DSA June 2014 by Defence and Security Alert

ARTIF ICIAL INTELLIGENCE

AND ROBOTICS IN DEFENCE AND SECURITY

editor-in-chief

DSA is as much yours, as it is ours!

ndian politics has seen a paradigm shift. The momentous verdict of 2014 is deeply connected to its recent past and also has a long-term impact on its political and social development. The mandate is significant for many things, foremost of which is the fact that India voted for change like it hasn’t in decades. The upheaval of 2014 is certain to have long-term implications for Indian politics, governance, decision-making and most of all in the realms of policy formulation. The change that India has voted for must also be reflected in changes in policy. People have voted for a change in how India is governed. They have voted out the old order, the established way of governing India and how policies are made in the country. This desire for change must be respected while formulating policies. And amongst the most important is defence. The manner in which the electorate has remade the political map of India must now be reflected in how defence policies are made in the country. The starting block of which is the functioning of the Ministry of Defence. Amongst the most sensitive of ministries and departments in India, the Ministry of Defence runs in an antiquated framework that goes totally against the times and requirements. Despite progress in every field the MoD continues to function with the fear that a military coup can happen unless the armed forces are kept firmly in check. Enough water has flown down the Ganga since 1947 to suggest that perpetuating this fiction has only harmed Indian national interests even as it has infected the decision-making process. The bureaucrat heavy approach of running the MoD must be jettisoned in order to make it an efficient ministry that functions according to the times. This is not to say that there should be no bureaucracy in the MoD. The civilian presence in the ministry is a must, but what is not is the dependence on them in decision-making. Greater coordination with the three Service headquarters is vital, so that the specialists in war fighting are part of the loop when it comes to deciding policies, programmes, priorities and principles of defence. Foremost is the need to expedite decision-making, not like the way the MoD was run by the former Defence Minister. Armed with an impeccably honest image, but the MoD was harmed by his lack of decision-making. Along with decision-making there is an important need to maintain probity and transparency while taking decision. In essence the MoD is only being secretive from Indians when it comes to decision-making, because the evaluation and execution of orders is freely known to foreign nationals who manufacture the weapon systems; or their representatives. This is a myopic policy, retards national interests and promotes corruption. Greater transparency can only encourage clean and good governance. Which is the mood of the 2014 vote. To ensure good governance and able decision-making there is a need to restructure the MoD. It cannot be run efficiently in the manner it is currently made. This also means that the three services have to be part of the restructuring. Antiquated structures abound in the services too. In the age of digitisation there is a need to smarten up the financing of the services. There is, for example, no need for the three services to duplicate or triplicate institutions and schools of instruction. Or for that matter repair workshops, bases and headquarters. For starters joint command headquarters must be established across the country. War fighting is best done jointly. By which it means it should be planned jointly, armed jointly and executed jointly. A joint special operations command is a prime example of tri-service cooperation. Living in silos and then hoping to score victories only adds to unnecessary costs and causes delays. This requires modernisation, as much in thought, manpower, as in equipment too. The ultimate weapon in war has always been the mind. And in the new era of technologies the human mind has created weapon systems that were unimaginable barely a generation ago. Even as unmanned aerial vehicles have taken the world by storm, there has been an exponential growth in robotics and artificial intelligence. These are all essential parts of modern war preparations and war fighting. The future, therefore, is known. The challenge is to reach it with efficiency. Crux of the 2014 mandate.

Manvendra Singh June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

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new government Strategic Vision And Steely Resolve

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Volume 5 Issue 9 June 2014 Chairman Shyam Sunder Publisher and CEO Pawan Agrawal Editor-in-chief Manvendra Singh Director Shishir Bhushan Corporate consultant KJ Singh Art consultant Divya Gupta Central Saint Martins College Of Art & Design, University Of Arts, London Corporate communications Mamta Jain Representative (USA) Steve Melito Representative (J and K) Salil Sharma Correspondent (Europe) Dominika Cosic Production Dilshad and Dabeer Webmaster Sundar Rawat IT operations Mahendra Singh Dhruv Bisht Ankit Kumar Photographer Subhash Circulation and distribution Anup Kumar E-mail: (first name)@dsalert.org info: info@dsalert.org articles: articles@dsalert.org subscription: subscription@dsalert.org online edition: online@dsalert.org advertisement: advt@dsalert.org Editorial and corporate office 4/19 Asaf Ali Road New Delhi-110002 (India) t: +91-011-23243999, 23287999, 9958382999 e: info@dsalert.org www.dsalert.org Disclaimer

All rights reserved. Reproduction and translation in any language in whole or in part by any means without permission from Defence and Security Alert is prohibited. Opinions expressed are those of the individual writers and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher and / or editors. All disputes are subject to jurisdiction of Delhi Courts. Defence and Security Alert is printed, published and owned by Pawan Agrawal and printed at Graphic World, 1686, Kucha Dakhini Rai, Darya Ganj, New Delhi-110002 and published at 4/19 Asaf Ali Road, New Delhi (India). Editor: Manvendra Singh

hen you see a young labourer, sitting on a rickshaw, talking on a cellphone to someone far away, you realise how smoothly and swiftly technology has crept in and made inroads into life in India. We all understand the vital role of technology as it mushrooms around us in our day-to-day existence. Luxuries have become basic necessities and every individual is associated with technology in some form or the other. Without modern technology, it seems we have been teleported back to the medieval age. When we see young tech-savvy children with their astonishing skills and keen learning abilities, our own handicap for an easy adaptation of these technologies gets very embarrassing.

FELICITATIONS

NARENDRA MODI INSPIRING LEADER FOR AN ASPIRATIONAL INDIA!

With science and technology inventing innovative, irresistible and user friendly gadgetry every day, it becomes mandatory to scrutinise and review its role in the defence and security sectors of India to deal with unavoidable threats and challenges doctored by the alienated neighbours of our motherland. Their dirty games are a threat to our internal security and need to be challenged and frustrated. China has already equipped its defence forces with latest technologies for Air, Land and Sea warfare and is extensively initiating the use of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics for defence and security. Closer on the western border, Pakistan is trying its best to procure all possible latest gadgets to empower its defence forces also with undisguised help from China. As a part of its national policy of using ‘non-state actors’ as its forward echelon, the Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence is siphoning off these acquired tools to terrorist outfits for creating trouble in India. These disturbing activities instigate an immediate introspective for a major improvement of India’s technical means of defence preparedness as these neighbours get more and more unpredictable. Another very important aspect is the role of Intelligence and surveillance in security preparedness. While challenges and threats on our borders are being countered by our strong and confident defence and paramilitary forces, equally crucial is the requirement to strengthen our intelligence and surveillance for security preparedness. Our policy and decision-makers cannot afford to lose their focus on these vital aspects for a strong defence and security apparatus for India. Hiding our heads in the sand like an ostrich is not going to make the challenges disappear! Artificial intelligence and robotics with a strong reinforcement of intelligence and surveillance need to become the prime focus areas for defence preparedness. The concept of “Future Soldier” promises to contribute effectively like in the US, UK, France, Russia and Israel. Considering the huge population of India, its ratio with police and security forces is depressingly alarming in comparison to the other nations of the world. Moreover, the level of “Intelligence” generated by terrorist groups and Naxalites appears to be much more advanced than what is available to our security and police forces. The voids are scary! This edition focuses on aspects that have been completely neglected by the previous government and I on behalf of Team DSA congratulate the newly formed government which has come to power with a thumping majority. I invoke our new leaders to quickly get a grip on defence and security agendas. I strongly feel that a judicious and pragmatic prioritisation of the nation’s most pressing problems and identifying long-term solutions will lay down the foundation of success for the new government.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Pawan Agrawal

CONGRATULATIONS AND BEST WISHES!

s we step into a new dawn for India, we feel privileged in witnessing a pivotal moment in the nation’s history that has been prophesied to shape India’s destiny. The momentous verdict of India stamps the phenomenal and stupendous victory of the very sagacious, uncompromising and astute leadership of Mr Narendra Damodardas Modi. With the scintillation of his coronation ceremony subsiding over the dusky horizon, the new Prime Minister and his 45 member cabinet pull the trigger for their expedition on one of the most watched government tenures. Expectations soar! India awaits a colossal transformation with bated breath as Indians identify with Mr Modi’s vision for the revival of our economy and find solace in his emphasis on good governance, growth and development. If Mr Modi’s determined evolution is a parameter for reference, we are confident that he has the guts to perform this miracle. But … is India disciplined enough for this transition from paucity to prosperity? For this extraordinary spectacle, India needs to start gearing up and running to match up to Mr Modi’s pace. Only then, can we start dreaming of an India that will manage to retain a secular and democratic way of life, while dealing firmly with external and internal threats. Decades of negligence and indifference have inflicted incalculable damage and weakened the sinews of our defence and security forces. Concurring with renowned think tanks and eminent experts that the country’s defence

preparedness has plummeted to rock bottom, DSA believes that the first priority of Mr Narendra Modi, along with the economy, should be upgrading India’s conventional military capability and homeland security. Only strong and decisive governance can dismantle the hurdles that have been barricading implementation of policies and administrative reforms to develop indigenous research and manufacturing of weapons along with eradicating delays in procuring defence and security equipment and technologies. To meet the current challenges, India finally gets a decisive leader whose objective should be to prevent war by a combination of nuclear and conventional deterrence, deft diplomacy and mutually beneficial economic ties. The new prime minister is committed to ensure a transparent and honest administration. It’s time for leaderships that are truly willing to restore both internal and global confidence while making the mythical “sustainable development” and “supersonic growth” a reality. In Mr Modi’s own words, “A strong government is where the will of the people matters, where the voice of the people is heard and where the dreams of the people are fulfilled.” Strategic vision and steely resolve to get things done should be the beacons to light the path of Mr Modi’s epoch-making journey of taking India to the pinnacle of development and prosperity. Team DSA supports and stands with Mr Modi and his government in the service of the nation.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Contents

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND ROBOTICS IN DEFENCE AND SECURITY

An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Magazine

Vo l u m e 5 I s s u e 9 J u n e 2 0 1 4

A R T I C L E S 6

Narendra Modi At The Helm Of India’s Destiny Vice Adm Arun Kumar Singh PVSM, AVSM, NM (Retd) Myths, Dilemmas And Reality Lt Gen Sudhir Sharma PVSM, AVSM, YSM, VSM (Retd)

The Future Soldier Air Marshal Anil Chopra PVSM, AVSM, VM, VSM (Retd)

Artificial Intelligence For Fast Track Military Training Brig Rahul Bhonsle (Retd)

Artificial Intelligence And Mind-control Devices Team DSA

Taking Man Out Of Harm’s Way Dr Ajey Lele

Why Is Robotics The Next Big Thing Dr Prashant Bhalla

Unmanned Platforms And Underwater Operations Dr Vijay Sakhuja

100 Per Cent FDI In Defence Team DSA

Meaningless Jamborees Maj Gen (Dr) Mrinal Suman AVSM, VSM (Retd)

Pakistan’s Devious Stratagem Pawan Agrawal

Social Acceptance Of Nuclear Power In India Dr Sitakanta Mishra

EU’s Self-image As A Security Actor Kalyani Unkule

Modern Air Warfare Shantanu K Bansal

Israel’s ‘Star Wars’ Technology Should India Consider The System? Debalina Ghoshal

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June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

F E A T U R E S

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW Subhas Goswami IPS Director General, ITBP

16 21

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW 24 Morten Tiller Norwegian National Armaments Director

Sneak Peek Defence and Security Industry Monitor Security Round-up Get Connected

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31 40 63 67

For online edition log on to: www.dsalert.org June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

nation

DAWN OF A NEW ERA?

To meet the current challenges, India appears to have finally got a decisive leader. History will judge how Modi performs, but over a billion Indians are looking to a brighter and safer future. Narendra Modi would be aware that he has only five years to meet the expectations of India, before he faces the elections again in mid 2019. President Obama met most of his election promises and got elected for a second term as US President. Will Prime Minister Narendra Modi do the same? His task is a lot tougher, but he may be India’s man of destiny.

s I pen this article and send it to the Editor on 17 May 2014, I must place on record that I had been impressed by the two election campaigns of President Obama. I always thought that no one could be more articulate than Obama, till I heard Narendra Modi speaking in Hindi, and conducting a blitzkrieg election campaign (437 massive rallies and travelling 300,000 km) which is now being dubbed as “shock and awe”. Modi has shown that a man from a poor family can also aspire to the Indian equivalent of the ‘American dream’, if he is hard-working and visionary. On 16 May 2014, India's 16th general elections gave an astounding result. For the ﬁrst time since 1984, the country would get a stable government. In the 543 seat Lower House (Lok Sabha), where 272 seats is the half-way mark, Modi has single handedly steered his BJP to 282 seats, and the BJP led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) had an impressive tally of 336 seats. As the Congress (which has ruled India for 60 out the last 67 years) came second with only 44 seats, the Lok Sabha, for the ﬁrst time will have no Leader of the opposition, since minimum 55 seats (10 per cent of 543) are needed.

VICE ADMIRAL ARUN KUMAR SINGH, PVSM, AVSM, NM (RETD)

India’s two-month long The writer was trained elections ﬁnally ended on in the former USSR on nuclear submarines and 12 May 2014. Millions of voters missiles. He served (more than the combined as Eastern Fleet populations of USA, Canada, Commander, then as Australia, France, Germany and Director General Indian New Zealand) cast their votes in Coast Guard and later as sweltering summer heat, in the Commander-in-Chief of the Andaman and Nicobar hope that they would transition Command, before from poverty to reasonable retiring in 2007 as prosperity and that India would Commander-in-Chief retain her secular democratic of the Eastern Naval way of life, while dealing ﬁrmly Command. He is an with external and internal threats. internationally respected The people of India have chosen strategist who writes and speaks in India Narendra Modi as the new Indian and abroad, on issues Prime Minister. Narendra Modi, maritime, nuclear who comes from a very humble and strategic. background has transformed the economic landscape of Gujarat state as its Chief Minister. He undoubtedly will have his hands full, trying to meet the rising expectations of the Indian people and in carrying the religious minorities with him.

Hurdles Enroute

Modi would be aware, that while the BJP led NDA has a majority in the 543 seat Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament), it has only 64 members in the 240 seat Rajya Sabha (Upper House of Parliament) and hence he would face considerable difﬁculty in getting the NDA legislative agenda passed through Parliament and his leadership and diplomatic qualities would be really tested. He is also aware that the Indian people want jobs, reduced inﬂation and seven basic human requirements viz food (food is available, but it needs to reach the poor, instead of rotting in sheds), water (eight per cent of the population has no access to safe drinking water), low cost housing, roads, electricity, education and health care (India has recently eradicated polio, but more needs to be done in providing free health care). These are major challenges. India by 2030 needs 19 million low cost dwelling units (at US$ 16,000 each) and hence by 2019, when the next elections are due, six million low cost houses should have been built.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

nation

DAWN OF A NEW ERA?

By 30 June 2014, the new government should form a panel of experts (from the military, diplomats, bureaucrats, scientists, financial world, strategic thinkers etc) to place before the government within four months a report listing out recommendations with regard to India’s national interests, national goals and strategy, higher defence management, homeland security (the American model needs to be emulated), water and energy security, border infrastructure and finally force levels cum technology needed, along with funds availability Electricity And Water

India is the world’s fourth largest electricity consumer. It has an installed (including captive power) capacity of 285,000 MWe electricity, but needs over 450,000 MWe, as over 300 million people are without electricity today – an immediate partial solution is to provide coal and gas needed to activate some dormant power plants which can generate 30,000 MWe. Water for irrigation could soon be the cause of major friction between China, India, Bangladesh and also between India and Pakistan. India urgently needs US$ one trillion for upgrading its basic infrastructure, so that the economy can get a boost and jobs are created. This article deals with a few strategic challenges which the new Indian PM, needs to deal with, along with rapid economic growth, combating terror and building a new India.

Hit The Deck Running

The first need for the new PM will be, to use a naval term, ‘hit the deck running’ ie take decisions from day one in office. He would be aware of India’s lack of strategic vision and of the saying of Frederick the Great of Prussia that “Diplomacy without military power is like a band playing music without instruments”, that is, apart from rapid economic growth, India needs security. There is an urgent need to integrate the military into the higher defence management of the government as is done in 60 other nations, including a great democracy like the USA. Modi needs to move fast, indicate his road map in his forthcoming July 2014 finance budget and ensure a more comprehensive road map in next February 2015 finance budget, of his strategic vision for India’s rightful place in the global community. The next four years, after February 2015, should be spent in fine tuning the grand vision of making India a prosperous, safe, scam free nation, which will play a major stabilising role in the Indo-Pacific Region (IPR), which encompasses the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and the Asia Pacific Region (APR). Also apart from the IPR, India’s national interests also cover the Atlantic Ocean. Hence, sea power (comprising merchant ships for commerce, ports with good hinterland connections by rail, road, airports, fishing fleet, seabed oil and mineral exploration, Navy, Coast Guard, shipbuilding and ship repair yards, space based communications – surveillance and cyber warfare capability etc) will play a paramount role in shaping India’s destiny. As a visionary leader, Modi would undoubtedly be aware of the term “Comprehensive National Power” (CNP) and use India’s CNP, to protect and further India’s national interests.

Indo-US Ties

In 2006, whilst still in the Navy, I attended and spoke at an international seminar in the Middle-East. I still recall the

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

dinner speech by the host Crown Prince, who regaled the audience (politicians, diplomats and military) from over 100 nations when he said “USA, as the world’s greatest democracy, always finds the right answer to problems, after having exhausted all other options”. The Obama adminstration has moved fast to undo the damage caused by two earlier decisions viz denying a US visa to Modi and also Hillary Clinton’s media-reported use of some European NGOs for trying to find non-existing mass graves of the 2002 Gujarat riot victims. President Obama promptly congratulated PM Modi and also invited him to visit Washington. During the last decade, while USA ignored Modi, the Japanese, Chinese and Taiwanese courted him most vigorously, but in my opinion Modi is a pragmatic nationalist who will not let personal issues to cloud his judgement with regard to the benefits of strategic Indo-US ties. As he said during an interview before the election results were out, “In Gujarat the largest business delegations come from USA”. One meets different types of Americans. In my personal experience, I have found the senior officers (serving and retired) of the US Navy and US Coast Guard to be professional and courteous, but I cannot say the same for various American think tanks. In my opinion mutually beneficial Indo-US ties (while India maintains its time tested ties with Russia) would be a stabilising factor in the IPR. However, given the Indian psyche based on 150 years of British colonial rule, future strategic Indo-US ties would need to be different from the type USA has with its other allies. India will never accept foreign military bases on its soil and will not accept intrusive inspections on military equipment purchased from abroad (different conditions may of course apply if India acquires any American military equipment on lease and not outright purchase). Also Indian military units will generally deploy overseas on peacekeeping missions only under the flag of the United Nations.

Economic Growth

In my opinion, the people of India expect Modi to produce an economic miracle in the next five years and the astute politician that he is, Modi will move fast to produce palpable results. Even though media reports recently indicated that as per PPP (Purchasing Power Parity), India has become the third largest economy in the world after USA and China, the fact remains that with a per capita income of US$ 1,500 per year, India is a “rich nation, inhabited by many poor people”, thanks to the numerous scams of the last five years and the estimated US$ 500 billion to 1.5 trillion reportedly stashed away in foreign safe havens. The new government will need to move fast to recover the black money stashed abroad, create 12 million new jobs annually (this will require the economy to grow at 8 per cent, from the present 4.7 per cent, as one per cent GDP rise creates about 1.5 million jobs) and also to attract US$ one trillion Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) badly needed to improve India’s creaking infrastructure and make the country a good place for not only foreign investors and tourists, but also for energy security, based on renewable energy and nuclear power. China (despite the border dispute) has already offered US$ 300 billion for infrastructure, while China’s arch rival and India’s friend, Japan too has similar money available for investment in India. Hence, in my opinion, despite the importance of Washington and Moscow, the first foreign trips by Modi, as PM, maybe to Beijing and Tokyo.

Nuclear Power

After the 2008, Indo-US nuclear deal, India has not signed a single nuclear deal for civil power plants, though it has recently approved setting up of solar and wind power plants. Importing nuclear power plants from Russia (four more to follow Kudankulam 1 and 2) and France (six plants) should be possible despite the Nuclear Liabilities Bill, by simply adding insurance costs to the overall project cost (the Russians are already doing this). The delay in importing 12 nuclear power plants from USA, can only be resolved by Japan (which owns the US Westinghouse company) agreeing to part with nuclear technology. It is here that the new Indian PM needs to move fast to allay Japanese concerns. Russia remains a reliable partner for India with regard to weapons, space ventures and energy security. China, is expected to overtake the US economy in PPP terms by end of 2014. It has also offered India US$ 300 billion (as FDI) for improving its infrastructure (roads, railways, ports, airports, telecom, power generation etc). USA, Japan, Australia and the European Union have all helped China become a great economic power. Now with the dragon ﬂexing its military and economic muscle, its time for these nations to also contribute to India’s economic growth, which will automatically translate to aiding global security. India also needs to have improved relations with its neighbours and other nations who supply our energy needs (oil, gas, uranium, nuclear, solar and wind power plants) and those that are strategically located.

Strategic Defence Review

2014

Ruling Opposition

151 OTHERS

336 NDA

UPA

TOTAL 543 NDA (Ruling) BJP TDP Shiv Sena SAD

TOTAL

282 16 18 4

LJSP RLSP Apna Dal Others

6 3 2 5

336

UPA (Likely Opposition) Congress IUML NCP RJD

TOTAL

44 2 6 4

By 30 June 2014, the new government should Others 151 form a panel of experts (from the military, diplomats, bureaucrats, scientists, financial Research Service) about 2000 tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) world, strategic thinkers etc) to place before the government which can be delegated to battlefield commanders to blunt an within four months a report listing out recommendations attack by technologically more advanced NATO forces. To with regard to India’s national interests, national goals and counter the Russians, the Americans (as per the same Congress strategy, higher defence management (the three year old Research Service paper) have 200 TNWs in Europe. A ‘nuclear Naresh Chandra Committee recommendation about creating crisis’ situation is also possible in the Indo-Pacific Region (IPR) a permanent four star officer as Chairman, Chiefs of Staff where nuclear armed China, North Korea and USA, face each Committee, needs to be implemented forthwith), homeland other, due to well-known regional maritime and territorial security (the American model needs to be emulated), water disputes – the situation would only get worse if nuclear and energy security, border infrastructure and finally force armed Russia, peeved with the American sanctions due to levels cum technology needed, along with funds availability. the Ukraine crisis decides to muddy the waters in the APR. Based on this, the government should, by November Ominously, in May 2014, media reports indicated that Russia 2014, promulgate the necessary orders for immediate followed by USA and China, had carried out “nation wide implementation. nuclear security drills”.

Nuclear Challenges

There are various nuclear “hotspots” in the world, though the western think tanks invariably look at India and Pakistan, specially now that Pakistan is introducing the 60 km range NASR ballistic missiles with a miniaturised plutonium warheads for use as tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs), by the battleﬁeld commander. A far greater worry is the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, where the situation may escalate into an open conﬂict between NATO and Russia. The Russians are reported to have (as per a paper by Amy Woolf of the Congress

In 2010, President Obama initiated the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) which meets every two years and will meet again in Washington in 2016. The primary aim of the NSS is to secure nuclear material so that it does not fall in the hands of terrorists. Perhaps the time has come to increase the scope of the NSS. The 2016 NSS should try to convince all nuclear weapon states to ban TNWs, as these are more likely to cause a nuclear war than a terrorist using a “dirty nuclear bomb” which would cause “more disruption than damage”. India should support any move to ban TNWs.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

nation

DAWN OF A NEW ERA?

