Dsa final march 2016 by Digitech Solutions

March 2016

Volume 7 issue 6

MSMEs in Defence

editor-in-chief

umerous Indian citizens have been detained within the country and outside, for promoting or actually joining the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. ISIS is also called Daesh, in Arabic, the name which its leadership apparently hates. Others simply call it Islamic State. Either way, whatever names it carries, the fact that it exists and that its support within India is enough to draw the attention of authorities makes it a threat. By every yardstick that can be applied, the IS is a global terrorist organisation that has a nihilistic world view and for the fulfillment of which it is capable of undertaking the most ghastly actions. The list of atrocities committed is endless, each outdoing the previous monstrosity. The game, it seems, is to create a bigger shock at each event. In this the shock is provided by blood and gore. This is not some short-term phenomenon aimed at a quick footnote in history. The IS actually seeks to make a society that remains wedded to its vision for the foreseeable future. Which explains why a four years old child will be given the power over a remote detonation of a car packed with people. Even as others of his age are beginning their digital journey through the keys of a mobile phone, this one has entered the killing age with the same pressure applied on a remote key. The end product socially will be no different than what was attempted through the Nazi youth league, a dysfunctional human being. How do some Indians then find an attraction for this most debased human experiment? The worrisome aspect of this query is not that similar episodes occur around the country, so the Indians falling for this ghastly vision are escaping into just another room. This type of murderousness and then its projection into workstations and smartphones around the world is one of its kind. And that is what the IS precisely is, one of its kind in a world where many are sick in the mind. The Indians attracted to the IS worldview donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t come across as the usual psychos that usually end up in jails around the world for crimes committed. In fact there is nothing psychologically sick in those that have been detained within India, or even those deported from other countries for espousing IS propaganda. All of them appear to be fairly normal human beings, largely employed, or even employable. But what differentiates them from those who have gone on to make a mark in other terrorist organisations is that the Indian recruit for the IS is invariably a technically trained young male. Many times first generation educated. These are IS foot soldiers who have been digitally inspired by a millennial ideology of hate and murder. They are not some seminary trained brainwashed types who are cannon fodder, or suicide bomber by the dozens. India needs to watch where its youth is going in order to understand what is driving some of them into the open arms of the IS. Arms that are there to trap and then finish their lives. But many are still inspired enough to go to those arms. There is something happening in the youth that is alienating some of them, enough to leave home, employment and opportunities. What makes a mother, like the Pakistani woman in California, leave a small child behind and become a gun toting murderer? Thankfully, that hasnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t happened yet by an Indian. So, every effort must be made to ensure it doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t happen. Even as security agencies scour the digital world every day for signs of radicalisation, they must also coordinate with their counterparts from other countries to keep a watchful eye. The coordination has to be done on a local, regional and a global level since threat is at each stage. In this game the local communities have to be mobilised as well, for those who are falling off the map live amongst people. In order to keep a watch and the country safe, certain things have to be more transparent for the security agencies. Prying eyes are important when it comes to preventing terror. As the old adage goes, prevention is always better than cure.

Manvendra Singh March 2016

Defence AND security alert

publisher’s view

MSMEs - Backbone Of Industrial Growth An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Magazine

Volume 7 | Issue 6 | March 2016 Chairman Shyam Sunder Publisher and ceo Pawan Agrawal President Urvashi J Agrawal Director Shishir Bhushan Editor-in-chief Manvendra Singh Corporate consultant KJ Singh Corporate communication Mamta Jain Natasha Sales Anup Kumar Sinha Creative Amit Kumar Gaur Representative (J&K) Salil Sharma Correspondent (Europe) Dominika Cosic Production Dilshad and Dabeer Webmaster Sundar Rawat IT operations Ankit Kumar Photographer Subhash Circulation and distribution Ashok Gupta E-mail: (first name)@dsalert.org info: info@dsalert.org articles: articles@dsalert.org subscription: subscription@dsalert.org online edition: online@dsalert.org advertisement: advt@dsalert.org Editorial and corporate office Prabhat Prakashan Tower 4/19 Asaf Ali Road New Delhi-110002 (India) +91-011-23243999, 23287999, 9958382999 info@dsalert.org | www.dsalert.org Disclaimer All rights reserved. Reproduction and translation in any language in whole or in part by any means without permission from Defence and Security Alert is prohibited. Opinions expressed are those of the individual writers and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher and/or editors. All disputes are subject to jurisdiction of Delhi Courts. Defence and Security Alert is printed, published and owned by Pawan Agrawal and printed at Graphic World, 1686, Kucha Dakhini Rai, Daryaganj, New Delhi-110002 and published at 4/19 Asaf Ali Road, New Delhi (India). Editor: Manvendra Singh

March 2016

fter the current government came to power, a new and welcome dimension was introduced to the industry sector by the flagship initiative of Prime Minister Modi, called Make in India. It found immediate resonance in the multitude of micro, small and medium enterprises collectively known as the MSME (especially among those in the Defence sector) which have helped, as much as their intrinsic expertise allowed, to keep the Indian military Laviathan functional in the face of international embargos and restrictive control regimes. Their moment to contribute more to the national security architecture had arrived. India has been into Defence production right from its Independence in 1947. The several ordnance factories that the British had set up in India to support the war effort in Burma (now Myanmar) and South East Asia theatre against the Japanese penetration needed ancillary support from the MSME sector. Even as the Defence Public Sector Undertakings and connected laboratories and factories grew in a monopolistic regime, there was a felt need for encouraging ancillary units in close proximity to such dedicated DPSUs engaged in developing weapons platforms, to bolster a national policy of self-reliance. This had become imperative to avoid becoming prey to the calculated manipulation of the geostrategic environment by the infusion of the most modern weapons systems, into Pakistan and encouraging it into military misadventures against India. A clear indicator of how deleterious has been the effect on the nation is the fact that today it has the dubious distinction of being the largest importer of weapons from foreign sources. Part of the foreign gameplan to destabilise the governments of the day were the successive scams in Defence acquisitions involving artillery and submarines which led to a stasis that paralysed Defence acquisitions in the wake of the scandals enveloping the Swedish Bofors 155mm howitzer and German HDW submarines. For decades thereafter production of these platforms lay in limbo. We all know what happened with the delayed commissioning of the aircraft carrier Vikramaditya by Russia and what continues to afflict the Rafale medium multirole combat aircraft from France. Some or the other reason persists and our national security is in danger which gives an indication towards some bigger conspiracy involving the manufacturers, bureaucrats, politicians and some businessmen who are not letting India’s own Defence Industrial Base (DIB) to develop. To support the Defence Industrial Base, it is equally very important that the Medium, Small and Micro Enterprises also be made strong to provide the best ancillary products of their acknowledged knowhow to the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) so as to strengthen both the national security as well as the economy. The existence of the Offset policies in the Defence sector is another very important aspect for the OEMs as well as the MSMEs to flourish. Even as we are trying to improve our national security apparatus new dangers are emerging on the horizon. Team DSA has focussed on the threat posed to the world, and particularly India, by the ISIS that has set up a fundamentalist Islamic Caliphate in Syria and Iraq and has threatened a ‘final war’ in India. Given the brutality and mindlessness that ISIS has displayed in the areas under its control, the threat from the ISIS to India can be worse than the LeT, the Taliban and Red Terror. Our experts on terrorism have highlighted all aspects of this new perceived threat and have offered solutions which should exercise the minds of our readers. The recent arrests across the country are self-explanatory of how the network of ISIS has been expanded in India by a few black sheep. It is very essential now that we all should be united against such elements. It is not only the responsibility of the government to secure its people from the ISIS but it is the time when our print as well as the electronic media, police, cyber cells, the Intelligence agencies and society should support each other to create a bigger action plan to eradicate any further expansion of the ISIS network in any part of India. I hope you will like this edition as always and I look forward to your candid feedback to make DSA more readable and acceptable.

Jai Hind!

Defence AND security alert

Pawan Agrawal

Contents

An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Magazine

SMEsâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;The Real Backbone Of Indian Economy 06 Puneet Kaura MSMEs Can Play A Vital Role 09 Rajinder Bhatia

Strengthening Defence Industrial Base Col HS Shankar (Retd)

MSMEs In DPP 2016 Ganesh Raj

MSMEs Strengthening The Defence Potential N Ramachandran

Know The Chief DG, Sashastra Seema Bal

Restructuring Indian Defence Industry Prakash Panneerselvam

How It Needs To Be Countered In India Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Cyber The Next Great War Is India Ready? Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retd)

Role Of Intelligence Keeping It Relevant And Effective Vikram Sood

March 2016 Defence AND security alert

ISIS A Clear And Present Danger to India Manvendra Singh w

Countering The Islamic State Capt SB Tyagi (Retd)

Demilitarisation Of Siachen Countered In India Maj Gen Dr Mrinal Suman (Retd)

Tackling Pakistani Terror Maj Gen Pushpendra Singh (Retd)

Is India prepared for ISIS challenge? Col Utkarsh S Rathore (Retd)

ISIS Threat To India Role Of Indian Foreign Policy Ashok Sajjanhar And Anuradha Sajjanhar

Under Threat Of Abrogation Of Indus Waters Treaty Lt Gen Harwant Singh (Retd)

Role Of Stakeholders In Perception Management Ashutosh Kr Mishra

ISIS In India Possibilities And Realities Col Shailender Arya

When should a patient be referred for IVF Dr Kaberi Banerjee

For online edition log on to

www.dsalert.org

March March 2016 2016 Defence Defence AND AND security security alert alert

MSMEs in defence MAKE IN INDIA VISION

SMEs – The Real Backbone Countries such as China, Israel and South Korea, which recognised the potential of SMEs in upgrading domestic Defence R&D and manufacturing base and encouraged their incubation through conducive policy and financial support, have successfully transformed themselves as net arms exporters today.

ake in India’ vision cannot really succeed without uplifting the SME sector. An economy obsessed with big numbers, big investments and bigger stories often tends to overlook the ground realities and humble enterprises which go into making these aspirations possible. We are talking about small and medium enterprises here – the SME sector, the unsung and real backbone of Indian economy! The SMEs contribution to India’s GDP and India’s growth story is phenomenal – to say the least. India’s approximately 30 million manufacturing SME units contribute nearly 45 per cent of the industrial output; 40 per cent of the country’s total exports; employ over 60 million people ie more than 66 per cent of the 80 million workforce is employed within the Indian manufacturing sector. Industry or manufacturing sector employs about 22 per cent of country’s total workforce size estimated between 430-470 million; create more than 1.3 million jobs every year and produce more than 8,000 quality products for the domestic and international markets. Does this sound impressive?

Plagued By Uncertainties

But as always, numbers do not tell the whole story! Because, SMEs continue to be plagued with a host of obstacles ranging from high sickness to debt traps to shutdowns which themselves have been the result

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

of legacy structural problems such as low access to cheap capital, low bargaining power vis-à-vis larger firms; delayed payments for its supplies, slow technology upgradation and product innovation etc – in sum this sector perpetually lives in an environment of uncertainties. Nonetheless, if we are serious about higher GDP, job growth and ‘Make in India’, then we will have to provide a serious boost to the SMEs.

Employment Generators

For all practical purposes, ‘Make in India’ vision is really about addressing the challenges of an economy in transition. We are witnessing high urban migration and a shift in our demographic profile whereby we have the largest pool of young people, with most of them below the age of 30 years. But to turn this demographic phenomenon into demographic dividend, we need to convert youthful energy into gainful employment for enhanced productivity. So, which sector can provide such avenues? Agriculture is saturated and overburdened. It provides employment to approximately 50 per cent of our workforce but contributes only about 17 per cent of GDP. The services sector can never be a mass employment generator unless industrial sector picks up. So, as a logical corollary – it is the only industry which has the ability to provide mass employment as well as the potential to really uplift the Indian economy.

Of Indian Economy Countries which transitioned from low income to middle or high income economies also recognised this fact and took appropriate measures. China, for example, where not long ago agriculture bore the brunt of employment and GDP contribution, corrected its historical and unfair burden on agriculture and now, all its three sectors contribute and employ roughly about 30 per cent of workforce with a slight skew towards industry. Contrast this to India where agriculture continues to be the main workforce absorber while contributing lowest to GDP. Thus, ‘Make in India’ vision is also about mitigating historical burdens. And within the industry sector, SMEs are the largest employment generator and have the biggest potential to absorb the new workforce.

Defence Natural Magnet

A focus on SMEs will not be unique to India. The global Defence industry which is primarily dominated by a limited number of Original Equipment Puneet Kaura Manufacturers (OEMs), works The Writer is the Managing in close co-ordination with SME Director and CEO of Samtel units. There are many reasons Avionics Ltd, which makes for this – innovative capabilities high-technology products in niche manufacturing, for avionics and military greater operational flexibility, applications, including lower overhead costs and a Multi-Function Display Panels for India’s Sukhoi 30 and demonstrated ability to learn and Mirage 2000 fleets through absorb new technologies – all its JVs with HAL and Thales important attributes for success in respectively a fast paced sector characterised by regular innovations and continuous manufacturing up-scaling. More so now that the trend among OEMs is to increasingly become R&D hubs and systems integrators and to leave actual manufacturing to others.

So, where does Defence fit into ‘Make in India’ scheme? The Defence sector is among those niche breed of industrial and R&D activities where net gain in terms of value addition as well as employee rewards are much higher compared to SME units Upgrading To Exporters in other sectors. And in India, as is the case world Countries such as China, Israel and South Korea, over, SMEs have been the mainstay of Defence which recognised the potential of SMEs in upgrading sector. This fact has been acknowledged by the domestic Defence, R&D and manufacturing base Dhirendra Singh Committee of 2015. The Committee’s and encouraged their incubation through conducive voluminous report highlights that almost 80 per cent policy and financial support, have successfully of components, aggregates and transformed themselves as assemblies of complex weapons net arms exporters today. New DPP has excised systems and aircraft are made The impressive rise of Israeli by SMEs. It points out that there SMEs such as Bedek (which the normally long gap are nearly 6,000 SMEs across the later became Israel Aerospace between AoN and RFP country employing over 11 lakh Industries), ELOP, Elbit people that supply components Systems, Tadiran and Elisra and sub-assemblies to Defence PSUs, Ordnance into the world’s top Defence innovators is Factories, DRDO and private companies. particularly commendable.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

MSMEs in defence MAKE IN INDIA VISION India, too, can reach the same heights as many of the right ingredients for success are already present. We have hundreds of SMEs closely collaborating with various Defence PSUs, Ordnance Factories, DRDO and private companies in areas such as aerospace subsystems and accessories, ground equipment and tooling; naval systems, subsystems and accessories; IT hardware and electronics; Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO); casting, forging and metal works and R&D. Within this mass there are quite a few companies (and I count Samtel Avionics as one such), which have consistently upgraded themselves in terms of R&D as well as technical capabilities while entering into strategic product development and preferred supplier relationships with global manufacturers.

remaining 10 per cent if a successful prototype does not receive orders will encourage local development and innovation and will alleviate to some degree the high cost of capital that Defence manufacturers have to deal with. Reserving projects in this category with development costs under ` 10 crore for SMEs is a bonus. ● Assurance sans interference: In the ‘Make-II’ category, industry will fund its own prototypes but government will refund the entire development cost if there are no orders within two years of successful prototype development. Since there will be no direct ministry oversight, manufacturers can work unimpeded. This augurs well for the entire industry including the larger established SMEs that have their own R&D. ● Reservation for SMEs: All Defence products that will have a development cost of less than ` 3 crore have been reserved for SMEs in the ‘Make-III’ category, which is a sensible move that will benefit the micro and small firms in this category. ● Streamlining of arms acquisition process: The new DPP also seeks to streamline the entire arms acquisition process by cutting down on the long delays that have become the norm. For instance, the concerned armed force will have to submit a draft ‘Request for Proposal’ (RFP) along with the ‘Acceptance of Necessity’ (AoN) So, how can Defence SMEs and therefore, the bulk thereby excising the normally long gap between of India’s indigenous Defence sector be taken to the AoN and RFP in one fell swoop. next level? The first steps have to come from SMEs themselves followed by government push. The SMEs However, increased offset threshold has been need to understand that OEM expectations in terms one big dampener which the government needs of quality and supply commitments require them to reconsider. The new DPP seeks to increase the to invest in technology and manpower training offset threshold from ` 300 crore to ` 2,000 crore for in anticipation of a contract not post facto. This foreign vendors, ostensibly to reduce the final price demonstrates confidence of Defence equipment. Since and a strong commitment the offset policy required The SMEs contribution to a long-term business 30 per cent of the contract relationship; vital ingredients value to be ploughed back to India’s GDP and India’s for success in a sector where into the indigenous industry, growth story is phenomenal this will not only reduce the stakes are so high. Government on its part has foreign investments into spelled out some progressive initiatives to encourage Indian firms but also reduce business opportunities SMEs growth in the latest Defence Procurement Policy for a large number of Indian firms, particularly SMEs. announced by Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar The Fallacy recently. These include: ● Recognition of SMEs role in Defence And before I end, let me bust the common fallacy manufacturing: The new DPP clearly recognises that growth story typically involves large enterprises the critical role that SMEs play in our Defence vs SMEs whereby one makes way for the other. This ecosystem. is a fallacy! Take the example of Italy, one of the most ● Promotion of design backed indigenous industrialised economies of the world. It may manufacturing: The new top priority come as a surprise to many that SMEs procurement category of ‘Indigenous Design constitute the backbone of the Italian production Development Manufacturing’ (IDDM) will system. On a total number of more than 6,000,000 back domestic companies which have proven enterprises, 99.9 per cent are SMEs. This sector competencies in design and innovation, very contributes 81 per cent of the total employment and much the forte of SMEs. 72.4 per cent of the Italian GDP. Within EU, SMEs ● Stress on innovation: The move to fund accounted for 66.5 per cent of all European jobs in 90 per cent of the developmental cost in the 2013 and contributed over 3.4 trillion Euro to its ‘Make-I’ category, with a guaranteed return of the economy. Are we listening?

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

Strengthening defence production CONCRETE FUNDING

MSMEs Can Play A Vital Role

Defence production needs long-term and large investment, cutting-edge technology with low economies of scale. The government on its part did realise the importance of this and launched the novel idea of Technology Development Fund. However, the same has not yet been operationalised. Similarly, no concrete developments have taken place on the separate R&D fund set up by the MoD in 2011 to outsource R&D to Indian companies, including MSMEs.

Rajinder Bhatia The writer is President and CEO, Kalyani Group.

ith 1.81 per cent of its GDP (2014-15) Defence industrial base. Indigenisation not only spent on Defence, India ranks among makes for a strong case for self-reliance, but also helps the top ten countries in the world in attain self-sufficiency in critical weapon systems. terms of military expenditure. Nearly It saves a massive outflow of funds on imports, in 40 per cent of total Defence budget spent on capital addition to contributing to the skill enhancement of acquisitions has 70 per cent import content either local industry and the flow of spin-off technologies to directly or indirectly, thus making us a net importer the civilian sector. of security and at the receiving end of technology Interestingly, the Indian Defence and aerospace denial regimes and sanctions. market is also among the most attractive globally This abject dependence on foreign supplies for key and offers a huge potential. It is estimated to spend technologies and platforms has put India in a very US$ 250 billion in capital acquisitions over the vulnerable state of national security. Not only are period 2014-2027. we at the receiving end of technology denials but are also having serious problems of life cycle support. Defence Ecosystem Manufacturing under â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Transfer of Technologyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; (ToT) A vibrant Defence ecosystem needs to be a capable has given us the build-to-print capability but has not matrix and a judicious mix of technology and encouraged domestic R&D which is so essential for manufacturing ecosystems. Technology could be a achieving self-reliance. Also, function of innovation, R&D it is the DPSUs which steer and development of disruptive Entrepreneurship in India technologies which are often production and technology absorption in India. Lack of spearheaded by technology has gone mainstream effective competition from start-ups in MSME sector. private industry has led to a When it comes to with the number of manufacturing, the Indian situation where the hunger startups crossing 4,200 is not there for developing industry has taken rapid state-of-the-art new systems. strides in the field of As fallout of this, India has perpetually lagged behind manufacturing and is competing with the best on the world leaders in Defence technology. the global platform. Today, we have technologically In order to achieve the twin objectives of advanced manufacturing capabilities which self-sufficiency and self-reliance, it is very important are driven by highly focussed and educated workforce. that India develops a vibrant and strong indigenous However, Defence manufacturing in India is not

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

Strengthening defence production CONCRETE FUNDING

aligned to the manufacturing capability existing in industry even remotely. There are barely any the country. Fortunately, the present government has Defence start-ups in the country today and the realised this fact and its ‘Make in India’ campaign, a existing ones are struggling to survive. This poses truly national movement, is expected to address this a huge problem in our requirement of establishing issue – to promote Defence manufacturing in India a vibrant Defence industrial base and achieve and develop it as a hub for same. technology self-reliance. Dr Vikram Sarabhai once Let’s now come to the other area – technology. If we said: “If we are to play a meaningful role nationally, look at the performance of various sectors in India and in the comity of nations, we must be second to over the last few years, the services sector, primarily none in the application of advanced technologies to IT and Telecom, clearly stands out as the leader. With problems of man and society”. innovation and technology as foundation stones, It is, therefore, imperative that we find a resolute these sectors have been creating waves the world solution to this problem and find means to enable over. The start-up scene in these sectors has gained flourishing of Defence technological base in the country. gravity-defying momentum. Nasscom’s latest report, titled ‘Start-up India Momentous Rise of the Indian MSMEs Start-up Ecosystem’ says “the Indian technology The MSME’s play a pivotal role in Defence start-ups landscape has seen a tremendous growth manufacturing sector and act as incubation sector in the emergence of innovative start-ups and creative for Defence technology. The essentials of a vibrant entrepreneurs. In terms of providing a conducive Defence industrial base – R&D, innovation and ecosystem for the disruptive technology startups to thrive, India – are actually the areas Start-up scene in these sectors has emerged as the of strength for MSMEs. (IT and telecommunications) has fastest growing base of Even though the start-ups worldwide”. Central government gained gravity-defying momentum h a s a n n o u n c e d India today is one among the first five numerous steps largest start-up communities in the world with the over the last few years to encourage MSMEs in number of startups crossing 4,200. Even Prime Defence production, few steps have actually been Minister Narendra Modi made start-ups the central implemented. More so, the lack of assured market theme of his Republic Day speech. Entrepreneurship in and seriously skewed risk-return profile make MSME India has gone mainstream, spreading to every model a non-sustainable one. The major issues which corner of the country. prevent the establishment of suitable ecosystem for MSMEs are as follows: No Defence Start-ups • Lack of policy direction and accountability The problem starts when we come to start-ups in the This industry is unique in that it’s a monopsony Defence domain. Innovation often rests on start-ups in which the single buyer, the government, is and MSMEs. This meteoric rise of entrepreneurship also the regulator that lays down procurement in the other sectors has not touched the Defence procedures. Unfortunately, there is huge lack of

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

accountability and policy direction on the regulator. Projects tend to get mired in bureaucracy and red tapism and guaranteed orders have taken months and in some cases years to come through, thereby putting MSMEs in a wait and watch mode for months and sometimes even years. • Financing Defence production needs long-term and large investment, cutting-edge technology with low economies of scale. The government on its part did realise the importance of this and launched the novel idea of Technology Development Fund. However, the same has not yet been operationalised. Similarly, no concrete developments have taken place on the separate R&D fund set up by the MoD in 2011 to outsource R&D to Indian companies, including MSMEs. • Lending Today, MSMEs are embroiled in a vicious cycle –delayed payments by vendorsie DRDO/DPSUs/OFBs and extremely high cost of capital making survival /sustenance difficult. The lending market rate today is as high as 14-15 per cent. It is this malicious circle which makes most of the MSMEs in the country unviable business propositions. • Continuity of orders MSMEs are dependent on MoD or system integrators or DRDO for their orders, which in most cases are for prototype design and development with very few numbers for series production. The cases for repeat /continuous orders are far and few. This makes the business case of MSMEs highly unsustainable. • L-1 Syndrome The practice of L1 approach, rather than lower total cost of ownership, makes things very difficult for the MSMEs. • Trust deficit There exists a general trust deficit between the customer

and supplier. Also, the customer is very demanding and the MSME supplier is often treated badly.

