THE FACILITIES PLANNING “TIPPING POINT”:
Predicting when enrolment decline will change to enrolment growth BY HUGH SKINNER, FACILITY PLANNER, STANTEC CONSULTING LTD.
Most British Columbia school districts have experienced enrolment decline over the past ten years. There is a degree of uncertainty about when enrolment declines will level out, or increase, in the future. Future enrolment uncertainty is also creating indecision on predicting the number of schools that will be required in the future, and the capacity of schools. Tipping points are "the levels at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable.” The “Tipping Point,” a term from the award winning Malcolm Gladwell book of the same title, “...is that dramatic moment when little causes drive the unexpected to become expected and propel the idea of
radical change to certain acceptance.” This paper reviews historical enrolment trends and recommends strategies for determining the enrolment “Tipping Point” and more assurance of future enrolments for facilities capital planning. Historical British Columbia Enrolment Trends British Columbia’s school age enrolment peaked in 1997 at 608,000 students. The provincial school age enrolment has been declining ever since. The B.C. school age enrolment as of September 2006 was 561,000 students, a decline of 47,000 students over the past
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ten years. A further decline of 4,800 students occurred between December 2006 and December 2007. Forty-nine of British Columbia’s 60 school districts experienced enrolment decline between 2006 and 2007. However, there have been significant differences in enrolment decline between the elementary and secondary grade levels. Almost the entire provincial enrolment decline between 1997 and 2006 occurred at the elementary level. Enrolment declined from 360,000 to 315,000, a decline of 45,000 students. Projected Enrolment The differences in enrolment decline between elementary and secondary grades indicate that different trends are occurring. A key variable is the number of births that have occurred historically and how these trends are changing. BIRTHS The number of births increased dramatically over a ten year period from 1986 to 1996. The number of births increased from 42,000 in 1986, to 47,600 in 1996. Much of the enrolment growth that occurred in the 1980s and throughout the 1990s is attributable to the
