DSA June 2010 by Defence and Security Alert

SAARC COUNTRIES : US$20 REST OF THE WORLD : US$25

INDIA : Rs.120 VOLUME 1

JUNE 2010

ISSN

ISSUE 9

0976-206X

9 770976 206003

NORTH-EAST SPECIAL

GENESIS OF INSURGENCY ASSAM: STRATEGIC INFILTRATION MANIPUR: KASHMIR OF EAST? ARUNACHAL: A REALITY CHECK NAGALAND QUAGMIRE

editor-in-chief

The power of a King lies in his mighty arms… Security of the citizens at peace time is very important because State is the only saviour of the men and women who get affected only because of the negligence of the State.

—Chanakya

DSA is as much yours, as it is ours! I

ndia’s tryst with insurgency began in the north-east of the country, as many decades ago as the nation became independent. And it has continued to this day, in some form or the other. 7hinN of the north-east, and the Àrst thought is aOways that of troubOe, some sNirmish, some agitation, or some YioOent act. 7he Indian pubOic’s perception of the north-east is ruOed by an image of YioOent behaYiour, against each other, or the 8nion of India. 7his is indeed a most unfortunate impression to carry on a daiOy basis. And an unfair burden imposed on the iOO-fated peopOes of that region. :ith the beginnings of the 1aga rebeOOion in the earOy s, tiOO today, the region that we commonOy cOub together as the north-east, the seYen sisters, has been in the grip of some insurgency or the other. %ut for the arriYaO of peace in 0i]oram and 0eghaOaya’s off the waOO poOiticaO arrangements, eYery state in the region continues to be absorbed by some insurgent group. As rightOy pointed out by authors, repeatedOy, insurgency in the north-east is YirtuaOOy a cottage industry. It has become a daiOy rituaO, for reasons that range from the ataYistic, to the reYoOutionary. +oweYer out of date both passions may be. AOO te[tbooNs on insurgencies, Oow intensity wars, or subYersion, highOight some trans nationaO commonaOities. A strong desire to preserYe cuOturaO continuity in a worOd that is homogenising rapidOy. A feeOing of poOiticaO aOienation that enabOes the rousers to rabbOe the estranged. 2r it may be something as archaic as raOOying a cOan, a community, eYen a tribe, in the face of perceiYed aggression from the other. 7hat these OabeOs are being used rather OiberaOOy here is deOiberate. )or it is within these idioms that the conYentionaO anaOysis of the north-east occurs. It is in foOOowing the conYentionaO, howeYer, the *oYernment of India has erred, repeatedOy. 7he region is seen through the prism set at an angOe directed by the cuOture seeping out of 5ed )ort, 'eOhi. AOO causes of insurgency in the north-east are anaOysed by an outOooN that is directed by imagery and interests that couOd easiOy be OabeOOed as coOoniaO. 'eOhi treats the region with an imperious attitude, doOing out grants at wiOO, cOobbering war Oords when they raise their heads ¶too’ high and induOging those that pOay the game according to the master. 7he roots of this crisis Oie in a bureaucratic attitude that is based on being an imperiaO serYice, rather than serYing the OocaO needs and reTuirements. &oupOed with that is an Indian poOiticaO cOass OargeOy ignorant of the nuances and subtOeties of the region’s socioOogy. 7his ignorance and the resuOtant pre-conceiYed notions, about the peopOes of the north-east, has aOOowed the growth of insurgencies sustained on the Oargesse of doOe. 7he whoOe enterprise now e[ists on funds that come from 'eOhi aOmost as an aOOowance. India is funding its own insurgencies and nothing couOd highOight nationaO ignorance more than this simpOe fact.

manvendra singh

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

publisherâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s view

My honour is my life; both grow in one ; Take honour from me, and my life is done. -Shakespeare Volume 1 Issue 9

FKDLUPDQ shyam sunder SXEOLVKHU FHR pawan agrawal HGLWRU LQ FKLHI manvendra singh GLUHFWRU shishir bhushan FRUSRUDWH FRQVXOWDQW k j singh DUW FRQVXOWDQW divya gupta central saint martins college of art & design, university of arts, london FRUSRUDWH FRPPXQLFDWLRQV monika kanchan UHSUHVHQWDWLYH - . salil sharma FRUUHVSRQGHQW rohit srivastava FRUUHVSRQGHQW HXURSH

dominika cosic FUHDWLYH vipin choudhary SURGXFWLRQ dilshad & dabeer DGPLQ DQG FRRUGLQDWLRQ shalini sachdeva SKRWRJUDSKHUV subhash, deepak FLUFXODWLRQ GLVWULEXWLRQ prem gupta ranjeet, sandeep, vikram V\VWHPV vikas e-mail: ILUVW QDPH #GVDOHUW RUJ LQIR info@dsalert.org DUWLFOHV articles@dsalert.org VXEVFUL SWLRQ subscription@dsalert.org RQOLQH HGLWLRQ online@dsalert.org DGYHUWLVHPHQW advt@dsalert.org HGLWRULDO EXVLQHVV RIILFH DVDI DOL URDG QHZ GHOKL LQGLD W I H LQIR#GVDOHUW RUJ ZZZ GVDOHUW RUJ

disclaimer aOO rights reserYed. reproduction and transOation in any Oanguage in whoOe or in part by any means without permission from 'efence And 6ecurity AOert is prohibited. opinions e[pressed are those of the indiYiduaO writers and do not necessariOy reĂ ect those of the pubOisher and or editors. aOO disputes are subMect to Murisdiction of deOhi courts. defence and security alert is printed, published and owned by pawan agrawal and printed at graphic world, 1686, kucha dakhini rai, darya ganj, new delhi-110002 and published at 4/19 asaf ali road, new delhi (india). editor: manvendra singh

onour is an essentiaO feeOing for eYery indiYiduaO or peopOe or region or nation for a normaO and heaOthy disposition and growth. Anyone who is depriYed of this feeOing sOowOy sinNs into the morass of disaffection, disiOOusionment, despair and destruction.

June 2010

7he more the casuaO approach of the centraO goYernment the more the escaOation in insurgency, separatism and YioOence in the region. 7his has proYed to be the maMor reason for the deOay in the integration of the northeast region with the Indian mainstream. The honour of our north-eastern brothers and sisters has aOways been a matter of concern. In spite of huge funding and a dedicated ministry to OooN after the deYeOopment of the north-eastern region, we are unabOe to controO the situation tiOO date. 1ow it is spreading itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s tentacOes to other parts of the country and disturbing the peace and harmony which is an essentiaO prereTuisite for deYeOopment. 6uch is the situation in the homeOand of the 6eYen 6isters that the peopOe of the north-east haYe OiYed their OiYes oYer the past si[ decades without the feeOing of pride for India or being Indian. In more than years since the attainment of independence no goYernment has taNen a serious Yiew or e[hibited compOete commitment to deYeOopment of this region. 1o matter what may be the compuOsions - poOiticaO or sociaO - but the fact is that these states stiOO haYe inadeTuate heaOth and education systems and no industriaOisation has been done so far as compared to other parts of the country. :e aOO haYe seen the way the situation in -ammu and .ashmir has been aOOowed to simmer and deteriorate to new OeYeOs of aOienation becoming too costOy to manage in terms of human OiYes to the detriment of peace and prosperity in the region. The same is being seen in aOO the 0aoist-affected states where peopOe are Oured into na[aOism by the promise of an aOternatiYe system that has not been demonstrated to be more effectiYe in the areas under 0aoist controO. :hether it is the north-east, -ammu and .ashmir or the na[aO-affected areas, the root causes of aOO such insurgency and terrorism and na[aO actiYites are now in fuOO Yiew of the nation for aOO of us to assess, anaOyse and seeN appropriate soOutions. The current situation is the resuOt of endemicaOOy poor faciOities for heaOth, education and Mobs for the OocaO inhabitants in these regions. The students haYe to migrate to educate themseOYes and parents are compeOOed to OooN at far hori]ons for prosperity of their chiOdren and the Tuestion stares us in the face :hy cannot we proYide ampOe opportunities for education and Mobs within the states" That wouOd be one way to ensure that the youth of the region are not Oured by various insurgent groups that have mushroomed over the years. 6peciaO attention needs to be paid to the many ethnicities that enrich the north-eastern corner of India. &ompeting ethnic groups have found in the funds made avaiOabOe by the centre a Oucrative method of transforming insurgency into an industry based on e[tortion. A wise Indian statesman had once said that India is not a poor country, it is a nation of poor peopOe. :hat are we waiting for" &an we aOOow inimicaO neighbours to taNe advantage of the situation as 3aNistan and &hina have done over the decades" 1ew 'eOhi must taNe steps to instiO in the OocaO peopOe of each of the seven states a sense of benign governance instead of pouring in enormous funds that appear to be ending up in the pockets of insurgent groups. Team DSA has speciaO feeOings for the north-eastern brothers and sisters and this speciaO issue on north-east is dedicated to the youth of the region. This is the second speciaO issue covering various aspects of defence and security of Indian states. 2ur speciaO issue on -ammu and .ashmir in 0ay was the Ă&#x20AC;rst such issue which got an overwheOming response. We are sure that the efforts of Team DSA for this issue wiOO aOso receive an encouraging response from our vaOuabOe readers. 2ur -uOy issue wiOO aOso be a speciaO on security covering aOO dimensions of security from the pubOic to the pedestrian and the private. 3Oease reserve your copies. DSA is now avaiOabOe in more and more seOected outOets pan India. 2ur readers may procure their copies from the nearest outOets as mentioned on page numbers - of this issue or write to us directOy. -AI +I1'

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

pawan agrawaO

contents

Volume 1 Issue 9

JUNE

contents

ISSUE

NORTH-EAST

2010

June 2010

A R T I C L E S

genesis of insurgency Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Dr. D. B. Shekatkar

Assam: strategic infiltration

10 18

E. N. Rammohan, IPS

banditry: the ideology?

H. N. Das, IAS

Manipur: Kashmir of east?

Maloy Krishna Dhar

Arunachal: a reality check Kiren Rijiju

outlaw the jinx!

36 42

Patricia Mukhim

ULFA: joining the mainstream? Udayon Misra

ethnic schism: intrinsic trepidity

46 50

Pradip Phanjoubam

Nagaland quagmire

Subir Bhaumik

NPT: a paper tiger?

Cmde. (Retd.) Ranjit B. Rai

nuclear quadrangle Brig. (Retd.) Chitranjan Sawant

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Exclusive Interview: terrorism analysis Jaideep Saikia

NCC: scaling new heights

59 78

cartoon

69 75

for online edition of Defence And Security Alert (DSA) log on to: www.dsalert.org 6

Lt. Gen. K. S. Yadava

O T H E R S

Brig. (Retd.) Dr. Anil Sharma

investigations of convenience?

Exclusive Interview: D G - Assam Rifles

Harsh V. Pant

myopic policies

F E A T U R E S

Follow DSA on facebook: DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT Follow DSA on twitters: DSALERT June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

dsa inbox FEEDBACK

announcement

info@dsalert.org

A N N O U N C E S JULY 2010 ISSUE AS

SECURITY SPECIAL Covering security in all its dimensions from the public to the pedestrian and the private.

online@dsalert.org

subscription@dsalert.org

Book your copy now! urity alert

defence and sec asaf aOi road

new deOhi- ,

india

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Also available at all leading bookstores. Detailed list on page numbers 82-83 of this issue.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east

GROUND REALITIES

GENESIS

OF INSURGENCY

“

Success in counter-insurgency operations should never be quantiﬁed by the number of insurgents killed but by the number of people brought back to normal life and national mainstream.

Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Dr. D. B. Shekatkar PVSM, AVSM, VSM

”

nsurgency movements are mostOy designed to repOace the e[isting system or regime with the new and different one. The goaO and activities of the action and activities of an insurgent may be directed against a foreign (or perceived to be foreign) and or domestic regime. Insurgency is rebeOOion. If the action and activities of an insurgent movement are directed against a domestic government or regime, such a movement can be considered as an internaO probOem. The insurgent organisation unit may be smaOO or Oarge in si]e, but in earOy stage of insurgency process they adopt and empOoy irreguOar as weOO as conventionaO methods of operations by resorting to gueriOOa or unconventionaO tactics. As a matter of academic or anaOyticaO interest, whether an insurgency probOem is perceived as a Oaw and order probOem (as it has aOways happened in Indian conte[t since our independence and is OikeOy to continue in future aOso for various reasons) or a phenomenon of revoOutionary movement, based on the poOiticaO and bureaucratic viewpoint of the particuOar assessor. Insurgency in north-east emerged a threat to nationaO security and integrity in Oarger perspective, since the obMect of insurgency manifested into open rebeOOion against a constitutionaOOy estabOished government. Threat to nationaO security is aOways an overriding priority of aOO nation-6tates. India can be no e[ception. The aspect of nationaO security and insurgency do not reOate to onOy miOitary (as is normaOOy perceived in India), but aOso poOiticaO, sociaO, economic, reOigious, ideoOogicaO, psychoOogicaO and humanitarian issues. Today aOO nations, especiaOOy in Africa and 6outh Asia have to be concerned with macro and micro anaOysis of internaO security and territoriaO integrity (which incOudes issues Oike insurgency, terrorism, reOigious fundamentaOism, conÁicts based on ideoOogy and so on) which has many facets the Oand and peopOe, historicaO background, geographicaO reaOties, cuOture, traditions, way of Oife, reOigious motivations, the government and its ideoOogy, e[ternaO and internaO forces, poOiticaO, psychoOogicaO and miOitary dimensions.

Background In the conte[t of north-east, due to geographicaO, physicaO reasons, being away from 'eOhi and perceived as weOO as treated as remote and backward corner of India there has aOways been a gap between the image and reaOity which Oed to uprising, rebeOOion, insurgency and conÁict. 2ut of my four decades of Army career I

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east

GROUND REALITIES

spent a considerabOe period in northeast (whiOe I was a &aptain in to /t. *eneraO in the year ) in combatting insurgency in 1agaOand, 0i]oram, 0anipur, Tripura, (astern ArunachaO Pradesh and Assam. I can state that there is a totaO Oack of understanding of ground reaOities, image of north-east as proMected by vested interests and perception of those who are part of the governing and security mechanism. There is Must no co-reOation, co-ordination whatsoever between â&#x20AC;&#x153;perception managementâ&#x20AC;? and â&#x20AC;&#x153;conseTuence managementâ&#x20AC;?, whiOe evoOving a counter-insurgency phiOosophy, doctrine, strategy and impOementation. It is to be appreciated that northeast is the meeting ground of Aryan, 'ravidian, 0ongoOian and (ast Asian ethnic stream comprising of different cuOtures and ethnic Oife styOes. (very state has its own pecuOiarities in every aspect of human e[istence and progress. There is nothing in common between peopOe of 0i]oram and 1agaOand or 0i]oram and 0anipur or 0eghaOaya e[cept 0ongoOian Oooks. There are different diaOects, customs, traditions, and so on. It is due to Oack of knowOedge, vision, perspective and concern, that despite aOO the differences in aOO aspects of Oife, aOO states have been branded as north-east and every one in north-east e[cept some parts of Assam, is OabeOOed as â&#x20AC;&#x153;TribaO from north-eastâ&#x20AC;? A new identity has been thrust upon the peopOe of north-east and now it has become an important factor and strong motivation to unite as north-east and e[tract ma[imum money, concessions and non-accountabiOity, from the *overnment of India. (thnic coaOition, traditions, OifestyOe based on respect to nature and eOders, hard work, honesty of purpose have mattered more in the entire north-east region. The situation of unrest is a resuOt of conĂ icts between past vaOues and forces of so-caOOed modernisation (which is more of materiaOism - greed and dominating tendencies). We as a nation faiOed to harmonise the process, aOO these factors coupOed with indifferent attitude of governing mechanism and agencies both in the state and centraO government during Oast si[ decades represents the principaO compuOsions that triggered the 1aga, 0i]o, 0eiteis, Tripuri and Assamese afĂ&#x20AC;rmation of separateness from the peopOe and communities that dominate India. The inspiration

and causes of unrest in 0eghaOaya and (astern ArunachaO Pradesh are of different nature (the desire and greed to make money). 2f the seven states whiOe ArunachaO Pradesh, 1agaOand, 0i]oram and 0eghaOaya originaOOy formed part of Assam or were under the controO of governor in British India, the states of 0anipur and Tripura were princeOy states. The entire region was part of BengaO Presidency tiOO independence. The freedom struggOe in India aOso did not reach out to many of the areas of this region. The symptoms of the separatist movement which Oater on escaOated into insurgency were prevaiOing in 1agaOand right from the time India gained independence from British ruOe. +owever these started surfacing from onwards and deveOoped into dangerous insurgent movement during earOy si[ties. 1aga insurgency is termed as mother of aOO insurgencies in northeast.

+istoricaO perspective 'uring WorOd War II and especiaOOy the Burma campaign, the peopOe of 1agaOand came in contact and under the inĂ uence of British and to some e[tent -apanese forces. The &hurch made an impact and inĂ uence on peopOe which resuOted in maMority of popuOation adopting &hristian reOigion. 5eOigion has made both positive and negative impact on insurgency and aOso counter-insurgency campaign. ([perts in MungOe survivaO, 1agas were trained by British in Oaying ambush, sniping and raids on the -apanese army which had invaded 1agaOand. After the end of WWII 1agas had inherited a Oarge Tuantity of arms, ammunition Oeft by the British Army and the retreating -apanese forces. In august 1agas decOared independence, however they did not form any paraOOeO government. It was in that 0r. A. =. Phi]o, a hardOiner started the insurgency process. In he brought the warring factions of Nagas, their armed groups together and started the armed revoOt insurgency. +e announced the formation of Naga )ederaO *overnment (N)*). 9ioOence now started on a pOanned scaOe. Indian Army was rushed in to combat the insurgency. I entered NagaOand as a young &aptain in to combat insurgency. 'ue to sustained and reOentOess counter

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

insurgency operations by the Army, Phi]o was forced to move out of NagaOand. InitiaOOy he sought sheOter in (ast Pakistan (now BangOadesh) and Oater got poOiticaO sheOter in 8nited Kingdom from where he directed the insurgency in NagaOand. AdMoining areas of 0anipur, Assam and (astern ArunachaO Pradesh came under the inĂ uence of Naga insurgency. T 0uivah, now the head of the N6&N(I0) beOongs to 0anipur. N)* Oater got bifurcated into N6&N(I0) and N6&N(K) and even now they operate independentOy. In fact there is a rivaOry between these two. In earOy insurgency erupted in 0i]oram. +aving seen the gains of insurgency to Nagas in NagaOand (from a district of Assam NagaOand became a fuOO state in ) the 0i]os got encouraged to start insurgency. (arOier 0i]oram was known as /ushai district of Assam. +ere again due to administrative negOect, indifferent attitude towards peopOe of 0i]oram and geographicaO isoOation and famine in - , peopOe became restive and frustrated. 0r. /aOdenga (who was a non-commissioned ofĂ&#x20AC;cer in the Army) formed 0i]o NationaO )ront (0N)) and decOared independence for 0i]o +iOOs (now 0i]oram). To controO the situation the Army was inducted into 0i]oram. I served in 0i]oram during earOy stage of insurgency, then from to and again - when the 0i]o Peace Accord was signed. I have cOoseOy seen the transformation of /ushai +iOOs into a 8nion Territory and Oater the fuOO state of 0i]oram. As a resuOt of sustained Army operations 0r. /aOdenga and his foOOowers were forced to Ă ee. They sought sanctuary in (ast Pakistan (now BangOadesh). 0r. /aOdenga directed insurgency in 0i]oram whiOe staying in (ast Pakistan. +e returned to 0i]oram after signing of Peace Accord in and Oater became &hief 0inister of 0i]oram As of now 0i]oram is a peacefuO and progressive state in the north-east. Insurgency in Tripura was the resuOt of Oarge scaOe inĂ u[ of BangOadeshi migrants and others, fear of deprivation among tribaO popuOation. 5esuOtant demographicaO changes resuOted in adverse impact on tribaO popuOation and the originaO inhabitants of Tripura. It took a poOiticaO turn due to the vested interest of &ommunist party. In this case aOso geographicaO isoOation, none[istence of efĂ&#x20AC;cient and effective

governing mechanism, corruption and narrow poOiticaO interests, as weOO as rivaOry, added fueO to the Ă&#x20AC;re. Indian Army was inducted into Tripura and situation was brought under manageabOe controO, where the poOiticaO process couOd continue. Insurgency in Assam resuOted on the prete[t of throwing back iOOegaO migrants from BangOadesh. There has aOways been resistance to the inĂ u[ of non-Assamese peopOe from different parts of India into Assam, since â&#x20AC;&#x153;outsidersâ&#x20AC;? (as they are addressed

rebeOOion in Assam. They gave a caOO for independent Assam. In due course of time 8/)A deveOoped safe sanctuaries in BangOadesh and Bhutan. +aving seen the emergence of 8/)A the B2'2 tribaOs who dominate si]eabOe area of Assam aOong northern bank of Brahmaputra river got encouraged and started insurgency under the banner of NationaO 'emocratic )ront of BodoOand (N')B) with the demand of independent B2'2/AN'. /ater they diOuted the demand to B2'2 state within India. B2'2s organised

materiaO suppOiers, businessmen and even government empOoyees. In 0eghaOaya the motivation to organise an armed gang is again to make money. There are Oarge deposits of Oime stone, coaO, uranium and other mineraOs in 0eghaOaya. These can be commerciaOOy used onOy with Oarge investments from the pubOic and corporate sector, as weOO as muOtinationaO companies. The youth under the patronage of a few OocaO poOitians have caught on the idea of making money through e[tortions and acTuiring contracts for those who

Indian Army is probably the only army in the world (I shall stand corrected if I am proved wrong!) which strictly follows self-imposed restriction of use of minimum force while dealing with insurgency and terrorism. Use of heavy armaments like tanks, armoured cars, artillery guns, mortars, use of armed helicopters or aircraft (for airstrike, bombing etc.) is strictly prohibited and ruthlessly avoided by OocaO peopOe) virtuaOOy controO the business and economy of Assam. Tea and other industries are mostOy owned by non-Assamese. The money earned from Assam was not reinvested in Assam, but was transferred to other parts of India for Oarger Tuick gains. (ven the workers in tea gardens and in other industries are not from Assam. Asom *an Parishad (A*P), the poOiticaO front and AOO Assam 6tudents 8nion gave a caOO for sending back the iOOegaO migrants. This was a popuOar cause and got support from OocaO popuOation. The 8nited /iberation )ront of Assam (8/)A) an armed wing came into e[istence and insurgency erupted in Assam. It started from a pOace known as â&#x20AC;&#x153;5ang *harâ&#x20AC;? at 6ibsagar district +4 of Assam. It was Must a co-incidence that I was present at that pOace where 8/)A cadre took oath to start armed

an armed wing. /ater another armed organisation known as BodoOand /iberation Tigers emerged. 'ue to reOentOess Army operations the N')B armed cadre created safe sanctuaries in BangOadesh and Bhutan. They Moined 8/)A and sought the support for their Oiberation movement. There are some other armed gangs operating in North &achar +iOOs of Assam and in 0eghaOaya. Though they cOaim to Ă&#x20AC;ght for independence, they are basicaOOy into making money through e[tortion, kidnapping and iOOegaO ta[ coOOection. /arge sum of money is being pumped into Assam by the *overnment of India for deveOopment of raiOways, roads, oiO pipeOines, oiO reĂ&#x20AC;neries, eOectricity and other infrastructure. Armed gangs e[tract money from construction companies, contractors,

pay money. To gain respectabiOity these armed gangs disguise themseOves as â&#x20AC;&#x153;/iberation Armyâ&#x20AC;?, commando force and so on. We see the simiOar pattern in the Na[aOite effected states in different parts of India. Though unfortunate, but it is a hard fact and ground reaOity that aOO the so caOOed insurgent organisations and armed gangs enMoy poOiticaO and bureaucratic patronage from OocaO, tehsiO, district to the state OeveO. As of now insurgency in north-east has transformed into a weOO organised and efĂ&#x20AC;cienct cottage industry, induOging in iOOegaO e[pOoitation of forest produce, mineraOs, arms and drug smuggOing and acTuiring contracts. (ven raw uranium is being smuggOed from 0eghaOaya to BangOadesh. 'uring my tenure as head of the operationaO group of uniĂ&#x20AC;ed

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east

GROUND REALITIES

command combatting 8/)A and B2'2 insurgents, two consignments of raw uranium were caught. It was in . (nough water has since gone into various rivers to BangOadesh. The fact remains that uranium is being smuggOed, someone is buying it. IOOegaOOy smuggOed uranium cannot be used for OegaO means. The Ă ow may not be conĂ&#x20AC;ned onOy up to BangOadesh It is not difĂ&#x20AC;cuOt to make a guess. I do hope that we do not wake up to a rude shock and an aOarming ground reaOity when things go out of controO Apart from many other causes the main reason for eruption of insurgency in north-east couOd be summarised as (a) )ear of Ooss of cuOturaO identity among peopOe being part of Assam India. This was fuOOy e[pOoited in NagaOand, 0i]oram and hiOOy areas of 0anipur. (b) InadeTuate understanding of fear of Nagas, 0i]os and 0anipuri peopOe. /ack of knowOedge among the poOiticaO Oeaders, bureaucrats, poOicy formuOators both in Assam as weOO as in New 'eOhi. This continues even today. (c) /ack of understanding of psyche, characteristics, aspirations and urgent needs of peopOe of north-east. (d) 5ampant corruption at aOO OeveOs, Oack of understanding, indifferent attitude of poOiticians and governing mechanism speciaOOy the Army, paramiOitary forces, state poOice and aOso the young generation of north-

east has paid very heavy price for accumuOated negOigence, inefĂ&#x20AC;ciency and incapabiOity. (e) Patronage and use of insurgent organisations and gangs to gain poOiticaO power and Ă&#x20AC;nanciaO gains. (f) TotaO Oack of e[pertise and absence of counter propaganda mechanism to counter the adverse impact of propaganda conducted by insurgent Oeadership in NagaOand, 0i]oram, 0anipur and Assam. It is TuestionabOe if we have evoOved any vision, strategy, poOicy, action pOan even today at nationaO OeveO. 'o we have reTuired mechanism and e[pertise to conduct psychoOogicaO operations" 2f course our army to some e[tent does it at the OocaO OeveO to discourage youth and young students from Moining and heOping anti-nationaO eOements. /ack of understanding and non-e[istence of mechanisms to conduct meaningfuO psychoOogicaO operations has forced us to pay heavy price in north-east, - K and now in the Na[aOite beOt.