Elements of Transformation

Einstein once famously remarked that, “To do the same thing the same way and expect different result is madness”. We need a paradigm shift and as such we need to do things differently. There is clear intent demonstrated by the present government but that intent needs to get translated into action. Some of the actions which can kick-start innovation are: ● Stream-lining of procurement procedures so that programmes are able to adhere to specified timelines ● 30 per cent advance must be provided, as was the practice few years ago ● Cost of Capital for MSMEs be reduced to about 6-8 per cent only. We need to have separate provisions for lending to Defence MSMEs ● Timely payment of dues should be mandated by law ● Technology Development Fund – should be operationalised at the earliest and made available to MSMEs for technology products ● Tax holidays and further incentives for R&D ● Stream-lining of offset policy with innovative components, with thrust to MSME sector

Conclusion

No nation aspiring to be even a regional power can expect to achieve it without being substantively self-reliant in Defence production. What is needed for that is appreciation of the characteristics of the Defence industry and coordination among the multiple stakeholders for indigenous capability development. India needs to adopt a long-term approach to prepare a policy regime that would encourage India’s best brains and firms to enter the field of Defence production and promote innovation, efficiency and cost cutting.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

MSMEs NATIONAL MISSION

Strengthening

Defence Industrial Base Strengthening of the Defence Industrial Base is an essential pre-requisite to achieve the larger objective of Make in India. Make in India for domestic requirements and for exports is a national vision. To achieve this, enhancement and strengthening of MSME sector in Defence must be taken up as a national mission.

icro, Small and Medium Enterprises form the backbone of Indian Defence production. There are more than 6,000 such MSMEs already involved in the Defence equipment production chain, with majority of them acting as sub-contractors to Defence PSUs and other private sector organisations. However, with the new opening afforded by DPP-06 onwards with Offsets becoming compulsory for all ‘Buy-Global’ procurements costing above ` 300 crore, MSMEs have started directly participating in manufacture and direct export of indigenously made sub-units to OEMs abroad. To further encourage and facilitate OEMs to choose MSMEs as their Indian Offset Partners (IOP), multiplication factor of 1.5 times for Offset Credits is provided to MSME’s supplies in the DPP. This has been a great boon for MSMEs in bagging Offset Contracts from OEMs. New DPP-16 for which contours have been announced during January 2016 by Defence Minister provides more opportunities to MSMEs for R&D by establishment of separate R&D Fund for MSMEs and relaxation of norms for selecting companies for ‘MAKE’ projects so that MSMEs can directly take part in supplies to MOD.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

However, following additional support from Government of India/State Governments/DPSUs/DRDO/Bigger private sector, firms are needed to further strengthen the role of MSMEs in Defence production so that they can withstand following challenges: • Single customer: Heavy dependence on DRDO /DPSUs/large primes, for orders and hence low bargaining power. • Technology Limitation: Most defence systems are today based on foreign design and the complete technology is not made available by OEMs. Hence, MSMEs are often unable to gain access and guidance on the desired technology. They also need help in understanding IPR and other legal issues. • Certification and Quality Issues: Getting certifications for processes and quality checks, which are an essential requirement for OEMs is a challenge for India-based MSMEs, as these need costly EMI/EMC and ESS plants and equipment, which require heavy investments, which the MSMEs are not in a position to fund. • Lack of Facilities: There is no common infrastructure such as testing, special processes, inventory storage etc, in India which can be used by MSMEs directly. Additional investment, if this is to be established by MSMEs will be a burden to the smaller players as orders can be obtained by MSMEs from MoD, Primes, FOEMs under Offset, User and orders only pursuant to a development contract. Hence, MSMEs need hand holding from MoD. • Funding: Funding cost to a SME Unit is at least 10-15X more than a large company. (70 L vs< 5L cost of bank guarantee BG). Not only is this due to limited collateral, the limits are meager in the sector where the requirements are significant. There is no structural mechanism available to MSMEs to avail non-collateralised funding to issue BGs. MoD has no promotional schemes for SMEs and does not provide any concession like reduced requirement of BG from SME units in MoD tenders/contracts and acceptance of

MSME-Certification and/or Corporate Big Private Sector Industries Guarantees, instead of BGs. due to criteria laid down MoD presently should have specific institutional for ‘MAKE’ projects such mechanism for development of MSME sector. In as ` 1000.00 crore sales order to promote small industries, a four-pronged etc, must be divided into strategy is suggested: two categories: ‘MAKE-Big • DRDO: DRDO labs are already sub-contracting Industries’ as at present laid quite a few number of sub-systems/modules down and ‘MAKE-MSMEs’ to MSMEs. However, there is a need to and earmark minimum hand-hold MSMEs by providing advances and ` 500 crore per year for Col HS Shankar disbursement through a stage wise payments without insisting on BGs VSM (Retd) (but with Corporate Guarantees), providing test simplified selection criteria. Chairman & Managing and qualification facilities free of cost. Also, Progressive Advance up to Director Alpha Design DRDO labs must insist on production agencies 85 per cent by stage wise Technologies Pvt Ltd, to ensure that they buy such modules developed payments with Corporate Bangalore by MSMEs only from the same MSMEs for the Guarantees (and not BGs), bulk manufacture. It is also necessary that FERV are also to be provided DRDO considers MSMEs also as Prime Production to MSMEs. Agencies for their products and not just hand over such projects to DPSUs only. MoD Contract With MSMEs DRDO may be mandated to spend at least • Bank Guarantee for EMD, Advance (15 per cent), 30 per cent of its budget allocation in MSME Performance BG, Warranty BG are being insisted development programmes. as per relevant DPP. Banks ask SMEs to put • Outsourcing by DPSUs/OFB/large Primes: 100 per cent amount in FD and then only issue Large primes, participating BG (most of MSMEs cannot give in contracts with MoD DPSUs should be asked Collateral Guarantees which under the DPP, may be large industries/PSUs can to provide MSMEs same only give). Hence, instead of BG mandated to outsource a fixed portion of the contract say from bank, corporate guarantee payment terms which 50 per cent to MSMEs, they from MSMEs signed by DPSUs get from MoD must be mandated to play CMD should be accepted. their role as envisaged in the • FER V for contracts MSMED Act of 2006. DPSUs must provide FERVs already signed by MOD with MSMEs and are to MSMEs, progressive advance upto 85 per cent still current: There are a few Contracts MOD (which DPSUs get) with Corporate Guarantee (and has signed with MSMEs, some of them even without insisting on BGs). 2 or 3 year’s back. At the time Contract was • Offsets: Main purpose of Offsets is to develop signed, FE rate was US$ 1 = ` 44.5 Now it is manufacturing infrastructure in India for US$ 1 = ` 69.5 For imported components, MOD Defence equipment. Over a period of time, Micro doesn’t provide FERV (imported components value Industries should become Small Scale Industries, may vary between 50 per cent to 70 per cent Small to Medium and Medium to Large. DPSUs of Contract value). Hence, MSMEs are in tremendous and Big Private Industries already have made loss. MSMEs also compete with DPSUs & foreign large investments and have huge infrastructure. vendors, who would both get benefit of FE variation. MSMEs do not have these facilities and hence, However, MSMEs are in a bid disadvantage. MSMEs must get large proportion of Offsets. Hence, should be provided FERV relief immediately for Foreign OEMs should be mandated to procure current and remaining Contracts where applicable. a fixed portion of the obligation (50 per cent) • Advances: DPSUs get 85 per cent progressive from the MSMEs only. OEMs already have a advance (in stages) for procuring components, mechanism to identify and through their best WIP etc, whereas MSMEs as sub-contractors practices at their factories and through their /vendors to DPSUs do not get it and the Tier I and II suppliers. Hence, OEMs should be payments will be made by DPSUs to MSMEs only asked to develop chosen MSMEs. This may be on completion of their deliveries. This should be incentivised through a system of multipliers as changed and DPSUs should be asked to provide presently catered for MSME (ie, 1.5 times). MSMEs same payment terms which DPSUs get • Funding: The proposed Technology Development from MoD. Fund, may be reserved for funding development Strengthening of the Defence Industrial Base is an projects and small production products from the essential pre-requisite to achieve the larger objective MSME sector. On success of funding, the portfolio of Make in India. Make in India for domestic may be increased in subsequent years. In addition requirements and for exports is a national vision. To ‘MAKE’ projects, which are at present debarred achieve this, enhancement and strengthening of to MSMEs (who are the only ones who have core MSME sector in Defence must be taken up as a technologies) and reserved only for DPSUs and national mission.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

MSMEs in defence VITAL ROLE

MSMEs In DPP 2016

MSMEs are our best bet in bringing technology, flexible as they are and having a capability to adapt quickly. A well-structured and tiered network of MSMEs, mid-level industry to be the Tier 1 and 2 and then the large integrators, is the order of the day.

ost-independence, the Defence industry in India, was classified under the strategic sector and placed under the reserved list, thereby entitling only the State owned companies to participate in Defence production. Thus, we created the large pool of nine Defence Public Sector Undertakings, 39 Ordnance Factories and 50 odd DRDO labs. The sector was opened for the first time to private sector participation in 2001, when the Defence sector was removed from the Reserved Category and placed in the Licenced Category with 100 per cent private participation and a restrictive 26 per cent FDI cap. This has, however, been further liberalised to 49 per cent in 2014. Defence procurement in India is undertaken by Ministry of Defence. Procurement is under two heads, Capital procurement and Revenue procurement. Capital procurement deals with the purchase of new equipment in Defence and aerospace, while Revenue procurement is for repair, maintenance and upgradation/modernisation of equipment in use. The Capital procurement is governed by the DPP (Defence Procurement Procedure) presently DPP 2013 is in vogue, since its evolution in 2002 (the first DPP, which has constantly undergone amendments taking into consideration the industry expectations). Also, the requirement of ILs (Industry Licenses) as governed by PN 2 of 2002 erstwhile has been greatly liberalised by the PN 3 of 2014 series, with only a few products mandated for compulsory licensing. Government has taken proactive steps to reach out to industry through a series of reforms, such as the promulgation of Companies Act 2013, consolidated FDI circular of 2015, Press Notes to deregulate licensing and notifying Defence products. MoD has also recently,

March 2016 Defence AND security alert

removed the abeyance order placed on â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Servicesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; since its August 2012 notification. Constitution of the committee of experts for inviting suggestions for amendments to DPP 2013 and the Task Force headed by Dr Aatre for suggesting a modus operandi for selection of Strategic Partners is a giant step.

Where Do MSMEs Figure?

From its inception, the DPP did not find any mention of MSMEs. Even the Defence Production Policy, the only policy document in this sector from the MoD, also avoided any reference to MSMEs. The MSMED Act of 2006, that has come into effect beginning this year, provides for encouragement to MSMEs including institutionalising funds. The public procurement policy provides for compulsory sourcing of 20 per cent from MSMEs by all departments. The Offsets Guidelines 2012, for the first time provided for a multiplier to the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for sourcing from MSMEs. In order to fulfill their offset obligations, OEMs are required to select a suitable Indian partner also known as the Indian Offset Partner (IOP). If the IOP happened to be an MSME then MoD would grant a multiplier of 150 per cent, to the OEM. This is an added advantage to the OEM for whom an investment of say US$ 10 million in respect of a direct purchase would accrue an offset credits of US$ 15 million; as against a simple 1:1 or only US$10 million. In other words if an OEM had an offset obligation of say US$ 300 million, then by choice of MSMEs, they could invest just US$ 200 million to achieve their target. This has been integrated into the DPP 2013 that is in vogue. Other than this, there has been no other policy objective or enablement to encourage the MSMEs.

There could be many reasons for this, (i) Defence sector is a strategic sector and hence is quality conscious; (ii) Operational preparedness and stringent requirements of Defence systems demand high quality infrastructure and skills.

Future Of MSMEs

Two multi-disciplinary committees, instituted for the first time by the MoD, to suggest changes to the DPP 2013, have made certain important observations. Although the Dhirendra Singh Committee has done little in terms of enabling the MSMEs through reservations, they have made certain recommendations that could be of significance. One of the recommendations is in terms of creating an Innovative Funding mechanism, to be able to infuse capital into MSMEs in a highly competitive manner. In this case, the OEMs may make an investment into a VC (Venture Capital Fund), which would further make a downstream investment into MSMEs in Defence sector. Typically, if OEMs even set aside 10 per cent of their offsets obligations into such a fund, we have a fund size of 10 per cent of US$ 8 billion. So, even at very modest and conservative funding from OEMs, we are able to conceive a fund of a size of US$ 800 million. Even if this fund is visualised over a period of say, 16 years, there is a potential of infusing at least US$ 50 million each year. This could be very useful to the MSMEs as they would be able to access a foreign funding along with management and technology support. For the fund to do well, the companies that have invested must do well and since OEMs would have an indirect interest they would also nurture and provide mentorship, as necessary. The fund manager, of course, will have to spearhead this fund in a more unconventional manner, to be able to grow the MSMEs with support as required, besides funding support. Of the announcements made regarding the upcoming DPP 2016, the Defence Minister, has walked the talk and made some very progressive inclusions.

All development projects in MAKE-I, that are less than INR 10 crore, will be reserved for MSMEs. Government will give the first right of refusal to the MSMEs and only when MSMEs are not able to meet the requirement, will it be thrown up for grabs for big boys. Similarly, under MAKE-III, government has Ganesh Raj reserved all development The writer is Tax Partner and projects with a value of less than National Policy Leader, Policy INR 3 crore, exclusively for Advisory Group at EY India. MSMEs. MoD funds upto 90 per cent of all projects, MoD has committed to also refund the reminder 10 per cent in MAKE-I programmes and the entire development cost in MAKE-II/III programmes, should the MoD not place an order within 24 months of its successful development. This is a welcome step for the industry, especially for the MSMEs. Never before has the government come forward with such a progressive suggestion, integrating complete protection to the Industry, completely in sync with ‘Make in India’. This is indeed a very welcome step, but the question arises, can the government do more?

Can Government Do More?

Indeed, if the path we undertake has a definite aim. Let us set the objective first and then rest will follow. In this era of ‘Make in India’, objective of the government must be to strengthen the Defence Industrial Base. Well, the base of the pyramid lies at the very bottom and at the bottom are the MSMEs. If India lives in villages, industry lives in MSMEs. MSMEs are struck by cash burden, by the way of cash flows to meet opex and various guarantees they need to furnish. Add to this the NCNC (No Cost and No Commitment) trials carried out by the Armed Forces, a huge cost for the MSME units to bear. It is, therefore, a good idea for the government to consider innovative form of funding as described above as also create a corpus to meet the trials and guarantee expenditure on MSME MAKE-Procedure behalf of the MSME units. As per the MoD Press Note of Provisions of MSMED Act be If India lives in villages, January, 2016 MAKE procedure made applicable to the Defence industry lives in MSMEs in the DPP will include besides Procurement Procedure others a separate module too. This can be done for all for MSMEs. MAKE procedure incorporates two low value procurements and those that are borne distinct modules. One (MAKE–I), where government out of revenue expenditure. funding takes place for an envisaged development project and the other (MAKE–II/III), where industry Conclusion funds itself for an envisaged requirement. While the MSMEs are our best bet in bringing technology, former is technologically more challenging causing flexible as they are and having a capability to adapt the government to step in with its full might, the quickly. They are our backbone and they create latter is one where industry may not face a dire capability. Big boys create capacity based on the technology challenge. In other words, MAKE-I capability that exists around them. A well-structured programmes are those where the risk to industry is and tiered network of MSMEs, mid-level industry to high and MAKE-II/III is that where the development be the Tier-1 and 2 and then the large integrators, is risk is low to the industry. the order of the day. Let us begin with MSMEs.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

MSMEs PROMISING PROSPECTS

MSMEs Strengthening The Defence Potential For the MSMEs the Defence sector will be a sunrise industry for many years to come. The environment is positive and helpful and hence the chances of success are greater than before.

icro, Small and Medium Enterprises Scorpene Submarines, MMRCA, Guns from BAE (MSMEs) have been contributing Systems, Helicopters from Kamov, Transport Aircraft to the Indian Defence efforts since from Airbus, Tactical Communication Systems, Independence. But these were mainly in Battle Management Systems, Soldier as a system, the areas of the revenue expenditure of the Defence Missile systems like Akash, Nuclear Submarines, forces or in the areas of maintenance, supplies to Fifth Generation aircraft etc. All these will provide the factories of the Ordnance Board or the Defence immense opportunities for Indian private sector Public Sector Undertakings etc. Looking at the capital including MSMEs either by way of offsets or by way equipment scene, the role of MSMEs and in fact, of manufacturing etc. the role of private sector so far have been limited The specific opportunities for MSMEs will come since more than 70 per cent of the capital equipment from Public Sector Units (PSU)/Units under the required by the Indian Defence Ordnance Factories Board (OFB), forces is imported. from Defence Research The tax structure works projects Unfortunately for India, since and Development Organisation against Indian MSMEs Independence and till recently, the (DRDO) laboratories, large private Government held the view that it companies, offset programmes, was not safe to give access to the Indian private sector partnering smaller Original Equipment Manufacturers in Defence manufacturing while it was prepared to (OEMs) from abroad who are the suppliers to the import from the private industry overseas! At least for Tier-I contractors to Indian Defence etc. the past decade, the Government has seen the folly of this policy and have opened this sector for the private Harnessing This Potential industry. While we see some progress, due to the nature With careful planning, MSMEs can participate in the of this industry and due to the time lost in technology emerging Defence business in a big way. The way to development in India thanks to the restrictive policies, go about it will be as follows: the pace has been slow. • Identify the specific area to be addressed based The situation is likely to change dramatically on the available skill sets or based on the due to the recent thrust on ‘Make in India’. The analysis of the future potential. • Build a reasonable level of in-house competency. MSMEs can look forward to a very strong market potential in the near future. This will also involve hiring people who will understand the Defence specifications, Potential manufacturing processes, testing methods etc. The Indian Defence buys approximately ` 80,000 crore MSMEs must work closely with the Defence worth of capital equipment every year. This is poised organisations to deliver the products at the to increase by 20 per cent on an annual basis. But, required quality and reliability to enable the at the present moment more than 70 per cent of these Indian Defence to buy locally. In the past, are imported and the balance bought from PSUs and the experience of the Defence organisations units under OFB. With this thrust on ‘Make in India’ in this regard has been sketchy and hence, and the liberalisation introduced in this area, large there was always a comfort in importing the Indian private sector companies as well as foreign products from proven sources. original equipment manufacturers will be allowed to • Work closely with the relevant Defence Public manufacture Defence equipment in India. Apart from Sector Undertaking or the unit in OFB. This this, the Government is also insisting on an effective will give a good technical and managerial offset programme which will ensure that the Indian background and a good understanding of the industry including MSMEs can get a share of at least requirements of the Defence business. Once this 30 per cent to 50 per cent of the large value programmes. is done, the unit has many options. Based on these policy measures, the Government • The unit can try for offset business with the has also cleared a number of projects for OEMs that require local support in the chosen manufacturing in India like the Light Combat Aircraft, area. One must understand that OEMs will

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

•

demand very high level of quality and reliability but will pay a very low margin. In the identified area, the unit can tie up with an overseas MSME for technology, finance and if required marketing support. In this case, the unit should identify overseas MSMEs that are Tier-II suppliers to the OEMs who have received large orders from the Indian Defence or likely to receive such orders. For example one can try tie-up with some of the suppliers to Dassault for their Rafale aircraft which will be bought by India in the immediate future. The unit can also become a vendor to the newly emerging private industry in India. Large business houses like the Tata Group, Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, Punj Lloyd, HCL, Kalyani, Reliance Industries etc are planning large projects which will open a big subcontract market for the MSMEs. The flipside is that the margins available will be low in this segment as well. Since the cycle times in this industry are long, it is also necessary for the unit to make financial arrangements which are specific to the nature of this business. Based on the skill sets of the unit, one can also look at participating in the indigenisation efforts of the armed forces. The armed forces, PSUs and units under OFB have indigenisation cells for each of their different arms which are very keen to work with MSMEs for indigenisation of a lot of capital equipment and suppliers. DRDO laboratories and some other laboratories in CSIR do provide technology for specific Defence related equipment. The unit works closely with the laboratories which are relevant to the area chosen. This way there will be an easier access to technology which is relevant to the Indian conditions and will come at a reasonable cost. The unit can then build on this technology and supply the products and systems to the Indian Defence. The Government’s ‘Make in India’ policy will provide a lot of thrust to this area and hence MSMEs have a real opportunity to build their business. Due to the thrust of the Government on the ‘Make in India’ initiative, a number of overseas OEMs will invest in manufacturing facilities in India. This will again throw up a lot of opportunities for MSMEs.

Challenges

While all these opportunities will open up huge markets for MSMEs, one has to understand challenges and problems faced by this industry. The MSMEs, through various organisations have been representing to the Government of India to resolve many of these issues and it is hoped that the Defence Ministry will come out with revised guidelines which will address many of these issues. We will know when the new Defence Procurement Procedures will becomes operational.

