuan. The projects envisage construction of facilities for TAR’s public services and infrastructure such as railways, highways, airports and hydropower plants. During a visit to Tibet University on July 18, communist ideology was invoked with Xi Jinping and his delegation joining 850 other invitees in singing “Sing a Folk Song to the Party Again”. Later, speaking to over 20,000 people gathered in the square in front of the Potala Palace, former residence of the Dalai Lama, Xi Jinping asserted that “as long as we stick to the CCP’s leadership, the socialist system, the system of regional ethnic autonomy and a development path with Chinese and local Tibetan features, Tibet will enjoy greater prosperity and progress and embrace a brighter future,”. He emphasised that ‘social stability provides the basis for ‘leapfrog development and long-term peace’. Xi Jinping held an important meeting on July 20, with a carefully selected audience of more than 100 monks, as well as ‘representatives from religious circles’. He urged the audience to ‘stay clear’ of separatist forces. Calling Tibet an inalienable part of China since ancient times, Xi Jinping lauded members of ‘religious circles’ for helping to maintain social stability, national integrity and ethnic unity. He urged them to ‘fight against separatist activities by the Dalai Lama group, rely on cadres and people of all ethnic groups, seek long-term policies and take measures that address the root cause and completely destroy any attempt to undermine stability in Tibet and national unity.’ Underlining Tibet’s importance to China, Xi Jinping described Tibet ‘as an important security screen for the country’ and referred to it as ‘a major base of strategic resources reserves’. Interestingly, Xi Jinping appeared to take a cue from Hu Jintao and avoided using the pejorative term ‘Dalai clique’ while referring to the Dalai Lama and his supporters.

Tibet

UNDERMINING THE DALAI LAMA An interesting aspect of Xi Jinping’s visit to Tibet was his travel to the village of Bagyi in the Nyingchi prefecture in south-eastern Tibet across Arunachal Pradesh. The choice of Nyingchi is interesting. It is the site of an underground missile base and a recently built modern airport, the third in Tibet. China claims that Arunachal Pradesh - which it refers to as ‘southern Tibet’ since 2005 - is part of Nyingchi prefecture. Nyingchi is also the area where China has plans to construct a mega dam on the ‘Great Bend’ of the Brahmaputra river. Xi Jinping, who last visited Nyingchi thirteen years ago, urged local officials to maintain long-term social stability and appreciated the contributions of personnel of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the People’s Armed Police Force and the police forces in Nyingchi. Little publicised in the official Chinese media, but a move with potentially far reaching implications, were the invitations to select high ranking Tibetan monks residing abroad to attend these 60th ‘anniversary’ celebrations. The list was meticulously crafted to accentuate divisions within the exiled Tibetan community and isolate the Dalai Lama. It dovetailed neatly into other efforts initiated by Beijing to win over Tibetan Buddhist monks, including the apparent shedding of its earlier aversion to non-formal contacts with prominent Tibetans and Tibetan entities. In a major embarrassment to the Dalai Lama, the Paris-based Khensur Lungri Namgyel Rinpoche, the 101st and former Ganden Tripa and former head of the Gelugpa sect to which the Dalai Lama belongs, visited China in the first week of July specifically to meet the Chinese-nominated Panchen Lama, Gyancain Norbu. He did not, however, attend the 60th anniversary celebrations. The former Ganden Tripa would have been invited to bestow some legitimacy on the Chinese appointee, who is not recognised by the Dalai Lama. As if to emphasise his differences with the Dalai Lama, the former Ganden Tripa took along Yongyal Rimpoche and Lama Thubten Phurbu, two outspoken US-based Shugden worshipping monks. Two living Buddhas, Kondhor Jewon Tulku and Khanang Jam-yang Ten-pen-yima,

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FORTIFICATION

who currently live in Switzerland met officials from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s United Front Work Department. Their visit coincided with a conclave of Shugden Deity worshippers held in Chengdu, capital of Sichuan Province, in July 2011. The former Ganden Tripa worships the Shugden Diety, which has been prohibited by the Dalai Lama, but which group has been overtly backed by the Chinese authorities since 2007. Deepening the schism, the Chinese-appointed Panchen Lama also worships the Shugden Deity. A variety of other high ranking monks resident abroad travelled to China for the 60th anniversary celebrations of the ‘peaceful liberation’ of Tibet. Among them were Gangchen Lama, a well-known critic of the Dalai Lama and worshipper of the Shugden Deity; Akong Tulku, who retains close links with the Chinese authorities; a representative from the UK, Karma Hardy, who till recently used to head the Tibet Foundation, UK as well as representatives of other traditions like Jamyang of Sweden of the Kargyu Drikung tradition and Thinlay Rinchen, an Australiabased high ranking monk of the Sakya tradition. Kondor Tulku Jigme Palden, possibly of the Taklung Kagyu tradition and Tsultrim Taser were two high ranking monks visiting from Switzerland. Of them, Kondor Tulku Jigme Palden was conferred an honour by the Chinese. China perceives the present time as opportune to undermine the position and influence of the Dalai Lama and compel the 14th Dalai Lama’s successors to find new methods at accommodation. It has accordingly stepped up efforts to sow division in the Tibetan religious ecclesiastical hierarchy and divide the exiled Tibetan community. Invitations to the World Buddhist Forums, TAR anniversaries etc. are all calibrated to weaken the unity of Tibetan Buddhist monks. China’s moves are of considerable significance for India. They represent a currently incipient, but potentially serious source of concern since India’s Himalayan belt is inhabited mainly by Buddhists.

Dr Monika Chansoria The writer is a Visiting Senior Fellow at the Slavic Research Centre, Hokkaido University, Japan.

China’s Infrastructure Build-up in Tibet The Chinese military recognises the importance of build-up of logistics on the battlefield and is taking steps to maximise its logistics capabilities. The PLA logistics doctrine in 2000 still depended heavily on the “people’s war” concept and not particularly on military assets. The General Logistics Department (GLD) and the PLA gradually began linking civilian and military logistics to provide what former Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, called “precision logistics.” China’s massive infrastructure build-up in Tibet is being taken cognizance of in India. In November 2011, a year after conducting its first live military exercise in Tibet, China for the first time rehearsed capture of mountain passes at heights beyond 5,000 metres with the help of armoured vehicles and airborne troops.

In the wake of the ethnic violence in Tibet in 2008, increased force levels of the paramilitary People’s Armed Police, Chinese Frontier Guards and the Garrison Duty Forces have been stationed in the region. Furthermore, the recent series of self-immolation by dozens of Tibetan youth has heightened tensions resulting in the steep rise of armed Chinese paramilitary presence in the Tibetan Autonomous Region and the Aba Prefecture in the heavily Tibetan-populated region of Sichuan

t was during the decade of the 1950s that China coined what has become the present standard designation of Tibet, Zhongguo de yibufen (one part of China). The description was precise enough for the political purpose at hand, that of affirming Tibet as firmly within the People’s Republic of China. Following establishment of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) in September 1965, with an area of 1.23 million sq miles as against 2.5 million sq miles of Greater Tibet, large parts were merged with Qinghai, Gansu and Sichuan provinces of China. China foresees maintaining effective control of the Tibet Autonomous Region as critical for enhancing its security on the western frontier given that Tibet comprises approximately one-fourth of China’s land mass.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

FORTIFICATION

The General Logistics Department (GLD) and the PLA gradually began linking civilian and military logistics to provide what former Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, called “precision logistics.” According to the US Department of Defence, the PLA is purchasing heavy lift assets from Russia to move their Heavy Brigade Combat Teams (HBCTs) to outlying provinces The Hu Jintao Administration has significantly tightened its policy over Tibet in an apparent attempt to ensure the proverbial Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) “long reign and perennial stability” in the restive region. More hard line cadres are being appointed to run the TAR. While unprecedented aid has been pledged for the estimated 6.5 million Tibetans living in the TAR as well as the neighbouring provinces of Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai, the bulk of the new infrastructure projects also serve to speed up Han Chinese migration. The tough stance adopted by the Party and state apparatus towards the ethnic minorities was approved at the January 2010 Politburo meeting that was devoted exclusively to the Tibetan issue. President Hu Jintao, who was Party Secretary of Tibet from 1988 to 1992, heralded two goals for the TAR in the coming decade during the course of deliberations at the meeting; seeking a breakthrough-style (economic) development; and maintaining long-term stability. Under President Hu’s dictum of “going down the road of development with Chinese characteristics and Tibetan flavour” (Zhongguotese, xizangtedian), additional input has been focused on areas including infrastructure, tourism, mining and manufacturing. In its latest 2010 White Paper on National Defence released in March 2011, the Chinese government has categorically stated that “separatist forces and its activities are still the biggest obstacle and threat … working for Tibet independence have inflicted serious damage on national security and social stability.” This in turn, draws a correlation, that of viewing the Tibetan issue in the larger context of

Chinese national integration. In the wake of the ethnic violence in Tibet in 2008, increased force levels of the paramilitary People’s Armed Police, Chinese Frontier Guards and the Garrison Duty Forces have been stationed in the region. Furthermore, the recent series of self-immolation by dozens of Tibetan youth has heightened tensions resulting in the steep rise of armed Chinese paramilitary presence in the Tibetan Autonomous Region and the Aba Prefecture in the heavily Tibetan-populated region of Sichuan. The CCP has accorded highest priority to internal security by reinforcing efforts towards strengthening the internal public security apparatus. The approach taken by China to “engineer internal peace” at the cost of employing brutal use of force, may potentially manifest in the form of discontented factions emerging on the national, regional and local political scene. China’s security agencies are currently engaged in a noxious, intense and prolonged crackdown against popular unrest and political discontent prevalent in Tibet and Xinjiang, responding with a massive display of state force. China has reiterated that its concepts of warfare and capability upgradation go well beyond meeting challenges in the form of Taiwan, Tibet and East Turkestan thus, explicitly implying that China’s military capabilities shall continue to grow unabated, even as the Taiwan issue thaws; and that the Chinese national security strategy is set to be focused to look beyond Taiwan. As the PRC prepares to become capable of winning in the era of high-technology warfare, greater focus is now being placed upon logistics development. There is a broad understanding that the logistics system needs to cope with the challenges thrown up by China’s accelerating transformation into a market economy. Logistics development has progressed upwards in China’s military hierarchy, particularly since the PLA began in the early 1990s, to focus its attention on how to fight limited wars under high-technology conditions. Logistical support is at the heart of this new operational

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

doctrine, especially the need for rapid mobility, intensive supply of materials and forward technical support. Consequently, logistics modernisation has become a high priority in the PLA’s quest to build a 21st century fighting force. While emphasising logistics reform, the 2010 Defence White Paper focuses on enhancing logistical support capabilities for diversified military tasks. In fact, the PLA is working on a multilateral approach towards building a modern logistics system by speeding up the process of integrating systems, outsourcing services, informationising processes and managing its logistical support systems more scientifically. The White Paper also accepts completion of the PLA’s three-year plan for integrated improvement of grass-root logistics systems for border and coastal defence units. In the given context, China’s massive infrastructure build-up in Tibet is being taken cognizance of in India with Defence Minister, A K Antony giving a statement in the parliament recently on the rapid development of rail, road, airfield and telecom infrastructure and military camps being undertaken by the Chinese authorities in Tibet. Antony acknowledged that a road network stretching across 58,000 kms coupled with five operational airfields at Gongar, Pangta, Linchi, Hoping and Gar Gunsa have come up in Tibet. Besides, extension of the Qinghai Tibet Railway (QTR) line to Xigaze and another line from Kashgar to Hotan in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region is fast reaching completion.