Another nuclear challenge is accidents from civil nuclear plants. Since 1952, there have been 28 serious accidents in nuclear power plants in Canada, USA, USSR, western Europe and Japan. The well-known ones are Three Mile Island (USA), Chernobyl (Ukraine) and most recently in 2011 at Fukushima (Japan) where the clean up costs are expected to be US$ 100 billion. Such accidents taking place in crowded Asian cities can wreak havoc. Pakistan is planning to set up two 1000 MWe Chinese reactors of unproven design (the Chinese have offered a US$ six billion grant to sweeten the deal) to be set up in Karachi, which already has a vintage reactor. Eight million Pakistani citizens live within 30 km of the proposed site for these two Chinese reactors, while the entire 20 million population of Karachi will be living within 40 km of these two Chinese reactors. India too is building over 20 home designed and home made power reactors and plans to import dozens more. China is also building numerous power reactors. India s hould propose that the IAEA (which presently issues only guidelines) should seriously consider introducing mandatory safety design, material norms and also mandatory new strict norms for site selection.

India’s Nuclear Doctrine

In my view, the first priority of Modi (along with the economy) should be upgrading India’s conventional military capability and Homeland Security. The new government should also consider setting up a panel of experts to examine India’s No First Use (NFU) nuclear doctrine of 2003 and see if it requires any changes. One school of thought believes that the NFU doctrine should be retained, but the phrase ‘massive retaliation’ needs to be dropped and some ambiguity kept, so as to provide greater options to the government. Another school of thought is that the nuclear doctrine should also serve to deter a massive conventional invasion by China or a nightmare scenario of a simultaneous China-Pakistan conventional invasion. A third belief is that there is no need to change India’s existing NFU doctrine, which also calls for massive retaliation after India or its armed forces come under a nuclear, chemical or biological attack, but India’s new government must send a clear signal to our two nuclear adversaries that they should have no doubt about the massive retaliation clause. The raising of 90,000 additional mountain warfare troops for the China border and meeting requirements of the Indian Air Force need to be speeded up, since our present NFU doctrine will not deter a conventional Chinese threat to grab disputed territory. India must persevere with its home made BMDS (Ballistic Missile Defence System) project and have a nuclear arsenal which can absorb a surprise first nuclear strike from our two nuclear neighbours and still have sufficient weapons (including those based on strategic nuclear submarines) for massive retaliation.

Preventing Accidental Nuclear Launch

As is well known, the Indian nuclear warheads are kept de-mated from their land based launch systems (ie missiles or aircraft) during peace time, This ensures no possibility of an accidental launch (Google search will indicate many near peacetime disasters including one where a B-52 bomber ﬂying

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

over USA, crashed and its two four megaton bombs fell on US soil (North Carolina), but did not explode as the last safety interlock in one of the weapons did not activate. Similarly, a UK Chatham House article of 30 April 2014, in ‘The Guardian’ mentioned that after 1962, both Russia and USA had 13 near ‘nuclear misses’ due to failure of communications (eg a Scandinavian nation had conveyed to Moscow, that a research rocket was to be ﬁred, but Moscow did not convey this message to its radar and missile teams located in northern Russia and they initially mistook the launch for a nuclear attack, but fortunately did not launch Russian nuclear tipped missiles) and malfunction of radars cum satellite based detection equipment (a Soviet missile Commander fortunately did not follow protocol to launch his missiles “on warning”, when he correctly assumed that his radar had malfunctioned when it had shown numerous false American ICBMs heading for USSR). The same article also mentions that USA and Russia have 1300 nuclear warheads ready for launch in 5 to 15 minutes. Hence India should propose that the 2016 NSS (Nuclear Security Summit) in Washington, should consider asking nuclear weapon states to change their alertness posture for land based systems (keep warheads demated from launchers) and also to bring in foolproof protocols in the nuclear doctrine of “launch on warning”, to prevent an erroneous launch of nuclear weapons based on surveillance system malfunction, or a failure of communications.

Maritime Challenges

India, which relies on seaborne commerce for over 90 per cent of its exports-imports and over 70 per cent for its energy imports and has over two million ﬁshermen who rely on the sea for their livelihood, has a vital interest in ensuring that the SLOCs (sea lanes of communications) are safe from any threats in peacetime (pirates, terrorists) and in war time also (from enemy action, or high insurance rates forcing merchant shipping to go to other destinations). As 50 per cent of Indian seaborne trade goes west and 50 per cent east, the safety of SLOCs in the Indian, Paciﬁc and Atlantic oceans are crucial for India’s economy, security and prosperity. Since 2008, India has a warship on anti-piracy patrols off Somalia, while numerous Indian Navy and Coast Guard ships and aircraft are on 24x7 patrols within 400 miles off the Indian coasts on counter maritime terror and anti-piracy patrols. Add to this India’s interests in the South and East China seas, where Indian warships deploy every year for about 60 days, it becomes clear that making India a strong sea power based on indigenous production, should be on top of the priority list of the new Indian PM. Any technology transfer from friendly nations like Russia, USA, Japan, Israel, France, UK, Germany etc should be welcome. While the Indian Coast Guard is growing rapidly post 26/11 with over a hundred ships on order in Indian shipyards, the Indian Navy (which has 39 ships and six conventional submarines on order in Indian shipyards), had a series of accidents in the last year, leading to the resignation on 26 February 2014, of the Navy Chief Admiral DK Joshi who took moral responsibility. In my

opinion, the reasons for these accidents are partly due to using ageing ships – submarines and also because the logistics cum maintenance chain not being able to cope with the almost 100 per cent increase in deployments of naval assets, post 2008 to cater for anti-piracy patrols off Somalia and post 26/11 carrying out prolonged counter maritime terror patrols off our coasts. Clearly, the government needs to provide additional funding to the Navy to induct additional platforms and also to enhance its maintenance capabilities by building more dry docks, ship repair yards and also ensuring timely availability of spare parts.

Chinese Navy Strength

The Chinese Navy (also known as PLAN or Peoples Liberation Army Navy) was founded on April 23, 1949, when nine warships and 17 boats of Kuomintang’s Second Coastal Command defected to the PLAN. From this humble beginning, the PLAN, which comprises 290,000 officers and sailors, has emerged as the world’s third largest navy (in terms of blue water capable combat units) after USA and Russia. In addition, China has the second largest Coast Guard, after USA. China is also the global leader in building merchant ships, fishing vessels and ports. China has realised that sea power, if properly showcased and exploited, gives a nation greater flexibility than even nuclear weapons, in furthering its national interests. Readers would be aware of the regular Chinese muscle flexing in the East and South China Seas and its prolonged deployment of a dozen ships and two aircraft off western Australia, for search of the missing Malaysian airline Flight MH-370 (over a dozen Chinese satellites were also used to try and locate Flight MH-370, thus re-emphasising the importance of space exploitation in the maritime domain). Any change in the status quo in the Asia-Pacific will be detrimental to Indian and global seaborne commerce as China would declare new conditions if it converts the South China Sea into its territorial waters and also manages to breach the first island chain by occupying Taiwan and the Japanese held Senkaku Islands. India should also note with concern the two month deployment (early December 2013 to early February 2014) of a Chinese Shang class SSN (tactical nuclear submarine) in the Indian Ocean and the linking up of this undetected SSN, with the Chinese naval warships on anti-piracy patrols off Somalia. Clearly India needs more than one SSN, if it is to also send SSNs on patrols to the South and East China Seas and simultaneously deter Chinese naval deployments in the IOR. Additional surveillance satellites and more long-range maritime patrol (LRMP) surveillance aircraft are also needed to monitor Chinese activities in the IOR. Real time MDA (Maritime Domain Awareness) of the IPR, based on information sharing between India and friendly IPR maritime powers would be very helpful.

Chinese Maritime Silk Route

In February this year, Beijing surprised India, during bilateral talks, by proposing to include India in its earlier October 2013 proposal to ASEAN. This proposal is a revival of the 15th century “Maritime Silk Route” (MSR), which had involved seven sea expeditions (each with over 300 sailing ships) to the Indian ocean region (IOR), from 1405 to 1433, by legendary Chinese Admiral Zheng-He, who incidentally was accorded a sea burial in 1431, off Calicut (Kerala state, India) after his death in 1431. The MSR, had linked up with the famous land silk route (LSR) by which China carried out trade with Europe. China is now reviving

the ancient LSR and its MSR proposal includes economic benefits to participating nations, the setting up of a “maritime co-operation fund” and more ominously establishing legitimate Chinese logistical and naval facilities (read bases) in the Indian Ocean region, to safeguard China’s SLOCs for its energy imports and commercial exports. On 8 May 2014, China’s state owned Xinhua News Agency gave details (with maps) of both the LSR and the MSR. The proposed LSR will begin in the Xian in central China and then go westwards through Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey and thence to Europe (Bulgaria, Romania, Czech Republic, Germany, Holland and finally Venice in Italy, where it meets up with the MSR). The proposed MSR will start at Guangzhou, go seawards to Haikou (Hainan), Malacca Straits, to Kolkata (India), thence to Mombasa (Kenya), to Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Athens (Greece) and finally Venice where it meets the proposed LSR. India’s participation at Qingdao in the first Chinese International Fleet Review (2009) and the recent April 2014, Western Pacific Naval Symposium followed sea exercises off Qingdao is a sign of its maturity and also indicative of the growing capability of the Indian Navy. Indian warships (which routinely deploy for two months every year to the APR) are slated to participate in a trilateral exercise “Malabar 2014”, along with warships of Japan and the US. This exercise will be held off Okinawa Island (not far from Qingdao), towards the end of 2014. The Malabar series of exercises are held annually between the Navies of USA and India, alternatively in the Pacific and Indian Oceans (in 2008 Japan, Australia and Singapore also joined in). It will send the right signals that India has national interests in the APR also. In addition Coast Guard ships of India exercise separately every year with the Coast Guards of Japan and South Korea. The Indian Navy and Coast Guard also exercise regularly with their counterparts from many other nations.

Conclusion

The new Prime Minister, will no doubt focus on quickly providing a big boost to India's economy, job creation, ensuring energy and national security, but he also needs to understand that no nation can be a great power unless it has at least a two ocean navy (Global super power USA has a three ocean navy). A powerful navy, will give India greater flexibility in protecting her global national interests, while acting as a deterrent to any show of force by unfriendly states. The new mantra should be to maximise mutually beneficial trade with China (and Pakistan, if it ever reciprocates India’s gesture of ‘Most Favoured Nation’ trade status), accept Chinese FDI, move to solve the border problems, but keep our Navy strong and ready, as the hard headed Chinese will respect only a combination of economic power, sea power, along with nuclear deterrence. The aim should be to prevent war by a combination of nuclear and conventional deterrence, deft diplomacy and mutually beneficial economic ties. To meet the current challenges, India appears to have finally got a decisive leader. History will judge how Modi performs, but over a billion Indians are looking to a brighter and safer future. Narendra Modi would be aware that he has only five years to meet the expectations of India, before he faces the elections again in mid 2019. President Obama met most of his election promises and got elected for a second term as US President. Will Prime Minister Narendra Modi do the same? His task is a lot tougher, but he may be India’s man of destiny.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

homeland security

INTERVIEW

THE HIMVEERS

AND NATIONAL SECURITY

r Subhas Goswami IPS is 1977 batch ofﬁcer of the Assam-Meghalaya cadre. Before taking over as Director General of ITBP he was Director of National Police Academy, Hyderabad. He has also served as IGP of CRPF. He has been decorated with the Indian Police Medal for Meritorious Service in 2001 and the President’s Police Medal for Distinguished Service in 2007.

Defence and Security Alert: Indo-Tibetan Border Police was operationalised in 1962 as a small force under the CRPF Act. Over the years ITBP has evolved and grown into a multi-dimensional elite security force. Please share with our readers the highlights of ITBP’s eventful journey to its present preeminence.

Mr Subhas Goswami IPS, Director General ITBP

Director General, ITBP: Indo-Tibetan Border Police was raised on October 24, 1962 in the wake of Chinese aggression for re-organising the frontier intelligence and security set up along the Indo-Tibetan border. Initially, the force was raised under IB as Guerrilla-cum-ﬁghting force. Only four Battalions were sanctioned to begin with. In view of the additional responsibilities and redeﬁned task in 1976, the original role of the Force changed to conventional force on the recommendations of Rustamji Committee. The force was restructured in 1978-1979 by sanctioning 09 service Battalions and 04 specialists Battalions and other complements for Border Guarding, Counter Insurgency and Internal Security duties. The force has gradually grown and now consisting of around 90,000 troops. Presently, ITBP is guarding the India-China Border from Karakoram Pass in Ladakh

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

homeland security

INTERVIEW

to Jechap La in Arunachal Pradesh covering 3,488 km of border. It is a very long and challenging task to guard high altitude and inhospitable border varying an altitude from 9,000 feet to 18,500 feet. Besides border guarding, ITBP is actively involved in internal security duties, VIP protection, Anti-Naxal operations, UN Mission and security of Embassy and Consulates in Afghanistan. DSA: ITBP personnel guard India’s international borders from Karakoram Pass in Ladakh to Jechap La in Arunachal Pradesh in some of the world’s most inhospitable terrains. What kind of professional training and motivation helps and inspires them to give their best in the service of the nation? DG, ITBP: Every ITBP personnel is a trained mountaineer for a defensive battle in high altitude areas. Apart from undergoing strenuous basic training, ITBP personnel undergo periodic refresher courses to sharpen their fighting skills and improve their mental and physical toughness. To keep the troops updated with modern weapons and equipment available in the force, regular classes are conducted in units and forward posts as an on-the-job training. The only one Police training establishment for Mountaineering and Skiing is with ITBP on weapon handling and handling of modern equipment. Most of the forward posts of the force remain cut-off from surface route during winter season due to snow accumulation enroute. The border posts are exposed to high velocity storms, snow blizzards, avalanches and landslides, besides the effect of high altitude and extreme cold, where temperature dips down upto minus 40 degree Celsius. About 2/3 tenure of ITBP personnel is spent in such rigorous areas. To prepare them for that ITBP personnel undergo basic and advance courses on mountaineering, skiing, survival, commando, unarmed combat, counter insurgency and jungle warfare, judo courses, medical first responder and disaster management within the organisation and outside the organisation. In order to boost the morale of troops, the rotation of troops from high altitude to low altitude is done as far as possible. On completion of tenure in extreme hard areas, troops are posted to plain area for rest and recuperation. Besides above, special allowances, medals and rewards are also being given. DSA: India has long and porous borders and is afflicted with militancy and terrorism, infiltration and insurgency, smuggling of arms and fake currency and ITBP has been

entrusted with the onerous responsibility of guarding our northern borders. How well prepared is ITBP to face these challenges and defeat such anti-national activities? DG, ITBP: The responsibility entrusted to ITBP for guarding the India-China border is from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh. Although, the area entrusted is large but the natural barriers limit ingress routes. ITBP has already identified those routes and established Border Out Posts (BOPs) to keep an eye over it. It is to mention here that ITBP force is well trained and fully equipped to take first blend of any misadventure by our adversaries. As a border guarding force that is what is only expected from us. DSA: Border areas are also manned by the army and other paramilitary forces. How do you ensure close coordination, joint exercises and intelligence and resource sharing etc with them for seamless security operations? DG, ITBP: A well prepared functional co-ordination guideline is available at field level. The ITBP officers posted at every level starting from BOPs interact with Army and other forces adjacent to their deployment regularly. Senior officers of ITBP also have regular interaction with officers of Army and other sister organisations. Apart from above, structured Functional co-ordination meetings are held regularly between ITBP and Army. ITBP conducts Long Range and Short Range patrols at its own and Joint Patrols with Army to maintain vigil in border areas. ITBP personnel do participate in tactical exercises with Army for keeping them abreast for the wartime role. DSA: Higher reaches of Himalayas are disaster prone and ITBP is the first responder for such natural calamities. How well equipped and competent is ITBP in disaster management and rescue and relief operations? DG, ITBP: ITBP is the first responder in case of Disaster in Himalayan Region. Accordingly Regional Response Centres (RRCs) have been established in HP, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh for carrying rescue and relief operations. Apart from the RRCs, regular units of ITBP also do immediate disaster response. ITBP has carried out large numbers of rescue and relief operations in Himalayan Region. ITBP has a Centre For Training in Search, Rescue & Disaster Response at Panchkula in Haryana for imparting training to ITBP and other police forces. In last year ITBP has rescued 33,009 pilgrims during flash floods in Uttarakhand. Since 1981, ITBP is providing medical cover and security to the pilgrims during Annual Kailash Mansarovar Yatra. DSA: ITBP personnel have excelled in peacekeeping operations in many parts of the world. How do you select and train your people for such international deployments? For Indian operations, what kind of training and skill upgradation programmes do you run on a regular basis to make ITBP a truly world-class border guarding security force? DG, ITBP: ITBP has also excelled in UN peacekeeping operations. The Force

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

personnel have been deployed for peacekeeping operations in Angola, Namibia, Cambodia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Mozambique, Kosovo, Sudan, Congo etc. One ITBP contingent is presently deployed in DR Congo. Prior to induction in UN missions ITBP personnel undergo rigorous training for physical fitness, crowd control, VIP security, protection of vital installations etc. They are also being sensitised on protection of Human Rights and the fact that they are representing the country and not employed as an individual. Hence their all action should be to project best image of the country. ITBP commandos are also guarding Embassy of India in Afghanistan and Consulates at Mazar-e-Sharif, Kandahar, Herat and Jalalabad. DSA: There have been reports that anti-India Chinese elements in TAR have been pushing vulnerable Tibetans disguised as refugees into Indian territories to indulge in anti-national activities. What mechanism have you devised to put an end to this festering menace? DG, ITBP: The terrain of India-China border is very tough and inhospitable. The passes are covered with snow most of the time, due to which infiltrating anti-social elements by China is very difficult; however, ITBP is taking all precautionary measures to counter such misadventures. These include:  Posting adequate troops in our BOPs and physically guarding border through regular patrol.  Around the clock Observation Posts for surveillance of nearby areas.  Surveillance equipment are also being employed as a force multiplier.  If any unacceptable activities noticed those are brought to the notice of PLA through Flag Meetings.  In case of any intrusion then they are apprehended, interrogated and follow up action taken as per laid down procedure. DSA: ITBP is also majorly involved in the preservation of Himalayan environment and ecology. What are your accomplishments in this area and what are your plans for the future? DG, ITBP: ITBP is in the forefront for preserving Himalyan ecology. ITBP has taken upon itself the task of maintaining the delicate balance of flora and fauna. ITBP ensures that the flora and fauna of the area around BOPs is not disturbed or destroyed. ITBP organises plantation drives in its campus and BOPs as well as nurture them. ITBP also observes World Environment Day, Earth Day and motivate all personnel to preserve ecology and avoid any action which may degrade environment. All units have been instructed to reduce the use of polythene in their campuses. ITBP has also made pioneering efforts in introducing the use of Solar energy in border areas for the purpose of electrification, battery charging and telecommunications. In the year 2012 as part of Golden

Jubilee Celebration ITBP organised Ganga cleaning and environmental awareness programmes by organising a rafting expedition from Gangotri to Kolkata. DSA: Due to the difficult terrain and inhospitable working environment, many personal and professional reasons, there is a lot of stress among the force personnel. What remedial measures is ITBP taking to address and manage this growing affliction? DG, ITBP: It is true that the separation from family, environmental hazards and remoteness cause stress and strain in human body. ITBP is also not immune to it. To minimise stress, our Stress Counsellors are posted up to BOP level. Their job is to advise troops how to cope up with stress. The Stress Management courses are also being run at field level. To keep personnel happy Spiritual Activities, Meditation, Yoga, Sports Activities are also encouraged further to that. ITBP personnel are sent on leave 3 to 4 times in a year for rest and recuperation and meeting their families. Most of the BOPs have been connected with satellite telephones and internet so that personnel can keep in touch with their families. Library with sufficient books is available at all the BOPs and books, periodicals and magazines are also sent to BOPs on monthly basis. DSA: As Head of India’s elite border guarding force, what is your vision for ITBP and what ideas and thoughts would you like to share with the people of India and DSA readers around the world? DG, ITBP: ITBP is an elite force because of its tough training and professionalism. As the Chief of the force I can assure you that ITBP will not leave any stone unturned in guarding the Indo-China border. I know the call is very tall but I am confident on the professional competency of my force. As the leader of the force my endeavour will be to uphold the high standards set by this force and regularly reminding and motivating my officers and personnel to realise their responsibility and the confidence the nation has reposed in them and live up to that expectation.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

military robotics

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

MYTHS, DILEMMAS AND REALITY

LT GEN SUDHIR SHARMA PVSM, AVSM, YSM, VSM (RETD)

‘Moore’s Law’ states that computing power doubles every 18 months.We can visualise the unimaginable computing speed and power available today to harness AI and use it in the field of robotics. The question therefore logically arises have we reached a stage where we can start imagining whether robots powered by AI and enhanced dexterity can replace human beings and by extension, soldiers on the future battlefield?

s more and more robots invade our daily life, one wonders if the days of robotic revolution fuelled by artificial intelligence are well upon us. Some scientists liken the advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics in the field of defence as akin to the revolution in military affairs (RMA) brought about by the advent of gunpowder. Others see it as the routine optimistic hype of the scientist who sees each breakthrough and invention as the ‘Eureka’ moment. The legendary Bill Gates is optimistic when he remarks “As I look at the trends that are now starting to converge, I can envision a future in which robotic devices will become a ubiquitous part of our daily lives ...” PW Singer, a respected American author, in his book Wired For War makes a very persuasive and convincing argument that AI and robotics on the battlefield will revolutionise not only warfare, but mankind itself, opening a Pandora’s box whose effects are still to be fully understood. Others are bit more skeptical and feel that this is more of a fantasy not yet rooted in reality. Notwithstanding the same this is the new frontier not only of technology but of many moral and ethical dogmas of the past. Are we then at a watershed moment of technology and military history?

Early Days

In the 1920 play by Karel Čapek ‘Rossum’s Universal Robots’, the first mention of the concept and the word “robot” is found to be mentioned. Nearly one century later, the evolution of robots has reached a stage where their dexterity and cognitive abilities have acquired levels where they can perform an amazing and wide range of activities. The phrase ‘Artificial Intelligence’ first found mention in an IBM-led discussion in 1956 where ‘John McCarthy’ coined the phrase and along with a group of scientists propounded the early theory of AI. Interestingly such was the force of the argument and picture conjured that

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

it caused a big scare in the job market of USA. His wild predictions ruffled a lot of feathers and people felt scared and threatened that computers would take away their jobs and replace them. IBM which was selling its data processors at that time shut down their AI team and emphatically clarified and stated prophetically and defensively that “computers can only do what they are programmed to do” – this dramatic statement has thereafter stood for nearly 60 years in one basic form or the other; only now it is accepted that it no longer holds good. The second defining milestone in the emergence and understanding of AI happened in 1976. This was when the famed IBM supercomputer (in fact a group of parallel computers) called ‘Deep Blue” took on the world’s most powerful brain, the reigning world chess champion Gary Kasparov. It was inconceivable that a computer could outwit the guile of a seasoned chess grandmaster. As predicted Deep Blue lost the six game series, but not by much. In 1977, a second tournament was held and having built-up its computing power and AI, it beat Gary Kasparov within tournament stipulated time, much to the annoyance and irritation of the Soviets. A rematch vigorously sought by the world champion was denied by the IBM team who had made their point on the world stage. If these time lines are extrapolated with ‘Moore’s Law’ which states that computing power doubles every 18 months, then we can visualise the unimaginable computing speed and power available today to harness AI and use it in the field of robotics. To give an example, today an android based smart phone has many more times computing power than was available to NASA when it launched its space mission. The Deep Blue with its approx 13 Gflops would be like an overloaded bullock cart on the F1 track of today. The question therefore logically arises have we reached a stage where we can start imagining whether robots

Robotics development in land warfare so far has mainly concentrated on creating those robotic tools which can take on heavy duty, dangerous and hazardous missions. The early emphasis was primarily on explosive detection and neutralisation of ordnance. Thus many four wheeled all terrain buggies with cameras and sensors progressed rapidly powered by AI and enhanced dexterity can replace human beings and by extension, soldiers on the future battleﬁeld? This is a very complex question with many inbuilt layers but the best answer could be Yes and No. Yes because there are many repetitive and labour intensive and dangerous functions where they are ideal for transfer to army robots. However their extensive use on the battleﬁeld besides technical limitations poses many ethical, legal and moral problems with no easy answers.

