DSA August 2010 by Defence and Security Alert

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AUGUST 2010

VOLUME 1 ISSN

ISSUE 11

0976-206X

9 770976 206003

GLOBAL SECURITY

UN: role in peace and war SCO of and the new greatFake game Duty the Union Currency Chinese geopolitics Exclusive Interview: General Secretary NATO India: a superpower? Russian resurgence New technology coalitions

2 ST ES Z

I PR

N US . O C ULO No A AB ge S D IN F Pa W 68

editor-in-chief

mission The power of a King lies in his mighty arms… Security of the citizens at peace time is very important because State is the only saviour of the men and women who get affected only because of the negligence of the State.

—Chanakya

DSA is as much yours, as it is ours!

akistan has some serious problems within the country, which everyone reads about almost every other day. But Pakistan has even more serious political problems and which we don’t read about since they don’t come with suicide vests, or vehicles rigged with explosives. These are problems more serious than the scandal of fake degrees currently raging between legislators and the media. These are problems more serious than can be addressed by any international aid package. This is because these are problems that have plagued Pakistan since its birth and have nothing to do with money, faith, the excess, or lack, of both. These are problems that have been the creation of the peculiarities of psychology and its impact on Punjab. Well at least the western portion of Punjab, the one that forms the province in Pakistan. And the best enactment of these problems has been the recent public performance of the Pakistani Foreign Minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi. His tone, tenor, language and demeanour, caught India’s External Affairs Minister by surprise. Caught the whole atmosphere of IndoPak relations by surprise and seems to have injected a dose of dismay and pessimism in the mien of improving relations. The fault lies with India and the inability of its South Block leadership to understand the problems in Pakistan and play the game with psychology rather than the sophistry of North Block. The President of Pakistan surprised his country by signing along the 18th Amendment even when it curtails presidential powers, thus cementing his democratic credentials. Despite that he remains the object of ridicule and derision within the educated influential sections. The Prime Minister of Pakistan is a Makhdoom by inheritance and as with his ilk the principal challenge of the 21st century is to keep the flock numbers increasing. There are competitors and none more so than the Pakistani Foreign Minister, also a Makhdoom by inheritance and also from Multan, so the competition is really serious. More so when he thinks his educational and intellectual credentials are better than his Prime Minister. The catch here, however, is that arbiter of these gents’ fortunes is an entity that is not governed by votes, or the will of the people. It is General Headquarters Rawalpindi and in this case the Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Kayani specifically. He is up for an extension of his tenure and has let it be known that it won’t be asked for. The US / West has let it be known that they want one for him, so he needn’t ask directly. Some Pakistanis think he is good enough for an extension, for reasons that are military or non-military. The President has a call on this, as does the Prime Minister, constitutionally. Everybody expects it to happen and for a period of extraordinary longevity. Which basically means that the Chief is going to be around when the polity of Pakistan implodes as it does cyclically. Since Punjab is hurtling towards that political eruption, so hedging the bets has begun. Which is what the Pakistani Foreign Minister was doing through the talks with India and has been doing after as well. The Army is once again going to be the arbiter of political fate, so he has begun to sing the tune that sounds best to military ears. Even a fake degree would’ve shown the way to this analysis, so it is surprising that all the educated intelligent leaders and thinkers should harbour expectations from a dialogue process that is secondary to events underway in Pakistan. Regional security depends on it and there are global security concerns, but relations with India are best with an Army rider to them. Sooner India realises this straightforward fact better it is for its own nerves.

manvendra singh

August 2010 Defence AND security alert

announcement

publisher’s view

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disclaimer all rights reserved. reproduction and translation in any language in whole or in part by any means without permission from Defence And Security Alert is prohibited. opinions expressed are those of the individual writers and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher and / or editors. all disputes are subject to jurisdiction of delhi courts. defence and security alert is printed, published and owned by pawan agrawal and printed at graphic world, 1686, kucha dakhini rai, darya ganj, new delhi-110002 and published at 4/19 asaf ali road, new delhi (india). editor: manvendra singh

his was the Indian ethos long before the idea of India coalesced into its modern incarnation. This was, in essence, what the people of this land believed in - be it on its scattered periphery or at its central core. That is why its influence beyond the seas and across its land frontiers, seen in the spores of religious and cultural contacts, have not found acceptance by the force of the swordarm but by the appealing suasion of its logic and humanity.

August 2010

chairman shyam sunder publisher & ceo pawan agrawal editor-in-chief manvendra singh director shishir bhushan corporate consultant k j singh art consultant divya gupta central saint martins college of art & design, university of arts, london corporate communications monika kanchan marketing garvit gupta representative J&K salil sharma creative vivek anand pant correspondent (europe) dominika cosic production dilshad & dabeer photographers subhash, deepak circulation & distribution prem gupta ranjeet, sandeep, vikram systems vikas

VASUDHAIV KUTUMBAKAM : The entire world is our family

Today, we see developed countries propagating “Save Earth”, “Save Ozone Layer” and “Save Animals and Birds”. But it is so commiserable that no one says “Save Humanity”.

A N N O U N C E S SEPTEMBER 2010 ISSUE AS

What are we going to do of this Earth, Ozone layer, Animals and Birds with no Human beings left due to these many conflicts that currently afflict the world? We have already seen the mass havoc in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. In the clashes occurring simultaneously in several parts of the world we see that we have not yet learnt any lessons from Hiroshima and Nagasaki. We see the developed States competing for the latest armaments and technologies to equip themselves not to defend themselves but to frighten and subdue other peoples because of their natural resources. The atom - a boon for mankind and a source of infinite energy - is being stockpiled to destroy this beautiful world.

NUCLEAR SPECIAL

We have seen two World Wars which cost millions of human lives. Now we see new tragedies playing themselves out in Iraq and the Afghan-Pakistan salient where attempts to create new spheres of influence and dividing up geographical entities threaten to pawn the globe to the very forces that have made diabolic use of new ways of mass destruction.

Covering

We see the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation being set up as a bulwark against the eastwards spread of the militaristic North Atlantic Treaty Organisation even as new discoveries of natural wealth are made in strife-torn Afghanistan. China has proved its strength and impact on the world economy. Its role in global geopolitics is well known. It has undoubtedly proved its economic strength and is now trying to prove to be the superpower in the world. Russia still has unresolved problems as in Chechnya but there is no gainsaying its resurgence and reassertion of its geopolitical clout.

all its dimensions,

The US appears to have its hands full with juggling geopolitical hot potatoes in different parts of Asia within the Atlantic-Pacific ambience. Be it in Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan or Pakistan, the US is always involved either directly or indirectly through either NATO or UN and thus Washington seems to have the key to open all the locks in the region as a whole.

from all angles

Europe with its extraordinary past and cradle of two World Wars has produced some of the best brains. Though there have been conflicts within Europe but finally they have understood the importance of sovereignty and cooperation. Africa, one of the biggest continents is still struggling for development in all the fields of human endeavour. While there are a few pockets of affluence on the dark continent but most are afflicted by poverty and crime. India is the only State which has never tried to use its strength to threaten anyone. It has always tried its best to maintain harmony with all States, be it Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh or any other SAARC countries. Though India has tried to maintain cordial relations but Pakistan is always creating nuisance and problems to take advantage of India’s sobriety. Pakistan is one of the few States which have not progressed much in the last six decades, whereas India has marched ahead in all spheres. Next month India will be celebrating her 64th Independence day and on behalf of team DSA I salute each and everyone who have devoted their lives for independent India and who are committed for her independence and security today. This is the fifth special issue of DSA and I am very happy to share with you dear reader that it is your warm acceptance and response that has brought us where we are, enabling us to offer you a world-class magazine dedicated to making this world more safe and secure. JAI HIND!

August 2010 Defence AND security alert

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contents

GLOBAL SECURITY

ISSUE

AUGUST

2010

Volume 1 Issue 11 August 2010

A R T I C L E S

UN: role in peace and war Lt. Gen. (Retd.) V. K. Jetley

SCO and the new great game

Chinese geopolitics

Russian resurgence

Israel and the Arab world

Combating sea piracy

New world order: India's role

Indian Navy: new horizons

Aceh: the new nucleus

New technology coalitions

Brig. (Retd.) Dr. Anil Sharma

Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Dipankar Banerjee

Rahul Mishra and Rohit K. Mishra

European union-NATO Dominika Cosic

Dani Reshef

Vice Admiral (Retd.) Arun Kumar Singh

Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Dr. D. B. Shekatkar

Dr. Hari Saran

Dr. Pankaj Jha

Asymmetric and WMD threats Dr. Arvind Kumar

Cdr. (Retd.) Sunil Chauhan

Contemporary world: New paradigms

India: a superpower?

69 74

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F E A T U R E S

Exclusive Interview:

General Secretary NATO

Dominika Cosic

O T H E R S

Dr. Arpita Basu Roy

Jagdish Prasad Verma

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August 2010 Defence AND security alert

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UN:

MISE-EN-SCENE

Role in Peace and War T

he advancement of science and technology at the turn of the nineteenth century, saw development in various fields including in the field of Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). Military weapons like artillery, tanks and automatic weapons became better and better causing death and destruction on a large scale during the First World War. This highlighted the horrors of wars in all its grimness. People the world over started thinking of concrete steps to end the scourge of wars and to find ways and means to bring about peace and stability.

League of Nations Thus, in 1919, at the end of the First World War, the League of Nations came into existence. Its express aim was to prevent future wars. However, despite its best intentions the League of Nations could not achieve its lofty aim, mainly because it was strapped for resources and it did not have a Force of its own which could be used to implement its decisions. It was no surprise to anyone therefore when the League collapsed in 1939, just two decades after its inception. This, incidentally, was about the time that the Second World War broke out.

United Nations The United Nations or UNO as it was then called was born on 01 January 1942 when 26 nations who called themselves the Allied Forces, joined their forces to fight what they called the Axis Forces comprising Germany, Italy and

Japan. “They affirmed their belief that the anarchic nature of international relations had to be somehow controlled and ordered for lasting peace and stability to occur”. However the United Nations Charter was only drawn up at the end of the Second World War when representatives of 51 nations got together on 24 October 1945 and signed the same.

The basic aim of the United Nations as enunciated in the Charter is to “maintain international peace and security and to that end, take collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to peace and for the suppression of acts of aggression”. In simpler terms it can be translated into achievement and maintenance of world peace, promotion and development of good relations among all nations and working together with all nations to solve economic, social, cultural and humanitarian problems. The United Nations has six major Branches viz the General Assembly, the Security Council, the Secretariat, the Trusteeship Council, the Economic and Social Council and the International Court of Justice. And, while all these branches have separate and diverse roles, functions and duties to fulfill, they mesh their activities into a smooth whole to achieve the stated goal of achieving global peace.

Role The varied activities of the branches of the United Nations include activities

August 2010 Defence AND security alert

such as protection of human rights, fighting epidemics, combating poverty and famine, giving aid in the form of food, clothing and medicines and helping developing nations in the achievement of their goals by providing monetary loans from the World Bank.

Lt. Gen. (Retd.) V. K. Jetley

It will come as a surprise to many that in spite of hotspots around the globe, the UN has a 75 per cent success rate in peacekeeping. Yet even insiders admit that were it not for the threat of use of their veto powers by the Permanent Members of the UN Security Council the world body could have done a better job. Hopefully with reorganisation and the growing influence of the developing world the UN will not be hamstrung by these forceful five.

Diplomatic activities of the UN play an important role in the achievement of world peace. The UN has an agenda for peace, which was prepared by the then Secretary of the UN, Mr. Boutros Boutros Ghali in 1995 on the request of the Security Council. This basically analyses and recommends ways of strengthening and making more efficient within the framework of the Charter, the capacity of the UN for preventive diplomacy, peacemaking and peacekeeping. To this, the Secretary General added, in his wisdom, another dimension viz post-conflict peace building.

Dispute settlement Of the many activities undertaken by the UN, its peacekeeping activities have been more in the limelight than the others, yet, it may surprise many to know that there is no specific mention of peacekeeping in the Charter of the UN. However, much before the UN resorts to peacekeeping, it endeavours to settle the dispute peacefully. “ On the peaceful settlement of disputes, Article 33(1) of chapter VI of the Charter obliges parties in a dispute that is likely to endanger international peace and security to seek a solution to the dispute by ‘negotiation, inquiry, mediation,

August 2010 Defence AND security alert

global security

MISE-EN-SCENE

conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, resort to regional agencies or arrangements, or other peaceful means of their own choice. If any or all these diplomatic measures enumerated above fail to yield results, the Charter empowers the UN Security Council to resort to the use of armed forces to maintain or restore international peace and security.

Lack of troops Insofar as provision of troops is concerned, as per the recommendations of the Military Staff Committee, the bulk of the troops and equipment were required to be provided by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. However, due to differences of opinion, these recommendations never fructified and hence large scale deployment of troops was ruled out in the initial stages itself. This notwithstanding, small groups of unarmed military observers were deployed in Greece in 1947, in Palestine in 1948 and in India and Pakistan in1949. This was akin to laying of the seed for future peacekeeping operations. While initial missions were Observer missions, subsequent missions, especially where there were chances of the peace process being jeopardised by the antagonists, UN forces were deployed.

Preconditions Peacekeeping is politically impartial and essentially non-coercive, as it is only undertaken at the request of the countries in dispute. Its three guiding principles are: ■■

Consent of parties to the conflict.

■■

Impartiality of peacekeepers and

■■

Use of force in self defence only.

The standard UN procedures for the resolution of threats to international peace caused by inter-State or intraState conflicts is to first try to resolve the same through peaceful means using tact and diplomacy. If however these means fail, then it becomes imperative to resolve the problem by the use of minimum force. In worst case scenarios, the UN Security Council mandates the force to use deadly force when required under the provisions of Chapter VII of the Charter.

Joint operations In the initial years of peacekeeping UN forces operated independently based on the mandate given to it by the UN Security Council. However, as situations are becoming more and more complex, the UN has started operating in conjunction with regional organisations such as North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in Kosovo and Afghanistan, the African Union (AU) in Sierra Leone and Sudan, the European Union (EU) in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Misuse of veto The UN has been in existence for 65 years and has undertaken a phenomenal 63 peacekeeping operations. Yet in the first forty years from 1948 to 1988, upto the end of the Cold War, the UN had undertaken a meagre 13 peacekeeping operations. This was not because of paucity of troops and other resources, but due to the vested interests of the permanent members of the Security Council who used the threat of their veto powers to further their interests.

Spurt in peacekeeping From 1988 to 2010 i.e. over a period 22 years, the UN has launched a staggering 50 peacekeeping operations. This is a clear indication of the active interest taken by the UN in promoting and maintaining global peace. A list of the peacekeeping operations undertaken and their current status is given at Appendix ‘A’. A perusal of the same highlights the following important issues: ■■ That 47 of the 63 peacekeeping operations have been completed giving UN the success ratio of almost 75 per cent. ■■ Of the remaining 16 operations, 8 of them are of recent vintage and out of these 6 are on the African Continent. ■■ Peacekeeping operations are spread all over the globe, particularly the African Continent, West Asia,

August 2010 Defence AND security alert

Appendix A

List of UN Peacekeeping Operations: 1948 – 2010 Acronym

South Asia, SE Asia, Europe, CAR and Central America. Thus almost all the trouble spots of the globe are covered. ■■ Lastly, although it cannot be discerned from the appendix, it is pertinent to bring out that conflicts these days are more of the intra-State kind than of the inter-State kind which was the case in the early days of the UN.

The team There are presently 85,902 troops, 13,407 police personnel and 2,227 military observers deployed in the current missions. This takes the total to 101,536 personnel in uniform. Add to this the large number of civilian support staff and personnel from the other branches of the UN and you have a large number of personnel engaged in the task of bringing about global peace. Success of the UN in peacekeeping operations should not give the erroneous impression that the UN is not without its shortcomings. There is a growing school of thought that the UN should have done better than it has done so far.

The performance? In a Global Research Public Lecture delivered on 04 December 2009 at Montreal, Canada, by Dennis Halliday on the subject of “The United Nations’ Role in Peace and War”, Mr. Halliday, who has had a 34 years career with the UN and has been the Assistant Secretary General (ASG) and head of Humanitarian Programme in Iraq, has severely criticised the UN.

Mission name

UNTSO United Nations Truce Supervision Organisation UNMOGIP United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan UNEF I First United Nations Emergency Force UNOGIL United Nations Observation Group in Lebanon ONUC United Nations Operation in the Congo UNSF United Nations Security Force in West New Guinea UNYOM United Nations Yemen Observation Mission UNFICYP United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus DOMREP Mission of the Representative of the Secretary-General in the Dominican Republic UNIPOM United Nations India-Pakistan Observation Mission UNEF II Second United Nations Emergency Force UNDOF United Nations Disengagement Observer Force UNIFIL United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon UNGOMAP United Nations Good Offices Mission in Afghanistan and Pakistan UNIIMOG United Nations Iran-Iraq Military Observer Group UNAVEM I United Nations Angola Verification Mission I UNTAG United Nations Transition Assistance Group ONUCA United Nations Observer Group in Central America UNIKOM United Nations Iraq-Kuwait Observation Mission MINURSO United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara UNAVEM II United Nations Angola Verification Mission II ONUSAL United Nations Observer Mission in El Salvador UNAMIC United Nations Advance Mission in Cambodia UNPROFOR United Nations Protection Force UNTAC United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia UNOSOM I United Nations Operation in Somalia I ONUMOZ United Nations Operation in Mozambique UNOSOM II United Nations Operation in Somalia II UNOMUR United Nations Observer Mission Uganda-Rwanda UNOMIG United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia UNOMIL United Nations Observer Mission in Liberia UNMIH United Nations Mission in Haiti UNAMIR United Nations Assistance Mission for Rwanda UNASOG United Nations Aouzou Strip Observer Group UNMOT United Nations Mission of Observers in Tajikistan UNAVEM III United Nations Angola Verification Mission III UNCRO United Nations Confidence Restoration Operation in Croatia UNPREDEP United Nations Preventive Deployment Force UNMIBH United Nations Mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina UNTAES United Nations Transitional Administration for Eastern Slavonia, Baranja and Western Sirmium UNMOP United Nations Mission of Observers in Prevlaka UNSMIH United Nations Support Mission in Haiti MINUGUA United Nations Verification Mission in Guatemala MONUA United Nations Observer Mission in Angola UNTMIH United Nations Transition Mission in Haiti MIPONUH United Nations Civilian Police Mission in Haiti UN Civilian Police Support Group MINURCA United Nations Mission in the Central African Republic UNOMSIL United Nations Observer Mission in Sierra Leone UNMIK United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo UNAMSIL United Nations Mission in Sierra Leone UNTAET United Nations Transitional Administration in East Timor MONUC United Nations Organisation Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo UNMEE United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea UNMISET United Nations Mission of Support in East Timor UNMIL United Nations Mission in Liberia UNOCI United Nations Operation in Côte d'Ivoire MINUSTAH United Nations Stabilisation Mission in Haiti ONUB United Nations Operation in Burundi UNMIS United Nations Mission in Sudan UNMIT United Nations Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste UNAMID African Union-United Nations Hybrid Operation in Darfur MINURCAT United Nations Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad MONUSCO United Nations Organisation Stabilisation Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Start date Closing date May-48 Jan-49 Nov-56 Jun-58 Jul-60 Oct-62 Jul-63 Mar-64 May-65 Sep-65 Oct-73 Jun-74 Mar-78 May-88 Aug-88 Jan-89 Apr-89 Nov-89 Apr-91 Apr-91 Jun-91 Jul-91 Oct-91 Feb-92 Mar-92 Apr-92 Dec-92 Mar-93 Jun-93 Aug-93 Sep-93 Sep-93 Oct-93 May-94 Dec-94 Feb-95 May-95 Mar-95 Dec-95 Jan-96

Present Present Jun-67 Dec-58 Jun-64 Apr-63 Sep-64 Present Oct-66 Mar-66 Jul-79 Present Present Mar-90 Feb-91 Jun-91 Mar-90 Jan-92 Oct-03 present Feb-95 Apr-95 Mar-92 Mar-95 Sep-93 Mar-93 Dec-94 Mar-95 Sep-94 Jun-09 Sep-97 Jun-96 Mar-96 Jun-94 May-00 Jun-97 Jan-96 Feb-99 Dec-02 Jan-98

Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jun-97 Aug-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Jun-99 Oct-99 Oct-99 Nov-99 Jul-00 May-02 Sep-03 Apr-04 Jun-04 Jun-04 Mar-05 Aug-06 Jul-07 Sep-07 Jul-10

Dec-02 Jul-97 May-97 Feb-99 Dec-97 Mar-00 Oct-98 Feb-00 Oct-99 Present Dec-05 May-02 Jun-10 Jul-08 May-05 Present Present Present Dec-06 Present Present Present Present Present

August 2010 Defence AND security alert

global security

MISE-EN-SCENE

Quotes from his lecture bring out the anguish at the shortcomings of the UN as perceived by him. Mr. Halliday’s criticisms are many and largely justified. A few of these are given below: “Most of us want a UN set apart and

From 1988 to 2010 i.e. over a period 22 years, the UN has launched a staggering 50 peacekeeping operations.

Private club! “The second perception is the UN of the “Masters of the Universe”! The five veto powers and the permanent members of the Security Council, the so called victors of the Second World War. The old boys club of 1945. The five States that have corrupted the UN Charter. And corrupted the work of the UN. Applying double-standards and disregard for the law - they have made the organisation primarily serve their best interests rather than serve its mandate.”

This is a clear indication of

WHO suborned

the active interest taken by

“Perception number three is that the programmes, agencies, bodies of the UN do good work every day all over the world - when not instructed by the Masters of the Universe to do otherwise - such as the unwillingness of the World Health Organisation to deal honestly with the appalling dangers of the military usage of depleted Uranium - such as the ones used in Fallujah.

the UN in promoting and maintaining global peace distinct from the ugly politics of the G-8, the EU, NATO, US / UK and the wars illegally pursued by the UN member States such as the Congo, Chechnya, Gaza, Georgia, Iraq, Pakistan, Sudan, Afghanistan.”

Criticisms and praise for the good work done by the UN go hand in

August 2010 Defence AND security alert

hand. Notwithstanding both, it is my considered opinion that, despite the numerous constraints under which the UN works, it has been at the forefront of contributing to global peace. With reforms to its structure in the future which are inevitable considering the aspirations and the growing clout of the developing world, the UN is bound to be more effective and will be in a position to contribute even more gainfully to global peace.

The writer, a fourth generation officer, was commissioned into the Infantry in 1965. He retired as Master General of Ordnance, Army Headquarters. During 40 years service in the Indian Army he has held various prestigious command and staff appointments which include command of a Brigade deployed in the highest battlefield in the world, a division in the desert and a corps in active insurgency areas. He was UN Force Commander in Sierra Leone from November 1999 to October 2000. He executed the highly acclaimed "Operation Khukri" which broke the back of the rebels.

global security

India's contribution

global security

CENTRAL ASIA

A journey which began as a holding company of public sector steel manufacturers in 1973 with an authorised capital of Rs. 2,000 crore has today become a public sector giant and leading steel manufacturer in India with a turnover of Rs. 43,935 crore and production ranging from hot metal to highly specialised steel. SAIL is committed to extend its support to India’s Defence and Security by providing special steel for various important projects. Brig. (Retd.) Dr. Anil Sharma

"A MAHARATNA"

Mr. Chandra Shekhar Verma, 51, has taken charge of the office of Chairman, Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) on 11 June 2010. Team DSA welcomes the new Chairman and is confident that under his stewardship and able guidance SAIL will not only flourish but also excel in providing its best support to the Indian Defence and Security industry. The twin factors of low per capita steel consumption in our country and the surge in activity in the infrastructure, industrial, housing and automobile sectors are the drivers of demand for steel. It’s an opportunity that demands that SAIL repositions itself to maintain its leadership status. Global player: It’s time SAIL sets its sights on becoming a global player. Inorganic approaches for growth can be adopted especially for input assets acquisition in the value chain. Input security is a must in the company’s quest for continued success. Expansion projects: SAIL is on the path of strengthening its foundations for the future. There is a need to ensure that the investments being made and expansions to be realised are on track. Value-added products: For SAIL to emerge as a niche producer of quality steel of the highest standards there is a need to enhance significantly the share of value-added steel in the total product mix. SAIL needs to enhance the share of their branded products in their offerings and also move up the value chain. Technology: There is an urgent need to fast track SAIL’s product development and use advanced technologies for enhancing value addition, diversification and productivity enhancement. Cost competitiveness: The cost advantage that SAIL enjoys in comparison with its competitors in terms of captive iron ore must be leveraged. New markets: Traditional market segments like construction, railways, power would need to be serviced better and at the same time there is a need to refocus on opportunities in segments like white goods, defence, automobile and space. People initiatives: At the end of the day, SAIL is really about its people—committed, talented, passionate employees who want to create, do something meaningful and lasting, realise their full potential, make a positive impact in their area of work. It was a result of concerted and collective action that during the calendar year 2009 that SAIL emerged with second highest net profit amongst all steel companies of the world, though being eighteenth in volume terms. In January 2010, SAIL’s overall ranking was two in the ‘World-class Steelmaker Rankings’ by World Steel Dynamics, a steel consulting and research firm based in the United States. (SAIL was ranked at 17 in this list in June, 2007). SAIL had the unique distinction of receiving four awards from Hon’ble Prime Minister, which was highest amongst all PSUs. Once again, in 2009, maximum number of Shram and Vishwakarma Awards amongst both private and public sector organisations were won by SAIL. SAIL has been recently accorded the status of “Maharatna” by the Government of India and is currently preparing for divestment of 10 per cent of its equity in two tranches and is implementing a Rs. 60,000 crore modernisation and expansion plan in its plants and mines. With Mr. Verma at its helm and his vast knowledge and long experience in support, SAIL is poised to scale greater heights.