In November 2011, a year after conducting its first live military exercise in Tibet, China for the first time rehearsed capture of mountain passes at heights beyond 5,000 metres with the help of armoured vehicles and airborne troops Along with the rapid development of the lateral road network in Tibet and a large number of axial roads leading to passes bordering India, the roads are being constructed to military specifications in order to be turned over to the PLA in the event of war or an internal disorder. The logistics

build-up opposite India’s eastern theatre is a cause for concern since it augments the PLA’s ability to deploy rapidly from the mainland.

PLA is reportedly constructing Hyperbaric Chambers to facilitate the rapid acclimatisation of troops brought in from lower altitudes. It is also building the first batch of oxygen-enriched barracks using plants for troops in the TAR at the Nagchu Military sub-Command at an altitude of 4,500 metres Construction of new airfields and the upgradation of advanced landing grounds (ALGs) and helipads in and around the TAR, coupled with the acquisition of new transport aircraft, will enhance China’s strategic airlift capability resulting in faster induction and concentration of field formations in comparatively shorter time frames and, consequently, over shorter warning periods. The construction of airfields and ALGs closer to Indian borders boosts the PLA Air Force fighter aircrafts’ striking range and provides it the ability to strike and engage targets in India on a broad front and in depth. The fibre optic communication network is fast spreading as well, with fifty-eight Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) satellite stations are reported to have been installed in the TAR. All PLAAF units and subunits in the TAR have been connected by satellite communication. China is reported to have laid a fibre optic network in all the 55 counties, which includes Ali and the border area of Chamdo. Another major development has been the interconnecting of Chengdu and Lanzhou MRs with one another and both these MRs to Beijing, through secure communications, ensuring secure and real-time communication. All Military supply Depots (MSDs) are connected to Lhasa by radio and fibre optic cable. The upgrading of the communication networks through fibre optic cables and satellite communication indicates real-time connectivity achieved by the PLA - a quantum jump in communication technology. The enhanced communication security will continue to tilt the balance in cyber warfare in favour of the PLA. Complexities of the Tibetan terrain,

vagaries of climate and sustenance capacities of the thrust lines chosen, are all factors that influence the depth of operations that are planned to be undertaken. To address this aspect, the PLA is reportedly constructing Hyperbaric Chambers to facilitate the rapid acclimatisation of troops brought in from lower altitudes. It is also building the first batch of oxygen-enriched barracks using plants for troops in the TAR at the Nagchu Military sub-Command at an altitude of 4,500 metres.

A road network stretching across 58,000 kms coupled with five operational airfields at Gongar, Pangta, Linchi, Hoping and Gar Gunsa have come up in Tibet. Besides, extension of the Qinghai Tibet Railway (QTR) line to Xigaze and another line from Kashgar to Hotan in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region is fast reaching completion In November 2011, a year after conducting its first live military exercise in Tibet, China for the first time rehearsed capture of mountain passes at heights beyond 5,000 metres with the help of armoured vehicles and airborne troops. The Chinese Ministry of Defence made this claim in an official report which described the exercise as a challenge since it was being conducted on a plateau with an elevation of more than 4,500 metres. The exercise was depicted as the “first joint actual-troop drill of the PLA air and ground troops under information-based conditions in frigid area with a high altitude.” The joint drill involved the Chinese Air Force, ground troops, armoured columns and a range of support entities. Providing rare details while describing the exercise, the report said, “At the very beginning … the new type warplanes of the PLA Air Force conducted accurate strikes at the targets … Shortly after seizing the commanding point, the long-range guns launched full-scale shooting at the command post and the artillery position of the enemy.” This was followed by the armoured vehicle group and infantry combat vehicles branching out into columns and launching a “sudden and violent attack on the mountain passes occupied by the enemy. The special operation detachment outflanked

the enemy and raided the enemy’s command post”. The report also stated that army aviation troops and antiaircraft missiles provided cover. The Chinese military recognises the importance of build-up of logistics on the battlefield and is taking steps to maximise its logistics capabilities. It was not until 2002, when Hu Jintao, then Vice President of the PRC, issued an order to transform PLA logistics, that rapid renovation actually began. The PLA logistics doctrine in 2000 still depended heavily on the “people’s war” concept and not particularly on military assets. A portion of this doctrine stipulated that an individual must carry his own support and sustainment packages while fighting the enemy on the front lines. The General Logistics Department (GLD) and the PLA gradually began linking civilian and military logistics to provide what former Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, called “precision logistics.” According to the US Department of Defence, the PLA is purchasing heavy lift assets from Russia to move their Heavy Brigade Combat Teams (HBCTs) to outlying provinces, including Fuzhou. The significance of Fuzhou province lies in the fact that it is the gateway to Taiwan and if Taiwan decides to declare independence from the PRC, the PLA is likely to use Fuzhou as a platform to launch an offensive against Taiwan. Nevertheless, the PLA units still lack high-mobility transportation assets, modular equipment and automated tracking systems and have still not developed logistics packages that can support the HBCT concept. The PLA’s current modernisation campaign will enable it to support future offensive operations outside of its mainland, given that the PLA’s precision logistics is modernising rapidly. China is rapidly upgrading infrastructure and logistics system in Tibet to enhance the ability of the People’s Liberation Army to become a more mobile and better-equipped fighting force that can be deployed faster and sustained over a longer period of time. The concentrated expansion of infrastructure in Tibet has improved the PLA’s capability to rapidly induct integrated forces in order to meet any external or internal discord.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

contumacious

Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (retd) The writer is Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi. The views expressed in this article are personal.

China’s often stated official position is that the reunification of Chinese territories is a sacred duty. In the last Party Congress of Communist Party of China (CPC), four resolutions mention the unification of China’s lost territories. More new projects have been sanctioned by Central Military Commission after the Party Congress for an enhanced military build-up in case of any hostility. China has already amassed a large number of troops in Tibet and constructed the metalled Western Express Highway as well as the world’s highest railway line which will enable faster mobilisation of troops from Gansu and Qinghai region in case of war. The PLA has constructed two major missile bases in Tibet and deployed missiles that can reach major targets in India

There is no end in sight to the intractable border dispute between India and China. China’s negotiating strategy is to resolve the dispute when the Chinese are in a much stronger position in terms of comprehensive national strength so that they can dictate terms. China is in physical possession of approximately 38,000 sq km of Indian territory. And claims 96,000 sq km in Arunachal Pradesh. In addition, Pakistan illegally ceded 5,180 sq km of Indian territory in the Shaksgam Valley of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, north-west of the Siachen Glacier, to China in 1963. The Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and Tibet, implying de facto control after the 1962 war, is yet to be physically demarcated on the ground and delineated on military maps.

utual economic dependence between India and China is growing rapidly every year. Bilateral trade is expected to cross US$ 65 billion during this financial year. However, despite prolonged negotiations at the political level to resolve the outstanding territorial and boundary dispute between the two countries, there has been little progress in moving towards resolution on this sensitive issue. The unstable security relationship has the potential to act as a spoiler and will ultimately determine whether the two Asian giants will clash or cooperate for mutual gains.

China’s annexation China has consistently claimed that it has always controlled Tibet. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The Tibetans believe that Tibet was like Shangri-La until Chinese storm troopers launched an assault on Lhasa and took control in 1950, in a campaign masterminded by Field Marshal Liu Bo Cheng and his Political Commisar Deng Xiaoping. As the opening words of Martin Scorcese’s 1997 film “Kundun,” proclaimed: “Tibetans have practiced non-violence for over a thousand years.” China’s rulers are well accustomed to controlling the flow of information and ideas and how history is interpreted. They have carefully edited out inconvenient parts of Tibet’s history. Since as far back as the 4th century, Tibet has been recognised as an independent nation state by the international community. In the early 7th century, under Songtsen Gampo, many Tibetans voluntarily converted to Buddhism and adopted a

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

India-China Territorial Dispute:

Little Progress Towards Resolution

language based on the Ranjana script. Both the religion and the script were imported from India. The Tibetans gradually began to control most of their region, including some parts of Myanmar, Nepal and present-day Xinjian. They extended their control over these areas through the use of military force. They pointedly refused to defer to Tang Dynasty emperors and in the late eighth century even briefly captured Changan, the Chinese capital, leading to the negotiation of borders between the two states. A succession of Dalai Lamas ruled Tibet as spiritual and temporal rulers for several centuries. It was only in the late 18th century that China began to exercise control over Tibet and even then it was mostly supervisory. Early in the 19th century, even that began to wane, as did China’s hold on other parts of its periphery. In January 1913, the 13th Dalai Lama declared Tibet to be an independent state. This declaration was recognised by the British, the colonial rulers of South Asia. The Shimla accord of 1914, a convention between the British, the Tibetans and Manchu China, which the Chinese do not recognise, established ‘Outer’ and ‘Inner’ Tibet and formalised the boundary between Tibet and India, which became known as the McMahon Line in the eastern sector, that is, Arunachal Pradesh. The accord held that China held suzerainty over Tibet, but not Sovereignty. However, China continued to interfere militarily in Tibet and eventually, the 14th Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959. Since then, tensions along the India-Tibet border have been high and even the India-China border war of 1962 failed to settle the issue.

