DSA June 2011 by Defence and Security Alert

editor-in-chief

n India it was an I told you so moment. For the US and the rest of the world it was I thought so and for the Pakistani people it was, alas, I couldnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t say so. As for the Pakistan Army it was simply, I never knew so. All of these responses were united by the announcement by President Barack Obama that US special forces had finally found Osama bin Laden, alive and he was now dead. It was cathartic for the US, struggling since 11 September 2001 to put an end to the nihilism that Al-Qaeda represented. That the US penetrated Pakistani airspace and found bin Laden ensconced in the cooler climes of Abbottabad makes the tale all that more murky. For it is the location of the hunted that provokes the aforementioned reactions. It wasnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t a cave in a tribal badland as many would have liked the world to believe. Neither was it some state-has-ceased-to-exist Somalia kind of country. It was in the British colonial dreamscape location of Abbottabad that his nemesis finally caught up with Osama bin Laden.

The vast majority of the people of Pakistan couldnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t quite believe their ears and their eyes, as they watched the post-action drama unfold. It was a wretched way to begin a week. Everything that they had feared was now confirmed to them, albeit in a manner that made the shame so much more miserable. The US was informing their country that the most wanted man in the world was caught living in luxury in a town that houses the prestigious Pakistan Military Academy Kakul, as well as three regimental centres. And that the town is salubrious in climate, if not in nature. It was a body blow for the Pakistani people that the hated Americans had snuffed out Osama bin Laden from under the nose of the Pakistan Army and all the radars of the Pakistan Air Force could do nothing about it. There was no question of jamming any radars on the way simply because many international flights have to use the Abbottabad-Peshawar over fly route. Jamming would have placed more lives at risk, while alerting Pakistani authorities should the Air Traffic Controllers have panicked. Pakistan was not informed simply because it was not trusted by the US. And after this raid, it is highly unlikely that trust would suddenly mushroom.

Trust comes from being able to tango together. Which is not the case between Pakistan and the US, Afghanistan or India. And this lack of trust keeps the people of Pakistan hostage to the vivid imagination, off the wall conspiracies and the skullduggery long practiced by their Army and its intelligence agencies. The institutional development of Pakistan has been held hostage by the machinations of the military. The US has participated in this decline for the longest time and continues to do so.

Post-Osama the first Pak-US meeting involves Sen. John Kerry and the Army Chief. Rubbing the point to the people that foreigners respect the Army more than they do the civilian authorities. Government of India, unfortunately, has deemed this policy makes eminent sense and has encouraged its High Commission to open talks with the military leadership in Pakistan. Civilians have to be strengthened in Pakistan, not a military that has brought much misery and shame to the country. If that were the policy from the beginning there would never have been a home for Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

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inally the Americans have come to realise that Pakistan has been “stringing them along” about the presence on its soil of the most wanted terrorist, Osama bin Laden. In fact the Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence has been shifting him and his wives and children from one safe house to another ever since he had to flee Kabul in the face of the massive retaliation by coalition forces for the 9/11 attack on the twin World Trade Towers in New York and the Pentagon in Washington DC. Pakistan tried to make out that Osama bin Laden was killed in the bombardment of the Tora Bora caves so that the US would give up the chase and he could live in peace in Pakistan to plan more devastating strikes against the US. Such was the extent of Pakistani perfidy that for some years prior to midnight strike on the mansion in Abbottabad the US had been developing its own intelligence on the whereabouts of wanted terrorists in the Afghanistan-Pakistan salient. That is how they almost got the Al Qaeda number 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri when he came to attend a meeting in a village near the border. That is how, too, they got Baitullah Mehsud when he came to meet his wife in his father-in-law’s house. Pakistan has been trying to get the US to stop the drone attacks but Washington has had the good sense not to bend to this obvious double-dealing.

ANNOUNCES JULY 2011 AS SPECIAL I S S U E O N

Disaster Management

Focusing on CBRN threats, preparedness and management India's disaster management structure Global disaster trends etc. ...

When Americans woke that May morning to learn that Osama bin Laden had been found and killed in one of the most important cantonment towns in Pakistan there was disbelief and consternation: Pakistan had lied to America all these years even as it was milking it for billions of dollars while pretending to cooperate in the Global War On Terror (GWOT)! All the while it was sabotaging and undermining US efforts to get those who perpetrated 9/11 and bring them to justice! American lawmakers have moved a bill in Congress to ban all aid to Pakistan and I believe that it is time the US stopped Pakistan from treating it like a moron. I very strongly believe that if the US shuts off all aid to Pakistan, global terrorism will come to a screeching halt within a year. China has been supporting Pakistan in its perfidy in the hope that the US will bleed itself economically so that it no longer can be considered a Super Power. Then, China hopes to exert its hegemony and dominate the world. US President Barack Obama has correctly assessed the China-Pak gameplan and that is why, the moment US intelligence agencies were able to identify the person in the mansion in Abbottabad he handed over Osama’s death warrant to the US Navy SEALs. Now Obama needs to do something about Pakistan itself. Both the Kerry-Lugar-Breman Act and the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act of 2009 contain safeguards to ensure that American aid is not misused or misappropriated and that the US is getting value for money. Empowered though it is, the Obama administration is hesitating to take the extreme step obviously in the hope that Pakistan will deliver on its commitment to fight terrorism in concert and in cooperation with other members of the world community. That it has not done so has become painfully obvious to everyone. It has become as clear as day that no matter how much money the US pours into Pakistan, Rawalpindi where the General Headquarters of the Pakistan Army is situated, will not raise a finger against those who are to help Pakistan regain its strategic depth in Afghanistan and lay the foundations of an Islamic Caliphate where the crowning policy would be jihad and wanton violence. Washington needs to be reminded that it has little time to waste because the next election season is round the corner. Obama has the enemy on the back foot. Will it be prudent to let him get away? It is time to make Pakistan fulfil its commitments in full measure. Jai Hind!

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

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contents OSAMA BIN LADEN SPECIAL ISSUE June 2011

contents

Vo l u m e 2 I s s u e 9 J u n e 2 0 11

A R T I C L E S

whither global jihad?

Lt. Gen. (Retd.) V. K. Jetley

impact on India

12 18 22 26 30 36 42 46 50 56

for online edition log on to: www.dsalert.org

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

Pakistan: a haven for fugitives?

lessons from operation Osama

hack the hand that rocks the jihadi cradles 88 Osama still in the bin!?!

Vice Adm. (Retd.) Venkat Bharathan

Cecil Victor

Osama gone ... now the nukes?

Praful Adagale

Dr. Tej Pratap Singh

detox Pak army and ISI

Al Qaeda in India: past, present and future 74

Brig. (Retd.) Gurmeet Kanwal

Col. Rajinder Singh

impact on global geopolitics

Joginder Singh, IPS (Retd.)

Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Sheru Thapliyal

operation Osama: an ISI set-up?

Al Qaedaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s global network

Dr. Manpreet Sethi

Dr. Rajendra Prasad

implications for India

Brig. (Retd.) Rahul Bhonsle

Manvendra Singh

global war on terror: post Osama

American vengeance!

Dr. Venkat Lokanathan

Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Afsir Karim

operation neptune spear

Brig. (Retd.) Chitranjan Sawant

Lt. Gen. (Retd.) O. P. Kaushik

impact on Pakistan

India is capable too! Lt. Gen. (Retd.) V. G. Patankar

Dr. Ved Pratap Vaidik

use Chanakyan tit for tat

Dr. Rajiv Nayan

Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Dr. G. D. Bakshi

Afghanistan after Osama

Pak nukes vulnerability

stop funding Pakistan: for terror free world 96 Pawan Agrawal

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DSALERT June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

Except in the Pakistan-Afghanistan salient which has long been considered to be the cradle of Islamist fundamentalism the death by surgical strike by US Navy SEALs of the charismatic Osama bin Laden has produced but sporadic demonstrations and slogan shouting. Inside Pakistan the strike against the Frontier Constabulary training centre was horrendous even by Al Qaeda standards. This was followed up by other acts of terrorism, the most dramatic one being the attack on the Naval base at Karachi on 22/23 May where the militants were successful in destroying two surveillance aircraft and killing 10 security personnel. More such strikes can be expected in this region but whether these will have a ripple effect over the rest of the Muslim world is too early to tell. One thing is clear, the upheavals in the oligarchies of North Africa and Middle East have not shown signs of being dominated by Islamist tendencies of the Osama kind. Having said that the role and responsibility of the Pakistan army in being unable to protect its mentor and its own establishments could well invite more reprisals in the near future.

Lt. Gen. (Retd.) V. K. Jetley

While Osama bin Laden has been engaged in “jihad” since he was 22 years old, he came into the limelight only after the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York, were reduced to rubble on 9/11 by Al Qaeda militants, ostensibly at his behest. Since then Osama got labelled as the most wanted terrorist in the world and the United States of America spent 10 long years and countless billions of dollars to hunt him down.

uring this period, Osama bin Laden acquired for himself a fearsome reputation of being an evil genius and an astute strategist capable of masterminding the most diabolical plots to create terror anywhere in the world. His ire was basically directed at the USA and the rest of the Western world . Euphemistically he called his fight against the Western world jihad. India was also in his cross-hairs and he was actively contemplating unleashing his “Mujahideen” or holy warriors on India, however, thankfully this did not come to pass because of the immense and constant pressure exerted on him by the USA and their allies post 9/11.

Profiles of bin Laden Until his death at the hands of the SEALs of the US Navy on 01 /02 May 2011, he had a larger than life image of being a person in complete control of himself and his evil empire. However, as per Munir Ahmed and Sebastian Abbot of Associated Press, Pakistan’s military

paints a far different picture than the United States of Osama bin Laden’s final days: not the terror mastermind still trying to strike America, but an aging terrorist hiding in barren rooms, short of money and struggling to maintain his grip on Al Qaeda. Disputes over money between him and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, led the group to split into two factions five or six years ago, with the larger faction being controlled by Al-Zawahiri. The Pakistani military officers who gave this information on conditions of anonymity, did not provide the source of their information. The Americans however, paint a different picture of him. According to them, from the videos purportedly captured by them from bin Laden’s hideout, it appears as if he was a narcissistic man who used to dye his beard in order to project a youthful image on the various videos. He was also unsure of himself in that he used to rehearse his speeches in which he often flubbed his lines. That notwithstanding, he was in the process of finalising a plan to attack the

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

American rail system. If some of what the Pakistanis claim is true, then it is fair to assume that perhaps bin Laden was losing his hold over Al Qaeda. On the other hand, if we were to go by what the Americans have stated, then the conclusion is that he was very much in control of the situation.

Relation Whatever was the truth, it is of no consequence now as Osama is dead. “The King is dead”, is it “Long Live the King”? To answer this question, we need to take a look at the manner in which the Al Qaeda network and the terrorist organisations associated with it take this news, their capabilities and weaknesses and as to whether or not any of them is likely to retaliate. Of equal importance will be the issue of who succeeds him and the psyche of his successor and the reaction of the Islamic world to the news of his death. Al Qaeda, Arabic for “the Base,” was founded by Osama bin Laden in

whither global jihad? the late 1980s, with the express aim of ridding Muslim countries of what he called the profane influence of the West and replacing their governments with fundamentalist Islamic regimes. From its humble origins in the late eighties, Al Qaeda has grown phenomenally. Its popularity peaked post 9/11 when it succeeded in taking by surprise the sole super power of the world and humbling it by the devastating strike on the twin towers of the World Trade Center. A question often asked is how big is the Al Qaeda? An exact answer to

that is difficult to give as the Al Qaeda is decentralised. Estimates range from several hundred to several thousand members. The so called victory of 9/11 boosted the image of the Al Qaeda in the eyes of other terrorist organisations, which got attracted to it like iron filings to a magnet. These terrorist organisations are widely dispersed, spreading from North Africa to South East Asia and include the Middle East, South Asia and Central Asian Republics. A quick assessment of terrorist organisations connected to

or associated with the Al Qaeda, their strengths and weaknesses and their possible reaction to the assassination of bin Laden will be in order at this stage as it will give us an insight as to whether such organisations are motivated enough to plot revenge for bin Laden’s death and if so will they do it in conjunction with Al Qaeda or at their own accord. Lastly, it may even give us an insight into who will give strategic direction to this organisation in the future.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA g) Jaish–e-Muhammad operating in Kashmir and Afghanistan

The Arab Spring clearly demonstrates that people are far more concerned about identifying and rectifying their internal inadequacies which have resulted in their having a miserable existence, rather than seeing their condition as being a result of “Western Imperialism.” Common people all over the world have realised that their everyday problems cannot be resolved by adopting extremist ideologies. In fact, they are aware that such ideologies exacerbate their problems instead of solving them and that they should hence be abjured and therein lies a radical change from the ideology of hatred and violence. However, it may be difficult to convince hard core militants amongst them, who have been thoroughly brainwashed about the “threat to Islam”, to totally eschew violence

h) Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan i) Egyptian Islamic Jihad operating in Egypt j) Islamic Fighting Group operating in Libya k) Jemaah Islamiya South East Asia

m) Armed Islamic Group Operating in Algeria n) Tehreek-e-Taliban or the Pakistani Taliban operating in Pakistan

Iranian affiliation Most of these groups share Al Qaeda’s Sunni Muslim fundamentalist views.

The known terrorist organisations connected with Al Qaeda are as follows: a) Jama’at al Tawhid wal Jihad (AQI) operating in Iraq b) Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) (formely Salafist Group) operating in Algeria c) Islamic Army of Aden (AQAP) operating in Yemen d) Hezbollah operating in Lebanon

f) Lashkar-e-Toiba Kashmir

operating operating

l) Abu Sayyaf Group operating in Malaysia and the Philippines

Affiliated groups

e) Afghan Taliban Afghanistan

operating

in in

Some experts feel that Al Qaeda, after the loss of its Afghanistan base, may be increasingly dependant on sympathetic affiliates to carry out its agenda. Post 9/11, Jama’at al Tawhid wal Jihad, also known as AQI, submitted to the authority of bin Laden, even though it commanded significantly larger numbers of cadre than the Al Qaeda. The US is of the opinion that Al Qaeda Iraq (AQI) “remains Al-Qaida’s most visible and capable affiliate and that AQI has helped it to energise the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives. Although weakened, the AQI group is quite capable of launching high profile attacks.” However, the reality is that AQI still remains limited to the North Western corner of Iraq and has shown no inclination of launching attacks even regionally leave alone internationally.

Algerian chapter Further, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which is based in Algeria, is supposedly one of Al-Qaeda’s most robust affiliates. Formerly known as the Salafist Group for Call and Combat, AQIM merged with Al Qaeda in September 2006 and broadened its target list to include US, UN and other Western countries.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

Mohammad Atef, into the top echelons of Al Qaeda. Zawahiri and EIJ extremists joined with bin Laden as they became the targets of Egyptian anti-terrorism campaigns. Members of EIJ, known for skills such as weapons training and strategic military planning, were ideal additions to the ranks of Al Qaeda. The EIJ receives most of its funding from Al Qaeda beginning in 1998 and the groups merged in June 2001. With the possibility of Zawahiri taking over reins of Al Qaeda, EIJ will become the strongest supporter of Al Qaeda.

However, AQIM has largely remained locked in local dynamics and has even refrained from reaching out to its Moroccan and Libyan counterparts.

Yemeni connection The exception is Yemen, from where Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has enthusiastically embraced a global agenda and launched several foiled strikes on American targets. A key figure in Yemen is Anwar al-Awlaki, a US-born cleric with a large international following. The resurgence of AQAP since 2006 is seen as a regional security challenge as it seeks to destabilise the Al Saud regime in Saudi Arabia.

Sunni-Shia combine Terrorism experts are of the opinion that Al Qaeda which is basically a Sunni organisation had stepped up its cooperation on logistics and training with the Hezbollah, a radical Lebanese militia drawn from the minority Shia sect of Islam. This is a cause for concern as it speaks of a wider base for Al Qaeda. Mullah Mohammed Omar, the leader of the Afghan Taliban, has considerable hold over his cadre. Osama bin Laden tried convincing him and his followers to embrace the global agenda but succeeded only marginally. However, post bin Laden’s death and if the US withdraws from Afghanistan in the near future as promised by President Obama, Mullah Omar will have to take steps to adjust to the dynamics of the changes brought about by this and, in all probability, concentrate the Afghan Taliban to consolidate its hold on the country. The Afghan Taliban may therefore curtail its activities and not be embracing an international agenda of terror. Pakistan Taliban is an amalgamation of seven armed groups who are pro-Taliban. They mainly operate from the Pakistan Afghanistan border areas, although, the interest of many of these groups has shifted to J&K, India and Afghanistan. Out of the group of seven, the prominent ones are the JeM, LeT, Hezb and HuM. The major aim of this group is to see the imposition of Sharia law. The Tehrik-i-Nifaaz-Sharia-Muhammadi (TSNM) which went to Afghanistan

in 2001 to help the Afghan Taliban fight the US and the Coalition Forces has now been displaced by one of its offshoots viz. the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or Pakistan Taliban Movement. Pakistan Taliban is the group that has been most active post Osama bin Laden. The Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT, the army of the pure) have waged jihad for almost two decades against India in Kashmir. It is presently in the throes of fierce disputes and infighting, with the hardliners favouring waging war against the Pakistani government against those who desire to remain close to the Pakistani security establishment. It is felt that the LeT is likely to remain “localised” at best as they do not appear to have any international agenda. The Jaish-e–Mohammed (JeM), also known as the Army of Mohammed, is an extremist group based in Pakistan. It was founded by Masood Azhar in early 2000. The basic aim of this group is to unite Kashmir with Pakistan and to expel foreign troops from Afghanistan. The JeM is banned in Pakistan but this has not deterred it from operating in J&K, India. However, since 2008 it has shifted its attention to Afghanistan to wage war against USA and the Coalition forces with a view to throw them out. A ruthless organisation which has several hundred armed supporters, it is capable of taking the Al Qaeda’s “war” forward but is likely to remain localised in Pakistan, Kashmir and Afghanistan.

Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan also known as IMU, Islamic party of Turkestan, Islamic Movement of Turkestan was created in 1990’s by Juma Namamgani and Tahir Yuldosh, head of the Adolat (Justice) Party. IMU’s stated goal was the “establishment of an Islamic state with the application of the Sharia” in Uzbekistan. By the end of the 1990s, the IMU had relocated to Afghanistan. The IMU suffered heavy losses when the US invaded Afghanistan in October 2001, including the death of Namangani. IMU members fight alongside the Taliban and Al Qaeda against coalition and Pakistani forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Senior IMU leaders have held positions in the Al Qaeda hierarchy. Sources of funding include drug trafficking and donations from sympathisers and Al Qaeda. IMU leadership is committed to Al Qaeda’s ideology of global jihad and continued anti-Western and antiIsraeli rhetoric. The strength of the IMU is approximately 500, with members located in South Asia, Central Asia and Iran. IMU is now fighting in support of the Afghan Taliban and other Islamic groups against the Afghan government and international military forces in Afghanistan. Egyptian Islamic Jihad or EIJ is connected with Al Qaeda because bin Laden’s terror network grew in part out of Egyptian extremist groups and many of Al Qaeda’s leaders are Egyptians. Osama bin Laden inducted two leaders of Egyptian Islamic Jihad, Ayman al-Zawahiri and the late

Jeemah Islamiya or JI is a terrorist organisation with a jihadist vision is keen to establish an Islamist state in the region, probably encompassing Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the southern Philippines and southern Thailand. Group factions differ over how to achieve this goal. A minority group, led by Hambali, is interested in focusing on a broader anti-Western agenda similar to Al Qaeda’s, opposing this faction is a majority group within JI, depicted as the “bureaucrats,” that sees these tactics as undermining its preferred, longer term strategy of building up military capacity and using religious proselytisation to create a mass base sufficient to support an Islamic revolution. (Source: CRS Report for Congress, Terrorism in Southeast Asia, updated February 7, 2005.)

Osama’s successor Let us now make an educated guess about who is likely to succeed bin Laden and what the psychological profile of the person is, for this will give us an idea of the shape of things to come in the future. There are two likely contenders for this post, the front runner being Ayman al-Zawahiri, the head of Egyptian Islamic Jihad, who, as has been mentioned earlier, teamed up with Osama and created Al Qaeda and was thought to be Al Qaeda’s ideological adviser. He has effectively been the operations head of Al Qaeda for quite some time now. A personality study was done by Aubrey Immelman and Kathryn Kulhmann of Saint John’s University and the College of Saint Benedict in June 2002 based on information collected from media reports and synthesised into a personality profile. According to this assessment

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

Ayman al-Zawahiri’s personality traits show “antagonistic negativism, single-minded commitment to a cause, inflammatory rhetoric and forceful persuasiveness—qualities instrumental in Osama bin Laden’s insidious campaign to propagate diabolical enemy images of the West as a catalyst for incubating a political culture contrived to inculcate religious extremism in the Islamic world.” The other contender is Abu Yahya alLibi, who is a Libyan who was captured in 2002 and imprisoned at Bagram, Afghanistan, by the US. His escape in 2005 from the Bagram prison has become legendary in jihadist circles. He is regarded by some experts as a top strategist and a theological scholar, arguing that his religious scholarship makes him one of the most effective promoters of global jihad. Jarret Brachman, a former analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency, told the New York Times that Al-Libi “has become the heir apparent to Osama bin Laden in terms of taking over the entire global jihadist movement.“ He is also aided by his charisma and his appeal as a religious scholar and a warrior. Al-Libi is able to combine a sarcastic, biting wit with a thematic cohesion that makes his words and ideas persuasive. Moreover, his speeches are concrete, tied to news and events that are of practical significance to his considerable audience. Al-Libi’s speeches and writings will help to shape the next generation of jihadists. While he may not instruct in specific military tactics or bomb-building techniques, he equips terrorists and insurgents with unwavering resolve, spiritual guidance and absolute belief in the urgency of their mission. These cannot be easily shut down by pure force.” (Extracted from Profile of an Ideologue, Abu Yahya al-Libi , by Daveed Gartenstein - Ross and Cindy D. Tan of Center for Terrorism Research, Foundation for Defense of Democracies dated 16 October 2008). Other important leaders are Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, an Egyptian, who is an original member of Al Qaeda’s leadership council and was an adviser to bin Laden for more than a decade. Then there is Saif al-Adel, an

Egyptian, who is rumoured to be under house arrest in Iran. Surprisingly, despite the “high profile” of the others like Zawahiri and Al-Libi, Adel has recently been appointed as the interim leader of Al Qaeda operations. Whether he eventually takes over permanently as the leader is anybody guess. The Jordanian radical Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who was killed in a US airstrike near Baghdad in 2006 is believed to have been succeeded by Abu Ayyub al-Masri as AQI leader. In North Africa, AQIM is headed by explosive expert Abdelmalek Droukdel. The Yemeni branch of Al Qaeda is run by Nasser al-Wahishi, a Yemeni citizen and former secretary to bin Laden. The important point to note is that bin Laden’s death barely leaves “affiliate groups” bereft of a leader as most of these groups had parted company, organisationally and ideologically, with Al Qaeda’s central leadership a long time ago and each group has a leader of its own. What will make a difference is who will succeed bin Laden permanently.

Reactions to Laden’s death Expectedly, the most virulent reactions to bin Laden’s death came from Pakistan, the worldwide hotbed of all terrorist activities. Immediately after his death, a rally was organised in Kuchlak, Baluchistan province by the pro-Taliban Jamiat-Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), where a crowd numbering approx 500 shouted “Long Live Osama” and torched a US flag. The protesters took to the streets to pay “homage” to bin Laden and called for a holy war against America. Abdul Qadir Looni, a senior JUI leader, addressing the rally said “Osama’s services for Muslims will be remembered forever.” He challenged the greatest Satan and usurper America and sent a wake up call to Muslims across the globe. Hafiz Fazal Bareach, a former federal senator and senior party leader, said that the killing of bin Laden would create thousands of others like him. “One Osama has been martyred and now thousands of Osamas will be born, because he created a movement against anti-Muslim forces which is not dependent on personalities.” Pakistan’s

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

largest religious political party Jamaat-e-Islami called for protests across the country to denounce the US operation that killed bin Laden. There is a school of thought that opines that if such demonstrations continue, there is a possibility that bin Laden’s death is likely to spur all the jihadis that worked under him and those that sprang up inspired by him, to undertake violent reprisal attacks against US and Pakistani targets in the immediate future. Bill Roggio, counter-terrorism analyst and editor of The Long War Journal said, “I expect Al Qaeda and allied terror groups to strike at both US and Pakistani targets for the death of bin Laden. We should expect these attacks to occur as soon as possible as Al Qaeda will want to exact revenge and change the narrative of a strategic setback due to the death of their leader.”

Pakistan attack While this article was being written, came in news of a horrific act of revenge by the Pakistan Taliban on 13 May 2011. Two suicide bombers of this group blew themselves up outside the training centre of the Frontier Constabulary in Northwest Pakistan, killing 80 persons including recruits and injuring another 120. “We have done this to avenge the Abbottabad incident,” said Ahsanullah Ahsan to The Associated Press in a phone call. Incidentally, he claims to be a spokesman for the Pakistan Taliban. This act of revenge by the Al Qaeda linked group has sent a grim message of the intent of the various militant groups, especially in Pakistan. Upto 24 May 2011, there have been eight incidents of terrorism. All of them have been committed in Pakistan by the Pakistani Taliban. These are briefly: an attack on a mosque on 02 May at Charsadda, leaving 4 dead; opening of fire on morning walkers on 06 May in Quetta, leaving 10 dead; the 13 May incident on the frontier constabulary leaving 80 dead and 120 wounded; gunning down of a Saudi consulate officer in Karachi on 16 May by gunmen on motorbikes; the attack on a security check post in Peshawar by over 100 terrorists on 18 May, leaving 2 dead, the terrorists lost 20 dead; the attack on US consulate vehicles in Peshawar on 20 May, leaving 1 dead

and 10 injured; the blowing up of a NATO oil tanker in North Western Pakistan on 21 May, leaving 15 dead and the storming of the Pakistan Naval base in Karachi on 22/23 May where the militants destroyed two very costly surveillance aircraft, caused heavy damage to the base and left behind 10 dead. More such incidents can be expected unless Pakistan security forces take strong steps to put a stop to such incidents. On the other hand, reactions elsewhere have been largely subdued. Muslims in Philippines were urged to look at the consequences of terrorism, instead of hailing Osama bin Laden, as a hero just because he was a fellow Muslim. “We call on our Muslim brothers and sisters to look clearly on what bin Laden has done. This affects the Philippines and the entire globe as well. He sinned and he has to be responsible for what he did,” spokesman Edwin Lacierda said. His statement came as around 100 Muslims marched from the Golden Mosque in Manila’s Quiapo district to the US Embassy on Roxas Boulevard in the city’s Ermita district to protest the supposedly improper burial of bin Laden by US authorities.

Subdued response In the Middle East, despite his being an Arab, the reactions to bin Laden’s death are somewhat muted. There has not been any great outpouring of grief, no beating of breasts, no burning of the US flags, no burning of effigies of Obama, no calls to jihad. It appears as if people have taken the news in their stride, almost as if they were expecting something like this to happen. Of late there has been a diminishing support to Al Qaeda’s violent and virulent jihad. According to a poll conducted by the Pew Research Center, in 2003, 70 per cent of the Palestinians polled felt that Osama’s Al Qaeda was ‘doing the right thing.’ However, eight years later in 2011, the percentage of Palestinians who felt this way had dropped to 30 per cent. In Turkey only 3 per cent felt that Osama was doing the right thing, while only 1 per cent felt that way in Lebanon. Clearly, Osama’s brand of jihad appears to be on the wane, at least in the Middle East.

The Jasmine revolutions The wave of democracy sweeping the Middle East as well as North Africa has not resorted to violent methods for protest. In fact their protests are in sharp contrast to Osama’s method of violence. So much so that even in civil strife torn countries like Libya, there has been no hostage taking or suicide bombing by rebels facing a despotic ruler. The pro-democracy movements have been unique in that they are not headed by clerics and other males, but have a fair share of women and children in their ranks. The Arab Spring clearly demonstrates that people are far more concerned about identifying and rectifying their internal inadequacies which have resulted in their having a miserable existence, rather than seeing their condition as being a result of “Western Imperialism.” Common people all over the world have realised that their everyday problems cannot be resolved by adopting extremist ideologies. In fact, they are aware that such ideologies exacerbate their problems instead of solving them and that they should hence be abjured and therein lies a radical change from the ideology of hatred and violence. However, it may be difficult to convince hard core militants amongst them, who have been thoroughly brain-washed about the “threat to Islam”, to totally eschew violence.

Organisational future The cloak of invincibility that shrouded bin Laden during his lifetime has fallen away following his death and his demise will serve as a deterrent for many would-be radicals inspired by his notional invincibility, argues Jon Lee Anderson of the New Yorker. “Such vertical, quasi-religious death cults always rely upon the leader, because the leader’s survival is the key to perpetuating the belief that utopia is possible,” he says. As has been mentioned earlier, bin Laden’s death also comes amid pro-democracy uprisings across the Arab world that some analysts say have discredited Al Qaeda’s ideology. But some experts express caution. One such expert feels that, “It is a milestone, not a turning point, in what remains an ongoing struggle without a foreseeable end.”

As a precautionary measure, the US has “tightened up” security in all its embassies all over the world to pre-empt retaliation from the Al Qaeda, the immediate possibility of which, outside the Afghanistan-Pakistan theatre, at this stage does not appear too great. However, given Al Qaeda’s global reach and strong networks it is bound to strike soon. While ideally Al Qaeda would like to strike in the US, this has proven difficult due to the geographical advantage that the USA enjoys and the tight security measures adopted by them. It is therefore more likely that US interests overseas, as well as the Pakistani government, will be the primary targets. This assumption has proven correct so far. In the end, it is felt that the death of bin Laden will not bring global terrorism to an end. His philosophy of hatred for the West and for all others who do not acknowledge the superiority of Islam and submit to it, will continue to sustain the movement conceived and inspired by him. Since many of the terror organisations affiliated to the Al Qaeda are located in Pakistan and Afghanistan, acts of retribution and revenge will initially be directed against the US and Pakistani interests in this region. In due course of time, when the euphoria of having killed the Number One enemy dies down and complacency sets in, the chances of revenge attacks elsewhere in the world will become a possibility. The only silver lining in this dark cloud of the future appears to be the relatively peaceful movements for democracy in the Middle East. If these succeed and bring with them the benefits that come with it, it may dissuade disgruntled youths from joining terrorist groups and this in turn may act like a dampener to the designs of hard core terrorists. The writer retired as Master General of Ordnance, Army Headquarters. A fourth generation officer, who was commissioned into the Infantry in 1965. During 40 years service in the Indian Army he has held various prestigious command and staff appointments which include command of a Brigade deployed in the highest battlefield in the world, a division in the desert and a corps in active insurgency areas. He retired as Master General of Ordnance. As UN Force Commander in Sierra Leone November 1999 to October 2000. He executed the highly acclaimed "Operation Khukri" which broke the back of the rebels.

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endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

There have been several comments made by persons in high places in India about what we can and what we will not do in the Pakistani terrorism context. Both the pros and cons tend to militate against a clarity of national response. It could invite an escalation of terrorist strikes against an India that looks woolly-headed. India would do well to read carefully and prepare itself to react swiftly to the counterarguments posted in a court in Brooklyn. Pakistan has put it bluntly that if the ISI bosses are indicted for the Mumbai attack it would mean “adding gasoline to fire”. While no tall claims need be made or options foreclosed adequate preparedness must be made for graduated responses that will make it clear to the world that anyone allowing their territory to be used to target India would suffer the consequences even if they deny involvement till they are blue in the face.

ost 9/11 the Americans launched a relentless manhunt for bin Laden, the mastermind of the terrorist outrage that had cost over 3,000 lives in New York. Ten years later, painstaking intelligence operations tracked bin Laden down through his courier to Abbottabad where Laden was ensconced in a grand three storeyed mansion just 800 m from the Pakistan Military Academy Kakul. He had been living in comfort for the last five years as a valued guest of the ISI. He was safely ensconced between the Baluch Regimental Centre and the PMA Kakul. Prof. Hoodaboy has said that Osama was the golden goose that the Pak military- ISI Complex wanted to encash at the appropriate time to wrest huge US concessions on Kabul and Kashmir. The Americans however got to their quarry first.

Surgical strike On 02 May 11, Op Geronimo – a surgical strike was launched that has now become a textbook model for Special Forces the world over. Two MH 60R Black Hawk helicopters modified for radar stealth and rotor noise reduction (by tamping the Blade Vortex Interaction), took off from the Jalalabad Air Base in Afghanistan. They were accompanied by two CH-47 Chinook Helicopter loads of back up forces in case the SEALs of the Naval Special Warfare Development Group (Devgru- SEAL Team 6) got involved with the Pakistani Army during the operation. Doing nap of the earth flying through the low hills they exploited the known Pakistani radar coverage gaps. Electronic warfare assets (Growler F-18 Airborne Electronic Attack aircraft) were also pressed in

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Dr. G. D. Bakshi

to jam the few Pakistani radars that could detect this intrusion. The whole operation was over in 40 minutes. Osama bin Laden and three of his accomplices were killed. One MH-60 helicopter rotor hit the walls of the compound and could not take off. The SEALs destroyed this in situ and made good their escape with bin Laden’s dead body and a treasure trove of computer hard disks, pen drives, documents and CDs. It was a phenomenally successfully operation. The Pakistanis were told of this only once the SEALs had identified and killed bin Laden. This was to prevent any Pakistani reaction against the SEAL commandoes in their getaway mode. However, just in case the Pakistanis were still inclined to interfere, three American Carrier Battle groups were on standby (USS Carl Vinson and Enterprise in the Arabian sea and USS Ronald Reagan

impact on in the Indian Ocean). An E-8C JSTARs aircraft was aloft to provide command and control and ground surveillance of the Abbottabad area to monitor Pakistan Army’s reaction. Discretion obviously was the better part of valour and there was absolutely no reaction from the Pakistani Army or Air Force till the Americans were well out of their airspace. For 24 hours almost, the stupefied Pakistani establishment was at a loss for words. Then it issued a series of confusing and contradictory statements that clearly highlighted its

extreme discomfiture.

