City of London Corporation
Economic Development Research Programme REVIEW
Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015
1 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015
Introduction City of London research is commissioned to be independent,
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, our 2015 City of London
accurate and evidence-based. Our intention is to inform and
Economic Development Research Programme aims not simply
support practitioners and policymakers both inside and outside
to respond to developments but to shape and drive the debate
the City of London Corporation, often working in partnership with
around many of the big issues that impact the City of London,
others including relevant trade associations. The research, the
London as a whole, and the wider UK.
product of an active engagement with our stakeholders and collaborators, looks at the performance trends that affect the
As in previous years, we have a number of different publications.
City, London and the UK’s success as a competitive provider of
Our ‘Research Reports’ address an overarching research theme
professional and financial services to the global economy.
or set of issues in depth, generally involving new primary research or substantial review; ‘Policy Practitioner Papers’ focus on
2015 continued to represent uncertain times for the world’s
technical subjects of particular interest to practitioners in industry
economy. While the US Federal Reserve finally put up interest
sectors; ‘Secondary Research Briefing Papers’ are short pieces
rates for the first time, China’s slowing growth has generated
based on secondary research and addressing a topical issue. Our
global ripples of concern. A plunging oil price, although great
‘Periodical Research’ provides a look ahead at the economic
news for motorists and energy users, is exerting huge pressures
outlook for the whole of London, in addition to a detailed look at
on those countries that depend on oil revenues to support
the City of London and Central London economies.
their economies. In comparison to other European nations, notably France and Italy, the UK is performing strongly, with positive economic growth, almost zero inflation and unemployment now falling below pre-recession levels. Storm clouds on the horizon though, include a possible UK exit from the European Union, with a referendum on 23rd June 2016, and stubbornly high levels of debt, as well as a continuing mismatch between the services and manufacturing sectors of the economy.
2 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015
3 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015
Key Areas THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH PROGRAMME FOR 2015: City Industries Competitiveness and Infrastructure International Markets, EU and Regulation Corporate Responsibility and Community
4 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015
City Industries
Competitiveness and Infrastructure
The Changing Face of the City of London notes that the City is
How important is the quality of the workplace when it comes to
expected to add 15,000 new jobs over the next two years, driving
retaining highly skilled staff as well as maximising productivity?
the trend for larger buildings. More than three quarters (79%) of
Future Workstyles and Future Workplaces in the City of London
the space currently under construction in the City (EC1-4) is over
examines how the City can remain a world leading location
100,000 sq ft.
for businesses and workers over the next ten years, with a focus on the direction in which working practices and workplaces
This trend is considered in The Future of the City of London’s
will evolve namely: flexibility and adaptability; choice and
Economy, which suggests that the City’s growth rate will
experience; agility and connectivity, and permeability.
accelerate, pulling further away from both Greater London and the UK as a whole. As a result the Treasury can expect an
Good transport links will play a key part in London’s appeal
increased tax take. According to the Total Tax Contribution of UK
to businesses. The Impact of Crossrail reports how Crossrail will
Financial Services (Eighth Edition), the UK financial services sector
bring 1.5 million more people within a 45 minute commute of
contributed an estimated £66.5bn in tax in the year to 31 March
the City, the West End and Canary Wharf, and will bring a
2015 – 11% of total UK Government tax receipts.
range of economic benefits, as well as having a positive impact on the property and retail market around Crossrail stations along the route.
Publications 2015 a The Changing Face of the City of London a The Future of the City of London’s Economy a Total Tax Contribution of UK Financial Services (Eighth Edition)
London’s competitiveness also depends on how it responds to the growing use of the internet and technology to commit economic crime. The Implications of Economic Cybercrime for Policing assesses the rising role of the internet in economic crime, its impact on individuals, businesses and government entities, and the implications for effective policing.
Publications 2015 aF uture Workstyles and Future Workplaces in the City of London aT he Impact of Crossrail aT he Implications of Economic Cybercrime for Policing
5 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015
International Markets, EU and Regulation
Corporate Responsibility and Community
The EU’s financial services sector contributed 5.9% of EU-27 gross
Despite London’s comparative affluence, there is still poverty and
value added (GVA) in 2013 . However, Where Next Europe: the
deprivation in the capital and this is examined in Deprivation in
Future of European Financial Services points out that the future is
London. However, economic inactivity rates have fallen in the
uncertain, particularly in the face of regulatory initiatives such as
three years to June 2014, as has unemployment and London
bank structural reforms and the financial transaction tax. It also
scores well at 16.1% of households out of work against the UK
warns financial services firms to avoid excessive focus on cost
average of 17.2%. Housing costs continue to create difficulties,
reduction, short term performance recovery, risk management
with less than 10% of available properties affordable to a single
and regulatory compliance.
person on average wages.
China will undoubtedly have a growing impact on the EU
Access to healthcare for City workers also continues to be an
financial services sector and not least due to the continued
issue. Mapping Public and Private Healthcare Provision in the City
growth of its currency on the world stage. London RMB Business
finds that more than half (59%) of City of London workers would
Volumes 2014 reports that China’s renminbi (RMB) has moved into
have liked to access healthcare services in the City but were
the top five global payments currencies. London was able to take
unable to. Much of the gap in provision relates to GP
advantage of the RMB’s growing popularity by positioning itself as
appointments.
a global centre for RMB business. Aside from social infrastructure, London can also play a role in The Impact of Global Regulatory Change on India’s Financial
encouraging and developing social impact investment. In
Markets examines how regulations such as Basel III and the
Developing a Global Financial Centre for Social Impact
Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act are perceived on the
Investment London is confirmed as being at the forefront of
ground in India. Worldwide Currency Usage and Trends notes
driving change for social impact investment but there is a
that, despite its growing prominence, India’s rupee is not yet
reminder that it must do more in terms of focusing on the creation
challenging the most important currencies used in international
of a supportive regulatory environment, as well as the
trade. Currently the US dollar, the euro, and the British pound
development of an appropriate skills base.
occupy the top three positions.