Applications In Defence

To the question whether AI and robotics will play an ever increasing and important role in the multi-dimensional battle space of the future the answer would be an unequivocal and emphatic yes. The network centric and highly ﬂuid and intense nature of warfare of future would demand intelligent computing power of immense magnitude. To aid decision-making in this complex and ambiguous environment, commanders at all levels would need sifted, sorted and analysed intelligence at their call. The problem is not going to be of lack of data points, but an enormous information overload which will clamour for immediate attention and thus by sheer volume, confuse and choke the OODA cycle. It is in this backdrop that one would need machine based AI to aid and support commanders and staff on the battleﬁeld. Robotics development in land warfare so far has mainly concentrated on creating those robotic tools which can take on heavy duty, dangerous and hazardous

missions. The early emphasis was primarily on explosive detection and neutralisation of ordnance. Thus many four wheeled all terrain buggies with cameras and sensors progressed rapidly.

The writer has handled challenging leadership, staff, instructional and diplomatic assignments, including command of the largest operational force in the world. He is currently the Chairman of MitKat Advisory Services, a global provider of integrated security and risk mitigation solutions. He is an acknowledged thought leader and an expert in geopolitical risk management, defence, homeland and corporate security. He is on the board of directors of many reputed Indian and international companies. He advises diplomatic and homeland security (HLS) think tanks and is an author of repute. He is a distinguished and much sought after speaker at many international forums.

The dexterity of these early robots was limited and they required much trained support to manipulate and handle. It is only in past decade that there has been enormous advance in the bipedal intelligent humanoid robots especially designed for land warfare. The lead as always has been taken by the United States Defense Department. This project known as PETMAN (Protection Ensemble Test Mannequin) showcases an advanced robot climbing stairs and doing pushups. The unique feature of this robot is that it has been designed to accurately replicate the height, body shape and size of an average American soldier. Its life like appearance in full camouﬂage dress, equipment and helmet make it look like a real combat soldier.

Combat-ready Robot

The Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) the lead US agency for AI and robotics has made enormous strides in ﬁelding a combat ready robotic soldier with tangible artiﬁcial intelligence. PETMAN development and research is being led by a team of scientists of Boston Dynamics. PETMAN has sensors embedded in its skin that detect any chemical leaking through the skin. The skin also maintains micro-climate inside the clothing by sweating and regulating body temperature. In addition, the robot can balance itself, move about freely and also carry out body / suit stressing calisthenics. The main purpose of developing this robot appears to be for limited use in chemical warfare conditions to perform combat tasks and to mimic the

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

military robotics

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

It would therefore appear that we are reaching a stage wherein one can realistically expect human-sized bipedal combat robots with a modicum of AI to be deployable on the battlefield within the next decade, or latest by 2030. However, it has still to clear many ethical, moral and legal hurdles before a fully autonomous combat ready and weaponised robot is fielded effect of these hazardous chemicals on the skin and suits of soldiers while performing their roles. Another DARPA project that has made rapid advance is in fusing latest AI with dexterous bipedal robots. The thinking process is that rather than moving a mass of information to a powerful inbuilt processor as is the traditional norm, replace this with a series of AI powered nano microprocessors directly slaved to multiple sensors, much like the human brain. National Defense Magazine’s Sandra Erwin said, “What sets this new device apart from any others is that it has nano-scale interconnected wires that perform billions of connections like a human brain and is capable of remembering information … Each connection is a synthetic synapse. A synapse is what allows a neuron to pass a chemical or electric signal to another cell. Because its structure is so complex, hardly any AI projects have been able to replicate it.” It would therefore appear that we are reaching a stage wherein one can realistically expect human-sized bipedal combat robots with a modicum of AI to be deployable on the battleﬁeld within the next decade, or latest by 2030.

However, it has still to clear many ethical, moral and legal hurdles before a fully autonomous combat ready and weaponised robot is ﬁelded. As of now, it would be safe to assume that the DARPA does not have a clear mandate to go ahead in this direction.

Non-autonomous Drones

The applications of robotics in aerospace and underwater are also showing significant progress. The number of drones and their applications are growing rapidly. The number of drones and UAV’s has tripled in the inventory of modern armies over the past five years. Underwater unmanned mini-subs are now making a strong debut. This trend is bound to expand exponentially. However, they would still not be autonomous and will continue to be controlled, deployed and put through their paces by an array of human controllers who dictate most functions albeit aided by sensory data provided by them. There is a school of scientific thought that believes that until and unless we make a strong breakthrough in AI, robotics for defence, would in the near future, will perhaps be always based on weak artificial intelligence.

Strong Artiﬁcial Intelligence

The underlying principle behind research in strong artiﬁcial intelligence is based on the premise that machines (robots) can be made to think, reason and apply their minds to problem solving. That is, they can be made to have cognitive abilities. This is presently in the realm of sci-ﬁ as the complexity of replicating even a fraction of the human brain is a daunting task. It is believed that the most advanced robot in the world which is in Japan has the brain power of a cockroach! Recent advances in nano-technology and neural science show considerable

promise, but a thinking military combat robot in the true sense is still far away.

Weak Artiﬁcial Intelligence

In the weak artiﬁcial intelligence route, scientists accept the limitations and prefer to let the machines do the work which make them look intelligent. Thus, pre-programming it with enough data and options and inbuilt algorithms can help choose the best course under the given settings. Pure mathematical, sans emotion, instinct or gut feel! Like a pre-programmed chess playing computer fed all the world’s chess moves by his master does the requisite task (of playing good chess) and appears intelligent.

Advances In India

India being an IT / ITES / BPO super power, one would expect India to be a leading player in research in AI and robotics. However, lack of adequate funding has hampered any breakthrough research, even though a need for the same has been felt for long by our forces. In fact, all the three Services have been demanding more agile and effective intelligent machines for many defence chores like demining, surveillance, smart tracking and a host of other applications. The lead agency for this in India is the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). The Centre for Artiﬁcial Intelligence and Robotics (CAIR) is an advanced laboratory of the DRDO located at Bengaluru. Initially it was established in 1986 and was primarily responsible for AI and robotics. However in 2000, when C4I and network centric warfare gained prominence, two entities were merged to form a more integrated and one point repository of research related to AI. It has been involved

So would this mean that the 24/7 faceless machines will fight wars on behalf of us in the next century or even earlier? Who will and how will one decide on the rules of engagement (ROE), the very manner of war fighting and what about treaties like the Geneva Convention? These are very challenging and frightening questions as science hurtles headlong into the search for truly intelligent machines in the research and development of high quality secure communication, command and control and intelligent systems. It is working closely with institutions like IISc and various IITs for pooling research tools.

The Ethical Dilemma

There is yet another dimension to combat role of robotics of the future which merits scrutiny. Can robots be indicted for human right violations? What about war crimes and callous collateral damage? Will the advent of more and more unmanned robotic war machines encourage reckless adventurism? Today the human casualties and sufferings are a big moral check on waging / prolonging wars. It is no secret that the rising casualty figures of American and Soviet soldiers in Afghanistan paved the way for an early exit from the war zone. The Vietnam War singed a generation of Americans. So would this mean that the 24/7 faceless machines will fight wars on behalf of us in the next century or even earlier? Who will and how will one decide on the rules of engagement (ROE), the very manner of war fighting and what about treaties like the Geneva Convention? These are very challenging and frightening questions as science hurtles headlong into the search for truly intelligent machines. The advent of the digital age has created a paradigm shift in the way technology can be harnessed to challenge age old beliefs and practices. The ongoing path-breaking rigour in the field of AI and robotics threatens to revolutionise and dramatically alter the defence landscape. The doubling of computing power and nano-technology has opened new and untapped horizons in the digital world, giving rise to those who have it a tremendous edge on the battlegrounds of future – which may well be the last frontier, that is, space itself! There is much potential in mastering and putting to good use AI for the good of mankind. In the near term, weak AI will continue to dominate and progress, with strong AI with cognitive powers, still some decades away.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

homeland security

military robotics

TODAY’S CHANAKYA?

NETWORKED AND INTEGRATED

NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER

he vision of Chanakya comes rushing to the fore because the Defence and Security Alert (DSA) has been created on the expectation that the teachings of India’s greatest strategist will, some day, infuse the nation and help it deal with its many security travails. He is our mascot and inspiration.

AIR MARSHAL ANIL CHOPRA PVSM, AVSM, VM, VSM (RETD)

Ajit Doval joined the Indian Police Service in its Kerala cadre in 1968. He soon shifted to the Intelligence Bureau of the central government answering a personal penchant for working in the murky nether world of spies and undercover agents made famous by the fictional exploits of Agent 007 James Bond in Ian Flemings books. Doval was more in the mould of the schematic role of spies in governance as enunciated in the Arthashastra of Chanakya, a treatise on statecraft, economics and security strategy written in the India as it was between 350 and 283 BC when the Mauryan empire existed in all its splendour and military might. The man behind emperor Chandragupta Maurya then was Chanakya. Doval in his persona carries a touch of steel given the manner in which he has personally conducted some very successful politico / military operations. There was the infiltration into the ranks of the Mizo National Front, a separatist organisation in the north-east led by Laldenga and winning away six of his deputies forcing Laldenga to buy peace from the central government. There is no better example of how to snuff out an externally instigated insurgency than the manner in which the Sikh Khalistan movement was destroyed in two police operations inside the Golden Temple in Amritsar conducted in two parts in 1986 and 1988.During Operation Black Thunder as the police actions were called, Ajit Doval entered the Golden Temple under the guise of a Pakistani agent. He discovered that the holy shrine was packed with pro-Pakistani terrorists and prominent Indian Sikh separatists. In the first strike in April 1986 the 300 NSG Commandos and 700 Border Security Force personnel entered the Temple, using minimum force. They captured 300 Sikh militants in an 8-hour operation. The second strike, two years later in 1988, 41 militants were killed in selective fire by snipers posted around the Temple forcing 200 others to surrender. This proved to be a more politically correct method of handling an insurgency than the Army operation Blue Star in June 1984. For his role Ajit Doval earned the Kirti Chakra, the second highest gallantry award. This was the first time an IPS officer had earned it. Operation Blue Star spread bitterness throughout the country. A small section of the Sikh regiment mutinied and the gruesome denouement was the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi by her Sikh security guards. He has wide knowledge of how nations instigate terrorism in neighbouring countries which is one of the reasons for Indian instability. He is also very aware

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Indian Army plans to modernise its entire 465 infantry and paramilitary battalions by 2020. ‘Futuristic Infantry Soldier As a System (F-INSAS) of Indian Army is meant to equip the Indian infantry soldier with advanced weaponry, networked communications, all-weather personal equipment, enhanced mobility, all this with weight reduced by 50 per cent.

Ajit Doval

The writer is an ex NDA Air Force officer who was a fighter pilot in the IAF. He is a Qualified Flying Instructor and Test Pilot who was among the initial lot to train on Mirage 2000 in France. He commanded a Mirage Squadron, two operational air bases and the IAF’s Flight Test Centre ASTE. He was the Team Leader of MiG 21 Upgrade programme in Russia for over 4 years. He is currently a member of Armed Forces Tribunal. He is also a member of Executive Council of Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

of the reasons for the internal insurgencies of the Maoist / Naxal kind. While he will not be directly involved in countering these eventualities, his job is to strategise how best to counter them and deal with those involved in creating trouble for India. He will have to find ways and means of dealing with Pakistan and China as they go about laying road, rail and oil and gas pipelines over Indian territory in Jammu and Kashmir in a manner that could eventually choke India geo-strategically. He will have to find an answer to the question whether a government that prides itself on its “nationalism” can be a party to the concept that Akhand Bharat can be perpetually divided by the simple expedient of “You keep what you have” in Jammu and Kashmir. He will also have to answer how withdrawing Indian troops from Siachen squares with the concept that the whole of Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India? How will he handle China which is worked up over the activities of the Uighur in Xianjiang and the Tibetans in Tibet just when it is about to launch its programme of expansionism into the South China Sea where India’s friends reside. He has to find an economic basis for rapprochement with the Maoists / Naxalites and find better ways of dealing with their kind of warfare. Ajit Doval has had a long association with DSA. From contributing to the inaugural issue, to helping it grow over the years. Team DSA congratulates him and offers fullest support to his growth as a 21st century Chanakya.

he army soldier of the future is going to look more like a nano-technology based Kevlar robot with super computer capabilities, high motor-assisted agility, lethal fire power, long distance multi-spectrum vision, high NBC protection, terrestrial connectivity, automated data bases to decide friend or foe, thought control, orders through display devices, drugged to keep awake and have reduced fatigue, yet will have a heart that sends red roses on Valentine’s day. We have come a long way since Alexander the Great around 330 BCE had one of the largest standing armies of those times. We all have watched the multi-Oscar winning 1959 American epic film Ben Hur set in ancient Rome. It gave us a firsthand view of the Roman soldiers of that period. In our military academies, we all remember carrying the Field Service Marching Order (FSMO). It was a web based pack containing basic living and survival kit. The FSMOs were of different sizes and weights. Along

with riﬂe the total weight in some combinations could be as high as 32 kg. Today’s dismounted infantry soldier carries a back-breaking load (anything from 45 to 63 kg) and still has insufﬁcient protection.

F-INSAS

High lethality and precision of modern weapons and availability of new technologies have engaged all modern armies to develop future soldier combat uniforms and kits. ‘Futuristic Infantry Soldier As a System (F-INSAS) of Indian Army is meant to equip the Indian infantry soldier with advanced weaponry, networked communications, all-weather personal equipment, enhanced mobility, all this with weight reduced by 50 per cent. The integrated future soldier will be part of the C4I2 (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Information and Intelligence) capable integrated Battleﬁeld Management System. The demonstrator phase is at an advanced stage. Indian Army plans to modernise its entire 465 infantry and paramilitary battalions by 2020. The bulletproof

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

military robotics

NETWORKED AND INTEGRATED

The lightweight clothing will include a bulletproof jacket which will have water protection and be breathable. It will be NBC protective and will carry solar chargers for various electronic devices. It will include oxygen respirator for protection from gas and smoke, flame retardant undergarments, bulletproof waistcoat with ceramic armour plates covering the chest, back and groin and fireproof knee and elbow guards integrated helmet includes a mounted torchlight, thermal and night vision devices, digital direction finder, video camera, NBC sensors and high fidelity audio communications. The visor will act as the head-up display. The lightweight clothing will include a bulletproof jacket which will have water protection and be breathable. It will be NBC protective and will carry solar chargers for various electronic devices. It will include oxygen respirator for protection from gas and smoke, flame retardant undergarments, bulletproof waistcoat with ceramic armour plates covering the chest, back and groin and fireproof knee and elbow guards. The vest will have sensors to monitor soldier’s body parameters and shoes will have mine detection sensors. The Global Positioning System (GPS) based target location would be transmitted to seek supporting fire. The palmtop devise will greatly increase situational awareness and be used for combat communications. Most items are under indigenous development by Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), including some with partnership with private players like Tata Advanced Systems, Rolta and Thales. Many components and weapons will have to be procured from abroad.

Future Technologies

The US Army’s Land Warrior programme has introduced new technologies and equipment into soldier’s kit. 900 Land Warrior ensembles, 300 vehicle-integration kits are deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan. The soldier wears a fighting-load vest for carrying items and interfacing with the sensors and the computer. The load distribution from shoulders to hips can be adjusted on the move. The lighter 2 kg helmet provides ballistic protection. The navigation system comprises a GPS and a pedometer dead reckoning system that tracks the soldier’s position when the GPS is unavailable, eg inside buildings. The power is provided by disposable or rechargeable batteries weighing 1.1 kg installed on the body. The system provides between 8 and 24 operating hours of power. The Windows based computer is also installed on the body. A multi-band radio integrated into the vest allows voice communications. The display system shows videos in visual and infra-red spectrum as seen by the weapon sight. It also shows satellite and topographical maps with friendly positions, updated every 30 seconds. A SIM (subscriber identity module) identifies each soldier and controls access. A multifunction laser measures the azimuth and range and also designates the target. The ground war fighters are connected directly with each other and with vehicle crews without needing to exchange the information only at the leadership level. It has provided

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

greater situational awareness, lethality and survivability to soldiers. Computer aided commands have replaced hand signal and word-of-mouth orders.

Warrior Of Tomorrow

Army’s future soldier will be equipped with super-human technologies and possess super-human capabilities, that would make ‘007 James Bond’ look like a novice. The sensors on his lightweight synthetic body armour will be connected to databases to help him take quick decisions. Cameras on the helmet will compare faces in the crowded place and tell foe-fromfriend. Projection of information will be on the contact lenses instead of visors. Cursors on the visor will be able to aim, cue the weapon and tell when to shoot. Voice commands will perform multiple functions. Weapons could be ordered either to stun or kill. To cater for multi-nation forces, automatic translation will be on call. A lot of information from the soldier’s sensors could be automatically accessed by the others in the operation. Smart drugs will prepare the soldier for increased endurance and stamina, greater physical strength and higher alertness levels. The Exoskeleton, motorised hinged external frame, will wrap around his limbs to support easier motion and greater weight carriage. He will be able to run at record breaking speeds. His physical and mental state will be monitored by sensors to check overload, injury, physiological stress and the same transmitted to commanders and doctors to take appropriate calls. Like the astronauts, he will eat hybrid food supplement tablets. Tablets will regulate the sleep and waking hours like for ﬁghter pilots doing long distance missions. They could be kept awake for days.

Sleep Deprivation

Pentagon is studying proposals for gene modiﬁcation that could trigger cells of the injured soldiers’ body to on-its-own rebuild limbs. Modiﬁed genes will convert fat into energy so as to last few days without food. This will further reduce the weight of the back-pack. A drug was tested on US Army helicopter pilots that enabled them to stay up longer than 40 hours, with their levels of concentration actually improving after nearly two days without rest. DARPA is reportedly experimenting with turning fat into energy and also known to be funding research into contact lens-mounted displays that could focus information from drones and satellites directly into soldiers’ eyeballs and helmets that could enable troops to communicate telepathically. As IEDs continue to be an effective weapon for insurgents, researchers are working on a number of projects to increase soldiers’ awareness of IEDs. Soldiers will have unprecedented capabilities, such as the ability to see through walls thanks to advanced radar scopes. Next-generation helmets will integrate electronics that pick up vibrations from the skull and transmit sound directly into the head instead of using traditional microphones and earpieces. A micro-turbine

Ethical Questions

The emerging shape of the Future Soldier is already making some question, “Like the Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is the soldier going to be replaced by a robot one day?” Removing the human changes the entire concept of war fighting. Can we afford the technological costs? These technologies will maintain US domination in the field for years. While exoskeleton is a no controversy welcome development, the ‘gene’ modification continues to draw opposition. There are others who say that to keep us healthy and increase longevity, medicine has already been fairly intrusive. All these experiments would just improve the efficiency of energy creation by the body. Flexible Displays will soon replace the sleeve / thigh pad and the China-graph pencil combination. To fit the body contours, the display screen would be of easy-to-bend synthetic material other than glass. Soldiers will use this fabric embedded touch screens to give or receive orders. They will be used on vehicle bonnets and on tank side walls. Since batteries are normally one of the heaviest things of the kit, all systems are being designed for very low power consumption. Cost will be kept low to make it affordable for all soldiers.

That day is not far when you will unwrap a display screen to take out your sandwich. That will be real empowering and unburdening of the soldier. The law enforcement officers, intelligence operatives, cyber warriors and development specialists will also use these technologies. NBC protection would be “more realistic” with connection to a low-profile air purifier providing cool air for comfort and visor defogging. The sensors could trigger a response in the uniform to open or close the fibres, depending on temperature or perspiration. Soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq were carrying more than 55 kilograms external weight. The proposed new uniform system would weigh just 22 kilograms. The shell-like body armour will have a gap of 5 cm with the body to reduce impact force transmission. Full body data will be transmitted to the doctor miles away, to diagnose and treat, without even physically seeing the soldier. Future Warrior’s devices and systems will be scaled-down to 100 nanometers or less. A nanometer is a billionth of a meter. When a round is shot into the uniform, it will sense the strike and become rigid. A little while later it will become soft again, thus can absorb unlimited numbers of machine-gun rounds. It could also change its own camouflage pattern. “Nano muscle fibres” can actually simulate muscles, giving soldiers more strength according to Dr De Gay, an equipment specialist. The uniform from the waist down will have a robotic-poweredsystemthatisconnecteddirectlytothesoldier. This system could use pistons to actually replicate the lower body, giving the soldier over 300 per cent greater lifting and load-carriage capability, he said. Lightweight silicon solar power cells laminated onto fabrics for making tents will recharge batteries. Russia, Germany, Britain, Spain, Sweden and France also have such programmes. The ultimate desired outcome is an ‘energy efficient soldier’. The Indian soldier has the most hostile environment and operates in the most volatile region. We are happy that Indian Army is targeting similar technologies and hope one day, the Indian soldier will be equipped with the best.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

international relations

INTERVIEW

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

WITH MR MORTEN TILLER Norwegian National Armaments Director

r Morten Tiller holds a dual position in the Norwegian Ministry of Defence: Since 2000 he has served as Deputy Secretary General in the ministry and in 2008 he also assumed the role as National Armaments Director. As Deputy Secretary General, he supports the Secretary General in the overall running and coordination of the Ministry as well as providing advice to the Minister of Defence.

Norway in the Conference of National Armaments Directors (CNAD), which is the senior NATO committee responsible for promoting the cooperation between member countries in the armaments ﬁeld.

During his professional career, he has held a number of other key positions in the Ministry of Defence, through which he has gained broad experience within areas ranging from defence planning and budgeting to defence materiel, acquisition and investment.

Morten Tiller: Norway’s defence structure is based on a modernised Total Defence Concept which encompasses mutual support and cooperation between the Armed Forces and civilian authorities in situations ranging from peace, crisis, armed conﬂict and war.

Defence and Security Alert: You have been National Armaments Director, Norway since 2008. Please share with DSA readers around the world the scope and signiﬁcance of your role in the defence and security establishment of Norway. Morten Tiller: Let me ﬁrst underline that I have a double role in the Norwegian Ministry of Defence, being both the Deputy Secretary General and the National Armaments Director (NAD). In this context I will elaborate on my role as the NAD in the Norwegian Ministry of Defence. My responsibility here covers the overall coordination of the Ministry’s activities where defence procurement is concerned. I also have a responsibility for the Ministry’s representation in national and international forums concerned with armaments cooperation and to be the contact point for the defence industry, both national and international. Together with my Deputy National Armaments Director, I have the responsibility for our bilateral so-called Joint Committee Meetings which is established with a number of countries, at present mostly NATO countries, however, also with countries faraway such as South Korea and Australia. Furthermore, I represent Norway in the Nordic NAD meetings and in the European Defence Agency (EDA) meetings. Lastly, I represent

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

DSA: The Norwegian military expenditure is the highest per capita in Europe. Can you please encapsulate for us the background, evolution and the present structure of the Norwegian Armed Forces?

