The DePaulia 11/7

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DePaulia

The

Volume #107 | Issue #8 | Nov. 7, 2022 | depauliaonline.com

NECK & NECK As polls narrow, Democrats are fighting to retain control of Senate

Senate polls in key states

MAYA OCLASSEN | THE DEPAULIA

By Erik Uebelacker Editor-in-Chief

With Republicans likely to win back control of the House of Representatives, hopeful Democrats have turned their attention to the Senate, which is still a tossup just one day before the midterm elections. The GOP appears to be gaining momentum at just the right time. Polls and forecasts suggest Republicans have approximately a 54% chance of winning the Senate; their best odds since July. This trend is not a surprising one, as the controlling party tends to lose seats in both chambers of Congress come the midterm elections. “Every midterm election since World War II, on average, the president’s party has lost 26 House seats [and four in the Senate],” DePaul political journalism professor Chris Bury told The DePaulia. “The dynamic is that there is always some pushback against the party in power, and the opposing party can do a pretty easy job of communicating that whatever the problems of the country are, they can be blamed on the president.”

Considering the Democrats won the House, the Senate and the presidency in 2020, this made it even easier for the GOP to advocate for a change in leadership. “We’re seeing that directly with gas prices and inflation, both of which are largely beyond the president’s control,” Bury said. “That doesn’t matter. In politics, it’s Biden’s fault.” Even with the GOP favored to win the House and slightly favored in the Senate, current polling suggests that Republican gains in both chambers would be modest by the standards of other midterm elections. Barring extreme polling errors, a “red wave” the likes of 2010 or 2014 is looking unlikely. Current forecasts indicate that control of the Senate will likely come down to four key races: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. If this is the case, Democrats have an uphill battle. They will have to win three of these four races in order to retain the Senate’s control, while Republicans need just two of those races to go their way. “It’s interesting that some of these Senate races where it seems to be the closest are in the states that Biden did win,” said

Lucy Moog, Democratic activist and committeeman of Chicago’s 43rd Ward. “The Democrats have some really good candidates in these places who are generally moderate, thoughtful, while the Republicans have some of these extreme candidates who are election deniers.” Two of these races feature Republican candidates who are complete political outsiders. Television presenter Mehmet Oz, better known by his TV alias “Dr. Oz,” is running in Pennsylvania, while former NFL running back Herschel Walker is doing so in Georgia. Both candidates were endorsed by former president Donald Trump. “They’ve never worked in government,” Moog said. “They’ve had incredible careers and are celebrities in their own realm. But have they ever worked on inflation? Do they know anything about prescription drugs and trying to reduce costs?” The races in Pennsylvania and Georgia also happen to be the closest contested, with polls from each falling within the margin of error.

See SENATE, page 11

GOP’s ineffective strategy strengthens Pritzker lead By Amber Stoutenborough Multimedia Managing Editor

Poll data from New York Times/Siena College polls in four states between Oct. 19 to Oct. 27. ERIK UEBELACKER | THE DEPAULIA

As tomorrow’s election day swiftly approaches, the Illinois gubernatorial race is coming to a close. Republican challenger Darren Bailey’s best efforts to recruit independent voters has fallen short behind Democratic incumbent Governor J.B. Pritzker, who now leads by 13.5 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. Many feel any turn around from either party is not possible so close to the election. “Thirteen points is a pretty big deficit to overcome, particularly this close to the election, and that might also explain why we’re seeing more desperation moves, if

you will, correctly, so these fake newspapers are targeting counties around the Chicagoland area,” said Jeff Blevins, a journalism and public affairs professor at Cincinnati University. “We know offhand you might assume that he probably has a lot of support from southern from central Illinois. But Chicago, the urban area, just has so much population that tends to lead Democrats, so [Bailey is] probably not going to win.” Bailey still has a strong following among the rest of Illinois with his reputation as a working class ally. While most of Bailey’s following is among the rest of Illinois outside of Cook County, there are some outliers.

See GOVERNOR, page 5

INSIDE: 2022-23 Basketball Issue


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