Publications 2015 a Where Next Europe: the Future of European Financial Services a London RMB Business Volumes 2014 a The Impact of Global regulatory Change on India’s Financial Markets a Worldwide Currency Usage and Trends
Publications 2015 a Deprivation in London aM apping Public and Private Healthcare Provision in the City aD eveloping a Global Financial Centre for Social Impact Investment
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City Industries
7 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015 City Industries
The Changing Face of the City of London April 2015 Secondary Research Briefing Paper
The City of London is projected to grow at a rate of 3.4% per year
a T here is also a trend towards tall building developments in the
to 2018, adding 15,000 new jobs over the next two years – with
City, with 50 completed as of September 2014. There are ten tall
professional services expected to account for more than half of
buildings under construction of which three buildings are over
the total –according to this study. Prepared by the City of London
150m above ordnance datum (AOD) in height. Four tall buildings
Corporation and bringing together a range of secondary sources,
(75m AOD and over) and 13 buildings 50m AOD have been
this briefing paper examines the City of London’s evolving economy
permitted but construction has not commenced;
with a focus on employment, firms and industries, and property.
aO ver half of the City’s office stock has been built or refurbished
The City’s Gross Value Added was £48.7 billion in 2013, representing
since 1997, and over three-quarters have been built or refurbished
15.2% of Greater London’s economic output, and 3.6% of the UK’s.
since the mid-1980s.
This is projected to rise to £67.5 billion by 2023. The City generated an estimated £13.4 billion in tax revenues, equivalent to just over 10% of London’s total tax take. London’s tax contribution in 2013/14 is estimated at £127 billion, resulting in a net contribution of £34 billion to UK public finances. Employment in the square mile a 392,400 people were employed in the City in 2013, representing 8.3% of Greater London’s employment, and 1.4% of the UK’s total employment; a Median annual pay for full-time City workers was £54,591 in 2014, compared to a London median of £35,069, and UK median of £27,195; a Mean pay is significantly higher; £82,559 at City of London level, £48,267 for London and £33,475 at the UK level. Industries and firms in the square mile a There were 15,105 enterprises located in the City of London in 2014. a Four main business clusters, defined as areas with above UK average concentration of firms and/or employment, exist within the City: financial services; insurance services; professional services, and technology, media and telecommunications (TMT). a The financial services industry dominates the City of London’s economy, accounting for 38% of all employment and 64% of economic output, comprising 2,430 (16%) firms, with 90 firms (4%) classified as large firms (>250 employees), and making up 48% of all space occupied by sq ft in 2013. Property in the square mile a The property trend in the City is towards larger buildings. 79% of the space currently under construction in the City (EC1-4) is over 100,000 sq ft, equivalent to half of all schemes. However, smaller occupiers are still important – in 2013 a greater number of large buildings than large occupiers were identified, indicating that around half of the buildings over 100,000 sq ft are split into smaller units of occupation;
8 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015 City Industries
The Future of the City of London’s Economy June 2015 Research Periodical
What are the future prospects of the City of London’s economy
n Transport infrastructure and aviation capacity – There are
over the next decade? According to this report, published by the
currently a number of projects to improve rail transport in
City of London Corporation and produced by Centre for Cities and
London which are due to be completed in the near future.
Cambridge Econometrics, the City’s growth rate will accelerate,
These include Crossrail, which will increase the capacity of
pulling further away from both Greater London and the UK as a
London’s rail transport system by 10%; Thameslink, a project to
whole. The research considers the importance of ensuring that the
improve connectivity between towns and cities located to the
City and London maintains the conditions necessary to ensure this
north and south of London, and extensive upgrading of
growth, and identifies the risks, challenges and opportunities that
existing London Underground lines. The current lack of
might impact upon long term economic and employment trends.
consensus around definitive action to improve the air connectivity of Greater London however could affect
What might the economy look like in 2025? The City is projected to generate an additional £16 billion in output by 2025, equivalent to a rise of a third of its current size. Productivity
employment generating firms’ location decisions, reducing the competitiveness of the City. n Access to Finance – Access to finance, particularly for start-ups
is projected to rise from £114,000 per job, to £141,000 per job,
and small to medium sized enterprises is often cited as a
almost three times the UK’s productivity, enhancing the City’s
constraint on growth, with a shortage of financing at the
competitiveness and ability to provide highly specialist financial
venture capital stage beyond the first round of investment.
and business services.
This makes it more difficult for start-ups to prosper in London. The technology sector which has a very strong start up
Additional economic activity is forecast to generate 39,000 new
scene is projected to generate 3,400 new jobs and 31,100
jobs by 2025, equivalent to a 10% rise in employment. This will be
new jobs in the City and Central London respectively. The scale
driven by continued robust average output growth in Finance and
of future productivity gains will thus depend upon an ability
Insurance (3.3% per year), Media, IT and Communications (3.2%)
to harness the benefits provided by these sectors. Therefore
and Legal and Accounting services (1.1%). Together these three
access to finance is necessary to help firms and industries
sectors account for almost 90% of the expected output gains (and
achieve projected output and employment gains over the
almost 70% of the employment growth) for the City of London over
next ten years.
the 2015 to 2025 period. Address infrastructure and skills shortages Assessing the upside and the downside
It is projected the Finance & Insurance Services sector will once
The forecasts given assume that the conditions necessary to
more be at the fore as the City continues to grow over the next
achieve growth remain supportive to economic expansion.
ten years, providing 40% of all additional jobs and 75% of
This involves ensuring that the City and London maintains the
additional GVA growth. The report concludes, however, that
necessary infrastructure to support and promote the growth of
policymakers must address existing skills shortages, and
high-productivity industries, such as the availability of housing,
anticipate future skills demand from employers. In addition, a
skilled workers, access to finance, transport infrastructure and
growing labour force will require housing, either within or outside
aviation capacity.
London, as well as necessary transport to enable them to travel to and from work without overloading an already capacity-
n Housing infrastructure – London’s inflated housing market
constrained transport infrastructure. These issues need to be
could be damaging to business in the City if skilled workers
considered alongside the projections to provide context on how
are discouraged from living within a reasonable commuting
London fits into the UK economic system, as well as the UK’s
distance from the City through unaffordable rents or
position in the global economy.
house prices. n Availability of skilled workforce – Ensuring workers have the right skills is a key element in ensuring continued economic growth and productivity gains. London businesses have highlighted difficulties in recruiting staff for existing vacancies – 54% reported difficulties in hiring at the start of 2015.