The overall peacetime strength of Norway’s Armed Forces is planned to be approximately 24,000 personnel in 2016. In addition, the number of trained reserves in the Home Guard will remain at approximately 45,000. Norway’s Armed Forces are structured into three armed services (Army, Navy, Air Force), the Home Guard, the Cyber Defence and Special Forces. The Army’s main capability is one mechanised infantry brigade with tactical support and logistics elements. Furthermore, the Army force structure consists of His Majesty the King’s Guard (one specialised infantry battalion) and one Border Guard battalion. The Navy operates surface vessels, submarines and various ashore combat capabilities. In addition the Navy operates the Norwegian Coast Guard, whose main task is to exercise Norwegian sovereignty and jurisdiction. The Air Force operates combat, transport, electronic warfare and maritime patrol aircraft and helicopters, including a number of helicopters supporting the Coast Guard and the Ministry of Justice (Search and Rescue). The main tasks of the Home Guard are to secure infrastructure of importance to the Total Defence,

Mr Morten Tiller

international relations

INTERVIEW Another company, Norsafe, a world leading manufacturer of life-saving appliances, has been doing business in the civilian market in India for nearly two decades. Their experiences are that venturing into the Indian military market is a different ballgame where this company is a relatively new player. The naval shipyard Umoe Mandal is offering technology transfer opportunities for their highly advanced naval platforms such as minesweepers, minehunters and the impressive Skjold class corvettes, all built in composite materials and based on the SES hull concept (air cushion). DSA: Many representatives from the Norwegian Defence and Security Industries Association, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) and the Norwegian Defence Logistics Organisation have been visiting India to strengthen bilateral cooperation. What feedback do you have from these visits?

Norway Umoe 1 carry out surveillance of designated areas and support operations by the services. It is also tasked to assist civilian authorities in managing and alleviating the consequences of civil emergencies. The latest Long-term Defence Plan was approved in Parliament in June 2012. This plan builds on the significant improvements made over the course of the previous years while ensuring that the Norwegian Armed Forces remain capable of meeting both current and future operational requirements. This is reflected by a temporary strengthening of the defence budget dedicated to the purchase of Norway’s new fleet of F-35 combat aircraft. In addition, resources that will be freed up from NATO’s gradual draw-down in Afghanistan from 2014 will be reallocated internally in the defence sector, primarily to cover the strengthening of the Army and the Home Guard. DSA: How do you compare the salient features of Norwegian and Indian defence budgets ? Can our friendly countries learn any lessons from each other? Morten Tiller: The governments of both India and Norway have for a long time given priority to building a strong national defence through modernisation and procuring new defence materiel. In Norway there has been quite a strong consensus on our defence and security policy over the spectrum of political parties, a consensus dating back to the early years of the post WWII period. This is still Norway’s fortunate position. I understand that the Indian policy also has been quite stable in this context. Traditionally, the Norwegian defence industry has been quite small, however, there has been a healthy increase in our defence exports in recent years, specialising in some key areas also deemed important for the Norwegian Armed Forces. These areas include materiel technology, ammunition and explosives, remote weapon station technology, missile technology, subsea technology and communication technology.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

In recent years we have also invested quite much to achieve a network centric defence, linking the various military capabilities together to establish an efficient military power. We have deemed this to be very important since we have reduced the number of troops and manpower significantly during the last two-three decades. This policy has been based on the fact of the steadily growing cost of new defence materiel and the need to modernise our inventory both in the Army, Air Force and Navy. The Norwegian defence policy has been worked out in close cooperation with our NATO allies, since the backbone of the defence of Norway is the NATO alliance. A Norwegian comparison with Indian policy and Indian defence realities is therefore not so easy to sketch. However, there is one important factor for the relative success of the Norwegian defence exporters: Their best selling products have been developed through an efficient cooperation between our military forces, the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (the FFI) and the Ministry of Defence. Experiences gained by our military forces have, through public funding and research, developed and improved key defence materiel in our military inventory. I would think this approach could be valuable also for India, in case it is not applied. On the other hand, I am quite certain that Norwegian defence industry will benefit from the growing interaction and cooperation with the huge defence industrial base you have in India. DSA: India is on a whopping modernisation and induction drive by the Indian defence and security forces and Norwegian arms industry has also increasingly turned towards international markets. What kind of business equations or joint ventures have been established or are in the pipeline between our countries? Morten Tiller: All successful Norwegian defence equipment programmes during the last 30 years, are the outcome of a close cooperation between the user community of the Norwegian armed forces, the Norwegian Defence Research

Establishment and the Norwegian defence industry, in close collaboration with international industry partners. The official visit of Deputy Minister for Defence of Norway, Mr Øistein Bø, to New Delhi in December 2013 and the accompanying defence industry delegation with representatives from 9 Norwegian defence companies, was very successful. The defence industry seminar that was organised by the Norwegian Defence and Security Industries Association (FSi) together with New Delhi partners, as an integral part of the official visit, provided a great opportunity for Norwegian and Indian defence companies to engage in discussions on opportunities for cooperation. As a follow-up to the event in December 2013, a Norwegian pavilion was for the first time organised by FSi at the DEFEXPO exhibition in February 2014 and the Norwegian Ministry of Defence sent a high-level official delegation, also for the first time, to the exhibition. In total 6 Norwegian companies participated to DEFEXPO 2014. Most of these companies have been working in the Indian market for several years and are already engaging with Indian partners. Our leading defence company, Kongsberg, teamed up with TATA Motors before DEFEXPO and displayed their 30 mm turret solution with a Commanders Independent Weapon Station on top, each having a Javelin ATM mounted. The whole display was mounted on a new “WhaP” (Wheeled Armoured Platform) owned by VRDE and awarded to TATA Motors as partner for further technical development and manufacturing. My understanding is that Kongsberg would like to see India as a base for a broad expansion on the Asian continent. Our second biggest defence company, Nammo, a leading producer of high-end ammunition, explosives and rocket motors also see many potential areas of cooperation with Indian industry. However, they point out that such cooperation is not established overnight. There is a need to be patient and spend time together to increase understanding and reduce the cultural barriers.

Morten Tiller: Norwegian industry is in the early stages of entering the Indian defence market. The industry sees great opportunities, but they are also sensitive to the fact that success is dependent upon working closely with Indian partners and that it will take time to establish a solid footprint in India. The Norwegian companies are entering the Indian market with a strategic perspective, meaning that they are committed to long-term cooperation and prepared to invest time and efforts in developing long-lasting relationships with Indian industry and customers. Norwegian defence companies are committed to international cooperation and enjoy a wide range of strategic partnerships with industrial partners throughout Europe, in North America and Australia and in many countries in Asia, South America and the Middle-East. The Norwegian companies are pleased with the way they have been welcomed by the Indian defence industrial community and the Indian customers. Relations are being developed further every day and companies report that their endeavours are paying off. It has also been very interesting and inspiring to learn more about India’s ambitions related to defence procurement and development. Especially to see the way India put emphasis in the use of new technology and how strategically important defence research and development is considered, not only in developing the armed forces but also the civilian sector. The visit to the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) was one of many highlights and the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI) and DRDO are now in the process of signing a Statement of Intent (SOI). DSA: As a part of ongoing military diplomacy, the Indian Armed Forces have planned as many as 25 combat exercises, professional exchanges and training deployments with different countries this year. Any Indo-Norwegian joint exercises also being planned in the near future? Morten Tiller: Norwegian ofﬁcers have participated in Indian training courses and we actively look for ways to invite Indian military personnel to Norwegian military training activities. During the December 2013 visit to India by Mr Øistein Bø, it was also agreed to actively explore scope for cooperation between our two nations in the realm of maritime operations.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

military robotics

VIRTUAL REALITY is most important for there are no second chances in battle. It is believed for instance that a ﬁghter pilot sitting in the cockpit of an Su 30 MKI or Mirage 2000K, ﬂying an over 100 million dollar machine who has gone through VR based simulation would be able to meet high intensity combat situations with ease.

BRIG RAHUL BHONSLE

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

capabilities can run complex 3-D VR simulations in the ﬁeld using a laptop connected to the Internet or through tablets. While using AI, Intelligent Agents or self-adapting software can denote the manner in which a particular function is to be carried out.

Advances in digitisation, communications, 3D multimedia enables creating virtual environment which can actually represent in many ways the real world, with sight, sound and even tactile responses possible. For the military which is constantly looking for techniques to replicate warfare in training, virtual classrooms achieved by integration of AI, simulation and VR are proving to be a boon.

Simulation requires a multidisciplinary approach which has received impetus through computing and combines software with systems engineering to create simulators that can replicate functions required to be carried out in a real time combat environment. VR is next generation simulation that creates near real time combat situations. For the military which is constantly looking for techniques to replicate warfare in training, virtual classrooms achieved by integration of AI, simulation and VR are proving to be a boon.

FOR FAST TRACK MILITARY TRAINING

ecent developments in Artiﬁcial Intelligence (AI) and virtual reality (VR) have the potential for revolutionising warfare and more particularly training through impetus to simulation. AI is a goal based knowledge building process which can add value to simulation. Experts have called fusion of modelling and simulation with AI as, “cognizant simulation,” which also enhances perception through virtual reality (VR). AI thus provides substantial advantages to creating virtual reality. This will provide for modelling that is more realistic, based on the large knowledge base with self-renewing neural networks within the system generating multiple options which will enhance cognizance. Big data analytics and cloud computing add to the potential that can be achieved in this domain that has important application in military training. This article proposes to discuss how AI can contribute to fast tracking military training.

Potential Of Technology

To understand signiﬁcance of AI and VR to military

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

training there is a need to dissect various facets of technologies involved for the lay reader. AI is a ﬁeld of computer science which contributes to construction of systems that will closely replicate cognitive capability of human beings. Expanding potential of AI is seen in gaming where computers have been devised which can beat humans as is seen in Chess where systems are beating even Chessmasters and Grandmasters. This involves weaving a complex system of algorithms which can replicate human behaviour with advanced problem solving skills. Advances in digitisation, communications, 3D multimedia enables creating virtual environment which can actually represent in many ways the real world, with sight, sound and even tactile responses possible. Large processing power of computers, high image resolution and communication bandwidth is facilitating virtual reality. Gaming is the closest to virtual reality and simulation is the lower end of this environment where only a portion of reality is being depicted. Computer networking

AI And VR Facilitate Training

Military training is essentially a process of cognitive learning. It involves acquisition of knowledge and skill by mental or cognitive processes by manipulating information in the mind of the trainee. Cognitive processes involved in training include creating mental representations of physical objects and events and other forms of information processing. A computer-simulated environment can project the real as well as imaginary worlds while virtual reality will add to the realism experienced in simulation. Realism in military training

Virtual environments are ideal for the military to facilitate accurate simulation of real events in a safe, controlled environment. Moreover each trainee can be provided focused training based on the lessons that are learnt and which can be easily recorded for understanding and assimilation

The words of Sgt Sinque Swales, (RETD) US Army in a combat situation in The writer is Director Mosul in Iraq on 14 February 2006 Security Risks Asia, an best explain the advantages thus, Asian risk and knowledge “It felt like I was in a big video management consultancy game. It didn’t even faze me, based in New Delhi shooting back. It was just natural and specialises in risk management and instinct. Boom! Boom! Boom! future warfare. Boom! The insurgents were ﬁring from the other side of the bridge . . . We called in a helicopter for an airstrike. I couldn’t believe I was seeing this. It was like ‘Halo.’ It didn’t even seem real, but it was real.” For Sgt Swales having gone through an intense course of VR based simulation, battling insurgents seemed to be similar to that experienced in the classroom; such is the realism that can be achieved.

Combined Realism

A combination of AI and VR can provide visual, sound, tactile information from one and more locations simultaneously by using simple input devices thereby creating a life like experience. This facilitates, manipulation of the environment as required by the user thereby providing an exposure to varied scenarios simultaneously from a single platform. This can create exponential effect which can best be described as Simulation2 or working of simulators in a simulated real environment. While simulators have been used for training over the ages from simple arrangements as the Raikes Ranges for mortar training, virtual environments are ideal for the military to facilitate accurate simulation of real events in a safe, controlled environment. Moreover each trainee can be provided focused training based on the lessons that are learnt and which can be easily recorded for understanding and assimilation. The main advantages envisaged through combination of AI and VR in simulation for training therefore include cognitive adaptability, scalability, repetitive training and economy of time and effort. This will overcome increased restriction in training areas particularly for live ﬁring exercises and can combine large number of people at different locations to visualise the same battleﬁeld environment. This also facilitates peer to peer adaptive learning through web based virtual processes.

VR Based Simulation For Training

Simulation can be employed in training for varied purposes. Augmented reality would result in expanding spectrum of training from the individual / squad to large number of troops operating in diverse environments

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

military robotics

sneak peek

VIRTUAL REALITY

The recent outrage in Kashmir over notification of the Tosha Maidan field firing ranges is a reminder to armed forces of the squeeze on training areas. This situation is not unique to Kashmir but is obtained in many parts of the country as civil society and environmental lobbies are putting pressure on the Services to surrender land used for field firing and battle inoculation which is the most realistic form of training

inputs and are seeing the same picture on their screens while their reactions can be recorded and fed to all those linked to the network with ease.

Fast Track Training

Most importantly the advantage provided by AI based simulation is in terms of fast track training in a highly ﬂexible and economical manner. VR provides a near real time environment thus facilitating augmented adaptation. This facilitates absorption of multi-sensory inputs based on images from areas where a force is likely to be deployed thus it enhances cognition and also enhances realism. While it obviously cannot create the actual training environment it does provide the user a near real time experience as was related by Sgt Swales in the incident from Iraq quoted above.

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Announces July 2014 Issue on

Challenges For Virtual Reality

at the same time. For example India has a very diverse terrain environment ranging from the extreme high altitude in Siachen to hot deserts of Rajasthan and marshes in Kutch on one hand to the humid jungles of Nagaland and Manipur. A basic simulation exercise can be created by using software that has been manipulated for adaptive learning based on inputs provided in terms of altitude, temperature, humidity, terrain configuration and so on. Thus a simulator that has been designed for training individuals in the desert to carry out a patrol as part of a squad can be easily adapted to one in Arunachal Pradesh where the terrain and environment is diametrically opposite to that in Rajasthan. Similarly a fighter or helicopter pilot can be trained to operate in these varied environments by manipulating the same through inputs that are generated by AI and depicted on VR so that he can be trained in near realistic conditions. Sub Unit and Unit Training can also be undertaken by devising tactical battlefield exercises in a simulated environment where large number of variables can be factored in. Expanding this to formation level war games, operational alerts, theatre level simulation exercises can be carried out in multiple domains, land, sea, aerospace and cyber. These can be from varied locations across a theatre where all participants are fed the same

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

VR cannot be a panacea for all training needs even if this is combined with AI. Commanders and training leaders should therefore understand the limitations. The degree of reality which can be simulated will be based on expertise that is available both on the tactical and the technical side as simulating realistic environment requires high degree of proficiency and experience. Constructing reality would therefore be important as skewed picture building will result in imparting wrong training and deflect cognition. At the same time while legacy data has been created by American forces operating in Iraq and Vietnam based on comparison of training in a VR environment and operational performance, similar knowledge base will have to be built-up in India once such systems are introduced. The effectiveness of virtual training will therefore be difficult to assess till then. Similarly how far this will give confidence to soldiers of facing the real enemy will remain a dilemma. Thus ultimately balancing virtual and field practice may be necessary.

GLOBAL JIHAD ACTIVE ROLE OF WOMEN IN TERRORISM

Conclusion

The recent outrage in Kashmir over notification of the Tosha Maidan field firing ranges is a reminder to armed forces of the squeeze in training areas that would be available in the future. This situation is not unique to Kashmir but is obtained in many parts of the country as civil society and environmental lobbies are putting pressure on the Services to surrender land used for field firing and battle inoculation which is the most realistic form of training. VR based training as an alternative is therefore inevitable. AI provides an advantage and given Indian expertise in software development the earlier the VR based simulation is accepted as a tool for realistic training the better it would be for the armed forces. The commander will however have to ensure that balance between realistic and virtual training is carried out to maintain the critical edge in war.

FINANCIAL TERRORISM A SLOW POISON For subscription write to: subscription@dsalert.org online@dsalert.org Or call: +91-11-23243999, 23287999, 9958382999

military robotics

NEW WEAPONS

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

AND MIND-CONTROL DEVICES

Modern computing techniques and applications influence many areas of everyday human life and human endeavour on increasingly more complex, more sophisticated and intellectually increasingly challenging levels. Artificial intelligence has been defined as "the study and design of intelligent agents" wherein the intelligent system is one that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximise its chances of success.

hen Isaac Asimov wrote his juvenile science fiction novels of voyages to the moon, mars and outer space decades back, they were fascination indeed but no one ever thought these would come true. But then what about computers where the original estimates were that about two dozen would meet global requirements. Of course the first computers were the size of a room and mechanical analog computers were used even in World War I for specialised military applications albeit the first computer devices were actually conceived in the 19th century but emerged in the modern form in 1940s. But getting back to Isaac Asimov, many may not know that he also defined the ‘Three Laws of Robotics’ albeit for purposes of science fiction: first, a robot must not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm; second, a robot must obey the orders given to it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law; and third, a robot may not injure its own kind and defend its own kind unless it is interfering with the First or Second Law.

Asimov And After

Much water has flowed under the bridge since Asimov wrote the above laws. Over the years, Asimov and other writers modified these laws for purposes of science. Asimov himself made slight modifications and added a Fourth Law where in later fiction where robots had taken responsibility for government of whole planets and human civilisations; a robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm. But science fiction apart robots are a reality

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

today, performing duties from providing ease and comfort of human beings to military applications for defence and attack. While on one hand prohibitive costs in terms of human lives and ﬁnancial costs have forced powerful nations replace ‘boots on ground’ with ‘proxy boots on ground’, simultaneously robot armies are in the making. If ﬁction both in text and movies are future pointers, then enough material is available, including through Hollywood and Bollywood movies, as warning of consequences of robots going rogue. Then there is the research being undertaken into turning human beings into robots, or rather zombies doing the bidding of the attacker.

Rogue Robots

A defining feature of our time is the continuous advances in computing. Modern computing techniques and applications influence many areas of everyday human life and human endeavour on increasingly more complex, more sophisticated and intellectually increasingly challenging levels. Artificial intelligence has been defined as “the study and design of intelligent agents” wherein the intelligent system is one that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximise its chances of success. The goals of artificial intelligence encompass reasoning, knowledge, planning, learning, communication or language processing and finally general intelligence that can actually substitute the human brain. At the same time, many thinkers have speculated about the future of artificial intelligence technology and society. The existence of an artificial intelligence that rivals or exceeds human intelligence raises difficult ethical issues and the potential power of the technology inspires both hopes and fears.

There is speculation that artiﬁcial intelligence applications would replace many jobs. Scientists have also warned that humans should not assume machines or robots would treat us favourably, because there is no reason to believe that they would be sympathetic to human system of morality, which has evolved along with particular human biology, something that artiﬁcial intelligence will not imbue. Sounds scary but could be the reality leading to robots going rogue.

Threat Posed By Automation

While robots going rogue are yet to transcend from fiction to reality, already fears have been expressed in the US that advances in artificial intelligence could lead to mass unemployment with half of US jobs automated within the next decade plus with Google purchasing the London based start-up DeepMind for £ 400 million dedicated to developing this technology. Dr Stuart Armstrong from the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford warns of the risk that computers could take over human jobs at a faster rate than new jobs could be generated, especially in the fields of logistics, administration, insurance underwriting, industry, manufacturing etc. While Google has created an ethics board to look at how to deploy artificial intelligence safely and reduce such risks, the effect would be felt worldwide, what with introduction of Google Glass that allows users to perform searches and ask for help in natural language. Interestingly, DeepMind has been operating largely unnoticed by the wider UK technology scene, although its advances in artificial intelligence have obviously been of interest to the experts – founded in just 2012, DeepMind is Google’s largest European acquisition to date. Regardless of how DeepMind’s expertise will be used, Google’s purchase of the company underscores increasing fears over the impact of technology on employment.

Mind-control Devices

Two years back, a report in UK’s Mail Online quoting Anatoliy Serdyukov, Russian Defence Minister, revealed that Russian arms procurement programme 2011-2020 would encompass introduction of super weaponry including weapon development based on new physics principles; Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs), geophysical weapons, wave-energy weapons, genetic weapons, psychotropic / psychophysical weapons and the like. The ‘Zombie Gun’ based on psychotropic principle of ‘mind control’ evoked most frenzy. Others quoted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans to use the ‘Zombie Gun’ for achieving political and strategic goals (for use both against enemies and dissidents), dubbing this development strange, alarming and morbidly intriguing. The insidious design of the Zombie Gun aims to attack the brain cells and central nervous system to either make the recipient perform according to the attackers will or alternatively turn the victim into a senseless moving object, perhaps behaving like a mad animal. With such a weapon, it would be possible to transmit suggestions and a command directly into the victim’s thought process. These guns will use electromagnetic radiation like that found in microwave ovens. Putin reportedly said that such high-tech weapons systems will be comparable in effect to nuclear weapons, but will be more acceptable in terms of political and military ideology. While the western media has been agog with the scare of a weapon like ‘zombie gun’, it can be safely assumed that

similar weapons would be planned to be productionised at least in the US and China and may be some other countries, if not already part of their offensive inventory – ‘cognitive weapons’ in the US? Research into electromagnetic weapons has actually been secretly on in the US and Russia since the 1950’s. Two years back western media had announced Russia possessed plasma weapons. It is unthinkable that US was not running parallel in the race, if not ahead. Moreover, the overall concept of attacking the nervous system or attacking internal organs is hardly new and has been worked upon continuously. After all was it not what the nerve gases did decades back? Nerve gases have been used in conﬂict situations without compunction in the past. Incidents have also been hinted in media of low dose microwave weapons having been used for incapacitating recipients temporarily. A high dose microwave weapon on the other hand can kill the eyesight or stop the heart of the victim.

Counter-measures

Interestingly, some clubs in the US are already offering Zombie Survival Courses where instructors teach how to cope with zombie attacks. Such courses are designed to teach participants real-world survival techniques necessary to survive a zombie apocalypse. This includes choosing and setting up survival gear, first aid, equipment, firearms selection and group organisation for defence. Going a step further, Kansas has been witness to the first ever Zombie-Proof Condos that have all been sold out like hot cakes at US$ 2 million per floor condo suit package. Consequences of application of psychotropic / psychophysical weapons can range from mass psychological diseases with both lethal and incapacitating outcomes, creation of an obedient mass of humanity through latent violent manipulation of behaviour and consciousness and even mass ecological accident because of irreversible genetic mutations if infringement at gene level is resorted to.

Indian Dilemma

Should India take note? It must, considering the Chinese (and its protégé Pakistan’s) penchant for the asymmetric. Research must go into both defence and offensive defence through requisite counters. In the ﬁeld of robotics, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh while inaugurating a new building of DRDO in 2006 had announced that India will be pursuing technologies for developing a robotic army. The impetus obviously was the realisation that trans-national actors and unconventional forces pose a growing threat when compared to the risk of a traditional inter-state conﬂict, plus robotic plans announced by other nations like the Killbots Army planned by the Republic of Korea.

