DSA November 2009 by Defence and Security Alert

NOVEMBER 2009

VOL 1 ISSUE 2

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INSIDE: Tackling terrorism 26/11 ● Red mayhem ● China energy security: Game plan ● Param Vir recipients ●

Sino-Indian

Tango

editor in chief

DSA is as much yours as it is ours!

Thank

you dear readers for your overwhelming response to our inaugural issue and sending your valued comments and words of encouragement which will inspire us to further improve the quality of DSA as it is as much yours as ours. During the course of a security seminar in Beijing a few years ago, a Chinese professor made an intriguing remark. In a completely out of context observation he said that India had occupied China for more than a thousand years, but without sending a soldier. He then clarified by saying that the occupation occurred in the mind, with the advent of Buddhism and the subsequent overhaul of the Chinese psyche. It was a comment that has stayed in my mind ever since, constantly challenging me to ponder over it. And compelling me to analyse what it is that has happened to the two people ever since. Suffice to say that these two are in fact the last of the civilisational states left in a world that is getting ever homogenised under the onslaught of globalised cultural standards. Those that were civilisations as well don't have the States that reflect their inheritance. And yet, despite such a unique intellectual and philosophical past, the neighbours are as psychologically apart as two could possibly be. What is it that has driven such a chasm between two societies that have shared so much in the past, and now live a relationship defined largely by a niggling border dispute. It is for this reason that we visit the China question in this, our second, issue. Cmde (Retd) C Uday Bhaskar addresses some of the concerns.

Especially in the context of events of the past few months, more so in October, wherein the two most populous countries seemed to be heading into a vortex. Dr Ravni Thakur looks at the issue of China's energy concerns, a topic of immense global importance. As remarked earlier, we continue to address the concerns raised by Naxal violence. This time Sh Prakash Singh, using his years of experience in various policing roles, dissects the problem from his perspective. In subsequent issues we will continue to return to this subject. Terror, as the world knows the term, is analysed by another outstanding police officer, Sh VK Deuskar. While the pressing, and perennial, concern of police reforms finds the attention of Sh Sankar Sen. The last word is clearly awaited on this topic. Sh Deba Mohanty uses his research and analytical skills in dissecting the defence budget, 2009. Air Marshal (Retd) SG Inamdar begins a two-part analysis on the widely used, but little understood term, Revolution in Military Affairs. It is the future, on that there is no dispute, but how are we coping with the challenges it forces on us is a matter that requires greater attention. Similarly, two former uniformed officers, RSN Singh and Rajiv Mata, address theoretical questions relating to national security and strategy. All theories come to get challenged, however, under the vexing glare of demographic changes occurring, especially in the context of Assam. Sh HK Bhattacharyya lays the story bare on that one. Brig (Retd) Anil Sharma and Ms Justyna Bajer address issues concerning NATO, with the former even contemplating a competitor. India barely raised its eyes to the fact that NATO had in fact operated at the door of the country, while undertaking earthquake rescue operations in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Have the country's security concerns evolved to such a degree? The jury is out, and you dear readers, are its members. So keep the mind ticking, questioning, and fingers writing.

manvendra singh

stop press FINAL WARNING

publisher’s view

Vol I Issue II

November 2009

chairman shyam sunder publisher & ceo pawan agrawal editor-in-chief manvendra singh sales & advertising shishir bhushan international business (uk & europe) shrey agrawal art consultant divya gupta central saint martins college of art & design, university of arts, london assistant editor shilpi aggarwal correspondent (europe) justyna bajer art & graphics dilshad & dabeer sr. photographer subhash circulation & distribution ranjeet, prakash e-mail: (first name)@dsalert.org info: info@dsalert.org articles: articles@dsalert.org subscription: subscription@dsalert.org advertisement: advt@dsalert.org editorial & business office 4/19 asaf ali road new delhi-110002, india t: +91-011-23243999, 23287999 f: +91-11-23259666 e: info@dsalert.org articles@dsalert.org advt@dsalert.org subscription@dsalert.org www.dsalert.org

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We seek your greater support Dear reader, We are delighted to bring you the second issue with a glow in the heart at the response to our inaugural issue of Defence & Security Alert. As expected it had struck a chord with a wide cross-section of our targeted readership in Defence and Security forces, academia, intellectuals and the young and ignited minds. The overwhelming response in faceto-face meetings and messages tells us that we hit bullseye. Specifics like Nehru's assessment of the Chinese (given the current state of Indo-China relations) were eye-openers for the new generation and we feel that if it generates realistic perspectives and analyses we would have contributed to sounding the alert as per our mission statement. From the publisher's point of view particularly gratifying was the praise and admiration for the design, layout of copy, photographs and illustrations in the magazine and the printing. It needs to be reiterated that DSA is the product and amalgam of 75 years of our experience in publishing. That we have been able to distill it in the inaugural issue of DSA is evidence that we are learning, as we go along, to be relevant, modern and state-of-the-art. This is because of our intent and resolve never to compromise on the quality standards. We take this opportunity to reiterate our commitment to focus on the whole gamut of government policies and strategies and the role and responsibilities of both public sector and private enterprise to orientate their industrial infrastructure and research and development facilities to create equipment for the defence and security. The intention is to marry geo-strategic thought with the tools and wherewithal to counter the emerging challenges.

Chidambaram’s Stern Warning to Pakistan Indian Home Minister P Chidambaram at Madurai on October 31, 2009

Another 26/11 will invite

fierce retaliation Our strength to take on terrorism from foreign soil is increasing by the day. I have been warning Pakistan not to play any more games. Let Mumbai be the last such game. If they carry out any more attacks on India, they will not only be defeated, but we will also retaliate with the force of a sledgehammer.

“Till my last drop of blood, I will not allow armed revolution or terrorism and violence to overwhelm us in India.” Unlike the Pakistanis, Naxalites are not our enemies, they are our own people, they can fight for their rights, but they should do so through democratic means. I am not asking them to lay down their arms. But let them keep their arms silent and come forward for a dialogue.

Very timely and stringent notice to Pakistan to refrain from disturbing OUR PEACE. Defence & Security Alert (DSA) is owned, printed and published by pawan agrawal on behalf of ocean media private limited and printed at graphic world, 1686, kucha dakhini rai, darya ganj, new delhi-110002 and published at ocean media private limited, 4/19 asaf ali road, new delhi (india).

DSA salutes the mettle and vision of our valiant Home Minister, P Chidambaram. pawan agrawal

‘JAI HIND!’

contents COVER STORY

ISSUE NOVEMBER / 2009 VOLUME 1 ISSUE 2

conflict eclipsed accord by H K Bhattacharyya IPS (Retd)

30 A

sino-indian tango sino-indian relations today by Cmde Uday Bhaskar (Retd)

global affairs afghanistan dares new n a t o chief by Justyna Bajer

contents

in focus tackling terrorism by VK Deuskar IPS (Retd)

geo-politics will s c o rein in n a t o? by Brig (Dr) Anil Sharma (Retd)

gallantry awards know our heroes

methodologies economics of terror by Rashmi Sarmah

introspection a sordid tale of indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s strategic culture by RSN Singh

atrocites kashmir: woes of militarisation by Gyan Prakash Pilania IPS (Retd)

19 naxal net

red mayhem by Prakash Singh IPS (Retd)

analysis police reforms: a categorical imperative by Sankar Sen IPS (Retd)

neighbour watch china energy security: canny game plan by Dr Ravni Thakur

national security national security and strategy: getting the basics right by Gr Capt Rajiv Mata (Retd)

F E A T U R E S

insight new government, old wine by Deba R Mohanty

security tips safe and secure indoors

defence visions unravelling r m a by Air Marshal SG Inamdar (Retd)

women in uniform breaking the glass ceiling: Lt. General Puneeta Arora by Shilpi Aggarwal

for online edition of Defence & Security Alert (DSA)

others cartoon

jokes

by Udayshankar

please log on to: www.dsalert.org

dsa inbox INAUGURAL ISSUE

info@dsalert.org INAUGURAL ISSUE - OCT 2009

lert Security A Defence & ad i ro 4/19 asaf al dia 110002, in new delhi-

■ Thank you for sending me a copy of your magazine. I found the issue very informative and useful. I particularly liked its contents, presentation and attractive looks. My best wishes to all of you. May you continue to do the good work. Air Chief Marshal SP Tyagi, Gurgaon .................... ■ Awareness levels involving the security of the country are extremely limited in India particularly among those who are at the helm of decision making. The country of our size and growing importance has to correct this anomaly. I think your magazine will contribute substantially and meaningfully towards that end in the months and years to come. Lt.Gen. Shantonu Chowdhry, Noida .................... ■ Good to see DSA. It has an impressive look and I'm sure it will be popular. Congratulations and all the best. Subimal Bhattacharjee Country Head-India, General Dynamics Ltd. .................... ■ Thank you for having sent me a copy of the inaugural issue of the Defence & Security Alert magazine. I have perused the same with great pleasure and interest and I take this opportunity to compliment you and the rest of the staff of DSA for having brought out a truely world-class magazine. The articles are well researched, well written, topical and thought provoking. What is more is that they have been written by known experts in their respective fields which gives stature to your magazine. I have no doubt that your magazine will become a leading one in the Defence Field in the times to come. Lt.Gen.VK Jetly (Retd), Gurgaon .................... ■ Many thanks for the first issue of DSA which I enjoyed reading. It is indeed a serious professional journal and i congratulate you for your bold initiative into the field of defence and security related journalism. Very kind of you to remember me at this occasion. With best wishes for an immense success for DSA. Maj. Gen. (Retd) SS Nair, AVSM .................... ■ Your inaugural issue provides an overview of the internal security scenario in the country. Ashok Parthasarathi's lines are a revelation of the hitherto little known views of Jawaharlal Nehru on the Chinese. The story on Maoists is exhaustive and could have been more brief and direct. The articles are well researched and the journal provides a good medium for critical appraisal of the Nation’s Security. Ajit Doval's insight into the Valley's situation is a

valuable contribution. Congratulations on your effort. K. VIJAYA RAMA RAO (IPS), Hyderabad .................... ■ Congratulations for bringing out one of the best Publications this year. The entire get up, content and quality are all landmark achievements and i am certain this magazine will surpass some of the old stalwarts in this field. Of course, sustaining and maintaining a standard are important and I am sure with such an august editorial team, the sky is the limit. Remember, you had aimed to make it light so let it not tend to be text bookish, please make a deliberate effort to lighten the subject. Good luck and God speed. I hope it is on the shelves of IDSA & USI. Col. Riten Khosla, Gurgaon .................... ■ It’s a pleasure to see the amount of professionalism with which the articles have been conceived, the in-depth analysis and well researched view points. However it is very sad to note that the magazine readership appears to be limited and the magazine will be failing in its mission of influencing national policymaking. It will be very highly appreciated if institutional research and decision making can be influenced by the research carried out in these subjects. Speaking the right things to a limited readership has not helped any nation. It is policy decisions which steer the society or nations. The articles should be able to mould policy in the right context. Humbly accepting my ignorance on the matter. Om Prakash, DSA reader .................... ■ Thank you very much for the mail. I look forward to contribute some work. This is very impressive and admirable magazine. I will be in touch with you with further updates. Anurag Pandey, Senior Research Scholar/Asst. Professor, University of Delhi .................... ■ Yes, I did receive the magazine which I was very impressed by. I will ensure you receive relevant news about General Dynamics UK in future. Andrew Boyle, Senior Manager, International Corporate Affairs, General Dynamics United Kingdom Limited, London ■ Got the copy of DSA. It looks absolutely fabulous.

My congratulations once again. Wish you all the best for future. Vivek Yadav (IPS), Delhi Police .................... ■ I have received the inaugural issue of DSA and I read over the same from page 1 to 81 in a day. It is very useful and thought provoking magazine. Your magazine should be appreciated for raising the burning topic of Security and Defence of our nation, spreading awareness in the citizens of the country particularly the youth generation to think over seriously about the integrity and sovereignty of India and similar connected issues. The article written by Mr. Harsh V. Pant, Mr. Ajit Doval and Vice Admiral Arun Prakash Singh (Retd) are worth reading. Mr.Ajit Doval has rightly mentioned the road blocks in solving the problems of Jammu and Kashmir and suggestions made by him are very accurate and appropriate. Lastly, many thanks to you from me and likeminded nation loving persons for publishing such nice and wonderful periodical. Raj Kumar Gupta, Advocate, Supreme Court .................... ■ Thank you for sending me a copy of the inaugural issue of Defence & Security Alert. At first glance, DSA is very well-produced, and it certainly has some “heavy hitters” contributing to it! I look forward to your online version as well. Please pass on my best wishes to your team, and thank you once again for sending me a copy of the magazine. Congratulations and God speed. Shiv Aroor, Senior Special Correspondent Headlines Today, TV Today Network, New Delhi .................... ■ Thanks for the inaugural issue of DSA. I found its content rich and with excellent production values and designing. Regarding my contribution, I would certainly contribute. Tentatively on the issue of cyber security. Vakul Sharma, Advocate, New Delhi

in focus HOT PURSUIT

tackling

terrorism A big question: Is India — an emerging super power, a leading economy — prepared to defend its national security, its people? Over the decades, has it finally learnt to deal with terrorism? The answer is NO. This ‘No’ has even got bigger after Mumbai 26/11 attacks. The people have finally learnt to live under constant fear and have resigned to their fate. But does that mean things will keep on going as it has always been? What course of action, a government can adopt to restore the public faith? Read on…

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

V K Deuskar IPS (Retd)

or anyone even remotely connected to defence or security, the very thought of providing security to India is mind blowing. We have no dearth of enemies around us and some of them have been actively involved in causing damage to, and attempting to destabilize our country. The enemy has many options open to him. Creating terror by bombings, sabotaging railways, ammunition dumps, vital installations as well as senseless killing of innocents like in 26/11 episodeare the primary options. Other alternatives are financial sabotage (fake currency distribution), drug smuggling, large scale infiltration of foreigners, planting terrorist sleeper cells in the cities, to name a few. The greatest advantage a terrorist has is to plan the time and place to commit a terrorist act. The security agencies have no means to anticipate this unless they have access to exceptionally good intelligence, which is very rare. Most often, there are intelligence reports of impending terrorist strikes but they are so vague regarding the time and place that they are of little use. Terrorism has proved to be a good means of damaging a nation, by making it

drain its resources - millions of man hours and money - on deploying thousands of security personnel for anti-terror work, which would have otherwise been used for development activities. In order to create an atmosphere of terror, Pakistan is infiltrating its trained and well-equipped terrorists into India, taking advantage of our vulnerable geographic situation. We have a long coastline of 7,500 km. with 12 major and 187 minor ports. We share 900 km. border with Pakistan and also a long porous border with Bangladesh and Nepal. It is impossible to prevent infiltration through the deserts of Rajasthan, or the thick forested mountains of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), or the border villages of Bangladesh. The same applies to coastline as well, where there are hundreds of coastal villages from which thousands of fishing boats operate. So, the only option we have is to carry out intensive patrolling of the borders, which run into thousands of kilometers, or to depend on intelligence agencies' information to trap the infiltrators.

Defensive measures One thing is certain: infiltrators require local support to make a firm base in India. The support base could be local

sympathisers, or could be Pakistani sleeper cells already operating here. In some cases, they may use greedy landlords with the lure of exorbitant rents. Most of the sleeper cells are likely to be found in congested minority localities, in the cities having a large minority population. In many such localities, local police is also hesitant to act. Under these circumstances, it becomes very difficult for security agencies as well to prevent terrorist acts. Therefore the only choices open for them are to pursue the following course of action: ● All police stations, under whose

jurisdiction such localities fall, should collect information about all the outsiders living in the area; they must verify their antecedents say, place of birth, parents, relatives, education, place of service or business etc. A house-to-house survey needs to be carried out. Despite a lot of resistance to this move, which is bound to happen, police must do its duty. ● Encourage the public to give information regarding suspicious persons, who appear to be involved in such activities. People should be assured of their safety that their names will not be disclosed and the information given by them will be kept

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

in focus HOT PURSUIT relatives, and have gone into hiding and under wraps. For this, a fool-proof method No better measure have not gone back. Negligible efforts have has to be evolved. Informers who lead to than Attack been made to trace them and deport them. arrests should be duly rewarded. This needs to be done. ● It should be made mandatory for all the Enumerated above are the various ● Lakhs of Bangladeshis have infiltrated landlords to inform police about hiring out defensive measures to prevent terrorist into the eastern States and West Bengal. their properties to people who come from attacks. They may prevent some attacks but Their residence has been legalised by outside the state. they are not foolproof and cannot stop a ● Intelligence through the State and granting them voter cards, ration cards, etc. determined enemy from carrying out such Central agencies needs to be gathered and due to the vote bank politics. As a result, acts. As they say, “Attack is the best form followed up to trace the infiltrators. some of the smaller States are on the verge of Defence”, the other course of actions we ● Set up decoys and offer weapons, of becoming Muslim majority states. This have are following: ● Direct military action to destroy the explosives, and ammunition or other aspect needs special attention. Otherwise it terrorist camps inside Pakistan without facilities to the infiltrators. will be a major threat to the security and ● Infiltrate into terrorist organisations to paying too much attention to US pressure. integrity of the country, and there could be obtain information about their activities, We have to assert our authority when it is demands for separate States in future. ● In India, laws and procedures to deal their hideouts, army dumps, their plans, a matter of national security, which cannot etc. Of course, this is easier said than be compromised at any cost even if it done. But if everything is properly annoys the US. We have to accept the planned out, it can do wonders in fact that the US is never going to give successfully neutralizing the terrorist priority to India over Pakistan because network. of its own vested interests. ● Carry out an intensive border ● We should stop blowing hot and patrolling; use the latest gadgetry for cold, and stick resolutely to a stand night vision, electronic sensors for once taken. If we take a stand that monitoring movements etc. The there can be no dialogue with Pakistan people living in border villages, if unless all the suspects like Dawood motivated, can prove very useful in and the other perpetrators of 26/11 are intercepting the infiltrators. handed over to India to try them, we ● Monitor sea vessels all along the should stick to this stand rigidly. coastline to check infiltration Come what may. The moment we Direct military action to destroy through sea, as was done by the dilute our stand, we will be treated the terrorist camps inside Pakistan as pliable. And the pressure mounts, terrorists in recent Mumbai attacks. The fishermen need to be motivated without paying too much attention which is exactly what is happening to keep watch and report the now. to US pressure. We have to assert ● Pay Pakistan back in the same suspicious activities. For this, fast coin. If we inflict ten terrorist attacks communication channels should be our authority when it is a matter Pakistan for each terrorist act in established. of national security, which cannot on ● Sleeper cells are of no use to the India, automatically these attacks be compromised at any cost even enemy unless they are coordinated, will cease as they become counterequipped and funded. Try to find outproductive. if it annoys the US. who are coordinating these cells; Undoubtedly, the above plan of from where the funds and equipment action has many difficulties due to are coming. If the coordinators are caught, with terrorists are very soft and painfully the political implications. Some political these cells can easily be traced and slow. They need to be simplified so that a parties would certainly oppose these eliminated. terrorist should be hanged within a month methods. But in that case, we have no ● In the past 25 years, thousands of of being caught. other recourse but to continue to be at the ● The provision of Presidential pardon for Mazhars have come up all along the receiving end of these terrorist activities. terrorists should be scrapped. The moment National and State highways as well as in Our citizens have no option but to a court awards a punishment to a terrorist, the cities. No one visits these Mazhars but continue living under the threat of another it should be carried out. Delay in meting out they are maintained. The same applies to terrorist attack. We must remember one punishments sends wrong signals to the Mosques. Thousands of mosques have fact of life that no one dares to attack an enemy as well as undermines the faith of the come up all over the country. To my enemy if he knows that the enemy will people in the government. It also creates a knowledge, in a colony of 1 sq km, there are inflict ten times more damage to him in suspicion that there may be terrorist seven mosques and one Madarsa. Each retaliation. sympathisers in the government itself. must have cost a few lakhs to construct. In ● A number of human right activists have The writer is Retd. IPS officer and most of them, the attendance is generally mushroomed all over the country. The Ex-DGP. He conducted research for not more than two to five persons. It will be moment police starts action against National Police Academy on organised worth finding out-why these mosques and terrorists or naxalites, these activists become crime, and Impact of Evaluation of I.P.S. Mazhars have come up and from where the vociferous against alleged police atrocities Training. He also served as principal of funds came. ● In the last couple of decades, thousands and start pressurising the authorities. They CISF Training College. Before joining of Pakistanis have come to India under the need to be curbed and persuaded to find IPS, he was with Gorkha Regiment for pretext of vacationing or for visiting their some other lucrative profession. 5 years.

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

MISSION The power of a king lies in his mighty arms… Security of the citizens at peace time is very important because State is the only saviour of the menn and women who get affected only because of the negligence of the State.

