DSA May 2014

India’s

Alienated Neighbours

And Homeland Security

Games They Play

editor-in-chief

DSA is as much yours, as it is ours!

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ince independence in 1947 India has remained locked in a sapping bind with its neighbours over territorial matters or internal politics. The fact that local politics in all South Asian countries is influenced by relations with the neighbours is testimony to the long held belief that political separation does not necessarily mean psychological or emotional distancing. In fact the opposite is true and despite political boundaries separating countries, each still feels a perplexing connection to the other. This connection is by no means an entirely positive phenomenon wherein the other country harbours goodly feelings for its neighbour. The history of South Asia since 1947 in fact points to other direction, wherein neighbours have harmed each other only so as to spite the other.

In some form or the other India has ongoing territorial disputes with each of its neighbours barring Bhutan and Maldives. The disagreements with the People’s Republic of China and Pakistan are of course the more well known and publicly reported ones. But there are niggling disputes with every neighbour. With Nepal there is a river boundary matter that keeps cropping up and souring the mood every once in a while. There are the enclaves between India and Bangladesh that bedevil relations, just as fishing disputes occur regularly with Sri Lanka. However long-standing and deep-rooted these issues may be and whatever be their justification, none of them impact relations in as fundamental a manner as have the disputes with Pakistan and China.

India and Pakistan remain subjects of domestic politics in either of the countries. Both tend to frequently crop up in political debates in either country, most times negatively but occasionally in a neutral manner, if not positive.

The separation of 1947 has done little to dampen the passions that exist between the two countries. Most times the passions have been deployed to harm the other country, but there have been moments when the passions have created a positive atmosphere. The diplomatic initiative of 1999 by former Prime Minister Vajpayee is of course the most vivid of such examples. His decision to journey by bus to Lahore was both a sensational political statement as well as an historically important international declaration. That it was not to be, alas, only points to the recurring theme of these relations – wherein alienated neighbours play games to harm the other country.

India-Pakistan relations are of course the classic example of this alienated relationship and the harm that has been brought to bear on the other. The constant threat of terrorism culminated in the brutal Mumbai attacks of 2008. That ghastly incident is the epitome of how low this relationship can sink. There have been numerous incidents before Mumbai 2008 and there have been incidents after that as well and quite possible that there will be in future too. But none caught the global imagination as much as Mumbai did in 2008. It had audacity, brutality, criminality and death all rolled into episode. At that time it really reflected the nature of the Indo-Pak relationship and the immense cruelties possible whilst playing negative games. Before Mumbai and since then, thousands of lives have been lost to terrorist violence in India and Pakistan. Much as it played the game in India, Pakistan had to deal with the blowback within its own boundaries too. And the blowback has been intense, causing a reappraisal of its policies on use of terror as a policy tool. The prevailing mood will hopefully be a lasting one.

Much the same can be said for the other neighbours too. Once a safe haven for terrorists from the north-eastern states Bangladesh too has transformed its policies drastically. ULFA, publicly known to have been headquartered there, is now on the run. This change of heart and policies in Bangladesh points to a brighter future between the two countries.

And pretty much the same can be said for Myanmar where some of the other north-eastern groups find a safe haven.

Changes in Myanmar politics has impacted the viability of these groups surviving there. All of these changes portend good for the future. After all homeland security is dependent on having sound policies and neighbours not playing games. When they do it only brings bloodshed, for both. Better sense seems to be prevailing, for the time being.

Manvendra Singh May 2014 Defence AnD security Alert

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sneak peek

publisher's view

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Volume 5 Issue 8 May 2014 Chairman Shyam Sunder Publisher and CEO Pawan Agrawal Editor-in-chief Manvendra Singh Director Shishir Bhushan Corporate consultant KJ Singh Art consultant Divya Gupta Central Saint Martins College Of Art & Design, University Of Arts, London

Alienated Neighbours Vitiate Peace and Progress

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very important commandment of Indian philosophy says that “neighbours should be nice and cooperative for progress and a peaceful life”.

This edict applies to an individual, as well as to a state. Being at peace is a mandatory basic requisition for coexistence, development and growth. It is our responsibility to ensure the same to the best of our ability.

Having said this, I have to admit that Peace at any cost is pyrrhic and the corollary is equally true: Appeasement does not pay! Yielding to the pressures of achieving Peace is inversely proportional to its ultimate realisation.

Corporate communications Mamta Jain

The same phenomenon applies to all the neighbouring countries of India too. India is a peace-loving and peace-propagating country. We have been sincerely trying to maintain cordial and bilateral relations with all the neighbours but unfortunately our efforts have not been reciprocated with most of them creating malicious hurdles in our democratic process for progress after independence.

Representative (USA) Steve Melito Representative (J and K) Salil Sharma

Major concerns are with Pakistan and China who act with collusive intent; one to grab territory and the other to break this monolithic multi-cultural, multi-ethnic nation-state “into twenty-thirty pieces” as one of its ideologues has written. The intention and ambition is geostrategic dominance and hegemony.

Correspondent (Europe) Dominika Cosic Production Dilshad and Dabeer

Announces June 2014 Issue on

Islamic fundamentalism is affecting the whole Asian-Pacific region with Afghanistan-Pakistan as the epicentre. The acts of massive terrorism are conducted under the tutelage of the Pakistan Army Inter-Services Intelligence and the civilian government. Pakistan itself is now facing the backlash.

China, the most powerful neighbour, has been bullying us for the past few years after witnessing India’s progress in the Asian region. It is not happy with the progress India is making and the ascending stature of India in the comity of nations. Its defence forces create unnecessary problems at our international borders and its exhibited support to Pakistan and Bangladesh directly and indirectly is a major nuisance factor in relations with India. We all know how it has been involved with Pakistan by providing them all the arms and ammunition and training their troops which is a cover to train the jihadi terrorists within the Pakistan Army. The same game plan is sub rosa in effect in Bangladesh as well.

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Editor: Manvendra Singh

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We are in a phase of benevolence with our immediate neighbour on the east, Bangladesh, which has been possible only under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina who remembers with gratitude India’s role in delinking East Pakistan to create Bangladesh in 1971. She has reciprocated by handing over Indian terrorists who had acquired sanctuaries in that country under inimical Bangladeshi leaders of the past. One can only wish her a long (and happy) innings because it is certain to be followed by the deluge of Islamic fundamentalism. As of now their people cross borders and the most illegal migrants are from Bangladesh who are mostly involved in terrorist and criminal activities. Their women are working illegally in India as maids with their fake identities as Indians acquiring Indian names and spreading all across India from Jammu and Kashmir to Kerala. A large number of Bangladeshi citizens have obtained valid identities as Indian nationals. Fake currency and drugs are circulated mostly by the citizens of Bangladesh in India.

All these activities have been affecting our internal security very adversely.

Renowned experts from Defence and Security arena have highlighted in this edition the threats posed to Indian security by our neighbours, impelling our security forces to safeguard the sanctity and security of its territory and its people from all mischief being perpetrated by them.

We in team DSA are sanguine that we have managed to put together a collector’s edition for all those who share our concern for the safety and security of our motherland. Exclusive interviews of the Swedish Ambassador in India, His Excellency Harald Sandberg and the Commissioner of Delhi Police, Mr Bhim Sain Bassi IPS add lustre and value to our efforts. Happy reading!

Jai Hind!

May 2014 Defence AnD security Alert

Pawan Agrawal

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contents

INDIA'S ALIENATED NEIGHBOURS A R T I C L E S

AND HOMELAND SECURITY GAMES THEY PLAY

Centripetal Consequences Dr Ajai Sahni

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Containing The Maoist Menace Lt Gen Dalip Bhardwaj PVSM, VSM (Retd)

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Role Of States In Indian Foreign Policy Amb Ashok Sajjanhar Anuradha Sajjanhar

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Grand Design: Encirclement Of India Maj Gen AK Hukku YSM (Retd)

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India’s Challenge Dr Harsh V Pant

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India’s Troubled Neighbourhood Maj Gen Dipankar Banerjee AVSM (Retd)

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Define And Deal With Terrorism Joginder Singh IPS

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Managing Illegal Migrants Dr Amit Ranjan

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Emerging External And Internal Scenarios Brig (Dr) Anil Sharma (Retd) Anshu Paliwal

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Analysing Pakistan’s Strategy Towards India Dr Shalini Chawla

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Enhancing Maritime Security Across Oceans Dr Vijay Sakhuja

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India Needs An Effective Counter Strategy Saloni Salil

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Protect Interests In Indian Ocean Region Radhakrishna Rao

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Five Issues That Are Determinants Sana Hashmi

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Myanmar And Bangladesh Utopian Hopes And Silver Linings Lt Col Rajiv Ghosh SM (Retd)

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India And The BIMSTEC Rahul Mishra

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Geostrategic Importance Of Nepal Team DSA

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Contents SPECIAL ISSUE MAY 2014

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THE RED CORRIDOR

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Vo l u m e 5 I s s u e 8 M a y 2 0 1 4

F E A T U R E S

Sneak Peek

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EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW His Excellency Harald Sandberg Ambassador of Sweden

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ORISSA

MAHARASHTRA

CHHATTISGARH

ANDHRA PRADESH

10 Pakistan

Nepal

Bangladesh

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@dsalert

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EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW Mr Bhim Sain Bassi IPS Commissioner of Police Delhi

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TRIBUTE Late Shri KF Rustamji Defence and Security Industry Monitor Security Round-up Get Connected

39 61 66 71

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international relations

interVieW

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

WITH HIS EXCELLENCY

Harald Sandberg

Ambassador of Sweden to India

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weden and India are vibrant democracies and free market economics having excellent bilateral relations. India and Sweden enjoy flourishing trade and commerce partnership built on mutual interests and respect for each other’s laws and traditions. Here in an exclusive interview with DSA the Swedish Ambassador His Excellency Harald Sandberg expounds his vision and views on the dynamic bilateral and global scenarios.

Defence and Security Alert: Diplomatic relations between India and Sweden were established in 1949.

Since then we have enjoyed warm and cordial bilateral relations based on shared democratic values. Please enlighten us how these relations have developed and the significant milestones during this interesting and eventful journey.

Harald Sandberg: Relations between India and Sweden are excellent, as you rightfully point out. Let me take a step back in time, to a real milestone one hundred years ago, when Rabindranath Tagore as the first non-European received the Nobel Prize for literature.

Tagore didn’t travel to Sweden for the Nobel banquet, but he went on two occasions in the 1920s. Later, when India gained independence, we quickly established diplomatic relations. Another example that comes to mind is Indira Gandhi’s visit to Sweden in 1972 to attend the “Stockholm Conference”, the first UN conference on environment.

Today, Sweden and India enjoy broad-based relations, stretching from dialogues on cyber and foreign policy to cooperation on trade, innovation and defence. This is also reflected in the large number of bilateral visits on a ministerial and parliamentary level exchanged yearly.

Sweden also benefits from the many highly-skilled Indian workers coming to Sweden and we are proud of the fact that Indian students are the largest non-European group studying at Swedish universities.

DSA: India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world but economic cooperation between India and Sweden is not commensurate with the potential that exists. What is your government doing to encourage Swedish companies to venture out and increase their participation and share in investment, joint ventures, trade and commerce?

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Harald Sandberg: Well, I believe the economic cooperation between India and Sweden to be quite extensive actually, even if we’re of course always striving to deepen the exchange. Swedish companies have had a presence for long in India – Ericsson was established here already in 1903 – and by now around 170 Swedish companies are established in India and around 800 companies trade with India. India is the 20th most important trading partner for Sweden, while Sweden is the 51st most important trading partner for India. Our bilateral trade reached US$ 2.1 billion in 2013. Also, we mustn’t forget that the EU is the most important source of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in India. Swedish FDI assets in India amounted to US$ 1.8 billion at the end of 2012 and Sweden is the 16th most important source of FDI for India country-wise.

The Swedish Chamber of Commerce in India (SCCI) conducts a survey every year among the Swedish companies present in India. The last survey (from mid-2013) shows that, despite the slowdown of the international and Indian economy, 8 out of 10 companies will increase their operations here within the coming three years. The government of Sweden together with national authorities, such as Business Sweden, provides support and encouragement to Swedish companies that wish to establish themselves or expand their operations in India. Likewise for Indian companies that wish to invest in Sweden. Last year a Swedish Consulate General’s office opened in Mumbai, stepping up efforts in this regard. There is potential to deepen economic relations in various sectors, such as in life science, electricity transmission through smart grid, transport sector (buses, trucks, automotive and railways), single-brand retail, defence and ICT. DSA: There is a massive modernisation and induction drive by the Indian defence and security forces and Sweden is home to some of the best defence and security industries. What kind of synergies and collaborations have been established or are in the pipeline between Indian and Swedish companies?

Harald Sandberg: Yes, the ongoing modernisation of the Indian defence is indeed impressive and I’m absolutely convinced that Swedish world-class technology and expertise can continue to be of great value in this process.

Several large Swedish-based defence companies like SAAB and BAE-divisions like Hägglunds are already

His Excellency Harald Sandberg admiring the latest issue of DSA

One mustn’t forget that the EU is the world’s largest economic entity and open internal market and one that shares many common values with democratic countries like India. I believe that there’s great potential for increased political and economic cooperation between the EU and India established here in India and are involved in joint ventures with Indian companies such as Mahindra, Pipavav Shipyard and others. More Swedish companies are bound to follow in the near future. We also have a bilateral MoU on Defence which includes not only Service to Service interaction but also defence-industry cooperation and R&D within specific areas. Sweden has transformed a largely state-owned defence industry into a privately owned industry which is now very successful on the global market. Our willingness to share our experience in this regard as well as our openness to technology transfer and joint R&D could definitely benefit India.

Another thing that comes to mind when thinking of potential future areas of cooperation is the Swedish

Gripen fighter with its low life cycle costs and its great possibility for future upgrades both regarding aeronautics and weapons. Given India’s close multilateral cooperation with Gripen-countries South-Africa and Brazil, one could imagine added values such as reduced initial cost for procurement, joint maintenance and pilot-training for instance, should India choose to invest in Gripen. That said, the Swedish industry develops and manufactures equipment within all fields and domains including C4I, Surface ships, conventional air independent submarines, artillery and armoured vehicles to mention a few sectors of potential interest to India.

DSA: What are your views on the emerging geopolitical and geostrategic scenario and the role of the United Nations and India’s bid for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council? How can India and Sweden work together to encourage and facilitate peaceful coexistence?

Harald Sandberg: Like India, Sweden is a strong supporter of the UN and an advocate for a strengthened role for the organisation. We’re a major donor to the UN and actually one of the few countries that meet and surpass the UN development assistance goal of 0.7 per cent of GNI. We also put great emphasis on the

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international relations

interVieW He’s been clear about the Russian military intervention being a breach of international law, in particular of the prohibitions of aggression, use of force and non-intervention. Together with the rest of the EU as well as with other partners, we’re now exploring ways to further support Ukraine.

It’s important that the agreement in Geneva is now actually implemented.

DSA: India is Sweden’s third largest trade partner in Asia. We have a very active Joint Economic Commission (JEC) but still this ranking is not improving as fast as it should. What new areas has JEC identified to give a fillip to the Bilateral Institutional Dialogue Mechanism?

Harald Sandberg: The last Joint Economic Commission meeting took place in late 2012 in Delhi and was led by Minister for Commerce and Industry, Anand Sharma and Swedish Minister for Enterprise Annie Lööf with the purpose to review the trade related relationship. Both sides were very satisfied with the continued increase in trade and investment flows between the two countries over the last decade.

The meeting confirmed the fruitful collaboration between governments through Memoranda of Understanding within various sectors, apart from defence, such as health, new and renewable energy, science and technology, and environment. The MoUs provide an excellent platform for collaboration and exchange on best practices and knowledge between the two governments and national authorities.

His Excellency Harald Sandberg with Mr Pawan Agrawal, Publisher and CEO of DSA magazine importance of the UN peacekeeping operations. In fact some 80,000 Swedes have served in UN operations over the years. Given India’s substantial contribution to the UN peacekeeping forces, which we’re impressed by and grateful for, there should be ample opportunities for us to work together in this field.

As for UN reform, Sweden does support a reform of the Security Council to reflect the world of today, without the veto being extended to new members of the Council. Of course the exact composition of a reformed Council is a question for future negotiations, but in order to reflect the current world order, a reformed Council will absolutely have to include countries like India. When the time is ripe, it would also be appropriate with a permanent seat for the European Union.

DSA: Parliamentary exchanges between India and Sweden have been instrumental in strengthening our bilateral relations. In September 2012, Swedish Parliamentary Committee on Defence visited India.

Please share with us the outcome of the visit and the road map for defence cooperation between India and Sweden. Is there a possibility of an Industry Delegation visiting India in the near future?

Harald Sandberg: You’re absolutely right, we’ve had a great number of successful exchanges of parliamentary visits between our two countries – each one furthering

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our bilateral understanding and cooperation. The Swedish defence committee visit you’re referring to was very valuable and a testimony to the growing bilateral cooperation in area of defence. Since then we’ve had a number of other high level defence visits. For instance the Indian Chief of the Naval Staff visited Sweden in 2013, the Swedish Organisation “Society and Defence” travelled to Mumbai and Delhi in the beginning of 2014 and Sweden also participated in the DEFEXPO 2014.

Looking ahead, the Swedish Chief of the Navy is scheduled to visit India later this year and so is the Director General of the Swedish Defence and Security Export Agency as well as representatives from several other Swedish government agencies.

DSA: Sweden is an important member of the European Union. The world has been coping with an assertive China, now you have an assertive Russia in your neighbourhood. What are your views on the developing scenario in Ukraine and adjoining countries and an increasingly covetous Russia?

Harald Sandberg: Well, as I’m sure you’re aware, the developments in Ukraine very much dominate the foreign policy agenda in our part of the world at the moment and we’re extremely concerned about Russia’s actions. Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt has taken a very active stance and has visited Ukraine twice in the last few months.

DSA: How do you view the state of the world today, the global security environment and the world slowly but surely transiting from a unipolar to a multipolar world order. As an important member of the European Union, what challenges and opportunities does this emerging scenario present to Sweden?

Harald Sandberg: This year we have the centenary of the outbreak of World War I, which marked the start of the terrible “short century” from 1914 to 1991, characterised by two devastating world wars and the ensuing cold war.

Also, over the past half century wealth, better quality of life and democracy have reached an increasing part of the world’s population. Seen in this perspective, the world today is a better and safer place than we maybe even hoped when I was a young man. Obviously, this does not mean that we can be complacent, or that there are not threats and challenges. In this discussion, we have already touched on the global economic difficulties from 2008 and onwards and on the deeply worrying developments in Ukraine. Bringing hundreds of millions of people out of poverty around the globe remains a global imperative. One should definitely also mention the global environmental issues, climate change, clean and safe water etc.

Indeed we are witnessing a quite remarkable shift in global economic and political balance and the emergence of a multipolar world order. The Eastern and Southern hemispheres are gaining influence and emerging economies now account for around two thirds of global growth.

All in all a very welcome development, but not without implications and lessons for Europe. We’re well aware that the EU needs to step up reform efforts not to lag behind and lose our competitive edge to fast-growing economies. The Swedish government is pushing hard for the EU to come to grips with low productivity, structural unemployment

Within the field of defence there are also great expectations for an enhanced cooperation both on the governmental side and on the industry side in order to be part of the build-up of an indigenous Indian defence industry producing equipment for the Indian armed forces and demographic challenges while investing in research, innovation and education. I do believe there might be a few lessons to learn from Sweden, having gone through very tough financial reforms in the 1990s and therefore faring well economically in spite of the recent global economic difficulties.

All this being said, one mustn’t forget that the EU is the world’s largest economic entity and open internal market and one that shares many common values with democratic countries like India. I believe that there’s great potential for increased political and economic cooperation between the EU and India.

DSA: Global jihad and terrorism are spreading their tentacles in all parts of the world. What bilateral and multilateral strategies and mechanisms have India and Sweden devised to counter and contain this scourge which is disturbing world peace and security?

Harald Sandberg: As you rightly point out, terrorism is a global threat, calling for global cooperation and solutions.

The EU and India cooperate on counterterrorism in various ways. Apart from addressing the issues in the India-EU Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism, it’s also discussed during our high level Summits. In these meetings we also touch upon the work being done in multilateral fora such as the UN Counter-Terrorism Committee. Naturally Sweden and India also address these matters bilaterally in contacts between our governments and relevant agencies.

DSA: How do you envision Indo-Swedish bilateral relations in the coming years and decades and what ideas and thoughts would you like to share with the people of India and DSA readers around the world?

Harald Sandberg: I believe that India and Sweden can both benefit from an even more frequent exchange of ideas, people, trade and business. Both India and Sweden face election in 2014 and I expect many high level visits in both directions regardless if we have changes of governments or not. I especially want us to continue our dialogues on cyber issues and foreign policy and wish to see an increased number of small and medium sized enterprises investing in our respective countries, not least in the fields of clean tech, IT and healthcare.

My hope is also that an even greater number of Indian students will choose Sweden as a study destination and that they become “ambassadors” of Sweden when they return to India.

Like we discussed previously, within the field of defence there are also great expectations for an enhanced cooperation both on the governmental side and on the industry side in order to be part of the build-up of an indigenous Indian defence industry producing equipment for the Indian armed forces.

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alienated neighbours

trOuBleD PeriPHery

Pakistan

Nepal

Bangladesh

CENTRIPETAL CONSEQUENCES

The crucial question is, with these enduring threats since the moment of India's birth, what has been the quality and quantum of our responses? With subversive, terrorist and insurgent movements multiplying over the decades, in most cases receiving support from one or more of India's neighbours, what has the Indian state done to secure its own soil?

I

ndia has existed in a troubled and hostile neighbourhood since the moment of Independence, with Pakistani mischief beginning even before the fateful ‘midnight hour’ of freedom, with the mutual slaughters of Partition, to be followed quickly by Pakistan’s attack on and illegal occupation of large parts of Jammu and Kashmir. Three wars with Pakistan have followed since and there has been an unrelenting history of subversion, proxy warfare and terrorism on Indian soil, supported by Islamabad.

Our other inflexible adversary has been China, with whom one war has been fought, despite preceding decades of ‘Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai’ bonhomie; and who was at the forefront in support of the 1967-73 Naxalite rebellion.

China’s approach, since, has been more subtle, but no less unfriendly. It is China’s ‘all weather friendship’ with Pakistan, the transfer of weapons and nuclear technologies, the unqualified support at international fora and the carte blanche to the latter for any mischief in the South Asian neighbourhood, that has so emboldened

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Pakistan in its disruptive terrorist misadventures. China has also, at different times, supported various rebel groups in the troubled Indian north-east and there is evidence that this proclivity is even now in place, with frequent documented trips by Paresh Baruah, the ‘commander in chief’ of the United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) to Kunming. China is also reported to have encouraged Indian insurgent groups to form a Strategic United Front against the Indian state, to unify the efforts of Kashmiri, Maoist and north-eastern militants. Significantly, an increasing proportion of illegal small arms in the Indian underground now originate in China.

India’s relations with her other neighbours have also been fraught with uncertainties. Despite India’s crucial role in the creation of Bangladesh, this was a potential friend who was quickly lost, drawn once again into the malicious sphere of Pakistani influence. Virtually every terrorist and insurgent group that sought to inflict harm on India found safe haven and support, for decades, on Bangladeshi soil, under the protection of a lethal combine

of Bangladesh’s Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI) and Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI).

This long history has, however, now been reversed under Sheikh Hasina’s friendly regime since January 2009 and most of the Indian insurgents have been expelled from Bangladesh, with a majority of their leaders handed over to Indian authorities. Radical and anti-India forces, nevertheless, continue to have significant influence in Bangladesh and if they were to recapture power at some point in the future, it is likely that they would restore their support to extremist formations acting against India.

Bhutan, again, while consistently friendly towards India, had become a safe haven for north-east Indian insurgent formations in the early 1990s, with their armed presence growing consistently over the following decade.

Bhutanese Security Forces, with no proximate history of war or major operations, were reluctant to confront the Indian insurgents and for years, these groups orchestrated terrorist attacks across the border, to flee back to the safety of their camps in Bhutan. Eventually, this was brought to an end in December 2003, with the Bhutanese Army, led personally by King Jigme Singye Wangchuck, expelling all Indian militant formations from Bhutan in Operation All Clear. Militant formations have found no space in that country since.

Our relations with Nepal and Sri Lanka have also been troubled from time to time. An anti-India posture is almost a necessity for all political formations in Nepal, though most political leaders privately hold positions entirely friendly towards India. India’s open borders with the country, moreover, create a range of security issues, with India’s enemies often using relatively poorly policed Nepalese soil to mount their subversive activities and the porous border to infiltrate terrorist cadres into India. Specifically, Nepal has also emerged as a major distribution hub (with Bangladesh) for Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICN) produced by state agencies in Pakistan. While no regime in Nepal has ever explicitly supported such activities, the very poor administrative and security arrangements in that country will continue to offer space for anti-India subversion.