Clarity of intent Op Geronimo serves to highlight the glaring contrast in the American and Indian approaches to counter-terrorism. The Americans have a non-partisan consensus on such operations. The Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations relentlessly pursued their quarry for well over a decade. The Americans have a clearly articulated counter-terror policy which

states inter alia “When terrorists wanted for violation of US laws are at large overseas their return for prosecution will be a matter of the highest priority and shall be a continuing central issue in bilateral relations with any State that harbours or assists them”. It continues … “If we do not receive adequate cooperation from a State that harbours a terrorist whose extradition we are seeking, we shall take measures to induce cooperation.

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the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

Return of suspects by force may be affected without cooperation of the host govt.”.

Rejig counter-terror matrix Herein lies the primary lesson for India for its counter-terrorist operations. A Home Ministry list indicates that India’s 50 most wanted terrorists are ensconced in Pakistan. Pakistan began its asymmetric warfare offensive against India not in 1989 in J and K but 10 years earlier by promoting terrorism in the Punjab. For 30 years the Indian State has tamely surrendered the strategic and tactical initiative to Pakistan. It has eschewed all retaliatory options and hot pursuit and solely confined its operations

a ponderous mobilisation of the entire armed forces. By the time it was completed, the limited time window of launch had closed. Such a massive retaliation for a single terrorist incident always had the disadvantage of being considered a disproportionate and thereby an unjustified over-reaction. It put far too much of decision load on a risk averse political leadership. The obvious answer to a terrorist strike was not a limited / full scale conventional attack but a graduated response that commences with pinpoint and focused responses well short of full scale war – like precision air attacks, cruise missile attacks or pinpoint commando raids on the initiating terrorist HQ, personnel / infrastructure.

of terror. The sharp contrast in the American reaction to the killing of its citizens with the Indian response to the terrorist mayhem of 26/11, has generated considerable outrage and indignation amongst the Indian public.

Pak duplicity The simple question being asked is that if the Pakistani State can take US$ 20 billion aid from its US ally in the war against terror and yet brazenly give sanctuary to the most wanted criminal who killed 3,000 American citizens, how can it be relied upon to act against terrorists who target India? The Pakistani State has proved itself to be

power responses must set the stage for a limited war that seeks to further raise costs and ensure compliance. The matrix of initiatory response options could be as under: ■■ Precision air attacks: These can be mounted on the headquarters / training infrastructure of the terrorist group responsible for the strike or against key individuals involved. With its

probability of success. ■■ Special forces heliborne assaults: Indian Special Forces could very well mount precise and surgical operations to kill / capture key terrorist leaders and target HQ facilities especially as many of them are located close to the international border. The Indian armed forces have the requisite capabilities to conduct such attacks

■■ Escalation dominance: The probable Pakistani response to begin with would be “mirror imaging”they would try to retaliate within the limits to which India has breached the escalation threshold. This would leave the advantage with India - especially if air power and naval power have been employed to initiate the strikes. India has a marked edge in air and naval power over Pakistan. This will

The Cabinet Secretariat has its Establishment 22. The Home Ministry has milked the Army Special Forces to raise the NSG and placed them under a Police officer who usually knows very little about Special Forces operations and generally never rises up from the ranks of this force. Turf wars and intense competition are quite destructive of overall synergy. The need therefore is to create a Special Forces Command that skims the cream of this Special Forces zoo in India and combines tri-cap capabilities under a joint command that focuses on strategic level tasks under the PMO and NSA (through the HQ IDS) to defensive campaigns in its own territory. It took 10 years to quell terrorism in Punjab (where the terrain was flat and the communications infrastructure extensive). It took over 20 years and huge force levels to contain terrorism in J and K. While the rest of the world followed the “War against Terrorism” model of CT operations, India alone insisted on a ”criminal-justice” approach based upon laws enacted in the 19th century to deal with ordinary criminals. The US in contrast, had set up military tribunals to try such terrorists under stringent new laws designed to deal with the new threat.

Parakram fiasco The NDA regime had earlier responded with a “limited war” in Kargil when the Pakistani provocation crossed the conventional threshold. It employed two army divisions well supported by artillery and airpower to mass effects in the localised area. However in Op Parakram it failed to coerce Pakistan. It adopted an “all or nothing approach”, that entailed

UPA’s diffidence Instead of learning from the NDAs experience and seeking a non-partisan consensus across party lines, the UPA heaped ridicule on the Op Parakram Exercise. It loudly proclaimed that war was just not an option. In its two tenures it has displayed diffidence bordering on pusillanimity – its response to the mass casualty terrorist attack on Mumbai was zero in military terms. Its unseemly desperation to move on past this incident and resume peace talks with Pakistan was somewhat baffling. Unwittingly it has given the unfortunate impression that the Indian State shows scant and callous disregard for the loss of the lives of its ordinary citizens. Civilian losses seemingly, have no place in its matrix of cost-benefit calculations while deciding upon resuming dialogue with a Pakistan whose military-ISI complex was deeply complicit in the terrorist strikes on India. We have now resumed dialogue without Pakistan taking any concrete action whatsoever to bring the perpetrators of the Mumbai carnage to justice or dismantling the infrastructure

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

thoroughly duplicitous and unreliable. The military-ISI complex in Pakistan lies through its teeth and has repeatedly proved to be most untrustworthy. How can we brazenly ignore this reality and insist so dogmatically on our peace initiative which has once more been overtaken by events.

Indian options What then are the Indian response options to foreign instigated terrorism? Experts on low intensity conflict like Roger Trinquier, David Galula, John McCuen, Julian Paget and Frank Kitson have all unanimously insisted that “External involvement in internal conflicts must be deterred through offensive action”. What are the initiatory forms that this offensive action can entail? The aim must be to raise costs for the aggressor in a graduated manner that caters for the need for escalation dominance against a nuclear backdrop. The initial responses must be pin-point and focused and place the onus of any further escalation squarely on the aggressor. Should he choose to escalate further, air power / naval

SU-30s, Jaguar and Mirage 2000 aircraft and precision guided munitions, the Indian Air Force is highly capable of executing such precise attacks not just in PoK but anywhere in Pakistan. ■■ Naval cruise missile attacks: Should the terrorist facilities / leadership in Pakistan be located close to the sea board, the Indian Navy with its BrahMos cruise missiles could very well attack such targets in a precise and effective manner. ■■ Naval aviation strikes: Naval aviation in concert with the IAF’s SU-30s / Jaguars could engage such terrorist command and control nodes and significant leaders near the sea board with a very high

not only in PoK but equally across the international border. The advantage of such Geronimo style commando raids is that they can be very precise, they could get confirmatory intelligence that the targeted individuals have been eliminated and the levels of collateral damage could be less – provided the raiding force does not get seriously engaged with defending forces. ■■ Grey areas: The grey areas for all these options are the need for specific targeting intelligence and the chances of collateral damage to Pakistan’s civilian population. If targeting intelligence is precise, such collateral damage can be minimised. Indian intelligence agencies should be able to provide such precise intelligence.

only grow apace in the years ahead. The onus of escalation in this model is squarely placed on the aggressor. Pakistani counter escalation in fact could help India’s air power and naval power to set the stage for a limited war. This limited war should take the form of an air-land offensive designed not so much to capture territory but simply to raise costs for Pakistan by bringing to battle and degrading its operational and strategic reserves on Pakistan’s own soil. Such a limited war between the spectral ends of nuclear war and sub-conventional conflict is very much within the current capabilities of the Indian armed forces. In times to come such abilities will only grow and

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Covert vs overt action A strong and logical pitch has been made that India should go in for a tit for tat policy and respond in a covert manner using assets within Pakistan to do this job. This option has its difficulties in execution but is feasible. Deniability is inbuilt. The question however is of losing the moral high ground in this struggle against terrorist provocations. Such a response brings us down to the level of our adversary in moral terms. An overt response may carry the risk of escalation but permits us to retain the moral high ground and international sympathy. Legally it is covered by the right of hot pursuit. Let us therefore examine the overt option in greater detail.

Special forces command India has a plethora of Special Forces. The Special Forces of the Army alone have been increased to some 9,000. However these mostly provide “Ranger” type capabilities for actions in the Tactical Battle Area. They generally do not contribute to capabilities in the Delta Force or Green Berets league. The expansion in numeric terms has entailed dilution of quality and high tech resources. However the manpower is highly motivated and capable and some selected Special Forces units could pull off a Geronimo style operation if provided accurate intelligence. The Navy has its SEAL equivalent in the MARCOS and the Air Force has the Garuda compliment. Most of these are confined to tactical and at best operational art level tasks. There is little thought given to strategic tasking.

Impact on India The killing of Osama bin Laden is a major victory in the War Against Terror. He had become an iconic figure in the jihad pantheon and the elimination of such a charismatic and inspirational figure has tremendous psy ops (psychological operations) value and impact. The terrorism in Punjab was weakened greatly after the elimination of Jarnail Singh Bhindrawale (who had become an iconic symbol of that brand of terror). The Sikh terrorist movement had splintered repeatedly thereafter and been greatly debilitated. However it still took 6 to 7 more years of relentless military and police operations to defeat this movement in a decisive manner. Hence the elimination of bin Laden is a major blow. However the Al Qaeda per se has also become highly diffused and has morphed into a number of regional franchises like the Al Qaeda in Arabia, the Yemen and Somali chapters but far more dangerous are the Punjabi LeT, JeM and HuJI etc. which have State patronage in Pakistan. If Ilyas Kashmiri becomes the new head of Al Qaeda (Ayman Al Zawhari is regarded as too querulous and uncharismatic) the Al Qaeda focus on India will increase markedly. Al Qaeda per se was targeting America and Europe and their interests in Africa, Middle East and South East Asia. Its focus on India was only peripheral. Al Qaeda has been hit hard.

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It has morphed into franchises like the LeT and JeM that are almost entirely India-centric and are only now trying to target the USA and Europe and play a role in Afghanistan.

The punching bag syndrome Pakistan and the Al Qaeda had initially gone into a mode of shock and denial. Al Qaeda has now accepted the elimination of bin Laden as a fact and has been threatening revenge. The fact is that after 9/11 Al Qaeda has not been able to repeat a terrorist strike on the continental United States. American response has been robust and proactive. India has increasingly been turning into a soft and effete State that has reduced itself to the level of a terrorist punching bag. The threatened reprisals of the Al Qaeda may not ever reach American or European shores. India presents a far softer and more reachable target. It is refusing to react or retaliate in any manner to countless terrorist depredations. It would be very disconcerting if it invites the Al Qaeda’s reactions on to itself by presenting such a soft and easy target. We need to deter such attacks and the first steps towards deterrence lie in the creation of retaliatory capabilities that are credible and usable. These capabilities and intent have then to be clearly communicated to the adversary so that he can be deterred. Loud proclamations that war is just not an option and that unlike the USA we never retaliate, may be motivated by the noblest of intentions of promoting peace and amity. They could, unfortunately, end up inviting more attacks on the hapless Indian population. The way to hell is paved with good intentions. Being a liberal State does not imply reducing oneself to a pathetic punching bag for the release of terrorist angst!

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Should the enemy seek to escalate the conflict in terms of vertical / horizontal escalation, we should be fully prepared to launch an air-land offensive that seeks to bring to battle and degrade the enemy’s operational and strategic level reserves on his own soil and inflict substantial damage. It must target the ISI complexes that plan and execute the war of a thousand cuts against India and seek to destroy as much of the terrorist infrastructure as possible.

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become more potent. That should be a natural corollary of our impressive economic growth. However we need to rapidly translate economic power into usable military capabilities.

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The writer is a combat veteran of many skirmishes on the Line of Control and counter-terrorist operations in J&K and Punjab. He subsequently commanded the reputed Romeo Force during intensive counter-terrorist operations in the Rajouri-Poonch districts. He has served two tenures at the highly prestigious Directorate General of Military Operations. He is a prolific writer on matters military and non-military and has published 17 books and over 70 papers in many prestigious research journals.

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endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

Give what

the they

Afghans have

long

cherished—their neutrality and they know who their friends are and who their foe. They are a proud people and great warriors; that is

Islamic symbol

something that history has

The killing of Osama did not create same kind of euphoria in Afghanistan as we witnessed at the time of the demise of Taliban. There were no demonstrations in favour of the American action or against it as were reported from Pakistan. It does not mean that the people were indifferent to the killing of Osama. In fact, the non-Pashtun majority did express its joy because it hardly has any sympathy for the Taliban or Al Qaeda. The Pashtuns and many other ethnicities are so disgusted with the foreign military presence that they did not seem to be in mood to celebrate the American victory over Osama. Many a people thought that Osama, after all, fought for Islam and also for the independence of Afghanistan from foreigners. Although with the rise of the peoples movements in West Asia, the charisma of Osama was receding into the backwaters of Islamic world, he still was an enigma and the symbol of the resistance against the Western powers.

recorded down the ages. No foreign dynasty could curb

that

indomitable

spirit. Former British agent in Afghanistan Olof Caroe did inject an element of Pakistani

hegemony

Pak military discredited

self-destruction. Pakistan’s

As far as the government of Afghanistan is concerned, it did not hide its sense of deja vu at the killing of Osama. President Hamid Karzai’s point was reinforced that Osama was hiding in Pakistan and not in Afghanistan. The reported complicity of the Pakistani authorities in protecting Osama provided a new lease of trust to Karzai regime vis-a-vis the Americans. It has raised the level of self-confidence of the government of Afghanistan in the future dealings with the Taliban. If Al Qaeda leadership could be wiped off so smoothly, why not the same will follow in case of the Taliban. There is a deep inter-connection between the morales of the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan. If one goes up, the other goes down automatically. The Osama incident has exposed Pakistan thoroughly in the eyes of the world. Such a rude shock Pakistan got only after the creation of Bangladesh. This incident has completely shaken the Pakistani military-feudal complex. The impression went round the people of Pakistan that this complex is outrightly incompetent which could not protect Osama, who look refuge with it and the world at large found it to be a totally undependable ally. In their view Pakistan turned out to be a perfect cheat and a double-dealer. The American law-makers are so enraged by the Pakistani attitude that they have brought bills in the Congress to curb the American assistance to this dubious military-feudal complex.

survival could well depend

Not home yet

Afghanistan

when

wrote about whether Kabul would dominate Peshawar or

Peshawar

(would

dominate) Kabul in his book The

Pathans.

Pakistan’s

domination of Afghanistan has proved both shortlived and pyrrhic to the point of

on whether it will let Afghans be Afghans! 18

he killing of Osama bin Laden has dealt a very severe blow to the morale of the terrorists of all hues, whether they belong to Al Qaeda or the Taliban. Every one of them got a clear cut message that if Osama could be caught and killed they are the next one on the American anvil. However, it would be idle to pretend that the scourge of terrorism will disappear with Osama. Unlike the movement of Khalistan and the Tamil Eelam which lost their relevance after the killing of Bhindrewala and Prabhakaran, the ‘jihad’ led by Osama may survive him owing simply to the fact that it has assumed the proportions of a state without borders and at the same time it is decentralised. It has also become a source of an easy power and pelf. That is why it is too early to be convivial about Afghanistan.

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This changed scenario will bolster the leverage of the Afghans with the Americans. The American government seems to be more determined than before to put up a decisive fight against terrorism. The statements of Obama and Hillary Clinton make it

very clear. However a few Democratic lawmakers are arguing for getting rid of Afghanistan as early as possible. I am sure President Obama will not succumb to such pressures, especially after a successful punitive action against Osama. This action has provided a bright sheen to the dwindling Amreican image and has raised the political stock of Obama domestically. Of course, a prolonged war without any direction in Afghanistan may have an adverse impact on Obama’s next presidential election bid. This is because of his past clear commitment to end the war in Afghanistan and bring back the American soldiers home but a sudden slowdown in or a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan at this juncture may extend a new lease of life to the beleaguered terrorists. It might boomerang at the time of the election. A small terrorist incident on the American homeland may trigger an earth shaking reaction against Obama.

Afghanistan

after Osama

Dr. Ved Pratap Vaidik

Afghans a nation apart The elimination of Osama has provided several new opportunities to the US. First of all the US should let Karzai negotiate freely with the Taliban and proceed with the process of reconciliation. The Taliban are not as anti-American as the Al Qaeda. In fact the Americans had developed a kind of working relationship with the Taliban at the fag end of their regime. The so-called Taliban ambassador was in touch with the US government at Washington, DC. The Prime Minister of India has openly supported the Karzai regime on this issue during his latest visit to Kabul. In fact India was dead against talking to the Taliban because India mostly had to bear the brunt of Taliban in Kashmir and other places. The Taliban acted against India due to the pressure of Pakistan but at the same time, during their last days in Kabul the Taliban did approach India for formal recognition and before that for informal contacts. The Taliban ambassador in Washington, DC approached me in 1999, when I went to the UN as India’s official delegate. Many erstwhile Taliban leaders living in Kabul, Peshawar and other places are still in touch with me. While talking to them, I find that their main demand is the withdrawal of the foreign forces from Afghanistan. They don’t appear to me as bigoted jihadis. They argue their case very cogently and they always try to assure me that they are nobody’s agents. They are proud Afghans. Once they share power in Kabul, they will prove their complete independence from any foreign power. June 2011 Defence AND security alert

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This, perhaps, is true of all Afghan Taliban.

Metamorphosis? During five years of Taliban rule in Kabul despite the worst pressure from the Pakistani government, the proud Afghans did not recognise the Durand Line. The Pakistani embassy was besieged and attacked by the people in Kabul so many times during the Taliban regime. The Afghan people did not hesitate to express their resentment against Pakistan. The Taliban government had to depend on Pakistan's support for its survival but it always craved for its complete independence. The extraordinary income from the opium trade did provide them with a new leverage. They were about to chart a new foreign policy for themselves. The Pak-Afghan relations might have undergone a sea change had the Taliban regime survived in Kabul for a few more years. The Taliban and Al Qaeda do have a close relationship but we should not forget that they are two separate organisations with their own leaderships, agendas and policies. It is right time to plant a wedge between them and to tell the Taliban to protect their own interests first. The Taliban are also not a monolith. There are many factions among them. There is no use declaring all of them untouchables. In fact, some of the erstwhile prominent Taliban leaders have even joined the Reconciliation Council headed by the former President, Prof. Burhanuddin Rabbani who is a Farsi speaking non-Pashtun. There is a palpable resentment among the non-Pashtun population on the question of negotiating with the Taliban, who are mostly Pashtuns. This resentment has several reasons but it is a masterstroke on the part of Karzai that he appointed Rabbani as the Head of the Reconciliation Council, which will negotiate with the Taliban. This should be a foolproof guarantee for a no-nosense deal with the Taliban. Rabbani is also perceived as a tall Afghan leader free from any Pakistani influence. The Pashtuns are not a majority in Afghanistan but they are the largest ethnicity and they have been the arbiter of the fate of the throne of Kabul for the last 260 years. It augurs very well that Hamid Karzai, who is a Popalzai

Pashtun, is at the helm now. The fellow Pashtuns in the Taliban can trust him and some practical way can be found to bring them to the mainstream. The Americans are already talking to the Taliban clandestinely. The negotiations with the Taliban after Osama could be more meaningful and may yield quite positive results.

Terrorism is lucrative Even if there is some functional reconciliation between the Taliban and the Karzai regime, the woes of Afghanistan would not come to an end. The insurgency and terrorism have turned into a lucrative profession for several tribes and groups in Afghanistan. With the active support of many foreign networks the violent activities may continue unabated in Afghanistan. Many new organisations might crop up who will debunk the reconciliatory Taliban and launch a new offensive against the presence of foreign armies in Afghanistan. This new offensive might gain new credence among the people of Afghanistan. It may evoke the traditional Afghan hatred against the dominance of the foreigners. The patriotic fervour of ordinary people might paint even the reconciliatory Taliban as collaborators of foreign powers. They may be clubbed with Hamid Karzai as the new puppets. Even the successful reconciliation might prove to be futile.

Manpower intensive So, what is the solution? The only solution that I see, is to raise an army and police force of at least half a million at the earliest. A massive and quick training programme with adequate weaponry can take care of any violence generated from within or without. The ISAF forces are trying their best but they are unable to achieve any tangible result due to linguistic, cultural and other problems. The cost of this training programme by ISAF is enormous and these half-hearted efforts bring more shame than credit to the Western forces. India is the most appropriate country to accomplish this job in the shortest period and at negligible cost. It is now easy to transport thousands of trainers from Jaranj-Dilaram road, near the Iran-Afghanistan border if Pakistan does not allow its land routes to be used for this purpose. Even, Pakistan may be associated with this massive

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project but the Afghan government and the people have very little trust in the intentions of Pakistan. They are very conscious of the Pakistani dreams of making Afghanistan as their fifth province. They are extremely wary of the plan meant to use their country for providing the so-called ‘strategic depth’ to the Pakistani armies against India. In fact, Afghanistan’s deepest wish is to remain neutral and develop as a viable and peaceful State. Even if the Taliban regain power in Kabul, they will not concede the demand of Pakistan and would reject any overture which makes them a second fiddle of any country.

India’s role Here, the role of America becomes very crucial. The US has to persuade or pressurise Pakistan to let India raise an army for Afghanistan. The US should not only take upon itself the financial responsibility of this project, which is a fraction of its monthly drain on the war in Afghanistan but also be able to tell Pakistan that it is determined to do it even if Pakistan is not agreeable to it. Pakistan will have no option except to accede to the US request due to the atmosphere created in the post-Osama phase. Pakistan cannot afford to forego the American assistance of US$ 3 billion a year and earn its animosity at the same time. Though the Chinese government is keen to fish in the troubled waters of Afghanistan but it would not like to upset the applecart of its relationship with the US just for the sake of Pakistan. The Pakistani prime minister and the army and intelligence chiefs did try their best to persuade Hamid Karzai in Kabul, just a week before the killing of Osama, that he should seek new pastures for Afghanistan rather than depending solely on the US. Their advocacy for the Chinese protection did not cut much ice with Karzai but it must alert the US about the need of making Afghanistan stand on its own feet as far as its internal security is concerned.

Proud, independent people The hatred for foreign domination among the Afghans of all ethnicities is so deeply ingrained that even those who see lot of merit in the American presence in Afghanistan, start clapping when you ask for foreign troops withdrawal from Afghanistan. I had undergone this experience

last year while addressing a large elite gathering in Kabul to celebrate Badshah Khan’s birthday. The idea of prolonged presence of the US troops in Afghanistan sounds to the need of the hour today but if Afghanistan does not have its own strong army and police, it cannot survive as a nation-State. The armed gangs and volatile tribes will have an upper hand. The neighbouring forces would not sit idle. Afghanistan ultimately, will lose its present identity or suffer from continuous violence, coups and ethnic bloodbaths. The best course for the US is to see that the foreign forces are withdrawn from Afghanistan not in 2014 but much before that. May be in the next one year. It will brighten the chances of Obama’s return to the White House. It will be a huge relief for the gasping American economy with the debt burden of more than US$ 14 trillion.

Strengthen political edifice Apart from raising a strong national army and police force a viable political structure has to be evolved in Afghanistan, How can you run a modern State without the political parties? Afghanistan is not UAE or Saudi Arabia. It has a long tradition of having political parties and general elections. Elections they have even now but there are no political parties. The Afghan politics is like a roof without pillars. There is no direct bridge between the government and the governed. Only the bureaucracy is there but can you call it a bridge between the rulers and the people? It is also not clean and efficient. The same is the case with the judiciary. The parliament is very vocal and it does represent the people but there is hardly any synergy between the parliament and the government. The presidential system creates a constant deadlock between the government and the parliament on many major issues. The formal creation and recognition of political parties will provide a lot of strength to the self-dependent Afghanistan.

Curb opium smuggling If the large-scale recruitment of the youth for the national army is commenced, it will be a positive disincentive for unemployed and immature youngmen to join the ranks of Taliban. If you start plugging the sources of funding the Taliban,

you will have full control over the political system of Afghanistan. The main source of funding of the Taliban today is opium trade, smuggling and extortion. Many neighbouring and western elements are a party to this dirty game. If the Afghan government is determined to tackle this menace, the European powers, Iran and Russia will support it sincerely because they are the worst victims of this phenomenon. The drug money has created a parallel economy in Afghanistan which is the main source of corruption, terrorism and political destabilisation.

Return Afghan neutrality To assure non-interference and non-intervention in the internal affairs of Afghanistan on a stable basis a consensus must be evolved among the regional and global powers. The neighbours of Afghanistan, India and China included, along with the US and Russia can sit together and evolve a common agenda regarding Afghanistan. They should not only make generous commitments to assist Afghanistan rebuild itself but also guarantee its neutral status as it enjoyed for more than two centuries.

Don’t sideline Pakistan The entire plan presented here by me is not meant to sidetrack Pakistan. Pakistan is the closest and the most intimate neighbour of Afghanistan. By ignoring or belittling the importance of Pakistan, in no way you can have a stable Afghanistan. However, somebody has to argue with the Pakistani friends that main cause of Pakistan’s mess is its pernicious design of using Afghanistan against India. Pakistan did attain some success in its endeavour in the past. The Pathan tribals were recruited to march into

Kashmir in 1948 and the terrorists were unleashed during the last two decades on India. India remained India but this Pakistani design has degraded both Pakistan and Afghanistan to the point of a failed State. The sad outcome is that the ordinary people of these two of our neighbouring countries are bearing the real brunt and not the elites. They are suffering economically, socially and psychologically. Please visualise the day, when Afghanistan is stabilised and India is able to use the land routes to Central Asia through Pakistan and Afghanistan. It will bring unprecedented prosperity to all these three sister countries, which have been like a family since times immemorial. Afghanistan has been playing the most crucial geo-political role in shaping the destiny of Asia for centuries. Can we think of reviving the same role in the wake of passing away of Osama, the Prince of Terrorism into the annals of history? The writer is a renowned expert on Afghanistan. He is the only one among the top Indian experts on international affairs, who has studied at Kabul University, knows the languages of Afghanistan and has travelled extensively in that country. His PhD thesis (JNU): A Comparative Study of Afghanistan’s Relations with the USA and the USSR has won international acclaim, though it was written in Hindi, which ignited uproarious debates in the Indian Parliament 45 years ago. He has published two books and more than 80 articles and research papers on Afghanistan including a few in English, Russian and Persian. He has been in touch with almost all the Presidents, Prime Ministers and major factional leaders of Afghanistan throughout these years of turmoil. He is the former Editor of PTI-Bhasha and Nav Bharat Times. He has been a Senior Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) from 1981 to 83.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

Given the tight homeland security setup in place in the US and most countries of Europe the most likely place where terrorists would seek to wreak vengeance for the elimination of Osama bin Laden by US Navy SEALs in Abbottabad is India. Rather than being cowed by that prospect India must brace itself to retaliate in eye-for-an-eye manner inflicting proportionate damage to the Pakistan military establishment for being the mentor, protector and handler of the vast number of terrorist organisations that it has spawned inside Pakistan and around the globe. Being petrified by the presence of nuclear weapons and the threat of “First Use” only ensures that their deterrence is allowed to intimidate us. Time to turn the tables! 22

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

fter the elimination of Osama bin Laden, natural question in the mind of every Indian is: What impact will it have on India? Al Qaeda was founded by Laden in the year 1988 and soon established itself as the most dangerous, potent and destructive terrorist organisation in the world. Although its founder and inspirer is dead, the organisation is still active and has taken a resolve to revenge Laden’s death. There are groups and organisations in India which are nurtured and nourished by this notorious organisation.

India chapter Osama bin Laden had made an appeal to Islamic organisations of the world to render financial and physical support to Muslim militant tanzeems in Kashmir. Towards this end, he also organised a special training camp for approximately 700 Kashmiri militants in Sudan. These Kashmiri militants, on completion of their training, were accompanied by Sudanese jihadis who subsequently operated along with Kashmiri militants in perpetrating sabotage, murder, abduction and lawlessness in Kashmir Valley. It has also been revealed that commander of 313 Brigade of Al Qaeda, Kashmiri by name, was actively involved in planning, preparing the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai. Hence, interference by Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda in internal security of India and their open help and support to terrorist organisations in India has been going on since many years.

Use Chanakyan tit for tat

Lt. Gen. (Retd.) O. P. Kaushik

Al Qaeda with the active support and involvement of its affiliate, Lashker-e-Toiba (LeT), succeeded in creating agents in every province of India. Indian Muslims, specially with fundamentalistic attitude, were cultivated by them to work for them on regular salary. This has been revealed while interrogating captured terrorists and some of their supporters. When I was General Officer Commanding in the valley (Kupwara Sector), we had captured terrorists belonging to Sudan and more recently some foreign elements have been captured during encounters in the Kashmir Valley. These are the elements who had been trained in camps organised by Laden in Yemen, Somalia and Sudan. They were subsequently utiliased by Pakistan in organising training camps for creating problems in Jammu and Kashmir. I am of the view that with the death of Osama bin Laden, involvement of foreigners in actively collaborating with Kashmiri militants will get reduced. There are reports that training camps in Sudan and Yemen are closing down.

The network Indian intelligence agencies had been getting indications about active invidious associations developing between Al Qaeda and three militant organisations in India, namely Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad and Tehrik-e-Taliban. It is also believed that Al Qaeda agents, operational and active in India, are being provided financial help and their antiIndia activities being coordinated by these three organisations. There are 28 terrorist organisations in India that are on the payroll of Al Qaeda, prominent among them are Islamic organisations - Hizbul Mujahidin, Harkat-ul Ansar, SIMI (Student Islamic Movement of India) and two Islamic organisations in Kerala - Islamic Seva Sangh and Popular Front of India. Since Laden was the source of financial help to these organisations, it is likely that financial help which these organisations receive will get reduced considerably although it is not likely to dry up completely since chain of supply of this aid ran through the ISI and Pakistan military.

Increase in infiltration It is quite possible that with the death of Osama bin Laden, Al Qaeda and its prominent personalities will come under pressure. They will search new hideouts and safer havens. In their desperate endeavour to

escape, some of them may attempt infiltration into India. Under these circumstances, for next months infiltration across the borders is likely to increase. Particularly, sensitive leaders of Al Qaeda will be shifted, away from Pakistan and some safe places in the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) could be distinct possibility. India, therefore, needs to enhance and alert our surveillance on the borders and also carry out satellite survey of PoK. Terrorism in India is gradually becoming a commercial endeavour. Illegal trade in arms and ammunition has been going on in Kashmir, north-eastern states of India and northern districts of West Bengal and Bihar which are adjacent to Nepal. Narcotics sale is yet another big source of revenue for the terrorist and insurgent organisations. Terrorist organisations in India are also getting sponsored aid from abroad running into hundreds of crores. This help is a big attraction to continue the terrorist activities in India.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

Pakistan can also heighten their activities in conducting terrorist acts in India in a bid to divert their own people’s attention from deteriorating internal situation in Pakistan. Pakistan’s government and military are openly hand-in-glove with the Taliban. In fact without their support Taliban has no existence. With the impending withdrawal of the US and allied forces from Afghanistan, Taliban activities on India’s border are likely to get accelerated. There are reports about Pakistan military and Taliban’s Jallaludin Hakkani working on joint terrorist operations against India. The USA is aware of the jointness of effort, but again Pakistan is playing a bluff on them by stating that their effort is to dissuade Hakkani from operating against US in Afganistan. In fact sabotage activities in India may be their hidden agenda.

Lashkar in Asia Lashkar-e-Toiba had taken the responsibility from Al Qaeda to spread terrorism in Asian countries. With active support from Pakistan army and financial backing from Al Qaeda, LeT has become very active in the countries of South Asia, particularly India and her neighbours. It may attempt sabotage activities in India as a revenge for Osama’s killing and for this their well-trained cadre is widely established in India. Our intelligence agencies and, specially the IB will have to be extra alert to keep a check on saboteurs and their activities for next couple of months. Jamat-ud-Dawa, a terrorist organisation formed by Mohammed Hafiz Saeed, who had masterminded attacks on Mumbai on 26/11, is openly supporting Al Qaeda. This organisation is reported to have assisted bin Laden in taking shelter and hiding in Pakistan for all these years. Jamat had organised a prayer meeting on Laden’s killing. This terrorist group is reported to have created their agents and sympathisers in UP, Bihar, Bengal, Maharashtra and Kerala states of India.