—Chanakya

gallantry awards PARAM VIR CHAKRA

T 2nd Lt Arun Khetarpal

2nd Lt. Rama Raghoba Rane

Captain G.S. Salaria

Major Dhan Singh Thapa

Major Hoshiar Singh

Major R. Parameswaran

Captain Vikram Batra

CHM Piru Singh

CQMH Abdul Hamid

Major Shaitan Singh

Major Somnath Sharma

Naib Subedar Bana Singh

Flying Officer N.J.S. Sekhon

Grenadier Yogender Singh Yadav

Lance Naik Albert Ekka

Naik Jadunath Singh

Rifleman Sanjay Kumar

Subedar Joginder Singh

Mrs. Savitri Khanolankar designed the PVC

PARAM VIR CHAKRA

KNOW OUR

HEROES

DSA salutes our Heroes

he Param Vir Chakra (PVC) is India's highest military decoration awarded for the highest degree of valour or self-sacrifice in the presence of the enemy. It is the post-Independence equivalent of the British Victoria Cross, U.S. Medal of Honor, or French Legion of Honor or Russian Cross of St. George. It can be, and often has been, awarded posthumously. Param Vir means “Bravest of the Brave” in Sanskrit. The PVC is the highest gallantry award. Award of the decoration carries with it the right to use P.V.C. as a post-nominal abbreviation. The medal was designed by Mrs. Savitri Khanolankar (born Eva Yuonne Linda Maday-de-Maros to a Hungarian father and Russian mother), who was married to an Indian Army officer. By sheer coincidence, the first PVC was posthumously awarded to her son-in-law, Major Somnath Sharma for his bravery in the Kashmir operations in November 1947. The medal symbolises great sage, Dadhich, who, according to the Indian mythology, donated his thigh bones to gods for making Vajra, and Shivaji's sword, Bhawani. The medal is of 1-3/8 inch radius and is made of bronze. In the center, on a raised circle is the State emblem, surrounding which are the four replicas of Indra's Vajra. The decoration is suspended from a straight swiveling suspension bar. On the rear, around a plain center, two legends separated by lotus flowers. The words 'Param Vir Chakra' are written in Hindi and English. The ribbon which holds the PVC is of 32 mm length and purple in colour. The award carries a cash allowance for those under the rank of Second Lieutenant (or the appropriate service equivalent) and, in some cases, a lump-sum cash award. Subedar Major Bana Singh, 8 Jammu and Kashmir Light Infantry, was the only serving personnel of the Indian defence establishment, with a PVC till the Kargil operations. Lieutenant Colonel (retd.) Dhan Singh Thapa, 1/8 GR, was the other surviving PVC awardee, till the Kargil operations. He was awarded the PVC, when he was a Major.

AWARD INFORMATION Type Eligibility

Medal Military personnel only

STATISTICS Established First awarded Last awarded Total awarded Posthumous awards

26 January, 1950 November, 1947 July, 1999 21 14

PRECEDENCE Next (higher) Next (lower)

Lance Naik Karam Singh

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

Lieutenant Manoj K. Pandey

LIST OF AWARDEES 1947-48 J&K Operations ● Major Somnath Sharma, 4 Kumaon, posthumous ● 2nd Lt. Rama Raghoba Rane, Corps of Engineers ● CHM Piru Singh, 6 Rajputana Rifles, posthumous ● Naik Jadunath Singh, 1 Rajput, posthumous ● Lance Naik Karam Singh, 1 Sikh 1962 Indo-China War Major Shaitan Singh, 13 Kumaon, posthumous ● Major Dhan Singh Thapa, 1/8 Gorkha Rifles ● Subedar Joginder Singh, 1 Sikh, posthumous ●

None Maha Vir Chakra

Lt. Col. A.B. Tarapore

1965 Indo-Pak War ● Lt. Col. A.B. Tarapore, 17 Poona Horse, posthumous ● CQMH Abdul Hamid, 4 Grenadiers, posthumous 1971 Indo-Pak War Major Hoshiar Singh, 3 Grenadiers ● 2nd Lt. Arun Khetarpal, 17 Poona Horse, posthumous ● Flying Officer N.J.S. Sekhon, No. 18 Squadron, posthumous ● Lance Naik Albert Ekka, 14 Guards, posthumous ●

1999 Kargil Operations Captain Vikram Batra, 13 JAK Rifles, posthumous

●

Lieutenant Manoj K. Pandey, 1/11 Gorkha Rifles, posthumous ● Grenadier Yogender Singh Yadav, 18 Grenadiers ● Rifleman Sanjay Kumar, 13 JAK Rifles UN Operations Captain G.S. Salaria, 3/1 Gurkha Rifles, posthumous

●

Siachen Operations Naib Subedar Bana Singh, 8 JAK LI

●

Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) Operations Major R. Parameswaran, 8 Mahar, posthumous

●

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

methodologies TERROR FUNDING

Rashmi Sarmah

economics

of terror

There are ways and ways of funding and abetting terror. It could be government-togovernment as former President of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf has illustrated in his autobiography where he admitted to receiving millions of dollars for handing over small fry terrorists to the US. But he hid the big fish in safe houses and that is why the next tranche of US assistance to Pakistan has all the conditionalities of the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Act. Are Pakistan Air Force planes being used to ferry petrodollars to Osama bin Laden in return for protection for a particular government? A list of some other methodologies:

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

formidable network that spans several countries in the subcontinent and this benefits not only Islamist outfits but also secessionist groups like the ULFA in the North East. Beginning with the days when war was waged against the USSR in Afghanistan, Pakistan has followed policies that have not only facilitated a convergence of smuggling, gun-running, money laundering and hawala but have actually streamlined the entire mechanism for the flow of funds. Not surprisingly, an estimate by the US Department of State has revealed that remittances to India through legal channels in 2007-08 amounted to US $42.6 billion whereas approximately US $16 billion worth transactions were made through hawala in the same year. The report suspects that some of these transactions were directly linked to terror funding in India. In October 2008 the Mumbai police Crime Branch found out that the Indian Mujahideen was receiving money from Gulf countries through hawala networks and the Western Union Money Transfer. Similarly Kashmir-based separatist groups such as Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) and LeT have also been using hawala transactions as a source to fund their activities. inance is the lifeblood of most terrorist operations. Terrorism has different forms perpetrated by a host of actors who have to be sustained economically and ideologically. Terrorist outfits in India have devised ingenious means to ensure a steady and stealthy flow of funds through domestic means and global networks. Therefore, choking the flow of funds into terrorist hands is an essential ingredient in the strategy to combat terrorism. But in India the effort leaves much to be desired given that an effective coordination between different agencies and a greater allocation of resources to tackle the menace are yet to be seen. In South Asia, the role of Pakistan in terror funding has made the situation more complex but easier for terrorists to keep their machinery well-oiled. Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan's external intelligence agency, has erected a

Legit routes Terrorists make use of legitimate channels and enterprises to generate and divert funds. Instances of terrorist outfits manipulating the stock markets to raise funds for their operations have been reported. Stock Exchanges in Mumbai and Chennai have on certain occasions reported that conjured or notional companies were engaging in stock-market operations and some of these companies were later traced to terrorist outfits. Security agencies have also found evidence of legitimate banking channels being used to fund operations. Individual transactions are usually small so as not to attract attention and avoid detection. Use of both real and fraudulent ATM cards has also been resorted to at times. Contributions from individuals,

expatriate communities and charity organisations also sustain numerous organisations. It is possible that sincere contributors to such trusts are unaware that a sizeable portion of the funds go to terrorist outfits. Some organisations in the Middle East have been found to change their nomenclature to camouflage their activities. The Al Rashid Trust and Islamic Relief are sterling examples and their funds were routed through established banking channels such as the Habib Bank in Pakistan.

Extortion Terrorists are known to use forced and compulsory donations. Intelligence inputs suggest that the Pakistan based Lashkar-eToiba's monthly mouthpiece Majalah-alDawana and its weekly magazine Al Ghazwa, are sold through forced subscription. Intimidation of small businesses, individuals and even some State enterprises to extort funds has become common as in the case of several North East based organizations. ULFA has used extortion since its inception in 1979 from major business groups, oil exploration and tea business firms. Drug trafficking and gun-running are major sources of terrorist financing in South Asia. While Afghanistan's thriving opium cultivation and its funding of the Taliban and other similar organisations is well known, others like the CPI (Maoists) and a few North East outfits like the NSCN (Khaplang) have also gained immensely from this profitable venture. Involvement is both in the form of direct cultivation as well as levying a tax on farmers who cultivate in return for protection. Counterfeiting of currency is currently a favourite method being adopted to fund terrorist activities directed at India. Large amounts of high quality counterfeit Indian currency are detected each year - the normal route being via Nepal and Bangladesh. In 2008, the Border Security Force (BSF) had submitted a report to the Ministry of Home Affairs giving details of fake currency units that are operated from Sherpur in Bangladesh.

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

methodologies TERROR FUNDING Money laundering Moving funds to active cadres who are actually involved in the crime is a carefully planned exercise. Terrorist outfits as a rule make use of money laundering techniques with a view to evading detection by government agencies. Money laundering is the practice of disguising illegally obtained funds so that they seem legal. The most fashionable trend employed in South Asia for laundering funds is the underground and parallel banking systems which makes it extremely difficult to track funds utilized for terrorist purposes since no audit is available. The need to counter money laundering has gained importance after the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Centre in the US. Several countries including India have erected legal frameworks to choke the flow of funds to terrorist organisations. India has the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999, Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances Act, 2003 and Prevention of Money Laundering Act, 2003 in addition to provisions in other Acts such as the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act of 1967 as amended in 2004 to deal specifically with terrorism. The Reserve Bank of India has directed banks to be careful before opening an account of a customer. Stringent AntiMoney Laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) guidelines for banks and financial institutions are also now in place. A Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) to probe dubious money trails has been set up in 2004 and sources said that at least 200 financial transactions in the country have been marked as "terror financed" with trails to foreign shores. Adoption by the UN General Assembly of the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy has made possible a global consensus to emerge on measures that States must undertake to prevent and combat terrorism. India is committed to fully implementing the Strategy and has also joined the International Convention for the Suppression of Financing of Terrorism. India has been working with its international partners and regional organisations to combat international terrorism in all its aspects and has constituted Joint Working Groups with 27 countries for coordinating and cooperating in counter-terrorism efforts. These Groups have proved valuable in providing a forum for the exchange of information and experiences. In addition, India has also made a case for far greater vigilance and stricter provisions so as to make off-shore jurisdiction more transparent.

atrocities OUTRAGED PSYCHE

Lacunae remain The sincerity displayed by the Government of India is laudable but an indication of the actual effect of the laws can be gauged from the fact that only a few months ago the US has reminded New Delhi that hawala money was directly linked to terror funding and that there was a need to strengthen anti-money laundering and counter-terrorismfinance legislations. It also recommended that India should work towards becoming a full-fledged member of Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an inter-governmental body for development of policies to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. A US State Department report has proposed that India should make necessary legislative amendments to bring its anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism finance regime in conformity with FATF. "Given the number of terrorist attacks in India, and the fact that in India hawala is directly linked to terrorist financing, India should prioritise cooperation with international initiatives that provide increased transparency in alternative remittance systems," said the report in its section on India related to money laundering. Extortion and cross-border criminal activites that generate funds for outfits too continue unabated despite heavy deployment of security forces in the insurgency affected regions. That even high ranking government officials are forced to pay in some pockets to militants was revealed with the arrest of a joint director named R H Khan last May at Haflong in N.C. Hills, Assam. On 4 October 2009, 12 innocent civilians were killed by Bodo

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

KASHMIR: woes of militarisation

militants in a sleepy hamlet in Sonitpur district of Assam for refusing to pay "taxes". Even the most optimistic projection is that terrorism as a form of asymmetric warfare will continue in the near future. International cooperation amongst States is therefore a precondition to come to grips with the phenomenon. Cooperation is needed both in the bilateral and multilateral spheres, including collective approaches through the United Nations. While some improvement has taken place in regard to bilateral cooperation, the role of organisations such as the United Nations becomes critical as terrorism becomes global. In spite of all these measures, security agencies still may not have perfect answers as to how terrorists move their funds across borders. The problem of terrorism financing has to be seen in the context of a larger problem of organised crime. Therefore it becomes imperative to differentiate the nuances of terrorism financing from other forms of organised crime. For instance, it might be more fruitful to examine how the finance reaches terrorist organisations, where is it generated, how it is used for procurement of weapons, how the transfer of weapons takes place and so on, in order to successfully counter the menace of terror funding.

Rashmi Sarmah is a journalist who contributes to media organisations in India and US. She writes for 'The Times of India' and has anchored programmes on Doordarshan. Her expertise includes women guerrillas, terrorist financing and gender related issues in security environment.

Gyan Prakash Pilania IPS (Retd)

he frequent violations of human rights by security forces be they the Army, the paramilitary or the police tend to undercut the gains of counter-insurgency and counterterrorism operations of the past decade. It is an undeniable fact of counter-terror strategies that success depends on cooperation and mutual respect between the civilian population and the security forces. A study of each case of violation of human rights of the civilian populace will show that it is not always the product of the implementation of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, the repeal of which has been sought in both J&K and the Northeast. It is not axiomatic that its repeal will result in peace and security. Better command and control and leadership of all elements of the security forces and a review of standard operating procedures in cordon-and-search operations allowed under the AFSPA will. Meanwhile, as promised by Home Minister P.Chidambaram, CRPF battalions are being

withdrawn from certain areas. Last summer, the Valley was overwhelmed by several months of unprecedented non - violent public protest triggered by the Amarnath land issue. We are hearing this again this summer, triggered by the rape and murder of two young women from Shopian in south Kashmir. The bodies of Asiya (17) and Neelofar Jan (23) were fished out of a stream in Shopian on May 30. Since then, the valley has been on the boil, with separatists calling a nine-day strike and large processions repeatedly clashing with the police. Police have registered a rape and murder case.The incident provoked widespread anger as the people alleged they were raped and murdered by security forces camping in the area. The protests brought the Valley to a standstill for a week. The rape and murder may well have been committed by gangsters, but the incident has snowballed into a major crisis for the State government. The reason is that people believe that if elements within the security forces have committed the crime, they will get away.

Mismanagement Chief Minister Omar Abdullah found himself in a tight corner. He is drawing flak for the 'mishandling' of the alleged rape and murder of two women in Shopian. Local newspapers reported that even as Kashmir writhed in agony, Omar chose to go to Gulmarg for a holiday, while his police chief Kuldeep Khoda and DGP intellegence Ashok Bhan were seen teeingoff at a golf course overlooking the Dal Lake. It was Omar's flip-flops over the Shopian incident that outraged the Kashmiri psyche. Omar ordered a judicial inquiry into the incident but maintained the women had drowned. The police, which initially refused to file an FIR, did so only after a forensic report confirmed the women were raped and killed. By that time, violent street protests had claimed one life, left 400 people injured and damaged the tourist industry, the mainstay of J&K's economy. Activists argue that the inquiry will be useless unless it is empowered to question the culprits, even if they belong to the armed forces. It was the

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

atrocities OUTRAGED PSHYCHE height of administrative malfunctioning that the FIR wasn't filed on the first day to avoid violence. The police superintendent of Shopian, Javid Iqbal Matoo, who is accused of goofing-up the case, has been transferred to difuse the crisis. This summer's protest is not just about the rape and murder of two women, the violation of human rights, or even the repeal of some draconian law. The real issue, is the extraordinary and intolerable militarization of Kashmir. The young are united and all of them want the Indian troops to go 'home'. They believe the army's presence in civilian areas has created an army-civilian conflict rather than staving off the militancy. The men in uniform are prone to harassing Kashmiri girls. The local police too are involved in crime against women. The laws empowering the security forces to conduct house-to-house searches need to be reviewed. This has also renewed the demand from angry protesters as well as the state government thet the Armed Forces Special Power Act (AFSPA) should be repealed.

Atrocities Kashmiris have stopped expecting justice from the State. It is this lack of faith — and the resentment it provokes — that often transforms protests against incidents like the rape and murder of two women in Shopian, 50 km in south of Srinagar, into full scale agitations for 'azaadi'. In fact, there is frightening consistence about the Kashmiri chant for decades. “Hum kya chahte? Azadi!” Protests have begun for all sorts of reasons but they are a manifestation of the simmering anger always close to the surface. According to Gul Muhammed Wani political science professor at Kashmir University, '' There are a host of custodial or mistaken identity killings by the security forces in the State that have never been punished. The poor justice system affects the credibility of the State. Both the state government and the Indian government face a credibility deficit in the state". Fida Muhammad Hasnain the State's leading historian has opined, "Resentment has become part of the Kashmiri psyche. The Shopian case provided people an opportunity to express their political frustration. We must realize that when Kashmiris talk of 'azaadi', what they are actually seeking is a better system of governance and justice." Despite CM Omar Abdullah's well-

intentioned rule, there have been five dubious incidents, including Shopian, in the five months he's been in power since Dec. All of them involved security men. ● On December 31: Army men shot dead Abdul Rashid Rishi, a Pahalgam resident, when they found him trying to enter an army housing area. ● On February 3: Army men shot dead Fayaz Ahmad Mir, a Kupwara tailor, apparently in 'a crossfire'. ● On March 2: A JCO and two jawans indicted for killing Mohammed Amin Tantray and Javid Ahmad Dar at Bomai. ● On March 18: CRPF men shot dead Ghulam Mohideen Malik, a carpenter. A murder case was also filed against the 22 Rashtriya Rifles for firing which left two people dead in Sopore. ● In the past also Army has been in dock, when in 2000, five soldiers were charged with the killing of five civilians near Chattisinghpura; in 2004, a Major was dismissed from service for raping a 12-yearold in Handwara area; and in 2007, a Territorial Army naik was arrested for raping a minor girl. It may be pertinent to recollect that a few years ago, the infamous "sex scandal" led to huge protests, bringing Srinagar to a grinding halt. That was a tawdry tale of the sexual exploitation of vulnerable women, including the prostitution of minors. It was on a massive scale, with the involvement of politicians, senior bureaucrats, police and paramilitary officers. The scandal exposed the ugly networks of power and oppression, which prop up the structures of control in Kashmir. It also laid bare the vulnerability of women all over the Valley.

naxal net RAMPANT

wake of alleged rape and murder of two women in Shopian which has triggered angry and violent protests in the Valley, a section of the political opposition in the State wants complete withdrawal of Indian troops from J&K which is neither desirable nor feasible at this juncture. Hence, the Union home minister P Chidambaram, had to rush to Srinagar, where on 11 June, 2009, he spoke about the possibility of reducing the number of Indian army and CRPF troops in J&K.. At present there are 74 battalions of CRPF in the State, of which 60 are deployed in Kashmir alone. He said that, "The duties assigned to security forces and the police are well-defined. While the Army and paramilitary forces are tasked to perform security-related duties, the State police should perform all the essential police functions relating to maintenance of law and order."

Chidambaram's promise It appears that Union home minister P Chidambaram's promise in Srinagar that the central security forces would be moved away from habitation areas — cities and towns — at an appropriate time is not an empty one. The central government seems to share the view with the local authorities that regular policing duties by the law and order department, which would be an indication of normalcy. The deployment of the state police will facilitate better policepublic relations.

The writer was DGP Rajasthan and is currently Member of Parliament (Rajya Sabha).

Prakash Singh IPS (Retd)

A conflict is imminent between the State and the Maoists in the “Red Corridor”. It will be a confrontation between two strategies: Of the Maoists who believe that mayhem is a precursor of the new revolution; and of the State that has finally decided that the Maoists can be “drained out of the swamp” clearing the way for development and governance.

In view of above scenario and in the

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November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

naxal net RAMPANT

Poor governance is at the root of the Naxal problem. And the government is entirely to blame for this. The Peoples Liberation Army has to be disarmed and neutralised. However, there is no justification for the malaise of poverty, absence of land reforms, unemployment, corruption and alienation of tribal lands.

he Naxal theatre seems headed for a bloody conflict. Mobilisation of forces is taking place on a large scale for a coordinated police offensive against the Naxals, particularly in areas covered by the so-called "Red Corridor". On the other hand, the Naxals are determined "to further aggravate the situation and create more difficulties for the enemy forces by expanding our guerrilla war to new areas on the one hand and the mass resistance in the existing areas so as to disperse the enemy forces over a sufficiently wider area". The Prime Minister reiterated on September 15, while addressing the Directors General of Police, that left-wing extremism is perhaps "the gravest internal security threat our country faces". Naxal influence has indeed spread over a vast swathe of the country. According to the Home Minister's own statement, various Naxal groups have pockets of influence in 20 States across the country, and over 2000 police station areas in 223 districts of these States are partially or substantially affected by the menace. The ones particularly affected are Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Kerala, Karnataka, Tamilnadu, and Haryana.

Violence mounting Naxal violence has been on a high trajectory. There have been violent incidents in about 400 police station areas of 90 districts in 13 States. There were, in 2008, a total of 1591 incidents of Naxal violence resulting in 721 killings. This year, there have already been (till August 27) 1405 incidents of Naxal violence resulting in the death of 580 persons. Casualties among security forces personnel have been quite high. Altogether, 231 security forces personnel lost their lives in Naxal violence in 2008, while 270 personnel have already lost their lives this year so far. The beheading of Jharkhand Special Branch Inspector, Francis Induwar, the killing of 17 policemen in Gadchiroli, the annihilation of two policemen in West Midnapore, and the recent bandh in certain districts of West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar, all demonstrate that the Naxals are in no mood to hold their fire, let alone accept government's offer for peace talks, and that they are determined to continue their protracted warfare with a view to bringing about what they describe as a "Democratic Revolution" in the country.

Sanitisation The trajectory of Naxal violence has left the government with no option but to undertake comprehensive police operations against them. The strategy would be to first wrest control of areas of Naxal influence and then facilitate expeditious restoration of civil administration there. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) approved in principle the "clear and hold" doctrine. Under this scheme, in the first phase the Naxals would be drained out from their swamps by undertaking well coordinated counterinsurgency operations against them. In the second phase, the civil administration would establish itself in the areas cleared and thereafter undertake development works on a priority.

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November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

naxal net RAMPANT The anti-development posture of the Naxals is quite intriguing. On the one hand, they blame the government for neglecting the remote area and, on the other, they have been regularly attacking the economic targets. On October 13 and 14, 2009, they gave call for a two-day bandh in Jharkhand, Bihar and six districts of West Bengal. During the period, they indulged in wanton killings and inflicted heavy damage on private and government-owned infrastructural assets in 21 incidents. In Jharkhand, they blew up three telecom towers, blew up a school building in Chatra district, blew up portion of a railway track near Daniya in Dhanbad Division, leading to the derailment of 12 wagons of a goods train, and damaged another goods train engine at Dhalmumgarh.