Some of the key challenges faced by MSMEs are: • Long cycle times: The cycle times in the Defence projects are far too long. It is difficult for MSMEs to sustain through such time frame. The processes are also multifold starting with request for N Ramachandran information, screening of The writer is Managing the respondents, issuing Director of MEL Systems RFQs, receiving quotes, and Services Ltd, a company technical evaluation, engaged in Automation and NC/NC trials, shortlisting control, defence electronics of vendors, opening of the and Automatic Test Equipment. commercial bids, evaluating the commercial bids, deciding and placing the order on the L1 vendor etc. These activities take a long time and in many instances the requirements are cancelled or postponed resulting in enormous loss to the MSME vendors. While Defence Procurement Procedures (DPP) specifies the timeframe for each of these activities, inevitably each of the projects takes a long time. On many instances it is seen that the number of individuals handling each of these activities are far too many and many of them are not stakeholders in the project. It is necessary for Defence Ministry to work out a system by which everyone involved in the processes including the finance personnel are made responsible for the final delivery. • NC/NC Trials: In the case of Defence purchase, generally there is a requirement for providing prototypes at no cost/no commitment basis. This actually prevents Indian companies, especially MSMEs to bid for many of the projects even though they are technically qualified. This clause actually protects established overseas vendors and will always work against the spirit of ‘Make in India’. This clause needs to be scraped. • Payment terms: Overseas companies enjoy favourable payment terms like advance payment, payment on shipment etc. But in most of the cases, the Indian companies are required to complete the project and install the equipment before they get the bulk of their money. The Indian companies are also required to provide many bank guarantees which are generally not applicable to overseas vendors. The overseas vendors are also paid compensation or escalation for delay in projects. On the other hand, this is generally not applicable for Indian companies. MSMEs should have better payment terms than the overseas vendors. They should be compensated for any delay in payment. Key components are imported and any delay can cause the unit to suffer losses due to foreign exchange fluctuation as well. While the armed forces at least pay 15 per cent advance, the PSUs do not pay any advance and generally pay after

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

MSMEs PROMISING PROSPECTS

•

supply and installation or usage. It is necessary for the PSUs and the units under the OFB to support MSMEs financially by providing some advance as well as provide progressive payments. Uncertainty of the project implementation: In many instances, the projects get shelved after the entire process has been gone through. The MSMEs spend a fortune in the bidding process itself and hence they suffer a huge loss after such a thing happens. The Defence Ministry should ensure that once the process gets underway, there should not be any cancellations and if there are any cancellations, the MSMEs should be compensated. The tax structure: The tax structure itself works against Indian MSMEs. When Defence units import products, it is duty free and • Manpower: Since this industry is new, it is without VAT. But when the Indian units supply difficult to get adequate manpower. They are to Defence, there will be exemptions for Excise in great demand since many large companies Duty but VAT has to be paid. It is also possible including multinationals are vying with each other for the Defence to provide exemption for customs to compete for the available manpower. Acquiring duty but the rate varies based on the products and retaining the right talent will be one of the /usages and it is quite complicated. One way to most daunting challenges which will be faced by do this is to ensure that all taxes are abolished the MSME units. It is prudent to retain a few key for Defence supplies. personnel at any cost and set off a process to take Finance: Since cycle times are very long in care of the inevitable employee attrition. the case of Defence supplies, the working capital management is quite a challenge. Information The banks should work out special provisions Unlike in the past, MSMEs can have access to the for funding the project, funding receivables information on the Defence requirements, tenders, etc. The Government should give directives to specifications, standards etc through the Net. the banks on this subject. The development cost Defence organisations, DRDO, PSUs etc have done for MSMEs is very high in case of developing enormous amount of work to provide organised any technology in this area. Since these products information to the industry and all their departments are not for mass market, the cost of development have websites giving their requirements and cannot be amortised over high volumes. Hence, the details of the tenders. it is essential for The Defence organisations the Government to also conduct periodic Make in India initiative fund the development, conferences to share especially for MSMEs. the information with the will throw up a lot of The Government has industry. Most of these opportunities for MSMEs some schemes for large Defence organisations have projects but it must an indigenisation cell which evolve same schemes for MSMEs as well. is trying to work closely with the Indian industry Test labs: MSMEs find it very difficult to get towards helping the private industry to participate their products tested for Defence applications in their ‘Make in India’ efforts. The leading PSUs since there are not too many laboratories like HAL, BEL, BDL etc have indigenisation cells for this purpose. The existing ones are very to accelerate the efforts to ‘Make in India’. All their expensive as well. Hence, the industry has been requirements and specifications are in their websites. requesting the Government of India to set up Additionally, all their tenders are published in the few laboratories to test the products for Defence website: www.tenders.gov.in. application. Testing services should be provided The Defence Ministry is also conducting many at a reasonable cost to the MSMEs. exhibitions in India like Aero India and Defexpo which Long-term contracts: Since the development are fast becoming trade shows of international repute. costs are high in this area, the Defence forces For the MSMEs, the Defence sector will be a sunrise and the PSUs should work with the selected industry for many years to come. But to get the MSMEs on long-term contracts rather than benefits of this market growth, MSMEs are well going for tenders for annual requirements. It advised to plan their strategies in advance and be will also be prudent to identify select MSMEs prepared to face and overcome the challenges for product development and production of inherent to this industry. The environment is such products so that the skill sets available positive and helpful and hence the chances of are optimally utilised. success are greater than before.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

know the chief ssb

Archana Ramasundaram IPS

Director General SASHASTRA SEEMA BAL

mt Archana Ramasundaram is currently posted as Director General, Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) wef February 3, 2016. SSB is presently mandated to guard Indo-Nepal (1,751 kms) and Indo-Bhutan (699 kms) borders and also declared the Lead Intelligence Agency for these two borders. She is the first women Police Officer to head a para-military force in India. She is a decorated officer with Presidentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Police Medal for her Meritorious and Distinguished Services in 1995 and 2005 respectively. Smt Archana Ramasundaram, an IPS Officer of 1980 batch, is a post graduate in Economics from the University of Rajasthan where she also worked as a Lecturer before she was appointed to the Indian Police Service and allotted to Tamil Nadu Cadre and served as Assistant Superintendent of Police in Coimbatore, Madurai and Salem. Consequent to her promotion, she worked with distinction in several posts such as the Superintendent of Police, Nilgiris District, AIG Headquarters and also as AIG (Technical Services). She is an MSc in Criminology from the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA. She was selected among the best international Students for having secured the highest Grade Point Average of 4.0. She has worked as the SP (Prohibition Enforcement Wing), Vellore Zone where she took strict action against a large number of bootleggers and prohibition offenders. She was also the SP (Vigilance and Anti-corruption) at Chennai. She was promoted to the rank of DIG in 1995 where she worked in various capacities such as DIG, Headquarters, DIG (Civil Supplies) and DIG (Training) and DIG of Police, Vellore Range. The officer has served as DIG in the

CBI from 1999-2006 and handled several important cases efficaciously. She was later promoted to the rank of the Joint Director in 2002. Smt Archana Ramasundaram, after completing her tenure successfully in CBI, went back to Tamil Nadu in May, 2006. Soon after that, she was promoted as the Additional Director General of Police where she served in various capacities such as ADGP (Economic Offences Wing), ADGP (Admn), ADGP (Crime Branch, CID) and ADGP (Training) etc. She also held additional charge of the TN Police Housing Corporation. She was promoted to the rank of DGP in November, 2012 and posted as the DGP/Chairperson, Tamil Nadu Uniformed Services Recruitment Board. In May, 2014 she came on central deputation for the second time and joined as the Additional Director, Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI). In June 2015, she was promoted and posted as the Director General, National Crime Records Bureau at New Delhi.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

MSMEs PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP

Restructuring Indian

Mechanism to harness the technological capability and making advancement in manufacturing is a key to achieve self-reliance in Defence sector. Both, State-owned enterprises and private sector have a leading role to play in Defence production.

ndian Defence manufacturing sector has come of age with the government deciding to award major combat systems and upgradation programmes of existing weapon platforms/systems to the Indian industry under the ‘Make’ category. The new policy outline on Defence procurement has brought forth a more dynamic approach to address the issue of self-reliance and indigenisation in this strategic sector. The increase in the contract threshold from INR 300 crore to 2,000 crore in Offset, Modified L-1 Model, new category Indigenously Designed, Developed and Manufactured (IDDM) and push for ‘Make in India’ initiative is going to be a major game changer. Therefore, one can expect the new Defence Production Procedure (DPP-2016) and Offset policy will be more radically different from the previous versions and will attempt to facilitate a smoother transaction of procurement that had become cumbersome over the years directly affecting the operational readiness of the Indian Armed Forces. At the same time, one has to wait and watch how the new policy guideline is going to transform Defence manufacturing capacity in the country.

Embargoes On Dual-use Technology

Defence manufacturing capability is imperative to address the issue of self-reliance and indigenisation. There are, however, three major factors which deprived India from achieving eminence in manufacturing sector, particularly in the Defence sector. Firstly, India missed out the industrial revolution under British Raj and was reduced to a raw material supplier. Secondly, India’s Non-Aligned policy antagonised Western powers and high-tech weapon systems were denied to India. Further, technological denial regimes (Nuclear Suppliers Group, Wassenaar Arrangement, Australia Group and Missile Technology Control Regime) clamped ban on ‘dual-use’ technology export to India. Thirdly, Defence technology/scientific research were never the focus of Central leadership. These above factors have kept India away from achieving self-sufficiency in Defence production and led to dependency on foreign OEMs for the niche technology. During early stage of Defence production, government’s primary aim was to achieve self-sufficiency in weapon platforms. To improve upon Defence production, the State-owned enterprises (OFs and DPSUs) had been created after India’s Independence. However, the gap in technology had forced India to rely upon licensed production to cater

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

to the need of Indian Armed Forces. Temporarily, the licensed production boosted India’s ability to attain self-sufficiency in developing weapon systems. In the long run this has not led to any significant change in country’s Defence production capacity. Moreover, with the lack of investment in scientific research, the Defence R&D has not progressed to address the issue of indigenisation of Defence equipment. India’s spending on Defence R&D is minimal compared to global standards. Speaking at a directors’ conference in New Delhi, Director General S Christopher pointed to the need for enhanced budget and augmentation of scientific manpower. A mere 5-6 per cent of Defence budget for R&D is inadequate to meet the aspirations of India’s Defence needs. At the same time, scientific community has also expressed the importance of Defence Industrial Base. In the ‘Twenty-first Meeting of Scientific Advisory Committee to the Cabinet (SAC-C)’ Dr VK Saraswat clearly stated that ‘Defence systems cannot be achieved without enhancing the Defence Industrial Base in the country that could take up production of indigenously developed systems’. He also suggested creation of additional capacities in production in private sector Industries also – both the large industries (as System Integrators) as well as the SMEs for niche systems.

DPSUs Failed To Innovate

India is facing distinct issues in manufacturing sector. State-owned enterprises (DPSUs and OFs) adopted three steps (1) Built-to-Print (2) Built-to-Specification, (3) Built-to-Design. State-owned enterprises have moved up the value chain from being ‘Built-to-print’ to ‘Built-to-Design’, but fell short of making any impact on indigenisation value chart. State-owned enterprises have not utilised the Defence infrastructure to its full potential and therefore, it benefited less from licensed

Defence Industry production. In fact, DPSUs and OFs never had any formal technology absorption centres to receive the technologies from the OEMs. Therefore, the transfer of technology (ToT) hasn’t enabled DPSUs and OFs to innovate and come out with upgraded versions or reduce the import content. Another reason, often cited by strategic experts for poor performance of State-owned enterprises is absence of competition, assured orders and absolute monopoly of Defence equipment market. So, this has led to complacency, which left little room for product innovation, technology upgradation, quality control, export promotion, finance and human resource management. Moreover, State-owned enterprises have lacked capacity to support rapidly modernising Indian Armed Forces. The above reason has not only delayed the procurement cycle, but it also held back Defence manufacturing sector from any major transformation. In the post-liberalisation period, Indian private sector has shown great resilience particularly in skill-intensive sectors such as automobiles, engineering goods and pharmaceutical sector etc. After Parliament committee approval, in 2001 Indian private sector was allowed to participate in the Defence production. Initially, Defence manufacturing never interested private sector due to the many entry barriers. Only few major and small scale industries have limited exposure working in tandem with DRDO, DPSUs and OFs.

SP model will be created in addition to the existing capacity and infrastructure in public sector. This would allow them to participate in ‘Buy and Make’ category and Prakash Panneerselvam The writer is Post-Doctoral government-to-government Associate, International procurement programmes, says Strategic and Security Studies Laxman Behera of IDSA. Programme, NIAS-Banglore. The SP model would elevate private sector capacity to parity with State-owned enterprises. Meshing State-owned enterprises and private sector resource and capability will reduce production cost and speed up delivery of weapons platforms. But, many of the large private sectors have no capability in Defence manufacturing. Therefore, new policy guidelines emphasised that Indigenously Designed, Developed and Manufactured (IDDM) platform cannot be achieved until private sector has been provided adequate handholding support by State-owned enterprises, DRDO and various other scientific labs.

Enabling Private Sector To Grow

India has recorded number of successes both in the DRDO labs, DPSUs, and the private sector. The lessons learnt from these successes have to be implemented across the aspiring defence entrants in India. In Defence, the R&D focus has remained largely Role of SMEs in the public domain with government institutions Particularly, the small and medium scale industry like Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), National played a very crucial role in the area of Defence Aerospace Laboratories (NAL), Defence Research manufacture. Ordnance Factories are procuring and Development Organisation (DRDO), Indian a significant amount of input material from SMEs Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and Council of (about 50 per cent). Similarly, the large Public Sector Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR). Government Undertakings in Defence run R&D labs should work in tandem with the private production are outsourcing to In the post-liberalisation the extent of 20-40 per cent sector while developing of their input requirements, period, Indian private sector major combat systems. In part of which is from SMEs. that way, private sector has shown great resilience According to recent statistics can easily identify major shared by Minister of State components, maintenance for Defence, Rao Inderjit Singh, showed that the and sub-systems needed for the combat systems recent policy change had contributed to increase in upfront. This also serves the private industry to the country’s Defence export to INR 441 crore in the widen its technology base to undertake research in first quarter of the financial year. In that, private sector specialised fields. This will help in aggregation of the export accounts for 63 per cent of total Defence export Defence technology capability of the country thereby against 13 per cent in 2013-14. The private sector avoiding the purchase of items from abroad. export of military stores clearly indicates its capability Mechanism to harness the technological capability to play an important role in Indian Defence production. and making advancement in manufacturing is a key Based on Dhirendra Singh Committee to achieve self-reliance in Defence sector. Both, recommendations, Defence Minister had set up a State-owned enterprises and private sector have a high powered committee under the chairmanship of leading role to play in Defence production. To Dr VK Aatre to recommend guidelines for selecting mitigate the technological gap in private sector, it is Indian private firms for strategic partnership imperative for collaboration at multiple levels under ‘Make in India’ initiative in six areas which between private and State-owned enterprises in include submarines, aircraft and missiles. The defence manufacturing sector.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

Islamic radicalism RELATIVELY QUIESCENT

How It Needs To Be Countered In India

In practical terms what counter-radicalisation methods can work in India? Most analysts and social scientists point to counter narratives against those of the radicals. Beyond the clichéd ones of successful democratic and secular credentials of India, it is time for a more professional outlook towards the problem which may be affecting States in central and southern India more than the northern or eastern States. That is partially due to the larger ratio of presence in the diaspora from these regions as well as greater penetration of internet.

n deep discussion over a brief period of time with the President of the US National Defence University (NDU) in 2006, I found that he knew very little about the 500 million strong Muslim community of the Indian subcontinent. He was surprised when I explained in detail how not a single member of the then 170 million Indian Muslims had been accused of supporting the Al Qaeda or joining its perceived cause. I also explained how Pakistan had become the core center of religious radicalism due to a diabolic plan to employ radical ideology to exploit India’s fault lines, and the failure of the plan. It was clear that the West had cared little to

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

study the phenomenon of religious radicalism as pertaining to Islam. If it had, it was limited more to the models emerging from the Middle East.

Genesis Of Radicalism

In an earlier opportunity at a high profile US strategic studies institution in Hawaii a year before 9/11, I found a similar lack of awareness. The US looked upon Pakistan as the core State for promotion of its interests in South Asia and the region around. That has not changed to this day in spite of Pakistan’s continuous involvement in promotion of Islamic radical philosophy. A revisit to Pakistan’s strategic

plan of retribution against India for the loss it suffered in the 1971 Indo Pak conflict is, therefore, a must if the threat of Islamic radicalism to India’s interests is to be correctly appreciated. In 1977, Zia ul Haq captured power after a brief five year hiatus which saw civilian rule under Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Zia was clear headed about his mission. According to him, Pakistan could not hope to defeat India in a conventional war nor match it economically. The only way to prevent a complete asymmetry with India was by preventing India achieving full integration of its minorities and other smaller ethnic groups and exploiting its fault lines, which were many. Besides other means, the most potent method would be to bring Indian Muslims to disrepute and force them to be with Pakistan in their thinking through the common thread of Islam. However, it would have to be extreme forms of Islam which would achieve this – the form followed by Saudi Arabia and some other countries and commonly referred to as Salafi Islam. It is not the intent to explain this in detail here but suffice to say that Zia’s plans received an impetus by some quirk of fate. The Iranian Revolution, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the arrival of over three million Afghan refugees into Pakistan and finally, the takeover of the Grand Mosque at Mecca by the Ikhwan which was opposed to the Royal House of Saud (later vacated by the French Special Forces) all occurring in 1979, in close proximity in time lines, combined to give Zia every opportunity he had sought. Islamic radicalism was nurtured in the Afghan refugee camps of Peshawar with US and Saudi funds, leading to the creation of the Taliban. Zia died well before his plans could be executed but the Pakistan Army continues his mission with zeal, obsessively believing that Islamism was the one way to keep the low intensity war against India raging and to Pakistan’s advantage. After 2007, Islamism has come to affect Pakistan much more deeply than India but the Deep State of Pakistan continues to believe in its ability to calibrate this to advantage, as far as India is concerned.

Indian Muslims’ Maturity

A measure of credit is due to the Indian Muslim community for steadfastly resisting the Pakistan Army’s devious plans. However, the journey for Indian Muslims after Partition wasn’t an easy one either. The Indian Muslim community lived under the shadow of Partition till a little beyond 1971. It was unsure of itself and the decision to be a part of India’s inclusive culture was not entirely a convincing belief. In my own research, I surmised that the Indian Muslim community had finally taken its place in Indian society only after the fading of the Partition generation which had witnessed inevitable self-doubts and trauma of Partition. There may have been more glitches along the way as there are bound to be in an integrative process of a young nation which chose democracy as its functional philosophy despite deep cleavages in society and many fault lines.

With increasing Islamism all over the world right through the 15 years of this millennium, the Indian Muslims have fully resisted all efforts to disturb their integrative process and the peaceful coexistence within India’s highly successful heterogeneous model. However, the advent of the information revolution and global social media networks are now disturbing that integrative process and posing threats to India’s model heterogeneity.

Daesh Effect

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM, VSM & BAR (Retd)

The writer is a former GOC of the Srinagar based 15 Corps, does extensive research on Islam to arrive at solutions for low intensity conflict generated due to ideological differences. His understanding of conflict between Islam and the rest of the world has led to his extensive advisories from time to time.

Pakistan may have failed to achieve what it set out to do but it produced conditions for the outreach of Daesh propaganda to create a level of excitement among Indian Muslim youth; thus far this has been negligible. Media reports do indicate that a few young persons in India have made efforts to join Daesh in Syria and Iraq. A few are working incognito as recruiters and influencers and it is still unknown as how many are already radicalised and sympathetic towards Daesh or simply favouring the cause of radical ideology. It is clear that the numbers are as yet not so many as to cause dismay and alarm. The numbers are actually unimportant as the manifestation in terms of those who have physically taken the plunge into movement towards the turbulence of the Middle East is still miniscule. It is the ‘seeding of the ideology’ which is dangerous because these trends emerge to become larger ones without warning. There are connectors which are at work and there are enough instruments and tools available for public outreach. From international trends there can be no prediction about which social segment gets affected, as well-to-do and educated Muslims and non-Muslims have also been drawn to the ideology. Much has been written about the attraction of western youth towards Islamist philosophy as espoused by Daesh. There are enough theories to indicate that the attraction is deeply psychological with very little predictive indicators for common threads to join the dots.

Long Gestation

It is important to point out that the work of Daesh’s propaganda machinery is slick and extremely professional. Obviously, it was not set up post its emergence on the international scene. Careful recruitment of very savvy and technically proficient personnel who are also equally driven by radical ideology has been ongoing for some time. There are supporters in different parts of the world who are running the programmes as per local orientation and using emotions which stick and take young people to the proverbial ‘tipping point’ to enable personal

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

Islamic radicalism RELATIVELY QUIESCENT decisions. The US has made it known that it is no longer possible to take down all the propaganda websites and in the battle for countering the slick usage of modern information tools it appears unable to keep pace. Deep data mining has its limitations especially when the quantum and weight of information is so mind boggling. Much has been written about the attraction value of visuals for vulnerable segments in the West, such as second and third generation immigrants who have been unable to realise their aspirations or integrate in their new environment. At the same time, well to do non-Muslims have been targeted too and have been successfully influenced or attracted to the extremist ideology.

Indian Situation

with the clergy who probably hold the key to the future of ideological thinking within the community and relations with other faiths. The clergy is most significant in a community where religious education is considered sacrosanct. The message has to come from it and it is insufficient to simply brand Daesh ideology as un-Islamic. It needs to be condemnatory and this should extend to all forms of radical ideology which promote violence against other faiths or believers in other schools of Islamic thought. The clergy has, indeed, been coming forward but its voice needs to be repetitive, at Friday sermons, community gatherings and in media. There should be no form of media in which this voice is not carried. When problems of this magnitude strike, the efforts towards solutions have to be equally monumental. The time for quiet introspection and simple advisories is over because the issue is now a scourge. The demand for the moderate Muslim street to rise and be counted has gathered momentum and it is heartening to see visible signs of the community making efforts towards this. Yet, more is less and the issue needs transformational leadership and a drive which encompasses sufficient energy.

It is good to be aware of the experience of the West although the issues which stick and become major tools of influence and narratives are different for different regions. The Indian case is something unique for it will take a completely different set of narratives which will draw attention of Muslim youth; the influence over non-Muslims in India is unlikely. While the Government has made it known that suitable counter measures are already in place and succeeding, India needs to be prepared for a surge in efforts by Daeshâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s propaganda machinery. This is because international military efforts in Middle East are likely to start succeeding with the recent UNSC Resolution having found unanimity. Daeshâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s demand for numbers will enhance and South Asia is a major hunting ground. It also remains vulnerable because of the large presence of its diaspora in the Middle East. The effort in India must be viewed from the angle of treating the issue as a national security threat; only then will it receive the priority and level of Freedom From Coersion addressing that it deserves. Unfortunately, there will be In the counter narratives which have to be developed, problems in this regard as talk of this in public domain it is essential to demarcate the boundary between will have political connotations. That the problem in the fundamentals of a faith (call it fundamentalism physical manifestation is miniscule must not dominate if you wish) and extreme radicalism. This should our thought process; its potential must. be explained to young Muslims by stating that any In practical terms what counter-radicalisation Muslim is free to follow Islam the way he wishes, in methods can work in India? Most analysts and social the various schools of thinking. Following a school, scientists point to counter which professes return narratives against those to the tribal faith of the Indian Muslim community had of the radicals. Beyond 7th century, remains finally taken its place in Indian a choice. However, the the clichĂŠd ones of successful democratic moment the follower society only after the fading of and secular credentials of that school wishes the Partition generation of India, it is time for a to force his thinking more professional outlook on the entire Muslim towards the problem which may be affecting States in community we must have serious objections. The central and southern India more than the northern moment he thinks that his is the only school of or eastern States. That is partially due to the larger authorised Islamic thinking we should have serious ratio of presence in the diaspora from these regions objections. Lastly, if he chooses to justify the use as well as greater penetration of internet. of violence to force others to his belief we must all rise as one and put an end to such thinking. Counter-measures The message is clear from the above. Muslims are Some methods of counter-radicalisation (counter-rad) free to follow the fundamentals of their faith as and de-radicalisation (de-rad) which could possibly existing at any time in history, as long as they make dents are being outlined here. It must commence do not force the beliefs on others.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

parent counselling and guidance by psychologists on discerning changes in their wards and how to handle this at the outset.

Family As Nucleus

Muslim families must be immediately advised by elders, community leaders and influential persons that the time for unsupervised religious education of young Muslim children is passé. Unscrupulous elements are on payrolls to influence young minds in seminaries or during home based reading of scriptures. These moments in solitary company of While education parameters and other social indices children are used to impinge ideas detrimental to in the case of Muslims may be low in comparison, healthy mental growth and norms of secular society. there can be no complaints against the quantum I would always recommend that the mindset about of freedom in India. Muslim youth must be made seminaries must be broken and these institutions to realise the value of freedom through frequent to be guided towards the concept of happiness in talks by iconic personalities and even common learning. Far better integration and inculcation of Muslims within ranks of soldiers, policemen, sense of patriotism can be achieved by mainstreaming corporate workers and government servants from them rather than leaving them in isolation. Their different walks of life. Much of this has to be physical inclusion in sports and cultural competitions must be as the presumption that social media is the only made mandatory. National pride must be inculcated tool of recruitment is flawed. by inviting the institutions to participate in Republic Day and Independence Day functions including flag Collaborative Narratives hoisting and march-past. In the development of counter and alternative I cannot also resist bringing in the integrative narratives, there will be a need for a partnership model of the Indian Armed Forces. There are between the Government, intelligence agencies and many examples of syncretic culture which are the clergy. These narratives have to be well thought demonstratively followed. The regimental system of out, focussed and creatively based upon essential the Indian Army is not known to too many people knowledge of Islam and national patriotic values. The outside the Forces. I have often quoted examples role of academics, too, is of how officers from just two crucial. Similarly, strategic regiments, the Grenadiers In counter narratives it think tanks need to join or the Rajputana Rifles, hands to hold frequent integrate into the faith and is essential to demarcate interactions with youth culture of their troops. Visits the boundary between the and produce material for to Sarv Dharm Sthals of the online reading. In a recent fundamentals of a faith and Army by school children will event at a think tank some give a true sensitisation of extreme radicalism members of Islamic clergy India’s syncretic culture. attending the workshop Perhaps, it is time to expressed the idea that many thinkers in Islam have consider whether there is need for a National unfortunately given a misinterpreted focus forcing Perception Management Body which goes beyond people to believe that aspirations of the faith were to the scope of the National Integration Council. The be met through violence. They stated that it was the need is felt for an apex body comprising politicians, duty of intellectuals in society to pacify the young and bureaucrats, strategic analysts, corporate leaders, those agitated, and speak against violence. psychologists, military, police and intelligence The importance of institutions such as Aligarh specialists etc. with the task of setting out ideas on Muslim University and Jamia Millia Islamia countering radicalism, anti-national ideologies and cannot be overstated. The intellectual capital for divisive trends through counter narratives. counter narratives can best be driven by various The countering of online subversion and departments of these institutions. Perhaps many physical counselling through engagement should times even the younger generation may emerge form a part of this body’s task. with far better narratives. The current threats to recruit and influence Indian The drowning of Daesh’s voice must be through youth towards radical ideology have not reached very a rising crescendo of volumes; in fact thousands of serious proportions but the efforts are on and greater voices. It is insufficient to counter this in driblets. focus towards India is likely in the future as the Especially online, the volume of moderate literature conflict in Middle East transforms. The must disallow the emergence of Daesh’s voice. It unpredictability of it is in itself a threat and has to be as slick and attractive. The TED talk continuous monitoring of it is essential. The key to format of 18 minute talks is a suitable format and its final defeat is the continued promotion of India’s must be in different languages. This should include undoubted syncretic heritage and culture.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat THE FIFTH DOMAIN

Hope India is not waiting for a digital Pearl Harbour. Who will declare when the nation is under attack? Who will authorise offensive action? How will the action be graded? When will Cyber Command be in place? These are questions that need answers.

hile PM Modi is driving the Digital India campaign to harness the great potential for quick transparent governance to deliver efficient services and ensure public security, he was quick to add that ‘clouds of a bloodless war are hovering over the world; someone can steal our digital data, clean up our bank accounts or attack the basic amenities; we have to accept the challenge to ensure cyber security’. Any disruption of such well-connected services can play havoc worse than the atomic bomb. Any motivated interference in computer systems to sabotage or steal; deny or destroy is part of cyber warfare. The need to both dominate and secure the information highway has to be on war footing. USA has already categorised ‘Cyber War’ a larger threat than Islamic State. Cyberspace is now ‘the fifth domain of warfare’ and is as critical to military as land, sea, air and space operations. China actively pursues an offensive cyber warfare policy with over 1,50,000 employed in the State-controlled facilities.

at manufacturing stage. As per the Internet security company McAfee, over 130 countries are developing cyber warfare tools. Time and place of attack can be chosen and therefore some also call it ‘cyber-terrorism’. Iran’s nuclear facility at Natanz was reportedly attacked by USA and Israel with cyber-worm Stuxnet that destroyed over 1000 nuclear centrifuges pushing back the programme by years. Rogue State North Korea teaches cyber war in schools and has over 5,000 experts. Russia has made cyber-attacks against Georgia and Ukraine. Many Arab countries routinely attack Israel. In September 2007, Israel carried out an airstrike on Syria and pre-empted it with a cyber-attack to blind Syrian radars. Chinese hackers attacked European Aeronautic Defence & Space Company (EADS) in 2013. In February 2015, the Twitter account of Newsweek, with 2.5 million followers, was hacked by a group calling itself the Cyber Caliphate, an affiliate of Islamic State.