Illegal occupation China has been in illegal occupation of large areas of Indian territory since the mid-1950s. In

Aksai Chin, which is part of Ladakh, China is in physical possession of approximately 38,000 sq km of Indian territory. In addition, Pakistan illegally ceded 5,180 sq km of Indian territory in the Shaksgam Valley of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, north-west of the Siachen Glacier, to China in 1963 under a boundary agreement that India does not recognise. Through this area China built the Karakoram highway that now provides a strategic land link between Xinjian, Tibet and Pakistan. There is now talk of Pakistan leasing the Northern Areas of Gilgit-Baltistan to China for development and the exploitation of natural resources. If this materialises, it will be another retrograde step and will have an adverse impact on the successful settlement of the India-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir.

China continues to stake its claim to about 96,000 sq km of Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh. The then Chinese Ambassador sun Yuxi in New Delhi had reiterated this claim in a not too diplomatic manner before President Hu Jintao’s visit in November 2006. Since then, Chinese interlocutors have claimed several times that the Tawang Tract is part of Tibet. It has been implied that the merger of this area with Tibet is non-negotiable. China’s often stated official position is that the reunification of Chinese territories is a sacred duty. In the last Party Congress of Communist Party of China (CPC), four resolutions mention the unification of China’s lost territories. More new projects have been sanctioned by Central Military Commission after the Party Congress for an enhanced military build-up in case of any hostility. China has already amassed a large number of troops in Tibet and constructed the metalled Western Express Highway as well as the world’s highest railway line which will enable faster mobilisation of troops from Gansu and Qinghai region in case of war. The PLA has constructed two major missile bases in Tibet and deployed missiles that can reach major targets in India.

China’s negotiating strategy is to resolve the dispute when the Chinese are in a much stronger position in terms of comprehensive national strength so that they can dictate terms

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

contumacious

Demarcation It is not so well known that the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and Tibet, implying de facto control after the 1962 war, is yet to be physically demarcated on the ground and delineated on military maps. The LAC is quite different from the disputed 4,056 km-long boundary between India and Tibet. The un-delineated LAC is a major destabilising factor as incidents such as the Nathu La clash of 1967 and the Wang Dung stand-off of 1986 can recur. The only positive development has been that after over a dozen meetings of the Joint Working Group and the Experts Group, maps showing the respective versions of the two armies have been exchanged for the least contentious Central Sector of the LAC, that is the Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh borders with Tibet, where no fighting had taken place in 1962. It clearly shows how intractable the challenge is. Early in 2005, India and China had agreed to identify “guiding principles and parametres” for a political solution to the decades old dispute. Many foreign policy analysts had hailed it as a great leap forward. This was not the first time that India signed a “feel-good” agreement with the Chinese. The Border Peace and Tranquillity Agreement (BPTA) signed with the Chinese in 1993 and the agreement on Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field signed in 1996 were expected to reduce the operational commitments of the army from having to permanently man the difficult LAC with China. However, it has not been possible to withdraw a single soldier from the LAC so far. In fact, despite the 1996 agreement, several incidents of Chinese intrusions at Asaphi La and elsewhere in Arunachal Pradesh have been periodically reported in the press and discussed in Parliament. While no violent incident has taken place in the recent past, there have been occasions when Indian and Chinese patrols have met face-to-face in areas like the two “fish-tail” shaped protrusions in the north-east corner of Arunachal Pradesh. such meetings have an element of tension built into them and despite the best of military training the possibility of an armed clash can never be ruled out. An armed clash in which there are heavy casualties can lead to a larger border incident that may not remain localised. In the western sector in Ladakh, the LAC is even more ambiguous because the paucity of easily recognisable terrain features on the Aksai Chin makes it difficult to accurately co-relate ground and map. Both sides habitually send patrols up to the point at which, in their perception, the LAC runs. These patrols leave “tell-tale” signs behind in the form of burjis (piles of stones), biscuit and cigarette packets and other similar markers in a sort of primitive ritual to lay stake to territory and assert their claim. In this sector too, many transgressions of the LAC by Chinese patrols have been reported. While the government invariably advises caution, it is extremely difficult for commanders of troops to advocate a soft line to their subordinates. There is an inherent contradiction in sending soldiers to patrol what they are told and believe are Indian areas

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

and simultaneously telling them that they must not under any circumstances fire on “intruding” or “transgressing” Chinese soldiers. This is the reason why it is operationally critical to demarcate the LAC on the ground and map. Once that is done, the inadequacy of recognisable terrain features can be overcome by exploiting GPS technology to accurately navigate up to the agreed and well-defined LAC on the ground and even unintentional transgressions can be avoided.

China’s negotiating strategy is to resolve the dispute when the Chinese are in a much stronger position in terms of comprehensive national strength so that they can dictate terms In this light, the Chinese intransigence in exchanging maps showing the alignment of the LAC in the western and the eastern sectors, while talking of lofty guiding principles and parametres to resolve the territorial and boundary dispute, is neither understandable nor condonable. It can only be classified as an attempt to put off resolution of the dispute “for future generations to resolve”, as Deng Xiaoping had famously told Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1988. The military gap between India and China is growing steadily. Clearly, China’s negotiating strategy is to resolve the dispute when the Chinese are in a much stronger position in terms of comprehensive national strength so that they can dictate terms.

Early resolution In a step forward in resolving minor disputes on the LAC, India and China have framed mutually agreed rules to operationalise the January 2012 agreement on constituting a border coordination mechanism to avert conflict. The Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs, which was agreed during the 15th round of border talks held in New Delhi in January 2012 between the two Special Representatives, has now been given a fillip. The agreed measures will include regular consultations and flag meetings or telephone and video conferences during emergencies along the LAC. It is to be hoped that the mechanism is expected to help prevent misunderstanding between the two countries arising from incursion into each other’s territory. The joint mechanism will also study ways to strengthen exchanges and cooperation between military personnel on the ground. It is in India’s interest to strive for the early resolution of the territorial dispute with China so that India has only one major military adversary to contend with. India will then be able to re-deploy some of the mountain divisions of the army and a few squadrons of the Indian Air Force to its western border to gain a decisive military edge against Pakistan. India may even be able to consider ‘downsizing’ a few army divisions and utilise the savings for the qualitative upgradation of the army. It is in this direction that the government of India must nudge the Chinese leadership during future diplomatic engagements. And, perhaps it is exactly why the Chinese do not wish to hasten resolution of the dispute.

Tibet

THE BUDDHIST CARD

Cecil Victor The writer has covered all wars with Pakistan as War Correspondent and reported from the conflict zones in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia in South East Asia as well as from Afghanistan. He is author of “India: The Security Dilemma”.

There was a sense of discomfort about what would happen if and when the present Dalai Lama relinquishes his position as the temporal pontiff of the Tibetans. Apparently the transfer of political power to an elected representative of the Tibetan government-in-exile has been smooth. On 10 March 2011, the Dalai Lama proposed changes to the exile charter which would remove his position of authority within the organisation. These changes were ratified on 29 May 2011, resulting in the Kalon Tripa (Prime Minister) becoming the highest-ranking office holder

China is bedevilled by a rising tide of Tibetan nationalism as seen in the increasing number of Tibetans selfimmolating themselves in various parts of the country and bomb-blasts in several important locations. The upsurge of Tibetan nationalism coinciding with the runup to the Beijing Olympics put the Dalai Lama, the spiritual head of worldwide Buddhism, directly in China's line of fire. China has long been trying to pick off the symbols of Buddhism so as to be able to manipulate Buddhists in various parts of the globe. The most blatant recent trick was a mega project designed for the “revitalisation and modernisation” of the birthplace of the Buddha in Lumbini in Nepal without permission from the government of Nepal. The Chinese would be playing the Buddhist card to try and pacify the growing outrage over the eradication of the Tibetan culture with the infusion of the Chinese Han communities into the Tibetan Autonomous Region.

Tool in pagan hands

ations with large Buddhist populations are beginning to see in China’s acquisition of things Buddhist as an attempt to extend political hegemony beyond its immediate borders. Some, like Myanmar, see great advantage in association with a great neighbour but there are others in the Asia-Pacific region that are becoming wary of baleful Chinese influence as illustrated in the murderous manifestation in the cult of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia which killed several million of its own people. Also, Beijing’s pandering to Islamist fundamentalism using Pakistan as a proxy is being seen as a new emerging threat by nations with minority Muslim populations. Central to such phenomena is the tendency to totalitarianism and mass exterminations turning peaceful societies into intolerant despots. Buddhism, for instance, preaches non-violence but the pervasive manifestation in the form of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia turned it into a murderous outfit, the social engineering of which cost nearly three million lives. An example of how China can exploit its influence abroad is available in the manner in which the whole Chinese population in Vietnam left the country in a mass exodus triggered by Beijing’s call to ethnic Chinese to quit Vietnam throwing a nation that had just emerged victorious against American imperialism into disarray.

Pattern of aggression The attack later all along Vietnam’s northern border was reminiscent of a similar campaign against India in 1962. Beijing has been at pains to make it clear that it intends to do worse than just firing missiles over the heads of the Taiwanese in case the groundswell for a separate identity goes out of control in breakaway Taiwan. Taipei at one point appeared to be tempting fate by seeking a separate seat in the UN in an assertion of sovereignty that made China see red. The upsurge of Tibetan nationalism coinciding with the runup to the Beijing Olympics put the Dalai Lama, the spiritual head of worldwide Buddhism, directly in China’s line of fire. Having incorporated that nation into Han overlordship Beijing has been assiduous in trying to control if not obliterate the influence the pontiff wields over Buddhists around the world. To that end it has exerted claims on Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh where the monastery is both a seat of Buddhist learning as well as a symbol of the Dalai Lama’s influence. That it should remain outside its jurisdiction is apparently becoming untenable for China and that is why it has relapsed to a claim to the whole of Arunachal Pradesh to put the Government of India on the back foot even as contradictory trends have been in the forefront of a convergence of views on global terrorism and even an India-China-Russia entente cordiale intended to enforce the multi-polarity of spheres of global influence.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Succession issue Beijing had long ago neutralised the position and personage of the Panchen Lama, the second most influential of the Tibetan pantheon and has even suggested that it would open talks with the Dalai Lama directly if he relinquishes claims to sovereignty of the Tibetan people and allows China to manage the Tibetan affairs without the Dalai Lama playing any political role. Further, the nomination of the Dalai Lama is proposed by Beijing to be shifted out of the realm of reincarnation - a typically Tibetan politico-cultural innovation - to direct control of the Chinese politburo. Needless to say that none of these is acceptable to Tibetans in particular (as is being made adequately clear by the recrudescence of violence in several Tibetan cities) nor to the Buddhists in the diaspora.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

THE BUDDHIST CARD

It is these manoeuvres by China that have raised concerns among countries on a wide swathe of the globe ranging from the Pacific rim, through South-east Asia and India and even in the US where personalities like actor Richard Gere have long supported the Dalai Lama in his opposition to the occupation of Tibet by Chinese troops. There was a sense of discomfort about what would happen if and when the present Dalai Lama relinquishes his position as the temporal pontiff of the Tibetans. Apparently the transfer of political power to an elected representative of the Tibetan government-in-exile has been smooth. On 10 March 2011, the Dalai Lama proposed changes to the exile charter which would remove his position of authority within the organisation. These changes were ratified on 29 May 2011, resulting in the Kalon Tripa (Prime Minister) becoming the highest-ranking office holder.

