The Importance of Wholesale Financial Services to the EU Economy 2014 Special Interest Paper City of London Corporation
The Importance of Wholesale Financial Services to the EU Economy 2014 Special Interest Paper City of London Corporation
www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/economicresearch
The Importance of Wholesale Financial Services to the EU Economy 2014 is published by the City of London Corporation. The author of this report is London Economics. This Special Interest Paper is intended as a basis for discussion only. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the material in this report, the author, London Economics, and the City of London Corporation, give no warranty in that regard and accept no liability for any loss or damage incurred through the use of, or reliance upon, this report or the information contained herein. November 2014 Š City of London PO Box 270, Guildhall London EC2P 2EJ www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/economicresearch
Special Interest paper City of London Corporation
Contents
1
Introduction
2
2
The evolution of EU28 wholesale financial services pre- and post-financial crisis
3
3
The distribution of wholesale financial services across the EU28
5
4
The contribution of wholesale financial services to national economies
7
Annex 1
Methodology
8
Annex 2
Level of wholesale finance GVA (in EUR million) in EU28 Member States
9
Annex 3 Share (in %) of Member States’ wholesale finance GVA in total EU28 wholesale finance GVA
10
Annex 4
11
Share (in %) of wholesale finance GVA in Member States’ economy-wide GVA
Figures Figure 1 Evolution of the GVA generated by the EU28 wholesale financial services and EU28 GDP (at market price) – 2001 to 2013 Figure 2 Average annual growth rate 2001 to 2007 and 2008 to 2013 of the GVA of EU28 wholesale financial services and EU28 GDP at market price Figure 3 Share of wholesale financial services GVA of EU Member States in EU28 wholesale financial services GVA – 2013 Figure 4 Share of five and ten largest wholesale financial services in EU28 wholesale financial sector GVA – 2001 to 2013 Figure 5 Share (in %) of wholesale financial services GVA in total domestic GVA – 2013
3
4
5
6 7
1
The Importance of Wholesale Financial Services to the EU Economy 2014 1 Introduction This report provides data at an EU level on the wholesale financial sector from 2001 to 2013. Earlier data can be seen in context in earlier work produced in 2009 for the City of London Corporation. 1
For the purpose of the present analysis, the financial sector includes all financial and insurance services (that is, sector K in the classification of economic activities in the European Community NACE rev. 2). To distinguish wholesale financial services from other financial intermediation activities such as retail banking, in this report we adopt the following definition of wholesale financial services: “the provision of services by financial institutions to corporate clients, investors, institutions and public sector bodies, as well as to other financial institutions.” Wholesale financial services contrasts with retail financial services, which involve the provision of financial services to individuals. The focus of this report is on gross value added (GVA) generated by the wholesale financial sector. GVA measures the contribution to the economy of each individual producer, industry or sector, and for the economy as a whole, where GVA is equal to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) net of general indirect taxes and subsidies. In 2013, it is estimated that the GVA of the EU28 wholesale financial sector amounted to €263.4 billion, equivalent to 1.5% of total EU28 GVA.
2
1 See: City of London (2009) ’The Importance of Wholesale Financial Services to the EU Economy 2009’, prepared by London Economics. http://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/business/economic-researchand-information/research-publications/Pages/-The-Importance-ofWholesale-Financial-Services-to-the-EU-Economy-2009.aspx
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2 The evolution of EU28 wholesale financial services pre- and post-financial crisis Looking at EU wholesale financial services data over the last 13 years (2001 to 2013), two distinct periods can be identified; the pre-financial crisis period (that is, 2001 to 2007) and the post-financial crisis period (2008 to 2013). The growth of wholesale financial services compared with growth in GDP, indexed to 2001 levels, is shown in Figures 1 and 2, with the full dataset available in Annex 2. 2
Over the period 2001 to 2013, the GVA of wholesale financial services has risen, as has the level of EU GDP, indexed to 2001 prices. Wholesale financial services GVA has grown faster than GDP over this period, however the rates of growth have differed significantly for both respectively.
During the pre-crisis period, the GVA of EU28 wholesale financial services grew at an annual average rate of 8.8%, at slightly more than double the rate of EU28 GDP, which was 4.2% over the same period. Wholesale financial services GVA rose from €135.3 billion in 2001 to €254.8 billion in 2007. In contrast, during the post-crisis period, the GVA of wholesale financial services grew at the slower pace of 1.3% on average annually, whereas GDP growth was 1%, demonstrating the effects of the economic downturn over the period. Wholesale financial services GVA reached its peak in 2010, rising from €250.7 billion in 2008 to €266.0 billion. However wholesale financial services GVA declined in 2011 and as a result is yet to regain this level, totalling €263.4 billion in 2013.