0ethodoOogy Insurgent organisations in NagaOand, 0anipur and Assam were inĂ uenced and motivated by &hinese phiOosophy of gueriOOa war. Insurgents in 0anipur were totaOOy inĂ uenced by Pakistani phiOosophy. In NagaOand, 0anipur and Assam, the insurgents organised themseOves into a PoOiticaO wing and a 0iOitary wing. PoOiticaO Wing (incOuding

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

so caOOed President, 0inisters and so on) was mainOy responsibOe to form overaOO strategy, cadre recruitment, Ă&#x20AC;nance, pubOicity, internationaO heOp etc. 0iOitary Wing was assigned the task of training of armed cadre, conducting insurgency operations, coOOection of money etc. This was in totaO conformity with &hinese phiOosophy of revoOution and aOso governance. It continues even today. 6ince the 0i]o insurgents were totaOOy inĂ uenced and dominated by Pakistani phiOosophy the armed wing of 0N) enMoyed totaO supremacy over the so caOOed poOiticaO Oeadership.

NagaOand 0i]o insurgents in every possibOe way. 8/)A and B2'2s have ne[us with NS&N(I0), ISI of Pakistan and even Na[aOites. 8/)A had sought heOp even from /TT(. NS&N(I0) even today seeks heOp both from &hina and ISI of Pakistan. +owever over the years insurgent Oeadership have deveOoped personaO interests based on tribaO afĂ&#x20AC;nity. Insurgent tactics incOude

&adre

Insurgent cadre have been recruited from OocaO youth. Naga insurgents were organised in battaOion and brigade, on Oines of the Indian Army. 2f course the strength was much Oess. These were basicaOOy organised as per OocaO tribaO afĂ&#x20AC;Oiation and Oanguages. (ntire NagaOand was divided into three miOitary commands. )or communication they adopted a common Oanguage known as Nagamese (a mi[ of Naga and Assamese Oanguages). 0i]o insurgents were organised into battaOion and brigades but on Pakistan armyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s design. 8/)A and B2'2s foOOowed &hinese modeO due to the inĂ uence of N6&N(I0). There have been few incidents during earOy stage of insurgency when radio operators, paramedicaO staff were from other parts of India. Now aOO insurgent organisations recruit unempOoyed youth (both boys and girOs) who Moin the insurgent groups to make money and not due to ideoOogy afĂ&#x20AC;Oiation. Today one can Ă&#x20AC;nd IT e[perts, educated youth even engineers and doctors who support the insurgents, again mostOy for money. They may not be part of the armed cadre but they provide support for continuation of insurgency. (ven some of the so caOOed human right activists and some N*2s work for insurgents.

Strategy and tactics InitiaOOy the strategy was to consoOidate their strength, hoOd and inĂ uence, in different parts of north-east. /ater they deveOoped ne[us with insurgents operating in 0yanmar (basicaOOy to gain sanctuary and passage through 0yanmar to go to &hina to get training, arms, eTuipment and money). Pakistan Army in (ast Pakistan heOped both

(a) Sniping on security forces from hidden positions. (b) Throwing grenades and even improvised e[pOosive devices (I('S) from vehicOes.

(d) Attacking smaOO posts of security forces, state armed poOice, poOice stations, poOice +4s and even MaiOs. (e) Terrorising OocaO popuOation speciaOOy working cOass, Oabourers, tea garden workers, business community, contractors, suppOiers and even government servants (speciaOOy outsiders). (f) Sabotage and kidnapping. (g) Ta[ coOOection and e[tortion. (it is an open secret that government empOoyees in 0anipur and some parts of NagaOand pay upto per cent of monthOy saOary to insurgents to buy peace and protection. There are no e[ceptions whatsoever. (ven high ranking ofĂ&#x20AC;ciaOs and poOiticians pay â&#x20AC;&#x153;security and protection ta[â&#x20AC;? every month. 2f course no one wiOO admit it but it is a harsh truth.

Training and weaponry InitiaOOy insurgents got the training in &hina and (ast Pakistan. They acTuired weapons from these countries. Nagas had Oarge stock of weapons, ammunition of WWII vintage Oeft by Brithish Army and aOso -apanese forces. 2ver the years they have acTuired modern weapons, eTuipment and communication faciOities. At times the TuaOity of weapons with insurgents is better than the state poOice and even paramiOitary forces. Insurgents (Oike Na[aOites) Ă&#x20AC;nd it convenient to Ooot weapons from state poOice and state armed poOice. I had to initiate speciaO mechanism in Assam at OocaO OeveO to ensure that insurgents do not succeed in making away with poOice weapons. The capture of Oarge number of weapons in BangOadesh

which were on their way to north-east and â&#x20AC;&#x153;2peration /eechâ&#x20AC;? in Andaman Nicobar are gOaring e[ampOes of ne[us between insurgents and internationaO arms suppOiers. /ooting of weapons by Na[aOites from poOice armoury at district +4 of Koraput in 2rissa and recentOy from &5P) personneO in district of 'antewada in &hattisgarh shouOd not be taken OightOy. I am convinced Na[aOites have been trained by NS&N (I0) and 8/)A in Oooting of weapons. It is a harsh truth that insurgents in north-east have graduaOOy transformed themseOves from â&#x20AC;&#x153;tribaO insurgentsâ&#x20AC;? to â&#x20AC;&#x153;techno insurgentsâ&#x20AC;? Oike â&#x20AC;&#x153;techno terroristsâ&#x20AC;?. Same wiOO hoOd good for Na[aOites aOso.

&ounter insurgency Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s response to the insurgency in NagaOand and 0i]oram during initiaO phases and Oater in 0anipur and Assam can be summarised in three phases: (a) Induction of army and security force to counter armed rebeOOion insurgency. Bringing situation to â&#x20AC;&#x153;0anageabOe /imitsâ&#x20AC;?. The term â&#x20AC;&#x153;0anageabOe /imitsâ&#x20AC;? is very popuOar among bureaucrats and some seOf-styOed e[perts <ou have to â&#x20AC;&#x153;0anageâ&#x20AC;? vioOence and keep it at acceptabOe OeveOs Ă&#x20AC;ne but at what cost in terms of human Oife and Ă&#x20AC;nanciaO e[penditure (b) Initiation of poOiticaO process and activities to meet reasonabOe aspiration and demands of peopOe, incOuding giving status and powers of state to the peopOe of NagaOand, 0i]oram and ArunachaO Pradesh Oike other states of India. (c) &onsoOidation of success through a combination of miOitary, poOiticaO, economic, academic and other initiatives. This aOso incOudes diaOogue negotiations with insurgent groups, giving them opportunity to come out of MungOes and e[perience advantage of peace and stabiOity (staying in pre-designated camps aOong with their arms) witness OifestyOe of young peopOe who keep themseOves away from vioOence and gun cuOture. (d) 'ue to Oack of e[perience in combatting insurgency, use of miOitary force was the answer and option avaiOabOe to the centraO government during initiaO phases, however with passage of time and e[perience, phiOosophy, doctrine, poOicy,

mechanism and tactics have been evoOved to suit Indian environment. â&#x20AC;&#x153;8se of minimum forceâ&#x20AC;? whiOe combatting insurgency and terrorism is one such e[ampOe. Indian Army is probabOy the onOy army in the worOd (I shaOO stand corrected if I am proved wrong ) which strictOy foOOows seOfimposed restriction of use of minimum force whiOe deaOing with insurgency and terrorism. 8se of heavy armaments Oike tanks, armoured cars, artiOOery guns, mortars, use of armed heOicopters or aircraft (for airstrike, bombing etc.) is strictOy prohibited and ruthOessOy avoided. Though Indian Army speciaOOy the infantry has paid and continue to pay heavy cost in terms of Ooss of own soOdiers and young ofĂ&#x20AC;cers but this is accepted as ha]ard to ensure protection and safety to innocent peopOe staying in the areas of operation and OocaO popuOation. This poOicy has paid us dividend in the Oong run by â&#x20AC;&#x153;winning hearts and minds of OocaO popuOationâ&#x20AC;? which is our â&#x20AC;&#x153;nationaO aimâ&#x20AC;?. I wonder if there is any such other e[ampOe today anywhere in the word. This is one of the reasons as to why Indian Army contingents are popuOar and weOcome during 8N Peace Keeping operations, which are mostOy in third worOd countries. 8se of minimum force does pose severe restrictions on our troops and Munior Oeadership on achieving Tuick tangibOe resuOts, but it heOps in the Oong run. WhiOe combating insurgency and terrorism onOy kiOOing and destruction is not the answer. If one innocent person is kiOOed today rest assured ten more insurgents terrorists na[aOites wiOO be born tomorrow (This is what is happening in IraT, Afghanistan, Pakistan and some other parts of the worOd). There are respectabOe Oimits to kiOOing of insurgents and terrorists. Insurgency terrorism cannot be soOved successfuOOy through miOitary means aOone. (0i]oram and PunMab are e[ampOes) Those who are combatting insurgency particuOarOy the army who are organised, eTuipped, trained and geared to Ă&#x20AC;ght conventionaO war must Oearn and adapt their thinking to the probOem of insurgency or be prepared to be defeated. (We have seen this happening in 9ietnam, Afghanistan (defeat of Soviet Army). Anyone who has wrong ambition of winning a subversive war, insurgency, terrorism by miOitary means aOone (as is happening in some parts of the worOd)

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east

GROUND REALITIES

shouOd be prepared to face miOitary defeat. Surrender and rehabiOitation is another e[ampOe. 0r. /aOdenga who started insurgency in 0i]oram, remained in Pakistan for two decades, became &hief 0inister of 0i]oram after signing

this aim the &ounter Insurgency and -ungOe Warfare SchooO (&I-W SchooO) has been estabOished in 0i]oram. /eadership from army, paramiOitary forces, states poOice and foreign armies of various countries are trained here. It is among the Ă&#x20AC;nest training institutions

0i]o insurgents got aOO the heOp from (ast Pakistan. 0r. /aOdenga had estabOished 0N) +4 in (ast Pakistan and Oater in BangOadesh. (ven Naga insurgents got heOp from (ast Pakistan.

and geographicaO identity by . The symptoms are there, the writings are on the waOO, but we are keeping our eyes cOosed to the ground reaOities for some une[pOained reasons.

Insurgent groups from 0anipur estabOished the bases in 0yanmar and

Strategic impOications 2ne of the most striking aspect of the phiOosophy, doctrine and strategy of counter insurgency operation undertaken by Indian Army is that it does not permit insurgents to operate in Oarge groups. To reduce their striking capabiOities they are forced to move in smaOO groups. There are not many incidents in the entire history of insurgency in north-east where insurgents were abOe to surround any army camp post and cause damage. We have witnessed many such incidents in 9ietnam, Afghanistan (during Soviet occupation) Sri /anka, Africa, IraT and now again in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

in India imparting training in counterinsurgency and counter-terrorism. I was fortunate to have been associated with the estabOishment of this schooO and Oater served on instructionaO staff ( - and - ). In addition aOO troops who are inducted in north-east have to undergo orientation training at BattOe schooOs.

)oreign Oinks â&#x20AC;&#x153;Peace Accordâ&#x20AC;?. Naga rebeOs who surrendered in NagaOand were enroOOed in BS), depending on their TuaOiĂ&#x20AC;cation and suitabiOity. I encouraged the concept of surrender in Kashmir 9aOOey and Oater for 8/)A and B2'2 insurgents in Assam. After surrender they were rehabiOitated, trained and eTuipped to Oead meaningfuO, peacefuO Oife. Terrorists and insurgents were made to understand and appreciate the futiOity of their so caOOed â&#x20AC;&#x153;armed struggOeâ&#x20AC;? against the Indian State. 0aMority of those who gave up vioOence are reasonabOy prosperous today /eadership at operationaO OeveO pOays a key roOe. /eadership needs to be trained in combating insurgency. To achieve

It is a harsh truth that aOO neighbouring countries have provided succour, sheOter, materiaO heOp (for whatever reasons) to the insurgents in north-east. &hina who aOways cOaimed Oarge parts of ArunachaO Pradesh, has trained, eTuipped, and sustained Naga, 0eitei and 0i]o insurgents. (ven 8/)A deveOoped Oinks with &hina through NS&N(I0). A &hinese backed camp was estabOished in northern 0yanmar. This camp became the meeting point and training centre for aOO insurgent groups. Naga insurgents have been going to &hina since for training. NS&N(I0) even today enMoys sustenance from &hina as weOO as ISI. They have a functionaO +4 in ThaiOand and 0yanmar and organise drugs and weapon smuggOing.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Oater went to &hina for training. As Oate as the groups have been reported to have freTuented &hina. 8/)A &hairman Arbinda 5aMkhowa and his deOegation had received an assurance of support during their visit to Pakistan. ISI has estabOished a weOO organised and coordinated network in aOO the neighbouring countries. Paresh Baruah, the miOitary wing Oeader of 8/)A has been operating from 'haka and other parts of BangOadesh. 8/)A has invested over crore in BangOadesh 2f Oate it is heartening to see that the *overnment of BangOadesh is acting tough against 8/)A and B2'2 insurgents. 0any insurgent groups had estabOished Oinks with /TT(. Some of them even estabOished Oinks with terrorist organisations based in Pakistan. There are reports of ISI funding and training insurgent groups as weOO as musOim youth. IOOegaO migrants from BangOadesh and some OocaO youth have been grouped into 0usOim 8nited )ront of Assam, 0usOim 9oOunteer )orce and BengaO Tigers. Since Oast years I have been repeatedOy cautioning that India shouOd be prepared to face demand of emergence of yet another poOiticaO

As part of counter-insurgency doctrine and strategy a cOear and strong message has been conveyed to insurgents and terrorists aOso that no one can succeed in secession from India through the power of gun. PeopOe of India wiOO not permit this to happen. It is this reaOisation among the insurgent Oeadership and the capabiOity of Indian Army to hit them hard, if the need arises again, is forcing and encouraging the insurgents to shun the path of vioOence and return to normaO Oife. There is an urgent need to convey this message cOearOy and forcefuOOy to aOO insurgent and terrorist groups.

between peace and prosperity. In brief the strategy to combat insurgency has been based on two basic approaches. )irst the miOitary is empOoyed to restore authority of the government and then an accord is arrived at. SecondOy the accord acknowOedges some concern of OocaO popuOation and brings deveOopment. There is a â&#x20AC;&#x153;Ă ood of deveOopment fundsâ&#x20AC;?. +owever such an approach brought peace for a short speOO onOy. The need is to address the whoOe compOe[ range of issues and probOems. There is an insurgent-poOiticianadministration ne[us beneĂ&#x20AC;ting from â&#x20AC;&#x153;economy and poOitics of insurgencyâ&#x20AC;?. Insurgency is now a cottage industry and continued staOemate is a win-win situation. The insurgent groups have degenerated. Their originaO ideoOogy has diOuted signiĂ&#x20AC;cantOy. They have Oost sympathy with the popuOation. They are now Oooking for a â&#x20AC;&#x153;respectfuO way outâ&#x20AC;?. If the *overnment of India remains Ă&#x20AC;rm yet considerate there can be a way ahead. The Oeadership of aOO insurgent groups is in e[iOe. They have Oost touch with rank and Ă&#x20AC;Oe. We need to make rank and Ă&#x20AC;Oe aware of the seOĂ&#x20AC;sh motives of the so caOOed insurgent Oeaders.

Way ahead

'espite adverse pubOicity and propaganda by insurgent groups, their poOiticaO supporters, the so caOOed N*2s within north-east and abroad, maMority of peopOe cOearOy understand the sincerity of Indian Army, security forces and *overnment of India to end vioOence, protect the interests of the peopOe and move forward towards peace and progress.

As mentioned earOier the insurgency in north-east is a poOiticaO probOem and needs to be soOved poOiticaOOy. Insurgency can never be wiped out by armed forces aOone through miOitary means. Armed forces being in direct contact can onOy bring the vioOence to â&#x20AC;&#x153;acceptabOe OeveOâ&#x20AC;? where normaO civiO administration can function. This has been achieved in north-east. Success in counter-insurgency operations shouOd never be TuantiĂ&#x20AC;ed by the number of insurgents kiOOed but by the number of peopOe brought back to normaO Oife and nationaO mainstream.

2pening up road communications into 0yanmar, encouragement to border trade are making good impact. )rom a remote corner of India north-east shouOd be deveOoped as a gateway to (ast Asia.

The maMor insurgent groups in northeast wiOO attempt towards integration and uniĂ&#x20AC;ed action against *overnment of India to put pressure under the umbreOOa strategy of the NS&N(I0) and 8/)A.

'iscovery of mineraO recourses, hydro power capacity, scope for tourism, OocaO craft has generated new hope. *overnment of India is aOOocating Oarge funds for deveOopment of north-east. The peopOe and speciaOOy the youth have understood the cOose Oinkage

&ounter-insurgency efforts across the region aOso need to be coordinated and integrated. Intensity of miOitary operations must be maintained in a baOanced manner. Insurgents and terrorists respect strength and Ă&#x20AC;rmness.

There is an urgent need to curb iOOegaO migration which is part of grand strategic design. We need to be serious unOess we want another partition or bifurcation of north-east. &hina continues to be Ă&#x20AC;rm in its stand on entire ArunachaO Pradesh. It shouOd not be taken OightOy. &hinese have Ă&#x20AC;rmed up their arrangements in NepaO, 0yanmar, BangOadesh and are e[erting pressure on Bhutan. The rapid deveOopment of infrastructure in Tibet must be considered carefuOOy with aOO seriousness. 9ioOent, unstabOe north-east wiOO suit both &hina and Pakistan. India wiOO be forced to depOoy more and more resources and troops and shift focus from Kashmir and Pakistan border. Shift in focus created KargiO crises. We shouOd not be caught napping again. It is up to the peopOe of north-east and speciaOOy the youth to carry out an introspection to make peace. They have to decide as to how soon they want to bring peace, progress and prosperity. The day youth of north-east decide to bring an end to insurgency, it wiOO come to a grinding haOt. If it couOd happen in 0i]oram and Tripura it can happen in other states aOso. A cOear cut message must reach the peopOe which I have been aOways advocating that: Do not believe in alliance of money and machine gun. Because your children will not get the money which they have been promised, but they will hold the gun which will not only kill others but will kill them also. We must aOso not forget the fact of history: â&#x20AC;&#x153;Insurgents and guerrillas do not win war but their adversaries often loseâ&#x20AC;?. The writer has served extensively in northeast from 1964 to 2000. He mastered the art of counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism. He also combated terrorism in Punjab and Kashmir. He was head of the operational group of 8niĂ&#x20AC;ed command in Assam. He also served as Additional Director General Military Operations and also as Additional Director General Perspective (Strategic) Planning at Army HQ New Delhi. He was Chair Professor, Policy Studies in the Dept. of Defence & Strategic Studies at University of Pune. He is President of the â&#x20AC;&#x153;Forum for Integrated National Security of Indiaâ&#x20AC;?.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east

SMOULDERING

ASSAM: 6WUDWHJLF ,QÀOWUDWLRQ E. N. Rammohan, IPS

Former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi can be accused of making a clean-hearted and genuine investment in peace with India’s neighbours 6he did it with MuMibur 5ehman b\ À[ing the cut-off date for identiÀcation of foreigners as March and she did it with Pakistan’s =ulÀkar $li %hutto through the 6himla $greement of 7he world changed with the assassination of MuMib and the prospect of Muslim hegemony has been made realpolitic by ISI machinations 7he world changed again with the return of MuMib’s daughter Sheikh Hasina to power. History has taught us that life is transitory and preparing for the worst yields more lasting results.

n )riday, )ebruary, , the 0inistry of +ome Affairs pubOished two notiÀcations amending the )oreigners TribunaO 2rder of the )oreigners Act , thereby proving once again as was stated by '. N. Be]baruah, the then editor of the SentineO that for the &ongress party, remaining in power was more important than the security and integrity of the country ( ). Why did the government issue this order" And what are its impOications"

Indira-0uMib accord The roots of this order Oie in the Oiberation of BangOadesh, in which India had the Oead roOe. After the Oiberation, in the historic meeting between 0rs. *andhi, the Prime 0inister of India and Sheikh 0uMibur 5ehman, the head of the new country of BangOadesh, the Oatter toOd the Prime 0inister of India that he wouOd take back aOO the Oakhs of refugees who had Áed from the erstwhiOe (ast Pakistan after 0arch , he wouOd not take back any one who had migrated to India before 0arch the date of creation of the *overnment of BangOadesh in e[iOe in India. This meant the Oakhs of BengaOi +indus and 0usOims who had iOOegaOOy migrated from (ast Pakistan into India from , when India had become a 5epubOic, tiOO 0arch couOd not be detected and deported. 0rs. *andhi agreed, thereby reguOarising at one stroke Oakhs of iOOegaO immigrants from (ast Pakistan.

IOOegaO 0rs. *andhi had no authority to agree to the reTuest of Sheikh 0uMibur 5ehman. The cut-off year for registration as citi]ens of India was À[ed as . This was recorded in section si[ of the &iti]enship Act of

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east

SMOULDERING

India when it was passed in ParOiament in . When was Ă&#x20AC;[ed under section of the &iti]enship Act , 0rs. *andhi had no right to agree to the reTuest of Sheikh 0uMibur 5ehman to accept 0arch as the cut-off date for giving citi]enship to migrants from BangOadesh who had inĂ&#x20AC;Otrated iOOegaOOy into India between and 0arch . The direction issued by the +ome 0inistry, *overnment of India after the meeting between 0rs. *andhi and Sheikh 0uMibur 5ehman was therefore cOearOy iOOegaO. The cut-off year for detection of iOOegaO migrants from (ast Pakistan was as per the provisions of the &iti]enship Act of India. The NationaO 5egister of &iti]ens was prepared on the basis of being the cut-off year. And it was on the basis of this NationaO 5egister of &iti]ens that detection and investigation of cases

itseOf. The *overnment of India had then instituted a Pakistan InĂ&#x20AC;Otration Posts scheme in the border states with (ast Pakistan. This had been functioning in Assam since the earOy si[ties.

0angaOdoi bye-eOection It was at this Muncture that in , the sitting 0P from 0angaOdoi constituency in Assam died. When the issue of a bye-eOection came up, the peopOe of 0angaOdoi and Assam represented to the &hief (Oection &omissioner (&(&) that the eOectoraO roOOs of 0angaOdoi constituency shouOd be revised as there were a number of foreigners in the constituency. After conducting inTuiries, the &(& announced that the by-eOection wouOd be heOd onOy after the eOectoraO roOOs were revised, as there were a number of foreigners in the

eOectorate.

8/)A born

I0DT Act

At this Muncture poOiticians took over. The Prime 0inister 0orarMi 'esai had to step down as some of his coaOition partners decided to defect. &haran Singh became a Oame duck Prime 0inister with the &ongress driving from behind. The 0usOim Oobby promptOy pressurised the &ongress to prevaiO on the &(& to conduct the poOOs in 0angaOdoi without revising the eOectoraO roOOs. The &(& under pressure from the &ongress Oeadership wiOted and announced tameOy that he wouOd conduct the eOections in 0angaOdoi on the basis of the eOectoraO roOOs.

This eOection of )ebruary was a farce. )or the peopOe of Assam it was a bOoodbath. 0ore than four thousand peopOe were kiOOed in Ă&#x20AC;rings by the poOice and paramiOitary forces on crowds agitating against the eOection. )or two weeks in Assam from )ebruary to )ebruary , the state was at war. In an atavistic fren]y, the Assamese caste +indus and the BengaOi 0usOims and +indus fought pitched battOes in the dry paddy Ă&#x20AC;eOds with spears and bows and arrows. To a spectator it wouOd appear that he had by mistake Oanded in the 0iddOe Ages.

The centraO government had one more MoOt for the Assamese peopOe. Smarting from the spirit shown by the Assamese peopOe, the centraO government OegisOated an act caOOed the IOOegaO 0igrant Determination by TribunaO Act (I0DT) in , ostensibOy to faciOitate the detection of foreigners in Assam. This was a crueO Moke on the Assamese peopOe.

)oreigners movement In Assam, the resuOt of this turnaround was eOectric. The different groups who were agitating against foreigners in Assam, the AOO Assam Students 8nion (AAS8), the Ahom -atiyatabadi <uba &hatra Parishad (A-<&P) and the Ahom Sahitya Sabha combined to form the *ana Sangram Parishad and started the )oreigners 0ovement. This was a uniTue movement and resembOed the disobedience of the 4uit India 0ovement of .

When it ended on )ebruary, the youth of Assam had decided that they wouOd have no option but to take to the gun. The 8nited /iberation )ront of Assam (8/)A) was born as a resuOt of the bOoodbath of an eOection. They contacted the NationaOist SociaO &ounciO

The I0DT Act actuaOOy made it virtuaOOy impossibOe to detect a foreigner. )irstOy, the centre directed that the )oreigners Act wouOd not appOy in Assam. In its pOace the I0DT Act wouOd appOy onOy in Assam. 8nder the I0DT Act, it was for the PoOice to prove that the suspect was a foreigner, not for the accused to show that he was an Indian. In aOO such Acts across the worOd, it was for the suspect foreigner to prove that he was a nationaO.

the cut-off year. Two years after the eOection and continuaO attrition on the Oeaders of the agitation in Assam, they Ă&#x20AC;naOOy decided to sign an accord with the centraO government. The Assam Accord was signed in . 5egrettabOy the Oeaders of the agitation who had stood off the bOandishments of the centre for years succumbed to the Oure of power and agreed to accept as the cut-off year. The moment this was done the +ome 0inistry must have Oet out a huge sigh of reOief. The &iti]enship Act of India was promptOy amended and the cut-off year was now shown as and not , courtesy the Assam Accord,

)ataO Ă aw The *overnment of India had Ă&#x20AC;naOOy found a way out of the impasse after keeping the issue hanging Ă&#x20AC;re for years There was however one point

0eanwhiOe from the time of the meeting between Indira *andhi and Sheikh 0uMibur 5ehman, the issue of the cut-off year was hanging Ă&#x20AC;re. The foreigners agitation started in . 'uring the agitation, the Oeaders of the AAS8 were continuaOOy pressurised to accept as the cut-off year, but despite aOO bOandishments, they refused to accept as the cut-off year for detection of foreigners. After four years of agitation, in which Oakhs of peopOe courted arrest and shook the whoOe state, the centraO government decided to force an eOection on Assam.

under the )oreigners Act was carried out. &hanging this date was therefore both iOOegaO and immoraO. The iOOegaO migration from BangOadesh continued Oike an irresistibOe tide after . And it had been so persistent that the then Director of the InteOOigence Bureau, B. N. 0uOOick had pointed to the dangers of this iOOegaO migration of BengaOi 0usOims into Assam, West BengaO and Tripura, rendering some of the border districts into maMority BengaOi 0usOim popuOations by

The cut-off year for detection of illegal migrants from East Pakistan was 1951 as per the provisions of the Citizenship Act of India. The National Register of Citizens was prepared on the basis of 1951 being the cut-off year. And it was on the basis of this National Register of Citizens that detection and investigation of cases under the Foreigners Act was carried out. Changing this date was therefore both illegal and immoral

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

of NagaOand (NS&N) in 'imapur and soon the Ă&#x20AC;rst cadres were on their way to the NS&N camp in the Sagaing Division of Burma for training.