SCO and the new

Great Game

The Central Asian landmass lends itself to intervention by neighbours on its periphery. That is exactly what is happening except that at the moment it is benign, economics and energy-access oriented. It wasn’t that way after the withdrawal from Afghanistan of Soviet troops north of the Oxus (Amu Darya). The perceived vacuum was sought to be filled by Islamic fundamentalism nurtured in Pakistan and that may yet repeat itself if the US mismanages its departure from Afghanistan. China professes a disgust for one of the three “evils” – terrorism – but it has not been averse to its export by Pakistan to all corners of the globe. August 2010 Defence AND security alert

global security

CENTRAL ASIA

he Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is an intergovernmental international organisation founded in Shanghai on 15 June 2001 by six countries China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Its member States cover an area of over 30 million km, or about three fifths of Eurasia, with a population of 1.455 billion, about a quarter of the world’s total. The SCO has a broad and diverse framework for mutual cooperation. It extends from joint political vision, territorial harmony, non-traditional threats to regional security, to coordinate approaches to integration into the global economy; to promote human rights and fundamental freedoms in accordance with the international obligations of the member States and their national legislation; External Relations - to maintain and develop relations with other States and international organisations; to cooperate in the prevention of international conflicts and in their peaceful settlement; to jointly search for solutions to the problems that would arise in the 21st century.

Imported evils Over the 13 years since its inception, the SCO has matured into a full-fledged organisation. This period has also seen China’s expansion in Central Asia. Under the banner of “three evils” of extremism, secessionism and terrorism China was able to get full support of SCO member States in its fight against Uighur militant groups in its western Xinjiang province and demilitarise and secure its western frontiers. Criteria for expansion by inducting new members has been approved in June 2010 Summit at Tashkent. The Council of National Coordinators has now been asked to prepare a standard Memorandum and other documents regulating legal, organisational and financial aspects of the membership to the Organisation for entering States. India and Pakistan were likely to be made members. However, the issue appears to have been postponed due to China’s position as also behind the scene US diplomatic overture to dissuade India, which is evident from Indian Prime Minister skipping the summit and also low coverage of the event in Indian media. In future,

Afghanistan and Turkmenistan may also join SCO.

Vulnerabilities The SCO faces quite a few formidable vulnerabilities / challenges while considering the trends of the Great Game reinventing itself in Central Asia. The existing regimes in SCO strive by hook or by crook to stay in power and try to pursue a multi vector policy albeit below Russia’s threshold. Russia on the other hand favours status quo with the existing regimes and does not hesitate to adopt pressure tactics to keep them in its orbit. The Chinese have little interest in the domestic policies of the Central Asian regimes. China demonstrates utmost pragmatism by doing business with regime of the day. Beijing is not encouraging them to be autocratic and would not be disturbed if they become democratic. But, like the rest of the SCO member States, the leadership in Beijing believe that security threats come from groups with alien (read extremist) ideologies and are not produced as a result of the domestic policies (and in particular the human rights abuses) of the governments themselves. This viewpoint, which is considered as virtually definitional in the national capitals of SCO States is obviously, wholly antithetical to the views held by the US government and by leading governments in other European States. The western countries espouse the cause of democracy and human rights but cut corners, if required, in national interests. They thought colour revolution is the way forward. For the west, theocratic communist China and autocratic democracy like Russia are also non-democratic but accept them as a fait accompli.

Demography Uzbekistan has a population of about 30 million (Wikipedia), which is more than the population of all other Central Asian republics put together. Russia’s population is also steadily declining and by 2030 its population is expected to be half of Pakistan. Even its military-industrial complex is in decline with the gradual decrease in China’s dependence on it. It has large unemployed labour. On this count therefore, the region does not carry much weight or influence. Migration issue is complicated and contentious.

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China and Kazakhstan have signed a deal to rent 7,000 hectares of the latter’s land for 10 years. Some 3,000 Chinese farmers have moved into the land, to grow soybeans and wheat. Alakol in Kazakhstan is vast in area but sparsely populated. It needs additional hands to further develop its agricultural industry. There are unconfirmed reports that China has bought huge tracts of land in Kyrgyzstan. The exact size and nature of the objective is not known. There is lack of mutual trust, particularly among local populace

Intra-regional problems The Central Asian countries seek closer relations with the US, Russia and China. But they are constantly engaged in mutual acrimony. Except Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, water is scarce. There is competition over sharing of water.

a source of ongoing tension and a potential base for resurgence of Islamic radicals. Concept of nationalism has remained weak in the region due to predominance of loyalty to clan / sub-clan / tribe at the expense of the nation State. The countries are run by authoritarian elites of Soviet era. Lack of political pluralism and scope for political dissent has led to increasing frustration within the populace. The future of Islamic Radicalism in Central Asia is not only dependent on external factors like Afghanistan but also on how the regimes themselves improve the socioeconomic condition of the people and enable them to be stakeholders in the

three are located in Kazakhstan while two are in Uzbekistan.

China benefits

States have increased at an average annual growth rate of 30 per cent – from US$ 12.1 billion in 2001 to US$ 67.5 billion in 2008.

The SCO was established to create the free trade zone on the territories of its members, although there has been slow progress. As compared to trade of about US$ 10 billion with the three superpowers, intra-regional trade was under US$ 500 million in 2003. Intraregional trade had declined from 13 per cent in 1995 to 6 per cent in 2002 as a proportion of total trade. But diversified and integrated efforts are being made to achieve this end goal. In 2009, the investment amongst SCO members surged to US$ 15 billion,

Economic surge

covering mainly oil and gas exploration, transportation, telecommunication, electricity, chemical industry, construction material, project contract and agriculture.

obstacles for trade stand removed, it is in addition generating funding for investment in the development projects particularly for building infrastructure such as roads and railways. Procedures for banking operations among memberStates have been simplified, these are converting the organisation into a sort of economic club.

The levels of imports-exports among the SCO member States are picking up. The trade of machinery and electronic products, high-tech goods and wellknown brand products are on the rise. According to the Chinese custom department (2006), trade between China and other five SCO members hit US$ 37 billion in 2005. The economic cooperation is gaining regional multilateral dimensions. Many

Electricity generation and sharing is another contentious issue. Kazakhstan has imposed tariff and non-tariff barriers against Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan has imposed similar barriers against Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Kazakhstan interdicts the movement of passenger trains from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan through its territory to Russia. Uzbekistan objects to the passage of Uzbek gas through Kazakh territory to Tajikistan.

Taliban effect The people of the region follow a tolerant form of Islam in which nomadic beliefs and culture suitably blend with tenets of Sufi strand of Islam and lingering influence of communism. The events in Afghanistan have impacted Tajikistan, Kyrgyztan and Uzbekistan the most. The Islamic fundamentalists and militant organisations such as East Turkistan Party and Hizbut-Tehrir, Uighur separatists and Chechen fighters are propagating the virulent Wahabi brand of Islam. The cadres of these radical organisations have developed close links with Al Qaeda and Pak ISI. The densely populated Fergana valley, which was historically one unit, was partitioned between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. This led to the presence of numerous enclaves of one country in the other which continues to be

political process and governance of the country.

Nuclear risks Around 13.6 per cent of the world’s uranium fields are located in the five CAR countries. Kazakhstan has 74 uranium deposits, Kyrgyzstan has four, Tajikistan has two, Turkmenistan has three and Uzbekistan has 35. However, fissile material producing facilities are located only in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Of the total 66 facilities that existed in the former Soviet Union,

In order to promote trade and economic cooperation among SCO members, China pledged US$ 10 billion during the recent summit. According to official data of the Chinese finance ministry China’s actual investment in the other five SCO members totalled US$ 8 billion last year. Trade volumes between China and the other member

Inter-linkages There is growing accent on developing transport grids. Efforts are being made for improving north-south

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CENTRAL ASIA

corridor and an energy grid corridor to link Russia to South Asia via Iran. Efforts are also being made to improve air communications across the SCO region. The UNDP has contributed funds for the Silk Road Regional Programme under the UNDP-SCO partnership programme. Multi dimensional integration with Russia and China under SCO Charter is underway. Infrastructure and pipeline construction is moving steadily. Energy

Until 2012, the United States, China and Russia are not likely to conduct mutually hostile policies in Central Asia because they share a common interest in fighting terrorism and maintaining stability in the region. The US wants to retain military access to the region for purposes of combating terrorism and economic access to ensure it can participate in the energy competition in Central Asia and resource competition is within non-conflictual limits. Ripple effect and locally bred Islamic radicalism is under reasonable control. SCO States are trying to resolve domestic issues through negotiations and increasing trust. Overall, clearly the activities of SCO have moved much beyond narrow focus of counter terrorism to a much more inclusive agenda encompassing infrastructure, trade, demographics, counter terrorism, narcotics, regional security etc. Regimes can be said to be somewhat stable, though vulnerable particularly to the turbulent dynamics

of reinvented Great Game looming on the skyline.

Great Game matrix It is becoming increasingly evident that despite prospects of US / NATO forces’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, jockeying for geopolitical power in Central Asia will continue. Reconfirmation of the presence of immense mineral wealth provides yet another indication. In fact the timing of the report may have been part of reaffirmation of the future interests design. Only difference from the past will be that US interests could get pitted against collaborative SCO interests as a somewhat loosely defined regional organisation.

Energy Competition The competition over energy resources will remain the key driver. Central Asian Republic States are dependent on other countries for transportation of oil / gas through pipelines. Russia currently seems to have a clear edge in future energy situation in the region, having tied up longterm energy deals with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Westwards flow of oil and gas in significant quantities, bypassing Russian territory, depends on the completion of the Trans Caspian pipeline from either Kazakhstan or Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan. This, however, appears unlikely till the settlement of the Caspian Sea dispute. The dark horse in the race appears to be China, which has commenced construction of pipelines from both Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to link up with Xinjiang. It has also signed long-term gas supply deals with Turkmenistan and is aggressively scouting for acquisition of oil and gas companies in Central Asia. The proposed projects, when operationalised would create a ChinaCentral Asia hub of oil and gas at the expense of Russia. Such developments are likely to bring the intrinsic fault lines in Russia China relationship to the fore.

Source of tension Energy competition will be driven by the competition amongst conflicting interests of the players. US / NATO desire westward flow

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towards Mediterranean via Turkey / Azerbaijan. Iran would also like a piece of the westward flow by turning it in southwest direction for its own use. Russia would prefer northwest flow, to enable it to purchase energy from CAR States at lower price and sell to Europe at higher price along with its own energy. China wants eastward flow across the Chinese mainland to the Pacific Ocean. To a large extent an opening to the south to the warm waters of Indian Ocean will provide majority of CAR States a much larger and shorter access to these countries as also remove their dependence on two large and overbearing neighbours. India and South Asia would also prefer southward flow. Fault lines of strategic competition are inherent in the diverse interests of the players.

Islamic radicalism None of the players want spread of the above vulnerabilities outward from / into the region. Success of Taliban in Afghanistan would provide an impetus to the Islamic fundamentalists and terrorist movement in these countries. Outwardly the CAR, US, Russia and China all proclaim Islamic radicalism as a common challenge. But, in practice endeavours and cooperation to meet this challenge are coloured by competing politico-economic interests.

Military diplomacy The US, Russia and China use military diplomacy and posturing as an instrument to achieve their security and economic interests. Establishment of military alliance and acquisition of bases in the region forms part of this endeavour. The CAR States themselves have tried to balance the competing interests of these players in consonance with their own aims. NATO: The US is using North Atlantic Treaty Organisation as a tool to build up relations with the CAR States and wean them away from Russian influence. NATO conducts a number of training events for the security personnel of Central Asia training them to counter terrorism, drug trafficking and nuclear proliferation under Programme for Peace (PFP). The most notable NATO event is the conduct of series of annual joint exercises named Steppe Eagles.

CSTO: Collective Security Treaty Organisation comprises of Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus and Armenia. Its Collective Rapid Reaction Forces (CRRF) conduct annual training exercises called Southern Shield. These are primarily aimed at tackling the threat of terrorism and potential intrusions of Islamic militant groups from Afghanistan. SCO: Shanghai Cooperation Organisation encompasses the farreaching agenda, which includes issues like security, terrorism, separatism, extremism and economic cooperation. There is fundamental difference in the Russian and Chinese approach to these issues. Russia views the SCO along with CSTO, primarily as a military tool to regain its influence in the region and to counter expansion of NATO.

Competing geo-strategies SCO States form the Eurasian land bridge through which great powers have tried to manifest their geostrategic ambitions historically. It is no different now. Europe through NATO seeks insulation from Islamic radicalism, nuclear risks, narco-proliferation and energy security. China is seen as an aggressive economic player with ambitions of cornering energy resources and developing silk routes to link with markets in Europe. It has promoted

Russia also finds its western flank and backyard vulnerable. It is trying to counter through aggressive policies in Caucasus region, playing hardball energy strategy with Europe, leverage with Iran and SCO. Interestingly, majority of CAR States are following balancing and multi-vector strategies. Yet their current approach mixes balancing and accommodating strategic interests, ‘bandwagoning’ or passing the buck, depending on respective political and economic interests.

China, on the other hand is focusing on the economic aspects and is using the SCO to foster economic integration of western China with the region, exploit alternate sources of energy, build transportation corridors to West Asia and Europe, ensure support of its neighbours for curbing the activities of Uighur separatists. To CAR States however, the SCO provides an opportunity to pursue their multivector policy. The most notable feature of the SCO is the conduct of Peace Mission series of exercises conducted every two years with NATO countries.

Military bases Establishment of military bases in the region is the most visible part of the profile of military posturing. In the wake of 9/11, first time in the history the US established military base in the backyard of Russia and at the strategic threshold of China. The subsequent events did not augur well for the US resulting in its withdrawal from military bases in Uzbekistan. Presently US have one air base located at Manas (Kyrgyzstan). Russia has two; one each at Kant (Kyrgyzstan) and Dushanbe (Tajikistan). Germany has one at Karsi (Uzbekistan) and French airbase is located at Dushanbe. US have been trying to gain access to airbases in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan without avail due to Russian pressure on the host countries.

the idea of SCO Common Market but there are not many takers. China perceived itself to be concircled as it now faces US military presence around its north-eastern (the Korean Peninsula), south-eastern (the Philippine Islands, Singapore and the US military commitment to Taiwan) and its western (Afghanistan) fronts. It is trying to counter this through String of Pearls strategy for securing energy flow, tying down US in Iran, North Korea, as also securing its periphery. China competes with US for strategic space in Pakistan. China (also Russia) is comfortable with prolonged US / NATO involvement in Af-Pak region, provided they do not make further inroads into Central Asia. China is actively trying to expand its strategic space in Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar at the expense of India.

Indian interest A strong India-SCO relationship augurs well for India’s strategic, energy and cultural interests and opens up greater opportunities for both entities. SCO is gradually realising its ambitious economic integration agenda, including formation of a free-trade zone and setting-up rules for the free movement of goods, services and technologies within SCO member States. India joining SCO would make it a preferred customer for the energy resources of Kazakhstan and Russia. Both SCO and India view Afghanistan-Pak region as a crucial strategic and anti-terrorist challenge. India is a major donor for the reconstruction and assistance programmes in Afghanistan, while SCO States are involved on the ground

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CENTRAL ASIA

work to develop roads, electricity and other energy projects. Government of Afghanistan also wants closer co-operation with SCO as well as with India. India could act as a swing State in conjunct with Russia to checkmate China dominating the forum, particularly the smaller States. Most unusually, India and Pakistan joining SCO may prove game changer in the mid and long term in their mutual relations and also geostrategic power balance.

Emerging dynamics May 2010 saw Russia’s reassertion in the SCO region when pro-Russian forces took control of Kyrgyzstan. Opposition forces in Kyrgyzstan have long held protests, especially since the Tulip Revolution in 2005 (US inspired) that had brought President Kurmanbek Bakiyev to power, who has now been toppled. The country has no economy or strategic resources to speak of and is highly dependent on all its neighbours for foodstuffs and energy. But it does have a valuable geographic location. The Tien Shan mountains, a range that divides Central Asia from South Asia and China. Nestled within these mountains is the Fergana Valley, home to most of Central Asia’s population due to its arable land and the protection afforded by the mountains. The Fergana Valley is the core of Central Asia. Soviets had strategically divided it among themselves - Uzbekistan getting the valley floor, Tajikistan getting the entrance and Kyrgyzstan the surrounding mountains thus enabling it to dominate the valley without its economic riches. The Kyrgyz location in the Tien Shan also gives Kyrgyzstan the ability to monitor Chinese moves in the region.

Kyrgyzstan’s pre-eminence Given its strategic location, control of Kyrgyzstan offers the ability to pressure Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and China and also allows access to Afghanistan. Kyrgyzstan is thus a critical piece in Russia’s overall plan to resurge into its former Soviet sphere. This year, Russia has signed economic agreements to reintegrate Kazakhstan and Belarus. New government elected in Ukraine is visibly pro-Russian. This is followed by coup in Kyrgyzstan.

Soon after the new provisional government taking over the inclination of the new regime became evident. In May, a tax dispute broke out that briefly interrupted air operations at Manas. Under previous basing agreements, the United States and its contractors were exempt from paying taxes and duties on fuel imports. But without warning, the Kyrgyz interim government revoked the tax-exempt status for Manas fuel suppliers. This put not only the Manas base but the fuel supply to Afghanistan under great stress, thus showcasing the Russian leverage. Ostensibly the fuel contractors had links with sons of Bakiyev. Interestingly, this was soon followed by the gory violence breaking out in southern Kyrgyzstan, which is again being traced back to pro-US Bakiyev elements. Was it some sort of warning to the new regime? Recent reports indicate that people have gone in for a democratic regime as per the results of the referendum and fuel supply dispute is all but sorted out. This is a demonstrable example of the dynamics of the Great Game reinventing itself.

Indian footprint Ayni air base in Tajikistan was supposed to become a showpiece for India. In the mid-2000s, India’s military began renovating runways, hangars and other facilities. Reports in the media suggested that India hoped to base a squadron of MiG-29 fighter jets there, in an effort to bolster its political clout in Central Asia and to create a counterweight to Pakistani influence in Afghanistan. Some analysts said India’s foray into base politics was motivated by a desire to play the role of great power. Despite the high costs of maintaining such a base, India appears to want to keep the question of its presence at Ayni open. India’s president, Pratibha Patil, visited Dushanbe last year, an indicator to both Indian and Tajik experts that India was still trying to court Tajikistan. Moreover, with US withdrawal coming closer and US support veering more towards Pakistan’s interests at the cost of Indian interests, staring in the face of Indian decision makers, the Ayni base offers alternative regional options in conjunct with other regional players like Iran, CAR States and Russia and even China / USA.

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There has been speculation that the United States, facing continuing uncertainty over the use of the Manas air base in Kyrgyzstan, might be interested in Ayni as a possible replacement. The Tajikistan government would allow US forces to use Ayni at the right price, said a senior Tajik official. “If the government gets more for it than the Americans pay for Manas, they’ll be interested,” he said. “It’s a market.” India then needs to move fast and with surety.

UN and CSTO Nikolai Bordyuzha, the secretarygeneral of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), announced in March that the Russia-dominated security group and the United Nations would henceforth cooperate in countering terrorism, transnational crime (including illegal arms trafficking) and in settling conflicts. This declaration has far-reaching implications for Central Asia, given that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are CSTO members. For one, it signifies raising the UN profile in Central Asia. Not only is the UN prepared to recognise and work with the CSTO, it is also prepared to work with Central Asian governments on a variety of issues, including water management. The UN secretary-general emphasised that the agreement with the CSTO signified recognition of the UN’s authority and ability to contribute to global security. More broadly it marked a big step in its efforts to cooperate with regional security organisations. It also represents the first international recognition of the CSTO, outside of its own members, as a regional player.

NATO rivalry This is a very important point because the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation has so far refused to offer the CSTO such recognition. NATO’s reasons for not recognising the CSTO are self-evident. Russia’s goal has all along been to create an organisation that it would dominate and which could then speak authoritatively on behalf of Central Asian States to NATO and other such organisations. In effect, it would circumscribe the sovereign rights of other member States on matters of self-defence and defence policy. UN recognition of the

CSTO can and probably will be seen in Moscow as constituting the UN’s acknowledgement of Russia’s role as Central Asia’s security manager. Beyond this important geopolitical point, there are significant operational and military considerations involved. The new accord calls for the broadening of UNCSTO cooperation, “taking into account the respective spheres of competence and procedures of either organisation.” Should an international peace operation (whether peace-keeping, or peace enforcement) be needed in Central Asia or Afghanistan, Moscow seems intent of guaranteeing that the CSTO has a pride of place and leads the operation in question. If Russia succeeds in securing such a guarantee, it might, under the right circumstances, try to establish such an operation without waiting for a formal UN resolution authorising it to act. In such a situation, the Kremlin would doubtless stand on the agreement with the UN, claiming that it authorises the CSTO to act within its sphere of competence. Such a role for CSTO in Central Asia also runs contrary to the Chinese geopolitical aspirations trying to play the game through the SCO. A rift between China and Russia on this score is bound to come up at some stressful moment.

Mazar-i-Sharif complex The US Department of Defense is planning to build a Special Operations complex just 56 kilometers from the Uzbek-Afghan border, which will be constructed over 17.3 acres near Mazari-Sharif in northern Afghanistan. The facility is expected to cost between US$ 25 million and US$ 100 million and is based on US Central Command’s “Integrated Global Presence, Basing Strategy and Master Plan.” The complex should be operational by late 2011 or early 2012. The proposed overseas facilities are vital to support “ongoing operations. Construction of airfield and airfield support facilities is also envisioned.” In June, CENTCOM also launched a number of solicitations for smaller projects in Central Asia, including border checkpoints in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and

Kyrgyzstan and training facilities in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where US troops will train and equip local security forces. The US unit will also “be prepared to conduct foreign internal defence and security forces assistance to assist partner

nations improve their ability to provide for their own security in Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan,”

for purposes of combating terrorism and economic access to ensure it can participate in the energy competition in Central Asia. All three powers are too important in various ways to each other for any of them to upset their bilateral or trilateral relations in Central Asia. From the US standpoint, the most urgent and important issue in Central Asia is to fight terrorism.

The Pentagon thus appears set to spend over US$ 40 million on security infrastructure projects in Central Asia. The money for the building spree will come from US Central Command’s counter-narcotics fund. Pentagon dollars will go towards the construction of military training centers in Osh, Kyrgyzstan and Karatog, Tajikistan and also a canine training facility and helicopter hangar near Almaty, Kazakhstan. In addition, the Pentagon will fund border-crossing checkpoints in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and refurbish existing border outposts in Kyrgyzstan.

Future prognosis Considering the complicated situation of the region, any US administration will prefer not to turn Central Asia into an arena of sharp conflict near future, given America’s deep involvement in the reconstruction of Afghanistan and Iraq

At the same time, its peace and security challenges are multi-dimensional and tremendous in magnitude. SCO has been reasonably successful in tackling the security challenges. Its effectiveness is still growing. Interests of major world powers clash in CAR region. Hence geostrategic competition dynamics will remain in full play in times to come.

The writer is Director-SA in the University of Petroleum and Energy Systems, Dehra Dun, Honorary Joint Director at Institute of National Security Studies, New Delhi and Senior Research Fellow with Forum for Strategic and Security Studies, New Delhi. He is a former head of the Office of Net Assessment in the MoD.

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INTERVIEW

ATO General Secretary Mr. Anders Fogh Rassmusen talks to DSA correspondent (Europe) Dominika Cosic. DSA: Mission in Afghanistan is more and more difficult for NATO, every day we are losing soldiers. Could you explain why NATO should keep their troops in Afghanistan? Mr. Anders Fogh Rassmusen: I think there are two strong reasons to contribute to our mission and to stay in Afghanistan: security and solidarity. First security. We are in Afghanistan to protect this country once again from terrorism. We know that terrorists who attacked USA on 11 of September 2001 were rooted in Af-Pak region. And terrorism could easily spread from Afghanistan, through Central Asia to Russia and other countries. It can also hit European cities. So it is a threat not only to Europe and USA. In addition to that, there is also a risk that terrorists operating in Afghanistan can destabilise the neighbouring countries as Pakistan which is a nuclear power and that would be a very dangerous situation. And it is a problem for all of us. Don’t forget also that Afghanistan is the main supplier of heroin. Drugs are a problem for everybody. We have common interest to stabilise society in Afghanistan. And to reduce drugs production. We should remind ourselves that after attacks on 11 of September NATO decided for the first time in its history that attack on USA, one of the member States, should be considered as an attack on Alliance. That is why NATO is supporting this operation which is a solidarity mission. When one ally is attacked, others should answer. DSA: But it’s already been nine years since the beginning of the mission. How long should NATO be there? Mr. Anders Fogh Rassmusen: I understand very well that people are impatient, so am I. We want to see clear progress and I am sure that this year we will see it. 2009 has been a difficult year but now we are taking a lot of important decisions. We have decided to increase the number of foreign troops significantly - actually 40,000 and to increase a number of Afghan soldiers and police. We have decided to hand over responsibility for security to Afghans and to establish training

I General Secretary n t e r v i e w mission to train and educate Afghan soldiers. In addition to it international community has committed themselves to increase development and President Karzai has also committed himself to better government and to fight with drugs producers and corruption. We have started transition process and all these elements contribute to this process. So I am optimistic. DSA: But some of the experts are very skeptical, they consider this mission as a failure of NATO, there is no solidarity even within the Alliance. Mr. Anders Fogh Rassmusen : I don’t agree. Actually we have been quite successful in getting contributions from our Alliance partners. There is strong solidarity. After Obama’s decision to increase number of troops (American soldiers) other 26 countries did the same, now there are 40,000 additional troops. It is strong commitment and

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NATO

real solidarity. DSA: 60 years ago when NATO was created situation was clear, we knew who was enemy of Alliance. What is the status now and who is the enemy? Mr. Anders Fogh Rassmusen: You are right that NATO has been the most successful defence Alliance the world has ever seen and most peaceful movement because we came through Cold War without any single shot fired when Warsaw Pact collapsed and several countries joined NATO and NATO has reunited Europe. But unfortunately now we have seen new dangers and we have terrorism not only in Afghanistan. There is for example question of cyber security, some Alliance members have experienced cyber attacks. Without soldiers crossing borders it can devastate and destabilise a country. We have to make sure that we can defend ourselves from this

Interview Dominika Cosic

risk. Proliferation of nuclear weapons and delivery of it – we have to protect ourselves against that. That is the reason why we need missile defence. I have mentioned only few new threats and this will be core element in the new strategic concept. Core function of NATO will still be territorial defence of member States and their population. This was the foundation of NATO 61 years ago and will always be. DSA: And 5th paragraph will still play an important role in the New Strategic Concept? Mr. Anders Fogh Rassmusen: Yes, indeed it will have prominent role in the New Strategic Concept. One for all, all for one. DSA: Can you imagine that Russia will one day become new member country?