Magnitude Of Threat

China has access to Microsoft source code and is using Chinese Diaspora to boost its offensive and defensive capabilities. In December 2009, China stole millions of Google user passwords and gained access to significant part of the world. China has also stolen US Space shuttle design, C4ISR data, high-performance computer designs, nuclear weapon and cruise missile designs etc. The Obama administration conceded in June 2015 that China had access to the confidential records of 18 million federal employees. Chinese military is increasingly

Cyber war doesn’t require huge armies with attendant logistics and can be launched by a single operator with a simple computer. All networked civil utilities like water, electricity, banking, trade, transportation etc can be ground to stop through a cyber-attack. Military communication and surveillance networks can be infected or blanked off with disastrous results. Organisational or personal hardware and networks can be targeted. The malicious bugs can be inbuilt into the computer system or in microchips

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

World Cyber Warfare Leaders

training in cyber warfare and have built many and Joint Chiefs of Staff virtual laboratories and digital campuses. They use Committee. India is among the simulation to prepare against technically capable top few countries compromised adversaries for the new ‘cyber cold-war’. China by US surveillance. As a result, has plans for ‘winning information wars by the the National Cyber Coordination mid-21st century’. To counter, USA is developing Centre (NCCC) was set up by next generation ‘smart grid’ networks for protection. Indian Government to carry out The US military considers cyber-attack equivalent to real-time assessment of cyber a traditional act of war and all digital infrastructure security threats and provide has been classified a ‘strategic national asset’. actionable reports. Data Strong US public pressure against troop casualties compiled by the Indian Computer Air Marshal Anil Chopra and need to protect homeland at all costs make Emergency Response Team PVSM AVSM VM VSM (Retd) The writer was a pioneer a great case for cyber warfare. USA set up a indicates that more than 1,000 of the Mirage 2000 fleet Tri-Services Cyber Command in May 2010 to government websites storing and commanded a Mirage protect the military and to take offensive action. Its critical and sensitive data Squadron, two operational charter includes detecting and neutralising cyber- concerning national security have air bases and the IAF’s Flight attacks and to defend military computer networks. been hacked by cyber criminals Test Centre ASTE. He was It would attack adversary command-and-control in the last four years. Chinese the Team Leader of an aircraft upgrade project in Russia. systems at military headquarters, air defence have breached the computers Currently, he is a member networks and weapons system computers. USA has of India’s Defence Research of Armed Forces Tribunal acknowledged launching attacks on networks in and Development Organisation at Lucknow and a member other countries to advantage, including Afghanistan. recently. In 2015, the Indian of Executive Council of Nearly 30,000 cyber specialists are being deployed. Prime Minister gave directions Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. The FBI experts have helped NATO establish the to build capabilities against Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre in Estonia. cyber-attacks. While China has In 2015, the US Department of Defence released an interests in India’s defence information, Pakistan’s updated cyber strategy. The three cyber missions aim is to spread hatred via cyber space. Groups include arm and maintain existing capabilities, such as the Army-in-Kashmir, Pakistan Cyber Army, prevention of cyber warfare and strategies and Pakistan Hackers Club have targeted nearly for retaliation and pre-emption. 500 Indian websites. Pakistani hackers are funded Germany has announced enhanced funding by its intelligence, and unlike their counterparts for cyber surveillance and setting up cyber- in India, they are fully protected by government. defence stations. Britain’s MI6 had infiltrated an India needs a dedicated cyber army with a proactive Al Qaeda website and routinely approach. India also needs to exercises simulated massive monitor and attack networks Cyber war can be launched to neutralise Pakistani Internet-based attacks against banks and other financial by a single operator with a nuclear weapons and prevent organisations. The EU has set going to terrorist hands. simple computer up ENISA (European Network There is also a need to and Information Security continuously monitor social Agency). Other countries which very active in cyber media for terrorist sympathisers. warfare are Russia, Israel and North Korea. Iran and Indian Computer Emergency Response Team Saudi Arabia, regional rivals in the Middle East, are (CERT-In) was set up in 2004. In 2011, National routinely attacking each other. WikiLeaks released Critical Information Infrastructure Protection in June 2015 over half a million cables from the Centre (NCIIPC) was created to defend critical utility Saudi Foreign Ministry, including several ‘Top Secret’ networks of energy, transportation, banking, telecom, reports after a hack by a group calling itself the defence and space. National Technical Research Yemeni Cyber Army. After the November 13, 2015 Organisation (NTRO) was also created to protect critical Paris attacks, France has effectively declared war on infrastructure. Nuclear Power Corporation of India has ISIS and Cyber was the first means of attack. its own network defences in place. E-mail accounts of over 12,000 influential decision-makers were Cyber Threat To India reportedly breached in July 2012. The cyber security Pakistan has an active Cyber Army. In 2015, Pakistani was then put under the direct preview of the National hackers defaced the website of Chhattisgarh National Security Adviser (NSA). Isolation and redundancy of Institute of Technology. The Home page was replaced networks to prevent synchronised attacks requires with a slogan of ‘Pakistan Zindabad’. India suspects serious attention. The Armed Forces have their own that Pakistan websites triggered violence in Mumbai networks and have also created their own CERT and provoked the exodus of the northeast community teams which till now follow inherently defensive in Bengaluru. Pakistanis hacked Central Bureau of firewall like approach. India’s national cyber security Investigation website in December 2010. Pakistan is policy of 2013 is still a fledgling document which is also planning an aggressive command structure for defensive in nature. Formally approved cyber cyber and information warfare under the Chairman warfare policy is still ‘work-in-progress’.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat THE FIFTH DOMAIN Indian Tri-Services Cyber Command

NASSCOM report entitled ‘Securing Our Cyber Frontiers’ released in April 2012 recommended establishment of a Cyber Command within the defence forces. Need for the Cyber Command has been acknowledged by the Defence Minister and the NSA. India, currently has cyber security workforce comprising a mere 2,000 experts deployed in various government agencies computer in a given country to ensure that covert miniscule vis-à-vis China. About 5,000 additional hacking isn’t under way? Trillions are transferred experts are being recruited for different departments; daily via undersea cables and any compromise majority will go to Armed Forces and NTRO. The use could halt the world economy. Cross-border of networks for cyber warfare requires the involvement cyber-crimes have blurred physical and national of civilian resources. Uniformed personnel will work borders. Cyberspace technology is emerging as an closely with cyber geeks. The mission would be to ‘instrument of power’. With low barriers to entry, defend military computer networks and launch cyber coupled with the anonymous nature of activities in counter-attacks and to deny the same to the enemy. cyberspace, the list of potential adversaries is broad. The Cyber Command would be formed with putting Furthermore, the globe-spanning range of cyberspace together existing cyberspace resources, creating will challenge legal systems and complicate response synergy and integrating assets of the three Services. to contingencies. Attempts at international legal Like other Tri-Service Commands, they will report frameworks have failed. The Tallinn Manual of 2013 to the Chiefs of Staff Committee. Protection of is academic in nature. The Shanghai Cooperation Indian civil networks would remain the responsibility Organisation in 2011 proposed a document called of NCCC. Cyber Command could be called to support ‘International code of conduct for information security’. NCCC in case of cyber disaster. Such coordination Network defences would require constant upgradation. could be at the level of the National Security In June 2013, Presidents Obama and Putin agreed Adviser. Erecting just digital fences would not be to install a secure cyber hotline providing direct enough; a purely reactive strategy will be late and voice communications between the cyber security immensely resource-intensive. There will be need to coordinators of the two countries. International cyber increase offensive capability for deterrence. India has defence contractors like Raytheon, General Dynamics, the technological resources against Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, Pakistan. India also has Israeli help Cassidian (EADS), Thales, Northrop Erecting just who are masters in the game. But Grumman and General Dynamics China will be a different ballgame. digital fences would are innovating and also scouting Indian Army reportedly conducted a for computer network exploitation not be enough specialists. Indians could fill this war game called the Divine Matrix in March 2009. The exercise simulated space one day. The US dominates a scenario in which China launches a nuclear attack global cyber security market with 56 per cent of the on India somewhere in 2017. China was shown as spending. From the geostrategic perspective, cyber launching a cyber-attack before the launch of offensive operations can cripple whole economies, the actual nuclear strike. change political thought, trigger conflicts, reduce military efficiency and neutralise the capacities of Unfolding Cyber War high-tech nations and use access to their critical The feasibility of Weaker States getting offensive infrastructures to blackmail them. It would be cyber capability against those with greater kinetic unreasonable to expect corporations to successfully /nuclear weapons ability gives them chance to defend against the cyber-attacks of a foreign State counter asymmetry at very low cost and visibility. In with greater access to technology and talent. kinetic warfare, deterrence is based on fear of physical Indian military will have to take this responsibility. damage/death. In the case of cyber warfare, deterrence Winning cyber war would now be a precursor through severe economic-cum-logistic punishment to any war. Military equations in a war could be has still to evolve. Preserving basic functionality is changed without even firing a shot. going to be the real challenge for cyber security. USA suspects that Chinese telecommunication giants, Who Is In Charge? Huawei and ZTE could inbuild serious vulnerabilities India woke up to intelligence and coordination after into electronic equipment that could allow access Kargil War and NSG was formed after Parliament to networks and has decided to black-list these for attack. Hope it has learnt the lessons and is not importing technology. In response, China banned waiting for a digital Pearl Harbour. Who will declare some Microsoft products in April 2014 and later when the nation is under attack? Who will authorise raided many Microsoft offices in China. Careful offensive action? How will the action be graded? procurement can reduce the breaches. Facebook When will Cyber Command be in place? These are has nearly a billion users and there are 250 million questions that need answers. Luckily tech-savvy PM tweets every day. While suspected nuclear facilities Modi is conscious that India has to act lest it gets left can be inspected, how does one examine everyone’s behind in this all important race.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat DANGERS WITHIN

Role Of Intelligence

Keeping It Relevant And Effective Any government that wishes to be served by a smart Intelligence agency must help it to remain relevant and allow it to plan now for the anticipated nature of threats and means used by the adversaries.

he most endearing definition of the role of Intelligence was given by the Chinese strategic thinker, Sun Tzu when he said that “Nothing should be as favourably regarded as Intelligence; nothing should be as generously regarded as Intelligence; nothing should be as confidential as the work of Intelligence”. Unfortunately, reality has been different, especially in modern India where Intelligence has been viewed with a certain amount of suspicion or at best envy. Besides, the role and importance of Intelligence services, especially external, in India has ebbed and flowed according to the personal proclivities of the chief executive. These were not determined by any institutional mechanism that places demands and provides the wherewithal, according to long-term policy enunciations. Intelligence collection and dissemination is a consumer-driven product and is not an end in itself. It is not just what a consumer needs but what a consumer demands that drives the work. Therefore, the bigger the aspirations of a nation or its leadership, the greater the need and demand for quality Intelligence.

Perspicacity Guides Intelligence

Intelligence, thus, is as good as its consumer and is dependent on how precisely it is tasked and

Vikram Sood The writer is former director of Research and Analysis Wing and is currently Adviser, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.

having tasked, how well is the Intelligence that has been produced, then used by the consumer. Here again one must take recourse to what Sun Tzu said, “Unless someone has the wisdom of a sage, he cannot use spies; unless he is benevolent and righteous, he cannot employ spies; unless he is subtle and perspicacious, he cannot perceive the substance in Intelligence reports”. Collection of Intelligence is arduous business, fraught with untold risks especially when collected from hostile or adversarial territory or as is more and more common, Intelligence about terror and terrorists. The war of Intelligence is one without end, where there are no winners. The founder of R&AW, RN Kao referred to his profession as being the sword arm of the government against external enemies, while internal intelligence was the shield against external attacks. Espionage, is indeed, as old as history. Kautilya’s Arthashastra describes how espionage and covert operations should run espionage service in the time of his Emperor, Chandragupta. ‘A king shall have his agents in the courts of the enemy, the ally, the Middle and the Neutral kings to spy on the kings as well as their eighteen types of high officials’. Kautilya’s magnum opus predates Machiavelli’s ‘The Prince’ and Adam Smith’s ‘The Wealth of

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat DANGERS WITHIN war without an Intelligence service. When the French went to war with Germany in 1870, it had no secret service because it had no money for this sort of activity. Two days after the war started, the French allocated 1 million francs to start an espionage service but Colonel Rollin, the man asked to start this remarked, ‘It was too late. Such a service cannot be improvised. It must be built up in the leisure of time’. The Americans led the Allies to victory in World War II without their own espionage service most of the time and the CIA was born only in 1947 to fight and win the Cold War. Most of the Intelligence had come from the British with their empire cast globally. Ultimately, with all its credited reach and ability, it failed to predict the downfall of the Soviet Union.

Technology Will Boost Terror

Over time, the nature of threats has changed and these are likely to undergo further changes. The Internet and cellphone have changed the 21st century like nothing else has in the decades that preceded this. Technology is now cheap and available to all. It will not be long before terrorists are able to make their own drones to target whoever they wish to. Modern technology allows them to do so. And the frontier has not been reached yet. Any government that wishes to be served by a smart Intelligence agency must help it to remain relevant and allow it to plan now for the anticipated nature of threats and means used by the adversary. The present digital age and its complexities are probably a stepping stone for bigger unknown changes in the future. Intelligence, to be relevant, has to be accurate and report in advance, otherwise what it gives is for history books. It is also not how much Intelligence an agency can procure. The eternal worry is how much is not known. In the present times, there is already a tremendous data overload which has to be transformed into information, then knowledge and ultimately usable Intelligence in real time. This is going to become an increasingly difficult task for Intelligence organisations in the future.

Recruitment Is The Key

Given the kind of threats that loom large, it is necessary for the government to have a close look at the recruitment patterns, whether we are ready with our present manpower patterns to handle the Nations’ outdoing both in threats in the future. If not, cynical realism. Emperor what needs to be done because Intelligence, to be relevant, Intelligence reforms must be Akbar had his 4,000 spies some of whom reported to his done in the fullness of time and has to be accurate and ‘National Security Council’ not when the crisis is upon us. report in advance every evening. Moses ran his Recruitment patterns would espionage service; Delilah, have to change. The usual civil the original honey trap, was a spy for the Philistines service route will not do. It is far too bureaucratic, but later Mata Hari was a failure. The Profumo that just does not encourage risk taking or calculated Scandal and later, the Anna Chapman case gambles, gets far too bound down with its own were exhibitions of classical espionage. internal hierarchies, made worse by the bureaucracy During the reign of Queen Elizabeth I, Sir Francis that seeks to put its own pecking order above the rest. Walsingham ran a security service free of cost to Her The civil service, just cannot throw up the kind of Majesty. Yet later in history, major powers went to talent required by modern Intelligence services which

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

need to seek talent in the open market as is being practiced in other democracies. On the other hand, Intelligence organisations function with a mystique, an elitist nature that every young person wants to join. There has to be an exclusivity, which unfortunately, we have taken away and made Intelligence another bureaucracy manned not by talented men all the time but by those who have had the fortune of passing a civil service examination many years ago. Nowadays, recruits join the civil service up to the age of 30, many are married and have children. They are just not young enough to be moulded into Intelligence officers; their ideas are set and many become risk averse, in a profession where flexibility, improvisation and the ability to take calculated risks are considered essential requirements.

Many Dichotomies

As Intelligence tasks grow with increasing threats there will also be a conflict between free speech and secrecy, remembering that free speech and right to privacy are two different things. Neither is fully possible unless there is law and order. And this cannot be achieved unless there is security. This probably sounds blasphemous to those who place free speech above everything else. But free speech is also limited by individual sense of propriety and that of the society. Since the modes of communication are electronic, Intelligence surveillance has to be electronic as well. Intelligence agencies are secret, thus cannot be transparent. Intelligence organisations are not human rights organisations. Nor are they conventional bureaucracies. Attempts to tie down these organisations in the name of accountability has to be carefully calibrated lest we curb initiative, tie them down in endless bureaucracies, or lead to exposure of operations in the name of accountability.

our success is the secret of our successâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; (CIA annals). Intelligence success depends on the clarity of purpose set out by the political leadership, the dynamism of the organisational leadership, in-house talent and morale and the milieu in which it works. As threats change with time, an Intelligence organisation must have the flexibility to be able to surge and redeploy when a new threat emerges. Thoughtful supervision and mindless control are two different issues. In India, reform has mostly meant more organisations, more posts and more control. True reform would keep past experiences, present conditions and evolving threats to make a judgment on the kind of Intelligence agency required say 15-20 years from now. It must not be made to fight the last war. This would obviously mean a thorough evaluation of the abilities of the agencies that exist and what needs to be done so that the Intelligence agency of the day 20 years from now is in a position to deliver. Otherwise they are doomed to fail.

Volatile World Ahead

Today, the world is witnessing a global upheaval and our neighbourhood is particularly volatile. India may be the third largest economy today which only means a greater effort to preserve this position and at times to be proactive on the international stage. The situation is complicated because of an ongoing unresolved crisis in Afghanistan, a truculent Pakistan and an ambitious and aggressive China especially active in the region. West Asia and parts of Africa are going through a deep Islamic upheaval that extends beyond the region. We will remain hemmed in to our north-west and northeast by two nuclear powers where Pakistan will continue to use innovative terrorism as a force equaliser against India while China will continue to strengthen the military, nuclear and economic capabilities of Pakistan Dangers Within to face India. As the US seemingly retreats with its An Intelligence service can be dangerous to its massive military and technology unable to produce adversaries if it continues to be successful but the results it has been seeking, Russia resurges and equally it can be dangerous to its own government cannot be written off; and China has begun to assert if it continues to fail. An itself globally with its dreams Intelligence organisation is a grandeur. Simultaneously, Low reliability means that of danger to itself when it begins the geopolitical centre to feel indispensable to its has begun to shift to Asia even correct Intelligence government and becomes and India needs to be becomes suspect secure as it begins its arrogant and begins to set its own agenda or priorities. journey in becoming a major Continued failure leads to a crisis of confidence, as low player. Traditional threats are now mixed with reliability means that even correct Intelligence becomes new threats (like terrorism being the prime one suspect. Politicisation of Intelligence, cherry picking, but tactics are changing) which have a scope and bypassing accurate or seeking bent intelligence inputs speed of change never seen before. is a danger all countries have faced, usually with India will have to assert itself internationally if it adverse consequences. In this case, Intelligence is a wishes to achieve what it has set out to do. This would danger to its own government and to itself. require a combination of traditional diplomacy, The political leaders are required to set the goal, sharpened Intelligence, effective military activity not the means. It is best for them not to know accompanied by a massive national socio-economic everything so that they have total and genuine effort. All these instrumentalities would need constant deniability â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the principle being that â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;the secret of updating for achieving desired results.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat MOBILISING SOCIETY

A Clear And Present Danger to India No IB, no police, no other agency, can perform its tasks without diligent cooperation from society. For society knows more than anyone else. At every level society must be made to feel a part of the solution.

mongst the many converted volunteers to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is supposedly a South Korean early-twenties educated male. That is about the average global age for those who have been attracted by the nihilism and atrocities committed by ISIS. What makes this case even more critical is that a South Korean male has made his way to the imagined and promised land. South Korea is hardly a Muslim country in any sense of the label and has never been in the frontline of activities in the Arab or larger Islamic world. The fact that a young South Korean could become enamoured by the call of the ISIS is directly reflective of the danger that this group poses to the region and the affected world at large.

cells. And it struck at the most unlikely places or times. Tucked away in the luxury of his Abbottabad mansion Osama bin Laden directed attacks and plans around the world. Until destiny caught up with him on a steamy night in 2011. Since then Al Qaeda has hardly posed the threat that it once did. Granted some disparate groups in North Africa or Yemen continue to claim allegiance to Al Qaeda and to which they dedicate their actions, but the threat is a lot less than what it once was. There is a deeper reason for that lesser threat and for which a comparison with ISIS is important. Al Qaeda, for one, didn’t declare the formation of a Caliphate and from where the armies of Islam would sail forth. Al Qaeda, in fact, existed in a space where the writ of the State had ceased to run. It Magnitude Of Threat survived in the initial years only because The scale of this threat needs to be understood in toto Afghanistan had become ungovernable and, aligned in order to fully fathom the fight India is up against. with the Taliban, they made it the launchpad for The Daesh, to use its Arabic acronym, is the principal global jihad. Al Qaeda was never interested in global threat India is faced with. Even as Naxalism controlling territory, rather had the ability to launch presents the gravest internal its cells in every country it security danger, the spectre wanted to attack. The ISIS is very different in this respect, of an ISIS making further ISIS is making deep inroads poses a clear and for it began with controlling inroads into the minds of territory, demonstrating a present danger to India. The threat that it represents isn’t the young Indian Muslims State formation which never fully apparent from the almost occurred to Al Qaeda. daily arrests or deportations While one was the direct that India is confronted with. The threat is outcome of an absence of State, the other was the deeper and in order to fully understand it, a promoter of a new State and a Caliphate at that. comparative analysis is vital as well as imperative. Al Qaeda benefited from the vacuum created by The first truly global terrorist organisation espousing the destruction of the Afghan State, or a Sudan in Islamic causes was the Al Qaeda. Cells existed as far crisis before that. But the ISIS deliberately and east as the Philippines to Morocco in the west. That as a matter of design, replaced the disintegrating Al Qaeda struck the soul of United States of America Syrian and Iraqi with its own version of governance, on September 11, 2001 isn’t because local citizens the Caliphate. This control of territory is a were members, but rather immigrants were on a significant difference between the two global terrorist mission of death and mayhem. But from Morocco to organisations only because it enables them to operate Philippines, locals made and managed active Al Qaeda at differing levels of capability.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

Morbid Inspiration

While the Al Qaeda was entirely dependent on the skills and acumen of the various cells it had created as part of its franchise, the ISIS sends its cadres to death and mayhem having trained and motivated them in the area that it calls the Caliphate. The ‘lone wolf’ attacks carried out in the name of the ISIS are essentially inspired actions rather than directed by the Daesh. To look at it another way, such is the power and attraction of the ISIS that the murderously motivated, including a Pakistani mother in California, can be moved enough to sign allegiance to ISIS in the moments before death. This is the level of motivation that threatens India from the spectre of ISIS. Because those drawn to the Caliphate are not some socially isolated criminals but rather regular educated citizens with reasonable levels of income. While the Al Qaeda attracted volunteers with its sermons on theology and reams of it, the ISIS attracts through technology, with a theological adjunct. It is the higher levels of technological skills of ISIS volunteers that is another major difference between the two terrorist organisations with global goals. Theology worked for one and technology is working for the other. And it is through technological means that the ISIS is making deep inroads into the minds of the young Indian Muslims. Social media and other such digital tools make for a seamless transition from ordinary guy to a global jihadi in a matter of keys pressed. The ISIS volunteer is not a lumpen street-side socially-expendable creature, but a technologically aware and well-read citizen. It is significant that most of the Indians arrested have come from a technical educational background. Most of them have also been gainfully employed, much like the State petroleum sector engineer from Karnataka arrested in Jaipur. Many others have come from the private sector, but also with technical degrees.