Types of ‘Bots’

Military robots are autonomous or remote-controlled devices designed for military applications, different from robots used for industrial production in that they do not produce things, but interact in warfare like control of missiles and vehicles in order to have unmanned devices that are either tele-operated or that ﬁnd their way, automatically guided by laser beams or GPS satellites. World War II actually ﬁrst saw the military application of robots in the form of the use of the Goliath mobile

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

military robotics

landmine by German forces marking a turning point in the history of military robots, as did the Soviet Teletanks that were wireless remotely controlled unmanned tanks. Later the MQ-1 Predator drone enabled the CIA to collect intelligence. Existing military robots include guided missiles, military spacecraft, UAVs, unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), smart ammunition, surveillance and navigation(GPS)satellitesetc.TheICBMitselfisaverylargetype of rocket with guidance systems. Then missiles are of multiple types and are deployed depending on the type of targets. Armed UAVs are in prolific use. Militaries will continue developing robots for their own purposes. Technological advances enable the developers to build new systems for more tasks. UGVs will continue to be progressed. In the US, an unmanned converted Humvee has been driven around at a speed of 56 kmph without deviating from its planned route. Such capability would have multiple applications, saving human costs and lives. Obviously such future platforms would be fitted with cameras and weapons as well. Such smaller robots of the size of a golf cart (Gladiator – carrying a machine gun, rockets and non-lethal weapons) have already been developed that can be controlled by PlayStation video game controller or software plug-ins, allowing semi-automatic and fully autonomous modes. Then there is the medial robot ‘Bloodhound’ (improved version of the ‘packbot’) which can locate wounded soldiers, checking vital functions and administer morphine. US has already produced a working automated sentry gun and is currently developing it further for commercial and military use. The US Army has also been developing an Autonomous Rotorcraft Sniper System consisting of a remotely operated sniper rifle attached to an unmanned autonomous helicopter intended for use in urban combat or other missions requiring deployment of snipers. In all probability this system is already deployed. Similar to ground robots, USVs and UAVs are also being researched further incorporating weapons and surveillance devices.

Chinese ‘Wolfpack’ Tactics

The Chinese military envisions its drone swarms scouting battlefields, guiding missile strikes and overwhelming the enemy defences through sheer numbers. China’s military-industrial complex has established vide array of indigenous drones to accomplish these goals. One aim of such large drone fleets would be to expand China’s military reach into the Pacific and swarming US carrier groups in the event of conflict. China could possibly be having the largest drone fleets after the US. As per 2012 figures reported in The Guardian quoting the International Institute of Strategic Studies, the US was then operating 6,709 drones compared to 280 by China PLA but that difference in numbers could have narrowed considering the modernisation pace of the PLA and her feverish pitch to bridge asymmetry vis-à-vis the US. Interestingly, the Chinese Wing Loong drone reportedly costs around US$ 1 million, compared to the US Reaper drone that is in the US$ 30 million range. Admittedly, technologies and capabilities may vary but the point to note is that you can perhaps buy 25-30 Wing Loong drones for the price of one Reaper but more significantly, the Wing Loong has the same endurance as the Reaper (20 hours), has a range of 4,000 km and packs four hard points for mounting variety of lasers, precision guided bombs.

military robotics

NEW WEAPONS

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

China already reportedly has 24x7 satellite surveillance along the Sino-Indian border. Additionally, India needs to also take into consideration the drone swarms of PLA in the event of conflict. It should also be noted that China successfully flight tested a hypersonic vehicle in January 2014 travelling at a speed five times the speed of sound and aims to attack targets at the speed of Mach 10.

India Must Close Gap

How far has India progressed in robotics is not very clear but the pace appears rather slow. Though the DRDO has developed the Sarap robot, it has taken many years to develop it. We have to leapfrog technology if we are to overcome our asymmetric infirmities and tilt them in India’s favour. No doubt MoD’s 2010 Technology Perspective and Capability Roadmap identifies DEWs and ASAT (anti-satellite) weapons as thrust areas over next 15 years but given DRDO’s track record, how much will actually be delivered by 2025 is anybody’s guess. The UAV and MAV programmes of DRDO must be accelerated. There is need to accelerate the pace of optimising lasers as well. Presently, only the Laser Dazzler that impairs vision temporarily to control unruly crowds is being operationalised albeit DRDO’s Laser Science and Tech Centre (LASTEC) is developing ADITYA − a vehicle mounted gas dynamic laser-based DEW system as a technology demonstrator and a 25-kilowatt laser system is under development to hit a missile in terminal phase at a distance of 5-7 kilometres. In terms of technology, India needs networked elements of national power, information dominance and information assurance, riposte ability to paralyse enemy C4I2 infrastructure, stand-off weapons to pre-empt enemy attack, adequate mix of DEW, PGMs, ASATs etc, ability to disrupt enemy logistics / sustenance, mix of hard kill and soft kill options, layered strategic air and theatre missile defence, competitive cyber warfare capability and ability to exploit cyberspace and electromagnetic domains. Besides lasers, we should be able to exploit technologies like steerable beam, wideband / SDRs, network security, common GIS, data fusion and analysis, alternatives to GPS, dynamic bandwidth management, camouflage etc. Space combat, cyber space combat, radiation combat, robotic combat, nano-technology combat will add to existing forms of combat, zombie war being the latest addition. We must be prepared to win such conflict situations. Leapfrogging technology requires special emphasis. Permitting the asymmetry vis-à-vis the PLA to widen should not be permitted. It needs to be bridged and overtaken. No matter what robotic developments take place, the goal will remain to minimise human losses and increase efficiency. Historically, militaries make use of every innovation that has the potential to support military work and the military robot is an innovation that has application in war as well as life threatening tasks that the military undertakes otherwise too. We must optimise robotics focusing on R&D to win future conflict situations. Our scientists must call upon their creativity and innovativeness to achieve this goal. With government focus and proper public-private industry partnership in the military-industrial complex the possibilities are endless.

FORCE MULTIPLIERS

TAKING MAN OUT OF HARM’S WAY

The evolution of robotic science in respect of armed forces could be viewed along two major dimensions.One, the robotic technologies are used to deal with automated machines and to replace humans working in dangerous environments. Also, to undertake reconnaissance operations over difficult terrain or hostile surroundings robots are much in demand.

DR AJEY LELE

The writer is working with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi as a Research Fellow. His areas of research interests include issues related to Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) and Strategic Technologies. He has various publications to his name.

MV Sewol

Underwater unmanned vehicles (UUVs)

wo recent tragedies have brought into focus the efﬁcacy of robotic vehicles in disaster management. Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, a Boeing 777 aircraft has gone missing since 8 March 2014. As of end of April 2014 many major powers in the world are still in search of this airliner. Based on satellite derived information the search for this craft is taking place in oceans close to and south of Australia. For this particular mission various modern platforms are being put to use. One of them is a robotic submarine, the United States Navy’s Blueﬁn 21. It has been reported that this robotic sub is programmed to hover 30 metres above the seabed at a maximum depth of 4,500 metres. This

platform is described as a “highly modular autonomous underwater vehicle able to carry multiple sensors and payloads at once and has capabilities of taking a 3D image of the sea ﬂoor”. The other recent tragedy is the sinking of the MV Sewol a South Korean ferry on April 16, 2014. Around 150 people have died in this tragic accident. It is learned that the rescuers are using robotic equipment for underwater search.

Dual Use

It is important to appreciate that particularly in the 21st century with the increment in the number of natural and man-made disasters the armed forces are

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

military robotics

FORCE MULTIPLIERS

The most known and discussed robotic system in recent times is flying robots or the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). They are being used in a reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering role since the 1950s. The present progress in this field indicates that more challenging roles are envisioned for such type of robots and increasingly they also would be used for combat missions in future

designing the military robots normally an approach has been to design a mechanism not as an exclusive killing platform but as an instrument which could assist military to undertake difﬁcult tasks. Mostly, the robots have been viewed as instruments which could act as ‘force multipliers’ for the armed forces. In order to save the precious human life or avoid terrible injuries to the soldiers. Robotic devices are used in anti-mining operations. At the same time it should be accepted that robots also offer lethal options to the militaries.

Handling Difficult Assignments being routinely engaged in managing such disasters. The vehicles put in use towards this task are meant for military use. These recent examples demonstrate the wide applicability of such modern robotic systems essentially designed and developed for strategic purposes. Particularly, in the post cold war era various countries are increasingly finding robotic technology extremely useful to handle in both forms of warfare viz conventional as well as unconventional. This article deliberates on the efficacy of this technology in modern day warfighting. The modern day robot is merely not a machine which only obeys instruction but the system has some amount of its own intelligence too. Hence, this article debates robotics along with another important technology called artificial intelligence (AI). Actually the robot requires AI to undertake independent decisions while carrying out its own tasks.

Slaves?

Broadly, a robot could be defined as a mechanical device which usually is operated electromechanically and guided by a computer. Such machines could be used to undertake various activities from working in industry for undertaking complicated tasks to even doing simplistic activities like gardening etc. When such machines are specifically designed to undertake jobs for the military then they are called as military robotics. In fact the concept of robotics (a branch of science dealing with robots) has its origins in science fiction. The famous science fiction writer Isaac Asimov (1920-1992) had even devised three laws of robotics to guarantee their good behaviour which even today stand the test of logic and fair-play. They are:  A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.  A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders could conflict with the First Law.  A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law. Later, Asimov added the Zeroth Law: “A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm.”

Force Multipliers

Even today his ideas about robotics are taken seriously by the robot designers and robotic industry. Hence, while

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

The evolution of robotic science in respect of armed forces could be viewed along two major dimensions. One, the robotic technologies are used to deal with automated machines and to replace humans from working in dangerous environments or manufacturing processes particularly bomb detection / disposal duties and undertaking tasks like handling after effects (and undertaking cleaning operations) in case of any nuclear, biological or chemical attacks. Also, to undertake reconnaissance operations over difﬁcult terrain or hostile surroundings robots are much in demand. There are speciﬁc robotic sensors which are put in place to undertake continuous weather operations to undertake various maritime and aerial operations. Two, the robot systems that essentially operate as unmanned vehicles in both passive and active mode.

Combat Roles

The most known and discussed robotic system in recent times is ﬂying robots or the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). These autonomous systems are also known as drones. They have proved their effectiveness particularly in the Afghanistan-Pakistan theatre. They are remotely piloted or self-piloted aircraft that can carry cameras, sensors, communications equipment or other payloads. They are being used in a reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering role since the 1950s. Also, it may be noted that since these drones / Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs) have also caused some amount of collateral damage and have killed few innocent people too and hence systems have come under much international criticism. The present progress in this ﬁeld Unmanned ground vehicle (UGV)

indicates that more challenging roles are envisioned for such type of robots and increasingly they also would be used for combat missions in future. It could be safely argued that the UAV has come of age and is now in process of establishing itself as an additional force to the existing aerospace platforms. These systems have proved their utility to undertake logistics operations too. In fact, robotic systems have been put successfully to use in providing logistics supply to the international space station. In comparison, the robots on the ground for army purposes commonly known as unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) are still in their early stages of development. The obvious reason for this is the extremely complex nature of ground environment for automated navigation. For any aerial robotic equipment it is easier to move in a three dimensional space with almost no obstacles after a particular height compared to the ground terrain which could range from vegetation, caves, snow or desert.

On-road Manoeuvre

In spite of various technological limitations defence scientists are making reasonable amount of progress in this field. Presently, UGVs have come closer to human performance at least in some cases. Now, it is possible for these systems to touch a speed of 60 mph under normal conditions on a plain road. Still off-road operations are difficult to perform. Particularly, navigation and obstacle avoidance are a major concern. Also, few other difficult issues like requirement of colour sensors for object identification, anticipating obstacles and hazards at a greater distance (because faster moving UGV would require a greater stopping distance) need to be resolved. In Afghanistan / Iraq conflict the US forces have used ground robots for multiple roles with reasonable amount of success. Special weapons observation remote reconnaissance direct action system (SWORDS) robots were used by the US forces selectively in some of their recent military operations. Also, the US Army has developed robotic “mules” that automatically follow the soldiers to carry their equipment and other loads.

Apeing Animals

The underwater unmanned vehicles (UUVs) have major utility for maritime forces. They are more cost-effective than submarines at least for some tasks. Apart from standard surveillance and intelligence gathering operations these systems also have utility in mine warfare and undersea environmental sensing and mapping. In recent years UUVs were deployed in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom. UUVs could play a vital role in respect of tactical oceanographic measurements. Such measurements particularly in politically sensitive or denied areas are hardest to obtain. The UUV technology is also taking clue from the biomimetics (particularly the underwater animal kingdom) for designing new products. Researchers are showing keen interest in designing products based on the structures of lobsters which move and operate not only on sandy bottoms but also in rocky, cave like environments. Such RoboLobsters carry sensors that can detect metal, chemicals, explosive signatures and plumes of other underwater vehicles.

Presently, a major component of computer science is working towards developing Artificial Intelligence (AI) for many years and has achieved significant amount of success in this field. The basic purpose over here is to attempt to emulate human intelligence in a machine. Fields within AI include knowledge-based systems, expert systems, pattern recognition, automatic learning, natural-language understanding, robotics and others Intelligent systems

Along with the robotic systems many armies all over the world have put together various other systems too which depend on information technology (IT) ecosystem. Today, for modern armies usage of IT based tools has become very common and modern day soldiers just cannot avoid their usage. By and large the IT tools are found dictating the modern-day warﬁghting. Apart from the robotic platforms like the UAVs, there are also various other platforms which are not fully machine operated but human operated too. Modern-day ﬁghter aircraft carry laser guided munitions which operate independently once released from the aircraft. Such systems and some other land, water and air based systems require their own intelligence too and hence attempts are being made for making intelligent systems which could decide on their own.

Artiﬁcial Intelligence

Presently, a major component of computer science is working towards developing Artificial Intelligence (AI) for many years and has achieved significant amount of success in this field. The term ‘Artificial intelligence’ was coined in 1956 by John McCarthy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The basic purpose over here is to attempt to emulate human intelligence in a machine. Fields within AI include knowledge-based systems, expert systems, pattern recognition, automatic learning, natural-language understanding, robotics and others. There are various business applications for the AI too.

Assessing Lay Of The Land

Apart from AI few other branches of computer science are found making inroads into the field of defence namely, the ambient intelligence and ubiquitous computing. Ambient intelligence pickups the intelligence on its own from the surroundings and expands the available knowledge. This allows the AI based systems to have additional inputs to decide on their future course of action. Ubiquitous computing is an emerging stage of computing where the existing datum level of computing knowledge is expected to expand further and that could bring significant changes in the existing military IT hardware and software. In the 21st century the nature of warfare is changing radically and technologies like the AI and robotics are playing an important role towards bringing these changes. However, it is important to note that the induction of such technologies also brings in various aspects related to ethics and they need to be addressed properly before making any significant military investments in these technologies and carrying out any changes in the present warfighting doctrines owing to the availability of such technologies.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

military robotics

DISCIPLINE OF THE FUTURE

WHY IS ROBOTICS THE NEXT BIG THING

obotics is a highly relevant and upcoming discipline with wide applications in almost every field of activity. The field of robotics is an amalgamation of Mechanical, Electronic and Embedded System disciplines. As a multi-disciplinary activity, Robotics education is very beneficial to students

since it provides them a new and an exciting way of learning Engineering, Maths, Science and other subjects through STEM Education. The students gain hands-on practice and learn exciting topics like locomotion, grasping, audio-video signal processing, voice recognition, computer vision, artiﬁcial intelligence, cognitive science, biomechanics etc.

Not surprisingly, the Robotic industry is the next biggest industry which is foreseeing a tremendous boom. The Japanese government has predicted that the robotics industry will soon expand to become a US$ 13.2 billion industry, whilst South Korea has committed to nurturing their nation’s robot industry as they believe it has the potential to grow into a US$ 39.4 billion industry. Evidently, Robotics will play a major role in the future, so it is important we prepare the current generation of students. Paolo Fiorini, currently the co-chair of the IEEE’s Robot & Automation Society’s Education Committee, described the use of Robots for educational purposes as an intriguing mix of theoretical and practical experience. When used properly in schools, robots form the basis of a cross curriculum activity, an ideal resource that can be used to teach concepts in Computer Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (CS-STEM) to children at the junior, middle and high school levels. Schools and universities are now incorporating robotics

education in their educational programmes. In the 21st century classroom, Robotics has a major role to play in honing the creative and imaginative skills of the students. Working with robots enhances creative problem-solving techniques among students. Based on results seen in Italian high schools, Paolo Fiorini suggests that when robots are used as educational tools students stop being passive DR PRASHANT BHALLA targets of teaching methods and become The writer is Chancellor, active learning subjects, showing Manav Rachna initiative, independence and a drastic International University, reduction in their learning time. When NCR. He is a strategic robots are used in the classroom, thinker, intellectual and students usually work in small futurist, with varied groups of 2 to 4 students per robot. interests. He has steered This encourages the development Manav Rachna to great of basic communication and heights and envisions a inter-personal skills. The glorious future ability to collaborate and for the group. convey complex ideas to fellow students or colleagues is an important skill that is seen as essential by modern employers. The use of robots in the classroom subconsciously introduces students to possible career paths they may well have never even considered. Engineering principles, such as electrical, mechanical and chemical, as well as IT skills are required to successfully complete a robotic based project. Robotics is a perfect way to show students that engineering and IT can be fun. This would also help to address the issue of the skilled worker shortage that exists, particularly in engineering. Robotics has had a positive impact on teachers too, in that it offers them an opportunity to be imaginative in pedagogy and learning design. Robotics is well suited to Problem-Based Learning and Challenge-Based Learning cutting across all genders and age groups. China has put a huge amount of government funding into working towards making robotics a part of the state curriculum. In Britain, there is a push to include robotics in the mandatory design class. In Russia, there are already 3000 schools which include robotics in their curricula and a representative of the ministry of education at the ﬁrst world symposium on robotics in science and technology education afﬁrmed that they were attempting to expand the use of robotics. As robotics technology continues to advance, the military-industrial partnership should be maintained and encouraged through legislative, policy and organisational innovations to ensure that top-level robotics continue to be applied to national defence. To maintain world-class military technology, the government and the educational institutes in general and engineering institutes in particular must continue to invest in these technologies in accordance with combatant needs. While robotics is not a panacea for all situations where manpower is necessary, they are a vital tool in a country’s military prowess and nation building exercise.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

INS Kolkata ready for action

T ‘Iron Man’ suits

t the recent International Special Operation Forces Conference in Tampa, SOCOM Commander Adm William McRaven highlighted the progress made on the Tactical Assault Light Operator Suit (TALOS) project. The prototypes of the suits are expected by June 2014 and may be given to high-risk Special Forces units by 2018. These exoskeleton suits can monitor the user’s vital signs, give him real-time battleﬁeld information and be bulletproof from head to toe and offer Google-Glass like visuals.

he first of the three destroyers being built at Mazagon Dock Ltd (MDL) Mumbai under project 15-A, INS Kolkata is being given finishing touches for delivery to the Indian Navy in a couple of weeks. INS Kolkata will function as the flagship of a naval task force, will be manned by a crew of 325 and has an operating range of 15,000 km extending across the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic and the Pacific.

ndia has successfully test-fired a new interceptor missile capable of neutralising any incoming long-range missile at higher altitude. The target mimicking an incoming missile was first test-fired from a naval ship and after getting signals from the radars, the interceptor was fired from the launch pad-IV of Integrated Test Range at Wheeler Island, Odisha.

Air-conditioned helmet for soldiers

he Edgewood Chemical Biological Centre, a part of the US Army Research, Development and Engineering Command is developing a next generation protective helmet with a built-in air-conditioning system to help soldiers beat the heat in the sweltering battleﬁeld. This new technology brings relief to the soldier through a powerful air-purifying respirator which consists of a hose connected to the face mask from a blower unit and battery pack hanging off the hip or back.

Astra missile debuts

arking a significant turning point in a decade-long developmental saga of the complex BVR weapon India finally tested its first indigenous air-to-air missile Astra from a Sukhoi-30 MKI fighter jet. Astra will now have to undergo a battery of full-scale trials covering the entire flight envelope, especially against actual manoeuvring targets mimicking enemy aircraft before induction. Only the US, Russia, France and Israel have managed to develop BVR missiles till now.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

India test-ﬁres interceptor missile

India ﬂaunts its frigates T

o participate in the world’s largest naval exercise being hosted by United States from June 26 to August 1 INS Sahyadri a Shivalik class stealth frigate will be soon sailing for Hawaii to take part in the Rim of the Paciﬁc (RIMPAC) war games. Of late India seems to be ﬂaunting its warship-building capabilities to the world with indigenously-built frontline vessels being dispatched to take part in international naval exercises. In April Indian Navy had sent its stealth frigate INS Shivalik to Qingdao to take part in a naval exercise to mark the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s 65th year of founding.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

military robotics

SUB-SURFACE EXPLOITS mention that mine sweeping is perhaps the most tedious and time consuming operation. The lethality of sea mines has been demonstrated during the 1991 Gulf War when USS Princeton and USS Tripoli struck sea mines that cost the US$ 21.6 million while the cost of the mines was only DR VIJAY SAKHUJA US$ 11,500. Even non-state actors The writer is Director such as the LTTE and the Al (Research) Indian Council Qaeda had factored sea mines in of World Affairs, their strategy. For instance, LTTE New Delhi. saboteurs successfully planted mines on Sri Lankan Navy ships with very effective results. The LTTE also had plans to acquire manned submersibles. Similarly, an Al Qaeda naval manual had instructions for attaching limpet mines to hulls of ships. Interestingly, some navies had trained intelligent sea animals such as dolphins and sea lions to swim close to mines and place a marker, minimising any danger from them.

Adamya AUV

UNMANNED PLATFORMS

AND UNDERWATER OPERATIONS

Unmanned underwater platforms have successfully provided the ability to reach inaccessible spaces, minimised risks to humans, supported a number of military related activities and reduced time of operations / disposal. In the coming years, unmanned and manned underwater robot industry will witness higher investments and newer technologies will be added to perform a number of naval and maritime tasks.

n 2007, Russia alarmed the world by successfully positioning its flag on the Lomonosov ridge under the North Pole. Two mini-submarines Mir-1 and Mir-2 deployed on-board the icebreaker Rossiya undertook a record-breaking 4,300 meters dive to position the titanium flag and also collected water and sediment samples and safely returned to the mother ship. The purpose of the dive was twofold; first to undertake oceanographic survey and collect seabed data in the Arctic and second to reinforce Russia’s claim to the Lomonosov ridge which would generate 460,000 square miles of additional continental shelf for Russia. Canada, Norway, Russia, the US and Denmark (Greenland) claim Exclusive Economic Zone of 200 nautical miles north of their coastline and are now preparing

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

to file their claim to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) to extend continental shelf in the Arctic. Unmanned platforms are fast gaining popularity among the militaries, police forces and the industry to support a number of activities where humans are at high risk. These platforms are also being put into operations in inaccessible and remote spaces for a number of tasks. Likewise, robots are being developed to perform a number of tasks in the highly dynamic and fast changing maritime battle space. These are capable of operating in shallow, deep, dark and dangerous waters and can perform a wide range of activities such as naval operations, sea mine disposal, firefighting on-board ships, undersea mapping,

seabed resource development, pipeline inspection and repairing and inspecting undersea ﬁber optic cables which carry large volume of digital data. In recent times, these platforms were deployed to search for the data and voice recorders of the ﬂights which crashed in the sea. Unmanned underwater platforms have also successfully provided the ability to reach inaccessible spaces, minimised risks to humans, supported a number of military related activities and reduced time of operations / disposal. In the coming years, unmanned and manned underwater robot industry will witness higher investments and newer technologies will be added to perform a number of naval and maritime tasks.