India played an unfortunate role in the early stages of the Tamil insurgency in Sri Lanka, training and supporting various militant formations in that country, including elements within the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Over the years, an inevitable blowback occurred, drawing the Indian Army into the disastrous Operation Pawan in 1987 and subsequently bringing Tamil extremism and terrorism onto Indian soil resulting, most significantly, in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1989. Despite the total defeat of the LTTE in 2009, Tamil radicalism in Sri Lanka and India continues to undermine relations between the two countries, despite remarkable goodwill in Sri Lanka towards India.

Relationships with Myanmar have remained unequal, despite Yangon’s sustained and oft-reiterated expression of desire for better relations. Yangon has difficulty controlling its own periphery, with a multiplicity of insurgencies and warlords exercising substantial autonomy over

significant regions and these are the circumstances that have created spaces for Indian insurgent groups to secure safe havens across another porous border.

India, moreover, has unresolved territorial issues with every one of her neighbours and these, in some measure, have also prevented the demarcation and effective securing of borders.

Internal Security Challenges

DR AJAI SAHNI

The writer is Executive Director, Institute for Conflict Management and South Asia Terrorism Portal and Editor, South Asia Intelligence Review.

The cumulative impact of these various factors is a multiplicity of internal security challenges for the Indian state. The more friendly among India’s neighbours operate within the confines of their own domestic and geopolitical limitations, perceptions and imperatives, as does India – and this will be a natural source of sporadic friction. As for our enemies, it is futile and foolish to complain that they seek to harm us – that is the definition of inimical powers.

The crucial question is, with these enduring threats since the moment of India’s birth, what has been the quality and quantum of our responses? With subversive, terrorist and insurgent movements multiplying over the decades, in most cases receiving support from one or more of India’s neighbours, what has the Indian state done to secure its own soil? With a succession of major debacles in the face of terrorist and insurgent attack, has an intelligence and security apparatus been established to prevent their repetition? Or at least to ensure that responses in the face of an explicit attack are better than they have been in the past?

These questions acquire an immediate relevance in view of the present electoral debate on the relative efficacy of ‘policies’ under the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and its predecessor National Democratic Alliance (NDA) regimes. Indeed, the Congress party, selectively using data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), has put forward the claim that the decline in terrorism and insurgency related fatalities demonstrates that UPA policies have made India more secure, asserting that this is validated further by the fact that there has been no repeat of a 26/11 (Mumbai 2008) type attack.

Incompetent Terrorists

The truth, however, is deeply disappointing. Declining fatalities alone do not demonstrate reduced vulnerability; the latter is a function of capacities and capabilities to prevent and respond to security challenges and it is necessary to demonstrate that these have improved in sufficient proportion to secure tangible gains in security.

Indeed, though he was widely hailed as an extremely ‘proactive’ Home Minister, P Chidambaram, each year after the 2008 Mumbai attacks, to the end of his tenure in July 2012, reiterated that, despite the many initiatives taken by his Ministry, India’s cities remained as vulnerable as Mumbai was on 26/11.

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trOuBleD PeriPHery

In the Hyderabad twin bombings of February 21, 2013, 17 persons did lose their lives and 117 were injured, again, despite significant intelligence.

These examples demonstrate that, when terrorists do, in fact, deploy an attack, they with surprising frequency and ease, the promises made after 26/11 that this “never again” be allowed to happen.

Islamist succeed despite would

In Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan has escalated terrorism at will and has engineered repeated and devastating attacks on targets of its choice over the past years.

Dramatic declines in fatalities in Jammu and Kashmir are not proof of India’s invulnerability or of great sagacity in policy, but, overwhelmingly, of altered tactical and strategic perspectives and pressures in Pakistan.

Maoist Heartland Intact

The Maoists have suffered significant losses of leadership, overwhelmingly as a result of their over-extension, after the ‘unification’ of 2004, into new theatres far outside their regions of dominance. This has resulted in a withdrawal of the movement back into the ‘heartland’ areas along the so-called ‘Red Corridor’. Here, they continue to inflict devastating attacks, with little evidence of any radical transformation in the character of state responses.

Most recently, on March 11, 2014, fifteen SF personnel and one civilian were killed in a CPI-Maoist ambush at Jeeram Ghati in the Sukma District of South Chhattisgarh.

This is the same area where virtually the entire top Congress Party leadership in Chhattisgarh – including Mahendra Karma, the architect of the Salwa Judum – was wiped out on May 25, 2013.

This does not, of course, indicate that state agencies have done nothing. According to partial data compiled by SATP, for instance, at least 959 persons have been arrested since 26/11, in connection with Pakistan-backed Islamist terrorism and subversion, outside Jammu and Kashmir. The preventive impact of these arrests can only be imagined. However, this trend is in keeping with the pre-26/11 phase and well into the

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Fatal Flaws Remain

The sobering truth is that a wide range of extraneous factors, unrelated to state policy and strategy, lie behind the salubrious trends in extremist violence in India and these are at risk of quick reversal. India’s own vulnerabilities and capacities for prevention and response remain little changed. A lackadaisical, often corruption-led approach to internal security is everywhere in evidence, with crucial projects, acquisitions and plans delayed beyond measure, or implemented in a fitful manner that destroys the very possibility of their efficacy in securing intended ends. Police-population ratios crept up from 128 to 138 per 100,000 between 2008 and 2012, but remain far below acceptable levels. Training, equipment, technology and orientation have remained almost unchanged. Police reforms have been resisted and undermined by every political party and by the bureaucracy. According to NCRB data for 2012, India’s per capita expenditure on State Police works out to a pitiable Rs 1.25 per day – a fraction of what a cup of tea would cost at a roadside stall.

To expect effective internal security at this cost is just plain stupid. The Central Armed Police Forces, whose personnel are constantly rushed from one crisis spot to another, are denied the most rudimentary resources and equipment for their own protection.

The IB, with a meagre sanctioned strength of just 26,867 personnel, had a 30 per cent vacancy in 2013. And yet, the whole country expects failsafe intelligence on each and every terrorist action (and everything else that may happen) across the country from this tiny organisation.

280mm Live

Before this, in Bodh Gaya on July 7, 2013, despite repeated warnings by the Intelligence Bureau, terrorists were able to locate 13 explosive devices across this most sacred Buddhist site, of which ten actually exploded. The fact that nobody died in this incident and only two persons were injured, is evidence of the sheer incompetence of the terrorists and not of the exemplary success of national internal security policy.

period when terrorism and insurgencies were peaking across the country in the early 2000s. Large numbers of subversives and militants were arrested even then, with little impact on the then-escalating violence.

298mm Trim

These vulnerabilities have been demonstrated again and again in the recent past. Despite ample intelligence warnings, on October 27, 2013, terrorists were able to plant 12 bombs in and around what should have been a totally sanitised location – the Patna rally of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Prime Ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi. The fact that just two persons were killed in these blasts is proof, not of our exemplary capacities to secure ourselves against terrorism, but of the inability of the terrorists to rig effective improvised explosive devices.

boeing.co.in

308mm in. Bleed

alienated neighbours

Holes In Coastal Security

Coastal security was identified as one of the priority areas of security reform after 26/11, but India’s coastline remains just as unprotected. A 390 tonne vessel, Seaman Guard Ohio, functioned undetected as an illegal ‘floating armoury’ for merchant vessels in Indian territorial waters for 45 days prior to its detention off Tuticorin on October 12, 2013. More dramatically, three massive vessels simply drifted into Mumbai in 2011, completely unnoticed by the numerous Coastal Police Stations, checkposts, outposts and sea and land patrols that had been established after 26/11.

Crucial projects, such as the Crime and Criminal Tracking Network and Systems (CCTNS) are yet to take off. A national database on criminal and terrorist activity is nowhere near realisation.

These are random examples of the inadequacies and extreme susceptibilities of the Indian internal security apparatus. The reality is, even today, the existing systems lack the rudimentary capacities necessary to meet current challenges and the corrupt, deeply compromised and ignorant political leadership has not even begun to imagine the dangers that could arise from a future escalation that could include a generational shift in terrorist capabilities.

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homeland security

interVieW

PEACE, SERVICE, JUSTICE

M

r Bhim Sain Bassi is a 1977 batch IPS officer of Arunachal Pradesh-Goa -Mizoram Union Territories (AGMUT) cadre. Before being elevated as Commissioner of Police Delhi he was Special Commissioner (Administration). During his illustrious career he has been head of Delhi Traffic Police, Director General of Police, Goa and Inspector General of Police, Chandigarh. Here in an exclusive and rare interview with DSA he shares his professional views and vision for Delhi police.

Defence and Security Alert: You have been Commissioner of Police, Delhi since August 2013. What according to you are the strengths and the weaknesses of the force in carrying out its mandated duties and responsibilities? And what is your vision for Delhi Police in the service of the National Capital?

Bhim Sain Bassi: Delhi Police is a highly professional police force which has given an excellent account of itself in ensuring peace and tranquillity in Delhi. Its focus on community policing, capacity to effectively prevent and detect crimes and the expertise to handle diverse law and order situations are its strengths.

Certain constraints which operate on policing include an exponential growth in population in Delhi outpacing the growth in police manpower, economic hiatus between various segments of Delhi’s population and anonymity provided by mega city environment.

Mr Bhim Sain Bassi, reading the latest issue of DSA

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My vision for Delhi Police is best described by the three words ‘Shanti, Sewa, Nyaya’ which we have recently inscribed in the Delhi Police logo in the ribbon at the base of

May 2014 Defence AnD security Alert

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Mr Bhim Sain Bassi with Mr Pawan Agrawal, Publisher and CEO and Mrs Mamta Jain, Head Corporate Communications of DSA magazine

accident rate in Delhi. However, it has consistently been coming down in recent years due to the untiring efforts of the Traffic unit of Delhi Police. The number of fatalities due to accidents reduced from 1,866 (in 2012) to 1,820 (in 2013), which was the lowest in the last 10 years. During the current year also the declining trend is continuing.

In my view mobility with safety has to be the guiding principle for any Traffic manager. To achieve this, the Traffic unit of Delhi Police rests its action plan on the four pillars of Education, Regulation, Enforcement and Road Engineering (ERER) – My objective is to make the mantra of ERER a vision shared by all traffic personnel so that they do not remain moribund and freely contribute newer ideas to enhance mobility with safety. Besides, we are involving road users, civil society and all other influential individuals and groups – whether governmental, social, religious and political – to extend their full support to make roads safer.

DSA: Criminal activities, drug addiction and alcoholism among teenagers and young adults is on the increase.

What prevention and control mechanism has Delhi Police devised to arrest this disturbing trend?

the logo. I firmly believe that nothing can better define a policeman’s task than these three words as responsibility of preserving peace in the society has to be discharged with a sense of service and an eye on fair play.

DSA: Ensuring free registration has always been a priority for you. What steps have you taken to create awareness for the service and what has been the response of the residents of Delhi?

BS Bassi: Ensuring free registration has always been my priority. Needless to say, the process of providing justice to a victim of a cognizable crime cannot begin unless an FIR is registered. My endeavour for free registration has received total support from the highest echelons in the government. The media has also been objective in reporting the crime scenario. The increase in the registration of crimes, particularly street crimes, since August 2013, displays that policemen in Delhi have overcome their inhibitions.

DSA: Community participation in policing is of critical importance. Equally important is the image of the force and public perception. What initiatives have you taken to improve the public perception and encourage community participation in policing? How successful and effective has been the Neighbourhood Watch Scheme?

BS Bassi: Community participation in policing is a sine qua non for public satisfaction. Community outreach programmes of Delhi Police include initiatives like Neighbourhood Watch Scheme, Mohallla Nigrani Samiti, Yuva, Parivartan, Jan Sewa Sabhas, Special Cell for

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vulnerable sections like women, children, senior citizens, those hailing from north-eastern states, foreigners etc.

DSA: Women’s safety has been hogging headlines in the recent past and you have also said that “as long as every woman on Delhi’s streets does not feel fully safe, our task is incomplete”. What measures have you taken to ensure women’s safety and security in Delhi?

BS Bassi: The year 2013 has been witness to the meticulous implementation of a slew of measures pertaining to women’s safety. These included increasing the number of call-takers on the telephone Nos. 100 and 1091; creation of 24x7 women help desks at all police stations; conversion of 522 posts of male constables to that of woman constables and creation of additional posts of 306 W/SIs and 778 woman constables; interaction with students and teachers of girls colleges and schools; self-defence training programmes; deployment of PCR vans, motor cycles and pickets to cover vulnerable locations and appointment of a Spl CP level officer for holding regular interaction with NGOs and civil society.

DSA: Criminals and terrorists from adjoining states sneak into Delhi, commit robberies, murders and acts of terrorism and escape. What is Delhi Police doing to monitor and curb this threat to the lives and properties of Delhiites?

BS Bassi: Delhi Police is conscious of the threat posed to the safety of people by the criminals and terrorists who may sneak from other places to indulge in criminal and terrorist activities. As such special emphasis is laid on collection of relevant intelligence. Recently, Special Cell

of Delhi Police arrested Waqas and Tehsin Akhtar, who were wanted in a series of bomb blast incidents in India.

DSA: As the National Capital, Delhi witnesses many demonstrations, rallies, strikes and dharnas. Delhi is venue for national and international conferences, trade fairs and festivals and also hosts many international dignitaries round the year. How do you ensure that law and order situation is always under control?

BS Bassi: The performance of Delhi Police has been commendable. Both the Special Branch as well as the local police have shown deep appreciation of developments having a bearing on the law and order scenario. A large number of festivals, important government and private functions / events, dharnas, demonstrations, morchas, rasta roko, protest programmes and bandhs were managed peacefully because of due appreciation of the situation and meticulous planning and execution of arrangements made by all the concerned units. Meticulous planning and execution of security arrangements for such events is the hallmark of the functioning of Delhi Police.

DSA: VIP movement, traffic jams and road rage are the nightmares Delhiites have to encounter every day. What plans do you have to make travel within the city a happy experience for the residents of Delhi?

BS Bassi: Traffic is an area which affects every citizen’s life.

Multimodal traffic, rapid unplanned commercialisation along roads and highways, an indifferent attitude towards road safety had been responsible for a disturbingly high

BS Bassi: I believe in a ‘zero tolerance policing’ towards drug trafficking. Besides local police, both Crime Branch and Special Cell of Delhi Police have been specially tasked to stamp out this menace. Concerted efforts of Delhi Police have resulted in huge recoveries. Awareness programmes against drug addiction are an important feature of our community policing particularly in slums and areas lacking civic amenities.

DSA: Every political party and Chief Minister of Delhi wants Delhi Police under the NCT government. Do you think this is feasible and in the best interest of Delhi?

BS Bassi: It is of the government.

a

matter

within

the

domain

DSA: India is a member of INTERPOL. But we are not sure whether Delhi Police Commissioner is a member of other leading Police Organisations like International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP) and International Police Association (IPA) which facilitate close cooperation between police officers of different countries. Your comments please.

BS Bassi: Appropriate arrangements exist for coordination in this regard.

DSA: What thoughts and ideas will you like to share with the residents of Delhi and DSA readers around the world?

BS Bassi: Delhi Police personnel have served the people with distinction and have displayed the capacity to shoulder the burden of maintaining peace and tranquillity in the capital city. I assure the citizens that we shall continue to display the same spirit and capacity in future also.

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reD cOrriDOr

Maoist / Naxalite movement started in 1967 by Charu Majumdar who staged an uprising in Naxalbari, West Bengal, against the seizure of peasants land by local landlords. The movement spread to the neighbouring states of Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Assam after 1977. The base was drawn from the tribal and rural poor fighting for equitable rights and land reforms.

THE RED CORRIDOR

ORISSA

CHHATTISGARH

MAHARASHTRA

ANDHRA PRADESH

Communist Party of India (Maoist) with the goal to create a Compact Revolutionary Zone (Red Corridor) stretching from Nepal to Andhra Pradesh so as to facilitate their movement and have a separate zone of governance. The objective being to wage a “Protracted Peoples War” (PPR), to seize political power and herald a New Democratic Revolution (NDR) under the leadership of agrarian class by establishing a Socialist-Communist rule.

The movement spread with the great intensity during the period 2003-09 when two unsuccessful assassination attempts were made on former Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh. The current estimated strength of the armed wing the Peoples Liberation Group Army (PLGA) is 11,500 core group fighters and an additional 38,000 “Jan Militia” who provide logistic support. Naxalism is active in 150 districts of 13 states especially in those areas where more than 40 per cent of the population lives below poverty line.

The current estimated strength of the armed wing the Peoples Liberation Group Army (PLGA) is 11,500 core group fighters and an additional 38,000 “Jan Militia” who provide logistic support. Naxalism is active in 150 districts of 13 states especially in those areas where more than 40 per cent of the population lives below poverty line Support Base

O

ur Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh had rightly pointed out that the single greatest threat to India is our own internal security. Yet this is one area which we take so lightly as is so apparent in the number of incidents that occur of Naxalites striking at will with worrisome regularity. The latest attack at Tongpal, Sukma District, Chhattisgarh on 11 March 2014 is yet a reminder of their ability to strike at liberty. The subsequent reactions are predictable, a standard enquiry, politicians exercising their vocal chords, heavy policing activity in the subsequent weeks before the incident fades in our memory replaced by some other high media event.

Left Wing Extremism

The intellectual debate on whether to name it LWE, Naxalism, Maoism etc however is not the main theme of this article. What is of concern is the spread of the Red Corridor which initially was restricted to a few states in north-east India has spread across the country. The LWE activities are intense in Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Orissa, significant in West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh and have penetrated some of the states in north-east and south India. In 2013 the Maoists continued

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to expand the boundaries of the Red Corridor to Upper Assam and their presence has also been noticed in the tri-junction of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala. Over the past few years they have expanded their writ to the urban areas to include Delhi NCR, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Nagpur and Bhopal. With the upcoming elections it is expected that there would be a rise in the activities especially when the security forces would be engaged in providing security for the general elections.

Background

Maoist / Naxalite movement started in 1967 by Charu Majumdar who staged an uprising in Naxalbari, West Bengal, against the seizure of peasants land by local landlords. Having started the movement Charu died in police custody leaving the movement fragmented.

However, the movement spread to the neighbouring states of Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Assam after 1977. The base was drawn from the tribal and rural poor fighting for equitable rights and land reforms.

In 2004 the two biggest factions, the Peoples War Group and Maoist Communist Centre, merged to form the

The Naxals receive active support from other insurgent / terror organisations from our neighbouring countries. In particular the LTTE from Sri Lanka supported them with training and equipment till the LTTE were themselves defeated. Support also came from ULFA in Assam, the Maoists of Nepal, equipment from the insurgent groups of Myanmar and safe havens and finances from / through Bangladesh. In addition the Naxals obtain their finances from extortion of government contractors / workers, politicians, investment project developers and levying taxes on tendu leaf.

Currently the Naxals in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Orissa are the most active. The gravity of the situation can be perceived from the fact that during the period 2011-13 the number of security personnel dead is 371 in addition to 1,000 civilians caught in the crossfire between rebels and security forces, from 4,311 incidents in these three states.

During the same period in the high intensity conflict zones of Jammu and Kashmir, Assam, Manipur and Meghalaya together had a casualty rate of 239 security forces and 381 civilians in 3,123 incidents. Hence though India has witnessed a number of insurgency movements in the past and currently ongoing, the Naxalites / Maoists are proving to be the most blood thirsty adversary.

Ambush At Tongpal

On 11 March 2014 a CRPF contingent of 45 men left their post at Tongpal LT GEN DALIP BHARDWAJ to sanitise the road. They were PVSM, VSM (RETD) ambushed at a distance of 3 km from The writer is a former their support base when they came Director General of the under sustained IED explosions Mechanised Forces, and small arms fire. The area on Indian Army. either side of the road was plain and cultivated and yet the Naxalites struck. The ambush resulted in 16 men dead (11 from CRPF, 4 Policemen and one civilian). To add insult to injury the Naxalites took away 18 weapons. The first response indicated was that the strength of the Naxalites exceeded 300, which no doubt is exaggerated as such a large number can never conceal themselves in such open terrain.

What is even more painful is that a similar incident occurred on 25 May 2013 only 15 km away when they attacked a convoy comprising the top Congress leadership of the state which resulted in 31 people losing their lives which included Mahendra Karma, a former minister of Chhattisgarh, Nand Kumar Patel former MP and VC Shukla a former union minister. Even in this case the convoy projected an ideal target with so many high profile leaders, with inadequate security passing through a vulnerable area on predicted route which was publicised well in advance.

Lessons To Be Learned

The moot point is when will we ever learn from our past experience. In both these incidents enquiries were held, but have we learnt our lessons from the previous incidents and are we taking corrective measures or will we wait for the next such incident to raise our voices, express our sorrow for a short time and return to our normal lives as usual soon thereafter.

The ambush at Tongpal could have taken place due to a number of lapses to include:  When patrols move out they do so in tactical formations, with the scouts ahead for early warning. Here it is apparent that the entire convoy was in one group thereby presenting a vulnerable target having no early warning.  Road clearance is generally done on foot so that every inch of ground is covered.  If vehicles are used, then one of the lead vehicles will have an electronic jammer, which neutralises / detonates IED’s laid ahead of the convoy.  For 300 Naxals to wait in ambush just 3 km from the CRPF base indicates that the area was not kept under day and night surveillance and lack of area domination.  One aspect the security forces need to deliberate is that they must not fall into the trap of adopting a “fortress mentality” operating out of their fortified camps. What needs to be emphasised is to enhance area

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domination to prevent the free movement of Naxals and their equipment along the corridor.

One aspect the security forces need to deliberate is that they must not fall into the trap of adopting a “fortress mentality” operating out of their fortified camps. What needs to be emphasised is to enhance area domination to prevent the free movement of Naxals and their equipment along the corridor

The list of shortcomings could be compiled endlessly but the basic pointers are to lack of training, poor leadership and an absence of camaraderie, which comes from regimentation and building of esprit de corps. In today’s high-tech world to defeat a guerrilla, the conventional forces have to rely on technology. Therefore all gadgets (equipment) that can contribute to victory must be employed. Some of the essential equipment are:  Night Vision Devices. Extensive use of night vision devices to include Thermal Imaging devices must be employed to gain ascendancy both by day and night.  Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV’s). Roads, tracks must be kept under surveillance by UAV’s. In fact when a convoy or patrol moves out for road clearance, it must be preceded by the UAV. The IAF / NTRO are operating a number of UAVs in the region, but clearly they are inadequate to keep this vast area under surveillance hence the need to enhance their numbers equipped with better low frequency radars.  Helicopters. For surveillance, movement and attack, helicopters are essential for such operations. The IAF is operating a few Mi -17 helicopters but clearly they need to be enhanced.  Electronic Jammers. All convoys must have vehicle mounted electronic jammers to neutralise IEDs. Intercepts. Even Naxals have to rely to some degree on the mobile networks for communication, therefore electronic surveillance would pay rich dividends in gathering intelligence.  Mine Protected Vehicles. A plethora a mine resistant armoured vehicles are available and manufactured indigenously. These vehicles need to be bought in larger numbers to ensure area domination where

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suitable roads and tracks are available.

Counter-measures

No doubt the central government has taken a number of measures to tackle this threat as given below:  Manpower. Augmenting the state police by providing additional manpower from the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs), specialist units such as Commando Battalion For Resolute Action (CoBRA) and India Reserve Battalion (IRB).

 Training. The nucleus staff of the State Police were trained by the army, who thereafter trained their manpower at the Counter Insurgency and Anti-Terrorist Schools (CIATS) established by each state. Modernisation. The Centre has set aside a large budget for Modernisation of State Police Forces (MPF scheme).

In addition the Centre reimburses expenditure incurred by the states on security through the Security Related Expenditure (SRE scheme).  Development. The Centre has initiated a number a centrally controlled schemes to build-up the economy and infrastructure eg MGMREGS, PM Gram Sadak Yojana, Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan etc.

LWE Still Dominating Landscape

Despite all these measures the Naxals still have the will, determination and audacity to attack the security forces and disrupt the administration. Therefore the need of the hour is to learn lessons from our past experience and lay greater emphasis on training, inculcate the ethos of regimentation to build esprit de corps. Enhance the officer-to-men ratio thereby ensuring that young officers are posted in adequate strength in these units who will lead from the front. These no doubt are the issues related to the central armed police forces however the most important factor is the political desire to deal directly with this threat. This would only be possible if emphasis is laid on the socio-economic development, poverty elimination, good governance and an efficient criminal justice scheme to function with speed, fairness and transparency.

The coming months are crucial from India’s security point of view, hence the urgency to adopt stringent means to cope with this threat.

alienated neighbours

sri lAnKA Tamil parties but also from senior Congress leaders in the state, including Finance Minister P Chidambaram. Indeed, the UPA’s policies on Sri Lanka have led to a great deal of confusion in Delhi’s national security establishment on the role of states in significant foreign policy decisions of national importance and significance.