Mr. Anders Fogh Rassmusen: It’s hard to imagine but in principle it is not impossible. Article 10 in the NATO treaty says that any European country may be invited to join NATO. This country should contribute to security in Europe and America and should respect the principles of NATO. Russia is a European country. Russia could apply and then we will see if it is fulfilling criteria. But honestly I don’t think that Russia will apply for membership so we should be more realistic. And my intention is to develop partnership between Russia and NATO because I think that it is in our common interest to reduce tension between NATO and Russia.

DSA: But new strategic concept of Russia does not reduce this tension.

I was also surprised to read in new Russian military doctrine that NATO is the first foreign and security danger. Honestly speaking I don’t understand it and it is not reflecting real situation. NATO is not an enemy of Russia and is not directed against Russia and has no intention to attack this country. But if you start to read this document there it also says that Russia should develop partnership with NATO. So there are two different statements. I also think that Russia should take into consideration that some of member countries are very much concerned about rhetoric and also their actions like aggression against Georgia or the fact that it has recently conducted comprehensive military exercises near the border with, for instance, Poland. And it is understandable that these actions raise number of concerns. In conclusion we know that we will still have disagreement with Russia, dispute, but there is area where we share security concerns with Russia and we share cooperation. DSA: Those exercises have been like provocation and there was no clear reaction from NATO. Mr. Anders Fogh Rassmusen: No, because we have monitored, followed exercises carefully and not considered them as a threat against any Alliance member. For anybody. But I can assure you that we monitor this and also that NATO has all necessary plans to protect and defend any Alliance. DSA: When do you expect New Strategic Concept? Mr. Anders Fogh Rassmusen: I do hope that it will be ready for next NATO summit which will take place in November, 2010 in Lisbon. There are already some ideas proposed by our experts and now we are working on it.

Mr. Anders Fogh Rassmusen: No.

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dominion global policy, are other determining factors.

The rise of China is no flash in the pan. It has been engineered with great political thought with futurism in its every nuance. The neutralisation of its periphery has been a constant theme and it can no longer be denied that with the Pacific Ocean rim nations practically eating out of Chinese hands, Beijing is heading for the ‘heartland’ it sees to its west.

eopolitics as a term was coined in the early years of the 20th Century by Rudolf Kjellén, a Swedish political scientist. But, it was popularised a few years later by Sir Halford Mackinder’s famous “Heartland Theory”. Mackinder emphasised geography as the critical factor determining politics and his ideas of the Eurasian landmass as the ‘core’ and the peripheral territories as the ‘rimland’, the control over which would determine global dominance, prevailed for some time. This shaped world thinking for an entire era and led to the ‘Great Game’ for control over these spaces. Mackinder’s theory also challenged the US Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan’s idea of the sea as the principal determining factor in global politics and countered his propagation of “sea-power” as the route to global dominance.

Hinterland control The

contention

between

great

powers and aspiring great powers has through history, been for control over territory, resources and important geographical positions, such as ports and harbours, canals, river systems, oases and other sources of wealth and influence. This kind of contestation has been the driving force that shaped world politics. Japan’s articulation of the Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere led to the Second World War in Asia. Even as we proceed with the 21st century, world conflict and contestation is likely to revolve around these issues and Mackinder may well be making a comeback.

Geopolitics redux A new form of geopolitics is determining the way we should now look at the world. Even though State sovereignty and national boundaries, still resonate in the developing world and in Asia, with increasing

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globalisation these are being replaced by free trade zones and attempts at political union such as the EU and the ASEAN. These political and economic linkages are beginning to change the way we look at traditional borders. Yet, decisions affecting global developments are taken in national capitals, not for the benefit of the world or the region, but to enhance respective national interests.

Finally, soft power, an idea popularised by Joe Nye, but introduced even earlier in the seventh century by Laozi of China has emerged as a factor contributing to comprehensive national power. These influences are reinforced today by bilateral or multilateral aid, through the exercise of UN veto to prevent international coercive actions and thus create dependencies.

political system that seems incapable of taking the quick and efficient decisions for which the US system was admired till recently. In large measure similar disarray characterises Europe, Russia and even Japan, but is further compounded by the fact of demography. Rapid deceleration of population, diminishing working age cohorts, which cannot sustain existing welfare systems, will make these countries rapidly lose global economic power and consequent influence.

Decline of USA

Chinese expansion

It is in this context that we need to examine the future global geopolitics in Asia. There is a general agreement that this is characterised by the relative decline of the US, the rapid reemergence of the Chinese tiger and the steady gait of the Indian elephant.

“Geopolitics is about realities not headlines”, says George Friedman of the Strategic Foresight. Unfortunately, realities do not encourage optimism. Witness for example the rapid expansion of Chinese global influence. Steadily over the last decade Siberia is being taken over, albeit on ‘lease’, by 600,000 Chinese who are migrating there every year. The entire Siberian population of just six million, occupy an area twice the size of India and is north of a region in China that has 100 million, waiting to cross over. If global warming predictions turn out to be true, this area with abundant water and a rich soil will become the granary of the world, in addition to being the repository of enormous energy and mineral resources. Deng Xiaoping realised two decades ago the international pressures that China may encounter in its sudden rise to power in a hostile world. In his famous 16 character slogan in 1991 he had admonished his countrymen to

The decline of the US is not a question of if, but when. But, it should also be recognised that this transition will be relative and not absolute and be spaced out over time. The cause of American decline will not be “imperial overstretch”, popularised in the late 1980’s by Prof. Paul Kennedy. It will be caused instead by a profligate economy that is incapable of national savings, uncontrolled and rogue financial institutions and the disastrous pursuit of two simultaneous major international wars. This decline is being further abetted by a non-functional, partisan

Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Dipankar Banerjee

“keep a low profile and to keep your heads down”. To this was later added “and do something constructive”.

Defining moments With the rapid deceleration of US power this admonition no longer applies. The Chinese “coming out party” is being celebrated over three events spread over a year and a half. The first, was the 2008 Olympics, in which for the first time China won the largest number of gold medals and demonstrated superb organisational skills. The second was the October 1, 2009 military parade to mark the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic. Even though its own people had to be kept indoors, lest some unseemly event mar the magnificence of the parade, the display of a wide range of entirely indigenous military hardware left no one in doubt of the impact. The third and final event is the recently held Shanghai Expo, to showcase the new China to the world. Goldman Sachs had predicted in 2004 that China will overtake the USA

Soft power National power earlier directly flowed from the barrel of a gun. Today, it emanates from a complex set of comprehensive national power, principally determined by economic strength. The availability or access to oil and natural gas, the ability to produce goods at competitive rates and sell it worldwide through innovative technology enhances the power of a nation. Quality governance, effective foreign policy and an ability to shape

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in gross domestic product by 2040. Two years later it modified the prediction to bring the date forward to 2027. With the economic meltdown in the west, it is now clear that this will happen much earlier. The signs of China’s ‘coming out’ are for all to see. In 2007 was held the China-Africa summit in Beijing, which 45 heads of State or government from Africa representing 48 States of the continent attended. This was followed up through billions of dollars in aid to create infrastructure and buy influence while ensuring a steady supply of critical minerals and oil and gas to the mainland.

China’s economic and commercial presence today spans Latin America, Asia and Africa. In Southeast Asia as well its influence has been growing. The region is integrated with the Chinese economy and linked to its infrastructure. Even though issues of river water sharing and the islands in the South China Sea still cause apprehension, concern is expressed in subdued terms.

Central Asia The immediate geopolitical impact of China’s rise will be felt in Mackinder’s ‘heartland’ in Central Asia. The first shot was fired with the setting up of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The endgame in Afghanistan has started. The deadline for this was

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dominion announced in advance by President Obama himself as July 2011. No matter how vigorously this was subsequently denied and at what level, the image has stuck and that is more important than reality. This decision is irrevocably tied to US domestic political agenda and the election cycle.

Pakistan’s centricity China’s ‘all-weather friend’ and proxy, Pakistan will unquestionably do its bidding, which was again demonstrated by recent high level visits in June-July 2010. China has

huge advantages and major strategic requirements. Oil and gas from the middle east and Turkmenistan, the mineral resources of Afghanistan and an access to the critical Persian Gulf. It needs to also provide depth to its own sensitive Xinjiang region. The coming Great Game to be played out over the next few years will have enormous consequences for all.

Pacific rim Some are likely to question this scenario and argue that China is too shrewd to get sucked into the vortex of a troubled region, long seen as the graveyard of empires; that it has other more serious domestic conditions to address. But, this is one possible contingency that poses tremendous

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opportunities even though some significant challenges. China’s eastern front is secure. Japan poses no threat. Taiwan has been neutralised finally through the recent trade agreement and ASEAN would do its bidding no matter what. With such a secure perimeter, West Asia provides opportunities that are immense.

India’s response Geopolitics is not entirely about scenario building, even though it shapes its contours. It is also about choices and options in anticipation of possible developments. How should India respond? It should be based on an accurate analysis of current capabilities. Relatively, in comprehensive power terms, we lack behind woefully. Yet, we too have advantages of a strong democracy, strengthening economy and a circle of friends and partners that can never be undervalued. We are also on the right side of history. More than this, a full answer would call for a comprehensive strategy, which this format does not allow. A short response would lie in developing coalitions, build bridges with ethnic minorities, create structures internationally and build an architecture of security cooperation with like-minded countries.

NEO-EURASIaNISM?

Russian Rahul Mishra and

Rohit K. Mishra

resurgence

The debate about the “unipolarity” of the world after the end of the Cold War is beginning to stutter and will soon choke on itself as the rising tide of Russian resurgence begins to lap Euro-Atlantic shores. Russia under Putin is bent on giving the word “Czar” a new energy connotation. Its role in the Central Asian Republics and a consolidation of age-old friendships that have stood the test of time will ensure that multipolarity will prevail.

Major General Dipankar Banerjee has served in all operational theatres and the wars of the Indian Army. Commissioned into the 1st Gorkha Rifles in December 1960 he has been an instructor at the Indian Military Academy, the College of Combat and twice at the Defence Services Staff College (once as Chief Instructor Army). He attended the Staff College at Camberley, UK and the National Defence College, New Delhi. For the last 23 years he has held Director level positions at leading think tanks in India and the region specialising in international security and strategy.

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NEO-EURASIaNISM?

he sheer pace at which Russia has emerged from the ashes of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) has forced the over buoyant Yankee scholars to rethink about the ‘Unipolar Moment’ and the ‘End of History’ theses and take a serious re-look at Russia. Within a short span of twenty years after the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the last century as former Russian President Vladimir Putin calls the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia is ‘back to the headlines’. Russia, under the dynamic leadership of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev, has re-established itself as a military superpower and an economic powerhouse; this time equipped with the potent forces of oil and gas along with the huge nuclear stockpile and state-of-the art defence industry.

Since Vienna Congress of 19th century when the Romanov emperor Czar Alexander-I had played an important role in the defeat of Napoleon, Russia has been playing a great role in shaping the international geopolitics. It was most magnificently manifested in the second half of twentieth century when USSR was one of the two pillars of the world.

Out of doldrums During the first decade of its birth, Russia was in doldrums and its economy was in shambles. Separatism was on a rise, Chechen and Ingush insurgents were playing havoc and incidents of terror were the order of the day. Governors of provinces especially of the Far East region were unruly horses; economy was in the grip of oil barons like Mikhail Khodorkovsky. International Monetary Fund imposed ‘Shock Therapy’ proved a disaster, thereby further complicating the domestic condition of the Russian federation. Russia’s domestic situation, particularly the state of economy and the law and order situation, was so bad that some commentators had even gone to the extent of predicting further disintegration of Russia. Scholars like Joseph Brodsky argued that Russia as a great power was dead. In an interview published in Izvestiya in February 1996 he said, “I think that Russia as a great power is over, Russia’s space will shrink. You can stand up from the gambling table, it’s all over.”

Strong leadership

American decline

Champion of multipolarity

Re-emergence of Russia came about largely due to a range of factors including the strong presidency of Vladimir Putin who came to power after the end of Boris Yeltsin’s term. Slowly and steadily Putin took command of Russia and skilfully managed to put Russia back to its big power status; a country which has a prominent role in matters concerning the world. Putin, particularly in his second term contributed a lot to the strengthening of economy of Russia and the simultaneous sharpening of its foreign policy. He followed iron fisted policies against Chechens, waged a war and successfully won the second Russo-Chechen war; terrorists too met the same fate.

While Russia was on a rise at the international stage, the US led ‘Unipolar moment’ was gradually slipping to the margins as it had engaged itself in many contentious issues across the globe including Afghanistan and Iraq. The 9/11 terrorist attack on the US was a watershed event in this regard.

As part of its stated policy evident from the ‘Foreign Policy Concept’ of 2000 and 2008, Russia favours a multipolar world. On many issues where the US tried to go the unilateral way, Russia was instrumental in championing the cause of multipolarity. With its veto power Russia along with

Despite protests from the armed forces, Russian political leadership took the unprecedented step of allowing the US to open its base in the Central Asian region so that the US could fight and capture leaders of Taliban and Al Qaeda the terror outfits responsible for 9/11 attacks. Russia was very much aware of its vulnerabilities as it considers the region as its ‘soft underbelly’. However, the move on part of both the countries highlighted on an interesting fact: Russian influence and diplomatic prowess in the Central Asian region is undeniable - even for the US. This showed the geopolitical significance of Russia to the world in general and to the US in particular. It also pointed towards Russia’s willingness to become the ‘normal great power, which has no bitterness against its erstwhile rival’.

China asserted its influence in the world forums. On the issue of Iraq invasion and of late on the question of Iran possessing the nuclear weapons, Russia prudently took the side of European troika, thereby stopping the US to take extreme measures on these issues.

Following Imperial Russia’s great diplomat Alexander Gorchakov’s advice, the new Russian leader firstly focused on improving the financial health and domestic conditions of Russia.

Diplomatic thrust Realising the mistakes of the erstwhile USSR, it cut down on the unnecessary aid flow to third and fourth world countries and communist movements therein. In the foreign Policy concept of 2000, Russia gave more priority to its CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) countries, closer relationship with old partners like China and India and a healthy dialogue with member countries of the European Union. Russia signed Strategic partnership agreements with China and India. Along with China, it set up SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) to counter terror and sort out border problems with the neighbouring Central Asian Republics.

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Now, after almost a decade the US is finding itself caught in the same Afghan bog which had swallowed the mighty British and the Soviet armies at one point of time in history. Russia’s geopolitical significance is being realised by the sole superpower yet again. One apt example of this is when Russia allowed transit of US supplies for Afghanistan in February 2009.

Russia’s geopolitical importance is also evident from the fact that on many issues Russia has successfully made a re-entry in terms of finding a prominent role. For instance, on North Korean nuclear crisis four party talks was expanded in six party talks to accommodate Russia and Japan. Russia has also had a major role in ‘the Greater Middle East’ region today because of the arms supplies and the views expressed by its policy makers at international bodies like the United Nations.

Repairing fences Taking the cue from the national emblem of double headed eagle, Russian eagle has started looking both east and west. It is engaged in a series of productive dialogues with the EU particularly with the major countries such as Germany and France. On the other hand it is strengthening politico-

military ties with the countries of Asia and the Pacific due to the realisation that Russia is as Asian as a European power. Friendship with China reached to new heights with idea of Russo-Chinese Axis. Russia tried to solve the border problem with Japan over the Northern territories but without compromising with its national interest. Russia’s all weather friendship with Vietnam is on

an all time high and the two countries are now exploring the possibility of nuclear cooperation. Russia’s nuclear potential has been realised by one of the oldest alliance partners of the US - Australia. Both Australia and Russia have realised how important they could be for each other if the baggage of history is shed and the two countries start looking at each other in a more constructive way. This tectonic shift again is an outcome of the realisation on Australia’s part that no country can afford to overlook Russia’s rise if the world is to be made more prosperous and peaceful.

India time-tested One of the greatest geopolitical achievements of Russia in the post cold war years is that it is strategically close to both the rising big powers of Asia China and India, something which the US failed to do in these many years since India and China are perceived as potential adversaries. India too has maintained a fine balance in terms of maintaining close ties with both Russia and the US. India is Russia’s time-tested partner. The two countries signed Strategic partnership agreement

in 2000 and Russia kept on siding with India on issues of critical importance such as Kashmir, terrorism and nuclear co-operation. Russia has shown its military might and diplomatic skills in the very first war of 21st century i.e. in the in war against Georgia which was conventional as well as a cyber-war. Russia has not only

successfully managed to liberate South Ossetia and put Mikheil Saak’ashvili’s ambition down but also gave a befitting reply to the challenge of NATO’s eastward expansion.

Promising future So far as the future of Russia in the international arena is concerned, it seems promising for a multitude of reasons. USA’s apparent downfall, China’s global presence, Russia’s re-emergence, emergence of ‘One European identity’ and India’s rise together are indicative of a new world order characterised by the multipolarity. All these factors put together signify that these members of the game will play together, shaping a new era of world politics.

Energy politics In the multipolar world, Russia is bound to be one important determinant in deciding the course of events in Central Asia and Balkans - its zone of influence. Russia and the Euro Atlantic coalition will fight for influence over Eastern Europe and Central Asia. If one looks at the recent political developments in the CIS region, it could be safely argued that one might

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Russia has shown its military might and diplomatic skills in the very first war of 21st century i.e. the in war against Georgia which was conventional as well as a cyber-war. Russia has not only successfully managed to liberate South Ossetia and put Mikheil Saak'ashvili’s ambition down but also gave a befitting reply to the challenge of NATO’s eastward expansion

witness more of externally influenced ‘Coloured Revolutions’ there and counter attempts by Russia to stop them. Eastern European and Baltic countries will try to come out of the influence of Russia which will be opposed by Russia as it had done in cutting the power supply to Poland and Ukraine in 2008. As the trends confirm, energy is

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NEO-EURASIaNISM? destined to be one of the most important factors in determining a country’s foreign and security policy. Use of energy as an instrument of Russian foreign policy will be more frequent in years to come as energy resources are getting scarce and resources available may not be able to meet the rising demands of energy across continents.

Afghan solution With the proved inability of the UN and the US to control wars and intrastate conflicts, Russia is likely to play the role of ‘guarantor of peace’ in the parts of former Soviet Union. For instance, in the recent Kyrgyz ethnic crisis, Russia’s intervention was sought. One may also argue that Russia, with the support of India, Iran and China could play a key role in stabilising Afghanistan if the US and allied forces prematurely leave the war-torn country in a year or two. A more powerful Russia is likely to pose a far greater challenge to NATO’s attempt to become a global policeman. It will shield countries like Cuba, Venezuela and Vietnam in the possible future conflicts; something which it has been doing all along. Russia is and will continue to become a cheap and unconditional supplier of arms and weaponry to developing countries of the world. It will remain preferred arms supplier after the US and France. For instance, Russia is one of the prime defence partners with India, Vietnam and Venezuela. Russia’s ROSOBORONEXPORT is the key player in export of arms to a range of countries including India and China; the two constitute more than fifty per cent of Russian arms exports. Russia has a range of joint ventures on defence production signed with India and Vietnam. In fact, Russia is the largest defence exporter of weapons to South East Asian countries. With no strings attached in providing arms and nuclear technology, Russia will help in fulfilling the mushrooming nuclear ambitions of countries like Myanmar and Iran creating problems for the Euro-Atlantic coalition.

is based on a quasi-political theory that juxtaposes the ‘Atlantist New World order’ against the Russia oriented ‘new Eurasian order’. Russo-Chinese Axis, if it continues, will keep troubling the Euro-Atlantic block on the issues like Zimbabwe, Hamas and Iran with regular use of veto power they will force the EuroAtlantic coalition to give them their pie in the cake or go through the UN route.

Regional groupings Additionally, unlike the US, Russia has realised the strength of regional groupings and thus has been keen to join any group which is of substance. The India-Russia-China triangle, BRIC, East Asia summit, SCO and Eurasian Energy Union are cases in point. It is also in the process of creating world gas cartel and join OPEC to augment its clout. Another issue of significance with long-term geopolitical implications is the fact that the Arctic ice is swiftly melting. Scientists are expecting that by the middle of this century Arctic Ocean route will be navigable which will end the age old Russian quest for ice free ports once and for all. Russia, then, will have access to the most important and shortest trade route to Europe. Perhaps, Russia is one of the few countries to which global warming is likely to be useful.

European union - NATO

best friends or rivals?

Dominika Cosic

Relationships between these two organisations have been always very delicate and problematic. Most of European countries are members of both organisations. But NATO is led by United States and this fact creates special tensions. Hopefully after “change of the political guard” in Germany and France (five and three years ago) there is finally serious chance for new beginning between NATO and European Union. For the first time in its history these relations will be the main subject during next EU summit in September 2010, in Brussels, which is symbolical.

Stable pole

Neo-Eurasianism

In the final analysis, it can be said that Russia’s burgeoning defence industry, rapidly growing arms trade and the deep pockets filled with petrodollars coupled with robust and stable leadership will further strengthen its politico-military prowess globally. Diplomatic and political assertions at the regional and international level are still in the process of rise which is due to the fact that Russia has successfully sensed the altering course of international trends in geopolitics. Russia will stand strong as one of the stable poles in the multipolar world order arising out of the decline of American unipolarity.

One may add that the Russian reemergence may give rise to the ideology of neo-Eurasianism; propounded by Panarin and Aleksandr Dugin, which

The writers are researchers at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) and Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies - Jawaharlal Nehru University respectively.

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concord

Saga of love and hate What they are? To begin with in the middle of last century answer for this question was clear: NATO was military alliance responsible for security and defence transatlantic and European community was economic community. But with time, when political role and ambition of European Union was

increasing, there was no more very clear answer. First problems within NATO started when France, led by president Charles De Gaulle left military structure of NATO. So called “historical enlargement” in 1999 when former communist countries Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary joined NATO,

changed the situation. It was a very short moment of great power of NATO. New members have been since beginning strong supporters of United States contrary to France, Germany and Belgium. The same year military intervention in Yugoslavia, bombing of this country divided the alliance. It was first time in its history when NATO decided to attack an independent,

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concord

sovereign country which was not attacking a member country. Some of the alliance countries like Greece and in the beginning also France, Germany and Italy have been very skeptical. But the real crisis came four years later, in 2003. US relations with some of the most important European allies were damaged by the US invasion of Iraq, which naturally affected both the internal cohesion of NATO and the organisation’s relations with the EU.

European army: dream or reality? Idea of European army, which is recently very often mentioned by important European politicians, is not new one. It had been put on the table in 1954 but then France, which was afraid of Germany (it was only nine years since the end of Second World War) stopped working on it. Another reason was a wish to avoid a tension between Europe and Soviet Union. In following years, from completely different reasons (threat of increasing role and power of France and Germany) it was United Kingdom which was against it. In 2003 Javier Solana, former secretary general of NATO, later Chief of European Diplomacy created new strategic concept of security and defence policy of European Union. He underlined threats and dangers. At the same time was opened European Defence Agency. Next step was idea of Rapid Reaction

Forces – they should react in a situation when NATO is not able to do it. On 20 February 2009 the European Parliament voted in favour of the creation of Synchronised Armed Forces of Europe (SAFE) as a first step towards a true European military force. SAFE will be directed by an EU directorate, with its own training standards and operational doctrine. There are also plans to create an EU “Council of Defence Ministers” and “a

European statute for soldiers within the framework of safe governing, training standards, operational doctrine and freedom of operational action”. But idea of European army, on which was talking former prime minister of Poland, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, is only a dream for now. Europe is far away from this idea also because of a very simple and pragmatic reason – there is common reduction of army and finances. For instance France has cut number of soldiers from more than 200, 000 to 80, 000, Italy – from 300, 000 to 190, 000. Just compare this with American army which has 1.4 million soldiers.

The best friends? Nevertheless, given the international political state of affairs today, with a new US President in the White House who is very popular in Europe and

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with the recent reincorporation of France into NATO’s integrated military command structure, now seems to be the right time to redefine NATOEU relations. First positive changes have been in 2005 when, after election, Angela Merkel replaced Gerharrd Schroeder as German chancellor. Two years later Nicolas Sarkozy replaced Jacques Chirac as president of France. Result of these changes has been closer relations of Germany and France, the biggest European countries, with United States. Next year, during NATO summit in Bucharest France declared her come back to military structure of NATO. The same year when Barack Obama replaced George Bush in White House, Europe has been even more optimistic about its relations with US. New secretary general of NATO, former prime minister of Denmark, Anders Fogh Rassmusen understands very well that good relations between Europe and America and between NATO and European Union are necessary. In this context, bringing together the interests of both shores of the Atlantic may be imperative for the future of the alliance. At present, 21 of the EU nations are full members of the Atlantic Alliance and the rest, with the sole exception of Cyprus, take part in the Atlantic organisation’s different forms of partnership. For this reason, the organisation and the member States must strengthen the association that unites them, to avoid unnecessary overlaps and instead to generate synergies of action. There are also common interests and threats: like situation in Afghanistan, in Kosovo (former province of Serbia) or in Georgia. In July 2010 Rassmusen took part in a special meeting with deputies in European Parliament in Brussels. Message was clear - as long as NATO is a military alliance and EU is a politicaleconomic one we need you, you need us. And the fact that these relations will be on the agenda of the next European Union summit, in September 2010, has special meaning.