Naxals while some say that it is the beginning of a "civil war" in the country. There is no question of a war being waged. The point to be understood is that no government worth the name can remain a mute spectator to its authority and writ over a territorial area being challenged. It has to take action against the elements challenging its authority. Besides, how can you tolerate a group which is attacking police stations, ambushing patrols, extorting money, blowing up schools, disrupting the construction of roads, and demolishing communication towers. The activities of such a group have to be put down. There is no question of a civil war either. It is not

Cult of mayhem In Bihar, the Bansipur railway station was ransacked and portion of a railway track near the Ghodparan station in Jamui district and a block office building in Munger district were blown up. In West Bengal, the house of a local CPI (M) leader was torched in Purulia district and a member of the Maoist Pratirodh Committee was killed. The government, in a press statement, called upon the civil society to "reflect on the consequences of the path of mindless violence chosen by the CPI (Maoist) and how their actions actually hurt the poor and disadvantaged sections of the people". Some intellectuals argue that the Naxal opposition stems from the fact that they want more "inclusive" development. They accuse the government of usurping land in tribal areas with a view to obliging big business houses, who are encouraged to set up economic zones and given concessions for the purpose. There may be some truth in the argument, but it is difficult to imagine how the development process could be accelerated without acquiring land somewhere. There could be difference of opinion about the selection of site, but places for setting up big plants will have to be earmarked.

Lurid talk of ‘war’ Unfortunately, certain sections, in their keenness to sensationalise the developments, are painting the government response in lurid colours. The proposed action is being described as “war” on the

that two groups of the civilian population are fighting against each other. It is a confrontation between the forces of law and order on the one hand and the People's Guerrilla Liberation Army on the other.

25% still poor This is, however, not to absolve the government of its blame - its inefficiency, incompetence, corruption, and failure to alleviate poverty, provide gainful employment and minimise the alienation of land from the tribals. It is a sad commentary on our planning process that, as admitted by the Planning Commission in the Eleventh Five Year Plan document, "sixty years after independence, over a quarter of our population still remains poor" while progress on land reforms has been "dismal". It is also a matter of shame that, as observed by an Expert Group, the tribals of the country are feeling "totally exhausted, impoverished, and traumatised". Corruption is upsetting all government calculations. A former Chief Minister of Jharkhand and three of his erstwhile cabinet colleagues have been

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

national security CONCEPTUAL LOOPHOLES accused of amassing assets running into several hundred crores and investing them in foreign countries like Thailand and Liberia. The Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, recently admitted that a Plan panel study on PDS found that only 16 paise out of a rupee was reaching the targeted poor. We are saddled with a corrupt bureaucracy and a brutal police force. There is talk of reform and we have valuable reports of the Administrative Reforms Commission, but is anyone bothered? The Supreme Court issued comprehensive directions on police reforms, but the majority of States continue to drag their feet in the matter of implementation. What is worse, the delinquent States think they can get away with their defiance. No wonder, the aam admi does not get a fair deal from either the bureaucracy or the police. A significant section of the population gets alienated in the process and then, in the absence of any other alternative, gravitates to the Naxals, who welcome them with promises of social equality and economic justice. Poor governance is at the root of the Naxal problem. And the government is entirely to blame for this. The well coordinated police operations against the Naxals were overdue. These have to be undertaken and the People's Liberation Army has to be disarmed and neutralised. However, there is no justification for the malaise of poverty, land reforms, unemployment, corruption and alienation of tribal lands still afflicting the country. If these are not taken care of, police action would prove to be a temporary palliative only. The security forces would shatter the armed wing of the Naxals, but the problem could always resurface if the genuine grievances of the people are not addressed.

The writer is distinguished police officer of India. Served as Police Chief of Uttar Pradesh and Assam, he commanded BSF and has an excellent track record for combating terrorism in the most turbulent parts of India. He was awarded the Padam Shri in 1991. An expert on internal security, he has given lectures in premier institutions and seminars across the world and has also written several articles and books on 'Nagaland' and 'The Naxalite Movement'.

NATIONAL SECURITY AND STRATEGY:

getting the basics right Rajiv Mata Gr Capt (Retd)

Over the years when traditional concept of national security has undergone fundamental changes, India is still wriggling with its ageold structure. Is it because of the limitations of coalition governance in the last few decades? Or, is it because of an unfamiliarity of our leaders with the basic concepts of National Security Management? November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

national security CONCEPTUAL LOOPHOLES ince the advent of mankind, humans have been fighting for various reasons - be it territory, natural resources, global domination, expansion of empires or religion. Wars are natural to human beings. On one pretext or the other, they will continue to occur as long as mankind exists. However, over the ages with the industrial revolution, advancements in technology and globalisation, the way security is viewed and wars are fought has undergone fundamental changes. Therefore, there is a need to go back to basics and look at the complex nature of National Security and Strategy. National Strategy applies to nation -States and how they fulfil their aspirations. A clear understanding of the concept of Nation-State is central to a study of the complex nature of National Security and Strategy.

The nation-state A nation can be defined as a body of people marked off by a common heritage, language, culture or historical tradition. This implies a common identity (ethnic and cultural) of a single people that promotes an emotional relationship. However, there

A nation-state defines its national objectives based on national interests. To achieve these objectives, national power has to be harnessed and all means at the nation’s disposal directed towards them. 24

are exceptions to this definition in Nations, where mass migrations from all over the world have taken place, and cultural, ethnic and religious diversity exists. More so, post-globalisation. In India, the religious, ethnic and linguistic diversity is strength and thus a binding process. A State is a political entity defined in terms of territory, population and autonomous government that exercises effective control over the territory and its inhabitants. It also exercises sovereignty in its international dealings and is not obliged to implement decisions to which, it has not explicitly agreed. Say, Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty (NPT), Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), etc. The State therefore, provides basis for political and legal jurisdiction in the form of citizenship, whereas the Nation provides an emotional relationship through which an individual gains a sense of culture and identity.

National power National Power is the capability of a nation to use its tangible and intangible resources in such a way as to affect the behaviour of other nations, whether friendly or hostile to protect its own interests. And, at the same

time, be able to absorb shocks from within and outside. Components of National Power are both tangible and intangible. Tangible Elements generally are - the geography / size, economic capability, military capability and population. Intangible Elements generally are - the socio-political structure of a country, the country's image, nation's purpose and will of the people. National Power is not merely the sum of its capabilities; Strategic Purpose and the Will to pursue Strategy are also the factors that multiply the effect of other components. Conversely, a lack of national will and national strategy can greatly diminish the power of a nation.

National personality This is a term closely related to national power. A Nation's physical environment, its historical experience and its economic and other perceived strengths determine it. The national personality has a direct bearing on the type of power that a nation would desire and eventually possess. National Power in turn shapes and projects National Personality. The two are thus intimately related and often considered two sides of the same coin.

NATIONAL STRATEGY - the concept Security Economic World Order Ideological

Critical Mass Economy Military Purpose Will

NATIONAL INTERESTS Define Ends

NATIONAL POWER

NATIONAL STRATEGY

NATIONAL OBJECTIVES

THE NATION STATE Diagram 1

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

Direct Means

STRATEGIES Political Economic Diplomatic Military

National Power is not merely the sum of its capabilities; Strategic Purpose and the Will to pursue Strategy are also the factors that multiply the effect of other components. Conversely, a lack of National Will and National Strategy can greatly diminish the power of a Nation. National Interests - The four fundamental interests of any nation-state are: ● Security ● Economic ● World order (Diplomatic) ● Ideological National Security - This clearly tops the list of a nation's interests. It is concerned with the protection, preservation and furtherance of the core values of a nation (as enshrined in the Constitution) against both internal and external threats. Identifying the core values is thus an essential part of defining the Security Interests of a nation. National Interests condition the behaviour of a nation-State. Changes in priorities amongst national interests are gradual, visible only over the years. A nation would react strongly to threats to its national interests. National Power comes into play here and its handling is determined by National Strategy. National Strategy can be defined as the art and science of developing and using the political, economic, military and psychological powers of a Nation to secure its national objectives. The role of National Strategy is to transform the total capabilities of a state into instruments of policy. In its simple form, strategy tells planners what they must create capabilities for and once these are in hand, how they must be directed. From national strategy are derived strategies for specific areas, be they Political, Economic, Diplomatic or Military. For linkage, refer diagram 1. A nation-State defines its national objectives based on National Interests. To achieve these objectives, national power has to be harnessed and all means at the nation's disposal directed towards them. National Strategy is the process of linking ends and means for the Nation. There are strategies derived from national strategy to exploit various facets of a nation's strength. In the above diagram, the interesting and significant point to note is the fact that

the order of the four fundamental Interests of a nation-State is Security, then Economic and Diplomatic, followed by Ideological. However, when it comes to protecting the National Interests and the nation-State uses its National Power i.e. linking ends and means, the order of the strategies adopted is nearly reversed. The order of Strategies becomes Political first, then Economic and Diplomatic, followed by Military.

The Indian scenario Management of National Security and employment of National Strategy is thus called National Security Management. Therefore, the question that needs to be asked is: Are most of our leaders and civil servants familiar with the basic concepts of National Security and Strategy and its Management? The original framework for management of the country's security was formulated by Lord Ismay and recommended by Lord Mountbatten. Though this formulation and framework was accepted by the national leadership at the time of independence, the leadership was not fully conversant with the complexities of National Security Management. Despite five wars, internal insurgencies, separatist movements, the end of the cold war, proxy war in Kashmir, cross-border terrorism, the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA), and nuclearisation of the neighbourhood, the original structure of India's National Security System has mostly remained unchanged. After the Kargil war (debacle), a Kargil Review Committee (KRC) was set up under the chairmanship of Mr. K. Subrahmanyam (one of the few doyens of National Security and Strategy in India), who was Director, Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) when India's nuclear policy was formulated. He is a former Defence Secretary and a prolific writer on security issues. Based on the recommendations of the KRC, a Group of Ministers (GoM) was set up to look into

the KRC report. The GoM comprised eminent Cabinet Ministers (Home, Defence, External, Finance) and other eminent special invitees (NSA). On the government's direction, the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) completed a comprehensive Strategic Defence Review (SDR) in 1999. This was the first time that such an exercise was undertaken since independence. The GoM comprised of four task forces to look into the aspects of Intelligence, Internal Security, Border Management and Management of Defence; headed respectively by Mr. GC Saxena, Mr. NN Vohra, Mr. Madhav Godbole and Mr. Arun Singh. The GoM was set up on April 17, 2000 and it held 27 meetings. The report of the GoM (137 pages) was submitted to the Prime Minister in February, 2001. Some of its recommendations have been implemented; some are under the process of implementation consideration. But, at the same time, some very important ones remain unaddressed. This betrays either an inadequate awareness of National Security and Strategy issues or the limitations of coalition governance in the last few decades. According to me, the traditional concept of National Security has undergone fundamental changes. A nation - State must strive to build adequate military capability (based on its threat perception), economic strength, internal cohesion and technological prowess. I strongly believe a robust sense of nationalism and good governance also form an integral part of National Security.

The writer is an Ex IAF Fighter Pilot. He has been an Instructor at the Defence Services Staff College (DSSC), Wellington for four years and a Research Fellow with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) for six years. He presently works as a Defence Analyst and an Aerospace Consultant.

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

insight IN BOOKS

new government,

old wine Resource allocations for ‘National Defence’ must go beyond rituals. An in-depth analysis of 2009-2010 defence budget

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

ndia's defence budget estimate (BE), comprising the expenditure incurred by the Armed Forces, Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Ordnance Factories, during 2009-2010 stands at Rs. 1,41,703 crore, which is a hike of 34 per cent over last year. For the same period, the revenue expenditure estimate stands at Rs. 86,879 crore, which is an increase of Rs. 13,200 crore over last year - thanks to the increased pay and allowances as per the Sixth Pay Commission recommendations. And the capital expenditure stands at Rs. 54,824 crore, a jump of Rs. 15,000 crore from last year's revised estimate (RE). In 2009-2010, the budget allocated for all branches of the armed forces goes like this - Army accounts for Rs. 76,680 crore, Air Force accounts for Rs. 34,432 crore and Navy is at Rs. 20,604 crore. DRDO stands at Rs. 8,481.54 crore, out of which revenue expenditure is at Rs. 4,575 crore while the remaining is allocated for capital expenses. The budget for civil estimate for the Ministry of Defence (MoD) (which includes both revenue and capital budgets related to the personnel engaged) stands at Rs. 24,960 crore, while defence pensions accounts for Rs. 21,790 crore. In sum, India's defence budget for 2009-2010 accounts for more than 15 per cent of the total central government

expenditure and 2.2 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Scope of national defence

Deba R Mohanty

In a broader sense, if a scope of 'national defence' is stretched to 'national security', it should include expenditures on military aspects of the Department of Space, Department of Atomic Energy, and Ministry of Home Affairs. Budgets for Atomic Energy stand at Rs. 7,773 crore (Rs. 4,083.9 crore for revenue and Rs. 3,689.1 crore for capital); for Space at Rs. 4,959 crore (Rs. 2,907.2 crore for revenue and Rs. 2,051.2 crore for capital); for Home Affairs at Rs. 37,299.78 crore (Rs. 29,501.2 crore for revenue and Rs. 7,798.7 crore for capital) Other non-plan capital outlays that have direct impacts on national security account for around Rs. 15,000 crore. If all these categories are added to national defence, resource allocations for national security will roughly account for around 25 per cent of total central government expenditure and above 3 per cent of GDP. Reasons to justify increase in India's defence budget are following: ● Successive political, military and bureaucratic leaderships have

It is interesting to note, except 200304, successive years for the past decade have witnessed huge amount of funding for capital expenses sometimes up to 30 per cent - lying unspent.

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

insight IN BOOKS emphasised that the outlays for military will not be affected even though the country is witnessing some degree of negative impacts of global economic meltdown. ● Time and again, same leaderships hinted 'money is not a problem for ensuring national security'. This implies, the outlays for military (primarily in the capital acquisitions category) are likely to increase at a fast pace, at least till central objectives of India's long-term military modernisation programme underway since 2002 are probably met by the year 2022. ● As the Finance Minister, Pranab

Mukherjee stated in the Parliament during the interim budget presentation in February 2009 that terrorist incidents like the recent one in Mumbai have added new dimensions to security conditions, which should be met with adequate financial and material assistance for national security purposes. In fact, perceived and real security threat conditions propel countries worldwide to prepare adequately for their defence. India is no exception.

Need for transparency While resource allocations in all major sectors of the Indian economy - be it railways, agriculture, infrastructure, higher education or employment - generate debate at least in the Parliament and the media, the same is not the case with defence. National defence receives least attention, even when it consumes a considerable portion of national resources. It is a pity that resources allocated to national defence seldom gets a critique and is passed year after year in the Parliament. This is where the role of 'national security bureaucracy' needs to be examined. As matters related to national security are treated in exclusive terms in India, the institutions involved in managing national security affairs - political executives, armed forces, civil bureaucracy, defence scientific community - tend to deliberate and fashion policy matters in closed environments. This leads to two related problems - a tendency to keep everything secret; and nurturing the institutional mechanisms that become vertically rigid. Such rigidity not only discourages essential horizontal interaction among all the institutions at all levels but also reforms within. This further increases the level of interest group politics preventing any attempt towards reforming military or large security organizations. Difficulties in implementing recommendations of major committees like

the Group of Ministers (GoM), A.V. Singh, Vijay Kelkar, Probir Sengupta and more recently, Rama Rao committees on matters related to national defence explain the poor state of affairs in India. Much of these recommendations are largely resisted from within, which points to inter as well as intra departmental politics, and at times from industrial groups from outside. It is thus important to debate major aspects of national security, including justifications for resource allocations for national defence among larger stakeholders of the country. This year's national defence budget as well as trends in the immediate past suggest the following: ● First, non-transparency still prevails in the budgetary methods. While specific allocations for broader categories are published, minute details are still not available leading to further confusion in exact assessments. For example, armed forces officers often crib about very limited options for new weapons' acquisitions as bulk of the capital budget is devoted towards committed liabilities. This may not be true in current times where capital budget has already witnessed a 450 per cent jump (it was Rs. 12,000 crore in 2003 as against Rs. 54,000 crore today), with enough scope for allocations for new weapons. The problem here is, details of data are not available in public domain unlike the west, where the data is normally available. ● Second, trends suggest that the revenue expenditure, which was dominating at 80 per cent in the budget in 1980s, had come down to less than 60 per cent in last few years. But this year, it stands at 62 per cent (thanks to a steep increase in pay and

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

allowances for soldiers). In India's case, high level of revenue expenditure is self explanatory. India's military is still manpower intensive. Any effort towards rightsizing the military has faced fierce resistance from the armed forces. An attempt was made during the late 1990s by General V.P. Malik to reduce the number by 50,000 but subsequent actions have been shelved for long. While a desirable 55 per cent or less revenue expenditure is still being talked about, but matching effort in de-mobilization or rightsizing is nowhere in the picture. ● Third, while manpower planning is essential, so is the equipment planning. One may argue, these are essentials keeping in view the requirements of the armed forces. This is fine. But one needs to be a little careful about what India needs, ought to buy and from where. In absence of a comprehensive assessment of security threats and emerging challenges, which should be embedded in relevant security institutions and subsequently translated into a set of needs, it appears there is a disconnect between a desirable equipment road map and a process to sustain the acquisition for the relevant period. This is largely a systemic problem which not only needs attention of the armed forces but also of the civil MoD as well as Ministry of Finance. A closer look also reveals the growing gap in military acquisition trends between inadequate domestic military production as well as military technology vis-à-vis direct import - which is not only increasing but accounting for more than 70 per cent of the capital budget devoted to meet imports from abroad. This is a serious problem, which despite best efforts from the government in recent times has not

been translated into any real improvement in self-reliance in defence. ● Fourth, there is nothing in the capital expenditure that would attract the Indian private sector to complement the efforts of the state-owned enterprises in meeting military requirements. This may raise some brows. But then, isn't it a good idea to devote some resources for military Research & Development (R&D) to be used by the Indian private sector? In fact, a defence technology capital fund was proposed to help the Indian private sector to finance defence projects some time back. This could have been a noble beginning. But it has not seen the light of the day. We have to understand in no uncertain terms that the military R&D demands are capital and time consuming, which need State support. The Defence Minister, A K Antony's oft-repeated assertion that the private industry would get a license free environment, a level playing field and critical government support, needs to be translated into concrete policy measures. But then, is Indian bureaucracy - civil and military ready to shed its establishmentarian mindset of mistrust towards the private sector? It is fairly well -known by now that unless the Indian private sector pitches in, India's long cherished objective of achieving 'self-reliance in defence' is not going to be fulfilled. ● Fifth, in this year's defence budget, capital resources devoted to military R&D is less than Rs. 4,000 crore. This is a pity but it also entails worrisome consequences. Comparing this paltry figure to those of the industrialized countries is self-explanatory. The US currently spends around US $80 billion to fund its military R&D activities. We must remember, the US military expenditure did not suffer even during the worst times of global military efforts following the end of the Cold War till the late 1990s. This shows the importance attached to military R&D by the US and demonstrated the growing technology gap between the US and the rest of the world. China has of late increased its military R&D budget substantially, while countries like South Korea, Japan and even UAE have increased their budgets manifold. There is a lesson to be learnt from the US experience for India: 'devote reasonable amount of resources in the R&D consistently, if you want to see

defence industry attain some degree of selfreliance'. Indian establishments as well as some members of the strategic community tend to criticize DRDO - India's leading military science and technology innovator for not being able to meet requirements of the armed forces. The same goes for stateowned military production agencies, which have failed to produce enough for the country. There are merits in such arguments. However, the larger picture demands more resources to be devoted to military R&D for both public and private sectors. But before that, the country needs to evolve a long-term technology road map and address every issue for its effective

implementation. One can hope, the Rama Rao Committee, which has addressed many of these problems and suggested worth considering reforms, should be seriously implemented by the government. ● And last but not the least, defence budget must address the issue of 'unspent syndrome'. This year, the MoD has returned Rs. 7,000 crore to the government as it could not spend for military acquisitions. It is interesting to note, except 2003-04, successive years for the past decade have witnessed huge amount of funding for capital expenses - sometimes up to 30 per cent - lying unspent. While unspent syndrome primarily occurs due to the non-execution of payments for both committed liabilities as well as cancellation of capital military acquisition plans, more importantly it is an issue of bureaucratic

complexities involved in the planning as well as procurement processes. This, in turn, raises questions about the effectiveness of defence planning and procurement processes. At a time when India has undertaken efforts towards a comprehensive long-term military modernization programme, it is important to craft a well-defined procurement policy, absence of which can produce disastrous results. Despite several rounds of reviews, India's defence procurement procedure (not to be confused with policy) has not been able to find solutions to key challenges like time management, indigenisation, procedural complexities and transparency. Added to the problem is the new defence offsets policy, which needs further conceptual refinement in order to be effective. National security issues are too important to be left to the domain of government establishment and political elite alone. Two major pillars of democracy - the Parliament as well as the media must deliberate all intricate aspects of this subject. Another important player - academia - has unfortunately become a fringe player in security matters. One may not agree with the West and other mature democracies but one cannot help learning from their interactive institutional mechanisms, in which academia plays a vibrant and direct role. Such a model needs to be contemplated for Indian security system in order to make it more dynamic. The Defence Minister's biggest challenge is to bring out a national defence policy document, absence of which has actually perpetuated all the above problems in some way or the other. It is understandable that defence being treated as a closed sector for decades, hence perpetuation of a closed mindset. It is thus no surprise, reforms process would be slow and painful. The Defence Minister's biggest achievement would depend on his abilities to take tough decisions on all such issues while ensuring that the military modernisation does not suffer in the process.

The writer is Senior Fellow in Security Studies at the Observer Research Foundation and currently holds the position of Vice President (PP), the Society for Study in Peace and Conflict (SSPC), New Delhi.

