Gayle Henderson Presents
2009 Metro Phoenix Economic Snapshot As I write to all of you about the state of our current housing market and what we may be facing in upcoming months and perhaps years ahead, I am reminded of an often-used quote that “knowledge is power and the application of that knowledge is empowering.” As of this date, we know that our home prices valley-wide have plummeted nearly 40% in this past year which matches the spike we experienced in 2005. One can only wonder if we have hit bottom and can foresee an increase in values and sales in upcoming months. If that were the only factor to consider, the answer might be a probable “yes.” However, there are other factors we need to take into consideration as all of us make our financial plans going forward. Job growth, which has long been held as one of the key indicators impacting housing, has exceeded 3% annually for the past 15 years. When we surface from this economic crisis, the Southwest will return to strong population and job growth for the sheer fact of the availability of land. Our present job growth rate, however, is a -2%. Currently, according to RL Brown, one of the foremost housing experts in Arizona, “It is difficult to find areas of the Valley from Pinal to Peoria where any new construction occurs.” Recently some parallels were drawn between what we are seeing today in the financial and housing sectors with the “crash of the 80s” and the S & L crisis. It is important to note that one striking difference is that the center of the 80s’ crash was commercial real estate which affected far fewer people than today’s crisis centered in the housing market. As many of the major markets nationwide experience shrinking home sales, homeowners relocating to Arizona are either forced to cancel, delay or rent as they wait for their homes to sell in their previous locations. Lending guidelines have tightened and “creative” loans have disappeared. With over half of the active inventory comprised of short sales and foreclosures, and 80% of current closings from those same two categories, only serious sellers who understand the dynamics of the current market will succeed. Although today’s sales are not as profitable as in recent years, the opportunity to buy and finance a home at an unprecedented value more than makes up for the profit loss on the sale. For those who continue to try to time “the bottom” of the market most surely will miss one of the best buying markets in recent history.
2008 Average Sales Price By City Glendale: $195,947 Mesa: $207,806 Peoria: $242,251 Litchfield Park: $254,267 Gilbert: $268,258 Tempe: $260,365 Chandler: $278,036 Cave Creek: $464,659 Fountain Hills: $474,747 Scottsdale: $562,774 Carefree: $799,752 Paradise Valley: $1,979,803 Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family and Multi-Family Residences)
2008 Sales Statistics By Community Community
Average Sales Price
Days On Market
List/Sell Price Ratio
# Closed
Ancala.........................................$1,225,000.................. 213.................... 92............................10 Bellasera.........................................$661,470.................. 146.................... 92............................17 Boulders.......................................$1,067,794.................. 166.................... 93............................17 DC Ranch......................................$965,484.................. 163.................... 94............................91 Desert Highlands........................$1,867,388.................. 288.................... 84............................18 Desert Mountain.........................$2,227,782.................. 224.................... 90............................59 Desert Summit................................$958,286.................. 242.................... 92.............................7 Eagle Mountain.............................$746,444.................. 157.................... 92............................17 Estancia.......................................$3,061,062.................. 483.................... 88.............................8 FireRock.......................................$2,050,500.................. 261.................... 89............................20 Gainey Ranch............................$1,119,170.................. 139.................... 93............................17 Grayhawk......................................$677,914.................. 165.................... 94............................93 Ironwood Village...........................$526,824.................. 125.................... 95............................17 Legend Trail....................................$701,597.................. 212.................... 94............................44 McCormick Ranch........................$585,791.................. 153.................... 94............................25 McDowell Mountain Ranch.........$609,694.................. 150.................... 95...........................159 Mirabel Club...............................$2,335,625.................. 250.................... 93.............................8 Pinnacle Peak.............................$1,164,195.................. 213................... 87...........................38 Scottsdale Mountain....................$862,869.................. 213.................... 93............................27 Scottsdale Ranch..........................$650,525.................. 161.................... 94............................48 Sincuidados................................$1,140,000.................. 203.................... 96.............................8 Silverleaf......................................$3,079,135.................. 288.................... 89............................22 Stonegate......................................$648,060.................. 153.................... 95............................31 Terravita..........................................$603,848.................. 137.................... 96............................56 Troon North.....................................$840,540.................. 199.................... 91............................60 Troon Village..................................$926,901.................. 209.................... 93............................52 Whisper Rock..............................$3,050,364.................. 332.................... 94............................12 Winfield...........................................$551,688.................. 171.................... 92............................12
Produced by Desert Lifestyle Publishing • 480.460.0996
ABR • CRS • GRI • e-Pro • CLHMS • CDPE RE/MAX Excalibur 8510 E. Shea Blvd. #100 • Scottsdale, AZ 85260 602.850.4335 • gayle@AZMovingPlan.com
AZMovingPlan.com Henderson consistently ranks among the top ten individual RE/MAX agents in Arizona and is a recipient of the Business Journal Real Estate Leadership Award for 2005. Her charitable works include Habitat for Humanity, Children’s Miracle Network and the Susan G. Komen Foundation. If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing. We’re Fair Housing Providers
P H O E N I X
Phoenix: $212,623
Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences)
THE GAYLE HENDERSON GROUP
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