Figure 1: Evolution of the GVA generated by the EU28 wholesale financial services and EU28 GDP (at market price) – 2001 to 2013 (indexed to 2001 levels) EU28 GDP (at market price) GVA Financial Sector EU28
Indexed Growth: 2001 = 100
200 180 160 140 120 100 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: London Economics based on data from Eurostat
2 While financial difficulties started to manifest themselves in 2007, the general view at that time was that these were localised issues and did not affect the financial sector as a whole.
3
The Importance of Wholesale Financial Services to the EU Economy 2014
Figure 2: Average annual growth rate 2001 to 2007 and 2008 to 2013 of the GVA of EU28 wholesale financial services and EU28 GDP at market price
GDP at market price GVA financial sector 10%
8.8%
8% 6%
4.2% 4%
1.3%
2%
1.0%
0% 2001-2007 Source: London Economics based on data from Eurostat
4
2008-2013
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3 The distribution of wholesale financial services across the EU28 In 2013, as in previous years, EU28 wholesale financial services were heavily concentrated geographically, with five Member States accounting for over 75% of total EU28 wholesale financial services GVA (see Figure 3) and 10 Member States accounting for over 90% of total EU28 GVA generated by the wholesale financial sector. 3
Among the Member States with the five largest wholesale finance sectors, the UK accounted for 35% of total EU28 wholesale financial services GVA followed by France, Italy and the Netherlands (which each accounted for between 10.5% and 12% of EU wholesale financial services GVA). Germany accounted for 7.5% of the total EU GVA produced by wholesale financial services.
FT igure 3: Share of wholesale financial services GVA of EU Member States in EU28 wholesale financial services GVA – 2013 Estonia
<0.1%
Latvia
<0.1%
Lithuania
<0.1%
Bulgaria
<0.1%
Croatia
<0.1%
Slovenia
<0.1%
Slovakia
<0.1%
Hungary
<0.1%
Romania
<0.1%
Czech Republic
0.1%
Malta
0.1%
Cyprus
0.2%
Poland
0.3%
Finland
0.3%
Greece
0.5%
Portugal
0.9%
Austria
1.9%
Sweden
2.2%
Denmark
3.1%
Spain
3.2%
Luxembourg
3.3%
Ireland
3.4%
Belgium Germany Italy
4.1% 7.5% 10.6%
Netherlands
11.3%
France
11.9%
United Kingdom
0%
35.1%
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
40
Source: London Economics based on data from Eurostat
3 Detailed data for all Member States for the period 2001 to 2013 is provided in Annex 3.
5
The Importance of Wholesale Financial Services to the EU Economy 2014
The relative importance of the Member States with the five and ten largest wholesale finance sectors has changed little over the last 13 years (see Figure 4). Figure 4: Share of five and ten largest wholesale financial services in EU28 wholesale financial sector GVA â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2001 to 2013 Combined share of ten largest Combined share of five largest 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: London Economics based on data from Eurostat
6
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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4 The contribution of wholesale financial services to national economies The contribution of the wholesale financial sector to total GVA produced by the economy of a Member State varied greatly across the EU in 2013 (see Figure 5):
Figure 5: Share (in %) of wholesale financial services GVA in total domestic GVA â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2013
4
Slovakia 0.1%
n In the case of Luxembourg, the wholesale financial sector accounted for more than 21.1% of total GVA produced domestically; n In the case of Cyprus, Ireland, Malta, Netherlands and the United Kingdom, the share of wholesale finance services in total domestic GVA ranges from 4% to 6.1%; n In the case of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Italy, Portugal, and Sweden, the share of wholesale finance services in total domestic GVA ranges from 1.5% to less than 3.8%; and, n In all the other Member States, the share of wholesale finance services in total domestic GVA is less than 1%.