While the role of states in deciding Indian foreign policy is under debate, it is undeniably a matter of great contention and will receive considerable attention once the next government assumes office post-election – that is, depending on the regional allegiances of the next government.

UNHRC Fissures

ROLE OF STATES IN

INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY The UPA government has, thus far, been unable to take political parties in Tamil Nadu on-board and evolve a consensus on the contentious issue – an apparent and undeniably huge failing.

The LTTE’s defeat has also given India an opportunity to put its relations with Sri Lanka on a balanced, strong footing. However, India must act fast before its adversaries are able to take advantage of the situation to its detriment.

I

t is arguable that India has neighbours who are more ‘alienated’ than Sri Lanka. This notwithstanding, India’s relations with Sri Lanka have been fraught with both great intimacy (culturally and historically) as well as deep fractures. India and Sri Lanka have had a long historical bond, based in both ethnic and cultural as well as economic and historical interconnectedness.

As neighbours, the two countries occupy a strategic position in the South Asian region and have sought to create a common security ‘umbrella’ in the Indian Ocean.

While bilateral relations have been generally amiable, the

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Sri Lankan civil war and India’s failure to intervene resulted in deep animosity. Relations in the period thereafter, however, have been nuanced though somewhat positive.

A Fractured Intimacy

India’s ancient civilisational ties with Sri Lanka have been evident ever since Emperor Ashoka sent his son and daughter to the then-Ceylon 2,500 years ago to propagate Buddhism. Since the 4th century before the common era (BCE), Sri Lanka has had the longest continuous history

While India is Sri Lanka’s biggest trading partner, China is its biggest donor – having given about US$ 1.2 billion to Sri Lanka in 2009. Beijing has said that it will take forward plans to boost maritime connectivity with Sri Lanka, with both countries having agreed to deepen economic links and sign a Free Trade Agreement before the end of the year – also a matter of concern for India’s waning influence in Sri Lanka of Buddhism, with its monastic lineage being periodically revived through contact with Myanmar and Thailand.

The last three decades have, however, brought tension in the relationship due to the rise and militaristic approach of the LTTE and its resonance in India’s domestic politics.

India’s relations with Sri Lanka have been mired in India’s internal political discourse with political parties in Tamil Nadu adopting increasingly aggressive positions towards the treatment of the Tamil minority by the Sri Lanka government. The UPA government has, thus far, been unable to take these parties in Tamil Nadu on board and evolve a consensus on the contentious issue – an apparent and undeniably huge failing. The Prime Minister’s decision to skip the Commonwealth Summit in Colombo last year represented a significant appeasement of regional parties in Tamil Nadu. It has also been noted that this pressure came not only from

In the UNHRC, India has voted against Sri Lanka on the West-backed resolutions on human rights violations over the last two years and has abstained this year – an interesting and somewhat unexpected though highly welcome and forward-looking move, giving India an opportunity to repair the fractured ties. The resolution sought to put Sri Lanka under intrusive external investigation with an open-ended mandate to monitor national processes for protection of human rights in the country. A ‘yes’ vote from New Delhi would have undoubtedly further estranged the two countries and pushed Sri Lanka closer to China and Pakistan. The LTTE’s defeat has also given India an opportunity to put its relations with Sri Lanka on a balanced, strong footing. However, India must act fast before its adversaries are able to take advantage of the situation to its detriment.

Sino-Pak Advantage?

AMB ASHOK SAJJANHAR

The writer a postgraduate in Physics from Delhi University and a career diplomat, has served as Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia. He has also held several significant positions in Indian Embassies in Moscow, Tehran, Geneva, Dhaka, Bangkok, Washington and Brussels. He negotiated for India in the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations.

He has been an active participant in many International Seminars organised by UNCTAD and WTO.

ANURADHA SAJJANHAR

The co-writer did her schooling in Delhi, Washington, Brussels, Moscow and Bangkok.

She did her Honours in English Literature from the University of York, UK and completed her MA in Sociology from the Delhi School of Economics, Delhi University. Currently she is working as a Research Assistant at a premier think tank in New Delhi.

China and Pakistan are in an opportune position to take advantage of India’s tense relations with Sri Lanka, effectively trying to ‘fill the space’ left vacated by India on account of its passive and confused policy – the Hambantota Port development by China is a case in point. The port allows the Chinese Navy to use its facilities, potentially working against India’s security and strategic interest.

The possibility and / or opportunity for China and Pakistan to engage in arms trade with Sri Lanka is a matter of growing concern for India. The Sri Lankan

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alienated neighbours

sri lAnKA

500 MW Thermal Power Station in Sampur

India needs to alter its foreign policy framework to pay more attention to Sri Lanka in security, political, strategic, economic and cultural areas. Sri Lanka is India’s underbelly and our maritime security is inextricably linked to our good relations with it cabinet recently decided to give another contract to develop Colombo Port to another Chinese consortium.

According to reports, the terminal will be built by the same company that built Hambantota Port complex – the China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) and the Sino Hydro Corporation. It has to be understood that no Indian company made a single bid for the project, perhaps as a result of their risk-averse attitude, or simply just a lack of strategic foresightedness – a worrying state of affairs. Once it has been developed, the Colombo Port will handle the bulk of India’s shipping traffic, giving it heightened importance for India.

aid programme needs to be continued and expanded significantly. India has allocated an estimated US$ 1.3 billion – its largest ever development assistance programme – for the Tamils in northern Sri Lanka. The projects being undertaken include the construction of 50,000 homes and supply of materials for around 43,000 war-damaged houses. There have also been major projects for development of rail transportation, port infrastructure, a 500 MW Thermal Power Station in Sampur, upgrading of Palaly Airport etc.

Hambantota Port complex

While India is Sri Lanka’s biggest trading partner, China is its biggest donor – having given about US$ 1.2 billion to Sri Lanka in 2009. Today, Beijing is involved in major infrastructure projects, ranging from roads and railways to ports – with investments amounting to US$ 4 billion, according to state media reports. China has also been one of the most vocal backers of the Sri Lankan government in the UNHRC amid increasing international criticism of the post-war reconciliation process in the country. Beijing has said that it will take forward plans to boost maritime connectivity with Sri Lanka, with both countries having agreed to deepen economic links and sign a Free Trade Agreement before the end of the year – also a matter of concern for India’s waning influence in Sri Lanka.

Pakistan is the second largest trading partner of Sri Lanka in the South-Asian region. Indeed, Sri Lanka was the first country to sign an FTA with Pakistan in 2005.

A Joint Economic Commission was held late last year to expand the scope of this FTA, in which ‘visible positive vibes’ were detected that Colombo is leaning away from apparent economic dependency on India. In 2012, Sri Lankan Airlines expressed interest in expanding its operations in multiple cities within Pakistan, while also inviting Pakistan International Airlines to operate more flights to Sri Lanka. Apart from their deepening economic relationship, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have had strong military and defence cooperation. Pakistan was a strong government ally when the Rajapaksa government took on the LTTE in its final battle in 2009 and has been supplying arms to Colombo since long before then. While this may have led to India being sidelined in defence cooperation with Sri Lanka, India’s military-to-military relationship with Sri Lanka has grown despite political tensions with the two countries seeking to increase naval cooperation targeting piracy and terrorism in the Indian Ocean. The two countries, along with the Maldives signed a security cooperation agreement designed to make operations by the three navies seamless. India also reportedly trains several hundred Sri Lankan military personnel at its schools, despite significant opposition from

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Despite the passions displayed, there has been no appreciable effort from the government, civil society organisations, political parties, or business houses in Tamil Nadu to see how the state’s human and developmental resources could be offered and put to use for economically empowering people in northern Sri Lanka

Tamil Nadu’s Responsibility

regional parties in Tamil Nadu.

India’s nuclear cooperation with Sri Lanka is desirable but still at an incipient stage of exploration, with reports suggesting that Sri Lanka is considering a nuclear pact with Pakistan, having abandoned a similar deal with New Delhi after it voted against Sri Lanka for the second time last year in the UNHRC. Pakistan has been a strong supporter of Sri Lanka in the UNHRC, even moving a ‘no action motion’ on the resolution disputing the ability of the UN rights body to find the finances required to carry out an investigation in Sri Lanka.

Double-edged Strategy

The India-Sri Lanka Bilateral Trade Agreement is working well and is beneficial and advantageous to Sri Lanka – it is imperative that we work towards expanding it. India needs to alter its foreign policy framework to pay more attention to Sri Lanka in security, political, strategic, economic and cultural areas. Sri Lanka is India’s underbelly and our maritime security is inextricably linked to our good relations

with it. India also needs to evolve a workable solution on the issue of fishermen of the two countries straying into each other’s waters and causing tension when they are arrested. Talks to resolve the issue were once again postponed in March, while a total of 74 Indian fishermen were caught by the Sri Lankan Navy on charges of poaching.

After the latest India vote, Sri Lanka decided to release all Indian fishermen in its custody.

India’s strategy needs to be double-edged. Politically, it should work with world and regional powers to ensure that Sri Lanka fulfils its commitment to credibly inquire into the entire range of human rights violations, in the last stages of the conflict. This has to be accompanied by a phased and early reduction in the presence of the Sri Lankan Army in its north and an end to interference by the army in civilian affairs. Joint patrolling of the maritime boundary should be enhanced to ensure there is no inflow of weapons to the north.

On the economic front, India’s already substantial

Despite the passions displayed, there has been no appreciable effort from the government, civil society organisations, political parties, or business houses in Tamil Nadu to see how the state’s human and developmental resources could be offered and put to use for economically empowering people in northern Sri Lanka. Given its vast resources in fields like information technology and technical education, the state could make a significant contribution through collaborative interaction with people in Jaffna and elsewhere to promote the emergence of northern Sri Lanka as a technical and industrial hub.

The next Indian Prime Minister after the elections should endeavour to visit Sri Lanka at the earliest opportunity to re-establish a balanced relationship with Sri Lanka with confidence and credibility. It is also imperative for India to revive the process for the conclusion of the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) which will bring in bilateral exchange of investment and services – expanding exchanges beyond tariff reductions for trade in commodities. Indo-Sri Lankan bilateral trade has crossed US$ 5 billion and has the potential to increase further in the next few years if appropriate efforts are made by both sides.

Both India and Sri Lanka stand on the threshold of a golden opportunity to put their relations on a firm, steady footing. They owe it to themselves and to their people to take full advantage of this possibility to promote peace, security and prosperity in their countries and the region.

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cHinA

GRAND DESIGN ENCIRCLEMENT OF INDIA Regionally, China views India as a potential threat both economically and militarily. China is consciously moving very slowly in resolving its disputes with India along the 4,000 km plus border. Frequent border violations are undertaken by the PLA to keep the issue simmering. China will continue to maintain diplomatic and military pressure on India.

H

aving followed successful economic policies for the last four decades China now stands to challenge the global leadership of the US not only in the economic field but in other strategic domains as well. It has made a very determined effort to secure its borders, develop modern armed forces and acquire new technologies.

With confidence born of economic and military strength it has developed long-term objectives that aim to change the existing world order.

Chinese Perspective Of Challenges

China has 14 adjacent countries, of these it has gone to war with five (India, Japan, Russia, South Korea and Vietnam).

A number of countries in its neighbourhood have unstable regimes. And none of China’s neighbours share common strategic goals with it. Surrounding mainland China are North Asia, South Asia, South China Sea and Central Asia. These regions, some of which are resource rich, pose peculiar security and diplomatic problems for China.

Further away lie the Americas, Western Europe, Africa and oil rich Middle East. China sees these parts of the world as source of raw materials specially hydrocarbons and potential markets for Chinese manufactured goods that are largely export oriented. Therefore it has great political, diplomatic and economic challenges in these parts of the world as well.

Internal Insecurity

Internally China has reached a stage of development where the coastal areas boast of high economic prosperity, while the hinterland remains underdeveloped. This

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socio-economic contradiction creates tensions that pose an internal security threat; the political order takes this into account. Chinese leadership is also very sensitive to any indications of unrest such as it experiences as a consequence of its drive towards Hanisation of Xinjiang and Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR).

But the biggest threat it perceives is from the economic powerhouse of the US and its modern military that has unmatched power projection capabilities. US naval power, ranked best in the world, can effectively block the sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) and strangle China economically. Besides the US, India placed astride the SLOCs can also pose a significant threat. Chinese Navy will find it difficult to counter such moves as it is yet to develop carrier based battle groups.

Its subsurface capabilities are also limited. To counter this imbalance, China has embarked on an ambitious missile, specially the so called “carrier killer supersonic missiles” and space based assets programmes.

Regionally, China views India as a potential threat both economically and militarily.

Lastly, China wants to ensure diplomatic support for isolating Taiwan and Tibet’s Dalai Lama, as also recruit allies for supporting its position on international issues and legal regimes.

Chinese Objectives

In view of these terms of reference China has five important strategic objectives:  Ensure domestic security so as to forestall an uprising which it greatly apprehends.  Ensure continued high economic growth rate.

Therefore, maintain close relations with countries where its exports are headed as also countries from where the imports are coming in.  As the export / import umbilical cord runs along the SLOCs, ensure unfettered access to them.  Keep sufficient control over four non-Han buffer states: Manchuria, Mongolia, Xinjiang and Tibet in order to secure itself from any threat that could emanate from

close relations with Iran, the only autonomous oil producer in Middle East. A nuclear and independent Iran is in China’s interest compared to a non-nuclear Iran under US influence. In line with its strategic priorities China has selected three areas for domination in Eastern and Southern Asia. These are:  India, its surrounding region including TAR and Indian Ocean.  South China Sea.  Intervening region to include the countries around South China Sea and the SLOCs.

India Russia in the North and India in the SW.  Finally, manage the US threat by ensuring that America does not come under such intense pressure which could precipitate a military conflict. To forestall this contingency China has moved forward to embrace the US economy in a bear hug, so that the two countries become mutually inter-dependent, thus reducing the possibility of a military confrontation.

China’s External Priorities

In view of the threat perception and national aims some important features of China’s external priorities in the 21st century are:  It considers 21st century as a “strategic window of opportunity” to become a global power. It intends to change the present unipolar world to a multi-polar one in which China will be the other super power.  China realises that globalisation and opening up of the country for development is indispensable, hence it is necessary to maintain a favourable external environment.  China’s expanding military power, changes in military doctrine from “strategic counter attack” to “strategic projection operations” suggest that in due course of time it plans to acquire at least regional power projection capability.  Assimilation of Taiwan is a political priority. China is preparing for various military contingencies including the possibility of intervention by the US.  China looks forward to resolving disputes with Japan in the East China Sea which is a rich source of natural gas and oil in spite of occasional tensions. Similarly it wants to successfully handle the dispute over Spratly and Paracel Islands with Brunei, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam. These islands lie in the South China Sea through which SLOCs, crucial to China’s economy, pass.  China is consciously moving very slowly in resolving its disputes with India along the 4,000 km plus border.

Frequent border violations are undertaken by the PLA to keep the issue simmering. China will continue to maintain diplomatic and military pressure on India.  China feels encircled by South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Vietnam, India and Russia. It is wary of American presence in Afghanistan and of several Arab states that are close allies of the US. It is, therefore, developing

MAJOR GENERAL AK HUKKU YSM (RETD)

The writer is a former infantry officer of the Indian Army. He served as the Indian Military Attache in France with concurrent accreditation to Benelux countries. Later he was the Chief Military Intelligence Advisor in the Cabinet Secretariat, following that a Centre Director in NTRO. After retirement he has been speaking on South Asia in the US, across Europe and in Malaysia.

China views India as its only potential regional rival economically and militarily. India’s close relationship with the US is also viewed with great concern. In spite of Chinese claims to the contrary, it has been following a policy of strategic domination of the region around India. An unsettled border dispute with India, construction of air and missile bases in TAR, construction of 60 launch pads for nuclear capable missiles in Dalingha and Da Qaidam regions of Central China, hectic road construction leading to the Indian borders, construction of railway from Xining to Lhasa, repeated intrusions into Indian territory and proposed construction of railway line linking the Karakoram Highway from Gilgit to Gwadar, all add up to sustain tensions with India.

Chinese “string of pearls policy” is a matter of concern.

Encircling India is a part of China’s naval design which is a subset of its foreign policy. China has built / is building a number of naval bases around India viz Gwadar Deep Sea Port in Pakistan, Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka and the proposed submarine base at Marao in Maldives. Other Chinese activities are ongoing in Myanmar and Bangladesh as well.

The most significant is the Chinese involvement in the Gwadar Deep Sea Port in Pakistan. It is a state-of-the-art port constructed with Chinese help and located at the mouth of the Persian Gulf in the Arabian Sea. Its location will enable Chinese SSBNs and surface vessels to dominate the SLOCs in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.

In view of the existential threat from China, it is high time Indian leadership snaps out of its somnolence and evolves a deliberate long-term approach to protect its national interests. Peacemeal efforts and knee-jerk reactions will just not work. Besides modernising its armed forces and putting in place an integrated higher defence organisation, there are two critically significant steps that it must take.

First, make itself economically powerful and second, clean up the Augean stables of its political system so as to ensure quality governance and internal stability. Failure to do so will be at its own peril.

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alienated neighbours

cHinA’s MilitAry rise by 10.7 per cent over the previous year, this year’s rate of growth is higher than recent years. This exorbitant increase in China’s military budget over the past several years has sparked concerns among the major powers and China’s neighbours. As a growing economic power, China is concentrating on the accretion of military might to secure and enhance its own strategic interests.

As a growing economic power, China is concentrating on the accretion of military might to secure and enhance its own strategic interests. China has started asserting its military profile more than ever. Chinese military officers are openly talking of building the world’s strongest military and displacing the US as global hegemon – by means of war if necessary, as one senior officer has suggested.

China, which has the largest standing army in the world at 2.3 million-strong, continues to make the most dramatic improvements in its nuclear force among the five nuclear powers. Improvements in its conventional military capabilities are even more impressive. What has caused concern in Asia and beyond is the opacity of China’s military build-up. A consensus has emerged that Beijing’s real military spending is at least double the announced figure. The official figures of the Chinese government do not include the cost of new weapons purchases, research or other big-ticket items for China’s highly secretive military. The real figures are thought to be much higher.

According to some estimates, China will be spending close to US$ 148 billion on defence as opposed to the officially announced figure of US$ 132 billion.

Chinese Military Intentions

From Washington to Tokyo, from Brussels to Canberra, calls have been rising for China to be more forthcoming about its intentions behind the dramatic military spending pace and the scope of its military capabilities.

Beijing has tried to be more transparent about its defence spending. To try to assuage concerns worldwide about its rapidly growing military capabilities, the Chinese government has released “white papers” on defence for several years now.

China has started asserting its military profile more than ever. Chinese vessels have tackled Somali pirates in the Middle East, the first time Chinese vessels had operated outside Asia. Beijing is also considering sending combat troops abroad in support of UN peacekeeping efforts. The Chinese military has deployed to sea an aircraft carrier it refitted after being purchased from Ukraine, the Liaoning and has also tested a stealth fighter. Chinese military officers are openly talking of building the world’s strongest military and displacing the US as global hegemon – by means of war if necessary, as one senior officer has suggested.

C

hina has announced that it plans to increase its military budget for 2014 to almost US$ 132 billion, a 12.2 per cent rise over last year. This was expected as Beijing has made no bones about its desire to emerge as a dominant military power in the Asia-Pacific. It has been systematically working towards that goal, increasing its military budget consistently for the last several years with a special focus on the navy, allowing it to project power across the region.

“We will comprehensively enhance the revolutionary nature of the Chinese armed forces, further modernise

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them and upgrade their performance and continue to raise their deterrence and combat capabilities in the information age,” Prime Minister Li Keqiang said at the opening session of the National People’s Congress which will formally approve policy already made

by Communist Party leaders.

Unlimited Military Spending

China’s military spending is the second largest in the world, behind that of only the United States. The rate of growth in spending is greater than that of recent years.

Though last year, China’s defence budget increased

This kind of talk might be premature at the moment as the US military remains far more advanced than China’s, which does not yet possess the capability to project power far from Chinese shores. Still, China’s neighbours should worry, especially as the US starts to look increasingly inward.

The exorbitant increase in China’s military budget over the past several years has sparked concerns among the major powers and China’s neighbours. As a growing economic power, China is concentrating on the accretion of military might to secure and enhance its own strategic interests

PLA Leading The Charge

Divisions within China about the future course of nation’s foreign policy are more stark than ever.

It is now being suggested that much like young Japanese officers in the 1930s, young Chinese military officers are increasingly taking charge of strategy with the result that rapid military DR HARSH V PANT growth is shaping the nation’s The writer is Reader in broader foreign policy objectives.

International Relations at Civil-military relations in China King’s College, London are under stress with the PLA and an affiliate with the asserting its pride more forcefully King’s India Institute. than ever before and demanding respect from other countries. “A country needs respect and a military also needs respect,” wrote a major general last year in the PLA’s newspaper.

Not surprisingly, China has been more aggressive in asserting its interests not only vis-à-vis India but also vis-à-vis the United States, the European Union, Japan and Southeast Asian states.

Hawks are gaining ground in the Chinese military as the PLA becomes a powerful force in the country with its budget growing to US$ 200 billion. There is a sense that China can now prevail in conflicts with its regional adversaries. Some voices have openly called for wars.

The Air Force Colonel, Dai Xu, has argued that in light of China’s disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea, a short, decisive war, like the 1962 border clash with India, would deliver long-term peace. This would be possible as Washington would not risk war with China over these territorial spats according to this assessment.

The increasing assertion by the Chinese military and changing balance of power in the nation’s civil-military relations should be a real cause of concern for China’s neighbours. The pace of Chinese military modernisation has already taken the world by surprise and it is clear that the process is going much faster than many had anticipated.

China’s Perception Of India

At a time when India’s own defence modernisation programme is faltering, China’s military transformation should be taken seriously by Indian defence planners.

China’s military assertiveness vis-à-vis Japan and other Southeast Asian nations is a function of its growing confidence in its military capabilities. Indian defence establishment, in contrast, is reduced to begging from its civilian masters for adequate provisions. This has not gone unnoticed around the world and particularly in Beijing and will likely have grave consequences for India’s ability to defend its interests.

China’s growing military spending is the principal reason that the US – by far the biggest defence spender – has announced a shift in military strategy that treats Asia as one of the Pentagon’s priorities at a time when forces in Europe are being sharply cut. Washington has pledged that the military posture in Asia will be increased

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cHinA’s MilitAry rise

while the Pentagon’s budget faces cuts of US$ 485 billion over the next decade.

China has spent heavily on the development and purchase of several major new weapons systems over the past decade. It developed a land-based anti-ship missile system which is to be used to limit US carrier groups’ freedom to navigate in regional waters. It has also built a new submarine base on Hainan Island, on the rim of the South China Sea, is developing a stealth fighter and recently finished refurbishing an old Ukrainian aircraft carrier.

Yet as a percentage of the GDP, the annual defence spending has declined to one of its lowest levels since 1962. And now with a slow-down in the Indian economy, the Indian Prime Minister has suggested that the golden age of defence modernisation is already over

European military spending presents a picture of decline.

The Libya campaign highlighted gaps in the capabilities of European states in tanker aircraft, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Given the continuing pressure on European public finances, there is little chance that defence budgets will reverse their downward trend any time soon. The decline in European defence spending has concerned the US and NATO chiefs at a time when Washington is moving its strategic focus away from Europe and towards Asia.

America’s Look East Orientation

The Asia-Pacific is a fundamentally maritime theatre, as World War II teaches us. Today it includes the busiest maritime choke point in the world – the Strait of Malacca – and an increasing number of countries reliant on the import of energy and raw materials and their participation in the global economy through maritime shipping.

Shipping lanes matter and the Pacific is not simply a place for competition between the United States and China. Despite its pacifist constitution, Japan fields one of the most modern and capable militaries in the world.

South Korea has unique challenges but is not far behind.

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But perhaps even more fascinating is the emergence of the other countries native to the South China Sea – namely Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia. Each country is strengthening itself militarily, not by bulking up existing land forces but investing in high-end, late-model naval hardware.

At this critical juncture in the regional strategic landscape, India’s own defence modernisation programme is faltering despite this being at a time when India is expected to spend US$ 112 billion on capital defence acquisitions over the next five years in what is being described as “one of the largest procurement cycles in the world”. Indian military planners are shifting their focus away from Pakistan as China takes centre-stage in future strategic planning.