Indian ocean region Al Qaeda in collaboration with Jamat-ud-Dawa and India-based affiliates of Jamat, had been making efforts to spread terrorism in Indian

Ocean region. Understanding had been reached among them that Al Qaeda will cover North African countries and South West Asia as also the Central Asian Republics and Sinkiang province of China. Jamat and their Indian affiliates, Hizbul-Mujahidin, Harkat-ul-Ansar, Islamic Sewa Sangh and Popular Front of India will have responsibilities in Pakistan, India and the SAARC countries. Indian terrorist organisations had been tasked to make in-roads into South-East Asia and establish links with Jemmah Islamiah-Hambali a terrorist outfit based in Indonesia and spread wings further into Malaysia, Thailand and south of Philippines. It is likely that Laden’s killing may lead to a coordinated effort by all these organisations to take revenge for Laden’s killing. Pakistan, India and Indonesia are more likely targets for such reprisals. These terrorist outfits have been operational on their own, for some years. Laden could not be present in every operational activity and, in any case, he had been on the run to save his life for the last 10 years from American resolve to get him dead or alive and had been shifting his bases from Afganistan to Waziristan to Karachi and eventually getting killed at Abbottabad by the US forces. All these years of his run, operations by Al Qaeda and affiliates continued unabated. His killing, therefore will have only a temporary effect. Activities of Al Qaeda will continue and countries like India, which are more vulnerable in this regard will have to be extra vigilant. After Osama’s killing, there is bound to be some change in the attitude of Pakistan sympathiser countries and specially the US and her western block allies. Likely impact will be felt on open and free aid in terms of weapons and monies that Pakistan has been getting although it is unlikely to dry up completely. This will have an effect on financial help that two dozen terrorist organisations, working in India, receive from Pakistan, its military and the ISI. In view of the circumstances discussed above, Laden’s killing may be a big success for the US President, it is ringing bells of new dangers for India. Our intelligence agencies will have to be extra alert. There is also an immediate need to ban all the terrorist organisations which are getting or

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

suspected of getting economic help and protection from Pakistan. It is also necessary that we demand from the US to apply pressure on Pakistan to hand over those terrorist leaders to India who have been demanded by India and are sheltered in Pakistan.

Indian surgical strikes Killing of Al Qaeda chief will create an international environment favouring much tougher steps against the terrorist organisations. India has been the greatest victim of the international terrorist organisations whose activities, at the behest of Pakistan, have resulted in over one lakh Indian citizens losing their lives. Pakistan is adamant in not handing over the Indian terrorists who took shelter in Pakistan in the aftermath of Mumbai blast of 1993 in which more than 300 people had died and Mumbai attacks on 26/11. Media echoed an opinion that if the US could eliminate their targets across seven seas why India cannot destroy the terrorists in their neighbourhood who have been provided safe havens by Pakistan. Temptation, undoubtedly is attractive and let me state, without reservation, that the Indian armed forces have the training and professional competence to carry out tasks of the type that the US Special Forces did in Abbottabad on 2 May, 2011. We, however, do not have leader of Obama’s strength and political will matching with the American resolve; otherwise, this nation would not have suffered for so long at the hands of sponsored terrorists who succeeded in killing more than one lakh Indians. Defence and diplomacy are intertwined. Defence can be used only by the strong against the weak. Under no circumstances could Pakistan resist the operation conducted by the US special forces in Abbottabad. In comparison to Pakistan, India is decidedly stronger. Our political leadership, however is extremely shy of nuclear weapons that Pakistan claims to have and threatens to use in the event their sovereignty is violated. We must, nevertheless, remember that nuclear weapons are not weapons of war. They are weapons of deterrence. No country will venture using them, as a reprisal, for small covert operation and let it be known that we are not a lesser nuclear power in comparison to Pakistan. Therefore, India has a choice of using defence to

eliminate terrorists who are sheltered in Pakistan. Government of India has to take a decision.

Chanakyan diplomacy So far, India has chosen to use diplomacy. For the last 22 years, we have been trying to persuade Pakistan to cooperate with us, but our efforts have yielded no results: On the contrary, Pakistan has viewed our diplomatic efforts as our weakness and has convinced herself that the Indian political leadership is not strong enough to go beyond the persuasion approach. But there are other portions of diplomacy which we have not explored. Diplomacy in ancient India, as enunciated by Chanakya, Manu and Vidur comprised of four parts, Sama, Dama, Bheda and Danda. The first part Sama means pure diplomacy to gain cooperation and avoid confrontation through negotiations. We have practised it over quarter of a century without getting any results. The second part is Dama which means bribery to achieve the aim, the US offered huge sums of money, attractive enough even to buy kings, to gain intelligence and whereabouts of Osama and, on an earlier occasion, of Saddam Hussain of Iraq and by spending that money they succeeded in eliminating both the targets. Pakistan is fertile field of bribeseekers who will be prepared to do the task for you and eliminate the targets provided you pay an attractive price for it. Why have we not tried this part of diplomacy? The third part – Bheda means threatening with dire consequences. In other words tit for tat. Pakistan is not at all a homogenous society. There are secessionist elements in all its four provinces. Internal situation of that country is getting destablished at an alarming pace. We need to add little fuel to that fire and that will bring Pakistan to its knees. We should so disturb her internal situation that they start begging for cooperation and negotiation. This will require strong political leadership which, sadly we do not have. The last part is Danda, which means use of armed force to inflict punishment. American surgical strike in Abbottabad has created an international environment in which India can unhesitatingly use other three parts of diplomacy, that is Dama, Bheda and Danda as her efforts

in implementing first part Sama, have miserably failed.

Support base Some steps need to be initiated immediately to get rid of Al Qaeda agents from our country. Soft and permissive attitude towards people collaborating with terrorism should be abandoned immediately and government must adopt professional and strict approach in dealing with them. Al Qaeda, LeT, Jamaat-ud-Dawa succeeded in infiltrating Indian society because of the help they received from the background supporters in India. Such supporters must be identified and action initiated against them. It will help in breaking of ideological motivation and dry up resources which these terrorist organisations have been enjoying in India. Strict checks need to be imposed on money, weapons and other resources coming from foreign terrorist organisations to the militant outfits in India. Our policies in this regard have been very slack and money to these organisations has been pouring in without any restrictions. Even flow of money from abroad to religious places which have become notorious for providing shelter and help to the terrorist must be stopped. Intelligence Bureau (IB) should accelerate its effort in identifying and removing subversive elements from government and semi-government organisations. These elements, in a covert manner, are terrorising the faithful and loyal population and prepare safe grounds for foreign terrorist to seek safe shelters. Involvement of local bodies in identifying the outsiders and unfamiliar

should be activated. Village headman, sarpanch, chairman of residents societies must be made accountable in this regard and made to carry out this responsibility as an essential duty.

Training camps in PoK We have identified training camps and hideouts which the terrorists have established in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). In the aftermath of Osama bin Laden’s killing, there is likelihood of some more safe places to be prepared in the PoK. We must keep the entire PoK under constant observation and vigilance operation by own forces should be launched against terrorist camps in the PoK. If required operations against Pakistani posts, which are harbouring terrorists or are being used as bases or as launching pads by the terrorists, should be conducted. Time has come to terrorise the terrorist by active and continuous operations against them day and night and in all seasons and in all places, internally or externally. Post Laden killing, more dangers are looming over Indian security. We have to meet these new challenges by adopting an aggressive and active strategy against all those who are promoting these dangers be it local collaborators or paid agents and saboteurs of foreign based terrorist organisations. Pakistan needs to be tackled by Dama, Bheda and Danda and by abandoning Sama approach. We need to pay lesser attention to her possessing nuclear weapons. She has made enough use of this bogey in terrorising Indian political leadership. The writer is former General Officer Commanding in Kashmir Valley and Chief of Staff of the Eastern Command.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

You have the Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Army General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani – the most powerful man in Pakistan – chain-smoking in the corridor as the National Assembly debated the ignominious assassination of Pakistan’s most honoured guest Osama bin Laden. This time the whole nation has become caught up in a web of deniability: No the Pakistan Army and its Inter-Services Intelligence knew nothing of the raid. But the suspicion remains that they were warned of dire consequences if they interfered and that is why ISI chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha ran out of Washington as if his pants were on fire. The only thing that has some clarity is that slowly the veil is lifting on China’s jihadi connection.

he mode of Osama’s death sent shockwaves across Pakistan although the nature of impact differed from area to area but there was anger in all segments of the society directed against the US, Pakistan government, intelligence agencies and the army. The armed forces and the ISI were embarrassed; there was a deafening silence in political circles in the absence of any excuse that could explain the security-intelligence failure of such magnitude.

Call to revolt The doubts whether the Al Qaeda chief was killed with the connivance of the government, the army and brutal details of the killing sent waves of resentment against the Americans and the government of Pakistan. The public initially waited in stunned silence but the Al Qaeda statement released on Friday (May 6th), confirming that its leader was dead led to a sudden burst of emotions as the statement issued by Al Qaeda starkly portrayed the sentiments of the people of Pakistan. It said “His blood will remain, with permission from Allah, the Almighty, a curse that chases the Americans and their agents and goes after them inside and outside their countries.” It further said: “Their (US) happiness will turn into sorrow and their blood will be mixed with their tears. We call upon our Muslim people in Pakistan, on whose land Sheikh Osama was killed, to rise up and revolt.”

A widely reported statement attributed to Osama’s wife and his 12-year-old daughter said that he was unarmed and killed in cold blood; at least three corpses of unarmed men shot brutally through the nose and ears were found in pools of blood by the local police. The details of brutal killing and burial of Osama at sea caused great bitterness and a new band of suicide bombers has arisen determined to target US and its local supporters who are seen as legitimate targets in defending the country from the infidels. Recent suicide attacks may be seen in this context.

Sellout The fallout in Pakistan is bound to be very complex as the unilateral attack and killing of Osama without informing Pakistan is seen as an attack both on country’s integrity and Islam. The doubt whether its army failed to defend the country or it connived with the Americans to get sophisticated weapon systems and some extra dollars has increased insecurity and a sense of betrayal. People are asking how could the army be so blind as to miss the presence of Osama bin Laden just a few hundred meters from the Military Academy that is visited every now and then by senior most army officers. Pakistanis are also wondering how four Black Hawk stealth helicopters evaded radar detection and landed unnoticed, when civilians could watch them from their roof tops? How could local police

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

impact on

Pakistan

Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Afsir Karim

and the security forces remain unaware of the noise and clamour of the raid. Some serving and retired army officers and some members of the government are being suspected of complicity and it is being said that Osama bin Laden, may have been kept in this house on the pretext of medical treatment and handed over to the Americans according to a plan. President Obama’s assertion that ‘justice‘ has been finally done has only rubbed salt in wounds of most Pakistanis and has raised doubts if the brutal killing of Osama without a trial was deliberate to set a precedence for more such attacks in total disregard of Pakistan’s sovereignty. The immediate fallout of such doubts seems to be that the US and its forces are now being seen as enemies of the country and Islam by most Pakistanis and they want their government to distance itself from the US regardless of the of loss of billions of dollars that America now provides to Pakistan.

Sheen lost This widespread adverse public reaction against the Pakistan army and the ISI has placed them in a very embarrassing position, they realise even if heads of some officers roll their credibility will not be easily restored. The loss of faith of the people in the army will have a major impact on its political, socio-political status in the country and the army wants the situation to change.

It is believed the Corps Commanders are angry with the civil administration and they feel President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani did precious little to defend the army and the ISI in the face of the doubts of the public about their competence and

complicity. In this context suggestions are being made about possible take-over by the military to regain its prestige and position. Also suggestion for a unilateral renunciation of US aid is being made as an option to regain some self respect, but this is easier said than

done until alternative arrangements are available as Pakistan is in dire financial straits. Gilani’s four-day visit to China from May 17 was being seen by many people as a trip to explore possible options.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

mission

The power of a King lies in his mighty arms…

Network intact There has so far been no large or violent public agitation after the death of Osama in Pakistan but increase of suicide attacks is on the cards. The mass support of Osama in the country may have been lacking but there is a dedicated segment that may start violence and retaliatory attacks against the government establishments. The hard-core cadres and well trained activists of Al Qaeda are largely unscathed and they are capable of big terrorist strikes that can pose a serious threat to the stability of Pakistan. Al Qaeda is unlikely to collapse as a result of the death of Osama or gradually wither away over a period of time as assumed by many analysts who give Al Qaeda only five to ten years. In the wake of retaliatory violence by radical groups internal power struggle and instability is likely to increase, the trust deficit between various power centres has increased and economic situation is rapidly deteriorating. Political, religious and ethnic violence and attacks against the State may gradually endanger the very existence of Pakistan and pave the way for takeover by radical groups like Tehrik-e-Taliban and its associate groups who are demanding Sharia rule in Pakistan.

Unilateral action The American drone attacks show no sign of abating despite the strong resentment against these in all segments of the Pakistani society; regardless of the warning of the army chief and of the prime minister of Pakistan, Americans have made it clear that unilateral attacks on the enemies of

America finding shelter in Pakistan will continue, this assertion has brought the US and Pakistan in direct confrontation. Any expansion of campaign by Special Operations into Pakistan will be a risky proposition considering the growing resentment against America regarding its policy of active intervention inside Pakistan. Any repeat of the Abbottabad may bring peaceful cooperation in Afghanistan to a standstill and American routes of supply through Pakistan may be blocked. Although the US has yet to find alternative supply routes into Afghanistan, Special Operations that bring vital intelligence inputs from captured militants are likely to continue. In recent years, Afghan militias working with the CIA are reported to have carried out a number of secret missions into Pakistan’s tribal areas to obtain vital information, on some occasions the Afghans carried out raids to destroy militant weapons caches. These Afghan operatives, who are known as Counter-terrorism Pursuit Teams, have been a source of friction between Pakistan and US forces and the decision to expand such military activity in Pakistan would amount to opening a new front against Pakistan. Although expanded special operations can prove counter-productive and their fallout could negate short term tactical gains, plans to capture or kill Al Qaeda, Taliban and the Haqqani leadership are likely to continue. Pakistan-US relationship seems rather uneasy at present but the future is not easy to predict in the prevailing murky political environment.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

Jihadi backlash The jihadis, regardless of US-Pakistan equation are going to target the ruling class and the moderate Muslims of Pakistan because they believe Pakistan cannot be purified and converted into an Islamic State unless it is freed from the clutches of US infidels and their supporters. After the killing of Osama in the ground raid that hurt Pakistani pride and humiliated the entire country the fundamentalist forces have got a new lease of life. In these circumstances violence will be intensified and terrorism may appear in more lethal forms in many parts of Pakistan.

India bogey An attempt by Pakistani army brass to raise India bogey, by telling the people of Pakistan that India is likely to mount attacks on Pakistan, is likely to divert attention of the people from the internal mess. An insinuation may be made that India in collaboration with the US is planning to attack Pakistani nuclear weapons. The rising tide of terrorism in Pakistan in the wake of killing of Osama may spill over to our side of the border and India has to be extra cautious and vigilant due to the developing security environment in Pakistan; India will need to watch the long term fallout of Osama’s killing in the region very carefully. The writer is a well known retired Indian army general and a military scholar who has authored several books on strategic affairs and military studies. He is a graduate of the Defense Services Staff College, Wellington and the National Defence College.

Security of the citizens at peace time is very important because State is the only saviour of the men and women who get affected only because of the negligence of the State.

— Chanakya

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

Operation Neptune Spear

Ten years of search and the final swoop has created for America a databank

Manvendra Singh

so full of information that it could by culling and coordinating be able to identify and reach not just the local commanders but also their handlers and political agents from the Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence who have, even now, denied any involvement in the export of terror worldwide. This is what the indomitable Senator John Kerry, Chairman US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, carried with him in his head when he visited Islamabad soon after Osamaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s death - an offer which, hopefully, Pakistan will not refuse: Get the others. 30

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the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

The team that finally found Osama bin Laden on the third floor had to deal with the dilemma of his wife and daughter in the same room. So while one SEAL grabbed the young girl, another fired a low shot to keep the wife out of the way. The third SEAL fired two rounds from his Heckler & Koch HK416 to take the life of the most wanted man in the world. He even had the awkward task of lying by the side of the body to check for height, amongst the identification procedures followed. It was only then that the White House was informed ‘Geronimo EKIA’ (enemy killed in action)

“M

ay God facilitate”, said the caller, after a pause loaded with a world of possibilities for those that were listening, covertly. Except that the one who heard it spoken for him, did not know that the significance of the words was more than just what had been spoken. It was a chance intercept of a call that seemed as bland as the weather that day in mid-2010. Where have you been? The caller had asked when the mobile phone answered. I’m back with the people I was with before, said the called person, which then provoked a pregnant pause and the facilitation wish. What it did facilitate was the flight of a super secret team of covert soldiers, riding in equally secretive helicopters, to a sore-thumb mansion in Bilal Town, Abbottabad. Between the wish for God facilitating and the flight of the secretive teams, there was much that would happen in the world’s most costly manhunt in history. It would facilitate the midnight flight to the doors of the Pakistan Military Academy Kakul, all in cosy Abbottabad. The final setting of the decade long drama as extraordinary as the events that initially led to the hunt for the evil epitome of terror.

The target The caller was not the person desperately wanted by the Central Intelligence Agency, but the one who answered the ring. For after years of trying the CIA had finally found the pigeon that had been flying unseen and unheard. Eluding the most complex array of intelligence assets put together by any country to home in on one person. The call came on the phone of Abu Ahmed Al-Kuwaiti, the pseudonym of the most trusted in the small circle around

Osama bin Laden. That he was known as the most trusted came through from the interrogation of Hassan Ghul, an Iraqi Al Qaeda leader picked by United States in 2004. His interrogation confirmed the existence of Al-Kuwaiti, even when previous efforts had come to naught. Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, chief planner of the 11 September 2001 attacks and Abu Faraj al-Libi, his successor as the Al Qaeda operational chief, denied knowing Al-Kuwaiti. Both had been arrested in Pakistan, at different times and handed over to the US. When their interrogations turned up identical responses of denials it made the CIA realise they were onto something bigger than a mere pigeon. They didn’t believe either of their two prisoners, since it seemed they were being diverted from an important lead. And so it was the confirmation provided by Hassan Ghul that whetted their appetite further. But it would take a lot more effort and a lot more time before the CIA could confirm their target man was alive and in which country. And it would take them some more time before the target man would lead them to the house in Abbottabad that the locals called Waziristan Haveli.

The courier Abu Ahmed Al-Kuwaiti was the trusted courier of Osama bin Laden, the messenger between the most hunted man and a world that was hungry for any information about him. In the period before technology, he would’ve been a pigeon, flying messages from place to place, trusted by his owners and receivers alike. But in an ironical development it was the overwhelming use

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of technology that prompted Osama bin Laden to return to the use of couriers, in this case humans that he could trust, with his life if need be. There had been no trace of Osama bin Laden after the failed operation in Tora Bora in Afghanistan toward the end of 2001. All signals coming from Osama bin Laden had died out and yet his audio and videotapes appeared with eerie regularity. That was the most disquieting experience for all those hunting him, through human or electronic means. For Al-Jazeera had a way of receiving the tapes, but without knowing who was doing the deliveries. A frustrated United States ended up with tarring the image of Al-Jazeera and in return itself. But the messages kept coming, haltingly, but nevertheless reaching their destination. The trick was to find the place of despatch, but for that the courier would have to first be identified. And that was precisely what the brief phone call did. It opened up a world of opportunity for those who had been tracking him for the last decade. From the phone call to a visual identification now merely required the linking of human and technical intelligence assets. Man and machine now had to combine to find him, on the earth. And that they did on the bustling streets of Peshawar, when local Pakistani agents of the CIA tracked the user of the phone to a white Suzuki car as it made its way through the traffic on a July 2010 day.

The house Over the next weeks, the CIA would deploy all its resources, human and technical, to track Al-Kuwaiti’s movements. And sometime in August of last year they would follow him

to the house that had been hiding the most hunted man in history. A US$ 50 million bounty on his head did not make Osama bin Laden shelter in a cave, as had been predicted for so long. Instead he was safely ensconced in the relatively cooler climes of Abbottabad, surrounded by the Pakistan Army in various forms of service or retirement. Over months the CIA deployed some of its key human assets, local agents as well as US citizens of Pakistani origin, to monitor the house that stared back at the world through windows that did not open outwards. A safe house was arranged near enough the Osama bin Laden residence to keep an eye on the residents, with glazed glass windows that allowed greater access outside without disclosing on those inside. And some curious things emerged. All pointing toward the fact that the residence were hiding something big, in every sense of the word.

Osama, there you are! The CIA had the National Security Agency, the worlds most advanced signals intelligence body, eavesdrop on the house. All kinds of assets were deployed to check on transmissions from the house, of any kind. But there just wasn’t any. A house of that size, larger than anything around it, did not have a telephone connection and as a

corollary, no Internet access too. This had the CIA and other agencies in a huddle. Surely someone living there did not want to be caught communicating with the world. That was the first hint that the house Al-Kuwaiti entered and left as a matter of routine was hiding someone who clearly did not want to be seen by the world. Over a period of time the snooping pointed to an example of the extreme care taken to protect identities. Al-Kuwaiti would not place the battery into his mobile until he was almost 90 kms away, in the direction of Peshawar and beyond. This was only to prevent the phone giving away his location, but little realising that he had been identified and was on the verge of giving away his biggest secret, one last time. For on the third floor of the house, spy photographs noticed a seven foot wall that seemed to be designed to keep secrets inside. It ran along on the terrace wall, so someone walking would not be seen from the outside. And that was what finally convinced the CIA that they had finally honed onto their biggest target, Osama bin Laden.

Voice from the past At six feet four inches there weren’t many places Osama Bin Laden could hide without attracting even the most basic of glances. The seven foot wall was meant to keep him from glancing eyes, which it did, even from the CIA

safe house nearby. What he did not cater for was the technical resources available to overcome that problem. The CIA committed the resources of the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency that looks down from the skies. While the NSA listens the responsibility for imagery is that of the latter. And they found a man walking on the terrace, out of eyeshot of anyone on the ground. He would be seen walking with regularity and which earned him the sobriquet of ‘the pacer’. His steps were measured to be at a pace. But even with the most advanced imagery there remained the problem of measuring his height. The best that the satellite specialist could arrive at was anything between five feet eight to a foot taller. It was the closest piece of evidence yet arrived at. Until, it is rumoured, the safe house managed to get a voice sample. Sophisticated listening devices behind the glazed windows caught a conversation of a man and which was not that of the courier Al-Kuwaiti. The pieces were falling into place for the CIA and it was now time to present the evidence to the President of the United States of America for the next steps in the pursuit of the most wanted man on earth.

How to get him? There were three options before President Obama in the means to

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take out Osama bin Laden. The least complicated, but also the least reliable, was to bomb the house using a stealth aircraft. While that would have removed the house from existence and its residents, there was no guarantee that a bomb would not go astray and quite possibly into PMA Kakul. The second alternative was to strike the house with an armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicle. While this option also minimised US casualties, it did pose a risk of collateral damage as the previous option. In both cases there was a certainty that women and children would suffer and further fuel propagandist material. The last option was the one that involved maximum risk to US personnel for they would fly in, assault the house and neutralise Osama bin Laden, without harming women and children and fly out. The only way to do that was a heliborne assault, involving minimal manpower, maximum firepower and stealth. And this was also the only option that guaranteed identification of the target, as the assault team would be in physical contact with bin Laden. Despite using all of the best technology available, the confirmation of his presence in the house was still not 100 per cent. Depending on the person asked, it wavered between 60-68 per cent. Which left the heliborne assault as the safest in terms of collateral damage and for confirming that it was in fact Osama bin Laden in the Waziristan Haveli in Bilal Town, Abbottabad.

Practice for perfection Even before the final decision had been taken as to what option would be exercised, a secretive section of the Joint Special Operations Command had begun doing dry runs on a full-scale model of the target house. These were done on both coasts of the US, before finally moving to Camp Alpha at the Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan. Those selected for the operation were from the Red Squadron of Naval Special Warfare Development Group, commonly known as SEAL Team Six, based at Dam Neck, Virginia on the Atlantic Coast of the US. DEVGRU, as they are in official documentation, is the special forces component of the US Navy. Considered amongst the best in the world, the SEALs have seen failures and successes over the years, as with all Special Forces. There have been a number of

Hollywood movies based on SEALs themes. Societal testimony if there need be any in this case. But even as they did the dry runs there was still no word on their target. The assault team remained confined to a restricted section of Camp Alpha, in itself a controlled access area at Bagram Air Base.

Pros and cons magnified Once it was clear that the snooping had reached the upper limit possible in the circumstances, the matter was referred to President Obama to make the final call. The first meeting in this regard was held on 14 March, the action plans were put on the table and discussed threadbare. The three options were debated and weighed in relation to their utility. Since the information itself was incomplete, as it wasn’t certain that it was in fact bin Laden in Abbottabad, the options were evaluated. This process continued almost till the very end. After all, the President’s closest in the national security team were not unanimous in terms of the intelligence and neither were they united in terms of what constituted the best option. Another meeting was held on 29 March. And in the meantime, Vice Admiral William H. McRaven, head of the Joint Special Operations Command, worked at fine-tuning details of the raid. Even as the SEALs rehearsed their drills, the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency helped JSOC in crafting combat mission simulators for the pilots chosen to fly in the operations. As always, the helicopters and their crew came from the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, popularly known as the Night Stalkers for their proficiency in flying when the world goes blind with darkness.

Obama's call According to a British newspaper the SEALs team conducted complete dry runs on 7 and 13 April in Afghanistan, far away from prying eyes. And those who may’ve been watching would’ve thought that it was all for an operation in Afghanistan. Further meetings continued in the White House, on 12 April, again on 19 April and then finally on 28 April. Even as Vice Adm. McRaven presented the final assault plans, the team of advisors remained divided on what remained the best option. The President simply said he’d sleep over it and decide and emphasised

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that there would be a decision one-way or the other. On the morning of 29 April, President Obama once again met Vice Adm. McRaven and signed the Presidential Authority at 0820 hours, committing the United States of America to its riskiest special operation in more than 30 years - the failed embassy rescue bid in Iran. Operation Eagle Claw had cost President Jimmy Carter his presidency and Operation Neptune Spear could well do the same for President Barack Obama. Contrary to initial reports, the operation was not named Geronimo, which was but a code sign for Osama bin Laden’s death. It was called Operation Neptune Spear, for reasons that are obvious. Neptune being the Roman God of the seas and his spear, a trident, the most obvious part of the SEALs insignia. Also, as pre-meditated, they were to feed Osama to the fishes.

Airborne sensors There were bursts of joy and much merriment when the SEALs assault team was informed that the operation had been given the go-ahead and that their target was Osama bin Laden. It was then that Geronimo came to make sense to all in the assault team. The great 19th century Chiricahua Apache leader had been a source of much frustration for American and Mexican law enforcement agencies for well over a decade, but for reasons very different to what Osama bin Laden would pose in the 21st century. Even as the assault time was announced for the next day, a problem arose and one that none could have foreseen, or prevented. Low-level clouds moved in over Abbottabad in a localised weather phenomenon that was being watched by an RQ-170 UAV orbiting the target zone. Unarmed, but with vital snooping and electronic warfare pods, the drone would play an important role during the entire operation. While the drone flew in Pakistani airspace, there were other listening platforms, manned and armed, flying in Afghanistan airspace. This was to coordinate the raid, as also to prevent any harm from Pakistan Air Force should the raiders be detected and attacked at any time.

Tarbela airbase used Once night set in on 1 May, the raiders boarded their assaulting

machines. There would be four helicopters involved in all, besides the drone in place. The main assault would be led by two teams of 12 SEALs each coming down from modified MH-60 Black Hawks helicopters and the supporting elements would be flying in two special operations capable Chinooks, that could also provide mid-air refuelling. Since the flying distance from Bagram to Abbottabad, and back, was beyond the combat radius of a fully equipped Black Hawk. And one with special operations capability and additional stealth features the weight only gets heavier. Even with the use of a staging point in Jalalabad in Afghanistan, the flying time required to complete the operation remained beyond the capability of a Black Hawk. The distance, as the crow flies, from Bagram to Abbottabad is 158 miles and with a combat radius of 368 miles, the Black Hawks could not have been risked. Despite the Chinooks carrying backup and fuel, it would still require a quick pit stop somewhere closer to the targeted house. The closest point, in this case, being the Pakistan Air Force base Ghazi, near Tarbela Dam. It is debated, but strenuously denied by the Pakistani authorities, that the assault force of Operation Neptune Spear used the airbase at Tarbela Ghazi. But there is a precedent since US helicopters have been flying from Ghazi since September 2010 as support for the devastating floods. They retain a portion of the base for use independent of Pakistani requirement. Over a period of time they would have developed a routine of flying at all hours, so as to lull the Pakistani authorities. Therefore, with the range restrictions for a combat ready flight, which also required hovering over the target area for a considerable time, it is certain PAF Ghazi was used. In which case the helicopters would have refuelled at the base before proceeding to the house.

Final assault The planning of Operation Neptune Spear envisioned the SEALs being inducted in two differing directions. While one would have slithered down into the compound to neutralise all threats from the ground up, the other team was to come from the top floor down. It also involved inhabitants of the CIA run safe house, who now began their final act in the

game. While some set about clearing out from their place, other(s) even indulged in a bit of sabotage and cut power from the area. Even PMA Kakul was not spared this ignominy. It was truly a pitch-black night when helicopters came low over the house. The first helicopter succeeded in its mission of letting the SEALs down, but the second Black Hawk got caught in the vortex of turbulence created by conditions within the high walls of the compound. Unusually higher temperatures and insufficient dispersal of pressure pushed the Black Hawk into scrapping the high fencing on the wall with its tail rotor. That was enough to send it crashing onto the ground, albeit sans any casualties. As the President and his team watched the scenario unfold through a live feed, the message that a Black Hawk was down brought back unpleasant memories of Mogadishu 1993 and the action immortalised by the Ridely Scott film, Black Hawk Down. So it was a relieved White House when it was confirmed there were no casualties.

Intelligence treasure trove This then meant that both teams would make their way up the floors, while one team faced gun fire from the guesthouse, the other made its way through blasting the main doors. The gunfire from the guesthouse was the last thing Al-Kuwaiti would do, having inadvertently led the SEALs to this hideout. A woman died with him, while another man, spoken of as his brother was to fall soon after. While those hunting bin Laden made their way up the floors, killing a son on the way, the other SEALs began to grab whatever they could lay their hands on.

This would be the single largest find of intelligence from one operation against Al-Qaeda. And it would not require water-boarding or any other torture technique to get it out.

Osama killed The team that finally found Osama on the third floor had to deal with the dilemma of his wife and daughter in the same room. So while one SEAL grabbed the young girl, another fired a low shot to keep the wife out of the way. The third SEAL fired two rounds from his Heckler & Koch HK416 to take the life of the most wanted man in the world. He even had the awkward task of lying by the side of the body to check for height, amongst the identification procedures followed. It was only then that the White House was informed ‘Geronimo EKIA’ (enemy killed in action). By which time the rest of the SEALs had completed their particular tasks, cleaning up the place for information, or securing rest of the women and children. Who were then moved to one corner of the house before the stricken Black Hawk was blown up with explosives, leaving a tail section for the world to see the next day and gaggle over its stealth features. 0110 hours local time, the helicopters lifted off from their hovering over Waziristan Haveli and headed back to Bagram, non-stop.

The writer is Editor-in-Chief of Defence and Security Alert (DSA) magazine. He is a well known defence journalist and columnist. He was member of Indian parliament till 2009 from one of the largest constituencies in Rajasthan, India.

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The US has to make full use of the psychological advantages that accrue from Operation Geronimo and step up the military pressure against all those involved in terrorism around the globe. Pakistan’s role in the Global War Against Terrorism has in no way diminished. Getting Osama was but one aspect of GWOT and Pakistan can be said to have delivered on a promise made a decade ago albeit not in the manner and timing that it happened. The US has, appropriately, put the pressure on Pakistan to deliver peace in Afghanistan. Institutionalised governance in Afghanistan in absolute contrast to the totally free hand that Pakistan was given in creating for itself “strategic depth” inside Afghanistan to the detriment of world peace and security must be US policy here on. GWOT must run its course smoothly till terrorist nests are neutralised beginning from Pakistan.

Dr. Rajendra Prasad

O T

he killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad on Pakistan’s soil by the US Navy SEALs marks the elimination of most-wanted man in global terrorism. While it is too early to foretell how Osama bin Laden’s killing will impact Al Qaeda and other terror groups around the world, it is fully clear that the war on Al Qaeda and terror is far from over. While many outfits voiced loyalty to Osama bin Laden, they do not perpetrate terrorism on centralised direction and inflict violence and conflicts of minds largely on their own. Splinter groups are in existence in the Arab world—from Iraq to Yemen to Morocco—and remain a distinct threat to the region and the West. Keeping this perception in mind, Osama bin Laden’s killing in no way may be interpreted as the end of the war on Al Qaeda and terror. Meanwhile, the United States may be inclined to revisit its previous strategy and tactics to launch offensive actions on the military front and initiate afresh strongly practicable political options that run counter to the Osama bin Laden-style extremism and trans-national jihadi terrorism advocated by him.

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Partial psychological mileage As evidenced through the hand-written paper documents, information and computer data recovered from Osama’s Abbottabad mansion, he was obsessed with the United States in particular and the West in general and seemed to be searching for a formidable modus operandi to replicate another 9/11 on the 10th anniversary of September attacks to instill fear and shock in the hearts and minds of the people. In such circumstances, the US drive to kill the Al Qaeda supremo was premeditated. About ten days before the operation, the US President Obama had reviewed the plans and pressed the military’s Joint Special Operations Command as to whether they were taking along adequate forces to fight their way out if confronted by Pakistan’s hostile Police and the Army during the raids on Osama’s mansion in Abbottabad.