Countermine Operations

Robots are useful for disposal of underwater ordnance even in low light conditions and are being developed for sea mines disposal. Sea mines, (tethered, drifting, acoustic, contact, magnetic) are the cheapest and highly lethal underwater ordnance. These pose a number of challenges for the navies and it is important to

A number of western navies are developing underwater platforms and robots for surveying mine infested sea areas, mine sweeping and mine disposal. For instance, the US Navy has the Mark 18 Mod 1 UUV which is ﬁtted with sonars, navigation and positioning system and can also perform intelligence-driven mine counter measure (MCM) operations.

Underwater Search And Rescue

The international search and rescue efforts to locate the black box and the debris of the Malaysia Airlines MH 370 involved a number of underwater platforms. The Towed Pinger Locator (TPL) is a passive device and can detect transmissions between 3.5 kHz and 50 kHz. It is attached to a cable, streamed in the water and then towed behind a ship and the data from the equipment is processed on an on-board system. The US has deployed TPL-25 on-board the Australian Defence Vessel Ocean Shield. The TPL was also deployed to search for the ‘black box’ of Air France 447. Likewise, the US Navy has also deployed the Bluefin-21, a deep-sea AUV (autonomous underwater vehicle) to search for the MH 370. It is a torpedo-like craft with ‘sidescan’ sonar and can reach over two miles below the water surface and access difficult underwater spaces. Significantly, it has the capability to carry out surveillance of the seabed at a rate of 40 square miles per day. The Bluefin-21 was successfully deployed to search for the wreckage of F-15 fighter jet which crashed into the sea off Japan. The above equipment are useful for searching and locating underwater objects but a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) with multiple arms is deployed for cutting / extracting and removal of equipment. For instance, in 2001, the ROV Remora was deployed for inspecting the Titanic site and in 2007 it helped to locate the debris of Adam Air flight 574 which crashed in the Makassar Strait, Indonesia.

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military robotics

SUB-SURFACE EXPLOITS

India’s attempts to develop underwater unmanned platforms and robots merit attention. The National Institute of Ocean Technology under the DRDO has developed the 1.7-tonne reconfigurable AUV which can operate at 500 meters depth and carry 500 kilogram payloads to conduct a variety of underwater operations such as surveillance, mine countermeasure and delivery of ammunition

ROV Remora

cases, smoke and heat from the fire may prevent access to the source. To overcome these limitations, a number of systems have been developed. The US Virginia Tech and its partner universities have developed the Shipboard Autonomous Fire-fighting Robot (SAFFiR) to undertake a number of operations such as operating fire hydrant valves, unwinding the fire hose and throwing water at the source of the fire.

Oceanography And Resource Development

The global demand for living and non-living resources is increasing and mankind has begun to explore the seas. Among the non-living resources, aggressive offshore surveys have been underway with several major successes. Likewise, deep seabed minerals are the next repository of metals and minerals that would be ready for exploitation after technology has been developed. A number of underwater systems and ROVs are being developed to map the seabed, gather geological data and conduct mining operations. For instance, China plans to deploy such platforms in the Indian Ocean to extract seabed resources.

India And Underwater Robotics

Bluefin-21

It will be useful to mention that the undersea pipelines and cables are prone to disruption due to a number of reasons such as attack by saboteurs, dragging of anchor by ships etc. During World War I, Great Britain dispatched a ship to cut Germany’s five trans-Atlantic submarine telegraph cables and it eavesdropped on a German communication to the Mexican government Underwater Pipelines And Cables Repairs

It will be useful to mention that the undersea pipelines and cables are ‘poorly armoured, rarely patrolled and occasionally monitored’. They are prone to disruption

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

due to a number of reasons such as attack by saboteurs, dragging of anchor by ships etc. During World War I, Great Britain dispatched a ship to cut Germany’s ﬁve trans-Atlantic submarine telegraph cables and it eavesdropped on a German communication to the Mexican government. During the cold war the US had undertaken tapping operation of the Soviet underwater cables. According to a telegeography specialist there are nearly 100 snap cable mishaps annually. There have been instances when ﬁber optic cables have been damaged by ship’s anchor or due to underwater earthquakes. In 2006, an earthquake in Taiwan damaged underwater cables and cut off communication to a number of countries in Asia. The above is a common phenomenon in the

Persian Gulf, North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico and a number of underwater laser scanning systems such as the ULS-100 and ULS-200 have been developed for this purpose. The CAD software in the system generates 3D models of the damaged pipeline which helps carry out repair where required without risks to humans.

Fireﬁghting

A complex platform such as a ship operates a number of systems that are driven by hydraulic, pneumatic and electrical power. In a ship, electrical wires criss-cross the entire length and breadth of the ship and carry a variety of voltage and amperes. These are highly susceptible to damage due to a number of factors that range from ship heat, poor insulation etc which cause ﬁres. These ﬁres can take place in inaccessible compartments and in some

India’s attempts to develop underwater unmanned platforms and robots merit attention. The National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT) under the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has developed the 1.7-tonne reconﬁgurable AUV which can operate at 500 meters depth and carry 500 kilogram payloads to conduct a variety of underwater operations such as surveillance, mine countermeasure and delivery of ammunition. The NSTL is also developing the 12-tonne Autonomous Sea Vehicle (ASV) which is based on the US Navy’s‘MantaUnmannedUnderwaterVehicle’.Theprivately owned L&T Heavy Engineering has developed a unique AUV called Adamya which can be launched from the torpedo tube of a submarine. It is designed to perform a number of tasks including mine sweeping, surveillance and reconnaissance, hydrographic survey and environmental monitoring. Interestingly, a group of students from Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai have developed an AUV called Matsya 2.0 which can perform a number of ‘predetermined and programmed tasks’ such as ‘rescue operations without involving any human effort’. The Indian Navy has announced requirement for 15 lightweight (man-portable) and 10 heavyweight Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) for mine detection, sea bottom mapping and other underwater tasks. This requirement can potentially boost India’s underwater platform industry.

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defence industry

NOW THE DELUGE?

PER CENT

FDI IN DEFENCE

The resort to 100 per cent foreign direct investment is a landmark moment in the evolution of the Indian military industrial complex and it remains to be seen whether it produces the desired results. This is a moment to also ponder on the evolution of a military industrial complex in a Non-aligned nation beset by pinpricks from its neighbours and innumerable wars by proxy by instigating disgruntled elements inside India.

ndia is currently the importer of the largest value of weapons by any country. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) India takes in 12 per cent of the global arms imports. This has happened even though the Foreign Direct Investment by military majors was set by the outgoing Congress led UPA government at 26 per cent which everybody seems to agree is insufﬁcient to attract foreign arms manufacturers in areas where India needs stateof-the-art technologies to boost its yesteryears weapons platforms to ﬁfth generation levels. The implication of a hundred per cent Foreign Direct Investment is an expectation that the foreign investor will bring in the desired technology and thus boost the local capability to regenerate itself and be able to modernise as years go by.

Military Industrial Complex

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Pakistan and one with China and innumerable wars by proxy by both by instigating disgruntled elements inside India to launch insurgencies, the most horrendous being the Sikh Khalistani uprising stoked by Pakistan in Punjab in the hope of legitimising the ﬂawed ‘Two Nation’ theory of its own creation. China never wanted India to grow economically strong and used Pakistan to undercut India.

The reasons why budgets allocated for the armed forces were largely returned unutilised in the Capital account because (1) the indigenous product was not available and (2) there was not enough time to negotiate and complete the process of procurement without falling into the trap of single vendor situation Cold War

For most of its existence India was a victim of the cold war and were it not for the Soviet perception that this country had natural afﬁnities with the communist countries, India would have long been overrun and ravaged by Pakistan as had happened over the centuries before both countries attained independence from British colonialism. By choosing Non-alignment it inherited the legacy of threats and coercion and infusion of the

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

defence industry

The failure of the 26 per cent Foreign Direct Investment scheme has much to do with the private sector’s lack of experience in running a military industrial complex not to mention the desire on the part of the foreign partner to maximise his profits and exploit technology generated by years of research and development effort to the full most modern weaponry into the region to stoke rivalries that should best have been left untouched. Pakistan was armed to the gills with the most modern of weapons which encouraged it to provoke India into wars that sapped its economy and all but derailed it from its chosen path of economic development. It was only after the Chinese aggression of 1962 that Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and former Defence Minister began to give a fillip to the Indian ordnance factories that were a relic of the British colonialism and laid the foundations of the military industrial complex through the creation of a research and development base and a contiguous Defence Public Sector Undertaking to productionise what was created in the DRDO laboratories. Thus tanks, aircraft, light field guns of 105 mm calibre and a new generation of 5.4 mm calibre small arms replaced the cumbersome .303 rifle. The private sector was not encouraged to participate nor was it overly interested in investing so heavily on creating infrastructure for a private sector military production facility. The failure of the 26 per cent Foreign Direct Investment scheme has much to do with the private sector’s lack of experience in running a military industrial complex not to mention the desire on the part of the foreign partner to maximise his profits and exploit technology generated by years of research and development effort to the full. That applies to arms manufacturers of all nationalities. It is only the perceived self-interest of the Russian Federation that it has taken over where the Soviet Union left off in 1990 when it collapsed. It left a legacy of nearly 80 per cent of dependency by India for its military wherewithal for its defence.

The Catalyst

In the meantime a few of the projects initiated soon after the Chinese aggression bore fruit. The Vijayanta tank, the Indian ﬁeld gun, the missiles under the Integrated Guided Missile Programme, the stretched Leander class frigates on the sea and a host of other building blocks for better equipment began to ﬂow out of the laboratories. However, the inordinate delay in the creation of the Arjun tank and the light combat aircraft forced India to continue to depend on foreign sources for the most expensive of weapons. The reasons why budgets allocated for the armed forces were largely returned unutilised in the Capital account because (1) the indigenous product was not available and (2) there was not enough time to negotiate and complete the process of procurement without falling into the trap of single vendor situation. Over the past decade India has had to blacklist dozens of foreign arms manufacturers for violating the clause not to use middlemen to secure contracts or pay kickbacks to Indians.

military muscle

NOW THE DELUGE?

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Outlay For R&D

In the mid-90s the Parliamentary Committee on Defence had recommended that the government progressively raise the outlay for defence research and development to 3 per cent of the GDP or 10 per cent of the defence budget whichever was more. Due to a variety of reasons the ﬁgure has rarely been able to touch 2 per cent of the GDP. Yet in moments of crisis like the Kargil invasion money was found for the unbudgeted acquisitions running into billions of rupees for equipment that arrived too late to be used in Kargil. Every so often a Chief of Army Staff sounds a warning that reserves of ammunition and other equipment are dangerously low. Kargil proved such warnings to be justiﬁed given the manner that the government of the day – a BJP led coalition – had to run abroad to acquire the needed weaponry.

Restrictive Weapons Regimes

Yet it is not that India was able to secure what it wanted from off-the-shelf because of restrictive international regimes like the CoCom during the days of the Soviet Union to the renamed Wassaanar Arrangement and the Missile Technology Control Regime which were designed to prevent weapons and sensors falling into hands of nations that did not sign the discriminatory Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty that was designed to prevent non-signatories from acquiring nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction. All of these restrictive regimes exist even today and India has had to negotiate with the Suppliers’ Group for access to nuclear fuel for its safeguarded reactors. Much haggling has yet to be done.

EXPOSITIONS

MEANINGLESS JAMBOREES

MAJOR GENERAL (DR) MRINAL SUMAN AVSM, VSM (RETD)

The writer is India’s foremost expert in myriad aspects of defence procurement procedures and offsets. He heads Defence Technical Assessment and Advisory Services Group of the Confederation of Indian Industry. A proliﬁc writer, his articles are regularly translated in many languages and his views command immense respect in India and abroad.

Hurdles Ahead

Thus, it is for these reasons that one wonders about the efficacy of the Indian offer of a 100 per cent Foreign Direct Investment. Indian negotiators are painfully aware that even as close a collaborator in defence contracts as Israel is sometimes chary about sharing technology incorporated in state-of-the-art military equipment. If a nation or its arms manufacturer does not agree to share the technology of a certain component of an equipment, it makes no sense in buying that equipment. Some nations, the US in particular, insist on intrusive periodic inspections of their equipment to check if the buyer has not tampered with it or tried to replicate it. India has objected to such intrusive inspections. Will this policy change? This is an issue involved in the Poseidon maritime reconnaissance aircraft that India has purchased from the US. Several other equipment are out of India’s reach because of embargos placed on their delivery to any foreign nation without a clear licence from the US government. Then again there is the issue of blacklisting by the Congress-led government of firms involved in corruption and illegal trade practices. Will the BJP-led goverment absolve these firms after winning a massive majority largely on the corruption issue? And how the initiative of the new government for 100 per cent FDI in defence unfolds and spawns a surge in the Indian military industrial complex remains to be seen.

n informal discussion with foreign arms manufacturers on the sidelines of a recent seminar proved quite revealing. As India’s much-publicised defence exhibition, carrying the impressive taxonomy of ‘Land, Naval and Internal Home Land Security Systems Exhibition 2014’ had just got over, it was only to be expected that the discussion would drift towards its conduct and the takeaways. Quite expectedly, not a single participant had a good word to say about the whole event. Whereas most were discreet and guarded in their criticism, some were forthright in censuring the organisers for their slipshod management of the Defexpo.

Foreign Criticism

Adverse comments have been heard earlier as well and did

not come as a surprise. However, what hurt the most was a derisive comment by an elderly foreign executive, “I have been attending Indian defence exhibitions for years now and the things are only getting worse. I am amazed that a nation that cannot organise a Defexpo with basic facilities entertains the hopes of manufacturing high-tech weapons.” Almost all foreign vendors were unanimous in their view that participation in India’s defence expositions was a dreadful experience and a sheer waste of time and resources. One of them was honest enough to admit, “It is a business compulsion for us to mark our presence in these events. Our presence may not fetch us any gains but our absence will certainly be held against us; and India is too big a market for us to lose by default.”

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military muscle

EXPOSITIONS

With its bureaucratic approach, DEO has reduced these exhibitions to purposeless charades, wherein ceremonial rituals take precedence over business requisites. India’s excessive penchant for protocol is viewed as a painful obsession by all. Resultantly, these expositions have lost their trade and commerce focus Amateur Organisers

Whereas the Ministry of Defence (MoD) had been organising Aero India shows since 1997, the credit for taking the initiative to hold defence exhibition at New Delhi goes to the Confederation of Indian Industry. The first Defexpo was held in 1999, albeit at a limited scale with less than 200 exhibitors. It was in 2008 that MoD decided to take control of Defexpo as well. The Defence Exhibition Organisation (DEO) under the Department of Defence Production (DDP) of MoD was created in 1981. It is the nodal agency tasked to organise and coordinate both the major expositions – Aero India and Defexpo India. These are held biennially on alternate years – Aero India at Bangalore and Defexpo at New Delhi. In addition, DEO coordinates participation of Indian defence industries in exhibitions abroad. It also maintains a permanent defence exhibition at the Defence Pavilion, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi. With its bureaucratic approach, DEO has reduced these exhibitions to purposeless charades, wherein ceremonial rituals take precedence over business requisites. India’s excessive penchant for protocol is viewed as a painful obsession by all. Resultantly, these expositions have lost their trade and commerce focus. Instead of promoting exports and facilitating business deals, DEO remains pre-occupied with official entourages. Worse, as soon as the VIPs depart after the opening ceremony, the whole management does the vanishing trick. It is free for all. All exhibitors and visitors are left to fend for themselves. There are no guides or ushers. Sign-posting is grossly inadequate. Basic facilities like snack bars and toilets are always woefully short. Ladies are put to great inconvenience as they have to walk long distances to find a rest room. Worse, most toilets are so poorly maintained that by the second morning almost all of them get adorned with ‘Out of Use’ placards.

Slipshod Arrangements

Security and crowd management continue to pose challenges. At the recently concluded Defexpo, it was sad to see the Defence Minister of the country being constrained to apologise to the participants for mismanagement at the entry gates. “When I was coming here, I found an unusually long queue outside the venue. I feel embarrassed and apologise. By the time they come in, the programme will be over. I am sorry about that,” he said. Such slipshod arrangements give credence to the apprehensions expressed by

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

many foreign exhibitors about India’s competence to manufacture high-tech weapons.

no sponsors for Defexpo 2010 and DEO had to shoulder the complete responsibility.

Holding of the Aero show at an air force station like Yelahanka at Bangalore throws up peculiar challenges. Whereas a trade show needs to ensure easy access, unhindered movement and open interaction amongst the participants and the visitors, an air force station has to ensure security of its premises and equipment, necessitating irksome security checks. Moreover, an air force station is always laid out as per the operational and logistical needs of a ﬁghter force. It does not lend itself to a trade show and fails to provide the necessary environment for cementing trade ties.

Indian Participants

The Lost Objective

As per the MoD website, DEO has been created with the primary objective of promoting export of defence oriented products and services, developed and manufactured by the defence public sector, viz defence public sector undertakings (DPSUs), the Ordnance Factories Board (OFB) and the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). Unfortunately, over the years, the above objective has been totally forgotten and an export promotion endeavour has got converted into an import facilitation event. The focus has shifted from showcasing Indian products for exports to inviting maximum foreign vendors to exhibit their defence ordnance for Indian officials to learn about them and prepare their procurement proposals accordingly. In other words, defence exhibitions have degenerated into providing a platform to foreign manufacturers to hard sell their latest products. It is claimed that 624 companies from 30 countries showcased their products in Defexpo 2014. Whereas 368 foreign companies marked their presence, the number of Indian companies slid to 256 from 335 in 2012 – a reduction of a whopping 25 per cent. The above change of approach is clearly evident from the official declarations made at the inauguration ceremonies. Increasingforeignparticipationiscitedasaproofofthesuccessof the event. Every official speaker self-importantly highlights the fact that India continues to be the top importer of conventional weapons in the world. Reprehensibly, foreign vendors are exhorted to exploit the enormous business opportunities being provided by India. It is repeatedly claimed that India’s impending defence imports in the next few years may touch US$ 100 billion. By flaunting India’s huge shopping list, the officials bask in the attention showered on them by the foreign vendors. Some go to the extent of terming the defence exposition as a one-stop shop. Interestingly, not a word is said by any official to promote exports. Worse, MoD has converted defence expositions into money making ventures. For every exhibition, DEO lays down the minimum guarantee money. The highest bidder is awarded the contract to organise the show. Resultantly, commercial interests of the organisers become the main concern and the quality suffers. Interestingly, there were

A look at the Indian participants and their export potential will be in order here. India’s DPSUs, OFB, DRDO and Director General Quality Assurance are regular exhibitors and purchase large exhibition space. They have to participate as they come under DDP and have no choice. However, even a casual glance at their export potential reveals a dismal picture.

Quite absurdly, DEO claims phenomenal growth of the two expositions over the years and claims credit for having contributed ‘immensely’ towards export promotion. Despite the fact that India has been holding defence expositions for over 15 years now, exports continue to stagnate between US$ 50-60 million annually while India has climbed to the ignoble position of being the largest importer of conventional weapons in the world. See the illustration below. Even Defence Minister Antony has been quite candid in admitting that India’s defence exports were ‘woefully meagre’.

With 39 ordnance factories and 9 undertakings, the public sector possesses enormous infrastructure and manufacturing facilities. Despite periodic infusion of imported technologies, it has failed to use them as a springboard to develop newer technologies. The nature of articles being offered for export shows pedestrian level of technology involved – bolt action rifles, tents, demolition stores, brake parachutes for aircraft, telephone cable JWD-1 and cartridges 5.56 mm. No country holds defence expositions to hawk the above items. Replying to a question, the Minister of State for Defence informed the parliament on 13 December 2010 that defence exports from the ordnance factories had declined from Rs 41.07 crore in 2008-09 to Rs 12.28 crore in 2009-10. It is appalling that 39 ordnance factories could collectively find foreign buyers for Rs 12.28 crore worth of goods, a laughable figure indeed. The latest figures have not been made public so far. DRDO enjoys the dubious distinction of never developing any equipment in the required time-frame and conforming to the operational parameters. Not a single state-of-the-art weapon system has been developed or produced indigenously so far. The only success DRDO has to its credit relates to the replication of some imported low-tech products (euphemistically called ‘reverse engineering’ and ‘indigenisation’). Therefore, it has little to offer for export. Despite repeated assertions of providing equal opportunities to both the sectors, the private sector remains a peripheral player. It knows that it cannot hope to bag major orders in competition with the public sector. Therefore, it has set its sights much lower. It showcases its products either to establish itself as a supplier of sub-assemblies to the public sector or become Indian offset partner of foreign companies.

Conclusion

Number of participants cannot be indicative of the success of a trade show. Success of any export oriented endeavour should be measured in terms of business generated and sale deals signed with foreign buyers. Unfortunately, this aspect has never been mentioned by DEO or any other ofﬁcial agency.

India: World’s Largest Importer of Conventional Weapons With Highest CAGR (Source: SIPRI Yearbook 2013) As regards poor management of the expositions, a government has no business to be organising trade events. Administration of such events should be left to the professionals. Defence Security and Equipment International is the world’s largest fully integrated international defence exhibition, held once in two years at London. Following the decision of the British government to privatise the exhibition, it is currently owned by Clarion Events, the largest independent event organiser in the UK. Although it works closely with the British government, the complete functional control stays with Clarion Events. India will do well to reconsider the utility of holding Aero India and Defexpo India. Are they worth the time, effort and expenditure? Instead of promoting exports, they provide platforms to foreign vendors to hawk their products. In case it is decided to continue with them, it will be prudent to follow the British example and let business associations organise them in a professional manner. Involvement of MoD should be limited to providing unobtrusive oversight.

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neighbourhood watch

SUBTERFUGE

PAKISTAN’S DEVIOUS STRATAGEM After years of watching Pakistan’s efforts to grab more territory in north Kashmir through alpine expeditions and cartographic aggression with maps showing the Line of Control veering sharply eastwards to join up with the Karakoram Pass (instead of going straight northwards ‘towards the glaciers’) the government of India decided to act. 52

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n his very first public utterance the new Pakistani High Commissoner to India Abdul Basit confirmed the worst fears of a handful of Indian strategic analysts who had warned against the withdrawal of the Indian Army from the Siachen Glacier because it would redound on India’s claims to the whole of Jammu and Kashmir being an integral part of India. Basit said that the Siachen problem may be the first few issues to be closed when talks resume. He said it was a “low-hanging fruit” meaning thereby that it can be solved easily.

Predictable Ploy

This gambit was expected by a few perceptive analysts. They had warned that by agreeing to the proposition that if

the Pakistan Army accepts the current “Actual Ground Positions Line” showing exactly where troops of both sides are stationed they can withdraw to mutually agreed positions India would be abdicating its sovereignty over Jammu and Kashmir. It is necessary to make the readers aware of the background to the Siachen situation. After the 1948 War for Jammu and Kashmir a ceasefire was agreed. A Ceasefire Line showing the positions of troops from both countries was drawn up. However, after delineating the last point called NJ9842 the delineating authority, unable to deal with the terrain and the climate decided to stop and stated that the Ceasefire Line goes “north to the glaciers”. After the 1971 War the name “Ceasefire Line” was changed to “Line of Control”. But it remained delineated only up to grid reference NJ9842.