Integrated Counter-measures

This is, thus, the scale of challenge faced by India in its fight against the Daesh, ISIS. So, it is a fight in which all stakeholders have an equally important

role to play. This includes national domestic ones as well as international partners. This is, after all, a fight which none can win alone. Not even the most militarily powerful can wage this war without cooperation from all like-minded players. So, it is essential that firstly, all stakeholders are thinking Manvendra Singh and functioning on the same The writer is Editor-in-chief wavelength, the same grid in of Defence and Security Alert military parlance. (DSA) magazine. He is a For starters the police in well-known defence journalist various States have to be more and columnist. He was member invigorated and energised of Indian Parliament till 2009 from one of the largest to tackle this threat. Long constituencies in Rajasthan. accustomed to handling ‘law and order’ level challenges, it is now incumbent on all State police headquarters to pass the message down the line that global terrorism is in the backyard. And it has to be tackled expertly and efficiently, without fear mongering. While the threat cannot be blown out of proportion and local scores settled, the problem cannot also be brushed under the carpet. The threat is live and real. Greater cooperation between the various States, with real time Intelligence sharing a norm rather than an exception, must be instituted. While there have been some examples of recent cooperation and action between various States, this has to be an institutional framework rather than a personality driven venture. This framework of cooperation has to be institutionalised, now, so that it bears fruits in the long run as it becomes more efficient. As, it is institutionalisation which has a long gestation period in this country. This institutionalised framework requires a databank of operatives, actions, incidents and counter-operations. This data bank must be a click away for every policeman who is on the global terror watch grid in India. Just as the terrorist volunteer is tech savvy, so are a large number of policemen who have been recruited in the last few

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat MOBILISING SOCIETY

years. Instead of letting them waste their good years whilst updating profiles with traffic challans, it is far better to use their knowhow in this direction. They would, after all, know better than most the digital trail travelled by the ISIS warrior.

Digital Battlefield

equally vital in coordinating with international agencies when it comes to sharing and acting on information. Each of them brings domain specialisation, which can play a pivotal role at critical times. Such stakeholders must be made to feel they are part of the solution, rather than being left out of the loop. For in foreign interactions these stakeholders bring their own specialised perspectives, which can only benefit the country.

That digital trail will lead to the use of higher levels of technological expertise than that is currently available with most police forces in the States. Which is where the Central agencies come into the Mobilising Society play. Of all the stakeholders, the most important in However, the stakeholder with the greatest of the counter-terror game is the Intelligence Bureau. importance and the most vital role to play is none other With a long history of snooping, albeit far too much than Indian society. After all it is society that is most of the political variety, the IB is the only agency in vulnerable to terrorist action. So, it must be society the Government of India that must be made to feel the scale which has the work culture of its responsibility in tackling this to match the requirements threat. No IB, no police, no other Indian society must be of todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s threats. There agency, can perform its tasks mobilised to participate without diligent cooperation from have been many new organisations in the recent society. For society knows more in tackling this threat past, none has been able than anyone else. Since they know to match the IB in terms most, they must also be made to of output. This is because a number of them are feel more responsible than they currently are. This doubling duties with others and have become just requires social and political leadership, as well as another investigative layer upon another. An IB run statesmanship, from the level of a village to the capital multi-agency Centre that brings together State police of India. At every level society must be made to feel a forces and other stakeholders, is just sufficient to part of the solution and not excluded as most do. The handle this danger. Adding more organisations, problem is global, but solutions start at the local level, constantly creating new ones, is not the answer for which societal mobilisation is the only to an already complex problem. means. To counter the Caliphate, therefore, let everyone feel the need to create their utopia The Network in their own lands rather than an imagined The Government of India must institute a core fairyland in Iraq and Syria. If not tomorrow, then team from the Ministry of External Affairs, the certainly by the day after that, fairyland will crumble three Armed Forces Headquarters, Department of under its own contradictions and sicknesses. So Revenue Intelligence, Space, Telecommunications instead of waiting, Indian society must be mobilised and such other fields, which could all contribute to to participate in tackling this threat, locally tackling this terror threat. For these experts are rather than waiting for global solution.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat TOO CLOSE TO IGNORE

Countering The I

Islamic State’s Sri Lankan outreach is well documented. In recent months, there has been growing evidence of actual and attempted outreach by the Islamic State into Sri Lanka, presently struggling to recover from a three-decade long conflict between its Sinhalese and Tamil ethnic groups.

t was jokingly said that whereas all countries have armies, it is Pakistani Army which has got a country. With reference to Nepal, it was said that ‘all terrorists aspire to rule a nation’ whereas now the ruling party is to nationalise the terrorists in Nepal! The Maoists were not ever comfortable in changing role they were to play from terrorists to ruling outfit; something similarly dramatic has happened in Syria and Iraq! The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) declared the areas it occupies in Iraq and Syria as a new Islamic State, removing Iraq and the Levant from its name. The ISIS declared its territories a new Islamic State with ‘restoration of caliphate’ in Middle East. It is now known as Islamic State of Khorasan. The militants named Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as Caliph in a move representing ‘new era of international jihad’. The announcement will see ISIS now simply refer to itself as ‘The Islamic State’. In recent fast paced advances, IS has captured large areas of western and northern Iraq and for two years has held parts of Syria, imposing a harsh interpretation of Islamic law and in many cases, killing large numbers of opposition Shia Muslims.

preface any attempt further by saying that, ‘It’s Not The ‘Occupation’– It’s Islam’, while forcefully exposing certain aspects of Islam, not seen generally. All need to understand the malaise of violence that is clearly embedded in Islam as a religion. But all the empty words about the ‘Occupation’ and the ‘Cycle of Violence’, the invocation of a peaceful solution that is always about to arrive, but never does and the maps that cede more territory to terrorists are addressing a problem that doesn’t exist. It’s not about physical territory. It’s about spiritual territory. It’s not about nationalism. It’s about Islamism. This point is the cornerstone of activities of ‘Hamas’, the terror group that is not a Palestinian nationalist organisation, though it occasionally plays the part. Its charter begins with Allah and ends with Allah. Article Five of its charter states that the group extends to ‘wherever on earth there are Muslims, who adopt Islam as their way of life’. Its goal is to create an Islamic State. Everything else is secondary.

Effect On India

According to a saying attributed to Prophet Muhammad, the ‘End of Time’ battles would The Netanyahu Formula start after victory in the East, which then meant The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, Khurasan. Geographically, Khurasan included has voiced support for Kurdish statehood, taking part of modern Iran, Central Asia, Afghanistan and a position that appears to clash with the US parts of Pakistan. To these, ISIS has included not preference to keep sectarian only Iraq, parts of Syria but also war-torn Iraq united. Netanyahu Gujarat in India. Footprints of IS are seen has called for the establishment India faced with rising Muslim and footsteps are heard in of an independent Kurdistan population projected to gain as part of a broader alliance majority status in 2050, is our neighbourhood with moderate forces across the declared battleground for region, adding that Israel would Muslim jihadis claiming the have to maintain a long-term military presence ‘Gazba-e-Hind’ – the last Muslim crusade before in the West Bank even after any future peace world dominance will be fought in India. India is agreement with the Palestinians. This posturing will also the largest country with highest population of lead to more deaths and destruction. Kafirs (non-believers) who need to be defeated to bring We have much more mayhem and madness to ‘Khurasan’ to reality. The term ‘Khurasan’ refers to a witness before order is restored in the region!

Islamic Concept Of Nationhood

The attempt is to highlight and analyse the fast expansion of IS and the real explanation lies at the heart of Islam, which combined spiritual and temporal power in one hand. One can only

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

Islamic State region that encompasses large areas of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Iran. Jihadists consider the Khurasan to be the area where they will inflict the first defeat against their enemies in the Muslim version of Armageddon. The final battle is to take place in the Levant – Israel, Syria and Lebanon. Footprints of IS are seen and footsteps are heard in our neighbourhood. Entire country’s security forces and agencies involved in maintaining law and order were disturbed last year when few youth from Maharashtra were reported to have been in Syria and involved in IS activities. It was a matter of big concern last year when few Indian young men joined IS in faraway shores. Now, what is more worrisome is about attempted entry of IS.

Bangladesh Battleground

its Sinhalese and Tamil ethnic groups. One of the most significant developments was the news of two Sri Lankan nationals Capt SB Tyagi fighting with the Islamic State in The writer holds Master’s Syria and Iraq. One such report, degrees in Philosophy, in July 2015 indicated that a Sociology, Defence Studies Sri Lankan national Mohamed and Political Science beside Muhsin Sharfaz Nilam (aka ‘Abu BSc and LLB. He also Shurayh al-Silani’), was killed holds master’s degree in Business Administration while fighting in Raqqa, Syria. and postgraduate diplomas Many fast shifting situations in in Business Administration, Sri Lanka provide an opportunity Personnel Management and for Islamic State, which has been Industrial Relations and Safety attempting to spread its influence and Security Management. He had short but outstanding beyond its base in Iraq and Syria. In Myanmar, experts have tenure in Indian Army where he was awarded Commendations warned that Islamic State may by Chief of The Army Staff now be recruiting fighters and twice for devotion to duty families from the persecuted and exemplary performance. Both as ‘thought leader’ and community of Rohingya Muslims fleeing Myanmar, as outstanding professional, he is well recognised world over for the terror group looks to expand his achievements. He is into wider Asia. Myanmar has Co-founder and Chief Councilor tightened security in its border of International Council For areas following reports that Security & Safety Management. several members of the Islamic State have travelled through neighbouring Thailand.

Bangladesh has seen footprints of IS and even when its government disagrees, it is clear to the world that not only its elements are present in Bangladeshi soil, they have the capabilities to strike too. The Islamic State group now claims to have appointed a leader in Bangladesh as its fighters continue to threaten attacks across the globe. The claim comes in the latest release of Dabiq, an online magazine published by the militant group’s propaganda wing. Militants also claimed responsibility for downing a Russian airliner over Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula on October 31. Both attacks, for which ISIS claimed responsibility, were seen to signal that the group based in Syria and Iraq is Solutions To IS Menace planning attacks around the globe even as it has lost There are two ways of looking at the worldwide plague territory in the Middle East in recent months. of Muslim terrorism. One is to treat every Islamic Pakistan is breeding ground of generic Muslim conflict with Christians, Jews, Buddhists, Hindus and terrorists and all the a dozen other religions as being indications are that IS is due to some local political India is faced with rising very much active in Pak grievance of recent vintage. Muslim population projected to The other is to understand with strategic partnership of local jihadi groups. In them as local expressions of gain majority status in 2050 September 2014, Faridullah a historical religious war and Khan, a DW correspondent the continuation of the wave of in the Pakistani city of Peshawar, confirmed conquests that made Islam into a worldwide religion. the IS was looking to gain influence in the There is no political solution to a supremacist nuclear-armed Islamic country. The IS has made an conflict. Solutions begin with truth. The truth is appeal to the local population to support its ‘struggle that Islamic violence is not recent or exceptional. for the establishment of an Islamic caliphate’. A former The murder of Jews by Muslims, whether in Israel Pakistani Taliban spokesman Shahidullah Shahid or Belgium, is not any different than the Muslim can be viewed announcing pledges of allegiance to butchery of Christians. Hindus, Buddhists and even IS on behalf of leaders of various extremist groups in minority Muslim splinter faiths. These conflicts Afghanistan and Pakistan. cannot be resolved through appeasement. They can only be addressed through resistance. The Sri Lanka Situation There can be no peace until Muslims understand Islamic State’s Sri Lankan outreach is well that the Mohammedan conquests were a genocidal documented. In recent months, there has been growing atrocity that destroyed entire cultures and people. evidence of actual and attempted outreach by the Islamic Only then can they honestly condemn IS for trying State into Sri Lanka, presently struggling to to repeat those atrocities. And only then will they be recover from a three-decade long conflict between able to live in peace with the rest of the world.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat TOO CLOSE TO IGNORE

Suggested Gameplan Following needs serious consideration and quick implementation: • Presence of positive forces needed in social media. Need to use social media which the ISIS has been very fruitfully doing. • Arab world will have to be firmly told that violence cannot be supported by lies and that to curb the ISIS was beyond our capability. • Ideology of IS needs to be challenged and it is time for revolution in Islam. • Muslims must remove bad interpretation of Islam and interpretation of Jihad in Islam must change. For this remove Islam from time warp. • It would be good to influence the Urdu Press against the ISIS. • Need to encourage moderate Muslims, who are living in a state of denial. • Educating the Muslims – reforming the madrassa education is long overdue. • To try de-radicalisation programme on the Austrian model. • To strengthen the security architecture, followed up by adequate legal framework. Also, revamping of security architecture is needed to face IS threats. • Modernisation and strengthening police force. • The de-radicalisation programme will have to be very carefully chalked out. Otherwise, it may boomerang. That is, counter-de -radicalisation will also have to be planned. • Need to check/control free flow of finance to the ISIS jihadis. • There was now a great need for getting educated Muslim ladies in this movement to counter the ISIS. That would be a long-term affair. • For tackling the problem, it would be a good strategy to work in small areas first and then expand. The world cannot do anything about this and more especially by demonising Islam – as the West sometimes tends to do. This is an issue internal

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

to Islam and will be addressed only when enough Muslims begin to see the dangers to themselves and their faith from this and the current one, appears striking. The current report states, ‘It is the conquerors who must come to terms with the horrors that they have inflicted through a campaign of colonialism and ethnic cleansing and seek the forgiveness of their victims’.

Advocacy Of Resistance

One section of experts on the subject advocates that these conflicts cannot be resolved through appeasement and can be addressed only through resistance. Therefore, we are faced with what action, if at all, lies with us. We do not see, notwithstanding a very limited few among them exposing the faultiness of Islam, realistic possibility of any significant percentage among those enlightened sections in that community, prevailing upon their brethren to think out of the boundary laid down by their Prophet. The big powers, which had formally called off the ‘war on terror’ and started addressing the Islamic insurgents as only extremists, have not yet appeared in the scene effectively – specially USA – may be because of the lessons learnt in Afghanistan or Iraq. Some are also busy in managing their home turf, having an ostrich-eye view all these years. But, the situation unfolding here now, with The Islamic State having called upon all Muslims to join them, is too close to us in India, with Gujarat being specifically included in their scheme, to ignore its full significance and ramifications. We do hope security strategists, both in the government and outside, are breaking their heads over this. Perhaps, there is need for another prophet to emerge! Or, will the ‘true believers’ continue to prove their nuisance for a longer period of time? Whatever be their ability, they cannot ultimately prevail. We Believe In That! The seriousness of the situation has to be taken to the members of the public, not only in the cities but to the rural areas as well. Sad to say but it is true more patriots are found in villages than among educated elites and so-called intellectuals. In any case and on the whole, public opinion has to be built up to remain on the look-out for already identified /banned or not, outfits, spies and fifth columnists in all walks of life as also the ‘sleeper cells’ suddenly becoming active. Coming times, friends, will be trying. We should not be found wanting in our response. We have been warned!

neighbourhood watch PREPOSTEROUS

Demilitarisation Of Siachen

A Seditious Proposal

In the case of Siachen, Pakistan has no presence on the glacier – not even a toehold. The entire main glacier (76 km by 2-8 km) and the subsidiary glaciers are in India’s control. Hence, if Pakistan is not present on the glacier, how can the question of its withdrawal arise?

iachen is in the news again. Loss of ten precious Indian lives in the most unfortunate tragedy of 3rd February has reignited debate about the rationale of our military presence on the glacier. Pakistan High Commissioner was quick to recall the proposal of ‘mutual withdrawal of troops from Siachen made by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at the UN General Assembly last year’. ‘Time has come for urgent resolution of Siachen issue by mutually withdrawing troops from there to ensure more lives are not lost due to harsh conditions on the glacier’, Pakistan added ingeniously. Note the words ‘mutually withdrawing troops from there’.

Self-goal

True to their seditious agenda, a number of self-proclaimed strategic analysts have started toeing the Pakistani line and advocating ‘demilitarisation’ of the glacier. It is being suggested that such a move will eliminate a major cantankerous issue between India and Pakistan; and act as a catalyst to promote friendly relations. To be honest, one has not heard of a more treacherous and outlandish logic. Demilitarisation of an area implies withdrawal of the opposing military forces from the designated area with an agreement that neither side would

Maj Gen Dr Mrinal Suman AVSM, VSM (Retd)

The writer is India’s foremost expert in myriad aspects of defence procurement procedures and offsets. He heads Defence Technical Assessment and Advisory Services Group of the Confederation of Indian Industry. A prolific writer, his articles are regularly translated in many languages and his views command immense respect in India and abroad.

undertake any military activity till the resolution of the conflicting territorial claims. Thus, demilitarisation necessarily entails withdrawal by both the sides from the disputed area. The area becomes a de facto frontier between the two nations. As is apparent, the concept of demilitarisation entails two major essentials. One, it presupposes that both sides have their military presence in the said area/zone. Two and more frighteningly, it implies that both sides agree to settle their mutual claims at a later date through non-military means. In other words, it declares the area to be a disputed territory. In the case of Siachen, Pakistan has no presence on the glacier – not even a toehold. The entire main glacier (76 km by 2-8 km) and the subsidiary glaciers are in India’s control. As a matter of fact, Pakistan cannot even have a peek at them as all the three main passes (Sia La, Bilafond La and Gyang La) are under India’s occupation. Pakistani positions are well west of the Saltoro Ridge. Hence, if Pakistan is not present on the glacier, how can the question of its withdrawal arise? If that be so, demilitarisation of Siachen would mean unilateral withdrawal by India and accepting it to be a disputed zone. It will amount to forfeiting the territory which is rightfully under India’s absolute military control.

Fifth Column Machinations

Pakistan is adept at achieving through negotiations what it loses in war. Indian soldiers shed blood to gain military ascendency, only to see their hard fought gains being lost through the misplaced zeal of some self-proclaimed advocates of peace. Their current suggestion of demilitarisation of Siachen is an extension of the same subterfuge. How deceitful can a proposition be? Undoubtedly, it is a brainchild of the fifth columnists, at the behest of their Pakistani mentors. For public posturing, they masquerade as intellectuals with liberal views. In fact, they are a bunch of anti-national elements, coming together with the sole objective of undermining the country from within in favour of India’s enemies. Their activities are both overt and covert. In addition,

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

neighbourhood watch PREPOSTEROUS they resort to the clandestine tactics of influencing public opinion through disinformation campaigns. Being Pak sympathisers, they try to present Pakistan as a reasonable and peace-loving country. By implication, they portray their own government to be irrational, obstinate and inflexible.

The Perverted Logic

‘Demilitarisation of Siachen will assure Pakistan of Indian sincerity in resolving contentious issues; help bring about a reduction in Pakistan’s hostility towards India and both the countries can live peacefully thereafter’ – is the commonly touted perverted argument of the Indian advocates of the withdrawal. The above proposition is highly perfidious and subversive in intent. It is based on a highly farcical contention – vacation of Siachen by India will convince Pakistan of India’s good intentions. A reassured Pakistan will shed its enmity and prove to be a trustworthy neighbour. A closer look at the logic is certainly warranted. As regards convincing Pakistan of its sincerity to develop a rancour-free relationship, India has tried various measures over the last six decades. All were doomed to fail for the simple reason that they were based more on hope than on hard ground realities of Pakistan’s deeply ingrained hatred for India. Under the Tashkent Agreement, India agreed to return the strategic Haji Pir Pass to Pakistan, in exchange for an undertaking by Pakistan to abjure the use of force to settle mutual disputes and adherence to the principles of non-interference. However, Pakistan continued its proxy war through its notorious secret agencies. Sanctuaries and safe passage were provided to underground elements of North-Eastern India.

Indian Conciliatory Moves

Pakistan, it has never coveted neighbour’s territory. Disappointingly, Pakistan remains incorrigible as a devious and cunning neighbour. Many feel that India’s over-indulgence and conciliatory gestures have emboldened Pakistan into considering India to be a soft State. It has increased its intransigence and hardened its anti-India attitude.

Naive Expectation

Will Pakistan ever shed its hostility towards India? Only the naive believe that. Pakistan was created on the ideology that the ‘pure’ cannot coexist with the infidel. Pakistan’s shedding of hostility towards India and adoption of a friendly stance would amount to the negation of the two-nation theory, the raison d’etre for its very existence. A nation born out of hatred needs hatred to feed itself on for continued sustenance and to justify its existence. Anti-India stance fulfills this need aptly and cannot be shed. Pakistan’s core values are based on the warped political principles of ‘hate and hurt India’ at all costs, even if its own existence gets jeopardised in the process. Expecting a change of heart is nothing but self-delusion. Issues like Kashmir and Siachen are merely a manifestation of Pakistan’s infinite hostility towards India. Were India to hand over Kashmir to it on a platter and withdraw from Siachen, Pakistan will invent newer issues to keep the pot boiling. When some ill-informed enthusiasts talk about Track-II diplomacy and initiatives like Aman Ki Asha, they forget the fact that adoption of anti-Indian policy is Pakistan’s compulsion. Shedding of antagonism towards India would amount to questioning the very logic of its creation. Affable statements made by a few retired cricketers and singers are of no import. Their masquerading as ambassadors of friendship is of little consequence – they visit India only to make money and have to be politically correct.