The writer is European correspondent of Polish weekly magazine Wprost. She specialises in NATO and European Union affairs and also the Balkans issues. She is correspondent (Europe) of Defence And Security Alert (DSA) magazine from India.

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MIDDLE EAST

Israel and the Arab world: A paradigm shift Since the beginning of the Israeli-Arab conflict as an outcome of World War I and San Remo convention, in 1920, the Arabs world defined itself mainly versus the Israeli Arab conflict. In recent years they define themselves in a greater proportion versus the Iranian raising power. Israel has become a potential ally for moderate Arab countries in order to stop the Iranian rush towards military nuclear capacity.

he origin of the Israeli-Arab conflict lies in the collapse of the Turkish Ottoman Empire by the end of World War I, in 1918, conflicting attitudes of the victorious colonial powers, France and Great Britain toward the Middle East, the need of the Arab people in the region to redefine themselves and their aspirations, the rise of Arab States, some of them on artificial base and the emergence of the Jewish Zionist movement as a leading power in the Middle East.

Spheres of influence Sherif Hussein from Mecca (the great grandfather of king Abdallah II of Jordan) held, during 1915-1916 correspondence with Sir Henry McMahon, the British Ambassador to Egypt, known as the HusseinMcMahon correspondence, in which the Ambassador promised an Arab independent State in the Middle East, on all the land liberated from the Ottoman Turkish empire, East to Damascus, due to the support of

the Arabs in the war. The mountains on the shore of the Mediterranean, West of Damascus, are inhabited by minorities such as Shiites and Christian Maronites in Lebanon and Alawites in Western Syria. Palestine-Israel was not mentioned specifically.

Dani Reshef

Balfour declaration On 02/11/1917, the new British Foreign Minister Lord Arthur Balfour issued what became known as the Balfour Declaration in which he promised a homeland to the Jews in Palestine. Indeed Arab forces, led by the Amir Faisal, the eldest son of Sherif Hussein from Mecca, did not enter West Bank but moved toward Damascus on the East side of the Jordan River parallel to British forces on the West Bank and they were the first to enter Damascus on 09/30/1918. For a short time there was a hope that the Zionist Movement and the Arab Nationalists, led by Amir Faisal, will cooperate for the benefit of the two nations when, on 01/03/1919,

Amir Faisal and Chaim Weizmann, the future first President of Israel, signed in London a conditioned agreement of cooperation. Amir Faisal was declared, on 03/07/1920, as the king of Greater Syria in Damascus, in Arabic A-Sham (one of the offshoots of Al Qaeda in the Middle East is named Jund al-Sham â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Soldiers of Greater Syria).

San Remo Convention The kingdom was short lived. San Remo convention in Italy, at the end of 04/1920, with the participants of the Western victorious allies France, Britain and Italy, decided to divide the Middle East in accordance with previous agreements between the

Western powers and backed the guidelines of Sykes-Picot Agreement. On 07/23/1920 the French forces overthrew King Faisal from Damascus in the battle of Maysalun. In a typical colonial prank Prince Faisal was declared King of newly formed Iraq in 08/1921. His younger brother was declared by the British as the Amir of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, Trans Jordan as they called it. In 1922 the French formed Lebanon.

Jewish homeland In the aftermath of World War I the only promises fully kept by the Western allies were those between themselves and the ambiguous promise to form a homeland for the Jews in Palestine. The promises to the Arabs were violated

Oilfields as trophy On 05/16/1916, in the early stages of World War I, France and Great Britain, in order to consolidate their alliance, signed the Sykes-Picot Agreement, in the name of the French and British foreign ministers of that time, to share the Middle East between the two superpowers after the War. The core of the agreement was the division of the newly discovered oilfields of Northern Iraq and their access to the shore of the Mediterranean - the Northern part, namely Syria and nowadays Lebanon to France and the middle part, most of Iraq, nowadays Jordan and Israel, then Palestine, to Britain.

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MIDDLE EAST

There is already an unsealed understanding between moderate Arab regimes and Israel over the Iranian issue. Ironically it is the Obama’s administration which insists upon linking the Iranian issue to the Palestinian issue and kept only partially. The Arab world was divided into 6 political identities: Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Trans Jordan, Palestine and Saudi Arabia in full accordance with the Western powers interest, mainly in oil. It also shaped the guidelines of the Israeli Arab conflict up to our days, 90 years later. According to the general Arab perception and narrative the Arabs were manipulated and cheated by the Western powers in order to exploit their resources.

Arabs divided The Arab world, according to the narrative, was deliberately divided to weaken the united Arab position and to manipulate them against each other in order to perpetuate the foreign interests in the region. The Zionist movement is there, as a part of the scheme, not as a genuine legitimate representative of Jewish aspirations but as a Western outpost to safeguard those interests and the ongoing division among the Arabs themselves. Indeed the Al Qaeda manifesto, published in Pakistan, on 02/23/1998, under the title “The World Islamic Front for Jihad against the Jews and Crusaders” used the same argumentation only with a strong emphasis on Arab corrupted and proAmerican regimes rather than Israel. For Al Qaeda Israel is not a genuine independent Phenomena but an organ of the exploiting Western powers.

Dynamic persists Another characteristic since San Remo convention in 04/1920 is that, eventually, the path and destiny of the Arabs is decided by foreign powers and non-Arab powers like Israel, Turkey and Iran even today. With time the Israeli issue became the ultimate definer of the Arab identity, aspirations and independence and the perfect scapegoat to the ongoing lapses of the Arab World and the conflict is all about finding a solution to the Arab World basic problems. The more the Arabs isolated the Jews in Palestine or Israel the more Israel was looking for support wherever it was available, including Iran, Turkey and Ethiopia, which supported the Arab claim that Israel is an ally to foreign powers and the magic circle is still spinning on.

Arab-Israel conflict Generally the conflict between Israel and the Arabs can be divided into three periods: A. The National-Anti-Colonial period when the Arab nations struggled against the influence and presence of France and Britain in the Middle East which lasted up to the Suez Canal war in 1956 and Operation Mousquetaire, described by many as the last Colonial Gunboat War. Although, eventually, the Arab nations were successful in gaining their independence and removing France and Britain from their grip on the Middle East - Arab forces suffered ongoing defeats in the battlefields, in 1948 and 1956, they remain divided, corrupted, dictatorial, their resources mortgaged to foreign companies and fully dependent on foreign powers. In fact the tension between Arab Nationalists and Colonial imperialists was replaced by a power struggle between Arab Socialists, backed by the Soviet Union and pro-American Arab monarchies.

Arab unity B. The Arab-Socialism period in which different forms of Arab-Socialism permeated the Arab World amidst the cold war between Russia and USA – the period stretched up to the late 80s following the peace process between Egypt and Israel and the Iranian Islamic revolution in 1979: In Egypt it was

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Nasserism, in the name of the Egyptian President Gamal Abdel-Nasser; In Syria and Iraq it was the Baath party. The pro-American monarchy of Iraq was toppled, on 07/14/1958 in a bloody coup. There were several attempts to form an Arab Unity of all Socialist regimes in the Middle East. The most prominent was the Union between Syria and Egypt in the years 1958-61 under the name United Arab Republic. The Yemen war between Egyptian forces and Yemen Monarchists, backed by Saudi Arabia in the years 1962-67, the devastating defeat of the Arabs in the Six Day War in 1967 by the Israeli Army and the failure of Syria and Egypt to regain their lost territories in the 1973 war against Israel emphasised to the Arabs that they are still divided, unfit to lineup and cope with their economic, political and social problems and that socialism is, probably, not the right answer to the Arab World aspirations in the Middle East.

Egyptian changeover By late 1977 the Egyptian President Anwar Sadat made an audacious attempt to breach the perpetuated paradigm of the Middle East by signing a peace treaty with Israel on 03/26/1979 in Washington. Although Egypt got back all its territories occupied by Israel it was considered by many as a capitulation, a recognition that the Arabs lack the capability to cope with their problems and, in the back door, a legitimacy to USA intervention in the Middle East affairs as another superpower. After 30 years of Arab Socialism many looked to another solution for the Arabs – Islam. The Islamic revolution in Iran, the peace treaty with Israel and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, all occurred in 1979, mark the beginning of a new era – Islam is the Solution and Jihad is the way, although the full meaning was unveiled only 20 years later – in the late 90s.

Islamic-jihad period C. The Islamic-jihadi period followed the collapse of the SovietUnion in 1991, the end of the War in Afghanistan in 1989 and the War between Iran and Iraq in 1988. The Middle East was, once again, divided but this time between pro-Western

relatively liberal regimes on one side and Islamic Radical reformists, many of them advocating active Global Jihad against Jews (Israel) and the Western powers. The confrontation with the West led to the occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan, to a bigger presence of foreign forces in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and to harsh oppression of radical Islamists all over the Middle East. In many ways radical Islam backlashed on the Arab societies, increased the internal violence, the brutal oppression of the dictatorial Arab regimes and the Arabs, as a whole, were pushed back rather than lined up with globalisation, modern open society and democracy.

Israel as scapegoat Nevertheless Israel is still a perfect scapegoat to channel all the frustrations of the Arab people. As a lesson from the Arabs’ previous defeats in military confrontation with Israel, since 1973, the Arabs adopted methods of guerrilla, terror and an asymmetric warfare aimed specifically against the civilian infrastructure of Israel. The recent success of Israel, following operation Defensive Shield in 04/2002, to overcome the massive campaign of terror and suicide attacks and to fully contain the threat pushed the Arabs to the next phase – the campaign against Israel’s legitimacy. Nowadays the Israeli-Arab conflict is in the phase of de-legitimisation of Israel. It is the first time that the vast and growing Islamic and Arab population and the demographic changes in Europe play a major role in the campaign by using not weapons of terror but European-like values and terms and by exploiting European naivety, indifference and ignorance. In a bizarre prank of history RadicalIslamists found common ground with Western Anarchists and radical leftists, who oppose any interference of the Western powers in the Arab world and refer to it as a sort of modern colonisation.

Israeli entrapment The new Jihadi-anarchy coalition is operating in and from Europe with money from jihadi organisations and instructions from Islamists in the Middle East in order to create as much as possible provocation against

Israel. They portray Israel as the NewSouth African apartheid, in which any measure Israel is taking is illegal because of the so called “occupation”. Given the large number of Arab and Muslim countries in all international institutions and the large oil reserves in Muslim countries, the Jihadi-anarchy coalition enjoys an automatic majority almost in any international institution or assembly.

Israel’s confusion For the moment Israel does not have, yet, a full answer to the new legitimacy campaign, especially because it is supported by many European politicians who are looking for short term gains in coming elections and to ensure the ongoing supply of oil and energy from Muslim countries. Israel is facing therefore a difficult period ahead. Some in Israel suggest an audacious political move but it seems that the campaign is about the existence of Israel rather than looking for a peaceful solution to the problem. The trend is dependent on the advance of developing alternative energy in Europe and whether the Europeans will, for their own interest, put restrictions and limitations on the Islamisation of Europe.

Paradigm shift Another cardinal change in the Middle East is the rift in Islam between the Sunni Arabs, led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt and the Shias led by Iran, especially amidst the military nuclear ambitions of Iran. If the Arab world defined itself versus the Israeli Arab conflict, they now define themselves in a greater proportion versus the Iranian rising power. It is the Shia arc of Iran, large part of Iraq, Syria, run by the Alawite family and Hizbullah in Lebanon against the Sunni heartland in the Middle East. Suddenly Israel has the potential to be the last resort to stop the

Iranian rush towards military nuclear capacity. The Arab countries know well that Israel is not threatening their existence or their regimes while Iran does. Even more so because USA is ambiguous in its approach towards the issue. There is already intelligence cooperation between Egypt and Israel in intercepting Iranian transport of weapons to Gaza, Lebanon or Syria and to uncover Iranian networks. From time to time there are reports of secret coordination between Saudi Arabia and Israel related to the Iranian nuclear

issue. It is the first time that in the Arab world, except for Jordan, there is a genuine attitude to benefit from fruitful cooperation with Israel. There is already an unsealed understanding between moderate Arab regimes and Israel over the Iranian issue. Ironically it is the Obama’s administration which insists upon linking the Iranian issue to the Palestinian issue. There is a dichotomy in the direction of the conflict: on the one hand a growing effort of Arabs, not necessarily based in the Middle East, to delegitimise Israel - on the other hand there is a common interest and growing cooperation between Israel and large parts of the Arab world over the growing Iranian threat. The writer is an Israeli citizen, 63, living in the Galilee, Israel. In the mid 70s, he studied History of the Middle-east and Arabic in Haifa University. He is manager and owner of the www.globaljihad.net.

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MARINE CRIMES terrorists (this risk is particularly high in the waters off Somalia and MalaysiaIndonesia. In March 2003, 10 men hijacked a ship (MT Devi Madrim) in Indonesian waters and practiced how to steer and navigate it for a few hours, prompting speculation that this was a possible precursor to a maritime 9/11, where the terrorists took flying lessons in Florida.

Endemic areas

Because piracy and marine terrorism have acquired dangerous proportions, the international response has been a closing of ranks and creation of regional reporting and counter-measure centres particularly in areas that have been piracy endemic. However, the rising graph of marine crime indicates that swifter means of intervention in such wide open spaces as the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean are needed to arrive at the crime scene within hours instead of days. It takes the better part of 24 hours to get to mid Arabian Sea from Mumbai. Greater use of flying boats could be the answer. 40

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he scourge of piracy on the high seas is almost as old as the history of mankind, while maritime terrorism is a comparatively new phenomenon. Piracy-infested waters include the Singapore-Malacca Straits (now relatively “pirate free” due to rigorous patrolling), South and South East Asia, Gulf of Aden to almost the entire East coast of Africa, the West coast of Africa and the East coast of South America. It is a fact that there are some areas where piracy and terrorism have some commonality (viz both are the actions of non-State actors, who threaten life and economic activities at sea or in ports). In recent times, with the spread of global terrorism, governments have become increasingly worried about not only the economic consequences of rampant piracy (insurance rates go up, goods become costlier and ships avoid certain areas if possible), but also the possibility that a hijacked ship could be sold by pirates to maritime

Pirates attack in regions where the risks are minimal, but rewards are high. In 2001, only 97 global pirate attacks were successful, while 238 failed. In 2009 the figures were 204 successful attacks and 202 failed attacks. During 2004-2009, of the 927 successful pirate attacks globally, looting of onboard goods involved 527 attacks, mostly in South East Asia, South Asia and Yemen. But hijacking and kidnapping is popular off the coasts of Nigeria, Malaysia and Somalia and these occurred 159 times with 867 individuals kidnapped in 2009 alone. In Nigeria, pirates and local gangs target oil rigs, offshore oil installations, bunkered oil and kidnap foreign workers. By 2005, Somalia, with little government and the longest coastline in Africa, became the new haven of piracy which has now spread as far south as Seychelles-Mauritius and extends to over 500 nautical miles seawards from the African coast, resulting in a huge area of almost 3 million sq km (the size of India). Initially the unemployed Somalian fishermen formed a “Coast

Guard” to prevent foreign fishing trawlers (including Europeans) from fishing in their waters, but this soon degenerated into piracy. Today an average Somalian pirate earns over US$ 20,000 annually compared to a per capita annual income of US$ 1,000 for the rest. No wonder, Somalian pirates are the most sought after bridegrooms in an impoverished ungovernable land!!

Rising graph In 2007, Somalia contributed to 16 per cent of global pirate attacks, but in 2009, its share rose to 50 per cent. Somalian pirates use modern global positioning systems (GPS) for navigating their mother ships (each such trawler tows two to three high speed boats used for chasing and boarding a victim ship after it is located), small arms and are backed by ransom seeking cartels and sophisticated financial backers. Pirates run small risks, since of the 650 Somali pirates caught till 2008, 460 were released and in Africa only Kenya and Seychelles prosecute pirates. In most pirate infested countries, local authorities have agreed to prosecute suspected pirates but are bribed to turn a blind eye ashore.

Counter-measures Various anti-piracy devices (electric fences to prevent boarding, acoustic devices, etc.) are being installed on merchant ships, but the London based IMO (International Maritime Organisation) is against merchant ships

Vice Admiral (Retd.) Arun Kumar Singh

carrying Arms for self defence, since it would lead to the pirates harming the crew. Presently about two dozen ships from 17 countries (including India, China, Russia, USA, EU, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, etc.) patrol the waters of the “Horn of Africa” and further south, but, as mentioned earlier, the area is too large and the only permanent solution lies in sending a UN land force to stabilise Somalia, generate employment, “neutralise” pirates by employing them as fishermen and banning foreign fishing vessels from poaching in Somalian waters.

Networking Various measures have been taken to combat piracy, since it adversely affects international trade and may also be linked to terror. Some of these are discussed below. To combat piracy (since over 90 per cent of global trade moves by sea), the International Chamber of Commerce, a private London based

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ordinated patrols (CORPATS) for a few days every 6 months on their sides (Indo-Indonesian and Indo-Thai) of the maritime boundaries, to prevent poaching, etc.

and sea borne commerce. It may even be the harbinger of greater Asian cooperation in other fields.

Pacific outreach

Not to be left behind, the Indian Navy on 14-15 February 2008, hosted at New Delhi “IONS” (Indian Ocean Naval Symposium), attended by Chiefs of 31 Regional Navies and inaugurated by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The aim of IONS is also to ensure better understanding between regional Navies to combat terror, piracy, while doing Search and Rescue (SAR) and helping mariners in distress. A second IONS was recently held in Abu Dhabi on 10 May 2010 and attended by Chiefs of 27 Navies. Ironically, the Pakistani Navy Chief, though invited, was absent in both the IONSs (at Delhi he was represented by the Pak Naval Attache, while in Abu Dhabi, the Pak Air Attache attended). I may mention here that the Lloyds list of high risk countries (for pirate attacks) includes Pakistan, Iran and all Middle East States e.g. Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Lebanon, Egypt, etc.

On 11 November 2004, a unique Government to Government Agreement was finalised at Tokyo known as “ReCAAP” or “Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Armed Robbery and Piracy in Asia”. However for ReCAAP to come into force, it required ratification by 10 countries - India was the 10th country to ratify it in June 2006 and ReCAAP came into force on 04 September 2006.

organisation with its own International Maritime Bureau or IMB set up the Piracy Reporting Centre (PRC) at Kuala Lumpur a few years back. In the meantime the “official” International Maritime Organisation a UN body based in London gave observer status to the IMB and promulgated that all Maritime Rescue Co-ordination Centres worldwide to be also Piracy Reporting Centres.

India’s pivotal role Any ship under pirate attack would report the incident to the PRC (KL), which would pass the information to the relevant MRCC for taking urgent policing action by units of the Coast Guard or Navy at sea. In India the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) operates MRCCs at Mumbai, Chennai and Port Blair. While all MRCCs coordinate Search and Rescue (SAR) in their areas of responsibility, MRCC (Mumbai) has been designated as the focal point for dealing with piracy and armed robbery at sea. Hence the PRC (KL) would report any relevant piracy incident to MRCC (Mumbai) for follow up action. In addition the Indian Navy has separate bilateral agreements with the Navies of Indonesia and Thailand whereby Naval units carry out co-

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As of now, in addition to India a dozen Asian countries have ratified this agreement (Sri Lanka, Brunei, Bangladesh, Vietnam, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines and Myanmar). The ReCAAP Headquarters is based at Singapore with its own Information Sharing Centre, which will also receive and report piracy incidents to designated MRCCs of the member nations - the ISC (Singapore) is an official organisation like the “private” PRC (Kuala Lumpur) and is expected to shortly get IMO Observer status. ReCAPP aims at information sharing, mutual legal assistance and cooperative arrangements in the field of piracy and armed robbery. The Indian Government has designated the Indian Coast Guard as the Indian focal point for all incidents of piracy and armed robbery in and around Indian waters. One ICG officer has been posted to the ISC (Singapore). The ReCAAP has a Chairman, a Vice Chairman and an Executive Director (all on rotation on 3-year tenures). The ISC (Singapore) hosted the first Governing Council meeting of ReCAAP in 2006, a special meeting in 2007 and also the second Governing Council meeting on 25-26 Feburary 2008. The setting up of the “official” ReCAAP is a unique landmark cooperative event, for the Asian region. The ISC (Singapore) will not replace the “private” PRC (Kuala Lumpur) which deals with global piracy, but will supplement it and ensure safer seas in this region with its booming economies

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Indian Ocean initiative

Safety drill As Somalia has shown, piracy presents a massive challenge to the global economy and also to security given the possible linkages between pirates and marine terrorists. India as the largest economic and regional power in the Indian Ocean Region (over 60,000 ships transit this region annually), has to play a more pro-active leading role to ensure safer seas, given our 90 per cent dependence (same as the global figure) on the seas for commerce. There is a need to integrate various international ship reporting systems (used for ships to voluntarily give their position every 24 hours to facilitate help during distress) with each other and with the PRC (Kuala Lumpur) and the ISC (Singapore). These systems include AMVER (USA), INDSAR (India), AUSREP (Australia) and JASREP (Japan). Indeed, all nations of the world need to get together under the UN banner to combat and eliminate piracy.

Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Dr. D. B. Shekatkar

new world order:

India’s role

India’s geographical position in the Indian Ocean predisposes it to a major role in managing, in conjunction and in collective fashion with other littoral states, the transition from a colonial, exploited past to a peaceful growth-oriented destiny. It is recognised as a “status-quo” power because it has no territorial ambitions except the protection of its own territorial integrity but its “sphere of influence” lies in the age-old relationships with peoples as diverse as Afghanistan and Vietnam or South Africa and China.

The writer retired as Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief, of the Eastern Naval Command, Vishakhapatnam.

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CONFLUENCE

t should be a collective responsibility of all nations to make this world peaceful, secure and prosperous. India must strive to play a lead role in shaping world environment, ideology and philosophy of peaceful coexistence, security and survival. Our Prime Minister Mr. Manmohan Singh in his address to US Council on Foreign Relations had categorically stated that all nations must strive and must contribute to make Copenhagen a success. He was referring to the challenges of climate change, but the same holds good to ensure enduring world peace and meaningful human survival.

The island group which provides the land bases, staging posts and launch areas / jump off areas for geo-strategic initiative and military operations are of equal interest to major global players as well as to India’s vital national interests. Mauritius, Madagascar, Lakshadweep, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Indonesia island group and Diego Garcia are among those which assume importance. It is of special interest to note that Diego Garcia has been developed as major US Air and Naval power base in this region and played a pivotal role during first Gulf war and in America’s war in Afghanistan and Iraq

form the group may owe its existence to history; pure chance or accident. This philosophy should be able to answer the question as to why one of the most powerful nations in the world had to seek cooperation of world community and specifically few nations (including India) to combat the war against global terrorism. There are limitations to individual power and these limitations as well as impediments are going to increase day by day. Therefore there is a need to explore new ways and mechanisms of collective behaviour dealing with struggle for peaceful survival and betterment and / or conflicts.

India-centric India has also been subjected to various types of threats and challenges over the decades. Indian defence forces and security challenges purely for defensive purpose cannot deal effectively with any adversary bent upon war of attrition. Mechanisms raised purely for defensive purpose cannot deal effectively with any adversary bent upon war of attrition and annihilation. Purely defensive forces and defensive, inward looking philosophy and vision are condemned to fight every few years on their own territory also in a disadvantageous position, because the initiative does not lie with them. There is a need to learn from the experience of some of the major world powers specially the American experience of 9/11 and the events thereafter. The American-led NATO forces now involved in the war of attrition and annihilation are driven by collective identity on both sides.

Collective effort

Costly exercise

It is an undisputed fact of human survival that individuals turn to collective security endeavour because individual effort and capability may be unequal to the task at hand and inadequate in many ways. Unequal because forces of nature and many of the challenges and threats cannot be faced or countered individually and inadequate because many individuals find themselves incomplete except in group. This holds good for an individual, a small nation or most powerful nation, the so called superpower! A group may be short lived or enduring; impetus to

Look at the cost of war in terms of human lives, resources and finances which a lone superpower has paid and will continue to pay at least for the next decade. It is this realisation that has prompted and encouraged USA to enter into strategic partnership with India. It is the realisation and desire to develop mechanisms to bolster the concept of collective security which is attracting various nations of the world towards India to enter into strategic partnership in different fields of human development and survival.

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India has travelled a long, rough and lonely road to get to present position where it is today. It has been a very eventful, challenging and a journey full of struggle. From a position of backward nation of snake charmers, half naked faqirs and so on, India is now accepted and gradually emerging major power player; by those very powers who called and addressed us and treated us that way.

Intrinsic worth India is a rising power by several indicators of potential, capacity and capabilities; this being gradually realised and recognised by key players in international system and international governance. The indicators include the world’s second largest population, the fourth largest army, the fourth largest economy ( in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), the world’s largest pool of doctors, engineers, IT professionals (after the USA) emerging academic order and a large middle class with increasing purchasing power which equals the total population of America and is still growing. India is a mature and stable nuclear power, a regional military power, has a bright future in the 21st century and is being invited, pulled to play a lead role in ensuring regional security, stability and in enhancing world security. This has been possible due to strategic vision, philosophy of the leadership in different fields and levels of governance. (Some of the self appointed, self styled, self proclaimed, armchair experts, analysts and some of the critics who are encouraged and funded by our adversaries as well as competitors may not agree with my view point).