Assam accord 0eanwhiOe there was the case of the cut-off year. )or years now there was no OegaO basis for making as

that the *overnment of India did not think about. +ow couOd the cut-off date of deciding citi]enship be decided in an agreement between the centraO government and a group of student

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east

Oeaders of one state in India be binding on aOO the states in India" 0eanwhiOe the I0DT Act had been chaOOenged in a PubOic Interest /itigation (PI/) in the Supreme &ourt. The court Ă&#x20AC;naOOy decided the case in after Oong years that the I0DT Act was unconstitutionaO and iOOegaO and repeaOed it. This was a serious bOow to the &ongress party, grievousOy affecting its vote bank in Assam and eOsewhere. AOso, the eOections were due in Assam in 0ay . It was not Oong before the &ongress party pOaced two amendments to the )oreigners TribunaOs 2rder under the )oreigners Act on the TabOe of ParOiament. The Ă&#x20AC;rst order amended the originaO 2rder making it appOicabOe to aOO states in India e[cept Assam. The second amendment issued a new version of the 2rder appOicabOe onOy to Assam. +erein it stated that the centraO government or any authority speciĂ&#x20AC;ed shall by order refer the Tuestion as to whether a person is or is not a foreignerÂŤ to a TribunaO (ItaOics mine). In the originaO 2rder it was stated that the centraO government may by order refer the Tuestion as to whether a person is or is not a foreigner to the TribunaO (ItaOics mine).

Security compromised By a cOever ruse, the &ongress party brought back the provisions of the I0DT Act, the provisions that the Supreme &ourt had ruOed as unconstitutionaO and iOOegaO. Was this not contempt of the Supreme &ourtâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s decision repeaOing the I0DT Act" The &ongress party pOayed this subterfuge on the peopOe of Assam, compOeteOy throwing to the winds aOO considerations of the security of the country. AOO this for the vote bank for the coming eOection. It is tragic that in India today we onOy have poOiticians who cannot see beyond the tips of their noses. There are no more statesmen who can see into the ne[t decade, the ne[t century. Does the party reaOise the forces that they have unOeashed by this most pueriOe of decisions"

Terror ceOOs Today there are severaO IsOamic fundamentaOist insurgent groups in Assam created with the heOp of the Directorate *eneraO )orces InteOOigence (D*)I) of BangOadesh and the Pakistan Inter-Services InteOOigence (ISI). The main groups are the 0usOim 8nited

north-east

SMOULDERING /iberation )ront of Assam, the 0usOim 8nited /iberation Tigers of Assam and the IsOamic /iberation Army of Assam. These insurgent groups are in the vanguard for Oebensraum for BangOadesh. In August , the Assam PoOice arrested four insurgents who had come from Pakistan by air to Dacca and crossed over iOOegaOOy through the KarimganM border with a pOan to sabotage instaOOations in India. 2n interrogation, they confessed that the +arkat-uO--ihad-e-IsOami, BangOadesh had recruited and sent a number of young BengaOi 0usOim immigrants from Assam to Pakistan for training in ISI sponsored camps of muMahideen. Based on this information, the Assam PoOice was abOe to arrest a number of immigrant BengaOi 0usOims who had been trained in Pakistan. They aOso arrested one 0uhammad 0usOimideen, the &hief 2rganiser of the +8-I BangOadesh in India. They found that the Naib Amir of the +8-I in Assam 0uhammad )akhruddin from *oaOpara in Assam was now based in Pakistan ( ). What is most interesting about these IsOamic fundamentaOist insurgent groups is that they have not done any operations tiOO now. Interrogation and inteOOigence reports have reveaOed that they are in a phase of preparation now. They are to motivate, recruit cadres, train them in Pakistan, stockpiOe arms and e[pOosives and motivate the peopOe for the coming insurgency. The target date is reported to be in . It is certain that severe communaO rioting wiOO break out in Assam, West BengaO and Tripura aOong the fauOtOines between the immigrant 0usOims and the OocaO peopOe. The infamous eOection of was a forerunner for this prognosis. The seTueO to this communaO rioting wiOO be the eruption of a BengaOi 0usOim insurrection spearheaded by the BengaOi 0usOim insurgent groups now seed-bedded in Assam. And this wiOO be an insurgency to get a homeOand for the immigrant BengaOi 0usOims in Assam. The act of reviving the provisions of the I0DT Act sends a cOear message that inĂ&#x20AC;Otration into Assam is faciOitated is the Ă&#x20AC;rst sign to the enemy that India is a soft state.

Postscript

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

A PubOic Interest /itigation was Ă&#x20AC;Oed by the President of the AOO Assam Students 8nion in the Supreme &ourt praying for repeaOing the )oreigners (TribunaOs for Assam) 2rder . This order had been notiĂ&#x20AC;ed by the +ome 0inistry to bring back the provisions of the IOOegaO 0igrants Determination by TribunaO Act (I0DT) through the back door. The Supreme &ourt struck down the amended order deOivering a sOap in the face to the +ome 0inistry.

WICKED NEXUS

BANDITRY:

H. N. Das, IAS

With this order of the Supreme &ourt, the two amendments to the )oreigners (TribunaOs) for Assam 2rder made by the +ome 0inistry were annuOOed. Thus the originaO )oreigners TribunaO 2rder was restored. This was appOicabOe to the whoOe of India. The state government shouOd therefore have reverted to registering cases under the )oreigners Act since under the originaO order the government onOy may notify a tribunaO, not shaOO notify a tribunaO. The government of Assam has however not reverted to the system of registering cases under the )oreigners Act and charge sheeting the cases in court. They continue to forward aOO cases under the )oreigners Act to a )oreigners TribunaO, thereby making it again virtuaOOy impossibOe to deport iOOegaO immigrants from BangOadesh. If the procedure of registering cases under the )oreigners Act is revived, as it shouOd have been, cases couOd be Ă&#x20AC;naOised much more e[peditiousOy. Notes: ( ) 2ur /and, their /iving Space. D. N. Be]baruah in BangOadesh, Treading the TaOiban TraiO. -aideep Saikia. 9ision Books. . ( ) ISI Activities in Assam. Statement Oaid on the tabOe of the Assam /egisOative AssembOy, Item- dated ApriO by the &hief 0inister of Assam. The writer is 196 batch IPS ofĂ&#x20AC;cer of Assam cadre. He has been Suptdt. of Police Khasi Hills Shillong, Deputy Inspector General of Police - Northern Range Tezpur during infamous election of 1983, Inspector General of Police Operations Guwahati during op Bajrang and op Rhino, SP and DIG CBI, IGP CRPF north-east IG BSF Kashmir 199395. DG BSF 1997-2000. Advisor to Governor of Manipur 2001-2002. Member National ecurity Council Advisory Board 2005-2006.

the ideology? 7he 1aga insurgency is the oldest in the north-east. It germinated from a seed of separatism sown as in -ammu and .ashmir by a %ritish ofĂ&#x20AC;cial. 7he ethnic code rang similar chimes among tribes and groups in the rest of the â&#x20AC;&#x153;Seven SistersÂľ and most Ă ourished because of contiguity to neighbours inimical to India. For long the Chittagong Hill tracts in the former east wing of Pakistan and a %urma later Myanmar caught up in the vorte[ of its own instabilities were sanctuaries. Over the years ideology has given way to banditry as a way of life and good governance has become the crying need of the region.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east

WICKED NEXUS

hen insurgency was started in the north-eastern region of India by different outÀts in different ethnic areas, each such insurgency was based on ideaOism. The ideaOism was that of winning “freedom” for the particuOar ethnic community and achieving that community’s economic deveOopment and weOfare. The Nagas, for e[ampOe, were the Àrst to raise the banner of revoOt, instigated by a certain high British ofÀcer, Must before India gained independence. The Nagas feOt that they had no afÀnity whatsoever with India and, therefore, they started a movement for a separate e[istence out of India. They organised a terrorist outÀt and started e[tensive damage to Oife and property. They kiOOed many members of the security forces, deraiOed raiOway trains and Oooted private and pubOic property. Their outÀt, however, Oater spOit into three: Naga NationaO &ounciO (NN&), NationaO SociaOist

empOoyee, each trader and owner of production units, each peddOer and hawker, each empOoyee of pubOic and private sector undertakings have to pay reguOar contributions every week or every month to these outÀts in NagaOand. This is something Oike “income ta[” or “empOoyment ta[”. In the case of sums of money taken out of government treasury against biOOs and in aOO cases of Oarge transactions, either private or pubOic, a percentage is pre-deducted and paid to these outÀts. This is something Oike “service ta[”. In 0anipur the situation is simiOar. Besides, there is an “undecOared night curfew” imposed by the insurgents which stop aOO economic and sociaO activities between dusk and dawn. In Tripura aOso the situation was eTuaOOy bad. It has, however, improved tremendousOy during the past one decade of good governance by &hief

0inister 0anik Sarkar. In Assam the situation was simiOar tiOO about the s. It has improved during recent times.

8nhoOy ne[us PoOiticians have to pay the outÀts in order to remain in power and to get eOected or re-eOected. In the case of two former &hief 0inisters &hiten -amir of NagaOand (who Oater became *overnor of 0aharashtra) and 5ishang Keishang of 0anipur - the respective *overnors were reported to have compOained of each &hief 0inister’s Àduciary reOationship with the insurgent outÀts. In the case of Assam the media reported many instances of ÀnanciaO ne[us or connection between poOiticians and ofÀciaOs on one hand and the insurgent units on the other. This incOuded one very serious aOOegation made by opposition Oeaders and the media of payment to the 8nited /iberation )ront of Assam in order to buy peace during the rd NationaO *ames heOd in *uwahati in . There are many cases of BOock DeveOopment 2fÀcers and other senior pubOic functionaries being arrested on charges of payment of government money to insurgent units. The most gOaring instance has been that of the arrest and prosecution under NationaO Investigation Agency (NIA) Act of the then &hief ([ecutive 0ember of the autonomous district counciO of North &achar +iOOs. This &ounciO functions under ScheduOe 9I of the Indian &onstitution. The arrest was made whiOe trying to pay 5s. crore from government account to Dima +aOam Daogah (-eweO *orOosa) or BOack Widow, the most dangerous insurgent unit of that district.

Scams gaOore Again, &ounciO of NagaOand (NS&N-KhapOang) and NS&N (Isak-0uivah).

([tensive e[tortion These outÀts needed arms and ammunitions as aOso rations for their “soOdiers” who Oive in camps. (ven some saOary has to be paid to the soOdiers. So they started coOOecting money by kidnapping, e[tortion and simiOar terrorist means. The situation today is such that each government

the

same

district

In the case of Assam the media reported many instances of ¿nancial ne[us or connection between politicians and of¿cials on one hand and the insurgent units on the other. This included one very serious allegation made by opposition leaders and the media of payment to the United Liberation Front of Assam in order to buy peace during the 33rd National Games held in Guwahati in 2007

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

5s. , crore scam has been recentOy unearthed. The surprising thing is that the main accused of this scam—Daogah &hief NiranMan +oMai - escaped from the high security Designated &amp. It is aOOeged that +oMai had the assistance of security forces in his escape. This impugned amount incOudes Oarge payments to insurgent units. The “Week” maga]ine aOOeged that some ministers of Assam are aOso invoOved with this case. This case has been handed over to the &entraO Bureau of Investigation for a thorough enTuiry. A defamation case is now pending against the periodicaO. This has been ÀOed by a minister. In the other autonomous hiOO district of Karbi AngOong a simiOar scam has been aOOeged amounting to 5s. , crore. No action seems to have been taken in this case so far e[cept for ordering an audit by the &omptroOOer and Auditor *eneraO of India. In the BodoOand TerritoriaO Autonomous Districts areas substantiaO funds are aOOeged to have been passed on to the rebeO outÀts by peopOe in power and position.

Oost their ideaOism and have become money e[tortion units. SubstantiaO funds meant for economic deveOopment have been diverted to these insurgent units. This has meant that growth has not been commensurate. ActuaOOy, the funds provided shouOd have achieved much more if properOy spent in the proMects, schemes and programmes for which these funds were aOOocated. As a conseTuence many deveOopment sectors have suffered. 2utside investment has been minimaO mainOy because of uncertain Oaw and order situation created by insurgency. In some cases Áight of capitaO has aOso taken pOace. Thousands of crores of rupees have been sent out to pay for arms and ammunitions smuggOed from countries in (urope and south-east Asia through BangOadesh and 0yanmar. BangOadesh has become a maMor conduit for arms smuggOing. The consignments

IndustriaOists coOOude 0any industries have suffered. The tea industry has been one of the earOiest victims. This industry Oost Tuite a few manageriaO personneO at the beginning. The industry captains, however, cOeverOy made their own “arrangements” with 8/)A. Some of these arrangements were Oater unearthed. This incOudes one case of rather inept handOing. It was the secret meeting between an 8/)A team and Tata Tea senior e[ecutives in Bangkok and the Oatter’s assistance to certain 8/)A Oeaders in 0umbai. A number of simiOar payments to 8/)A, NationaO Democratic )ront of BodoOand and other outÀts were aOso found out. ActuaOOy, 8/)A had emphasised the roOe of tea industry in Assam’s economic deveOopment in the very beginning. In a candidOy written brochure in 8/)A appeaOed for “a

Beside aOO these substantiaO amounts of money Áow from the state and the centraO governments. These incOude the e[penditure on insurgency controO, payments to Army and paramiOitary forces and other e[penses. 0oreover, the rebeOs who are now on ceaseÀre, get e[penses from the government for their maintenance in the Designated &amps. The surrendered members of the outOawed units get government Ooans and other faciOities, which run into hundreds of crores of rupees. 0any more such cases may be cited. In the states of ArunachaO Pradesh and 0eghaOaya insurgency is nominaO. In the past some smaOO incidents took pOace. These couOd be easiOy controOOed in these states. But 0i]oram had very bad history of insurgency in the s. The situation is much better at the moment.

Insurgency as industry As a resuOt of insurgency the entire economic situation has assumed a pecuOiar shape in north-eastern region In fact, insurgency has now graduated into a maMor money making industry from the micro and cottage stages. 0oney has become the main factor behind the continuance of insurgency. It has aOso become the main source of inspiration and sustenance for these outÀts. 0ost of the insurgent units have

meant for north-east are reaOOy huge as evidenced by the hauO of weapons from the ships caught in &hittagong port. According to a survey by the NationaO &ounciO of AppOied (conomic 5esearch the iOOegaO trade deÀcit amounting to about 8S biOOion per annum, owed by BangOadesh to India, is being surreptitiousOy adMusted against the payments made by the insurgent outÀts for the cost of arms smuggOed into the north-east.

change of attitude”. That was the time when 8/)A kiOOed Surrendra PauO of Assam )rontier Tea &ompany. +e was the younger brother of /ord SwaraM PauO. In a message, which 8/)A itseOf described as “Ooud and cOear”, the outÀt warned that “the discrimination and inMustice to the peopOe of Assam have been meted out for far too Oong now and unOess urgent steps are taken to rectify this situation, there wiOO be very costOy disorder to the detriment of aOO concerned”.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east

WICKED NEXUS

Now an estimate has been made that a whopping amount of Rs. 60,000 crore out of central government funds has been passed on to the insurgent units during the past 20 years. This estimate appears to be reliable because the source quoted is the Revenue Intelligence Bureau of the Government of India and detailed statewise Âżgures have been given for the years from 198788 to 2007-08 There is no reOiabOe estimate of the totaO amount of money which the insurgent outĂ&#x20AC;ts have coOOected so far. In the past a *overnor of Assam had reported to the President on November , that 8/)A had coOOected 5s. crore. That was Oong ago. Todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Ă&#x20AC;gures are in thousands of crores. Some time Oater the then 8nion 0inister for 5uraO DeveOopment, 9enkaiyah Naidu, had warned the state governments that ruraO deveOopment funds are not meant for insurgent outĂ&#x20AC;ts. Now an estimate has been made that a whopping amount of 5s. , crore out of centraO government funds has been passed on to the insurgent units during the past years. This estimate appears to be reOiabOe because the source Tuoted is the 5evenue InteOOigence Bureau of the *overnment of India and detaiOed statewise Ă&#x20AC;gures have been given for the years from - to - . (Amar Asom, . . )

/eaders enriched Where has aOO the e[torted money gone" Beside e[penses on weapons, upkeep of cadres and saOary considerabOe amounts have been syphoned off by the Oeaders. It has been reported that these Oeaders have invested hundreds

of crores in foreign banks and in industries and businesses abroad. They and their famiOies Oive very Ou[urious Oives. The Oife styOe of -eweO *arOosa, D+D Oeader, made waves when the detaiOs were pubOished. The psychoOogicaO impacts of the money cuOture has been terriĂ&#x20AC;c. &orruption has spread and has become aOO pervasive. Not many peopOe beOieve that any one can remain free of corruption. The corrupt poOiticians, bureaucrats, technocrats and their cohorts are the easy targets of insurgents. *overnments are giving much more importance to surrendered insurgents and are pampering them with Ooans, subsidies and Mobs.

&orruption breeds insurgency The miOOion unempOoyed youths have become disheartened and feeO discriminated against because Mobs are not avaiOabOe for them. This has forced some of them to Moin the insurgent outĂ&#x20AC;ts. 9ictims of e[tortion have become difĂ&#x20AC;dent. Some are resigned to their fate because neither the security forces nor the civiO society wiOO heOp them. In 0anipur the ta[i drivers went on strike recentOy against insurgent outĂ&#x20AC;tsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; orders to pay 5s. , each. But no one supported or assisted them. 0any more such instances of both

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

monetary and psychoOogicaO impacts on the peace Ooving peopOe can be cited. It must be admitted that inspite of aOO these happenings Oife has continued and some deveOopment is taking pOace. The damages caused to infrastructure, business, trade, pubOic and private property are immense. But recouperation aOso has been reasonabOy Tuick. It must be emphasised, however, that the funds reOeased for economic deveOopment to north-eastern states by the *overnment of India and particuOarOy by the D2N(5 0inistry, couOd have achieved much more in terms of growth but for insurgency. The onOy way out to controO insurgency is to stop the money Ă ow to these units. The state governments shouOd take up this task urgentOy. The writer joined IAS in 1961 and served the Government of India (as Director in the Ministry of Finance) and the Government of Assam in different capacities before retiring from IAS on 28.02.1995. He was Chief Secretary to the Govt. of Assam from 28.02.1990 to 28.02.1995 and Director General and Advisor, Assam Administrative Staff College from 11.02.1987 to 14.05.1996.

north-east

INFLAMMABLE

L Manipur is the anti-thesis of the Maoist situation where the demand for deployment of the Indian Army and concomitant infrastructural development is being presented as a solution. In Manipur, there are two divisions of troops but whatever little development that has taken place is in a state of decay. The politician-terrorist nexus has to be cut and Muivah will have to be told in no uncertain terms that Greater Nagalim inclusive of his native village is out of the question.

oktak is the largest freshwater lake in the north-east of India. The 500 sq. kilometer lake has been encroached upon during last 60 years and only 236.21 sq. kilometer remains as the core and peripheral area of the lake with 14 hills of different height protruding from it. This unique water body gave a distinct identity to the state of Manipur, the Jewel of the East. Located at the southern end of the 7000 sq. kilometer Imphal valley Loktak has been a part of economic activities and cultural heritage of the valley dwelling Meitei people. However, placidity of the lake is not reÁected in the moods of the people and the violent courses of action some valley Meiteis adopted to realise their so-called political goal - independence.

it is alleged by Meiteis that the Maharaja was forced to visit Shillong, then capital of Assam and sign a treaty of accession on September 21, 1949. Maharaja Bodh Chandra signed on behalf of the state of Manipur and V. P. Menon on behalf of the Governor General of India and witnessed by the Governor of Assam Sri Prakash. The vital document consists of 9 clauses and clause number I reads“Article I. His Highness the Maharajah of Manipur hereby cedes to the Dominion Government full and exclusive authority, jurisdiction and powers for and in relation to the governance of the State and agrees to transfer the administration of the State to the Dominion Government on the Àfteenth day of October 1949 (thereinafter referred to as “the said day”). As from the said day the Dominion Government will be competent to exercise the said powers, authority and jurisdiction in such manner and through such agency as it may think Àt.”

Maloy Krishna Dhar

The treaty that merged Manipur with India was not universally acclaimed by all Meiteis. From the beginning sections of royalists and traditionalists held the view that Manipur was under titular suzerainty of the British and after they quit the paramountcy reverted back to the Maharaja. Some of them also raised another bogey that Pundit Nehru had formalised the cession of Kabaw Valley which once formed the part of Manipur to the Burmese government. This is a red herring allegation. The transfer of Kabaw Valley was done under British

Ma nipur: Maharaja’s accession

Manipur had emerged as an independent state under the king after British paramountcy lapsed. However,

Kashmir of East?

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east

INFLAMMABLE

supervision and the boundary of Manipur and Burma was well settled by 1935. The government of India only ratiÀed a new border agreement with Burma.

Left-wing dissent What led to the growth of separatism amongst sections of the Meiteis? The seed of separatism was sown by communist leader H. Irabot Singh. He had planned an armed struggle for liberating Manipur and establishing a pro-Moscow regime. He followed the ideology of the Communist Party of India. The left-wing dissent continued to ignite imagination of the youth. They were encouraged by people of royal descent and people who harboured the thin dream of restoring the monarchy. The psyche of Meitei nationalist ideology was strengthened by agitation for replacement of Bengali script by ancient Meitei script. Recognition of Meitei language in the Ninth Schedule of the Constitution, restoration of the fort of Kangla on a patch of land occupied by the Assam RiÁes and conferment of statehood on Manipur.

Corruption In the meantime, Delhi’s direct administration through the Chief Commissioner offered group C union territory status to Manipur and was dominated by the ofÀcers deputed

from other parts of India - the IAS, IPS, engineers, doctors etc. Arbitrary rule by the Chief Commissioners as per policies laid down by Delhi had created a separate class of rulers of outside origin, called Mayangs by the Meiteis. The government of India had taken over all administrative responsibilities of the King but in reality there was maladministration or no administration. Corruption right from the Chief Commissioner to the lowest rung of bureaucracy introduced Indian culture of plundering public money by the rulers. Between 1950 and 1960 Manipur did not see any tangible economic development, medium and small scale industry and agro-based industries. Cultivation of silk remained a household commercial venture and spinning of thread and weaving also was dominated by the womenfolk. The government made very negligible investment.

Maltreatment Educationally also Manipur had to look forward to Assam or West Bengal. Very few could send their children to Delhi and other places. While the Hill Tribals were treated as Scheduled tribes the Valley Meiteis were treated as upper caste Hindus. With poor educational facilities only a handful of youth could compete in all India services. Outside Manipur the Meiteis were treated as

On May 22, 1990, the UNLF, along with other insurgent groups operating in the north-east – the National Socialist Council of NagalandKhaplang, the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), and the Kuki National Army – Àoated a pan-Mongoloid coalition called the Indo-Burma Revolutionary Front (IBRF) to wage a united struggle for the independence of Indo-Burma region 30

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

foreign strangers. The Manipuris and the rest of Indians did not mix up well. The outsiders were treated as Mayangs and the Meiteis were treated as sub-humans, despite their fabulously rich cultural heritage. Besides paddy cultivation (mostly one crop) the populace had no other venue for employment. Gradually some youths joined lower ranks of government services, police, Manipur RiÁes and other armed police forces. On the other hand a good number of youths were trained by the SSB in armed combat as a reserve force to work behind the enemy lines during any war. To get a government job one had to shell out huge bribe money. In the midst of insurgency in the Naga Hills of Manipur and Mizo and allied Kuki rebellion the Meitei youth also smarted under the impression that without taking up arms they would not get concession from Delhi. Some of the SSB trained youths looked up to Arambam Somorendra Singh, an ideologue and R. K. Meghen and R. K. Ronen two sons of the Manipur SSB chief R. K. Madhurjit Singh. In the meantime Nagaland was given full state status in 1963. Along with it started the demand for Greater Nagaland with portions of Naga inhabited areas of Manipur and Assam. The Naga demand on the one hand and the Mizo demand for merger

of Thanlon etc. areas with proposed Mizoram created a fear psychosis in Meitei minds. Their demand for statehood intensiÀed. By I964 United National Liberation Front (UNLF) was Áoated by Arambam Somorendra Singh and his group of Àrebrand youths. That was the beginning of insurgency in the valley. Anti-India sentiment pervaded through the younger generation, but the government of India did not do much to understand the agonies of the Meiteis.

ideological consciousness before launching an armed struggle, the more radical leader Oinam Sudhir Kumar and N. Biseswar Singh established a Revolutionary Government of Manipur (RGM). Somorendra Singh was killed by unidentiÀed terrorists in Imphal on June 10, 2001. In the seventies and eighties, the UNLF concentrated mainly on mobilisation and recruitment. In 1990, it decided to launch an armed struggle for the ‘liberation’ of Manipur from India. In the same year, it formed an armed wing called Manipur People’s Army (MPA).

Encouraging intervention

The UNLF aims to establish an independent socialist Manipur. Rajkumar Meghen alias Sana Yaima, son of R. K. Madhurjit of SSB and a former air force ofÀcer is the current Chairman of UNLF. Other important leaders include ‘General Secretary’ Th. Sanachou; ‘Secretary of Defence’ A. Wangpa; ‘Secretary of Organisation’ M. Nongyai; and ‘Secretary of Publicity’ N. Thabal. The Women’s wing Chief is Nganbi Devi; Deputy Women’s wing Chief: Banti Devi. The then UNLF Chairman, Namuizum Okendra was arrested on May 19, 1993.

The senior echelons of the civil and police administration neglected the emerging wrath of the people. The Chief Commissioner was contemptuous about the indigenous people and always promoted the outsiders. His personal corruption also encouraged the lower formations to plunder public assets freely. Taking advantage of the boiling cauldron of anger some youths formed the Revolutionary Government of Manipur (RGM) in the style of an underground government in Nagaland. Oinam Sudhir and Namrekpam Biseswar led a contingent of youth to (east) Pakistan for training and weapons. In the meantime the agitation for statehood of Manipur intensiÀed and the agitators even attacked the meeting venue of Indira Gandhi at Imphal in September 1969. Around the same time the Naga and Mizo insurgents also intensiÀed their armed struggle. Taking advantage of the popular upsurge the UNLF intensiÀed mass campaign and Ànalised preparations for armed struggle.

UNLF armed struggle As stated earlier the United National Liberation Front, the oldest Meitei insurgent group in the state was formed under the leadership of Arambam Somorendra Singh on November 24, 1964 to achieve independence and a socialist society. A Pan-Manipuri Youth League was formed in December 1968, which functioned as an overground body for the UNLF. The PMYL actively built-up mass agitation in support of statehood demand. Later, differences within the outÀt surfaced over the issue of strategies to be adopted. While Somorendra Singh sought to spread

The outÀt’s armed wing maintains a communication and publicity cell. The outÀt operates in the Jiribam valley and Cachar district of Assam. It has strong presence in Imphal valley as well.