Without learning from the past experience, India agreed to release 96,000 Pakistani Prisoners of War (PoWs) after 1971 war under the Simla Agreement. In exchange, India accepted a solemn verbal Entrenched Perfidy promise by Bhutto that Pakistan would accept Line Over a period of time, to hate and cheat India has of Control as the de facto border. India once again become Pakistan’s national obsession. Due to decades of indoctrination and brainwashing, all let Pakistan hoodwink it. Bhutto never intended Pakistanis suffer from an to abide by his word. To extremely brutal and vicious India should never forget avenge its defeat, Pakistan anti-Indian streak. They that deceit, betrayal, redoubled its efforts to are convinced that India is create turmoil in India. their arch enemy. For that duplicity and perfidy are reason, while dealing with Worse, true to its nature, synonymous with Pakistan Pakistan dishonestly kept India, a strange sadistic back 54 Indian PoWs out of instinct gets aroused 617 PoWs held by it. that takes control of their While the Indian leadership was trying to break thinking and behaviour. Even a casual visitor to ice through ‘bus diplomacy’ in 1998-99, Pakistani Pak websites and blogs gets shocked to see venality military was busy planning the notorious Kargil of comments against India. There is hardly a sane incursion. Modi’s out-of-the-box gesture of birthday voice that advocates need to promote amity. stop-over at Lahore was followed by a fierce terrorist Quite rightly, the whole world considers Pakistan strike at the Pathankot airfield. to be a rogue State. As it is impervious to any Thus, India has done enough to demonstrate pangs of conscience, deceit has become the keystone its desire to be friends with Pakistan. Unlike of its State policy. Independent Pakistan started its

March 2016 Defence AND security alert

track record with treachery. Despite having signed of re-conquering India, the level of percolation of a ‘stand-still agreement’ with the State of Jammu anti-India venom can well be gauged. and Kashmir, Pakistan unleashed tribal marauders Rogue countries like Pakistan do not believe on the hapless Kashmir Valley with the active in international conventions and shamelessly participation of Pak flout them. Under world Army. And, the policy it may be Pakistan is adept at achieving pressure of duplicitous conduct forced to wear a mask continues to date. through negotiations what it of reasonableness and India has been friendship, but the loses in war repeatedly duped and irrefutable fact is that cheated by Pakistan. India will always remain What has Pakistan done in the recent Pakistan’s eternal enemy. It will be foolish to expect past to earn another chance to be trusted? One an unscrupulous nation like Pakistan to shed its is not aware of a single step taken by Pakistan to ‘cloak and dagger’ strategy against India. assuage Indian feelings and earn its trust. It has been taken for a ride for far too long. Pakistan should Suborned Indians never be trusted with respect to Siachen – it may Most worrisomely, Pakistan has been able to well resort to clandestine operations to occupy the cultivate many influential Indians through what is heights vacated by India. Once that happens, it commonly referred to as biryani diplomacy. They are will be well-nigh impossible for India to dislodge Pak frequently taken on fully-paid trips to exotic locales troops. The cost will be prohibitive. the world over, ostensibly for seminars and group Trust is a two-way process. Trust between two discussions. Lavish hospitality generates bonhomie, nations is the expectancy that one nation can rely providing ideal setting for Pak operatives to establish on the other nation’s solemn word. India should personal rapport with the Indian guests. Soon, never forget that deceit, betrayal, duplicity and such Indian friends of Pakistan start singing Pak perfidy are synonymous with Pakistan. One recalls tune and have no qualms in echoing Pak stance by the words of former Australian Test umpire Darrell misleading the Indian public. Hair. He described the Pakistani cricketers as ‘cheats, Finally, it is understandable for the Pakistani frauds and liars’. The same tag can be applied military to use the term demilitarisation as it wants to Pak leadership as well. to continue deceiving its countrymen that it is Pakistan can never be India’s friend as the poison occupying part of the glacier. However, it is simply of anti-India feeling is too deeply entrenched and it preposterous for ‘Indian friends of Pakistan’ to speak will take generations for it to abate. India’s unilateral in terms of demilitarisation and thereby mislead the offer of friendship will always be rebuffed. When public. They should be honest and refer to the a leading Pakistani paper claims that Pakistan proposal as ‘unilateral vacation of Siachen by India’. is destined to defeat India because ‘Pakistan’s And, any Indian who suggests vacation of Siachen horses in the form of atomic bombs and missiles’ should be treated as an anti-national element are far better than ‘Indian donkeys’ and boasts and tried for high treason. w

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat PAK STRATAGEM

Tackling Pakistani Terror As long as the Deep State controls Pakistani strategy and foreign policy, securing lasting peace is a pipedream. Nevertheless, diplomatic engagement is vital to find a modus vivendi. However, it must be coupled with actions to discredit the Deep State internationally and domestically.

akistan Army has long fostered the myth nuclear blackmail was psyching us came during the that one Pakistani soldier equals ten 1999 Kargil conflict, when the Government directed Indians. However, its actions have belied the Armed Forces to retake the peaks captured this fiction since it has never faced India by Pakistan without violating the Line of Control. in an overt war except in 1971. Pakistani duplicity This put our forces at a needless disadvantage and began in 1947 when it sent in tribesmen stiffened cost hundreds of additional lives – bending over by Pakistani regulars and led by a Pakistani officer, backwards to avoid provoking Pakistan even Maj Gen Akbar Khan. Later, its regular army came when it was the clear aggressor. into play. Operation Gibraltar in 1965 was similar The next event was Operation Parakram, the when its paratroopers and guerrillas disguised as punitive strike to retaliate against the attack on the locals tried to foment a Kashmiri uprising. In 1999, Indian Parliament in December 2001. On the verge Musharraf tried the same old trick in Kargil. Each of launching the strike the troops were held back, time they failed. Of course, Pakistan lost half the possibly under the US pressure. The operation was nation in 1971 when Bangladesh was born. This finally called off only in October 2002. This reinforced knocked the bottom out of the ‘Two Nation Theory’ Pakistan in its belief that it would not face any material which is Pakistan’s raison d’être. Also, it negated damage, even for the most brazen attacks. Our nonPakistan’s key argument for claiming Kashmir despite response after 26/11 in Mumbai in 2008 cemented this its legal accession to India. belief – not only in Pakistan but perhaps on our civilian In 1988, General Zia-ul-Haq, recognised that India security establishment as well. could not be defeated conventionally. He adapted the Our Defence budget has languished at around ancient Chinese strategy of t’an shih – ‘bleed India 2 per cent of GDP for decades in the mistaken belief through a thousand cuts’. As Professor C Christine that we will not have to fight a conventional war. To Fair writes, it offers Pakistan numerous advantages quote Professor Fair, ‘‘India’s current conventional like plausible deniability and posture on the international no commitment of regular border is of defensive We need to create agile troops. However, once competence instead of Pakistan became overtly offensive superiority’’. The battle groups which can nuclear, the policy’s strategic nation ‘has been reticent to undertake punitive strikes gains became its trump card. invest in the requisite military These weapons ‘ensure modernisation and personnel that the international community, always afraid policies required to decisively defeat Pakistan’. of Pakistan failing, stays engaged politically and At the Lalit Doshi Memorial Lecture at Mumbai in financially’ and deter India from undertaking military August 2015, Ajit Doval pointed out that war was action. Effectively, a means of blackmail. no longer a viable instrument to achieve political or Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attacks in India strategic goals. Coming from the highest security immediately prompt international calls for India official and that too from one who publicly espouses to exercise restraint and ‘India and Pakistan’ to the muscular State concept, this is India’s most recent resolve all outstanding disputes peacefully. When and significant signal to the Pakistani Deep State the ‘international community imposes this false that it could continue its blackmail with impunity. equivalency over the two states, Pakistan’s version of history is vindicated’. This, then, is Pakistan’s most Nuclear Weapons valuable gain from the strike. Every single commentator on the recent Pakistani attack on the Pathankot airbase has said that we Indian Response have lessons to learn so that the next attack could What about India’s response? All our actions; be dealt with more effectively. This reflects a mind statements by leaders and manifested thought -set that can best be termed as AKM – Ab-ki-Maar! But processes play into Pakistani hands and reinforce is this inevitable? Do we not have options in the face its blackmail policy. The following are the principal of the Indo-Pak nuclear stand-off? indicators: The first acknowledgement that Pakistani Actual N-threat: First we need to take a hard look

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

at the actual potency of the Pakistani nuclear threat. Nuclear weapons are for last resort and exclusively as deterrent. Bernard Brodie (the American Clausewitz of nuclear strategy) postulated in 1959, that ‘a credible nuclear deterrent, must be always at the ready, yet never used’. Deterrence, by definition is an attempt to psychologically dissuade an adversary form a course of action. Pakistan has repeatedly and at the slightest provocation issued veiled and even explicit threats of a nuclear response. These merely play on our psyche that even a minor conventional retaliation will invite a nuclear response. The most willing victims of this psyche are Western think tanks who fear that Pakistan would release the nuclear genie. Pakistani analysts are too ready to support this conclusion as it reinforces their policy of blackmail. Sadly, many armchair Indian analysts have bought into this line without deeper analysis. The NSA’s recent statement cited above is a glaring example. Our N-response: India’s policy is one of ‘no-first-use’ and ‘minimum deterrence’. This implies an assured retaliation in the event of a nuclear -strike by an adversary. In such a strike, it needs to be underscored, Pakistan would cease to exist. In our policy statements and discussions by analysts we must emphasise the point that any use of a nuclear device against us – tactical or otherwise – would invite total destruction of Pakistan by our second strike.

Imposing Costs On Pakistan

permanently win back tactically important features of our own territory across the Line of Control – perhaps even outflank the Saltoro Ridge. We could cultivate the capacity to launch covert actions in sensitive areas like PoK and Baluchistan etc. Similarly, the ability to execute a Laden style Maj General action should not be beyond Pushpendra Singh the capability of our superb (Retd) Special Forces. What is lacking The writer is a former GOC, is the political will to create such MPB & O Area. capabilities – the alternative is to continue the AKM syndrome. Diplomatic Leverage: A combination of circumstances has fortuitously given India a unique diplomatic leverage. With India replacing China as the fastest growing economy, it has emerged as ‘the one bright spark’ among the major world economies. On the other hand, European recovery has been impacted by the Fed rate hike and Eurozone countries are increasingly looking at India to boost their growth. Second, the Paris and San Bernardino terror strikes have put the West on edge. Finally, our PM’s energetic reach-out to nations across the world has enhanced our diplomatic standing. We must exploit these significant diplomatic advantages to: • Firmly rebut all efforts that counsel restraint in our response options. • Oppose any false equivalence in US and other statements. BBC termed thePathankot attackers as ‘militants’ but called the Paris assailants ‘Islamic terrorists’. Such dual standards must be exposed and shamed. • Leverage bipartisan support for India in US Congress to pressure its Government to curtail funding and arming Pakistan. • Freeze the flow of funds to Pakistani terror outfits. • Move a UN resolution to declare Pakistan a terror State.

Second, we must develop the capacity to impose costs on Pakistan. These must be done by all the means at our disposal including conventional operations, covert actions and diplomatic pressure. National Security Strategy: At the outset it needs to be clearly stated that the foremost requirement is to formulate a viable National Security Strategy – which has inexplicably not been done since independence. Obviously, the Armed Forces that have hands-on experience in dealing with Pakistan and bear the brunt every day, must be a part of the formulation process. Even the Naresh Chandra report highlighted this and other malaise impacting the Forces but has not been followed up. This apathetic attitude must Tackle The Deep State change. After World War-II Keynes advised President Roosevelt As long as the Deep State controls Pakistani strategy to enhance military spending to boost economic growth. and foreign policy, securing lasting peace is a Subsequently, a Rand study in the late 1970s also pipedream. Nevertheless, diplomatic engagement is found that military spending vital to find a modus vivendi. of upto 4-5 per cent of GDP However, it must be coupled We should firmly rebut all boosts economic growth in with actions to discredit the developing nations. Hence, we efforts that counsel restraint Deep State internationally need not face the guns versus and domestically. in our response options butter dilemma. Doubling Si vispacem, para bellum our Defence spending to (if you desire peace, be 4 per cent will spur economic growth and accelerate prepared for war – Vegetius, 4th Century AD) is pertinent in our context today. Unless we create the capacity-building of Defence Forces. Overt Response: We need to create agile battle groups capacity to impose costs on Pakistan, it will continue which can undertake limited punitive strikes where it with its policy of ‘a thousand cuts’. We can take hurts Pakistan the most. Such groups in the plains potent, multi-faceted steps to eliminate the AKM should have NBC survivability. But it will be in J&K syndrome. All that is necessary is to develop the that Pakistan can suffer significant damage as we can political will to confront the Deep State.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat PERTURBING LINKAGES

Is India prepared for ISIS challenge? Perceived notions of injustice have been a major contributory factor in luring Muslim youths to ISIS. Institutions preaching radicalisation and hatred should be curbed. Support of parents, teachers, community leaders and clerics should be garnered to deradicalise people and dispel the perceived notion of injustice.

t last, ISIS or Daesh’s presence in South dealing with it in the border States and hinterland Asia has been acknowledged. It has lured for decades. Whether stoked by religion, ideology many young Muslims from the region, who or inimical neighbours, terrorism wreaks havoc in are fighting alongside its ranks in Syria and the lives of citizens – the ultimate sufferers of the Iraq. The ISIS has a worrisome presence in many mayhem. Despite such a long and costly experience, of the Afghanistan’s provinces bordering Pakistan’s absence of a comprehensive counter-terrorism Federally Administrated Tribal Areas. Pakistan and strategy is all too evident, while the establishment Bangladesh have had violent incidents in the past is bracing itself to deal with the newest threat on linked to ISIS. India, Sri Lanka and Maldives are trying the national security horizon. Why should we worry about ISIS? Its appeal and to figure out exact number of their citizens supporting the terror group – overtly or otherwise. Further east, ideological pull on the young and educated Muslims Jakarta suicide bombings and shooting in January is an unsolved riddle to parents, teachers, community 2016 have been linked to ISIS. leaders, clerics and law and order Large number of jihadi volunteers agencies. It is difficult to explain, India remains a prime as to why teenagers and young from Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines are reportedly fighting objective for all jihadi men and women who have been for ISIS in Syria and Iraq. born and brought up in the movements Sporadic sightings of ISIS in the Western countries are joining region fit into its grandiose plan the ranks of ISIS in such large of establishing a caliphate in Khurasan – ancient numbers. India, for some time drew solace from name for large parts of Iran, Turkmenistan and the non-involvement of its citizens till the presence Afghanistan – encompassing many Asian countries of four educated youth from Mumbai fighting for and entire Indian subcontinent by 2020. ISIS in Iraq was confirmed in November 2014. Since then the numbers of Indians fighting for ISIS have Focus of ‘Final Battle’ been rising steadily. India has over six-seven million India remains a prime objective for all jihadi people working throughout the Middle East. It is movements. Islamist mythological prophecy about possible that ISIS may be scouting for new recruits Ghazwa-e-Hind (Battle of India) – final battle between from this diaspora as well. believers and non-believers in the subcontinent has immense appeal to radical minds. Besides ISIS, Recruitment Over Internet Ayman al Zawahiri, chief of Al Qaeda had also formed Perhaps, no other terror organisation has made use Al Qaeda in Indian subcontinent in September 2014. of Internet and social media for self-promotion and Growth of ISIS in India has been surreptitious. recruitment like ISIS has done so successfully. It For quite some time, the government remained in operates through numerous websites, Facebook and self-denial mode until Indians functioning as online Twitter accounts of its fighters and sympathisers sympathisers and recruiters for the terror outfit were and an ever-growing compendium of videos of its exposed by foreign media and deported. In a major horrific executions on YouTube. First contact that swoop, National Investigation Agency arrested as a person makes with ISIS is invariably over the many 14 persons on the eve of India’s Republic Day on Internet. In India alone, over 30,000 people have charges of planning terror attacks across the country. reportedly contacted the terror organisation over the For India, terrorism is an old national security Internet, leaving law and order agencies of over concern. The armed forces and police forces have been 13 affected States grappling with the situation.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

The cadres of ISIS are not madrassa-trained fanatics. These are educated and techno-savvy, who can wield a weapon or a mouse with equal ease and precision. This sophistication elevates terrorism to such a level, where it can threaten national security comprehensively. Amongst the terror organisations, ISIS stands out for its peculiar operational strategy. Visibility and defiance is its USP. It has large swathes of territory under its sway. Though outclassed in terms of military hardware, it has been waging a conventional war with its adversaries with resilience. Facing an international military intervention, ISIS has managed to hold the territory of its caliphate together for over a year.

India-specific Operations

operational flexibility. Pakistan may be at odds with ISIS today, but the possibility of formation of an anti-India alliance amongst Inter-Services Intelligence, anti-India terror groups (Laskar -e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Hizbul Mujahideen) and ISIS cannot be ruled out in future. This will facilitate ISIS to gain Col Utkarsh S Rathore entry into Kashmir and win over (Retd) Pakistan’s patronage. The writer is a risk and threat To meet ISIS threat in analyst and defence and physical terms, India may security expert. be sufficiently geared up for counter-terrorism operations, but some inadequacies still remain. Recent counter-terrorist operation at Pathankot airbase has thrown up many questions regarding the border management, intelligence sharing, fidelity of personnel, penetration by enemy agents in sensitive installations and execution of the operation itself.

What would be the form of ISIS operations against India? Considering the huge asymmetry it faces in terms of manpower and resources, ISIS would shed its visibility and prefer to operate surreptitiously through a network of modules and carry out terror attacks to cause casualties and strike fear. Despite a long record of counter-terrorism operations, India has not had many suicide bombing incidents. With ISIS Monitoring Cyberspace and its proclivity for use of suicide bombers, this may We need to adopt a strategy to monitor social change. Other forms may include ‘lone wolf’ attacks media and control (mis) use of the Internet and or attack by a small band of terrorists on high value cyber-crimes. Police and intelligence agencies should targets or use of improvised explosive devices, for now think in terms of having dedicated Internet which ISIS has unparalleled expertise. monitoring capacity. We were oblivious of Indians’ To operate in India, ISIS would involvement till such time need domestic support. It is when Mehdi Masroor Biswas, an Growth of ISIS in India engineer from Bengaluru was no surprise that it is trying to prop up the vestiges of Students arrested after a sting operation has been surreptitious Islamic Movement of India and from Channel 4 News (UK). Biswas, an ISIS sympathiser, Indian Mujahideen to raise a terror infrastructure. Bases in the neighbouring had a huge following on the social media through countries would afford better immunity and which he was spreading extremist propaganda. Crime and terror have been inter-related. Overall improvement in crime situation helps in curbing terror. Steps should be taken to check drug smuggling, organised crime, hawala transactions and cross-border infiltration. These, in a way help terror organisations and operations. Much is required to be done to control the flow of illegal arms in the country. Similarly, stringent control over explosive substances is needed. Perceived notions of injustice have been a major contributory factor in luring Muslim youths to ISIS. It is a major consolation that least number of Indians have cared to join the terror outfit. It is attributable to good parenting and liberal religious values prevailing in a common Muslim family. Institutions preaching radicalisation and hatred should be curbed. Communal harmony should be maintained at all cost. Support of parents, teachers, community leaders and clerics should be garnered to deradicalise people and dispel the perceived notion of injustice. Lastly, how to deal with young men, who have evinced interest in ISIS over the Internet? Law permitting, compassion and leniency should be shown to them. After all, interest in ISIS has emerged as a global phenomenon and not restricted to India alone.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat NETWORK OF COOPERATION

ISIS Threat To India

Role Of Indian Foreign Policy India finds itself in a strong and confident position to deal with the emerging challenge of IS in South Asia. We need to work actively to ensure that radicalisation of society does not take place and all minorities get their due place in the society.

he jihadist Sunni terrorist group Islamic State (IS) burst on the international consciousness in 2014 when it seized large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq. Since then it has become notorious for its brutality including mass killings, abductions and beheadings. In June 2014, the group formally declared the establishment of a ‘caliphate’ – a State governed in accordance with Islamic law, or Sharia, by God’s deputy on Earth, or caliph. It demanded that Muslims across the world swear allegiance to its leader, better known as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and migrate to territory under its control. IS also told other jihadist groups worldwide that they must accept its supreme authority. Many already have, among them several offshoots of the rival Al Qaeda network. Inside areas where IS has implemented its strict interpretation of Sharia, women are forced to wear full veils, public beheadings are common and non-Muslims are forced to choose between paying a special tax, converting to Islam or death.

Branching Out

Since it appeared on the global scene in mid-2014, its activities have been restricted primarily to the Middle East, specifically to Iraq and Syria. The last few months have, however, seen its operations much further away from its original area of operations. Some of these actions include the Mumbai-like terrorist attack on Paris on 13th December, 2015 killing about 130 people in different locations of the city. Its affiliate also claimed responsibility for shooting down of a Russian civilian airliner over the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt, killing all 228 on board. Several other attacks in different parts of the world including in Lebanon, USA, Indonesia and Afghanistan etc have traced their origin or inspiration to IS. This has significantly raised concerns and forced the international community to become serious in dealing with this ever expanding threat. Coalitions of different countries have been trying to battle with this grouping but with scant success so far. Notwithstanding the fact that a huge coalition of 60 countries led by USA and comprising several

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

western powers including France, UK, Germany, Australia as well as many Middle Eastern countries have been carrying out air strikes against IS in Syria and Iraq, it does not seem to have done much to bring down its strength or capacity to carry out attacks in different parts of the world. Although technically, the area under IS’s control has diminished and several of its fighters have been killed over the last two years, yet the outreach and violence perpetrated by IS continues to increase. It has become the brand icon as far as terrorist groups are concerned and its barbaric and inhuman slayings of its targets, meticulously video recorded and transmitted globally have served to enhance its ‘attractiveness’ amongst the youth and impressionable minds. It has also used the new technologies particularly social media like Facebook, Twitter and other instruments in a most creative and effective manner to co-opt young people to its ideology. The compelling appeal of IS is evident from the fact that several young men and women all over the world have decided to give up their comfortable lifestyles and well-paying jobs to join it and follow its diktat in waging a holy war against the infidels and perceived opponents of Islam.

Threat To India

Rise of IS is a matter of serious concern for India as Al Baghdadi has declared that several parts of India will be part of the Caliphate of Khorasan. He also issued a map in 2014 in which several parts of India were shown as part of the proposed caliphate. Several thousand Indian young men and women had declared their determination in 2014 to fight in support of IS to protect the holy shrines in Iraq. This had sent alarm bells ringing in the security establishment in India. According to information available, however, only about 25 individuals have actually travelled to Syria from India to join IS in its operations. A few of them have returned because the activities they were engaged in did not meet their expectations. There is increasing danger and threat of radicalisation of the youth in view of fragmentation of the Indian polity and use of divisive techniques by political parties to use the minority community in India as their vote bank. The major battle to contain the expanding ominous threat of IS will have to be fought principally at home. Intelligence gathering and collation will have to be stepped up to ensure that all militants and extremists are nabbed and neutralised before they launch attacks. Measures will also need to be undertaken to ensure that those who have been brain-washed are counselled suitably to bring them back to the mainstream. Education is the best instrument of transformation and greater focus will need to be given to emphasise India’s civilisational and historical heritage and legacy of ‘vasudhaiva kutumbakam’ under which all citizens of the country have celebrated their diversity and plural identity. As rightly pointed out by PM Modi, our diversity is our greatest strength which has not only ensured that we stay together and united as a country but also continue to grow and prosper economically. The continued existence of India as a united, democratic country has been a matter of great surprise and amazement for many scholars and analysts as several other countries with

considerably lesser diversity have broken up into different parts in recent times. Many countries have been bewildered by the fact that just a handful of youth have left India to join the IS while much smaller countries with total population of just a few million have lost several thousand of their youth who have left to join the ranks of IS.

International Consensus

Ashok Sajjanhar The writer, a postgraduate in Physics from Delhi University and a career diplomat, has served as Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia. He has also held several significant positions in Indian Embassies in Moscow, Tehran, Geneva, Dhaka, Bangkok, Washington and Brussels. He negotiated for India in the Uruguay Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations. He has been an active participant in many International Seminars organised by UNCTAD and WTO.