Focus Though we have our own shortcomings and inadequacies; having come so far, we must not lose our focus and direction, since the challenges of 21st century and emerging world order demand even more courageous resolves, decisions and actions. India’s advance and progress in nuclear field, spacecraft, space science, missile technology and information technology etc. is not the result of some accident or coincidence.

India is also the world’s largest democracy. The people of India hold many fundamental freedoms that the citizens of western democracies enjoy. India is rightly accepted as one of the important poles in the multipolar world of today. India has been the traditional supporter of many important norms of international relations, especially those relating to sovereignty, peaceful settlement of disputes and UN peacekeeping efforts. Since the end of cold war India has emerged as one of the most active contributors of troops and resources for UN peacekeeping operations. India is also slowly and steadily getting integrated into the major power system of world governance. India will be able to remove likely sources of potential conflicts in international system in years to come and will help in power transition in emerging multi-polar world of 21st century. History is full of examples and repeatedly reminds us that nations and political establishments that amass superior material capabilities economic, technological, military - often attempt to refashion their ambitions and also the world environment, world order according to their so called “national interest” and ideals. (North Africa, Middle East, Iraq, Afghanistan are glaring examples). In this process, the international system often generates intense conflicts between rising and established powers and also within the nation State. This results in international tension and invites international intervention. Since India is an emerging power, we should be prepared to respond to various unforeseen eventualities and contingencies when called by international community and United Nations. However we must always remember that India has never mounted any violent challenges to the world order. India has not entered into partnerships or alliances with any world power for armed aggression against any country despite various pressures and promised incentives. Does it not speak of maturity of diplomatic vision that India’s nuclear test in May 1998 was the result of the long standing concerns over national and regional security as well as our national experience with some of our neighbours. It was reasonable for India to aspire for status of major emerging

power and member of UN security council.

Resistance to India Some nations question the basis of India’s aspiration to achieve power projection capabilities and status. There are various attributes. India’s existing geopolitical status, geographical location, which offer India to play a lead role in exercising influence to ensure regional security in Middle East, Central Asia, ASEAN region and of course in Indian Ocean region. We should also remember that India is one of the world’s most enduring civilisational entities which attributes to our desire to have a leadership role in international affairs. There is a powerful resistance from some powerful nations to permit India to be part of international system, which has been by and large managed by just few basically to protect and further their own so called national interest!! John Herz in his work “Idealist Internationalism and Security Dilemma – World Politics” has stated that “in an anarchical international system, struggle for more power occurs sometimes intensely, other times in more muted fashion or less visibility, specially among States that wield highest level of capability.” Concept and philosophy of “new axis of evil”; “either you are with us or against us”, “we will decide the future of the world system” are the bi-products of such thinking. Creating world opinion against Lebanon, Syria and Iran is part of such thinking. There is a tendency among established powers to extend their own power as far as possible, to exercise dominance over others and to reduce middle powers to the status of objects. Since possession of the nuclear weapons and their delivery system is one of the major attributes and defining characteristics of “powerful nation” the attempt is to deprive the emerging nation of such instruments,

often under the garb of concern for world order, international security and stability. (Reluctance and resistance on the part of some major world powers to understand Iran’s desire and attempt to acquire nuclear expertise and facilities for the purpose is another example). After 1998 nuclear explosion India was subjected to all sorts of sanctions and pressure by powers that be. However it is to the credit of India’s capacity to undergo hardship that those very powers who imposed and enforced sanctions against us are now offering “strategic partnership”. When one suggests India’s role in the major power system, it is not just to gain status or prestige but for

national survival with dignity and also protection and welfare of smaller nations, since even in 21st century smaller nations are constantly in danger and prospects of domination and exploitation by the major powers. This is evident right from the beginning of the 21st century (Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Georgia are examples).

Elements of power Since the discussion is about “India’s capabilities and role to shape the global system”, we need to be aware of the fact that power (military, technology, power projection capabilities) and strength (economic, industrial, technological, knowledge and internal stability capabilities) often go hand in hand. They are linked with each other and can’t be seen in isolation. It is an undisputed fact that when

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small and middle powers strive to develop and attain capabilities and capacity of a powerful nation, major powers do not take kindly and they do not support the aspirations of other nations and this unfortunately develops in a collision course and also in ideological confrontation (attitude of some major powers towards Iran is a glaring example). The resolution of such ideological conflict and perceptions of major power system is always a major problem. While trying to aspire for and attain a major power status to play a lead role, India will have to be very careful about the concerns and apprehensions of our neighbours.

Areas of interest India will have to develop capabilities and capacity to ensure security and stability of our “areas of interest” and accordingly decide on “areas of influence”. Geo-strategy, geo-politics and geo-economics will play vital role in such calibration. India’s area of interest extends up to Pacific Ocean in the east to Mediterranean Sea in the west, Central Asia region in the north and Indian Ocean region in the south. Indian Ocean need not necessarily be considered as India’s Ocean, but the security and stability of Indian Ocean region is crucial and important to ensure India’s security, industrial, economic progress and stability. Indian Ocean is the only ocean which doesn’t wash shore of any of the world's major powers. The Indian subcontinent extends more than 1500 miles along its maritime latitudes. Indian Ocean and India are flanked by two of the world’s sensitive areas. To the east there is southeast Asia, asean which because of its resurgent economy and emergence of powerful China has again become sensitive to the ambition and ideological fervour of that country. The increasing hold and influence of extremists and terrorist groups in some of the countries in this part is the cause of concern not only to India but to most of the nations of the world including China, USA, Australia and Japan.

China factor Geographic location of China would always remain a constraint to fulfill ambition of world dominance. May be

there is a realisation of this impediment which has encouraged China to establish military and industrial alliance with countries like Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and others. It should not be seen as encirclement of India in geostrategic terms; since this will reflect inadequacy of depth of strategic thinking. There is a need to consider other aspects also. Of course such military presence would always be advantageous to China’s interests. Indian Ocean would continue to hold key for industrial, economic and military progress as well as dominance and hence China would like to ensure easy, uninterrupted transportation, communication, imports and exports to further and sustain her dominance in the world.

Island-bases The island group which provides the land bases, staging posts and launch areas / jump off areas for geo-strategic initiative and military operations are of equal interest to major global players as well as to India’s vital national interests. Mauritius, Madagascar, Lakshadweep, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Indonesia island group and Diego Garcia are among those which assume importance. It is of special interest to note that Diego Garcia has been developed as major US Air and Naval power base in this region and played a pivotal role during first Gulf war and in America’s war in Afghanistan and Iraq. Due to its geographical location which results in geo-strategic advantage India is the only recognisable power to play a lead role in this region in ensuring security and also respond to a crisis situation which may emerge suddenly and unexpectedly. India’s immediate response during tsunami crises is a most recent example. It is due to our naval capabilities duly supported by air force that India could respond to request for help and assistance in disaster management. Same may hold good in other contingencies also.

West Asia The West Asian region (Middle East) is in competitive struggle since 1947-48. There has not been even one decade since 1947, when this region has not witnessed conflict, confrontation, war, destruction and destabilisation of governing regimes. Events in this

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region have not only impacted India’s long term national interest, economy, security and stability, but also of entire world. As has been in the past, in 21st century also this region will play a significant role in shaping world environment. Emergence of terrorist groups and increasing cooperation among terrorist groups and sea pirates should not be seen in isolation. Indonesian straits are vulnerable to terrorist strikes. The terrorist groups are also strengthening their presence and hold in Yemen and Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt are part of grand strategy of the terrorist organisations and the powers that support terrorist violence. One may ask as to which is the nation in this part of the world to which major powers and UN can look up to respond to any undesirable, unwarranted situation and eventuality? India seems to be closest which can respond to an emergency.

Chinese outreach It is very likely that calculation of China’s long term geo-strategic interests in the region have prompted and encouraged China to develop facilities and maritime infrastructure in Sri Lanka and Gwadar in Pakistan. It is for this reason that China is building up rail, road connections through Pakistan and also seeking increasing facilities in North Africa. In our own interest and in global interest, India needs to develop power projection capabilities and strategic reach to be able to play a lead role in crises management and crises resolution, when called upon by the UN. Are we in that position today?

Frontline Pakistan Throughout the cold war America had developed relationship with Pakistan based on America’s long term geo-strategic and geo-political interests. America’s interests in Pakistan were basically focused on Pakistan’s eagerness and willingness to provide military bases and facilities to conduct surveillance, spying activities on Soviet Union’s bases in what is now referred to as Central Asia. Once Soviet forces entered Afghanistan Pakistan become the forward base and staging ground for America’s (CIA’s) operations against Soviet forces in Afghanistan.

After the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan and dismemberment of Soviet Union, America somehow ignored Pakistan till the clandestine nuclear trade was exposed! After 9/11 again Pakistan comes on US radar and priority list in geo-strategic calculations. Unfortunately India kept away from Pak-Afghan region for reasons best known to the politicians and few diplomats only. Now that the Pak-Afghan region has become a main breeding ground for terrorism India has no option but to take a lead to reestablish peace and stability and help the world. America is very keen to seek India’s help in Afghanistan. India has very rightly kept away militarily. With its vast and in-depth experience in combating insurgency and terrorism India can play a lead role without getting militarily involved. India has made good contribution towards reconstruction of Afghanistan and reestablishment of governing mechanism.

Afghan imbroglio Apart from other aspects India-US strategic partnership would aim to bring peace and stability in Afghanistan. US must accept the ground reality and fact that it is the combined effort and cooperation between India-China-Russia and Iran which can bring peace and

stability in Afghanistan. America has made the biggest strategic blunder by keeping away Russia and antagonising Iran for some reasons. Even now it is not too late to get Russia and Iran on board if we want a lasting peace in Afghanistan. The student of geopolitics and strategy can see the future of the IndiaUS partnership with optimism, confidence as well as some concern. There is going to be convergence of national interests of nations on global, regional issues. The fast moving changes in the global geopolitical, geo-strategic and economic structures and interdependence among large number of nations despite their geographical locations, distances but common interests offer us the opportunity to look beyond self (national) interests.

Convergence There is a need to establish strategic partnership in all aspects of human development, human survival and security. If the nations (especially powerful and influential) are to effectively tackle multiple challenges that confront the world today and also the emerging world, there is a need for all nations to work together. India has the potential, capabilities and capacity to be a leading partner. “The international system as it is presently constituted is a near-oligarchy of major powers wherein other nations are often consigned to the role of objects of decisions of major powers”. (Baldev Raj Nayar and T.V. Paul – India in the world order). Accordingly, for reasons of their own security, stability and development, nations like India must have an ambition to enter the global / international system and governing mechanism (the exclusive club of major power / UN security Council) through the expansion of their capabilities, capacities and inbuilt endurance to stay on course in case of an adverse situation.

Indian role It is for India’s leadership to evolve

system and develop capabilities to be able to graduate to the role of regional power and major power, since India enjoys the pre-eminent position in

the Indian Ocean region. India has acquired strong credentials for a lead (major power) role in the world affairs and for progress, prosperity and peace for humankind. We must be aware and accept that even major powers (members of the super club) realise, acknowledge and accept and are reticent about coming forward to support India in its aspiration and legitimacy of lead role. Mr. Ross Babbage, an eminent Australian scholar has very correctly stated that: “there would be advantage in not obstructing the gradual achievement of these aspirations. This is not only because they are largely inevitable but also because many of India’s fundamental values and interests are broadly compatible with those of the West. India’s deeply entrenched democratic heritage, its successful market economy, its open culture and English language and its role as a rising, strong but essentially status quo power provide a basis for enhanced relationship. The writer has served extensively in northeast from 1964 to 2000. He mastered the art of counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism. He also combated terrorism in Punjab and Kashmir. He was head of the operational group of Unified command in Assam. He also served as Additional Director General Military Operations and also as Additional Director General Perspective (Strategic) Planning at Army HQ New Delhi. He was Chair Professor, Policy Studies in the Dept. of Defence & Strategic Studies at University of Pune. He is President of the "Forum for Integrated National Security of India".

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MARITIME METTLE

Dr. Hari Saran

The Indian Navy today is a three-dimensional force in a real sense and wants to expand its strategic reach. It views itself in 2012-15 as a force comprising about 135140 stealth vessels with long-range precision-guided weapons capable of anti-ship, anti-submarine and decisive land-attack missions. It is poised to be a True Blue Water Force by 2020-25. The process has been initiated in a very planned and systematic manner. In this century the Indian Navy has crossed many milestones in this direction and is now heading towards its objective. Silently.

“The Indian Navy is the largest and the most capable resident navy in the Indian Ocean region and is seen by most maritime powers as a stabilising force. As India grows economically, our stake in the seas around us will also grow and our maritime power will also increase commensurately.”

─Adm. Arun Prakash

he Navy HQ – now known as Integrated Headquarters of Ministry of Defence (Navy) unveiled a ‘Maritime Doctrine’ for the first time since independence on 23 June, 2004. This unclassified 148 page doctrine was released by the then Chief of the Naval Staff, Admiral Madhvendra Singh during the Commanders’ Conference at the Eastern Naval Command HQ in Vishakhapatnam. By this doctrine Indian Navy has revised its earlier defensive policy centered on coastal protection to an aggressively competitive strategy aimed at developing a credible minimum nuclear deterrent, pursuing littoral warfare and dominating the Indian Ocean region. This doctrine clearly states that naval diplomacy is one of the primary tasks of the Indian Navy during peace time. The Navy could be a very useful and effective instrument of State policy and can be in a position to pay more attention to neighbouring countries. In this doctrine India clearly declared that it is now a regional power and regards the arc from the Persian Gulf to the Straits of Malacca as a legitimate area of political, economic and military interest.[1]

Tri-service command India’s first joint command AndamanNicobar Command (ANC) was formed in October 2001, with its HQ at Port Blair. The creation and development of this unified command indicates that India wants to improve its position in this strategic and economically important maritime region, where China is engaged in increasing and strengthening its position in Myanmar. [1] Frontline, July 16, 2004, p. 46.

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MARITIME METTLE

Geographically, India has got the central position in the Indian Ocean. India’s overall security perspectives and Indian Ocean Region (IOR) are intertwined with each other. It lies half way between Straits of Malacca and Hormuz, the two most important strategic waterways of the world Andaman and Nicobar Islands constitute the southern and eastern frontiers of the Indian Union, closer to Southeast Asia than mainland India. Straits of Malacca are situated very near these islands. More than 50 per cent of India’s maritime trade passes through these straits annually. Over 60,000 ships travel through these straits each year. The then Defence Minister Jaswant Singh told the Parliament that the new command will exert influence over Indian Ocean sea lanes, combating piracy and facilitating the safe entry of ships heading towards the Malacca Straits.

West coast The Navy’s long waited futuristic, state-of-the-art operational base on the western seaboard was commissioned on May 9, 2005 as INS Kadamba (400

km south of Mumbai). It is Navy’s first exclusive harbour in the Arabian Sea and its third operational base after Mumbai and Vishakhapatnam. Late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi had laid the foundation stone of this project in October 1986. When fully completed, it would perhaps be the biggest naval base in the Asia-Pacific region. To meet the future maritime challenges, the Indian Navy wants to attain the blue water capability in the real sense. For this it wants to maintain at least four SSNs (submersible ship nuclear) and three aircraft carriers in its fleet by 2025.[2] Nuclear submarine with nuclear missiles will also play a major role in nuclear deterrence.

Nuclear submarine India has also started its own indigenous nuclear submarine development programme - ATV Project (Advanced Technology Vessels) in 1980s. The project was completed on 25 July 2009 when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh launched India’s first nuclear submarine INS Arihant for trials at Vishakhapatnam. The 6,000 tonne submarine will first be put on sea trials for two years before being commissioned into full service. With this launch, India has joined the exclusive club of countries like US, Russia, China, France and UK with similar capability. This opens a new chapter in the context of indigenous designing, development and production of new generation of sophisticated platforms in India. Having a nuclear submarine will add

to great national and international prestige also. By 2012-13, if all goes well, India may have three nuclear submarines in operation.[3]

Three-carrier force At present, the Indian Navy has only a single aircraft carrier Viraat (purchased in 1989 from UK), which is going to be decommissioned by 2015. The Russia-built Admiral Gorshkov will take the place of Viraat. India is building its own aircraft carrier under ADS project (Air Defence Ship) at Kochi Shipyard. The 37,000/38,000 tonne carrier will have a range of 7,000 nautical miles and an endurance of 45 days. The ADS is an ambitious project of the Navy. It is the biggest ship building project undertaken by the country. Construction of the carrier is in full swing. It will be ready by 2012 for trials and will be commissioned by 2015.

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1: For offensive strike INS Rajput has become the first naval warship to be equipped with four Brahmos supersonic cruise missiles on twin tube launchers. 2: The Navy has started to fit 3M-14E Klub land attack cruise missiles on all its Kilo-class submarines. 3: The fighter jets of Viraat have

MIG-29K fighter aircraft. It will be commissioned as INS Vikramaditya. The Navy has estimated its service life at 20 years. The revised delivery schedule is now December 2012.[7] 6: India has purchased three principal surface combatant frigates from Russia. The first two ships INS Talwar and INS Trishul were delivered in June 2003. The third INS Tabar was commissioned on April 19, 2004. These are the first Indian warships featuring the so-called stealth technology.

10: The Navy has inducted surfaceto-surface Barak-1 anti-ship missile in 2003. 11: On January 27, 2006, India and Israel have signed their first-ever joint weapon development contract to design and produce the Barak-2 next generation air defence missiles for warships. 12: The MoD has signed a contract on July 17, 2006 with Russia’s Rosoboron export to build three additional Project

There are only six other countries in the world, which build such ships. India reportedly wants to buy an additional advanced 65,000 tonne aircraft carrier worth 2 billion pounds from the UK. The Navy’s plan is to have three carriers so as to enable it to have two carriers operational at any given time.[4]

Quick-reaction force Modernisation of the Indian Navy has taken significant steps forward in this century to attain blue water power projection capability in a real sense. Watching naval might from the country’s solitary aircraft carrier, INS Viraat, on the high seas around 100 km away from the Indian coast on May 6, 2006 Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said, “Our government is committed to providing the Navy with the capabilities that span the entire naval strategic spectrum, from sea denial to sea control, while ensuring long-range sustainability and the ability to project power at short notice.[5]

[2] Agni, Sep. 98-Jan. 99, p.10. [3] ‘From Hush Hush to Hurry Launching of INS Arihant’ Prof. K.R.Singh, Defence Watch, New Delhi, Vol. 9, No 1, September 2009, p. 29. [4] Tim.Web.‘Royal Navy Aircraft Carrier May Be Sold To India’, The Guardian,Nov. 16,2009,at http://www. guardian.co.uk/business/2009/nov/16/ royal-navy-aircraft=carrier-sale [5] Times of India, Lucknow, May 7, 2006.

The major achievements are as follows:

been upgraded at HAL, Bangalore and are fitted with latest Derby beyond visual range air-to-air missiles, combat manoeuvring flight recorder and digital cockpit voice recorder. 4: The Barak anti-missile system has been installed on the aircraft carrier Viraat to destroy approaching hostile (anti-ship) missiles. 5: INS Viraat is currently being renovated in a dry dock at the Kochi shipyard and is being fitted with modern fire control equipment, navigation radars, improved nuclear, biological and chemical protection and dock landing aids.[6] On 20 January, 2004, India signed its biggest ever defence deal with Russia for Admiral Gorshkov along with the deck-based

7: A Rs. 30 crore extra fast attack craft T-84 was built at the Goa Shipyard with Israeli collaboration and inducted into the eastern fleet in April 2004. 8: Mazagon Dock Limited had constructed three stealth warships for the Indian Navy. These frigates were inducted as INS Shivalik (2003), INS Satpura (2004) and INS Sahyadri (2005). Presently, there are 20 warships under construction at different Indian shipyards offering many opportunities to the private ship building industry. 9: India is developing its own multirole unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) to improve its underwater surveillance capability at various depths in future.

1135.6, Talwar Class (Krivak class) frigates. These frigates will be delivered to the Navy between 2010–12. [8] 13: The three guided-missile destroyers are being built by MDL, Mumbai under Project 15A. The first vessel of this Project will be INS Kolkata. It is expected to be commissioned in 2010 followed by its two sister vessels in 2011 and 2012. [6] Indian Aircraft Carrier Back in Service in a Month, August 17, 2009, at http// www.defencenews.com [7] Govt. of India, Press Information Bureau, “Aircraft Carrier Admiral Gorshkov” Ministry of Defence Press Release, March 15 2010, at http//www. Pib.nic.in/release/release. asp?relid=59626&kwd=) [8] Jane’s Defence Weekly, Feb. 1, 2006.

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MARITIME METTLE

The developed world has two interests in this region - natural resources and market. In this century, due to international war on terrorism and globalisation , the IOR has become the central stage of the world. In the context of changed international scenario, India has re-cast her policies to be a major maritime power by 2025 14: On July 6, 2006 the Cabinet Committee on National Security had approved the purchase of 28 submarine launched Novator 3M14E subsonic land attack cruise missiles worth Rs. 8.44 billion for the Navy’s upgraded eight type 877EKM Kilo-class submarine. 15: Indian Navy will get its own dedicated communication satellite by 2010. This would enable it to link all its platforms through a high-speed secured communication channel. 16: In March 2010, Larsen and Toubro have bagged an order worth Rs. 970 crore from the Ministry of Defence for the supply of 36 high speed interceptor boats to the Coast Guard. [9] 17: The central government has transferred the Hindustan Shipyard Ltd. (HSL) located in Vishakhapatnam from the Ministry of Shipping to the Ministry of Defence in 2009. It is expected to boost the submarine and other shipbuilding activities.[10] 18: Reports noted that India and Russia have signed the final lease and training agreements for two Nerpa K-152 (Akula class) nuclear submarines during Prime Minister V. Putin’s visit to New Delhi (April 2010). The 12,000 tonne submarines would be leased to India for 10 years. India is planning to have three SSBNs (nuclear powered submarines with long range missiles) and six SSNs (nuclear powered attack submarine) in the long term.

19: India launched its third destroyer INS Chennai at the Mazagon Docks. The 130-meter long indigenously designed warship, code named Project 15-Alpha, will be inducted in August 2013.

Maritime surveillance Maritime surveillance and reconnaissance has now become the basis of modern maritime strength and operations for both conventional and non-conventional maritime security threats. All the prominent navies of the world are using a veriety of modern surveillance and reconnaissance platforms. Presently, the Navy is using IL-38s (Ilyushin), Tu-142s (Tupolev), Dornier-228, Helicopters (HAL- Dhruv, Kamov-25, 28, 31) and UAVs (Searcher 2 and Heron). The Navy and Coast Guard have a very large number of Dornier aircrafts for short range patrol activities. In 2006, the Navy purchased an additional 11 new Dornier aircraft from Germany. It has nine Kamov-31 Russian helicopters. The first batch of four Kamov-31 helicopters was inducted in the Navy in April 2003. The Kamov can detect up to 200 targets both air and surface and track simultaneously 20 of them at the range of 150 km in case of aircraft and target ships from a distance of 250 km. [11]

Naval UAVs The Navy entered another area of Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) in 2002 by inducting Israeli Searcher 2 and Heron - UAVs for maritime surveillance and reconnaissance. To extend their range and reach, the UAV control stations are now installed onboard several warships. These UAVs make a very small signature on radars and are difficult to destroy. Along with all these platforms, the Navy is also using the imageries of Indian Remote Sensing satellites specially Oceansat-2 for obtaining various information. The Navy wants to improve its long range maritime surveillance and reconnaissance capability. A contract was signed in January 2009, under the terms of which Boeing will supply eight P-8 1 long-range maritime reconnaissance and anti-submarine warfare aircraft by 2015. The first plane is expected to be delivered within 48 months from the date of contract signing. Simultaneously, the Navy is also in the hunt for six medium range

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maritime reconnaissance aircraft to achieve its aim of an effective three-tier surveillance grid in the entire Indian Ocean region.

NCW All the major navies of the world have developed the capability of NetworkCentric Warfare (NCW). NCW is highly relevant in the naval warfare context because of the fact that there are fewer fighting platforms in the vast arena of water as compared to the other warfare. Keeping in view the growing regional responsibilities, the Navy is in the process of developing network centric capability by networking all her three dimensions (surface, air and underwater) with command and control centres, so that whatever data, imageries are available to one unit can be made available to the whole fleet operating in the entire Indian Ocean region. For this the Navy has a plan to have its own satellite in near future. Presently, it is using NEWN (the Navy Enterprise Wide Network) system. It wants to expand the NEWN to cater to the future needs. A small beginning has been initiated and it is poised to develop a composite network centric capability in the near future.

Land operations In the annual naval commanders’ conference 2006, Admiral Arun Prakash had stated that the role of a navy in influencing land operations had attracted a fresh look in view of the operations of the US Navy in land-locked Afghanistan. Earlier, Indian Naval Doctrine 04 had emphasised the need to increase the land attack capability of the Navy. Military observers believe that in future operations Navy will provide an important support to land units safely from the sea. The ballistic and cruise missiles and naval air wing will be used to destroy enemy’s targets deep inside its territory. All the three dimensions of naval power can be used in supporting land operations. During the Operation Iraqi Freedom, US naval airpower showed its nimble, lethal and overpowering capability. The Navy has now grasped the importance [9] L & T to build 36 high speed boats for Coast Guard, The Times of India, March 22, 2010. [10] Govt. of India, Press Release, December 24, 2009. [11] Strategic Digest, January 2005, p.31

of naval land assistance capability. It is a new dimension of naval operation. For this the Navy has equipped her new platforms with land-attack weaponry, inclusive of missiles, while retro-fitting some existing platforms with similar capability.