Romania 0.1% Lithuania 0.1% Latvia 0.1% Hungary 0.1% Estonia 0.1% Czech Republic 0.1% Croatia 0.1% Bulgaria 0.1% Slovenia 0.2% Poland 0.2% Finland
0.5%
Germany
0.8%
Spain
0.9%
Greece
0.9%
EU28
1.5%
Portugal
1.6%
Sweden
1.6%
France
1.7%
Austria
1.7%
Italy
2.0% 3.2%
Belgium Denmark
3.8%
Cyprus
4.0%
Malta
4.1%
Netherlands
5.5%
United Kingdom
5.5% 6.1%
Ireland Luxembourg
21.1%
0
5
10
15
20 25
Source: London Economics based on data from Eurostat
4 Detailed data for all Member States for the period 2001 to 2013 is provided in Annex 4.
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The Importance of Wholesale Financial Services to the EU Economy 2014 Annex 1 Methodology In order to estimate the gross value added (GVA) of the wholesale financial services sector, the following benchmark approach was used. It is identical to the one used to generate estimates of gross value added of the wholesale financial services sector in the 2009 report for the City of London Corporation and subsequent updates of the data. First, data on the gross value added generated by all financial and insurance activities (sector K in the classification of economic activities in the European Community NACE rev. 2) were sourced from Eurostat for all 28 EU countries for the period 2001 to 2012. Estimates for 2013 were generated using 2013 data from Eurostat on employment in financial and insurance activities. Second, an estimate was generated of the share of retail financial and insurance activities relative to all financial and insurance activities in each country by using a benchmarking system against 20 European countries that are not highly dependent on the financial sector. This benchmarking system is based on the share of total financial and insurance services in total domestic gross value added and the level of all financial and insurance services on a per capita basis.
8
The use of the second indicator takes account of the fact that a) the level of retail banking in an economy depends not only on the economyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GDP level but also on the size of its population and b) population size and GDP level are not perfectly correlated. For each indicator, the set of 20 EU Member States with a) the lowest ratio of financial intermediation GVA to total GVA and b) the lowest level of financial intermediation on a per-capita basis was identified for each year separately. A benchmark of the retail finance and insurance services share was then estimated as the mean of the average of the two indicators across these 20 EU Member States. Third, the estimate of retail finance and insurance was subtracted from the level of total financial and insurance services to arrive at an estimate of the wholesale financial and insurance services. When the ratio of wholesale financial and insurance services to GDP in a particular country was zero or negative, this ratio was adjusted upwards to allow for a very small level of wholesale financial sector activity.
Special Interest paper City of London Corporation
Annex 2 Level of wholesale finance GVA (in EUR million) in EU28 Member States
Wholesale financial services value added, millions of â&#x201A;Ź
Â
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Austria
4607 4714 4331 4342 4526 5265 5816 6023 4018 4425 5151 4970 4928
Belgium
6128 7234 6780 7525 7342 7302 7120 6671 8690 10753 11061 11105 10783
Bulgaria
14 15 16 17 20 22 26 30 30 31 33 34 34
Croatia
30 31 32 33 36 40 43 48 45 44 44 43 43
Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland
309 231 224 294 367 495 607 635 676 762 649 645 603 65 76 77 83 94 107 119 139 128 135 140 137 133 2897 3299 4024 4005 4202 4373 5203 6341 6792 6630 6878 8182 8097 6 7 8 9 10 12 14 14 12 13 14 15 16 742 709 631 663 684 719 785 813 749 778 813 827 828
France
10059 12855 15959 14236 13632 14593 14064 13881 19015 26192 26169 28538 31365
Germany
21725 26275 33750 39347 31745 28005 18889 19953 21957 27940 25006 18193 19631
Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands
321 217 627 1572 1603 1790 1617 1784 1385 1653 1629 1481 1440 51 61 63 70 76 78 85 90 77 81 84 81 82 5067 5587 8067 9164 10461 11574 12892 11570 11956 11052 10339 9363 8996 18215 15923 19631 17553 19120 19111 26849 28331 24276 27604 29893 28043 28032 8 9 9 10 11 14 19 21 17 16 18 20 21 12 13 15 17 19 22 26 29 24 25 28 30 31 3761 3903 4790 4931 6241 8185 8578 7712 7227 8613 8432 8481 8593 30 29 30 33 35 53 14 9 92 160 209 239 259 12365 14340 18043 18546 20627 17224 14120 13987 21786 27102 25765 29688 29683
Poland
379 371 338 363 431 478 544 636 552 625 652 676 692
Portugal
2301 2196 2482 2448 2517 3962 4790 5288 4043 3950 3662 3184 2289
Romania
41 44 47 55 70 86 110 125 106 111 115 115 125
Slovakia
21 23 26 30 34 40 49 58 57 60 62 65 66
Slovenia
15 13 40 30 55 209 218 263 305 448 308 106 61
Spain Sweden United Kingdom EU28 EU28 = 100 in 2001
7503 8517 8438 7870 7955 9595 16396 19556 22120 9203 5617 7155 8298 2894 2247 2705 3772 4134 2664 2412 2486 3020 2748 3566 5482 5834 35743 58107 61914 65806 82861 94083 113362 104255 104117 94890 80423 92285 92410 135310 167047 193098 202825 218908 230101 254768 250745 263274 266044 246760 259183 263374 100 123.45 142.70 149.89 161.78 170.05 188.28 185.31 194.57 196.61 182.36 191.54 194.64
Source: London Economics based on Eurostat data
9
