Jon Mirmelli | November 2022 | Digital Newsletter

JON MIRMELLI REAL ESTATE GROUP

MARKET UPDATE

November 2022

Coming Soon

Carefree Fore More

8402 E CAREFREE DR | Carefree, AZ 85377 $2,395,000 - See back page for details.

E GROU AT

Jon Mirmelli 602.300.1900

JM

AL ES T RE

PRESENTED BY

JON M MELLI IR

P

A

ctive listings continue to arrive at slower pace and sales activity cools:

As of 10/18 there were 16,746 active and coming soon listings in our MLS system in Maricopa County, an increase of 4.3% over the past 30 days, 5,595 homes were under contract, a 13.7% decrease over the same period and closed sales fell to 4,737, down 5.8%. The numbers may seem alarming with the slowdown in sales that started shifting in the 3rd quarter of 2022, but the chart to the right tells a different story. Even with the slowdown in sales, monthly volume stands at $3.42 billion, which is the 3rd highest total for week 42, beaten only by the frenzy of 2020 and 2021.

Interest rates continue to rise: Over the past 30 days interest rates have risen almost a full percentage point and top credit conventional loans are roughly at 7%, a 16% increase over the previous 30 days. Buyers and sellers are frustrated with the increased mortgage costs. The rises in rates are benefiting cash buyers the most with more homes to choose from than in years past and less competition. Another factor helping buyers is the slowdown of purchase activity from ibuyers (Opendoor, Offer Pad, rental hedge funds, etc.). As of 10/18, Opendoor and Offer Pad stocks are down 90% over their 52 week highs. The numbers suggest that when Zillow stopped buying homes both of these firms doubled down and purchased too many new homes in the 2nd quarter of 2022 just as the mortgage rates starting rising rapidly. These firms target homes primarily priced in the $500,000 +/-price range or less and the values in this price range are getting hit the hardest with buyers relying on higher leverage from mortgages.

Key dates coming in the 4th Quarter of 2022: Inflation numbers don’t seem to be getting relief and the Federal Reserve has two more monetary policy meetings in 2022, November 2nd and December 14th. Most “experts” are predicting another 75 basis point increase to the Fed Funds rate on November 2nd. Mortgage brokers have been saying that the anticipated rate increase is already factored into rates currently being quoted, but we’ve heard that a few times over the last several months. The 2nd week of November and December will release the prior month consumer price index numbers. Without a change of path from the Fed and if the inflation rate still hangs around 8% it is likely that mortgage rates will continue to rise.

On November 8th our Country will have the mid-term elections. Historically, stocks have underperformed during the 12 months leading up to the miderm elections and have outperformed during the 12 months after the midterm. I think everyone hopes history will repeat itself after the elections because it hasn’t been fun looking at your 2022 investment results.

We have some very nice listings coming up in the next few weeks and the past 30 days have been very busy working with buyers that have been on the sidelines waiting for more inventory to select from.

Please call on us if you would like to review your current home value and/or if you want to consider a new purchase. We appreciate your trust and your referrals

Thank you, Jon Mirmelli & Rebecca Ponte

8/17/22 – 9/17/22

VS. OCT 2022 9/17/22 – 10/17/22

# OF CLOSED LISTINGS

CAVE CREEK/CAREFREE` 85331

54

SCOTTSDALE 85266

HOMES RECENTLY SOLD

SEP 2022

ZIP

85262

19

29

43

23

16

JM

PRESENTED BY

Jon Mirmelli Real Estate Group

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE $937,279

AVERAGE SALE/ LIST PRICE

$ 870,184

$1,523,854

$1,867,549

98%

$1,604,003

95%

$1,517,708

94%

97% 99%

99%

AL ES T RE

CLOSED

E GROU AT

MARKET WATCH

AVERAGE $/SQFT $365.91 $434.60

$474.00

JON M MELLI IR

P

AVERAGE DOM

$357.81 $458.21

$513.65

56

65

48

49

91

71

85255 85254 85260 85259 85258 85250 85251 85257

63 77 59 44 42 43 75 34

64 75 43 29 41 28 50 26

$1,682,105 $945,709 $887,012 $1,180,581 $940,671 $686,326 $745,210 $541,162

$1,438,745 $897,832 $1,023,986 $1,025,534 $998,922 $610,554 $658,818 $528,031

97% 97% 97% 97% 96% 97% 97% 95%

96% 97% 97% 96% 97% 97% 97% 95%

$474.48 $387.62 $396.58 $427.96 $433.10 $407.12 $429.00 $349.17

$476.42 $376.79 $414.74 $380.01 $455.97 $408.22 $416.83 $335.38

59 45 42 48 50 40 51 45

63 44 54 56 55 48 54 45

85268

47

41

$899,231

$977,759

98%

97%

$367.28

$366.65

49

67

85253

28

21

$3,473,679

$2,649,224

92%

96%

$632.10

$594.75

71

83

85028 85016 85018

32 52 44

22 42 44

$835,007 $667,886 $1,062,623

$718,132 $604,659 $1,143,034

98% 96% 96%

96% 98% 94%

$366.42 $365.04 $444.03

$368.03 $348.64 $462.99

45 50 45

55 64 54

FOUNTAIN HILLS PARADISE VALLEY

PHOENIX/ARCADIA/BILTMORE

ZIP CODE MAP

43

SCOTTSDALE

16

23

homes closed

homes closed

homes closed

64

homes closed

75

homes closed

43

homes closed

29

homes closed

41

22

homes closed

homes closed

21

homes closed

42

homes closed

41

homes closed

28

homes closed

44

homes closed

50

homes closed

26

homes closed

The properties on this list have been listed/sold by various members of the MLS. If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

Data reported is based upon sales information provided by the MLS as of Oct. 17, 2022. Data deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Each office is independently owned and operated.

LISTED

MARKET

WATCH

PRESENTED BY

Jon Mirmelli Real Estate Group

Jon Mirmelli Real Estate Group - Active, Pending, Closed

Need help selling your existing home or looking to buy? Please call Jon today! Referrals always appreciated.

COMING

SOON

8402 E CAREFREE DR | Carefree, AZ 85377 4 Beds | 5 Baths | 5,940 SQFT | $2,395,000

Carefree Fore More

S

tunning sunsets and mountain views on this private Acre+ lot with just under 6,000 sq.ft. 4BD/5BA with lots of large window views and an outdoor living experience that captures the fantastic sunsets with a mountain view backdrop. All bedrooms have ensuite bathrooms. Recently remodeled with custom finishes and design features and new owner improvements to pool area, landscaping, HVAC, roof and owned solar panels.

This block construction home offers great energy efficiency and multiple living areas for entertaining, working from home, home gym area or space for lots of storage. All this with the serenity and peacefulness of the Sonoran desert. No HOA fees and low property taxes. New photos coming soon as owner is preparing for out-of-state relocation.

If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

E GROU AT

JON M

JM

AL ES T RE

Rebecca Ponte | 602.390.7096

P

MELLI IR

Jon Mirmelli Real Estate Group

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