National Opinion Poll

Monday, January 12, 2015

Dhaka Tribune

National Opinion Poll Government’s 1st Year Dhaka Tribune National Opinion Survey December 2014 This special supplement illustrates results from a new nationwide opinion poll conducted for Dhaka Tribune by Innovative Research & Consultancy Ltd, an independent research body, from December 28-31, 2014. Results are detailed over the page with the details of the methodology and an executive summary contained in brief on the last page.

If elections were held today, AL would get 41% of the vote to BNP’s 34%, a lead of 7%.

AL has a far bigger lead (22%) over BNP among urban voters than among voters in rural areas (3%).

48% of people aged 18-24 say they would vote BNP compared to only 34% saying they would vote AL. This is in stark contrast to the general trend and all other age groups.

72% of all voters rate the government’s overall performance in the last year as successful or very successful.

62% rate the overall BNP alliance performance as unsuccessful or very unsuccessful.

Education is the top priority, with nearly a quarter of people (24%) naming it as the country’s biggest issue. It was also seen as the government’s biggest success.

47% want the current government to complete its full term, while 49% do not, of whom 35% want elections as soon as possible, and a further 5% within the year 49% say they would like to see Sheikh Hasina as the next PM, compared to 22% for Khaleda Zia and 7.5% for HM Ershad. 22% plumped for Someone Else.

Asked who was the more fit out of Sajeeb Wazed Joy and Tarique Rahman as a leader for the next generation, 52% said Joy, 24.5% said Tarique and 18.7% said Neither.

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Dhaka Tribune National Opinion Poll

Government’s success on selected issue/sector in last 1 year 73.9% rated the government as successful or very successful on the economy Law and order received the lowest positive rating 62% and highest negative figure 26.1% Economy

8.2

International relationship

8.3

Law & order, ensuring the security of common people

65.7 59.5

11.4

50.6

Controlling terrorism and militancy

8.7

56.1

Ensuring democratic rights of common people

9.1

54

0

20

Very Successful

40

Successful

60

Neither Successful nor Unsuccessful

Unsuccessful

80 Very Unsuccessful

Overall performance of government in last one year 80

A majority of people across the country 71.7% rated the government’s overall performance as successful or very successful

Successful

60.1%

70 60 50 40 30

Neither successful nor unsuccessful

Unsuccessful Very successful

11.6%

20 10 0 Opinion Survey MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2015

20%

3.5%

Very unsuccessful

4.1%

Don’t Know

0.6%

100 Don’t Know

15

10

5.9

4.5

2.1

1.7

1.8

0.1

25

2.5

Don’t know/cannot say

1.8

2.5

5.5

Reducing corruption

0.7

1.0

0.4

0.1 Food security

0.1

Rural development

New pay scale

0.1

0.1

0.3 International relationship

Women’s education

Establishment of rights over maritime boundary

Controlling price hike of commodities

0.6

Improvement in health sector

0.4

Providing allowance (old age pension, freedom fighter allowance, etc)

Increasing employment

Punishment/trial of war criminals

2.8

ICT Digital Bangladesh

3.7

4.4

Agricultural development

Building Padma Bridge

Handling political situation

0

Failed to control media aggression of India

Reduced manpower export

1.6 Neglecting religious issues 0.6 Women do not get fair trial 0.6 Unfair treatment with opposition 0.6 Failed to control own party 0.6 Industrial sector 0.5 Failed in RMG 0.4 Failed in international relationship 0.3 Increase in road/train accidents 0.3 Traffic jam 0.2 Gas 0.1 Failed to execute war criminals 0.1

Poor health sector

Failed in agricultural sector

Poor administration

2.5

20

Failed to uphold the rights of common people

Political uncertainty

3.9 Don’t know/cannot say 2.7

Price hike of commodities

7.1

9.5

Improving law and order situation

Improving electricity crisis

12.4

Economic development reducing poverty

No success

18.9

25

Unemployment

5.8

8.6

Failed to control corruption

Electricity crisis

Poor infrastructure

5.3 Poor economy 5.1

5 Infrastructure development

5

22.9 Poor law and order 21.3

20

No failure

10

24.1

15

Education sector

1.2

Government’s 1st Year Performance 3

The biggest success of government in last one year

Biggest failure of government in last one year

The most popular suggestion was No Failure with 22.9%. However, this is closely matched by poor law and order with 21.3%

0

Opinion Survey MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2015

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Dhaka Tribune National Opinion Poll

Performance of BNP alliance in selected issue/area A clear majority of people 62.2% rate the overall BNP alliance performance as unsuccessful or very unsuccessful In questioning the legitimacy of the government

52.9

7.8

In highlighting problems of common people

48.0

13.7

In highlighting better future outline for the people

55.7

11.8

In presenting themselves as better alternative to current government

50.6

15.5

Overall

50.2

12.0

Very Successful

Successful

Unsuccessful

Very Unsuccessful

Neither Successful nor Unsuccessful

Don’t Know

Overall performance of Jatiyo Party as opposition party in the parliament in last one year Very dissatisfied

37.9

Dissatisfied

8.5

Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied

10.3

Don’t know 2.4 Refused 0.6

Satisfied

35.6

Very satisfied

4.5

Opinion Survey MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2015

Slightly more people 46.5% said they were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied compared to 40.1% saying they were satisfied or very satisfied

Government’s 1st Year Performance 5 Which party would you vote for if the election were held today?

AL

41.3 BNP

33.7

7.6%

JP

Other Islamic party not related with BNP alliance Other party or individual candidate

Not yet taken any decision

But among the 18-24

2.5

I will not vote

48% to 34%.

Refused

30

20

1.7

6.6

No Vote

demographic, BNP outpolls AL by

0.3

5.4

None of them

the BNP in stated voter intention.