Special forces The Navy has increased the number of her special force – MARCO (marine commandos) up to 2,000. For this special role, it wants to increase its sea-lift capability. Presently, it has two 5,600-tonne Magar-class landing ship tanks (LSTs), eight Ghorpad-class (1,100 tonne) and ten Vasco-da-Gamaclass (500 tonne) landing craft. The Magar-class LSTs can carry 15 tanks and eight armoured personnel carriers’ along with 500 troops. To increase its sea lift capability IN has purchased an old American LPD (Landing Platform Dock) - USS-Trenton of 16,900 dwt in January 2007, which will have a service life of only 10 years.[12] It was commissioned into the Navy in March 07 as INS Jalashva. About the INS Jalashva, the then Naval Chief Adm. Suresh Mehta said, “It brings about a different dimension to our fighting capabilities. We will have a capability to influence the land battle with longrange weapons and the ability to transport large number of people from one place to another.”

Cruise missiles A naval task force is a stand alone unit that incorporates the advantages of land, air and sea power into it. Therefore, it is pertinent that in future operations navy will play an important role in assisting land operations with the help of modern long-range precision weapons. Development of cruise missiles has made the naval force more powerful and useful in future land operations. They can cover considerable distances at supersonic speed, are highly accurate and have relatively low operating costs. They are extremely difficult to intercept and destroy because of their very low level flight above ground. Only a handful of countries have sea launched cruise missile capability. In addition to this the Russian MIG 29K fighters would also be used to attack land targets deep inside the enemy’s territory.

Naval diplomacy In this century naval cooperation and assistance with intra and extra regional maritime powers have become the main ingredients of naval diplomacy. In February 2008, the Navy took a bold initiative and organised an Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) to bring together the IOR navies to discuss issues of common concern. Representatives from 27 countries participated in the symposium. Now, the Navy is pursuing a pro-active policy of conducting bilateral and multilateral n a v a l exercises with neighbouring, r e g i o n a l and external powers such as Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Maldives, Sri Lanka, US, Russia, France, UK, China, Japan, Myanmar and Bangladesh etc. For this the Navy has created three important organisations – Directorate of Indigenisation, Directorate of Strategy, Concepts and Transformation and Directorate of Foreign Cooperation and Transformation for policy making.

Maritime traditions A chair for Maritime Studies has been set up at Calicut University in 2004, under the aegis of the Naval Wing of the Union Ministry of Defence with the principal objective of identifying the historical reasons for the erosion of Indian maritime traditions and to promote research of naval traditions of south India. In addition, the National Maritime Foundation (NMF) has been set up in New Delhi on February 15, 2005 under the chairmanship of a Vice Admiral. The foundation will have representation from members of all maritime related fields. It will help the country in increasing maritime cooperation with other countries.

Joint exercises The important exercises are Milan, Malabar, Indra, Konkan and Varuna.

India’s maritime identity has increased manifold by these exercises. The Navy had initiated Milan biennial naval exercises at Port Blair in 1995 with the aim to play a coordinating role and fostered closer cooperation among navies of countries in the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean region. Naval ships of Myanmar, Singapore, Australia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand had participated in Milan 2008.

Cooperation The Indian Naval warships had rendered valuable assistance to the IOR countries - such as Maldives (1988), Sri Lanka (1971, 1987-90), Somalia (199294, 1995), and South Yemen (1986). It proved that IN is capable of dealing with any contingencies thousands of miles away from the mainland. Under Operation ‘Sagittarius’ Indian naval ships INS Sarda and INS Sukanya escorted 24 US high value vessels between April 2 and September 16, 2002, passing through the Malacca Straits.[13] At that time, the US had requested India to escort her high value ships passing through the Malacca Straits. After the escort mission, Rear Adm. William Sullivan of the US Pacific Command concluded, “Indian Navy ships have demonstrated the highest standards of seamanship and combat readiness while providing safety and security to high value US ships supporting Operation Enduring Freedom.” In June 2003, INS Ranjit and INS Suvarna executed a month long deployment in and around Mozambique for security assistance. The Navy has provided [12] The Indian Express, October 20, 2005. [13] http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/ Monitor/Issue6-1)

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seaward defence at the time of African Union Summit in Maputo in July, 2003. Operation Sukoon was started on 21 July, 2006 to evacuate 12,000 Indian nationals from Lebanon. Maritime violence off the Horn of Africa had generated immense global attention in 2008. India was one of the first nations to send forces in the Somalian waters for anti-piracy operations.

Disaster relief On several occasions, the Navy has responded to requests from neighbouring countries to provide aid and disaster relief. The Indian armed forces had launched their biggest ever peace time relief operation ‘Operation Sea Wave’ to provide help and relief to the people in the Tsunami (December 26, 2004) affected areas in the Bay of Bengal and other adjoining region. Given the nature of the disaster, it was the Navy

which played a role in all the operations. The reactive response time of the Navy surprised the most hardened US naval planners also. Over all 32 ships, 30 aircraft and helicopters and over 5,500 personnel were mobilised for search, rescue and relief operations at various places in and outside the country. The Navy also provided help and succour to the Yogyakarta earthquake-stricken victims of Indonesia.

Radar station The Navy has also provided material assistance to friendly neighbouring countries. It has supplied radars, communication sets and patrol vessels to the neighbouring countries like Seychelles, Mauritius and Maldives. Indian warships have been patrolling regularly in Maldives waters for many years. India also has a formal defence agreement with Maldives that covers basic coastal security training in Indian

global security

MARITIME METTLE facilities and the repair of Maldives vessels in India. In 2009, Defence Minister A. K. Antony on his visit to Maldives agreed to provide assistance to the country to build a maritime surveillance system. India will install radar on island nation which will be linked to the Indian Navy and Coast Guard headquarters. These islands are only 400 nautical miles from the Indian coast.[14] India will also provide a Dhruv helicopter for maritime surveillance and patrolling activities and help to establish a twenty five bed military hospital in the Maldives.

intertwined with each other. It lies half way between Straits of Malacca and Hormuz, the two most important strategic waterways of the world. Indian Ocean has been the most ancient trading waterway of the world. The developed world has two interests in this region - natural resources and market. In this century, due to international war on terrorism and globalisation, the IOR has become the central stage of the world. In the context of changed international scenario, India has re-cast her policies to be a major maritime power by 2025.

Training facilities

During the post Cold War period, the economic and strategic importance of IOR has increased manifold. Home to over one-third of the world population, the regional countries are very rich in energy and natural resources. Among the littoral countries, India is on the top in terms of population, technology (nuclear, missile and space) GDP, military power and stability. Presently, IOR is completely free from superpower naval rivalry. In future, there is a possibility that China may pose a plausible danger to India’s security and interests in IOR. India is now a regional maritime power by all means and need of the hour is to realise and enhance this potential in a very aggressive manner in coming years. Indian Navy is fully aware of its growing importance and role. Naval power is expensive and not within the reach of everyone. The smaller nations of the Indian Ocean region not only look up to India for help and support but also expect the Indian Navy to safeguard their interests in many ways. Indian Navy and Coast Guard with their current resources can render meaningful assistance to the regional countries. They have to play an important role to deal with both traditional and nontraditional maritime security threats of the region. One should be optimistic about the future development of naval power because our policymakers have a keen sense of our potential to be a great maritime power by virtue of our population, resources and strategic location.

India’s naval training facilities are excellent. The IN has a number of basic and specialised training academies and institutions throughout the country. The hydrographic capability of the Indian Navy is the fourth largest in the world. The Indian Naval Hydrographic Department possesses vast experience with a longstanding tradition of professionalism, state-of-the-art equipment, modern infrastructure and trained personnel. Hundreds of foreign officers and sailors of the neighbouring countries get training in our naval establishments every year. A new Directorate of Foreign Cooperation and Transformation has been established exclusively at naval HQs under a two star Rear Admiral to interact with the Ministry of Defence and External Affairs to clear naval matters with friendly nations. A new Rs. 5,000 crore Naval Academy has been opened at Ezhimala near Kannur in Kerala in 2005. It would impart training to around 500 naval personnel annually. A group of South African naval personnel (11 combat and 9 technical officers) have finished their submarine training on Type 209 class submarine in 2005. INS Survarna, an offshore patrol vessel sailed to Mozambique (August 2003) on a training mission. Indian naval shipbuilders have rich expertise of ship building and training. This potential can be utilised to build close naval ties and mutually beneficial bilateral relations with IOR countries.

Strategic location Geographically, India has got the central position in the Indian Ocean. India’s overall security perspectives and Indian Ocean Region (IOR) are

August 2010 Defence AND security alert

JIHADI TENTACLES

Dr. Pankaj Jha

The arrest of terrorists in the northern-most tip of Aceh (autonomous region of Indonesia which is very close to Andaman and Nicobar Islands), claiming to be cadres of a splinter organisation called ‘Al Qaeda of Aceh’ has raised concerns about the security of Andaman and Nicobar Island group where the Joint Command of Indian Armed Forces is stationed. Also, the role of major terror groups and Pan Islamic organisations like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jemaah Islamiyah is expanding in the extended south Asian region. Concerted counter-terrorism operations by India and Indonesia are necessary so that the jihadists do not inflict any damage on strategic and commercial interests of India.

[14] “India to Install Radars in Maldives”, August 21, 2009 at http://www. defencenews.com The author is Professor, Department of Defence & Strategic Studies, DDU Gorakhpur University, Gorakhpur.

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JIHADI TENTACLES

he menace of terrorism in the extended southern Asian region has proliferated beyond the borders. The need has therefore emerged for coordinated efforts in this regard. The successful efforts made by the countries like Philippines and Indonesia and the constructive support of the neighbouring countries have led to decimation of terrorist leaders. The complete annihilation of terrorists has not yet been achieved and instead new splinter groups have emerged. The existing terror groups as well as new splinter groups are in the process of consolidating themselves and finding a safe haven for regrouping.

Larger picture Usually with regard to terrorism in southeast Asia, majority of strategic commentators and counter-terrorism experts in India are either ignorant or have not been seeing it as a major challenge to the security of this region. The pre-eminent fixation with Pakistani terrorism caught them unawares when the David Coleman Headley saga appeared in the national and international newspapers and now the revelation about links of an Omani national in 26/11 Mumbai terror attack have foxed the intelligence agencies. It has showcased the changing modus operandi and characteristics of international jihad. So, the compulsive or configured approach towards Pakistani terror networks germinating only from across

the border needs to be reformatted because the international terrorism has been changing shape and expanding the area of operations in terms of logistics and increasing cooperation between terrorist groups.

Aceh base While India has not been able to influence the international community to take stock of the situation and force Pakistan to comply with the Indian demands of prosecuting the Mumbai blasts accused, it is still to be seen how far India caters to the changed orientation of the major Pakistani terror groups and comprehends their future modus operandi. While the area of operations of the major terror groups in Pakistan has been expanding from that of India’s northeast to parts of Bangladesh to Maldives, the next stop which might emerge is Aceh.

postponed, but it sent alarming signals to the counter-terrorism agencies.

Big fish The Indonesian police arrested 16 suspected militants in February-March, 2010. Since February 2010 the Densus 88 has killed six militants and arrested about 30 suspected terrorists having links with the Al Qaeda of Aceh and were found to be in possession of jihad material. It is suspected that the police have also captured Abu Musa (who was involved in Australian Embassy

the iconic leaders like Noordin Top in September 2009 and even lately the killing of Dulmatin have left Jemaah Islamiyah with virtually no leadership at the top level barring Umar Patek who is on the run after the Bali bomb blast in 2002. Most of the top leadership of JI have been Afghan war veterans and have received religious orientation as well as jihad training in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The dwindling cadres and the eroding, compromised objective of JI, in terms of political struggle to gain

Aceh being the autonomous province of Indonesia having a large conservative Muslim population (24 million) which had been denouncing the radical overtones of religion is being caught in the consolidation of the splinter terror groups of southeast Asia, the fluctuating support base of Jemaah Islamiyah but increasing religious radicalism in society.

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■■ The Emir and military head of JI namely Zarkasih and Abu Dujana are under government custody and facing trials in Indonesia. Their whereabouts are kept secret. ■■ The Moro Islamic Liberation Front which is insurgent outfit seeking autonomous province comprising of 1,000 villages in south of Philippines had been negotiating with Philippines government but the talks failed. Interlocutors from Malaysia and 16 other countries left when government launched offensive against the insurgent group. Now Iran is trying to mediate.

Obama the target

The splinter terror organisations of southeast Asia have been trying to set up a new base in Aceh which is barely 70 nautical miles from the Indira Point, the southernmost tip of Andaman and Nicobar Island group. The possible reverberations in the north-western tip of Aceh should be a matter of concern for the Indian Armed Forces and decision making authorities. The congregation in the jungles of Aceh, a video footage of which is available in YouTube shows that the issue or the congregation is not stage managed for the media but is a very calculated move on the part of the terror groups in southeast Asia to get together on a rather idyllic island and forge better ties with the terror groups in the larger southern Asian region. Even Indonesian anti-terror agencies have verified the formation of new group known as ‘Al Qaeda of Aceh‘. Though, it was stated that the terror groups were planning attacks on the eve of the US President Obama’s visit to Indonesia in March 2010, which was

both the organisations has either been arrested or has been killed by anti-terror forces. The latest killing of Noordin Top, who was known as Osama of Asia was biggest achievement of Indonesian Anti-Terror Attachment (ATA) in 2009. Among the JI members Umar Patek is at large and US has declared a reward of US $ 1 million on him. Dulmatin was killed by ATA unit in March 2010 and was the biggest achievement in the anti-terrorist operations in the country.

■■ Abu Sayyaf has been facing factional fighting after the killing of their leaders Kaddafy Janjalini and Abu Suleiman in 2008. But even till date it possesses maritime attack capabilities and expertise in guerrilla warfare. Has been found suspect in kidnap of Italian bishop in 2008.

bombing in 2004) and established the training camp in jungles of Aceh. Also the police has stated that people trained in Aceh were behind last year’s Jakarta twin hotel blasts.

Successful operations In the last couple of years the terror groups in southeast Asia, more particularly those in Indonesia and Philippines are facing crunch of cadres and dwindling strength of leaders owing to arrest and killing by the security forces. Of course the enigmatic leaders like Abu Dujana and Zarkasih, the military head and ideological head are under detention in an unknown location in Indonesia. The killing of

legitimacy has left a number of splinter groups led by these erstwhile leaders of JI to form special mass strike force to counter the menace of the Indonesian counter-terrorism agency which is registering enormous success lately in terms of arrests and killing of the topmost cadres. So at this juncture it would be important to take an audit of the cadre strength of the terrorist groups in southeast Asia.

Active organisations Jemaah Islamiyah and Abu Sayyaf are stated to be active organisations which have cadre strength of 1,200 and 200 respectively. The top leadership of

■■ The coordination and cooperation between the terror groups in southeast Asia has been well known and is well documented by a number of antiterrorism experts in southeast Asia. Within the region organisations like Kumpualan Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM) located in Malaysia have become dormant and as per the rough estimates their strength at any point of time is not more than 40-50 cadres. Their area of operation s mostly northern Malaysia.

New groups ■■ Lashkar Mujahidin (strength 500), Lashkar Jundullah (strength 400) and Lashkar Jihad (strength 300) have grown stronger from the sectarian violence in Maluku and Sulawesi provinces of Indonesia.

■■ There are few militant organisations committed to implementing sharia and imposing hard-line Islamist values on society like the Islamic Youth Movement (GPI) and the Defenders of Islam (FPI) in Indonesia. In Aceh especially the northern parts of Aceh near Banda Aceh, FPI has become very active. ■■ There is another group which acts as a buffer between militants and political parties and their area of operations is mainly campuses and schools. For example, Indonesian Committee for Solidarity of the Islamic world (KISDI), Association of Inter Campus, (HAMMAS) and fringe organisations like Indonesia Muslim Students Action Front (KAMMI) and Muhammadiyah Students Association (IMM). Almost all these primary and secondary radical and terror groups are facing shortage of cadres as well as funds and so would like to conduct an out of area operation to shift focus to other areas and ease the intense police and intelligence agencies' pressure on them.

Aceh preferred The question that needs to be addressed is that whether Aceh is safe haven for the terror groups in southern Asia. Aceh has been hosting conservative Islam since historical times. The influx of Islam was from India and Arab countries in the past. If we analyse the reasons for Aceh becoming the hotbed of terror groups in future or even rendezvous point for the terrorist groups of southern Asia, it is because of the following reasons: ■■ Firstly, it is a conservative religious society which has become more stringent about Islamic laws and way of life. In fact in September 2009, the provincial legislature endorsed stoning to death for adulterers and even has a religious police to constrain people for unrelated males and females to meet at isolated places. It has started arresting people for immoral acts and has imposed sharia laws in public life. It strictly forces the religious dictum to the people during the religious month of Ramadan. This is a stark departure from the moderate Islamic thinking and secular credentials of Indonesian

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JIHADI TENTACLES

constitution and judiciary. ■■ Secondly, the former GAM rebels who have surrendered their arms are not being properly rehabilitated and most of the arms which were surrendered were crude firearms and weapons just for piling up calculations for the Aceh Monitoring Mission (AMM). AMM was instituted for the peaceful transition of administration from Indonesian government to Aceh Provincial government after August 2005 Helsinki Agreement. Though there is no evidence of GAM rebels involved in jihadi activity but the existence of jihadi elements in the society itself is a matter of concern. ■■ Thirdly, former GAM rebels used to get arms from the illegal arms market in Bangkok and other areas like Cambodia and so receiving arms would be easy in strategic location like Aceh. ■■ Fourthly, Aceh is seen as safer area owing to its autonomy after the 2005 Helsinki Agreement and the much severe combing operations in the islands lying between Mindanao in Philippines and Indonesia. US forces have become more active in the southern region of Philippines to support Philippines armed forces in the counter-terrorism operations. Also the decimation of LTTE by Sri Lankan forces has given a military option to Philippines. ■■ Fifthly, both JI and Lashkar-eToiba have been espousing Islamic State across the region. While LeT has endorsed Pan Islamic State across southern Asia, JI is also espousing for Islamic State across the Muslim majority regions in southeast Asia including Myanmar. This confluence of ideology might happen in Aceh. Though majority of the terrorists reported in Aceh have been criticising JI for lack of cohesiveness and effort, so these splinter groups might orchestrate a large attack to gain international attention as well as funds. With the arrest of Abu Dujana, Arabic speaking JI leader and death of Noordin Top, the funds from West Asia are difficult to come by and so the need to reconnect with West Asian funding agencies. ■■ Sixthly, in case of any maritime terror attacks this zone would be much easier to attack and gain international attention. As already pointed out,

during the piracy incidents in southeast Asia the coastal region around Aceh was reporting a large number of incidents with least number of arrests of pirates by authorities. ■■ Lastly, the Indian Naval establishment is quite near to the area of operations and any attack on Indian Navy ships or even cargo ships traversing the region would gain respect and international funding for these organisations. Also, it should never be forgotten that most of the jihadis in southeast Asia are either Afghan war veterans or alumni of Pakistani madrasas. The attack on the Indian military establishment cannot be ruled out because during the refurbishing and repairs of the Viraat aircraft carrier, there were intelligence reports about LeT trying to orchestrate attack on the ship.

Linkages As discussed, the major problem is that most of the terror groups in southeast Asia have either fought in Afghanistan or have been alumni of Pakistani madrasas and so the issue of connections between the two cannot be ruled out. In fact many leaders of the terror groups be it Abu Sayyaf or even for that matter JI militants have visited Pakistan in the past and the nexus still exists between the terror groups. In fact in the recent past the onslaught of the terror groups to launch attacks on the southern India shows that the motive is to build up easy access routes through inter-group alliances and also widespread attacks in India. The role of countries like Pakistan was always under doubt but the problem has multiplied because of political instability in Bangladesh, Nepal and even Thailand. Myanmar which has been able to put curbs on Rohingya Muslims is also facing problems with the growing nexus between Rohingya groups and few terror outfits in Bangladesh. Of late what has been witnessed that Bangladeshi terror or even hard-line groups apart from giving shelter to Indian insurgents are also mobilising funds for the Rohingyas. One of the important groups known as Rohingya Solidarity Organisation has got links with Pakistani and Bangladeshi funding as well as terror groups.

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The arc of terrorism though is developing and the rather localised conflict like southern Thailand is seeing the influx of foreign trainers from JI, Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and even from Pakistan so as to globalise the issue. One should note that southern Thailand is quite close to Andamans and the situation has been slowly gaining international attention. Also Lashkar-e-Toiba has been building bridges in Manipur and also as far as Australia among the Indian and Pakistani diaspora. The problem is multi-fold because of the nature of terrorism that is being propagated in the region. The issue of outsourcing and diffused dispersal of funding is another matter of concern. As India has been keeping a close watch on the terrorists from Pakistan, so it would be very prudent for Pakistan to outsource its activities to other countries which are not in India’s terror watch list. Few of the Muslim organisations in Myanmar having radical leanings have professed the claim of creating a separate Muslim State in western Myanmar, or recognition of Rohingya claims to Myanmar’s citizenship. From time to time Myanmar Muslim groups have sought material or moral support from Islamic countries and international organisations. The previous regime in Bangladesh had turned a blind eye to the passage of insurgents across its border with Myanmar and the establishment of training camps inside Bangladesh.

Rohingya resurgence One radical organisation which is gaining ground and has rather extensive network of links with Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan terror groups is Rohingya Solidarity Organisation, which has several hundred active members. RSO insurgents are usually armed with Chinese made AK-47 automatic rifles, Light machine guns, RPG-2 grenade launchers, landmines and explosives. The RSO gains most of its finances through criminal activity and drug running between Arakan State and Bangladesh. It has reportedly received funds from sympathetic charities in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, such as Rabita-al-Alam-Islami. According to open sources, from the 1980s the RSO also started

more troops in the region and imposed tough laws that gave the armed forces and police impunity in dealing with the situation. Over 2,000 people have died so far in these three Muslim-dominated areas in an otherwise predominantly Buddhist country. Buddhists have been bearing the brunt. The links between RSO and insurgents in Thailand have been proved but off late the terror links between cadres of JI and erstwhile LTTE are also being found in southern Thailand. While many JI cadres are finding refuge in southern Thailand and trying to induct local Muslims among their cadres due to the dwindling strength of JI terrorists. Few of the former LTTE cadres had gone to southern Thailand to provide training to the insurgents there. Also according to few intelligence officials of Thailand, the southern Thailand is witnessing influx of Bangladeshi and Pakistani clerics in the region. In fact two such incidents have been reported in the recent past.

Indonesian cauldron receiving funds from Islamic groups in Bangladesh like Jamaat-e-Islami and its radical student wing, the Islami Chhatra Shibir. According to Jane’s publication, the RSO “was also given assistance as early as the 1980s by Kashmir / Pakistani organisations such as Harkat-ul-Ansar, now known as Harakat-ul-Mujahideen. The radical Islamist warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hizb-e-Islami movement was also one of the sponsors of the RSO, a connection that seems to have helped few Rohingyas to develop early links with other organisations in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The issue of Rohingya Muslims has been gaining ground owing to the raids in the past by Indian Army personnel at Moreh in Manipur. Rohingyas have been stateless people who have been living in camps in Bangladesh. Police had stated that no weapons were seized from those arrested, but some documents have been recovered suggesting they had links with Islamic groups active in Thailand .Also lately Pakistani terror groups have gone to Myanmar and Bangladesh to find recruits for its war against US forces in Afghanistan. Also time and again Rohingyas have

been apprehended near the coast of Andamans as well as in Aceh in 2009 and even earlier also.

Thai connection Thailand is another emerging area of conflict which boasts of localised conflict which is slowly getting international terrorist attention. Thailand has been facing the menace of terrorism in its southern provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat. But more than anything even after the imposition of military rule in Thailand, the terrorism has not subsided. Thailand has been experiencing Islamic violence since early 2004. Incidents of shooting, ambush, bomb blasts in south Thailand, primarily in the Muslim majority areas of Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat provinces have exposed the fact that the radical Islamic elements have dominated the strife-torn areas of southeast Asia. The bloodshed began on 4 January 2004 when an unidentified group attacked an army base in the Narathiwat province which killed four soldiers and the attackers fled away with more than 300 M-16 assault rifles. In response to the attack, the government deployed

In Indonesia within the JI ranks there are many ex-Mujahideen who had fought in Afghanistan against the Soviet forces in the 1980s and others had attended Al Qaeda Taliban training camps there in the 1990s, after the Soviets had left. The severe socio-economic problems in Indonesia and to a much lesser extent, Malaysia, the political crisis accompanying the fall of the Suharto regime in 1998, the continuing problems in Mindanao in the Philippines and developments elsewhere in Palestine, Chechnya, Iraq, Afghanistan and other Muslim majority areas, have fuelled alienation and facilitated the spread of radical ideology in the region. There is a growing consensus among the terrorism experts that the threat of terrorism in southeast Asia has gone beyond the JI, given the spread of radical teachings. The many radical organisations under the Indonesian Mujahideen Council (Majelis Mujahideen Indonesia or MMI), for instance, are of particular concern. Within Indonesia as has already been discussed the problem is the lack of a structured organisation with regard to JI and so it was not banned in Indonesia till 2008. Also there have been links between Indonesian JI and

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global security

JIHADI TENTACLES

Initiate procedures for countering this floating terror population because any strong measures by Indonesian police would mean that many of these groups might infiltrate in Little Andaman’s or other idyllic islands. There might be a case or two in future of ‘hot pursuit’ LeT because most of the JI leaders having been Afghan war veterans and the new leadership being the alumnus of hard-line Pakistani madrasas. Even Sidney Jones, the terrorism expert had stated that more than 200 JI cadres had visited Pakistan after the 9/11 attack on the US. Also erstwhile LTTE which has been getting weapons from southern Thailand and Cambodia had found a

new source of arms and ammunition from Indonesia. This issue was raised during the visit of Sri Lankan Prime Minister to Indonesia in early 2007. The links between JI and Philippines based groups Abu Sayyaf are well known. The links between Abu Sayyaf and Pakistani groups are known because of the Afghan war and also due to the organisations like Abu Sayyaf being the subsidiaries of Al Qaeda. Even in one of the revelations made by Sri Lankan Foreign Minister in 2007 stated that at the behest of HuM, LTTE had provided arms and ammunition to Abu Sayyaf group in 1995 and also in 1998. Even lately JI militants trained in southern Philippines were arrested in Aceh. This shows the greater inter-regional linkages between the terror groups.

