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Libya — Labor market assessment
8.2 Employment Growth Economic growth and employment growth are correlated in short-term estimates; longer term perceptions of growth may be more influenced by wider factors such as technological advancements In the short-term, economic growth expectations and expectations for employment growth are fairly strongly correlated (Pearson correlation of 0.479). In the medium-term, the relationship is less correlated (Pearson correlation of 0.228), suggesting that this growth to a large extent may be driven by technological or other advances in the value creation process. Business owners generally expect lower growth rates when it comes to employment compared to economic growth. When asked about their perceptions and estimates regarding the short-term growth of their business, business owners, on average, in the best-case scenario, estimated their potential growth for the next year at 28%. On the other hand, in the worst-case scenario, they estimated their growth at a value of 14%. Among the sectors with the most optimistic best-case scenarios is construction, which is also highlighted in the KII data as a sector with good employment potential:
“
Construction work is always requested in Kikla, and the workers are mostly Libyans due to the lack of migrants into the city.” Ministry of Labor, Kikla
Construction is also highlighted by 54% of the companies41 in the PSS sample as having a high potential to create jobs. The two other sectors in the top three most optimistic short-term employment growth scenario are education and accommodation and food services. However, education is among the sectors with the least optimistic worst-case scenario and also have a fairly high range of responses, suggesting some uncertainty around the sector’s likely employment
41 Disregarding companies from the same sector in the sample i.e. construction companies’ responses are not included in analysis of companies’ perception of the construction sector’s employment potential.