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

cover story SINO-INDIAN TANGO

SINO-INDIAN RELATIONS today

Cmde Uday Bhaskar (Retd)

There was little evidence of Panchsheel – that bedrock of coexistence that China and India had pledged to base the foundations of their emergence into the modern era – in this October, the 47th anniversary of the Chinese invasion of 1962. Current events appeared to replicate the pattern of allegations and threats that led up to the Chinese teaching India a “lesson” and it seemed that Beijing was using the same tactics to repeat an attack in the Himalayas. But India of 2009 is not India of 1962. Therefore, China and India should seek to mould the same kind of “equipoise” that exists between China and the US. he much-heralded Asian resurgence of the early 21st century predicated upon the ‘peaceful rise’ of communist China and the concomitant emergence of democratic India on the global scene hit a rough patch in the fall of 2009. Were the two Asian giants doomed to repeat a Sisyphean past? The dominant media perception about the bilateral relations between the elephant and the dragon hit an all-time low in October and the trigger was the sharp public rebuke by the Chinese Foreign Ministry in mid-October about the visit of PM Manmohan Singh to Arunachal Pradesh on October 3rd. As it happens the Indian PM had visited the State in the past and this time, the finger-wagging – as it were – occurred on the day that the people of Arunachal went to the polls.

Sombre anniversary Mid-October is replete with memories of the humiliation heaped upon India on October 20, 1962 when the PLA troops marched into NEFA – now Arunachal –

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

and then withdrew. The territorial cum border dispute which has a tangled colonial past that involves British India, Tibet and China remained bitterly contested and hugely intractable. To compound matters, Pakistan illegally ceded some territory of the composite J&K State to China in 1963 – a year after the 1962 humiliation – and this has only aggravated what was a purely bilateral issue. Subsequently Sino-Indian relations went into deep-freeze till the rapprochement of 1988 initiated by PM Rajiv Gandhi and enabled by Chinese supremo Deng Xiaoping. Over the years – after the two sides gradually improved the political relationship, India and China agreed to maintain peace and tranquility on the line of actual control – the LAC – with a tacit understanding that the border did not exist and there were only actual positions occupied on the ground by both sides. In 2005 there was another agreement – this time documented – that among other elements agreed to in the final resolution – inhabited areas would not be disturbed. Mutual understanding and mutual

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

cover story SINO-INDIAN TANGO

The broad Indian interpretation was that having recognized Tibet as an autonomous region of China, Delhi had assuaged Beijing’s deepest anxieties — it was now for China to do the same in respect of Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.

accommodation with no recourse to force was the operative principle. The broad Indian interpretation was that having recognized Tibet as an autonomous region of China, Delhi had assuaged Beijing’s deepest anxieties – and it was now for China to do the same in respect of Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. India as the status quo party is aware of the territorial consolidation and massive infrastructure effort carried out by China in Tibet and adjoining areas and despite the parliament resolution about getting every inch of lost territory back has not taken any step – political or otherwise to disturb the current reality on the ground.

Hardening attitude However over the last year, there has been a discernible hardening of the Chinese position over the unresolved border issue and this erupted in October – in both the Indian and Chinese media. After Beijing denounced the PM’s visit to Arunachal – in an uncharacteristic rebuff – Delhi advised China in public to cease its development activities in POK – which is also ‘disputed’.

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

Even as the invective grew, recall was made of the number of incursions and violations by China and the timid Indian response. Chinese strictures apropos the Dalai Lama were highlighted and the ‘servile’ manner in which Delhi sought to appease Beijing during the relay of the 2008 Olympic torch recalled. The government was castigated for being ‘weak’ and many political parties and some sections of the Indian media wanted ‘action’ – not words. Against this turbulence, it was appropriate that the Indian PM met his Chinese counterpart at the ASEAN Summit in Thailand on October 25 and this meeting had the salutary effect of calming the stormy waters. Noting that both nations had a set of unresolved issues including the complex border dispute, PM Singh added that there were agreed government-togovernment channels for exchanging views and “therefore one does not have to go to the media to accentuate or exaggerate the amount of differences that prevail.” The Indian media in recent months – the audio-visual medium in particular – has become a central player that stokes deep-seated national anxieties about the

‘other’ and China in particular. While this is an inevitable part of the democratic ethos and the on-going technological information revolution leavened by inexorable market forces, the current reality is that the mass-media no longer just reports the news – but now serves to mediate and frame the agenda for many national policies by bringing to bear an incessant focus and directivity that often generates more heat and dust than objective light and reason. Over the last few weeks there have been a number of reports in the Indian media about violations and incursions by China along the long and unresolved Sino-Indian border. The most troubling was the report in a major national daily on Sep 15 which splashed a page one story that referred to the PLA having opened fire against the troops of the Indo-Tibetan Border Police. However this report was immediately and unambiguously denied both by the Indian government and the authorities in Beijing.

2009-1962 disconnect In the first instance there must be

acknowledgement about what China is and is not as far as India is concerned – before seeking answers about how best to respond. Yes, India went through the humiliating experience of 1962 – when a completely startled India was about to abandon Assam – but 2009 is not 1962. It is very unlikely that the PLA will embark upon a similar kind of ‘teach India a lesson’ military initiative; and in the unlikely event that it does – the Indian military capacity and the strategic profile that India has acquired after May 1998 will allow India to consider retaliatory options it did not have in 1962. Furthermore, China in 2009 has far greater dependencies and vulnerabilities to its overall national interests than what it did in 1962. This itself induces a greater degree of restraint and reticence towards India as far as Beijing is concerned. So to that extent, this constant anxiety and persecution complex that India will have to deal with a replay of 1962 is unwarranted. However there is no doubt that China does pose a very complex strategic challenge to India and this is existential by nature. Both Asian giants are civilizational States with an ancient history but have a

After Beijing denounced the PM’s visit to Arunachal – in an uncharacteristic rebuff – Delhi advised China in public to cease its development activities in POK – which is also ‘disputed’.

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cover story SINO-INDIAN TANGO Having adopted two very different political systems, the linkage between territoriality and national sovereignty was deeply disturbed in the 1962 war. Though 47 years have elapsed, the border-cumterritorial dispute remains unresolved – and consequently there is no agreed border. troubled colonial past of recent vintage. Having adopted two very different political systems, the linkage between territoriality and national sovereignty was deeply disturbed in the 1962 war. Though 47 years have elapsed, the border-cum-territorial dispute remains unresolved – and consequently there is no agreed border. Both sides have their own perception about where their territorial claims lie. With the end of the Cold War, the national leadership in both countries have exuded great determination to improve their relative standing in the global order and have succeeded. Today in the early 21st century, China and India are two emerging powers and hence there is a strategic kinetic animated by the under-current of globalization at work in Asia and by extension at the international level. The challenge for India is to ensure that China remains a challenger and a competitor in certain areas – as also a potential interlocutor for co-operation in others. While the border remains contested, both

nations now have a reasonably robust trade relationship – it will soon touch US $ 60 bn by 2010 – and will compete for global markets and resources. Yet they have a common position in areas such as global warming and protecting the interests of developing nations.

Managing geostrategy Thus contestation, competition and cooperation will have to be managed in such a manner that at no stage does it lead to confrontation – even inadvertently. That is the context in which the current turbulence over incursions and air-space violations needs to be placed in. There is considerable evidence to suggest that in recent years China has embarked upon many initiatives and policies that have not been favourable to India – and here the Chinese support to Pakistan’s WMD capability is case in point. However even in relation to Pakistan, in some instances Beijing has chosen to be neutral – and here the 1999 Kargil War is

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

illustrative. Hence the grey texture in the bilateral relations should be noted. The top leadership in Beijing, it would appear, is adopting a nuanced posture towards India and it is not all black and white and totally anti-Indian. China is aware that its ‘peaceful rise’ claim can be tainted if it cannot have an amicable relationship with its largest neighbour. Yet at a deeper strategic level, as noted earlier – a degree of abiding anti-Indian orientation is discernible in the policies of Beijing. This has been further exacerbated in the period when the India US civilian nuclear cooperation agreement was being progressed. Despite its public statements that it would not oppose India, at the last stage – in the NSG deliberations in September 2008 – Beijing took an anti-India stance. Surely this cannot be the attitude of a confident nation that seeks to be accepted as a major Asian power and a ‘friend’ of India. This kind of anti-Indian position was noticed again in the Asian Development Bank vote in early 2009. Recent developments suggest that Japan and

The related matter is that of Tibet and the Dalai Lama and here again, Delhi and Beijing have adopted a complex and opaque politico-diplomatic signalling procedure.

Australia – citing procedural rectitude – have supported the Chinese position in the ADB. The anxiety about a closer India-US strategic partnership is very deep in Beijing – though paradoxically during the latter half of the Cold War, the Beijing leadership had no reservations in forging a strategic tie-up with Washington DC against Moscow! Thus the enduring challenge for India is to recognize the many contradictions and seeming inconsistencies in the Chinese position vis-à-vis India and keep the tactical and the transient at that level. It does appear that the PLA is pushing the envelope with India on the border issue and this may be a way of reminding India that the matter cannot be left as an extended status quo – which India can live with.

Tibet card The related matter is that of Tibet and the Dalai Lama and here again, Delhi and

Beijing have adopted a complex and opaque politico-diplomatic signalling procedure. China knows that India does indeed have a Tibet card - but the Beijing objective will be to ensure that Delhi is not compelled to use it. The most viable manner for India to deal with the existential reality of the ‘rise’ of China is to increase the stakes for Beijing in the bilateral relationship. For instance, the trade and economic dependency could move from US $ 60 billion to say $ 100 bn in about three years – and to enhance the high-value trade items in the Indian export basket in this spectrum. Yet another area that holds tangible promise is in the manner that Chinese companies are now investing in India and the long-term benefits that accrue to the dragon. These include Sinosteel, Huawei, ZTE, Lenovo, Baosteel, Dong Fang Electric Corporation, Sany Heavy Industry and many others. A recent survey revealed that out of 400 patents that Huawei had filed worldwide in 2008, over 200 came

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cover story SINO-INDIAN TANGO capabilities like cruise missile and ASAT that are US specific. In contrast India is unable to ensure the planned modernization of its military and the inability to acquire new artillery guns or fighter aircraft in a swift manner is symptomatic of India’s reactive culture.

No military equivalence However it must be reiterated that India does not need to pursue any kind of military equivalence with China – just as it is very unlikely that the dragon will be able to arrive at any degree of numerical equivalence with the American eagle. If one were to make a reasonably probable projection of the more likely profile of the world in the next 30 years – any longer time-frame would be untenable and overambitious – there is consensus that the USA, China and India would be the top three economies of the world. Yet their military capabilities would be far more asymmetrical than their economic-trade linkages. The strategic challenge for each of them individually and bilaterally would be to arrive at consensual ‘mutuality’ wherein the convergences and divergences are appropriately managed. This would imply for instance, that while China need not necessarily match the USA by way of its WMD arsenal – nuclear weapons and missiles – it can live with a ratio wherein it is the subaltern that has arrived at the appropriate degree of ‘equipoise’. The US as the military hegemon in this from their R&D center in Bangalore. And in similar vein, Huawei and ZTE earned revenues of US$ 1.3 billion and US$ 750 million respectively from their Indian operations in 2008. However while trade dependency is desirable, it does not axiomatically lead to stable relations between large nations – as the US-China dyad suggests. The old tenet that power recognizes and respects power is as valid in the 21st century and India must enhance its trans-border military capacity in a gradual but determined manner. The military asymmetry between the dragon and the elephant is in the former’s favour. In 2008 the official Chinese defence outlay was US$ 70 bn and most experts aver that the actual figure would cross US$ 100 bn due to the lack of transparency in the Chinese budget figures. But even if the official figure is accepted – this is more than twice India’s US$ 30 bn. China has enhanced its trans-border military capability in a focused manner with niche

dyad would need to ensure that China is not encouraged or provoked to act in a manner that would threaten the status quo – and here Taiwan should not become a caususbelli. The extrapolation for India is that while China is more capable entity in the Sino-Indian dyad – Delhi should seek to find that same equipoise by accepting the asymmetry and Beijing being able to assure the elephant that within an agreed framework of sovereignty and mutual dependency, Indian core security interests and sensitivities will not be compromised. Politico-military tension over perceived differences leading to war as happened in 1962 is the historical experience that must not be repeated while the right lessons must be drawn from it by rigorous study and analysis of the past. Here both India and China are guilty of being trapped in a fiercely nationalist narrative that is the cross of the post-colonial State when dealing with the linkage between territoriality, security and sovereignty.

Churchill’s advice A brief recall of Sir Winston Churchill’s exhortation to his own country will not be misplaced in this context. In his book ‘My Early Life’– Churchill cautions: “Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter.” And hence the famous Sir Winston aphorism – that between

adversarial nations, jaw-jaw is much more desirable than war-war. But for diplomacy to be effective, it must be backed by appropriate and credible military capacity and here the Indian trackrecord is very inadequate. Even in those niches that India is more favourably placed than China – for example the naval and maritime domain – Delhi has been mired in complacence and institutional stasis. A review of the last decade will indicate that from the Vajpayee years to UPA II, it appears that there is no consistent political resolve to deal with China in an effective and consistent manner. A sustained debate in parliament on this important bilateral relationship and evolving a political consensus would be a very important signal. But the great Indian collective appears to be distracted by high-visibility, low-import issues which are then politically polarized. National security compulsions must be debated in an objective and apolitical manner. It is this mind-set that needs to be redressed lest we remain burdened with the Sisyphean syndrome of constantly pushing the boulder uphill but never attaining the objective.

Commodore (Retd) C Uday Bhaskar is Director, National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi. He headed the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) and was member-secretary, Government of India’s Task Force on ‘Global Strategic Developments’.

It is very unlikely that the PLA will embark upon a similar kind of ‘teach India a lesson’ military initiative; and in the unlikely event that it does - the Indian military capacity and the strategic profile that India has acquired after May 1998 will allow India to consider retaliatory options it did not have in 1962.

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

defence visions FUTURE IN FOCUS

RMA or the Revolution in Military Affairs has meant many things to many nations in the evolution of warfare down the ages from the sharpening of a piece of flint to the blitzkrieg tactics of the German high command to the multiple independentlytargetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) of the current day and age. An attempt to clear the fog off a nebulous RMAâ&#x20AC;Ś

Air Marshal S G Inamdar (Retd)

unravelling RMA 38

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

defence visions FUTURE IN FOCUS

t is noticed that the general expression 'revolutions in military affairs' has been loosely used by many writers and speakers of late to describe all such goods and practices the introduction of which by itself impacts war decisively or significantly. These goods include radically new military hardware items like 'stirrups', 'body armour', 'gun powder', 'petard', 'catapult', 'telescope', 'steam traction', 'IC engine', 'submersible', 'chemical weapons', 'aircraft', 'tank', 'radar', 'jet engine', 'atom bomb', 'smart weapons' etc, that got invented in that order. The practices include radically new military strategies, tactics, plans, thinking etc., like the Mahabharatan 'Chakra Vyuha', guerilla war, Western drill manoeuvres; Babar's 'Turkiana' manoeuvre; 'outflanking move'; 'encirclement'; 'pincer move'; 'offensive retreat'; 'defensive advance'; 'the Corps concept', so on and so forth. Both are spoken of by these writers and speakers as having 'revolutionised' warfare at specific points of time in military history. And they are right, too! They have used this general expression to imply, in short, a fundamental transformation in military affairs that stemmed from profound changes that occurred either in the technology used, doctrine followed or in the organisation of the armies and navies of the time. That is as accurate and profound an observation as there can be when

speaking about a military revolution, or, as a matter of fact, any revolution.

Surprise is the essence The common refrain and salient point of each of these so called 'revolutions' is that they did fundamentally affect, and often replace, existing war-fighting practices at each point in recorded history, radically altering outcomes of past battles. The opponent had no answer to the element of surprise and degree of devastation that each of these changes brought with it. In the 20th century, these changes were represented by three major military developments: The first included mechanised warfare, submarine warfare and air warfare; the second nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and electronic warfare; and the third included cybernetics and information technology. It is this third military development which is at the heart of 'RMA' in the sense this word is formally understood today. The essence of the so-called earlier 'revolutions' has seldom been the invention of new technology, per se. It is the discovery of innovative ways to organise, operate and employ a new technology which yield measurable gains in time, efficacy and costs. This development is brought about when a nation's technomilitary establishment seizes the

opportunity to bring in a change to achieve decisive military results in fundamentally new ways. The 'blitzkrieg' concept of the Third Reich, making coordinated and concentrated use of air power, tracked vehicles and massed artillery in WW-2, is a brilliant case in point. While all these developments in the past indeed did….many such developments at present do and many in the future will….revolutionise warfare, terming them as 'RMA' would be somewhat misplaced in the strictest technical sense. Any and every new development in the military sphere, past or present, no matter how revolutionary in nature, application and impact, cannot be termed as 'RMA'.

Genesis of 'RMA' The acronym 'RMA' in today's context has an altogether different and very specific technical connotation to the point that it may, grammatically, be treated as a proper noun. RMA, as it is currently understood, is distinct from the many earlier revolutionary military developments mentioned above. It has its origins in an earlier term, Military Technology Revolution (MTR) coined by Soviet military thinkers in the late 60's. They began by identifying two periods of fundamental military change in the 20th century: the first driven by aircraft, motor

The essence of the so-called earlier ‘revolutions’ has seldom been the invention of new technology, per se. It is the discovery of innovative ways to organise, operate and employ a new technology which yield measurable gains in time, efficacy and costs. 40

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

'RMA' today has come to represent, expressly and only, such changes in which information age technology is combined with appropriate doctrine and training to allow a small but very advanced military to protect national interests with unprecedented efficiency.

vehicles and chemical warfare and the second driven by nuclear weapons, guided missiles and computers. They predicted that the next MTR would involve microelectronics, sensors, precision guidance, automated control and directed energy. They defined the holistic concept of RMA as, and I quote, "a discontinuous increase in military capability and effectiveness arising from simultaneous and mutually supportive change in technology, systems, operational methods and military organizations." . 'RMA' today has come to represent, expressly and only, such changes in which information age technology is combined with appropriate doctrine and training to allow a small but very advanced military to protect national interests with unprecedented efficiency. To accomplish this RMA, rather than get bogged down in its theoretical verbiage, it is essential to continuously debate, redefine and fine-tune strategy implications, core assumptions and normative choices. This alone will ensure a constantly clear understanding of and focus on the subject.

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

defence visions FUTURE IN FOCUS A post ipso facto dawning! Historically, most such revolutions were understood only after they had taken place, by taking one of the three available approaches. The first approach saw revolutionary technology itself as the main driver of change. The second saw it as revolutionary adaptation of an existing technology. The third saw it as the revolutionary impact of geo-political and technological changes on the outcome of military conflicts. However, in the present context, RMA has to be understood prospectively, looking at changes that will be brought on by the following four features of present and future warfare: (a) Extreme precision and long distance stand-off strikes (b) Dramatically improved Command, Control and Intelligence processes (c) Information warfare, and (d) Non-lethal weaponry Each of these four features is fairly selfexplanatory at least for a prima facie understanding by any student of military affairs. If one also has technical working knowledge of their considerable potential and is already dealing / familiar with their present capability, it will be relatively easy to grasp their essentials. For their fuller understanding, however, these can and must be made the subject of deep, independent further study.

RMA: Aim and strategy The aim of pursuing the RMA would be two-fold: One, to enable the military to strike anywhere with weight, volume, precision and relative safety, and two, to electronically confuse the enemy into submission with little of warfare's normal collateral destruction. Information age technology, if intelligently combined with appropriate doctrine and training, would allow small but advanced armed forces to operate with unprecedented efficiency. The recent Gulf wars and the US invasion of Iraq began to suggest that a historical RMA was underway in USA which might offer solutions to many of the earlier strategic conundrums and dilemmas faced by the US armed forces; other modern armed forces would be similarly placed, albeit with understandable differences of degree. What is 'Strategy'? It is many things at once but, in the main, it is about preferences, about value judgments, about not just the type of world that is attainable but also the type that is preferable. Pursuit of RMA has to be wedded and welded to just such a reference frame in order to be able to militarily deliver more for less, faster, more precisely, more cleanly, in any weather, anywhere, by day or night. Bigger and cleaner bangs for the buck, as it were, may be an appropriate summation. Military pre-eminence without an appropriate strategy to shape and utilize is

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

both dangerous and fleeting. Crafting of such a strategy for the RMA is more difficult than simply developing and using technology. Here I would like to quote the Toffler husband-wife duo that said: "A military revolution in the fullest sense occurs only when a new civilization arises to challenge the old. When an entire society transforms itself, forcing its armed forces to change at every level simultaneously - from technology and culture to organisation, strategy, tactics, training, doctrine, and logistics. When this happens, relationships of the military with the economy and society get transformed and the concept of military balance of power stands to be shattered."

Fundamental alteration It is said that in the strict and classical sense, there have been only two revolutions to date: The rise of organised, agricultural society on the one hand and the industrial revolution, on the other. More generally speaking, a military revolution occurs, when the application of new technologies to military systems combines with innovative operational concepts and organisational adaptation, in a way that fundamentally alters character and conduct of war. It does so by producing a dramatic increase in the combat potential and military effectiveness of armed forces. The current RMA will probably have at

RMA pursuit options

least two stages. The present stage is based on stand-off platforms, stealth, precision, information dominance, improved communications, computers, GPS, digitization, smart weapons and jointness. The second stage, somewhat in the future, may be based on robotics, non-lethality, psycho-technology, cyber-defence, nanotechnology, brilliant weapon systems, hyper-flexible organisations and fire-andforget warfare. Going by this definition, the world seems to be only at the beginning of the current RMA. Once again, each of these terms, while self-explanatory to a point to most general readers, would greatly facilitate better understanding by a deeper examination by technology buffs, serious students of military science and researchers, if only to be au fait with all the nuances and technical details. Such a study is strongly recommended.