The Importance of Wholesale Financial Services to the EU Economy 2014 Annex 3 Share (in %) of Member Statesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; wholesale finance GVA in total EU28 wholesale finance GVA
Wholesale financial services value added, % of total EU28 wholesale financial services value added
Â
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Austria
3.4% 2.8% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 1.5% 1.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9%
Belgium
4.5% 4.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 2.7% 3.3% 4.0% 4.5% 4.3% 4.1%
Bulgaria
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Croatia
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cyprus
0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Czech Republic
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Denmark
2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8% 3.2% 3.1%
Estonia
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Finland
0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
France
7.4% 7.7% 8.3% 7.0% 6.2% 6.3% 5.5% 5.5% 7.2% 9.8% 10.6% 11.0% 11.9%
Germany
16.1% 15.7% 17.5% 19.4% 14.5% 12.2% 7.4% 8.0% 8.3% 10.5% 10.1% 7.0% 7.5%
Greece
0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5%
Hungary
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ireland Italy
3.7% 3.3% 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 5.0% 5.1% 4.6% 4.5% 4.2% 4.2% 3.6% 3.4% 13.5% 9.5% 10.2% 8.7% 8.7% 8.3% 10.5% 11.3% 9.2% 10.4% 12.1% 10.8% 10.6%
Latvia
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lithuania
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Luxembourg
2.8% 2.3% 2.5% 2.4% 2.9% 3.6% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 3.2% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3%
Malta
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Netherlands
9.1% 8.6% 9.3% 9.1% 9.4% 7.5% 5.5% 5.6% 8.3% 10.2% 10.4% 11.5% 11.3%
Poland
0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Portugal
1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.2% 0.9%
Romania
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Slovakia
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Slovenia
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Spain
5.5% 5.1% 4.4% 3.9% 3.6% 4.2% 6.4% 7.8% 8.4% 3.5% 2.3% 2.8% 3.2%
Sweden United Kingdom
2.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% 2.1% 2.2% 26.4% 34.8% 32.1% 32.4% 37.9% 40.9% 44.5% 41.6% 39.5% 35.7% 32.6% 35.6% 35.1%
Source: London Economics based on Eurostat data
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Annex 4 Share (in %) of wholesale finance GVA in Member Statesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; economy-wide GVA
Wholesale financial services value added, % of country GDP
Â
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Austria
2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7%
Belgium
2.7% 3.1% 2.8% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.9% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2%
Bulgaria
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Croatia
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Cyprus
3.2% 2.3% 2.2% 2.6% 3.0% 3.8% 4.3% 4.2% 4.5% 4.8% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Czech Republic
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Denmark
1.9% 2.1% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 3.2% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3% 3.9% 3.8%
Estonia
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Finland
0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
France
0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7%
Germany
1.2% 1.4% 1.8% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8%
Greece
0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%
Hungary
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Ireland
4.7% 4.7% 6.4% 6.9% 7.3% 7.4% 7.7% 7.2% 8.2% 7.6% 6.9% 6.3% 6.1%
Italy
1.7% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%
Latvia
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Lithuania
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Luxembourg
18.6% 18.2% 20.7% 20.1% 23.1% 26.8% 25.4% 22.9% 22.7% 24.3% 22.4% 22.0% 21.1%
Malta
1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 1.8% 2.8% 3.6% 4.0% 4.1%
Netherlands
3.1% 3.5% 4.3% 4.2% 4.5% 3.6% 2.8% 2.6% 4.3% 5.2% 4.8% 5.5% 5.5%
Poland
0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Portugal
2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.9% 3.3% 3.5% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2% 1.6%
Romania
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Slovakia
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Slovenia
0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2%
Spain
1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.7% 2.0% 2.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9%
Sweden
1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.5% 1.6%
United Kingdom
2.3% 3.6% 4.0% 4.1% 5.0% 5.3% 6.1% 6.3% 7.2% 6.1% 5.1% 5.4% 5.5%
EU28
1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5%
Source: London Economics based on Eurostat data
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The Importance of Wholesale Financial Services to the EU Economy 2014 Special Interest Paper City of London Corporation November 2014
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