Pan-Mongoloid coalition Soon after its formation, the UNLF leaders established political relationship with the authorities of the then East Pakistan and underwent military training in that country in 1969. They also supported the Pakistani army during the 1971 Bangladesh liberation war. Later, the group also developed relationship with China even while continuing its relations with Pakistan. On June 14, 1975, UNLF leader N. Biseswar Singh and 16 other Meitei rebels proceeded to Lhasa to seek Chinese assistance. This group was intercepted. The group has links with Naga rebel outÀts as well. On May 22, 1990, the UNLF, along with other insurgent groups operating in the north-east – the National Socialist Council of Nagaland–Khaplang, the United Liberation Front of Assam and the Kuki National Army – Áoated a pan-Mongoloid coalition called the Indo-Burma Revolutionary Front to wage a united struggle for the independence of Indo-Burma region.

The UNLF has training camps in Myanmar and Bangladesh, mostly in Manipuri inhabited areas of Sylhet.

Twenty-four armed groups: There are about two dozen armed terrorist groups in Manipur. The prominent ones are: Kangleipak Communist party (KCP); Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL); Manipur People’s Liberation Front; People’s Liberation Army; People’s Liberation Party of Kangleipak and United Liberation Front (all proscribed and banned.)

Other groups active in the hill district are: Hmar People’s Convention-Democracy (HPC-D); Kuki Liberation Army (KLA); Kuki National Army (KNA); Kuki National Front (KNF); Kuki Revolutionary Army (KRA); National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM); United Kuki Liberation Front (UKLF) and Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA). Organisational details of all these outÀts are too complicated. The Kuki outÀts are divided as they are organised according to their clan afÀliation. However the NSCN operates in Manipur Naga areas with impunity and runs a parallel government.

Two other important terrorist groups in the valley are: The Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP) was formed on April 13, 1980, under the leadership of Y. Ibohanbi. Although the group is ostensibly Communist, named after the historical name of Manipur, i.e. Kangleipak, the KCP is more concerned with the preservation of Meitei culture and demands secession of Manipur from India. Founder of the KCP, Y. Ibohanbi, was killed during a security force operation in 1995. Subsequently, the KCP split into several factions such as the ones headed by City Meitei (KCP-City Meitei), Prithvi (KCP-P), Mangang (KCP-M) and Noyon (KCP-N). On May 30, 2005, four front-ranking KCP cadres, including Moirangthem Boicha alias Prithvi, chief of the KCP-P and his wife Ibemcha Devi were killed during an encounter with the security forces (SFs) at Nongada Makha Leikai in Imphal east district. However, following a decision taken during a Àve-day central committee

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east

INFLAMMABLE

Large scale production of coffee and rubber is feasible provided the government of Manipur and the NorthEast Development Council prepare plans and invite investment from entrepreneurs. No such tangible efforts have been made in last 60 years. Manipur Hills produce good quantity of pineapple, orange and some apple. No effort has been made to introduce orchard cultivation of fruits, ginger and cardamom in commercial quantity Sisters’ region of India.

meeting held during May 4-8, 2006, the KCP factions are reported to have merged. The main objective of KCP is to restore the independence of the erstwhile Manipur kingdom and to bring about an egalitarian society, which is to be achieved by uniting all ethnic-Mongoloid groups belonging to south-east of Himalayan region, liberating Manipur from the Indian rule, building up the strength of the working class and reviving the indigenous culture.

Rule by decree The KCP has, in the past, passed decrees with an objective of widening its level of social acceptability. In February 2005, it banned government doctors in Manipur from working in private clinics. In April 2005, the KCP pressed for the introduction of the Manipuri script, Meetei Mayek, in educational institutions in the state. In September 2005, the outÀt banned shooting and exhibition of digital movies and music albums for a year. The KCP held its ‘second national convention’ on October 20-23, 2006, at an undisclosed location in Manipur and reconstituted the Party Central Committee. The party

hierarchy consists of: President: Senggoi Meetei Vice President: K. K. Mangang General Secretary: K. K. Nganba Information and Publicity: H. Poirei Organisation Secretary: Sh. Pakhangba

Well-armed The KCP started with a small number of cadres. However, its strength has grown over the years and presently, it is known to have about 300 active participants. Half of its active cadres are known to possess an array of weapons ranging from AK series riÁes, US carbines, Chinese made grenades and mortars. The KCP is mostly active in the valley areas of Manipur, though it has also been found to be engaged in extortion and other activities in the hill districts, such as Churachandpur. Like most other insurgent groups in the north-east, the KCP funds its activities through extortion of local villagers and businessmen. The KCP has a close working relationship with most of the outÀts operating in the valley districts of Manipur. Even though, the UNLF had imposed a ban on the City Meitei

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

faction of the KCP in the beginning of 2006, the ban was reportedly revoked to pave way for the uniÀcation of various factions. In October 2005, the KYKL too had banned the KCP-P. In the past, the KCP maintained operational linkages with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang and the United Liberation Front of Assam.

Social vigilantism Besides the KCP the KYKL is an active terrorist group in the valley. Kanglei Yawol Kanba Lup (Organisation to Save the Revolutionary Movement in Manipur) was formed in January 1994. It is basically funded through extortion. The group is well known for its violent vigilantism and decrees aimed at rebuilding Manipuri society by cleansing it of immoral activities. Although known for its ethnic diversity, Manipur is also famous for its diversity of violent insurgent groups. Some of these groups are protection outÀts for certain tribes or ethnic groups, while others are somewhat more nationalist in their aims. The KYKL, although chieÁy made up of ethnic Meiteis, is focused almost solely on social reform, despite the fact that the group espouses the nationalist goal of a uniÀed ‘Seven

Although KYKL occasionally participates in attacks on other rival terrorist groups in Manipur and against Indian security forces in the region, the group is mostly focused on social vigilantism. Since its foundation the group has mounted numerous attacks against people and institutions it deems immoral. Along with allegedly corrupt politicians, drug dealers and prostitutes, the KYKL has attacked teachers, journalists and HIV-positive innocents in an effort to supposedly cleanse Manipur of unwanted elements. The group has issued decrees banning Hindi Àlms, women wearing pants and newspapers using Hindi script. The group maintains links with many of the other insurgent groups in the region, including the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak Muivah and the Zomi Revolutionary Army. Like most Manipuri outÀts, the KYKL is funded through extortion.

Discontentment Despite being one of the smaller groups in Manipur, the KYKL continues to intimidate, threaten and attack its perceived enemies. While the KYKL may not see its goal of a uniÀed Seven Sisters in remote future, the group can be considered highly active and a threat to the safety and security of the region. The scenario is grim. While India Àghts jihadists in Kashmir, in Manipur it has not been able to contain the discontentment of the populace though there is an elected government of some kind. The political government is under the mercy of the terrorist groups and some of the politicians are known to be in cahoots with terrorists. Some of them shelter the terrorists. They silence them by paying hefty amounts. In Manipur everyone has to pay to the armed

groups - government servants, teachers, doctors, contractors and all other professionals including the business community. On the one hand they pay to the terrorists and on the other they plunder the exchequer. Merely 15-20 per cent of government expenditure is utilised in developmental activities. Educational institutions are in a big mess. The All Manipur Student’s Union and other militant groups realise protection money from the teaching staff. The terrorists like the Taliban, issue dictates about dress code, close down institutions on the slightest pretext and often physically assault teachers coming from other parts of India. The main DM College campus and the Manipur University campus are run basically by the terrorists. They are the deciding factors in most administrative matters. What has caused such a calamitous situation in Manipur? Nearly two divisions of army and paramilitary forces are deployed in the valley and the hills. There are more daily clashes and attacks in Manipur than in Kashmir. The populace, on the slightest pretext takes to the streets and paralyses normal administration. Right from the Chief Minister to the lowest government employee has to pay minimum 10 per cent of their income to different terrorist groups. The terrorists freely move in the business centers and raise weekly contribution. Any youth seeking government employment has to pay anything between 3-5 lakh as gratiÀcation. Though some Ànancially capable youth seek study courses in Delhi, Kolkata, Bangalore and other cities, the others have to depend on existing educational institutions in Manipur. Quality of education is not good enough to enable the youth to compete with other candidates in superior services in India. However, the

Meiteis have been Ànally recognised as OBC.

Development stasis Industrially Manipur is almost bankrupt. The government sponsored Manipur Cycle Corporation, Manipur Cement Ltd., Manipur Spinning Mills Corporation Ltd., Manipur Pulp & Allied Projects Ltd., Manipur Food Industries Ltd. and Manipur Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Ltd. are bankrupt and sick and are in the process of winding up. There are about 30 Small Scale Industries which are basically agro-based and some are related to handicrafts. Thread spinning is a lucrative business in Manipur. But the job is now partly done by women at home and bulk of the thread is imported from outside markets by the Marwari traders. It is easier to get a Sholapuri shawl in Imphal than original Chador of the Meiteis and the national Chadors of different tribes which are really rich in colour and texture. The Ima (mother) market now suffers from shortage of raw materials and the fabulous Manipuri silk clothes are rare to come by.

Commercial potential The valley has immense potential for pisciculture. OfÀcially some loans are granted. But the avid Àsh eater Meiteis now have to depend on Àsh supply from other parts of India. Lack of railway connectivity renders supply of perishable goods uncertain as most of the time two highways are blockaded by the Meitei or Naga-Kuki agitators. Thus, prices of perishable consumables are very high compared to markets in Assam. Manipur has to depend on rice, pulses, cooking oils etc. imported from other parts of India though way back in 1970s the state was self-sufÀcient in rice

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east

INFLAMMABLE

synonymous with tickling and tackling the terrorists by paying huge amounts and often arranging state protection for them.

Most Meiteis have started asserting own nationalist psyche and gradually cutting off the moorings with Hindu cultural and religious umbilical. They do no more like to use Hindu surnames - Singh and Sharma. Hindu Vaishnavism can no longer keep the Meitei society tied to the cultural apron of India… Can an economist of wider experience be posted in Manipur? Can Congress Party restrain its politicians from bleeding the state by thieving and plundering? production. The Hills produce some quantity of rice and other grains but the jhoom cultivation is still in vogue. In neighbouring Nagaland and parts of Mizoram terrace cultivation has become popular. Lack of government initiative and traditional tribal practices still encourage the people to denude forests for cultivation. Manipur has the unique potential of tea, coffee and rubber cultivation besides the traditional practice of silk cultivation. The plains in Jiribam and lower hills in Tamenglong, Churachandpur, Senapati and Ukhrul are ideal for investment in tea plantation. In same kind of terrain in Barak Valley and North Cachar Hills in Assam and certain areas of Nagaland have been brought under tea plantation. Certain mid-rise hill ranges have similar climatic condition like Kerala. In these areas some individuals have taken up coffee and rubber cultivation. Large scale production of

coffee and rubber is feasible provided the government of Manipur and the North-East Development Council prepare plans and invite investment from entrepreneurs. No such tangible efforts have been made in last 60 years. Manipur Hills produce good quantity of pineapple, orange and some apple. No effort has been made to introduce orchard cultivation of fruits, ginger and cardamom in commercial quantity. These cash crops can earn huge revenue for Manipur. However, plundering of government funds being the main objective, no political leader has so far bothered to import expertise from Assam, Sikkim, Himachal and other states. In addition to chaos in day to day administration, interference in developmental activities and in the sphere of education Manipur has become a fertile ground for hate-India sentiments. Outsider labour forces

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

are discouraged or killed en-masse to drive-in fear. Several such incidents have almost choked migration of labour in Manipur. Almost every month the militants close down the highways connecting the state through Nagaland and through Barak Valley. This results in economic crisis and even shortage of essential commodities. Each truck operator has to pay handsome ransom money to Kuki, Naga and Meitei rebels. The situation presents a picture of horror and anachronism.

Pandering to terrorists Besides, agitation for withdrawal of the Army Special Power Act has become a contentious bone. A lady is reportedly fasting for last four years. There is occasional hartal and closures. The terrorists take shelter in the houses of ministers and legislators and live and operate comfortably from within the villages. Politics in Manipur has become

The most affected districts are Imphal East and West, Thoubal, Kakching, Sugnu, Chapkikarong, Moirang and Bishnupur. The terrorists have set up camps in neighbouring Myanmar and often they manage to buy weapons from Myanmar rebels and even from NSCN(IM) and Bangladesh. It is estimated that in the valley alone there are 4000 active armed terrorists in addition to nearly 1500 NSCN(IM) cadres operating in Naga Hills and nearly 2000 armed Kuki rebels in Kuki dominated areas of Senapati, Churachandpur etc. It is high time that the government of India wakes up and takes stock of the deteriorating situation in the state and takes note of the very high waves of frustration, disillusionment and separate nationalist demand of the Meitei people. The sword of demand for Greater Nagaland after separating Naga areas of Manipur are adding to the anger and frustration of the valley people. The government has to squarely make it clear to the Naga interlocutors that at no point of time it would agree for dismemberment of Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh to please the festering sores called Th. Muivah and Isak Swu. Early clear stand on Naga demands may mollify Meitei sentiments considerably. The latest development of Th. Muivah trying to visit his home village Somdal in Ukhrul with Government of India

approval has raised a serious conÁict situation between the Naga and Meitei inhabitants. Muivah tried to enter Manipur through Mao Gate bordering Nagaland. Manipur police resisted the local Nagas numbering 500 from welcoming the separatist leader of NSCN(IM). Police had to use force resulting in death of one Naga and kidnapping of two police constables by the Naga ultras. Manipur is already a Kashmir like cauldron. Has the GOI any plan to contain the wild Àre of clashes between the Nagas, Kuki tribes and the Meiteis? Obviously the blundering bandicoots have not learnt anything from the treacherous games being played by NSCN and the so-called NGOs supporting it.

Kashmir of east? Has India not reached the last opportunity to plan and invest in comprehensive economic development in the state? It is probably the last chance for the Congress Party to depend more on the people than on the armed forces, a suicidal policy being pursued since the late sixties. Otherwise, Manipur may become another festering Kashmir in the east. Manipur requires a balanced approach for removing the dirt of stinking corruption, unconcern about welfare of the people and for building new economic infrastructures. Most Meiteis have started asserting own nationalist psyche and gradually cutting off the moorings with Hindu cultural and religious umbilical. They do no more

like to use Hindu surnames - Singh and Sharma. A Moirangthem Anouba Singh is now stylised as Anouba Mirangthem. Hopefully Delhi’s intelligence and political worthies have taken note of these signiÀcant social changes. This is a dangerous trend. Hindu Vaishnavism can no longer keep the Meitei society tied to the cultural apron of India. A titular Governor imprisoned in his castle has no means to suggest better economic and political situation, as most of them are former policemen rewarded for loyalty. It is not in the capability of a retired policeman to plan wholesome economic development. Can an economist of wider experience be posted in Manipur for preparing a new blueprint in collaboration with the Planning Commission? Wider vision and unorthodox forward approach can alone deliver goods in next 50 years. Can Congress Party restrain its politicians from bleeding the state by thieving and plundering? It is time to act. Fifteen year hence the situation may y degenerate g beyond political control. The writer served as a senior operative in the Intelligence Bureau. After retirement, he took to authoring books and freelance journalism and has contributed to English and Hindi newspapers and magazines.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east

SENTINEL

ARUNACHAL: A REALITY CHECK Jawaharlal Nehru’s remark about “not a blade of grass grows there” (in Aksai Chin) has been so twisted out of context that the other allegation against him that it was his “forward policy” that invited Chinese retaliation has been totally lost sight of. India was attacked before it was fully ready. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has taken the bull by the horns and is improving the infrastructure all along the Himalayas. A bloody nose in Tibet will negate all that the “string of pearls” was intended to achieve for the Chinese.

he west headed by USA is leading a front to mobilise support in containing China ideologically, economically and militarily. The question is should India join the chorus or take a middle path keeping in view its national interest?

China had done its homework well with India’s neighbours. We expect Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to look towards India at the time of peace and crisis but they prefer to rush towards China and get embraced eagerly.

After the containment and then collapse of the USSR the only formidable challenge left before USA is China.

First step, regional

Containing China The scale of China’s size in every Àeld makes it a different ball game and which leads a group of people in the west to advocate a policy of engagement with China and abjure containment. This effort is futile, as the rise of China as a superpower is inevitable and so we

believe of India as well. In 1803, Napoleon had said, “China is a sleeping giant. Let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world”. He said it at the peak of his glory and China at her lowest and which the Chinese term as two hundred bad years in their 5000 glorious years of civilisation.

Coalition of neighbours It is now the 21st century and Napoleon is no more while the Dragon is not sleeping either. China is establishing itself as a superpower. India shares around 4000 km border with China and yet India does not know how to deal with China. A glaring example was evident when all members of the SAARC, except Bhutan, pitched for observer status to China at the Dhaka SAARC summit and India had little choice but to accept it.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Pakistan treats India as equal and is determined to settle some political scores. Bhutan and Maldives are too happy playing no role. India aspires to become a global power but it needs to become a responsible and established regional power Àrst. The frantic reaction by Indian media to a recent anti-Indian article in an obscure Chinese website creating consternation in India is undesirable. Even our top

government functionaries have on many occasions made public statements about China’s threat and justify our nuclear programme and other hightech military equipment acquisition as a balance against China. We never hear such comments from Chinese ofÀcials. Nowadays, thousands of such amateur ultra-nationalistic comments and articles are available on the internet and we need to react carefully and behave like a responsible international player. The issue is not what we say and thus get a negative picture of our policy, but what we do silently for our national security.

Chinese geopolitics Exigent situation demands appropriate steps. Chinese leadership follows the ancient war strategist, Master Sun Tsu,

Kiren Rijiju

who in his “Art of War” said “Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat”. Although in China’s geopolitical screen, USA is the sole target and recognised rival, it considers India a potential stumbling block on its course to Ànally take the USA head on. Sun Tsu adds, “To Àght and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without Àghting”. One such Chinese tactics is the establishment of the string-of-pearls which it has already accomplished. Each ‘pearl’ serves Chinese military and economic interests. Hainan Island military facility has been upgraded recently, along with the Woody Island airstrip in Paracel archipelago. China has built a container shipping facility at Chittagong in Bangladesh besides assisting the military build-up of the Bangladesh Army. A deepwater port in Sittwe, in Myanmar, has been completed and China has also built deepwater port in Gwadar in Pakistan which will serve its interest in the

In 1803, Napoleon had said, “China is a sleeping giant. Let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world”. He said it at the peak of his glory and China at her lowest and which the Chinese term as two hundred bad years in their 5000 glorious years of civilisation

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east

SENTINEL the AssamArunachal boundary and which the British had built before independence. This massive rail and road infrastructure built by China along the Tibetan plateau has serious strategic implications for India in the context of the unresolved border row.

“FiveÀnger” analogy entire Straits of Hormuz. China has moved further south by developing the Hambantota Port thereby consolidating its presence in the Indian Ocean. And it also provided military help to Sri Lanka in its defeat of the LTTE.

Military capabilities China is the only country to have an Exclusive Economic Zone in Sri Lanka. It has created a maritime reconnaissance and electronic intelligence station in Coco Island, which is just 18 km north of the Andamans. And it additionally controls the Myanmar ports of Akyab, Cheduba and Bassein. The honest admission by our Naval Chief about the Chinese bluewater navy power and the Air force Chief’s statement that our strength is one third of the Chinese, is troubling. In the Himalayan frontier, the scene is more worrisome. Across the Line of Actual Control China has built remarkable world class infrastructural facilities while our soldiers and citizens in most of the border region and along the stretch of the McMahon Line face insurmountable challenges. China has railway links inside Tibet, near the border with India, using permafrost technology and displaying great marvels of engineering in running a railway at an astonishing height of 16,200 feet above sea level. In contrast, we could not extend a single km of rail route beyond Morkung Selek on

Arunachal Pradesh is ostensibly in deep trouble as sporadic Chinese incursions occur while the Government of India continues to say that the intrusions are due to differences in the perception of the McMahon Line. If Chinese Peoples Liberation Army were to come right into the heartland of Arunachal can we justify it since the Chinese perception is that whole of Arunachal is Chinese territory? We can’t accept the excuse given for India’s humiliating defeat in 1962 only on elements of “betrayal” and “surprise”. Mao Tsedong had earlier termed Tibet as the palm of a hand and Arunachal Pradesh (then NEFA), Ladakh, Sikkim, Nepal and Bhutan as Àve Àngers that were Chinese Territories and needed to be liberated. We are witnessing another Himalayan blunder as China assertively pushes its claims to Arunachal Pradesh while India simply rejects verbally and continues to ignore the existing ground reality and fails to act according to the changing scenario.

Strategic import The Prime Minister’s Ànancial grant for the development of roads in Arunachal Pradesh is a departure from the policy of the past and is a welcome step. The Government of India has moved from the obsolete policy of keeping Arunachal undeveloped (without roads near the McMahon line) as a means to stop a

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

quick Chinese advance in the event of a war! It still can’t completely eradicate the acute bottlenecks created due to neglect for too long. Only an extensive military transformation and massive road and communication network along with substantial infrastructure development in the forward areas of Arunachal and other sectors along the Indo-China border can balance the existing lopsided dimensions. We don’t want war but it’s no sin developing our own frontiers to secure ourselves. Thanks to the lacklustre attitude of the successive governments, and lack of general awareness, Arunachal Pradesh does not generate excitement to the whole country like Kashmir does. Apparently, it is emotionally too far from Delhi. Arunachal Pradesh, the largest state in the north-east, is Àve times the size of the Kashmir Valley and is also strategically located. It is a very rich state, with abundant natural resources that the nation needs. Patriotism is ingrained in the blood of every Arunachalee. It is a state where Jai Hind is the regular greeting for the local people. But majority of the countrymen are oblivious about its existence. Any of the assembly elections in Arunachal Pradesh go by without much notice in the national media. An Arunachalee can feel the pain if somebody asks about his passport in Delhi or fellow Indians want to know if he has come from China, Nepal or Thailand! Arunachal deeply loves Mother India but India is yet to bestow real affection and realise the importance of Arunachal. May be Arunachal Pradesh does not send enough Members of Parliament and does not contribute much revenue in the Government’s kitty like Maharashtra or Tamil Nadu. Let us not forget, we lost Aksai Chin because we believed that not a blade of grass grows there. The writer was a Member of Parliament (14th Lok Sabha) representing Arunachal Pradesh (West).

A DISTINGUISHED PEACEKEEPING EXPERT FROM THE NORTH-EAST We are happy to introduce to DSA readers Maj. Gen. Apurba Kumar Bardalai, a distinguished UN Peacekeeping expert hailing from the north-east (Assam). As peace in the north-east is a national priority we at DSA hope that Maj. Gen. Bardalai’s proÀle and achievements in peacekeeping around the world will inspire the people in the north-east to work for peace in the region. Maj. Gen. Bardalai was Military Observer in the United Nations VeriÀcation Mission in Angola and he has had Àrst hand experience of the violence during the internal conÁict in the country in 1991-92. He was Director UN Peacekeeping at the Army Headquarters, New Delhi. He was responsible for all facets of UN peacekeeping operations addressing over 100 OfÀcers and 6000 combat troops that included Military Observers, Staff OfÀcers and Troop Contingents deployed in various UN peacekeeping missions across the globe. From July 2003 to June 2005, Brigadier Bardalai was a Senior Research Fellow of UN Peacekeeping at the United Services Institution of India, New Delhi. His research work concluded in publication of a book titled “Changing Security Scenario: Implications for UN Peacekeeping”. He also authored an article entitled “Implications and Implementation of the Brahimi Report”, in ‘Emerging Challenges in UN Peacekeeping Operations: An IndoJapanese Dialogue’, edited by Major General Dipankar Banerjee and Ramesh Thakur. As an active peacekeeper, he has been part of a number of UN peacekeeping seminars, war game seminars, workshops and Àeld exercise with troops, as a panelist, guest speaker and participant both at national and international levels. Major General Bardalai has the unique distinction of holding the post of Deputy Force Commander and Deputy Head of Mission, UNIFIL from March 2008 to March 2010. Presently, he is the General OfÀcer Commanding of an infantry division.

north-east INTERVIEW: D G - ASSAM RIFLES north-east?

Team DSA greets

and

salutes

the

brave

ofÀcers

and

soldiers

5iÁes

Assam

DSA: Developing a rapport with the local population is critical for the success of CI operations. What activities does the Assam 5iÁes carry out in this regard?

successfully completing 175 years of sacriÀce

Team DSA is privileged to publish this exclusive interview with Lt. Gen. K. S. Yadava, PVSM, AVSM, SM, VSM, Director General of Assam 5iÁes, the premier security force in the north-east India, highlighting its history, role and achievements.

DSA: Sir, with 175 years of glorious history, Assam 5iÁes, ¶Sentinels of the north-east’, has seen many changes, and challenges. From its original composition, your Force has undergone a complete transformation. It looks different now from what it was in its early decades. How have the changes affected operational effectiveness? 'G Assam 5iÁes Assam RiÁes has completed 175 years of Yeomen service to the Nation. The oldest Paramilitary Force of the country has undergone sea change from its inception in 1835. Assam RiÁes has kept abreast with the latest changes in the security apparatus of the country and has modiÀed itself to meet the challenges and requirements of the time. These changes have grossly enhanced the operational efÀciency of the Force in terms of enhanced mobility for greater reach, better Àrepower with minimum collateral damage and improved communications to reduce the time required to launch operations and exercise effective small team operations. DSA: The achievements of the Assam 5iÁes are from across the combat spectrum. But what is at the core of the Force, in terms of its core capabilities?

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

'G Assam 5iÁes The core capability of the Force or specialisation of the Force lies in ‘Counter Insurgency Operations’ and border management in rugged jungle terrain. The core values are derived from Army Ethos of high standard of leadership and training and moral values. DSA: There have been numerous achievements in Counter Insurgency Operations in recent months. How has the ground situation changed? 'G Assam 5iÁes The ground situation has improved quite a lot. The situation in Assam has improved a lot. The peace talks with ULFA is already on the cards. The level of violence has drastically reduced in all the northeastern states. Tripura is almost back to normalcy. Mizoram as it is, is a peaceful state and a role model for development. In Nagaland, the level of violence and Inter-faction clashes has reduced but extortion remains a cause of concern. Even in Manipur the situation has improved and few militant outÀts who were active till a few months backs have given up violence and have come forward to accept the GoI offer for ‘peace talks’. Today, the common man on the street wants peace and development.