Foreign policy can play a big role in getting countries together to fight the ever increasing menace of IS. The most vital contribution in this regard is developing an international consensus and adopting the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) that India sponsored at the United Nations about two decades ago. Agreement has been reached on the main body of the text except for a few issues, the most important being to arrive at an agreed definition of ‘terrorism’. It has been recognised that the only beneficiaries of the protracted failure to adopt the CCIT have been the international criminals who continue to carry out their crimes with impunity. A convention would facilitate measures on the prosecution of terrorists and strengthen States’ Anuradha Sajjanhar – especially ‘Small States’ – The co-writer did her schooling capacity to confront terrorism. in Delhi, Washington, Brussels, Moscow and Bangkok. She Despite the international did her Honours in English community’s call that terrorism Literature from the University has no religious, ethnic or of York, UK and completed national identity, there are still her MA in Sociology from the many people who associate Delhi School of Economics, Delhi University. Currently, terrorism with Islam. There is she is working as a Research urgent need to support a culture Assistant at a premier think of dialogue and tolerance among tank in New Delhi. religions and civilisations, stressing the importance of preventing terrorism, particularly through education. Everyone should accept that all acts of aggression – by whoever committed – are criminal, inhumane and unjustifiable, regardless of motivation. Because it would take a network to defeat a network, there must be an all-inclusive regional and international approach for IS’s defeat. Also, since it would take an ideology to destroy the ideology of hatred propagated by IS, it is essential to create a counter-narrative of love, compassion, kindness and altruism which are the qualities promoted and advocated by all religions including Hinduism, Islam, Christianity, Judaism and others.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat NETWORK OF COOPERATION

The world has a responsibility to prevent and respond During French President Hollande’s visit to India to the threat from IS consistently and in a coordinated as the Chief Guest at Republic Day celebrations, manner based on common goals. Efforts are critical the issue of countering terrorism was the most to preventing terrorists’ access to financial resources. significant issue under discussion. However, effectiveness of those measures depends on It is imperative to build-up a solid, principled the determination of Member States to implement international coalition against terrorism. them. Countries need a continued commitment to take decisive action to address the scourge of Contradictions Galore terrorism and work with others to eliminate it. The coalition against IS led by USA has not succeeded Adoption of the Comprehensive Convention will because different partners of the grouping have their go a long way in demonstrating the resolve of the own interests which take precedence over the fight international community to fight terrorism decisively. against IS for which they have ostensibly become Prime Minister Modi has spoken on this issue in all members of this group. The real reason for Turkey to his public and private addresses and deliberations. join was to decimate the Worker’s Party of Kurdistan He brought up this issue in (PKK) rather than to fight IS. In his speech at the UN General fact, it was charged by Russia Whole world has now Assembly in September 2014. that Turkey is the conduit for Minister for External Affairs moving oil from fields controlled realised that IS is the Sushma Swaraj took it up in by IS to the international most dangerous and her address at the same forum market to generate revenue last year. Modi spoke about for their activities in the region formidable enemy and beyond. Similarly, Saudi this at the G-20 Summit in Antalya, Turkey in November Arabia and several others in last year immediately after the Paris attacks. Fight the coalition at the initial stages of the conflict were against terrorism was one of the main issues of Modi’s supporting the Al Nusra Front, earlier incarnation of discussions during his visit to Kuala Lumpur and IS as it was battling to dislodge the Alawite regime of Singapore last year in December for the East Asia and President Bashar al-Assad. It is only subsequently India-ASEAN Summits and bilateral visits. During that they have started seeing IS as an existential his visit to UAE in August last year, he spoke threat to their own security and stability and have about the need to give up differentiating between come together as a coalition of 35 nations to fight good terrorists and bad terrorists. His visit to UAE against the growing threat of IS. was particularly significant and remarkable as The whole world has now realised that IS is it found a ready and eager partner in the host the most dangerous and formidable enemy and country leadership to collaborate with India to terrorist group that it confronts. All countries vanquish the forces of terrorism. In Dhaka as well in the region and beyond, hence, need to come as during his visit to London, PM Modi accorded together to defeat them. special attention in his bilateral discussions to The reach and influence of IS has expanded to Africa, South Asia, South East Asia and crushing the scourge of terrorism.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

other regions. The IS appears to be working with Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) Bangladesh; Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) Pakistan; and several fractured and breakaway units of Al Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan to spread mayhem, violence and expand its control over additional territory.

a short-sighted policy for any government and will prove to be counter-productive as Pakistan would have realised to its own peril. President Obama has exhorted Pakistan to take resolute and decisive measures to root out all terrorist groups from its soil. International pressure on Pakistan needs to be kept up and further increased. Network Of Cooperation India has been battling terrorism for the last Countries need to closely work with each other to 30 years. It is not a new fight for us. India can exchange and share intelligence and information share volumes of its experience in fighting this about the activities of these groups or individuals menace, both internally and externally, with other associated or affiliated with them. countries who are faced with this Sharing of real time intelligence is challenge now. This is particularly very crucial in effectively dealing relevant and significant for Rise of IS is a with plans being hatched by them reaching out to countries in the matter of serious to spread mayhem and arrest those Middle East as the impact of IS will who are planning to carry out such be felt the most in this region in concern for India attacks. Information shared by CIA the coming years. India has huge with Indian Intelligence Agencies stakes in this region as 7 million of about the conspiracy to carry out seven simultaneous our countrymen live in the Middle East. We receive terrorist attacks around India’s Republic Day on about US$ 42 billion in remittances from the region January 26, 2016 has been instrumental in arresting from our diaspora who reside there. This area also several terrorists who had sneaked into the country contributes in a significant manner to our energy from across the border to carry out these attacks. security as India imports around 60 per cent of its It is deplorable that countries like Pakistan energy needs from this volatile region. continue to use terrorism as an instrument of India finds itself in a strong and confident their State policy. Supporting, funding, financing, position to deal with the emerging challenge of training and providing sanctuaries to terrorists have IS in South Asia. It is, however, imperative that become a part of the security doctrine of Pakistan. It we should not be complacent. We need to is imperative that if peace, stability and security is work actively to ensure that radicalisation of society to be restored in Afghanistan, Central Asia and the does not take place and all minorities get broader South Asia region, adequate international their due place in the society. Prime Minister Modi’s pressure be applied on countries like Pakistan so that policy of ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikaas’ is a move they stop abetting and supporting some groups of in the right direction. It needs to be acted upon terrorists to carry out attacks against other countries and implemented with greater energy and particularly India and Afghanistan, while acting enthusiasm while at the same time building against some others who threaten the Pakistani and strengthening international coalitions to State and establishment. Supporting terrorism is defeat this menace.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

Siachen UNILATERAL WITHDRAWAL

Under Threat Of Abrogation Of

Indus Waters Treaty Consequent to Indian action to vacate positions on the Saltoro range, if Pakistan moves in and occupies these vacated positions, then it will be taken as an act of aggression. India will have to exercise the option to open another front, of its choosing. This needs to be made clear to Pakistan and the world community, including World Bank (which helped negotiate the Indus Water Treaty) that such an act of aggression by Pakistan would impact on the Indus Water Treaty.

â&#x20AC;&#x153;The history of strategy is, fundamentally, a record of the application and evolution of the indirect approachâ&#x20AC;?, Sir Basil Liddell Hart.

he February 3 tragedy at Sonam Post on the Siachen glacier, where the Indian Army lost 10 of its soldiers in an avalanche, has once more brought to the fore the issue of holding on to this most forbidding piece of land on earth. Since 1984, when the Indian army pre-empted Pakistani troops in occupying the Saltaro Range, it has suffered far greater number of casualties from the vagaries of climate, altitude and weather than enemy action. In the same area, west of Saltaro

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

Range, Pakistani troops in 2012, suffered over 120 casualties in a massive avalanche. When the CeaseFire Line (CFL) was drawn, consequent to the 1965 war with Pakistan, the demarcation of this line ended at Point NJ 9842 and thenceforth, the line was taken as extending northwards to the glaciers. Both, geographically and according to the practice adopted in the mountains, such lines following the watershed principle, which in this case runs along the Saltaro Range. Somehow

and erroneously, Pakistan has been taking this line to extend from Point NJ 9842 to the Karakoram Pass. The Saltaro Range dominates the Siachen glacier to the east and Pak positions to its west.

No Withdrawal: Army Chief

While the political executive in India did not want the troops to cross the LoC in this area, it was for the military to impress upon it the imperatives of outflanking the Pak ingress. It may be recalled that in1965, the then Army chief was able to get the Prime Minister to agree to open a second front against Pakistan across the international border, as against Lt Gen Harwant Singh PVSM, AVSM (Retd) confining the conflict to the LoC The writer was commissioned only. During 1971, the then in 1955 and joined armoured Prime Minister and his cabinet corps. He has been Brigade insisted that army march into Major of an Independent East Pakistan during April-May armoured brigade, General itself, but the Army Chief had Staff Officer-1 of an armoured division and commanded declined to do so and mounted School of Armoured Warfare. an offensive many months later, Has been senior instructor at only when it was appropriate to the War College.Commanded do so. Therefore, had the Indian a mountain brigade and an armoured brigade.Was army, adequately impressed Deputy Director Operational upon the political executive, it’s compulsions for adopting indirect Logistics and Director General Weapon and Equipment at approach and with due deception Army Headquarters. Raised measures etc taken Skardu, the first Reorganised Army Plains Infantry Division (RAPID) Siachen problem would have been resolved for good. It was left to an and fielded it in Exercise Brass officer from the Pakistan army, Tacks as defending commander. Commanded a corps in J&K in an article, to state that India and retired as Deputy Chief of should have gone for Skardu, Army Staff in August 1992. rather than adopt a costly and totally defensive response at Kargil. Be that as it may.

After the recent tragedy at the glacier, which drew the nation’s attention to the risk to life and hardships troops endure in this area, there have been voices questioning the utility of holding on to the glacier. The Army chief, during a recent interview to the press, asserted that the withdrawal of troops from the glacier remains out of the question and that holding on to the heights (Saltaro Range) is of immense strategic significance. To the west of the Saltaro Range, at an approximate distance of 200 kms is the road Chinese have built, linking Tibet region with Gilgit (Karakoram highway). This road would eventually be supplemented by a rail link to Gwadar Port of Pakistan. Subsequently, a pipeline for oil too may be laid. From Saltaro Range to this road-rail complex (also called the economic corridor), lies the world’s most difficult terrain to traverse. To the north lies the Shaksgam Valley (illegally conceded to China by Pakistan) across the Indira Col. Only a small mountaineering expedition can attempt to reach this valley from Indian positions on the Saltaro range-Siachen glacier. Similarly, to the northeast lies the Karakoram Pass, across a group of first magnitude peaks of the world. Area south of this pass is held by Indian troops and beyond it lies Aksai Chin, illegally occupied by China. The Saltaro Range (or for that matter Siachen glacier) beyond Point NJ 9842 provides no depth for the defence of Leh, across Ladakh Range Vacate Indian Territory? and the Khardungla pass on it. Therefore, strategic Additionally, holding on to Saltaro Range is a very value of occupying Saltaro Range is much expensive proposition both in economic terms and misunderstood and as such is notional, at best. lives. Yet, it is Indian Territory and therefore, the Political class in India country cannot vacate it has, by and large, opted without adequate safeguards. to remain oblivious of the Strategic value of occupying Equally for Pakistan to hold intricacies of national on to the lower slopes to the Saltaro Range is much security related issues but west of Saltaro range is a more so of the compulsions misunderstood and as such is costly proposition, both in terms of human lives and of military strategy notional, at best monetary. Futility of this and options. Therefore, confrontation at this most military's top brass has the added responsibility of apprising and impressing forbidding terrain is realised by both sides and upon the political executive, the necessity of yet Pakistan has been displaying unwillingness appropriate military reaction to an act of flagrant aggression against the country.

Skardu Riposte

At the time of ingress at Kargil by Pakistan, the best Indian option was to adopt the ‘strategy of indirect approach’ and go for Skardu, rather than condemn troops to frontal attacks, up impossible slopes. That would have unhinged the entire extent of ingress in the Kargil region. After all, Pakistan had crossed into Indian Territory on a very wide front which, on all counts, was a blatant act of aggression and an appropriate response from India was called for.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

Siachen UNILATERAL WITHDRAWAL

to agree to the proposal to extend the AGPL Pakistan can be accused of violating the Shimla (Actual Ground Position Line) along the Agreement (violating CFL) by its aggression at Saltaro range, right upto Indira Col and demilitarise the Kargil and Pakistan, in turn, blames India, though Siachen glacier area. incorrectly, of similar act at the Saltaro range People of Pakistan have been made to believe /Siachen. India abides by the CFL agreement and the fib that its army is in occupation of parts where the CFL ends (there on called AGPL in this of the Siachen glacier. Consequently, any area), it runs along a line northwards of Point NJ solution which extends the AGPL along the 9842. It merely pre-empted Pakistan from occupying Saltaro range belies this stance of Pakistan the Saltaro range by only a few days. However, government/army. However, to adopt a rigid position Pakistan projects a different position. While the past just because of this one factor cannot be justified. carries lessons for the future, there is little to be India and Pakistan cannot remain in a perpetual gained by being prisoner to the past. state of hostility. The sooner this point is realised, by both the countries, the better it will serve their Suggested Solution individual interest. Though India can afford to In case Pakistan continues to disagree to authenticate bear the economic burden of holding on to the the present set of positions and were India to decide Saltaro range, the same is adversely impacting to unilaterally vacate its position on the Saltaro Pakistanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s fragile economy. range, then before vacating, The Indian position all these positions need be Pakistan has been unwilling along has been that there marked on the ground, in to agree to the proposal to can be no redrawing of whatever manner possible, boundaries in J&K. It shown to the international extend the Actual Ground implies that there can be no press and satellite pictures altering of CFL (LoC) and taken. These pictures Position Line (AGPL) the same goes for AGPL. should be put out in While the issue of J&K has the international press. defied resolution, delinking Siachen can offer an Thereafter, the area be kept under surveillance to opportunity to move forward and it is something know of any occupation of the same by Pakistan. that both sides need grasp. Consequent to Indian action to vacate positions on the Saltaro range, if Pakistan moves in and AGPL: Reason To Suspect Pakistan occupies these vacated positions, then it will be The resolution of Siachen issue is held up on taken as an act of aggression and in that case, Pakistanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s refusal to acknowledge and mark the India will have to exercise the option to open ground positions of troops of the two countries on another front, of its choosing. This needs to be the Saltaro ridge. While India insists that no pull made clear to Pakistan and the world community, back can take place without delineation on the maps including World Bank (which helped negotiate and authentication of the same on the ground by the Indus Water Treaty) that such an act of both sides, Pakistan baulks from such an agreement. aggression by Pakistan would also impact other Therefore, India has reason to suspect the intentions agreements and treaties between the two countries, and motives of Pakistan. Mutual distrust runs deep the Indus Water Treaty for one. in both the countries. As of now, both countries are stuck at Siachen.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat DANGEROUS RABBLE ROUSING

Role Of Stakeholders In Perception Management The most important ingredient which is required to defeat ISIS is ‘trust’. Trust between individuals, trust between communities, trust between Government and communities. Here political parties, leaders and religious heads have a very important role to play.

he spectre of terrorism and religious hatred in the form of ISIS has raised its ugly head across the world. After the recent Paris attacks, the United Nations Security Council passed a unanimous resolution stating that ‘The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant constitutes a global and unprecedented threat to international peace and security’ and called upon all Member-States to join the fight against the ISIS. As India has huge stakes in the West Asian region, the rise of the ISIS and its implications have been of serious concern for India. So far the ISIS has not been a direct physical challenge for India, but it needs to remain cautious of the potential threat that the group may pose. The recent arrest of IS sympathisers from different locations within the country points to biggest threat to our security in the making.

What Is ISIS?

Exemplifying a highly radical form of Islam, ISIS is a Salafi jihadist militant group that follows an Islamic fundamentalist, Wahhabi doctrine of Sunni Islam. It is Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s self-proclaimed Islamic Caliphate – also called ISIS, ISIL and Daesh.

Capitalising On Social Media

Terrorists are exploiting Internet for propaganda, recruiting, fundraising and cyber-attacks. The Islamic State has intensified the challenge; it is more active and has more intensity than previous terrorist groups. The ISIS has a separate wing for social media and recruitment and these people come from various countries that have brilliantly used social media for its campaign. Official channels of ISIS are mostly blocked, so the group uses search terms and hash-tags to enable viewers to find and share its publicity materials online. Intimidating signals have been sent across its areas of operation and reach by way of showcasing gruesome and brutal videos of killing and slaughtering non-believers, gays, enemy soldiers and other victims. There are many people who have joined ISIS only to survive its terror campaign. Fundraising is another use of social media by the group. According to Paul Jevtovic, head of Australia’s financial intelligence agency, the

Islamic State terrorist group is turning to social media for crowd-funding of its activities.

Ashutosh Kr Mishra The writer is Executive Director of Transparency International India. In TII, he deals with Corporate and financial frauds, Integrity Pact and whistleblower protection related cases.

What It Means For India?

While India has been a victim of terrorism since 1980s, terrorism, particularly jihadi terrorism, has taken centre stage in the world post 9/11; India has been facing this problem for last three decades. In the security assessments of the subcontinent, terrorism has always been a factor to contend with. With jihadi groups active in Kashmir, Indian Mujahideen network and Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) vulnerable sections can easily be attracted towards ISIS and the results can be disastrous. The recent arrest of former IM members having link with ISIS has substantiated this presumption. Although the IS group doesn’t have a strong on ground presence in the nation as yet, it has started to baffle the national leadership and investigative agencies owing to its unusually dangerous modus operandi. Al-Baghdadi has openly proclaimed the intention of ISIS to expand eastwards to establish the Islamic State of Khorasan that would include Afghanistan, the Central Asian Republics, eastern Iran and Pakistan. The final battle, Ghazwa-e-Hind – a term from Islamic mythology – will be fought to extend the caliphate to India. Indian subcontinent would come under ‘Khorasan’, the Arabic name given to it. An ISIS branch has already been established in the subcontinent. The connection between IM, a terror group that has been responsible for several attacks in India and the IS is also a cause for concern for Indian authorities. In fact, among the six Indians, who fought alongside IS and got killed; three were IM terrorists, including Sultan Ajmer Shah and Bada Sajid, who had joined its ranks after being in Pakistan. The paranoia generated so far around the group’s intentions is not unfounded. As an alarming signal, the local youth is being influenced or motivated to be part of the ISIS network. There are also many who are covertly becoming sympathisers of the terror outfit. Indians living in the Gulf region also comprise the vulnerable population. There is always a possibility of some of them coming in contact with the radical elements at the local level.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat DANGEROUS RABBLE ROUSING India has the world’s third largest Muslim population. Students, especially college going, should be By and large, Indian Muslims have remained sensitised about the threats from ISIS and they detached from the ISIS. However, there are a handful must be encouraged to report to the agencies, in of misguided youth who have joined ISIS. In the last case they find any change in activity or the nature few months, the Anti-Terror Squad has conducted of their friends. To make it safe and user friendly, numerous raids and searches across the entire Government may create secure online portal where nation, detaining suspects and making arrests. any individual can share information related to In May 2014, four youths from Kalyan township potential or current terrorist related activities, in Thane district had gone without being exposed to the to Syria to join the IS. One including police The media has a major role outsiders of them, Areeb Majeed, and media. The involvement returned and is currently in of people in the operational to play in fight against NIA custody. On September work of police will be a fair online brand of terrorism 15, 2015, the UAE deported and non-discriminatory four Indians suspected to method of tackling the have links with IS. The UAE had also sent back menace of terrorism. People need to be sensitised in September a 37-year-old woman, Afsha Jabeen about their role as law-abiding citizens and extending alias Nicky Joseph, who was allegedly involving cooperation to the national agencies fighting for in recruiting youths for the terror organisation. In national security. In 2012, Goa police launched December, a 16-year-old Muslim girl from Pune was Saad Samvad, a community policing initiative. It reportedly radicalised by her IS contacts abroad involved police meeting the public, NGOs and other and brainwashed to go to Syria. Among those who institutions on a regular basis and seeking their are currently fighting for IS are two youths from inputs on various policing aspects. Police hope to Kalyan (in the outskirts of Mumbai), an Australia improve intelligence gathering through this initiative -based Kashmiri, one youth from Telangana, one Terrorism can’t operate in vacuum, there is no from Karnataka, one Oman-based Indian and another concept of so called ‘Stateless actors’, every terrorist activity is funded by either its own resources or by Singapore-based Indian. To deal with ISIS we need a multipronged strategy funds provided by sympathisers which may include States or individuals. The ISIS is thriving on money and action at multiple levels: generated by sale of oil in black market, extortion Government from citizens and companies in its area, sale of stolen Intelligence gathering is the most important antiquities in foreign markets and support from its area which needs immediate attention; in the sympathisers across the world. India must press era of Internet it is very difficult to locate who for international cooperation to cut off all sources all have sympathy with the agenda of ISIS. The of ISIS finance and block all ISIS efforts to launder disenchantment with system, depression, religious its cash through the international finance system. hatred, adventurism all can attract youth, especially At the domestic front, Governmental agencies must teenagers, to terrorist organisations such as ISIS. keep track of all funds flowing from abroad especially

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

from Middle East to shady companies, NGOs and religious institutions and individuals, in this area also community policing can act as eyes and ears of the government. Government must ensure enforcement of anti-money-laundering regulations. Recent exposes related to a few banks show how vulnerable we are when it comes to transaction of ‘hawala’ and black money. The government should make coordinated efforts to keep a tab on anti-national elements operating both within and outside its territory. Effective de-radicalisation programmes would also help in bringing the radicalised youth back into the social mainstream. India should also deploy the RAW in its counter-terror missions.

projected as the number one enemy. The onus lies on the national media to understand the sensitivity Ministry Of External Affairs of the issue, to understand and to counter the Engagement with other nations is another viable Islamic State propaganda by waging a wider and option for Indian authorities to counter IS. Prime deeper debate on the false interpretation of faith to Minister Narendra Modi proposed at the G-20 eulogise a single religion or sect. summit that the war against terrorism must The media can also cooperate with the government isolate and contain the sponsors and supporters of in initiating counter-propaganda and facilitating terrorism. He clearly implied that India is willing to de-radicalisation programmes. This could involve join the international coalition against the ISIS and intensifying Counter Violent Extremism (CVE) efforts. other non-State actors. Besides contributing to the The CVE is focussed on ‘countering the pull of terrorist global war against terrorism, India’s participation recruitment and influence by building resilience would help to isolate the Pakistan Army and the ISI among populations vulnerable to radicalisation’. In – the foremost State sponsors this, India can also take a cue of terrorism. In a recent UN from other nations. The British By and large, Indian Security Council meeting, held Army has created a special Muslims have remained on December 17, 2015, it was force – the 77th Brigade – the agreed by all attending parties ‘Facebook Warriors’, skilled detached from the ISIS that ISIS can be eliminated in psychological operations. only by international The French Ministry of cooperation and here MEA can play a very important Interior has produced a new counter-jihad website role by sharing of information, intelligence and aimed at discouraging young people from joining IS with graphic images and messages. The US providing logistic support. In all ISIS cases which were reported in Indian media, State Department created the Center for Strategic we can find a direct link in all cases pointing towards Counter-terrorism Communications (CSCC) which the role played by actors sitting in Middle East region. attempts to engage violent extremists in online The MEA must involve the Indian diaspora in this region debate, contesting their claims in an attempt to for effectively controlling the radicalisation of youth dissuade others from joining them. working in the Middle East; it should also enhance The most important ingredient which is required the level of confidence among workers working in the to defeat ISIS is ‘trust’. Trust between individuals, region to report any effort by ISIS sympathisers and trust between communities, trust between recruiters to recruit Indians into ISIS. Government and communities. Here political parties, leaders and religious heads have a very important Media role to play. In the past few years, there have been In an attempt to gain popularity and wide coverage unwanted and inflammatory comments from different forms of media have resorted to demonising different leaders. Though it may benefit their political Islam while reporting the incidents of terrorism. It is ambition in the short-term but in the longer run it being projected as if militant Islam seems to represent is going to hamper our national unity. Government all Muslims including Indian Muslims and every must involve heads of different sects to make them Muslim sympathises with ISIS, which is totally wrong. understand evils of ISIS and train them on counter In a multi-ethnic and multi-religious nation such as -ISIS advocacy programmes within the Muslim community. The recent meeting organised by Home India, this can be counter-productive. The media has a major role to play in fight against Minister Rajnath Singh is a welcome and right step online brand of terrorism. Instead of sensationalising to contain ISIS influence in India. Last but not the the issue, credible and responsible news spreading least, since communalism directly and indirectly should be the overarching agenda. A key task of provides a base for terrorism, it is high time for us journalism, thus, should be to cultivate a sense of to have strong anti-communalism and anti-terrorism critical awareness, at a time when Islam is being policy with involvement of all stakeholders.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat ILLUSORY PRESENCE

ISIS In India

Possibilities And Realities

The ISIS is fanatically sectarian. On the other hand, India is a liberal and secular nation with long history of pluralism and multi-culturalism. It is not easy to radicalise the Indian population.

he ISIS has replaced Al Qaeda as the world’s foremost and deadliest terrorist organisation, surpassing previous records of brutality, fanaticism and limitless savagery. The terrorist group is rapidly expanding, adding new territory and swelling its ranks with fighters from across the globe. Today, France considers ISIS to be its greatest enemy, the Americans are exploring new ways to prevent the expansion of ISIS without committing boots on ground, the Iranians are struggling to contain it and the Shias of Iraq are gearing up to prevent Bagdad from falling in the hands of ISIS. Closer home, ISIS is making inroads in Afghanistan and trying to replace Taliban. In January 2016, it bombed the Pakistan Consulate at Jalalabad and carried out bombings in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta. Thus, footprints of ISIS exist to the west of India and to the east of India, raising the inevitable question – ISIS in India?