The imponderables Given the large futuristic content of the RMA, including both hardware and doctrine, with the attendant timeframe and expenditure factors, a case can be made out that costs and risks of its vigorous pursuit could end up outweighing the benefits projected today. It can also be seriously doubted whether the current RMA will generate the expected increase in combat effectiveness for sure, since one may not always know for certain the exact kind of opponent(s) that one may be pitted against in a future conflict. Will the RMA dividend deliver the promised ROI (Return On Investment)? Valid fears, which cannot possibly be allayed comprehensively, conclusively or empirically, using data, know-what, know-why and know-how available today. It can at best be only an intelligent, informed guess. However, arguing for such a pursuit of RMA, one can state the following reasons to justify medium and long range investments: (a) It will bring a significant increase in combat effectiveness against one's immediate and medium distance opponents. (b) A capability built around precision standoff weapons and disruptive information warfare, would be more politically usable than the traditional force projection capability. (c) It can augment the existing deterrence. (d) We may simply stall into a strategic tailspin, if not crash, if we miss the RMA bus, in the manner we managed to miss the Agricultural and Industrial

More generally speaking, a military revolution occurs when the application of new technologies to military systems combines with innovative operational concepts and organisational adaptation in a way that fundamentally alters character and conduct of war. Revolutions of the 17th and 18th centuries, respectively. If we board it, we will be right; if we do not, we will be left! Pursuit of RMA would result in strategy, rather than technological capability, guiding force development. The key question that we would then need to answer is, 'what exactly do we want the future military to be able to do?' The answer would depend entirely on the national strategic objectives, prognosticable developments in the neighbourhood (and beyond) and the likely future opponent(s).

If India chooses to pursue the RMA objective, there would be three broad options: (a) Push forward vigorously on precision and stand-off weapons development / acquisition and disruptive information warfare. We already have or will soon have the necessary technology and wherewithal. (b) Throttle back on the RMA and consolidate existing advantages. (c) Push the Revolution in a different direction altogether. While choosing the first of these options, it would be of crucial importance to first arrive at (and enunciate) a precise strategy norm for the country. The national political leadership will need to be very clear about (and decide) not only what it can do with a vastly more effective military, but also what it should do with it. It is quite meaningless to merely know what you are capable of doing unless you also have a clear vision of what you ought to do with that capability. Only then will accomplishing RMA objectives translate to measurable progress instead of only to visible change. The astronomical investments that would be called for and the colossal work that would need to go into it leave little room to dither, equivocate, obfuscate or procrastinate on this issue. India may simply have to do what behoves a nation surging forward to Regional / International Super Power status, to take our rightful place ordained by our geo-political preeminence and population size.

The writer was Fighter Pilot, retired from IAF as Air Marshal in 2003. He has flown over 4700 hours on 28 different types of aircraft and commanded No 7 Squadron (The 'Battleaxes').

Disclaimer: It pertains to the original authorship or otherwise of this dissertation. All of the italicized text and some of the itemized formulations have appeared earlier in some form or the other in various books and journals on military affairs and in the official, public-domain publications of some air forces, including the IAF. These have been excerpted here verbatim to either buttress an argument or to amplify a point. To that extent, this article is more of an anthology. Photo courtesy: DRDO-HQS

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

women in uniform FACE TO FACE

breaking the glass ceiling: Lt. General Puneeta Arora For Indian Armed Forces where there are not many women officers, Lt. General Puneeta Arora is an inspiring brand ambassador. In no-holdsbarred conversation with Shilpi Aggarwal, India's first woman Lieutenant General and first woman Vice Admiral shares her experiences that will surely enkindle interest in young girls and parents You are the first woman in the Army as well as in the Navy to reach three-star position. How does it feel like storming the male bastions? What were your motivations behind breaking into male dominated space back then? Yes, even if we take all the three wings combined, I am again the first woman in India to reach these higher ranks. Mrs. Padmavathy Bandopadhyay's appointment as Air Marshal came a month later. Undoubtedly, it's a wonderful feeling! There was no motivation as such to break into male space and do something different. I never thought about the ranks. But yes, throughout it was very challenging. It's because being a woman wherever you go, right from day one, there are questions like this following you: Will she be able to do the job? Will she be able to handle the responsibilities? These questions were always there and are still there for a woman who treads into male dominated arena. But at the same time, these question marks also challenge you and motivate you to do your job to the best of your abilities. Back then, being a woman how tough it was for you to strike a balance between your job and home? How your family reacted to your postings? In fact, there was never a reaction from them. I always got support from them. In

The best thing is that Armed Forces transform an individual into a good human being and a responsible citizen. Here, there is nothing me, itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s always us.

the beginning, there were my parents, then my in-laws, my husband, my children. They all supported me well. If I had to report for a duty, I did not have to worry about my children. My family was always there to take care of them. It's with every woman in any field. Unless you have family support, it becomes very difficult. I feel myself lucky as I had family support with me. They were always like You can do it! You can make it! We are there for you. It matters a lot.

Wherever I go, people look up to me as a leader. It has nothing to do with my gender. I have never faced any problem from any quarter.

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

What are the challenges and the influences attached to this tag 'The first Indian woman'? I really won't say a challenge. When you are in a system, you grow with it. For example, if you are a Colonel today, you will be a Brigadier tomorrow. This is a system. With every appointment, there is a challenge. How it was for your teammates when they first time saw a woman boss? I remember, when I went to Jammu to command the hospital, I could see a palpable tension - no, not tension, may be a little apprehension especially among men that their commandant was a female. But I tell you, whether it's a male or a female, they look up to the directions from their commandant. You are a leader over there. You should have clear directions for

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

women in uniform FACE TO FACE your team members. They should have confidence in you that if anything goes wrong, our commandant is there to take care of it - he / she is capable to handle the situation, no matter what comes. If this confidence is there, they all will be willing to work. One has to build that confidence… and that direction has to be very clear. See, when I went to Jammu, the militancy was at its peak. We at the hospital had to be prepared for 24 hours with all our disaster management programmes and carried out regular drills. A thorough training was imparted to the team. Whole team was confident that in case of mass casualty, our hospital would be able to manage it. This is all what matters - your team must have that confidence that we all will manage it. As a leader, you have to create that support system and certitude in your people. I tell you, every soldier, every citizen wants to work honestly. It's just the leader has to create that confidence that I am with you. Wherever I go, people look up to me as a leader. It has nothing to do with my gender. I have never faced any problem from any quarter.

transformation of the institution over the years? When I joined AFMC as an undergraduate, there was no hostel in the institution. We 23 girls used to stay in barracks. Today, it is among the best institutions in the country and I am proud of it. Whosoever has taken the charge has done his best to bring this institution to the level what it has today. I would say, seeing is believing! The education students get here, the commitment the institution has for the society, the way a young boy / girl transforms into a well-groomed officer - it's amazing! You served in AFMC, Army as well as in Navy. Which tenure is the closest to your heart? Share with us your memories of that tenure. Every tenure is close to my heart and has pleasant memories attached to it. I was with AFMC - first as a student, then as head of the department of gynaecology, and then as commandant. As commandant, it was like I

At your Jammu posting, you faced one of the worst terrorist attacks for which you were also awarded a Vishisht Seva Medal… Oh, that was my most challenging and best posting. We did not have any clue about the attack and had to be prepared all the time. Early morning at 6, we got a call that there was an attack. My whole hospital was prepared. My whole team worked continuously for 48 hours. We did not lose a single person who was brought alive into the hospital. We had 23 brought-in dead, but in those cases we could not do anything. I give credit to my team. They really worked hard. You have had a long association with Armed Forces Medical College (AFMC), Pune. How do you see the

was handling the same cradle in which I grew. It was really a wonderful feeling. With Navy… I was a little skeptical as I had always been with the Army. Navy has a lot of things different from Army like the way you salute, the way you enter office. In Army, you cannot enter an office of senior without a cap. In Navy, you have to leave cap outside. But I would say Navy adopted me well. As DG-Medical Services, I got the opportunity to go into the submarines, interact with naval officers and know about their problems and see what I could do to solve them in that one year of my tenure. We constantly hear reports of gender bias in Armed Forces. Have you ever come across any such instance? Let me tell you, there is no gender bias in Armed Forces. When we join an organisation, we have to go by certain parameters, certain unwritten rules and regulations. When people who are not associated with it join it, it takes some time for them to adjust. See, Armed Forces are like a big family. Like, this is my house. I have to clear the mess. I cannot say it's not my duty. So, there is no gender bias as such. There could be instances of gender bias where girls might have felt someone taking advantage of them. I neither deny those reports nor confirm. But I never felt any gender bias. I went really well with all my colleagues whether they were my juniors, my seniors, my patients. There is a nationwide debate going on BSF's decision to induct women in combat duties. What's your take on this? Why not? Girls are also in our police force. If girls can guard our borders, why they can't go for combat? Being a doctor, how far do you see is it possible considering the biological disparity? Definitely, I can't deny biological disparity. If stamina is taken into

My family was always there to take care of them. It’s with every woman in any field. Unless you have family support, it becomes very difficult. 46

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

account, girls can't be at par with men. Take an instance of 100 meters race, no woman can run as fast as man. These differences are always there. But in what manner we induct them has to be seen. Tell us one thing you like most about defence services and one thing you do not like at all. The best thing is that Armed Forces transform an individual into a good human being and a responsible citizen. Here, there is nothing me, it's always us. The second best thing is discipline. Here, you learn time management, how to look after yourself, how to look after others. If possible, I would say everyone must join forces for five years. The third best part is that there is no bias of any form in Armed Forces. All stay together, eat together. All are treated at par regardless of their religion, caste, colour or creed. Except, if you have someone senior to you, you have to give him / her due respect. But this is what we do in our families also. I strongly believe, if something that really unites India, it is Armed Forces, then comes Bollywood. These two things give the feeling of Indianness. As far as my disliking is concerned, there is nothing I dislike about Armed Forces. Yes, you have to live away from your family and children. But that's temporary and a part of your job. In my next birth too, I would love to live

the same life all over again. The lives of armed personnel always fascinate people. Any popular misconception you always come across and want to dispel. People think we army personnel live luxurious life. We have big bungalows, pools, clubs and what not. They do not know what hardships we go through. When a person is in field area, he lives away from his family. When he comes to peace area, he does not get accommodation immediately. It’s three years tenure. By the time he is allotted a house, two years have already passed. Then he has to leave for field area again. Many times, family or the woman has to bring up the children all alone. Husbands are generally on border areas, even when they come on leave, they are called for flood or riot related duties. Husband and wife do not stay together like normal couples do. The rate of infertility is so high among the wives of army personnel. This is a physiological infertility which occurs due to the long periods the husbands are away in field areas. In such cases, the woman has to bear the brunt of society's barbs. I have seen cases where the woman commits suicide or goes under depression because of her inability to conceive. Today, I am really proud that I could develop the infertility wing at RR Hospital in Delhi Cantonment.

with no money and today, you are inspiration for others. How did you manage to rise from such a humble beginning? My parents wanted me and my siblings to have good education. They always felt that as we have left everything in Pakistan, it's the education which nobody can take away from our children. At that time, we were so happy. We did not have any distractions. Because we did not have money - we did not live in palatial houses, we did not have wardrobe full of clothes. We used to have one uniform, 3-4 dresses, a pair of shoes and two pairs of socks. And when you do not have distractions, you study. We never used to get tired. We never used to get bored. I do not understand how kids these days get bored. There was so much to learn for us like gardening, enjoying the birds in the sky. There are a lot of parents in the country who are still not comfortable sending their daughters in Armed Forces. What would you like to say to those parents? My message to parents is to leave them alone. See a bird. It will fly… and fly so high, unless you keep a thread around it and keep pulling. You should not go out of their life… support them, keep an eye on them and help them whenever they need you. Guide them and let them choose their careers.

Your family came to India after partition

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

conflict ASSAM IN TURMOIL

eclipsed accord Assam has become an ethno-cultural tinderbox brought on largely by the inadequacies of the Assam Accord signed in 1985 and compounded by the failure of State and Central forces to stem the infiltration from an impoverished Bangladesh. Many anguished voices have been heard in the past decade over the plight and future of the indigenous Asom population. Will the Unique Identification Number for all citizens and residents of India being created by Nandan Nilekani, former CEO of Infosys be the answer to all prayers?...

H K Bhattacharyya IPS (Retd)

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

conflict ASSAM IN TURMOIL community - a phenomenon culminating in total politicization of the issue. Therefore, the need for fighting the growing menace by all the North Eastern States from a joint platform can hardly be underscored, particularly because the ISI and other antiIndia agencies are trying to bring all the insurgent groups of the region under one umbrella. On the other hand, the fundamentalist forces are growing bolder by the day. Besides promoting their own political outfits, the fundamentalists aiming at Islamisation of Assam, are becoming more and more vocal against the indigenous people, thereby augmenting the possibilities of ethnic clashes already in evidence from time to time.

Fundamentalist agenda

he Chinese philosopher Confucius had once observed that a woman incapable of resisting rape should lie down and enjoy the experience. This dictum was followed to the letter by the helpless people of Assam when the infamous Assam Accord was signed in the midnight of 14 Aug 1985. Even after 24 years of signing the Accord, it remains to be implemented. In fact, over the years the issue has assumed much more serious proportion with pro-infiltration fundamentalist forces flexing their muscles to usurp political hegemony. In fact, the Accord was never intended to solve the problem of Bangladeshi infiltration. It served only two purposes: Firstly, it defused the six year long, legendary Assam Movement and put the main issue of illegal infiltration in cold storage. Secondly, it

facilitated the movement of few selfseeking, inexperienced youths from the hostels of Guwahati University to the seat of power at Dispur. One must not forget that the objective of the Movement was not to compel the authorities to establish few academic institutes, nor to revive some sick industries. The main objective of detecting illegal migrants and preventing fresh infiltration has remained elusive.

Politicians’ paradise In fact, there has never been, at any level, a strong political will to solve the problem once for all. Rather, politicians have been thriving by politicizing the entire issue in complete disregard to the security and integrity of the country. Once the process of politicization gained momentum, it was

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

only a matter of time before the fundamentalist forces surfaced - be it Muslim or Hindu. The Accord never took into account the shape of things to come. In fact, the Accord was a very poorly drafted document, leaving ample scope for defeating the purpose of the entire exercise. The promotion of minoritism under the cloak of secularism is certainly not aimed at furthering the interests of Assam's indigenous population. There is no denial of the fact that the entire North Eastern region of the country is facing an identity crisis. From the very beginning (particularly since the inception of the Prevention of Infiltration by Pakistan [PIP] Scheme), concerted efforts for detecting the illegal migrants have only been followed by a hue and cry of harassing the minority

The Babri Masjid incident has been a shot in the arm for Muslim fundamentalists. Assam has been no exception and the camouflaged rise of the Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF) is an unmistakable pointer in that direction. And under its aegis, at least three developments / phenomena may be said to have emanated from its hidden agenda of perpetuating fundamentalism: i) Open demand for an autonomous area for Muslims in lower Assam ii) Threat to drive out the Assamese from the districts of lower Assam iii) Demand for making “lungi” and “topi” the national dress of Assam If these are not clear threats to Assam's integrity and security for her indigenous people, what else could be? With the help of hindsight, it can be now safely asserted that there is a direct correlation between the rise of fundamentalism and unprecedented increase in influx. In a nutshell, various factors leading to the present crisis may be identified as follows: a) The overall British policy of divide and rule. b) The separatist mind-set fuelled by fundamentalist expansionism. c) The resignation of the Bordoloi ministry in 1939 in the wake of the World War II, thereby ensuring the installation of the 5th Sadullah ministry, which did the maximum damage in this context. d) The non-availability of agricultural land and acute unemployment problem in East Bengal / East Pakistan / Bangladesh coupled with very high density of population and next-door neighbourhood of Mymensingh district, the most populous district with 98 per

cent landless people. e) The adoption of the British policy of appeasement by the Congress, the Leftist parties and lately, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). f) Population explosion in Bangladesh in the absence of any effective family planning measures. g) Very slow pace of economic development in Bangladesh. h) The legacy of the Muslim League, Maulana Bhashani and Sadullah. i) Lack of stringent measures against fresh infiltrators and their harbourers on this side of the border. j) Inadequacies of existing laws and preventive measures. k) The heavy bias of the Illegal Migrants Determination by Tribunals Act in favour of the infiltrator and the unrealistic and unpractical provisions of this Act during its operative period. l) The vote bank politics. m) Rampant corruption practices of the

reported to be operating without valid licenses. p) Riverine routes are extensively used by infiltrators, but no action has so far been taken to register all kinds of river craft, let alone a round-the-clock intensive patrolling. q) Misuse of the police force financed by the central government for the sole purpose of detecting foreign infiltrators. This huge force, more often than not is regularly diverted to perform other police duties. r) The reluctance, if not failure, of the Election Commission of India to exercise its statutory powers for cleansing the ERs of the names of foreign nationals. s) Utilization of the services of a very large number of comparatively cheap Bangladeshi Muslim labourers by the contractors, government and semigovernment organizations both in the public and private sectors. A number of

The promotion of minoritism under the cloak of secularism is certainly not aimed at furthering the interests of Assam's indigenous population. Therefore, the need for fighting the growing menace by all the North Eastern States from a joint platform can hardly be underscored, particularly because the ISI and other anti-India agencies are trying to bring all the insurgent groups of the region under one umbrella. officers and employees of the departments of revenue, forest and police. n) Non-adoption of any distinct land policy by the State government in favour of the indigenous people and against the infiltrators. o) Unrestricted issue of licenses for operating cycle-rickshaws and pushcarts without verifying the nationality of the applicant and reluctance to take steps against those without valid licenses. In 2000, in Guwahati city alone, more than 20,000 such rickshaw pullers were

Assamese families are also engaging Bangladeshi Muslim women as housemaids. t) And above all, the failure of the Central Government to update the National Register of Citizens (NRC) prepared in 1951 as well as to maintain a National Register of villages. The above list is not exhaustive in nature. Many of the factors mentioned above are closely interrelated. That is to say, ignoring one factor logically leads to ignoring many others.

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

global affairs NATO WATCH

conflict ASSAM IN TURMOIL AASU contribution Further complication of the problem may be traced to the following: ● The self-seeking interest (of the then AASU leaders) and abortive end of the Assam Movement. ● Failure of the AGP and Congress to implement the Assam Accord. ● Failure coupled with unwillingness to adopt effective preventive measures against the unabated flow of Bangladeshi infiltrators. ● Mounting support in favour of the illegal migrants within Assam. ● Surfacing of fundamentalist outfits and the unlawful activities of armed underground Muslim organisations. The alien citizens, in their millions now, are yet to be identified - not to speak of deportation. Nor can one visualize any chance of their detection in the near future. It has, therefore, become imperative for the indigenous people to compel the authorities that be, to introduce strict, effective measures to prevent further infiltration with the loudest possible message that “Thus far and no further”. Obviously, this will call for all-pervading consciousness amongst the indigenous people who must present a united front to fight this common menace. Such consciousness will have to cut across ethnic and religious lines and there are clear indications that the indigenous Muslims will respond positively to such a move. Even the chances of pre-1971 stream of migrants lending active support to all preventive measures must be arduously cultivated and promoted. As the fundamentalist schools have projected the issue as a problem between Hindus and Muslims and vitiated the atmosphere thereby, the intellectuals of the state, if not the country, must come forward to project a clear picture that this is an issue between Indians and non-Indians and there is no place for any minoritist bigotry.

Identifying migrants Of all the preventive measures suggested from time to time, the following is considered imperative: the Census operation of 2001 is a thing of the past. Now all those who claim to be inhabitants of Assam should be furnished with photo identity cards without specifying the citizenship status in the identity cards so that the verification of the citizenship of any suspect may be taken up when the NRC

Fundamentalist Muslims were responsible for partitioning the country in 1947; then breaking up Pakistan in 1971 and now their sinister game of going for the kill in the shape of usurping another chunk of Indian land is gaining momentum beyond all shades of doubt.

is updated. Secondly, the issuance of such identity cards will make it impossible for the fresh entrants to claim to have come to Assam before 1971 or even 1991. This will, no doubt, make detection of fresh infiltrators that much easier. The intrusion of the immigrants into the field of economic activities at the micro level, has accentuated the identity crisis for the new generation of indigenous stock. The worst affect of such large scale influx has been reflected in the work culture of the young generations of Assam. As it happened in the southern parts of the US in the wake of the extensive prevalence of slave trade during the mid-19th century, so also the easy availability of services of Bangladeshi infiltrators in abundance and that too at comparatively cheaper rates, is making the youths of Assam allergic to hard labour with the result that the areas of economic activities involving menial labour are slipping into the hands of the Bangladeshis, both Muslims and Hindus. Needless to mention that nature abhors vacuum and the vacuum created by the poor work culture of the Assamese youths that has emerged over the years, is being filled up by the Bangladeshis most enthusiastically. Besides, the engagement of Bangladeshi

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

labour both in the unskilled and semiskilled sectors on a massive scale, has added a new and serious dimension to the ever growing unemployment problem in Assam. As such, not only in the political field, but the crisis of identity has expanded into economic, linguistic and cultural fields too. Linguistic because, millions of immigrant Muslims are being instigated to change gear and declare Bengali as their mother tongue. So the day may not be far off when there would be a demand for declaring Bengali as another state language for whole of Assam. The talks / discourses centering round the issue of assimilating the pre-1971 stream of immigrants into mainstream of Assam's community life may become irrelevant in the context of the numerical superiority being gained by the migrants from East Bengal / East Pakistan and now Bangladesh. Fundamentalist Muslims were responsible for partitioning the country in 1947; then breaking up Pakistan in 1971 and now their sinister game of going for the kill in the shape of usurping another chunk of Indian land is gaining momentum beyond all shades of doubt. It is noteworthy that Parsees could not survive in Persia (Iran); Christians in Lebanon and Hindus in Afghanistan / Pakistan / Bangladesh. As such our call to the new generation of Assam, irrespective of ethnicity, would be in the words of Walter Scott: "Breathes there the man With soul so dead Who never to himself hath said This is my own, My native land".