The upsurge of Tibetan nationalism coinciding with the runup to the Beijing Olympics put the Dalai Lama, the spiritual head of worldwide Buddhism, directly in China's line of fire. Having incorporated that nation into Han overlordship Beijing has been assiduous in trying to control if not obliterate the influence the pontiff wields over Buddhists around the world. To that end it has exerted claims on Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh where the monastery is both a seat of Buddhist learning as well as a symbol of the Dalai Lama's influence The control of Buddhism’s most sacred signs and symbols by Beijing would give it much greater clout to interfere in the internal affairs of nations that are predominantly Buddhist. Myanmar is a case in point and China has long looked upon Sri Lanka (where such relics as the Buddha’s tooth are central to reverence there) as one of the pearls in a necklace of bases that it is setting in place around the globe beginning assertively in the near horizon with the island territories of the Paracel and Spratley chain lying several hundred miles away from its coastline off the shore of Vietnam.

The issue of Taiwan is also acquiring momentum of its own and this is reflected in the reassertion by India of its position that it supports a “one China policy” and that is why taken together - the developments in Tibet as well as Taiwan’s moves to break away from Chinese influence - have induced a state of flux over which way the Chinese cat will jump. The crackdown on dissents in Tibet has been brutal, evoking memories of Tienanmen Square in the heart of Beijing giving rise to fears in the region about China’s intentions.

Chickens come home to roost It can as well be described as poetic justice that indigenous Islamic fundamentalist terrorists should attack China’s main city in Xinjiang, its western-most province. It comes after nearly a quarter century of support to Pakistan in its use of jihad as a tool for territorial aggrandisement in Afghanistan and Jammu and Kashmir. Their camouflage of being “freedom fighters” seeking “selfdetermination” was fully endorsed by Beijing. Today, the same elements are knocking at China’s door. The enormity of China’s irresponsibility as a nuclear weapons power can be gauged by its support to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme and Islamabad’s policy of first use of nuclear weapons if its attempts to use jihad to grab the Muslim-dominated region of the Kashmir valley are frustrated by Indian security forces.

Indigenous Islamic fundamentalist terrorists should attack China's main city in Xinjiang, its western-most province. It comes after nearly a quarter century of support to Pakistan in its use of jihad as a tool for territorial aggrandisement in Afghanistan as well as Jammu and Kashmir Yet it is not as if China has not been feeling the heat of Islamic fundamentalism over the years. Islamic terrorists have killed Chinese engineers in Kunduz in Afghanistan and in Gomalzam in the North West Frontier Province and in Balochistan in Pakistan. Beijing has on several

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

occasions demanded and secured the custody of several members of the East Turkistan Islamic Movement operating from Pakistani soil. The East Turkistan Islamic Movement is seeking to break away from mainland China on the basis of religion - an irony that has put China’s teeth on edge and that is one of the reasons why it did not give the wholehearted support that Musharraf sought from it on Kargil. The parallel of the terrorists using jihad as a camouflage to conduct their landgrab operation in Jammu and Kashmir is not lost on China.

The control of Buddhism's most sacred signs and symbols by Beijing would give it much greater clout to interfere in the internal affairs of nations that are predominantly Buddhist The East Turkistan Islamic Movement followers have received training in the use of weapons in the tribal belt of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan. They have managed to attack Chinese engineers in Pakistan mainly because of the opposition to Musharraf’s policy of supporting (albeit half-heartedly) the US-led Coalition Against Terror by first Nek Mohammad of the Mehsud tribe ( he was killed in a US air strike which the tribals believe was enabled by intelligence about Nek Mohammad’s presence at a certain house at a particular moment.

Ill-equipped However, even in the face of a rising frequency and attacks on more widespread targets in Xinjiang the intensity of the attacks tends to give the impression that the terrorists do not have enough heavy weapons or explosives to inflict mass damage per attack. In the attack on the police training camp in Kashgar, for example, the two terrorists first tried to ram their lorry into the massed policemen doing their morning drill. When the vehicle rammed against an electric pole the two terrorists used handgrenades and then waded into the shocked police ranks with bare knives indicating the limited nature of the firepower in their possession. Also, the lorry was not packed with explosives for maximum effect.

It was largely because of the separatist movement among the Uyghurs of Xinjiang that China floated the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) inclusive of the Soviet Union and India because all members had suffered Islamic fundamentalist attacks ever since the Taliban, created in the madrassas of Pakistan, began supporting terrorist groups in the former Central Asian republics of the Soviet Union bordering Afghanistan. The Islamic complexion of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan regimes that broke away from Communist Russia were being sought to be talibanised by Pakistan in an attempt to extend its sphere of influence beyond the “strategic depth” it had gained in Afghanistan.

China is bedevilled by a rising tide of Tibetan nationalism as seen in the increasing number of Tibetans self-immolating themselves in various parts of the country and bomb-blasts in several important locations reflecting the degree of intolerance that is prevalent in China The recent series of attacks by the Uyghurs in Xinjiang and the Tibetans in a wide swathe of China indicates the limited utility of the SCO given the blatant duality of China’s approach to terrorism. In the case of the Tibetans Beijing has had to bend and concede the resumption of a political dialogue with representatives of the Dalai Lama who had made it plain on several occasions that he is not seeking to separate from China but wanted greater freedom to practice Buddhism by Tibetans and a protection for their culture within the overarching control of Chinese suzerainty. Beijing has long been chary of the personal charisma of the Dalai Lama and has refused to let him return to Lhasa and has kept the second most venerable figure in Tibetan Buddhism - the Panchen Lama - under house arrest ever since the Dalai Lama fled to India in 1958. So far as the Uyghurs of Xinjiang are concerned, the sporadic nature of their attacks is not going to force the government in Beijing to offer them any concessions. It should have been expected that as soon as the Beijing Olympics close China is going to crack down on them with much ferocity for

daring to bring Chinese suzerainty to question at that particular delicate moment when the Chinese leadership was trying to project an image of invincibility before the comity of nations.

China’s bullying tactic India did the right thing in preventing China from dominating and dictating the agenda of the recent Buddhist conference in New Delhi. Coming as it does so soon after India played an important role in undercutting China’s exclusivist claims to the whole of the South China Sea - a manoeuvre that would have left an indomitable nation like Vietnam under the suzerainty of a bullying Beijing which was trying hard to prevent Indo-Vietnamese cooperation in the development of oilfields in the seas close to Hanoi’s shores - it was a welcome show of spine. By trying to dominate a conference that has brought a unity of purpose among the several strands of Buddhism, Beijing was, once again, playing a deep game of controlling and moulding the Buddhist diaspora in Nepal, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Indonesia and the island nations of the “South China Sea”. The message that Beijing was trying to send out was that things cannot happen in this part of the world without China’s permission. India tripped it up nice and proper. Among the many other geopolitical dirty tricks that China has up its sleeves an important one is the Buddhist card. China has long been trying to pick off the symbols of Buddhism so as to be able to manipulate Buddhists in various parts of the globe. The most blatant recent trick was a mega project designed for the “revitalisation and modernisation” of the birthplace of the Buddha in Lumbini in Nepal without permission from the government of Nepal. How important is this Buddhist factor in the Chinese scheme of things is seen in the manner in which it began reasserting claims to the Tawang tract where the famous Buddhist monastery is located. It did capture it in 1962 but it withdrew because it was a bridge too far for China at that point of time. Now it is asserting claims to the whole of Arunachal Pradesh

because its military infrastructure is now in place. Tawang is important for the Chinese for several reasons, the most important being the Buddhist nature of the shrine. By gaining control of Tawang the Chinese would be playing the Buddhist card to try and pacify the growing outrage over the eradication of the Tibetan culture with the infusion of the Chinese Han communities into the Tibetan Autonomous Region. For another, it is symbolic in that Tawang was where the current Dalai Lama escaped into freedom in 1954. If it is able to gain control of Tawang the Chinese would have their finger on the pulse of the Buddhist diaspora in the increasingly strategically important South-east Asia where the disagreement over the South China Sea is making China look exactly as its true nature is-a hegemonist, hectoring bully.

Tibetan uprising Currently, China is bedevilled by a rising tide of Tibetan nationalism as seen in the increasing number of Tibetans self-immolating themselves in various parts of the country and bomb-blasts in several important locations reflecting the degree of intolerance that is prevalent in China. The Tibetans have taken a leaf out of the Vietnamese struggle for sovereignty against the American occupation of South Vietnam they are using the same weapon of self-immolation that the Vietnamese Buddhists used to show up the ugly face of America. The Tibetans are showing the mirror to the ugly face of China. All this is happening even though the Tibetan Autonomous Region is a tightly controlled area. Recently China had raised fears of a Nepali angle to the unrest but if it is happening it would not be because the Nepal government has encouraged it. India, even though it has allowed the Dalai Lama to visit Tawang as “an honoured guest” has done nothing to encourage the Tibetans to revolt. But that it is happening should be of great comfort to India. After all the Chinese have been arming north-east rebels in their separate wars against the Indian nation state. Finally, the biter has been bitten.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

FREEDOM FROM OPPRESSION

Vinita Agrawal The writer is a Gold Medallist in MA, Political Science from the MS University, Baroda. She is a researcher and poet and has worked freelance for over 20 years. She has published papers on Comparative Analysis of Media in India and Pakistan and Cultural connectivity in the SAARC region. The overall approach of the Tibetan community for freedom of their homeland is still the middle way approach that His Holiness the Fourteenth Dalai Lama always advocates. Even the self-immolations are motivated at self–hurt rather than violence towards the enemies. It is nothing but a clear rejection of the Chinese rule

There was a major Khampa rebellion in Tibet in 1956. The Chinese used tanks and jet bombers to crush it. This forced the Dalai Lama to flee to India in 1959. The armed revolt continued for many years, first in the Lokha province and then opposite Nepal region. It petered out by the 1970s. However there was another uprising in 2008. This time around, the Chinese flew in their 15 Airborne Corps and rushed in a number of Rapid Reaction Units to crush the rebellion once again in a most heavy-handed manner. Just three years later, the yearning for freedom from this oppression has begun to manifest itself in desperate measures now. A spate of 23 horrifying self-immolations by young monks and even nuns have occurred within Tibet in the past two years. A sensitive portrayal of the Tibetan diaspora’s yearning for a return to their promised homeland. This article highlights how, despite decades of Chinese repression , the hopes of an eventual return have been kept alive by the Tibetan people who have been scattered in all countries of the globe.