9 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015 City Industries
Total Tax Contribution of UK Financial Services Eighth Edition December 2015 Research Report
The UK financial services sector contributed an estimated £66.5bn
remained stable at £30bn (2014: £30bn), with a slight decrease
or 11% to the UK Government’s tax receipts in the year to 31
within these figures.
March 2015. In the eighth edition of this study, authored by PwC and published by the City of London Corporation, the Total
n T he report estimates that financial services companies pay £25,439 on average in employment taxes for each employee.
Tax Contribution is revealed to be 1.4% higher than 2014. This is attributed to an increase in taxes borne (such as corporation tax
Trends in other taxes borne
and employers’ national insurance contributions), although these
The study also examines how there has been a shift from
were offset partially by a decrease in taxes collected (such as
corporation tax to other taxes borne. In 2007, for every £1 of
employee income tax).
corporation tax there was £1.45 of other taxes borne while in 2015 the figure was £4.05. The study further highlights the changing
Over the nine years that this survey has been carried out, there
profile of the tax system since 2007. In 2015, corporation tax
have been significant developments in the tax transparency
represents 19.8% of taxes borne (2007: 40.8%), employers’ NIC
debate and whether large multinationals are paying ‘their fair
represents 33.5% (2007: 21.3%) and irrecoverable VAT 25.3% (2007:
share of tax’. Financial services companies have responded to
19.1%).
the debate by providing more extensive voluntary disclosures on tax often including Total Tax Contribution disclosures. The OECD
The banking sector accounts for the greatest share of Total Tax
and EU have responded to the debate by introducing regulations
Contribution
requiring companies to report tax payments on a country-by-
The study concludes that the banks are the largest taxpayers in
country basis.
the sector with 65.6% (2014: 64.7%) of the Total Tax Contribution figures; 45.2% (2014: 46.7%) coming from UK based banks and
In this current environment, data on the contribution of the financial services sector to the public finances is helpful in informing that debate, and this study features data from the highest number of participants so far; 48 financial services companies, employing 40.3% of the UK financial services sector workforce and including retail banks, investment banks, insurers, asset managers, real estate companies and other financial services sector companies. The key findings The study shows that in the year to 31 March 2015: n The sector paid an estimated amount of total taxes in the region of £66.5bn, or 11.0% of total UK Government tax receipts (2014: 11.5%). This includes both taxes borne of £26.2bn and taxes collected of £40.3bn. n Corporation tax paid by the financial services sector increased from £5.4bn to £7.6bn between 2014 and 2015. Further, the bank levy paid increased from £2.2bn to £2.7bn between 2014 and 2015 due to rate changes. These taxes contributed to an increase in taxes borne from £24.8bn in 2014 to £26.2bn in 2015. n Employers’ NIC is the largest tax borne at 33.5%. Corporation tax and bank levy represent a smaller portion of the total taxes borne at 19.8% and 6.8% respectively. n 1 .1m people (3.4% of the UK workforce) were employed by the financial services sector. Estimated employment taxes broadly
20.3% (2014: 18.0%) from foreign banks.
Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015
Competitiveness and Infrastructure
11 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015 Competitiveness and Infrastructure
Future Workstyles and Future Workplaces in the City of London March 2015 Research Report
How can the City remain a world leading location for businesses
n T he economy of flexible and co-working spaces is growing and
and workers over the next ten years? In this study, commissioned
could be encouraged by City planners and policy makers,
jointly by the City of London Corporation and the City Property
including looking at opportunities for using empty spaces for
Association, and authored by Ramidus Consulting Limited, the
incubators and start-ups to make the City welcoming to a more
role of the workplace is identified as being crucial in attracting
diverse profile of occupier.
and retaining highly skilled staff as well as maximising productivity. In particular the report focuses on a number of themes that
Experience
encapsulate the direction in which working practices and
The City workforce is young, educated and diverse. However,
workplaces will evolve.
the impact of differences between the demands of Generation X and Generation Y will not be as strong as generally thought, as
With significant economic growth forecast for the City over the
expectations of choice and flexibility are consistently important
next decade, the blend of industry sectors is expected to become
across all generations.
more diverse with the traditional barriers between sectors eroding
n T he City will benefit from access to two Crossrail stations when
as firms require increasingly similar skill sets. A young, highly
the service commences in 2018, and this should be
skilled and highly productive workforce will become ever more
capitalised upon to reinforce the City’s accessibility and diversity
demanding, prioritising flexibility and choice. In turn, workplace provision will become an increasingly important consideration.
of amenities. n W ellbeing is deeply embedded in modern workplace management and City planners and policy makers might
The report includes a number of practical implications for City
consider how it could mirror this consideration by maximising
planners, policy makers, owners and developers. These include:
opportunities for pedestrianisation, dedicated cycle lanes, and safe and secure cycle parks when reviewing the overall
Flexibility and adaptability
traffic policy.
The City’s workforce is forecast to experience strong growth over the coming decade. However, it seems likely that the headcount
Agility, connectivity and permeability
growth might not result in a traditional profile of floorspace
The headings of ‘flexibility and adaptability’, ‘choice’ and
demand.
‘experience’ all point towards the need for connected, agile and
n C ity planners and policy makers should consider the
permeable organisations and places.
implications of a different type of growth, particularly in terms
n T he City should continue to take steps to ensure it is able to offer
of expectations for new space demand. There is now a greater
a competitive ‘connected’ environment through the provision
focus on quality and differentiation rather than just quantity of
of a high quality telecommunications offer for all businesses and
space. n C ity planners and policy makers should consider how to further
workers. n O wners and developers, and their design teams, could look for
understand the balance of future growth among large and
further opportunities to reinvent the model of the base building
small occupiers and their space needs, whilst encouraging
to leverage common areas and circulation, and ensure greater
developers to reinvent older, multi-let buildings and further
permeability at ground level to facilitate connections.
enhance the variety of accommodation available. The report concludes by emphasising how the nature of work Choice
will have changed dramatically by 2050 as artificial intelligence
While the business ecology of the City is likely to broaden, the
lays waste to large swathes of jobs – while creating thousands of
research has revealed a consistent perception of the City as being
new opportunities and accessing skills in different ways. If the City
a ‘corporate’ location which is not always as attractive to non-
continues to leverage its heritage, provide the right mix of space
traditional sectors.
and amenities, and compelling memorable experiences, it will
n C ity planners and policy makers should consider how to build
continue to be an attractive place for workers as people continue
upon and further enrich the overall service, retail and leisure offer in the City with a focus on developing and managing compelling experiences.
to value face-to-face encounters.