DG Assam 5iÁes Since time immemorial Assam RiÁes has got excellent rapport with the locals. It is because of this rapport that Assam RiÁes is popularly called ‘Friends of the Hill People.’ Assam RiÁes units have been carrying out extensive welfare activities in the form of Civic Action Projects which are aimed at providing employment opportunities, development of infrastructure and promote sports and culture in the region. DSA: Kindly brief us about the grassroot level support enjoyed by insurgents at present. And what, if at all, have been the changes in the support base of the militants during the last Àve years? Has it increased or decreased? DG Assam 5iÁes At grassroot level there are only few supporters to the insurgents’ cause, that too is not because of sharing similar ideology but because of money. Besides, other people who support are because of coercion / fear of militant groups. The change in support base has moved primarily from ‘Ideological’ reasons to ‘Economic’ reasons. People adopt this method to make fast bucks and have power in the eyes of locals. DSA: Are there any common tactical and strategic policies being employed by the insurgents across the

DG Assam 5iÁes The insurgents in north-east India are using petty tactics of ‘greed for money’ and ‘fear of gun’ to recruit cadres / coerce people to support them in terms of money or material. At strategic level they try and seek support from some foreign country who are willing to support them in terms of supply of arms and ammunition / money and also seek some political alliance to garner some validity for their entire outÀt.

was there, which has been resolved with the peace accord between DHD (J) and Government of India. Therefore, this year we will witness sharp decline in this data. DSA: The situation in Manipur is still far from normal. And the Assam 5iÁes has been in the thick of it. What is your assessment of the situation there? DG Assam 5iÁes Overall the situation in Manipur has improved a lot. Besides, the violence related to visit of Mr. Muivah to Manipur in May, the state has witnessed overall improvement. The state of bandhs and law and order condition has also improved. The peace talks with KCP(MC) has already commenced and UNLF has also suffered a setback with arrest of their deputy chairman.

DSA: Bangladesh has of late been helping India in its counterinsurgency operations. How has their support beneÀted your operational capabilities?

DSA: There were some reports suggesting a nexus between the Maoists and insurgents in the northeast. Do you have anything more on that?

DG Assam 5iÁes Bangladesh’s help by apprehension of important leaders in Indian insurgent groups will go a long way in weakening the ’terror infrastructure’ in the country besides forging a long term bond of friendship and trust between the two neighbouring countries. The crackdown by Bangladesh on Indian Insurgent groups’ camps in Bangladesh has forced them to vacate and shift their bases to other countries.

DG Assam 5iÁes Yes, there are a few reports that Maoists have developed nexus with a few insurgent groups of north-east. The nexus is totally issue related to supply of arms and ammunition and not based on some sharing of ‘ideological platform’. The origin of Maoists issue and insurgency in north-east is quite different.

DSA: Last year saw the total fatalities in the north-east decline by around 20 per cent. How do you analyse this decline? DG Assam 5iÁes The decline in total fatalities is contributed to the intensive aggressive posture and relentless operations carried out by the Security Force and intense pressure exerted on the Insurgent Groups. DSA: Assam continues to account for almost 50 per cent of fatalities despite the successes against the various groups active in the state. Why? DG Assam 5iÁes The main reason for this account is that Assam is the largest state in the north-east. Moreover last year, the problem of North Cachar Hills

DSA: Finally, please tell us how optimistic you are about permanent peace in the north-eastern region? DG Assam 5iÁes I am very optimistic that a permanent peace will come to north-east India, but it will take its time. The people of the region are already fed up with violence. The youth are interested in jobs, development and they would like to see their region developing and keeping pace with the mainstream India. The Government of India has already initiated a numbers of measures to start the peace process. We have seen peace coming to North Cachar Hills, KNLKF has already surrendered and talks with KCP(MC) have already commenced. So, Ànally I feel the will of the people for peace will prevail.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east DECLINING MORES

freedom fighters, insurgents, terrorists…?

There is a nursery rhyme ‘tinker, tailor, soldier, sailor, richman, poorman, ploughboy, THIEF!’ It is a descriptive of a decline from the sublime to the criminal. It is not just a decline of civil society mores and norms but also of governance. The acts of criminals is an indicator of the degree of absence of governance. Where governance works, criminality declines and vice versa is even more true!

Patricia Mukhim

outlaw

the jinx! D

eÀnitions are important because they bring clarity to an issue. An insurgent is deÀned as a person who takes part in an armed rebellion against the constituted authority or government, especially in the hope of improving conditions. A terrorist on the other hand is seen as an alien force implanted in a particular country, to bleed that country. The above are deÀnitions one was able to extract from an ofÀcial of the Home Ministry at a conference held in Shillong last year. In the north-east we have one more category of armed militants who call themselves National Workers and who demand to secede from the Indian Union.

Workers or leeches? They include the NSCN (Isak-Muivah), NSCN (Khaplang) NNC, ULFA, NDFB, PLA, RPF, PREPAK etc. These outÀts run their own governments through taxes collected from the people. Even extortion falls in the category of taxes and none of the groups are apologetic about this. Despite claims of having signed a

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east DECLINING MORES temporary truce with the Government of India, the groups continue to shoot, kill and extort. And the Government of India could not care less! Is it because the last category are difÀcult to put into a framework? But that is precisely where the problem lies! In the course of their operations all of the above groups have bled the northeastern states by killing with impunity the security forces and non-combatants. They have retarded the economies of the region and set back the clock of progress. And not one of them is repentant of their crimes. It is therefore galling in the extreme that people responsible for large scale bloodshed are, after a time, treated like heroes. In Assam the surrendered / arrested ULFA leaders were given

a hero’s welcome complete with the gamosha and garland. Recently the NSCN(IM) Secretary General Th. Muivah was treated like a visiting prime minister of a foreign country by the centre. The Manipur Government, which for historical reasons, has jurisdiction over Somdal, the birthplace of Muivah in Ukhrul district was told by the Union Government to gear up the security apparatus and to ensure Muivah’s safe passage.

Acquiescing to terrorists Considering that the Naga-inhabited areas of Manipur are not under ceaseÀre with the Government of India, intellectuals argue that Muivah is by all deÀnitions a renegade in any other state

except Nagaland where the ceaseÀre has been operational since 1997. They remind of the Naga assault on Kukis and other fringe tribes in the 1990s which resulted in hundreds of deaths, including that of innocent children. Nagas wanted to clear out Kukis from parts of Senapati district so that they could have a homogenous homeland. Unfortunately for the Nagas, the Kukis are no walkover and put up a brave Àght until things were brought under control. The largely undeÀned space within which all ruthless underground leaders, now turned overground peace activists, operate is problematic. What is causing the problem is none other than the Union Home Ministry which behaves like a grand old patriarch imposing

that Daimary should be given the most stringent punishment for the heinous crime he is said to have masterminded. So much so, this threatens to yet again accentuate the tribal, non-tribal divide. It brings to the fore yet again the age-old prejudices that the caste and non-caste Asomiyas have had vis-a-vis the tribes. Although this is hidden under the thin veneer of ‘Assamese’ inclusivity, the fact is that Asomiyas are intrinsically exclusive and not accommodative of tribal aspirations or that of other nonAsomiya communities. Look at the composition of the present civil society initiative of Asomiya intellectuals headed by Mr. Hiren Gohain to broker talks between ULFA and the Government of India. The group comprises only one Bodo intellectual / writer and one Muslim representative. There are no representatives from amongst the Bengali speaking community which constitutes nearly 20 per cent of the population of Assam nor the other 20 per cent which makes up the ‘tea tribes’ (I use this nomenclature for want of a better name). What about the other tribes such as the Karbis, Dimasas, Mishings, etc. Do they not

its views on the states and then leaves them to pick up the bloody pieces, in this case the dead bodies, when a fallout such as the one at Mao Gate happens. It is amazing that the centre should use such adhoc ploys for short-term gains in the manner that a malevolent interloper would do, without bothering about the consequences.

have a say in the future of Assam? Just because the ULFA comprises only the ‘Asomiyas’ (those whose mother tongue is Assamese, besides the other exclusive traits) does this mean that groups negotiating peace should also be largely Asomiyas?

Asomiya exclusivity

They say history is a great teacher and those who refuse to derive lessons from it are condemned to suffer the fallout. The Bodos were very much part of the Assam Movement but when the Assam Accord was signed they were nowhere in the picture. Three blue-blooded Asomiyas penned their signatures on the Accord. Was this not the reason why

Let us now turn to Assam where very recently another hard core insurgent accused of the October 30, 2008 bomb blasts, Ranjan Daimary was also handed over by the Bangladesh authorities to their Indian counterparts. There is a plea from several quarters

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Relearn history

in 1989 a section of Bodos launched a full-scale rebellion against Assamese chauvinism where nearly 600 people lost their lives? These are the setbacks of exclusionary practices. How can 10 per cent of the population of the state be taking upon themselves the task of speaking for the 90 per cent and still believe they are the ‘peoples’ voices?’

Ethnic cleansing While the Asomiyas seem to have forgiven and forgotten the Dhemaji blasts of August 2004 perpetrated by the ULFA, they also, ironically seem to have erased from their memories the series of killings between January and February 2007 where 87 migrant labourers were annihilated. It was a cold-blooded ethnic cleansing which many believed is meant to create a vacuum in the labour market so that people from across the border could Àll it. What is gruesome is that human lives can also be graded in terms of their ethnicity. If they are not Asomiyas they are dispensable. Is that it? And, funnily, a very enlightened civil society group also revels in this belief!

Reports that no lawyers are ready to represent Ranjan Daimary in court because the October 30 blast he instigated had happened near the Court of the Chief Judicial Magistrate where some lawyers had died, smacks of vengeance. If this is how lawyers are going to argue then justice in this country will remain a far cry. Daimary appears to have already been condemned for his crime even while the top ULFA activists are represented by the best criminal lawyers. Again, is this because Dhemaji is so far from Dispur and those children who were killed at the time belong to a less privileged category? Hence even the discourse on death has different layers.

Criminals all This double-speak on ‘terrorism’ is unwarranted. Yet it also exposes the deep divide in Assam’s multi-cultural, multi-ethnic and multi-religious society. That terrorism should be viewed through these dividing prisms is so wrong. A terrorist is a terrorist and his case has to be measured against the heinous crimes he has committed. Arguments that Arabinda Rajkhowa and Shasha Chaudhury are treated with kid gloves mainly to lure Paresh Barua to the talks table do not go down too well. Paresh Barua can be dealt with when the time comes. In the intervening period members of the ULFA who are in custody must be given the treatment they deserve.

Let law prevail Now that Ranjan Daimary has also expressed a desire to talk peace and tone down his demands, the government should simultaneously work at a peace formula even while Daimary goes through the due processes of law. It would be wrong

to treat Daimary differently on the basis of the October 30 blasts and the rationale that he is not repentant about it. The Bodo Sahitya Sabha, the ABSU and other Bodo civil society groups have rightly aired their discontent over the manner in which Daimary is now being labelled (Ajmal Kasab of Assam, blood-thirsty hound, etc.) labels now pinned on the Bodo renegade. In fact the very idea of terming ‘some’ insurgents more brutal than others, of undermining their commitment to their own causes, or even of grading their crimes into comparatives already exposes a partisanship that is best avoided. No wonder the Bodos are even more convinced today that they will not get justice from Assam. The

recent posturings of Asomiya civil society only reinforces their doubts and substantiates their claim for a separate Bodo State!

Muivah’s ploy To compound the multiple complexities in the region, the centre has often arbitrarily taken matters into its hands and brushed aside the concerns of the states and undermined their autonomy. In the current dialogue with the NSCN (I-M), the constitutionally elected state government of Nagaland has been left out of the discourse. Surely the government of Nagaland would have some say in the future political arrangements of that state. But to forestall any interference by the government of Nagaland, Mr. Muivah the NSCN (I-M) supremo ensured that a political conglomerate favourable to his megalomaniac tendencies was Àrmly installed in Nagaland. In this murky scenario, to talk of peace and its dividends is rather premature. It will be a long time before the million mutinies, some raging others in ferment are resolved and one wonders

if the centre is even serious in its intent of installing regimes of peace in the north-east or if it simply playing out its dangerously divisive games. The writer is an educationist, activist and journalist. She is currently editor of The Shillong Times, Meghalaya’s oldest English language daily and a columnist for The Telegraph and The Statesman. She is also the Director, Indigenous Women’s Resource Centre, North-East India. For her consistent campaign against corruption and the diminishing returns of militancy and its spin-offs such as extortion and violence through her forthright columns, Mukhim was awarded the Padmashree by the President of India in the year 2000. Earlier, in 1996, she received the Chameli Devi Jain Award for outstanding woman media person from the Media Foundation, New Delhi

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east POLY-ETHNIC CONUNDRUM

Sovereignty is an appealing prospect in the midst of a mass upsurge or a safe haven to operate from. Both are currently absent in the Asom context. New bargaining ploys are being fashioned and the possibilities and ambience of negotiations being explored. The United Liberation Front of Asom is in considerable disarray with the arrest of its top leadership in Bangladesh and the loss of that particular safe haven. The Government of India seems to think that to let a “hundred Áowers bloom” policy could create the garden of Eden. Can there be peace without sovereignty? Depends on the level of battle fatigue that circumstances have induced.

ULFA:

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

ver since the United Liberation Front of Asom-appointed People’s Consultative Group failed to broker a peace between the militant organisation and the Government of India and withdrew from the process in September 2006 when the security forces resumed their operations against the ULFA after a brief suspension, the feeling has been growing in Assam’s civil society that some new initiative must be taken to bring back the peace process on track.

Groundwork This feeling was strengthened when in November-December last year as many as four members of the ULFA’s central committee including the chairman were imprisoned and New Delhi stated that it was expecting talks to begin. More recently, two senior leaders, Pradip Gogoi and Mithinga Daimary, were released on bail and they met some leading citizens and reportedly urged them to initiate a fresh move for peace.

However, it is not known if these two leaders were speaking in their individual capacity or had an informal mandate from their colleagues in jail. Nor is it known if they discussed with the select intellectuals anything about ULFA’s conditions for the talks. Nevertheless, the Citizen’s Forum of Guwahati took the initiative and organised a oneday Sanmilata Jatiya Abhibartan (United National Convention) on the 24th of April ostensibly to ascertain

joining the

Udayon Misra

mainstream? June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east POLY-ETHNIC CONUNDRUM Convention were not happy over this silence. But it is unclear as to how such a conclusion could be arrived at that the “people of Assam” favoured a discussion on the issue of sovereignty especially when civil society in Assam is deeply divided over this question. Perhaps this conclusion was based primarily on the reactions of the pro-ULFA sections of the audience which made up the Convention. While it is true that despite its shrinking support base, there is still quite a considerable degree of support among certain sections of the people for the struggle initiated by the ULFA and for the idea of a Swadhin Asom, yet it would be unrealistic to suggest that the people of Assam as a whole are in favour of a discussion on the issue of sovereignty as raised by the ULFA.

Dr. Gohain stated that “we have drawn the attention of the GOI to the widespread sentiment of the people of Assam that the issue of sovereignty could be discussed at the negotiating table”. At the same time he clari¿ed that it did not mean that the issue of sovereignty must form part of the agenda of talks but there should be no bar to discussing it. He added that personally he was not in favour of sovereignty for the state the views of a large cross-section of organisations and individuals of the state on the possibility of initiating a dialogue between the ULFA and the government.

Mixed result Although there were some notable absentees from the Maran, Matak, Tai-Ahom and Sonowal Kachari organisations, as well as some former PCG members, yet it must be said that the Convention was quite broadbased and represented almost all the major political parties (minus the Congress) and a substantially large number of civil society groups of the state. That the convention tried to steer clear from any particular ideological slant was evident in the composition of its presidium which was made up of individuals representing left, right and centrist positions and also included some who couldn’t be identiÀed with any particular political position but were there as concerned citizens. The mood of the deliberations, which was marked by strong sympathy for the ULFA and its position vis-jvis the Indian State, was set right in the beginning by several speakers which included leading academicians, journalists and political leaders, all of whom declared that there shouldn’t be any objections on the part of the centre to include the issue of sovereignty in the agenda for talks. The few speakers who spoke critically about the ULFA and its agenda of Swadhin Asom met with

strong protests from a large section of the audience. Such was the allegiance to ULFA that a particular functionary belonging to the Asom Sahitya Sabha was almost shouted down when he referred to it as an “extremist” outÀt.

“Sovereignty” missing But, what was rather surprising was, that at the end of the day, in the draft resolutions that were read out by the chairman of the Presidium, Dr. Hiren Gohain, the issue of sovereignty did not Ànd any mention at all, much to the chagrin and disappointment of a large section of the participants. There was also no reference at all in any of the resolutions to the ULFA C-in-C, Paresh Baruah and his position regarding the peace process. Baruah had, on the eve of the convention, expressed his reservations about a peace process which did not address the issue of sovereignty. The draft resolutions called for unconditional talks at the highest level between the ULFA and the government and the immediate release of the jailed leaders and suspension of all legal proceedings against them till a solution of the issue was arrived at. The Convention also called upon the ULFA to take advantage of any such release to convene a meeting of its Central Committee to consider the suggestions made at the Convention. It also stated that once the talks begin, the government should cease to treat the ULFA as an insurgent group and

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Poly-ethnic

A nine member steering committee made up of the members who formed the presidium of the Convention, was declared as the main decision-making body and was given the responsibility of giving Ànal shape to the resolutions based on the feedback received from the audience. Accordingly, on the 4th of May, Dr. Hiren Gohain, on behalf of the Steering Committee, placed the Ànal resolutions before the public through a press meet. While there wasn’t much change in the earlier draft resolutions, the issue of sovereignty Àgured prominently when Dr. Gohain stated that “we have drawn the attention of the GOI to the widespread sentiment of the people of Assam that the issue of sovereignty could be discussed at the negotiating table”. At the same time he clariÀed that it did not mean that the issue of sovereignty must form part of the agenda of talks but there should be no bar to discussing it. He added that personally he was not in favour of sovereignty for the state.

Without going into the debate further, sufÀce it to say that the very demographic composition and polyglot and poly-ethnic nature of the state does not permit such a conclusion, especially when several leading ethnic groups have been expressing their reservations about the ULFA’s agenda. As for the ULFA itself, except for doggedly holding on to the issue of sovereignty, it has never tried to work out its agenda for independence and what that would actually mean for the various small nationalities which make up the people of Assam. Moreover, in its thirty year existence, it has never tried to develop any mechanism to test the people’s will, although time and again it has made ritualistic noises about a referendum. Nonetheless, New Delhi would do well to keep in mind at this juncture that ULFA’s dogged insistence on sovereignty notwithstanding, the issues raised by the outÀt regarding the re-structuring of federal powers and the rights of states to their resources still have their relevance and are supported by a wide range of organisations such as the All Assam Students Union, the Asom Gana Parishad and the Jatiyatabadi Yuva Chatra Parishad from whose ranks initially most of the ULFA cadres were drawn.>1@

Divide exists

Suspension of operations

While the issue of sovereignty did not Ànd place in any of the resolutions of the April 24 National Convention, it was being raised at the press conference obviously because certain groups taking part in the

The Steering Committee set up by the National Convention called for the unconditional release of the ULFA leaders and a suspension of the legal processes initiated against them till

the latter should give up its armed movement if they get a positive hint from the government.

Steering committee

the talks take place. However, it is not certain as to whether such a step will automatically help the peace process, especially when there has been no indication from the jailed leadership (not to speak of the rest who are engaged in an armed struggle with the Indian State) that it is prepared to call for even a temporary suspension of the armed struggle. While agreeing with the good intentions of the Steering Committee of the Convention and its argument that there cannot be negotiations while the leaders (who are Central Committee members of the ULFA) are in jail, yet to suggest such a unilateral step from the government has perhaps been somewhat unrealistic about the ground situation. For any meaningful peace negotiations to begin, both sides must initially agree to suspension of operations or a ceaseÀre. What if the talks fail to take off even after the release of the leaders? Would the earlier history of failed attempts at a dialogue be repeated?

Unrealistic expectations Equally unrealistic has been the suggestion that if the ULFA Central Committee so desires, talks could be initiated without its C-in-C Paresh Baruah. Such a position is based on the assumption that there has been a division in the ULFA leadership and that Paresh Baruah is increasingly being marginalised. If the reactions of the jailed ULFA leadership are any indication, then there is nothing to prove right now that there is a split in the organisation. Neither Arabinda Rajkhowa nor any other jailed leader has said till date that they are prepared to compromise on the question of a Swadhin Asom. Even the pro-talks faction which had earlier insisted on talks minus the issue of sovereignty, seem to be quite silent now. On the contrary, several of the senior leaders like Bhimkanta Buragohain have backed Paresh Baruah’s stand that the ULFA would never compromise on the question of sovereignty because that has been its core issue.

Recalcitrant military wing All said and done, talks minus Paresh Baruah, even if held, are bound to prove infructuous. This is especially true given the militaristic structure of the organisation where its Central Committee has not met for years,

with the military wing calling the shots.>2@ The ULFA leadership knows only too well that if it gives up this core issue or even tries to re-deÀne it as suggested by some intellectuals, then the organisation would be left without a cause. As it is, the organisational strength of the ULFA is decidedly on the wane, its support base has been shrinking fast and further Àssures within the outÀt are bound to surface. This partly explains Paresh Baruah’s rather desperate uncompromising stance which he feels would help to keep his Áock together. Moreover, the ULFA leadership may be thinking that giving up the sovereignty issue would deprive it of a major bargaining point in case negotiations ultimately begin just as the NSCN has been doing in its talks with the Government of India. But the political situation in the country as well as its equations with neighbouring countries like Bangladesh, Myanmar and even China have changed quite a lot since the Naga peace talks began more than a decade ago.

Naga model? The question of self-determination too has undergone major re-deÀnition in international parlance. Therefore, it wouldn’t always help to draw parallels with the Naga peace process. The odds are right now clearly in favour of New Delhi and this explains its insistence on talks minus sovereignty and within the constitutional framework. Given such a situation, the possibility of peace talks between the two sides seems to have become increasingly remote and it appears that one more well-intentioned quest for peace by Assam’s civil society has been aborted - at least for the time being. Notes: >1@ For details see The Periphery Strikes Back: Challenges to the NationState in Assam and Nagaland, IIAS, Shimla, 2000. >2@ Misra, “Ulfa: Beginning of the End”, Economic and Political Weekly, December 26, 2009, Vol ;LIV No 52. The writer is a former Professor of English. He is an author and social analyst. He has been a Fellow at the Indian Institute of Advanced Study, Shimla and his publications include, among others, The Raj in Fiction and The Periphery Strikes Back: Challenges to the Nation State in Assam and Nagaland, Currently, he is a National Fellow of the ICSSR.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east ESTRANGEMENT

Ethnic Schism:

Intrinsic Trepidity

Given the multiplicity of ethnic / tribal / hillmen inÁuences that pervade the north-eastern region of India there is need for great circumspection and sensitivity in dealing with issues of statehood. The incident of May is not the Àrst instance of a disjoint between the centre and the state. Blockade as a tool of submission / compliance will only exacerbate the problem.

he incident in which two young men died and dozens of others were injured in shooting by police commandos and Manipur RiÁes personnel in clashes at Mao Gate on May 6 is yet another reminder of how deeply divided Manipur is along ethnic lines. According to reports, the unarmed demonstrators were trying to break the security cordon set up there by the Okram Ibobi government to prevent entry of Thuingaleng Muivah, the general secretary of the NSCN(IM) into Manipur territory.

Innate fears The NSCN(IM) leader was proceeding towards his ancestral home in Somdal village in the Ukhrul district with the permission of the Ministry of Home Affairs, but unfortunately without consultation with the state government. Muivah was also to address two public rallies in Ukhrul and Senapati and the state government believes the visit was aimed at furthering a political campaign to dismember Manipur in pursuit of Greater Nagaland and decided not to allow it saying it would have tremendous potential for civic unrest. After more than a decade of relative peace, it is unfortunate that these hills should be woken up so rudely and given a taste of what violence the modern Manipur state is capable of. The tragedy cannot be reversed and the effort now must be to prevent further tragedies. A way must be found to settle the dangerous standoff. It will be in nobody’s interest or beneÀt to have any of the parties in the standoff humiliated. But for this to work, all involved parties must be ready to climb down a little. The political differences that brought matters to this unfortunate climactic moment cannot be erased overnight but still it would be unwise to wait for a reform of political outlook Àrst before the immediate issue at hand is given a chance to be resolved. This would be asking merely for a deferment of the problem and not initiating a solution for it.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Pradip Phanjoubam

Manipur ignored There is no mistaking whatsoever that in the initial plan for Th. Muivah’s proposed visit, the Manipur government was treated as a dispensable non-entity and its consent was not even sought. Any self-respecting government would have felt insulted and the general feeling was this insult was intended. Much has been written about this and there will be no point in repeating. The important thing is to look for a rectiÀcation and reparation for what has happened. Two or three things can be the starting point. First and foremost, all parties must tone down if not abandon their arrogant stances. The NSCN(IM) general secretary could for instance send a formal request letter to the Manipur chief minister of his intention to visit home and that he be provided with security during his stay, making it ofÀcial his is a peace mission and nothing more.

Healing touches The Nagaland chief minister and his Manipur counterpart could communicate with each other directly or through emissaries on the matter instead of resorting to relaying their messages through the Union government or through the media. The Union government can then act as the peace brokers by ensuring Àrst such a truce is established and then that it is honoured. Although there are many vocal resistances amongst the Meiteis and Kukis in the state in the continued belief that the NSCN(IM) leader is bent on destroying Manipur, saner voices that Muivah should be and indeed would be given a grand reception if he was open to the idea of a common destiny of the region, is not altogether unheard.

Nocent propaganda But the tragic episode also had some distasteful sidelights. These are worth noting for the interesting insight they provide to at least one aspect of the conÁict. Unfortunate as the developments in this once sleepy highway town of Mao Gate are, there are certain

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east ESTRANGEMENT

True, as of today, it does seem Meiteis hold the idea of Manipur closer to heart than most other communities. As to why this has come to be so is another story, needing a different treatment, but given this reality the fact remains that the Meiteis would be the ones to most strongly resist what the liberal pretenders want Manipur to do voluntarily disintegrate misconceptions which are either deliberately or else out of ignorance being spread. The Àrst and foremost of these is the state security personnel belonging to the India Reserve Battalion, Manipur RiÁes and Police commandos, now deployed at Mao Gate and other places are without any thought being presumed to be not forces of the Manipur state but of the majority Meitei community. When this fallacy is being propagated by those within the state or else those who have an intimate knowledge of the secular legal sinews that make the state, it is nothing short of nocent propaganda. On the other hand, when this same presumption is being made by liberal pretenders from outside the state, they must remind themselves that they are putting themselves in the position of judging books by their covers only. It is common knowledge however, that many from this class are empty shells given to jump to any opportunity to make empty rhetoric in order to appear generous in political outlook.