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As a consequence, the swift blow of 40 minutes was one of the riskiest clandestine operations launched by the US Central Intelligence Agency and its Military’s Joint Special Command in the past many years. Thus to accomplish this secret mission, they were mentally prepared to silence any forcible interference, if any. by Pakistan which remains a US partner in fighting global war on terror in Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden’s killing has automatically given a limited psychological leverage for the United States of America, coupled with phenomenal significance for the global war on terror (GWOT) being fought in Afghanistan rather than influencing the entire dynamics and gamut of activities of radical jihadist bands and extremist

have fled and decentralised their activities. They have found it a bit difficult to launch any major terror plot against Western countries for the last few years. Now, Osama bin Laden’s demise doesn’t directly consolidate Al Qaeda’s organisation that is largely decentralised across other countries. The fate of Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al Qaeda’s second-in-command, remains uncertain, but he will probably succeed Osama and any internal rift like the one that fragmented the Pakistani Taliban is less likely. As a part of some extremist reactions resulting from Osama’s killing in Pakistan and elsewhere and the recurrent events in the Middle East — from Yemen to Iraq — might give Al Qaeda some probable opportunities

of demilitarising the war on terrorism and the beginning of the end of the US and allied presence in Afghanistan. Although his operational role has immensely reduced since 9/11, he was still a domineering epitome for Al Qaeda’s ascendency. He formulated the Al Qaeda’s strategic vision and was a unique symbol of struggle against the West. Others may prove to be better strategists but no individual, including his lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahiri, could command a similar aura of infallibility and appeal among jihadi cadres.

in the political, social and strategic milieu of a protracted guerrilla conflict, that has had ominous human and developmental consequences for Afghanistan and has structured regional international relations for the last ten years. The recent discourse on Afghanistan has become more and more focused with those calling for a rapid departure of the US and allied troops contending that the present military adventure is part of the problem rather than the solution; and those asserting that international involvement (also military) in Afghanistan is a potent necessity for intra-state, inter-state and

make it convenient for the Taliban to concede visible departure and complete delinking from Al Qaeda ominous plots — a central US objective for such negotiations.

global peace and stability.

relationship with other splinter terror groups remains fragile. In Afghanistan, the demoralising impact is likely to be in all probability limited. The over-arching motivations of Taliban leaders and fighters continue to remain highly personal and local and very much governed by Afghanistan’s political permutations and combinations. Osama bin Laden’s demise will not transform these local, tribal and individual overtures.

Second, it may be more likely for the Taliban to distance itself from Al Qaeda after Osama bin Laden’s exit. How his demise will be appreciated is largely based on the regional motivations. It will be realised more deeply in Central and South Asia where the Qaeda core has been embedded than in countries and regions where, despite some voice of allegiance to Al Qaeda, its

academy. Whatsoever we adduce— Pak’s stupidity or collusion—this is most likely to provide the United States substantial opportunity in compelling Pakistan to take positive steps for bilateral and multilateral cooperation against the suppression of post-9/11 terrorism, especially in South Asia and Central Asia. Finally, Osama bin Laden’s death has long-term strategic implications for the global war on terrorism, the war in Afghanistan and US-Pakistan relations. Either way, people in the United States and Europe should not

Afghan imbroglio The actual impact of Osama’s end could be discernible on the global war

In the long run, bin Laden’s death may herald the prospect of ending the US intervention and foreign military presence in Afghanistan. He was an “inevitable liability” for the Taliban who have much larger stakes in re-gaining control over Afghanistan than waging a global jihad. The Taliban will now be able to secure a relatively major time slot by distancing itself from Al Qaeda and revitalising its authority. With bin Laden’s end, the global war on terrorism (GWOT) can shift from its earlier focus on the battlefield toward dealing with terrorism through intelligence network, effective policing and international collaboration individuals operating in many countries around the world. According to reliable serving and retired US officials, the former US President George Bush and the then Pakistan’s President General Pervez Musharraf had already struck a secret deal almost ten years ago permitting unilateral US operation on Pak soil against Osama bin Laden, his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri and the Al Qaeda number three, which was later on renewed by the Pakistan Army during the Pak’s transition to democracy in 2008 and eventually, under the firm direction of the Obama Administration, culminated in Osama bin Laden being hunted down in Pakistan’s garrison city Abbottabad on May 2, 2011.

Al Qaeda constricted In the past few years of GWOT, under the pressure of US drone attacks and ground operations of the allied forces in Afghanistan and neighbouring Pakistan’s tribal areas, Al Qaeda cadres

to recruit new bands of jihadi terrorists. In addition, some probabilities remain to emphasise that other jihadist groups, for example Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) in Pakistan, will be affected and negatively charged by the killing of Osama. At the same time, it would be a misperception to admit that Osama bin Laden’s death will set forth suddenly a major policy shift in the over-all drive of the United States to fight post-9/11 trans-national terrorism.

Impact on Al Qaeda

on terror (GWOT) in Afghanistan. On the military front, Al Qaeda has not played a decisive role and one should not presuppose for a distinctive strategy or a less aggressive design by Taliban. The level of terror strike has retarded but the momentum is surely continuing with the Taliban. But on the political front, the unprecedented departure of Osama bin Laden from the political scenario provides a renewed opportunity for the United States to begin fresh talks with the Taliban’s leadership.

Osama bin Laden’s demise is a devastating shock to Al Qaeda cadres, but it is not the termination of jihadi terrorism. While it is demoralising for the whole jihadi nexus of terror, it will not eliminate the motivation to strike the US targets and is likely to launch revenge attacks. Osama’s demise has pushed the future of the broader Al Qaeda network into doldrums. But from a strategic point of view, his death could signify a critical point in the way

Afghanistan is now faced with a gamut of challenges: The shift of security responsibilities from the US and allied forces to the Afghan National Security Forces and at some stage the departure of the US and allied forces; a likely reconciliation and reintegration process with Taliban / insurgents and the political outcomes of that; the infallible necessity for uplift in governance and development; the mutuality of relationship with its neighbours. All

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Paradigm shift Osama’s demise has given us to visualise some notable points for future. First, after such a successful operation against Al-Qaeda’s top leadership, Obama Administration has attained a fair amount of political advantage— he has shut up for sometime all Republican criticism and vitriolic overtures and can more effectively negotiate with the Taliban. Osama's death could help promote the Taliban’s inclination to negotiate an end to the war by admitting their fallibility, already evidenced from drone attacks in Pakistan and other operations in Afghanistan. His demise may also

Third, the Pakistani military elite and Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) top officials are now under unprecedented pressure to clarify how the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks was able to take shelter so deep inside Pakistan, especially in the vicinity of a military

be over-enthusiastic into thinking that bin Laden’s death will end the conflict in Afghanistan. Any sudden, major decrease of the US and international endeavours in Afghanistan would still likely culminate into a civil war and the Taliban controlling important tracts of the country would germinate the seeds of deleterious consequences for global counter-terrorism efforts, relations among the United States, China, Pakistan, India, Russia and Iran and Pakistan’s stability. Osama bin Laden’s demise has certainly not set forth the termination of jihadist terrorism, but it could help promote a political solution to Afghanistan imbroglio. With circumstances on the ground making

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it clear that a military solution doesn’t make sense, this is a chance for Washington to change strategy and do the sensible thing in Afghanistan after almost ten years at war. The question looms large over the horizon: will US President Obama utilise his newly attained political leverage to make a major diplomatic initiative?

” c i

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Greater Pak involvement For so many unstated reasons, Pakistanisation of the war on terror has been one of the viable options for the United States. Opting for this process, it is not meant for extending the war into Pakistan but rather extending Pakistan into Afghanistan. The Taliban phenomenon has gained ground in Pakistan through different means and modi operandi that pose serious challenges and extensively hamper Pakistani efforts to regain their freedom of action in Afghanistan. Now, under the present circumstances emanating from Osama’s death, the role of Pakistani Taliban is equally challenging. It could germinate a number of national security threats against Islamabad which, coupled with the deep-rooted resource crunch, severe economic crisis and debt burden, could reduce Pakistan’s capacity to manage crisis-prone Afghanistan. In reality, the US willingness and support for the Pakistanisation of the GWOT have found expressions at a time when the Pakistanis are not in a perfect position and readiness to capitalise on it. During the initial stages of GWOT, the United States had ventured to keep aside the Taliban in Afghanistan from the regime in Pakistan for its own reasons. The Taliban phenomena in Afghanistan and Pakistan have not been one and the same in nature. The US has never succeeded in its dealings with Pakistan’s continuing inclination to camouflage its stakes and maintain a relationship across the border. Still, the US opposition continues to remain a potent barrier to Pakistan’s consolidation of the Taliban in Afghanistan and any departure from this position may facilitate new courses open to Islamabad in that regard.

Synergy in Afghanistan The Pakistani inter-linkage with Taliban, which was a burden for the United States in the preceding decade,

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may now provide sufficient leverage for Washington because it facilitates a reliable channel for meaningful communication and dialogue with the Taliban to provide real bargaining chips to the US. If talks are really underway, Islamabad can be as good a place as any in the light of the strategic and political mutuality of Pakistan’s special relationship with the US. Pakistan needs the United States for so many reasons. It must have a relatively stable Afghanistan to safeguard its western frontiers. Meanwhile, the Taliban intend to regain power and to run Afghanistan. Seemingly, the US perception of its vital national interests is in a state of flux. The US may not like to involve itself deeply in how Afghanistan is politically administered so long as Afghans do not lend support to the transnational jihadi groups and religious outfits. But it would certainly be interested in its withdrawal to take place in such a way that strengthens its influence and resolve rather than weakens it. Pakistan can facilitate the cover mechanism for setting the tone of a negotiated conflict resolution.

The road ahead In the long run, bin Laden’s death may herald the prospect of ending the US intervention and foreign military presence in Afghanistan. He was an “inevitable liability” for the Taliban who have much larger stakes in

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

re-gaining control over Afghanistan than waging a global jihad. The Taliban will now be able to secure a relatively major time slot by distancing itself from Al Qaeda and revitalising its authority. With bin Laden’s end, the global war on terrorism (GWOT) can shift from its earlier focus on the battlefield toward dealing with terrorism through intelligence network, effective policing and international collaboration. While the strategic threats and challenges from Al Qaeda itself will probably diminish, the motivation for revenge attacks by splinter terrorist groups and individuals could increase and multiply. Individual terrorists and homegrown cells in particular may well strive to retaliate for bin Laden’s death and they will be even less selective in their killings and other terror activities. Pakistan probably faces the gravest challenge as multiple local jihadi groups venture for revenge against that State and its people.

The writer is Professor in the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies (DDSS) and Dean, Faculty of Science, DDU Gorakhpur University, UP, India. He is author of five books and has edited three books. He has the privilege of receiving special Fellowship given by the United Nations as participant in the training programme on Arms Control and Disarmament (1996), administered jointly by the Department of Disarmament Affairs, United Nations, New York and Juniata International Centre, Williamsburg, Penn, USA.

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implications for India

India is a nation that has been the target of consistent terrorist attacks most of which have been inspired and instigated by one or the other of our neighbours. China supported the insurgency and terrorism in the north-east from the very moment of the attainment of our independence from British colonialism. Pakistan has been trying to delink Jammu and Kashmir and, in a major digression, encouraged the Khalistani terrorists to seek a separate Sikh homeland. So we need to be more careful than most others now that Pakistan has been exposed as the epicentre of international terrorism.

n a classical surgical operation, Americans took out the world’s most wanted terrorist – Osama bin Laden on 2nd May 2011. It speaks volumes of American’s will, staying power and perseverance that they did not give up this pursuit for ten long years. But for Pakistan’s perfidy, perhaps Osama would have been killed much earlier, but whenever he was within reach, Pakistan would warn him and he would escape. Having realised that joint operations with Pakistan are not going to succeed, Americans carried out their operation alone and gained success. It would not need a genius to figure out that Osama’s latest hideout in Abbottabad was set up by Pakistan despite their denial to the contrary.

is turning out to be the most regressive religion in the world. Muslims have developed a persecution complex where they feel that the whole world, especially the western nations are unfair to them. They would like all Muslim countries to strictly enforce the Sharia law and declare themselves Islamic republics. It is but natural that terror would be the tool to achieve their aim.

Front runners

There are three countries in the world which are their sworn enemies. First the US because it is the Great Satan responsible for all outrages against Muslims the world over. Second is Israel which has usurped the Holy Land of Muslims in Palestine and has turned Palestinians into refugees in their own land. Third is India because we are not handing over Jammu and Kashmir to Pakistan. Al Qaeda also has imaginary grievances against many western countries. It would therefore take major anti-terrorist initiative on part of the world to root out this evil. It is easier said than done.

What we need to analyse is how this event will impact the security scenario in our context. It needs to be remembered that a shadowy organisation like the Al Qaeda does not have a rigid command and control structure. On Osama’s death, someone will take over the reins. At the moment Ayman al-Zawahiri and Ilyas Kashmiri are the front runners. We also need to remember that Al Qaeda is active in forty-five countries in the world. Its gameplan is also well known. Such organisations still remain in the seventh and eighth centuries, when the Prophet gave the concept of Jihad against the infidel. Also Islam

Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Sheru Thapliyal

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

Natural targets

Although Pakistan is the epicentre of terrorism and gives shelter and support to terrorists of all hues, it fails to realise that

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it is the classic story of someone riding a tiger and is unable to get off. Some statistics given below show how terrorism is bleeding Pakistan as much as the victim nation. TABLE 1

Places of Terrorist / Insurgent Attacks 2010 Number of Attacks Killed

Places

■■ Failure to safeguard our national interest ■■ Expansion of terrorist strikes outside J and K TABLE 3: Major Islamist Terrorist Attacks outside J and K and Northeast since 2000

Injured

Baluchistan

737

600

1117

Khyber Pakhtunkhwah

481

901

1832

FATA

700

863

1406

Punjab

309

897

Karachi

234

436

Sindh

Gligit-Baltistan

Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK)

Islamabad

Total

2120

2939

Date

Place

Nature of Attack

Fatalities and Injuries

14 August 2000

Rauzabad (UP)

Explosion on Sabarmati Express

09 Killed, 60 injured

SIMI, LeT

13 December 2001

New Delhi

Attack on Parliament 16 Killed, 30 Injured

JeM

24 September 2002

Gandhinagar, Gujarat

Two terrorists attacks Akshardham Temple

35 Killed, 74 injured

LeT

13 March 2003

Mulund, Mumbai

Bomb Explosion on board a local train

12 Killed, 70 injured

JeM / SIMI

25 August 2003

Mumbai

Twin bomb blasts near the Gateway of India and Zaveri Bazaar

52 Killed, 160 injured

SIMI / LeT

5794

TABLE 2

Months

Months of Terrorist / Insurgent Attacks 2010 Number of Attacks Killed

Injured

■■ Surge in piracy in connivance with Somali pirates who are also Muslims

314

757

759

February

251

692

912

March

327

1000

1075

■■ Use of dirty bomb

April

310

1020

1062

■■ Enhancement in urban-terrorism

May

286

1182

995

June

284

925

772

July

267

1077

1079

August

268

554

595

September

255

828

1058

October

302

667

643

What we need to do

November

275

666

638

■■ Evolve a national security policy

December

256

618

667

Total

3395

9986

It would be naive to believe that terrorism will be on the decline once Osama is no more. Apart from Al Qaeda there are other terrorist organisations like Taliban Hizbul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Toiba actively engaged in terrorist strikes against India. In this nefarious activity they are always provided arms training, bases and funds by Pakistan, so the terror factories will continue to plan and carry out terror strikes against us.

■■ Use of biological weapons such as mustard gas, nerve gas and anthrax

■■ Increased activities of local Muslims to provide help to terrorists ■■ A nexus could develop between terrorist groups operating in Jammu and Kashmir and Maoists ■■ Cyber terrorism

■■ Develop a counter strike capability by special forces, counter strike must take place in real time ■■ Develop an active counter-terrorist mindset, offensive action must be taken to hit the terrorists and their patrons ■■ Energise intelligence agencies and make them capable of resorting to covert operations ■■ Evolve a capable homeland security doctrine and equip forces accordingly

No counter-terror strategy

■■ Evolve a credible and strong diplomatic response to acts of terrorism

India lacks a coherent counter-terrorism strategy. We do not even have a national security policy and every action is knee-jerk and reactive. Our Prime Minister, who is hell-bent on making friends with Pakistan, even at the cost of national interest, has just issued a statement in Kabul ruling out surgical strikes of the kind that US carried out to take out Osama. In the aftermath of Osama killing, we must expect Al Qaeda to retaliate. While US has put its homeland security in order and Israel believes in immediate punitive action, we have taken no concrete steps to gear up our security mechanism despite terrorist strikes over the years. The fall out has been as under:

■■ Be prepared for a strong military response and its consequences

■■ Failure of deterrence ■■ India is being perceived as a soft State

Likely attacks in future

January

10255

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

Perpetrators

If one thing that Osama killing should have taught us is that a strong action against terrorism acts as a catharsis. It enhances your self belief and sends out a strong message to terrorists and their patrons that we are no longer prepared to be treated as a soft State. If we are aiming to be a country of consequence, then the only way is to stamp out terrorism with ruthlessness. The writer is PhD in Sino-Indian Relations and contributes regularly to magazines, periodicals and newspapers on Strategy, Security and Defence related issues. He is now working for a multinational information technology company.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

This is one conspiracy theory that has its circumstantial evidence all cut and dried. To begin at the beginning the CIA’s Panetta and ISI’s Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha’s meeting in Washington on 13 March. News reports from Washington told of Pasha running out of Washington in a great hurry – a fact described by a very perceptive Indian journalist as that of a man with “ants in his pants”. The one thing that could have made the sneaky Pakistani spymaster do what he did would be that he had been made an offer he could not refuse (a do it or die offer by the Mafia remember Marlon Brando in the Godfather?). Or, conversely, his departure could be described as being similar to that of Archimedes who jumped out of the bathtub totally nude yelling “Eureka! Eureka! (I have found it, I have found it) because Pasha discovered that he had suddenly become owner of a goldmine and he must hurry home to share the loot with his boss. 46

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

Col. Rajinder Singh

Operation O

sama bin Laden, the boss of Al Qaeda and a most wanted man in the world was killed on the midnight of 01/02 May 2011. The credit is being given to US Navy SEALS, who allegedly raided the hideout. But, is this the real truth? There is something more to it which has been camouflaged in the boisterous but confusing claims of USA and stocky silence by Pakistan military and ISI. Leon Panetta, CIA director, who master-minded the US operation has been issuing statements after statements to say that Pakistan was not involved in this operation. Such a panicky reiteration only leads one to conclude that there was something murkier, which is being masked by these true lies. It is the same Leon Panetta, who had met Lt. General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, ISI director some 15-20 days prior to this operation. Pray, what did they discuss?

Osama: Smokescreens Some of the USA statements on this operation are laughable. Let us just briefly look at them:

b) His wife tried to shield him and she was shot dead. Now it has turned out that she was only shot in the leg and is now in the custody of Pakistan authorities.

a) It was initially stated that Osama bin Laden had resisted and died in a firefight. Now it was being corrected to say that he was unarmed and did not resist. It has been rectified because there were no tell-tale signs of resistance in the room, such as bullet marks and blood trail, where Osama was supposedly shot.

c) Whole operation was conducted in 40 minutes in a three storied building. It seems they were shooting another Rambo movie for Hollywood. All experts of such operations would tell you that it was a white lie. Do we take it that guards had gone to sleep or had been given sleeping pills when commandos were slithering down from

helicopters? Inaction by the guards is a testimony of the involvement of ISI in this operation. Non-military audience might believe this but not those like me who conducted operations on militant hideouts for 20 years. d) Do we take it there were no guards? It does not stand to logic when someone tells you that the house had CCTV cameras. More so, if they had been made inactive or withdrawn, it only shows the complicity of ISI in this operation. I would rather say ISI role was more than co-operation.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

Factfile The Osama’s hideout was a three-storeyed building in the Abbottabad military cantonment and some 500 metres away from Pakistan’s ‘Kakul Military Academy’, which trains ‘would-be-army-officers’ for Pakistan army. Besides three army units, the area is the habitat of senior retired army / ISI officers. It is not easy for a civilian to construct such a big house without the knowledge and approval of military authorities. According to the available information, the construction of the house began in 2003 and was completed in 2005. It cost the owner some one million US dollars. It had CCTV cameras installed in the house. Spread over 3,000 square yards, house had 18 feet wall around it. It establishes the fact that ISI had kept him in safe custody, nearest to Islamabad but at a safe distance.

Judas act Was bin Laden betrayed by ISI of Pakistan? I think it is so. Remember, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, Director General of ISI, had recently visited USA for a strategic dialogue. Thus, there was a deal struck on Osama and Afghanistan. I see three possibilities of how this ‘Operation Osama’, with an alleged codeword “Geronimo-EKIA’ was conducted: 1. First, USA totally outwitted ISI and Pak army. It is possible but most improbable. Walking with a dead body in a military cantonment, which was a safe house and must have been under the prying eyes of Pak army, it was questionable. There has to be some kind of ISI collusion. I have following reasons: ■■ Abbottabad is heavily fortified cantonment with three army regiments and a military academy - located an hour’s drive from Islamabad. We all know that no one can construct a civil house within a cantonment without the approval of military authorities. This would tell you that Osama bin Laden was under the direct protection of Pakistan army and ISI. ■■ If we accept the above mentioned fact, then there was no question of US operation being conducted in such a computerised precision unless ISI had bartered away an old but a dying

militant who had served his purpose. Therefore there has been a secret deal between USA and Pakistan to barter away Osama. Pakistan not only did the job but assisted US military SEALS to escape.

Discrepancies Note the following: ■■ Three explosions and a heavy exchange of fire at the building, probably under watch since 2005, yet Pak army authorities were not alerted and they did not react. It does not stand to logic. ■■ It is stated that US SEALS allegedly walked away with the dead body, after destroying the malfunctioning helicopter. Where did they walk to? Of course, it was to their ‘facilitating base’ established by ISI in Abbottabad military garrison. ■■ I have had the experience of conducting raids on pin-pointed militant hideouts but it is not easy to finish off such an operation within 40 minutes, whatever US technical superiority, unless some insider was guiding them? 2. Two, he was already dead due to kidney failure and Pakistan bargained with USA for a dead body and rest was a drama, well managed by USA. But this is the least likely scenario. However there are some commentators who feel that Osama had probably died in 2002 and it was only a drama enacted now. But I do not agree with this. I think he had become a liability for Pakistan and he had to be gotten rid off. So the ISI did it in the cleverest underhand deal. 3. Three, he was betrayed by ISI and bartered for a deal over Afghanistan and possibly for Kashmir, too. A pliable regime for Pakistan in Afghanistan, would serve the long cherished dream of ‘strategic depth’ against India. Despite all denials from both sides, I consider this scenario the most likely. One of the two possibilities might be there. Firstly, Osama was already killed by ISI and later US Navy SEALS came and picked up his body by this drama of an operation. Or ISI, had not only guided the Navy SEALS but facilitated and provided them logistic and operational support. I bet on first possibility. My reasons are simple:

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

■■ ISI had fixed some kind of a meeting with Osama and he had asked for more milk and some sleeping suits for that day. (He was expecting some guests that day so, additional milk packets and some eight pajamas for the guests). Sure, there is something to it. This has been revealed by locals in TV interviews. ■■ There are no signs of struggle and resistance in the room and this has been stated by an army officer of Pakistan army to Geo News of Pakistan. There are no bullet marks or blood trail in the room, which would have given evidence of resistance. It seemed, Osama had expected some known guests (may be from ISI) and probably he was shot dead by some guest, if not the bodyguard. A question arises: Was he set-up? ■■ As claimed by the same officer, Osama was shot by his bodyguard at point blank range, allegedly not to allow him to fall live into USA hands. But I feel, he was killed by the bodyguard as a pre-planned signal between ISI and bodyguard who was purchased and later killed, too. I take it was an inside job, rather than of a military operation. ■■ One would also like to draw some inference from President of Pakistan, Asif Ali Zardari’s article in Washington Post on May 03, 2011, where he has obliquely hinted on facilitating this operation. He claimed that Pakistan played its part.

Quid pro quo for Kashmir Take it from me Osama has been bartered away by ISI for gains in Afghanistan and Kashmir. India has to watch out in the coming months, when USA / West would turn blind eyes to Pakistan’s mischief in Kashmir. This is the deal. This is why Pakistan had risked exposing itself to having him killed in Abbottabad military cantonment of Pakistan. ISI and Pak army know that whole world had already known of Osama’s presence in Pakistan. Therefore embarrassment, if any, was much lesser than the deal it has got. Those of you who think that it was a loss of face for Pakistan are sadly mistaken. ISI devised this clever way to get rid of him. Now the question arises as to why would Pakistan like to dispose off

Osama? The reason is simple that it had become cost prohibitive to keep him anymore under the mounting US pressure. His mounting bills of kidney problem had made him a liability. We all know that war on terror had fetched Pakistan between 2002 and 2010, some US$ 19.66 billion as part of a frontline State of this anti-terror war. It is estimated that some US$ 13.36 billion was for military aid, which was, though diverted somewhere else. USA knew of this misuse but turned a blind eye in hope of getting Osama, ‘enemy number one’ of USA.

As one analyst has observed that between 2002 and 2008, the haulage and cartage of US and NATO containers from Karachi to Kabul alone made US$ 500 million m per year for the military establishment and US$ 300 million per year for the militant groups. Thus, Osama was a hen that laid golden eggs for Pakistan. Someone has noted that in Islamabad ‘Al Qaeda’ was nick-named ‘Al-Faeda’ (profit) by some Pakistani bureaucrats. Thus, the boss of Al Qaeda, nay Al Faeda, had to be not only protected but kept in the safest of places. No place could have been more ideal than Abbottabad military cantonment. Pakistan army had hidden him there for five to six years. A medical unit is located in the cantonment to look after Osama’s kidney problem. There were three army regiments for immediate protection and safety of Osama. It would be foolish to think that Osama was not under the care of ISI or Pak Army. However, he had become a liability when Barack Obama became President of USA.

Obama wind of change We

must

note

three

changes

brought in by Obama administration to pressurise Pakistan. They were, namely: One, strings were tied to military aid by a Kerry-Lugar-Berman legislation and it made it harder for the military to capture the funds. Two, the Obama administration increased the number of drone strikes against targets in Pakistan, while increasing pressure on the Pakistani army to go after the Taliban groups in its tribal areas. Finally, by indicating a deadline for withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, Obama had drawn curtains on the usefulness of Al Qaeda (Al Faeda)

boss. Osama had served its purpose for Pakistan and he had to go, sooner or later. Thus, a deal was worked out between CIA director Panetta and Lt. General Ahmed Shuja Pasha of ISI some 20 days back when both met in USA. Such a clandestine operation was going to be a win-win situation for both. Leon Panetta’s statements on non-involvement of ISI are to befool and mislead the world. His slip is showing in his repeated clarifications on non-involvement of Pakistan and USA Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton’s assertion to continue strategic partnership with Pakistan over war in Afghanistan. Instead of questioning Pakistan, USA is mollycoddling it. What do you make of it?

by USA was an utter lie. Truth is somewhere else. I doubt if US could infiltrate its helicopters into such a safe place of a military cantonment without the prior knowledge and approval of Pak army / ISI. There are three army regiments besides a military academy. Besides, there is a medical unit, which I suspect was looking after Osama’s dialysis and kidney problem. Even if USA had surprised Pakistan military with this sudden blitzkrieg, still Pakistan military would have been alerted after explosions and exchange of fire. Then, quick reaction teams from Pak army would have been pressed into service. Funniest part of the US claim was that Osama’s body was carried away on foot. Surprising, such an incident taking place and Pak army was sleeping till US SEALs had walked away. Were US SEALs strolling in a Meena Bazar or operating in a military cantonment? US military operation might be a cover up game by Pakistan and USA. I suspect ISI had bartered him away for monetary gains and some kind of a deal over Afghanistan. There is something fishy about the whole thing. I reject the claim that Pakistan military / ISI was totally outwitted. This stance is to placate Pakistani public. I personally feel there has been an underhand deal where Mullah Omar, erstwhile supreme boss of Afghan Taliban, has been kept by ISI to facilitate USA to work out a deal with him over Afghanistan, thus allowing US troops to begin pulling out by July 2011. Pakistan has probably got its bigger pie in Afghanistan. India, are you watching this? Will the killing of Osama end international terrorism? If some people think so, they are sadly mistaken. Osama was a symptom of the disease not the disease itself, which in reality is the jihadi factories run by ISI with its Pan-Islamic motives. As long as ISI exists, world cannot breathe free of terrorism.

SEAL autopsy Now let me briefly touch upon the acclaimed military operation by US Navy SEALs. I do not question their capability and professionalism but the ease with which it has been stated to be carried out. I have conducted such raids on militant hideouts for 20 years and I know what is being claimed

The writer is an alumnus of National Defence Academy and commissioned into 3 Bihar battalion in June 1971. He is a graduate of Defence Services Staff College, Wellington and Army War College, Mhow. He has vast experience of handling militancy, terrorism and insurgency intimately for over 20 years in Nagaland, Assam, Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

Willy-nilly the world changed the night Osama bin Laden was shot through the head in his posh mansion in Abbottabad in the very heart of Pakistan and then taken and fed to the fishes in the North Arabian Sea. No trace of him was left. Except his ideology. And that could prove to be more difficult and time-consuming than the ten years it took to physically eliminate the tall cadaverous figure. They say you cannot kill an idea. America will have to try else the ghost of Osama could yet topple it from its pre-eminent position in global geopolitics. And China is waiting in the wings to take over from where Osama left. 50

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

Dr. Tej Pratap Singh

Impact on global geopolitics R

eligious extremism is the greatest menace to global peace, stability and security. Osama bin Laden, the founder of Al Qaeda, was the most popular face of global Islamic extremism. His killing in Operation Geronimo in the firefight with the US Navy SEALs on May 2, 2011 in the Pak garrison city of

Abbottabad marks the end of an era in the history of global jihad. With his death, the post-Osama era begins in the history of global jihad. It is still premature to say that bin Ladenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s death will cause disarray among the ranks of Al Qaeda and will pave the way for decline and eventual disappearance of global jihad. The reverse might also happen as the killing of Osama has enraged the vast majority of Islamic world and this might lead to more recruits and more pouring of the funds to achieve the unfulfilled goals of Osama bin Laden, who is being treated as a martyr by the vast majority of the Islamic world.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

More dangerous in death? Dead Osama can be more dangerous than the living Osama. In the post 9/11 world, Osama was on the run to save his life. He was reduced to a figurehead and was no longer posing any significant threat to American or western interests. Osama had also lost the effective control of the organisation he had founded. He was holed up in Pakistan and occasionally used to make his presence felt through his recorded video-tapes, which were posted on jihadi websites and telecast by channels

followers were planning and executing terrorist activities on their own without much guidance from bin Laden. So his death is not going to bring any significant change at the operational level. Conversely, after his death, the possibility of terrorist attack globally has increased manifold as his followers will try to avenge the death of their beloved leader. At the ideological level, the situation is worse than operational level. At least at operational level, jihadist elements are globally demoralised. Their morale

Osama renounced his luxurious life in Saudi Arabia and preferred to fight in the mountains of Afghanistan for the glory and honour of Islam.

Impact on Af-Pak Though death of bin Laden has impacted the whole world but the most affected part of world is Af-Pak in American lingo. Osama was created in Afghanistan and ironically by the US intelligence agency CIA which eventually executed the operation Geronimo to kill the Frankstein it had

further their foreign policy objectives of containment of the Soviet Union. The global community is worried that in the post-Osama period, the US might pull out from the Afghanistan and thus pave the way for Taliban takeover with the active connivance of Pakistan. There is American public pressure that since the mission Osama bin Laden has been accomplished, there is no point in the continuation of the US forces in Afghanistan. The US forces had gone to Afghanistan in its Global War On

by 2014. With the death of Osama, it seems the US will strictly adhere to this schedule. The US economy is also in precarious condition. The US has hit US$ 14.3 trillion debt ceiling, rising fiscal deficit and other financial constraints have compelled the Obama administration to resort to belt tightening. Withdrawal from the Afghanistan and Iraq can help the US economy to tide over its financial constraints to some extent. The war weary US public is also no longer in favour of continuing presence of the US forces in Afghanistan after the death of

global Islamic extremism, but the killing of Osama in Pakistan has exposed it. All those who mattered in Pakistan from former military dictator Parvez Musharraf to President Zardari, Prime Minister Gilani, present military chief Parvez Kayani and ISI chief Shuja Pasha all had denied the presence of bin Laden in Pakistan territory. Some Pak leader went to the extent of claiming that bin Laden was no longer alive. The world was astonished to know that most dreaded global terrorist was living under the very nose of Pak civil-military authorities, only few

bin Laden. If this happens, then it will be second time in the recent history of Afghanistan that US has dumped them when their main enemy was fixed. It happened in 1989, when America dumped Afghanistan in the wake of Soviet withdrawal. This led to anarchy in Afghanistan and eventual emergence of Taliban and mayhem in the US (9/11). If Afghanistan is being dumped again in the wake of Osama’s death, the history might repeat itself and global community will again pay heavy price as it did in 2001.

hundred meters away from Pakistan Military Academy and few miles away from Pak capital Islamabad. It was popularly believed that Osama was living in some cave in the mountainous region of Afghanistan-Pakistan but he was found living with his three wives and children in the relative comfort of Pakistani city of Abbottabad for the last five years.

The question of leadership of Al Qaeda, however, is not very significant. Al Qaeda is not a monolithic organisation. In the post 9/11 world, Al Qaeda has been turned into a franchise. Its affiliates are more important than the parent organisation. These terrorist outfits only derive their ideological inspiration from Al Qaeda. They owe neither their existence nor sustenance to Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda has no control over them. In the name of Islamic solidarity (Ummah - all Muslims constitute one larger community) and jihad, they extend moral and material support to each other. Death of bin Laden has in no way weakened these autonomous jihadi organisations like al-Jazeera. Global community was divided over the genuineness of the tapes and whether bin Laden was still alive or dead. He was completely isolated from the world in the post 9/11 period. His pathetic condition can be gauged by the fact that few trusted couriers were the only link between bin Laden and outside world. These couriers used to deliver his messages to his followers and the world and keep him informed about happenings in the world. One of these couriers eventually provided the lead, which led to the CIA operation to kill him in his hideout.