Indian Defence Modernisation Stalled

Over the past two decades, the military expenditure of India has been around 2.75 per cent but since India has been experiencing significantly higher rates of economic growth over the last decade compared to any other time in its history, the overall resources that it has been able to allocate to its defence needs has grown significantly. The armed forces for long have been asking for an allocation of 3 per cent of the nation’s GDP to defence. The Indian Parliament has also underlined the need to aim for the target of 3 per cent of the GDP. Yet as a percentage of the GDP, the annual defence spending has declined to one of its lowest levels since 1962. And now with a slowdown in the Indian economy, the Indian Prime Minister has suggested that the golden age of defence modernisation is already over.

But defence expenditure alone will not solve all the problems plaguing Indian defence policy.

More damagingly, for the last several years now the Defence Ministry has been unable to spend its budgetary allocation. The defence acquisition process remains mired in corruption and bureaucratese. India’s indigenous defence production industry has time and again made its inadequacy to meet the demands of the armed forces apparent. The Indian armed forces keep waiting for arms while the Finance Ministry is left with unspent budget year after year. Most large procurement programmes get delayed resulting in cost escalation and technological or strategic obsolescence of the budgeted items. The present Defence Minister has been one of the most ineffective leaders of India’s defence establishment.

The Indian government is yet to demonstrate the political will to tackle the defence policy paralysis that is rendering all the claims of India’s rise as a military power increasingly hollow. The capability differential between China and India is rising at an alarming rate. Without a radical overhaul of the national security apparatus, Indian defence planners will not be able to manage China’s rise. An effective defence policy is not merely about deterring China. But if not tackled urgently, India will lose the confidence to conduct its foreign policy unhindered from external and internal security challenges.

alienated neighbours

GeOstrAteGy

INDIA’S

TROUBLED NEIGHBOURHOOD Concerned as we are with the present, today’s geopolitical reality cannot be undone and not many would wish to see it altered. Even our limited attempts at South Asian cooperation have floundered in the face of constant disharmony and distrust.

I

ndia is located in a troubled neighbourhood. History is determined by the work of humans; geography is bestowed by God. South Asian geography was further compounded by the fact that it was also shaped by a colonial empire in its own national interests. When it departed in 1947, what was till then a single geoeconomic entity became in time three fractured nation states. It could still have been three countries within a single nation, federated in ways that could have been mutually agreed upon. Instead the violence of this division left behind a lasting adverse impact.

It is pointless today to look back and think of what might have been. But, a united South Asia would have not merely been a valid geostrategic entity, but one that would have shared its civilisational values with a wider world and set an example to others. Values of pluralism, tolerance and liberalism in all its forms and a respect for diversity that flourished here, would have provided an example to others. Let us humbly accept that it is not the reality today.

momentum of which seems now poised to increase. Yet, paradoxically India may well find an ally in China to cooperatively address these issues.

While Buddhism’s peaceful resistance is less threatening, the influence of Islam on Xinjiang from growing radicalisation poses a much stronger challenge to Beijing.

Post the recent Kunming railway station terrorism incident China has now increased its surveillance and monitoring all across South and Southeast Asia. But, alternate policies take years to evolve and even longer to implement. A greater economic

MAJOR GENERAL DIPANKAR BANERJEE AVSM (RETD)

The writer has served in all operational theatres and the wars of the Indian Army.

Commissioned into the 1st Gorkha Rifles in December 1960 he has been an instructor at the Indian Military Academy, the College of Combat and twice at the Defence Services Staff College (once as Chief Instructor Army). He attended the Staff College at Camberley, UK and the National Defence College, New Delhi. For the last 23 years he has held Director level positions at leading think tanks in India and the region specialising in international security and strategy.

Religious Extremism

But, concerned as we are with the present, today’s geopolitical reality cannot be undone and not many would wish to see it altered. Even our limited attempts at South Asian cooperation have floundered in the face of constant disharmony and distrust. Today, it is made much worse by the spectre of terrorism guided by hatred and intolerance. The concept that the ‘other’s very existence is unacceptable leads to a new call for ‘jihad’. The hope is to create a new ‘Caliphate’ under Shariat. With this backdrop a quick tour de horizon of the neighbourhood will be in order.

Chinese Headaches

Tibet and Xinjiang continue to be in internal turmoil with implications for a wider region.

These remain China’s principal strategic challenges today, next only to the South China Sea. Beijing realised this soon after 9/11 but policy changes took time. The leadership in Zhongnanhai remains deeply concerned. Enormous developmental assistance and improvement in standards of living, have not been able to address issues of religious and cultural identities. Population transfer within their homeland leads to local confrontations.

This has resulted in counter violence by the people, the

integration with China’s south west (Yunnan and Sichuan provinces) through the BCIM (Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar) cooperation is likely to be of great benefit to all.

But, it seems that ethnic terrorism issues too will overlap.

Myanmar Convulsions

India’s north-east is by and large peaceful today, though lacking stability due to the absence of economic growth

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GeOstrAteGy

and the possibility of a better future for its rapidly growing youth. Regional cooperation is expected to produce benefits through trade and connectivity. If it does not then they will be enticed to vote with their feet and seek greater autonomy to improve their conditions. This will mean more violence.

Rohingya disturbances in Myanmar threaten to open up both internal and external discord and may pose a new challenge to security of the region.

Bangladesh Imbroglio

Bangladesh’s stability and prosperity over the last decade has been notable. Its GDP growth was in many years the highest in South Asia. Yet, fault lines in its society lie deep and are not easily bridged. The spread of violence since mid 2013 has opened up and deepened these fissures. There remains a real possibility that fundamentalist forces through outside support can again raise their ugly head to cause future trouble.

Building stable and constructive relations with Dhaka must receive higher priority from New Delhi in the future.

Softening In Sri Lanka

Conditions in the Indian Ocean and Sri Lanka are more favourable today than ever before. There is an effective mechanism developed recently for trilateral maritime cooperation between India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. Indian initiative in enlisting the support of littoral countries for cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Oceans is again promising.

India-Sri Lanka relations may again look up after the recent abstention by India in the UN Human Rights Council vote in March 2014. Though future tensions between Sinhala and Tamil peoples may recur if Tamil concerns are not addressed properly.

Af-Pak Enigma

This brings us to the Af-Pak problem, perhaps the most challenging in the world, from 2015. It is a region with 200 million people, with nuclear weapons and with more arms per capita than any other part of the world. Yet, violent contending ideologies confront each other every day. Finally, it still retains the potential to disturb the entire world literally with a bang as it did in late 2001 at the Twin Towers in New York. The forces of violence here do not originate in the state, but with the tens of millions of young people who have no access to any productive knowledge in today’s world.

These are the soldiers of religious radicalism.

India’s Woes

Let us for a while look within ourselves as well, for many of our security challenges lie within. A vibrant democracy has not been able to reduce corruption, address even in a small way the growing aspirations of our many millions of young people or provide a sense of hope for the future. Only two million new jobs were provided in a period of last ten years, when 24 million entered the job market. Governance has failed the world’s biggest democracy. This crisis of confidence has the potential to lead to internal turmoil, whose one manifestation, ‘left wing armed extremism’, is already with us in a big way.

It is these major challenges to India that will call for a careful, balanced, resourced approach to securing the heartland of India. The challenges from this quarter are more urgent and greater than from external conventional military capability or even proxy terrorist forces. How then do we strengthen Homeland Security?

There are two dimensions to homeland security in India

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today. One is based on threats from external terrorist influences. The other is countering left wing extremism or Naxalism, through direct confrontation and armed force. In both cases these are likely to be aided and in collaboration with internal elements within the country who have already been influenced.

What are the key elements of Homeland Security response that this will call for?

Structural Reorganisations  Pure law and order has always been a provincial subject under the Constitution. This must change. Today’s external threats will be over a wider area, with sophisticated technologies and will be more complex. Control over all counter-measures has to be centralised and made more effective. The 24 hour delay in responding to the Mumbai attack is no longer acceptable.  Equally, intelligence for such attacks will need to be built-up carefully and painstakingly and must be centrally coordinated.  With long and vulnerable coastline a fresh approach to security from the sea needs to be ensured. Major recommendations have been made in these areas in earlier studies, but counter-measures will have to be better resourced.

Force Allocation

 It is important to accept that greater specialisations are required to counter terrorists today and a law and order approach will not work. Hence:  Follow up on one force one task.  Greater training and specialised equipment with each such force.

Enhancing Border Security

 India’s land borders too are long and complex, ranging from deserts to swamps to dense jungle and high altitude mountains. While India is in the process of re-examining and liberalising its visa policies, methods must be found to ensure that hostile elements are not allowed free or easy entry. Access control will be the key. While India cannot shut itself out from the world, it must do so against hostile forces. Cooperation with the Interpol and other friendly foreign countries will be essential.

Reliance On High Technology Support

 Increasingly, interdiction of terrorists is planned well in advance of their actual infiltration. This will call for the ability to have effective international capability to locate, trace and deter their ability to penetrate our defences.

A High Technology Approach

 It is clear today that old and earlier approaches to Homeland Security, by deploying more and more ground forces and trying to provide physical security will no longer work. Surveillance across borders, penetrating hostile command structures and greater reliance on electronic means will be necessary.

As the nation prepares to select the next government, let us have the courage to recognise the real challenges that confront the nation. We need also to accept that a strong Centre with a clear mandate and later good governance and adequate attention to the security domain alone will ensure the nation’s well-being.

homeland security

reVAMP leGAl frAMeWOrK leave the valley under the open threats of the terrorists.

Because of a weak central government which does not want to make even a show of force, anti-India forces are getting an upper hand in the country in the absence of any law to deal with the terrorists. It is a recognised fact that most terrorist attacks are perpetrated by the Muslim groups like the Indian Mujahideen, though the majority of Muslim population is loyal to India.

Indian Mujahideen

DEFINE AND DEAL WITH TERRORISM Increasing international cooperation against terrorism has been a shot in the arm. Since 2012, countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have deported several big prize catches, with the most recent being Abdul Wahid Siddibappa alias ‘Khan’, an alleged IM financier, from Dubai.

T

he greatest blessings for a common man in India are newspapers and magazines which at least try to portray and become unpaid and free providers of information and intelligence as to what has been happening in the country. Left to itself, any government would like to portray that all is well and hunky-dory in the country. Hardly any government version of what actually happened especially in important matters, whether it be terrorism or any other scam, is released. Newspapers at their own peril and initiative do it. It is probably universally true.

Strengthen Anti-terror Laws

But the comparison of India with other democracies ends here. Any other democratic nation that faces such a threat of terrorism is not apologetic about tackling the menace and their laws change with the changing circumstances.

In spite of the increase in terrorism incidents, our government scrapped all laws intended to curb terrorism whether it be Prevention of Terrorism Act or TADA (Terrorist and Disruptive Activities (Prevention) Act) in the interest of vote bank politics.

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Security agencies are facing the terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir and other states on daily basis against so called jihadis and plenty of home-grown and Pakistan trained terrorists. The government is twiddling its thumbs, as if all is well. Earlier the standard reaction by the government used to be that “It is a cowardly act and the government will deal with it firmly”. Now even that tenuous assurance is not there.

So much so, the terrorists or their henchmen dictate terms in Jammu and Kashmir and choose the rationale for strikes. Their instigation ranges from anti-India statements amounting to sedition or providing camouflage for a Kashmiri returning from Pakistan after twenty years stay on the ground that he wants to rehabilitate himself in India!

The government of the day in Jammu and Kashmir and the Indian government are more worried about the Kashmiris who migrated to Pakistan to get training and take up arms against India, than about rehabilitating the minorities of 3.70 lakh, who were evicted and forced to

Since 2008, more than 120 Indian Mujahdeen operatives have been held across the country. While it is clear that the IM is no more limited to a particular state or region – the recent captures show it is spread all over, including Goa, Kerala, Orissa and Chhattisgarh – since Yasin’s arrest, the Patna attack of October 2013 has been the only one in India with an IM link. According to officials, the breakthrough in the war against India’s home-grown terror outfit was in August 2013 arrest of Yasin Bhatkal, an IM co-founder and the head of its operations in India.

Yasin was arrested from Nepal, where he had set up three different hideouts in the scenic town of Pokhra.

Increasing international cooperation has been another shot in the arm. Since 2012, countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have deported several big prize catches, with the most recent being Abdul Wahid Siddibappa alias ‘Khan’, an alleged IM financier, from Dubai. He was identified based on Yasin’s interrogation and arrested following a red corner notice. However, there has been a setback in getting him to India. With Delhi delaying sending a response, he was arrested and now has to be extradited rather than deported – a longer process. Let us not underestimate this group and other anti-Indian groups, who have their sympathisers and supporters in the local milieu, who provide shelter, act as guides and provide them logistic support. At the top of it, our laws are not old, but ancient and the governments of the day, at the centre have believed in letting the sleeping dogs lie.

How does the government expect any witness, after gross delay, to give any evidence against the dreaded terrorists, without any Witness Protection Act!

Inadmissible Evidence

It is quixotic, that the law does not believe the agency or agencies fighting terrorism as trustworthy, as no government has repealed the law that a confession made to the Police is not admissible in law or the statements recorded by the Police, cannot be used to corroborate but only to contradict the evidence in the Court. In fact, there are numerous instances, where witnesses have turned hostile, even after recording statements before the judicial officials.

In one of the latest gaffes the Home Minister has written to the states about the centre’s plans to provide screening committees to review terror cases against Muslims languishing in jails without proper trial, though there is no law which existed under POTA. Incidentally, internal discussions within the ministry in 2012, had thrown up a suggestion for setting up advisory committees to review cases of undertrials in states, irrespective of their religion or community. According to the proposal, the panel could

comprise a senior IPS official, a judicial officer and a serving state government official and undertake visits to prisons to examine the cases against undertrials and recommend release of those who had served a period equal to or more than the maximum sentence for their alleged crime or were in custody beyond the laid down time-limit for filing of chargesheet.

There was also a suggestion that the term of this panel be limited to three months, which would ensure that its review was complete ahead of the Lok Sabha poll. However, the proposal never went beyond the discussion stage.

Shortage Of Judges

JOGINDER SINGH IPS

The writer is former Director of Central Bureau of Investigation and is best known for bringing the Bofors papers from the Swiss Courts to New Delhi. As a student he was selected for the Indian Police Service at the age of 20. He is both a regular columnist of leading dailies in India and an author of repute, with 50 books (including versions in Indian and foreign languages) to his credit.

Instead of examining and remedying the causes of delay in the disposal of cases the government took a short cut to appease. Out of the 906 judicial posts of Supreme and High Courts, there are as many as 252 vacancies. We need even as per the recommendation of the Law Commission made in 1988 about 75,000 judges, whereas the actual position is of 13,000 plus. For this the Union government passes the buck that it is the job of the state governments to create and fill up the posts. Even in the matters of Direct Cash Transfer Schemes, which are within the purview of the state government, the central government is directly sending the money, most of which is siphoned off en route to the beneficiaries. Even in the matter of Police, there are about 21 lakh sanctioned posts, with about 5 lakh vacancies. As improving the criminal justice system will not benefit the political parties, they are content to pay lip service to it. The Supreme Court in Ganesh Narayan vs S Bangarappa, observed: “the slow motion becomes much slower motion when politically powerful or high and influential persons figure as accused”.

The Supreme Court cited the following observations of Krishna Iyer, in Special Courts Bill, 1978: “Courts are less to blame than the Code made by Parliament for dawdling and government are guilty of denying or delaying basic amenities for the judiciary to function smoothly. Justice is a Cinderella in our scheme”. Even so, leaving VVIP accused to be dealt with by the routinely procrastinating legal process is to surrender to interminable delays as an inevitable evil. Therefore, we should not be finicky about absolute equality in due process and must be creative in innovating procedures compelled by special situations.

Roopleen rightly said and it is worth bearing in mind by the government for dealing with terrorism “There is nothing in this world that you cannot do.

Every goal is achievable. You just need to focus on your objectives, be persistent in your efforts and work hard to make it happen. There can be no hurdle uncrossable, no obstacle invincible and no stumbling block insurmountable.”

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MANAGING ILLEGAL MIGRANTS

After liberation of Bangladesh in 1971, though the two countries tried to resolve border disputes, only a few minor disputes were resolved. Any step towards the direction of solving the border disputes between the two countries needs political will to make adjustments and compromises which the two countries are not ready to make due to unprecedented rise of chauvinist forces in both countries.

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n 1971, falsifying the two nation theory of Sir Syed Ahmad Khan and Vir Savarkar, East Pakistan liberated from its predator West Pakistan and a sovereign Bangladesh came into existence. Many reasons are responsible for the birth of Bangladesh, but the two factors that transpired its creation were: Conflicts on the basis of primordial identities erupted soon after partition of India in 1947, which gradually turned into a demand for a separate nation on the basis of separate language and culture and revolutions, rebellions and counter-culture movements of 1960s provided a perfect environment in which the demand for a separate Bangladesh flourished and fought for. In

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most of the other tensions are related to it. India and Bangladesh share 2,429 miles of land border, co-share 180 miles of maritime border and also fifty-four rivers which flow from India into Bangladesh. Most of these border related disputes exist since 1947 partition of India. After liberation of Bangladesh in 1971, though the two countries tried to resolve border disputes, only a few minor disputes were resolved. Any step towards the direction of solving the border disputes between the two countries needs political will to make adjustments and compromises which the two countries are not ready to make due to unprecedented rise of chauvinist forces in both countries.

Land Transfer Agreements

According to Indira Gandhi-Sheikh Mujibur Rahman treaty of 16 May 1974, India and Bangladesh were to hand over the sovereignty of Tin Bigha corridor (178 x 85 sq meter) and South Berubari to each other.

Bangladesh handed over the sovereignty of the South Berubari to India in 1974, but India did not reciprocate.

After a long gap, in September 2011 instead of handing over Tin Bigha corridor to Bangladesh, India has given it on a hundred years lease. The agreement included exchange of enclaves, involving 51,000 people spread over 111 Indian enclaves in Bangladesh and 51 Bangladesh enclaves in India. India has granted 24-hour access to Bangladeshi citizens in the corridor. Though this agreement was signed in 2011, it has not been ratified by the Indian parliament. No political party in India wants to take the risk of getting tag of anti-national and lose its right wing political constituencies.

India and Bangladesh share maritime boundary, including the location of the land boundary terminus between them, the delimitation of the territorial sea, the continental shelf within and beyond 200 nautical miles (370 km) and exclusive economic zones. To resolve their bilateral disputes over maritime borders India and Bangladesh sought assistance from international tribunal, which in December 2013 concluded hearing from both parties.

Contentious Water Sharing

initial stage India played a role by providing material aid to the revolutionaries, but later on with an aim to achieve a permanent strategic upper hand against Pakistan, Indian military fought a war with its arch rival and got Bangladesh liberated.

Shortlived Respite

Against political anticipation by the then Indian policy makers, Bangladesh, after assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975, started following a different trajectory. Suddenly, various bilateral disputes between them started erupting. Out of many the border disputes between them is the most important one because

Rivers too act as a border between two countries. During Major Ziaur Rehman’s tenure political bonhomie between India and Bangladesh ended. Major Ziaur Rehman’s government took up the issue of Ganga water sharing to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), whose resolution obliquely compelled the Indian government to sign Ganga water sharing agreement with it. That was the first instance when Bangladesh challenged India with the help of the international organisation. In 1996, after many ad hoc arrangements to share trans-border water, India and Bangladesh signed water sharing

Any step towards the direction of solving the border disputes between the two countries needs political will to make adjustments and compromises which the two countries are not ready to make due to unprecedented rise of chauvinist forces in both countries

treaty. In 2012 the political leaders from two countries almost made a deal over sharing of water from river Teesta, but could not sign it, after Ms Mamta Banerjee, Chief Minister of West Bengal, declined to release that quantity of water to Bangladesh. Since then requests from Ms Sheikh Hasina and Dr Manmohan Singh, to re-visit decision over Teesta River water sharing has been ignored

by Ms Mamta Banerjee.

Illegal Migrants

DR AMIT RANJAN

The writer is working as Research Fellow in Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), New Delhi. He has done his PhD from School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi.

Due to persisting disputes significant portion of land border cannot be fenced and difficult to be guarded by men, so it is easier to trespass. The 4,096 km long and porous India-Bangladesh border makes for easy crossing. Namrata Goswami writes that the illegal immigration of Bengali Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh has continued unabated, leading to skewed demographic profiles of Assam’s districts bordering Bangladesh and thereafter, turning several adjoining districts of Assam to Muslim majority. According to an estimate there are about six million illegal Bangladeshi migrants in India. Out of that 1.4 million have migrated to India over the past decade. Giving a micro picture, Concern Universal, an international NGO, estimates that everyday about 50 Bangladeshis cross illegally into India. Most of the migrants add to the manual workforce in Assam and other adjoining states of India. They are primarily engaged as rickshaw pullers, house construction workers, house painters, gardners, daily wage labourers etc. These migrant workers work very hard, at odd hours and in the most arduous activities which local Assamese labourers are unwilling to do. Significantly, they work at cheap rates. This creates tensions and conflicts between the working class from two sides of the border. Presence of migrants has also exacerbated social tensions between the locals, which is being exploited by the political groups for their political benefits. Many times in post-1971 Bodos and Muslims have engaged in violent conflicts. These conflicts are being wrongly portrayed as Hindu-Muslim riots which is not correct because 12 per cent of Bodos are Christian and majority of them follow Brahma sect and traditional Bathou religion. The main cause of their tension is economic: The Bangladeshi migrants are being accused for encroaching fertile lands in Assam.

Criminal Activities

Besides the mentioned type of illegal migrants, who cross border to earn their livelihoods, there is a group which uses this to carry out illegal activities like human trafficking, smuggling etc. Many of the brothels in India are packed with girls from Bangladesh. Many of the women abandoned by their husbands, trafficked across the porous border have entered into prostitution. Some willingly enter into this profession to earn money to look after their family. Quite often, lured with lucrative jobs, young Bangladeshi girls and boys are smuggled to India and the Gulf for prostitution.

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triBute

THE LEGEND – LATE SHRI KF RUSTAMJI

FOUNDING FATHER OF BSF

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he founding Father of BSF, Khusro Faramurz Rustamji was born on 22nd May 1916 at Kamptee (near Nagpur), Maharasthra and grew up in Nagpur.

Late Shri KF Rustamji was selected for the prestigious Imperial Police (IP) in 1938, the forerunner of the present day Indian Police Services (IPS). Within four years of service, in November 1942, he was awarded the Indian Police Medal for overpowering dacoits in Madhya Pradesh (MP) and for tackling the riots at Nagpur.

In 1952, he joined the Intelligence Bureau (IB) as Deputy Director and besides other duties, was appointed as the Chief Security Officer to Prime Minister Shri Jawaharlal Nehru for six years.

The cross-border migration from Bangladesh to India is not a new rather a pre-1971 phenomenon. The partition of India in 1947 failed to break socio-economic ties between people living on border areas.

During the liberation war in 1971 millions of Bangladeshis, to save themselves from atrocities of Pakistani Army, migrated to India; out of that many did not return after the war ended The cross-border migration from Bangladesh to India is not a new rather a pre-1971 phenomenon. The partition of India in 1947 failed to break socio-economic ties between people living on border areas. People used to cross border for various purposes by offering bribes to border guards.

During the liberation war in 1971 millions of Bangladeshis, to save themselves from atrocities of Pakistani Army, migrated to India; out of that many did not return after the war ended. Large number of migrants were either Hindus or Muslims. They took shelter in West Bengal, Meghalaya, Assam, Tripura, Mizoram and Manipur. After the end of 1971 War and formation of Bangladesh, most of the Hindu migrants got accommodated in India. As migration created socio-economic tensions, in 1983 Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal) Act was enacted by Mrs Indira Gandhi government. The main purpose of that act was to make the illegal migrants return to Bangladesh. That has not happened; instead through this act many of the illegal migrants became citizens of India with a right to vote. The major lacuna with this act was the accuser or the police have to prove whether the accused is a citizen or not.

This act replaced the Foreigners Act of 1946. These newly created voters helped their political masters to win elections in national and state level polls. Due to impact of illegal

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migrants on state’s politics the IMDT act was contested by the other political parties. In Assam the regional political party Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) emerged with the sole promise of ridding the state of illegal foreign migrants. This was an issue during the Assam accord signed in 1985 between the Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and leaders of All Assam Students Union (AASU) and All Assam Gana Sangram Parishad (AAGSP). The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) too supported the AGP in its political mission. As a result a legal battle was fought against the IMDT Act. In 2005 this act was struck down by the Supreme Court of India.

At present also the issue of illegal migrants dominates over various other issues in Assam and adjoining regions.

The regional as well as national level political parties make it an issue for their political benefits. Besides the non-fencing of major portion of land border between India and Bangladesh, another reason for illegal migration, human trafficking and other illicit activities across the border is burgeoning corruption on border check posts. The border guards, after taking bribe or sexual favours, let the illicit activities flourish across the borders.

The International borders of India with Pakistan, both East and West were being manned by the respective state Police forces till the Indo-Pak war in September 1965.