The writer is retired 1958 Batch IPS officer of the Assam-Meghalaya Cadre and an authority on the issue of illegal migration from Bangladesh and North East's demography related dangers.

afghanistan dares new

NATO Chief Justyna Bajer

NATO's new boss Anders Fogh Rasmussen is determined to control the situation in Afghanistan by 2013. There are huge expectations from his tenure, but given the frictions within the Alliance, worsening ground situation and declining support for the war, the prospects for his success appear unpromising. Will he be able to meet the challenge?

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

global affairs NATO WATCH Photo courtesy: NATO

ith a new sense of urgency, Denmark's Anders Fogh Rasmussen, freshly appointed Chief of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), put the war in Afghanistan on the very top of his agenda. Many, indeed, credit him as the most suitable person to tackle the challenge. But with persistent contradictions within the Alliance, worsening ground situation and declining support for the war, prospects for his success seem quite cloudy, at best. Internationally, Mr. Fogh Rasmussen has the reputation for handling difficult talks ahead of the EU's biggest and most ambitious expansion to 10 states. In 2003, he supported the invasion of Iraq by sending some 500 Danish troops alongside American soldiers. He enjoys good relations with the United States, France and Germany which definitely helped him to overcome Turkish objections and eventually gain the NATO top job. "He is probably one of the best we could have at this time," said Peter Dahl Thruelsen, a research fellow at the Institute for Strategy, Royal Danish Defence College. "He has very extended experience with very complex political negotiations at a very high level." One of his strongest cards in the run for the post, which has traditionally gone to Europeans, was his country's engagement in Afghanistan. Denmark has proportionally suffered the heaviest losses there compared to other NATO allies. Its contingent of around 700 troops is the largest of all major contributors to the mission, when measured per capita of population. And Danes do a tough job in Afghanistan. As of 2006, they were mainly deployed in the southern province of Helmand, one of the most treacherous parts of the country. In his home country where he served three times as the head of government, Mr Fogh Rasmussen is known for having goal-oriented attitude and meticulous style. "That is part of his strengths, always being organised and always being prepared for things," in the words of Kevin McGwin, editor of the local weekly newspaper The Copenhagen Post. "He may lack charisma", according to McGwin, "but his determination makes easier for him to find ways to get job done". There is one more (at least) remarkable feature about Mr Fogh Rasmussen-his openness in communicating with the outside world. His official Facebook page and blog have attracted thousands of supporters. In fact, to be successful in

General McChrystal greets NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen at Kabul International Airport

Mr. Fogh Rasmussen wants the Alliance to step up its military efforts in the theatre, but there is little understanding for that among European leaders. He wants civil reconstruction to move forward, but most of the money from international community goes into the pockets of the warlords and drug-lords. Brussels, he might well need them.

Defeat is not on NATO Chief's desk For NATO chief, failure is not an option. "NATO is not losing and will not lose the war in Afghanistan," he stated in one of his recent blog entries. Mr Fogh Rasmussen hopes to see the Afghan government in

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

control of most parts of the country at the end of his term in 2013. While this may seem a positive signal of increased determination to get the job done, for many the scenario appears far too optimistic. Why? Mr. Fogh Rasmussen wants the Alliance to step up its military efforts in the theatre, but there is little understanding for that among European leaders. He wants civil reconstruction to move forward, but

Photo courtesy: ISAF

most of the money from international community goes into the pockets of the warlords and drug-lords. And finally, he wants the Afghan security forces to stand up on their own feet. Indeed, a broad majority agrees that the Afghan Army's growth has been quite remarkable, but national police remain riddled with corruption and generally are unable to protect citizens. "In some situations, the police are undermining our efforts more than they are strengthening them," commented Dahl Thruelsen. The year 2008 was the deadliest for American troops and Afghan civilians since the very start of Operation Enduring Freedom in October 2001. Today, the picture is even grimmer. Western casualties remain at highest with August being the bloodiest month on record for the United States (see the pie chart below). Insurgent activity continues rising. Some 40 per cent of the country is no-go area being either vulnerable to attacks or directly under Taliban control, according to a threat map developed by the UN before 2009 summer fighting season. "The situation in

Coalition Military Fatalities By Year Year

Other Total

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

12 49 48 52 99 98 117 155 267

0 3 0 1 1 39 42 51 86

0 17 9 6 31 54 73 88 83

12 69 57 59 131 191 232 294 436

223

361

1481

Total 897

Source: http://icasualties.org; Data as on Oct 2009

Afghanistan is serious," reads the latest assessment by Gen. Stanley McChrystal, US commander on the ground. "[…] many indicators suggest the overall situation is deteriorating. We face not only a resilient and growing insurgency; there is also a crisis of confidence […]"

In race against time NATO finds itself in an unprecedented and stressful situation. Many claim that its credibility will not survive a failure in the Afghan mission, which is going far beyond the range of military operation. At the same time, Mr Fogh Rasmussen lacks institutional power to assure a basic prerequisite for the success, that of unity. In Europe, most of the countries have a different story to tell on why they went to Afghanistan in the first place; most of the countries actually want their citizens to believe that they are not even involved in a war. The ability of European governments to renew their commitment is further restraint by a continuous decline in public support for the combat. In Britain, the second largest contributor to the mission with more than 9000 troops, nearly 60 per cent of the population believes their countrymen should be withdrawn (YouGov poll for Sky News, August 14, 2007). Even greater opposition can be found in Germany and France. "That's understandable; after all war has been eight years now and we have not seen much

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

global affairs NATO WATCH

Coalition deaths by nationality Australia Belgium Canada Czech Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania South Korea Spain Sweeden Turkey UK USA

11 01 131 03 26 06 01 36 34 02 22 03 01 21 04 15 02 11 01 26 02 02 223 897

* Figures are for 2001-09 as on Oct 2009

Mr. Fogh Rasmussen wants the Alliance to step up its military efforts in the theatre, but there is little understanding for that among European leaders. progress," explained Thomas Renard from the Royal Institute for International Relations, Egmont in Brussels. Meanwhile, the Pentagon's 2010 budget is, for the first time, higher on Afghanistan than on Iraq at US $65 billion (bln) against US $61 bln. The true bill will certainly be higher, adding to some US $200 bln spent so far. What is more, the US is debating a heavier footprint for tribal regions. It is still to see whether and how many additional troops will go into the Afghan operation. But the bottom line is: NATO may have to face further "Americanisation" of its International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission. "It is very important that NATO keeps in the mission to balance the US takeover […]," said Dahl Thruelsen. "It is important that NATO stays in the mission to ask critical questions but also to create the overall legitimacy that the mission very much needs." The ensuing problem of legitimacy for NATO goes wider with a contentious German air strike near Kunduz, which had cost around 100 lives including civilians,

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

and recent reports of fraudulent presidential elections. The August vote was to bring government authority and make way for international forces to be back in the game. That scenario had failed. Now a rising, though still relatively small, number of American pundits opts for a plan "B". Under the debated proposal, substantially reduced forces conduct operations using mainly drones and air strikes in the areas where Al-Qaeda is based. The idea is unlikely to win in the White House but it shows the battle fatigue on the rise and strengthening sense that the war in Afghanistan is not winnable. ISAF needs a new strategy that matches goals with resources and NATO needs a strong leadership to generate political will for intensified efforts. There is clearly limited time to show that the war in Afghanistan is actually working. Whether Anders Fogh Rasmussen is the right person at the right time, only the coming months will unveil.

Photo courtesy: NATO

geo politics NEW POWERHOUSE

will SCO rein in NATO? Brig (Dr) Anil Sharma (Retd)

Suddenly the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) tsunami across territories once dominated by the former Soviet Union appears to have hit a dyke. Its outpost in Afghanistan is under siege. The US attempt to plant Star Wars missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic has been stalled. Fears across the western world that the nascent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is emerging as a true rival to NATO in the East are gaining momentum. The rise of the SCO is surely a factor altering the Eurasian geopolitical calculus…. n April 26, 1996, three Central Asian Republics of the former Soviet Union - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - the now denuded Russian Federation and a resurgent China met in the Pacific seaboard city of Shanghai with the intent of forging a strategic partnership. They called themselves the Shanghai Five. They witnessed the signing of the Treaty of Deepening Military Trust in Border Regions by the Heads of State of China and Russia. The Shanghai Five mechanism was aimed at strengthening confidence-building and disarmament in the border regions. In 1997, meeting in Moscow the same countries signed the Treaty on Reduction of Military Forces in Border Regions. Formally, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was incorporated as an intergovernmental international organization on June 15, 2001 in Shanghai because the inclusion of Uzbekistan as the sixth member had made the name redundant (refer Map 1). The SCO Charter covers a vast canvas of foreign policy, strategic, security, political and economy arenas. Economic and anti-terrorism, extremism and separatism (TES) activities are the key areas of cooperation for the SCO. They serve as the material foundation and guarantee for SCO's smooth development.

Represents half the world The SCO member countries cover an area of over 30 million km, or about three-fifths of Eurasia, with a population of 1.455 billion (about a quarter of the world's total). Its working languages are Chinese and Russian. The Observer countries are India, Iran, Pakistan and Mongolia. Population comes to 45 per cent of humanity, 50 per cent of landmass and 25 per cent of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), including the data from Observer countries. Sri Lanka and Belarus have been made dialogue partner in June 2009. Afghanistan, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) enjoy the status of guest countries. Incidentally, these comprise four nuclear armed countries (refer Tables-1, 2).

Rich energy resources In the new geostrategic “Great Game” between Russia and the West over the future of Caspian and Central Asian energy resources, the prize resembles a set of traditional

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

geo politics NEW POWERHOUSE Map 1

Matreshka Russian dolls (refer Map 2). ● The outermost doll represents the three nations bordering the Caspian region Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. ● In the middle of the collection is Uzbekistan, the most populous of the new Central Asian nations. ● The innermost doll consists of the two most easterly "Stans," Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, rich in hydroelectric potential, but relatively poor in hydrocarbons. ● As prizes go, it is certainly a tempting one. The Caspian's 143,244 square miles and attendant coastline are estimated to contain as much as 250 billion barrels of recoverable oil, boosted by more than 200 billion barrels of potential reserves. That is aside from up to 328 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas.

SCO’s sweep The Afghanistan Contact Group was signed in Beijing on November 04, 2005 to help bring stability in Afghanistan. The SCO is rendering economic and humanitarian assistance to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRA) to rebuild the infrastructure of the war-torn nation and take measures for its socio-economic rehabilitation. It set up the Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (RATS). The SCO is among the first international organisations to advocate explicitly the fight against the three evil forces. On June 15, 2001, the day when SCO was founded, Shanghai Convention against Terrorism, Extremism

Who is dominating SCO?

and Separatism (TES) was signed. Its RATS is a permanent organ based in Tashkent, capital of Uzbekistan. Its function is to coordinate SCO member activities against TES. China and Kyrgyzstan conducted a joint anti-terrorism military exercise within the SCO framework in October 2002 and also held another multilateral similar exercise in August 2003. Since then, large number of exercises have been conducted. The SCO has recently set up an anti-narcotic drugs cooperative mechanism. The economic cooperation among SCO member states is gaining regional multilateral dimensions. Many obstacles for trade have been removed. Procedures have been simplified for banking operations among member states, thus transforming the organisation into a sort of economic club. Efforts are being made to improve north-south corridor and an energy grid corridor to link Russia to South Asia via Iran. Under the UNDPSCO partnership programme, the UNDP has contributed funds for the Silk Road Regional Programme. Clearly, the activities of SCO have moved much beyond the narrow focus of counterterrorism to a much more inclusive agenda encompassing infrastructure, trade, demographics, counter terrorism, narcotics, regional security etc. SCO's activities have been intensified in the recent years. In 2008, a total of 91 events took place. In 2009 also, the pace has been equally hectic.

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

Which countries are the dominant stakeholders? Is it Russia and China, or the regional countries? It appears, the agenda is being essentially set by Russia and China for their own strategic interests. Both these countries appear to be leveraging SCO to contain eastward expansion of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), which they perceive as a challenge. Behind this façade, there is also a standoff on energy security. Relationship between China and Russia may be described as tactical at best. China is seen as an aggressive economic player with ambitions of cornering energy resources and developing silk routes to link with markets in Europe. It has promoted the idea of SCO Common Market but there are not many takers. To a large extent, an access to the waters of Indian Ocean will provide majority of the Central Asian Republic (CAR) States much larger markets and shorter access to international energy and trade routes, as also remove their dependence on two big and overbearing neighbours. Pakistan and Iran look forward to it. China would prefer an alternative northward move of energy from Indian Ocean as shorter route and eastward from CAR States towards China. Russia is not keen as it prefers northward / NW flow from CAR region. Interestingly, majority of CAR States are following balancing and multi-vector strategies. There is a discernible shift towards SCO's emergence as an active regional structure. The SCO can, at best, be considered the joint guarantor of CAR security needs along with Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) led by Russia. In the near future, SCO has been steadily pursuing its economic integration agenda. It also includes formation of a free trade zone and setting up rules for free movement of goods, services and technologies within SCO member states.

India and SCO A strong India-SCO relationship would bring major trade and investment opportunities for India with other SCO states. The SCO members include two major global energy producers outside Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) i.e. Russia and Kazakhstan. Hence, India's aim of obtaining energy security could be better served through SCO forum which might not be possible in isolation. SCO and India both share common interest in disrupting terrorist networks in

Map 2 and around Afghanistan, as both SCO and India view Afghanistan as a crucial strategic challenge. India is a major donor for the reconstruction and assistance programmes in Afghanistan, while SCO States are involved in the ground work to develop roads, electricity and other energy projects. Government of Afghanistan also wants closer cooperation with SCO as well as with India. The Special Working Group on Afghanistan could provide good opportunity for both SCO and India to develop common approaches and to exchange views on solving problems as drug trafficking and the resurgence of Taliban. India could provide greater counterweight in conjunction with Russia to checkmate China dominating the forum, particularly the smaller States.

Weaknesses of SCO

MEMBER COUNTRIES SALIENCE (Table 1) MEMBERS RUSSIA CHINA KAZAKHSTAN KYRGYSTAN UZBEKISTAN TAJIKSTAN TOTAL

POPULATION 140,041247 1,338,612,968 15,399,437 5,431,747 27,606,007 7,349,145 1,520580551

GROWTH -0.46% 0.65% 0.39% 1.39% 0.93% 1.87%

GDP 6% 8% 3% 6% 8.9% 9%

MARKET $1.757Tn $4.222Tn $141.2Bn $5.05Bn $26.62Bn $4.788Bn

PPP $2.225Tn $7.8Tn $176.9Bn $11.41Bn $71.63Bn $15.4Bn

OBSERVER COUNTRIES SALIENCE (Table 2) OBSERVERS MONGOLIA IRAN PAKISTAN INDIA TOTAL

POPULATION 3,041,142 66,429,28 176,242,949 1166,079,217 1411792592

GROWTH 1.49% 0.88% 1.9% 1.54%

GDP 8.9% 5% 8% 6.9%

MARKET $4.991Bn $382.3Bn $160.9Bn $1.237Tn

PPP $9.557Bn $842Bn $452.7Bn $3.267Tn

The Chinese have little interest in the domestic policies of the Central Asian regimes. Beijing is not encouraging them to be autocratic, and would not be disturbed if they become democratic. But, like rest of the SCO member States, the leadership in Beijing believe that security threats come from the groups with alien (read extremist) ideologies but are not emanating from the domestic policies (and in particular human rights abuses) of the governments themselves. This perspective, which is viewed as virtually definitional in the SCO States, is obviously wholly antithetical to the views held by the US government and by leading governments in other Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) States. Uzbekistan is the most populous country in the Central Asian Republics. Russia's population is also steadily declining and by 2030 its population is expected to be half of Pakistan. Even its military-industrial complex is in decline with the gradual d0ecrease in China's dependence on it. On this count therefore, the region does not carry much weight or influence. Migration issue is complicated and polemical. Except Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, water is scarce. There is a competition over sharing of water, electricity generation and sharing is also a contentious issue.

MEMBER PLUS OBSERVER 2932373143 (44% of the World)

Challenges ahead

REGIONAL SALIENCE (Table 3) NEIGHBOURS POPULATION GROWTH TURKMENISTAN 4,884,887 1.14% AFGHANISTAN 33,609,937 2.6%

GDP 10% 7.5%

MARKET PPP $28.82Bn $29.65Bn $12.85Bn $23.03Bn

Expansion of Members: According to the SCO Secretary General, 'expansion is inevitable' but preference will be given to the geographic proximity of that country with SCO States i.e. common border with

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

geo politics NEW POWERHOUSE at least one Member State. Although there is an acknowledgment that Observer States need to be brought deeper into the activity loop of the SCO through partnership in dialogue and pragmatic cooperation. The SCO's decision to expand its membership involves regional integration processes. Behind this decision, there is an attempt to checkmate growing eastward presence of NATO. Both Russia and China have been keenly nurturing the SCO as an exclusive organisation to restrain the US strategic outreach. Another important issue is that of Afghanistan's membership. While President Karzai has been regularly feted at most of the summits, but no SCO Head of State has visited Afghanistan till date. There is large expression of interest including aid being provided yet there has been no initiative from SCO to force Afghanistan's candidature. Concerns about US and NATO are understandable but efforts can be made. Instead Sri Lanka and Belarus have been inducted. Notwithstanding above, both Russia and China are keen to make Iran a full member. Most CAR States do not express specific views but are keen to have balancing arrangement to deal with growing influence of both Russia-China and US-NATO. Similarly, Kazakhstan supports Indian full membership as a counterweight to growing regional influence of China, but would like it to be more proactive in Central Asia. Afghanistan is now a member of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Instead of Afghanistan joining SCO, can the two regional entities have an inter-regional cooperative arrangement? This would be in keeping with the emerging trend in today's world of integrated security. Today, no region can develop without taking into consideration the role of strategically placed countries that may lie outside the boundaries of that region. This factor has become the driving force behind all regional organisations in today's world. It could also expand in different strategic directions, such as towards South Asia, South-West Asia, or the Caspian Sea. Alternatively, it could cover Greater Central Asia, or form a Sino-Russian-Indian strategic triangle. Anti-TES or Collective Security: Whether to concentrate on fighting terrorism or on fostering collective security? How will SCO react in the event of another Colour Revolution like Tulip Revolution occurring? Will it take a 'Shanghai Spirit' type noninterventionist approach, the Russian

approach of inaction, or the CIS' selective interventionist approach? US Military Bases: What will SCO do about US military bases in Central Asia? In 2005, it asked Washington for a withdrawal timetable. Yet its current approach mixes balancing and accommodating strategic interests, or passing the buck, depending on economic interests. Regional Economic Cooperation: China wishes to discuss the region's energy resources, arguing for an Energy Cooperation Framework. Energy-rich Russia, however, wants to dominate the energy supply in the region and has downplayed this, suggesting instead an 'energy club'.

Competition dynamics Will the Chinese continue to dominate the SCO? Will Russia continue to play second fiddle within the organisation? For Russia, it was wiser to cooperate and have open relations with the adversary than find itself in confrontation or competition with it. Each is playing military potential to its unique selling proposition (USP); Russia - energy, armament industry, nuclear arsenal. China - economic power, counter TES record, future. There is a distinct possibility of a growing Chinese hegemony. The more threatening China becomes, the greater will be the likelihood of the emergence of a counter-balance. The Central Asian States are leveraging China economically, Russia militarily and also leveraging the US - perhaps for energy security. The idea that the region is the exclusive sphere of influence of Russia and China is incorrect. There is bound to be immense competition between Russia, China and the US on the question of who will control the oil and natural gas resources of Central Asia.

SCO summit 2009 At the SCO summit in June 2009, the SCO and Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) meetings were held in tandem. This initiative seems to emphasise multipolarity, where the role of emerging economies has been forcefully underscored. The climate for such an initiative has been just right as Obama led US is also seeking multilateral cooperation on global friction spots - where US is heavily engaged, while Russia and China are seen to be watching the show from the sidelines and gaining by default. A platform has been created for resolving ongoing issues bilaterally at

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

regional forum. Trilateral meeting on Afghanistan among Russia, Pakistan and Afghanistan and meeting between Manmohan Singh and Zardari underscore the value addition to the SCO mechanism. Friendly noises have been made towards the US, while hosting the above bilateral talks. Restraint and dialogue have been urged on Iran and North Korean issues as per traditional stand of both Russia and China. Cooperation among interregional forums has been urged in international trade and security fields. Bilateral dialogue between Russia and China further supports the SCO declaration. It appears to be an attempt to end speculations regarding divergence in the long term goals of the two countries. Interestingly, minutes of the discussion allude to "the tremendous potential of tripartite strategic confabulations among Russia-China-India through forum like SCO". Draft on working out the mechanism and criteria for expanding the membership could not be presented, being not yet finalised. It seems to be a contentious issue among the members. Emphasis on regional cooperation in the areas encompassing comprehensive security framework is noteworthy. Through this summit, Russians

have shown that they are also a major stakeholder in the SCO. India's position on various issues is seen to be in convergence with the SCO declaration. Indian Prime Minister has also offered India's active interest in multifarious cooperation with the countries of the region. This includes energy and infrastructure as also trade corridor development, cultural and non-traditional security areas. India, without compromising its foreign policy essence, has also strived to contribute towards manifestation of a multi-polar world order. SCO is gradually realizing its ambitious economic integration agenda, including formation of a free trade zone and setting up rules for the free movement of goods, services and technologies within SCO member states.