Impact on global jihad Global impact of bin Laden’s death can be assessed at two levels: operational and ideological. At both these levels, there is not going to be any significant changes because of the death of the Al Qaeda founder. At operational level, bin Laden was no longer in command. American hunt for bin Laden in the post 9/11 period, had made it impossible for him to coordinate the activities of his organisation. Without telephone, Internet or satellite phones, it was difficult for bin Laden to be in touch with his followers. His

has weakened and undermined to some extent with the death of their leader, but nothing of the sort has happened at the ideological level. You can kill a person but not the idea. Knowing this fact very well, Che Guevara the famous communist guerrilla fighter challenged his killers to shoot him as he knew that his killing will not lead to the killing of his ideology. In fact after his death, Che Guevara was confident that his ideology and cause which he espoused will emerge so powerfully that it will become impossible for his enemies to defeat it. Che Guevara has been immortalised by his followers. He is still remembered fondly by the Communist rebels globally and is still their hero, who has to be emulated by them. He is the great source of inspiration for the left guerrillas. Dead Che is more powerful than living Che. Same thing might happen in the case of bin Laden. He will be a great source of inspiration and motivation for would-be jihadists. His supreme sacrifice in the fight against ‘greatest Satan’ US and other infidel enemies (Jews, Christians, Hindus and even Shia Muslims) will inspire youths in the Islamic world to espouse his cause and continue the fight began by him.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

created. Osama is the best known product of project political Islam, jointly conceived by the US President Ronald Reagan and Pakistan military dictator Ziu-ul Haq, with the active financial support of Saudi Arabia. Project political Islam was designed and executed under the joint CIA-ISI stewardship to humiliate and oust Soviet Union from Afghanistan. The US brought jihadists from different parts of the world in Pakistan to train and arm them to enable them to fight Soviet forces in Afghanistan so that Soviet Union can be taught a lesson and humiliation of Vietnam can be avenged. Pakistan joined this project to use political Islam in its fight against India to wrest Kashmir and have strategic depth and asset in Afghanistan. Taliban is another by-product of this project, which is a strategic asset for Pakistan, whose rule in Afghanistan will provide the long sought Pak strategic depth in the region. Jihadists, who were called Mujahideen by the US-Pakistan and its allies, were trained to fight the Soviet forces, but later they have turned their guns against the US and the west after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The US has paid and is still paying a very heavy price for using jihadists to

Terrorism (GWOT) to nab bin Laden, the architect of 9/11, in which more than 3,000 people had died. With the death of bin Laden, justice has been delivered to the victims of 9/11. Stabilisation of Afghanistan and nation building is not the task of the US led NATO forces. This task has to be carried out by Afghan people and their government. The US and its allies will provide external support. If this happens then Osama bin Laden will succeed in achieving his objectives of ousting US forces from Muslim world. His life mission, which could not be fulfilled during his life time, might be fulfilled after his death. This will be another irony of GWOT. Osama’s death will hasten the process of American withdrawal from Afghanistan which is going to begin from July 2011 and will be completed

Impact on Pakistan Pakistan is another country which is going to be significantly impacted by the killing of Osama. There were earlier only unsubstantiated allegations that Pakistan is aiding and abetting

Osama’s killing in the vicinity of Pak Military Academy proves either complicity or incompetence of Pak intelligence agencies. It seems more probable that bin Laden was living near military academy with the help of Pak army and intelligence agencies. If it was not so then it proves that Pak intelligence agencies are the most incompetent and armed forces most casual in their approach that they did

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

not notice a sprawling bungalow, so close to their training academy, when several terrorist attacks have occurred against their military installations. The first possibility seems closer to the truth.

Strategic nexus hit The first casualty of Osama’s killing has been the US-Pak strategic partnership. It is said that Pak since its inception is being governed by three A’s (Allah, Army and America). Out of these three, two A’s viz. Allah and Army are still relevant in the governance of Pakistan. Third A i.e. America is in the process of being marginalised in the governance of Pakistan. Since 9/11, the US has offered more than US$ 20 billion as aid to Pakistan to win its support in its GWOT. But Pakistan instead of helping the US was undermining and weakening its efforts by harbouring and sheltering all wanted terrorists the US was looking for. The US no longer trusts Pakistan and its intelligence agencies. The US distrust of Pak has reached such a level that the US did not inform Pak in its secret operation to kill Osama in Pakistan’s own territory. Unilateral US action has angered Pakistan but US knew fully well that informing Pakistan means the failure of the mission as Pak intelligence agencies would have tipped off Osama and he would have escaped from his Abbottabad hideout.

Impact on China Pakistan’s ‘all weather friend’ China is skilfully exploiting the situation emerging out of Osama’s killing to its advantage to increase its global profile. When Pakistan was being condemned globally for its complicity and duplicity, China was the only significant country which extended full support to Pakistan and appreciated Pak efforts and sacrifices in the fight against global terrorism. Pak knows well that in the wake of Osama killing in Pak territory, sooner or later the US aid and diplomatic support is going to slow down and in this situation China can be a substitute for the US. China also wants to play assertive role in its backyard, where till this date its rival the US has been the most dominant power. American withdrawal from the region and reduced role in the affairs of the region suits well to the Chinese

strategic interest in the region. Pakistan’s geo-strategic position in the region can be of great help to China to play assertive role in the region. If China can replace the US in the region it will enhance its position in the eyes of global community and will fulfil long cherished Chinese desire of emerging as a global power at par with the US. In zero-sum game of international geopolitics, the loss of America will be the gain of China. Growing US-Pak differences have created an opportunity for Chinese diplomacy to emerge as a dominant power in South West Asia. If this happens then China will emerge the most dominant power in Asia replacing the extra-regional power the US, which treats itself as a ‘resident Asian power’.

Impact on India The US Operation Geronimo deep inside the territory of Pakistan has galvanised the Indian security establishment and public opinion. There was muted demand that India should also launch US type operation to nab Indian fugitives who have taken shelter in Pakistan, so that justice can be delivered to the victims of terror attacks in India. Chiefs of Indian armed forces declared their capability to launch US type operation to capture Indian fugitives in Pakistan. This led to sabre-rattling between the armed forces of India and Pakistan, which was eventually laid to rest by the statement of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that India has no intention of launching the US type of operation to capture its fugitives hiding in Pakistan.

Impact on Arab world Surprisingly the death of Osama has not impacted much the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the home of Osama bin Laden. MENA is currently under the spell of democracy movement popularly known as Arab spring. Democracy movement in MENA has so far been secular and non-sectarian. The protestors have taken care not to give it religious colour. Death of Osama has no significant impact on these protest movements. Protest leaders have by and large ignored the death of Osama and have neither condemned nor appreciated his killing. Osama was also the enemy of Shia Muslims and his Al Qaeda also targeted Shia mosques and leaders like

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

Jews, Christians and Hindus. Osama practised and propagated Wahabi Islam and any deviation from it was frowned upon by him. Because of this anti-Shia attitude, countries like Iran and groups like Hezbollah maintained their silence.

Impact on global governance The manner of Osama killing has raised many questions related to the global norms of sovereignty, independence, intervention, territorial inviolability, human rights abuse and extra-judicial killings. US Navy SEALs violated Pak sovereignty, independence, and territory by conducting raids deep inside Pakistan without its consent. This is a flagrant violation of international law and clear case of intervention by the US in Pakistan. This is American unilateralism, exceptionalism and triumphalism in the worst form.

bin Laden’s courier was obtained from the detainees of Guantanomo Bay through torture. This lead eventually led to the tracing of bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad. Treatment meted out to the Guantanomo Bay prisoners were condemned globally by the human right organisations and people throughout the world. Obama had made it an issue of his Presidential election campaign and has committed during electioneering that closure of Guantanomo Bay prison will be his top priority. However, he is yet to fulfil his promise.

global jihad and complete the mission of bin Laden. The US Navy SEALs’ operation to kill bin Laden had been codenamed ‘Geronimo’. Naming of the operation after the eighteenth century legendry Native American fighter Geronimo is full of symbolism. Geronimo fought against white settlers of America and was eventually killed by immigrant Americans. This was hailed as the victory of immigrants over the challenge posed by the Native Americans. Osama is the 21st century counterpart of the

International law forbids extra-judicial killing. All Nazi war criminals were punished only after their fair trial at Nuremburg. Even Israel after capturing Nazi criminals responsible for holocaust from Argentina and other Latin American countries, put them on fair trial. They were hanged only after the judicial verdict. Trial also brings out the truth behind the crime. Nothing of the sort happened in the case of bin Laden. US Navy SEALs made no sincere effort to capture unarmed bin Laden. If bin Laden’s 12 year old daughter is to be believed, her father was captured first and then executed. This kind of behaviour was not expected from the champion of democracy, human rights and civil liberty. Osama, after his death, was also deprived from decent burial as per his religious rites and his body was thrown in the sea. This is also against the global civilisational norms. Capture and trial of bin Laden would have unravelled the mystery behind the worst terrorist attack of world history. His trial would have also brought to book those, who have aided and abetted the crime but so far has gone unpunished. In the wake of killing of Osama, some Americans have gone to the extent of justifying torture in the Guantanomo Bay detention centre to extract information from the prisoners. The vital clue regarding

Symbolism Perception is far more significant than reality. Osama symbolised global jihad and so the US was careful not to leave any trace of bin Laden. Therefore, he was buried in the deep sea, so that no memorial can be erected in his memory. US was afraid that if bin Laden was buried anywhere on the land, his grave will become a potent symbol of global jihad. For jihadists bin Laden’s grave will become a place of pilgrimage. However, despite all US precautions, dead bin Laden has emerged far more powerful than the living bin Laden. His death which is being treated as martyrdom by the Islamic world is radicalising, motivating and inspiring Muslim youths throughout the world to join the

18th century Geronimo. Killing of Geronimo and bin Laden symbolises the massive hunt of America against its enemies, who were eventually traced and killed.

Impact on Al Qaeda It is being said that with the death of bin Laden, Al Qaeda will be weakened and will decline during the course of time. There might be war of succession in Al Qaeda. It was popularly believed that Egyptian doctor Ayman al-Zawahiri will succeed Osama in case of his death. Zawahiri though lacked the charisma of Osama but is said to be real brain behind 9/11 and other Al Qaeda attacks against western interests. During Osama’s time he was said to be second in command. But a

lesser known Egyptian has temporarily been nominated to head Al Qaeda and not Zawahiri raising doubt about the war of succession in Al Qaeda. If this is the case then it is good news for the US. The question of leadership of Al Qaeda, however, is not very significant. Al Qaeda is not a monolithic organisation. In the post 9/11 world, Al Qaeda has been turned into a franchise. Its affiliates are more important than the parent organisation. Al Qaeda in Arab Peninsula (AQAP), Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), Al-Sahab in Somalia, Hamas in West Bank and Gaza, Taliban, Quetta Shura, Haqqani Network in Afghanistan, Tahrik-e-Taliban, Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad in Pakistan, Jemaah Islamiyah in Phillipines and Indonesia, etc. are well known affiliates of Al Qaeda. These terrorist outfits only derive their ideological inspiration from Al-Qaeda. They owe neither their existence nor sustenance to Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda has no control over them. In the name of Islamic solidarity (Ummah - all Muslims constitute one larger community) and jihad, they extend moral and material support to each other. Death of bin Laden has in no way weakened these autonomous jihadi organisations. Osama was the symbol of Islamic jihad. His death is no doubt a great shock to Islamic jihad but his death will not put an end to it. Osama or no Osama, jihad will go on. Other foot soldiers will rise and assume the leadership and with their death, they will pass on baton to others. Precisely because of this reason, President Obama declared that Osama is dead but the global war on terror has not come to an end. Death of Osama is merely a victory, a significant victory, in the long war on terror. War on terror still remains inconclusive. Global community has to wage a long war against it only then menace of religious extremism can be exterminated from this world.

The writer is Associate Professor, Dept. of Political Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India. He has been awarded Faculty Research Fellowship by Shastri Indo-Canadian Institute (SICI) and Charles Wallace Visiting Fellowship by Cambridge University. He is also Salzburg Global Seminar Fellow.

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The US decision to find out how many within the Pakistan Armed Forces have jihadi connections strong enough to be part of a conspiracy to harbour and provide safe havens to wanted terrorists could hit a brick wall in much the way attempts to derail the Times Square bombing and the trial of those accused of killing US citizens during the Mumbai attack of 26/11 are currently underway. However, after the demonstration of US tendency for decisive action it can begin the roll back of the jihadi tendencies that have now become a part of Pakistan’s military ethos.

t is being said that you cannot kill an idea. But one can, most certainly, clean out the cradle. The cradle of Islamic jihad is the Pakistan army and its hatchet-arm the Inter-Services Intelligence has expanded its territorial claims into Afghanistan within a concept of “strategic depth” that has taken on all that was worst in Nazi Germany’s Fascist framework called “lebensraum” (literally, living space for German studs to produce more of the pure race and proliferate). It began as a job assigned to the ISI to execute so that Islamic Mujahideen could drive out the Soviet army from Afghanistan with the weapons and dollars supplied through the ISI. After that, left to its own devices by an America that thought its national interest had been served with the Soviet troop withdrawal, Pakistan turned the jihad into a national mission for control of the Muslim Ummah and extend its hegemony eastwards into India through the Khalistani movement for Sikh separatism and, when that failed, under the Islamist flag into Jammu and Kashmir.

Turning point Further afield, it tried to extend its influence into the former Central Asian Republics of the Soviet Union which, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, became collectively the Commonwealth of Independent States. For this it used the Taliban which it helped install in Kabul and the Al Qaeda that burgeoned into an umbrella organisation for dozens of terror subsidiaries spread around the globe. It was its strategic mistake that it allowed the Al Qaeda to hit the World Trade Towers and the Pentagon in 2001 for which it is currently paying

the price for hiding the mastermind of that act, Osama bin Laden, in the luxurious and sylvan surroundings of the Abbottabad cantonment (and not in a cave along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border which it used as a red herring to divert the US Central Intelligence Agency from its quarry). The slaying of Osama by US Navy SEALs proves that Islamabad made a quick calculation of the credits and debits before jumping onto the Global War On Terrorism (GWOT) bandwagon for fear of being bombed into the Stone Age if it did not. If George Bush the second thought it fit to hold out so blatant a threat of massive retaliation in 2001 then President Barack Obama has ten years of undiluted perfidy as raison d’etre to clean out the Augean Stable that is the Pakistan army. Hercules diverted a river to do the job. Barack Obama too will have to be equally innovative to rid Pakistan of the virus of Islamic fundamentalism of which the Pakistan army is the fountainhead and, to a large extent very justifiably write The End to GWOT by 2014 as he withdraws US troops from Afghanistan after obliterating the mistakes committed in that nation over the past few decades.

American anger For Obama the way to deal with the Pakistan army and the Inter-Services Intelligence is to divert the current anger in Congress for being taken by Pakistan for a long walk up the garden path even as it found ways of fooling its intelligence agencies about the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden. Barack Obama must use the euphoria of the successful raid that finally got Osama to good advantage by melding

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the rage over Pakistani perfidy and the voices that are calling for restraint to force Pakistan to detoxifying its future generations. This must be done by cleaning out its school curriculum, removing the Hudood and Blasphemy laws from its statute books and releasing Pakistan civil society from the bondage of Islamic fundamentalism. It could prove to be less costly in terms of dollars if a fraction of the billions currently given to the Pakistan army is used for this project.

Chinese beartrap Threats are being held out by the Pakistan army (ISI chief Lt. General Ahmed Shuja Pasha hinted at it during his visit to Washington) that Pakistan will recover whatever losses caused by the US aid cutoff through the Chinese who appear eager to displace the US as the sole Super Power. America should draw the Chinese into the Afghanistan-Pakistan beartrap and make it as expensive for Beijing as it has been for Washington both politically and financially. Much as the elite in Pakistan are in the habit of referring to China as the “all-weather friend” the truth is that the people of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir have no love lost for the Chinese. They have made the lives of Chinese engineers working on the expansion of the Karakoram Highway miserable by frequently holding up traffic and attacking the Chinese. It is not for nothing that China has brought in nearly 10,000 troops disguised as labourers to clean up large portions of the Highway affected by landslides that have caused the formation of a massive lake on the Hunza River because the locals are none too willing to work

Detox Pak army and ISI under the Chinese. In other places in the Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province (former NWFP) Chinese engineers have been kidnapped and killed by Pakistanis. There is a belief in diplomatic circles that part of the rather strident position

taken by the US when Gen. Shuja Pasha visited Washington was because of an undisguised attitude displayed by the Pakistanis that the US was a nation in decline and that China could replace the US in Pakistani strategic calculus. There is one school of thought that is emerging from the media smokescreen

created to reduce the embarrassment to the civilian government of Pakistan that holds the view that the US officials told the Pakistan Army bluntly that they knew where Osama is hiding and that they are coming in to get him. If the Pakistanis interfered they would be dumped into the Arabian

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Sea along with Osama bin Laden. The Pakistanis saw that discretion was the better part of mindless valour. And as Eliza Doolittle’s stepfather sang in the Broadway and movie hit “My Fair Lady” “What are a few pennies to you ... and what is Eliza to me” (so you can keep her). All this was exactly as it was when Bush told Musharraf on the phone about the consequences of non-cooperation in GWOT. Musharraf jumped and made it look like an act of sainthood.

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Dr. Rajiv Nayan

Jihadis in Pak army So far as the perfidious behaviour of the Pakistan army and its Inter-Services Intelligence is concerned, the US has already asked for a list of those with jihadi connections and inclinations. It is not going to get it. It is very naive on the part of the Obama administration to expect that the jihadis in the Pakistani armed forces will betray each other. It will have to make its own list of culprits. Frankly all of them have been on the good books of the American military establishment and can be identified. Top of the list would be Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani who showed his jihadi inclination when he refused permission to the US to interrogate the former Air Vice Marshal of the Pakistan Air Force after his son Faisal Shahzad was arrested for the Times Square bombing that fizzled. Such camaraderie in the face of international terrorism is prima facie revealing. Kayani also led the campaign against the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Act which enjoined the Pakistan army to give an accounting for the money released in the US aid package for Pakistani participation in the GWOT. The US can read author-journalist Gerald Posner’s books on the Pakistan air force, Al Qaeda, Saudi nexus for the supply of arms and money to the Al Qaeda. Attempts have long been made to paint Posner as a “conspiracy theorist” and dismiss his findings into how the Pakistan armed forces work in conjunction with the many terrorist organisations operating from its soil which, given the unilateral use of drone aircraft to get at Pakistani, Afghan terrorist commanders in the Af-Pak belt, is confirmation of what the Clinton and Bush administrations had long suspected but did not act upon. Posner has written about the mysterious

deaths of the Saudi princes involved in the contact with the PAF and Al Qaeda and said that aircraft crash that killed Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Mushaf Ali Mir was an act of sabotage. All the Director-Generals of the Inter-Services Intelligence over the past three decades have been party to the conspiracies and the acts of terrorism that have occurred within the region. In most cases their names have not surfaced in print or official documents but in the case of the Mumbai attack of 26/11 names of serving army officers have been recorded in the evidence that the US has presented in its courts. It is amazing that in an attempt to prevent the US courts from admitting the cases the Pakistan government at the behest of the military establishment has held out the threat of “pouring gasoline on fire” in relations with India. It goes to show to what extent the Pakistan military establishment will go to protect itself and its members. The US and its allies can take steps to set up a commission of inquiry on very much the same lines as the UN

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commissions to inquire into the deaths of former iconic Prime Minister of Pakistan Benazir Bhutto and Lebanese Premier Rafique Hariri. Most importantly the entire curriculum and military practices of the Pakistan armed forces must be reviewed and all jihadi practices be expunged. America will have to take the lead in this because it was to facilitate the war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan that military dictator Zia-ul Haq imported the potent poison called Wahabism from Saudi Arabia and set the Pakistani armed forces on the path of international terrorism. It was in this fertile cradle that jihad grew to be a global monster. If it is cleansed and if the baby happens to be thrown out with the bathwater no one will shed a tear.

The writer has covered all wars with Pakistan as War Correspondent and reported from the conflict zones in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia in South East Asia as well as from Afghanistan. He is author of “India: The Security Dilemma”.

The manner in which the world’s most wanted terrorist was living in comfort in the heart of Pakistan raises grave concerns about Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, its security and the possibility that it could fall into terrorist hands. The debate is beset with several fallacies one of which is that there is a section of the Pakistan armed forces that is amenable or has a natural proclivity to divert nuclear materials for terrorist purposes. A section? The whole lot are jihadis under the skin and it is debateable whether the Pakistan Air Force is more rabid or the Army. The use of terrorists from behind the safety of the nuclear shield explains the breadth and depth of the penetration of the jihadi culture not just in the military establishment but also among politicians and civil society.

he Geronimo operation resulting in the death of the world’s most wanted terrorist—Osama bin Laden—in Abbottabad, Pakistan is forcing the world and the strategic community to start a new phase of discussions on a host of issues, including nuclear terrorism. Quite interestingly, just about a week before the operation which killed Osama, one of the key Al Qaeda leaders had threatened to release ‘nuclear hailstorm’ over the killer(s). Some American writers in their op-eds may have feared about the future attack with nuclear weapons by Al Qaeda and its cells; in reality, the retaliatory nuclear attack on the US has not taken place as of now.

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The fact that Osama’s hiding place was near not just Islamabad but also more importantly, it was hardly a mile away from Pakistan’s Military Academy must make the international community think about the link between the Pakistani nuclear establishment and the terror groups sponsored by the infamous Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Pakistani army. If a number of writings are raising serious questions about the Pakistani complicity in sheltering Osama in Pakistan, there are equal number of motivated writings which are trying to give an impression that Pakistam may be unaware of Osama’s presence. Also, the world is yet to figure out whether Pakistan was informed about the US mission or not.

Questions on nukes In the light of ongoing media obfuscation plan of the US and Pakistan, it is indeed imperative to raise some questions relating to nuclear terrorism and Pakistan’s complicity as well as vulnerability. The first question may come up: Did Al Qaeda really have a plan to arm itself with nuclear weapons, or for that matter, Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs)? Is it possible for it to acquire nuclear weapons? Will Pakistan help it in acquiring nuclear weapons? As for the intention of acquiring nuclear weapons, no doubt, the terrorist organisation led by Osama would have liked to have any lethal weapon. Many analysts describe nuclear terrorism as a low probable high consequences threat. Many argue that Al Qaeda, Taliban and all such Islamic terror organisations would not use WMDs. This line of thinking maintains that such organisations would either rely on traditional terror attacks or innovative mechanisms employed for the incidents like 9/11. As it is under international surveillance, it would not go for a huge infrastructure required for developing nuclear weapons. However, several detained terrorists did confess that they had plans to use chemical and biological weapons. Actually, low-technology involvement of chemical weapons may become an instrument of terror. Similarly, biological weapons also do not require a huge infrastructure.

Rationale for use of WMDs Again, the issue comes up why a terrorist would like to use complicated weapons such as biological or chemical weapons. The international community has no definite answer to tactical use of WMDs in Al Qaeda terror operations. Any terrorist organisation may use terror tactics like bomb blasts to draw attention to its cause. When a conventional method stops inviting attention, a terrorist organisation may ponder using non-conventional tools like WMDs, possibly merely to attract attention. WMDs could be an option which may be exercised in special circumstances. Al Qaeda and Osama never had any moral or ethical qualms in using weapons to kill even Muslims. So, the mixed population factor which in traditional analysis should deter an Islamic organisation espousing the Islamic cause attacking Muslims, does not apply to the terror network sponsored by Al Qaeda. One of the Al Qaeda leaders claimed in April 2011 that it had stashed nuclear weapons in Europe. There is no confirmed report where in Europe nuclear weapons had been dumped. Or whether nuclear weapons in the Al Qaeda hands really exist. However, it is clear that the Al Qaeda has been trying to get nuclear weapons.

Osama’s pronouncements

use nuclear weapons. However, one may debate the Al Qaeda strategy of ‘latent illness’ and ‘widespread panic’ as an effective tool for championing their cause.

Network and stockpiles In 2004, an Egyptian Sharif al-Masri was taken into custody. During interrogation, he apparently disclosed that Abu Al-Libi who was a Libyan had all the crucial information about Osama’s plan for the acquisition of nuclear weapons. He also told interrogators that Abu Al-Libi had informed him that the nuclear bomb’s operatives “would be Europeans of Arab or Asian descent”. Several arrested terrorists revealed that Osama had uranium through its network. The network had people from Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan and many other countries. In one of the incidents, it came to the notice of the Yemeni authorities that uranium worth US$ 5,00,000 somehow had reached Osama. Another arrested terrorist told that upto three canisters of uranium were supplied to Al Qaeda for weapons purposes. In yet another incident, an arrested terrorist informed that during the Taliban regime, Osama had procured uranium from outside and after the change of the Taliban regime he had buried it somewhere in Afghanistan.

On December 23, 1998 in an interview to the Time magazine, Osama explicitly stated his desire to acquire nuclear and chemical weapons. Osama told, “Acquiring weapons for the defence of Muslims is a religious duty. If I have indeed acquired these weapons, then I thank God for enabling me to do so. And if I seek to acquire these weapons, I am carrying out a duty. It would be a sin for Muslims not to try to possess the weapons that would prevent the infidels from inflicting harm on Muslims.”

In 2006, one of the regional branches of Al Qaeda was suspected of kidnapping the employees of the French nuclear company Areva. Analysts have attributed several motives to the incident. Procurement of nuclear device is naturally one of the factors ascribed to the kidnapping of Areva officials. The arrest of terrorists also revealed that Al Qaeda had a plan to buy a ship which would have carried among other items uranium from “countries along the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea”. These arrested terrorists also divulged the plan for use of dirty bomb.

Once again, on December 24, 1998, in an interview to BBC, he confirmed his efforts to acquire nuclear and chemical weapons. He also said that how it would use these weapons would be decided later. In 2008, Zawahiri who is tipped to take over the mantle after Osama’s departure argued that his terror campaign had received fatwa to

There are some WikiLeaks documents which indicate towards the US concern for setting up of ‘a network of nuclear scientists and military officers called Ummah Tameer Nau, ‘to assist in spreading the modern achievements of science and technology among Muslims’. Some US think tanks and research centers like

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about security of its nuclear weapons and materials. One of the US Senators, Robert Casey, underscored that the entire Osama episode demonstrates an “apparent incompetence” of the Pakistani government. He also said that it “does not inspire confidence in the ability of Pakistan’s governing or security institutions to oversee their nuclear weapons programme.” The same thinking is emanating from the academic community. Harvard University’s Belfer Center Managing the Atom Project have also underlined the attempts of terrorists to acquire nuclear weapons. The US intelligence, according to a WikiLeaks cable, has great deal of information about Al Qaeda’s endeavours to procure nuclear materials. The US is more tightlipped when it comes to revealing the linkage of Osama and Pakistan.

Pak connection As the world is reluctant to believe that Pakistan authorities did not know about the presence of Osama in Pakistan, it is also not ready to accept that Pakistani nuclear scientists and army which is really controlling nuclear weapons had no connection with Osama’s terror network. Time and again, official statements from different countries come and reports of different academic centers underscore that Pakistan nuclear arsenals are under danger. Some believe and express that Al Qaeda operatives may lay their hands on Pakistani nuclear weapons. A section of the international community does point to the complicity of a section of the Pakistani atomic establishment. For more than a decade, reports are coming about the association of Pakistani scientists and a section of army with the jihadis. Some sympathetic Western writings have also acknowledged that the physics departments of some universities and army of Pakistan are infiltrated.

Obfuscation However, the pre-dominant reaction in the international community after the operation Geronimo is that Pakistan is worrying only about security of arsenals assuming that the Pakistani nuclear establishment would not cooperate with Al Qaeda. It just asks some explanation

A Harvard University scholar, Olli Heinonen who earlier worked for the IAEA and on A. Q. Khan and the Pakistani proliferation network for long, gave a statement: “There is very little assurance that nuclear materials and facilities are fully under [Pakistani] government control.” He advocated technology and security assurance to Pakistan but wanted Pakistan to “stop production of fissile material for military purposes, commit to a moratorium on nuclear testing and provide full disclosure of nuclear proliferation activities involving Iran, Libya, North Korea and Syria.” In fact, the US and the world have this concern ever since Pakistan procured nuclear weapons clandestinely and declared it openly after India had announced its nuclear tests in May 1998. The concern gets intensified at times. After 9/11 incidents, the political turmoil, after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and now we have noticed the world becoming worried about nuclear Pakistan and gradually delinking it with India. All realise that the Pakistani case is different from India and it is sui generis.

US ambivalence However, on each occasion, the US establishment keeps making error. In the name of securing weapons which do not fall in the hands of jihadi elements, Pakistan kept extracting concessions from Americans. Quite possibly, the US authorities may have more information on Pakistani nuclear weapons, but they never seem confident about security of weapons. In fact, this uncertainty led to the convening of 2010 Nuclear Security Summit. Unfortunately, the US government is making the same old unsure statement about the Pakistani nuclear weapons stockpile now.

What the US and the world should do is to come out of inertia which allowed Osama to live in Pakistan and the Al Qaeda network to operate from Pakistani soil. The repeated solution in technological, security and financial assistance would not improve the situation as the Osama case demonstrates. Instead it would further complicate it. Pakistan will continue to blackmail the world. Encouraged by the success of operation Geronimo, some analysts in the US are exploring ‘snatch and run’ operation for even Pakistani nuclear weapons. Some informal briefings from defence department, published in some influential and resourceful places, indicate that the US Pentagon has a plan to undertake this kind of exercise. It seems it is not undertaking it because it may not have the complete intelligence, though it is being hinted that it may go for it in the event of ‘extremists coup’. Pakistani nuclear warheads are dispersed so that any Indian attack does not destroy the complete stockpile. Some reports denote that Pakistani warheads are stored deep inside the country to escape any attack. The Osama episode clearly shows that Al Qaeda has reach everywhere means even deep inside the country. The dispersed nuclear arsenals are not only vulnerable to falling in wrong hands but also it is complicating gathering of intelligence for the US. Even supporters of the idea that the Pakistani nuclear stockpile is well protected by the professional Pakistani army would admit the possibility of the Al Qaeda infiltration at the mid-level. Corruption is yet another channel of terrorists entry into the Pakistani nuclear storage. Nuclear materials may be another weak area. The unorthodox US approach demonstrated in capturing and killing Osama should be extended to the nuclear realm as well. The US needs to wake up and act. The writer is a Senior Research Associate at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi since 1993, where he specialises in export control, non-proliferation and arms control. He was a Visiting Research Fellow at Japan Institute of International Affairs, Tokyo, where he published his monograph Non-Proliferation Issues in South Asia.

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Suddenly we remember Indira Gandhi! Justifiably, because she was the epitome of the geopolitical midwife. Never in the history of warfare has so much been achieved in such a short timeframe as was the creation of Bangladesh. In terms of execution this was, in many ways, a Special Operation of its own kind. The man who did it with such panache, General Sam Menakshaw was in the habit of telling newsmen and hence the world at large, that he told Mrs. G that the time was not right to strike. She agreed and gave him time. After that Sam knew he had no option but to deliver. That’s leadership. And that is why we remember her today. There is something that needs to be put in context. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during his recent visit to Kabul doused the controversy that was developing over India’s ability to do a ‘Geronimo’. It was politic up to a point. However, it is in Afghanistan that India’s ability at power projection is to be gauged. It is there that India’s most vital interests are developing. How to get there to protect those interests across hostile frontiers is a mental bridge Indian leadership will have to prepare to cross. 62

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n the wake of the raid by United States Navy SEALs that ended in the killing of Osama bin Laden, a question that has occupied mediaspace in our country is whether we are capable of doing similar strikes. That question which was by no means discussed in hushed tones in India was also expectedly heard in Pakistan, who (equally expectedly) reacted in intemperate, rhetorical and even chauvinistic manner that we have become so accustomed to. A professional view on the capabilities of our armed forces, expressed by our Chief of the Army Staff, also drew xenophobic rejoinder from Pakistan’s military hierarchy. The headline-hungry print media and the breaking news-hungry visual media were quick to make capital of it. This is not a trivial matter of mere media’s sensationalism and, therefore, an honest assessment of our capability to carry out raids beyond our borders.

Lt. Gen. (Retd.) V. G. Patankar

Operation Geronimo: Post-mortem There are several factors that go into making up of military operational capabilities. In the raid at Abbottabad, that is being referred to as Operation Geronimo, some of the important aspects involved would have been as follows: a) Intelligence Preparation. A highly focused and meticulous intelligence gathering operation to determine the possible location of OBL. b) Analysis. Painstakingly thorough intelligence analysis leading to deductions and, in turn, to credible possibilities. c) Decision-making. This was no ordinary raid; the stakes were of strategic proportion and hence very high. As the intelligence picture began to build up, a possible option of a raid would have been considered. A sound decision-making apparatus such as the National Security Council at the apex would have deliberated upon it for considerable period. In any case, the final nod would have had to come from the President who is also the supreme commander of US Armed Forces. d) Planning. Preparation of detailed plans for various possibilities and contingencies. e) Allotment of ‘troops-to-task’. Selection of the force that is best equipped to execute the mission assigned. f) Training and Rehearsals. Perhaps the most important aspect of the operation. Considering that troops were drawn from different armed services, it would have meant joint training of the combined forces. Each component of the selected raiding force would have been hand-picked for specific tasks but would also have been capable of switching to other tasks in case nominated personnel had become casualties. g) Contingency Planning. It is often said that the first

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casualty in a military operation is the plan! It is vital, therefore, that detailed questioning of the plan in a typically ‘what if’ manner would have been done to draw up contingency plans. Such plans would make it possible to carry out mid-course corrections and minimise surprises once execution of the plan had commenced. h) Logistics. Near fail-proof logistics would have been the cornerstone of the plan, including back up plans for contingencies.