12 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015 Competitiveness and Infrastructure
The Impact of Crossrail April 2015 Secondary Research Briefing Paper
Crossrail will bring 1.5 million more people within a 45 minute
The benefits to property and retail
commute of the City, the West End and Canary Wharf according
Crossrail could help create additional commercial and residential
to this study published by the City of London Corporation. Bringing
value of up to £5.5 billion along the route between 2012 and 2021.
together a range of secondary sources, the report focuses on
Further benefits include:
the economic benefits for London and the UK of Crossrail, as well as the impact on the property and retail market around Crossrail stations along the route, in the City of London and the immediate surrounding area.
n C rossrail will support the delivery of over 57,000 new homes and 3.25 million square metres (sq m) of commercial space. n C ommercial office values around Crossrail stations in central London will increase over the next decade, with an uplift of 10%
Crossrail is a major new infrastructure project for London and the South-East, and will directly connect all of London’s main employment centres linking Heathrow with Paddington, the West End, the City and Canary Wharf. With the majority of the tunnelling complete, the first Crossrail services will start to run through central
in capital value above an already rising baseline projection. n R esidential capital values are projected to increase immediately around Crossrail stations in central London by 25% over the next decade, again above a rising baseline projection. n W hile the specific impact on retail is difficult to identify, One
London in late 2018, with the whole line due to be fully operational
New Change, Canary Wharf and Stratford represent major
in late 2019.
and recent additions to the Central London and eastern fringe shopping offer. Crossrail has the potential to significantly improve
The economic benefits
the speed and convenience with which residents of the wider
According to the study, Crossrail’s economic benefits include:
East London area can access this.
n A n additional 63,000 jobs in the City and the Isle of Dogs by
The report concludes by assessing the impact on the City of
2023. Another 85,000 jobs in the Thames Gateway and 33,000
London’s train stations and finds that Farringdon station is expected
elsewhere in London.
to become one of Britain’s busiest, with 140 trains per hour.
n £ 9.9 billion in net transport economic benefit, equivalent to
According to Crossrail Ltd projections, Farringdon station could
£2.76 for every £1 spent using Transport for London (TFL)’s
achieve a demand of some 27 million passengers a year and, on
methodology, or £5.4 billion and £1.97 for every £1 spent using
average, some 102,000 passengers per day in 2026. Additional
the Department for Transport (DfT)’s methodology.
benefits include a reduced 32 minute journey time from Liverpool
n 1 0% increase in the number of 18 to 24 year olds living within 30 minutes of central London universities, for example City University, London Metropolitan University (9%), Guildhall School of Music and Drama (8%), and the Queen Mary College, University of London (Farringdon campus) (18%).
Street station to Heathrow airport and accelerated regeneration in the City Fringes such as Whitechapel.
13 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015 Competitiveness and Infrastructure
The Implications of Economic Cybercrime for Policing October 2015 Research Report
The use of the internet and technology to commit economic
The existing approach
crime has been escalating sharply in recent years. Commissioned
Both in principle and in practice there is uncertainty about what
by the City of London Corporation, with the support of the City
is expected from the police and what is reasonable to expect
of London Police, and prepared by Cardiff University, this report
from them in tackling economic cybercrime. Existing Government
assesses the rising role of the internet in economic crime, and the
strategy has four components (the ‘Four Ps Model’) and involves a
implications for policing.
multiplicity of national and transnational organisations intervening both before (‘Protect’ and ‘Prevent’) and after (‘Pursue’ and
What is economic cybercrime?
‘Prepare’) criminal activity. Prepare, Protect and Prevent offer
Economic cybercrime largely involves obtaining, or initiating
the police fairly minor roles and, in light of resource constraints
dialogue to obtain, data, goods and/or money by deception,
and expertise, these roles are possibly more suitable for other
misrepresentation or straightforward fraud through the use
institutions who can integrate these responsibilities into wider,
of the internet. Broadly speaking, the main groups impacted
complementary functions.
by economic cybercrime are individuals, businesses, and government entities.
Recommendations to improve policing effectiveness The study concludes by recommending a series of measures
This type of crime can be understood as having three
that could improve the policing effectiveness of economic
different forms:
cybercrime. These include:
n C yber-dependent crimes – rely on networked information and communications technology (ICT), largely via the internet.
n R eview Home Office guidance – a review should be
Without the internet, the offending would not be possible. These
undertaken of the 2004 Home Office guidance on fraud
can include computer viruses, distributed denial of service
acceptance criteria for fraud generally, and economic
attacks and hacking.
cybercrime in particular, now that Action Fraud and industry
n C yber-enabled crimes – facilitated by these same ICTconnected technologies, but are not dependent upon them,
data paints a much clearer picture of current risks and threats; n H elp Protect and Prepare individuals and SMEs – with the police
and therefore can exist in some non-cyber form. These can
developing coherent strategies, coordinating identification
include fraudulent sales through bogus retail websites.
of key risks and threats from data, preparing communications
n Cyber-assisted crimes – use networked digital technologies
materials, developing response packages for individual
(such as mapping applications) in the course of criminal
forces in relation to the most common and harmful economic
activity which would take place anyway.
cybercrimes, identifying relevant partnerships and associations with their respective constituencies, and promoting better
Policing economic cybercrime – the challenges The study highlights a number of challenges to the effective policing of cybercrime, not least the lack of accurate
arrangements for cybercrime victims (for both care and reducing repeat victimisation); n M ore information-sharing with large organisations – there is a
reporting which makes it difficult to establish the full extent and
need for promotion and participation in information-sharing
nature of the economic cybercrime problem. Other policing
and police/government/industry guidance on emerging
challenges include the cost and complexity of investigations.
threats and trends around which the organisations can
The geographical freedom of economic cybercrime requires cross-jurisdictional working, which is challenging in terms of
develop their responses; n A change of police tactics – the traditional approach
the practicalities and logistics and also in the wider context of
of investigate and report should give way to a focus on
police funding cuts. Coordinating an effective response to an
prevention and disruption of websites as policing tactics.
international threat is particularly challenging when the nature of the threat is not fully known or understood and develops rapidly. Finally, understanding the different types of ‘harm’ that economic cybercrime can cause – beyond purely physical and financial – such as mental and psychological damage, is also an important aspect to consider.