Yearning For The Promised Land

ibet was once known as the Shangri-la of the world; a paradise of mountains and rivers, pristine white in winter and verdantly pastoral in summer. It was a high heavenly plateau, a roof of the world, remote, almost inaccessible and its people lived a life of peace and harmony, practicing Buddhism and devoutly venerating the Dalai Lama. But since the Chinese took over, thousands of Tibetans have fled their country and still cross over into India and Nepal and try to build the remnants of a life for themselves, in exile. Dharamshala or Dhasa as Tibetans popularly refer to it is the new Lhasa. Since the occupation, the atrocities of the Chinese have intensified. Local Tibetans are not allowed to live a normal life, not allowed to practice their religion and not permitted to live in accordance with their culture. They are treated as second grade citizens in their own land. Worst of all the suppressive Chinese government enforces a policy of re-education whereby Tibetans are forced to speak Chinese and live according to the dictates of the communist regime. Indeed, a mammoth cultural genocide is on in China. There was a major Khampa rebellion in Tibet in 1956. The Chinese used tanks and jet bombers to crush it. This forced the Dalai Lama to flee to India in 1959. The revolt continued for many years, first in the Lokha province and then opposite Nepal region. It petered out by the 1970s. However there was another uprising in 2008. This time around, the Chinese flew in their 15 Airborne Corps and rushed in a number of Rapid Reaction Units to crush the rebellion once again in a most heavy-handed manner. Just three years later, the yearning for freedom from this oppression has begun to manifest itself in desperate measures now. A spate of 23 horrifying self-immolations by young monks and even nuns have occurred within Tibet in the past two years. Young Exiled Tibetans often resort to self-torturing hunger strikes in fervent protest against the atrocities of the Chinese regime. Whether it is Kham, Ngaba, the Jantar Mantar in Delhi or the headquarters of the UN in New York, these youngsters are prepared to burn themselves alive or go without food for 25 days at a stretch in an attempt to make the Chinese bend just a little. The fragility of living a life of exile for over half a century and the degrading dependency that marks their existence has now turned into fire that is reflected in these extreme measures.

The Tibetan Diaspora:

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

These distress signals which the Tibetans are wretchedly flagging out, lay bare the colossal failure of China’s colonial project in Tibet. They are symbolic of the resistance movement burgeoning in the Land of snow. Beijing is quickly learning that it can imprison Tibetans, not their ideas, words or dreams for the promised homeland. The self-immolation is under reported but no less overwhelming because of it. Ostensibly, the canvas of the struggle for a free Tibet is expanding, the drive of the SFT (a world body of Students for Free Tibet) is increasing and the demand of anguished expatriates is taking on a hard diamond edge.

A spate of 23 horrifying self-immolations by young monks and even nuns have occurred within Tibet in the past two years. Young Exiled Tibetans often resort to self-torturing hunger strikes in fervent protest against the atrocities of the Chinese regime One of the key issues is the rising tide of Han immigration into Tibet which has made the Tibetans a minority in their own homeland. Thus the Eastern Province of Amdo which HH the Dalai Lama himself hails from, today has a population of 2.5 million Chinese and only 7, 50, 000 Tibetans. The situation is equally bad in the so called Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) that is in Central and Western Tibet. The problem is now compounded with the construction of the Gormo-Lhasa Railway line (Quinghai Tibet Rail line) which is bringing in hordes of Chinese immigrants every month. It all seems part of a deliberate Chinese policy to change the entire demographic character of Tibet and “Hanise” the area by way of a permanent solution to its internal security problems. The Chinese workers incidentally, are paid significantly higher wages for the same work than the Tibetans, who have been reduced to second class citizens in their own land. We are not asking for a piece of land; we are asking for our way of life.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

Dispossessed of their land, their history, culture and lineage, the Tibetans are compelled to wander and seek work for themselves. A deep melancholy and sorrow rules their heart whether they live inside or outside Tibet. This grief is now turning into a rage.“We are not asking for a piece of land; we are asking for our way of life” is what one of the monks who immolated himself is reported to have said as he clutched a photo of the Dalai Lama to his chest before dousing himself with fire and setting himself aflame.

When will the time come when in truth I can say say to all my Indian friends I am going back forever forever back to my homeland The new generation of Tibetans has inherited a lineage of resistance poetry. Tenzin Tsundue is a typhoon

A deep melancholy and sorrow rules their heart whether they live inside or outside Tibet. This grief is now turning into a rage. “We are not asking for a piece of land; we are asking for our way of life” His Holiness the Dalai Lama is still at the helm of the affairs - an unshakeable world symbol of peace and compassion for each and every Tibetan. Tibetans yearn to see the Dalai Lama occupy his rightful place in the Potala Palace at Lhasa. For the present, the Palace has been turned into a museum.

Resistance poetry The longings, the sorrow, the yearnings carried within the hearts of the older generation of Tibetans have been passed down to a new generation. The anger, the sense of betrayal and a conviction that the future of Tibet now depends on the strength of unity imbues the lives and sensibilities of the new and old generation of Tibetans alike. Lhasang Tsering is an older generation Tibetan. He owns a book shop in Dharamshala. He was a freedom fighter. He was one of the few who can claim to have picked up arms to fight for Tibetan independence. He was part of the famous armed group based in Mustang, Nepal in the 1970s before they were forced to stop their campaigns. Today, living in exile in Dharamshala, he remains a passionate voice for the independence of Tibet from China. His poetry expresses his deepest angst for the homeland that has been denied to him. One of his poems poignantly projects the ultimate yearning for the homeland:

Tibet

FREEDOM FROM OPPRESSION

of activities. He is often referred to as the ‘new and most visible face of Dalai Lama’s restless children’. Whether it is expressing solidarity for hunger strikers at Delhi or travelling to Australia to do a series of one-act plays for the cause of Free Tibet, or reading Poetry at Mumbai or going to New York this year for the National Uprising Day on the 10th of March, Tsundue La does it all with infinite passion and ceaseless patriotic zeal. In 2002 he scaled 14 floors of a Mumbai Hotel to protest against the visit of the Chinese Premier and unfurled a Free Tibet banner and a Tibetan flag on the Hotel’s facade. He repeated this stunt in Bangalore in 2005. His story ‘My kind of exile’ won a major Indian Literary Prize for expressing the tragedy of being a Tibetan in this world. China will have to kill every Tibetan to silence them. The significant thing is that the yearning for their homeland by the Tibetan Diaspora is not confined to writers and activists alone. It percolates down to the Momo seller at the street corner, to the aching hearts of old women selling sweaters in Tibetan markets and to the entire monk and lay exile community. After the devolution of powers by His Holiness to the elected

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Kalon Tripa, Lobsang Sangay, the yearning has been communicated afresh on international platforms and forums with renewed force and forthrightness. The Tibetan Parliament in Exile has urged the communist regime of China to end repression in Tibet saying that “China will have to kill every Tibetan to silence them”. Autonomy for Tibet within the Chinese rule is their main demand. Having said that, it must be stated that the overall approach of the Tibetan community for freedom of their homeland is still the middle way approach that His Holiness the Fourteenth Dalai Lama always advocates. Even the self-immolations are motivated at self–hurt rather than violence towards the enemies. It is nothing but a clear rejection of the Chinese rule.

CLASH OF THE TITANS?

Between Dragon and the Elephant: The Geostrategic Significance of Tibet

An analysis of the Chinese-Tibetan relationship and an examination of likely scenarios. It highlights the crucial impact that the selection of the next Dalai Lama will have on the issue of Tibetan identity and future. The current Dalai the 14th Dalai Lama, has been the torch bearer of the Tibetan movement across the world. He has visited many countries of the world to spread awareness about the Tibetan cause. With the development pertaining to his resignation, the whole scene has been laid wide open. The future of the Tibetan people and Tibet will largely depend on who becomes the next Dalai Lama and how he perceives the issue of Tibetan identity.

Despite the mushroom effect of Tibet’s movement for freedom, China is apparently unmoved. It has resolutely vowed to curb any unrest, any incitement of what it calls ‘trouble’ in its territory. Perhaps increased international pressure and a firm stand by human rights agencies like the United Nations might help to mitigate China’s stubborn position.

Sana Hashmi The writer is associated with Centre for Air Power Studies and her area of interest is China and its neighbourhood.

The current Dalai the 14th Dalai Lama, has been the torch bearer of the Tibetan movement across the world. He has visited many countries of the world to spread awareness about the Tibetan cause. With the development pertaining to his resignation, the whole scene has been laid wide open. The future of the Tibetan people and Tibet will largely depend on who becomes the next Dalai Lama and how he perceives the issue of Tibetan identity

The year 2012 has been infamously touted as a year of catastrophes. Although public fascination with apocalyptic stories does not necessarily translate into real beliefs, most people do however secretly subscribe to an alternative vision of 2012 - one that sees the end of totalitarianism and tyranny. If the watershed events of the past year in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia etc. are any indication, there is every reason to believe that Dictatorships will now have a harder time withstanding the wave of resistance from oppressed people. It is simmering on the web, in homes, on the streets and more significantly in people’s hearts and minds. Non-violent weaponry of cultural renaissance, social innovations, political protest, economic non-cooperation and civil disobedience are making their impact felt like never before. Perhaps this yearning will see fulfilment after all ...

he power balance of Asia is imperative not only for the future of this region but also for the entire world, as two of the world’s fastest growing economic and military powers viz. India and China are located in this region. Evidently, one of the most important aspects of this set of bilateral relationship is Tibet which holds a vital geostrategic importance for both the nations. Considering its geostrategic positioning and therefore the crucial importance; militarily and strategically, it will not be exaggeration to say that future course of history, in this part of the world, will be determined by Tibet and its fate.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

CLASH OF THE TITANS?