During the second Indo-Pak War of 1965 the inadequacies of managing such a long land border had become quite evident. It was then decided by the government of India to raise a single force to guard the vast International Boundary between India and Pakistan (East and West) on the recommendations of the Study Group and Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri. BSF was raised under the charismatic leadership of Shri KF Rustamji, IP, on 1st December 1965 with 25 Battalions.

Rustamji had seen of his own the War of 1965 and had observed the weaknesses of the Police. All the experiences gained from 1965 War, Shri Rustamji applied them in the Indo-Pak War in 1971 and formed Mukti Vahini. BSF fought an aggressive and unconventional war. Shri VV Giri, former President of India applauded the role of BSF in the 1971 War, as under: “The role of the BSF in 1971 War won for it the unstinted admiration of the entire Nation.

The BSF forged great camaraderie with the Indian Army, with whom they fought shoulder to shoulder”.

On 31st of May, 1974, Rustamji retired from BSF and consequently joined as Special Secretary in the Ministry of Home Affairs. He structured the BSF, ITBP, CISF in the

Central Police Organisation and initiated the formation of the Coast Guards. Rustamji was awarded with Padma Vibhushan in 1991 for his exceptional contribution. The legend passed away on March 2, 2003 in Mumbai at the age of 87.

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EMERGING EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL SCENARIOS

Sino-Pak co-operation in the nuclear field, apart from its military-strategic overtones, also has an economic angle to it as a Sino-Pak counter to the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal of 2008. Similarly, trade in missiles including the development of Gwadar Port and the construction of road and communications infrastructure in Pakistani-occupied Kashmir – also have the convenient effect of keeping India on tenterhooks in the region.

I

ndia’s geo-political panorama is beset with unprecedented challenges with the Afghan state preparing for the 2014 NATO withdrawal. Pakistan has deliberately cultivated China post 9/11. There are two reasons; one – Pakistan is unsure of its future relations with US; two – it considers China as an emerging power which is friendly to her as against US, which is seen as a potentially unfriendly power. China views Pakistan from the aspect of facilitating security of Indian Ocean sea lanes for its energy and trade traffic and also a land corridor to the ocean for the same purpose. Pakistan is also an asset for Chinese land based energy pipeline dream. It may be noted that US will continue to militarily dominate sea based energy route. Land based pipelines however are far less vulnerable due to strategic and turbulent power shift underway in energy producing regions of the world. In many such places, advantage already lies with China and Russia. China is also sensitive to the export of fundamentalism and nuclear flash point risks from Pakistan and will prefer their neutralisation. Thus for the long-term, China has already laid the foundation through strategic investments to fill the vacuum that would be created by US / NATO withdrawal.

Pak-China Treaty 2005

It was signed in April 2005. This type of treaty is the first one with a South Asian nation (others are North Korea

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1961, Myanmar 1961, Japan 1978, Russia 2001, Uzbekistan 2005 and Afghanistan 2006).  It is quite similar to treaty with Russia. Identical objectives are: Opposition to hegemony (big power), counter-terrorism and energy cooperation.

Russian treaty paved way for SCO and joint Sino-Russian military exercises. Pak-China treaty was preceded by joint anti-terrorism exercises (2004) and followed by joint search and rescue navy drill (November 2005).  The treaty conforms to Pakistan’s strategy of using its strategic ties with China as leverage against perceived threat from India. Pakistan could be going beyond that. Leveraging the treaty to secure against future US direct intervention (may be jointly with India) or against any contingency. Growing list of latest weapon systems / nuclear energy / infrastructure related ties support this inference.

for both Pakistan and China.

China-Pakistan Joint Ventures

These are mostly of strategic nature and mainly through public sector enterprises. Major projects are:  Karakoram Highway  Gwadar Deep Sea Port  Pakistan Aeronautical Complex, Kahuta (JF-17)  Chashma Nuclear Power Plant  Indus Highway  Jhar Coal Development  Saindak Metal (Copper / Gold) project  Pakistan Cycle and Industrial Cooperative, Lahore  Partner in China led Asia Pacific Space Cooperation (APSCO) of seven countries The Karakoram Highway is the most prominent example: a treacherous 1,300 km corridor that connects the Chinese mainland with the Gwadar Port facility, a key strategic foothold just off the southern edge of the Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistani and Chinese officials hope to supplement the roadway with a 2,000 km high-speed rail link between Kashgar and Gwadar, bringing billions of dollars in investment to the region. As a result, bilateral trade between Beijing and Islamabad expanded to over US$ 12 billion last year and 120 Chinese companies are now operating in Pakistan.

China has also been expanding its cultural diplomacy with Pakistan as of late. In downtown Islamabad’s sprawling Rose and Jasmine Garden, Beijing spent 3 billion rupees to build the Pakistan-China Friendship Center, a state-of-the-art performance, conference and exhibition space boasting an 800-seat auditorium, eight conference halls and 105 residential rooms. Projects like this are indeed solidifying the goodwill for China in Pakistan.

Institutions such as the China Study Center, inaugurated at the Islamic International University Islamabad last year, along with engineering and science scholarships for Pakistani students to study in the mainland, will be critical in efforts to forge cultural linkages with elites.

Sino-Pak co-operation in the nuclear field, apart from its military-strategic overtones, also has an economic

angle to it. Thus, though the latest agreement on the supply of Chinese nuclear reactors to Pakistan clearly falls short of Beijing’s commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it needs to be viewed primarily in the light of a US-China dynamic, as a Sino-Pak counter to the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal of 2008. Similarly, trade in missiles and other conventional weaponry with Pakistan follows a pattern of Chinese arms sales that satisfies both geopolitical and economic motives.

Sino-Pak co-operation – including the development of Gwadar Port and the construction of road and communications infrastructure in Pakistani-occupied Kashmir – also have the convenient effect of keeping India on tenterhooks in the region.

Continuing Strategic Threat

China has recently announced plans to extend the Qinghai-Tibet railway to the southern Tibetan city of Xigaze, located less than 160 kilometers (100 miles) from the border with India. The extension will bring China’s rail system within 160 kilometers of the border with India’s Sikkim state – one of three contested borders between the two countries. In recent years, China has moved aggressively to strengthen its infrastructural and security presence along the border with north-eastern India’s Arunachal Pradesh state, using Lhasa as a base of operations.

By extending a rail line some 260 kilometers westward to Xigaze,

BRIG (DR) ANIL SHARMA (RETD)

The writer is currently Professor cum Director-SA in the University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun and Joint Director at Institute of National Security Studies, New Delhi, as also Senior Research Fellow with Forum for Strategic and Security Studies, New Delhi. He is former head of the Office of Net Assessment, HQ Integrated Defence Staff and retired from armed forces in April, 2008 and, since then, has been actively involved in Research Project of 13th Finance Commission, National Security Secretariat, NCAER, DRDO and the USI of India.

ANSHU PALIWAL

The co-writer is Research Associate in the team headed by Brig (Dr) Sharma for research in Strategic Management.

 For China also, India angle as strategic US partner in suspected counter China alliance may have played its part. Chinese may have assumed that in the event of future China-US strategic competition becoming acute, Pakistan would be treaty bound in not supporting the US.  Treaty is a convenient tool to hedge against India,

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it will give Chinese security forces a strategic advantage and further shift the balance of power along the India-China border.

Pakistan, thus, remains the threat to other countries in the region with its contagion, even as its own institutions and society succumb to its progressive contamination. Western media and governments however, continue to extend the cover of an incredible ‘credible deniability’ to Islamabad, because they lack will and consensus on punitive action against this rogue, nuclear-armed state A Chinese strategist in an article has suggested couple of years ago, that India should be broken into 20 to 30 parts with the help of friendly nations. He also opines that India is not a natural nation but it is primarily united on the basis of Hindu religion. The article by Zhan Lue published on the official website of a leading Chinese think tank China International Institute for Strategic Studies (CIISS), says that a little action by Beijing could easily break the great Indian federation. The author had also suggested that China should take help from friendly countries like Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan to achieve the objective of breaking-up India. The author particularly wants China to support ULFA in Assam, which is fighting for separate homeland. It also sets the agenda for setting up a separate Bengali state, which can unite the Bengalis to create one Bengali nation.

Vulnerabilities

Developments through 2013 indicated that there is little scope for complacency. Indeed, Jammu and Kashmir registered a rise in fatalities, from 117 in 2012, to 181 in 2013. This was compounded by an escalating campaign of ceasefire violations by Pakistan’s Army with at least 195 violations recorded through 2013, resulting in 10 SF fatalities, as against 93 such violations in 2012, resulting in three SF fatalities.

In the Maoist belt, fatalities rose from 367 to 421 between 2012 and 2013; Islamist terrorist attacks outside Jammu and Kashmir accounted for one fatality in 2012 and 29 in 2013. In the north-east, at least two states registered an increase in total fatalities between 2012 and 2013: Assam, from 91 to 101; and Meghalaya, from 48 to 60.

Moreover, 205 of the country’s 640 districts continued to be afflicted by varying intensities of chronic subversive, insurgent and terrorist activity in 2013, including 120 districts where the Maoists remained active; 20 districts in Jammu and Kashmir afflicted by Pakistan-backed Islamist separatist terrorism; and 65 districts in six north-eastern states where numerous ethnicities based terrorist and insurgent formations operate.

Significantly, grave dangers of reversal – including the impact of developments in Afghanistan and a creeping implosion in Pakistan – exist.

Such a suggestion by a Chinese strategic expert has increased the concern and distrust in the Indian strategic and security establishment.

Likely Scenarios

Risk Unabated

 Utopia (Stable Pak)  Using US and EU aid and Chinese strategic investments Pakistan has considerably succeeded in restoring its internal balance. A modern democratic society would emerge.

Pakistan Army and ISI have professionalised and are part of democratic governance with an assertive role in state affairs. It would join US in great oil game.

Pakistan, consumed by internal turbulence, continues to externalise its instability through proxy wars and support to Islamist terrorism in Afghanistan and India, even as it seeks to opportunistically harness other insurgencies (including the ethnic extremist movements of India’s northeast) in the neighbourhood, to its campaign of regional destabilisation. According to data available, at least 5,379 terrorism-related fatalities were recorded across Pakistan in 2013. The actual figures could be much higher due to control over media. Civilians, however, have paid the higher price, with 3,001 killed in 2013. Terrorism in Pakistan has already resulted in at least 1,092 fatalities, including 551 civilians, 183 SF personnel and 358 militants in just the first quarter of 2014.

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society succumb to its progressive contamination. Western media and governments however, continue to extend the cover of an incredible ‘credible deniability’ to Islamabad, because they lack will and consensus on punitive action against this rogue, nuclear-armed state.

In the backdrop of ongoing strategic arguments, three scenarios could emerge in future. These are as follows:

 Kashmir issue is resolved or frozen on as it is where it is basis. Water disputes have been settled on the basis of Indus Water Treaty.  India has also emerged successfully into a major power centre.

Despite the overwhelming damage terrorism has inflicted on Pakistan, the country’s establishment shows no signs of abandoning this device as an instrument of state policy, particularly for its strategic ambitions in India and Afghanistan. These proclivities assume dangerous proportions in view of the ‘withdrawal’ of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan and the high-stakes scramble for control of Kabul that is expected to follow.

 This coupled with US influence has somewhat checked China’s hegemonistic aspirations in Afghanistan but Chinese strategic engagement with Pakistan continues as before.

Pakistan, thus, remains the threat to other countries in the region with its contagion, even as its own institutions and

 Hostile Pathos (Stable and Anti-India Pak)  With conditions prevailing similar to Utopia, Islamabad,

May 2014 Defence AnD security Alert

 Globally jehadi influence is waning. US has succeeded in Afghanistan. Iran has reached an understanding with US.

extended its so-called Islamic purity to the Kashmir Valley by instigating the locals to carry out ethnic cleansing of the minority communities.  Thus the monster in it started ethnic cleansing in the valley; and engineered demographic changes through Bangladesh in West Bengal, Assam and the north-east.

Saudi Arabia and other Islamic oil-rich countries pitched in with the petro-dollars in support. All in the cause of the illusion called Ummah and establishing the Caliphate!  Islamabad, Dhaka and now Kathmandu, spurred on by Beijing, have united with the singular agenda to unhook the valley and the north-east from the Union. In addition, they are instigating the Maoists who control almost forty per cent of the Union’s territory, to set up a parallel government and ultimately, win the elections in pockets of their influence and impose regressive authoritarian governments in tune with their own regime.  Oh God (Unstable Pak)  USA has pulled out of Afghanistan in end 2014, claiming victory. It has left a small contingent to support Afghan forces as also to keep a wary eye on Pakistan’s risk of its nukes falling in to radicals’ hands. US efforts at reaching rapprochement with Iran have partially succeeded but there is long road ahead. Afghanistan remains violent, with increasing levels of drug trafficking. Global energy and economic situation has taken a downturn.  There is also speculation of a Sino-Pak condominium to manage Afghanistan once US-led forces have withdrawn, with the Chinese providing economic aid and investments and Pakistan taking on the security duties. More importantly, from the Chinese perspective, Pakistani co-operation would be essential to keeping lines of communication open with the Taliban – which could possibly return in force to power in Afghanistan – as well as to controlling the spread of Islamic radicalism from Pakistan into Xinjiang. This is probably the worst-case scenario for India.  Mutual distrust prevailing amongst various elements of Pakistan civil society makes it vulnerable to outside influence. There is a severe water scarcity in the country.

Controversy over Kalabagh dam has fuelled regional divide due to divergent perceptions of Sindh, Baluch, NWFP and Punjab provinces. Baluch, Pashtoons and Sindh start demanding unviable degree of autonomy / independence. Increasing incidents of rioting, sectarian / regional clashes take place. Large-scale destruction and rioting in Karachi cripples Pakistan economy.  Fundamentalist elements in Pakistan Army and ISI escalate cross-border terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir beyond India’s threshold of tolerance. India launches punitive air and ground raids against terrorist and military targets in Jammu and Kashmir. Finding a non-responsive situation, USA and EU stop / control economic and arms aid to Pakistan.  The self-destructive path that Islamabad chose will either splinter the Pakistani state into many parts or it will wither away – a case of natural progression to its

Developments through 2013 indicated that there is little scope for complacency. Indeed, Jammu and Kashmir registered a rise in fatalities compounded by an escalating campaign of ceasefire violations by Pakistan’s Army. In the Maoist belt, fatalities rose from 367 to 421 between 2012 and 2013. In the north-east, at least two states registered an increase in total fatalities: Assam and Meghalaya. Significantly, grave dangers of reversal – including the impact of developments in Afghanistan and a creeping implosion in Pakistan – exist logical conclusion. In either case Baluchistan will achieve independence. For New Delhi this opens a window of opportunity to ensure that the Gwadar Port does not fall into the hands of the Chinese. In this, there is synergy between the political objectives of the Americans and the Indians.  US forces stationed in Afghanistan try to take control of Pakistani nukes under military resistance from Pakistan Army and jehadis. Pakistan erupts into anarchy requiring outside intervention.

Risk Analysis

Feasibility of occurrence of various scenarios is examined as follows:  Risk of Hostile Pathos or variations thereof will be higher when Pakistan has ugly stability with army dominating, radicals remaining largely unchecked, Taliban dominating Durand Line, US-Pak and China-Pak relations are stronger, Pak Offensive LIC is going well regulated and internal dynamics holding out.

On the contrary India’s counter insurgency operations, economy, military / security and South Asian situation is on the down side.  Oh God could occur with further accentuation of these conditions and gradual narrowing of relative military / nuclear / missile balance between India and Pakistan.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s strategic dynamics swings back and forth in opposite directions. It is driven by divergent pulls like dissonance within army, perceived US influence, moderate civil society, radical Islam, pathological hatred for India and poor economic and distributive situation.

Their present resultant effect if extended in future will tend to create Hostile Pathos or Oh God. Both the scenarios are unfavourable to India’s strategic interests.

In both the above scenarios, Pakistan would continue terrorists actions (offensive LIC) under nuclear umbrella and with willing or reluctant economic and strategic support flowing from its key allies USA and China as a fallout of their respective strategic interests, risks to India’s integrity and homeland security will not only remain but continue to escalate.

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cOVert WAr synDrOMe

ANALYSING PAKISTAN’S STRATEGY TOWARDS INDIA Nawaz was extremely supportive of increasing ties with India during his election campaign.

But obviously, Pakistan’s given stance and policy on India which is by and large managed by the army has not shown any change.

Peace talks between the two countries and normalisation of relationship cannot take place till Pakistani leadership commits to stop cross-border terrorism in every form.

T

he last one year has been extremely significant for Pakistan as major leadership changes took place in the country. Nawaz Sharif returned with a popular support, the nation got its new Army Chief, Gen Raheel Sharif and, Lt Gen Zubair Mahmood Hayat succeeded Lt Gen Khalid Kidwai, who finally, retired from the Nuclear Strategic Plans Division (SPD). Kidwai headed the secretive SPD since 2000, was much appreciated by the nation’s civilian and military regime for his commendable services and got 12 extensions since his retirement from the army.

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Technology As Superiority Quotient Military Medicine

Nawaz was extremely supportive of increasing ties with India during his election campaign. But obviously, Pakistan’s given stance and policy on India which is by and large managed by the army has not shown any change. Whatever promises and commitments the civilian leadership makes, the fact is that Pakistan’s policy towards India is within the domain of the military leadership in Pakistan. History of India-Pakistan relations provides us ample details on this front.

Gen Raheel Sharif, is the new Army Chief but the army that he heads is old and he is expected to embrace the similar strategy against India which his predecessors followed.

Many Firsts

Covert War Syndrome

The much awaited elections created ample anxiety and were discussed nationally and internationally due to a number of factors which happened for the very first time in Pakistan. For the first time, a civilian regime completed full tenure of five years. For the first time, the transfer of political power from one civilian regime to another in a peaceful manner took place.

For the first time, there was a triangular competition with three powerful parties competing for power, breaking the traditional two party split between the PPP and Nawaz Sharif’s PML (N).

May 2014 Defence AnD security Alert

This insecurity has been further deepened by the fragmentation of the Pakistani society as the frequently changing regimes in Pakistan and fragile democratic structure have failed to generate a sense of nationalism in the country. Islamic extremism and jihadi terrorism have continued to prosper in the country creating a deep armament culture.

Pakistan has been constantly engaged in the battle of matching Indian conventional military superiority.

The strategic aims, as brought out in the Pakistani writings by Ross Masood Husain, are: “to strengthen national power; to prevent open aggression by India; to induce India to modify its goals, strategies, tactics and operations; to attain a position of security or, if possible, dominance, which would enhance the role of other (non-military) means of conflict; to promote and capitalise on advances in technology in order to reach parity or superiority in military power.”

What is critical for us is to examine what do these changes imply for India? Do we expect a shift in Pakistan’s strategy towards India with these given changes?

The 2013 elections were Pakistan’s 10th elections since 1970 and for the first time in 66 years peaceful transition of power from one democratically elected regime to another elected regime took place. Nawaz Sharif has made an exultant return in the power structure after thirteen years. Sharif, who was humiliated, blamed for Pakistan’s (verge of) economic collapse in 1999 and sent into exile to Saudi Arabia, managed to win people’s trust and compete with the existing Pakistan People’s Party and the cricketer turned politician, Imran Khan. Sharif does get some credit for not interrupting the PPP’s tenure, even though, he had managed ample support during the last five years.

of the nation and building a legitimate basis for Pakistan’s weapon modernisation.

The army in Pakistan has been consistent in its strategy (against India) of maintaining the centrality of covert war (guerrilla war through terrorism). We have faced Pakistan’s covert war for six decades now and one should expect that this mindset will not go away, till Pakistan actually alters its strategic calculus. Pakistan’s reliance on covert war through terrorism is unlikely to change in the coming years, although tactics and intensity may undergo changes. Similarly, its acquisition of nuclear weapons will continue to be rationalised as a deterrent to Indian conventional military superiority and to provide an umbrella under which to pursue a proxy war through terrorism.

Pakistan has opted for a three dimensional approach in its strategy towards India: 1. Conventional level: Pakistan has tried hard to attain parity with India in terms of the military build-up. The military leadership in Pakistan has focused primarily on defence build-up and modernisation, highlighting the strategic threats in the region. The military in Pakistan has boosted the issue within the country adding to the insecurity

Pakistan has relied more on high technology weapons to seek competitive military advantage. Military leadership in Pakistan believed that Pakistan must have a counter system to every Indian system. In this pursuit, it did seek alliance with the United States starting in the 1950s and early 1960s, when it joined SEATO and CENTO. The massive US arms aid to Pakistan in late 1950s provided it with both the incentive to initiate the 1965 War as well as demonstrated the philosophy of high-technology weapons providing a competitive advantage against India which, in any case, was saddled at that time with obsolete systems being employed after the war in 1962. The classic case was the shooting down of the first four Vampire vintage aircraft by a combination of F-104 Starfighters and F-86 Sabres on the opening day of the war forcing India to withdraw these and older fighters from combat thus reducing the quantitative advantage that India was supposed to enjoy.

The US military aid was offered generously in the 1980s under Gen Zia, when Pakistan became the frontline state for the US in the war against the Russians. 1980s was landmark decade in Pakistan’s weapons modernisation and also, in terms of experience it gained in conducting covert / guerrilla warfare.

Nukes And Delivery Systems

China has been Pakistan’s most consistent partner in the military and nuclear force build-up. The China-Pakistan strategic partnership which started as early as 1951 has continued to grow and both nations have enjoyed the mutually beneficial relationship. Chinese assistance resulted in not only the acquisition of low cost affordable conventional systems for Pakistan but also in the development of Pakistan’s indigenous defence production.

Pakistan’s nuclear capability is primarily a result of its cooperation with the Chinese. Not only the nuclear technology but the delivery systems, including the missiles and the aircraft have been provided by China.

Pakistan has believed in offensive aggressive strategies

and has had a deep rooted belief that by going on the offensive, smaller size forces in history have won wars against bigger enemies. All the four wars which Pakistan has fought with India (in 1947-48, 1965, 1971 and 1999), have been initiated

by Pakistan.

2. Sub-conventional level: Pakistan DR SHALINI CHAWLA opted for the covert war option in The writer is a Senior as early as 1947, when it launched Fellow at the Centre for its first aggression in the name of Air Power Studies (CAPS), tribal revolt. Pakistan military has New Delhi and specialises pursued a covert war strategy with in Pakistan studies. remarkable persistency over the last six decades, although the tactics of the covert war have been modified and evolved. All the three wars initiated by Pakistan have been started in a covert manner. It has relied on the strategy of terrorism for more than six decades.

Pakistan’s alliance with the US in the 1980s provided it with ample experience and expertise to conduct the covert war not only in the valley but also other parts of India.

3. Nuclear level: For more than two decades, Pakistan has relied on nuclear weapons to conduct its grand strategy (of indirect approach) against India. Nuclear weapons are perceived as providing a foolproof guarantee of its sovereignty and survivability.

After the acquisition of the nuclear weapons Pakistan obviously is more confident of its strategy of “offensive-defence”. Nuclear weapons have been used as an umbrella by the Pakistani leadership to pursue terrorism as a foreign policy tool.

The belief in the nuclear weapons has grown with the adoption of the “first use” doctrine and, projectio n of a low nuclear threshold.

Pakistan military has been most confident of the sub-conventional or covert war dimension of its strategy and has continued its reliance on it. Over the past two decades, covert war has been carefully calibrated by the bleeding through a thousand cuts philosophy, so as not to incite a major military response and a punitive action.

Pakistan has continued to adopt a posture of denial for its covert actions conducted along with the anti-India militant groups which the ISI has nurtured for decades now. For India, a critical imperative is to evaluate Pakistan’s strategy and to probingly ask the question – have we worked out a viable and effective strategy to defeat Pakistan’s covert-war strategy?

Even though the civilian regime denies such acts, eventually the government of Pakistan has to be accountable for such incidents. India cannot afford a soft stance in response to continued acts of terrorism, even if Pakistan claims these are conducted by non-state factions. Peace talks between the two countries and normalisation of relationship cannot take place till Pakistani leadership commits to stop cross-border terrorism in every form.

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alienated neighbours

eXPlOitinG cOMMOnAlities Indian Ocean Concerns

ENHANCING MARITIME SECURITY

ACROSS OCEANS

I

Issues relating to the expansion of the trilateral initiative to include other smaller Indian Ocean littoral countries were also discussed at the National Security Advisor (NSA) level trilateral meetings.

ndia has a coastline of 7,515 kilometers, an Exclusive Economic Zone of 2.01 million square kilometers and shares maritime boundaries with seven countries – Bangladesh, Indonesia, Maldives, Myanmar, Pakistan, Thailand and Sri Lanka.

Most of the maritime boundaries have been delineated except in South Asia ie with Pakistan in the Sir Creek area in Gujarat and India-Bangladesh boundary dispute is under arbitration before the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague, Netherlands.