14 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015
International Markets, EU and Regulation
15 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015 International Markets, EU and Regulation
Where Next Europe: the Future of European Financial Services May 2015 Research Report
In 2013, the EU financial services sector generated €731 billion
important supplier of services to households and businesses, and is
of gross value added (GVA), accounting for around 5.9% of the
also an important source of demand for other sectors.
total GVA for the EU. However, as this report illustrates, the scale
The analysis further shows that there are clear benefits of a
and nature of the interlinkages between financial services and
growing financial services sector and the consequences on the
other industries across the EU has an even more significant impact
rest of the EU economy. What specifically could contribute to this
on Europe’s economy. Authored by PricewaterhouseCoopers
growth?
LLP and published by the City of London Corporation, the study analyses the financial services sector in the EU and assesses its role
n Regulatory initiatives
in supporting economic activity, and the future for the sector and
Policymakers accept that regulatory reforms, which aim to
its relationship with other industries in the context of a changing
improve financial stability have had an impact on economic
regulatory environment.
growth. This points to the importance of careful calibration of future regulations that supports sustainable growth in the sector.
The contribution of the EU financial services sector
A sustainable financial services sector is also important in realising
As well as contributing 5.9% of EU-27 total GVA in 2013, the EU
the goals of the EU’s Capital Markets Union initiative to diversify
financial services sector also employed 6.4 million people, or 3%
the financial system with deep and developed capital markets
of the workforce. The report also highlights that the total value
and establish a single market in the EU to unlock the flows of
of intermediate goods and services purchased by the sector
cross-border capital. Policymakers should carefully consider
from other sectors amounted to €316 billion. However, given the
the potential impacts of new regulatory initiatives such as bank
changes to the industry in the years following the financial crisis,
structural reforms and the financial transaction tax, and how they
the future is uncertain.
interact with existing rules and reforms, on the sector’s ability to continue supporting economic growth;
Predictions for future growth Taking two different scenarios, with the first assuming financial
n T he role of financial services firms
services sector growth at 60% of its pre-crisis growth rate (1.9% per
Financial services firms need to avoid excessive focus on cost
annum), and a second showing annual growth at close to 0%, the
reduction, short-term performance recovery, risk management
research identifies what a future EU financial services sector might
and regulatory compliance. While these are undoubtedly
look like between 2015 and 2030.
important, they will not mark out successful firms in the longerterm. Rather, firms need to take a strategic perspective to
Under scenario one, assuming growth of 1.9% per annum:
the customers they serve, the products they create and the
n E U gross domestic product (GDP) grows by 1.8% annually
technology they use to deliver services. Through investment,
(compared to 1.5% per annum under scenario two);
innovation and growth, the financial services sector will remain
n T otal EU GDP in 2020 is €200 billion larger than scenario two;
relevant to customers, supporting the European economy in the
n A n additional 11 million jobs created by 2030 (relative to
process.
scenario two); n A mongst these, 2.3 million jobs are within the financial services sector. Conclusions The modelling shows that a well-functioning financial services sector is important to the economic growth of Europe. The sector performs an important role in financial intermediation, by facilitating the flow of credit between lenders and borrowers, providing maturity and risk transformation services, handling payment systems and others. Banks also help businesses manage their risk and investments, raise capital, and facilitate efficient flows of domestic and international capital. The sector is an
16 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015 International Markets, EU and Regulation
London RMB Business Volumes 2014 June 2015 Policy Practitioner Paper
Despite some volatility, London has continued to consolidate its
both forwards and swaps more than doubling on 2013 levels
position as a global centre for RMB business says the latest in the
(increases of 156% and 144% respectively);
City of London renminbi series. This report, authored by Bourse
n F X options rose 84% over 2013 to a daily value of US$5.8 billion.
Consult and published by the City of London Corporation, shows
The analysis of London’s share of offshore trading in the main
that while the rapid growth of trade finance decreased in 2014,
deliverable products showed London slightly increasing its
RMB forex trading expanded rapidly, as did the importance of
share in comparison to other offshore centres indicating that
deliverable products versus non-deliverables.
London is more than holding its own as an attractive centre for RMB forex in a rapidly growing global market;
Development of the offshore renminbi market
n W hile trading in non-deliverables is declining relative to
As in 2013, China’s renminbi currency – reflecting the new norm
deliverable products, the levels of non-deliverable trading
of slower growth, which is expected to remain at least through
in the major categories (forwards and options) grew strongly
to 2017 - continued to depreciate and display increased levels
in 2014. Daily trading in non-deliverable forwards grew 88%
of volatility. Concerns remain about the shadow banking
compared with 2013 to US$6.6 billion and non-deliverable
system and the property markets, though market commentators
options increased by 153% to a daily average of US$5.4 billion;
continue to be sanguine about China’s ability to engineer an
n T otal deposits, after being relatively stable since 2011 at around
orderly rebalancing of the economy. At the same time the
¥14 billion, increased strongly to ¥20 billion at the end of 2014,
number of economic initiatives has continued to multiply and the
reflecting a significant increase in corporate deposits.
drive towards financial reform continues unabated. SWIFT’s payments data showed that the RMB had moved
London to maintain its position
into the top five global payments currencies, displacing both
This report’s overall findings fit with the key trends identified in
the Australian and Canadian dollars in January 2015: a stellar
previous London RMB business volumes reports in this series.
increase over its 13th position in 2013, though still only representing
Although market volatility continues, RMB business is developing
4.4% of total global payments.