Situated in the Himalayan belt, Tibet lies along the north-eastern border of India. It is a place with strong cultural and religious background and can be termed as the ‘Sanctum of Buddhism’. Popularly known as ‘The Roof of the World’, Tibet has been under Chinese occupation for over 60 years now. The claims and counter-claims by China and Tibetans seem like a never ending ping-pong game.

The PRC's policies toward independent India have been characterised as a judicious combination of deep strategy and surface diplomacy; China's deep strategy, observable from the pattern of her actions, is to gain a strategic edge over India in inner Asia by courting Indian acquiescence in the Chinese occupation of Tibet Before the Chinese occupation Tibet acted as a buffer zone between China and India. However, with Tibet under China’s control, the buffer zone has ceased to exist and now India and China share a common boundary. Considering a long history of territorial dispute between India and China, it is important to locate Tibet in the bilateral power-game. As is known, China not only controls Tibet but has also been claiming the Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim provinces of India. To them, it is part of Southern Tibet and therefore should be part of China. The repeated incursions in the Indian territory by the Peoples’ Liberation Army soldiers leave India with nothing but concerns about China’s dreadful designs. It leaves one with the point that perhaps India’s giving away Tibet was a major geostrategic folly on part of India. The Chinese belief has been that Tibet has always been a part of China and due to imperialistic influence and the feudal exploitation, Tibet had become a living hell and the false notion of independence prevailed. According to China, after Tibet was ‘liberated’ and merged with the Chinese motherland, it has been ushered into an era of harmony and growth. China invaded Tibet on 7th October 1950, when 40,000 People’s Liberation Army troops from the south-west military region

crossed Drichu River and captured Tibet. China claims Tibet to be its part based on different arguments. One, the ‘Five Races’ theory of China, according to which five races viz., Chinese, Mongols, Manchus, Tibetans and Tatars, are parts of the Chinese mainland historically as well as culturally. Second, China claims that during 18th century the Tibetan ruler, who was a Mongol, paid taxes to China. Later China helped Tibetns to defeat a breakaway clan of Mongols, who killed the Tibetan ruler and also helped in installing the 7th Dalai Lama, thereby beginning the 200 year overlordship of Tibet by China. Third, China believes that the British had vested interests in Tibet and they tried to induce a false sense of independence among Tibetans, which was evident by the Shimla agreement of 1914. Going back to history, China claims that the relations between China and Tibet started many centuries ago. It is often argued that the marriages between Han and Tibetan royal families cemented political and kinship ties of unity and political friendship and formed close economic and cultural relations, laying a solid foundation for ultimate founding of a unified nation. The claim of China on Tibet was escalated once the People’s Republic of China was formed and the communists took over the reign of China. Tibet was the foremost point of communist policy as they wanted to impress upon the fact that they were the real patriots and they wanted to unite all the regions and communities of the great Chinese empire into the Chinese motherland. China has been making incessent efforts to build a sound and reliable infrastruture in the Tibet region and along the Indian borders, something which discomforts India. China holds an edge over India with its superior infrastructure close to the north-eastern border of India. The current situation has already led to a huge increase in the defence expenditure of India and China. Since Tibet is under China, it has initialled vast infrastructural and modernisation plans in Tibet. For

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

China, this is the proof of the fact that it is treating Tibet and Tibetans as its own part and ushering it into modern era. It also established Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) in 1965, giving autonomy to Tibetans on many internal issues.

can lead to severe water scarcity in north-eastern region of India and these are also touted as part of China’s ‘south-to-north’ water diversion project. Both these dams are capable of deeply affecting the flow of water in India’s Brahmaputra river.

The gigantic rail-road infrastructure, which China has built and is planning to develop, can be viewed from the different perspectives. From China’s views, this is another effort by the Chinese government to modernise Tibet and to connect it to the Chinese mainland. However, from the Tibetan viewpoint, keeping in mind strategic significance of Tibet for India, these infrastructural projects are meant to tighten up the grip of communism over China to suppress the Tibetan culture and to surround India on the north-eastern frontier, hence it can be termed as more of a strategic and military project rather than a mere developmental and connectivity endeavour.

The major projects undertaken by China include Xikang-Tibet and Qinghai-Tibet highways, Damruk airport and the recent and highly talked about Golmud-Lhasa rail link. These projects are not the only major mega-projects undertaken by China in Tibet. The massive damming projects are also crucial to water security of India. The most prominent being that of water security. Most of the major rivers in India originate in Tibet. China being the upper riparian state controls the origin points of the rivers flowing to India. India, by virtue of being the lower riparian state, is not left with much option. The situation gets bleaker due to the fact that China, so far, has not formulated any water-sharing policy with any of its neighbours. China is building many dams on Brahmaputra (YarlungTsangpo in Tibet), of which at least two have severe consequences for water supply of north-eastern India. Their first dam is on the great bend at Tsangpo (the river takes a u-turn while in Tibetan region to enter India) near Mt. Namcha Barwa. The second major project is east of Lhasa at Shoumatan.These dams are capable of deeply affecting the flow of water in India’s Brahmaputra river, which

These projects, according to China, are meant to satisfy the growing demand of water in China. Although for India and Tibet, these projects are not so simple. These dams and water related projects can cause a serious concern for water-security in India, as India is highly dependent on water of the rivers originating from Tibet. For Tibetans, these projects will cause severe ecological and environmental degradation. On the basis of developments on Tibet issue, three different scenarios can be discussed. First and most liekly scenario is that Tibet continues to be under China. This will have severe impacts, not only for Tibetans but also for India. The worst fear of Tibetans is that China will slowly and methodically wipe out the Tibetan culture and religion will become a non-entity for Tibetans. China will grow stronger and its oppressive regime and policy for Tibet will make sure that any movement and voices of Tibetans are successfully crushed. This will also make China the supreme controller of the natural wealth of Tibet. In such a scenario, the infrastructural projects may increase and a strong military network for transport and troops stationing will also become a reality. This will have a direct impact on India, as China will become more assertive and aggressive in its claim on parts of Indian territories. The antecedent of border dispute

between India and China lay in Chinese invasion of Tibet in 1950 as with this China gets closer to India and fuelled Chinese ambitions of restoring sovereignty over so-called ‘lost’ territories. The more developed infrastructure close to Indian border will give a strategic edge to China in event of a conflict. The PRC’s policies toward independent India have been characterised as a judicious combination of deep strategy and surface diplomacy; China’s deep strategy, observable from the pattern of her actions, is to gain a strategic edge over India in inner Asia by courting Indian acquiescence in the Chinese occupation of Tibet. To counter the Chinese power, there will be a rush in attaining arms and modern weapons; thereby increasing the Indian defence budget more. Another factor that will have an adverse effect for India will be the water security issue. If Tibet continues to be a part of China, the China’s policy of damming major rivers will go unchecked and China will be supreme master of water of the rivers originating in Tibet, which are lifeline to millions of Indians. The second scenario, the possibilities of which seem quite bleak without any super power intervention or any disturbance within China, is that Tibet attains independence and becomes a free nation. This would be the most advantageous situation for India as it will restore Tibet as a buffer state between India and China, hence restoring the option for India to stay away from Chinese incursions and focus on developing itself and the region as well. A free Tibet might even cause breakdown of the Chinese nation and its communist policy as slipping of Tibet from hands of Chinese will be a huge setback for the Chinese government and might lead to political and even military unrest. The implications of a free Tibet are far reaching and have direct impact on the regional strategic dynamics leading to a major shift in the power equation in Asia. The third scenario is that Tibet becomes an autonomous state, despite being under Chinese control. Autonomy as demanded by Tibetans means that all internal matters will be handled by the Tibetan government.

China does not seem to entertain it as even if it is not realised, it might not lead to much change in the regional paradigm. As the defence will be under China, the power equation of Indian sub-continent is not expected to change, the only positive outcome can be that the Tibetans will be able to live in their own nation and administer the country through a government chosen by them. Although the level of Chinese interference will be a crucial aspect in determining the prosperity of Tibetans. However, it may be noticed that the above mentioned propositions are hypothetical in nature and to predict the exact outcome of these scenarios is like playing Russian roulette. Moreover, if Tibet becomes independent, whether China breaks down is a matter of mere speculation. Rather than weakening China, a free Tibet might lead to an aggressive China. An autonomous Tibet cannot necessarily mean life and peace for Tibetans as defence and foreign affairs will still remain under China. In such a situation, China will still be able to exercise its cryptic policies in the name of defence of Tibet. On the entire issue of Tibet, the current Dalai the 14th Dalai Lama has been the torch bearer of the Tibetan movement across the world. He has visited many countries of the world to spread awareness about the Tibetan cause. With the development pertaining to his resignation, the whole scene has been laid wide open. The future of the Tibetan people and Tibet will largely depend on who becomes the next Dalai Lama and how he perceives the issue of Tibetan identity. That is likely to be a turning point in the Tibetan riddle, as many questions will come to the fore with the new Dalai Lama. Will the new Lama follow the footsteps of his predecessor? Or will he formulate a radical approach to counter the Chinese policy? Will he accept the control of China over Tibet with minimal autonomy? The answer to all of these questions lies in future. However, it can be said in no uncertain terms that the developments will define the future of Tibet and to some extent that of India’s strategic persona.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Tibet

EUropean PERSPECTIVE

Europe has discarded its much touted promotion of Human Rights at the altar of economic expediency. The writer presents the European perspective on Tibet and how the European stand against Chinese atrocities has been totally sidelined for the pragmatic purposes of maintaining the lucrative trade relations with China. Dominika Cosic The writer is a journalist and political correspondent based in Brussels. She specialises in NATO and European Union affairs. She is correspondent (Europe) of Defence and Security Alert (DSA) magazine. EU citizens mostly are supporting idea of independent Tibet and most of them consider Dalai Lama as a guru. Even if they don't know exactly what is the history of Tibet, what is the real situation, they are fascinated by images of peaceful leader of repressed people. But European politicians think more pragmatically and even if they do not agree with Chinese politics towards Tibet, they perfectly know who is for them the real economic partner. And values are losing to business.

