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The Facilities Planning “Tipping Point”: Predicting when enrolment decline will change to enrolment growth

BY HUGH SKINNER, FACILITY PLANNER, STANTEC CONSULTING LTD.

Most British Columbia school districts have experienced enrolment decline over the past ten years. There is a degree of uncertainty about when enrolment declines will level out, or increase, in the future. Future enrolment uncertainty is also creating indecision on predicting the number of schools that will be required in the future, and the capacity of schools. Tipping points are "the levels at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable.” The “Tipping Point,” a term from the award winning Malcolm Gladwell book of the same title, “...is that dramatic moment when little causes drive the unexpected to become expected and propel the idea of

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This paper reviews historical enrolment trends and recommends strategies for determining the enrolment “Tipping Point” and more assurance of future enrolments for facilities capital planning.

Historical British Columbia Enrolment Trends

British Columbia’s school age enrolment peaked in 1997 at 608,000 students. The provincial school age enrolment has been declining ever since. The B.C. school age enrolment as of September 2006 was 561,000 students, a decline of 47,000 students over the past

ERV PARENT GROUP 791 Caldew Street, Delta, BC, V3M 5S3 Tel: 604-525-4142 Fax: 604-525-3777 www.ervparent.com ten years. A further decline of 4,800 students occurred between December 2006 and December 2007. Forty-nine of British Columbia’s 60 school districts experienced enrolment decline between 2006 and 2007.

However, there have been significant differences in enrolment decline between the elementary and secondary grade levels. Almost the entire provincial enrolment decline between 1997 and 2006 occurred at the elementary level. Enrolment declined from 360,000 to 315,000, a decline of 45,000 students.

Projected Enrolment

The differences in enrolment decline between elementary and secondary grades indicate that different trends are occurring. A key variable is the number of births that have occurred historically and how these trends are changing.

BIRTHS

The number of births increased dramatically over a ten year period from 1986 to 1996. The number of births increased from 42,000 in 1986, to 47,600 in 1996. Much of the enrolment growth that occurred in the 1980s and throughout the 1990s is attributable to the

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increasing number of births, as well as strong in-migration of residents from other provinces and from overseas. The increasing number of births between 1986 and 1996 was largely related to the so-called “baby boom” generation being in their prime child rearing ages.

Starting in 1997, the number of births started to decrease. The number of births continued to decrease to 2002 when the number was 39,700, a decrease of 7,900 births from the 1996 peak. The decreasing number of births was largely related to a small number of adults being in the prime child rearing ages plus a relatively weak economic period when there was some out-migration of population to other provinces, notably Alberta.

However, since 2002, the number of births has started to increase. The number has increased from 39,700 in 2002 to 42,300 in 2007, a very significant increase of 2,600. The increases are attributable to the children of the baby boom generation starting to reach child rearing age and strong in-migration of adults due to a relatively strong economy. The number of births is projected to continue to be strong for the next several years and then level out at a relatively constant number.

The year 2002 is the “Tipping Point” year in the number of births. The trend from declining births, to increasing births, has profound implications on projected school district enrolments. The birth trends will start significantly impacting Kindergarten enrolments in 2007.

ELEMENTARY

Elementary enrolments are defined as the school age enrolment in kindergarten to grade seven. British Columbia elementary enrolments grew throughout the 1980s and the 1990s, peaking at 360,000 students in 1997. The elementary enrolments have declined since 1997. The elementary enrolment in 2006 was 315,000, a decline of 45,000 students since 1997. The British Columbia elementary enrolments are projected to continue to decline until 2010 or 2011, when the elementary enrolment is projected to be 298,000 students, a further

decline of 17,000 elementary students. Elemen tary enrolments are projected to increase after 2011.

The year 2010 or 2011 is projected to be the “Tipping Point” year in provincial elementary enrolments, when the result of increasing births from 2002 and the ensuing influx of enrolment on a year to year basis, will offset the enrolment numbers moving from grade seven to grade eight and the secondary schools.

SECONDARY

Secondary enrolments are defined as the school age enrolment in grades eight to 12. British Columbia secondary enrolments grew throughout the 1980s and the 1990s, peaking at 251,000 students in 1998. While secondary enrolments have declined to 246,000 in 2006, a decline of 5,000, it is noteworthy that the enrolment decline has been small relative to the elementary enrolment decrease of 45,000 over the same time period. However, provincial secondary enrolments are projected to decline to 217,000, a further decline of 29,000 secondary students, over the next ten years, primarily due to smaller incoming grade eight enrolments from the elementary level.

Secondary enrolments are not projected to stop decreasing until 2016, when secondary enrolments will start increasing again. In summary, 2016 is projected to be the “Tipping Point” year in provincial secondary enrolments, when the result of increasing births from 2002 and the ensuing influx of enrolment on a year to year basis from grade seven elementary enrolments, will offset the larger grade 12 enrolment numbers.

Changing Enrolments and Capital Planning Implications

Declining elementary enrolments have caused many school districts to consider, and to undertake, elementary school closures. School districts will now face a different elementary enrolment environment when considering facility renewal and capital planning. School districts should use the changing elementary enrolment trends to reevaluate how many elementary schools will be required within a defined geographic area.

Conversely, secondary school enrolments are projected to decline over the next ten years, and the number and size of existing secondary schools will have to be reconsidered.

Summary and Conclusions

Declining elementary enrolments are about to change in British Columbia. While elementary enrolment change will vary on a district-by-district basis, the year 2010, or 2011, is projected to be the “Tipping Point” year in provincial elementary enrolments, when the result of increasing births from 2002, and the ensuing influx of enrolment on a year to year basis, are projected to increase.

School districts should use the changing elementary enrolment trends to reevaluate how many elementary schools will be required within a defined geographic area. ❏

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