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Libya — Labor market assessment
8.1 Economic Growth Business owners are optimistic about the growth of the private sector, despite challenges identified; some sectors more so than others Overall, Libya’s economy is expected to bounce back in 2021 and grow by 76% in 2021 following -66.7% in 2020. The subsequent years are also forecasted to experience high growth up until 2024 where annual GDP growth is expected to settle at 0.3%.40 Business owners in the PS survey sample are also optimistic when it comes to growth for the following year and in three years’ time. When asked about their perceptions and estimates regarding the short-term growth of their business, business owners, on average, in the bestcase scenario, estimated their potential growth for the next year (2021) at 52%. On the other hand, in the worst-case scenario, they estimated their growth at a value of 21%. The general optimistic outlook was also highlighted by KIIs where some said in the right environment all sectors have potential to grow.
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I don’t think there is a sector that is not important or has less potential to grow.” Professor of Accounting, Tripoli
The private sector has potential to grow in all the fields in Libya, whether it is communication, oil services, health services.” Journalist, Tripoli
Survey respondents from the arts, entertainment and recreation sector gave the second highest average best-case scenario in terms of growth estimates (63% growth – second to education with 65% growth). Interestingly arts, entertainment and recreation are also the sectors with the second lowest worst-case scenario (18% growth on average – second worst to transportation). This suggests a fairly high degree of uncertainty with regards to this sector’s future performance, 40 I MF, Libya https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/LBY