Evolving salience The view that security arrangements are driven by national interests alone, stems from a realist, real politic worldview - as exemplified by security alliances like NATO, Warsaw Pact. Ideology and cultural values (such as a shared interest in promoting free trade, liberal democratic / autocratic values etc.) are just as important in determining the thrust of a security arrangement between States - as highlighted by the emerging organizations like SCO, ASEAN, SAARC. When we speak of the SCO in terms of a strategic partnership, it begins to be seen in the framework of a partnership only between China and Russia, which is misleading. The SCO is a security provider for the 21st century, encompassing not only traditional,

SCO and India both share common interest in disrupting terrorist networks in and around Afghanistan. India could provide greater counterweight in conjunction with Russia to checkmate China dominating the forum.

but also against non-traditional security threats including environmental concerns and separatism, which is a problem confronting Asia. The organisation is a laboratory for working out relations that are not bilateral in nature. It is an interesting experiment in the exercise of soft power, which Chinese President Hu Jintao describes as "loose regional organization" while the European Union (EU) sees as "work in progress". Its evolution needs to be watched with interest.

The writer is Joint Director at Institute of National Security Studies, New Delhi and Senior Research Fellow with Forum for Strategic and Security Studies, New Delhi.

References * Ablat Khodzhaev, The Central Asian Policy of the People's Republic of China, The China And Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Volume 7, No. 1 February 2009. * Antoaneta Bezlova, Shanghai Cooperation Organization Split on Georgia www.ips.org, 18 September 2008. * Raghav Sharma, India and Central Asia; Road Ahead, New Delhi, IPCS Special Report, January 2008. * Articles on SCO www.sco.org. * Damian Murphy, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Threatening Human Rights, Providing Regional Cooperation and Stability? Washington, Freedom House, September 2007. * Jefferson E. Turner, Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Paper Tiger or Regional Powerhouse?, Monterey, Naval Postgraduate School, CA 93943-5000, September 2005. * Lowell Dittmer, Sebastien Peyrouse, SinoRussian Relations in Central Asia and the Caucasus, Washington D.C., John Hopkins University, 6-7 May, 2009. * Martha Brill Olcott The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Changing the "Playing Field" in Central Asia, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Testimony before the Helsinki Commission, September 26, 2006. * News report, China, Russia Sign Five Point Joint Statement, www. chinaview.cn * Pages on Encyclopedia Wikipedia, Shanghai Cooperation Organization 2009, www.wikipedia.org. * Ravi Prasad Narayan, China, Terrorism and the SCO. New Delhi, IPCS Paper 780, Dec 2003.

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

introspection STRATEGIC CULTURE

a sordid tale of

india’s strategic culture RSN Singh

This year, the decision not to celebrate the ‘Kargil Diwas’ once again exposes the age-old tradition of neglect of the country’s security and its disunity in strategic purposes. It is high time India reassessed its strategic directions.

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

uly 26 is the Kargil Diwas (popularly known as Vijay Diwas), the day to commemorate the 527 martyrs of the Indian armed forces and another 1,363 personnel who were wounded in the 45-day long battle against Pakistan. It is a day to salute our brave soldiers who proved their might despite the insignificant operational leaders and indecisive political leadership. Occasions such as Kargil Diwas can serve as potent symbols of nation-building. But to our utter dismay, this year, the government of India decided not to celebrate 'Kargil Diwas'. This decision, more than anything else, exposes the lack of strategic culture and disunity amongst the polity and the people in strategic purposes. This shows how insecure our political class is and how skewed sense of priority they have of the political colours. It is the same political class which has no time to debate the defence budget. It is the same political class who did not protest in parliament when it was suggested by the leadership that army should be used for agriculture. All this when the army has saved Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) for us. The political pioneers are showered with exaggerated praise for giving India a resplendent Constitution, notwithstanding the mutilation of its spirit over the years. They did not think necessary to enunciate a defence policy. When the British General Sir Rob Lockhard, first C-N-C of Armed Forces of free India, went to Nehru with the defence paper asking for a policy directive for defence, Nehru (according to Lockhard) bursted saying, "Rubbish! Total Rubbish! We don't need a defence policy. Our policy is Ahimsa (NonViolence). We see no military threats. As far as I am concerned, you can scrap the army - the police are good enough to meet our security needs." Indian political mindsets or external security was thus way-down by two aspects - non-violence (Ahimsa) and the paranoia about military takeover. If non-violence and satyagraha were such a powerful weapon, why did we use force or its implicit threat for integration of some princely states eviction of intruders in J&K in 1947-48 and liberation of Goa? Why do not we give credit for being sensitive enough to our non-violent methods in granting us independence? Did the armed forces have no role to

The greatest injustice India can do to itself is in allowing the perpetuation of the hyphenated equation with Pakistan. If there is any hyphenated equation in South Asia, it is India-China and not India-Pakistan.

military strength are the two sides of a coin. The military takeovers in our neighbourhood had disconcerted India's political leadership to the extent that the Indian Armed Forces came to be considered as an adversary, we should be put under-check. The then prevailing discourse was similar to the present situation in Nepal, where the Maoists consider the Nepal Army as its arch enemy. 1962 was therefore waiting to happen. Consequent to the 1962 war, as desired by our leadership, we have made Chinese 7½' tall. The overall Chinese machinations - its posturing towards Arunachal Pradesh, its negative role vis-àvis India in the Security Council, its nuclear and missile transfer to Pakistan, its role in fomenting insurgencies in India, and its thrust in Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka - is known, but ignored. Instead the media is blamed for overly 'routine intrusions'. The most glaring shortcoming in the Kargil War was the lack of understanding and coordination between the Indian Air Forces and the Indian Army. Very crucial days were lost as the two services could not agree on the approach to the conduct of joint operation. The need for a single-point military advice was more than underscored. Still, there is no consensus or unanimity on the appointment of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS). All these are nothing but a sad reflection on the India's strategic culture.

Past Reflections play in India's Independence? Clement Attlee, the British Prime Minister at the time of India's independence, told the Chief Justice and acting Governor of West Bengal that the British authorities decided to leave India primarily because of the growing anti-British feeling in the armed forces. He maintained that the damage done by Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose was not much in physical terms but in terms of the seeds of disaffection that he had sowed within the armed forces. The naval mutiny further strengthened the feeling in the British leadership that with the ultimate instrument, i.e. the Armed Forces, being consumed by pro-independence ideas, the time for the British rule in India was over. With the continued emphasis on nonviolence, it was completely ignored by our foreign policy architects that diplomacy and

The Pan-Indian approach to country's security never existed for most part of the recorded history, even in preBritish era. Feuding regional kingdoms had always characterised India. Traces of which can still be seen on the social fabric of the country. In span of 2500 years, India exercised robust central authority only for five or six centuries. There are no hints of any maritime strategy, ever developed by Indian rulers. India also completely missed out on the revolution in naval architecture, which took place in Europe during the Renaissance period. It was only the British who implemented the Albuquerque's Indian Ocean maritime strategy for securing the three choke points - Cape of Good Hope, the Malacca Straits, the Oman Straits and subsequently Suez Canal after 1870. These historical facts suggest that the pre-British rulers never

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

introspection STRATEGIC CULTURE

developed a comprehensive geo-political thinking, and consequently never came out with a strategy. This lack of strategic culture is also evident, even in the initial years of India's independence. This is largely due to the zero participation of the Indian population in the foreign policy and strategic agenda of the country, which always remained the domain of the British. Moreover, when Indian troops fought for Britain in two World Wars, no Indian was involved in the extensive strategies of these wars. It is only after Independence, Indian leaders got an opportunity to steer the country in a global order based on nationstates. Notwithstanding its feuding kingdoms, India, in essence, had always been a nation, largely attributed to its

West, the distance proves to be tantalizingly elusive. If there is any country which has the potential to seriously challenge the target, it is India - provided it develops a global strategic vision, pioneering attitude and its brightest minds do not continue to be consumed by the assembly-line education system. There is a constituency in India, who tend to ignore the fact that wars occur once in some years. But, when they do, they change the course of history. The Battle of Plassey in 1757 laid the foundation of nearly 200 years of British rule in India; the Battle of Buxar in 1764 proved decisive for the already tottering Mughal Empire; the 1857 War of Independence shifted the rule from East India Company to British Emperor; the two World Wars particularly World War II

cultural and geographical unity. A prominent feature of India's geography is its well-defined frontiers. Towards the continuity of its civilization, India owes much to its geographical unity rather than any strategic attributes. The Asian countries as such, sans Japan, were not the protagonists in the two World Wars. In many cases, they fought under the leadership of their colonial masters. Thus, Asia and Africa missed out significantly on scientific and military headway in the most innovative years of the history of mankind. Some of the Asian countries, which include India, Pakistan and China, have been trying to catch up with the West. But, due to the inexorably shifting benchmarks set by the

The security apparatus which is evolving in India is a frustrating exercise, which often ends up in a deliberate and dispassionate analysis

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

brought Indian soldiers the exposure to modern warfare at air, land and sea. In this world war, despite its victory, Britain's economic and physical debilitation hastened the process of India's inevitable independence. After independence, Pakistan army's invasion of Kashmir which, in the wake of partition and under the guise of tribal uprising, led to the UN sponsored ceasefire and the creation of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). PoK was created despite Indian Army having an edge. India continues to pay the price for accepting UN mediation prematurely. Then there is 1962 War with China which shook up India from its slumber of an innocent infant. Prior to 1962 war, India's annual defence expenditure had been averaged around Rs. 210 crore, which quadrupled thereafter. In a matter of three years after 1962 war, India was relatively strong to beat back a Pakistani misadventure in 1965. These wars served as a progenitor of a strategic culture, even though it was much restricted. The 1971 war witnessed the perfect blend of political purpose, foreign policy, strategic imperatives, and military will and leadership. This war also heralded the ascent of the Indian Navy as a reckonable maritime power in the Indian Ocean region. Though India emerged as the powerful force in the South Asian region, era of 80s suggests that India's strategic culture was not mature enough to differentiate between wars of necessity or of choice, or preventive wars. At that time, not many people, even those from the informed sections, were able to comprehend the basis of India's peace initiative in Sri Lanka, which led to the deployment of Indian troops. The threat emanating from instability in Sri Lanka can be said to have subdued after the decimation of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) by their security forces. Nevertheless, the problem may reinvent itself in some other form, if the aspirations of Sri Lankan Tamils are not addressed. The Indian military assistance to Maldives in 1988, at the insistence of the island country, in squashing an attempted coup by the mercenaries demonstrated India's increased strategic reach. Then came the event, which had the profound impact on the military and strategic thinking of India - the 'Gulf War'. Prior to this war, India's strategic consciousness never took note of the significance of Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). Most strategic and military thinkers in India were

over-swayed by the outcome of Vietnam War. The logic of 'Man behind the weapon' was stretched beyond its elastic limit. The Kargil conflict in 1999 was the first military engagement between India and Pakistan after the two countries went overtly nuclear. It proved a gross miscalculation by Pakistan riding high on its new found nuclear capabilities. Pakistan had probably perceived that considering its nuclear ability, India would be forced to limit its retaliation and, at the same time, the international community would be compelled to mediate in the Kashmir problem since the conflict would present itself as a nuclear flashpoint. In the process, if any additional tactical aims were achieved, Pakistan may have considered it incidental. With the vast and well trained military machine at the command of the Indian Armed Forces, the eviction of the intruders was inevitable and therefore a foregone conclusion. This war brought to the fore the urgent need for revamp and modernization of India's intelligence apparatus and defence structure. Some

Clement Attlee, the British Prime Minister at the time of Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s independence, told the Chief Justice and acting Governor of West Bengal that the British authorities decided to leave India primarily because of the growing antiBritish feeling in the armed forces

half-hearted measures were also taken in this regard. Efforts were also made to refine the command and control of the strategic assets of the country. The continuous dilution of India's strategic and military resolve after Kargil is atypical of India's strategic culture, wherein wars are treated as natural calamities rather than means to peace. Soon after independence, the Indian Army fought a protracted war in Jammu & Kashmir, it carried out operations in Hyderabad to maintain the physical integrity of India, and it liberated Goa from the Portuguese. Yet, by late 50s, a proposal was mooted in the parliament to use the army for agricultural and other jobs. The then Defence Minister supported the proposal. This minister believed more in the 'power of argument' than the 'argument of power'. The 1962 war therefore was waiting to happen. Public memory with regard to defining incidents on external and internal security fronts is very short. Therefore, the security apparatus which is evolving in India is a frustrating exercise, which often ends up in a deliberate and dispassionate analysis. The real and worth considering plans and proposals are sacrificed at the altar of individual interests and institutional fiefdoms. The institutions of internal power, as inherited from the British, have been enjoying far too much influence without the corresponding enhancement in the status and role of the military. It is both a legacy of colonial rule and feudalism. The greatest injustice India can do to itself is in allowing the perpetuation of the hyphenated equation with Pakistan. Politically, economically, scientifically and militarily, India has much depth and novelty compared to Pakistan. India's nuclear and missile programme, unlike Pakistan, has been a part of its evolving technological prowess. It enjoys far greater international respectability and economic, institutional and social resilience than Pakistan. Pakistan has far too much vulnerability, most of which are self-created; therefore it has been a hostage to international power play. It has even invited the ignominious epithet of a 'failed state'. India is the seventh largest country in terms of area and has the second largest population in the world. It also enjoys the distinction of having the second largest army, fourth largest air force and eighth largest navy. It has geographical interface with China (border 3,440 km.), a communist bastion and aspiring global power. India has all the potential and attributes to strategically countervail China

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

introspection STRATEGIC CULTURE

The compartmentalization of governance and security in exclusive ‘civilian and military’ spheres is the biggest obstacle in the evolution of strategic culture in India i.e. manpower resources; scientific, technological and industrial base; a welltrained armed forces; nuclear and space capability; and a resurgent economy. In fact, India has greater intrinsic economic strength than China. As China's geopolitical significance increases, so will India's. In the Cold War era, China had gained similar importance even while being a much inferior power compared to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). Therefore, if there is any hyphenated equation in South Asia, it is India-China and not India-Pakistan. For India to occupy its deserved position, the imperative is physical and psychological security, which is not possible without the involvement of the people in matters relating to strategic thought and military affairs. The compartmentalisation of governance and security in exclusive ‘civilian and military’

spheres is the biggest obstacle in the evolution of strategic culture and unity of strategic purpose. A robust strategic culture is a necessity not only for the

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

security of the country, but more importantly for the self-confidence and self-pride of the citizens. In the past monarchical system, the kings and other members of the royalty led their troops into battle for the defence or expansion of their kingdom. Some of these rulers like Ashoka, Chandragupta, and Akbar, were politically astute and intellectuals in their own right and were also adept in military strategy and warfare. In the Falkland War in 1982, Prince Andrews of Britain rendered sterling military service. More recently, the Prince of Bhutan had participated in military action against the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) cadres, who had illegally setup camps in Bhutan's territory. In India, there has been a disturbing trend amongst the privileged class to shy away from soldiering. This trend, if reversed, can contribute much towards strategic culture and shared sense of national security.

The writer is former Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) officer and has authored books on strategic and military aspects. He is also an Associate Editor of Indian Defence Review magazine.

360 Degree Perspective of Growth

Eight sectors

Defence & Security Alert (DSA) partnered with more than three dozen other media organizations to bring the cream of India's industrial and business CEOs for a conclave of growth after the traumatic global events of the past year.

GIL 2009: India also provided participants access to specific trends and challenges of their industry as part of eight interactive concurrent think tanks covering the Automotive & Transportation, Aerospace & Defense, Electronics and Security, Power, Transmission and Distribution, Environment, Information and Communication Technologies, Chemicals and Materials and Healthcare sectors. GIL Global is a unique platform where senior executives across multiple industries can come to share and exchange in proven strategies and best practices that will continue to drive this, stated Anand Rangachary, Managing Director, South Asia and Middle East, Frost & Sullivan.

Shed hesitation It is perceived that Companies seem to be hesitating in moving ahead as they wait for further improvements in the global economy. However, Frost & Sullivan believes that the best CEOs are already planning how their businesses will take advantage of the growth opportunities presented by the rebound. This was one of the key topics of discussion at this year's GIL 2009: India - Growth, Innovation and Leadership: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on Corporate Growth. The Growth Partnership Company's flagship programme which leverages growth, innovation and leadership as the three core elements of a successful growth strategy. This year's annual programme took place on 23rd October 2009 at the Leela Palace Kempinski, Bangalore where CEOs along with their growth teams representing a pollination of cross industries throughout India came to share, engage and inspire fresh and innovative tools, tactics and strategies in driving growth. This year's keynote "The CEO's Perspective on Growth in a Complex Business Environment' delivered by Frost & Sullivan Chairman, David Frigstad said, "Now more than ever, CEOs need to continually maintain a 360 degree perspective of their industry to support their critical decision making."

Media partners Wall Street Journal was the - Official Newspaper Partner, Outlook Business - National Magazine Partner, Financial Chronicle - National Newspaper Partner and MyDigitalFC.com was the Online Media Partner. Other media partners included A&D India, A&S Magazine, Autocar Professional, Auto Monitor, BTQ, Connect World, ORM Xchange, Chemical World, Chemical Weekly, CIOL Online, Defence And Security Alert (DSA), Energetica India, E Health, Future Pharmaceuticals, Future Healthcare, India Safe, India Infrastructure, Indian Aviation, Meet the Boss, Modern Medicare, Network Computing, PowerLine, Pharmaquest, Progressive Investor, Kong Posh, Security Today, SEARCH, Sustainable Business.com, Security4 India, Security Bazaar, Tele.net, Water Digest.

analysis POLICING

Sankar Sen IPS (Retd)

Over the years, the role of police has radically changed from a law-and-order maintenance agency to a well-coordinated intelligence force providing security, protection and services to a democratic society. Yet, allegations are rife that our police force often fails to cope with tough challenges and mammoth responsibilities. Struggling against crippling limitations, the men in khaki are falling prey to the culture of corruption, partisan interests and inequality. But in spite of the apex court’s clear directives, it is our lack of political will that stymies effective reforms and attitudinal changes… 70

fter the 26/11 Mumbai carnage, the Prime Minister of India, Dr. Manmohan Singh, in his speech to the nation, emphasised that police reforms are absolutely necessary for addressing threats to national integrity. The country needs a professional police force that is not misused for partisan purposes and can ensure the basic security of Indian citizens. On the other hand, unprofessional and demoralised men in khaki will be an ineffective instrument for combating terror.

POLICE REFORMS:

A Categorical

Outmoded act, fettered existence

Imperative

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

The Police Act, 1861, which has so far governed the structure and administration of the Indian Police, was implemented in the wake of the Sepoy Mutiny in 1857. It was an imperial act essentially meant to promote and uphold the colonial agenda. But even after Independence, the political masters of the country allowed the antiquated act to continue. The control

mechanism of the British Raj not only survived but was strengthened and invigorated by the new political dispensation. The political parties and their leaders who came to power in the Centre and States found the police a convenient tool at their command to serve their interests. After tasting the real advantage of having the police at their beck and call, ruling parties had no real intention of initiating effective measures or ensuring muchneeded reforms. Consequently, the Indian police carried the old baggage of a hostile citizenry, servility to the establishment and an oppressive attitude towards the common man. The politicisation of the entire internal security system brought in its wake a wrong kind of leadership, pushing competent and honest officers into insignificant slots. The police became a tool in the process of subverting the rule of law, promoting the growth of authoritarianism (as witnessed during the emergency) and shaking the very foundation of democracy. As early as in 1959, the Kerala Police Reorganisation Committee had perceptively observed that "the greatest obstacle to efficient police administration flows from domination of party politics under the state administration and is often reflected in the lawless enforcement of laws, inferior service and in general decline of Police prestige." Although between 1947 and 1977 several states had appointed Police Commissions to examine the reform needs in the internal administration of the police with focus on key areas like training, pay, housing etc., none of them had examined the basic structure of the police force and its lawful role as an impartial agent of law beyond interference by politicians and other extraneous sources. Essential structural reforms of the Indian police had always been sidestepped.

Year 1977: Dawn of a new era It was only in 1977, for the first time after independence, the then Janata government at the Centre appointed the National Police Commission (NPC) to examine the matter in depth and recommend concrete measures to insulate the police from extraneous influence. Prompted by the severe strictures passed by the Shah Commission probing the illegal and illegitimate use of the police

by the politicians in power during the Emergency, the government found it mandatory to set up the NPC to examine critically various issues concerning misuse and abuse of the police by the powers-thatbe. The chairman of the Commission was Dharam Vira, a distinguished civil servant, who held some of the highest positions in the government. Some of the key structural reforms recommended by the NPC were: ● Insulating the investigation wing of the police from external political pressures with a view to ensuring freedom in the operational functions of police administration; ● To remove the Damocles' sword of transfer constantly dangling over the police chiefs and assure them of a statutory tenure after proper and careful selection. ● Constitution of a State Security Commission to help the State governments in effectively discharging their superintending responsibility under the framework of law. These key recommendations of the NPC were made to liberate the police from political manipulations. A host of other measures were also suggested to improve the organisation work and morale of the police force. The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) stepped in, too, in a bid to make things better. While roundly castigating the police for violation of human rights, the organisation, however, strongly endorsed the core recommendations of the NPC to insulate the police from extraneous pressures and influence. It also took the unique step of involving itself in the public interest litigation (PIL) filed by Prakash Singh, former Director General of Police (DGP), in the Supreme Court (SC) as early as in 1996 for the implementation of NPC recommendations. Those concerned gunned for a total facelift so that the police force might be freed from the stranglehold of the politicians by making it accountable to the laws of the land and Constitution of the country. The NHRC, in its affidavit before the apex court, referred to the doctrine of "constabulary independence" in the United Kingdom (UK) and endorsed the observations of the Royal Commission of Police (1962) and of Lord Denning regarding a constable's responsibility and answerability to law alone. NHRC felt that an efficient and honest police force is the "principal bulwark of the nation against violation of human rights." While the PIL was progressing in the SC,

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

analysis POLICING The country needs a professional police force that is not misused for partisan purposes and can ensure the basic security of Indian citizens. On the other hand, unprofessional and demoralised men in khaki will be an ineffective instrument for combating terror.

the government also appointed three committees to examine the issue of police reform - the Ribeiro Committee in 1998, the Padmanabhaiah Committee in 2000 and the Malimath Committee on Criminal Justice Reforms in 2002. All the committees unambiguously urged the need for police reforms and endorsed the key structural changes recommended by the NPC.

SCâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s road map for reforms The SC took note of the gravity of the problem and felt that there could not be any further wait as police reforms brooked no further delay. According to the apex court, the stage has come for issuance of appropriate directions for immediate compliance so as to be operative till a model Police Act is enacted by the Central Government. The seven-point Directive of the SC included a fixed tenure for at least two years for the State DGP unless promoted or removed on disciplinary grounds. The DGP will be selected from officers, who have been empanelled by the Union Public Service Commission (UPSC) for promotion to that rank. The chief minister will no longer be able to remove any inconvenient DGP at his sweet will and pick up a pliant officer of his choice. Police officers, on operational duties in the field like IGs in-charge of zones, DIGs incharge of the ranges, SPs in-charge of districts, SHOs of police stations, will also have a minimum tenure of two years. Currently, with the change of any political regime, these officers often face en masse transfer. But this kind of administrative manipulation on political ground causing unnecessary and avoidable dislocation would soon become a thing of the past. The court has also ordered that the investigating wing of the police will be separated from the law and order wing to ensure speedier investigation, better expertise and improved rapport with people. This will address the serious and persistent problem of poor and shoddy police investigations because of law and order maintenance and other miscellaneous commitments of police officers. This will also help in thorough and scientific investigation of criminal cases. The SC has also decreed setting up of a Police Establishment Board in each state to decide on transfers, postings and servicerelated matters of officers up to the rank of Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP). It

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

will comprise the DGP and four senior officers of the police department. The court has also asked the Centre to set up a National Security Commission (NSC) for selection and placements of the chiefs of central police organisations and also for upgrading the effectiveness of these forces and improving the service conditions of the staff. However, the cornerstone of police reforms directed by the apex court is the setting up of a new State Security Commissions in every state to ensure that the state government does not exercise unwarranted influence or pressure on the police. The State Security Commission shall be headed by the Chief Minister or the Home Minister. But the independence of the Commission has been sought to be ensured by the inclusion of the leader of the opposition, a retired or sitting judge and some eminent non-political citizens. It will also function as a forum of appeal for disposing of representations from police officers of the rank of Superintendent of Police (SP) and above regarding his being subjected to illegal or irregular orders in the performance of his duties. The Chief of Police will function as the ex-officio Secretary of the Commission. The apex court hopes that the Security Commission will be able to insulate the police from constant political pressures and influence. Moreover, to ensure that police autonomy matches its accountability, the court has ordered that a Police Complaints Authority (PCA) should be set up in every district, headed by a retired district judge, while the PCA at the state level should be led by a retired High Court or Supreme Court judge. It will inquire into allegations of serious misconduct by the police including custodial death, rape or grievous hurt. The PCA will have on its panel retired civil servants, police officers and members of the civil society. The SC has further ordered the state and central governments to file affidavits of compliance by January 3rd, 2007. This judgment of the SC is not only historic but will have a significant impact on the administration and image of the Indian police in the coming years and may usher in a new dawn for the Indian police.

What hinders the apex court's directives? Despite these unambiguous and clear directions to the states from the SC, implementation of the crucial police reform has proved to be an uphill task. The state governments are totally unwilling to

lose their stranglehold over the police. Initially, the state governments, one after another, filed petitions before the SC either seeking a review of some of the directives or asking for more time to implement the directives. On January 11, 2007, SC took note of the objections and concerns raised by the Central and state governments but ordered firmly that the process of police reforms must commence immediately. It did not find merit in the review petitions of the state governments and rejected them. However, even 27 months after the initial judgment of the SC and 16 months after dismissal of the review petitions filed by the state governments, the process of undertaking police reforms is not visible in most of the States. States like Gujarat, Nagaland, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka have questioned the need for a State Security Commission and brazenly stated that there is no unwarranted influence exercised over the police. In their opinion, setting up a State Security Commission with binding powers along with the leader of the opposition as one of the members is likely to undermine the power of a constitutionally established State over the State police. It will lead to the creation of a parallel body which is not accountable to the people. Some of the state governments have also argued that the fixed two-year tenure of the DGPs, irrespective of their superannuation date, will block promotion opportunities for other senior officers and, consequently, demoralise them. The directives will also take away the right of the State government to transfer police officers to meet administrative exigencies. In truth, Chief Ministers are now transferring police officers frequently and vindictively at their sweet will and they are unwilling to abdicate their power. The Andhra Pradesh government has objected to provide a fixed tenure to the DGP on the specious ground that "short tenure is not a drawback for efficient performance of duties." And when it comes to other ranks, transfer orders continue to be issued indiscriminately in gross violation of the SC's order on the subject. Many of the States also objected to the setting up of Police Establishment Boards as it is likely to duplicate the existing system and result in creation of separate power centres comprising bureaucrats who are not answerable to the people. Also, most of the States have not complied with the very important directive of the SC regarding the establishment of the Independent Police Complaints Authorities (PCS) at the State and district

levels to look into public complaints against the police misconduct including custodial deaths, rape in police custody and so on. The stand of the State governments is that a number of oversight bodies exist such as the NHRC and the State Human Rights Commission. The establishment of PCS will cause demoralisation of police personnel and adversely affect the working of the police. The Uttar Pradesh government has argued that a large number of complaints against the police are incorrect and unsubstantiated and hence, creation of PCS is not required. Nagaland maintains that the commission of excesses by the police is a rare occurrence. West Bengal has only partially complied with the directives of the SC. According to the state government, a drafting committee had been set up and the new police legislation was scheduled to be finalised by

March 2007. Till date, no draft has been introduced in the Legislative Assembly or posted in the public domain. The West Bengal government has also not furnished any information regarding the creation of the State Security Commission. Its complete silence on this issue can only be viewed as reluctance on the part of the state government to implement the directives of the apex court. It has also not furnished any information on steps taken to separate the law and order and investigation wings of the police.

Reform delayed is reform denied? As many as 12 States have enacted the new Police Acts, but the regulations passed

have diluted important provisions for systemic reforms stipulated by the SC. Some States have set up State Security Commissions but packed them with government functionaries to the exclusion of the leader of the opposition, academics, civil society representatives etc. The structural reforms proposed in these acts are cosmetic and not genuine and inclusive. Efforts have been made to dilute the directives of the apex court and maintain the status quo. The Government of India is also dragging its feet. In October, 2005, the Central government set up a Police Act Drafting Committee under the chairmanship of Soli Sorabjee. The committee submitted its Model Police Bill to the government in 2006. But even after a lapse of two years, the government has not introduced the draft bill in the Parliament. In the present state of affairs, the civil society has to play an important role. In view of the dogged resistance encountered from Central and State governments, building up of strong public pressure for police reforms is necessary. Unfortunately, our political masters want the old order to continue. Police reforms did not figure in the election manifestos of political parties in the country. However, these reforms brook no delay. The country needs an apolitical, efficient police force to take on the forces of disruption and destabilisation. Without meaningful reforms, a corrupt and demoralised police force beholden to their political masters will not be able to combat effectively the scourge of terrorism haunting the country. The present generation of police officers, in turn, will have to stand up to the pressures and blandishments, and prove that they no longer want to be a part of the ruler appointed police force but would like to serve as members of the police service that champions the democratic rights and aspirations of the people and at the same time remains accountable to law.

The writer is Senior Fellow Institute for Social Sciences. He served as Additional DG BSF, Director National Police Academy (NPA) and DG (Investigation) NHRC. He brought innovative changes in the training programmes for NPA officers, and sensitised the personnel of Indian police and para-military forces on human rights at NHRC. He is also a recipient of President's Police Medal for his distinguished services.

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

neighbour watch PIPELINE GEOPOLITICS

CHINA Within six years China has become the second largest importer of oil. It is guzzling oil to pump its economic growth and this is generating an energy security nationalism that is turning belligerent: The description of Jammu and Kashmir as a â&#x20AC;&#x153;separate Stateâ&#x20AC;? is because a pipeline is to bring Iranian oil and gas across the Karakoram Highway. The dams across the Brahmaputra could divert the river for comparatively cheaper hydroelectricity if prices spiral and supplies are threatened. India beware, competition could trigger conflict.

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

ENERGY SECURITY: GAME PLAN Dr Ravni Thakur

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

neighbour watch PIPELINE GEOPOLITICS

â&#x20AC;&#x153;

Central Asia is an important player here and China has secured this area against perceived American influence by setting up the SCO. Its intention is to set up direct gas pipelines from this region into China... envisages a 4000 km pipeline system at a cost of 1.2 billion Yuan which will link pipelines from Central Asia.

â&#x20AC;&#x153;

decade ago, China and India were not in the picture as serious economic players. Nor were they serious competitors for energy consumption the scenario has changed

A Today

dramatically. China's galloping economic growth over the last twenty years has put a strain not just on its environment but also on securing for the country its growing energy needs. Energy security essentially implies ensuring a continuous secure

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

supply of energy at affordable rates and China's energy security, although still largely dependent on its massive coal reserves, has become oil dependent. China became a net importer of oil since 2003 and is today the world's second

largest oil importer. China's energy demand for oil grew by 15 per cent almost annually and net imports rose by 50 per cent from 1995. A look at China's energy basket in 2008 shows that coal still makes up 60 per cent, oil 27 per cent, gas 6 per

cent, this too is expected to rise as China signs several deals with Russia, hydro power 3 per cent, nuclear power 3 per cent and this too is expected to rise progressively to 11 per cent since the Chinese are investing heavily in nuclear

plants. Today as UNCTAD points out, Oil is the biggest business in the world economy with an average trade of 1.7-2 trillion dollars per year. China too has entered this market with a vengeance and has put in place a comprehensive energy

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

neighbour watch PIPELINE GEOPOLITICS

â&#x20AC;&#x153;

China and India are already competing for stakes in oil fields all over the world and alas, India has been the loser. We are hampered by the lack of a large national company to compete with China. China can also outbid India at this level through its arms imports. China also does not have any compunction in supporting dictatorships across the world that can guarantee its energy security. Here Sudan is a case in point. China's spreading footprints in Africa too are related to the concerted focus of China on accessing energy and other sources to feed its people and ensure its continued economic growth.

â&#x20AC;&#x153;

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

security strategy. China is the new big player and will influence and shape future energy and geopolitical equations across the world.

Aggressive nationalism Overall, China's energy policies can be defined as Energy Security Nationalism. This strategy is different from its earlier strategy of selfsufficiency, or even of using its own oil reserves as a tool of diplomacy like it did with Japan to forestall Japan investing in Soviet Siberia. Instead today China attempts to leverage its economic and military strength to engage with the world in order to secure its own energy needs. China's need for energy security has led it to devise what can be called a Five Pronged Strategy. 1. Greater access to international oil reserves and control over available resources. 2. Greater cooperative energy diplomacy with other countries and joint ventures with large international oil majors. 3. Increased efficiency at home. Another important domestic strategy has been to limit subsidies to domestic consumers, instead of allowing the market to set prices. 4. The promotion and morphing of its large domestic oil companies into multinationals to make them internationally competitive bidders such as CNPC. 5. Diversification of energy sources such as wind, water and now nuclear energy. Let us first turn to the changing debate about energy security amongst Chinese specialists. China's Energy policy, once it started focusing on the needs of its growing economy since 1980, was one to stretch out across the world to ensure higher supplies instead of taming domestic consumption. It was a policy focused on the supply side. Here China used both diplomatic and trade channels to access oil exporting countries. Today, the Chinese government is also attempting to control internal consumption.

Long-term strategy The Chinese are long term planners, unlike the West, they do not think that oil is going to last but while it does, they want to control internal consumption, boost reserves and search for alternative energy. Another important aspect of internal dynamics is the organization of China's energy sector. Like in India, authority is divided among and within different agencies. At the apex, is the National Development and Reform Commission. NDRC is responsible for planning long term development and setting prices and approving FDI in the domestic sector. Since 2005, at the top of the pyramid of this structure is the Energy Leading Group, headed by the Prime Minister Wen Jiabao. Below this lies the NDRC that includes the Energy Bureau. The other Ministries represented are Ministry of Land and Resources which oversees the surveying and exploration for oil. The Ministry of Commerce issues licenses for imports and regulates investment in the oil sector by foreign firms. Then there is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that provides support to National Oil Companies through diplomacy in acquiring equity internationally in this sector. This structure was put in place after specialists complained about how multiplicity of organizations hampers effective decision making.

Oil goliaths The other significant actor on the energy stage are China's National Oil companies, who have a huge say in setting energy policy. These are CNPC and SINOPEC and they have been given Ministry level status, headed by a vice minister. They derive power from financial independence and profit making. The profit of these two corporations alone is 22 per cent of all corporate profits. So these are behemoths and often work for their own

profit as corporations. They are also huge employers. In 2005, Petro China had more than four hundred thousand employees as did Sinopec. Changes in China's organizational structure have now ensured that China's oil SOE's march across the world to compete with international oil corporations. As a senior cadre of SINOPEC Mike Qiu, said in an interview, "We have to learn to play in the world club". This world club is what determines China's external determinants. China, unlike India, has historically never played for small short term stakes. It has a clearly articulated long term strategic policy and is willing to use its growing economic and military strength to create a world order that will enhance its security in every way. China's energy security foreign policy engages the world at five levels. 1. An integrated Regional Policy known as Zhubian Zhengci or Good Neighbourhood Policy or Mulin Zhengci..These were both institutionalized by Deng Xiaoping and meant essentially disregarding both ideology and erstwhile Cold War politics of being anti-Soviet or anti-American. China has solved most of its border disputes and become the economic giant that propels Asian economies today. It has also reached out to the SE countries through forums such as APEC, ASEAN etc. 2. Improving relations with oil exporting countries especially in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and of course Central Asia and Russia. It is in this role that the Chinese MEA plays a lead role in terms of energy security. China has used trade and aid to secure a commanding position in this region. China realizes that its main competitor is the USA which has a huge and dominant presence in the Middle East. In 1995 the Persian Gulf and the Asia Pacific region supplied 90 per cent of China's oil. Of this Indonesia alone provided 31 per cent. In contrast, today we see the growth of imports from Sudan, Venezuela and Central Asia. Central Asia, especially Kazakhstan has been identified as a key supplier of gas.

Kazakstan-centric Central Asia is an important player here and China has secured this area against perceived American influence by setting up the SCO. Its intention is to set up direct gas pipelines from this region into China and create a West - East pipeline domestically. CNPC envisages a 4000-km pipeline system at cost of 1.2 billion Yuan which will link pipe lines from Central Asia to the Tarim

basin in the North West such as TurfanHaim and Junggai in Xinjiang and the needs of its vital economic regions in the SouthEast of the country. CNPC and Kazmunai Gaz of Kazakhstan have completed construction of pipelines in the eastern sector. This leg has the capacity to carry four hundred thousand bpd, links the oil fields in Aryan in Western Kazakhstan to Alashankou in Western China. In 2006, it delivered 200,000 bpd. However, the Persian Gulf will remain important and here, Iran and Saudi Arabia are China's strongest partners. China has been acquiring equity in all these regions and has made successful bids for joint exploration.

Eyeing Sudan These equity investments have enhanced China's energy security and China has not allowed international criticism of its position in Darfur to interfere with its objective to capture Sudanese oil. Similarly, it has disregarded international pressure on Iran and used its vote in the Security Council to block any US action against Iran. That is why, like the USA, China's policies can be called Energy Security Nationalism. The use of its expanding naval power to secure transport lanes for its oil or what Hu Jintao has dubbed the Malacca thesis that specifies the important control exercised by the United States navy over this region through which 15 per cent of the world's oil and especially oil destined for Asia passes. This region is thus of vital and geostrategic importance for more than one country. Securing the passage of its oil imports, is thus crucial for China. China has also been taking a hard stand on boundary disputes that might yield oil such as in the South China seas. This is particularly true for Vietnam and Japan. Here too, China links its energy security to national security. In the past decade, China has strengthened its position in terms of naval access to the region and by building ports in Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. It has repeatedly stated that the Indian Ocean does not belong to India.

4. Export of arms in exchange for oil. China's NORINCO has carried out such deals with Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Venezuela. 5. Setting in place massive oil reserves. China is currently also building oil reservoirs to stockpile oil reserves.

Implications for India Like China, India has also been a net importer of oil and its dependence is expected to rise progressively as the needs of economic growth for energy rise. Where energy is concerned, two major issues come to the fore. 1. China and India are already competing for stakes in oil fields all over the world and alas, India has been the loser. We are hampered by the lack of a large national company to compete with China. China can also outbid India at this level through its arms imports. China also does not have any compunction in supporting dictatorships across the world that can guarantee its energy security. Here Sudan is a case in point. China's spreading footprints in Africa too are related to the concerted focus of China on accessing energy and other sources to feed its people and ensure its continued economic growth. 2. The impact of China's growing presence as a naval power will also impact India as China builds and invests in Indian Ocean countries. Myanmar and Pakistan have already ceded port and harbour space to China. India has fortunately taken a more proactive role where the Maldives is concerned. These factors have direct implications for India and India will need to devise strategies like China to ensure the security of its maritime borders and for its energy security. We need to also follow a more pro-active policy that allows us to compete. The nuclear deal recently negotiated should allow us to diversify our dependence on fuel. India is also negotiating for gas pipelines with Turkey and Iran. China is following a comprehensive energy policy and is certainly better placed than India to handle any energy crisis that it may face. In the past we have cooperated with China and both countries must hope that competition for scarce energy sources will not lead to conflict.

Dr. Ravni Thakur is Reader for Chinese Studies at Delhi University and Director of the Euro-Asia Institute, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi.

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

security tips WOMEN ALERTED

safe and secure indoors They may say, there is no place like home, however we cannot overlook the fact, crime can happen anytime and anywhere. Just a little caution and prudence on your part can save you from being a victim. Here are simple do's and don'ts to make you feel safe and secure indoors.

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Interact with neighbours so that you remain in touch with surroundings. Always check the identity of servants / maids / housekeepers before employing them. Register their details at the local police station for verification. Install a peep-hole or a door chain and check who is at the door before letting anyone in.

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D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

IF YOU LIVE ALONE, DO NOT ADVERTISE THE FACT.

Do not let milkman, drycleaner, flower delivery boy, newspaper or courier delivery boy inside your flat or house. Try that they leave things with guard or take delivery at gate only.

Always check you have locked your main door / balcony door before going to sleep.

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If you stay on ground floor or apartment, try to install iron fence around galleries so that no one can jump inside. Try to avoid keeping jewellery, valuable things or much cash at home. It can attract attention of inhouse servants along with outside attention as well.

Keep your financial arrangements private, and be aware of who is present while discussing these things.

phone by your bed or keep mobile nearby so 10 Install that you can seek help at the time of emergency.

Avoid calling anyone for repairs when alone or during the time when your neighbours are on work or out of home.

RESTRAIN YOUR KIDS TO GET TOO FRIENDLY WITH OUTSIDERS.

Learn self defence techniques like martial arts to defend yourself in the event of attack.

In case an intruder breaks-in while you're home, you should have a safe room in the house to which you can retreat. Such a room should be equipped with a strong door, deadbolt lock, phone (preferably cell phone), and a can of pepper spray or fire extinguisher.

IF YOU ARRIVE HOME AND FIND YOUR DOOR OPEN, DO NOT GO INSIDE. CALL THE POLICE OR YOUR NEIGHBOUR'S HOUSE AND ASK THEM TO MEET YOU.

IF A STRANGER WANTS TO USE YOUR PHONE FOR BUSINESS OR EMERGENCY PURPOSE, DO NOT LET HIM IN. KEEP HIM OUT AND YOU MAKE THE CALL FOR HIM / HER.

November 2009 D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T

cartoon/jokes cartoon SPOT

jokes of the month

navy man walks into a bar, gives the bartender a conspiratorial wink and says, "Quick, pour me a drink, before the trouble starts." The bartender pours a drink and watches as the sailor downs it in one gulp. The sailor slams the glass down on the bar and says, "Quick, give me another one before the trouble starts." The bartender pours another glass and the sailor drinks it as quickly as he had the first. The sailor pauses, lets out a belch and demands a third drink 'before the trouble starts.' After several rounds of this, the bartender says, "Look sailor, you have been talking about trouble for ten minutes. When is this 'trouble' going to start?" The sailor looks at the bartender and grins, "The trouble starts just as soon as you figure out that I don't have any money!"

aving passed the enlistment physical, Raman was asked by the doctor, "Why do you want to join the Navy, son?" "My father said it'd be a good idea, Sir." "Oh? And what does your father do?" "He's in the Army, Sir."

UDGE: Please identify yourself for the record. Defendant: Colonel Joginder Singh. Judge: What does the "Colonel" stand for? Defendant: Well, it's like the "Honourable" attached to your name. Not a damn thing!

D E F E N C E & S E C U R I T Y A L E R T November 2009

Pakistani army soldier walks into his officer's room. To impress him, the army officer picks the phone, dials a number and says, "Yes sir, I understand sir. I will tell the Prime Minister. Goodbye." Looking at the soldier he barked "What do you want?" "Nothing sir" he replied "I just came to install your telephone!"