Illusory Presence In India

By all predictions, 2016 will see ISIS expanding and unfixable. According to Ian Bremmer in Time magazine, the most vulnerable States will remain those whom ISIS has explicit reasons to target – France, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and US – and those with the largest numbers of unintegrated Sunni Muslims, like Iraq and Lebanon. While India is mercifully out of these lists, there are causes for worry. A simmering terrorism in

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

Kashmir with protestors waving ISIS flags, Indian youths getting radicalised on social media platforms and leaving to fight in brutal desert wars and our own security vulnerabilities in terms of infiltration avenues, absence of inter-agency coordination and ineffective policing. India remains on the radar of ISIS ideologically as they aim to expand their Caliphate to all the lands that have been under control of Islamic rulers in the past, from Spain to the Indian subcontinent. Formally, the Mughal Empire had ceased to exist only in 1857, with Bahadur Shah Zafar deported to Rangoon by the British where he composed poignant ghazals till his death in 1862. While there are reports of ISIS obtaining local support in southern Afghanistan and in Baluchistan, it cannot enter Afghanistan or Pakistan by claiming to be a defender of Sunni Arab populations. There are no Arabs there. Nearby, Iran is primarily ‘Shia’ and ‘Persian’ rather than Arab. The current American and NATO presence in Afghanistan shall prevent ISIS from expanding its toehold in that embattled country. Taliban and ISIS are competing radical organisations with no history of cooperation. Au contraire, Taliban has already called ISIS an apostate and has termed its practices as cruel. Therefore, like the Kurdish Peshmerga, Taliban may give a bitter fight to ISIS in Af-Pak region. In spite of these hurdles in expansion towards India, there remains a possibility of ISIS launching an offshoot in South Asia.

Affiliates

However, according to J&K Police, The ISIS now has affiliated militant groups in at this has been more of an attention least 11 countries, including Nigeria and Russia. In -grabbing move by the young Bangladesh, the recent terror attack at Bogra was men who wave the flags. Cases claimed by ISIS, though the Bangladesh government have been registered against the has denied the claim. In Af-Pak region, the former men who raised ISIS flags but Indian Mujahideen (IM) members who had fled India, investigations have not shown any have been some of the handlers of ISIS aspirants from ideological connections. Possibly, India. Sultan Armar Shah, now dead, who hailed from the ISIS flags are a reflection Bhatkal in Karnataka, was one such handler. These of increasingly desperate and Col Shailender Arya former IM members are in touch with their contacts radicalised Kashmiri youth, who The writer is an alumnus of in India as well as with former SIMI members. These are equally disenchanted with RIMC, Dehradun and NDA, handlers may also target the large Indian diaspora politics, separatists and the job Khadakwasla. He has served as working in the Gulf countries who remains vulnerable market and are looking for ISIS as GSO 2 of a mountain artillery due to prevailing political turmoil in these countries a new alternative. As of now, they brigade on the Line of Control, a company commander with and the lack of family support. The ISIS may, therefore, may be seeking media headlines, Assam Rifles in Nagaland exploit the possibility of piggybacking on existing terror but the flag-waving nevertheless and as a Staff Officer with the modules of IM to enter India. remains a cause of concern. United Nations. He is an MSc The terror movements in India receive cross-border Kashmir never owed its in Weapon Technology from support from Pakistan. However, the ISI and the sorrows to the spread of Poona University and an MSc in Pakistan Army only support those groups whom so-called international ‘Islamic Defence and Strategic Studies it is able to direct and control. The examples are Jihad’ but to the proxy war by from Madras University. He has served as a GSO 1 (Operations) numerous. In the Northeast, they lost interest in Pakistan. Its first terrorist group of a newly raised AR Sector NSCN (IM) when they refused to dictated terms and JKLF was almost religion-neutral HQ in a counter-insurgency followed an independent agenda. In Kashmir, the ISI in its outlook before the influx environment in South Manipur replaced JKLF which had a Kashmir-centric identity of foreign terrorists pushed by and is now commanding his unit with pro-Pakistan tanzeems like Hizbul Mujahideen Pakistan hardened religious on the Line of Control in J&K. and LeT. In fact, as evident by the assassinations of positions and led to the exodus of Abdul Gani Lone and Mirwaiz Farooq, any separatist Kashmiri Pandits. Their flags notwithstanding, ISIS not towing the ISI line is at grave risk of elimination has no social and political acceptability in Kashmir by pro-Pakistan terrorists, as revealed in AS Dulat’s with even the extremist sections in the religious recent book, Kashmir : The Vajpayee Years. Therefore, camp abhorring its idea of Islam. Hardliner Syed Ali since Pakistan cannot control Geelani has dubbed ISIS as ISIS, we are possibly safe. anti-Islamic which (allegedly, The ISIS now has Discounting the lone-wolf terror according to him) has been attacks inspired by brilliant affiliated militant groups created and patronised by online ISIS propaganda, the US and Israel and urged the in at least 11 countries ISIS will have to wade across Kashmiri youth to not wave Pakistan to India. Pakistan, Islamic State flags. Similarly, ironically, is our prime buffer against ISIS, unless across the Line of Control, Syed Salahuddin of course they are run over by ISIS or decide to cautioned the militants in particular and Kashmiri youth in general, not to fall prey to the surrender the terror remote control to ISIS. so-called religious propaganda of ISIS.

ISIS Flags In Srinagar

In September 2015, a national survey by an intelligence agency showed that the highest Internet traffic related to ISIS was from J&K. The next in line was Assam, where the State police is keeping a strict watch on Internet traffic. In J&K, 2015 witnessed a spurt in the number of local Kashmiris joining the ranks of terrorists with 22-year-old Burhan Wani emerging as the poster boy of this so-called ‘new wave’. The Army figures released few months back to media stated that there are 229 terrorists active in the Kashmir Valley, 51 of whom are foreign terrorists. In downtown Srinagar, there are increasing instances of ISIS flag waving after the Friday prayers. Flags are quite symbolic in Kashmir. It was at Lal Chowk that Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru first unfurled the national flag in 1948. The ISIS flag has the same banner as the flag of Boko Haram and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia – Shahada or Kalimah Tayyiba and may have attracted the Kashmiris.

Kashmiriyat Rebuffs ISIS

Kashmir and ISIS are indeed worlds apart. The religious discourse in Kashmir is heavily influenced by the pluralistic culture of Kashmiriyat and the age-old Sufi traditions. Sufism arrived in Kashmir as early as 13th century with Sufi saint Shai Karman from the Iranian city of Karman. Kashmiris, apparently have noted the treatment of Syrians, Yezidis, Kurds and Shias by ISIS, merely because they follow a different Islam. The police have concluded that all those who have been arrested on accusations of waving ISIS flags have done so less out of ideological commitment and more to irritate the Central government. In fact, Naseer Ganai of Mail Today has narrated a revealing incident wherein one teenager was arrested for waving an ISIS flag in Srinagar. This arrest greatly amused his elder brother who stated that “My brother doesn’t pray, doesn’t sport a beard, I know he has a girlfriend

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

ISIS threat ILLUSORY PRESENCE

too, and he listens to music and at the same time he was arrested for waving an ISIS flag”. According to the writer, the ISIS would have surely flogged to death such a fan of its ideology.

Luring Indian Youth

The ISIS has a robust social media campaign that acts as a propaganda front for recruitment and donations. It has created many Twitter apps; those with the app receive tweets posted to their Twitter accounts with links, hash-tags and images. Its propaganda arm publicly releases periodic reports and videos on its progress in multiple languages. The ISIS skillfully recruits young women and often uses them as ‘honeytrap’ to induce youths. It has also adopted a unique high-risk religious strategy. With the announcement of the Caliphate, it is religiously compulsory for all Muslims to give bay’ah (allegiance) to Caliph Ibrahim II and the Caliphate with dissenters labelled as apostates or sinners. This is evidently an audacious strategy which has caused great contention among the Muslim community. The ISIS socio-religious recruitment strategy seems to be working. Nearly 30,000 foreign recruits have now poured into Syria, a worrying doubling of volunteers in just one year in spite of concerted international efforts to tighten borders, share intelligence and enforce anti-terrorism laws. An Indian origin person has recently acquired the dubious distinction of being the new ‘Jihadi John’. The Indian-origin British Siddhartha Dhar, now known as Abu Rumaysah, is believed to be the masked executioner in the latest ISIS video featuring the killing of five hostages. Unemployed youth are radicalised easily, no matter where they are or which religion they profess. The women, in particular, are more vulnerable and easy targets as women recruits. Many young women fall for offers of money or promise of marriage and an adventure-filled life. From India, according to latest figures, a total of 23 Indians have gone to ISIS held areas in Iraq-Syria to fight for the group. Of them, six were reportedly killed in Syria while one returned home in Mumbai. Among those who are currently fighting for ISIS include two youth from Kalyan near Mumbai, an Australia-based Kashmiri, one youth from

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

Telangana, one from Karnataka, one Oman-based Indian and another Singapore-based Indian. Sixty others including engineers, chartered accountants and medical professionals in their ranks have been stopped at various Indian airports from going to join the ISIS. Apart from them, around 150 are under surveillance for displaying pro-ISIS tendencies in their online behaviour. The 150 people are mostly from South India and are believed to be attracted to the ISIS and sympathetic to the group’s activities. In January 2016, there was another spate of arrests related to ISIS. Delhi Police arrested four members of ISIS who were in touch with handlers in Syria and Iraq and were planning a terrorist attack ahead of Republic Day at targets such as the ArdhKumbh in Haridwar and prominent shopping malls of Delhi-NCR like Select Citywalk, Saket; DLF Promenade, VasantKunj; and the Great India Place in Noida. It was also revealed that ISIS had roped in Ansar Ud Tawhid Bilal Al Hind (AUT), a small terrorist group whose members originally belonged to IM, to provide ground support in India. Overall, there were 14 arrests all over India including the bursting of an ISIS cell headed by Mudabbir Mushtaq Shaikh alias Abu Musab. In addition, the NIA recently arrested three Indian sympathisers of ISIS who were deported from the United Arab Emirates for allegedly being on a mission to carry out terror attack in India. They were members of the Abu Dhabi module of the ISIS. However, in spite of these high-profile arrests, the security agencies have been largely successful and the overall figure of merely 100 (joined, arrested or prevented from travelling) from India is commendable. On this score, we fare much better than UK or even a distant Australia, from where hundreds have left to join ISIS. While some Indian youth may get attracted to this bizarre allure, their parents are taking corrective measures. In September 2015, it was the worried parents who reported about their 15 missing engineering students including a girl from Hyderabad to the Telangana Police who then tracked them down in West Bengal. The students had planned to fly to Iraq from West Bengal. Within ISIS, there are tensions between foreign recruits and local Arab populations. Reports indicate that the few Indians who reached there were not given fighting roles and were treated inferior to the

Arab fighters. This discrimination should discourage any Indian contemplating affection for ISIS.

Deradicalisation Strategy

On the other hand, India is a liberal and secular nation with long history of pluralism and The Indian Mitigation multiculturalism. It is not easy to radicalise the The ISIS is worrying as it is an ideology, political Indian population. Even the IM at its peak was no movement and State all rolled into one. Olivier Roy in more than a hundred persons. While ISIS may have New York Times described it as more like a Caliphate, been successful in grooming and recruiting young forever in conquest mode – occupying new lands, western Muslims from Luton to Lagos, in India, they rallying Muslims from around the world, much like the have encountered a tolerant culture, strong family Muslim expansionist movement during Islam’s first bonds and positive societal linkages. India is fighting century. This has attracted thousands of volunteers, terror in its own way. And cheaper as well when drawn by the idea of fighting for global Islam rather compared to estimates of US spending US$ 300,000 than for a piece of the Middle East. Against ISIS, a US per hour for air strikes against ISIS. The country has led international coalition is now firming up, though adopted the unique Indian strategy of deradicalisation Syria and Iraq are headed for years of instability. to combat this threat. Many of those who were As regards military participation in these anti-ISIS prevented from travelling to Iraq and Syria were not operations, India has stated that it can undertake arrested but instead put through extensive counselling operations against ISIS under a UN flag if the global sessions. It has apparently worked. There are no body adopts a resolution. We need not get involved knee-jerk arrests of Indian youth attracted by ISIS. in an essentially Middle Eastern conflict. India, in Volunteers are working among parents and sensitising spite of US coercion, had resisted sending Indian them on any behavioural change among their children troops to fight in Iraq post 2003 war for ‘stabilisation wherein they suddenly become very religious or spend operations’. Today, even Americans are revisiting their a lot of time on networking sites. decision to launch this Iraqi invasion. All Muslim religious organisations, Ulema and even A school of thought is emerging that tie-clad sectarian political parties have raised their voice against and clean-shaven dictators are preferable to ISIS. Posters deriding ISIS now dot narrow by-lanes or Caliphate dreaming fanatics. Saddam Hussein and galis of Indian towns. In Mumbai, as a New Year Bashar al-Assad are almost virtuous compared to resolution for 2016, a group of city Muslims led by NGO Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the ISIS madman. They Sahas Foundation and think tank Urdu Markaz had kept their country together before the needless launched ‘Muslims against ISIS’ campaign, denouncing interventions destabilised the existing order and the terror organisation’s brutalities and chalking out unleashed ISIS. However, ISIS steps to stop youths from is a recent phenomenon and becoming IS recruits. Indians Indian Muslims are mostly have largely understood that not without its own emerging fault lines. Much like Al Qaeda, of a Sufi persuasion which ISIS is essentially a problem of ISIS has no visible support the Middle East. According to the ISIS ideology detests among the Muslims living in an analysis by Shekhar Gupta, Europe. It recruits only at the the basic difference from Middle margins, Paris attacks including. The ISIS is also East here is that the Indian subcontinent’s Muslims, fanatically sectarian. It is essentially a Sunni extremist particularly the Indian Muslims, are mostly of a Sufi movement fighting for a deeply intolerant persuasion which the ISIS ideology detests even more interpretation of Islam, seeking to impose a ruthless than idolatry. Equally, India’s Muslims fear and oppose system of justice and punishment that targets women ISIS. Indian Muslims and the right kind of Islam they and adherents of other branches of Islam, particularly practice, are in fact, a giant bulwark against the spread Shias. The real war of ISIS is with fellow Muslims and of the ISIS. An odd flag in Lal Chowk notwithstanding, the ISIS is not taking roots in India. other interpretations of Islam.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

When should a patient be referred for IVF IVF, meaning In vitro fertilization refers to fertilization of the sperm and egg outside the body, formation of embryos in the laboratory and then transfer of these embryos into the uterus.

he history of IVF goes back to July 1978 when the first IVF baby-Louise Brown was born in UK. Very soon in October 1978 the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 2nd IVF baby, Durga was born in Kolkata under the pioneering guidance of Dr Subhash Mukherjee. Unfortunately, his work was not acknowledged in his lifetime and was only given credit after his demise. There were quick development in this field since then. In 1984 the first frozen embryo baby was born California, USA. The first ICSI baby was born in 1992 in Brussels. In 1993, it was discovered that pregnancy can be created from sperms retrieved from the testis in men with obstructive azoospermia.The first frozen egg baby was born in 2007 in Canada. Certain pre-requisites need to be fulfilled before a patient is referred for IVF treatment. IVF has to be done for clearly laid down medical indications, patient has to be to be medically fit. The couple should be emotionally and financially counselled.

day 2 FSH and estradiol are ways to assess ovarian reserve. Persistently raised FSH with persistent amenorrhoea indicate premature ovarian failure. Then, no medical or surgical treatment will give the desired outcome. These are candidates straight for donor egg IVF treatment. AMH can be done anytime of the menstrual cycle. Lab to lab variation may occur. Hence, low AMH may not mean low ovarian reserve. In my experience, patients with endometriosis with low AMH get pregnant with their own eggs with IVF even though fewer eggs are retrieved. The last indication is poor endometrium. If endometrium is not receptive and healthy, all treatment efforts will be futile. It is good practice to scan patients in a natural cycle and assess mid cycle endometrial thickness . In a cycle with ovulation induction there may be misdiagnosis of reduced endometrial thickness especially if the patient is on Clomiphene citrate. There are various medical and

Indications of IVF

The main indications of IVF are bilateral tubal damage, poor sperm count or quality, poor or absent ovarian reserve and poor endometrium. Bilateral tubal damage associated with a frozen pelvis diagnosed on laparoscopy is a clear cut indication for IVF. When bilateral tubal block is suspected on hysterosal pingography (HSG), there is a need to confirm it on laparoscopy. We need to clearly explain to the our patients that in most tubal factor infertility, tuboplasty may not give as high pregnancy rates as IVF and are also associated with a higher incidence of ectopic pregnancy. The next important indication is low sperm count and quality. According to latest studies, ICSI is indicated for patients with severe oligospermia (<10 million/ml), teratospermia (<4% abnormal morphology) and asthenospermia (<50% immotile). Intrauterine insemination (IUI) does not work in such couples. Semen analysis, maybe missed, especially with other associated factors like polycystic ovaries and endometriosis. It is important to judge the ovarian reserve before deciding on appropriate fertility treatment. Antral follicle count, Anti Mullerian Hormone (AMH) and

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

surgical remedies including Viagra, ecospirin and hysteroscopic adhesiolysis, if ineffective the options include stopping treatment, adoption or surrogacy. Another indication, occurring more frequently now than before given both members of the couple working, is when the husband and wife do not reside together for extended periods of time for instance when one of the two is In the defence services and frequent change in postings does not permit

regular timed intercourse. In this case, cryopreservation of sperms and embryos can easily help attain successful conception. Age of the lady and duration of subfertility and treatment are also important decision making factors. Fertility and IVF success reduce exponentially after the age of 35 years. The best results are in patients under 34 years of age. It is futile to for patients to go after cycles of ovulation induction. Women with polycystic ovaries, endometriosis and men with mild – moderate male factor should be referred for IVF if there are no results in 2-3 years of treatment.

cycle. The patient takes daily injections for about 10 days and comes two or three times during the stimulation for ultrasound monitoring. The ovum retrieval is done 36 hours after the lead follicle reaches 18 mm, under anaesthesia. Ultrasound guided embryo transfer without anaesthesia is done two or three days after ovum retrieval.

PRE – IVF work up

Explain Success Rates

This includes medical assessment, explanation of the treatment cycle, counselling and consent. Every couple goes through basic investigations including hormonal assessment, thalassemia and rubella status and viral serology screening for the couple. Semen analysis with culture should be done to decide whether ICSI needs to be done. A transvaginal ultrasound at the beginning of the cycle and around day 15 need to be done to assess the ovaries, uterus and adnexa. The initial scan will ensure that the endometrium is thin,check the antral follicle count and adnexa. The mid cycle scan relooks into the endometrium, check thickness and rule out polyps and small fibroids. The adnexa is important to evaluate. Hydrosalpinges and ovarian cysts can be assessed here. It is clearly established that communicating hydrosalpinges mandate removal or disconnection. This increases the pregnancy rates fourfold when IVF is done thereafter. Only large endometriomas require removal before IVF if they are causing obstruction during ovum retrieval. Removal of recurrent endometriomas is not required, as during cystectomy normal ovarian tissue may be sacrificed, in an already diminished ovarian reserve. Fibroids must be assessed before IVF. It is clear that submucous fibroids whatever the size need removal and subserous fibroids are best left untouched. Earlier, it was thought that intramural fibroids also need not be touched if not abutting into the cavity. However, it is now stated that in recurrent implantation failures with intramural fibroids more than 4 cm myomectomy must be done prior to another attempt. Hysteroscopy before IVF allows a thorough visualisation of the cavity and small polyps and fibroids can be removed. The washing and “scratching “ of the cavity during hysteroscopy and D&C is associated with higher pregnancy rates in a subsequent IVF cycle. In India, where tuberculosis is rampant, doing an endometrial TB PCR test during hysteroscopy is justified.

Explain Treatment Cycle

The couple should be explained the treatment cycle. We are using the antagonist protocol in most cases as this is patient friendly. Here, gonadotrophin stimulation starts on day 2 of the menstrual

DR. Kaberi Banerjee

MBBS (AIIMS), MD (AIIMS), MRCOG The writer is fellow in Reproductive Medicine and IVF, London.

Many couples think IVF is the final treatment whose outcome is a 100% success. However, even in the best of patients, the result is not more than 50% attempt. The cumulative result in 2-3 attempts is about 80%. It is to be explained clearly to the couple that not all women who have started stimulation may reach egg collection or have embryos transferred or a positive test. A small percentage of the positive tests may miscarry. Thus, patience and perseverance is the key in order to keep positive and attain success.

Myths and Concerns

Many consider IVF unnatural. However, for those with tubal block and low sperm count, this is the most natural way to have a baby with one’s own gametes. In concerns about gamete manipulation, it is the clinic’s responsibility to ensure that the patient’s own gametes are used. Donor gametes are never used without consent. Cross checking at every stage of gamete handling ensures that such errors do not occur. Many don’t go down this route assuming it is very expensive. Most IVF cycles cost between 1-1.5 lakhs/cycle including drugs. It is affordable for the middle class upwards. Another myth is that is the “end of the road”. If one cycle does not work, it is considered the ultimate failure. This is false. In many instances after IVF failure, couples conceive spontaneously. Another myth is that women who conceive via IVF are abnormal and their pregnancy will be unlike other pregnancies. This is also false. Like any pregnancy, to ensure (as far as possible from our end) a safe and secure pregnancy journey patients must take care of their health, diet and nutrition as well as rest. They must sleep 7-8hrs a day and try to get 1-2 hours of rest in the afternoons. People in special circumstances such as the defence personnel or those with husbands in the armed services who often need to change postings are also to take precautions with regards to travel, safety and regular check-ups. Initially once a month checkups are required, thereafter once in two weeks and towards the third trimester once a week. Proper folic acid /iron and calcium supplementation is necessary and two doses of tetanus toxoid are essential for maternal and fetal safety at the time of birth. Whether delivery will be by vaginal or caesarean route can only be decided at the time of labour.

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

March 2016

Defence AND security alert

get connected

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT The First and The Only ISO 9001:2008 Certified Defence and Security Magazine in India

February 20 16

VOLUME 7 ISSUE 4

January 2016

INDIAN ARMY

SENTINELS OF NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY

Subscribe Now! Tenure

Cover Price

discounted price

India

Shipping charges Delhi / NCR

rest of india

You Pay Delhi / NCR

Rest of india

1 year

` 1440

` 1008

` 400

` 700

` 1408

` 1708

2 years

` 2880

` 1872

` 800

` 1400

` 2672

` 3272

3 years

` 4320

` 2592

` 1200

` 2100

` 3792

` 4692

US$ 240 US$ 480 US$ 720

US$ 156 US$ 288 US$ 396

US DOLLARS US DOLLARS US DOLLARS

120 240 360

US DOLLARS 276 US DOLLARS 528 US DOLLARS 756

US$ 300 US$ 600 US$ 900

US$ 195 US$ 360 US$ 495

US DOLLARS US DOLLARS US DOLLARS

240 480 720

US DOLLARS 435 US DOLLARS 840 US DOLLARS 1215

Saarc Countries

1 year 2 years 3 years

Rest of the world

1 year 2 years 3 years

I would like to subscribe to DSA for I would like to gift a subscription of DSA for

1 Year

2 Years

3 Years

Name (Self )................................................................................................................................ Organisation ........................................................................ Billing Address................................................................................................................... City.......................................... Pin code ..................................... Shipping Address.............................................................................................................. ......................................City........................................................... State.........................................Pin code............................Tel.......................................................................Mob..................................................................... E mail id.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... DD / Cheque No...................................................................................................Dated.................................Drawn on....................................................... for ` ...................................................................................................................................................... in favour of OCEAN MEDIA PRIVATE LIMITED, Payable at New Delhi. Please add ` 50 extra for all outstation cheques.

Terms and Conditions

• Minimum subscription is for one year ie 12 issues. Your subscription will start with the next available issue after the receipt of your payment. DSA issues will be dispatched through Postal / Courier Services, as advised by the subscriber. • Please forward the completed subscription form with all the required details. DSA will not be responsible for any theft, loss or delay once the magazine has been dispatched. Please mention your subscription ID in all your future communications with us. • Please inform our subscription department about non-receipt of your copy latest by 20th day of the month, failing which the request for re-dispatch will not be entertained. • Subscription prices can also be viewed at the following web link http://www.dsalert.org/dsa-subscription/print-edition • Print and Online editions can be subscribed online through credit card via Payment Gateway. • The terms and conditions may change without any prior notice. This offer is for new subscribers, valid from 1st April 2013. • This subscription form supersedes all the previous. Please address all your subscription related queries through E-mail: subscription@dsalert.org or call us at: +91-11-23243999, 23287999. Write to us at: Subscription department, Defence and Security Alert (DSA), Prabhat Prakashan Tower, 4/19 Asaf Ali Road, New Delhi - 110002, INDIA.

For print edition login at: www.dsalert.org/dsa-subscription/print-edition For online edition login at: www.dsalert.org/dsa-subscription/online-edition

RNI NO. DELENG/2009/31195