globally both in terms of volume and in the breadth of products and services denominated in the currency. UK growth matches
The London RMB market
this global trend and the report expects London to maintain its
The picture that comes out from this year’s survey responses is
position as a leading centre for RMB business for the foreseeable
that London has continued to consolidate its position as a global
future, bringing with it even more opportunity within what remains
centre for RMB business, despite some volatility. 2014 for instance
a nascent but hugely exciting emerging financial market.
saw declines in trade finance, but also witnessed the continuation of very strong growth in RMB forex trading, reflecting one of London’s key strengths. n D uring 2014 the rapid growth of trade finance was reversed with a decline to ¥35.2 billion from ¥42.8 billion in 2013. The first half of 2014 showed significant growth over the second half of 2013 – from ¥14.8 billion to ¥26.5 billion – but the second half of 2014 saw a sharp decline to ¥8.7 billion; n R MB forex trading in 2014 averaged US$ 61.5 billion per day, a 143% rise over 2013 and nearly six times the volumes reported in the first survey in 2011; n D eliverables grew 162% over 2013 and non-deliverables by 91%. The continued shift toward deliverable products reflects the growing liquidity in the offshore pool of RMB; n W ithin deliverable products spot trading was more than three times the 2013 figure at US$18.4 billion per day; a 229% increase. Other deliverables also increased strongly with
17 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015 International Markets, EU and Regulation
The Impact of Global Regulatory Change on India’s Financial Markets July 2015 Research Report
Published by the City of London Corporation and written by IMRB
exposure to US customers due to the high cost of doing business
International, this report aims to understand how global, European
with them.
and US financial regulatory reform is being perceived on the ground in India and collate views on its current and potential
The UK Bribery Act and the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA)
impacts. In particular it found that levels of awareness of the
These were regarded as having an impact on all businesses with
different global regulations that affect India’s capital markets
a connection with the UK or US. The UK Bribery Act was viewed
vary. Basel III was the most recognised while, for other regulation,
as particularly stringent by many respondents with the burden of
such as the Dodd-Frank Act, the perceived impact was less clear.
proof on the deemed offender. Other views include:
The report focuses on a core set of financial regulations including
n C orporates and multinational banks have incurred high costs
Basel III, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), the UK Bribery Act and the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), and the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, amongst others, with first hand views gathered from high level Indian stakeholders including banks, law firms and credit rating agencies.
on risk mitigation activities such as ethics training, internal audit and due diligence; n T he FCPA has similar impacts to the Bribery Act, but was not viewed to be as stringent. n A reduction of foreign direct investment (FDI) is viewed as a potential indirect impact of these Acts.
Basel III
Other Regulatory Reforms
Basel III was highlighted as the regulation with the highest level of
The perceived impact of the Dodd-Frank Act (with the exception
awareness. It is recognised as likely to have a significant impact
of the Volcker Rule) and the EU over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives
on banks and other financial institutions on their business strategies
reforms (EMIR, MiFID II and MiFIR) on India’s capital markets was
going forward, as well as imminent changes to their business
unclear across many respondents:
operations. Respondents also felt that Basel III would lead to
n E MIR may have potential impacts on the activities of EU
an increased cost of compliance as well as potential changes
banks operating in India’s capital markets if India’s clearing
in customer strategies and legal structures. In addition, those
corporations are not approved by the European Securities and
surveyed felt that: n B asel III may also lead to an increase in the cost and availability
Markets Authority (ESMA); n T he cost of cross border trades may increase for corporates
of funds for corporates, especially mid-sized corporate firms
going forward due to increased compliance and reporting
and specifically the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME)
activities for non-US/non-EU counterparties.
sector; n T hey had no particular opposition or feeling of negativity
Conclusions – simplification needed
towards Basel III. Most Indian banks were of the view that they
The regulations included in this study are generally seen as
were already adhering to strict domestic capital requirements
necessary but highly complex and not always unified in their
under the guidance of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), prior to
impact across countries. Respondents made the following
the implementation of Basel III.
recommendations regarding how the challenges around global regulatory reforms and their impact can be best addressed:
The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) FATCA was seen to impact on all financial institutions with business
n A need for further integration of regulation on a common global platform;
links with US investors. The majority of the banks and financial
n A need for simplification of the regulations;
institutions, financial infrastructure institutions and law firm
n A need for the creation of a global level playing field in terms
respondents were of the view that: n B usiness processes, especially ‘Know Your Customer’ (KYC) requirements and reporting would change under FATCA, incurring substantial related costs in reporting systems and technology; n C hanges in customer strategy are already underway as many mutual fund houses and financial advisory firms reduce their
of implementation and enforcement; n A reduction of the stringency of regulation in some areas to allow businesses and markets to function competitively.
18 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015 International Markets, EU and Regulation
Worldwide Currency Usage and Trends December 2015 Information Paper
Focusing on the currency, volume and value of cross-border
carries substantial weight accounting for 77.8% of European
payments exchanged by financial institutions between 2012 and
inflows, and 91.6% of European outflows in Q4 2014;
2014, this paper prepared by SWIFT, the world’s leading provider of
n I n the smaller payments corridor between Europe and Asia-
secure financial messaging services, in collaboration with
Pacific however, the euro is very strong and is ranked first for
the City of London Corporation and Paris EUROPLACE, finds that
flows from Asia-Pacific to Europe. The currency increased from
the US dollar continues to prevail as the dominant international
29.7% in Q4 2012 to 34.3% in Q4 2014.
trade currency. What are the drivers or incentives determining the use of a By analysing an extensive range of SWIFT commercial and financial
particular currency?
flows in over 200 countries and territories, the study provides a
n G eo-economics – policy interventions intended to encourage
broad yet concise overview. Two types of transaction flows are
the use of a particular currency, such as the People’s Bank of
covered in this report: commercial flows and financial flows.
China increasing the number of swap agreements and clearing centres to promote Chinese yuan usage;
n C ommercial flows refer to payment instructions sent by the bank
n H istoric and cultural ties – for instance Morocco’s increased use
of client A, typically a corporate, to the bank of client B for the
of the euro over the US dollar, due to its past colonial links with
import of goods or services; n F inancial flows represent the payment routes used for the settlement of transactions. These are measured based on the number of commercial payments sent by banks from one country/region to counterparty banks in another country/region.