40

1.0

Jamaat-e-Islami

AL currently has a 7% lead over

50

5.3

0.4

1.9

10

0

Which party do you think will win the vote?

Vs

Awami League

46.5 %

BNP alliance

33.6%

BNP

33.6%

Other parties alliance

11.3%

AL alliance

Don’t know/can’t say

46.5%

7.0% Refused

1.6%

Opinion Survey MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2015

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Dhaka Tribune National Opinion Poll

How soon should the next parliamentary election be held?

In due time

Nearly half the population 47% said the next election should be held after this government completes its full tenure, compared to 49% who want early elections, of whom 35% want them as soon as possible.

47.0%

As soon as possible 35.1% Within 1 year 5.0%

Within 2 or 3 years

!

8.9%

Don’t know 2.9%

Refused 0

1.0%

10

20

30

40

50

This represents a turnaround from 6 months ago when 53% wanted the government to complete its full term compared to 25% who wanted elections within the year.

60

0.1 Controlling population growth 0.1 Trial/punishment of war criminals 0.1 Take action against dowry

ICT

0.1

0.2 Improving international relationship

0.2 More emphasis on RMG

Settling political dispute with BNP

Traffic jam

0.3 Drugs 0.2

0.2

0.3 Strengthening local administration

0.7 Emphasize on manpower export 0.6 Controlling child marriage 0.6 Emphasize on health sector 0.6 Padma bridge 0.4 Retrieval of democratic rights

0.8 5.2 Agricultural development 2.2 Controlling price hike 1.7 Controlling corruption 1.1

7.7

8.7 Electricity production

16.5

Opinion Survey MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2015

Economic development (macro level)

0

Education was the public’s biggest concern, with nearly a quarter of people 23.7% naming it as the country’s most pressing issue

Creating employment

5

Improving law and order

23.7

10

Improvement of road communication

15

Education

17.6

20

Arrangement of election at earliest

25

Economic development (personal level)

10.4

The most important issue for the country at this moment

Government’s 1st Year Performance 7 Whom do you want to see as the next prime minister of Bangladesh

Vs

Someone Else/ None of the Above

Sheikh Hasina

48.6%

21.8

Khaleda Zia

22.2%

HM Ershad

7.5

Sheikh Hasina

48.6

Khaleda Zia

22.1

Who is the more fit as a next generation leader?

Sajeeb Wazed Joy

60

52.4 %

50

40

30

20

10

Tarique Rahman

24.5%

Asked who was the more fit out of Sajeeb Wazed Joy and Tarique Rahman as a leader for the next generation, 52.4% said Joy, 24.5% said Tarique and 18.7% said Neither.

Neither

18.7% Refused

4.4,%

0 Opinion Survey MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2015

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Dhaka Tribune National Opinion Poll

Executive Summary • Dhaka Tribune’s national opinion poll on the government’s one-year performance rating has revealed broad satisfaction among the general population for the government’s first year in office.

• Over 70 percent of those polled rate the government’s overall performance as either successful or very successful. When we broke down the question sector-wise, the lowest positive rating was for law and order, but even there 62 percent rated the government as successful or very successful.

• The government’s biggest failure was held to be poor law and order, with 21 percent. However, 23 percent opined that the government had no major failures in its first year in office.

• The respondents rated education as the biggest success of this government and also deemed it the most important issue for the country at present.

Infrastructure development was the number two priority and also seen as a major success for the government.

• Interestingly, the war crimes trials were seen as neither a major success of the government, nor as a major concern for the country. Nor was ICT/ Digital Bangladesh seen as either a major success or pressing concern.

• Conversely, over 62 percent of those polled rated the BNP as being unsuccessful or very unsuccessful. This number was 52 percent when we asked the question 6 months ago, suggesting dissatisfaction with the BNP is growing.

• Interestingly, when asked whom they would vote for if elections were held today, AL polled 41 percent to 34 percent for BNP, a difference of only 7 percent.

The only division in which BNP out-polled AL was Rajshahi.

• Sheikh Hasina outpolled Khaleda Zia by a whopping 49 percent to 22 percent as the person respondents would like to see as next prime minister, with HM Ershad clocking in at 7.5 percent. Someone Else/ None of the Above polled 22 percent.

• The best news for the BNP was that the AL lead among voters was a scant 3 percent in rural areas (compared to 22 percent in urban areas) and that in the 18-24 demographic, it actually out-polled the AL significantly, by 48 percent to 34 percent, suggesting that the long-term prognosis for the party may be more positive.

• When next generation leaders of the political dynasties were compared, Sajeed Wazed Joy outpolled Tarique Rahman by over two to one (though this preference came down to 13 points among the 18-24 demographic). Nineteen percent of those polled opined that neither is fit to lead.

• Finally, in a small but significant shift from the poll we ran 6 months ago, when 53 percent were content to have the government finish its full tenure, compared to roughly 25 percent who wanted elections within the year, today’s poll shows that this number has dropped to 47 percent, with 49 percent wanting early elections, of whom 40 percent would like to see them within the year.

Methodology This study was an opinion poll conducted by randomly sampling mobile phone users across the country.

The universe used was mobile phone user/ owner(s) in Bangladesh aged 18 and over.

Opinion Survey MONDAY, JANUARY 12, 2015

Data collection was done through randomly generated mobile phone numbers.

The sample size for this study was 600.

Statistically, this ensures a 95% level of confidence with an error range of 4%.

The published figures have been weighted to ensure the answers recorded reflect the national population and are not skewed by district, age or gender.

Multi-stage sampling procedure was followed in this regard. Bangladesh

Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC) published data was used to define the operator quota, later on computer generated random numbers were used to select respondents.