the social fabric

sparsely concentrated built environments found no correlation between density and infection or mortality rates. Available data indicates that rather than density, the key determinants of rates of infection and mortality are unequal access to basic services, poverty and overcrowded living conditions, pre-existing health conditions and some forms of proximity jobs. As for the “cities are dying” narrative, trends show that people are indeed leaving big cities but for multiple reasons and with consequences that may well be positive. The outmigration from large cities that is impacting on real estate markets will over time render them more accessible and inclusive. The in-migration to small cities and towns will drive innovation, perhaps increasing prices but improving basic services and urban amenities. The result is likely to be a rebalancing, not demise, of urban areas within regions, particularly in developing country cities.

Competing narratives on COVID-19 and cities will continue to be a feature of the pandemic and its aftermath. They are likely not resolvable in our lifetimes. Moving forward, however, managing divergent perceptions of our collective urban future will be as important as urban policy and practice. This will involve re-examining assumptions about city form and function, looking critically at questions of proximity, accessibility, mobility, use of public space and the design of a more ecological city.

5.1.3. Pre-existing conditions and the deterioration of the social fabric

The first year of the pandemic has produced marked differences in how COVID-19 is experienced. Those in a position to do so have, as the saying goes, sought higher ground. They work from home while continuing to receive a pay slip assured of their next rent or mortgage payment. Home schooling poses challenges, but they have occupations and access to internet that provide options which, once instituted, prove workable. They have confined contact with the outside world to limited excursions in privatelyowned vehicles to food stores, pharmacies and lightly patronaged retail stores, or elect to order most of these services online delivered to their homes. They seek recreation in parks and other public spaces. They accept social distancing, wearing of face masks, repeated handwashing, lockdowns, curfews and travel restrictions, largely because adapting to these public health directives is possible.

Those not afforded the higher ground operate in significantly different circumstances. Many have lost their jobs or work away from their homes in occupations that put them in contact for long periods of time with others who they may or may not know, increasing risk of exposure to the virus. For them the threat of eviction is real and constant. Home schooling places their children’s education at odds with their ability to earn income. They commute each day, often using systems of transport that also put them in contact with others. Be it buses, trains or footpaths, they must find a way to gain access to essential services as few have the resources or formal accommodation to order online. Recreation is confined to commuting since they lack both time for and access to public space. Many recognize the importance of public health directives but find it difficult to adhere to them. Water may or may not be readily available. Social distancing is often not possible. Lockdowns, curfews and travel restrictions pose a direct threat to their livelihoods.

The two socio-economic worlds of COVID-19 are real and have long-term social and political consequences. The deterioration of the social fabric, however, extends well beyond class. The pandemic has been experienced differently by women as they navigate pressures to earn income, manage home schooling and care for family. Persons with limited mobility, immigrants, the elderly, the spatially segregated and minorities face unique challenges, even outright discrimination. The intersection of poverty and inequality informs our understanding of how the pandemic has profited and deepened historical divisions and created new vulnerabilities. Such knowledge