France; n G eographic and regional factors – for example, amplified usage of the Chinese yuan in Asia-Pacific through countries such as Japan; n E conomic – in relation to the stability of a currency or the nature of the goods or services using the currency (for example,
The paper answers a number of key questions on how currency use in global payments is changing, namely:
commodities such as energy are often priced in US dollar); n C ommercial – such as incentives to invoice in a specific currency to factor in hedging risks or to receive a discount from
What are the top currencies used in international trade?
suppliers.
n T he US dollar prevails as the dominant international trade currency, with a 51.9% share of the value of international
Are there regions or countries where the use of local currencies
currency usage in 2014;
could grow?
n T he euro is second, with a 30.5% share of the total value; n T he British pound is third, with a 5.4% share of the total value, followed by Asian currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan; n T he Chinese yuan (CNY) or renminbi (RMB) is currently ranked
n A sia, Australia and New Zealand are the only regions and countries that are predicted to see their shares of total world trade increase by 2023. As a result, their cross-border payments will also increase more rapidly compared to other regions; n T he continued economic expansion of India and China, and
fifth for Asia-Pacific inflows and outflows with Europe, excluding
the associated rise in intra-regional and international trade
the UK.
also suggests that Asia’s share of total world trade will have overtaken Europe by 2023. This prediction implies that there may
What is the UK’s role in currency flows between Europe, Asia-
be a number of knock-on effects, including which currencies
Pacific and the Americas?
are used for international trade and correspondent banking
n T he UK is the main correspondent country within Europe for
flows.
Americas and Asia-Pacific, regardless of the currency. UK financial institutions process more than 50% of all European inflows and outflows with the Americas and Asia-Pacific. What are the major currency flows with Europe, excluding the UK? n T he US dollar remains the dominant currency used for financial flows in both directions between the Americas and Europe. It
19 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015 International Markets, EU and Regulation
Figure: Currency usage to and from the UK Source: SWIFT Watch, MT 103 in value, Q4 2014 versus Q4 2012.
20 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015
Corporate Responsibility and Community
21 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015 Corporate Responsibility and Community
Deprivation in London January 2015 Secondary Research Briefing Paper
London, while being considered comparatively affluent and
participating in full time education and training, which is 5.6%
performing well across a number of measures of deprivation, still
higher than the national figure.
experiences poverty and deprivation across the region says this paper prepared by the City of London Corporation. By bringing
Health deprivation
together a range of secondary sources that look at different
n J ust under a fifth (19.6%) of the London adult population is
indicators for deprivation, four main aspects are focused on: income and employment; education/skills/training; health and housing; and child deprivation. These aspects are then examined
classified as obese, looking at 2012 data. The outer London boroughs have the highest proportion of obese adults; n N ewham, Hackney, Lambeth, Southwark and Islington are
at three geographical levels: London as a whole; regions within
among the boroughs with the lowest life expectancy for males
London; and London borough level, with some specific focus on
and females.
the City of London. Housing deprivation What is deprivation? Deprivation, for the context of this report, refers to the damaging lack of material benefits considered to be basic necessities in a
n I n all 32 London boroughs, less than 10% of available properties are affordable to a single person on average wages; n T he proportion of homes rented from a local authority or
society and is therefore a relative measure of wellbeing. Analysis
housing association is almost double in inner London (31.8%)
of deprivation in inner and outer London over time suggests that
than in outer London (16.7%) in 2013.
there have been improvements in both of these regions, though inner London continues to be more deprived overall. For example:
Child deprivation
n F rom June 2011 to June 2014, the employment rate in both
n 3 7% of all children in the capital are living below the
inner and outer London has improved (from 66.1% to 69.5% and 70.7% to 72.0% respectively), though the employment rate remains lower in inner than outer London overall; n E conomic inactivity rates have fallen in both inner and outer London over the period June 2011 to June 2014 (26.8% to
poverty line; n O ver a quarter of children in inner London live in out-of work families (26.4%), compared to less than a fifth in outer London (18.9%) in 2013; n A t both nursery and primary, and secondary school level, the
2.3% and 23.3% to 22.4% respectively). Overall inner London
proportion of children claiming free school meals is almost
continues to have a higher economic inactivity rate than outer
double in inner London than in outer London.
London. Deprivation in the City of London Key findings in the report include:
The report concludes by looking at deprivation in the City.
Income and employment deprivation
According to the 2010 Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD)
n 1 6.1% of households in London are out of work, compared to
measure, the City of London is a relatively affluent district, and
the 17.2% UK average; n T he 2013/14 unemployment rate is higher in inner London (8.6%)
falls within the 40% least deprived of local authorities in England. The City performs well in terms of resident happiness and
than outer London (7.9%), and inner London has a higher
wellbeing (8.1 for life satisfaction; 8.2 for worthwhileness and 7.4
proportion of working age population claiming benefits (11.1%
for happiness in 2012/13).
versus 9.1% for outer London). Disparities do exist however; while the Barbican West and East Education/training/skills deprivation
residential areas are among the 20% least deprived Lower Super
n A t Key Stage 4, London outperforms every other English region,
Output Areas (LSOAs) in England, Golden Lane and the rest of
and has experienced an overall improvement of 9% over the
the City are among the 40% least deprived, Mansell Street and
last four years;
Petticoat Lane (both within the Portsoken ward), are among the
n L ondon has a higher rate of both primary and secondary pupils at state schools receiving free school meals than the average in England; n T he majority of 16 and 17 year olds in London (87.3%) are
40% most deprived, based on the 2010 IMD measure.
22 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015 Corporate Responsibility and Community
Mapping Public and Private Healthcare Provision in the City February 2015 Research Report
In the last two years, more than half (59%) of City of London workers
of City workers had used each. Services used to a lesser extent,
without private healthcare would have liked to access healthcare
but by at least one quarter of workers, were blood tests (39%),
services in the City but were unable to according to this research
travel vaccinations (27%) and GP appointments for emergencies
carried out by BDRC Continental and published by the City of
(23%). A minority had used physiotherapy-related services (13%)
London Corporation. Much of this gap in provision relates to GP
with very few using counselling for alcohol, drugs and smoking
appointments, adds the report, which identifies and maps current
(4%), sexual health services (4%), occupational health (4%) and
healthcare provision in and around the Square Mile area for use by
mental healthcare services and support (2%). Only a minority of
City workers and residents.