China has re-emerged as the world's second largest economy and the biggest exporter in the global economy, but also an increasingly important political power. EU-China trade has increased dramatically in recent years. China is now the EU's 2nd largest trading partner behind the USA and the EU's biggest source of imports by far

ccording to information from EU officials, China is the single most important challenge for EU trade policy. China has re-emerged as the world’s second largest economy and the biggest exporter in the global economy, but also an increasingly important political power. EU-China trade has increased dramatically in recent years. China is now the EU’s 2nd largest trading partner behind the USA and the EU’s biggest source of imports by far.

Business as usual The EU’s open market has been a large contributor to China’s export-led growth. The EU has also benefited from the growth of the Chinese market and the EU is committed to open trading relations with China. However the EU wants to ensure that China trades fairly, respects intellectual property rights and meets its WTO obligations. Just compare the numbers - EU exports to China 2011: Euro 136.2 billion (+20% on 2010) EU imports from China 2011: Euro 292.1 billion (+3% on 2010) EU’s imports from China are mainly industrial goods: machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles. EU’s exports to China are also concentrated on industrial products: machinery and transport equipment, miscellaneous manufactured goods and chemicals. And take a look once again for figures of Trade in services EU services exports to China 2010: Euro 20.2 billion EU services imports from China 2010: Euro 16.3 billion Foreign Direct Investment

I gave all these figures to underline how important a partner China is for Europe and it provides more understanding of the European position.

Question of Tibet However, there is also the second face of this mutual relationship. It is a question of human rights and respecting of human rights in Tibet in particular. EU politicians have many times declared their support for the democratisation process. At the European Parliament’s plenary session of October 2011, the Commissioner responsible for Digital Agenda, Neelie Kroes expressed the EU’s deep concern regarding the self-immolation of monks and nuns in the Tibetan areas. She pointed out that whilst the EU respected China’s territorial integrity, Tibetans’ political, cultural and religious rights ought to be upheld, in line with China’s constitution and Tibet’s autonomous status within China.

China inward investment to EU 2010: Euro 0.9 billion The EU was a strong supporter of China’s accession to the WTO, arguing that a WTO without China was not truly universal in scope. In 2006 the European Commission adopted a major policy strategy (Partnership and Competition) on China that pledged the EU to accepting tough Chinese competition while pushing China to trade fairly.

“The situation in Tibet is very desperate” – wrote Dalai Lama in a special letter sent to “EU Observer”. “Should the Chinese side reject the request, the EU could issue a strong statement of deep concern and raise the issue at international fora, such as

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

China or Tibet - European Dilemma

Part of this strategy is the ongoing negotiations on a comprehensive Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) that started in January 2007. These discussions aim to further improve the framework for bilateral trade and investment relations and also include the upgrading of the 1985 EC-China Trade and Economic Cooperation Agreement. However, positions remain far apart on many important chapters and the European Commission has called upon China to demonstrate more ambition.

Dalai Lama has been invited a few times to European Parliament as a special guest. Of course after every one of his visit Chinese officials expressed their strong disapproval.

EU inward investment to China 2010: Euro 4.9 billion

Money or values?

the United Nations Human Rights Council.” Every time when EU officials are going to visit Tibet mutual relations are suffering, even if these officials are only members of the European Parliament. Last example was few months ago when some MEPs intended to meet the Tibetan prime minister inexile ,Lobsang Sangay. Chinese Vice-minister in charge of Tibet, Zhu Weiqun, at a rare meeting with press in Brussels reminded then - “EU-China relations are all the more important due to the financial crisis ... I don’t see why at this point in EU-China relations the EU lets so many people point fingers at China’s internal affairs. I don’t recall China finger-pointing at EU affairs.” Addressing one of Catherine Ashton’s (High Representative for External Relations) diplomats at the meeting, Francesco Magiello, Zhu said the European External Action Service (EEAS) should rebuke MEPs for meeting with Lobsang Sangay. “I do hope that from the EU institutions some efforts could be

made to persuade those people who have a habit of making irresponsible remarks against China to learn more about this issue instead of pointing fingers,” he said.

Moment of truth The most difficult moment in EU-China-Tibet relations was four years ago, just before opening of Olympic Games in China. Due to actions of brutal and violent pacification of manifestation in Tibet, EU officials started to call for a boycott of this event. The idea of European politicians boycotting the opening ceremony of the Olympics was mentioned as a first by French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner, although he later backed away from the idea. The president of the European Parliament Hans-Gert Poettering had said that European countries should consider a boycott of the Olympics in Beijing if the Chinese government continued to take a hardline attitude to unrest in Tibet.

Poettering joined a growing list of western politicians calling on China to open talks with the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, whom Chinese officials blame for inciting a wave of protests and riots. But reality was much less idealistic. French President, Nicolas Sarkozy took part in the ceremony of opening. German Chancellor Angela Merkel did not go. As a result, France used the situation to reinforce relations with China. European Union is supporting democracy. EU citizens mostly are supporting idea of independent Tibet and most of them consider Dalai Lama as a guru. Even if they don’t know exactly what is the history of Tibet, what is the real situation, they are fascinated by images of peaceful leader of repressed people. But European politicians think more pragmatically and even if they do not agree with Chinese politics towards Tibet, they perfectly know who is for them the real economic partner. And values are losing to business.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

uring the expo, Northrop Grumman highlighted its Industry-Leading Security Capabilities for the Indian market. During our close interaction with one of the senior representatives from Northrop Grumman, they informed us that Northrop Grumman has well established its relationships with India and has been supporting a number of defence and civil programmes – including air traffic control communications systems and radars, unmanned ground vehicles and marine navigation systems - for more than 20 years. The company brings significant, relevant capabilities for homeland defence modernisation and command and control, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.

T I

n the midst of defence bribe controversy and post defence budget 2012, India’s biggest-ever land, naval and homeland security system exhibition, Defexpo India 2012 kicked off with fervour in New Delhi, India at Pragati Maidan on 29th March 2012. Hon’ble Defence Minister of India, Mr A K Antony, inaugurated the four day exhibition. Defexpo is organised by the Department of Defence Production, Ministry of Defence and Government of India through Defence Exhibition Organisation. The biennial event, hosting 567 exhibitors, which are comparatively up from 425 in 2010. All major public sector companies (PSUs and domestic shipyards) participated along with hundreds of large and small private sector companies: 335 Indian exhibitors in total. The exhibitors included 232 foreign companies from 32 countries, grouped in several national pavilions; the largest were those of the US, Russia, France, Israel, the UK and Germany. India is clearly paving the path of steady growth and has been receiving overwhelming and unprecedented international response with each edition. The main objective of the event was to promote defence exports from India and exhibit the capabilities of Indian defence R&D and production on a large platform. 567 companies from 32 countries displayed weapon systems for the Army, Navy and Internal Security. More than 60 official delegations including China, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka attended the exhibition. This year’s Defexpo saw major joint ventures, partnerships between big Indian industry houses and world's leading defence and security companies. Team DSA visited the expo and extensively covered the important developments and had very interesting interactions with most of the participants at the show.

ipro Limited, a leading global IT services company with a strong presence in niche market segments of Infrastructure, Engineering and Consumer Products and Lighting, signed a wide ranging pact with defence major Saab in 2011 to develop, manufacture and market latter’s Land Electronic Defence Systems (LEDS) - providing full spectrum protection countermeasure to cover passive and active responses, in India. Under this pact, Wipro and Saab will jointly pursue opportunities for these systems in India. “The agreement with Wipro is part of our endeavour to create a strong and enduring industrial production base for Saab,” said Mr Jan Widerstrom, Chairman, Saab India. Wipro will support Saab by offering development services in India and South Africa. It will bring its unique ability and competencies to adapt the products for the Indian market and provide its time tested customer service capabilities. The partnership envisages transfer of technology from Saab and large scale local manufacturing of these systems by Wipro. It also aims at paring manufacturing costs for state-of-the-art defence and civil security systems in India. As part of the pact, Wipro will develop, adapt and integrate LEDS equipment and software for Indian customers. The partnership also accords an opportunity for Saab to market these systems manufactured by Wipro overseas.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

he French Major DCNS Has Signed a Deal worth over Euro 50 Million with Indian SEC Industries for manufacturing components of the Scorpene submarine. In addition to executing the contract, SEC Industries will benefit from the transfer of technology from the French company. DCNS, is one of Europe’s leading shipbuilders. The over 350-year-old company, has bagged a huge contract from India to supply six Scorpene attack submarines, which are under construction at the Mazagon Dock Ltd (MDL), Mumbai. SEC Industries is also well equipped to take advantage of the defence offset clauses which provide big opportunities to Indian industry. It is already in partnership with IAI of Israel for manufacturing a number of products like shipping containers, ground data terminal trailers, refuelling carts, hook arresting systems etc. During the last two years, exports to Israel from the company have been over Rs 20 crore, said Mr Vidyasagar, MD. The company has signed agreements to make equipment for heavy duty launchers from Belarus and other defence products from Ukraine to tap the offset and defence export market, he added.

ith a backing of military sales of over US$ 10 billion in the last four years, the US has asked the American companies participating in the Defexpo to know and understand the procedures here for future business. More than 20 US companies including some of the big names like Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman participated in the Defexpo. US Charge d’ Affaires in India Peter Burleigh said, “The market here is definitely going to be a big market. Certainly in the long term, probably in the midterm and for the short term it is important to be here on the ground to make the connections, networks and know the procedures.”

ritish firm McGeoch Technology, known worldwide for engineering and supplying electrical equipment for warships and submarines, has bagged a deal to the tune of 2,50,000 GBP (US$ 3,98,700) from the Indian Navy. McGeoch Technology will be supplying advanced L E D

lighting to the Indian Navy as well as the Coast Guard. Indian Navy has been preparing to install LED lights in its entire fleet and McGeoch Technology will be developing and providing these lights under the new contract. According to McGeoch Technology, it has been interacting with the Indian Navy to suitably cater to their requirements. The contract between McGeoch Technology and Indian Navy will involve the supply of over 1,000 lights which will include a range of LED light fittings on the naval ships. This order of LED light fittings will be used on the two newly-built ships and will also aid the naval refit programmes. McGeoch Technology is known world over since it has engineered and supplied electrical equipment for many of the international frigates, destroyers, off-shore patrol vessels, missile boats and submarines. McGeoch has been a constant supplier to the British Royal Navy’s Type 45 Destroyer, Astute Submarine and Queen Elizabeth (QE) Class Aircraft Carrier Projects.