Economic Lifelines

India, Maldives and Sri Lanka are strategically located astride the sea lane – Hormuz Strait in the Arabian Sea to Straits of Malacca in the Bay of Bengal – which serves as the lifeline of the Asia Pacific economies particularly of China, Japan and South Korea. This sea lane witnesses heavy merchant vessel traffic which include super tankers, bulk cargo, chemical tankers, container vessels and other types of shipping that sail very close to their shores bringing additional responsibilities to ensure safety of shipping and security of the sea areas. It is estimated that nearly 100,000 vessels transit through the Indian Ocean annually.

India, Maldives and Sri Lanka have established a number of politico-strategic and operational mechanisms to address a variety of sea based Non-Traditional Security (NTS) threats and challenges such as piracy, terrorism, drug smuggling, gunrunning, human trafficking etc. After the terror attacks in Mumbai in 2008, India carried out a major restructuring of the coastal security architecture, set up additional surveillance and reconnaissance stations, special training of naval and coast guard personnel and expanded the number of stakeholders to include fishermen as ‘eyes and ears’ of the maritime security forces to make coastal security more robust.

Trilateral Security

In 2011, the first National Security Advisor (NSA) level trilateral meeting was held in Male, Maldives and measures

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to enhance maritime security cooperation were discussed. The second NSA level trilateral talks were held in July 2013 which resulted in a joint understanding on issues relating to Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA), Long Range Identification and Tracking (LRIT), Merchant Ship Information System (MSIS) and Automatic Identification System (AIS). It was also agreed to enhance cooperation in the domain of Search and Rescue (SAR) coordination including personnel training, increase the frequency and content of naval exercises called ‘Dosti’, exchange real-time information and intelligence and also study legal issues related to piracy. Issues relating to the expansion of the trilateral initiative to include other smaller Indian Ocean littoral countries were also discussed.

Consequently, at the third meeting held in March 2014 in New Delhi, delegations from Mauritius and Seychelles were invited as observer nations. The participants expressed satisfaction over the activities undertaken by the partners and discussed new areas for joint activities to enhance maritime cooperation such as sharing of hydrographic knowledge, Visit, Board, Search and Seizure (VBSS) training, visits by cadets of partner countries on-board Indian Sail Training Ships, exchanges between think tanks and joint participation in adventure activities. These pioneering initiatives are laudable and noteworthy.

India has also taken initiatives to build capacities of smaller navies through supply of surveillance platforms such as ships and aircraft, helicopters, training of personnel to ensure technological enrichment and operational experience. India supplied an Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV) equipped with a helicopter to Sri Lanka in 2000 and has trained its naval personnel.

Likewise, Maldives has received extensive naval support from India. India gifted two naval Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) Dhruv to enhance the capacity of the Maldivian Coast Guard. One of these is deployed in the southern Maldivian Island of Addu and the second, which operates from the

northern Hannimadhoo Island, is more advanced and is fitted with a weather radar. It will also be used for medical evacuation duty. Significantly, these helicopters are currently operated and maintained by Indian crew and the Maldivian personnel are being simultaneously trained to operate these platforms. In February 2014, India gifted a naval landing craft to the Maldives and also announced financial support for the construction of a new building for the Ministry of Defence.

Mauritius and Seychelles too have received generous naval aid from India. The India-Mauritius naval cooperation involves a number of domains including supply of naval ships, training, supply of spares, hydrographic survey in Mauritian EEZ, joint patrols and intelligence sharing with the National Coast Guard of Mauritius. As far as Seychelles is concerned, India and Seychelles have established a maritime security cooperation framework which involves addressing issues including hydrographic surveys of the EEZ, deployment and maintenance of Dornier aircraft and helicopters of the Seychelles People’s Defence Force.

India-Myanmar Naval Cooperation

The Indian Navy has also developed close naval cooperation with Myanmar. Both sides have made port calls to each others’ ports and engaged in coordinated patrol along the maritime boundary in the Andaman Sea. These initiatives are significant for addressing common maritime security concerns such as illegal fishing, poaching, smuggling and oil spills. In the past, India has supplied maritime patrol aircraft to Myanmar and is now planning to build an OPV at an Indian shipyard and the Myanmar Navy personnel will be trained in India.

India has taken lead in establishing a number of other maritime security cooperation mechanisms in the Indian Ocean both at the bilateral and multilateral levels.

Among these, at least four multilateral initiatives merit attention ie Milan, IONS, IBSA and IORA. Since 1995, the Indian Navy has organised the ‘Milan’ (means confluence) biennial meetings at Port Blair in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in Bay of Bengal which are aimed at fostering closer cooperation among navies of countries in the extended neighbourhood of Southeast Asia and as far as Australia. The 2014 Milan hosted 17 navies including from the Indian Ocean countries and also held Passage Exercises (Passex) to ‘develop common procedures that would help in better co-ordination when the navies sail together for a common purpose’.

In 2008, the Indian Navy decided to take the lead to bring together the navies of the Indian Ocean countries to address security threats and challenges facing the region.

It announced the formation of the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) to enhance maritime co-operation among the regional navies to ‘generate a flow of information between naval DR VIJAY SAKHUJA professionals that would lead to The writer is Director common understanding and possibly (Research) Indian Council agreements on the way ahead’ and of World Affairs, address maritime security issues New Delhi. confronted by the region. The IONS, based on the Western Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS) a maritime security structure for the Asia-Pacific region, is a 36-member grouping and covers four sub-regions of the Indian Ocean. The host country holds the Chairmanship for two years. The inaugural IONS was held in New Delhi, India on 14 February 2008; the 2nd in Abu Dhabi from 10-11 May 2010; the 3rd in Cape Town, South Africa from 10-14 April 12 and the 4th in Perth, Australia from 23-28 March 2014. According to the Australian Navy Chief, “security in the Indian Ocean is a responsibility shared between all of the nations that have a maritime border on this strategically important body of water. Bringing all of these nations together to work in partnership is about working smarter to achieve our mission.”

India has also supported pan-Indian Ocean economic grouping called the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC) which has been now been rechristened as Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA). The IORA spans three continents – Africa, Asia and Australia and since 2008, it has been discussing NTS threats and challenges.

Among the six priority areas of the IORA, two relate to maritime safety and security and disaster preparedness.

Pan-oceanic Relations

India has also exhibited interest in expanding naval engagement beyond the Indian Ocean to include Brazil. In 2003, India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) naval engagements emerged from the broader South-South cooperation and came to be understood as the convergence of democracies in the South-South international relations construct. Over the years, the three members have engaged in regular high level visits and maritime and naval cooperation. In 2008, the IBSA members agreed to ‘formulate a system of regional cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region to combat threats emanating from non-state actors, particularly those related to terrorism, armed robbery and piracy’ and the partners agreed to hold trilateral IBSAMAR naval exercise. Till date, three iterations of the IBSAMAR have been held and the scope of these exercises continues to expand. For instance, in 2012 the IBSA navies engaged in Disaster Exercise (DISTEX) which focused on relief and medical assistance operations involving a coastal community that had been affected by a military incursion and suffering from hunger. The fourth IBSAMAR is scheduled in October / November in 2014, off the coast of South Africa.

In essence, India’s maritime engagements with its immediate and extended neighbourhood exhibit New Delhi’s commitment to be a ‘net security provider’ in the Indian Ocean and offer security for ‘public good such as secure seas, safe shipping, environment protection and response to natural disasters such as tsunamis, cyclones and storm surges’.

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INDIA NEEDS AN EFFECTIVE

COUNTER STRATEGY

The basic Indian mindset although calls for peaceful settlement of disputes, however, the “if it happens again, we will take a strong action” attitude of the Indian government is not going down very well with the people as they demand for a stringent action and expect their government to be more assertive and firm towards any aggressive party.

and Line of Control (LoC) respectively. India for a long time seemed to have been on the defensive. Currently, it has been unable to curb the problem and now it is under constant pressure for taking a firm stand against such deplorable behaviour by Pakistan and China.

Pak Narrative

India is hemmed in by two countries Pakistan and China whose national and core interests overlap with and impinge upon key core Indian interests. A common factor amongst these two countries vis-à-vis India is a key element of ‘identity’.

Pakistan’s legitimacy of claims to statehood had been challenged from the very inception of the idea of Pakistan. In this respect, Pakistan seeks to assert its right to its identity and in doing so, attempts to acquire territories since independence that it deems integral to the demographic integrity of its nationality. This directly involves Jammu and Kashmir, an Indian state whose Hindu community has been flushed out by violence and insurgency and the religiously justified narrative that it is a dominantly Muslim state reinforces the argument of Pakistani nationalism based on religion. In doing so, the use of force and illegal force, to justify ‘liberation’ maintains that it is doing so in ‘just war’ fashion.

Chinese Hegemony

P

akistan and China have discovered the utility of skirmishing across their more or less unresolved borders with India. That is, the waves of demand for a political solution ripple up the rungs of the vast Indian superstructure and then break revealing cracks in the system through seeming indecision and a lack of resolve.

Ultimately, to the common Indian, who wants dignity for his or her country, there is a deep sense of loss and humiliation. What is useful for Pakistan and China is that, if they want to cause havoc inside the Indian political system, all that has to be done is to send a platoon of diehard, suicidal (or ambitious) skirmishers to creep over the border and initiate those waves.

Pakistan and China have both figured that India cannot retaliate with total war over a minor incursion.

Part of that is, largely, the common Indian citizen is a peace-loving person that resists conflict and violence.

Thus, in terms of international standing and prestige, if it

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can be used, it is useful. The political trouble is minimal to Pakistan and China domestically. However, if it means that it will cause trouble for India, a great power and potential super power and hamper its developments in this respect, then it is strategic to do so. It is India’s call to effectively respond in a fashion that nullifies the political effect of these incursions and to create a language where its continuation cannot yield any positives for Pakistan and China. And they may be military.

Pak-China Game Plan

Although the Indian government since 2005 has committed to achieving a true ‘Blue Water Navy’ that can undertake operations in far seas and to secure the country’s maritime interests, one cannot ignore India’s land border with these two nuclear capable countries, who in the past and in present have been a reason for jeopardising peace on Indian soil. In 2013 alone, both China and Pakistan on several occasions have violated the Code of Conduct on the Line of Actual Control (LAC)

China’s identity call is much broader in scope, in that it has historically strived to be heard as the voice of Asia, the developing world and especially Asia’s force in repelling and liberation from the West and Europe. Although the global system has evolved and old super powers have fallen out whilst new ones emerge and dominate the scene, China still sees itself and strives for this position. China has unilaterally launched an offensive campaign into Indian territory and unilaterally called off the attack to declare victory even though India had not properly engaged in mobilisation for war. China has since used the ambiguity of the McMahon Line and its claims over Arunachal Pradesh, as a justification for incursions over the border into Indian territory but also to not let India live peacefully and be fully engaged on pushing ahead in development. In any case, territorial disputes are a source of extreme costs – politically and in resources and lives. As these are also identity conflicts, conflicts

Although India retains a dynamic, vibrant and prosperous economy and geography and fighting force, the fact that even the smallest incursions from either China or Pakistan into Indian soils go unpunished serves to erode further resolve in the political and decision-making process

will always be wars of attrition rather than circumnavigation and display of manoeuvres allowing for the defeated party to withdraw. India has control of the disputed territories and within Indian borders and patrolled by Indian forces. The integrity of the Indian state – to an extent – depends on the control of these regions. Allowing it to fall into and subjugated by external force invites weakening of the integrity of the same system. Hence, it is of utmost priority that India’s claims to these regions be clearly demonstrated that it is unchallenged. In both normative and real terms clarity is key.

Tools Of Foreign Policy

SALONI SALIL

The writer is a Geopolitics and Security Analyst.

She is a postgraduate in Geopolitics and International Relations from Manipal University, Karnataka. She is a Researcher with the South Asia Desk at Wikistrat and also a Non-Resident Research Fellow at Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi (2014-2015).

She is a designated Visiting Fellow in the Indian Ocean Research Programme at Future Directions International, Australia. Her research areas include the Indian Ocean Region, South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific Studies.

For both countries, India stands in the way. India’s response mechanisms are tailored to effectively counter the war fighting capacities of both Pakistan and China. There are a number of factors at play and to consider, but it is critical to understand the political objectives, implications and ramifications of military or armed conflict. This is not only important for domestic decision-making, but critical in global standing. India has employed ‘Cold Start’ doctrine to undertake decisive conventional response to a Pakistani invasion. This serves as a deterrent to Pakistani ambition.

Soon after China attacked India in 1962, China went nuclear in 1964. This was to put a ‘no-go zone’ on India and the greater West with respect to attacks on Chinese soil. This was also a time of turbulence in global power. Although India relied on the international community for barring further Chinese attacks on Indian soil and possible use of nuclear weapons, China remained undeterred in its choice of use of the nuclear bomb on Indian forces for the lack of a real deterrent factor. India went nuclear more than thirty years later. Two years later, Pakistan established its nuclear capabilities.

Nuclear deterrence has remained the core doctrine between these countries. However, the nuclear option debate still wonders if this is the norm or the anomaly.

This is due to the fact that although nuclear weapons have been established in these countries, armed conflict has not ceased, risking escalation and the use of nuclear weapons. What is critical to understand is that Deterrence is the First and Final Barrier. Once broken, there will be serious and unacceptable destruction to warring parties.

But this brings home the point that nuclear weapons only deter nuclear weapons. At one point or another, Pakistan or China has entertained conflict with India. Though dubbed as ‘low-intensity conflicts’, the fact that these incursions still occur today reinforces the argument that nuclear weapons have not necessarily established lasting and real security for the people of India.

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Inadequate Indian Response

Because of the acute bearing on politics, both domestically and internationally, of conflict, China and Pakistan have found utility in tampering with Indian resolve.

Although India retains a dynamic, vibrant and prosperous economy and geography and fighting force, the fact that even the smallest incursions from either China or Pakistan into Indian soils go unpunished

Simplicity is critical. India needs to work on developing capabilities that effectively punish illegal intrusion into its borders. It will save lives, promote security and in establishing so, promote confidence and greater peaceful integration

serves to erode further resolve in the political and decision-making process.Whether effective and timely response should prove prudent, or restraint be so, security (or the perception of it) is critical to national and international confidence. Incursions have increased and it seems to wreak havoc both in the regions of incidence and throughout the Indian political superstructure. Knowing this pattern is key to responding effectively, in that, a response in kind to eliminate these violations would condition intruders to refrain from doing so. It will not escalate and provoke nuclear escalation. In fact, a oneoff statement will save further troubles and costs down the line in the future. Non-traditional and conventional methods serve to buttress the core of deterrence doctrine.

For both Pakistan and China, sending their troops over the border would not cause a political crisis back home, even if they were killed. However, just because they may undertake “suicidal” missions does not mean they are irrational. Both countries count on India’s reliance on nuclear deterrence and restraint from total war. Hence, it is rational and strategically useful for them to resort to low-level violence to initiate political crisis in India. In doing so, they are also reliant on their deterrent capabilities and so embark on low-level trouble making. Therefore, it will not lead to drastic escalation if India effectively stamps out these incursions.

Turning The Tide

Simplicity is critical. India needs to work on developing capabilities that effectively punish illegal intrusion into its borders. It will save lives, promote security and in establishing so, promote confidence and greater peaceful integration. Highly-trained and effectively and adequately resourced border security forces are critical to responding

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efficiently. As the global system approaches another turning point in the distribution of world power, into multi-polarity, India needs to make the statement that it is a country that is willing and able to safeguard its values and secure its interests. Projections point that India is set to become a global power and even a super power in the coming decades and it should be poised to do so. Missing these opportunities does not just translate into

missed opportunities. It further translates into overconfidence on Pakistan and China’s part. India’s potential in the future further exacerbates the Chinese and Pakistani insecurity narrative, which has prompted them to attack and attempt to destabilise India since Independence.

This point cannot be emphasised enough.

Charm Offensive

A charm offensive with China, using businesses and cultural integration is critical to changing the tide. When China feels that causing trouble on Indian soil will cause turmoil domestically, it will likely discontinue these incidents.

Cultural learning and interaction with favourable factions inside China, even within the CPC, is a good starting point.

India-Taiwan ties should be boosted. As India learns more about China and interactions grow, Chinese ambitions in Aksai Chin and the border areas if they feel confident about India’s intentions that it will not impinge their own, erodes the strategic imperative for them to do so.

Whereas on one hand, China and India have found support in each other on several issues but what we thought as low-lying issues have once again taken to surface even more so than before. What China seems to be doing is confusing the Indian government of its intentions. Pakistan on the other hand is carrying out troubles in the form of terrorist activities in an attempt to disable the political stability of the country.

One can see what India is facing today is a war on two-fronts.

India has two options, it can either be confrontational or it can cooperate. Cooperation can only be fruitful when India negotiates from a position of strength and therefore, it is not an option at the moment. Instead, what India must do now, be vocal against the perpetrators and should not be willing to accept but to respond effectively and punitively.

NEW NAME IN PRECISION RIFLES

U

ntil recently, Russian small arms were famous mostly for their ruggedness, durability and reliability, even under most harsh conditions. Outstanding accuracy was rarely mentioned in relation to Russian (and before that, Soviet) small arms, but this has changed several years ago. In 2010, a small group of precision shooting enthusiasts, led by an experienced benchrest and precision shooter Alexey Sorokin and backed up by several private investors, bought an abandoned manufacturing building in Moscow.

Less than a year later, this building became the home for a unique Russian small arms manufacturer, known as ORSIS. ORSIS is the first privately-owned Russian small arms manufacturing company which can mass-produce firearms that are compatible, if not superior, to products of the world’s most famous brands, such as Sako, Accuracy International, Steyr, Remington and others. Primary goal, set by founders of the ORSIS factory, was to build custom-grade precision rifles for civilian shooters and law enforcement, using most modern mass production technologies, most notably CNC machining. Right from the start, great emphasis was put on self-dependence and quality control during all stages of production. Also,

being run by the shooters, company was built to be as much customer-oriented as possible, which is a most welcome change in Russian gun industry.

ORSIS T-5000 sniper rifle

ORSIS T-5000 is manually operated, rotary bolt action, magazine fed rifle. It uses stainless steel receiver of round shape, with single massive recoil lug at the front. Stainless steel bolt has dual locking lugs at the front which lock into the receiver body and plunger type ejector. Bolt body has spiral grooves to decrease weight. Bolt actions are available in two sizes – standard, suitable for 7.62x51 NATO / .308 Winchester cartridges and Magnum, designed for .338 Lapua Magnum cartridges and also available in .300 Winchester Magnum.

Barrels are made from stainless steel and threaded at the muzzle to accept various muzzle brakes and other muzzle devices. Standard ORSIS muzzle brake is highly effective and said to decrease felt recoil roughly by half. Typical barrel lengths are 66 centimeters for .308 Winchester and .300 Winchester Magnum and 70 centimeters for .338 Lapua Magnum.

Chassis type stocks are machined from aluminum alloy and feature steel bedding inserts and steel shoulder stock hinge and lock. Shoulder stock folds to the left and allows rifle to be operated when folded.

Over recent years, ORSIS T-5000 rifle proved itself as a dependable tack-driver in hands of the elite Russian Law Enforcement units and target shooters. Russian sniper teams armed with T-5000 rifles have won Police and Military Sniper World Cup in Hungary for two consecutive years (2012 and 2013) and looking forward to participate in the same event this year. www.orsis.com

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MAritiMe security China has been aggressively working towards strengthening its presence across the IOR and Pacific basin and boost its geostrategic interests in all its manifestations.

PROTECT INTERESTS

IN INDIAN OCEAN REGION

India is concerned over the possibility of Sino-Pakistan collusion leading to the increase of hostilities against India with specific reference to the Indian interests in IOR. Of particular concern to India should be China’s forays in the telecom, IT and other strategic sectors of the trouble-torn Maldives which has historically been a close ally of India.

I

n recent years, the strategically located Indian Ocean Region (IOR), which hosts the world’s most significant sea lanes of communications, has emerged as an arena of no holds barred power projection and intense rivalry, mainly involving the maritime forces of India, China and USA, all of which are keen on furthering their geostrategic interests through a well planned maritime build-up. In particular, India has enough reasons to worry about the recent, massive Chinese naval build-up in IOR which is robustly supported by China’s diplomatic and commercial initiative to woo the countries in the region.

Chinese Expansionism

In this context, strategic analysts perceive that IOR, which, incidentally, is critical to the energy security of both India and China, is all set to emerge as a battlefield of these two Asian giants over the next one decade.“The Indian Ocean area will be the true nexus of world powers and conflicts in the coming years. It is here that the fight for democracy, energy, independence and religious freedom will be lost

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or won,” says geostrategist Dr Robert Kaplan, who is also a Senior Fellow at Centre for a New American Security.

With a view to counter Indian and American influence in IOR, China is making all out efforts to set up military bases in the countries in IOR that would also help sustain its strategic interests on a long-term basis.

In particular, India is concerned over the possibility of Sino-Pakistan collusion leading to the increase of hostilities against India with specific reference to the Indian interests in IOR. As it is, the handing over of Gwadar Port in Pakistan’s restive and trouble-torn Balochistan province to China’s state owned China Overseas Ports Holdings Company in February 2013, is considered a part of the long-term strategy to thwart Indian ambitions in IOR. All said and done, China can draw strategic advantages from its toe-hold in Gwadar. It is planned to link this deep water port overlooking the Arabian Sea to Kashgar in China’s north-western Xinjiang province through a 2000-km long all weather transport infrastructure. This transport link

Clearly and apparently, India would, in the none too distant a future face, a serious challenge from China which is trying to dominate IOR in a systematic manner. As defence analysts point out, China’s strategic calculation in the Indian Ocean is to protect its sea lane of communications especially the transport of energy from West Asia to China through Malacca Strait. But on the other hand, there is also a perception that through its “string of pearls” strategy China is trying to encircle India by creating its own sphere of influence in India’s neighbouring countries forming part of IOR. cutting across the highlands in the formidable Karakorum ranges will be a part of the planned economic corridor project that could at some point of time include a railway network and oil pipeline project. India’s concern here is that this project will pass through the Pakistan occupied part of Kashmir. Located about 400-km to the east of the strategically situated Strait of Hormuz, Gwadar can also provide China an ideal springboard to monitor the US activities in the Gulf region as also Indian activities in the Arabian Sea. The proposal for a pipeline from Gwadar to transport oil and gas to China could help this communist giant minimise its dependence of Malacca Strait which can be closed during war or become vulnerable to piracy.

Wooing Island Nations

As China seeks to boost its strategic dominance through maritime supremacy in IOR, Beijing is looking at getting a new base in South Pacific basin that would ultimately help it overcome its vulnerability in the Strait of Malacca.

As China is keen on bypassing the Strait of Malacca, where India has traditionally been exercising a strong presence, Beijing is exploring the possibility of acquiring a new base in Tonga Island in South Pacific. Through a cleverly conceived strategy of soft loan aid, investment in infrastructure projects along with military supplies, China is on the job of slowly bringing Tonga under its sphere of influence as a prelude to getting a foothold in this South Pacific island country. For quite sometime now,

China is on the job of slowly bringing Tonga under its sphere of influence as a prelude to getting a foothold in this South Pacific island country. For quite sometime now, China has been aggressively working towards strengthening its presence across the IOR and Pacific basin and boost its geostrategic interests

RADHAKRISHNA RAO

The writer specialises in space technology, aeronautics, defence and security issues. He is a Visiting Fellow at Vivekananda International Foundation. Before taking to full time writing he was associated with the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) for about two decades.

Infrastructure Expansion

Along with Myanmar and Pakistan, China has been fast expanding its influence in Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh. As diplomatic experts observe, by making available soft loans on generous repayment terms along with the engineering expertise for putting in place infrastructure and utility projects including roads, dams, energy pipelines, as well as military assistance, China has succeeded in expanding its influence and securing goodwill among many of IOR countries. Of particular concern to India should be China’s forays in the telecom, IT and other strategic sectors of the trouble-torn Maldives which has historically been a close ally of India. Significantly, Maldives has also sought Chinese assistance for realising its “space ambition.”

Media reports also reveal that China is setting up a naval base in Seychelles. Though on the face of it, this facility is primarily meant for the purpose of seeking supplies and recuperating its navy, it could be a significant addition to China’s expanding footprints in IOR. China, which has already built a commercial port for Sri Lanka at Hambantota has also become a space partner of this island nation which shares a common culture and history with India. As part of the Sino-Sri Lankan “handshake in space”, Supremesat-1 communications satellite was launched at the head of a Chinese Long March rocket in November 2012. This “co-branded” spacecraft positioned over the Indian Ocean could help China in the task of boosting its commercial, strategic and military interests in IOR. And as a follow on, an exclusive Sri Lankan satellite, Supremesat-2 is planned to be launched in mid-2016 by means of a Chinese Long March vehicle.