City workers had used services near work, with the majority using services near home.
What is known about City workers and their healthcare needs In 2012 the City of London Corporation published research
Unmet demand
exploring the healthcare needs of City workers. The study
Looking at where needs may potentially be unmet, this research
found that many City workers had limited capacity to visit an
found that the dominant reason for where a worker wanted to use
NHS healthcare provider without taking time off work due to
a service but could not, was a lack of available appointments.
long working hours, limited service availability near work, and
Other potential areas to consider are GP health checks, blood
commuting time, meaning that healthcare providers are often
tests and mental healthcare provision. Potentially, lower service
closed by the time they get home. This gap in provision has partly
levels also exist for GP appointments, private medical services,
been filled by private sector services, but there was still concern
emergency NHS appointments and travel vaccinations.
about the lack of NHS provision (including the closure of the NHS
Unmet demand could be born of a perception that services
walk-in centre in the City), particularly for those who did not have
are assumed not to exist or are hard to access in the City and
healthcare benefits through their work.
therefore awareness-raising by service providers may be required. Accessibility is a key issue where, for example, GP services via an
Current healthcare provision
NHS provider can only be accessed via a home-located surgery
Current healthcare provision in and surrounding the Square Mile
and not via a work one (unless a worker is set up as a temporary
includes 332 providers of ‘core’ healthcare services. These include
patient). Therefore City workers using NHS facilities are largely
both single and multiple service providers and range from NHS and
limited to their own surgery for non-emergency appointments, and
private medical services to mental health services; sexual health;
thus unmet demand may be coped with or self-medicated.
occupational health; physiotherapy, and osteopathy. Raise awareness n O f the 57 NHS medical service providers: 47 provide GP
In conclusion, the report suggests that key considerations for
appointments, 50 emergency appointments, 48 drop-in or same
healthcare service provision in the City are to:
day appointments, 41 a yearly health check and 40 provide a
n C ontinue to meet City workers’ healthcare needs, particularly
one-off health check. n T here are 99 providers offering private medical services. Of these, 70 offer travel vaccinations, 43 offer blood tests, and 58 offer private mental healthcare services. A further 58 offer NHS mental healthcare services. n 2 66 organisations provide ‘other’ services, with a mix of both NHS (46) and private providers (220). In the report’s survey of 1,042 face-to-face interviews, City workers were asked which types of healthcare services they had used in the last two years, either accessed near home or near work and also services that they had not accessed at all. The most prevalent services used by City workers were GP appointments for both regular check-ups and non-emergencies, where 66%
in terms of providing the types of services that they require and in offering a sufficient number of appointments at appropriate times. n R aising awareness and informing City workers of the presence of healthcare providers and what types of services are available to them.
23 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015 Corporate Responsibility and Community
Developing a Global Financial Centre for Social Impact Investment June 2015 Research Report
London is currently well-positioned as a strong national financial
n F avourable environment;
centre for social impact investment (SII) according to this research
n S ocial impact standards and reporting;
carried out by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and published by the
n I nternational connections.
City of London Corporation, particularly in terms of its financial markets, regulatory, policy and legal environment. However, the
Where does London currently stand in the context of these
study identifies a number of areas that London needs to address –
features and its progression towards being a global financial
such as ensuring a supportive regulatory environment – if it is to be
centre for SII – where is it doing well and where does it require
a global financial centre for social impact investment.
further development or enhancement? London is currently at stage 1 of development, predominantly seen
What is social impact investment?
as a strong national financial centre for SII. To fully achieve stage
The G8 Social Impact Investment Taskforce defines SII as: “those
1 and progress to stage 2 requires further improvements, says the
forms of investment financing that intentionally target specific
study, across some features in particular. For example, a greater
social objectives along with financial returns and measure the
supply of capital from retail investors is a key area for improvement
achievement of both”. The estimated size of the SII market globally
on a national level. This would arise from the development and
in 2015 is in excess of $12bn with significant growth potential.
utilisation of a favourable environment alongside improved
This report considers the concept of a global financial centre for
innovation in products that meet both retail investors’ and SSO’s
social impact investment, and whether London is or could be well
needs.
placed to take on this role. This research considered a range of secondary sources supplemented by consultation with a sample
What can be recommended to inform such development and
of international social impact investors and select subject matter
evolution for London to become a global financial centre for SII?
experts, to answer four research questions.
The report goes on to list six practical recommendations to enable London to move closer towards becoming a global financial
What might a global financial centre for SII look like and
centre for SII. These are:
what are the stages of development?
n C reating and fully utilising a supportive regulatory environment
There are three progressive stages for the development of a global
for SII;
financial centre for SII.
n E ncouraging retail investment (through a supportive regulatory
The starting point is a mature national financial centre for social
n G rowing and drawing on London’s highly skilled workforce to
environment); impact investment. For a national financial centre to progress and develop requires the ability to attract greater international supplies of capital – from investors such as government, charitable trusts and foundations, impact investing funds, mainstream financial investors and development finance institutions. The final stage involves combining the international supply of capital, with attracting international demand for SII capital from the global
attract more skilled professionals into the social sector; n S timulating supply and demand for SII opportunities for international capital in the future; n I ntroducing international social impact measurement standards and accreditation models; n P rovision of targeted technical assistance for SSOs for greater capacity building and at fund level for impact.
community of social sector organisations (SSOs) and others delivering these impacts.
Conclusion: the features London must address A number of major financial centres, largely national capitals, have
What are the essential ‘features’ of a global financial centre for SII
been at the forefront of driving change so far for SII, with London
that might enable it to transition to more developed stages?
pre-eminent among them. The research concludes that London
The research identifies six essential features of a global financial
has certain features that it must address if it is to be a global
centre for social impact investment across the three stages of
financial centre for social impact investment – not least in relation
market development. These are:
to ensuring a supportive regulatory environment, accreditation,
n K nowledge and expertise;
enabling greater retail investment, developing its skills base and
n I nnovation in products and instruments;
technical assistance models.
n M aturity and attractiveness of financial markets;
24 Economic Development Research Programme Review of 2015
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