Australian hookup Even Australia has not been insulated from the influence of JI and Lashkar-e-Toiba. On February 15, 2010 the Australian court sentenced five conspirators (media was instructed not to disclose names) who were arrested in Sydney in 2005 for their conspiracy of launching attacks against unspecified targets during July 2004-November 2005 in Australia. The sentences ranged from 23 years to 28 years. The prosecution as well as the defence lawyers argued over the tenure of their sentences but it was found that their intentions were “intolerant, inflexible religious conviction” and were aiming for large number of human casualties. Their intention was to punish Australia for its involvement in Iraq and

A m o n g t h o s e prosecuted, one person had been trained by the Lashkare-Toiba, the notorious Pakistan based terrorist organisation. This shows that the LeT is slowly developing its pan-Asian n e t w o r k which comprises sleeper cells in Myanmar, Nepal, Bangladesh and now recently Maldives. Also the LeT has been networking among the southeast Asian terror networks namely Jemaah Islamiyah and Abu Sayyaf. Earlier also few people of Pakistani descent were involved in plotting attacks against vital defence and other vital installations in Australia. This included Faheem Khalid Lodhi, Pakistani architect who obtained Australian citizenship. He was the liaison person for LeT. He facilitated the stay of Willie Virgile Brigitte nee Mohammed Abderrahman, Islamic convert, in Australia. Willie Brigitte, a French citizen adopted Islam in 1998 and went to Afghanistan after the 9/11 but could not enter the country due to US launched counter-terror operations. So he enrolled in the terrorist camp run by Lashkar-e-Toiba in Pakistan and subsequently went to Australia and got married to an Australian national. But the links between Faheem and Brigitte were exposed and Brigitte was deported to France where he was prosecuted and sentenced to nine years in prison.

Greater radicalisation In order to counter the increasing radicalisation of terrorist groups in the region as well as in Australian society, Australia’s anti-terrorism laws were passed by the Parliament

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Ramifications for India

Afghanistan. This shows that Australia has figured prominently in the terrorists’ radar.

in December 2005. In fact in the law there is the provision of blacklisting of organisations and their supporters. Among the 19 organisations banned in Australia, three terrorist organisations of south Asia Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jamiat-ul-Ansar and Lashkar-i-Jhangvi are included in the list. The influence of LeT has been increasing in Australia especially among the Indian and Pakistani diaspora as well as diaspora of west Asia. Also the growing transnational agenda of organisations like LeT and Jemaah Islamiyah shows that these organisations would take up the mantle of sustaining the terror in their regions of influence and coordinating with the second rung terror organisations. This would mean that these organisations would become logistics providers and the fund raisers for the terror organisations in the region. The technological advancement, new financing routes, Islamic converts and new operational methods would mean that the counter-terrorist units and intelligence agencies in the Asia Pacific region would have to create a large database of the terrorists, their affiliate organisations and should work on sharing of realtime intelligence. The coordination in the high seas would also be possible only when the concerns are addressed at the highest level.

The nexus between the various terror elements is growing and it would be just a matter of time when the logistics for launching a terror attack might be outsourced and financial transactions for the terror groups could be globalised. The pertinent question which might arise at this juncture is then where are the areas which can be the hideouts for the terror groups. The locations in this case could be the idyllic islands of Indonesia or for that matter even close to Aceh and Andaman and Nicobar group of islands. The situation in Bangladesh was not very encouraging for anti-terror efforts in the past but now there is impressive improvement. But with strong measures undertaken by government these terrorist groups might seek refuge in other territories. Also, with Aceh gaining autonomy and facing the problem of many unemployed Muslim youth, it could well be the converging area for the terror groups. The possibilities are many but the efforts are not commensurate with the role of various countries of the region. With India enhancing its military presence in Andaman and Nicobar islands any attack on the Indian military establishment or even the merchant ships would give immense media mileage to the terror groups as well as international funding for the splinter groups of JI or even for that matter LeT supported groups in the region.

Recommendations ■■ Initiate a joint data sharing centre with the authorities in Indonesia for complete landscaping of the terror outfits and their mentors. ■■ Procure a profile of the activities being conducted in Aceh by the terrorist groups. ■■ Undertake a joint study with the Indonesian intelligence authorities to look for the cadres of this new evolving outfit. ■■ Initiate procedures for countering this floating terror population because any strong measures by Indonesian police would mean that many of these groups might infiltrate in Little Andaman’s or other idyllic islands.

There might be a case or two in future of ‘hot pursuit’. ■■ Get better imagery from the low terrestrial satellites for any influx of the Acehnese refugees or boat people. ■■ Create better inter and intra agency coordination with Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia for a detailed database about the probable area of operations of these outfits. ■■ Also procure information about the role of the south Asian terror groups in southeast Asia and the visit of the religious leaders and the funding of religious activities by Saudi Arabian and Pakistani organisations. ■■ Create provincial coordination committees between Andaman and Nicobar Union territory and Aceh Provincial government. ■■ Integrate and enhance joint patrolling of the Six Degree Channel by Indian and Indonesian coast guards. Though ‘IND-INDO CORPAT’ patrolling was initiated in October 2009 but there is need for regular patrolling and information sharing. ■■ The major purpose of this article is not to alarm the community and the decision makers but it is just to show the likely possibilities available to the conglomeration of terror groups and their shifting agendas. As Andaman and Nicobar group of islands has been infested and used as transit route by many refugees and smuggling mafia, so it is important to take note of developments in the Indonesian autonomous province of Aceh. A continuous and enhanced understanding of the developments should be made on the part of Indian intelligence agencies as well as defence establishment to thwart any attacks on Indian interests in the region. The writer is Associate Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA). He has done his PhD from the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. His areas of interest include Southeast Asia, terrorism, defence industry and related economic issues. He has written extensively on the issue of terrorism in Southeast asia, including issues pertaining to radical islam and counter terrorrism policies.

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global security

FIFTH GENERATION WARFARE

Asymmetric

and WMD threats

he current international security environment, where the rise of non-State actors has challenged the State institutions, warrants each nation to have a military plan, which should not only be restricted to cater to the requirements of a conventional war but also have definite well-articulated strategies to deter and defeat adversaries who mostly rely on surprise, deception and asymmetric warfare to achieve their stated objectives. It would be relevant and important if each of the nationStates would evolve a strategy, which will help in tackling unconventional threats emanating from both State and non-State actors.

State proxies

combines surprise and shock to the extent that it demoralises the State and civil society. The larger goal has always been to destabilise and create disturbances and panic in the society. The objective of the terrorist group has always been to inflict damage to both the State and society to a greater extent. It is generally believed that the current asymmetric challenges to the international security environment mostly come from the non-State actors. In this regard, the possession of weapons of mass destruction will always be an attractive asymmetric strategy for the United States’ adversaries. The pace at which the technology has been

The magnitude of asymmetric threats has grown beyond proportions over the years. The nature of asymmetric threats and challenges has been dynamic. The growing networks of terrorists’ groups have created a precarious situation for the State institutions. The asymmetric threats have also proved that the technology alone cannot contain all the emerging threats from non-State actors in particular especially in the current international security environment. The unrivalled technological superiority of any nation in the current global threat scenario will not be sufficient because a number of terrorist groups have made a strong base and the method which the terrorist groups adopt has more to do with mind and strategy and less to do with the technology per se. The September 11 event in 2001 proved this analogy to a greater extent.

Tools of choice It is a well known fact that terrorism

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growing is phenomenal.

WMD security There will always be an attempt from the terrorists’ groups to get hold of any of the components of weapons of mass destruction and hence, the safety and security of the WMD, commonly, characterised as nuclear, chemical and biological weapons has become one of the major challenges among the members of international community in the current security environment. There is a growing concern about the probable threats, which might emanate from the existing stockpiles of WMD either by accident or by design. The

Nukes are not the only weapons of mass destruction ever used in war. Their employment against Japan in Hiroshima and Nagasaki was by a nation-State in a declared war situation. The use of biological and chemical weapons of mass destruction have a long history in conflict situations between nations. However, the essential difference and the main cause for worry is the growing possibility that a rogue State could hand over weapons of mass destruction to terrorists to achieve

Dr. Arvind Kumar

its goals. India’s insistence on a strict international check on Pakistan is not just for self-preservation. It is the fountainhead of the new kind of global warfare.

concern has grown mainly because of the rising influence of the non-State actors. The current new challenges being confronted by the various state institutions have been the result of the behavioural patterns of the terrorist groups. It has been estimated that there will always be an attempt by the nonState actors either to steal or fabricate or with connivance of the State actors catch hold of any of the components of WMD and create panic in the society and create imbalance in the system. How to contain such threats to WMDs has been the major challenge before the

international community in the twenty first century.

Non-nuke WMD It must be emphasised here that in almost all the academic discourses on WMD only nuclear weapons find a prominent place. Nuclear weapons and nuclear fissile materials are not the only WMD. It must be mentioned here that while nuclear weapons were invented just six and half decades ago, biological weapons have been used for centuries and chemical weapons since World War I.

Biological and chemical weapons are as deadly as nuclear weapons except that nuclear weapons have an additional capability of destroying physical infrastructures and locations. Biological and chemical weapons would take the lives silently without destroying any of the infrastructures and locations. It would also be really difficult to ascertain the reasons because these are not quickly lethal in comparison to the nuclear weapons.

Pakistan cited The report of the US commission on the prevention of WMD proliferation and terrorism: “World At Risk” is a good assessment and indicator of the nature of likely threats in future. The US intelligence reported on global trends that the use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely by 2025. It has been clearly highlighted by the US intelligence that such possibility exists because of the growing persistence of the terrorist groups and rogue States. The “World At Risk” report has clearly highlighted that the terrorists are likely to use nuclear or biological weapons in the next five years. The timespan mentioned in the report that the use of nuclear or biological weapons is most likely in the next five years by the terrorist groups in particular has once again reinvigorated the ongoing debate on the global security environment. The greatest dangers highlighted by the commission on the prevention of weapons of mass destruction proliferation and terrorism are the rapid proliferation of nuclear technology in countries such as Pakistan, North Korea and Iran.

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global security

FIFTH GENERATION WARFARE

The “World At Risk” report has clearly highlighted the degree of vulnerability emerging from Pakistan and to quote from the report, “were one to map terrorism and weapons of mass destruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan” Biotech infrastructure The ongoing development in the field of biotechnology and the mushrooming of a number of biotech industries worldwide have become a major source of concern for the international community because of the lack of adequate security in this sector. Undoubtedly, the existing poor security in the biotech industries has increased the vulnerability and the terrorist groups might like to exploit this situation and get hold of some of the biological agents. The biological agents can be used as a silent killer and to a greater extent serve the purpose of inflicting damage on the civilian casualties. The United States and Russia together account for almost the entire worldwide stockpile of biological and chemical weapons. It would be roughly about 61,000 metric tons. It must be mentioned here that the available stockpile is in fact a lethal dose for 65 billion people which is exactly ten times more than the current estimated global population of 6.5 billion people. It is a well known fact that the terrorists have already tried chemical and biological weapons – nerve gas in the Tokyo subway, anthrax mailed to US public figures. As of now, the use of nuclear and fissile material has only been left out.

Dirty nukes

Bio-terrorism

It is widely believed among the members of the international community that the Al Qaeda group and other terrorist networks must be trying to procure and obtain nuclear materials. It is also generally believed that the Al Qaeda group must have the required and relevant expertise available with them to make at least a crude nuclear device or may like to use radiological material in the form of the so called dirty bombs.

From a bio-terrorism perspective, the threat assessment done so far has been on the likely scenario and the possibility of getting hold of biological weapons and its use by the terrorist group. The possibility of such action will always be high. The use of anthrax in particular by a terrorist organisation in due course has certainly high probability because it does not require much of infrastructure.

The most difficult and first step in making a nuclear bomb is obtaining the fissile materials either plutonium or highly enriched uranium. The terrorist groups might like to adopt a number of alternate routes to acquire nuclear weapons and nuclear materials. The first option might be to make an attempt in stealing one from the stockpile of a country possessing such weapons in nexus with the security. The second option would be to buy from a country if that country is in dire crisis and overtly supporting terrorism. The “World At Risk” report has clearly highlighted the degree of vulnerability emerging from Pakistan and to quote from the report, “were one to map terrorism and weapons of mass destruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan”.

Plug leaks Hence, it is a well recognised fact that Pakistan has been supporting the terrorist networks both overtly and covertly. There have been a number of instances to prove this. If the terrorists are successful in obtaining and acquiring fissile materials, it would be much easier for them to transport and detonate it. The current challenge has been to prevent the theft or illegal purchase of fissile materials because stopping terrorists from transporting and detonating a bomb would be a tough proposition. The priority should be given in the terms of controlling or containing at source itself. There have been 18 incidents involving seizure of stolen highly enriched uranium or plutonium that had been confirmed by the relevant States so far. The International Atomic Energy Agency was able to detect it through its safeguards and inspection mechanism.

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The international community would certainly require taking a serious note of the threats emanating from the bioagents in the form of the biological warfare. International cooperation is important for information exchange and extraditing bio-terrorists. The existing Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention (BTWC) and its efficacy in the context of the emerging challenge should be given top priority. The verification clause in BTWC requires a special mention so that it becomes stringent and robust. The requirements would also be in the field of developing capabilities in i-forensics for dealing with bioterrorism and bio-warfare. It should be the job of international security systems to detect laboratories used for the development of pathogens. The international community should put all its efforts in developing a scientifically and legally acceptable system for rapid diagnosis and forensics of pathogenic agents. Such development would help deter the non-State actors to try and acquire such bio-agents.

Dauntng task The global security challenges in the current international security environment pose immense and complex issues of daunting nature. This is only because of the dynamic nature of asymmetric threats and growing vulnerabilities from the weapons of mass destruction. The current global security milieu warrants the international community to forge an international consensus and a coalition to secure weapons of mass destruction.

The writer is Professor and Head of Department of Geopolitics and International Relations at Manipal University.

global security

DENIAL REGIMES

One direct evidenciary effect of climate change is that it has submerged several baleful technology denial regimes based on the concept that dual-use properties will inevitably lead to proliferation of weapons. Globalisation did the rest as outsourcing was more economical than behaving like “rodents with gold” and high-tech laboratories began shifting research and development activities from developed to developing countries.

n international security issues technological denial has been central to all discourses and continues to hold center stage. The two dimensions to it, characterised by the East-West and the North-South dynamics broadly reflect two historic origins of the denial regime - the pre-Cold War and the postCold War. While the East-West divide (denial of any advanced technology flow to the socialist countries) has met its demise with the end of the Cold War the North-South dynamic (denial of advanced technology to those countries that had not signed the Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty (NPT) continues evidenced by a sense of grievance among countries of the South at being marginalised under the international economic order.

Illogical regime In both the periods, the developed nations have used technology denial as their cornerstone strategy for controlling power in the principle determinants to a nation’s power - science and technology, military capability, socioeconomic conditions and indirectly even the population. The present technological denial regime has been strengthened now to include missile development and chemical and biological weapons. It targets even those countries that have signed the NPT, but are considered anti-US, for example, Iraq, Libya and Iran. However while the strategy was effective in the past decades, its discriminatory nature today combines with an array of changing forces to challenge its practicality and relevance in the 21st century.

Technology denial manifested when the West realised after the World War II that strategic advantage over the Communist bloc was greatly dependent upon its technological superiority. Thus the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (COCOM) was created in 1949 for the purpose of preventing Western companies and countries from selling strategic goods and services to the Eastern bloc countries behind the “iron curtain.”

Wassenaar Arrangement With the fall of communism in the Soviet Union and other countries of Eastern Europe, the military and political threat that had fuelled the creation of COCOM had largely dissipated. However a new threat emerged - the threat of State-sponsored terrorism. The hectic military demobilisation that started with the end of Cold War led to transfer of sophisticated technologies from the government to private hands. Western governments quickly came to the realisation that export restrictions were still needed to prevent rogue States from acquiring advanced technology. The Wassenaar Arrangement on export controls for conventional arms and dual-use goods and technologies was thus established in 1995.

Imposed compliance Other several instruments such as Nuclear Suppliers’ Group, Australia Group, Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) etc. have been used over the years to affect technology denial. The powers in the developed North instituted a set of tighter and

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more rigorous supply side restrictions on the transfer and movement of material and technology designated of proliferation concern. A set of treaty obligations focused on technology denial has held the proliferation of weapons and technology for the past over forty years. The major non-proliferation treaties were framed to either limit (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) or eliminate (Chemical Weapons Convention, Biological Weapons Convention) the number of legitimate actors who may possess such weapons. The treaties were embellished with the facade of facilitating technology transfer for peaceful uses of the technology in a weak attempt to bridge the North-South divide and usher universal compliance.

Blanket denials Along with these global nonproliferation treaties several other multilateral regimes to limit access to technology via export control emerged in the last few decades. The main thrust of these technology control regimes was not only to bar specific equipment that could be used in nuclear, missile or military programmes but also to impose blanket bans and bar technology that could produce or help develop equipment that could be used for such purposes, making the technology denial pervasive. The controversial dual use argument was stretched to stall civilian applications of technology in diverse fields for social and economic development in the developing and emerging economies. The best

coalitions example of the ludicrous denial share was India, whose technology denial share ranged from a high performance supercomputer (deemed dangerous) to cryogenic engine used in the space launch vehicles.

Globalisation However the demobilisation post the Cold War also coincided with an array of new economic forces that led to globalisation. Globalisation slowly eroded the State’s ability to control many dual use items. Private players investing in dual use technologies in the developed powers realised long term potential benefits of shifting their businesses to the developing world with lower labour costs and more permissive regulatory mechanisms.

legitimate commercial purposes or for development of nuclear, biological or chemical weapons. The denial regimes thus increasingly weakened with the forced diffusion of ideology and structural measures to control proliferation. The rapid pace of technological advancement, lowering of trade barriers, meteoric rise in communications and information technologies, transportation technologies, rise of multinational corporations in controlling power in international politics, growing vox populi of the non-government organisations ushered in a set of dynamics that further confounded the ability of denial regimes to meet

Cdr. (Retd.) Sunil Chauhan

the non-proliferation challenges.

ideological

Concomitantly, technology denial led to technology self reliance. Forced with denial, the developing nations spurred technological innovation, science and research and development for a strong technological foundation. Denied supercomputing technologies India developed its own PARAM super Computer and in 1998 CRAY which had denied supercomputers to India in the 1980’s was forced to open a subsidiary in India. While some nations gave priority to science and nation development individually such as China and North Korea, other emerging economies have begun to forge strong alliances based on global knowledge and innovation networks spurring internationalisation of technology.

G-77 Countries of the developing world adopted export oriented economic

The developed world moved their manufacturing and research and development facilities to the offshore locations in the developing world to reap economic benefits. Officials and stakeholders were unwilling to sacrifice the financial gains to prevent proliferation. I n f o r m a t i o n technology revolution further hastened globalisation and more countries than before could make products that could be used either for

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global security

models and the formation of the Group of 77 by developing nations led to the demand of a New International Economic Order (NIEO) which called for technology transfer to the developing nations and redeployment of some developed countries’ industries to developing nations. The convergence of global development and internationalisation of technology and emerging global challenges of increased energy demands further eroded the viability of technology denial strategy. Widespread diffusion of technology has brought about unprecedented advances to global development, but has also increased global energy demand. The rising energy demands combined with concerns of climate change is forcing a number of developing nations to focus on developing nuclear power for meeting the increasing energy demands.

Dual-use test The phenomenal growth in biotechnology has also put the viability of dual-use technology to severe test, as with the industrial sector pharmaceutical companies in the developed world started moving their manufacturing and research and development to the developing world to cut costs and take advantage of the fewer legal restrictions. This led to local industries competing with the leading nations and numerous developing nations such as Argentina, Brazil, India, China, Cuba, Egypt, Mexico and South Africa are developing significant research capacity and fast approaching the leading edge of biotechnology applications. These technology advances and rapid pace of outsourcing the research and development and production of microelectronics, biotechnology agents, pharmaceuticals to the developing nations continue to outpace the ability of the governments to implement adequate restrictions.

New dynamics Evidently the confluence of rapidly advancing science and technology and globalisation is threatening the traditional State-centric approaches for technology denial. The new powerful

global security

DENIAL REGIMES dynamics of global challenges of climate change, depleting fossil fuel reserves, water scarcity and loss of bio-diversity are placing an increasing demand on internationalisation of technology directed towards creating global common good. The internationalisation of technology is evident in all emerging economies as the center of science and technology has started to shift from the developed world to the developing world. India houses the research and development centers of over 400 multinational companies including GE, IBM, Microsoft, Du Pont, Shell and General Motors. China is the hub of most research and development and manufacturing of high technology products in integrated communication technologies and telecom. South Korea boasts of an impressive array of microelectronics innovations. This shift has been recognised by the advanced nations. A report “Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances” by the National Research Council of USA in 2005 projected that the US would no longer lead in all relevant technologies. With increasing pressure to shorten research and development times, innovations are beginning to have multiple geographic and organisational sources of technology leading to seamless creation of laboratories around the world riding on global information networks that allow real time management and operation of laboratories across the world. The developing nations are increasingly becoming open to the internationalisation of technology. The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor is an excellent example of the erosion of technology denial regime. Faced with increasing global energy demands and reducing global gas emissions countries with diverse technology and economic status and ideologies India, China, USA, Russia, South Korea, the EU and Japan have come together in this experimental project aimed at fusion power plants. The Large Hadron Collider, the world’s largest and highest energy particle collider, built by the European Organisation for Nuclear Research

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(ERN) is another example of the diffusion of technology denial. It is funded and built in collaboration with thousands of scientists and engineers from over 100 nations. Both Statesponsored new models of global cooperation in technology as well as public-private partnerships are being forged to face the common global challenges. The Global Research Alliance is a network of public research and development institutions from India, Australia, Malaysia, South Africa, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, Finland and the USA. This alliance is tackling diverse global programmes from climate change, food scarcity to providing internet access in rural Africa.

Technology governance Faced with this internationalisation of technology for common global goals, security concerns dictate a radical shift from technology denial to technology governance. However operationalising the shift from denial to governance will require bridging the securitydevelopment divide. The traditional technology denial approach for security challenges evidences a discriminatory international economic order and hinders universal acceptance of the denial regimes. A new engagement model to address the cause of proliferation rather than its symptoms must be developed while effectively addressing the conditions in developing nations and failed states in order to promote development. Measures for technology governance must rest on the principles of common global good setting aside the North-South divide.

The writer is an independent researcher focusing on international security issues, climate change and disaster risk management. He was commissioned in the Indian Navy in 1985. He is a Fellow of the International Congress on Disaster Management (FICDM) and a Certified Master Trainer of Trainers from Emergency Management Institute (EMI), Emmitsburgh, US. He is also a resource for Indian Institutes and UN Agencies for training on disaster management, conducting table top exercises and risk assessment.

Conference

global security

HUMAN CENTRIC

contemporary

world: NEW PARADIGMS

Dr. Arpita Basu Roy

The realisation that under-development can lead to insecurity can become the cornerstone of national policies directed at the individual. Yet insecurities growing out of health, ethnic and sectarian and environmental concerns also tend to impinge on the well-being of societies and migrations and forced evictions extend their spread beyond statal boundaries. The United Nations Development Programme has focused on universal concerns that transcend the traditional paradigms of a balance of power.

he orthodox / traditional view of security has been that the theory and practice of security in world politics should be synonymous with statism (the idea that the sovereign State should be the highest focus of loyalty and decision-making), strategy (the manipulation of military power and force) and stability (the promotion of order in the ‘anarchical society’). Therefore this trinity identified the

referents, selected the threats and determined legitimate knowledge.[i] For several decades, the predominance of the realist paradigm had silenced every other paradigm. It was the security of the State against external threats which was to be achieved by increasing military capabilities that remained the primary focus of this line of thought.

Balance of power This focus on a State-centric definition of security grew out of realist assumptions of a sharp [i] Ken Booth, “Realities of Security: Editor’s Introduction”, International Relations, Volume 18, Number 1, March 2004, Sage Publications, p. 5.

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HUMAN CENTRIC

Human security draws its inspiration from the human rights tradition. Some ideas and concepts of human security is fundamental to the human rights tradition. Both approaches use the individual as the main referent and both argue that a wide range of issues (i.e. civil rights, cultural identity, access to education and healthcare) are fundamental to human dignity boundary between domestic ‘order’ and international ‘anarchy’, a ‘state of nature’ where war is an ever-present possibility.[ii] It was believed that, given the lack of an international authority with the power to curb others’ aggressive ambitions, States must rely on their own capabilities for the achievement of security. Realists have nevertheless accepted that such behaviour by the States leads to what can be called a “security dilemma” i.e. what is justified by one State as legitimate security-enhancing measures are likely to be perceived by others as a threatening military build-up. Such a situation can lead to destabilising arms race which in turn reduces overall security of the system and its memberStates. The escalation of arms race between the Soviet Union and the USA could be cited as a classic case of security dilemma, yet the tight bipolarity produced a balance which for some scholars like Waltz assured a considerable measure of security.