Eastern Maritime Loop

Chinese involvement in building Sonadiya deep water port near to Chittagong in Bangladesh is yet another instance of Chinese strategy of “string of pearls” aimed

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MAritiMe security

Kanwal Sibal, India’s former Foreign Secretary, says “China’s proposition of a maritime silk route connecting the Pacific and Indian Ocean is a part of propaganda drive to convince the world about its peaceful rise” at encircling India. Media reports suggest Bangladesh is also exploring the possibility of roping in China for giving a practical shape to its satellite project. The immense strategic significance of space cooperation could provide China with a platform in IOR to expand its geostrategic interests, rapidly and efficiently. Even though China’s maritime objectives in shipbuilding and port construction projects in the countries of IOR are primarily driven by commercial interests, the possibility of these huge Chinese investments being exploited in the future for militaristic and strategic purposes cannot be ruled out.

Indian Ocean holds a position of paramount importance for India. According to the Journal of the Indian Ocean Region, more than 80 per cent of the world’s seaborne trade in oil transits through the Indian Ocean choke points. It has been estimated that around 70,000 ships move through IOR each year. In the changing global economic and strategic scenario, IOR has acquired an added significance. Increasing incidence of piracy in the waters of IOR have brought the navies of several countries including China and India into IOR on a regular basis for anti-piracy operations. In view of the rapidly changing dynamics of regional security, India’s strategic frontiers have expanded from Suez to Shanghai and from Africa to the western coast of Australia and the Indian Navy is

preparing to shoulder the responsibility being thrust on it in the context of fast changing security environment in IOR. Besides keeping a vigilant eye over the international shipping lanes that pass through the channels of IOR, the Indian Navy is also taking care of two more choke points near its offshore island chains of Lakshadweep and A&N (Andaman and Nicobar). The growing Indian naval presence in A&N Island group is considered a proof positive of India’s commitment to expand its footprints over IOR.

Ploy of ‘Maritime Silk Route’

The progressive decline in US military presence in the oceanic waters implies that India and China would be making vigorous efforts to fill the vacuum in IOR. Against this backdrop, China’s unstinted espousal of the need to build a maritime silk route by linking Indian Ocean with Pacific Ocean to boost trade and commerce is considered a reflection of the Chinese quest to strengthen its connection with the outside world.

However strategic and diplomatic experts believe the idea of maritime silk route could be a ploy to expand Chinese interests with a focus on boosting its naval capabilities as evinced by February 2014 Chinese naval exercise in Lombok Strait close to Indonesia. Interestingly, countries ranging from Russia to India and Gulf countries have been sounded out about this “fanciful idea.” According to Kanwal Sibal, India’s former Foreign Secretary, “China’s proposition of a maritime silk route connecting the Pacific and Indian Ocean is a part of propaganda drive to convince the world about its peaceful rise.”

As it is, more than half the world’s armed conflicts are currently centred round IOR. China’s aggressive soft

power diplomacy has widely been perceived as the most vital element in giving shape to its multi-faceted strategy to dominate IOR. The Blue Book of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences observes that in the past, China’s IOR strategy was based on moderation and maintaining the status quo but changing dynamics of international relations underpins the need for China to play a more dynamic and proactive role in affairs of the region. The document also highlights the need for China to strengthen its economic ties with the countries in IOR. The launch of India’s first home-grown aircraft carrier INS Vikrant in August last has been viewed by China as a vital component of India’s long-term strategy to assert its supremacy in IOR. As it is, Indian Navy is keen on operating two well equipped aircraft carriers covering the eastern and western flanks of the oceanic waters around India.

Not surprisingly then a well documented study by Integrated Defence Staff in New Delhi forecasts intense rivalry between the Indian and Chinese navies even as the Chinese Navy appears to be working on a strategy to undermine Indian Navy’s edge to control highly sensitive sea lanes of communications in IOR. India’s response to China’s IOR strategy is manifesting itself in its stepped up efforts to enhance and expand bilateral ties with the countries in the region. Indian Navy is also preparing to thwart the efforts to use the sea lanes around the Indian peninsula by terrorist groups trying to mount attack on the Indian mainland around India.

More Indian Satellites Needed

There is no denying the point that security of mainland India is closely linked to a strong Indian naval presence in IOR. It is not for nothing that Avinash Chander, Director General

Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System

Sonadiya deep water port

The Indian Navy whose current primary area of focus is on IOR, has acquired an “eye in the sky” in the form of India’s fully home-grown GSAT-7 multi-band communications satellite which will also help the Indian Navy keep a hawk eye in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal regions where arms running and sea piracy are reported with recurring regularity of Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), had stressed the need for India to put in place an effective mechanism to fully monitor IOR in a complete and three dimensional manner. To accomplish this objective, he has suggested the development and deployment of about 80-100 satellites designed for covering the IOR in a detailed manner. There are said to be 19 Chinese satellites keeping a watch over the IOR. As it is, the growing Chinese space based ocean surveillance capability with particular reference to the Indian Ocean has been a matter of concern for US strategic planners.

In recent years, ocean observation space platforms have emerged as a major technological tool to keep a tab on the oceanic expanse on a sustained basis with a high degree of effectiveness.

Meanwhile, the Indian Navy whose current primary area of focus is on IOR, has acquired an “eye in the sky” in the form of India’s fully home-grown GSAT-7 multi-band communications satellite launched in August 2013. This space platform would help the Indian Navy keep a tab on IOR with a vastly enhanced vigour. Further, it would facilitate the real time networking of all the Indian warships, submarines and deck based fighters and helicopters with the onshore operational centre. The 2,625 kg Rukmini, as the satellite is known, will also help the Indian Navy keep a hawk eye in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal regions where arms running and sea piracy are reported with recurring regularity.

Similarly, the easy access that Indian Navy would have to India’s home-grown navigational constellation IRNSS (Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System) will prove to be a game changer. As it is, the satellite navigation capability would help Indian Navy enhance its situational awareness and improving the hitting accuracy of its precision weapons including long-range missiles. Of course to enhance its “power projection” in IOR and beyond, Indian Navy is looking at acquiring a constellation of exclusive satellites designed for a variety of end uses including electronic intelligence and communications intelligence.

By all means Indian Navy should try to exploit the strategic vulnerability of China in the vitally important Malacca Strait to reinforce its military presence in the Indian Ocean region with a particular focus on obviating any seaborne threat to the security of mainland India.

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cHinA and the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) deployed at the border would not be entirely correct. However, India-China border skirmishes lay bare that while the border dispute will remain the biggest irritant in bilateral relations for a long time, a direct military confrontation is unlikely. In such a scenario, enforcing China to maintain status quo along the border would be in India’s best interest in 2014 and beyond.

FIVE ISSUES THAT ARE DETERMINANTS I ndia and China, the two most powerful Asian countries are poised to become the vital super powers in world politics. The relationship between India and China has the potential to determine the fate of not only the region but the international stage as well. Climate change and WTO (World Trade Organisation) negotiations, United Nations, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), IBSA Forum (India, Brazil, South Africa) etc demonstrate India and China’s rise to the international forums. Clearly, India-China relationship has been full of ups and downs and characterised by uncertainty and unpredictability.

Protracted border dispute, mutual neglect and distrust have further complicated this multilayered relationship in ways more than one. While one cannot deny that the two sides have been trying to bring the relationship on a smooth track and the success rate on that count has also been fairly reasonable; it is difficult to imagine how the two countries will be able to live in harmony without addressing their long-standing disputes.

Capricious Five?

A systematic analysis of India-China bilateral relationship demonstrates that there are at least five major issues that have the potential to determine the India-China relationship.

In that context, it is pertinent to mention that after assuming office in March 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping took several initiatives to strengthen ties with India. Impelled by the necessities of putting India-China ties on the right track, he unveiled a five-point formula. Prime Minister Li Keqiang also attempted to break the ice by making India as his first foreign destination as Premier in May 2013. In fact, it can be said that the event came along as another instance where India-China relations touched another milestone in being unpredictable. In essence, past few years, 2013 in particular, has proved to be a mixed bag for the relationship between the two biggest giants of Asian politics.

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Avoiding incursions along the borders, overcoming trade imbalance, achieving riparian tolerance, honouring border defence cooperation agreement, ‘Panchsheel’ and ‘Year of Friendly Exchanges’ together have the potential of shaping India-China relations in the future.

A methodical study of events that happened in recent years, reveals that five issues have the potential to shape India-China ties: issues that will influence the unfolding India-China saga in the years to come – shaping the India-China relationship in both long and the short-terms.  Avoiding Incursions Along The Borders As always, more than half-a-century old India-China border dispute remained one of the biggest flashpoints in bilateral ties during 2013. Problems at border arise because India-China border is not well-defined and demarcated. To top it all, one may find from historical records that, China has been unaccommodating on border issues; especially on the McMahon Line. In fact, incursions along the common border between India and China have become a usual feature of their bilateral relations. One of the most contentious issues between India and China in 2013 was the Chinese incursion in India’s Daulat Beg Oldi area of Depsang Valley.

Just a month before Li Keqiang’s maiden visit to India, in April 2013, Chinese platoons entered 19 km into the Indian side of the LAC (Line of Actual Control) and remained there for three weeks despite New Delhi’s protest. This incident visibly overshadowed Keqiang’s India visit. The Depsang incident demonstrated how an untimely single incursion could derail relations between neighbours. Later, in December 2013, Chinese troops crossed the LAC and established their tents in the Chepzi area in Ladakh. In a new endeavour to enter into the Indian side of LAC, in March 2014, Chinese troops transgressed in Chumar area of Ladakh. Nevertheless, this was prevented by the ITBP (Indo-Tibetan Border Police) and Indian Army officers by forming a human wall.

Notably, to say that all these incursions happened due to lack of coordination between the soldiers of the Indian Army

 Overcoming Trade Imbalance India-China bilateral trade volume has reached commanding heights in recent years, bringing China at the top of India’s list of biggest trade partners. The two sides are now aiming US$ 100 billion total trade turnover by the year 2015.

Notwithstanding bilateral trade volume, there exists a significant trade imbalance of US$ 40 billion, tilted in China’s favour. India has been raising the issue with China asking for deliberations to effectively deal with the challenges posed by such an imbalance. Appreciably, the exchange of high-level visits between New Delhi and Beijing resulted in the consensus to systematically discuss the matter. The seventh round of India-China Financial Dialogue, scheduled to be held in New Delhi in 2014, will be a litmus test for the two countries on that count.  Achieving Riparian Tolerance China has been accused by South Asian and Southeast Asian lower riparian countries – particularly India and Bangladesh, of diverting the Brahmaputra and Mekong Rivers and building dams over it. As an upper riparian state, China intends to use its position to the fullest, leaving lower riparian states relatively deprived. Moreover, India has been apprehensive of China’s strategic use of dams in conflict situations and resultant non-traditional security emergency. China’s denial of even the existence of such projects has deepened mutual suspicions. ‘Riparian tolerance’, if not practiced by both China and India, might trigger a downward spiral in the relationship.

A remarkable step on that issue was taken during the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Beijing in October 2013; when China agreed to make sincere attempts in sharing data on and emergency management of the trans-border rivers twice a day. A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Strengthening Cooperation on Trans-border Rivers was also signed paving the way for greater institutional cooperation. To reduce anxieties of lower riparian states, China should be open in sharing its plan to build dams on Brahmaputra. Since China and India are not bound by treaty obligations on the Brahmaputra River called as Yarlung Tsangpo in China, it is important that India keeps on working closely with China to open up avenues for riparian tolerance for mutual benefit.  Honouring Border Defence Cooperation Agreement Singh’s Beijing visit was a victory considering that the top leaders from both sides also touched upon the long-drawn border issue by signing the BDCA (Border Defence Cooperation Agreement). On the eve of the signing

of the BDCA, Singh stated that, “building on previous agreements signed in 1993, 1996 and 2005 that recognise the principle of mutual and equal security, the two countries signed a Border Defence Cooperation Agreement that will strengthen maintenance of stability on the border”. The much awaited step was clearly a repercussion of SANA HASHMI April-May 2013 Chinese intrusion The writer is Associate into Depsang Valley. Apparently, Fellow, Centre for Air in order to address the future Power Studies (CAPS), flare-ups along the border and New Delhi. maintain the status quo, the proper implementation of the BDCA is indispensable. It is a well-known fact that lack of coordination and understanding between Indian and Chinese troops might worsen the already convoluted border issue. Thus, it is hoped that the realisation of the BDCA would help the Indian and the Chinese armed forces exercise restraint in preventing the tailing of patrols along the LAC.  Year Of Friendly Exchanges Sixty years ago, in 1954, India and China agreed to lay the foundation of their relations on the basis of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, popularly known as the Panchsheel. These principles include mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, mutual non-aggression, mutual non-interference in each other’s internal matters, equality and mutual benefits and peaceful coexistence. The year 2014, which marks the 60th anniversary of Panchsheel, is being celebrated as the “Year of Friendly Exchanges”. In order to give a new fillip to their relationship, the two sides have to think beyond the box and reinvigorate Panchsheel as the fulcrum of bilateral ties.

Several contrasting trends in India-China relations emerged in 2013: While the Daulat Beg Oldi incident overshadowed some positive developments on border, the exchange of high-level visit and inking of several MoUs yielded enduring results. While the historical baggage on India-China ties is undeniably heavy, the two Asian giants have to learn to coexist and grow.

So far as the boundary question is concerned, positive developments have taken place in 2014. The 17th round of border negotiations held in February 2014 is a case in point. However, it is important to note that despite the signing of the BDCA and a row of constructive dialogues, India and China are not moving towards settling their common border and for that matter, the issue of huge trade imbalance is still intact. At present, a multipronged approach that encompasses cooperation between India and China on several fronts is the need of the hour. Clearly, as it happened in 2013, India and China have to go for wider and deeper dialogues to understand each other and live in harmony in 2014 and beyond.

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strAineD relAtiOns to do so over the years but has it been able to elicit the desired response? The following paragraphs respond to the underlying question.

The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as the ruling military junta termed itself since 1997 and its Chairman have been the embodiment of the state for decades. Are we then to believe and accept that a recent change in governance will alter all the dynamics of power play and influence? Will Aung Su Kyi have absolute control over foreign policies and all governance in the country? It will be highly speculative to predict future trajectories. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s official visit to that country in May 2012, the first by an Indian prime minister in nearly 25 years in spite of being immediate neighbours is itself indicative how much India hopes to pin its future initiatives. The argument of unwillingness to engage a military regime does not hold against efforts towards mutual initiatives and cooperation on strengthening of traditional and non-traditional security measures including bilateral trade.

MYANMAR AND BANGLADESH UTOPIAN HOPES AND SILVER LININGS The threat to India is from the potential dominance of Myanmar by another power. This can happen when Myanmar paves that way for dominance. China happens to be among the top five exporters of arms in the world and transfers approximately 8 per cent of its total exports to Myanmar. Does Bangladesh need to be worried about external threat and aggression?

If yes, then from whom or from which country? So does Bangladesh really have to partake 7 per cent of arms export from China?

I

ndia’s policy outlooks toward Myanmar and Bangladesh have to be considered in the context of certain overarching imperatives. The imperatives are dictated by unchangeable geography that is unalterable. India also does not have an option but to proactively look at the stance that both these countries are taking during the course of security and diplomatic engagement and the contemporary relevance with national security.

Situational Relevance

Myanmar has a physical boundary with India which is 1,463 km long and this geographic contiguity is along several of India’s north-eastern states. The enormous strategic significance for India arise as the north-eastern states are still distant, remote and kept isolated from the Indian heartland for many reasons that need to be analysed separately. It will be common understanding that given Myanmar’s location it provides ample possibilities to become a launching pad, voluntarily or otherwise, for inflicting harm on India. Myanmar’s domestic and foreign policies will also directly impact India’s strategic interests.

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Snail’s Pace

It is also significant to note that even last year when the Defence Minister of India visited Myanmar there were no major agreements that could be inked. Is that not a pessimistic outcome with two high profile visits and following a change of government in that country? The economies of Myanmar and India are complimentary but yet the trade volume though increasing is nominal when compared to China. Myanmar chooses to trade with China at approximately US$ 7 billion ending 2012 while India is able to trade a mere US$ 1.87 billion during the same period. India hopes to trade at approximately US$ 3 billion only by end 2015.

 India’s territorial integrity in the north-eastern parts of the country.  Economic growth and development of India’s remote north-eastern states.  Arresting insurgencies in the north-eastern states.  Strategic interests of India in the Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.  India’s energy interests in Myanmar as it is potentially rich in source of natural gas.  India’s ‘Look East’ policy can become meaningful when Myanmar cooperates being the viable land bridge between India and Southeast Asian countries.  Engagement with China and its ambitions in South and Southeast Asia.

The general assessment is that the security cooperation between India and Myanmar has been a major success when it is related to insurgency and violence in Manipur and Nagaland. There has been a tacit understanding and exchange deal where transfer of Indian arms to Myanmar can be seen as the interesting issue. India’s supplies of military hardware has ranged from maritime patrol aircraft, naval gun-boats, 105 mm light artillery guns, mortars, grenade launchers and rifles and radars including non-lethal equipment. India also offered sale of military helicopters to Myanmar and has agreed to train Myanmar pilots. The supply of Indian hardware has unsurprisingly invited China’s attention and it is even more surprising to see Myanmar readily accepting arms transfer from China.

The arms transfer has been heavy weaponry that can be used in a full-fledged war. It has already been well argued that the threat to India is from the potential dominance of Myanmar by another power. This can happen when Myanmar paves that way for dominance. China does not reveal its figures of arms transfer to various countries but it happens to be among the top five exporters of arms in the world and transfers approximately 8 per cent of its total exports to Myanmar.

Window To East

Strategic Relations

Strategically, Myanmar then becomes a formidable rival having significant influence to shape the following:

India has little option but to proactively engage Myanmar’s outlook, irrespective of the nature of Myanmar’s regime at any given point. India has attempted

Current cooperation and defence diplomacy between India and Myanmar with a view to future engagement are widely viewed through a prism of India-China rivalry. Chinese

plans to develop a commercial port at Sittwe on the Arakan coast triggers concerns on the leanings of Myanmar. Indian Navy drew up sustained engagement with frequent port calls. Reports of a Chinese base in the Cocos Islands owned by Myanmar in the Bay of Bengal generated huge security concerns in maritime issues in the Bay of Bengal.

LT COL RAJIV GHOSH SM (RETD)

The writer is an ex aviator Myanmar is also emerging as an from the Indian Armed important energy exporting nation Forces. He is also an and earning that much importance alumni of Management for meeting the growing energy Development Institute demands of the regional economies (MDI), Gurgaon. He is an and this includes India. Oil and Honorary Research Fellow Natural Gas Commission (Videsh) of the Centre for Air Ltd, Gas Authority of India Power Studies, New Delhi Limited, China National Offshore and also a Consulting Oil Corporation and China Editor for publications of Unmanned Systems National Petroleum Corporation Association of India. He have participated in the has vast experience in exploration as well as construction counter terrorist operations of gas pipelines. Interesting and extensive expertise to know that in July 2013, the in matters of defence China-Myanmar gas pipeline and national security. He commenced operation of is a regular contributor transporting gas from Myanmar’s for various journals and Rakhine coast in the Bay of publications on defence, Bengal to China’s Yunnan capital aerospace, strategy and national security.

Kunming. It is also expected that the China-Myanmar gas pipeline will transfer gas from Africa and West Asia where there are Chinese interests. In contrast is the languishing plan of a gas pipeline in cooperation with Bangladesh that would benefit India enormously.

Muslim Factor

Sectarian clashes in Myanmar have significant potential to impact India on the security front. Economic and social hardships faced by Rohingya refugees not being attended to will give rise to involvement in arms smuggling, narcotics and safe sanctuaries for terrorists, including terror training camps. It enhances the counter-terrorism challenge for India in the regional context. Available intelligence inputs indicate that extremist activities of Rohingya Muslims are being funded from foreign lands.

Will Myanmar take steps with a view to stabilise security crisis for India or keep the vulnerability simmering?

Sittwe Port is the key to India’s massive Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project that will link Eastern India with Myanmar through sea route between Kolkata and Sittwe and, additionally, road and river route from Sittwe to India’s Mizoram. Sittwe has also been the site of Myanmar’s worst anti-Muslim nationalist violence.

The widening anti-Muslim agitation in Myanmar increasingly resembles communal violence in India like the recent ones in Muzaffarnagar and also relevant to trends seen during Kokrajhar violence in Assam during July 2012. Myanmar would understand the indirect but heavy pressures on India where the minority community would one day certainly expect India as a neighbour to act

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Any step towards the direction of solving the border disputes between the two countries needs political will to make adjustments and compromises which the two countries are not ready to make due to unprecedented rise of chauvinist forces in both countries against oppression even if it not be within the geographical precincts of the country.

The Bangladesh Conundrum

Bangladesh shares its borders with India like no country does. It shares not only the borders but almost every aspect of daily life as long as there is free movement between the two countries as a regular routine. The problems are varied and can be summarised:  The operation of dams and waterways on the approximately 54 large and small rivers that run between the two countries. Droughts in summers and floods in monsoon are a major cause for concern for the Bangladesh government where there seems to be scanty understanding.  Both Bangladesh and India claim some of the same territorial waters in the Bay of Bengal which lies on India’s eastern seaboard and to the south of Bangladesh.  Water sharing issue is not merely technical but also largely political and without doubt a discourse on water is driven by ideologies and this has found deep political ethos and understanding that India unnecessarily takes advantage. This in spite of sharp polarisation in Bangladesh polity as this has more relevance in the context of national consensus. Long forgotten are the facts that in the liberation of Bangladesh from the yokes of Pakistan, India was the only saviour not because of any major interests but for the protection of the basic rights of the people of Bangladesh.  Bangladesh has denied access to its north-eastern states through its borders and it is unlikely that it will approve it in the future unless their water crisis is first amicably resolved. Till then, India will have to make do with its chicken-neck corridor in Siliguri that exists today. What happens in case of hostilities when China is able to isolate this land access that stretches a little over 25 kilometres?  Intolerant groups with strong religious overtones are on the rise in Bangladeshi politics. Is the government able to contain such aggressive gestures and more importantly inclined to control such feelings? Disconcerting to note that there are young citizens who would rather support Pakistan than India in sports competition. Yes, it is only sports as many would tend to say, but the message is unambiguous.  Contrary to the official claims that there has been no large scale illegal migration from Bangladesh in recent years, the Army Chief General Bikram Singh has termed it as a grave concern and potential threat to national security. There is enough evidence to suggest that even in the present elections in 2014 voter identity cards have been issued to illegal Bangladesh immigrants who have stayed in the capital of the state for over a decade and a half but obtained voter identity cards from Dhubri which is next to India-Bangladesh border and a major gateway

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for illegal immigration into India.

India has so far managed to construct fence on the Indo-Bangladesh border that is approximately a third of the 4,894 km border. Interestingly, it has been the sole initiative of India only as Bangladesh does not seem to be much concerned about the outflow of their population into a country which is already vexed with internal security dilemmas. Additionally, there has been unprovoked firing on the construction workers in an attempt to scare them off. Complete fencing has the potential to stop the flow of illegal immigrants almost entirely.

Migrant Flood Can Become Deluge

Bangladesh could provide more climate refugees than any other country on this earth. This will happen sooner or later as the sea water level rises along coastal Bangladesh as a result of the inevitable global warming. The country that is going to get affected the most will be its immediate neighbour and that happens to be India. Now what are the alternatives that have been thought of by Bangladesh?

Concrete solutions have still been elusive after years of cooperation or are the migrations a happy inevitable to be contended with by our friendly neighbours? The aspect of international migration in distress situations is touchy but so are immediate and future aspects of national security of India.

Awami League has largely delivered on Indian security concerns, however, the continued existence of Islamic fundamentalism in Bangladesh, represented by the likes of Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), banned political outfit Jamaat-e-Islami, others like Hefajat-e-Islam, Jagrata Muslim Janata and HuJI-B whose links to Al-Qaeda cannot be denied including their sources of finance. If India is so sensitive to terrorists being harboured in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir then the presence of disruptive elements should have been dealt with equal, if not more urgency by Bangladesh.

India’s security is Bangladesh’s security.

Today, Bangladesh trades at US$ 8.26 billion with China and with India, its next door neighbour, the volume has been US$ 5.24 billion. Does Bangladesh need to be worried about external threat and aggression? If yes, then from whom or from which country? The answer is yet to be deciphered. So does Bangladesh really have to partake 7 per cent of arms export from China when evidently such transfer engagements naturally create detrimental equations with India?

Finding The Balance

Engagement of Myanmar and Bangladesh by India has been marked by distinctions that bring forth aspects of potential and ground performance. While it is true that there have been structural constraints in the political and defence field, however, there should not be any limitations to put into place effective institutional framework for security and diplomacy considering the fact that India has never expressed any hegemonic intentions. Then why the several inhibitive leanings towards China that not only presents itself as a traditional rival but also exhibits comprehensive engagement that reinforces ambitious plan into restive areas along India’s borders.