An introspection Let us now turn attention on ourselves. Our armed forces have demonstrated their capabilities in various conventional and sub-conventional operations in recent times both within the country and beyond our borders (such as those in UN Peacekeeping and anti-piracy operations). Their tactical skills are well-honed by their near continuous deployment in counter-terrorist operations. They hold military exercises regularly with some of the leading military powers that involve handling modern weapons and technologies and their performance has been rated highly. Measuring up demonstrated accomplishments of our armed forces as indicator of their capabilities against the processes in the planning and execution of the US raid, it can be stated with reasonable assurance that we have the basic wherewithal to undertake similar operations. Some of our capabilities, particularly in cutting edge technologies may not match those of the US and we lack the highly sophisticated hardware that US Forces are equipped with. It only means that we would have to accept higher degree of difficulties and perhaps even higher costs in casualties. Where technology cannot help us, we will simply have to find alternative methods. Those are issues that could influence decisionmaking but would not in any way take away from the operational potential of our forces.

Prerequisites So is that the simple conclusion that we have the capability? A closer, more critical introspection would throw up more important issues that merit attention before we could be sanguine that we have

what it takes to do a Geronimo. In order that we convert the potential capabilities of our armed forces into viable options that the nation’s leadership may have to exercise in pursuance of national interest, we need to focus on a few aspects.

A clear mandate The starting block for development of capabilities is a mandate that clearly enunciates its aim and scope. We have many instances in India where an unambiguous mandate has resulted in the desired capabilities. Our nuclear weapons programme, impressive developments in the field of rockets and guided missiles and the Chandrayan programme of space exploration are sterling examples of our capabilities as a nation. In all cases our achievements were the result of singleminded resolute action. In the process we produced world class technologies indigenously. On the other hand, where the mandate has been weak or withdrawn altogether we have lost capabilities that were built up over years; such as those for clandestine operations that some of our external operations agencies once had. National leadership has to display a sense of statesmanship and vision in giving out a firm mandate to develop capabilities for carrying out tasks that are critical to national security as well as the safety and well being of our people.

Organisational structure The desired capabilities need a strong organisational framework to acquire them in the first instance and then to keep them in operational readiness at all times. Our apex decision-making apparatus at the national level may need either some changes in its structure or charter to deal with external interventions like the Abbottabad episode. The apex body must ensure that all necessary resources are placed at the disposal of the command structure of the mandated force. The operational framework should comprise a command structure for decision-making, a support system and requisite force level comprising men and material for execution of tasks. The command and control structure should be responsible for planning and execution of the missions that may be

The Most Established

Security and Fire Exhibition in South-east Asia

assigned from time to time. Its support system should include not only logistics but also information support systems which should have two components; an integral one and an external one. The integral component is necessary in the interest of maintaining confidentiality of its information data base whereas the external one should be in constant touch with other information gathering organisations. A close interaction with all intelligence agencies that operate at the national level is also an essential part of the support mechanism.

Held in Concurrent with

Right manpower Force structure is probably the easiest part because the armed forces in general and the army in particular already have the right manpower and infrastructure in its special forces units. In addition there are other organisations whose resources could also be pooled in. Since the force would be required to maintain very high skill levels and the highest state of readiness, norms for selection of personnel should be extremely stringent. It is interesting to note that the rate of rejection for US Navy SEALs is in the region of eighty per cent! Personnel should have short tenures so as to maintain the highest standard of physical fitness and mental robustness needed for high risk missions. They must also be conditioned to work and operate in complete confidentiality and maintain anonymity. Information should be disseminated on strictly need-to-know basis and any leakage of information should be severely dealt with. The good news is most of what is desirable in terms of personnel and infrastructure already exists with us in one form or the other. All that is needed is the right will and its resolute execution. This is now a challenge for the nation’s leaders; the people expect that they would be found equal to it. The writer was the Quartermaster General of the Indian Army before he retired. He is Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. During the Kargil war, he was commanding 28 Infantry Division on the Line of Control in J&K. For the role played by him in that war, he was awarded Uttam Yudh Seva Medal. Later he was the Corps Commander of the prestigious 15 Corps engaged in management of the Line of Control and counter terrorist operations in the Kashmir Valley.

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June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

Brig. (Retd.) Chitranjan Sawant

America had said in the context of Saddam Hussain and Iraq that you can run but you cannot hide. And sure enough they finally found him in a hole in the ground. It is rumoured that enough money had been paid to an informer to sell Saddam down the Euphrates. In Pakistan’s case the money was given up front in the form of dangerous toys for the Pakistan Army and a little something for the political leadership to fall in line and bow deeply once the Americans had zeroed in on Osama bin Laden in his Waziristan Haveli in the heart of the most prestigious military cantonment in Pakistan. They shut their eyes and pretended to sleep as three helicopters hovered overhead and one fell to the ground with a bang that shook windows miles away!

he US Special Forces were mandated to capture or kill Osama bin-Laden, the most ferocious terrorist who had the blood of thousands of innocent men, women and children on his hands. Recalling Lady Macbeth who had committed murder most foul of her country’s king and would walk at night wrenching her hands and uttering Shakespearean words, “all the perfumes of Arabia would not sweeten these hands” and made an exit from the stage of the world. Osama bin Laden was born in Riyadh, capital of the Saudi Arabia in 1957 of a rich much-married father and an ignored mother, later widowed and remarried. Osama never found parental love or homely peace and drifted towards terror from his civil engineering class to establish an empire of Islam. Of course, it was in the world of Islamist terror that he won name and fame by organising Mujahideen suicidal fighters against the Soviet army in Afghanistan. Himself an Arab, he befriended Afghans, Pathans, Tadjiks, Uzbeks, Chechens and what have you, to knit them into a monolithic military-like organisation to fight against the Soviet army and drive them out of Afghanistan beyond the Amu Darya into Central Asia. His success impressed friend and foe alike and he gained recognition as a centre of power.

Kill for killings sake However, he brought both himself and his religion into disrepute by killing and maiming innocent persons who were nowhere near the establishment. His dream of running the show in an Islamic empire never materialised. Instead he met a violent end in his hired house in Abbottabad in Pakistan on 1st / 2nd May 2011 in the wee hours of the morning.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

American

vengeance! What an irony that the dead body of one of the most committed fighters for the cause of Islam was denied a place of burial in the lap of mother earth as per Islamic rites. Of course, his American captors claimed that Osama was given a final resting place, as per Islamic rites, deep in the sea to avoid his grave becoming a place of pilgrimage for the jihadis. Osama, an armed fighter all his life for the cause of Islam, was absolutely unarmed, bare handed and hiding behind his 27-year old fourth wife when challenged by the SEALS or commandos of the US Navy. The US Navy commandos pumped two bullets into Osama’s body and the charismatic personality that evaded arrest and kept his hunters at bay for a decade, breathed his last. His body was unceremoniously bundled into an American helicopter and flown to Afghanistan before his hosts, the Pakistan government, could know what was happening on the third floor of the farmhouse known as the Waziristan Haveli, just a stone’s throw away from the Pakistan Military Academy, Kakul, in picturesque Abbottabad.

American determination The free world is appreciative of the determination with which the American government and their Special Forces hunted the Most Wanted Man and finally got him. It took them a decade to zero in on the target but they were at it with single-minded devotion to duty. One may recall that it was the bin Laden sinister plan that caused the 9/11 mayhem and mass murder of the American citizens in 2001 at the World Trade Center, New York. Thereafter it was the duty of every American citizen to help hound the planners and executors of that act of Islamist terror. It took them a decade to achieve the aim and fulfil the mission of capturing

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endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA should have been with the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi in no time. Now the American authorities say that they informed President Zardari and the Pakistan Army higher echelon after the top secret operation was over and the US personnel were back in Afghanistan. If that is true, it raises serious doubts over the efficacy of the alert and warning system of the Pakistan government and the army.

The non-official sources give a more cogent explanation of the American operations remaining unreported to Rawalpindi. Before launching the heliborne operations, Americans had jammed the communication system of entire Pakistan … Further, it is unimaginable that American military would just despatch two or three helicopters to Abbottabad from Jallalabad, Afghanistan, and not provide them aerial protection. To save their own choppers and personnel, US Air Force fighter jets were constantly flying in Pakistan airspace and provided aerial cover to their operation throughout. Of course, information of this nature is not published in advance but just passed on to all concerned by word of mouth or killing bin Laden but they did it with single-minded attention like Arjuna shooting his arrow to pierce an eye of the target, a clay pigeon. Americans too achieved Arjuna-like success.

Pakistani subterfuge The American administration planned and executed its plan to capture or kill bin Laden singlehandedly. The United States calls Pakistan a frontline state fighting against terror but did not consider it reliable enough to be taken into confidence for sharing intelligence of this nature. Had America shared the finer points and final details of the tracking and capture or kill plan with Pakistan, they were sure to lose the Most Wanted Man in that over populated jungle of human beings. The top generals and middle-rung officers of Pakistan have ceased to be truthful and reliable in dealing with the Islamist terrorists. The classic example is that of Osama bin-Laden. When the US intelligence agencies asked ISI of Pakistan and their other agencies for help in apprehending Osama, they were told that no one knew where the top terrorist was. Sometimes he is here and sometimes there. The place could be Tora-Bora caves, any hilly shelter in no man’s land on the Afghan-Pakistan border or even a foreign country not friendly with the United States like Iran or North Korea. The untruthful Pakistanis were just leading Americans astray, not realising that the CIA and other US outfits had many sources to get clues from. The US top brass was convinced that the special operations to capture or kill Osama would have to be carried out by them alone without

taking Pakistan officials on board. The Americans were quite convinced of the Islamist susceptibilities of Pakistan rank and file. They had called General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani names and told him, with the rest of the world within hearing distance, that the Pakistan Army Chief was a liar. The US intelligence agencies were cut up that in other cases of intelligence susceptibilities, Pakistan just extracted a large sum of money from America without rendering any help of substantial nature. Thus in the eyes of America, Pakistan’s reliability as a friend or strategic ally became suspect. Thus Pakistan lost both money and prestige on the world forum.

Pakistan army credibility It was in 2007 that the CIA got definite information that the top terrorist of the world was comfortably lodged in a big three-storey house enclosed by an eighteen foot high wall in the central part of Pakistan. He was living with two of his four wives and a few children. The American intelligence agencies successfully tracked two couriers from and to that residence and that too was a convincing factor of a VIP living in that secluded house on the outskirts of a major Pakistani cantonment. We will take up the point elsewhere whether the civil administration and the army brass knew who lived there and what for. The circumstancial evidence is quite convincing that the higher echelons of the military and the government were in the picture about the identity of the resident of the Waziristan Haveli. Osama bin Laden could not have sustained himself and his family without the support of Pakistan Army and the government.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

By the way, General Kayani was the Reviewing Officer of the Passing-Out Parade held in the Military Academy just a week before the top terrorist was killed by the US Navy SEALS in the same city where the Academy is located. No one will believe General Kayani if he says that he had no knowledge of bin Laden living in Abbottabad for five years. The Truth is sometimes stranger than fiction. When the Americans were in hot pursuit of bin Laden in and around Pakistan, a training unit of the US Special Forces was stationed in Abbottabad, not far from Osama's three-storey mansion. The US Special Forces were sent there to train some Pakistan army units in counterterrorism. The American personnel moved up and down on main roads but did not have an inkling into the presence of top terrorist there. The Americans moved out to Mardan after sometime. Was it by design or was just a coincidence, it is hard to tell.

Sovereignty pawned Back in Washington DC, President Barack Obama had signed the death warrant of Osama bin Laden. The fugitive from law who had killed thousands of Americans in one stroke on 9/11 had to be captured dead or alive. The CIA was tasked to do it and they were authorised to go about it professionally without any fear of violating any international law or sovereignty of the host nation, that is Pakistan. In any case America had bought the sovereignty of Pakistan by paying it enough money, much more than it could count. The raising of violation of sovereignty question by former President General

Communications jammed?

Pervez Musharraf was just an exercise in futility. After all the American drone attacks on top terrorists in North and South Waziristan or in FATA was technically a violation of Pakistan’s air space and sovereignty but America had already asked it to shut up by giving it all the money that it needed to keep its economy afloat. Those who spoke out of turn were told to shut up. They did not murmur, whine or whimper thereafter. Money makes the mare go, so goes an old English saying. Indeed Pakistan is no exception to it.

The curtain falls On D-Day three Naval helicopters attacked the exclusive house in Abbottabad cantonment. There was a firefight for about 40 minutes in which many rounds were fired from Osama’s side too. Later version of the final episode said that there was no firing from Osama’s side and that explains lack of casualty among the US Navy personnel. Osama was hiding in the bedroom where he was hunted down and ordered to surrender. On his refusal he was shot in the head and the stomach and killed on the spot. A woman companion of his who acted as a human shield was also killed. Two of his wives and a few children were taken into custody. The dead body and rest of the party were flown to Afghanistan for suitable disposal. However, the locale of this final scene is now stated to be a room on the third floor of the mansion. The Navy SEALS had cameras fitted on their helmets and a blow by blow account was transmitted to the

Situation Room of Washington DC and was watched live by the President, the Vice-President, Secretary of State and so on. The running commentary was done by the Director of CIA from his office. When Osama was killed, the code word of success was uttered ”Geronimo EKIA” and the President said “We got him”. Geronimo was the Red Indian Chief who evaded arrest for many years and here it meant bin Laden. EKIA meant – enemy killed in action.

Effaced As stated earlier the dead body of bin Laden was given a sea burial as per Islamic rites after the mandatory bath. It was a wise step as land burial would have attracted many jihadis and Osama sympathisers to the grave and the grave might have become a focal point of revival of Islamist terrorism. The point has been reiterated here to avoid any form of confusion later. Any sort of grave worship is forbidden in all major religions of the world including Vedic and Islam. However, some promote it as a form of money swindling device. The 40-minute firefight, the sound and light of high velocity fire arms and the smoke generated by burning objects should have attracted the attention of the army authorities in Abbottabad cantonment. One wonders why was there no reaction from the Pakistan Military Academy, Kakul situated nearby or some regimental centres located there. With improved means of communication, a situation report

The non-official sources give a more cogent explanation of the American operations remaining unreported to Rawalpindi. Before launching the heliborne operations, Americans had jammed the communication system of entire Pakistan and those fellows could not compare notes with each other on Operation Osama launched by the United States. Further, it is unimaginable that American military would just despatch two or three helicopters to Abbottabad from Jalalabad, Afghanistan and not provide them aerial protection. To save their own choppers and personnel, US Air Force fighter jets were constantly flying in Pakistan airspace and provided aerial cover to their operation throughout. Of course, information of this nature is not published in advance but just passed on to all concerned by word of mouth. The Pakistan authorities knew in the heart of their hearts that if they did not behave but interfered with the American plan to seize Osama bin Laden dead or alive, Pakistan would be bombed back into the Stone Age. The US operation went with clockwork precision. President Barack Obama made the news of the great kill public with aplomb. The civilised men and women danced with joy over this victory over the barbarians. Let us quote Shakespeare again and say “All is well that ends well!” The writer is a well-known commentator on television and radio and has been giving running commentaries on Akashvani, Doordarshan and other channels on the Republic Day Parade and other national events for 38 years in Hindi. He has travelled widely and written on events in the conflict zones around the world.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

The Global War On Terror as it stands today is less than half finished with the dramatic death of the father of all terrorists Osama bin Laden. Laden is dead but his ideology remains in the spores that he dispersed around the world. However, if the US persists with Pakistan which is both the cradle and the fountainhead of Islamic fundamentalist jihad, the second most populous Muslim nation in the world, that is, India and the gateway to the Central Asian Republics - the Pakistan Afghanistan corridor can and must be sanitised before a significant rollback becomes possible.

he killing of Osama bin Laden in a firefight with US Navy SEALs in Abbottabad, Pakistan on May 01/02, 2011 ended a 10-year manhunt for the world’s most wanted terrorist. This is a defining moment in the American-led war on terrorism since Osama bin Laden founded the Al Qaeda, a global militant Islamist group sometime between August 1988 and late 1989. Throughout the 1990s, the jihadi movement continued to take root in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Europe. In addition to the attacks of September 11, 2001, Al Qaeda has been linked to a number of other well-known terrorist attacks: The Khobar Tower bombing in Saudi Arabia in June 1996; the embassy bombings in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania in August 1998; the bombing of the USS Cole off the coast of Yemen in October 2000; the bombings in Madrid, Spain, in March 2004 and London, England in July 2005. Al Qaeda affiliated groups have also been linked to terrorist attacks in Indonesia, Chechnya, Kashmir, Algeria, Morocco, Russia, Somalia and the Philippines. Currently, it is estimated that Al Qaeda has a presence in over 60 countries. However, what will remain interesting to note is whether the death of a potent symbolic figure galvanises Al Qaeda by turning him into a martyr, or whether it serves as the beginning of the end in

the war on terrorism.

Unique characteristics Al Qaeda and its affiliates share an absolutist ideology and believe they are waging a total war, in which the end justifies the means. It does not feel constrained by any moral or humanitarian limits to the lethality of its attacks and does not distinguish between combatants and non-combatants or between civilians and military. To the contrary, bin Laden has explicitly urged all Muslims to attack Americans and their allies, including civilians, whenever and wherever the opportunity arises. Crucially, Al Qaeda has today evolved into a significantly different terrorist organisation than the one that perpetrated the September 11, 2001, attacks. Before the 9/11 attacks, it was composed mostly of a core cadre of veterans of the Afghan insurgency against the Soviet Union with a centralised leadership structure made up mostly of Egyptians. Most of the organisation’s plots were either conceived from the top or were approved by the leadership. In the ensuing years, out of necessity and due to pressures from the security community, it has transformed into a diffused global network and philosophical movement composed of

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

Dr. Venkat Lokanathan

dispersed nodes with varying degrees of independence.

Autonomous cells This disconnect between its nodes allows individual cells to function autonomously and with little oversight. This has served the organisation well in several ways. First, the affiliate groups operate with their own specific sets of priorities. They are not bound to one group or one man and are completely self-reliant. While the strategic goals promulgated through Al Qaeda’s ideology are generally the same, the immediate tactical goals of individual affiliate groups often differ. Second, the decentralisation and the global spread of the movement has been its recipe for success. Removal of a single cell or a symbolic head like bin Laden will not necessarily destroy the organisation. Third, the diffusion of Al Qaeda as an ideology in itself has become its best recruitment tool. Since the movement is now global, the pool of potential recruits has grown exponentially. Based on the diffuse nature of Al Qaeda and its ideology, recruitment will follow these patterns. Since Al Qaeda is transnational, recruitment will derive from various ethnicities, nationalities and cultural backgrounds. Crucially, the jihadi groups that Al Qaeda is affiliated with are all united to some degree based

Al Qaeda'’s global network on the shared ideology of jihad and political Islam.

Afghanistan Presently, Al Qaeda is more facilitators of militant incursions into

Afghanistan than active fighters in the insurgency. Small numbers of Al Qaeda including Arabs, Uzbeks and Chechens have been captured or killed in battles in Afghanistan over the past few years. Some of these fighters apparently belong to Al Qaeda affiliates such as

the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). In the most direct US Administration statement on the strength of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan itself, Director of Central Intelligence Agency,

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

If the War On Terror needs to be won comprehensively, the strategy should be to focus on destabilising this ideology rather than purely waging a battle of force. Instead, killing Osama bin Laden in an encounter and not releasing the operational details including photographic evidence due to its gruesome nature and to avoid it being used by extremists as propaganda to incite more violence will only have the opposite effect. Unfortunately it will only fuel further speculation with some even questioning bin Laden’s death. Additionally, the American decision will cost them an opportunity to send a psychological message to terror organisations globally that terrorism does not pay Leon Panetta observed on June 27, 2010, that Al Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan itself might number 50-100 now moving back into remote areas of Kunar and Nuristan provinces. A major challenge for the US has been its strategy to rely mainly on Afghan forces in this engagement, as it is often speculated that Afghan factions may have accepted funds or tribal and clan overtures to permit the escape of the Al Qaeda leaders. The American concern over Al Qaeda presence has been comprehensively expressed in the December 2010 Administration review on Afghanistan which clearly states that the US mission in Afghanistan, is still to deny Al Qaeda safe haven and to deny the Taliban the ability to overthrow the government.

Pakistan The United States remains concerned that senior Al Qaeda terrorists operate on Pakistani territory perhaps with some level of impunity as was indicated in bin Laden’s presence for well over six years. The group appears to have increased its influence among the myriad Islamist militant groups operating along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and the densely populated Punjab province. The Tehrik-eTaliban Pakistan (TTP or “Pakistani Taliban”) is an umbrella organisation of Islamist militant groups in western Pakistan that has more closely allied itself with Al Qaeda in recent years. Despite Al Qaeda enduring some disruptions in its operations in Pakistan, the organisation has been resurgent appearing to have benefited from a Pakistani policy of appeasement in western tribal areas (particularly North Waziristan) near the Afghan border. At the same time, the Pakistan Army

appears hesitant to expand its ground offensive operations into these areas thus allowing Al Qaeda to continue using the rugged region as a base of operations.

The Arabian peninsula Yemen is an attractive base of operations for Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a banner of Al Qaeda-affiliated militants based in Yemen and Saudi militants. Unlike Saudi Arabia, its poor population is more disperse, rural and geographically isolated. AQAP has re-emerged in recent years alongside Al Qaeda figures who escaped from Yemeni custody and former Saudi detainees from Guantanamo Bay, Cuba and the Saudi terrorism rehabilitation programme. The Yemen government is unable to exercise direct control in several of its own governorates without first seeking tribal support. A key concern is President Ali Abdullah Saleh who has a long history of allying himself with Sunni Islamist militants against Communist or Shiite domestic opponents. These ties have led in the past to his government’s somewhat complacent attitude toward Al Qaeda sympathisers. As Yemen’s oil production drops precipitously, its population rises and its government coffers dwindle, the country only becomes riper for instability and extremist activity.

North Africa / Sahel Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM, also known as Al Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb or AQLIM) and its offshoots or autonomous cells pose the main terrorist threat in North Africa and the Sahel. The vast area of Algeria’s six

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

Saharan provinces and of its sparsely populated Sahelian neighbours affords AQIM optimal terrain in which to move, conduct training and advance its regional ambitions. Since uniting with Al Qaeda in 2006, AQIM’s rhetoric against the West has increased. The US State Department is concerned that AQIM has become increasingly active in the West African Sahel reportedly maintaining mobile training camps along the Algeria-Mali border and carrying out smuggling operations in countries across the Sahel, taking advantage of porous international borders. Interestingly, AQIM’s presence in the Sahel is further divided between two main groups, one led by Yahia Djouadi and a second by Mokhtar Belmokhtar (MBM). The group’s members are primarily Algerian, but include individuals from Mauritania, Niger, Mali as well as Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria and Benin.

East Africa The East Africa region has emerged over the past two decades as a region highly vulnerable to terrorist attacks and is considered a safe haven for international terrorist groups. Political, ethnic and religious conflicts in the region have helped create an environment conducive to the growth of and recruitment capabilities of terrorist groups. The inability of African security services to detect and intercept terrorist activities due to lack of technology and sufficiently trained and motivated manpower are major impediments to addressing the terrorist threats. It was the takeover of power in Sudan by the National Islamic Front (NIF) in 1989 that led to a significant increase in the activities of international terror groups. The NIF government provides safe

haven for well-known international terrorist organisations and individuals and the government’s security services are directly engaged in facilitating and assisting domestic and international terror groups. The penetration by Al Qaeda into East Africa is directly tied to NIF’s early years of support to international terrorist organisations.

Somalia The absence of central authority in Somalia again creates an environment conducive to the proliferation of armed factions throughout the country. Somali factions, including the so-called Islamist groups, often go through realignments or simply disappear from the scene. On February 1, 2010, Al Shabaab, the high profile terror organisation and the Ras Kamboni group, led by Hassan Al Turki, reportedly agreed to merge as Al Shabaab Mujahidin Movement. Both Al Shabaab and the Ras Kamboni group have been coordinating their attacks and working closely with Al Qaeda leaders in East Africa and foreign fighters over the past three years. Another growing concern has been reports from the United States that over a dozen Somali youth from Minneapolis and other parts of the United States have left the country to join the insurgency. There is no clear evidence of how many and for what purpose these Somalis left Minneapolis, but there are concerns that some of these individuals could be recruited by Al Qaeda to perform attacks in Somalia or the United States. The concerns appear based in part on the fact that one of the suicide bombers in the October 2008 attacks in Puntland and Somaliland was a Somali-American from Minneapolis. Again, on August 5, 2010, more than a dozen Somali-Americans / permanent residents in California, Alabama and Minnesota were indicted for providing support to Al Shabaab. However broader concerns exist about the participation of US citizens in Al Shabaab activities and potential US-based financing for terrorist groups in Somalia.

South East Asia While for most of the 2000s, Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) was the key terrorist organisation in Indonesia, this now appears to be shifting. According

to Sidney Jones of the International Crisis Group, it now appears that militant Islamists can be identified with one of three groups: JI, the remaining members of the network of Noordin Top, a militant killed in 2009 and a new alliance of various jihadists that had set up a training camp in Aceh. JI is evidently now focused on rebuilding its organisation, after having been effectively pursued by the Indonesian government, working towards establishing an Islamist state in Indonesia and possibly the region, as opposed to the Noordin Top network that is more focused on attacking Western targets in Indonesia. The New alliance of various jihadists is a composite of people from a number of different militant groups like Jemaah Islamiyah, Kompak and Darul Islam, who are frustrated with what they see as a lack of action within these groups. They’re more radical and apparently see themselves as Indonesia’s Al Qaeda.

Essence of Al Qaeda Al Qaeda has always been an ideology and never about one man or group. It has a long term commitment to ending non-Muslim “interference” in the affairs of Muslims. It advocates a phased struggle, in which the initial goal is the expulsion of US and foreign military forces from “Islamic lands” including the overthrow of “corrupt” regional leaders and the creation of governments that rule solely according to Sharia (Islamic law). In pursuit of their many goals, Al Qaeda leaders frequently make appeals for support based on a wide range of political positions and, at times, attempt to harness nationalist sentiment or manipulate local grievances to

generate support for their agendas. They believe that characterising their actions as religiously sanctioned and as defensive reactions to external threats will increase tolerance and support for their broader ideological programme. References to the reestablishment of an Islamic caliphate frequently appear in their propaganda but often lack detail and are rarely accompanied by practical political prescriptions for achieving such a goal. All this needs to be highlighted to its sympathisers. If the War On Terror needs to be won comprehensively, the strategy should be to focus on destabilising this ideology rather than purely waging a battle of force. Instead, killing Osama bin Laden in an encounter and not releasing the operational details including photographic evidence due to its gruesome nature and to avoid it being used by extremists as propaganda to incite more violence will only have the opposite effect. Unfortunately it will only fuel further speculation with some even questioning bin Laden’s death. Additionally, the American decision will cost them an opportunity to send a psychological message to terror organisations globally that terrorism does not pay. Instead, by closing down its embassy in Pakistan soon after, the United States has openly admitted to its own apprehensions which in turn could only motivate the terrorists to launch further attacks. The writer is currently Senior Lecturer in the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations at Manipal University, Manipal, India. He has also worked as a Research Officer at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. His areas of interest include broader contours of International Security Affairs with specific focus on the United States, China and South Asia.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

The spectacular strike in the US on 9/11 gave to the Al Qaeda and its many affiliates the aura of a mighty, irresistible force. The loss of its leader Osama bin Laden in an equally spectacular riposte by the US cannot be expected to cut the roots and thus make the organisation wither away. But putting pressure on the cradle of Islamist terrorism, Pakistan, will. Now that it is clear to the US that Pakistan is harbouring the terrorists it needs to bring both political and military pressure on an establishment that was made to sip the poison of Wahabi Islamism and became addicted to its taste and consequence. Till the US and its allies resort to half-measures India will have to remain on guard. 74

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

Brig. (Retd.) Rahul Bhonsle

Al Qaeda in India:

past, present and future

he killing of Osama bin Laden on 2 May in Abbottabad, Pakistan once again directed global attention to the presence of Al Qaeda in South Asia. While the terrorist group was well entrenched in Afghanistan prior to 9/11 and had shifted base to tribal areas of Pakistan thereafter its main activities were in other regions of the world such as Iraq and the Maghreb. However discovery of the world’s most wanted man, Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, which was not surprising to many has again led to speculation of possibility of Al Qaeda’s presence in India.

its heyday in the 1990’s had attempted to make inroads in Jammu and Kashmir and extensively supported the ‘franchises’, Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad amongst others also indicates a strong interest of the group in India. While one argument is that elimination of Osama may effectively reduce potency of the organisation, today’s Al Qaeda is much more than bin Laden howsoever monstrous he may have been. The group is now a violent extremist movement rather than a terrorist organisation, thus its ability to conduct mayhem is far greater than hithertofore with possibility of using WMDs, particularly biological, chemical and radiological weapons to cause heavy casualties. Moreover past study of terrorism reveals that decapacitating a leader, even as dangerous as Osama seldom leads to the end of a terrorist group. A review of Al Qaeda’s past, present and future in India is therefore necessary.

Potency remains

Al Qaeda – the movement

In some ways India could be considered an ideal ground for the Al Qaeda with origins of Deobandi and Salafi wings of Islam in North India in the early 20th century. Given that the Al Qaeda in

Like other terrorist groups, the beginnings of Al Qaeda were innocuous. The timing for spread of the ideology was fortuitous with a clash of different ways of life, rather than civilisations as Huntington has alluded to happening across the world. The year 1979 bore forebodings of resentment in West Asia with Khomeini successfully upstaging the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran.

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endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA February 2009. “India should know that it will have to pay a heavy price if it attacks Pakistan,” Mustafa Abu Yazid said, “The Mujahideen will sunder your armies into the ground, like they did to the Russians in Afghanistan.”

While bin Laden is dead, it will be some time before the Al Qaeda will be truly defeated. Of the many ways in which terrorism ends, the death of a leader is possibly one of the weakest vectors for change. Thus the Al Qaeda will continue to haunt security planners and counter-terror forces across the world including India. Al Qaeda’s singular failure in making an impact in the largest democracy with the second largest Muslim population in the world remains a mystery to many. The group never appreciated the pluralist and secular ethos which has rejected the likes of bin Laden over the centuries In reconfiguration of global forces that followed Soviet invasion of Afghanistan the same year, three intelligence agencies, the American, Saudi and Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) created the hydra-headed monster of the Mujahideen of which Osama and Al Qaeda soon assumed moral leadership providing ideological fire, strategic expertise and financial muscle.

came to power in Afghanistan with the help of the ISI, in 1996, Osama shifted there from Sudan. Al Qaeda cells spawned across the globe in Europe, United States, North Africa, West Asia, South East Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and also in Jammu and Kashmir. Today it has a global footprint not as much as a terrorist group but as an umbrella movement to instigate youth to take to terror.

As the Afghan campaign progressed so did the Al Qaeda. Osama bin Laden began to attract other smaller groups, prominent amongst whom was Al Jihad led by Egyptian doctor Ayman al-Zawahiri. The fiery leadership provided by bin Laden, his effective strategic communication capability, strong financial backup led Al Qaeda to assume omnipresence in the nether world of terror across the globe. The networked organisation provided Al Qaeda survivability with a large number of flourishing subsidiaries. These, ‘franchises’ depended on the mother organisation for ideology, strategic guidance, training and financial support. Some of these groups pre fixed Al Qaeda with their name as Al Qaeda in Iraq while others continued with their original identity as Jaish-e-Mohammad. Osama provided an organisational linkage by forming the International Islamic Front (IIF) in the 1990’s.

Al Qaeda’s main strength is the ability to think and operate strategically. The main technique used is mass casualty high visibility terror attacks. After 9/11 it has also been seeking dirty bombs. A report in the Los Angeles Times by Greg Miller highlighted contact with Sultan Bashirrudin Mahmood and Chaudhry Abdul Majeed two Pakistani nuclear experts who had met Osama bin Laden in 2001. The group also has the ability to spread ideology by using modern media, internet, social networking tools and blogs. This has enabled the group to develop what India’s former National Security Advisor (NSA) Mr. M. K. Narayanan has called the Al Qaeda “mindset”.

With pullout of Soviet troops from Afghanistan in 1989, the raison d’etre for the Mujahideen seemed to be over, but monstrous proportion assumed by groups as the Al Qaeda led to their expanding territorial span and targets. Shocked by presence of the United States in Saudi Arabia to evict Saddam Hussain from Kuwait in 1991, America became bin Laden’s principal enemy. When the Taliban

The structure of the Al Qaeda is such that it does not depend on a single leader be it as significant as bin Laden. Thus the group may represent a modern corporate controlling a network of groups. The Shura Majlis or consultative council headed by Osama bin Laden in the past and comprising of Ayman al-Zawahiri lays down general directions and major targets. While initially the Shura was mainly Arab, since its rebirth in 2004 it has members from other countries including Pakistan. The Shura operates through functional sub-committees such as military, fatwa, finance, media and Islamic studies. The operations are carried out by Al Qaeda’s country cells or by groups supported

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by it. While the organisation was disrupted after 9/11 it has been able to rejuvenate after 2004 and was seen to be most active from 2007 to 2009 in Iraq and other parts of the world.