he country’s largest engineering conglomerate Larsen & Toubro has tied up with the US$ 200 billion Samsung Group’s defence arm Samsung Techwin to develop an artillery system for the Indian Army. L&T would play a lead role in the venture and has already submitted a proposal to develop self-propelled artillery to the defence ministry last year. Samsung Techwin is the original equipment manufacturer for Korea’s successful 155 mm self-propelled Howitzer called K9 Thunder and will transfer technology to the L&T venture.

ne of the major attractions at the Defexpo was the introduction of all-new MBVP (Micro Bullet-Proof Vehicle) by Tata Motors. This extreme combat mobile vehicle is designed and developed to help the special forces in the urban warfare scenarios as well as in case of a large conflict involving places such as railway stations, airports and other such structural urban areas of the city. Tata Motors has introduced four more vehicles other than the MBVP, which are the Light Armoured Vehicle, the 12×12 Prahaar Missile Carrier, the 6×6 7kl Refueller and the Mobile bunker with a full range of other concept combat related vehicles including QDMCT (Quick Deployment Mobile Communication Terminal) on display for the visitors and buyers of different nations’ armies and arms dealers.

uring the expo, Mahindra and Mahindra Announced Two Joint Ventures with Rafael Advanced Defence Systems. The company’s MoU with Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Ltd., a manufacturer of high-tech defence systems for air, land, sea and space applications, will lead to the formation of a Joint Venture company in India. The JV will develop and manufacture products such as Anti-Torpedo Defence Systems, Electronic Warfare Systems, Advanced Armouring Solutions and remotely operated weapon stations for Futuristic Infantry Combat Vehicles (FICV). Rafael will make investments in Mahindra’s existing Naval Systems division in Pune which will also be the location of a production facility which will be set up to meet the long-term requirements of the JV Company. Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Ltd., designs, develops, manufactures and supplies a wide range of high-tech defence systems for air, land, sea and space applications. Rafael was established as part of the Israeli Ministry of Defence more than 60 years ago. Rafael’s technology is embedded in almost all Israel Defence Forces (IDF) systems in operation today. The company has a special relationship with the IDF, developing products according to the soldiers’ specific requirements in the field.

RDO pavilion was setup with the theme of “Self-reliance” and was visited by the Hon’ble Raksha Mantri, Shri A K Antony, who earlier in the day inaugurated the exhibition on 29th March 2012.

Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) under the Department of Defence Research and Development of Ministry of Defence, developed explosive, H1N1 detection kit which was launched by Scientific Advisor to the Defence Ministry and Defence Secretary (R&D). Vijay Kumar Saraswat launched DRDO developed technologies to detect explosive materials and Swine Flu (H1N1) virus at Defexpo 2012. Speaking at the launch function, Dr Saraswat said, “The explosive detection kit can be helpful to control illegal trafficking of explosive materials, apart from detection and identification of such materials in the pre- and post-blast scenarios.” He further explained that in the recent past, India and the world have witnessed rising cases of H1N1. “Keeping this and the high cost of imported kits in mind, an indigenous rapid testing kit has been developed by DRDO, which will not only lower the cost significantly but also reduce the testing time considerably,”.

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

t the Defexpo 2012, Rossell India Limited announced it has received approval from the Indian Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) to form a joint venture company with CAE to provide synthetic training solutions for the Indian defence market. Under terms of the shareholders agreement, Rossell India Limited will hold a 74 per cent share of the joint venture company with CAE holding a 26 per cent share. The objective of the joint venture will be to focus primarily on providing training solutions for defence procurements where India is acquiring foreign platforms. CAE has been active in the Indian market for the past 40 years, starting with the sale of simulators and now offering comprehensive training solutions for India’s civil aviation and defence markets. In early 2011, CAE officially inaugurated its new aerospace and defence complex in Bengaluru, where CAE India Pvt Ltd designs and develops training systems for India’s defence forces and CAE operates an engineering centre of excellence for the development of visual databases and other software components for CAE’s simulators. In addition, CAE trains pilots from India’s main airlines at CAE’s Bengaluru aviation training centre and jointly owns with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) the Helicopter Academy to Train by Simulation of Flying (HATSOFF), India’s first advanced helicopter training centre, located in Bengaluru.

he Italian defence major was represented at Defexpo 2012 by its group companies AgustaWestland, Alenia Aermacchi, DRS Tactical Systems, Inc. (a division of DRS Technologies), SELEX Galileo, Oto Melara and WASS, exhibiting products, platforms and technological solutions in the field of helicopters, aeronautics, radar systems, naval and land armaments and underwater systems. During our close interaction with the senior representatives of the company, we have been told that for Finmeccanica, India is a market of great strategic importance, where it can establish long-term partnerships involving the mutual exchange of technology and expertise. The establishment of the Group’s offices in India clearly represents the company’s increasing interest in the country and a step forward in the Group’s relations with local partners. In over 40 years of operations in India, Finmeccanica has supported the country in many of its pioneering development projects, supplying radar and communications systems, military and civil helicopters, civil aircraft and naval systems. The Group, which today has around 400 employees in the country, intends to consolidate its position in the highly competitive Indian market, facilitate government-to-government agreements (especially in aeronautics, electronics and defence systems) explore opportunities for collaboration with the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and increase its industrial presence in India.

hilst interacting with some of the world’s largest defence and security giants at the expo, our eyes also caught the Flying Tank premiere, where Russians unveiled new T90-MS in India.

Russian arms producers have presented the most up-to-date exportable version of the T-90 main battle tank to potential buyers. At the presentation where the producers of the T-90MS hoped to find buyers for the armoured fighting vehicle. The upgraded tank has improved capabilities in all aspects, “including firepower, protection, mobility and command ability,” said Andrey Terlikov, the chief designer of the T-90 at the Uralvagonzavod plant. The T-90MS is the latest modification of the combat vehicle dubbed the “flying tank”. We have been explained in detail by the representatives that this Tank has a new turret with the Kalina modernised targeting system, which is integrated with the squad commander’s control system. Also onboard are an upgraded 2A46M-5 cannon and a new air defence machine gun. The tank also has new version of the explosive reactive armour called Relict, as well as an improved gear shifter and better steering control. Its armour was modified to better withstand fire, though it is now slightly less resistant to the affects of a nuclear attack. The tank is also equipped with an auxiliary diesel engine that is meant to be used during stops. It allows for better fuel efficiency and produces less heat than the main engine, making the vehicle less noticeable in the infra-red spectrum. The T-90MS hit the domestic stage in September 2011, but the vehicle is yet to be taken to a foreign country. The producer hopes that India would be interested in upgrading the T-90 tanks it already owns into T-90MS versions. The presence of the improved T-90S is also being seen as Russia’s move to re-commit itself to the license build programme, considering that late last year reports had emerged of certain delays in the effort. India ordered 310 T-90S in 2001. A contract was concluded for the licensed production of 1,000 T-90S by the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB).

Conclusion Union Budget 2012-13, hiked the defence outlays to Rs. 1,93,407.29 crore (US$ 40.44 billion). This represents a significant growth of 17.63 per cent over the previous year ’s outlays – one of the highest increases in recent years excluding that for 2009-10 when the budget was increased by over 34 per cent, mostly to accommodate the pay hikes caused by the implementation of the recommendations of the Sixth Central Pay Commission. The increase in the latest defence budget was made plausible by the expansionary fiscal policy adopted

April 2012 Defence AND security alert

Organised by

by the government in general. According to the recent report released by the independent Stockholm-based International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), researching into conflicts, arms control and disarmament. India has topped a rating of the world’s largest heavy arms importers. According to the report, India is the largest arms recipient, accounting for 10 per cent of global arms imports between 2007 and 2011.

30 May-1 June 2012, Palace Grounds, Bengaluru

The significant increase in defence budget and the recent report and analysis shows that India is going to be a large and burgeoning market for defence and security products and technologies. The overwhelming and unprecedented participation by international defence industry giants from different parts of the world at the recently concluded Defexpo 2012 in Delhi indicates that India is paving the path of a steady growth and offering a lucrative market for defence products and cutting edge technologies.

BRAHMOS Indian Army Operationalises 2nd Regiment of BRAHMOS Missile

n advanced version of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile was successfully fired by the Indian Army at the Pokhran range of Rajasthan on March, 04, 2012. This was the 26th flight test of the BrahMos missile system.

Dr A Sivathanu Pillai the founder CEO and mentor of the most successful Joint Venture between India and Russia - “BrahMos Aerospace” recently in a seminar explaining the future plans of the JV has said that the air-version launches will start by this year end and the underwater launch of BRAHMOS will also take place soon making it a truly Universal weapon with launch capabilities from Land, Sea, sub-sea and Air. He has been dynamically leading the JV from one milestone to another from the date of incorporation in the year 1998. Naval Launches: On 30th November 2011 BRAHMOS missile has been tested successfully from Baltic Sea in the newly built frigate 1135.6 for the Indian Navy. This was followed by another launch on the 27th January 2012 from R-class of ship from eastern coast of India. BRAHMOS submarine Launch Version: BRAHMOS missile is capable of being launched from submarine from a depth of 40-50 metres. The missile is installed in a modular launcher vertically in the pressure hull of the submarine. The missile has identical configuration similar to the ship based system. The canisterised missile is launched vertically; the nose cap prevents water from entering the 'airintake' during the underwater flight. Once the missile emerges from the water, the sensors provide the “out of water command” and the nose cap is fired for turning the missile in the desired direction to hit the target. BRAHMOS installation in submarine will increase many folds the 'offensive power' of the vessel without compromising on its 'defensive power' as the torpedo tubes can be fully utilised for defence. All studies and simulation trials related to underwater launch have been completed. Land, Air And Sea: With the Indian Air Force placing an order for the ground based weapon complex and work in full swing for adaptation of BRAHMOS under Su-30MKI aircraft, BRAHMOS has become the only cruise missile to be used by all the three services of the Indian Armed Forces thus paving the path for network centric joint operations by the three forces in case of conflict. Hypersonic BRAHMOS: “The hypersonic version of the BrahMos, to be called BrahMos-II, is in its design and technological development stage. It will take some time to mature. But our aim is for it to touch Mach 5 to 7 speeds, making it the fastest cruise missile in the world," said Dr Pillai. The BrahMos Weapon Complex with its universality of operation, lethality of strike and accuracy of hit has become the most sought after weapon systems having the potential of providing the winning edge to its users – be they from Sea, Land or Air.

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