Rafale to fly in India

T

he French Rafales which India is looking to buy will practice combat drills with IAFs top of the line Sukhoi-30 MKIs in Rajasthan in June this year during the Garuda bilateral exercises.

Ex Garuda 2014 will be held during June 2-13 at Jodhpur. The French Air Force will be represented by four Rafales and C-135 Refuellers. The French Air Force will use this opportunity to demonstrate Rafales’ capabilities in an operational scenario.

MRF bags IAF order for Sukhoi tyres

M

RF, the leading tyre manufacturer which has been supplying special purpose tyres to the defence forces for decades now bags a major breakthrough order from the Indian Air Force for supply of main wheel tyres for Sukhoi 30 MKIs. These “Aero Muscle” brand tyres are being manufactured at the Medak plant of MRF near Hyderabad.

Aero Muscle tyres are at least 30-40 per cent cheaper than the imported ones.

“Mango” anti-tank shells for India

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ussia has agreed to sell 66,000 “Mango” anti-tank shells to India. This winged armour-piercing projectile for 125 mm calibre tank guns is capable of piercing half a meter of steel at a distance of two kilometers.

Russia’s supply of these anti-tank shells – a very modern ammunition – can radically change and enhance the preparedness level of the Indian Armed Forces.

May 2014 Defence AnD security Alert

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Advance version of BrahMos test-fired

Night test for Agni I missile

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ol SD Goswami Defence spokesperson has confirmed the successful test of an advanced version of the BrahMos 290 km range supersonic cruise missile at the Pokhran test range in Rajasthan.

The missile was launched by a mobile autonomous launcher deployed in full configuration with mobile command post at the ranges and the missile hit the designated target. Both the Indian Army and Indian Navy have already inducted the missile.

A

s part of the user trial by the Indian Army, indigenously developed nuclear capable Agni I ballistic missile was successfully test fired from a test range off Orissa coast. The surface to surface single stage missile is powered by solid propellants and has a strike range of 700 km. The Army’s Strategic Force Command (SFC) decided to conduct the night test keeping in mind its strategic requirement and need for preparedness to meet any eventuality.

T

he data released by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) puts India at the 9th place in the list of world’s biggest arms buyers. The top eight are US, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, UK, Germany and Japan.

Sukhois with higher indigenous content

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he Indian Air Force has finally started receiving phase IV Sukhoi 30 MKIs which have the highest indigenous content. The IAF now has over 190 aircraft out of the 272 it plans to induct. This is part of the various deals for local production of Sukhois with an accumulated cost of over US$ 12 billion.

Green signal to Selex defence electronics JV

T

he ministry of external affairs has given “no objection from the political angle” to the plan of Selex ES Limited to set up a joint venture with an Indian partner to start a defence electronics JV with 26 per cent stake.

Now the proposal goes to the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) which has taken a more liberalised view since last year about the applicant’s group companies being probed.

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May 2014 Defence AND security alert

India world’s 9th biggest arms buyer

Mine-resistant vehicles for Indian forces

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overnment of India is approaching the US authorities to purchase state-of-the-art Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles which the US forces have been extensively using in Iraq and Afghanistan. These 14 tonne, V-shaped hull vehicles called Cougar or Buffalo have minimised the US forces casualties in IED blasts and ambush operations. These vehicles which have a six inch thick bullet-proof glass can run on flat tyres and have a maximum speed of 100 kmph will be especially useful in anti-Maoist operations.

Prithvi II test-fired

A

s a user trial by the Indian Army nuclear capable surface to surface Prithvi II missile with a range of 350 km was recently test-fired successfully.

Indigenously developed Prithvi II missile is capable of carrying 500-1000 kg of warheads. Test-firing launch was reported to be perfect and all mission objectives were fully met.

US Navy plane flies on sea water!

S

cientists of US Navy using the US Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)’s gas-to-liquid technology have successfully flown a radio controlled airplane that runs purely on fuel derived from sea water. Researchers at the NRL claim that this is the first time that a technology of this nature has been demonstrated with the potential for transition from the laboratory to full-scale commercial implementation. The ultimate goal of the research team is to eventually get away from the dependence on oil altogether.

May 2014 Defence AND security alert

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alienated neighbours

lOOKinG eAst

INDIA AND THE

The Summit also endorsed the ongoing transition towards democracy in Myanmar in ways more than one. BIMSTEC Summit is the first multilateral head of governments meeting hosted by Myanmar this year.

It is important to note that Myanmar, which is undergoing swift process of political transition, will be hosting the ASEAN Summit later this year.

BIMSTEC

Religious Tourism Hub

The recently held third BIMSTEC Summit offers a new ray of hope for regional cooperation to Bay of Bengal littoral countries, which are bound together by numerous opportunities and transnational challenges.

E

ver since the conceptualisation of the Look East policy in 1992, India has been striving to strengthen bilateral and regional cooperation with countries in its eastern neighbourhood. Apart from engaging with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), India has also worked towards furthering subregional cooperation. The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral, Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) has been one of the major initiatives in that regard.

After a pause of five years, BIMSTEC finally geared up for its third Summit in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar. Heads of States from the member countries, including Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, participated in the Summit level dialogue in early March 2014. During his Myanmar visit, Singh also had bilateral discussions with his counterparts from Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar. During the meeting, agreements relating to cultural exchanges, weather warning and establishment of permanent secretariat were also signed.

SAARC In Tatters

The BIMSTEC Summit is a positive development for the grouping and its member countries as it offers a new ray of hope to the idea of regional cooperation for the South Asian countries. South Asia’s flagship organisation, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has failed to make any remarkable progress in the past three decades, leaving the dreams of regional harmony shattered. Over and over again, Pakistan has been a spoiler in SAARC raising bilateral dispute with India several times. In such a situation, it is imperative for India and other South Asian countries to look east. Barring Pakistan, Maldives and Afghanistan, all SAARC members are part of BIMSTEC. BIMSTEC provides India the opportunity to address the concerns of its eastern states including the north-eastern states of India.

Interestingly, the idea of a regional grouping comprising Bay of Bengal littoral countries was initially mooted by Thailand and the grouping came into existence in 1997.

Conceptualised as Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Thailand Economic Cooperation (BIST-EC), the grouping was rechristened as BIMSTEC during the first Summit in 2004 with Nepal and Bhutan getting on-board. The first BIMSTEC Summit was held in 2004 in Bangkok, while New

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May 2014 Defence AnD security Alert

Delhi hosted the second Summit in 2008. Comprising seven members – Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand, BIMSTEC aims to coalesce energies of South Asian countries with those from Southeast Asia, there by acting as a bridge between the two regions.

Meeting Point Of East And West

BIMSTEC also synergises the Look West Policy of Thailand with India’s Look East policy that aims to connect with countries of the Southeast Asian region. Needless to say that India and Thailand have critical roles to play in the grouping, which comprises of more than one-fifth of the world population and a combined Gross Domestic Product of US$ 2.5 trillion. Barring Bhutan and Nepal, all the members of BIMSTEC are littoral states of Bay of Bengal; thus bound together by numerous transnational challenges and common opportunities. Drugs and human trafficking, maritime piracy, transnational natural disasters such as cyclones and earthquakes has infested the region in ways more than one.

Sadly, BIMSTEC is also home to some of the poorest people who are deprived of the basic necessities of life including food, potable water, healthcare, education and livelihood.

At the regional level, illegal drug trafficking, insurgency and terrorism, natural disasters such as floods, cyclones and earthquakes mar the optimal growth and development of the member countries. To deal with these common challenges effectively, pooling of resources and putting up the ‘regional act’ together has become the need of the hour. Decision to establish a permanent secretariat in Dhaka is a major step in that context. Apart from shaping up the grouping, the move will also make Bangladesh a critically important stakeholder, without whose support greater connectivity between India and other members of BIMSTEC would be extremely difficult.

India has already pledged to contribute one third of total expenditure for the permanent secretariat, which will indeed make the grouping more effective and influential in shaping up the common future of Bay of Bengal littoral countries.

Apart from two major policy making bodies, the Summit level dialogue and Ministerial Meetings, the grouping has been functioning with operational bodies including Senior Officials Group, Working Group and Joint Working Groups. In a related development, Sumith Nakandala from Sri Lanka has been

chosen as the first secretary general of the BIMSTEC.

The Agenda

To streamline its functions and become more effective, BIMSTEC has earmarked 14 high priority areas, which include agriculture, anti-terrorism, climate change, communication, disaster management, energy, environment conservation, fisheries, international crime control, people to people contact, poverty alleviation, public health, trade and investment, technology, tourism and transport. India is the lead country in key sectors including tourism, transport and communication.

Clearly, enhancing land and maritime connectivity lies at the core of New Delhi’s agenda. This is important considering that India is striving to develop its north-eastern states.

Interestingly, north-eastern states of India share borders with five Asian nations – Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, Myanmar and Nepal. To realise the goals of North-east Vision 2020, north-eastern region must be projected as the focus area in terms of comprehensively linking with the South and Southeast Asian countries falling in the neighbourhood.

No Consensus On Framework

During the conclave, member countries mulled over the possibilities regarding the BIMSTEC Free Trade Agreement.

Except Bangladesh, all members inked the Framework Agreement in the Sixth Ministerial Meeting in 2003.

Bangladesh later joined the Framework Agreement in June 2004. However, the member countries, despite seventeen rounds of FTA negotiations have not arrived at a consensus on the framework and several constituent issues. Though the deadline for BIMSTEC FTA is 2017, it is advisable to go for serious and detailed negotiations considering the likely responses from India’s domestic constituency. This is important so that incidents that had happened during the India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement negotiations are not repeated. A calibrated and informed approach towards FTA that takes into account sensitivities of all is much needed.

BIMSTEC has the potential to enhance trade amongst member countries by leaps and bounds, taking advantage of their geographical location around the Bay of Bengal rim.

India needs to achieve a fine balance in reaping regional benefits without harming its farmers and the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector.

RAHUL MISHRA

The writer is a Research Fellow at Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi. He was previously a Visiting Research Fellow the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). From 2009 to 2013, he worked with Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.

BIMSTEC can indeed become a harbinger of development, if the remarkable linguistic, ethnic, cultural and demographic diversity of the region is harnessed in a systematic fashion. By virtue of being the biggest of them all, in terms of geographic and economic size, population and even cultural heritage, India must take up the responsibility to strengthen BIMSTEC. One of the major steps in that regard could be projecting BIMSTEC member countries as a ‘global hub of Buddhist tourism’. This is important considering that each BIMSTEC member country is endowed with rich Buddhist heritage. Interestingly, Theravada or the Southern School of Buddhism is prevalent in the BIMSTEC countries including Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Thailand. India’s contributions to the oldest surviving school of Buddhism could be immense if apart from creating a BIMSTEC Buddhist circuit; educational connectivity is promoted through the Nalanda University. Setting up a ‘BIMSTEC Studies Centre’ within a wider ASEAN Centre would greatly facilitate dissemination of knowledge about the common heritage of Bay of Bengal littoral countries. Clearly, robust educational and cultural linkages have the potential to bring the member countries closer.

India’s Key Role

By virtue of being the biggest member of the grouping, economically and geographically, India needs to step up its effort to make the organisation more effective. However, India has been slow to the point of reluctance in connecting its n orth-eastern states with Myanmar, Thailand and beyond.

India must ensure that regular air, road and rail links between India and other BIMSTEC members including Myanmar, Thailand and Bhutan start soon, which will be a decisive step on that count. Well-planned, effective and timely implementation of projects relating to infrastructure and connectivity has become the most important requirement in that regard.

A prosperous and peaceful Bay of Bengal rim demands collective efforts on part of littoral states to address scourge of poverty, lack of connectivity and transnational challenges.

BIMSTEC offers India the opportunity to not only engage its eastern neighbours but also work with them for mutual benefits, particularly for the seven sister states of India. Thus, BIMSTEC can be defined as “an opportunity in overalls for India”. Clearly, India and other member countries of the grouping have to put their act together in realising the goals they have set for themselves at BIMSTEC, which will, of course, be driven by bringing each member on-board.

May 2014 Defence AnD security Alert

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Military diplomacy

T

he Indian armed forces have planned as many as 25 combat exercises, professional exchanges and training deployments with different countries this year.

The countries being considered are the US, Russia, France, China, Brazil, Thailand, Mongolia, Indonesia, Myanmar and Malaysia etc. “A robust military relationship with a country is the cornerstone on which a bilateral strategic partnership is built. While we have been building bridges with different countries for some years, now strong booster dose is required to take it to the next level,” remarked a senior officer privy to this strategic development.

Iraq shuts Abu Ghraib prison

RK Dhowan is new navy chief

G

overnment of Iraq has announced that it has closed Abu Ghraib prison made infamous by Saddam Hussein’s regime and US forces due to security concerns following a mass escape last year.

The prison served as a notorious torture centre under Saddam Hussein with thousands of detainees perishing there. Abu Ghraib later also became a byword for abuses carried out by US forces following the 2003 invasion when photographs started surfacing showing Iraqi detainees being tortured and humiliated by American soldiers and guards.

A

dmiral Robin K Dhowan took over as the new Chief of Naval Staff, a post that was lying vacant for nearly two months since Admiral DK Joshi resigned suddenly in the wake of a series of naval mishaps. Admiral Dhowan who has commanded frontline warships like INS Delhi has superseded his senior Western Naval Commander Vice Admiral Shekhar Sinha who has put in his papers and sought voluntary retirement.

I

Indo-China strategic dialogue

US to augment missile defences in Japan

T

he US defence secretary Chuck Hagel has confirmed that US will expand its missile defences in Japan to counter the North Korean threat and checkmate China.

The US will assign two more Aegis Class destroyers to Japan by 2017 expanding its regional deployment of the missile-defence warships to seven.

ndian Foreign Secretary, Sujatha Singh recently co-chaired the sixth round of Indo-China strategic dialogue with her Chinese counterpart Vice Foreign Minister, Liu Zhenmin.

India assured China of its commitment to consolidate strategic bilateral ties based on mutual trust as well as sensitiveness to each other’s concerns and aspirations.

China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi has also reiterated that China is ready to work with India to fully implement the consensus reached by the top leadership of the two nations and push forward their “natural partnership”.

New BSF chief

D

K Pathak, senior IPS officer of 1979 batch of Assam-Meghalaya cadre has been appointed the new chief of the Border Security Force (BSF). Before this elevation, he was serving as the Special DG in the force. He is the 23rd DG of the elite Border Security Force which is the largest border guarding force in the world having strength of 250,000 brave and dedicated soldiers protecting India’s international borders.

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May 2014 Defence AnD security Alert

Pak arms in India via Bangladesh

I

ndian intelligence agencies have revealed that a large consignment of weapons from Pakistan has been smuggled into India via Bangladesh using Kutubdia Port.

Intelligence agencies suspect that the weapons could be intended for various insurgent groups in India especially the Maoists and anti-national elements in the north-east to disrupt elections in India.

India and China warships to tango!

T

o celebrate the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s 65th founding day, India’s indigenously built stealth frigate INS Shivalik will exercise in Chinese waters along with ships from China, Pakistan and other countries. The year 2014 has been declared as the “Year of Friendly Exchanges” between India and China. The upcoming visit of Shivalik is being seen as the two countries attempting to engage their militaries in confidence building measures.

ISI funds anti-India IM operations

A

recent intercept from Pakistan has revealed that ISI gave around Rs 26 crore to Indian Mujahideen Chief, Riyaz Bhatkal in the last three years for anti-India operations.

Riyaz who is based in Karachi is under tremendous pressure from ISI to perform and show results as most of the important members of the outfit and his network in India have been arrested.

May 2014 Defence AnD security Alert

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alienated neighbours

New UK intelligence chief

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US military drills in Europe

I

n the aftermath of Ukrainian upheavals, US is planning to carry out ground force exercises in Poland and Estonia in an endeavour to reassure east European NATO members worried and agitated about Russian military transgressions in and around Ukraine. To take stock of the developing situation and plan for future course of action, US defence secretary, Chuck Hagel met defence minister of Poland, Thomas Siemoniak. These moves are part of a broader effort

by NATO to strengthen the air, sea and land presence of the alliance in eastern Europe in response to Russian assertiveness.

K has appointed Robert Hannigan as the new Director of Intelligence Agency GCHQ. Hannigan was responsible for Britain’s first Cyber Security Strategy and held various senior positions including heading the Defence and Intelligence sections in the foreign office. Earlier Hannigan advised the Prime Minister on counter terrorism, intelligence and security policy and served in the Northern Ireland Office.

Combat role for SSB women

T

he government has approved the recruitment of young women as “Combat Officers” in the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB). The women officers after induction will have an opportunity to serve in far-flung border locations. Till now women could only don the combat uniforms in the officer cadre in three other central security forces – CRPF, CISF and BSF.

Ukraine accuses Russia of exporting terror

P

rime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk has accused Russia of fuelling terrorism in its eastern region as NATO bolsters the defence of the nearby European nations. Addressing a government meeting in Kiev, Yatsenyuk said that Russia now has a new commodity for export in addition to oil and gas – terrorism. According to NATO estimates, Russia has over 40,000 troops massed on Ukraine border after its annexation of Crimea last month. NATO pledged to hold more military drills in eastern Europe and step up air and naval policing on its flanks.

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May 2014 Defence AnD security Alert

sHAreD cOncerns

GEOSTRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF NEPAL

Two consistent but very dominant perceptions characterise Nepal-India relations. The first one regards that these relations are rooted, among others, in similarities of culture, tradition, religion, geography and the way of life. The counter view is that of India as a country still carrying an imperial legacy and haunted by the colonial mindset, always wanting to keep its smaller neighbours under its sphere of influence.

N

epal lies along the central Himalayas. This rectangular piece of South Asia has acted as an important bridge linking two ancient civilisations of the Asian continent, Tibet in the north later assimilated by China in 1959 and India in the south. The land slopes downwards from the almost impenetrable and mighty Himalayan wall of the north until it reaches the southern fertile Terai plains. The narrow track of Terai plains was once covered by thick tropical forest known as the ‘Char Kose Jhadi’[1]. Nepal was once much more extensive and included the present-day Indian Kumaun and Garhwal upto the river Sutlej.[2] Between the Himalayas and the Terai plains lie two mountain ranges running from west to east broken only by streams and rivers that run from north to south. These natural furrows have acted as natural barriers against the movement of people from one part of the country to the other which meant that the isolated communities could enjoy their own unique lifestyles without hindrance from others. The Mahabharat range reaching up to 10,000 ft in height takes up the largest area of the country and most of the Nepalis live on the slopes and valleys of this range. The Terai lies to the south of Chure and serves as the rice bowl of Nepal today.

Nepal’s shape is roughly rectangular, about 650 kilometers long and about 200 kilometers wide and comprises a total of 147,181 square kilometers of land. It is slightly larger than

Bangladesh. Nepal is a landlocked country, surrounded by India on three sides and by China’s Xizang Autonomous Region (Tibet) to the north. It is separated from Bangladesh by an approximately fifteen kilometer-wide strip of India’s state of West Bengal (known as the Siliguri corridor) and from Bhutan by the eighty-eight-kilometer-wide Sikkim, also an Indian state. Nepal is almost totally dependent on India for transit facilities and access to the sea, that is, the Bay of Bengal.

Strategic Determinant

Geographical position and historical development are major determinant factors of foreign policy that regardless of the kaleidoscopic change of contemporary events and no matter what form of government has been instituted or what political party may be in power, the foreign policy of a country has a natural tendency to return again and again to the same general and fundamental alignment’[3]. This is applicable in the Indo-Nepali context and has been evident in political relations since the establishment of the modern state of Nepal from its inception to the current period.

Shared Geostrategic Concerns

This unique location of Nepal is of immense strategic value to India as well as to China. India has traditionally looked at its northern frontiers with China as the Himalayan watershed.

This formidable military barrier can be crossed at selected places only and therefore lends itself for a strong defence

May 2014 Defence AnD security Alert

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sHAreD cOncerns

line requiring significantly lesser resources to defend. Any Chinese military or ideological influx or influence south of this watershed would be inimical to Indian interests. Militarily, the mountains of Nepal open out to the great Indian plains where defensible lines will be difficult to establish.

China, on the other hand, views its borders with Nepal, as the soft underbelly of Tibet[4]. It, therefore, finds it necessary to ensure that it retains adequate political, strategic and economic leverage in Nepal so that its security is not compromised.

Concurrently, the counter view is that of India as a country still carrying an imperial legacy and haunted by the colonial mindset, always wanting to keep its smaller neighbours under its sphere of influence and its conduct has never matched its stated commitment of friendship. It is often wondered, in this view, whether India is Nepal’s true and well-meaning friend, as it always professes, or does it merely want to perennially expand its political, social and economic footprints in Nepal, even if it means creating constant regime changes through the creation of multiple power centres?

The Siliguri corridor also merits serious consideration.

This small corridor is the only rail and road link between rest of India and its north-eastern states. Its security is, therefore, vital for India and it can be jeopardised by a small military manoeuvre or by subverting the people living in this area. Subversion can be easily carried out by political or ideological or religious fundamentalist forces both in Nepal and in Bangladesh. Chinese military presence, south of the watershed will pose serious threats to this area.

These two dominant perceptions do in fact mirror a great deal of truth about existing bilateral relations. Dwelling on Nepal-India relations in his “Aatmabritanta”, late BP Koirala had very aptly explained, “Our ties shouldn’t be interpreted only on the basis of ancient history and culture. Look at Europe; it may be one culturally, but they were always fighting and killing each other. Distrust does not disappear just because there is cultural affinity. Relationships are dependent upon differing perspectives on society and differing expectations of the future”.

Nepal’s southern borders with India are open, porous and in places difficult to monitor. Any anti-India activity in Nepali border areas will find easy access to a poorly guarded and insecure heartland. These activities could be ISI sponsored violence, smuggling, drug running, fake currency notes and other economic offences.

In India’s dealings with Nepal, it is desirable to establish a more equitable relationship. India needs to accept that there are now new important players in Nepal who have the legitimacy and the approval of the people at large. These players look at interdependence and bilateral relations in a different paradigm which need not necessarily be anti-India[5]. Channels of communication with all these political parties need to be cultivated for their views will define Nepal in the future. Economically India must continue to give Nepal latitude due to the existing economic asymmetry between the two countries. The border must be well monitored jointly with infrastructural and support facilities provided by India.

Ecological Management

All Nepali rivers flow into the Ganges. Unchecked flows, every year, cause floods leading to serious social and economic havoc in India. Nepal plans to construct storage dams as well as electricity generation plants. Any uncontrolled release of water in critical periods of the monsoons may be detrimental to India’s security requirements. A close and friendly relationship is therefore warranted as any inimical political setup may be unresponsive to India’s concerns and release of water at critical moments during the monsoon period will have very serious consequences economically and socially for India.

India and Nepal share common and interdependent economic, cultural and social links. Both are democracies and retention of this political state of affairs is highly desirable.

View And Contra-view

Two consistent but very dominant perceptions characterise Nepal-India relations. The first one regards that these relations are rooted, among others, in similarities of culture, tradition, religion, geography and the way of life and these unique traits of similarities are viewed as of great strength and virtues of enduring nature. India is held as Nepal’s closest of friends, a friend that has always stood

by Nepal’s side in troubled times. Occasional bumps in relations are taken as natural because of the intensive and extensive nature of these relations. The underpinnings of relations are believed to be strong enough to withstand any occasional ups and downs. It is generally stressed that both countries must continue to strive for the consolidation of the foundation of these relations in light of the changing needs of time and to expand them further into more mutually beneficial areas of cooperation.

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May 2014 Defence AnD security Alert

What is in India’s best interests? A stable Nepal is our highest priority. The failure to move forward towards the framing of a constitution is the single most destabilising factor in Nepal today. Regardless of the anti-India rhetoric emerging from various political parties in Nepal from time to time, all of them look to India for help in troubled times. It is in our interests to help them find solutions to their problems.

When faced with a common enemy, (the monarchy), who threatened them with extinction in 2005-06, all the parties in Nepal came together and in the bargain a long-running insurgency too ended.

Today, India must strive to convince the Nepalese parties that the danger that they face from not being able to write a constitution is as grave as the one they faced earlier from monarchical dictatorship.

References

Lal CK, Political Ecology of the Madhes, Issue # 364 (31 Aug 2007 - 06 Sept 2007) |, Nepali Times.

[2] Dr Harka Gurung: Nepali Nationalism.

[3] Richard von Kühlmann, The Permanent Bases of German Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, Vol 9, No 2 (Jan, 1931), pp 179-194.

[4] Political impasse takes Nepal to brink, Dhruba Adhikary, Nepal news.com, 19 Apr 2010.

[5] Padmaja Murthy, Time to Reassess Indo-Nepal Relations, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.

10 September 2009.

[1]

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India’s

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