Al Qaeda’s India chapter For Osama bin Laden’s aim of establishment of a global Caliphate, India was a natural extension with its large Muslim population. The Al Qaeda saw communal riots in Mumbai in 1993 and Gujarat in 2002 fault-lines that could be employed to advantage by drumming up propaganda of exploitation of minorities. Jammu and Kashmir was another point of inflection. India’s growing proximity to the United States and defence linkages with Israel made the country a priority for expansion of the network. Al Qaeda could attract a number of groups who were operating in Jammu and Kashmir in the 1990’s including, the Harkat ul Mujahidin (HUM), Harkat ul Jehadi Islami (HuJI), Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) along with its political wing Jamaat ud Dawa. The Al Qaeda developed linkages with criminal groups like Dawood Ibrahim, mastermind of the Mumbai bomb blast of 1993. Some of the groups as the HUM, HuJI, LeT and JeM were a part of the IIF. Al Qaeda influenced Kashmiri militancy by providing these groups training in camps, money, arms and ammunition Osama also inducted the famed 055 Brigade to fight in Kashmir in June 1999. This force had approximately 200 experienced terrorists with exposure in Afghanistan. The move came even as Pakistan suffered a setback during Operation Vijay in Kargil. The 055 Brigade was seen as a boost to the morale of the insurgents

fighting a losing battle in Jammu and Kashmir. A notable exception in the Kashmir Valley was the largest group, Hizbul Mujahideen comprising of locals who spurned Osama’s outreach in no uncertain terms.

Threats The Al Qaeda was however interested in India from the very beginning. Osama referred to Kashmir and Assam in his fatwa of August 1996 quoted in Al Quds Al Arabi, a London-based newspaper thus, “It should not be hidden from you that the people of Islam had suffered from aggression, iniquity and injustice imposed on them by the Zionist-Crusaders alliance and their collaborators; to the extent that the Muslims' blood became the cheapest and their wealth as loot in the hands of the enemies. Their blood was spilled in Palestine and Iraq. The horrifying pictures of the massacre of Qana in Lebanon are still fresh in our memory. Massacres in Tajikistan, Burma, Cashmere, Assam, Philippines, Fatani, Ogaden, Somalia, Eritrea, Chechnya and in Bosnia-Herzegovina took place, massacres that send shivers in the body and shake the conscience”. There are also numerous references to India in Al Qaeda messages, interrogation reports and internet references and also involvement in the Parliament attack in December 2001 Al Qaeda operatives as Abu Zubaidah reportedly No. 3 in the Al Qaeda hierarchy in 2002 had taken computer training in Pune before joining the organisation. Yemen based Al Qaeda operatives had carried out dummy runs for a terrorist attack in Mumbai. Osama’s speeches on CDs with English sub-titles have been recovered from Patna and Bhojpur in Bihar.

The Al Qaeda’s brand name also started having impact with mysterious persons and groups claiming to belong to the organisation associating themselves with terrorist attacks such as the serial train blasts in local trains in Mumbai on 11 July 2006, which had caused 187 fatalities. An unknown person calling himself Abu al-Hadeed, claimed to be from the Al Qaeda and congratulated the group which had carried out the blast. Another odd group led by one Abu Abdul Rehman claiming to be the chief of Al Qaeda Fil Hind or Al Qaeda in India surfaced on Friday, 8 June 2007 with a tape to the Current News Service in Srinagar with the message, “We declare righteous holy war against India on behalf of God the great in which Jammu and Kashmir will be the launch pad for holy war in India".

Reconnaissance in India The Al Qaeda also attempted two interventions as per media reports referring to Mr. S. D. Pradhan former chairman of the joint intelligence committee. The first was a reconnaissance between February and April 2007 by a 10-member team of Bangalore, Mumbai and Goa which was later caught in Algeria. In 2008 Saudi Arabian students of the Islamic Students Congregation in Pune were given a sermon on Osama’s preaching by a Sudanese national who is suspected to be an Al Qaeda agent. Even as India weathered the complex Mumbai terror attack on 26 November 2008, there was extensive national debate over response towards Pakistan after terrorists were identified from that country. Al Qaeda’s military commander in Afghanistan, Mustafa Abu Yazid released a tape warning against an offensive in

The next warning came exactly a year later. The Indian counter-terrorism establishment led by Home Minister Mr. P. Chidambaram had succeeded in staving off a major terrorist attack in the country till February 2010, when in Pune a bomb attack in the German Bakery frequented by foreigners killed 17 persons. Immediately following the attack a message reportedly by Ilyas Kashmiri the Al Qaeda supposed commander for the region warned, in a message, “We warn the international community not to send their people to the 2010 Hockey World Cup, the Indian Premier League and Commonwealth Games – to be held in New Delhi later this year. Nor should their people visit India – if they do, they will be responsible for the consequences.” The Indian establishment duly warned conducted these events successfully indicating to the group that the space for terrorist violence had been considerably constricted. The mention of Pune in the conference held on the so called Kashmir Solidarity Day on 4 February by terrorist groups in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir which reportedly included Al Qaeda operatives as well raises the needle of suspicion of linkages of the organisation with the Pune blasts. Recent reports in WikiLeaks indicate that the Al Qaeda had planned to bomb an Indian airline in 2001-2002. The report quoted by Indian daily, Indian Express read, “Abdul Azia, an Algerian member of the Lashkar-e-Toiba and an Al Qaeda courier picked up by the US in 2002 who said that his mission was to ‘kill Indians in India’, has been recorded as saying that the ISI ‘allowed’ fighters to fight inside India. Another media report indicated that Al Qaeda had attempted to procure altimeter watches as triggers for targeting an Indian airliner. The Peruvian Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) has also recently highlighted that the Al Qaeda was routing money from Europe to the Peruvian capital of Lima and then to India and at least one case per month was being noticed in 2009 as per FIU head Enrique Saldivar.

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Al Qaeda footprint in India A review of the incidents reported above would denote that while the Al Qaeda has failed to penetrate India despite the many faultlines this is not for want of trying. From Kashmir in the 1990’s to Pune in 2010, footprints of the group have been noticed by the Indian security establishment. In most of the cases Al Qaeda has acted through proxies as it lacked indigenous leadership. Recent reports indicate nomination of Ilyas Kashmiri as the first commander of Al Qaeda in India. Kashmiri has a very dangerous reputation as a terrorist organiser and may be able to activate the dormant network to greater effect. The creation of Lashkar supported group, the Indian Mujahideen is another dangerous trend in this direction. So we have to view the future ahead with caution.

Ilyas Kashmiri factor As the proverbial saying by the Taliban goes, “you have the watch but we have the time.” Terrorist groups have infinite patience and perseverance. The Al Qaeda targeted the United States from the early 1990’s and could carry out a major attack only in 2001. Similarly India will have to maintain a vigil despite low penetration of the group and the death of bin Laden. The likely rise of Ilyas Kashmiri, who unlike other senior Al Qaeda commanders has experience of fighting in Jammu and Kashmir and thus can effectively organise major terrorist acts, is also a warning. Kashmiri is reportedly associated with the Harkat-ul-Jihad Islami’s (HuJI) and led the so called Brigade 313 operations in Jammu and Kashmir. The importance given to Kashmiri is evident from an audio message by Al Qaeda’s former senior commander Mustafa Abu al-Yazid posthumously indicating that Kashmiri is the leader of, “Qaedat al-Jihad in Kashmir”. Analysts also feel that Kashmiri fills up the major void for the organisation of an indigenous leader and may shift focus to a terrorist attack in the hinterland with Jammu and Kashmir militancy on the ebb. The David Headley episode is also indicative of the larger designs of groups as the LeT. Headley had carried out reconnaissance of a variety of locations including oil installations,

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the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA the country’s premier defence institution, National Defence College and the Prime Minister’s residence. The group may use its own resources or take assistance of the LeT or the Indian Mujahideen for a terror attack in the country in the future as the threat will remain in being for some time to come. On the other hand there is some support to the group amongst mainly marginalised separatist leaders as Syed Ali Shah Geelani who led funeral prayers for bin Laden in Jammu and Kashmir. Taking advantage of the liberal Indian milieu, Geelani has been actively following a deviant path. The radical agenda of such leaders will have to be effectively countered.

Al Qaeda will fail in India Despite the forebodings highlighted above, the Al Qaeda may succeed only in an episodic attack in India and there are no reasons to fear the movement taking roots in the country. Osama bin Laden’s isolationist mindset as he was the only child of the wealthy Saudi family who did not travel abroad for study was particularly weak in identifying with other cultures. Thus despite many attempts Kashmir’s largest and indigenous militant organisation, Hizb ul Mujaheedin never joined the Al Qaeda network. This strain is evident across the country as Indian Muslims including prominent clerics of the Deobandi School have spoken strongly against terror, violence and suicide attacks. Islamist extremist violence in India is based more on socio-economic grievances thus the Al Qaeda is unlikely to find much favour for its brand of religious extremism.

Pluralist ethos Osama bin Laden perhaps never understood the Indian socio-cultural ethos and values practising syncretism as opposed to monotheist absolutism preached by the Al Qaeda. This is evident as the security establishment has been able to successfully neutralise the militancy in Jammu and Kashmir

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Dr. Manpreet Sethi

with support of the people of the state. The “Foco,” and “Detonator,” theories spawned by bin Laden by imposing an Islamist veneer has no traction in India. However the terrorist network across the border in Pakistan remains a potential cause for worry. There are no signs that the same may be wound up. While bin Laden is dead, it will be some time before the Al Qaeda will be truly defeated. Of the many ways in which terrorism ends, the death of a leader is possibly one of the weakest vectors for change. Thus the Al Qaeda will continue to haunt security planners and counter-terror forces across the world including India. Al Qaeda’s singular failure in making an impact in the largest democracy with the second largest Muslim population in the world remains a mystery to many. The group never appreciated the pluralist and secular ethos which has rejected the likes of bin Laden over the centuries. The Al Qaeda could only depend on its network with groups like the LeT. Will bin Laden’s death and a shake up in leadership with Ilyas Kashmiri likely to assume a major role in the Majlis change this approach remains to be seen. However till Pakistan’s approach to terrorism is ambivalent and terrorist infrastructure remains in being across the border, the Al Qaeda will remain a threat in being though its ideology will not find many takers in India. The writer is an army veteran presently Director of Sasia Security-Risks.com Pvt Ltd, a South Asian security risk and knowledge management consultancy. His most recent book is, “Securing India: Assessment of Security and Defence Capabilities”.

Osama gone ... now the nukes?

That three helicopters full of SEALs could do Osama in does not translate into doing the same to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal to prevent it from falling into terrorist hands or, conversely, preventing an insider from unleashing a holocaust out of misplaced religious fervour. Things are only going to get worse if the nuclear dimension comes into play. The only silver lining that one perceives in the looming clouds is India’s long-held position that there should be universal and complete nuclear disarmament. But will Pakistan willingly give up such a provenly useful multipurpose geopolitical tool? It has already threatened to pour gasoline over fire if ISI operatives are indicted in a US court for planning and executing the Mumbai terrorist attack.

hile the death of Osama bin Laden certainly signifies the end of the life of the ‘most dreaded terrorist’, it nevertheless marks the beginning of the search for answers to a spate of difficult questions. These range from the nature and extent of involvement of the Pakistani military and intelligence establishment in not just providing Osama with a safe haven but the larger issue of its use of terrorism as a foreign policy tool, to the possibility of a course correction by the Pakistani nation and society, to the future of the US-Pakistan relations, to the prospects for Al Qaeda and many more. On most of these, the predominant view is that a business-as-usual approach would eventually prevail after a short period of turbulence.

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Will US grab Pak nukes? Meanwhile, in hushed whispers, two concerns of the nuclear kind are also being talked about – the possibility of nuclear terrorism as revenge against Osama’s death; and, the possibility of the US executing a similar operation to remove Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. What are the chances of these occurrences coming to pass? The answer to this calls for a cold analysis of facts, instead of attempts at overplaying or underplaying the threats.

and Syria, was run with the knowledge and involvement of the intelligence and military establishments. The disclosure, however, did cause considerable discomfiture to Islamabad and it is likely that security of nuclear weapons and export controls in Pakistan have considerably improved since then. Islamabad has received special funds from the US, to the tune of 100 million dollars, for improving the safety and

or for purely monetary gains. Thirdly, according to some intelligence reports, the remnants of the A. Q. Khan network are yet active.

Expanding, dispersed arsenal A fourth factor is far more worrisome. Pakistan is in the throes of expanding its nuclear arsenal and therefore, there is heightened activity in the nuclear

Abbottabad. Therefore, the security of its nuclear weapons and infrastructure should be of as much concern to Pakistan as it is to the international community.

Surgical disarmament A second issue that has received considerable attention after Operation Geronimo is the ability and the

India automatic target The simultaneous conduct of more than one operation at different sites, even if these were precisely known (which itself is difficult to conceive), is even more hard to imagine, let alone execute. And, just in case this was contemplated and executed, but some nuclear weapons got left behind, one could be sure that Rawalpindi would

task since Pakistan uses its nuclear weapons for many purposes – to deter conventional war, to wage proxy war through terrorism, to extract financial and military aid through effective bargaining and generally to maintain its relevance in the Islamic world. Obviously, the Pak military establishment would be loath to give away such a multipurpose tool. But the drastic dangers that the nation’s

On the first issue of nuclear terrorism, the fears being expressed on the possibility of the Al Qaeda letting lose ‘nuclear hell’ emanate from the mention that is supposed to have been made in one of the WikiLeaks where some of the detainees at Guantanamo disclosed such plans in case Osama was captured or killed. It is believed that revenge for such an act would merit an extreme act of nuclear retribution.

Protecting nuclear materials In an assessment of whether this could happen, let us begin with the good news first. There is little doubt that the attention devoted to security of nuclear materials, technology and weapon systems has considerably increased in the last few years. The high profile Nuclear Security Summit called by President Obama in March 2010, where more than 45 heads of government committed to improving national and international mechanisms and procedures for nuclear security, has at least drawn attention to the issue at the highest level. The nations hope to secure all nuclear material worldwide by 2014 and next year the progress on this front will be assessed at another Summit at Seoul.

Bad Pak record Pakistan has proved to be the weak link in this chain as was starkly brought out in 2003 by the revelations of a brilliantly executed A. Q. Khan network. While the Pakistan government and the military was quick to dismiss this as a ‘rogue’ enterprise run at the individual behest of A. Q. Khan, there is little doubt that the nuclear smuggling network that brought in weapons related material and technology into Pakistan as also transferred the same to other nations from Pakistan, including to Iran, Libya

physical security of its nuclear assets. And some efforts would certainly have been made to tighten the controls over Pakistan’s ‘strategic assets’.

Al Qaeda efforts The bad news, however, is that there have been several reports, periodically interspersed over the last decade or so, that indicate the efforts of the Al Qaeda at trying to acquire nuclear weapons and material. There is, of course, no definite information, at least not in the public domain, on how successful these efforts might have been. But, one must take into account some factors which add to the concern, especially where Pakistan is concerned. First, the country is infested with the presence of armed, motivated terrorist organisations which are as anti-west and anti-India, as anti-Pakistan establishment and they have an expressed desire to gain control of WMDs. Secondly, there is the threat from Islamic sympathisers within the Pakistan military and the government, who could be tempted to transfer control over such material or systems for the sake of the ‘cause’,

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complex involving more material and men. In such a situation, the chances of the security being compromised, especially in a State that is not the most politically stable, do exist. The material in labs and other places could possibly leak out, especially if sympathetic insiders are involved. Besides, Pakistan is moving towards building a nuclear capability which it believes can be used in a tactical manner against military targets. Short range nuclear capable ballistic missiles (of the Hatf IX variety) whose command will be passed on to missile units could pose a nightmarish situation in case of loss of control over such dispersed units. The more dispersed the arsenal becomes the greater are the chances of wilful or inadvertent loss of control over them, especially as the non-State actors too grow in numbers, strength and motivation to wreak a spectacular revenge. However, any incident of nuclear terrorism that is traced back to Pakistan would certainly be disastrous for the country - much more than the finding of Osama bin Laden at

likelihood of the US carrying out a similar surgical exercise to disarm Pakistan of its nuclear weapons. Could highly trained commandos ‘steal’ Pakistan’s nuclear weapons? Given that its strategic weapons have been described as having a ‘life saving property’ akin to ‘oxygen’ by a former Pakistani army chief, it is hardly surprising that such an eventuality should have crossed the minds of several in the country. The feasibility and desirability of such an exercise, however, needs to be questioned. First of all, it is well known that Pakistan has built a nuclear arsenal of a substantive size that could be close to a hundred warheads. Common sense would tell that these cannot all be found in one location and certainly not in undefended civilian premises. In fact, the physical security enhancement, for which the Americans have provided the money, would first stand in the way of any such effort. Hence, the possibility of a clean sweep to ‘surgically take out’ all the weapons in one go is well nigh impossible.

rather fire them to wreak revenge. And knowing the range of the Pakistani delivery systems, one can easily calculate where the remnant weapon(s) would be targeted. Let us now examine the desirability of such an exercise. While there is little doubt that the presence of nuclear weapons anywhere and especially in Pakistan given its propensity to use them for waging sub-conventional warfare through terrorism, is highly dangerous, a military manoeuvre for their removal can never be the ideal solution. In case the international community is sufficiently worried about the existential risks that accompany the presence of nuclear weapons, serious efforts need to be considered towards removing these weapons from all national arsenals worldwide.

Universal disarmament Or in other words, the only way in which we can get rid of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons is to engage it in an exercise of universal nuclear disarmament. This cannot be an easy

nuclear weapons pose will call for drastic international measures of the diplomatic and not the military kind. As has been said earlier in this article, there is every possibility that the world will settle back into a business-as-usual approach with Pakistan soon enough. But if the dangers are to be stopped from growing further, much more out-of-the-box thinking is needed to deal with the challenge staring us in the face. The writer heads the project on Nuclear Security at the Centre for Air Power Studies. She is author of the books Nuclear Strategy: India’s March towards Credible Deterrence (2009) and Argentina’s Nuclear Policy (1999); co-author of Nuclear Deterrence and Diplomacy (2004) and editor of Towards a Nuclear Weapons Free World (2009), Global Nuclear Challenges (2009). Her research papers on nuclear energy, nuclear strategy, proliferation, disarmament, ballistic missile defence and related issues have been published in national and international academic journals and books. She regularly lectures at training establishments of Indian Armed Forces and has participated in Track II meetings.

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Hot pursuit, they say, is foreign to our culture. The path of retributive justice as trod by the US in Abbottabad is even more difficult for us to traverse. No wonder, then, Pakistan sees no urgency to accede to Indian demands that it hand over criminals, gun-runners and terrorists for trial in India. Trial on terrorism charges can take the better part of a lifetime with uncertain results. After the American action will Pakistan behave more responsibly in dealing with terrorists? Very unlikely.

n the list of 150 persons wanted by India from Pakistan the ten Most Wanted are the following:

1) Maulana Azhar Masood, leader of Jaish-e-Mohammad, blamed for the attack on India’s parliament. He is also wanted for an attack on the Jammu and Kashmir legislature on October 1, 2001 in which 38 people were killed.

7) Abdul Razzak, accused of involvement in the Mumbai blasts. He is wanted in cases of terrorism and arms smuggling. He lives in Karachi.

2) Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, co-founder of Lashkar-e-Toiba, also blamed for the attack on parliament in New Delhi. He operates from Muridke town, near Lahore.

8) Syed Salahuddin, lives in Muzaffarabad. He is head of Hizbul Mujahideen, which has claimed responsibility for dozens of attacks on Indian forces in held Kashmir.

3) Dawood Ibrahim, an Indian underworld don, accused of planning and financing 13 explosions in Mumbai in 1993 in which almost 300 people died. Ibrahim is wanted in connection with cases of arms supply, counterfeiting, drugs trade, funding alleged criminals, murder and smuggling. He lives in Karachi.

9) Ibrahim Athar, an associate of Maulana Azhar Masood, living in Bahawalpur. He is one of the hijackers of Indian Airlines flight IC-814 from Kathmandu to Delhi in 1999.

4) Chhota Shakeel, a key associate of Ibrahim. Wanted for murder, extortion, kidnapping, blackmail of businessmen and film stars. He is a top spy for the ISI, now living in Karachi. 5) “Tiger” Ibrahim Memon, accused of executing the 1993 Mumbai blasts. He is wanted in cases of murder, extortion, kidnapping, terrorism and smuggling arms and explosives. Memon, another key associate of Ibrahim, lives in Karachi and travels frequently to Dubai.

6) Ayub Memon, accused of executing the 1993 Mumbai blasts. He is alleged to have helped his brother Ibrahim Memon carry out the blasts. He is wanted in cases of terrorism and smuggling. He also lives in Karachi.

10) Zahoor Ibrahim Mistri, in Karachi, a member of Harkat-ul-Ansar, which later changed its name to Harkat-ul-Mujahideen. He is wanted in connection with the hijacking of IC-814.

Can justice be done? A major question which arises, is whether we can bring these people to India to face the Indian laws. One thing is very clear that Pakistan is following the policy that my neighbour’s enemy is my friend. It is for this reason that all these people have a free run of that country. India may cry hoarse to get the

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Joginder Singh, IPS (Retd.)

wanted man to face the laws of India, but the standard reply from Pakistan is going to be, that the wanted individual is not a Pakistani or that he or she is not in Pakistan. This was exactly the stand they took in the case of Kasab of 26/11 infamy. Apart from that it is time to examine, our own case files, whether we have impeccable and creditworthy evidence against such people. A number of persons involved in 1993 bomb blasts, apart from the 26/11 as well as in the attack on Parliament have been acquitted. Our laws were framed in 1863, when the terrorism did not exist. It is exactly like pitting a bullock cart against superfast Maruti or Mercedes car of 2011.

No rights for victims In the name of so called Human Rights, all the rights of acquittals have been conferred on the criminals and not their victims. I am certain that even if such people are extradited, against all possible hopes, they will hardly be convicted. For each country, its self interests count and they pay lip service, to all such rights. But except in the case of India, every country puts its own interest and security above so called Human Rights. Americans still have Al Qaeda prisoners in Guantanamo Bay. The Guantanamo Bay camp is a detainment facility of the United States located within the United States’ Guantanamo Bay Naval Base on the island of Cuba.

The facility was established in 2002 by the Bush Administration to hold detainees from the war in Afghanistan and later Iraq. The detainment areas consist of three camps: Camp Delta (which includes Camp Echo), Camp Iguana and Camp

X-Ray, the last of which has been closed. The facility is often referred to as Guantánamo, G-Bay or Gitmo and has the military abbreviation GTMO. There are 779 persons detained there, since 2008 on suspicion of being terrorists.

Slow trials Forget about getting the wanted back to India, from Pakistan, India is not even able to have expeditious trials of the terrorists. The charges in the Court of Batla House Incident which happened

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in 2008 have been framed in 2011. It took 13 years for the trial to be completed of 1993 Mumbai blasts. Unfortunately, in the country governments only react and not take pre-emptive action to prevent the terrorism incidents. We are good in talks and in making big statements, whether it is the Army Chief or other Defence Services Officers, but extremely poor in follow up.

Brig. (Retd.) Gurmeet Kanwal

Pakistan’s direct involvement A man going by the name of Major Iqbal, believed to be working with the Pakistan Army’s Inter-Services Intelligence, is among five Pakistanis chargesheeted in an American court for conspiracy in the 2008 Mumbai terror strike. The US has informed India. The April 26, 2011 chargesheet submitted to a Chicago court has also named Sajid Mir, Abu Qahfa and Mazhar Iqbal. Among the Pakistani men, four are wanted by India in the Mumbai terror strike that left 166 people dead over three days of mayhem from November 26-29, 2008. Chargesheet says that Major Iqbal, 35, was posted in Lahore during 2007 and 2008. “Major Iqbal was actively involved in planning and execution of the Mumbai terror attack ... He was also handling David Coleman Headley on behalf of the ISI for the Mumbai terror attack. He provided US$ 25,000 to Headley for meeting his expenses during the surveillance operations in India,” according to USA. Headley had in March 2010 pleaded guilty to 12 criminal counts, including aiding and abetting the murder of US citizens, in Mumbai and agreed to cooperate with the prosecution in a plea bargain to escape the death penalty. Headley has admitted to have given all the surveillance videos shot for conducting the attack to Iqbal and then to the terror outfit, the US official said. “Sajid Majeed, the second person named in the US court, is a senior LeT commander who heads the Indian set-up of the terror outfit. He was the key planner of the Mumbai terror attack. He was personally involved in the training and briefing of all the 10 terrorists who carried out the Mumbai attack,”.

Indian response inadequate We all know that talk does not cook rice, but somehow we believe that by a miracle, it might well happen. It does not need any great intelligence to come to the realisation, that we have a rogue State as our neighbour, whose only reason for existence is the division of India, into two parts, a Muslim Pakistan and a Hindu majority area. India has chosen the path of equality and embracing minorities, whereas Pakistan has mostly succeeded in flushing out minorities there. Official US records, revealed by WikiLeaks contain interrogation reports and analysis of 779 Gitmo inmates of the prison. They have brought out that American anti-terror experts were aware that terror operatives in India were being directed by Pakistani officials and at least one of the Lashkar-e-Toiba militants in custody at Guantanamo Bay is a direct ISI agent. The files have also revealed the extent of Al Qaeda’s interest in India, including a plan to bomb an Indian airliner, besides using India as a platform to send operatives to the western world, given the comparative low scrutiny for Indian travellers.

Surgical strike? The truth is since India is governed by ancient worthies, where the unwritten informal party cadre rules, all political parties lay down that the

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eligibility criteria of being the Head of Indian Government, you have to be 70 plus and with almost one foot in the grave, from whom generally nothing much can be expected, in the form of an initiative or a drive. Only countries having younger leaders, whether USA or UK or France have made political or economic strides. When we had young men or women, like Nehru, Rajiv Gandhi or his mother Indira Gandhi, bold decisions and still bolder lead was visible. Unfortunately, that is not the position today though we have some impeccably honest leaders. So expecting that any terrorist wanted by us is likely to be handed over to us by Pakistan is like asking for the moon. Unfortunately, we do not have any clear policy of dealing with terrorism, except for condemning the terrorists or calling them cowards or saying that they would get their just deserts. It is time for our leaders to realise that the very essence of leadership is its purpose. And the purpose of leadership is to accomplish a task. That is what leadership does – and what it does is more important than what it is or how it works. The writer is former Director of Central Bureau of Investigation and is best known for bringing the Bofors papers from the Swiss Courts to New Delhi. As a student he was selected for the Indian Police Service at the age of 20. He is both a regular columnist of leading dailies in India and an author of repute, with 50 books (including versions in Indian and foreign languages) to his credit.

lessons from

operation Osama

Operation Geronimo by which the US Special Forces got Osama bin Laden in a special safe haven in the heart of a military cantonment has brought to the fore the moral aspects of dealing with a State that not only harbours terrorists but participates in the planning and execution of terrorist attacks. Not everything is out in the open as yet but from what has been said there is not much left to trust the Pakistani nation-State. Shocked though it is by the surgical strike that exposed its own nefarious activities Pakistan is in no hurry to reform and is holding out blatant threats of escalation of violence in the neighbourhood. There may well be no other way to deal with a rogue State highly skilled in the dispensation of terror. June 2011 Defence AND security alert

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orders around 1997.

he killing of Osama bin Laden by US Special Forces in Abbottabad, a Pakistan military cantonment that houses the Pakistan Military Academy and the Baloch Regiment Centre, is undoubtedly a significant achievement in the annals of counter-terrorism. About 70 US troops, largely Navy SEALs, were involved in the heliborne operation launched from Jalalabad, Afghanistan. Of them, 24 commandos rappelled down directly into the compound, engaged Osama and his party in a fire-fight and killed him. While one helicopter had to be destroyed, there were no American casualties. Operation Geronimo was a classic textbook military operation that will be studied for many years by military planners. It was boldly conceived, meticulously planned and methodically executed.

The Indian armed forces possess limited air assault capabilities, but these need to be modernised and qualitatively upgraded. The Indian army has half a dozen Special Forces battalions, the navy has some MARCOS (marine commandos) and the air force has a Garuda commando unit. These capabilities need to be substantially enhanced, particularly the ability to fly nape-of-the-earth on a dark night while evading radar detection.

Air assault division

On hindsight While the surgical strike in Abbottabad has brought closure to the decade-long hunt for the world’s most wanted terrorist, it is not merely about Osama bin Laden – it is also about Pakistan. By ordering attacks on several American targets on September 11, 2001, bin Laden had written his own death warrant and it was only a matter of time when he would be hounded out from his hiding place and where that hiding place would be found. Everybody is now saying ‘I had told you so’, but it was as clear as daylight to all perceptive analysts that there was no way a man on weekly kidney dialysis could hide in the caves of Afghanistan. He had to be somewhere in Pakistan close to a military hospital and that is where he was finally found. It is completely in keeping with the Pakistan army and the ISI’s perfidious character that Osama was found in a Pakistani cantonment. General Musharraf had vehemently denied that Pakistan was providing safe havens to the wanted terrorist and his successor General Kayani has been doing the same. Pakistan’s double game was finally exposed.

Zero trust Though Pakistan is a non-NATO ally, clearly the US does not trust Kayani and his Generals. CIA chief Leon Panetta said after the strike, “It was decided that

any effort to work with the Pakistanis could jeopardise the mission. They might alert the targets.” John Brennan, counter-terrorism adviser to President Obama has said, “It was inconceivable that Osama bin Laden did not have a support system in Pakistan that allowed him to remain there for an extended period of time.” Also, only a week ago leaked US embassy cables had described the ISI as a terrorist organisation. Hard questions are now being asked and several US Senators and members of Congress have called for the suspension of all aid to Pakistan.

Temporary setback The death of bin Laden will not mark the end of Al Qaeda’s terrorist strikes. It will be only a temporary setback for the organisation as it has a cellular structure and is not a hierarchical organisation. Leaders heading various cells have always operated fairly autonomously and will continue to do so. The Al Qaeda has developed linkages with and coordinates its operations with many international affiliates, including the LeT, JeM and HuJI. Its peculiar brand of jihad will go on. In fact, in the short term, some reprisal attacks may be expected against western targets and those in India. A spectacular attack with a ‘dirty nuke’ – a high explosive bomb filled with radioactive material – also cannot be ruled out.

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ISI a rogue agency The international community will have to take a call on whether or not to continue dealing with Kayani and the ISI with kidgloves. Since the ISI knew about Osama’s presence at Abbottabad for five years and even provided support to him, it has been proved beyond an iota of doubt that it is a rogue intelligence agency that must be dismantled with despatch. The Pakistan army and the ISI are part of the problem and cannot, therefore, be part of the solution in the so-called ‘global war on terror’. Pakistan is in danger of collapsing from the centrifugal forces generated by internal instability and accentuated by creeping Talibanisation and its inner contradictions as a State ruled for long by the army. If the probability of collapse reaches the tipping point as it soon might, Pakistan’s nuclear warheads must be taken out or destroyed in order to avoid a nuclear holocaust on the Indian sub-continent. Such an international effort will invariably have to be led by the Americans. As the most directly affected party, India must provide all the help and assistance that the US might ask for, including direct military participation.

Raise conventional deterrence The main lesson for India from the spectacular military operation conducted by the CIA and the US

Special Forces is that nations that are too moralistic and legalistic in dealing with the complex challenge of state-sponsored terrorism usually end up as hapless victims. Only pro-active covert operations conducted by the counter-terrorism agencies and Special Forces can raise the cost for the adversary sufficiently enough to deter him from launching terror strikes. There is no reason why terrorist-criminals like Hafiz Sayeed, Masood Azhar and Dawood Ibrahim should be walking freely, planning future terrorist strikes and delivering inflammatory anti-Indian speeches from Pakistani soil. They can and must be brought to justice through covert operations launched by Indian counter-terrorism agencies in concert with armed forces personnel of the Special Forces.

Enhance special forces The US and Israel have repeatedly demonstrated their determination to eliminate non-State actors who plan terror strikes against them. In the interest of national security, India too must do the same. The major requirements for pro-active operations are political will, meticulous intelligence acquisition and the requisite counter-terrorism and military capabilities. The government must permit the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) to re-establish covert operations capabilities that were dismantled under a prime minister’s

General K. Sundarji, former Indian COAS, had advocated the raising of an air assault division comprising three brigade groups by about the year 2000. However, the shoestring budgets of the 1990s did not allow the army to implement his vision. Air assault capability is a significant force multiplier in conventional State-on-State conflict as well. The present requirement is of one air assault brigade group with integral helicopters for offensive employment on India’s periphery. Comprising three specially trained air assault battalions, integral firepower, combat service support and logistics support units, this brigade group should be capable of short-notice deployment in India’s extended neighbourhood by air and sea. Simultaneously, plans should be made to raise a division-size rapid reaction force, of which the first air assault brigade group should be a part, by the end of the 12th Defence Plan (2012-17). The second brigade group of the air assault division should have amphibious capability with the necessary transportation assets being acquired and held by the Indian Navy, including landing and logistics ships. The third brigade of the division should be lightly equipped for offensive and defensive employment in the plains and mountains as well as jungle and desert terrain. All the brigade groups and their ancillary support elements should be capable of transportation by land, sea and air and should be logistically self-contained. The recent commissioning of INS Jalashwa (former USS Trenton) has given the armed forces the capability to transport one infantry battalion by sea. The air force has limited tactical and strategic airlift capability. All of these capabilities must be enhanced to plug gaps in India’s ability to intervene militarily across

its borders when it becomes necessary to do so.