Human insecurity The new technology of violence, nuclear weapons, introduced by 1980s in the name of national security led to a world view dominated by US strategic thinking about nuclear weapons and the security problems of the US and its NATO allies who assumed that since nuclear wars were too dangerous to fight, security was synonymous with nuclear deterrence and nuclear power balancing. While on the one hand, nuclear

weapons made certain people very insecure, on the other hand, national security thinking had reached its height at a time when Reagan administration’s Strategic Defense Initiative made clear, the State could no longer assure the security of citizens within its own boundaries. To those critical of realist strategic thinking, the military security of the State seemed synonymous with the insecurity of the individuals.

Universal concerns In the post Cold War period, a straightforward expansion of security to include development was made with the United Nations Development Programme’s concept of Human Security, launched in 1994.[iii] Human Security has the advantage of being promoted from a strong institutional base and, like Common Security in the early 1980s, combines politicalactivist and academic agendas. The original UNDP formulation opted for an expansion of security along several dimensions. The ‘logic of security’ should be broadened beyond territorial defence, national interests and nuclear deterrence to include ‘universal concerns’ and the prevention of conflicts, but also crucially a global cooperative effort to eradicate poverty and underdevelopment. The referent object was shifted from the nation-State to that of the ‘people’, and to be ‘people-centred’ was to be ‘concerned with how people live and breathe in a society, how freely they exercise their many choices, how much access they have to markets and social opportunities – and whether they live in conflict or in peace’. This approach implied a radical widening of the types of threats and sectors to which security was applicable to food, health, the environment, population growth, disparities in economic opportunities, migration, drug trafficking and terrorism.

New paradigms Dr. Mahbub-ul Haq first drew global attention to the concept of human security in the United Nations Development Programme’s 1994 Human Development Report and sought to influence the UN’s 1995 World Summit on Social Development in Copenhagen. The UNDP’s 1994 Human Development Report’s

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definition of human security argues that the scope of global security should be expanded to include threats in seven areas, namely economic security (requiring an assured basic income for individuals as unemployment problems constitute an important factor underlying political tensions and ethnic violence), food security (requiring that all people at all times have both physical and economic access to basic food and that there is an equitable distribution of food), health security (guarantee of a minimum protection from diseases and unhealthy lifestyles for the poor due to malnutrition and insufficient supply of medicine, clean water or other necessities for healthcare), environmental security (protection from the short and long-term ravages of nature, man-made threats in nature and deterioration of the natural environment) personal security (protection from physical violence from States, sub-state actors or individuals) community security (protection from sectarian and ethnic violence where traditional communities, particularly minority ethnic groups are often threatened) political security (guarantee of basic human rights and protection from political repression, systematic torture, ill treatment or disappearance). Since then, human security has been receiving more attention from the key global development institutions, such as the World Bank. Tadjbakhsh, among others, traces the evolution of human security in international organisations, concluding that the concept has been manipulated and transformed considerably since 1994 to fit organisational interests. It is assumed that there is a real security gap in the contemporary geopolitical world. Referred to as “new wars”, this concept exists as the core of security studies’ increasing need to be understood in terms of its broader but equally significant implications in the modern world. “New wars” and pernicious global challenges centre on various global risks, including the spread of disease, vulnerability to natural disasters, poverty and homelessness. Therefore this new [ii] K. N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Mass, 1979, p. 102. [iii] United Nations Development Programme (1994): Human Development Report.

Intertwined Despite these similarities, the relationship with development is one of the most contested areas of human security. “Freedom from fear” advocates, such as Andrew Mack, argue that human security should focus on the achievable goals of decreasing individual vulnerability to violent conflict, rather than broadly defined goals of economic and social development. Others, such as Tadjbakhsh and Chenoy, argue that human development and human security are inextricably linked since progress in one enhances the chances of progress in another while failure in one increases risk of failure of another.

language of “human security” becomes essential in a world where civil society has been instrumental in shaping up discourses and introducing a new dimension into world politics. Human security applies to both security and development, while relating the terms and the concept’s philosophical underpinnings to human security as a practice.

Underdevelopment Human security could be said to further enlarge the scope for examining the causes and consequences of underdevelopment, by seeking to bridge the divide between development and security. Too often, militaries didn’t address or factor in the underlying causes of violence and insecurity while development workers often underplayed the vulnerability of development models to violent conflict. Human security springs from a growing consensus that these two fields need to be more fully integrated in order to enhance security for all. It is argued that security and development are deeply interconnected. Human security forms an important part of people’s well-being and is therefore an objective of development. An objective of development is “the enlargement of human choices”.

Vicious cycles Insecurity cuts life short and thwarts the use of human potential,

thereby affecting the reaching of this objective. Lack of human security has adverse consequences on economic growth and therefore development. Some development costs are obvious. For example, in wars, people who join the army or flee can no longer work productively. Also, destroying infrastructure reduces the productive capacity of the economy. Imbalanced development that involves horizontal inequalities is an important source of conflict. Therefore, vicious cycles of lack of development which leads to conflict, then to lack of development, can readily emerge. Likewise, virtuous cycles are possible, with high levels of security leading to development, which further promotes security in return.

Human development Further, it could also be said that the practice of human development and human security share three fundamental elements. First, human security and human development are both peoplecentered. They challenge the orthodox approach to security and development i.e. State security and liberal economic growth respectively. Both emphasise people are be the ultimate ends but not means. Both treat humans as agents and should be empowered to participate in the course. Second, both perspectives are multidimensional. Both address people’s dignity as well as their material and physical concerns. Third, both schools of thought consider poverty and inequality as the root causes of individual vulnerability.

The application of human security is highly relevant within the area of humanitarian intervention, as it focuses on addressing the deep-rooted and multi-factorial problems inherent in humanitarian crises and offers more long term resolutions.

Military intervention In general, the term humanitarian intervention generally applies when a State uses force against another State in order to alleviate suffering in the latter State. These principles on humanitarian intervention are the product of a debate pushed by United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan. He posed a challenge to the international community to find a new approach to humanitarian intervention that responded to its inherent problems [iv]. In 2001, the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty (ICISS) produced the “The Responsibility to protect”, a comprehensive report detailing how the “right of humanitarian intervention” could be exercised. It was considered a triumph for the human security approach as it emphasised and gathered much needed attention.

Humanitarian intervention The report illustrates the usefulness of the human security approach, particularly its ability to examine the [iv] ICISS "The Responsibility to Protect: Report of the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty, Ottawa: International Development Research Council" (2001).

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global security

HUMAN CENTRIC

cause of conflicts that explain and justify humanitarian intervention. In addition, it could also act as a paradigm for identifying, prioritising and resolving large transnational problems, one of the fundamental factors that act as a stimulus for humanitarian intervention in the first place. However, human security still faces difficulties concerning the scope of its applicability, as large problems requiring humanitarian intervention usually are built up from an array of socio-political, cultural and economic problems that may be beyond the limitations of humanitarian projects. On the other hand, successful examples of the use of human security principles within interventions can be found.

Human rights Human security draws its inspiration from the human rights tradition. Some ideas and concepts of human security is fundamental to the human rights tradition. Both approaches use the individual as the main referent and both argue that a wide range of issues (i.e. civil rights, cultural identity, access to education and healthcare) are fundamental to human dignity. A major difference between the two models is in their approach to addressing threats to human dignity and survival. Whilst the human rights framework takes a legalistic approach, the human security framework, by utilising a diverse range of actors, adopts flexible and issuespecific approaches, which can operate at local, national or international levels.

Gender concerns Human security addresses the serious neglect of gender concerns under the traditional security model. Traditional security’s focus on external military threats to the State has meant that the majority of threats women face have been overlooked. By focusing on the individual, the human security model aims to address the security concerns of both women and men equally. Women are often the worst victims of violence and conflict: they form the majority of civilian deaths; the majority of refugees; and, are often the victims of cruel and degrading practices, such as rape. Women’s security is also threatened by unequal access to resources, services

and opportunities. Human security seeks to empower women, through education, participation and access, as gender equality is seen as a necessary precondition for peace, security and a prosperous society.

Taking a constructivist perspective that combines interests and ideas, Suhrke holds that this progressive conception of Human Security suited Canadian aspirations for a middlepower status and Norwegian ambitions about a UN Security Council seat in 20012003. These aspirations and ambitions coalesced with global structural shifts in the 1990s that made more room for normative foreign policies based on humanitarian concerns.

Alternative concepts Critics of the concept argue that its vagueness undermines its effectiveness [v] that it has become little more than a vehicle for activists wishing to promote certain causes; and that it does not help the research community understand what security means or help decision makers to formulate good policies. Critical advocates of Human Security have either tied it to a Critical Security Studies agenda or linked it to neo-liberal economics. The call for a different approach to security and development studies is definitely a positive promotion of an alternative point of view. In today’s world there is a fundamental need for further theoretical refinement and academic gathering on issues that affect our global village and its inhabitants. What is crucial about the Human Security debate is that it shows the value of institutionalisation. Although Human Security did articulate a very broad agenda, it also provided the reason for a diversity of political actors seeking to boost support for development issues and humanitarian foreign policies.

Foreign policy Norway, Canada and Japan were the first States to adopt Human Security and have linked the concept with the ‘pre-eminent progressive values of the 1990s: human rights, international humanitarian law and socio-economic development based on equity’. The Canadian government has also provided funding for the Canadian Consortium on Human Security, ‘an academic-based network promoting policy relevant research on human security’.

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[v] Paris, Roland, “Human Security Paradigm Shift or Hot Air?”, International Security, Vol. 26, No. 2, 2001. The writer is Fellow at the Maulana Abul Kalam Azad Institute of Asian Studies (MAKAIAS), Kolkata. She has been working on Central and South Asia, with Afghanistan being the area of her specific interest since 2000. She has contributed articles on peacebuilding, population movement, gender issues, problems of transitional politics and regional cooperation to several research journals, edited books and encyclopaedia.

global security

ASCENSION

Jagdish Prasad Verma

India: a superpower?

World's Largest oil Refinery - Reliance 76

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global security

ASCENSION

'Will India become a superpower?' This is a question that nags every Indian. With the nature of problems that plague India, the chances of the country becoming a superpower are remote. As the visionary President of India, Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam said:

“India can become the superpower of the world in a matter of 15-20 years if we can elect a good leadership to lead us and rule us. It is the leadership of the country that moves the country forward or backward”.

hat makes a country a super power can be discerned from the characteristics of the countries that have been acknowledged as important powers in the second half of the 20th century. All of them have ■■ a sizeable population.

but

manageable

■■ been endowed with unity, political cohesion and stability. ■■ structured their national economic orders which are productive and competitive. ■■ trained manpower resources and high level of technological capacities. ■■ high levels of defence or possession of nuclear and missile weaponisation. ■■

democratic system (except China)

Benchmarks Keeping these benchmarks in view, is India capable of superpower status in the 21st century? The aspects favouring us are, despite cogitation and tension, we are a democracy in which civil society is highly committed to democratic institutions, we have trained manpower resources, we have high technological potentialities, we possess’ nuclear weapons and missile capacities. We are now a leading country in the world community. There is an old maxim “everybody salutes the rising sun” and in the present era India has given reasons enough to not only be known as the “rising super power”, but the one which no other country can possibly afford to ignore. The past has witnessed many historical changes, upheavals, revolutions, destructions and reemergences. And India is no different.

Ghazni plundered it, Babur enslaved it, Bigots tried breaking its spirit, the Dutch depressed it, the French demoralised it, the English defeated it and the caste bug tortured it, the dogmas tormented it, cyclones ravaged, earthquakes eroded and famines benumbed it and death stared at its face but despite all these, India has not only survived but has grown stronger after each crisis. What has helped India to outlive and outlast bad times and outgrow wounds? The answer lies in India’s and Indians’ incredible ability to smile at adversity and its sheer openness to other cultures.

Plus points With nearly 1.1 billion inhabitants, India is the second largest country on earth in population and seventh largest in geographical area, over 1.1 million square miles. This is almost 1,000 people for every square mile of area nationwide - much denser than even China. Since achieving independence from British rule in 1947, it has seen its share of conflict, struggle and setbacks. Although India still faces many challenges, it is now poised to reach a higher position on the world scene than at any previous time. The Indian economy has grown at an average of around 6 per cent annually over the past decade and 8 per cent per year over the past three years - among the fastest in the world. It boasts an emerging middle class and increasing gross domestic product, exports, employment and foreign investment. This is complemented by a roaring stock market (index value up by a third in 2005 and by 200 per cent since 2001), low external debt and large foreign exchange reserves.

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Recent visits of leaders and officials from the United States, France, Germany and Russia have spotlighted India’s rise. These wealthier nations see India as a trading partner with enormous potential.

Matching China Although it has not yet matched the financial performance of China currently the fastest-growing economy in the world - according to some analysts, India shows even more long-term potential for rapid growth. Leaders from both nations have discussed the creation of a ChineseIndian common market based on the European Union model. Although only an idea at present, if realised, it would be the largest economic system in the world, home for about 2.5 billion consumers - almost 40 per cent of the human race (or 3 of every 8 people on earth). India’s growth becomes more impressive in light of the fact that it is driven by a fraction of its population. Much of the nation remains a picture of rural poverty. Nearly all foreign investment in India goes to its six most urban states, with 22 other less developed states virtually ignored.

Gurgaon phenomenon This gap between city and country is keenly felt in places such as Gurgaon, a suburb of the Indian capital New Delhi: “In a land still plagued by deep poverty and backwardness, Gurgaon has become a renowned home of international call centers, businessprocessing operations and informationtechnology firms. There are gleaming, glass-paned high-tech towers, condominium blocks, multiplexes and shopping malls, where Indians dine at

Ruby Tuesday, browse for Samsung electronics, or kick the tires at a Toyota, Ford, or Chevy dealer. If one overlooks the dusty pockets of poverty nearby, a few water buffaloes picking at garbage near shanty towns, the look is more Southern California office park than the India of yore”. Despite the problems seen in India’s underdeveloped countryside - for example, massive unmet infrastructure needs; more illiterate citizens than any other single nation—there are several areas in which the nation excels. These particular specialised talents have allowed a tiny percentage of the populace - perhaps less than 1 per cent to spearhead its move towards a higher standing in the world order.

Intellectual capital India’s economy is divided between agriculture (which accounts for a quarter of the gross national product), manufacturing (constituting another quarter) and the high-tech service sector, which now makes up fully half of the gross national product. Striving to become a “knowledge superpower,” it hopes to skip the intermediate step of industrial development that has preceded other nations’ march into the

Information Age. Scientific and information technology companies from around the world are opening research and development labs in India - more than 100 in the past five years. One mainstay of the new economy is software development, with ever more global firms outsourcing to India the time-intensive work of programming. Businesses worldwide also rely on the country for customer service - phone calls from around the world are directed to call centers in Indian cities such as Bangalore. Other developing markets include pharmaceutical and biotechnology research. Currently, the majority of top American companies send some of their IT work to India, and there is little evidence of a slowdown in this trend. The business world is also looking in India’s direction. Graduates of the nation’s business programmes are in high demand among multinational corporations, with each graduating class commanding a higher average salary than the one before. Those who complete MBA degrees at schools such as the Indian Institute of Management can now expect starting salaries ranging from US$ 75,000 at Indian firms to over US$ s200,000 outside the country.

This is comparable to graduates of top American business schools such as Harvard, Stanford and Dartmouth testimony to the market value of Indian talent in this area of study.

Military power As its clout has grown, India has placed a high priority on improving its military capabilities as well. New Delhi has not joined 187 other nations in signing the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and appeared on the world’s radar screen as a nuclear-armed nation in May 1998, with the detonation of five warheads in the desert near the border of Pakistan. This disturbed many governments around the globe, naturally including that of Pakistan, which responded with nuclear tests of its own. This stand-off was the turning point that began India’s pursuit of a fullfledged nuclear weapons programme. According to The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, additional nuclear missile tests occurred in the summer of 2004; since then, the Indian Defence Ministry has earmarked US$ 2 billion annually to build 300 to 400 weapons over the next 5 to 7 years.

August 2010 Defence AND security alert

global security

ASCENSION

India maintains a “no first strike” nuclear policy and asserts that it only seeks enough nuclear weaponry to effectively deter aggressors. US President George W. Bush, during a March 2006 visit with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, announced cooperation between the two countries on civilian nuclear programmes and had previously called India a “responsible” nuclear nation. These measures drew

The business world is also looking in India’s direction. Graduates of the nation’s business

programmes

demand

high

multinational

are

among

corporations,

with each graduating class commanding

higher

average salary than the one before. Those who complete MBA degrees at schools such as the Indian Institute of Management can now expect starting salaries ranging from US$ 75,000 at Indian firms to over US$ 200,000 outside the country an American diplomatic line between India and other nations that have nixed participation in the NPT, such as North Korea and Iran. Whatever its nuclear aspirations, the country has a long military shopping list. Last year, it announced plans to build the first aircraft carrier ever put to sea by a developing nation and to lease two nuclear submarines from Russia. America has openly discussed the sale of naval vessels, combat aircraft, patrol aircraft and helicopters to India. One former US ambassador to India opined, “Of course we should sell advanced weaponry to India. The million-man

Indian army actually fights, unlike the post-modern militaries of many of our European allies”.

Relations with China Many have compared India’s pattern of growth to its neighbour, China. The countries have much in common physical borders, immense populations, similar challenges, ancient civilisations and quickly-rising economies. India also measures itself against China, coveting its economic power and international standing, including its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. Though a degree of tension does remain between the two nations, with lingering memories of the brief 1962 war in which China soundly defeated India, the relationship between these two Asian giants is warming up. Trade between them is now increasing at a vigorous pace and diplomatic relations are at a post-1962 highpoint. Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, during a recent visit to New Delhi, hailed cooperation between the two nations as the driving force of a new “Asian Century.” Indian Prime Minister Singh spoke of the potential for India and China to rearrange the world order by working together. Many have pointed out that their economic strengths seem to be tailormade for a partnership. India seeks to be a major player in the computer software world in the same way that China is in the area of hardware. Cooperation between Beijing and New Delhi could prove a dominant force in the information technology market. Both nations have a voracious appetite for natural resources and a recent energy deal neatly symbolised the new Sino-Indian dynamic: India acquired a 20 per cent share in the development of the largest onshore oilfield in Iran. The venture happens to be operated and 50 per cent owned, by Sinopec - China’s State-run oil company. However, India could seek to undercut China’s manufacturing prices (as China did with many Southeast Asian countries in the 1990s). But it is more likely to pursue a different segment of the world market by producing higher-quality goods, as

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well as entirely different products. Time will tell exactly how the relationship will mix competition and cooperation. These two nations both aspire to “first-world” status - and economic gains could be the incentive for a more tightly allied Asia.

Debilitating fsactors Today, however, there is a sense of optimism about India’s prospects, although the government is seen as the major impediment in the country’s progress. 1. Religious extremism: Long term trends indicate that liberals and moderates in every religious community in India are on the defensive. 2. Left wing extremism: Extremism in the form of the Naxalite movement, which is a result of geographical reasons and also social and political forces, owing to the continued dispossession and deprivation of tribal people in India. 3. Corruption: The corruption and corrosion of the power center in India, as a result of political parties functioning as family firms rather than open, transparent political systems. 4. Decline of public institutions: This includes universities, police, civil services, the judiciary (except for higher judiciary) etc. 5. Rich-poor divide: The increasing gap between the rich and the poor which is particularly manifested through farmer suicides in India, a phenomenon that has become pervasive only in the last 10-15 years, perhaps because there is now the expectation of a ‘good life’ that did not exist before. 6. Environmental degradation: The degradation at a local level, which is impacting people’s lives in very real ways, whether in the form of massive depletion of underground aquifers, chemical contamination of soil, death of rivers, loss of species etc. 7. Apathy of the media: Apathy in covering issues of rising income inequality, environmental degradation. 8. Political chaos: The political fragmentation manifests as coalition

governments at both the central and regional levels, which makes it very difficult to forge sustainable long term policies in the realm of health, education, etc. 9. Border disputes: India’s unresolved border disputes, especially in Kashmir and the North-east (Nagaland and Manipur) which indicates that there are parts of India that are not comfortable with being part of India. 10. Unstable neighbour: India’s increasingly unstable neighbourhood is another serious impediment to our superpower ambitions.

demand driven, it performs / produces under strict guidelines set down by the government. The kind of position and image both enjoy in the eyes of other countries can well be imagined. Foreign investors look at China as a relatively short-term opportunity, where political or internal unrest can wipe out everything at one blow. India on the other hand offers long-term possibilities for growth, even though the returns may not be that huge in the short term. India has an immense resource of

India has immense capital that is lying dormant with individuals due to lack of awareness about investment instruments as well as trustworthy avenues for investments. Gold in the possession of individual families is an example as well as result of this situation. The Indian market is very huge and it can support any degree of growth. The country has much more natural resources in comparison to many other developed countries. Considering these strengths, if India is ruled well with the

Strongest opponent Now that the world has identified India and China as two of the most powerful emerging nations who can actually become strong enough to threaten the cushy universe of the First World, it becomes imperative to undertake a comparative view of the strengths and weaknesses of both. While India is a democracy, created as a republic after the passing of the rule from the British in 1947, China, ostensibly a republic, was forged on the anvil of a Communist takeover under Mao Zedong. It established a dictatorial socialist system that survives in most forms except for one marked difference, an open market system economy that is free in as much as the Politburo lets it be. This system was put in place under forward-looking leader Deng Xiaoping in 1978. India on the other hand worked for almost 40 years under a socialist pattern under a democratic system that laid the foundation for its nascent infrastructure. But it was during the 1990s that a liberal economy was inaugurated and the resultant bounty is still being reaped. In fact, continuous changes in policy pushed India to increasingly merge its economy with the rest of the world. In fact, India has grown steadily at an average of 6 per cent since then. While India has an economy that is growing from the grassroots, Chinese economy’s roots are not set from the individual up but from the government down. The Chinese economy is not really

experienced, high caliber professionals in all spheres of knowledge and technology. There is no goal that these professionals cannot achieve, if the right conditions are provided, because they are as good as anyone else in the developed countries. The achievements of India and Indians worldwide in areas of space technology, nuclear technology, agricultural research and software development give a glimpse of what this sleeping tiger is capable of. India has economically and industrially advanced to a level from where further development can be much more accelerated.

right economic and social policies, India has all the potential to achieve a growth rate of 13 per cent which would take the 1999 per capita income of US$ 1600 to US$ 34,000 by the year 2025, which would be equal to the UK per capita income in 2025, assuming that the 1999 UK per capita income of US$ 22,000 grows at 2 per cent.

The writer is Sr. Research Fellow, Dept. of Defence & Strategic Studies, Allahabad Central University, Allahabad.

August 2010 Defence AND security alert

global security

cartoon laugh n relax!

Conference

The nation’s capital was the center stage for the Security India 2010 Conference held on 8 July 2010 at Hotel Le Meridian, New Delhi The Security India 2010 Conference attracted over 200 delegates. Several officials from APDI, Border Security Force (BSF), Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), CAPSI, Indian Air Force, Indian Army, Indian Navy, Integrated Defence Staff, Prasar Bharti, Bureau of Police, Research and Development, National Informatics Center (NIC), National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA), etc. were present at the event sharing and learning ways and means to individually, as well as, collectively equip the nation in its endeavour to safeguard the infrastructure and lives of its citizens. With the Commonwealth Games on the threshold, the event organised by Comnet Conferences, a division of Exhibitions India Group, was appropriately timed and themed “A preventive not reactive approach to terrorism”. The sessions approached the concerns, by focusing attention on the importance of ‘Preparedness and Response’ mechanisms to avert man-made disasters. This was undertaken under the guidance of the Delhi Disaster Management Authority with the objective to educate the masses.

Pointing towards the growing and changing threats and risks to organisations, Sanjeev Sehgal, Managing Director, Sparsh Securitech, said, “The key to security is to prevent influences which are undesirable, unauthorised or detrimental to the goals of the particular organisation”. Emphasis was further given to integrated command and control systems including - device and systems integration, situational awareness and incident management, compliance policy management and reporting, and last but not least, corporate governance. Engaging discussions highlighted preparedness to respond to hostage crises and manage rescue operations at civilian level, safeguarding soft targets such as schools, management of civilian traffic, role of first responders, quick evacuation in times of uncertainty, tactical considerations and intelligent, as well as, sensitive handling towards homegrown terrorism. Eminent speakers including Shri Ajit Doval, IPS (Retd.), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Brig. A. K. Gulati, Vice President, Security & Safety, PVR Cinemas, R. S. Gupta, IPS (Retd.), Former Commissioner of Police, Delhi, Maj. General R. K. Kaushal (Retd.), Sr. Specialist - Policy and Plans,

(NDMA), Vice Admiral Pradeep Kaushiva, UYSM, VSM (Retd.), Brig. Dr. B. K. Khanna, SV, VSM (Retd.), Sr. Specialist Training and Capacity Development NDMA, Lt. Gen. R. K. Sawhney, Former Director General, military Intelligence, Shri Hardip Singh Kingra, IFS, Special Officer (Jt. Secretary) (Commonwealth Games) Sports Authority of India, Ministry of Youth Affairs & Sports, Government of India, Shri Kuldip Singh Ganger, Additional Secretary, Delhi Disaster Management Authority, Government of National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi (policy-maker perspective), Raj Kumar, Director - Operations, Delhi Metro Rail Corporation Ltd., Kunwar Vikram Singh, Chairman, Central Association of Private Security Industry (CAPSI) & Association of Private Detectives and Investigators (APDI) , Shri R. C. Sharma, Director, Department of Delhi Fire Services, Government of NCT of Delhi, and many more informed speakers took the dais and actively contributed in the thought-provoking sessions. “We have been creating trade exhibitions and conferences for over two decades now and would like to use our capability in creating voice platforms that would bring leading visionaries to explore and educate ways of securing the citizens and their unity” said Prem Behl, Chairman, Exhibitions India Group. The leading magazine Defence And Security Alert (DSA) was the supporting journal for this event.

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