Mixed composition The fact is, although obviously these forces would have a majority of Meiteis at the soldier’s level, they are not exclusively Meiteis. These are state government forces and as per the 33 per cent reservation policy followed in the government (roughly corresponding to the demographic constitution of the

north-east DEADLY DEADLOCK ADLOCK

Subir Bhaumik

state), each of these units would have at least 33 per cent tribals. The remaining would be shared between various nontribal groups, including Nepalis, but the lion’s share would of course go to the Meiteis as they form the demographic majority in the state. In the ofÀcers class the picture would be somewhat the reverse as very few Meiteis make it to the IPS because they have to compete in the open category in the all India civil services examinations. These forces no doubt lack discipline, and especially those raised for counter insurgency purposes like the commandos, are known killers, but they are organised on professional lines and not ethnic. Which is why, they follow orders from any commanding ofÀcer regardless of community afÀliation.

Brutal trademark As their records would have demonstrated to all honest observers already, the Manipur police commandos also do not discriminate in the dispensation of their brutality and savagery. The fake encounter case exposed by Tehelka Magazine a few months ago (which was just one in hundreds each year), is just a very prominent example. Good or bad, they also Àght insurgents, Meitei or otherwise, as if they were sworn enemies, and this attribute no other police force in the north-east or even the entire country, including once insurgency-ravaged Nagaland can claim. There is nothing to be proud of in all these, but the chagrin of the ordinary Meitei overÁows when ignorant liberal pretenders and passionate

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

campaigners who suffer from acute communal myopia try to portray the present clashes as an outcome of Meitei aggression.

Manipuri sentiment True, as of today, it does seem Meiteis hold the idea of Manipur closer to heart than most other communities so that the social contract bondages between individual and state are strongest in them. This being the case, it is more likely they would stand by actions of government or any other agency which seem to represent the interest of Manipur. As to why this has come to be so is another story, needing a different treatment, but given this reality the fact remains that the Meiteis would be the ones to most strongly resist what the liberal pretenders want Manipur to do - voluntarily disintegrate. These liberals are also pushing the defenders of the idea of Manipur into a corner where the latter are left with just two options – do what Gorbachev did to the former USSR or else take recourse to the way of Israel in order to survive in a malevolent environment bent on destroying it. Increasingly, the latter is beginning to be favoured, portending unleash of a never ending cycle of maddening conÁict in the region. If this happens, part of the thanks must go to these ignorant liberals. The writer is editor, Imphal Free Press, English daily published from Imphal. He has written extensively on issues related to north-east, conÁict and development.

Nagaland

quagmire Naga interlocutors no longer insist on a Greater Nagalim that includes parts of Myanmar. Trying to appropriate parts of Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam may help to keep the government of India off-balance but it will not bring sovereignty nor territory beyond the conÀnes of present-day Nagaland. That T. Muivah failed to keep his tryst with his ancestral village in Manipur by ofÀcial state diktat and public outrage underscores how intractable the issue is even if the Nagas are eager to coalesce into a Greater Nagalim. June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

north-east DEADLY DEADLOCK

espite optimistic statements by Indian ministers and bureaucrats that the Naga peace process is well on track, very few would be actually expecting an early resolution of the six decade old problem. The appointment of a new interlocutor for the Naga talks – former Nagaland chief secretary R. S. Pandey – has been welcome. Mr. Pandey also insists that “crucial issues” have been taken up during recent DelhiNSCN discussions. But as one looks back on the nearly thirteen years of negotiations, the problem remains stuck on the crucial issue of territory. The Isak-Muivah faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN), which is negotiating with the Indian government since 1997, is determined to achieve “Greater Nagalim” by merger of the Naga-inhabited areas of Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam with the present Indian state of Nagaland. It may give up on its long cherised dream of Naga sovereignity – but someone like Muivah, who hails from Manipur’s Ukhrul district, is not expected to budge on the territorial question. Without his own district and other Naga areas of Manipur in a future “Nagalim”, Muivah’s own position in future Naga politics is suspect.

Shrinking ambience Territory in Naga politics, though, is no holy cow. Until the 1970s, a vision of a Greater Nagalim would include the Burmese Naga areas that were

euphemistically called “ Eastern Nagaland”. The Burmese Nagas were part and parcel of the struggle for independence. They provided shelter and food to Naga guerrillas, either on their way to China for training or later when they set up permanent bases in Sagaing Division. But after the violent split in the NSCN in 1988, the likes of Muivah never talk of “Eastern Nagaland” while projecting their vision of Greater Nagalim. Because “Eastern Nagaland” would mean Muivah’s arch rival S. S. Khaplang would come into the picture as he hails from the Hemi Naga tribe across the border. So, Muivah only insists on integration of Naga areas of north-east India, not of Burma anymore.

Once burnt, twice shy But after the violence in Manipur over the extension of the Naga ceaseÀre to other parts of north-east India, Delhi knows that any attempt to create a “Greater Nagalim” will unleash uncontrollable turmoil in the whole region, specially in Manipur. Actually, any attempt to accommodate Muivah’s demand for Greater Nagalim will entail a fresh reorganisation of India’s north-east – a project too dangerous to undertake and likely to create more problems than it would solve. Apart from the immediate violent resistance in the neighbouring states of Nagaland, the creation of a “Greater Nagalim” will fuel the aspirations of a dozen or more battling ethnicities in the north-east, all seeking

Jamir’s argument that a comprehensive Naga settlement should involve all Naga rebel factions and indeed the emerging – and increasingly vocal – Naga civil society strikes a chord with most Nagas. Muivah has done well to initiate moves to control inter-faction rivalries that were undermining the credibility of the NSCN as the sole representative of the Naga people

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

exclusive tribal homelands on their own terms. If a greater Nagalim is created, there will be no way to keep the Bodos – and many other ethnicities – demanding separate states at bay. That is a risk Delhi under any dispensation – UPA or NDA or even the left-of-centre United Front – will be clearly unwilling to take.

New dynamic? Though Muivah is also insisting that the NSCN has not given up the demand for Naga sovereignity, there are clear indications he would be more than willing to give it up, if the territorial question is resolved to the satisfaction of the rebel leadership. The NSCN has indicated that it is prepared to accept a “special federal relationship” with India – an arrangement that will involve considerable changes to the Indian Constitution and will give Nagaland “very substantial powers” in every sphere except on key federal subjects like defence and foreign affairs. The broad contours of the “special federal relationship” have been worked out through painstaking backroom negotiations – but they need to be Àrmed up through a few Ànal rounds of dialogue. In a way, the real fruit of the last thirteen years of tortuous negotiations involving Indian ofÀcials and NSCN leaders is the evolving of this “special federal relationship”. This is a constitutional package that can not only solve the Naga problem but also of the whole of north-

east because it will make the relationship of a “troubled periphery” like north-east to the Indian power centre Àrmly based on authentic federal principles. That is however not going to be possible unless both sides can broadly agree on the territorial aspect of the settlement. Muivah and his close followers in the NSCN may also give up their claims on areas of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh – as indeed they no longer talk of “Eastern Nagaland”. But how can Muivah, and his close Tangkhul lieutenants, accept a Nagalim without Ukhrul or Chandel, Tamenlong or Senapati, in it? Garribaldi could never get over the loss of his native Nice to France as price for French support to the cause of Italian uniÀcation. Napolean would never let his native Corsica go out of France. Subhas Bose, if he had remained at the helm of Indian politics in 1947, would have perhaps never accepted the partition of Bengal as the price for Indian independence. So why blame Muivah for feeling so strongly about incorporation of the Naga areas of Manipur and other north-east Indian states in a future Nagalim!

parties and symbols of the Manipuri political establishment. But as the Naga agitation intensiÀes, both sides may be preparing for a last battle, one that is fraught with dangerous consequences.

Muivah’s compulsion Muivah is also desperate to get the Nagas “something more” than they have already got out of India. He has to. That, apart from his personal emotions, explains why he is so desperate to get a “Greater Nagalim”. Even if Muivah gets more autonomy for the Nagas, his rivals in Naga politics, in the overground and underground, will turn round to accuse him of failing to get the Nagas a substantial package. Unless Muivah gets the Nagas something more than a separate state they got in the 1960s – with Article 371 – it will not justify the extended years of Naga rebellion that’s solely the doing of Muivah and his close lieutenants. Those who have been branded as “traitors” by Muivah for accepting the 1975 Shillong Accord

For a change, Delhi does understand Muivah’s compulsions. Muivah too understands Delhi’s problems. But neither side can budge beyond a point. Delhi cannot accept Naga sovereignity or an expanded “Nagalim”. Muivah cannot accept a Naga settlement without a “greater Nagalim.” The NSCN’s de facto inÁuence in Nagaland – and in Naga areas of Manipur – is for all to see. Nagaland’s regional party led coalition stays in power with NSCN support – most Naga politicians in Manipur (and in at least two districts of Arunachal Pradesh) get elected only after they receive the blessings of the NSCN. The NSCN does not lose much in real terms if a settlement is delayed. They lose if the talks breakdown and Àghting starts again. Because the Naga, who is suffering from conÁict fatigue, wants no resumption of violence. The NSCN’s only real option is to keep talking. Talking to Delhi, talking to other Naga groups, to all rebel factions. That is key to evolve a “united Naga voice” that Delhi insists on, almost as a pre-condition to resolve the Naga problem. But given their “unique history”, in which tribal and factional rivalries are often co-terminus, evolving a “united Naga voice” may not be easy.

will then come out to settle scores with the China-trained Tangkhul rebel.

The writer is BBC’s East India Correspondent. He is a former Queen Elizabeth Fellow of Oxford University (1989-90), during which he completed his Àrst book “Insurgent CrossÀre”, a deÀnitive investigation of the proxy wars of the region. He has presented more than 30 papers at national and international seminars on security, ethnicity, migration and low-intensity conÁicts and atleast twenty articles of his on Northeast India, Burma, Bangladesh and the Himalayan nations. His second book “ Troubled Periphery: Crisis of India’s Northeast” has been published in 2009.

Blockade weapon So, Muivah and his lieutenants have already got their surrogate groups to intensify the campaign in the Naga areas of Manipur that includes the blockades of the national highways that connect Manipur to the rest of the country. The blockades hit Manipur very hard and drive up prices of essential commodities brought into the state from other parts of the country and that further alienates the majority Meiteis from the Nagas. If this agitation further intensiÀes, it will only set the stage for a possibly dangerous ethnic conÁagration involving Nagas and Meiteis. Manipur has seen very bloody ethnic confrontation between Nagas and Kukis, but never one between Nagas and Meiteis. Even at the peak of the movement to thwart the Naga ceaseÀre, Meitei groups scrupulously avoided attacking Naga settlements. They only attacked ofÀces of political

– and increasingly vocal – Naga civil society strikes a chord with most Nagas. Muivah has done well to initiate moves to control inter-faction rivalries that were undermining the credibility of the NSCN as the sole representative of the Naga people. But its prima donna status will continue to be challenged.

One voice Add to that the reluctance of many Naga politicians like former chief minister S. C. Jamir (the last of the Mohicans from the 1960 agreement) to have a settlement in Nagaland only on the basis of an accord with the NSCN’s Muivah faction and you are no closer to a settlement than you were in 1997 – or in 1964. Jamir’s argument that a comprehensive Naga settlement should involve all Naga rebel factions and indeed the emerging

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

nukes REVIEW CONFERENCE Every one of the steps taken by the Obama administration thus far are elements of a larger facade to remove states that sponsor terror from the ambience of NPT sanctions. Prominent among these is Pakistan which has the dubious distinction of being both the fountainhead of global terrorism and one with its military totally riddled with jihadis in uniform. In all respects the NPT remains fatally Áawed for being inequitable. As far as India is concerned it is China that has been supplying pre-tested, ready-to-use nuclear weapons to states that also have extra-territorial agendas for which they use proxies.

NPT:

Harsh V. Pant

A paper tiger?

month-long charade commenced in May at the United Nations where the eighth quinquennial review conference of the 42-year old Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty (NPT) was being held. Every nation, large and small, declared how important the treaty was for the world and global security. And then proceeded to make a case that there was actually very little it would be able to do in the absence of meaningful steps from others. Though the President-elect of the Review Conference, Ambassador Libran Cabactulan of the Philippines, had promised “to hit the road early, roll

up my sleeves and work very hard,” the Review Conference only underlined how little relevance the NPT holds for the international community today.

Irrelevant This is indeed paradoxical given the fact that the threat of nuclear proliferation has never been higher. The last Review Conference of 2005 had ended without a consensus on any of the substantive issues on the agenda. There were only disagreements to show off in the end and short-term interests of the States were just too divergent to allow for any

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

meaningful debate.

CTBT

This Review Conference came after the much-hyped Nuclear Security Summit in April where the Obama administration tried to generate global consensus on securing vulnerable Àssile materials worldwide and strengthening the resolve of the international community to keep it away from terrorist groups. The US has also recently signed a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia and has announced its new Nuclear Posture Review.

The Obama Administration wants to use the new treaty with Moscow to make a case to the US Senate for the ratiÀcation of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and to the international community for a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty. It was being hoped in the corridors of power in Washington, DC that the pact with Russia, the new NPR and the Nuclear Security Summit would enhance Obama Administration’s credibility before the NPT Review Conference. At the Review Conference, the US

wanted to focus the attention of the conference on loopholes in the NPT, which it accuses States such as Iran and North Korea of exploiting. But Iran in a pre-emptive move had already blamed the US and Europe for trying to keep an exclusive hold on technological development and has vowed to defy these western double standards. It had declared that it will continue to pursue all legal areas of nuclear technology, including enrichment, though it has been careful to specify that its pursuit is exclusively for peaceful purposes. The US, on the other hand, made it clear that the impasse between the West and

Iran can only be resolved with Iran ceasing its enrichment and reprocessing efforts, as well as dismantling its equipment facilities related to such activities. There is a broader divide between the nuclear weapon states and the rest of the world that affected the negotiations at the conference from the very beginning. Non-nuclear weapon States insist that the NWS should focus on radically reducing their nuclear armaments, a commitment that they had made in 2000. The US tried to counter by showcasing its recent policies, thereby underlining that it was complying with

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

nukes REVIEW CONFERENCE

north-east INTERVIEW: TERRORISM EXPERT There is a broader divide between the nuclear weapon States and the rest of the world that affected the negotiations at the conference from the very beginning. Nonnuclear weapon States insist that the NWS should focus on radically reducing their nuclear armaments, a commitment that they had made in 2000

the requirement of the NPT that nuclear States move towards disarmament by pointing to the reductions in its nuclear stockpile under agreements with Russia in recent years. Though this did not assuage the non-nuclear States, the US tried to block any mention of its commitment towards disarmament in the conference’s Ànal report.

Safeguards A number of new ideas have been proposed in recent years to strengthen the NPT but none of them have mustered wide support. There is a proposal for limiting access to dualuse nuclear technology as well as strengthening the inspection of nuclear facilities. There is also a proposal to make withdrawing from the NPT more difÀcult and penalty-ridden. Both these proposals are in response to Iran and North Korea’s nuclear activities but none have found sufÀcient acceptance that might lead to their adoption. India has always been dissatisÀed with the global non-proliferation and arms control regime because it constrained India’s autonomy to make foreign policy decisions as dictated by its national interests. India argued that an inequitable regime that gave only a few countries the permanent right to nuclear weapons and denied others this right was inherently unstable.

India vindicated There are reasons for India to feel vindicated by its long-held stance

on these issues. Today, as the global nuclear non-proliferation regime crumbles under the weight of its own contradictions, India can rightfully claim that it was one of the Àrst States to draw the attention of the world community to these challenges. Yet India will come under special scrutiny at this Review Conference. Fortifying the NPT remains at the heart of Obama’s nuclear agenda; Washington now also plans to work towards getting countries to agree to a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty that would end the production of new bomb fuel. Given that the Obama administration has made no secret of these nuclear desires, India should be cautious as it might end up becoming the “bad guy” by default. Pakistan’s case appears reasonable to the world: It claims that if India signs the NPT it will go ahead with its own signature on the treaty. India, of course, has to worry about China and about the larger global dimension of the proliferation problem.

Indo-US pact In this context, there are inÁuential voices in the US who are questioning the basis of the US-India nuclear pact that allows India access to fuel and technology for its nuclear power plants. The critics argue that, in doing so, it also frees up older facilities that India can devote to making its own new generation of weapons. India is once again emerging as a proliferation problem for the US

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

— especially so for this Administration that views strengthening the nuclear non-proliferation regime its strategic priority. Iran has also publicly questioned the double standard of allowing India, an NPT hold-out, access to civilian nuclear technology while denying Iran, a member of the NPT, the same right.

A paper tiger? The NPT was always a Áawed document in many ways and various countries, including India, had pointed to its Áaws over the years. The balance between the three main elements of the NPT - preventing the spread of nuclear weapons to additional countries, providing countries the “right” to peaceful uses of nuclear technology and a commitment by all countries to work toward disarmament has come unstuck. The recent global developments make it amply clear that unless a thorough review is undertaken of the NPT, it would soon become a paper tiger, if it has not already. Given the horrors of September 11, 2001, the danger of nuclear terrorism and the prospect of numerous Irans and North Koreas just a screwdriver away from nuclear weapons, it’s time for the international community to promote a bolder nuclear arrangement than the NPT of 1968. The writer teaches at King’s College, London and is presently a Visiting Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania, USA.

Terrorism:

An Analysis

“JAIDEEP SAIKIA WITH BRUCE HOFFMAN, PROFESSOR, GEORGETOWN WASHINGTON DC & CELEBRATED AUTHOR OF “INSIDE TERRORISM”.

Team DSA thanks Mr. Jaideep Saikia for his enthusiastic response and we are happy to carry his interview in our north-east special. DSA: Sir, kindly explain the present security situation in the north-east. How much has it improved in the last few years?

UNIVERSITY,

to Àsh in troubled waters are some of the factors that have abetted insurgency in the north-east. The government must institute mechanisms by which the insurgent’s recruiting base — the vulnerable sections of society — is correctly integrated into the Indian dream. This section must also receive not only the sensitivities that a welfare state like India is capable of, but must also be coopted into the nation building exercise.

JS: There has been some action against groups such as JMB and JMJB. Even “Bangla Bhai” was hanged. But, a concerted move against formations such as HUJI (B) and Jamaat-e-Islami is yet to be witnessed. This is perhaps as a result of the patronage that such groups receive from the inÁuential Bangladesh army and DGFI, organisations that Bangladesh prime minister, Sheikh Hasina has reportedly not quite been able to rein in. Furthermore, the atmospherics of the present have temporarily quietened the Islamists in Bangladesh — Indian and global pressure could eventually lead not only to action against surviving Islamists, but also end in the purging of stealth Pakistanis in Bangladesh’s army and intelligence. However, a caveat that needs to be placed in this context is the compulsion that Sheikh Hasina may be faced with, leading her to abandon an appease India policy. Politics in Bangladesh waxes and wanes between Bengali linguistic nationalism and puritanical inÁuence of the Islamists. This is precisely why there were people and formations like Gholam Azam and the razakars during the pogroms of Saikia is 1971.

Mr. Jaideep Saikia: Although the quantum of violence has gone down and the security situation is witnessing a positive growth DSA: ULFA was formed to oppose curve, there is a slow-down in the peace inÀltration from Bangladesh, but it has initiatives that were expected to get off the been surviving with Bangladesh’s active ground. This is so of NSCN(IM) as also that support. Strangely for years they have of ULFA, with both groups holding on to maintained this contradictory stand. Please their intransigent positions regarding a peace process. However, Top north-east expert and terrorism analyst, Mr. Jaideep the apprehensions of credited not only for his seminal work on terrorism, Bangladesh, DSA: Islamism is growing in important insurgents Islamist militancy and insurgency in the north-east, but also for the north-east. Do you see this including ULFA his role in advising the government on matters relating to security changing security situation in chairman, Arabinda resolution, including as an expert on the north-east in the National the north-east? If yes, in what Rajkhowa and NDFB Security Council Secretariat, New Delhi. He has also authored / way? (Anti-Talk) chairman, edited eight books and numerous academic papers that have been Ranjan Daimary published in reputed national and international journals. He has JS: I had earlier written that in Bangladesh has widely travelled in the US, China, Europe and South and South East Islamists in the north-east dealt a body blow Asia on academic assignments. Mr. Saikia was also a member of the “are silent not by absence of to the insurgency activity, but by the presence Indian delegation for Track II dialogue with Bangladesh. phenomenon. of non-activity.” Indeed, there Also, Dima Halam is an array of Islamist groups, Daogah — the group that had virtually held complete with arms, ideology, funding explain how they have managed to do this? Assam’s North Cachar Hills to ransom — and training. But they are not engaging JS: ULFA steamrolled into the Assamese has ceased hostilities and come overground. the security forces because that would lead scene as the militant manifestation of But insurgent leaders like ULFA’s Paresh to a direct confrontation which they want the AASU movement against foreigners. Baruah continue to be at large and have to avoid. At any rate, the ethnic insurgent However, somewhere along its timeline — the potential of perpetrating large-scale groups are doing the Islamist dirty work perhaps for geopolitical reasons, including violence, especially as he has ruled out talks. at present. The trenches left by the former the need to have secure bases in the erstwhile DSA: What are the factors responsible for would be taken over by the Islamists East Pakistan — its founding principles the continuation of insurgency in the northwhen the time is ripe. For the present, the began to careen out of control. The fact that east? Insurgents induct their cadre from the north-east is being groomed for a decisive ULFA had ready chaperons in ISI-DGFI most vulnerable sections of the society. If the lebensraum agenda — for now the Islamists aided the turn-around. induction, by any means, is discontinued, are content with utilising the demographic insurgency will not survive. What option DSA: Bangladesh government is acting jungles of lower Assam as a gateway to the against the Islamists. You have done rest of India for subterfuge in the nation’s does government have in this regard? extensive study on Bangladesh’s Islamist economic hubs and also as a crucial post JS: Lack of development, feeling of alienation network. Kindly give your views on the operation pull-back area. from the mainstream, proximity to antipresent situation in Bangladesh. India forces that do not lose an opportunity

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

defence budget BUYING INSECURITY

Myopic policies

Brig. (Retd.) Dr. Anil Sharma

India appears to be caught in a timewarp so far as national security is concerned. Spending nearly half of Gross Domestic Product has not brought the desired results for NATO nations, all of whom Áoundered in the recent crisis in the Ànancial sector. China stands out because its defence spending is futuristic not current. The Thirteenth Finance Commission has tried to strike a balance between growth and security but its expectations of a private sector that is demanding 100 per cent foreign direct investment (currently 26 per cent) could well be misplaced. Performance budgeting ² getting a bigger bang for the buck should be the guiding principle instead our acquisition policy is badly skewed.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

defence budget BUYING INSECURITY

he Finance Minister mentioned the following as he talked about the defence allocation for the year 2010-2011. “Secure borders and security of life and property fosters development. I propose to increase the allocation for defence to Rs.147,344 crore (US$ 31.9 billion). This would include Rs. 60,000 crore for capital expenditure. Needless to say, any additional requirement for the security of the nation will be provided for.”

TABLE 1: KEY STATISTICS OF DEFENCE BUDGETS, 2009-10 AND 2010-11

TABLE 2: THIRTEENTH FINANCE COMMISSION’S PROPOSED ROADMAP FOR DEFENCE SPENDING 2010-11 TO 2014-15

Geostrategic blunders

Paltry increase This increase represents a growth rate of a mere 3.98 per cent, in nominal terms (or 0.3 per cent in real terms) over the previous years’ allocation of Rs. 1,41,703 crore, and far below the 34 per cent nominal increase witnessed in the budget for 2009-10. Furthermore total central government expenditure has grown by 8.6 per cent, but defence allocation has come down to 13 per cent by comparison against a past 15 years average of 15 per cent. Figure 1 shows the broad distribution. As a result all budget sub-parameters have come down. Note: Figures in parentheses represent percentage growth

Sources: Ministry of Defence, Defence Services Estimates 2009-10 and Ministry of Finance, Union Budget 2011.

FIGURE 1: DISTRIBUTION OF RUPEE IN THE BUDGET The sudden dip in the defence budget’s growth rate follows two related steps taken by the government. First, the government’s resolve about Àscal consolidation compounded by Ministry of Defence’s repeated failure to utilise the funds allotted. The second is the acceptance by the government of the recommendation of the Thirteenth Finance Commission (TFC).

Gloomy prospects If the Finance Ministry’s emphasis on Àscal prudence and inclusive growth

to all other countries is so pronounced that overall security outcome is favourable and further improving. It is pertinent to note that China faces no signiÀcant threat to its integrity. Its defence investment is aiming to integrate Taiwan, settle border dispute with India on its own terms and also carryout geostrategic assertion with containment / assertive designs on other nations.

has resulted in a smaller increase in the latest defence budget, the Report of the Thirteenth Finance Commission, tabled in Parliament on February 25, 2010, also paints a very gloomy scenario for India’s future defence spending. The Constitutional Commission, which has recommended on speciÀc aspects of centre-state Àscal relations, has also proposed a roadmap for defence spending for the period 2010/11-2014/15. As per the roadmap, defence spending is to grow by an annual average of 8.33 per cent during this period, with the revenue and capital components slated to increase by an annual average of 7 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively. As a percentage of GDP, defence spending will get progressively decreased to 1.76 per cent in 2014-15 (see Table 2). The reassessed Àgures for 2009-10 are based on the Àgures of 2009-10 budget estimates (BE) after factoring in the one-time arrears due to implementation of Sixth Central Pay Commission. The Finance Ministry, which is in charge of implementing the Commission’s

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

recommendations, is not only in agreement with the path but also tries to better the Àscal roadmap suggested by the Commission. This means that MoD’s future spending as outlined in the TFC could come under further stress in coming years. Question to be asked is whether leaving India’s defence to the constraints of purely Ànance driven incremental exercise undertaken year after year is the best course, or are better options available? Budget allocations are based on the recommendations of TFC. Accordingly, defence allocations as a percentage of GDP are gradually set to reduce over next 5 years from this year’s 2.12 per cent to 1.85 per cent in 201314. Our MoD / MoF representatives would have us believe that this Àgure is a mere indexation and does not effect the security / defence outcome (as responded to a question by the Parliamentary Committee on Defence). It is far from the truth, that’s why in all countries percentage of GDP forms a major budget allocation determining

parameter. However, not in India as budget heads do not reveal the ultimate object of allocation and the effectiveness achieved in the past and expected in future.

per cent, while the GDP growth rate is 5.7 per cent. Its internal vulnerabilities continue, although it faces no external military threat.

Number of studies, notably by Rand Corporation using model per cent, simulation and empirical evidence have established that when a country spends anywhere between 40-50 per cent of its average GDP growth rate, it is considered a good and balanced security investment. When actual crisis or war situations prevail, there will be variations. Correlation examples are given in the succeeding paragraphs. See Tables 3A and B.