Supreme Pre-emption

After years of watching Pakistan’s efforts to grab more territory in north Kashmir through alpine expeditions and cartographic aggression with maps showing the Line of Control veering sharply eastwards to join up with the Karakoram Pass instead of going straight northwards the government of India decided to act. The ﬁnal straw was a protest letter in August 1983 from a local Pakistani commander to his Indian counterpart in Kargil stating that “the Line of Control joins the Karakoram Pass, also that all the areas west of this extended line belong to Pakistan”.

Siachen should not have been brought to the negotiation table especially because IK Gujral had enjoyed proximity to Indira Gandhi and should have learned from her example. She had refused to return territory captured during the 1971 War in Jammu and Kashmir stating bluntly that the whole of Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India and, therefore, there was no question of returning any part of it to anybody

It needs to be emphasised that it was not a unilateral action by India. Pakistan was actively engaged in assembling a brigade plus force to occupy the pass giving access to the southern edge of the Siachen Glacier. Indians discovered that the Pakistanis were buying high altitude equipment from the same shop in England. They PAWAN AGRAWAL scrambled to get their own troops The writer is Publisher and out of Leh and onto the glacier in Chief Executive Ofﬁcer of 1984 beating Pakistan by a few days Defence and Security Alert on Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s (DSA) magazine. express orders. Indian deployment was such that it occupied all the high points on the Saltoro range in such a manner that it dominated both the glacier on the east and the approaches from Pakistan-held Kashmir on the west. This prevented the Pakistanis from ever setting foot on the glacier. This is a myth that needed to be dispelled given Pakistan High Commissioner Basit’s statement that the Siachen issue is a “low hanging fruit” and thus amenable to quick resolution. The Pakistanis have nothing to give by way of quid pro quo. It is only the Indians that will be giving away positions secured with the blood and sheer guts of Indian soldiers.

Pakistan’s Frustration

Just one example: The Pakistanis had occupied a spur overlooking Indian positions on the Saltoro ridge. Sitting on a 21,000 ft promontory the Pakistanis could take potshots at Indian positions killing Indian soldiers at will. It was an unacceptable position and so the local commander decided to neutralise Qaid Post (named after the founder of Pakistan Qaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah). In June 1987 three attack forces were formed to capture the Qaid Post on three alternate days. The ﬁrst two attempts were beaten back by the Pakistanis but the third batch led by Naib Subedar Bana Singh of 8 Jammu and Kashmir Light Infantry crawled through crevasses in the icewall that protected the Qaid Post and with grenades and bayonets killed six Pakistanis. The post was renamed Bana Top and Naib Subedar Bana Singh, now Honorary Captain, was decorated with the highest gallantry award Param Vir Chakra.

Not Negotiable

In the highest battlefield in the world Pakistan made many determined attempts to dislodge Indian troops from the Saltoro heights but to no avail. They were beaten back with high casualties time and again. The great tragedy of this battlefield was that it should never have been brought to the negotiating table because it was a victory already won. In the uncertain political landscape of India after the Rajiv Gandhi tenure as Prime Minister the period between 1989 to 1999 saw the advent of seven Prime Ministers with many who stayed less than a year in office. Among them was Inder Kumar Gujral who was in office for 332 days. It was in Male in May, 1997 that the idea of a “Composite Dialogue” was floated and accepted as the basis for seeking a peaceful resolution to the many problems confronting the two countries. Into this basket

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neighbourhood watch

military robotics

SUBTERFUGE

The greater affliction suffered by the Siachen battlefield was the sustained and unremitting campaign by very senior retired Generals who made the point that the territory had no strategic value and that it was all a huge waste of money of dialogues was tossed the Siachen Glacier issue. It should not have been brought to the negotiation table especially because IK Gujral had enjoyed proximity to Indira Gandhi and should have learned from her example. She had refused to return territory captured during the 1971 War in Jammu and Kashmir stating bluntly that the whole of Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India and, therefore, there was no question of returning any part of it to anybody. At Male, the vily Nawaz Sharif made full use of Gujral’s pro-Pakistan proclivities – he is credited with curbing India’s external Intelligence agency R&AW’s operations inside Pakistan.

The Battle Within

The greater afﬂiction suffered by the Siachen battleﬁeld was the sustained and unremitting campaign by very

the media understood the implications of the disconnect between the civil and the military and set about breaking the nexus. The sweet smell of governorship ﬁnally ended that one fountainhead of criticism and Siachen soon became a very strategic bit of territory. What rankles the nation is that if Siachen was not where the battle should have been fought nobody suggested any alternatives. Nobody was heard saying let us liberate Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Instead, we are on the verge of playing into Pakistani hands and undermining our territorial integrity not just in Jammu and Kashmir but in the “20-30” other places that Pakistan’s friend, China, has said it should happen. Pakistan has been baulking on the Actual Ground Position Line as a tactic that can quickly be abandoned once India is drawn into the trap. Going by Basit’s words, the trap is about to be sprung.

FACT AND FICTION

SOCIAL ACCEPTANCE

OF NUCLEAR POWER IN INDIA Many countries such as China, Sweden, USA, South Korea, Japan, India etc are confronting today public opposition as the key issue when they try to expand or restart their nuclear plant operations. However, in very few countries have the anti-nuclear activists succeeded.

The Reasons Why

Here are the reasons why India must back away from a “settlement of the Siachen issue”. One: Pakistan is nowhere near the glacier. Two: Siachen is part of Jammu and Kashmir which is an integral, non-negotiable part of India.

Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP)

R senior retired Generals who made the point that the territory had no strategic value and that it was all a huge waste of money. Among them was one who was deprived by Indira Gandhi of the post of Chief of Army Staff. Another had participated in planning the induction and was party to choosing the battleﬁeld (brilliantly, one must concede). Nehru’s quote about the landscape in north Kashmir being bald with not a blade of grass was used to bolster the argument for abandoning the campaign. The cost was calculated to the last loaf of bread being several hundred rupees per pack. These voices of denigration orchestrated right down the military hierarchy made full use of the media to make their point. Not a moment was wasted on the morale of the men who were shedding their blood to save India the humiliation of losing its territory. By denigrating the Siachen deployment the impression grew that these voices were being raised as proxy for non-compliant serving ofﬁcers. A very small section of

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Three: If there is any vacation of territory to be implemented it is by Pakistan and China who are sitting on territory they themselves describe as disputed. Four: Are we about to hand over to Pakistan on the negotiating table what it could not grab on the battleﬁeld? Army Chief General Bikram Singh gave his advice in clear, unambiguous terms as long ago as 2012: The Indian military would not like to move out of the “strategically important” icy heights for which a “lot of blood has been shed”. He said the army has conveyed its views to the government which has to take a ﬁnal decision in this regard.“It is very important and we must continue to hold that area and we have held that view always ... We have lost our lives and lot of blood has been shed to get into these areas and occupy the heights and positions.” India must heed his advice.

eportedly, the technical negotiations between India and Russia are close to completion and an agreement will be signed for Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) 3 and 4, most probably before Lok Sabha elections scheduled for April this year. Meanwhile, India and France have agreed on the cost of power that will be generated by Jaitapur Nuclear Power Plant (JNPP), which may expedite the construction process of six reactors by Areva. Currently, 4 Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors, 1 Pressurised Fast Breeder Reactor and 1 Russian Voda Voda Energo Reactor (VVER) are under construction in India. If both Kudankulam and Jaitapur projects kick-start, at least a dozen reactors in total will be under construction in India during this decade. Given the sporadic anti-nuclear protest in different pockets of the country, the pertinent question is the degree of ‘social acceptance’ of nuclear power in India. How much risk Indian society is willing to accept to realise the promise of nuclear technology? The IAEA Nuclear Technology Review 2009 observed that the public acceptance index (PAI) of nuclear power in India has grown from around 60 per cent in 2005 to around 90 per cent during 2008 and ranked highest in the world. In the recent past, the protests at Kudankulam, following close after the one at Jaitapur, give the impression that all is not going well. Many assume that there will be a linear progression from public education to public understanding, further to public support for nuclear projects. But many educated persons also oppose nuclear power and have

DR SITAKANTA MISHRA

The writer is currently a Visiting Scholar at the Cooperative Management Centre of the Sandia National Laboratory, Albuquerque. He is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi and Associate Editor of the Indian Foreign Affairs Journal, New Delhi.

joined the anti-nuclear movement. There have been cases in Australia and the US where near-complete reactors have been halted by the weight of public opinion. Will India join this list?

Triad Of Factors

“Science, technology and society constitute a dynamically interactive triad” influencing each other in significant ways. The three are not passive partners but the question is regarding whether society always responds wisely to the scientific march and whether the evolution of technology is committed to the sustainability of society. Many countries such as China, Sweden, USA, South Korea, Japan, India etc are confronting today public opposition as the key issue when they try to expand or restart their nuclear plant operations. However, in very few countries have the anti-nuclear activists succeeded – not in America, France, Britain, South Africa, Brazil, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, China or Canada. And, it is expected that they will not prevail in Japan either. Germany is a dramatic exception. As far as India is concerned, its nuclear energy programme seems to be standing at the societal crossroads, mainly for triad of factors. First, the complex nature of nuclear technology itself which emit invisible radiation and to that extent, always the worst case scenario is aired by the media. Therefore, each time a problem related to nuclear technology takes place anywhere, a section of the media and the civil society draws baseless parallels to other

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

military robotics

FACT AND FICTION

“Science, technology and society constitute a dynamically interactive triad” influencing each other in significant ways. The three are not passive partners but the question is regarding whether society always responds wisely to the scientific march and whether the evolution of technology is committed to the sustainability of society programmes. We tend to forget that the nuclear risks, to a great extent are location and technology specific. The public panic based on the idea that ‘nuclear activity anywhere is a threat to humanity everywhere’ seems to be misplaced, overemphasised and in the process the specificities of India’s nuclear project are overlooked. Second, the image of the organisation that uses nuclear technology matters the most in building-up public confidence. For example, for the last few years, the misperception has been propagated in India that the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) that oversees the nuclear activities suffers from ‘regulatory capture’. Even the proposed new Nuclear Safety Regulatory Authority (NSRA) has been criticised as “a nuclear regulator without teeth”. Third, the collective integrity, competence and track record of those involved in the use of nuclear technology determines the degree of public trust. Though no major nuclear accidents have taken place yet, the allegations by the former Chairman of AERB Dr A Gopalakrishnan that Indian nuclear facilities have had “130 safety issues of which 95 are of top priority” gives an impression that all is not well inside Indian nuclear industry. But the fact that the Indian nuclear power programme has more than 380 reactor years of safe commercial operation is drowned out. Moreover, though we have visionary and competent nuclear scientists, probably we have not been able to bestow comparable stature to the current leaders of our nuclear community like we did to Homi Bhabha and others.

Nuclear Linear Progression

The anti-nuclear energy protests indicate that though the public is aware of India’s nuclear activities, it lacks the understanding of the technology and its beneﬁts. The political row over the Indo-US nuclear deal, the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Jaitapur and Kudankulam protests may imply relative decline of the PAI of nuclear energy in India in recent years. Nuclear opposition movements in India are getting institutionalised, for example, the Kudankulam protest is led by the People’s Movement Against Nuclear Energy (PMANE) and Jaitapur protest is led by the Konkan Vinashkari Prakalpa Virodhi Samiti (KVPVS) and the Janahit Seva Samiti. On this factor, the postmaterial school asserts that changes in social structures of modern societies with expansion of education, economic security and service sector give rise to postmaterial values – greater consciousness on social security, politics and environment, in other words, civil society consciousness. Within this framework, the linear progression of nuclear energy acceptance index in India can be demarcated into three phases. The Trust-based-Optimism phase (1947 to 1970s) – marks popular trust in stalwart nuclear scientists

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

and political leader Nehru during which nuclear projects were viewed as symbols of modernity prestige. The Doubt-based-Pessimism phase (1980s to 2000) – is marked with protests (Kaiga protest in October 1988), criticism for not producing the targeted energy and nuclear incidents both within and outside India (Three Mile Island 1979, Chernobyl 1986, Narora Fire 1993, Kakrapar Flooding 1994, Kaiga Containment Dome Collapse 1994). Exception was the brief period after India conducted the nuclear tests in 1998. The third phase (from 2001) – seems to be the Postmaterial-Support-Oppose phase where issues like environment, energy security, displacement, rehabilitation, government equation with foreign nations including safety security issues, are linked to support or opposition of nuclear projects. This phase will continue till the time either the government succumbs to the pressure and stops all nuclear activities which is unlikely or, till the time spectacular amount of cheap electricity from nuclear source becomes available to the public without any major nuclear accident.

Under The Veil

In the early years, activists like Anton Goma and Y David of the Anti-Nuclear Confederation organised rallies when the decision for the Kudankulam project was first mooted but barely made any impact on the villages. Even, in 1988, a cycle rally in Kudankulam organised by Gomas turned violent with villagers pelting the protestors with stones and chasing them out. Then the construction activities at site started in March 2002 and the first unit is expected to resume operation by December this year. All these years, the plant workers and the neighbouring villagers have been “living like a family and interacting regularly”. The scientific community has reached out to them on several occasions, explaining safety features of the Kudankulam nuclear power project and also of nuclear power, in general. Then what made the villagers, around 7,500 fishermen mainly Christians, suddenly doubt the project when it is about to resume operation? It is equally surprising how SP Udayakumar, the protest leader with a Master degree from USA and oratorical skills, has stepped up the pace of protests in the hamlets which until just two months ago believed that nuclear plants would bring them prosperity. And the pandals in front of the Roman Catholic churches with posters of the horrors of nuclear disaster seem to be an organised strategy by vested interest under the veil. Moreover, the local people might have been instigated not to accept an external cost of a project which will bring them insufficient benefits. Apprehensions have been raised about how nuclear plant would destroy their livelihood as it may harm the marine life. They should be made aware that around Kalpakkam and Tarapur the local population is able to continue with fishing without hindrance, rather the livelihood of the surrounding population has improved.

Fears Don’t Match Facts

Mainly three uncertainties involving nuclear energy prevail in the minds of the public which need straightforward answers: (1) is nuclear energy safe and secure?; (2) is nuclear energy cost-effective?; and (3) is nuclear energy environment friendly? There is no deﬁnite answer to

all these questions and the debate is dyadic. While the scientiﬁc establishment and supporters of nuclear energy are sanguine, some others are equally pessimistic on all these issues. At the outset while characterising nuclear energy, one must keep in mind the world has limited options to meet the growing energy demand. Disasters take place in the oil industry, people die and pollution spreads, but world has not abandoned oil. Rather all study what went wrong, try to ﬁx it and move on. Surprisingly, contrast is the case with nuclear disasters.

The postmaterial school asserts that changes in social structures of modern societies with expansion of education, economic security and service sector give rise to postmaterial values – greater consciousness on social security, politics and environment, in other words, civil society consciousness

In case of India, there is no major nuclear accident yet and it has many years of successful commercial nuclear power operation. Especially the VVER-1000 nuclear reactors at Kudankulam are of third generation design endowed with many advanced safety features than the Fukushima reactors that are of ﬁrst generation. Four heat exchanger systems are embedded into the reactors, though one such system is adequate. The level of the diesel generators, switch gear and controls are at adequate height. The ‘core catcher’ system – a matrix containing large amount of neutron absorbing substances like boron – will absorb the molten nuclear fuel, preventing a nuclear chain reaction in the event of an extreme accident.

nuclear energy expansion programme, the role of the state governments would be more determining than that of the central government as a chain of new nuclear facilities in different states are in the cart.

As far as cost-effectiveness of nuclear power in India is concerned, as a matter of policy, most of the plants are planned in places away from the coal belt; because thermal power would be more cost-effective there. Reportedly, the cost of solar energy at present is about Rs 20/kWh and cost of wind energy is Rs 10/kWh which is suitable only for about 20 per cent to 25 per cent of the time (when wind blows). On the other hand, nuclear power stations sell energy at Rs 1/kWh at Tarapur, Rs 3/kWh at Kaiga. Power from Kudankulam 1 and 2 will cost below Rs 3/ kWh. According to recent reports, the cost per unit produced out of the proposed JNPP is agreed between India and France at Rs 6, down from Rs 9.18 as quoted by Areva initially.

Certainly, people’s cognitive images are accompanied by feelings that generate important behavioural consequences normally based on the imagination of the worst case scenario. This can only be eradicated by bridging the existing gap between the scientiﬁc community and the public where the phenomena of ‘anti-nuclear fundamentalists’ and media exaggeration are active.

In terms of environmental implications, nuclear source would be friendlier than hydro and thermal. Safety and security wise, Indian nuclear plants have survived tsunamis and earthquakes. Indian nuclear plants in themselves are characterised by a high level of built-in safety, which makes them relatively less vulnerable to sabotage. Each facility is equipped with certain inbuilt security systems that can withstand eventualities without any outside intervention. The Indian PHWRs are designed with double containment domes. Security and safety begin right from the site selection stage and then all through the design stage of nuclear facilities. In the siting of a plant, rejection criteria and the zoning concept is followed that helps in enforcing emergency preparedness as well as periodic exercises. Around 22 emergency response centres have been established and the Central Industrial Security Force has trained four groups of First Responders to be activated in times of emergency. Certainly, there is always scope for improvement and India is open to draw lessons from global best practices.

‘Nuclear’ Is Not All Physics

Undoubtedly, as India marches ahead with its ambitious

Second, nuclear energy matters would involve more politics than the previous decades for the recurring anti-nuclear protests that are bound to crop up against such new projects. For example, the local election in Tamil Nadu has reﬂected the Kudankulam protest the same way as it happened over the Kaiga issue in 1989 when Dr Shivaram Karanth contested for Parliamentary election and was defeated.

In fact, the benefits accrued over the years out of nuclear energy programme in India needs vigorous propagation. For example, how TAPS has transformed the lives of the local people in Thane district (Maharashtra). Nearly 60 to 70 per cent claimants of the rehabilitation package there were fishermen. The people here have generated life-time assets and received life-time services like a school, post office, hospital, community centre, shops, electricity and housing enclaves (Popharan and Akarpatti villages located in the tribal areas). This does not mean that people have no right to ask questions and raise their concerns. After all it is public money spent on these mega projects. Public reluctance to believe information provided by the government indicates that while it is necessary, information supply alone is not sufficient. Measures to raise public confidence in institutions are also needed and this only can be done by ensuring good governance in the country. While citizens have the right to raise their concerns and their genuine concerns need to be addressed by the authorities adequately, the public need to rise to the occasion understanding the fact that the world has no longer any easy energy choices. On the other hand, the government must go the extra mile to convert the challenge of public resistance into an opportunity to wipe out public stigma keeping in mind that technological controversies are dynamic social process. Lastly, how quickly the benefits out of existing nuclear projects reach the common man will determine the pace of public support for new nuclear projects.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

global security

SUPRA-NATIONAL ENTITY?

EU’S SELF-IMAGE AS A SECURITY ACTOR

In-depth analyses of relationships with individual neighbours may reveal that pursuit of economic objectives have sometimes caused goals of a more normative nature to be relegated lower down the order of priorities. In the case of relations with China for instance this is observed in the inclination of member states to prioritise bilateral economic ties with China.

xisting research on perceptions of the EU as a security / foreign policy actor among emerging powers reveals an array of elite opinion. Studies speciﬁcally pertaining to perceptions of Indian elite suggest ﬁrst, a continued preference to “do business with” individual member states and second, lack of clarity over the mandate of EU institutions in the domain of foreign and security policy. This begs the question: “Does the EU perceive itself as a security actor?” “And who speaks for the EU in the domain of security?”

EU As An Antidote

The Union’s own evolution is premised on the principle that forging and fostering a collective identity is an effective antidote to violent resolution of inter-state conflict. In the external domain this line of thought has met with persistent conventional threats to security but also blurring of the lines between hard and soft security. This has prompted the EU’s Justice and Home Affairs and External Action Pillars to work out combined strategies for a consolidated response, giving rise to what has been termed as Cross-Pillar Security Regime. One of the most vivid expressions of cross-pillar involvement in defining the security regime has been the use of external assistance agreements to secure cooperation in combating terrorism. Through the European Security Strategy of 2003, argues Bendiek, the EU embraced a multi-dimensional understanding of security encompassing “poverty, pandemics and competition for natural or energy resources (…) alongside terrorism, international organised crime, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and regional conflicts such as inter alia in the Middle East”. An official document outlining the external dimensions of the Justice and Home Affairs Pillar tellingly states that “Addressing weak governance and state failure in third countries are key to breaking the vicious cycle of conflict, poverty and instability. There is as such an important relationship between Justice and Home Affairs and the Common Foreign and Security Policy, European Spatial Development Perspective and Development policies of the EU”.

Supra-national Foreign Policy

The European Council on Foreign Relations’ European Foreign Policy scorecard for 2012 demonstrates a trend towards renationalisation of European foreign policy. In the case of relations with China for instance this is observed in the inclination of member states to prioritise bilateral economic ties with China. The scorecard’s prognosis that the task of developing a common position on China has been left to EU institutions is, nonetheless, worthy of further investigation.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

It is interesting to note that EU-level pronouncements setting out the vision for engaging China situate the latter in a context of Asian rise and emerging multi-polarity and emphasise foremost issues related to China’s political system, respect for human rights and the philosophy that guides its pursuit of security interests. This despite the fact that the history of EU-China strategic partnership dates back to the EU-China trade and cooperation agreement of 1985. Moreover, even discussions about economic relations are couched in such terms as the establishment of an effective legal framework and adherence to WTO obligations at the sub-national level. Signiﬁcantly, such pronouncements as “the EU should continue to strongly support reform as an integral part of its trade and cooperation policies” long predate the renationalisation of foreign policy in the wake of the economic crisis. This seems to suggest that EU level attention to politico-military aspects of foreign relations, even as member states focus on the economic dimension may have been more a deliberate choice than an unintended marginalisation. Where EU-level actions are debated and in some cases mandated, it has been seen that member states demonstrating a supra-nationalist preference vary over time, whether by virtue of internal public opinion or as per speciﬁc domain of foreign policy under consideration. Thus, where Sweden and Poland are named increasingly as supporting European actions, a decline in the French interest in the same is frequently spoken of.

Instruments: Normative Actor?