Raise cost of misadventure Military intervention capabilities, combined with the employment of Special Forces battalions when necessary, will allow India to undertake surgical strikes like Operation Neptune Spear – should diplomacy and covert operations fail to secure critical national interests. Such capabilities will also have deterrent value as these will raise the cost for rogue intelligence agencies like the ISI to support terrorist strikes in India. Unless India becomes the undisputed master of its own backyard in Southern Asia, including the northern Indian Ocean, it will not be recognised as the numero uno regional power, leave alone its aspirations to become a power to reckon with on the world stage. The time to start is now as India’s strategic environment is getting murkier by the day. Incidentally, much has been made by the media of the response of General V. K. Singh, the COAS, to a reporter’s question regarding India’s air assault capabilities. The COAS had said that all three Services had such capabilities. The COAS was asked a direct question and he gave a short, factually correct answer; no more, no less. What should he have said? No comment? It is the job of the COAS to enhance the quality of India’s deterrence through careful signalling. If some people wish that our country should continue to suffer ‘the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune’ because of the pernicious nature of the neighbour we have and do nothing in response, it is their business. In my view we should adopt pro-active measures to raise the cost for the Pakistan army and the ISI to wage their proxy/covert war against us and if that fails, we should raise the ante further. In his televised address on the morning after the attack at Abbottabad, President Obama had referred to the families of the victims of 9/11 and said justice had been done. The families of the victims of 26/11 in Mumbai are still awaiting justice. They will never get it from Pakistani courts. They are looking to the government of India for justice. The writer is Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi. Views are personal.

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endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

All nations around the globe need to tighten not just their own security but also improve cooperation among themselves on issues like extradition and sharing of intelligence about terrorists’ nests discovered within their territories. If the Global War on Terror is to be truly globalised this would be the best approach. If America can search out and destroy Osama in his safe haven why must India have to give assurances to Portugal that the death penalty should not be given to Abu Salem. This two-facedness will not do.

t is occasion to recall the President of United States Barack Obama’s major speech on Afghanistan policy at West Point on December 1, 2009 where he defined Afghanistan mission as follows “Our overarching goal (in Afghanistan) remains the same: to disrupt, dismantle and defeat AQ in Afghanistan and Pakistan and to prevent its capacity to threaten America and our allies in the future”. In the wake of the tragic event of 9/11 by the Al Qaeda forces the then United States retaliated by its invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001, declaring a “Global War On Terror”. Today the so called ‘War on Terror’ in Afghanistan has finally cemented the results for the US counter-terrorism forces and its intelligence services worldwide to disrupt the Al Qaeda organisations' networks, by locating and killing the founder of Al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden commonly abbreviated as OBL. It came to an end on 01 / 02 May 2011 when US forces targeted a compound in Abbottabad, a city located some 60 km north of Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital, this major operation was carried out by US Navy SEALs from the US Special Operations Command.

Repercussions This incident is considered worldwide a significant achievement in the US counter-terrorism efforts in the fight against war on terrorism in the last ten years. The death of OBL has both near as well as long term implications

not only for United States per se but it will also be at regional levels across the world. The problem needs a holistic approach to understand its implications by analysing the challenges that the Unites States can face in near future by terrorist activities. Firstly, it will also have implications on the Al Qaeda’s organisational networks worldwide, which can be seen at its functioning both at operational, leadership, its command and control level and more broadly on its future warfare strategy and tactics. Secondly, it has social, political, economic and military implications both in and outside United States. Thirdly, it has near and long term implications on the present and future role of US foreign policy in Afghanistan vis-a-vis its relation and dependency on Pakistan for logistics in the fight against the war on terror and lastly, it will force the Pakistan government to cooperate and prove its innocence against such activities, more specifically by providing a helping hand to India and assuring the international community of its support to eliminate terrorism. At the very outset we must understand and predict how Al Qaeda and organisations under its command and control that are victims of his death are likely to face the major challenge of his demise.

Internal conflicts Let us assume hypothetically that the

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death of OBL may give an opportunity for other top commanders to occupy his position by getting the powers to exercise control over the organisation. In demonstrating their own strategies internal conflicts may arise due to which each one of them might have to prove their strength and capabilities to control the command and operations. However, it is mystifying to predict who will head the organisation. As Jarrett Brachman, a leading US analyst on Al Qaeda predicts two younger Libyans as Attiyatallah and Abu Yahya al-Libi as likely successors to OBL. He also includes other potential candidates in the competition like Saif al-Adel, an Egyptian former Al Qaeda military commander and Nasser al-Wuhayshi, the Yemeni Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) leader and former personal secretary to bin Laden. The name of Ayman al-Zawahiri also tops the list of Al Qaeda leaders as mentioned by US national security advisor. However, it is essential to understand that it depends on who has been the most inspirational figurehead for jihad in the organisation who will be able to hold the ideology of jihad and influence more recruits in near future. The global jihad project was not run and controlled by OBL alone but has many leaders who have felt its ownership. In near future as well its leadership will face such setbacks and will not be under the command and control of one commander. His martyrdom will be supportive for recruitment of youngsters worldwide to spread the ideology of jihad and

Praful Adagale

hACK the hand that rocks the jihadi cradles many other networks established across the globe will indulge in attacks in or outside US in the memory of OBL. The immediate retaliation for OBL death was the attack by a suicide bomber near the Pakistan military centre

killing 80 people. It will also create diffusion amongst the organisation which has diverse networks worldwide and might force them to change their geographical locations for planning and command.

Recruitment His death will help the organisation to increase the recruitment process by spreading the propaganda using the most effective tools like Internet, by

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

The more important goal is to break the cycle of terrorist’s recruitment than to kill its leaders and restrict the logistics and financial support provided by transnational organised criminals. It is also important for US administration to maintain peace in the international security environment by finding solution not always by war but by using diplomacy as a tool to bring harmony especially in the west. It should also concentrate on the development and reconstruction process in Afghanistan to mark the beginning of a more stable government and increase the civil-military cooperation within the region. Lastly, Pakistan should not be left alone in the fight against terrorism in any case as the international community will pressure Pakistan government to dismantle future terror related activities. his speeches, missions and leadership roles towards the fight against the west. Any movement or strike against the odds requires an ideology as can be seen in Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) leader Al-Awlaki who is the most inspirational leader and motivator for its organisation in AQAP as he has the powers to defend his religion from other ideological attacks as well. But one also must remember that along with ideology it is also the western military intervention in the Islamic world and specifically in Afghanistan which is a driving force for recruits to accept such ideology. In that case, it is necessary for US to differentiate between Al Qaeda and Taliban. It is also important for US to remember what Madeleine Albright (Former US Secretary of State) stated “We also need to remember that ‘In fighting terrorism we should remember not to create more terrorists’. At present it is important for the US and rest of the world to attack the ideology in order to reduce its recruitment cycle. As US is also aware that now it has to reduce its troops in Afghanistan and help the government in rehabilitation process of the region although it will be difficult for the NATO led forces to convince all Afghans about their objectives and missions in the coming days.

US logistics The other implication will involve the United States more as it will face short term challenges in Afghanistan in terms of logistics support which is required for its troops and is routed through Pakistan. This may come to a halt as the Pakistan Parliament has raised objections to it. The US

immediate reaction after the operation to blame the Pakistan government for supporting and sponsoring terrorism gives little opportunity for the present Pakistani government to prove its incorruptibility in the fight against terrorism. However, it depends upon how the top leaders in government are able to persuade the international community especially the US as it has no alternative but to provide full support to the US. One must remember that the war against terrorism cannot be fought without the support and the willingness of Pakistan, till date it has to pay a huge price for the loss of both its men and material in the global fight against terrorism. However, it has been receiving enormous benefits financially to help the international community to continue its operations through its territory. Every major operation has its political, military and more importantly, the economic side as well which needs clear examination.

of troops in the region, which will be a part of its strategy to save money and help its present government to cover its cost of past military operations. It will reduce the military-related spending, like overseas contingency operations, which cost well over US$ 100 billion each year. The other concern will see a slit between the US and Pakistan strategic relations as well as on the bilateral cooperation with US. However, it will help the US to rethink on its financial and foreign assistance plan provided to Pakistan military and for other development within the country. As per the reports made by Congressional Research Service (CSR), a resolution on May 3, 2011, H.R. 1699, the Pakistan Foreign Aid Accountability Act, was introduced in the House. The Act would prohibit future foreign assistance to Pakistan unless the Secretary of State certifies that the Pakistani government was not complicit in hiding OBL.

Aid to Pakistan

The India factor

Since 2001, the US military spending has gone from US$ 300 billion to nearly US$ 700 billion. President Obama’s budget proposal for FY2012 not only recommends increasing defence spending to US$ 737 billion next year, but also only reduces spending over the short-term to US$ 680 billion annually by 2016. It is seen after the death of bin Laden that most of the contracts in US costing US$ 1 billion have been cancelled. It should provide an opportunity to reassess the efficacy of this approach in the coming budget debate. The US government may also feel pressure to speed up the drawdown

The other pressure on Pakistan will be by its main international rival India, where New Delhi is consistently forcing and convincing the international community to pressure Islamabad to extradite the alleged perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack, as well as Lashkar-e-Toiba members and top leaders resident in Pakistan and more remarkably most wanted anti-India terrorists like Dawood Ibrahim. It may also happen that US might take a U turn towards Pakistan in the search against Dawood Ibrahim and banning the LeT in Pakistan. However, in terms of

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

building more healthy relations with Afghanistan Prime minister of India has been the first foreign Head of State to address the parliament session on 15th May this year, where New Delhi has once again shown strong concern by assuring another US$ 500 million in development assistance to Afghanistan as the strategic partnership will also include training the Afghan armed forces and police personnel as well as increasing the economic cooperation from mining and for fuel and energy. However, India must also persuade its strategic partner United States to help India in rebuilding and reconstruction process in Afghanistan.

Rethink on extradition The major challenges before the Obama administration will be to cooperate with other regional partners like the European Union, India, which are more likely to face future attacks on their soil after the death of OBL. The terrorist’s will not make a mistake of attacking the US on its own soil but will demonstrate their capabilities in other territories. There is a need for all the nations to rethink the legal conditionalities and provisions within their constitution in terms of extradition policies with other countries, its intelligence and counter-terrorism sharing mechanism, to be more effective and practical in near future in case of extraditing any terrorists anywhere.

In case of South Asia, it is more likely to face major challenges by the Al Qaeda forces in order to prove their strength and capabilities and mark the beginning of a new warfare which OBL was not able to implement. Terrorism will prevail as long as the ideology of jihad continues to linger in the minds of the people against their own men. The more important goal is to break the cycle of terrorist’s recruitment than to kill its leaders and restrict the logistics and financial support provided by transnational organised criminals. It is also important for US administration to maintain peace in the international security environment by finding solution not always by war but by using diplomacy as a tool to bring harmony especially in the west. It should also concentrate on the development and reconstruction process in Afghanistan to mark the beginning of a more stable government and increase the civil-military cooperation within the region. Lastly, Pakistan should not be left alone in the fight against terrorism in any case as the international community will pressure Pakistan government to dismantle future terror related activities.

Civil war in Afghanistan Possible challenges also loom over US administration if in case there is a civil

conflict or unrest within Afghanistan. Will the Afghan government allow the US led forces to continue their operation in their own territory as OBL was located and killed in Pakistan province? Will US forces withdraw troops from Afghanistan, if so when? Who will be the next potential target of US for military intervention in another territory? These are questions which will loom large in the coming days, weeks or months for the United States. However, Al Qaeda members will not wait for election of new leaders to fill the vacant post of OBL, but will find effective ways to change their landscape for safe havens and for future operational planning. In that case US has to be more vigilant and its agencies should concentrate in analysing and ensuring how the radicalisation process can be stopped, for which it might now have to focus its attention on the domestic challenges faced within the United States in order to prevent another 9/11. Same goes for other nations like India and Europe to re-evaluate domestic internal security policies and secure their external boundaries to prevent another 7/7 or 26/11.

The writer is a PhD Research Fellow working in YCNISDA, University of Pune. His areas of expertise include International Terrorism, National Security, European Studies and Nuclear Terrorism.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

One cannot but agree that both the pre-Osama canvas and the post-Osama ambiance bear a resemblance that make for instability and germination of radical thought. Osama threatens to remain relevant till the seeds of an artificially created clash of civilisations are carefully harvested and destroyed. Pakistan, the most fertile of the seedbeds is not amenable to redemption. Europe, where the Ottoman ruled for centuries can yet undo the schisms of the mind if it will give thought to what made Ladenism so attractive to an otherwise cultured people.

sama bin Laden is as much as a phenomenon and an influence as is Mahatma Gandhiji. This is not a comparison but a societal reality. “Ahimsa” as a concept is eternal however fractured in practice. Similarly Osama has left behind, for posterity a violent, vulpine, visceral bin of anti-kafir (infidel) kinetics. (Incidentally, the word “kafir” means to hide or cover something. In its gross derogatory usage by the radical Islamists, it groups all non-Muslims as non-believers). His death may be only a temporary leadership vacuum. His hatred of the “kafir” highlighted and articulated in thoughts, plans and perverse mystique are well woven in the fabric of historical conscious and subconscious of the radicals. The genesis of this dates to the holy wars. It was further compounded, first, by the division of the Euphrates region, second by the American-Saudi royalty relationship and finally by the Israeli-Palestinian impasse.

a Westernised political and military ethos. Till the 90’s the West somehow handled the Arabs through a well stage-managed strategy. This took a unique form of cultivating a few at the virtual expense of the rest of that society. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya, being ready examples. These nations, received western military equipment and regime support. The West got oil, an attractive arms bazaar, with munificent commerce. This wealth, short circuited the wisdom of a much needed, sanguine world view of global economic, equity, equality. The propped up rulers got power and became richer. They also had unlimited access to the western playfields of pleasure ranging from thrills of adventure, sports, high stakes gambling to allure of the flesh. Temporarily forgotten were the realities of “back home in the desert” polemics. If the West was on a “high”, the sultans of Middle East were placed “higher”. This could not last any longer than it did.

The genesis of the scourge

The overthrow of the Shah of Iran, Israel-Palestine issue created vortices of counter-reaction in the spawning of movements like the Hamas, Al Qaeda, the Taliban, LeT and the like. Amidst all this, Saudi Arabia started playing a double role in funding terrorist organisations while maintaining relations with America and the West. Perhaps this was their survival allowance. All involved turned a blind eye. They still believed that they would be secure and it was okay to have these entities operate in South Asia and

The 18th / 19th century, World Wars I and II saw global Western emergence and virtual Caucasian dominance. Africa. Asia and the Orient were all occupied, exploited, governed and shared. The collateral metamorphosis of cultural, political, social, administrative changes had its traumas as well as absorption of social and cultural changes. The Middle East Oil, superior science and technology, advanced industry led to spread of

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

Osama still in the bin!?!

Vice Adm. (Retd.) Venkat Bharathan

elsewhere. Slowly and imperceptibly the clarion call of radicalism focused itself against western dominance and its adverse impact on Islam. The West answered through military power. Israeli military superiority, the Gulf war I and II gave these movements a cause alongside a severe inferiority complex. The consequent hatred of things Caucasian across race, religion, social mores, western ways of life and their liberated women, manifested itself in monstrous ways.

Muslim migrations The need of labour intensive human power in Europe, America, UK led to rapid increase in the transmigration of significant numbers of the Islamic faith. These countries provided them with freedom, liberty and ways of life that were unknown and never experienced by these immigrants. The most ironic, telling aspect was their subtle segregation into silos of social separation. The white folks saw them as pure labour instead of potential citizens who could be integrated into an acceptable blend of Islam and Christianity. The Church understandably stood aloof. In most cases these immigrants were left on their own. Muslim ghettos sprang echoing the early morning muezzin call. Europe experienced a change from the diffident first generation Muslim immigrant to second generation defiance. Openly and insidiously some of them graduated on to radicalism and terrorism. The Mosques and minarets

eventually became breeding grounds of misperceptions, suspicions and resentment both in the social order as well as in the polity. In the later 20th and early 21st century, you had a classic situation where many successful Muslims in the west had a sense of ambivalence about their country of domicile, despite economic and fiscal windfalls. Three or four generations grew up in this environment of

resentment and inferiority complex. Compounding this in the whole Arab World was propped up repressive regimes. Their autocratic governance, their part adoption of the alien western style of habit and dress kept them out of touch and contact with their own societies. The consequent economical and social backwardness of swathes of people bred hatred of the West. In the late nineties the oil rich Arab nations

had wealth while having people living in backwardness, virtually on dole. There was a growing perception in the Middle East that Islam was under threat once again along with subjugation of the people by the West. It was a volcano that was being artificially capped by an American led Western group that was oblivious to all these signs either by default or design.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

India and Pakistan have clear strategic, social interests in Afghanistan. The former has no clear strategy. The latter is blinded by its perverse India obsession that makes it feel insecure about Indian-Afghanistan cooperation. The greater irony is the return of the white man to South Asia in physical domination due to the absence and application of concerted regional power. Neither India nor Pakistan seem to factor the long term debilitating impact of an aggressive Western presence in the region. The sovereignty of the region being violated because of the combined geo-political infirmities of India and Pakistan does not seem to faze any one. Au contraire, the region seems to be relieved that someone else from so far away is fighting its battles. Democracy vacuum The democratic West that was against communism chose to let things be non-democratic in the Persian Gulf. Yet another monumental strategic omission was the failure to manage Iran post the Shah period, in the context of its 5,000 years plus civilisational and cultural genealogy. The Shia-Sunni divide, the declared Iranian anti-Israeli animosity, the Arab ire on the creation of the State of Israel, the desperate dispossessed state of the Palestinians, became seeds of discontent that germinated into thorns and branches of terrorism. It gradually grew up into several entities right under the very nose of everyone. The failure to read the signs of this simmering volcano can be laid on the lure of “black gold”. Oil, was the target along with high prospects of military hardware sales in the region. What happened on 9/11 and 26/11 are only harbingers of what is to come. In simplistic terms everyday life has become one of fright and fear. Air travel, port entries, freight of commerce are all now subject to complex, costly search and examine processes that have haunted the common world citizen since the last decade. This is the first “horrific”.

Osama – Ogre or hero AN overview of Osama rise and reach is an important lesson that must be read by one and all. Osama bin Laden left Saudi Arabia in 1979 to fight against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. His commitment to the spread of a fundamentalist variant of Islam is traced back to the late 1970s

when he established links with the cadre of the Muslim Brotherhood while pursuing a civil engineering degree in Saudi Arabia. On graduating, he formed the Islamic Salvation Foundation in Saudi Arabia. He later emerged as a key player in the fight against the erstwhile Soviet Union. It is believed that he had the tacit support of the CIA and ISI along with funds and arms. Osama perceived the Afghan conflict in the context of ‘Muslim believers vs heretics’. In his view, the term, ‘heretics’ included West accommodating moderate Arab regimes, and particularly USA. Osama believed that the Americans aimed to capture the Muslim holy sites of Mecca and Medina. They were also party, to the conquest of Palestine by Israel. He prophesied that jihad was the only way to elevate Islam above the “kafirs”. He not only encouraged, abetted the perpetration of terrorist violence but also justified them through various religious edicts. He openly decried the degraded moral standards of his enemies, the “kafirs”. He declared the USA to be the evil empire and a terrorist state that had ruthlessly dropped atomic bombs over Hiroshima and Nagasaki and had also bombed Iraq.

Anti-Jew, anti-Christian In order to further his terrorist acts, Laden formed the International Islamic Front against the Jews and the Crusaders. This group also issued a fatwa proclaiming that jihad against the heretics who conquer Muslim lands’ was incumbent upon all ‘believing Muslims’. His Al Qaeda network is reasonably organised, fairly extensive. It is very well funded with capacities to carry out large-scale terrorist acts

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across the globe. Considerable number of its group have been brainwashed into believing that they are actually martyrs for the greater cause of preserving Islam in all its purity. Al Qaeda has several core objectives of causing, death, destruction, disruption, in the West and South Asia. Simultaneously seduction of the people of Islamic faith in Africa and coercion of the moderates are its allied tasks. Over ten thousand Islamist terrorists have also been trained in camps run by the Al Qaeda. Funding for all these in millions of dollars is through donations from wealthy Muslim individuals and organisations. Osama is also reported to have succeeded in persuading the Muslim clergy in various Arab countries to issue a religious edict that would render it obligatory for Muslims to offer alms to the martyrs waging a holy war to destroy the infidels.

Osamaism for posterity His death has indeed dealt a severe blow to the leadership of the entire radical clan. Yet the resilience, resolve and robustness of the Osama phenomenon is well entrenched and can never fade away on his death. Times ahead are critical. The naïve may believe that this death would diminish and dilute the movement and weaken its extremist intensity. The pessimists fearfully await retribution with bated breath. The realists know that it would be business as usual but with greater cunning, stealth and care. Al Qaeda responses would be graded. It would hit wherever opportunity arises. The attacks in Pakistan are reminders to warn everyone that the baton of leadership has changed

with no change in anything else!

A legacy remains Everything that happens in South Asia has to be taken with a tablespoon of salt added with disparate intrigue, private deals, local expediencies. Anything that happens in Pakistan presents a picture of incipient instability, indigent desperation, and invidious mindsets. Seething anger at each other, over the state of affairs within, impotent rage of helplessness in the face of overbearing American presence, have, resulted in political, social, communal egregiousness. Taliban, LeT, ISI, the Pakistani military and their political establishment have created writs of their own. Nobody seems to be in charge.

Afghan conundrum India and Pakistan have clear strategic, social interests in Afghanistan. The former has no clear strategy. The latter is blinded by its perverse India obsession that makes it feel insecure about Indian-Afghanistan cooperation. The greater irony is the return of the white man to South Asia in physical domination due to the absence and application of concerted regional power. Neither India nor Pakistan seem to factor the long term debilitating impact of an aggressive Western

presence in the region. The sovereignty of the region being violated because of the combined geo-political infirmities of India and Pakistan does not seem to faze any one. Au contraire, the region seems to be relieved that someone else from so far away is fighting its battles. Nobody thinks that it is awkward and also unviable that Afghanistan can emerge unscathed by differing and opposing influences of India and Pakistan. Talks of compromise with the Taliban are indicative of this trend. The above is perhaps the biggest bequest of Osama dead or alive.

Osama still in the bin The trajectory of Islamic radical movement is well set. Counter-military operations are unavoidable imperatives. Protection and prevention of terrorism are overarching needs. This would be the strategy of containment. However elimination of the movement can be achieved only by ejection of Osama consciousness from the bin of the human mind. This would need concerted rejection from within. Pro-active propaganda, using successful Afghans and Muslims would perhaps pay good dividends. Some of them are willing to participate in this crusade too.

USA needs to strive to pressure Pakistan, influence India to look at Afghanistan through a prism of the future that would clearly show the need for Afghanistan to become stable and sustainable China too needs to be made to understand the impact of its strategic obtuseness in allowing an Afghan Pakistan combine to wallow in a social, ethnic and violent quagmire. SAARC, China, USA and NATO do have to take a Worldwide view that managing radicalism is never a zero sum game. Containment by Military action, has to be complemented by planned intensive, sensitive, sustained messaging to the people on the benefits and lasting social values of moderate ways of life in harmony with the rest of the World. The Middle east uprisings, the aspect of economic backwardness and the weaknesses of autocracy all have to be addressed by both the developed and developing world. Till then Osama still remains in the bin.

The writer is former Vice Chief of Naval Staff. He also served as Indian Naval Attache in Washington DC, USA.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

In recent times Pakistan has been strident in its assessment that the US is a power in decline and that China is on the rise. Between them the two “all weather friends” have milked the US of billions of dollars even as both have used terrorists and terrorism for geopolitical gains in the region most particularly the development of the Karakoram corridor for road, rail and oil and gas pipelines. These projects will give Beijing power projection capabilities into Afghanistan and the north Arabian Sea. What is India doing to safeguard her long-term geopolitical and security interests?

Pawan Agrawal

here has been lots of cheering in America and much sorrow (albeit many degrees lower than expected) in the Islamic world! All newspapers and news channels made it look as if the US had won the global war on terrorism and so much hue and cry in Pakistan by the government as well as civil society as if they had lost it.

Everyone applauded the operation conducted by the US commandos, but not everybody in America is happy with the financial aid to Pakistan. I am sure no one will agree to the dispatch of the next tranche of billions of dollars so close on the heels of what was clearly seen as an act of perfidy by Pakistan in allowing Osama bin Laden refuge in the Abbottabad cantonment. Can Mr. Obama justify the doling out of more dollars to Pakistan which is clearly milking America in the hope that it will speed up America’s decline from Super Power status and thereby facilitate China’s global hegemony? What are the compulsions? If not today, may be after some time Obama has to answer this question to the people of America as well as all peace loving people around the world those who are concerned for the defence and security of this world.

Aid misused The US aid has been exploited by the government of Pakistan in the past as well as in the present and it is going to continue in the same manner in the future too. Then what is the logic of this aid? Sometimes in the name of health projects or sometimes for education and sometimes for defence directly which is more or less being siphoned off by both the dictators and the neo-democrats in that country. The scenario is developing where US wants to oversee another military rule by a dictator in Pakistan who may fulfill the hidden agenda to establish more US military bases in and around Pakistan to counter China and have a Total Control Situation in the South East Asia around China. The level of investments US has made in the region in the recent past is very clear if we just assess the whole scenario.

Ban aid The only way to control the terrorism activities and the flourishing industry it has spawned is to ban all sorts of aid to Pakistan with immediate effect. How many billions of US dollars have been granted to Pakistan under various heads including the counterterror activities and defence related activities by the US government from time to time but the end result we see is that the mastermind of all terrorism activities had a very safe haven in the military area which was guarded by the military officials themselves. No more proof is required that the government of Pakistan and its military establishment are hand-in-glove with terrorist groups. The best solution for the Obama administration is to review the entire aid package being given to Pakistan before its too late. Most of which is used against humanity and if the present government of US really wants to resolve this decades-old problem then they should take a more serious view of bilateral relations with Pakistan.

Double game Pakistan is one of the largest recipients of US assistance. Nearly US$ 3 billion in US aid to Pakistan is planned for fiscal 2012. About US$ 1.6 billion of the FY2012 funds are security-related and most of the remaining US$ 1.4 billion is for economic development. Pakistan has received over US$ 20 billion in military and non-military aid since 2001. About US$ 9 billion of that total went to reimburse Pakistan for its expenses incurred in logistics support to US military operations (which was intermittently looted en route to Afghanistan by tribals in the pay of the Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence which was also involved in providing a safe haven for Osama bin Laden.)

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

Stop funding Pakistan:

for terror free world Now serious questions that arise: Will US government continue its aid programme to Pakistan at this juncture? Will US government seriously review and account for the entire aid given to Pakistan till date? Will US make more attempts to search for some more masterminds behind the entire game-plan of terrorism in Pakistan and the region? Will US join hands with India to

search out some more terrorists and fugitives in Pakistan? Will US plan a joint exercise with Indian armed forces to find out the people responsible for all attacks in India in the past like Dawood Ibraham, Hafiz Saeed and Azhar Masood etc.? Or will the US once again allow Pakistan to play out its perfidious game of hunting with the American hounds and running with the terrorists and international outlaws?

Creating building blocks There is no doubt that Pakistan is a key US ally in the effort to combat terrorism and violent extremism. Taliban, Al Qaeda and other terrorists have used parts of Pakistan to plan and launch attacks on Afghan, US and NATO security forces in Afghanistan, as well as on Pakistani citizens and security forces in Pakistan. Enhancing the effectiveness of civilian assistance to Pakistan is one of the US government’s top foreign policy and national security priorities. Foreign assistance

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

endgame?

the WORLD WITHOUT OSAMA

is vital to help the government of Pakistan overcome the political, economic and security challenges that threaten Pakistan’s long-term stability. Since 2002, the United States has provided over US$ 18 billion in foreign assistance and reimbursements to Pakistan, about two-thirds of which has been security-related. In October 2009, Congress passed the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act of 2009, which authorises up to US$ 1.5 billion a year for development, economic, and democratic assistance (henceforth referred to as “civilian assistance”) to Pakistan for fiscal years 2010 through 2014. In the Act, Congress declares that the United States requires a balanced, integrated, countrywide strategy to support Pakistan’s efforts that does not disproportionately focus on security-related assistance. The act authorises civilian assistance for a wide range of activities, including projects to build the capacity of government institutions, promote sustainable economic development and support investment in people through education and health programmes.

Oversight and accountability The Act also encourages, as appropriate, the use of Pakistani organisations to provide this assistance. In several reports and testimonies since 2008, General Accounting Office identified the need to improve planning, monitoring, documentation and oversight of US assistance to Pakistan. For example, in previous reports we have noted the need to increase oversight and accountability for Pakistan’s reimbursement claims for Coalition Support Funds and to improve planning, performance and monitoring documentation of US development assistance to Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act of 2009 requires the Department of State to develop several monitoring and strategy reports for US assistance to Pakistan, including the Pakistan Assistance Strategy Report and the Semi-Annual Monitoring Report. The Act also directed the Comptroller General to provide: (1) a review of and comments addressing State’s Pakistan Assistance Strategy Report; (2) an assessment of the impact of the civilian assistance on the security and stability of Pakistan; (3) a detailed description of the expenditures made by Pakistan

May 2 011

Subscribe Now! with Foreign Military Financing (FMF) grants; and (4) recommendations relating to any additional actions the Comptroller General believes could help improve the efficiency and effectiveness of US efforts to meet the objectives of the Act. In spite of such clear proofs of Pakistani government perfidy the US government defended continuing US aid to Pakistan in the wake of revelations that Osama bin Laden was hiding out in a million-dollar walled compound near Islamabad before he was slain by U.S. forces. Doubts about whether Pakistan has been a trusted partner in the effort against Al Qaeda surfaced again after learning that the residence was located in an area surrounded by Pakistan military. Even as John Brennan, the White House advisor on homeland security, contradicted Pakistan’s claims that the government was given advance warning by US intelligence officials about the raid that led to the death of the 9/11 mastermind, he praised Pakistan’s efforts in the long-running war on terror. Brennan pledged continued military and foreign aid, which has totaled US$ 18 billion since 2002, two-thirds of it security-related.

Things are not going to be as easy for US as well in the near future as the Taliban and Al Qaeda are going to retaliate and may launch fresh attacks on the US and NATO led forces and what is going to happen about the so called announcement of Obama in regard to the return of its forces from Afghanistan from the middle of this year? I think it is time to review of entire gamut of US-Pak relations, both security and geopolitical, before taking any final decision for the region. Afghan sovereignty must not be bartered away for ephemeral Pakistan support to the global war on terror. US and NATO forces may return peacefully but what is going to happen to the people and specially the innocent women and children of this region. I think their forces must remain in the region till things are under total control and the only way out I could see is that US should stop giving any sort of financial aid to Pakistan till things are in control.

June 2011 Defence AND security alert

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Source: Department of State's Report to Congress and U.S. Oversight of Civilian Assistance to Pakistan, GAO-11-310R, February 17, 2011

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GLOBAL DEFENCE AND SECURITY EVENTS / SHOWS June 2011

Sunday 5th June 2011 – Wednesday 8th June 2011 Middle East Maritime Security and Surveillance Beijing, China

Monday 27th June 2011 - Wednesday 29th June 2011 Future Land Forces 2011 Singapore

Monday 6th June 2011 - Wednesday 8th June 2011 Army Aviation Conference & Showcase Redstone FMWR Community Activity Centre, Redstone Arsenal, AL, USA

Monday 27th June 2011 - Thursday 30th June 2011 Military Logistics Summit 2011 Washington DC, USA

Monday 6th June 2011 - Thursday 9th June 2011 Armourcon Military Armour Exhibition And Conference Sheraton Premier At Tysons Corner, Vienna, Verginia USA

Monday 27th June 2011 – Thursday 30th June 2011 AIAA Fluid Dynamics Conference and Exhibit Sheraton Waikiki Hotel, Honolulu, USA

Tuesday 7th June 2011 - Friday 10th June 2011 Soldier Technology Olympia Conference & Exhibition Centre, London, United Kingdom

Monday 27th June 2011 – Wednesday 29th June 2011 International Defence Logistics and Support Hotel Le Plaza Brussels, Brussels, Belgium

Tuesday 7th June 2011 - Thursday 9th June 2011 Undersea Defence Technology 2011 Excel London, London, United Kingdom

Monday 27th June 2011 – Wednesday 29th June 2011 MAST Europe Maritime Systems and Technology Exposition and Conference Parc Chanot, Marseille, France

Tuesday 7th June 2011 - Friday 10th June 2011 Soldier Technology 2011 Olympia Conference Centre, London, United Kingdom Monday 13th June 2011 – Wednesday 15th June 2011 Annual IACP/Law Enforcement Information Management (LEIM) Section Training Conference/Expo Hilton San Diego Bayfront, San Diego, USA Monday 13th June 2011 - Thursday 16th June 2011 Military Healthcare Convention And Conference 2011 Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Centre, San Antonio, TX, USA Wednesday 15th June 2011 - Thursday 16th June 2011 Uv Europe 2011 Hotel Husa President Park, Brussels, Belgium

Tuesday 28th June 2011 – Thursday 30th June 2011 SECURITY ISRAEL - International Homeland Security Exhibition and Conference Israel Trade Fairs Center, Tel Aviv, Israel Tuesday 28th June 2011 – Thursday 30th June 2011 International Defence Logistics and Support Hotel Le Plaza Brussels, Brussels, Belgium Wednesday 29th June 2011 - Sunday 3rd July 2011 Imds-2011 International Maritime Defence Show Lenexpo Fairground, St Petersburg, Russia

Monday 20th June 2011 - Wednesday 22nd June 2011 Future Artillery India 2011 Le Meridian, New Delhi, India Monday 20th June 2011 - Wednesday 22th June 2011 Indesec Expo - India’s Homeland Security and Defence Systems Exhibition Pragati Maidan, New Delhi, India Saturday 25th June 2011 - Monday 27th June 2011 Night Vision Systems Summit 2011 Washington DC, USA

Courtesy: Pawitra International Private Limited, New Delhi www.pawitra.com