Wise players win

Ignorant sufferers Indonesia was spending very meagre amount at one / two per cent of GDP on Defence prior to East Timor being taken away from it due also to internal strife. Bangladesh, which was spending only 0.9 per cent of GDP, while growing at 4.5 to 5 per cent average has been facing serious internal problems and terrorism. It is still spending less at 1.8

Countries like Japan, Iran and now Russia (in this century) are examples of balanced posture. They have been spending between 45 to 50 per cent of GDP growth rate on Defence at an average. They are politically, economically and security wise more secure. For example Japan’s economy has been growing at an average rate of 2 per cent. Japan has a paciÀst constitution, maintains only self defence forces, yet its defence spend varying between 0.9 to 1 per cent of GDP (45-50 per cent of GDP growth rate) is much larger than India. China too has pegged its defence expenditure around 48 to 50 per cent of GDP growth rate (average growth 8-9 per cent, defence spend 3.5 per cent declared but likely assessed to be 4 to 4.5 per cent and consequent in its comprehensive national power relative

Spending too high is equally dangerous. Excessively high levels of current military expenditure would vitiate the ability of the economy to support required levels of expenditure in the future. According to Paul Kennedy, the historical record suggests that if a particular nation is allocating over the long term more than ten per cent (and in some cases – when it is structurally weak – more than Àve per cent) of GDP to armaments, it is likely to limit its growth rate. Pakistan, Myanmar and North Korea have been spending excessively to the tune of 4 to 5 per cent of GDP over a long time. Security situation in these countries proves the point. NATO countries, particularly since 2001 have been committing more than 50 per cent of their GDP growth on their defence outlay. USA GDP growing at 2 per cent, defence spend 4 per cent, UK growth at 3.1 per cent, defence spend at 2.4 per cent, France 2.1 per cent, defence budget at 2.6 per cent, Germany growing at 2.5 per cent, defence at 1.5 per cent. The correlation between prolonged global war on terror, disproportionately high defence spending and current massive Ànancial crisis gripping US and Europe and relative immunity of major developing economies appears to be very real. It needs to be researched further. More so where China, which has studiously avoided getting into any conÁict and over and above, also facilitated its perceived competitors in remaining engaged in geo-strategic cauldron, has reaped windfall in political / economic and military power shift. This stark reality is certainly one of the major reasons for US and major European countries seeking Indian arms and high technology market. Perhaps Americans and other G-8 countries needed nuclear deal even more than India.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

defence budget BUYING INSECURITY Pakistan’s quagmire Pakistan has been spending 70 to 80 per cent of its average GDP growth rate on defence over a period of more than a decade. It is poised for implosion. This magnitude of high expenditure indicates that either the country has aggressive / hegemonic designs or faces existential threats. Pakistan, from being in former category has now also moved to the latter one. Even latest Pakistan data is very revealing. Its current growth rate is 3.5 per cent. Defence budget is 3 per cent of GDP. In 2009 it received from the US$ 2.498 billion for security, US$ 1.102 billion for development and from other countries, US$ 1.102 billion for development. Total aid comes to US$ 5.27 billion, which is 2.8 per cent of its GDP of US$ 168 billion at market exchange rates (Data Source – Pakistan Index; Carnegie Foundation and the CIA.com).

Brinkmanship? It implies that Pakistan’s defence spending now has increased to nearly 85 per cent of its GDP growth rate. Furthermore, its GDP growth rate and foreign aid are nearly the same. Due to its visceral anti-India obsession, prevailing across all sections of Pakistani society in varying degrees, it has become a norm in Pakistan, to divert developmental aid for acquiring counter-India capabilities / capacities in strategic, conventional and irregular warfare domain. The latter one is now playing out internally as also posing very serious domino effect threat to India and others. Therefore, logically Pakistan has to give up its security perceptions about India, meaning a fundamental reversal of its politicomilitary grand strategy, rationalise its defence spending and focus on internal cohesion to come to growth path as a South Asian entity with India’s goodwill and cooperation. Neither USA nor China can help Pakistan, but India can. However, it is never easy for a country to transform its collective negative attitudes unless it meets the undesirable but inevitable fate of countries like Japan, Germany and erstwhile Soviet Union. More often such country tries to drag others down to its abysmally low level. It’s a pathological imbalance. Continuation of this serious condition in Pakistan due to irrational geo-political aspirations (strategic depth, Islamic bomb, jihad in India and

beyond) driving its socio-economic agenda through skewed defense spend poses very grave risk to India, once US / NATO exit Afghanistan-Pak region. In order to be able to adequately counter such a higly probable scenario, India’s defence budget allocations need to resort to outcome based allocation system in defence.

Myopic India India offers even more interesting insight that requires deeper reÁection by the government. In sixties, it grew at 4 to 5 per cent. Defence spend averaged at 1.8 per cent and ’62 humiliation by China happened. In seventies defence spend went up to 3 per cent with GDP average growth rate average remaining 5 to 6 per cent. Favourable ‘65 and watershed ’71 happened. In eighties, economy tumbled to 3 to 4 per cent growth but defence spend was kept around 3 to 3.4 per cent. In eighties and early nineties socioeconomic situation worsened. Consequently, defence budget came down to 2.1 to 2.4 per cent. Pak sponsored proxy war materialised along with north-east insurgencies. In contrast, during this period Pakistan’s economy, heavily buoyed by US, Saudi and Chinese funds and military support Áuctuated between a high of 6 to 8.5 per cent, thus enabling it to launch proxy war in conditions of favourable economic and strategic asymmetry. From ’95 onwards, India’s economy pulled up to 6 to 7 per cent till turn of the century. From 2001 onwards, it has clocked 8 per cent growth rate at an average. However, defence budget has remained constant around 2.4 per cent. It is quite apparent that security environment has gradually worsened as borne out by rising terrorist strikes including those of strategic effects in Delhi and Bombay, 26/11 and left wing extremism across 250 districts of the country.

China syndrome India has also failed to comply with China neighbour syndrome. Every country with China as its immediate neighbour spends higher outlay on defence. For example, South Korea, North Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, Myanmar and Russia. Central Asia Republic countries, which spend less on defence, are unable to resist strategic inroads being made by USA,

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

China, Russia and Muslim terrorists. Countries which disregard geo-strategic reality, very often have to pay the price with their sovereignty. India needs to keep the China syndrome also in its focus. It can therefore be deduced with very strong correlation certainty, that whenever, defence spend of the countries has been between 40 to 50 per cent of GDP growth rate, security has been good. Exceeding this ratio on either side is prone to danger. Also ripple effect of adversarial or competing neighbours also counts. Pakistan has been exceeding the optimal zone, while Bangladesh and Nepal have been under-spending. In a brief co-relation of geostrategic outcome with defence allocation, it has very clearly been established that India’s defence budget needs to be pegged at around 45 to 50 per cent of its GDP growth rate in order to meet its geopolitical objectives. India’s defence allocation as per the recommendations of the TFC is low when viewed against expected security liabilities / outcome.

Fundamental questions The Thirteenth Finance Commission

Capital expenditure should reÀect procurement acquisitions under various output outcome forms programmes like C ISR, Air Defence, Intertheatre mobility, counter asymmetric war, defence of mountains desert borders, etc. These are imperatives of knowledge age. Revenue expenditure should be able to show the costs incurred on counter proxy insurgency operations and also on troops deployed along western northern eastern and maritime theatre

has made a signiÀcant remark Áagging the need for ushering systemic reforms in the defence budgeting system: “We [the Thirteenth Finance Commission] are of the view that there exists considerable scope to improve the quality and HIÀFLHQF\ RI GHIHQFH H[SHQGLWXUH WKURXJK increased private sector engagement, import substitution and indigenisation; improvements in procedures and practices and better project management, within the parameters of Government of India’s policy. Efforts in this direction will further H[SDQG WKH ÀVFDO VSDFH DYDLODEOH IRU GHIHQFH spending.” The TFC is coaxing the MoD to efÀciently utilize the funds allotted and if shortfall occurs it will be made up. In the present system it is not feasible. The Government always assures that more funds will be given if needed. It is a knowingly hollow assurance as long gestation period (5 to 15 years) needed for capability accretion ensures that in any running Àscal year no meaningful action can be taken even if a crisis occurs and our capabilities are found wanting, as has happened many times in the past. The debate over defence budget therefore, should not merely be about more or less money or be restricted only to how it is spent. It should also be about how the money is allocated, where it is supposed to be spent and what does it actually do to bolster national security. To put it simply, when it comes to defence spending, the issue of effectiveness should always trump the questions of efÀciency and quantum. While evolving integrated security architecture and consequent budget allocation system, certain fundamental sets of questions need to be tackled. These are: Security against which adversaries / potential adversaries / competitors? To cover what all spectrum of conÁicts? What capability / weapon platforms / systems are required? frame and against what likely capabilities of the opponents? Indicate how the various instruments (Army, Navy, Air Force, Strategic Forces and PMFs) of military power is required to be applied, in sync with other instruments of State power like the diplomatic, economic and other levers as available. Answer to these questions will emerge through a complex, multi-

tiered, overlapping and integrated defence planning and acquisition system of systems. Arriving at the Capability Needs: Gaps in the Integrated Defence Planning Process. India’s defence budget’s opaqueness towards desired security outcome is due to major constraints in the existing system, which do not exist in other major countries. India’s defence system has lately experienced constraints in its path towards reforms. When HQ IDS was established as per the GoM’s recommendations, it was to be headed by the post of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), whose tasks would include ensuring intra and inter-service prioritisation of defence plans and providing a system of jointly coordinated, single channel of military advice to the government.

Opaque system The existing system, on the contrary is a compilation of perspective plans prepared by individual Services and DRDO also producing Science and Technology plan. Budgetary allocation is a result of individual Service threat and capability assessment. A headless HQ IDS, which technically functions under all the Service Chiefs, is in no position to overrule any of the Service. There is a critical management incongruity. Annual ConÀdential Reports of all Major Generals equivalent and above ofÀcers are reviewed by their respective Service Chiefs and not by the Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee thus dampening the independent advise in the joint interests due to career stick held by their own Chiefs. In the absence of an integrated system, the end product largely reÁects the individual Service perceptions of its requirements to fulÀll the strategic goals it perceives for India and its Service speciÀc doctrinal framework. In the absence of evolution of an integrated higher defence organisation and management architecture, the existing system is unable to cope with current and emerging security complexities. Long term integrated perspective plan (LTIPP) as capability and security investment programme for the next 15-20 years from which, each of the Services could draw their schemes / project programmes on long term, Àve yearly and annually, has not been put in place. The starting point in the process of formulating an

LTIPP is the articulation of strategic guidance. In increasingly complex and interdependent imperatives of a modern nation State, defence / security planning dimensions are required to be processed through an integrated system of strategic guidance system / documents. It is brieÁy described as follows: The long term perspective planning in the armed forces to be effective and realistic would necessarily have to be collaborative in its approach, as there would invariably be a number of agencies that would contribute towards the Ànal product. The Long Term Integrated Perspective Plan (LTIPP) should aim to build joint force structures and capabilities that would be relevant for the next 15-20 years and not for the present scenario. The present crisis needs should largely be met by optimally utilising the existing inventory with innovations feasible. Procurement of consumables and spares urgently may be feasible, but new equipment which invariably will require certain procurement lead times and customisation will not help as has been the Indian experience. The starting point in the process of formulating an LTIPP is the articulation of National Security Strategy (NSS). NSS requires to be followed by articulation of defence / military strategy. Strategic Defence Review (SDR) will Áow out of the above documents. SDR will relate security strategy (national / defence) to the changes underway and their futuristic context. Raksha Mantri’s (RM’s) Defence Planning Guidelines should reÁect capability, technology, organisational and doctrinal transformation needed in near, mid and long-term timeframe. The timeframe within which a particular capability is required to be developed needs to be clearly indicated. Flowing out of the above strategic guidance documents (SGD) will be joint defence capability strategy (DCS) and interim LTIPP (ILTIPP). The DCS will comprise the missions as identiÀed and the capabilities needed enumerated. These capabilities required to fulÀll our mission needs are then weighed against existing capabilities and capacity ‘gaps’ arrived at. Once gaps in capability are known, it needs to be established

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

defence budget BUYING INSECURITY

Defence Research and Development Organisation does not have inputs to develop LTTP in accordance with Long Term Integrated Perspective Plan and also a database of technologies available within country to maximise indigenisation. Worse still its role is being further marginalised for greater systemic disaster to befall our country whether such gaps can be plugged through doctrinal or tactical means. If not and only then should we resort to material acquisition. The DCP will also give out joint as also capabilities of the individual Service. Latter will be developed by each Service and coordinated by the HQ IDS in sync with joint capabilities strategy. The SGD, DCS and ILTIPP need to be synergistically drawn up and shared with the DRDO and through it with the National S&T system and relevant industry to concurrently work on a long term integrated technology development perspective (LTITDP) wherein self-reliance will be maximised. This can be considered as enunciation of the development parameters to the technology creation system.

Jointedness Interim

Defence

Capability

and

Technology Perspective / Strategy thus, would have emerged as a function of joint interactive mechanism incorporating HQ IDS, Service HQs, OfÀce of the SA to the RM, DRDO and the civil industry (Public & Private). A Technology Commission, or in its absence the Defence R&D Board as currently constituted should have the charter to develop technology plans to support the Defence Capability needs. Implementation of macro policy aspects can commence after due consensus or as authorised by competent authority. ILTTS so evolved will be speciÀc to an ILTIPP. These two documents will need to be codeveloped in an integrated manner by the Defence Technology Commission (DTC) and till its formation the Defence R&D Board.

(HQ IDS).

Integration system

The Defence system should be able to create a secure environment allowing for sustainable national development in economic, social, technological and environmental spheres.

An Integrated Force Development Guidance (IFDG) document needs to be prepared and should serve as an integrated guidance document for capability, technology and budgetary estimates evolving system. Its components are as follows: Strategic Posture Guidance (SPG): Strategic and operational scenarios should be developed from the strategic guidance documents, SPG, interests, goals and objectives and their impact and likely responses from adversaries / competitors. Joint Concepts / Doctrines: Related to the strategic futures, these should visualise future operations and describe how forces might employ capabilities necessary to meet future military challenges for a period from Àve to Àfteen years. Science and Technology Strategy: Technology Development Strategy needs to cover basic, applied and advanced Àelds of research. Complete database of all types of defence related technology available / under development within the country should be prepared and be available with Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) / MoD / Headquarters Integrated Defence Staff

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Evolving Costing Mechanism: Defence Financial Forecast Plan will require that drafts of LTIPP and Long Term Technology Perspective (LTTP) are co-developed in an integrated manner.

Budgetary support Once capabilities are translated into technology, modernisation or upgradation programmes, cost estimates should be provided by the Ànancial planning and budgetary organisations available at various levels in order to work out outcome budgeting estimates. To make this possible, the budget format needs to be modiÀed into modular format from unit level upwards into various functional types of formation / force types, thus making aggregation at the top meaningful and related to programme output / outcomes. The allocation of budgetary resources could be evaluated for the following national security system outcomes:

Development of economic and strategic capabilities in a mutually complementary arrangement. Strategic capabilities should be extended in phases, through inner, middle and extended arcs in synergy with our changing national interests.

Budget / security correlation Capital expenditure should reÁect procurement / acquisitions under various output / outcome forms / programmes like C4ISR, Air Defence, Inter-theatre mobility, counter asymmetric war, defence of mountains / desert borders, etc. These are imperatives of knowledge age. Revenue expenditure should be able to show the costs incurred on counter proxy / insurgency operations and also on troops deployed along western / northern / eastern and maritime theatre – operation versus training deployment. Then only we shall know the output of the budget being spent on the defence and compare with the outcome achieved in terms of

success in various security missions / objectives. For example, China’s mid-term average budget distribution to their Navy, Air Force, Army and Missile forces in the ratio of approximately 35:29:29:07 respectively reÁects their strategic priorities of missions like anti-access / anti-denial, maritime lanes security and border wars under information conditions ( against India and Vietnam). Their military / missile deployment against Russia and CAR countries has been cut down and beefed up in Tibet and opposite Taiwan. Similarly US budget details do provide expenditure data on its ongoing operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Homeland Defence as part of Homeland Security arrangements, Space / Air power deployments etc. Our budget is not formatted to provide such information to the parliament / nation under the excuse that it is not feasible to do so. When other countries with modern systems can do so why not India?

Outcome budgeting Without a system of Outcome Budgeting, we shall have no clue of future Revenue burden to support today’s largely foreign purchases like Scorpene submarine, Aircraft Carrier Gorshkov etc., as also costs of equipment getting / units being replaced with the new systems. It needs to be remembered that too much expenditure on platforms / systems leaves less for operations and sustenance of forces, while excessive expenditure on revenue would leave too little for future capabilities / threats. However, an output / outcome based integrated system based on self-reliance will make mathematical ratios to judge the judiciousness of defence budget allocations totally redundant.

more of a PR exercise born out of ignorance and lack of Will at all levels to put in place a fully responsive system. Thus in the present form, nothing much can be inferred out of the revenuecapital ratios, unless efÀcient utilisation of Defence budget is brought about. An examination of the prevailing government system of elaborating in public on defence budgets suggests that it is a defensive action rather than giving the rationale as to why we spend a particular amount on defence.

Procurement symbiosis At this stage approved user needs should have been listed out as also the long term technology perspective / strategy that have provided detailed inputs about technology resources and opportunities available within the country and outside. Next question to be tackled is; who will be doing what, using the LTIPP driven projects / plans? Ideas for material solution will be determined by LTIPP as a generic / initial capability document. This is the stage when projects are put up for material solution analysis and consequent material development decisions which needs to be taken up as stated above under the aegis of the Technology Commission or in its absence the Defence R&D board with active participation of the stake holders.

Revenue-Capital ratios will convey authentic meaning in aggregate as also disaggregate form, only when the defence budgetary system is changed to outcome / output format as part of integrated defence management system.

There is a requirement to create a holistic framework for requirements setting, acquisition, production and progressive technology inÁow, increasing self-reliance as a continuous spectrum. The process therefore needs to begin with preparing a Defence Procurement and Production Strategy (DPPS).

PR exercise

Self-reliance derailed

In the present format, government published data or presentations to the Parliamentary Committees just try to show that more and more funds are being given to Defence, even at the cost of development in other sectors. This is

The fundamental Áaw in our acquisition system as deÀned by the Defence Procurement Policy (DPP) 2008 / 2009 relates to the isolation of the ‘Make’ process from the ‘Buy and Make’ process. In the new procedure, where

capital acquisitions are categorised under ‘Buy’ and ‘Buy and Make and Buy and Make (Indian)’ categories, the role of the ScientiÀc Advisor to the Raksha Mantri has been greatly marginalised and the DRDO’s role mostly conÀned to the ‘Make’ category. The process of categorisation which is critical has not been examined in DPP2008 / Amendment 2009 in any detail. The nature of categorisation is a basic decision and should be undertaken on the recommendations of knowledgebased composite study groups for all procurement proposals before the categorisation committees. Staff Qualitative Requirements: The process of developing Staff Qualitative Requirements (SQRs) is very deÀcient and needs to be executed more rigorously, taking both the operational and technological factors into account. This requires much closer interaction between the user, S&T community and the industry. The process of categorisation and evolving SQRs, involves strategic, operational, S&T, as also production process nuances. The whole process of requirement setting needs a revamp. Technology Development: The current system does not lead to a continuous technology development cycle. Making Process and Costs to Exchequer: While the decision making up to the Acceptance of Necessity (AON) has been considerably speeded up, it still has its limitations as pointed above. In practice, it has resulted very largely in ‘Buy’ and ‘Buy and Make’ decisions. Practically no ‘Make’ decisions have been made since the formulation

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

defence budget BUYING INSECURITY of even traditional project management practices. In reality most defence projects are complex in nature and have to be organised to meet the competency standards of complex projects.

of DPP-2006. Ironically, the insertion of the ‘Make’ procedure was the prime objective for greater number of ‘Make’ decisions in pursuance of the Government policy on selfreliance and the Kelkar Committee recommendations. It is felt that this is due to the very rational and necessary process applied in the ‘Make’ procedure not being included in the chapter on ‘Buy’ and ‘Buy and Make’ decisions. Decision making in the acquisition process of issuing RFPs, contract negotiations, approvals and Ànally Àelding the capability on ground after due trials and customisation in taking the Buy / Buy and Make decisions requires another look. This aspect has huge implications for the costs at which we acquire and sustain systems, as also, the loss to Indian R&D and industry in terms of capability and capacity. An economic analysis of DRDO undertaken by National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in December 2008 suggests that beneÀt to cost ratio of the Light Combat Aircraft project is 1.17 at 12 per cent discount rate and 1.34 at 10 per cent discount with a social rate of internal return being 13 to 15 per cent at the current level of production order of 2009-2010. If we were to add to these calculations, the equivalent imported costs of the systems acquired, this Àgure could double or even triple. Many of the projects included in the AAP, do not have even the AON at the point of their being included and therefore, many such projects are unable to complete the acquisition process in time leading to contracts. Project Management: The project management system being followed in Defence, fails to meet the standards

Offset System: In its present form, the offset system is not likely to succeed in the objective of technology acquisition and defence capability building. Rather it will lead to paying higher prices to foreign manufacturers. Synergy: The synergy among all the direct, as also the myriad number of indirect stakeholders is greatly lacking. Self-Reliance: The goal of attaining self-reliance has been practically lost in DPP-2008 / 2009. Formal documents like NSS, defence / military strategy, SDR do not exist. Even more importantly there is no active participation from NSC, MEA, MoD (Defence Production), OfÀce of the SA / RM, DRDO and academics / think tanks, without which a system based process cannot commence. HQ IDS did not even have a mandate for such a task. Finally with the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) not in place military policy formulation and coordination also suffers. In practice today the LTIPP has little relevance to the Àve year plans and the annual acquisition plans have in them schemes not quite related to the Àve year plan and as a matter of fact a number of changes are incorporated even in the AAPs with standby schemes inducted to utilise the budgeted amounts in the course of the year and even so there are shortfalls. DRDO does not have inputs to develop LTTP in accordance with LTIPP and also a database of technologies available within country to maximise indigenisation. Worse still its role is being further marginalised for greater systemic disaster to befall our country. Force employment and force development systems along with budgetary constraints lack synergy for want of integrated force development

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Indian navy CRIME N PUNISHMENT guidelines. Defence production and procurement system remains faulty at very many decision and implementation points like material solution analysis and decision mechanism. All across the system, dice is heavily loaded against self reliance through Make process by DRDO / Industry. More so DRDO now being the weakest stakeholder remains on the receiving end taking much of the Áak for deÀciencies of other stakeholders.

Good men of Hindustan As a consequence of the foregoing systemic deÀciencies, every player is working under the impression that it is serving the country well, without knowing what service our country actually needs and how it is to be delivered. It is therefore, not surprising that at every crisis our defence capabilities are found wanting, with major voids continuously left uncovered. Be it 1962, 1965, and 1971, Kargil 1999, Operation Parakram 2002, Mumbai 26/11 or Naxal strikes. Every time it becomes apparent that critical capabilities / weapons / spares deÀciencies were ex import and these were delayed / denied for political or strategic reasons. This repeatedly leads to logistic delegations, urgent contracts and so on which have been criticised in many an ofÀcial and non-ofÀcial forums of India.

Defence deals and frequent scams have brought the peculiarities of military justice to the fore. The use of the “Pleasure of the President” clause of the Constitution of easing out suspect military personnel has the advantage of protection of post retirement (voluntary or under duress) beneÀts like pension. On the face of it there appears to be a denial of justice, of equality before law, which is being tested in courts.

Cmde. (Retd.) Ranjit B. Rai

Investigations of

convenience

TFC’s recommendations to curb wasteful expenditure, bring in import substitution and indigenisation cannot be realised just by piecemeal improvements in the processes when entire defence enterprise is archaic and requires complete overhaul. Question arises, who will do it; whether it will be the Government, Parliament, MoD, Finance Ministry, DRDO, DPSUs, Services, or all of us collaboratively and with dispatch, before next crisis with far graver consequences engulfs the nation? The dark clouds are already looming large over the horizon along and beyond our western frontiers. The writer is Joint Director at Institute of National Security Studies, New Delhi and Senior Research Fellow with Forum for Strategic and Security Studies, New Delhi. He is a former head of the OfÀce of Net Assessment in the MoD. He got his doctorate for developing a system dynamics model of integrated national security system to guide the Military Force Transformation.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Indian navy CRIME N PUNISHMENT

arge defence acquisitions in India have invariably been mired in scandals which disrupt the acquisition process impinging on long term national security interests. The term ‘Bofors’ has become a symbol of pay offs exposed by a Swedish Radio in 1987, but no tangible proof to pin recipients of the commissions though tracked to named banks and accounts in Switzerland, could be proved by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI). Many have dubbed CBI’s investigations of defence deals as investigations of convenience, as pay offs in defence deals, do take place world over and the political establishments attempt to cover them up.

Deals and scams This has happened in UK, with BAe and in France. In the 1990s in India surfaced the Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW) submarine scandal when India’s Ambassador in Germany Oza exposed the 6 per cent illegal commission paid for the Àrst four boats and inquired if the same was to be paid for the next two. This led to black listing of HDW, much to other suppliers’ advantage, just after the INS Shalki (S45) and INS Shankul (S46) were successfully constructed at Mazagon Docks Ltd. (MDL) and commissioned in 1992 and 1994. The long drawn out HDW CBI inquiry also came to naught, but the Navy’s quest for two more 1500 class submarines to follow the INS Shalki and INS Shankul at MDL died and submarine welding and outÀtting technology learnt from the Germans also dissipated. The loss in money terms to restart the facility at MDL’s East Yard is now playing out in the six Scorpene deal signed in 2005 which is also mired in controversy and is delayed and the cost has escalated, for very unusual circumstances.

Delays

MDL ‘purchased material’. The Àrst submarine is now expected to be delivered in the second half of 2015. The delay in scheduled delivery of submarines is likely to have an impact on the envisaged force level,” he admitted. But Antony added, “However, the gap in submarine capacity has been addressed by modernisation with the state-of-the-art weapon and sensor Àt on the existing submarines which have signiÀcantly enhanced their combatworthiness against any eventuality.” This needs introspection.