The differentiated road map approach central to EU’s external policy entails a drive towards stability via greater regional integration inside a wider Europe. This theme of promoting regional pockets of stability through degrees of integration however also runs through EU’s engagement with the outside world. Theoretical writing in international relations and international political economy – much of it drawing on the EU as a case study – has identified stability in the international system as a fallout of closer economic ties and a convergent global economic order. Although the two rounds of eastern enlargement are hailed as the most exemplary foreign policy coup for the EU, the European Neighbourhood Policy is more instructive, being devoid of any promise of accession. Additionally it carries the advantage of having “got a fair deal of attention, although theory-informed studies have been relatively difficult to find”. The ENP builds on the experience of conditionality and socialisation to design action plans for Ukraine, Tunisia, Morocco, Moldova, Jordan, Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. Economic growth, political stability and cultural exchange are

the three key objectives that inform any strategy for EU partnerships with the wider neighbourhood. The quid pro quo inherent to this arrangement however, extends the promise of trade privileges to the ring of friends. As a result economic interests are sharply drawn into the equation, concretely identiﬁed as the four freedoms – free movement of persons, goods, services and capital. In-depth analyses of relationships with individual neighbours may reveal that pursuit of economic objectives have sometimes caused goals of a more normative nature to be relegated lower down the order of priorities. According to one such study “EU declarations on Russia are rife with normative intent, but revealed preference suggest these have been trumped by other goals, notably related to energy security and the penetration of Russian markets goals”. To the extent that these action plans emphasise free and fair conduct of elections, freedom of expression and rule of law, they serve as instruments of norm transfer. Where norm transfer has assumed the character of “socialisation”, the EU’s operative strategy has been to seek out allies from amongst pro-reform constituencies and inspire debate on values. Norm transfer embodied by the political conditionality element in the action plans however, has been observed to be constrained by such factors as “competing strategic and economic interests and intra-EU differences” of opinion among member states. With time, there has been a discernible trend towards selectively applying the experience of norm transfer gained closer home to inter-regional relationships. Some clues to the obvious question as to outcomes achieved by these programmes are to be found in the European Council on Foreign Relations’ scorecard. Within the complex web of relations with Russia, EU’s efforts at promoting Rule of Law and Human Rights and promoting Media Freedom in Russia receive Outcome Scores of 2 and 1 out of 10 respectively and stand out as areas where policy has met with lowest success rates. The verdict on Turkey is that against increasingly uncertain prospects for democratic consolidation there, “the EU has largely lost its leverage over domestic developments in Turkey”. Post-uprising interventions in MENA present a more mixed picture with partial success in Libya and Tunisia witnessed alongside relative inaction in Bahrain and Yemen coupled with divergent priorities and varying levels of willingness for supporting initiatives among EU member states. With respect to commitment to International Law and Multilateral Institutions, the verdict on the EU’s actions is mixed. On the one hand concerns “that the UN was acting too slowly to enact a binding International Bill of Rights” prompted coming into force of the European Convention on Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms in 1953. On the other, preponderance of realist concerns in the EU’s dealings with Syria and Russia for instance has, to some analysts, amounted to contravention of these commitments.

European Defence Industry

Pooling together of resources towards development of an EU-wide defence industry is informed by both internal ﬁscal exigencies and economic and security pressures felt in the global arena. JJ Andersson sets the issue in perspective by recalling that “with some 700,000 people employed and a contribution of around 2 per cent of EU GDP, the economic importance of the security and defence industry to European employment and exports should not be underestimated […]” The Economist describes the European defence industry as “organised largely on national lines” and “locked in a downward spiral of high costs, chronic over-capacity and declining military budgets” According to

SG Jones on the other hand, “a substantial amount of quantitative and qualitative data shows that European defence ﬁrms are increasingly collaborating with each other rather than the United States”. This is amply evident in joint development of combat aircraft, missile systems and transport and attack helicopters.

Intra-European Collaboration

KALYANI UNKULE According to the European The writer is Assistant Defence Agency, current pooling Professor and Assistant and sharing priorities chiefly Dean (Research and lie in the domains of air-to-air International Collaborations) refuelling, intelligence, surveillance at Jindal Global Law School, and reconnaissance, satellite Sonepat, Haryana communications, smart munitions and naval logistics. While much of this effort is directed at maintaining and gaining competitiveness vis-à-vis rival exporters of defence goods on the world market, it has also been couched in the rhetoric of self-sufficiency and justified in terms of obviating the need for external dependence, most notably on the United States. The fact that “in the post-cold war era, European defence firms have been almost twice as likely to pursue co-production and co-development projects with each other as with US firms and over three times more likely than with defence firms from other regions”, suggest that an evolving geopolitical context and strategic outlook is a key driver of intra-European collaboration. Moreover the backdrop of transatlantic defence ties itself appears uncertain with public debt in the US fanning expectations for greater burden sharing even as European allies downsize on outlays and full-time troop numbers. T Forsberg cites the “construction of Airbus A400M aircraft capable of strategic airlifting” as an instance of prevailing over US-manufactured competition in the form of Boeing’s C-17s. Thus while an enhanced European capability may eventually serve the cause of transatlantic burden sharing, in its current state the EU emerges as an inward-looking actor, trying to come to grips with the problems and prospects of the internal market. Article 346 of the Lisbon treaty allows member states to safeguard key strategic interests by offering protection to domestic production of defence equipment. To curb the protectionist tendencies that this may lead to The European Defence Agency is already encouraging discussion on regions as hubs of defence manufacturing in a bid to move away from a national focus. J Edwards envisages that “sharing more projects to reduce costs and avoid possible legal wrangling may eventually create an environment in which member states invest in shared capability clusters. On the flipside, political considerations and legacy and budgetary constraints of Central and Eastern European member states continue to impede the pace of collective capability development. I suggest in conclusion that observing the case of the EU allows us to pose two important questions back to theory. First, does an idealist vision necessarily discount the assumption of unequal power? And second, how does one reconcile the possibility of harnessing conventional instruments evocative of an anarchical state-based system with the (declaratory) ultimate goal of securing a liberal-idealist order? Thus I am arguing that despite its analytical status as a supra-national entity and its frequent association with the liberal paradigm, the EU as a case study confronts both sides of the theoretical divide with interesting conundrums.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

stealth technology

AEROSPACE

Stealth technology is now the basis of modern air warfare. Some experts believe that the US is designing and developing the 6th generation technology to fulfil the future aspirations. Japan wanted to buy F-22 joint strike aircraft but US government had banned the export of the aircraft to safeguard secrets of the aircraft's technology. This rejection motivated Japan to develop its own modern fighter, which would be equipped with stealth features and other advanced systems. The Indo-Russian FGFA performance capabilities exceed those of all existing aircraft worldwide.

secret stealth aircraft F-XX and some experts believe that the US is designing and developing the 6th generation technology to fulﬁl the future aspirations, in which US has already poured millions of dollars in the initial stages.

Japan

Japan is developing the Mitsubishi ATX-D Shinshin as a tech-demonstrator with the first flight planned for 2014. Japan wanted to buy F-22 joint strike aircraft for its fleet but US government had banned the exporting of the aircraft in order to safeguard secrets of the aircraft’s technology. This rejection motivated Japan to develop its own modern fighter, which would be equipped with stealth features and other advanced systems. At the same time Japan has already committed to buy 42 F-35s from US.

Russia

tealth technology is also known as LO Technology (low-observable technology). In the ‘defensive task’ stealth aircraft are needed to operate in maintaining local air defence (AD) environment. To achieve air dominance over the battlefield and in the ‘offensive task’ these aircraft are needed to counter airborne and surface-based air defence of high value ground targets. These aircraft are also required in reconnaissance missions. Development of stealth technology began in Germany during WWII with the Horten HO-229. The US is the only country to have used stealth aircraft in combat. These deployments include the United States invasion of Panama, the first Gulf War, the Kosovo Conflict, the War in Afghanistan, the War in Iraq and the 2011 military intervention in Libya. The first use of stealth aircraft was in the US invasion of Panama, where F-117 Nighthawk stealth attack aircraft were used to drop bombs on enemy airfields and positions while evading enemy radar. The US is the only country in the world that is operating stealth aircraft. Half a dozen of countries today are making aircraft with stealth technology. They include the US, Japan, Russia, South Korea, China and India. Stealth technology is now the basis of modern air warfare. As India is a rising power in Asia Pacific and has multiple security threats, IAF too has made out a case for stealth multirole capabilities in its inventory to cater for future threats. India has embarked on

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

projects of the magnitude not attempted before including the FGFA (JV with Russia), advanced medium combat aircraft (AMCA), autonomous unmanned research aircraft (AURA). Cutting edge technologies would be required for the development of stealthy aircraft, which include structure, engine and avionics. Learning from the past and present development lessons and with help of private companies, it would be somewhat easier to achieve. The absence of stealth technology in IAF inventory will vanish by 2024 and stealth technology will have a superior role in strengthening the IAF ﬂeet to 42 squadrons in 2024.

United States

The US air stealth infantry has its ambitious F-35 multi-role stealth ﬁghter programme, which would be deployed in multi-role variants including F-35A with conventional take-off and landing capability, F-35B with short take-off and vertical landing capability and F-35C for operation from aircraft carriers. The F-35 is needed to replace a host of long serving combat aircraft such as the F-16 Fighting Falcon, A-10 Thunderbolt II, AV-8B, F/A-18 Hornet, Harrier II that are nearing the end of their service life. It is now expected to enter service in 2016. The Pentagon’s plan to buy 2,443 F-35s and for foreign sales the order could exceed 3,150 aircraft. While US F-22, B-2 and the F-117 were used very effectively in the Gulf War 1991, the US is also having a wide range of stealth UCAVs in service. As per leaked reports US is also working on

The Sukhoi PAK FA is a Fifth Generation multi-role aircraft intended to compete directly with the American Lockheed F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II. The Sukhoi T-50 is the prototype for the PAK FA. The Sukhoi PAK FA is a twin-engine jet fighter being developed by Sukhoi for the Russian Air Force. The flight-test aircraft are powered by the same Saturn 117S engine that is installed in the Su-35 and this will also be the engine for the initial production batches of the T-50. The PAK FA first flew in January 2010. The Russian Ministry of Defence is planning to finish flight testing with eight prototypes by 2015, before moving into production in 2016. The PAK FA is intended to be the successor to the Su-27 and MiG-29. Russia is also working on stealth UCAV the MiG Skat (Manta Ray). MiG’s experience on this project will be merged with that of the Sukhoi Design Bureau in developing the Skat UCAV. It is to be noted that only the US and Russia have the capability to develop this type of aircraft with associated weapons, sensors and engines.

China

J-20 and J-31, China’s first two stealth fighters, are still in the developmental stages. However secret regarding the nation’s fifth generation fighters and bombers too, has been released by the Chinese military websites, the fighters J-23, J-25 and bomber version of J-31 have been revealed on Chinese military websites, reports the Chinese languages news portal qianzhan. The J-23 fighter, designed by the Shenyang Aviation Corporation, is no longer on an aircraft based on the Russian technology, the report said. It provides PLA Navy and PLA Air Force a better chance to combat American fighters in a potential conflict. According to the leaked details, Shenyang Corporation has instead chosen a model of J-23 based on American F-22 Raptor of the USAF. The J-23 has longer fuselage and two V shaped vertical tails which look similar to the F-22 Raptor. Meanwhile, J-25 is the China’s fourth stealth

fighter designed by the Chengdu Aviation Corporation nicknamed as “ghost bird”. Analysts claim that J-25’s primary mission is to counter US and its allies in the space over the western Pacific as China’s future carrier based fighter. There is a huge possibility that Pakistan too will buy these fighters from China. It will pose another security threat and will help China-Pak in their two front war against India.

SHANTANU K BANSAL

The writer is an independent analyst. His research areas (analysing) cover modernisation of Indian armed forces and future national security threats. He specialises in external security threats, modern weaponology and future warfare.

India: FGFA / Su-T-50

The FGFA (Fifth generation fighter aircraft) originated from the T-50 PAK-FA, now being referred to as the Perspective Multirole fighter (PMF). IAF has suggested 40-45 improvements to be made in the Russian PAK-FA to meet Indian needs. These changes were then formally agreed upon between joint venture of India’s HAL and Russia’s Sukhoi. India will invest over US$ 5 billion to develop the FGFA and Russia will invest a similar amount. The total cost of joint Russian-Indian development of FGFA is US$ 12 billion; this amount was analysed by the official representative of Center of Analysis of World Arms Trade (CAWAT). Equipment share in end product that is in series aircraft will be 60 per cent by Russia, 40 per cent by India respectively. Many experts say that

India has entered the global race of stealth technology with its AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft) programme. Apart from the ongoing FGFA programme with Russia, India is investing for its indigenous stealth aircraft. It is notable that the project was stopped in 2012 due to urgency of LCA project, but was re-started in end of 2013. Apart from China, India is the only country in the world to carry two stealth programmes at a time that have been revealed to public the figure should be 50-50. Cost escalation is aggravated by the several changes in the number and configurations of the FGFA. The IAF initially projected a requirement for 166 single seat and 48 twin-seat aircraft but now reportedly reduced this number to 144 aircraft, all single-seat. Russia wants to manufacture more than 1,000 T-50 aircraft. For India and Russia the number would be 200+ and 600 for 3rd world countries. The first integrated engine was AL 41F1 turbofan engines in prototypes with 147kN (33,047 Ibs) thrust each but the production engine requires 157KN+ (34,620+ Ibs) thrust. With the new plan, a newer engine (NPO Saturn/FNPTS MMPP Salyut of

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

stealth technology

AEROSPACE

107KN in cruise and 175KN thrust in afterburner), with improved performance, reduced weight and life cycle costs is scheduled to be integrated to the fuselage in 2014. It will be integrated with long range air-to-air and air-to-land missiles and can carry nuclear warheads. The weapons load will include the Indian designed Astra and BrahMos III (AshM) type of missiles. The first Indian manufactured PMF will fly in 2022, with deliveries to the IAF to follow thereafter. FGFA will be more stealthy, much better than PAKFA. The T-50 is superior to its foreign analogues in terms of its maximum speed in afterburner and standard modes, maximum range and thrust-to-weight ratio. The Russian Air Force Commander said that despite the comparable dimensions and weight of the Chinese J-20 Black Eagle and the F-22 Raptor, the T-50 has much shorter take-off and landing runs. Moreover, its on-board equipment has better specifications than its foreign equivalents. On paper, the FGFA performance capabilities exceed those of all existing aircraft worldwide. With such type of magnificent capability this will be a game changer aircraft for India and its security.

Indian AMCA

India has entered the global race of stealth technology with its AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft) programme. Apart from the ongoing FGFA programme with Russia, India is investing for its indigenous stealth aircraft. It is notable that the project was stopped in 2012 due to urgency of LCA project, but was re-started in end of 2013. Apart from China, India is the only country in the world to carry two stealth programmes at a time that have been revealed to public. Although picture is not clear that can differentiate between roles of the two aircraft, as developing both the programmes to an air superiority stealth aircraft does not make sense. But one thing is for sure India wants to produce a multirole ﬁghter aircraft rather than a strike optimised plane with advanced air-to-air capabilities, just like F-22 Raptor. The total development of the programme seeks US$ 2 billion of funding and an initial investment of Rs 100 crore has been granted to it for initial phase developments. ACMA is a twin engine, single seat Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft to counter the J-31 and J-20 stealth aircraft of China. The programme is using the valuable advancements in jet technology achieved while designing

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

LCA Tejas and JV of T-50. A naval version of the jet will also be developed as navy has also contributed in the project. The approximate weight of the aircraft will be 16-18 tonnes with an internal weapon bay capacity of 2 tonnes and internal fuelling of 4 tonnes. ADA has so far planned to use GTRE (Gas Turbine Research Establishment) state of the art GTX 35VS Kaveri engine which is still in its development stage, but is expected to get delivered in the later part of this decade with all its glitches eliminated. The aircraft will reach up to Mach 1.8 in speed with a ceiling of 15 km+. With aerodynamic optimisation completed the broadscale picture is drawn. It is expected to make its maiden flight in 2020 with introduction in Air Force by 2022; although the configuration finalisation is expected to finish early in 2018. Aircraft will be equipped with DRDO Astra missiles, AESA radars and other modern electronic warfare systems. SAAB is providing technical consultancy to ADA.

fter many rounds of discussions India and Myanmar have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on border co-operation that will enhance and accelerate the exchange of information between their security agencies and lead to coordinated patrols on their respective land and maritime boundaries by the armed forces of both the neighbouring countries. India and Myanmar have agreed to exchange information in the ﬁght against insurgency, arms smuggling, drug and human and wildlife trafﬁcking etc.

The ADA which is spearheading the AMCA mission is already promising ﬁghter aircraft studded with next-gen technologies. AMCA will be a multi-role ﬁghter, which will also have adequate strike capability with emphasis on critical opening day missions like SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defence), DEAD (Destruction of Enemy Air Defence) and precision strikes.

AURA Of India

Already drones, or unmanned air vehicles, are changing the nature of air power with their ability to strike targets without endangering pilot lives. UCAVs are bigger, 8-10 tonne drones, akin to strike fighters in their ability to carry heavy weaponry including bombs, rockets and missiles. Since they are piloted by remote control, they can be built lighter, stealthier and sent on even the most risky missions. With the success in various indigenised UAV technologies, India is indigenously designing and developing aircraft AURA (Autonomous Unmanned Research Aircraft). It is an autonomous unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV), being developing by the DRDO for the Indian Air Force and later for naval role also. The design work on the UCAV is to be carried out by Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA). Details of the project are classified. The AURA will be a tactical stealth aircraft, capable of releasing missiles, bombs and precision-guided munitions. The programme is in its project definition stage.

Xi Jinping against terrorism

Indo-Myanmar pact on border co-operation Sharif for peaceful neighbourhood

ddressing a conference of Pakistani envoys recently, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said that his country is committed to engaging with India for the peaceful resolution of all outstanding issues including Kashmir through sustained dialogue. He said that his government believed that the main dynamic in South Asia should be co-operation and not confrontation.

he Chinese president Xi Jinping demanded ‘decisive’ action against terrorism after a bomb and slashing attack at a Xinjiang railway station killed 3 people and injured 79 while he was on an ofﬁcial tour of the far western region. People’s Daily newspaper has reported that 2 of those killed were probably suicide bombers.

Merkel calls Putin to resolve Ukraine crisis

erman Chancellor Angela Merkel called Russian President Vladimir Putin and asked him to help free European military observers who were being held by pro-Russian militia in Ukraine. Putin told Merkel that the withdrawal of Ukrainian military units from the south-east of the country, ending violence and launching a national dialogue are key issues to resolve the imbroglio.

LAC meeting points

ndia and China have identiﬁed four locations along the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh as emergency meeting points for their troops to avoid untoward escalations and resolve any face-off situations. India and China had last year signed the Border Defence Co-operation Agreement and since then both sides have been evolving mechanism to maintain peace and tranquillity along the borders.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

military robotics

LASER BASED DEFENCE SYSTEM Short Range Fifth Layer

However, there has not been any clarification whether the Iron Beam system would be a part of Israel’s missile defence system, that is, whether it would be the fifth layer of the integrated missile defence system, or whether it would be a “stand alone”platform. However, many news reports have confirmed that it would be the fifth layer of the integrated missile defence system. The drones, mortar bombs and short range rocket warheads are destroyed by superheating them with the lasers. Hence, the threat from artillery could be countered by these systems. Throughout the research and development process of missile defence system, there has always been an effort given to defend military forces from artillery weapons. The threat from artillery was also realised by the United States. As the US worked towards developing National Missile Defence and Theatre Missile Defence, they also worked towards developing a system to counter threats from rocket, artillery and mortars which was called the Tactical High Energy Laser, the Skyguard. The Israeli Iron Beam system is expected to “enter the fleet” between 2017 and 2021 and is reported to provide “granular protection.” Unlike the Iron Dome which would launch “radar-guided interceptor rockets”, the Iron Beam’s laser “will superheat the warheads of shells at ranges of up to 7 km.”

Gain For India?

ISRAEL’S ‘STAR WARS’ TECHNOLOGY SHOULD INDIA CONSIDER THE SYSTEM? The Israeli Iron Beam system is expected to “enter the fleet” between 2017 and 2021 and is reported to provide “granular protection.” Unlike the Iron Dome which would launch “radar-guided interceptor rockets”, the Iron Beam’s laser “will superheat the warheads of shells at ranges of up to 7 km.”

srael is reportedly concentrating on laser based defence system capable of shooting missiles “with a pulse of energy.” This laser based defence system is called the Iron Beam and is being developed to compensate for the limitations of the Israeli Iron Dome. The Iron Beam is reported to be able to intercept rockets, mortars and drones which may not stay in the air long enough for the Iron Dome to intercept them. Hence, the new missile will be an added asset to the Israeli missile defence system. More importantly, this Iron Beam system would enable Tel Aviv to deploy a foolproof mechanism for defence ranging from systems which can intercept missiles of longer ranges, to systems which can intercept short range rockets and ballistic missiles

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

and now systems which can intercept at even shorter ranges weapon systems like mortars and rockets that have a very short trajectory. Its ability to be able to ﬁre multiple lasers against targets could enable it to successfully take on several targets simultaneously. The laser is a solid state one and the system is mobile. It is reported to be consisting of air defence radar, a command and control unit (C2) and two HEL systems. Even though it is reported to be a truck mounted system currently, however, in future, it could be mounted on armoured vehicle too. The Iron Beam is expected to be a cost effective system unlike the other missile defence systems being developed by Israel.

Indiahasbeenworkingonitsindigenousballisticmissiledefence system under the DRDO. This missile defence is a two tier missile defence system capable of endo-atmospheric interception and exo-atmospheric interception. The Prithvi Air Defence system intercepts missiles at high altitudes while the Advanced Air Defence system is used to intercept missiles at low altitudes. The PAD and the AAD at present use the Israeli Green Pine Radar. India also plans to develop missile defence capable of intercepting missiles at altitude of more than 150 km. In 2014, there were also reports that India and Israel have agreed to collaborate to develop integrated missile defence system in order to counter missile threats, both nuclear and conventional.

Cost Effective

As is a known fact that the future conﬂicts between India and Pakistan would be limited in nature in which artillery will play a crucial role for not only India but Pakistan too. Hence, India would be subjected to threats from artillery as it has always been in every conﬂict fought with Pakistan. If the Iron Beam system is successfully developed, New Delhi could think of availing the technology from Israel. This would not only save the cost of developing such a system, but would also provide New Delhi a readily made defence system to be able to counter RAM (rocket, artillery and mortar). This system is also reported to be capable of

According to Rafael’s Senderovits Ezra, “missile defence systems are hugely expensive”, however, with the Iron Beam system, “each shot costs almost nothing and there are no real limits on the number of shots” that can be taken

countering threats from mortars by calculating their trajectories and destroying them in the air itself which could be a limitation in the Iron Dome. According to Rafael’s Senderovits Ezra, “missile defence systems are hugely expensive”, however, with the Iron Beam system, “each shot costs almost nothing and there are no real limits on the number of shots” that can be taken. In 2012, India had shown keen interest in the Israeli Iron Dome in order to be able to successfully intercept rocket threats from Pakistan and also non-state actors. However, in 2013, the Indian Air Force had already lost interest in the Iron Dome claiming that it was not “suitable” for the service. It is only a matter of time to see if Indian armed forces would be interested in the new system given that our requirements and weather conditions are different. India has instead shown interest in acquiring the David Sling.

DEBALINA GHOSHAL

The writer is Associate Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies, Western Air Command. She is MA in International Studies from Stella Maris College, Chennai and PG Diploma in International Humanitarian Law from NALSAR, Hyderabad, India. Areas of interest: Missiles and artillery. Presently she is working on “Role of Missiles in International Security.”

Israeli Green Pine Radar

Moreover, even though solid state laser defence systems are not as powerful as chemical based defence systems, the solid based laser defence systems are well suited for varied defence missions which include destroying incoming threats to identifying targets. It can also perform air defence missions as well as mine destruction, protection of ships and also be useful in electronic warfare. Hence, ﬁeld logistics and operations can become simpler and can be launched from varied platforms like air, sea, land and also space based platforms. The system will also be less hazardous as compared to chemical based defence systems. However, before any decision is made regarding the induction of any missile defence system, thorough tests need to be performed in order to check if the system is adaptable to Indian weather conditions and can cater to Indian threat requirements. Moreover, in 2002, the United States blocked the Arrow anti-missile system sale to India since it did not want a non-satellite state to gain access to secrets of crucial military technologies. Thus, acquiring missile defence system from Israel would be attached with political strings which New Delhi must be capable of dealing with.

June 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

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