Article 310/311 This article is an analysis of the statement by the honourable Defence Minister, the reasons for the escalated cost and how the delay in the Scorpene project affects the Navy’s operational readiness and its possible connection with the war room leak of 2006 where Article 311 of the Constitution read in conjunction with Section 15 of the Navy Act known as the ‘Doctrine of the Presidents’ Pleasure’ was employed. In this doctrine Armed Forces OfÀcers serve at the pleasure of the President and can be removed at will which has seen the removal of four serving naval and air force ofÀcers in the war room leak case. In this, the mysterious role of the absconding arms dealer retired Lt. Cdr. Ravi Sankaran is being tracked and he was nabbed by British authorities in April, awaiting India’s intelligence agencies to press for his extradition. In the past the legal clause of President’s Pleasure to remove ofÀcers from service without pension has been used at will as the procedure is not clear and happening without approval of the cabinet or the President’s formal consent and thus needs review. In an earlier case a naval Captain, an attaché in the Indian High Commission in Pakistan,

The Àrst Scorpene is now due for delivery only in 2015, and Defence Minister A. K. Antony conÀrmed to Parliament that delivery of the Àrst Scorpqne class submarine has been delayed by three years. Mr. A. K. Antony further clariÀed the contract had speciÀed the Àrst boat would be delivered in December 2012 and thereafter one each every year till December 2017. He said: “There has been a delay due to initial teething problems, absorption of technology and augmentation of

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

With INS Sindhukriti a Kilo languishing in Hindustan Shipyard Ltd. at Vishakhapatnam for a reÀt to convert to Klub missile Àring for the last three years and almost one half of the Áeet in reÀt or upgrade at any one time, the Navy has just a handful of submarines for the defence of India’s large 7,500 km coast line and island territories, until new submarines join. This is a gap that needs Àlling even by acquisition as the Scorpene build time may take even longer.

was trapped by Pakistan’s ISI, who photographed him in compromising positions. He confessed to New Delhi and was advised to forthwith drive to Wagah border from Islamabad and was silently removed from service under Article 311, possibly a correct use, to avoid national embarrassment.

War room leak In Indian Navy’s war room leak case, far reaching incriminating statements were made on TV and other media as details of arms dealers, including Lt. Cdr. Ravi Sankaran and Abhishek Verma, the son of a politician, and others kept cropping up. And the name of Thales and the Scorpene deal got linked. Three responsible ofÀcers serving in the Navy’s nerve centre in South Block were dismissed by then Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee under the same draconian Article 310 linked with 311 of the Indian Constitution, which was employed by George Fernandes to summarily remove CNS Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat in 1998 without rank or pension (later restored) under President’s powers. The use of the President’s pleasure for such cases of moral turpitude or professional misconduct needs review, as the dismissal has no recourse to law as per the statute and affects the fundamental rights of an aggrieved Indian.

Review needed Late Justice Shah who contributed to the writing of India’s Constitution had warned Pandit Nehru not to include this colonial clause, as it was a legacy of the British, who have no written Constitution. The article was meant for the then needs of the British armed forces that operated worldwide and at great distances from Whitehall. The designated authorities were delegated

Nerpa acquisition

powers to summarily dismiss ofÀcers abroad under the King’s or Queen’s pleasure and be transported back to UK for trial. But Nehru, fearful of coups, insisted on its inclusion. Justice Shah then pleaded that since ofÀcers serve at the Pleasure of the President as the doctrine is termed, the President should be allowed to ‘apply his or her mind’ before enforcing the Article. Panditji closed the matter saying he did not wish to have a presidential system of governance, and no powers should rest with the President of India. The draconian rule has stayed without clear directions of its employment and has been selectively used and also misused as a threat, to make ofÀcers resign. During the tenure of Gen. Sunith Rodrigues three Army Generals were forced to put in their resignation letters and allowed to leave.

Violates equality Yet despite the national ramiÀcations of the Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat case in 1998 when the Government fell in its wake, the procedure of how this draconian power is to be exercised has not been deÀned. By default, as there is no speciÀc reference to this Article of the Constitution in the lengthy Rules of Transaction of Business issued by the Government, the Defence Minister exercises the absolute power to use this powerful tool to dismiss an ofÀcer. Many legal experts feel it contradicts the tenets of Article 14 of the Constitution, of equality before law, and is discussed at length in a book, Admiral Vishnu

Bhagwat Sacked or Sunk (Manas) by a legal expert and this writer.

Submarine Áeet The Navy’s submarine Áeet had soared to 21 in the 1990s, including a nuclear boat INS Chakra on lease. The strength is now down to 15 and consists of 10 Kilo class boats, half of them aging as they are over 20 years old and four aging HDW 1500 HDW submarines recently upgraded with Atlas Electronix combat system and Carl Ziess periscopes. The submarine Áeet includes one obsolete Foxtrot class submarine used for trials.

Russian and Indian media reports reveal that Indian submariners have received nuclear submarine training at Sosnovy Bar, a small village near St. Petersburg, which was earlier done at Paldisky, now in Estonia. And it is conÀrmed that the Indian Navy will acquire the nuclear propelled 8000 ton Akula class submarine (Project 871), the Nerpa, from Russia this year. The submarine has completed repairs at Kosomolsk-on Amur, after an unfortunate Àre whilst on trials. India needs to possess adequate nuclear and conventional submarines. It was Admiral Elmo Zumwalt who had said, “The Ocean is the area with the greatest potential to produce major shifts in the global power balance”. India is appreciating this now, with China’s postures of patrols in the Indian Ocean and with statements that it needs bases in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) to

For long term Mustice the procedure for use of Article 311 should be spelt out clearly in the list of transaction of Government business. The President, Prime Minister or Cabinet should be made the referral authority for action, so that it is seen to be above board. Of¿cers in uniform deserve Mustice by more than one mind

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Indian navy CRIME N PUNISHMENT Indigenous midgets

agency’s true motives”.

The Indian DRDO is struggling to build miniature submarines called midgets and Larsen and Toubro Ltd. which contributed to the nuclear submarine INS Arihant hull and systems is involved in the development. Atlas Electronix Ltd. and others have offered combat and control suites. With a defence budget four times larger than Pakistan’s, which includes US military aid, India can out weapon all its neighbours combined, but that should not lull New Delhi into complacency, as the Defence Minister suggested in Parliament.

Armaris had conveniently risen as a marriage between Direction des Constructions Navales (DCN) and Thales with objectives to look for new business in the world market for warships and combat systems by bringing together the founding partners and their prime building and commercial resources. It is now widely known the contract signed for the six submarines included clauses for supply of engine and other components from India and France, and indicative prices normally entertained for estimation purposes were included in the MDL contract. The costs have now escalated and hence the Defence Minister has used the words ‘and augmentation of MDL ‘purchased material’.

The Indian Navy’s expansion plan is the largest undertaken by any developing nation and its priorities are now to acquire strategic assets. In this submarines are a most vital component and coupled with more aircraft carriers, can play a responsible role in the IOR. All nations of South East Asia are acquiring submarines and Malaysia already has two Scorpenes. And it has also set up a base at Kota Kina Balu with a submarine trainer and offered it for training to the Indian Navy. Maritime cooperation in the region is the tenet of the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium set up by the Indian Navy and the second meet was held in Abu Dhabi in May this year.

Scams safeguard the sea trafÀc of its trade and energy resources that come through the sea lanes and choke points like the Malacca Straits, where the Indian Navy has patrolled and holds advantage with its proximity to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Strategists call this ‘China’s Malacca Dilemma’.

Submarine advantages Submarines are ideal for stealth patrols and nuclear boats can speedily cover vast spaces and also provide India its nuclear deterrent, so essential for India’s “no Àrst use policy” and this needs to be fully understood. India’s own nuclear submarine, the INS Arihant, is some years away from being an operational platform and was slated to be only a technology demonstrator. And the Nerpa will only have tube launched short range missile capability, possibly of the Klub variety that six of India’s Kilo class submarines possess and was what the Defence

Minister alluded to. The Pakistan Navy with a small coast line operates a Áeet of Àve dieselelectric submarines with missiles and three MG110 miniature submarines from its base in Karachi and the nucleus comprises two Agosta-70 boats and three modern Agosta-90B submarines, all of French design from the same French stable as India’s Scorpenes. Pakistan’s third Agosta-90B, the S 139 Hamza, was constructed indigenously at the Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works and features the DCNS MESMA (Module d’EnergieSous-Marin Autonome) airindependent propulsion system (AIP) which is akin to a nuclear submarine, thus allowing it to stay under water for longer periods without coming up for battery charging. Pakistan hopes to retroÀt the 2 Agosta-90B vessels with the MESMA AIP propulsion system during their next major overhaul and the Indian Navy has the same option on the Scorpenes after the Àrst two.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

The Government had approved a two production-line 30 year submarine building plan for the Navy in 1997 but it has only moved on the US$ 4 billion six Scorpene deal with the defunct manufacturer Armaris. This is now under the CBI’s scanner as e-mails, accusations and innuendoes of money taking with names appearing in the media. Transparency International has also gone to court in a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) led by a former respected Chief of Naval Staff Admiral R. H. Tahiliani and represented by CPIL legal counsel Prashant Bhushan. Bhushan had said to Outlook magazine, “Isn’t it strange that the CBI has not even bothered to recover the material the IB generated during its year-long surveillance of the accused in the war room leak case? Wouldn’t the material available with IB help the CBI establish all the leads in the case? The fact that they have not sought out anything in over two years raises very disturbing questions about the

The new company was to act on behalf of the French government which entrusted Armaris a number of national programmes considered likely to attract international sales. The US$ 4 billion Indian Scorpene project was its jewel but today Armaris has shut shop and reverted to DCN and Thales which may have legal implications if any wrongdoing is found. Already a court in Paris has found Thales guilty of wrongdoing in the Taiwan Lafayette six Frigate sale of 1991 and Àned it. The former Foreign Minister of France Roland Dumas was found guilty of using the French oil giant Total for money transactions. The total sum ordered paid by the court in the case is around Euro 630 million (US$ 830 million), Thales has admitted in a statement. Adding that its share comes out to about 27 per cent as its portion of the original contract. Thales spokesman Caroline Philips said the French State will pay the remainder. The Taiwanese navy bought six Lafayette frigates from French Àrm Thomson-CSF - which changed its name to Thales SA as well as State-owned shipbuilders and there was the mysterious death of a Taiwanese naval captain involved in the deal.

Scorpene capabilities The Scorpqne class of submarines, with the latest SUBTICS combat management system, and with Exocet SM-39 missiles from MBDA that India has selected, is the latest SSK class from DCN and based on the proven Améthyste class. And in the Indian project, Navatia of Spain is also a partner in their construction. Scorpqne submarines are designed for

missions ranging from anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare, to special operations and intelligence gathering. The Integrated Navigation System combines data from global positioning systems and India will have its own GPS of seven satellites provided by ISRO by 2012. The Scorpene has log and depth measurement and the ship’s trim / list monitoring system and the sonar suite include a long-range passive cylindrical array, an intercept sonar, active sonar, distributed array, a Áank array, a highresolution sonar for mine and obstacle avoidance and a towed array. The Scorpene choice is a good choice and is like India’s 155mm Howitzer gun from Bofors and HDW which both proved good choices. But the contracts were scuttled. If any wrongdoing does surface in the Scorpene project the long term needs of India should be considered.

Deep-sea rescue The Scorpene submarines are equipped with full rescue and safety systems. A connection point for a diving bell or a Deep Submergence Rescue Vehicle (DSRV) for rescue operations is provided to mate with and also with the US Áy away DSRV that India has contracted for emergencies. The Indian Navy has sent out a Request For Information (RFI) to build two large diving support vessels with DSRVs. The Navy is also set to decide on the torpedoes that will arm the Scorpenes and the choice boils down to the Blackshark from WASS of Italy or the Seahake from Germany. The planning and design of the Scorpene was directed towards achieving an extremely quiet vessel with a great anti-detection capability and offensive power. The forms of the hull, the sail and the appendages have been speciÀcally designed to produce minimum hydrodynamic noise. The various items of equipment are mounted on elastic supports, which are in turn mounted on uncoupled blocks and suspended platforms. The isolation also provides better shock protection to the equipment. The Scorpene has two diesel generation sets providing 1,250 kW of power. At the top of the hull immediately above the diesel generator sets is a Dutch Breach machinery shipping hatch. The submarine has an elastically supported 2,900 kW electronic engine.

CBI inquiry The Scorpene deal is witnessing a CBI inquiry, a Public Interest Litigation and individual litigations in the war room leak case and needs resolution and a re-look on the issue of pensions of the dismissed ofÀcers under Article 311. The second line of submarine building in India with BrahMos vertical launch missile system is pending under the newly amended DPP-08 that encourages ‘Buy Design and Make’ and Ministry of Defence is to nominate the Indian shipyard to look for a foreign partner and issue Request For Proposals. If this is not done soon the Navy’s submarine acquisition plans could be set back once again. It may be pertinent to point out that Larsen and Toubro Ltd. had offered to build a Scorpene submarine along with MDL but the proposal was not pursued. For long term justice the procedure for use of Article 311 should be spelt out clearly in the list of transaction of Government business. The President, Prime Minister or Cabinet should be made the referral authority for action, so that it is seen to be above board. OfÀcers in uniform deserve justice by more than one mind, since bureaucrats are well insulated by the Article 310 and the principle of President’s Pleasure cannot be applied to bureaucrats without an inquiry and they also have recourse to law, which is denied to service ofÀcers in Article 311.

Many in the past have got away in defence deals and it is said anything is possible. The direly needed 197 utility helicopter deal which nearly went to Eurocopter was cancelled by Defence Minister A. K. Antony when the US competing Àrm Bell objected. Antony saw the wrongdoing and he came of as an honest Minister but being personally very honest and righteous is not the true criterion of honesty in public or military life, but acting decisively against malfeasance taking place right under your nose, is. Article 311 of the Constitution, thus, needs a re-look and its modus operandi be fully publicised. The writer is a former Director Naval Intelligence and Director Naval Operations. Presently he is Vice President of Indian Maritime Foundation.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

neighbour watch UNHOLY ALLIANCE

Brig. (Retd.) Chitranjan Sawant, VSM

nuclear quadrangle

The complexities of South Asian geopolitics have increased exponentially with the addition of the nuclear dimension. External powers have exploited the situation in whatever form they have managed to. China’s support for Pakistan’s clandestine activities is an open secret, as is the United States ignoring it. All of these need to be deftly handled by India.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

neighbour watch UNHOLY ALLIANCE

he nuclear arena in South Asia has two players who are traditional rivals and more often than not remain at daggers drawn. One need not expect a prize in guessing who they are. India and Pakistan are nuclear powers and India is leading in the race for additional acquisitions of nuclear warheads. The new competition is for having nuclear reactors for ostensibly peaceful purposes. Indeed no one is willing to throw light on the hidden agenda, if any. In this context one may recall that after the attack on the Indian Parliament by Pakistan trained terrorists, Indian and Pakistani armies were deployed on the borders, ready for war. Soldiers were facing each other, eyeball to eyeball, for almost a year. But for international intervention, the two armies were ready to shoot at each other. Under the possibility of nuclear attack, if circumstances required, but thank God, the nuclear threat didn’t materialise.

Historical animosity

last six decades. When India became a declared nuclear power, Pakistan just could not digest it. Although it had no knowhow or nuclear expertise, it detonated nuclear devices all the same just to keep up with the Joneses. One wondered where Pakistan got enriched uranium from and also the design for making a nuclear bomb. (1) By 1989 China had provided Pakistan with complete blueprint of nuclear device and in 1993 China detonated nuclear device made by Pakistan. Thus by 1998 nuclear test Pakistan had all the components of device and detonation ready. It is an international open secret that the People’s Republic of China not only encouraged Pakistan morally, materially, Ànancially but also by playing the role of a godfather.

Anti-India friendship After the 1962 India-China war, China made Pakistan as an inseparable ally with the common cause of containing India and preventing her from becoming a regional leader in South

oriental and occidental powers were keen on coming closer. That is a part of history now and brings America too in the South Asian Nuclear Quadrangle. Of course, international diplomacy and need of the hour brought the United States of America closer to India and it was President Bush who facilitated it. Thus in the quest for nuclear reactors for atomic energy to be used for peaceful purposes America stood with India. Pakistan too asked America for a similar help but was denied because of its dubious past in the nuclear Àeld. Pakistan stood alone in the nuclear arena for a while.

Unholy designs The Bush Administration of the United States was determined to ensure that Pakistan did not get a nuclear reactor despite its pleadings for its peaceful use. America knew from past experience that Pakistan professed peace but did not practise peace. Moreover, there was always the lurking danger of the Islamist terrorists in Pakistan getting

Pakistan was born when India was vivisected. The new Islamic State was born in bloodshed, hatred, plunder,

rape and genocide. In the areas that were declared by the British paramount power as Pakistan, the Hindu minority was a victim of State atrocities that defy description. Muslims migrated from India to their El Dorado called Pakistan but suffered an ignominy of being labelled Mohajirs or migrants. Thus Pakistan imbibed hatred for India as a part of sustenance through umbilical cord that it is unwilling to shake off. That explains the unhealthy competition in every Àeld of life and living not excluding dastardly attacks on India that were always repulsed. The animosity has deepened over the

Asia. The unholy alliance has stood the test of the time for four decades or so. I shall not be spilling beans if I say that it was China that gifted to Pakistan a couple of kilos enriched uranium and a design to make the nuclear bomb. A.Q. Khan, known as the father of the Islamic bomb of Pakistan stands beholden to China in this matter. President Hu Jintao of China has said with aplomb that the friendship between China and Pakistan is higher than mountains and deeper than oceans. After all it was Pakistan that had facilitated American President Nixon’s Áight to China from Pakistan when the

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

After the 1962 IndiaChina war, China made Pakistan as an inseparable ally with the common cause of containing India and preventing her from becoming a regional leader in South Asia. The unholy alliance has stood the test of the time for four decades or so

hold of the dirty bomb. After 9/11 debacle, America was over cautious. Once bitten, twice shy is an age old saying and Americans were determined not to let history repeat itself. China too practises consummate diplomacy and knew the mood of America and that precluded China gifting a nuclear reactor to Pakistan at that point of time. New lords, new laws and Washington DC is no exception to this. Came Obama Administration and brought in different priorities. The foremost plan in President Obama’s mind was to militarily disengage in Afghanistan as soon as possible. America needed and bought the support of Pakistan for an honourable withdrawal from Afghanistan. Of course, to keep chin up, Obama ordered a surge in troops to the tune of 30,000 and then go in for a planned withdrawal after winning a major battle against the Taliban in Kandahar. America needed the active support of Pakistan Army in engaging the Taliban forces in the no man’s land between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Since giving an American nuclear reactor to Pakistan was out of the question, America chose to turn Nelson’s eye to China giving a similar gift to Pakistan. Now, an emboldened China has made a public announcement that it would sell two nuclear reactors to Pakistan. A big deal indeed and the biggest beneÀciary is Pakistan. Chinese reactors and American greenback dollars in hand and now Pakistan may go laughing to the bank.

Global proliferation America has an aim plus. It expects China to exercise its inÁuence

and persuade Iran not to go nuclear. America expects China to play the ball and the great expectations may not be belied. The way this game is being played shows that the Obama administration is not as strong as the Bush Administration was. Further, India may have to exercise its willpower to forge ahead in the Àeld of nuclear arena and international diplomacy. America still stands by India in giving a nuclear reactor and ensuring continual supply of fuel and spares but the situation is a wee bit different from what it was in the regime of President Bush. The Afghanistan war and the new AF-PAK policy of the United States has brought in a qualitative change in the South Asian Nuclear Quadrangle. Nevertheless, there is no cause for India to worry. India has enough strength to stand on its feet. One may recall that India exploded nuclear devices twice on its own without any foreign support unlike Pakistan. Indeed to maintain studied neutrality India has to stand upright and not lean on the friendship of countries that have specialised in dubious diplomacy. India need not blame any country for the new scenario. Every country carries forward its national interests into its international diplomacy and policies are framed and executed accordingly. Be that as it may, India stands erect and is upright in both precept and practice. “A friend in need is a friend indeed”. China has been standing by Pakistan whenever the latter had problems Ànancial, military and nuclear. Now the news of two additional nuclear reactors from China for Pakistan has drawn adverse reactions from both the nuclear powers and conventional powers. One may recall that this is not the Àrst time that China is building and installing nuclear reactors for Pakistan.

agreement in 1985 for the installation of two nuclear reactors in Pakistan by China. Accordingly the Àrst nuclear reactor was built at Chashma in the Punjab province of Pakistan in 1991 and called Chashma I. The work on the second nuclear reactor, Chashma II is going on and is likely to be completed in 2011. The Pakistan plan to have two more nuclear reactors was frowned upon by the Bush Administration and at that point of time China was in no position to supply two more nuclear reactors to Pakistan against the wishes of America. As has been explained in succeeding lines in this article the situation in 2010 has undergone a sea change. China is emboldened to go its own way to buttress the nuclear capability of Pakistan to contain India in the nuclear Àeld. Chashma III and Chashma IV will enhance Pakistan’s nuclear capability. China is doing so despite Pakistan’s help to Iran, Libya and North Korea in their design to possess the atomic bomb. The deal is a violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Those who supervise its implementation are keeping mum on this grave matter. The Chinese spokesman who made the news public about two more nuclear reactors to Pakistan did not specify whether it was an outright gift or some hard currency would change hands. It is, however, well known that China has been giving sufÀcient funds to Pakistan to enhance its nuclear capabilities. The Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research and Design Institute has been hired to design the two new nuclear reactors. The new projects will be Chinese from A to Z. It is indeed a cause of concern for India but not much can be done by India at this stage except to remonstrate with the United States of America for keeping quiet on this deal.” The writer is a well-known commentator on television and radio and has been giving running commentaries on Akashvani, Doordarshan and other channels on the Republic Day Parade and other national events for 38 years in Hindi. He has travelled widely and written on events in the conÁict zones around the world.

Chinese game plan China and Pakistan had reached an

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

ncc TOMORROW’S LEADERS

cartoon

LAUGH N RELAX!

Scaling new

+(,*+76

ddressing a group of NCC cadets in New Delhi, the Defence Secretary, Mr. Pradeep Kumar hoped the cadets, who have excelled at national-level competitions in equestrian and shooting events, would win glory for India in the 19th Commonwealth Games, due to be held in New Delhi from October 3-15, 2010.

The Defence Secretary later Áagged off an NCC Boys Mountaineering Expedition to ‘Gangotri-I’ peak, located at a height of about 22,000 feet, in Uttarakhand. Twenty NCC boy cadets, aged between 17 and 19 years, from across the country, will attempt to scale the summit in mid-June. Led by Lt. Col. S.S. Phogat and Major K.S. Dhami, it will be the 65th Mountaineering Expedition by the NCC. Gangotri I, II and III peaks lie to the south-west of Gangotri in Uttarkashi District of Uttarakhand. Summiting these rugged peaks requires elaborate preparations, meticulous planning and excellent climbing skills. The Defence Secretary also released the NCC Coffee Table Book titled ‘Grooming Tomorrow’s Leaders’ on the occasion, which presents the evolution, organisation, training and activities of the NCC. Earlier in his welcome note, the Director General, NCC, Lt. Gen. R.K. Karwal complimented the cadets for making extensive preparations for the challenging expedition.

June 2010 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING OUTLETS You may procure your copy from any of these or write to us directly

VEER NEWS AGENCY, PUNE LANDMARK LTD., PUNE PATAK BROS NEWSPAPER AGENT, NAGPUR LANDMARK LTD. INDIFINTY, MUMBAI LANDMARK LTD. AIRPORT TERM-MUMBAI

9827145302, 0771 2225851

DELHI & NCR

24653792/93/94 26143530, 26156377/88 41664206 46150989, 40597569 46075620/21 0124-4015584/85/86 0120-2450066/68

DURGA NEWS AGENCY, GUWAHATI P. C. JAIN AND CO., IMPHAL, MANIPUR PUNJAB AND HARYANA E.B.S. NEWS AGENCY, CHANDIGARH JAIN STORES, CHANDIGARH

9435140817, 9435049511 0385-2451756, 9436027526 9814110136, 0172-2703570 0172-4612350

RAJASTHAN SARVODAYA NEWS AGENCY, JODHPUR RATHI MEDIA CENTRE, JODHPUR CHAMAN NEWS AGENCY, KOTA CHAJJED NEWS AGENCY, BIKANER KAILASH BOOK CENTRE, UDAIPUR NAVRATAN BOOK SELLERS, JAIPUR

LANDMARK LTD. APEX, CHENNAI LANDMARK LTD. SPENCER, CHENNAI LANDMARK LTD. CITICENTRE, CHENNAI LANDMARK LTD. AMPA SKYWALK, CHENNAI 0124-4309401 011-23363976, 9871404233 9871990399 24690134, 41757511 254694610 9971435684

9825042967, 079-5501336, 079-40027500/501 0265-6647777

JAMMU & KASHMIR RAINA NEWS AGENCY, JAMMU SHILA BOOK CENTRE, JAMMU JAYPEE NEWS AGENCY, SRINAGAR

9822034176, 9822279186 020-66204758 0712--2420293 022-26396010/11 /12/13

02912-653735 9829023580 0151-2221100, 9829218705 0294-2561145, 0294-2417542 9829373912, 0141-2317661

TAMILNADU

GUJARAT MEHUL NEWS AGENCY, AHMEDABAD LANDMARK LTD., AHMEDABAD LANDMARK LTD. MONALISHA COMPL., VADODARA

080-42404340

NORTH-EAST

CHATTISGARH

OM BOOK SHOP – DELHI AND NCR SOUTH EXTN., VASANT VIHAR COMMUNITY CENTRE SAKET, MGF METROPOLITAN MALL,SAKET DLF PLACE MALL, VASANT KUNJ MGF METROPOLITAN MALL, GURGAON GREAT INDIA PLACE MALL, NOIDA ODYSSEY OUTLETS – DELHI AND NCR DMRC-MALL PITAMPURA, BARAKHAMBHA ROAD CHANDNI CHOWK, AIRPORT TERMINAL GREAT INDIA PLACE, NOIDA, SHIPRA MALL SPENCER OUTLETS – DELHI AND NCR PACIFIC MALL, GHAZIABAD SHOPPRIX, NOIDA MGF MALL, GURGAON TEKSONS, SOUTH EXTN., AMITY UNIVERSITY, NOIDA LANDMARK LTD., GURGAON J. L. & SONS, GOLE MARKET PANDEY NEWS AGENCY, MANDIR MARG MERCURY MEDIA, KHAN MARKET BAHRI SONS, KHAN MARKET ARIHANT BOOK SHOP, DELHI CANTT.

LANDMARK LTD., F0RUM, BENGALURU LANDMARK LTD., JAYANAGAR, BENGALURU MAHARASHTRA

ANDHRA PRADESH LANDMARK LTD., SOMAJI GODA, HYDERABAD LANDMARK LTD., BANJARA HILLS, HYDERABAD LANDMARK LTD., AIRPORT CHECK IN, HYDERABAD LANDMARK LTD., AIRPORT DEPARTURE, HYDERABAD LANDMARK LTD., INT.AIRPORT CHECK-IN, HYDERABAD LANDMARK LTD., INT.AIRPORT DEPARTURE, HYDERABAD

MUKUND PARIK NEWS AGENCY, RAIPUR

KARNATAKA

0191-2546570 0191-2574912 09419066192

044-43438040

UTTAR PRADESH LANDMARK LTD. WEST END MALL, LUCKNOW

0522-4025555

UTTARANCHAL NATIONAL NEWS AGENCY, DEHRADUN

9837638773, 0135-2717280,