Master Plan 18, 06212014 by Cleveland Bond Accountability Commission

Master Plan Update 18

Enrollment-based analysis of K-8 construction needs and District plans June 21, 2014 



  

A new enrollment forecast (Jan. 14, 2014) means that the Cleveland Metropolitan School District must make a 36 percent cut in its state-funded Facilities Master Plan (June 21, 2010) for remaining K-8 construction. The state, which pays for 68 percent of most CMSD construction, requires as a condition of co-funding that the District’s Master Plan conform to the latest enrollment forecast for the school year in which construction is expected to be completed, now 2018-19. Pages 3-4 The School District has published a series of Draft Scenarios that propose new construction as well as repairs and improvements and some school closures in 12 geographic clusters as defined by the District. The BAC has analyzed the Draft Scenarios as if every suggested new school were built. In all, the suggested K-8 construction would have a capacity of about 7,000 students. That figure is close to the K-8 student capacity of 6,787 that the OFCC will co-fund. Page 5 The BAC’s analysis of the Draft Scenarios, using enrollment projections for the 2019 target year based on trends for each cluster from 2008 through 2014, found that the proposals would result in significant excess new or like-new K-8 capacity in at least three clusters and a significant shortage of such capacity in at least three clusters. Analysis of each neighborhood’s enrollment trend is important for properly focusing construction dollars, because the trends vary markedly across the District. Pages 5-7 The BAC analysis is based on straight-line projection until 2018-19 of the average annual K-8 enrollment change since 2008 in each of 12 geographic clusters defined by the School District. The BAC analysis of changes needed in the co-funded Master Plan is based primarily on enrollment data because projected enrollment is the determinant of the state’s Master Plan co-funding maximums. School enrollment data and trends show where parents have chosen to send their children to school, thereby encompassing many other variables, including geographic accessibility, safety, academic offerings, competition from charter schools, etc. However, the methodology has certain limitations. Pages 8-10

BAC 2019 estimated analysis enrollment summary range Custer 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster 4 Cluster 5 Cluster 6 Cluster 7 Cluster 8 Cluster 9 Cluster 10 Cluster 11 Cluster 12

ď&#x201A;ˇ

3094-3213 2711-2791 2313-2351 1205-1272 16541677 1170-1264 2123-2252 1506-1552 840-858 1151-1258 1772-1795 1670-1698

Excess or (deficit) capacity provided by 2014 Scenario (582-701) (735-815) (513-551) 13-80 (704-727) 106-200 998-1127 908-954 92-110 1242-1349 600-623 435-463

Detailed analysis and charts for each 12 K-8 neighborhood cluster. Pages 11-26

New enrollment forecast The Cleveland Metropolitan School District’s construction program is guided by a Master Plan designed by the District with the Ohio Facilities Construction Commission, which pays for 68 percent of most Cleveland school construction costs. Bond Accountability Commission reports on the Master Plan have long been based on the idea that the construction roadmap should be based on probable enrollment – that is, to avoid wasting the public’s money, the District should not build or renovate more school space than will be needed to accommodate the number of students it will have when the construction program concludes. As a matter of policy, the OFCC agrees. That is why it has released a consultant’s new forecast of how many students the District will have in 2018-19, which for now is the nominal year in which the construction program will end. That forecast, one of a series dating back to 2002, predicts that the District will have 32,443 students in 2018-19. However, the District’s current Master Plan, devised in 2010 to conform to a 2009 forecast, would provide school space for 35,639 students. Therefore, the OFCC requires a reduction of 3,196 in the Master Plan’s student capacity as a condition for co-funding the remainder of the District’s program, now in Segments 5 and 6 of 10 segments. (Under the 2010 Plan, construction would conclude with Segment 9; Segment 10 would consist entirely of demolitions.)

Available co-funded construction space under enrollment forecast for 2018-19 Built or under way, Segments 1-5 Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 4 Segment 5 Totals

K-8 students 2437 3506 4101 4326 2251 16621

high school students 2967 1005 0 0 2610 6582

total students 5404 4511 4101 4326 4861 23203

OFCC consultant's draft forecast for 2018-19

23408

9035

32443

Available unbuilt co-funded space 6787

2453

9240

Currently planned co-funded space Master Plan of 2010 *

9793

1512

11305

Reduction of co-funded K-8 building plan Changes from 2010 Master Plan Further, the OFCC subdivides its co-funding allotment according to the number of students forecasted for grades K-8 and the number for grades 9-12. The latest forecast predicts more high school students than did the projection on which the 2010 Master Plan was based, but considerably fewer K-8 students.

Required * Allowed

cut 3006

cut 2065 add 941

* after cutting closed Giddings, deSauze K-8s

and the number for grades 9-12. The latest forecast predicts more high school students than did the projection on which the 2010 Master Plan was based, but considerably fewer K-8 students. The upshot is that the District must reduce its 2010 building plan by the school space to accommodate about 3,806 K-8 students, about 36 percent of the remaining K-8 construction planned under the Master Plan of 2010. However, two of the schools in that Plan have been closed, eliminating planned construction for a total of 800 students, which leaves the District with the task of reducing the Plan by space for 3,006 K-8 students. That is the equivalent of six to seven schools at the typical size,

18000 16000 14000 12000

Segment 5 Segment 4 Segment 3 Segment 2 Segment 1

10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 As-built K8 student capacity

Enrolled now

Elimination of schools from the Master Plan or reducing the planned size of schools in the co-funded Plan does not mean that the District cannot build that capacity into the system; it simply means that the state won’t help pay for it. The District may build whatever else it decides it can afford on its own. In other words, the District may devise an unofficial Master Plan that includes more projects – both new buildings and partial renovations – than are listed in the official Master Plan co-funded by the OFCC. Indeed, the BAC’s last report on the coming Master Plan revision concluded that, due to the amount of co-funded capacity consumed in previous construction in neighborhoods where enrollment has fallen below that capacity, cutting the official Master Plan by the required amount would leave other neighborhoods without the amount of new/fully renovated student space needed according to the BAC’s projections of likely enrollment.

Goal is to avoid waste From the standpoint of cost-effectiveness, the point is not simply to conform to the OFCC’s forecast, although that is required. Rather, the goal in comparing the Master Plan with the indications of enrollment trends is to avoid waste of taxpayer-financed construction bond proceeds that were authorized by voter approval of Issue 14 in May 2001 and those that may be authorized in future ballot issues. Construction of a typical co-funded elementary school now costs about $6 million in bond-issue money, on which taxpayers pay off principal and interest for about 20 years. Therefore, building a new school too large or where it is not needed is very wasteful, especially because taxpayers also will pay for maintenance, security, heating and cooling at that building for decades. And, as we have warned numerous times beginning with Master Plan Update 7 in June 2008, if only a finite amount of cofunded space is available district-wide, too much capacity in one neighborhood can only mean that another neighborhood will be underserved by state-matched construction dollars. It is therefore very important that construction be based on realistic, enrollment-based assessment of needs rather than expedience or wishful thinking. School District proposals The School District has published a series of Draft Scenarios that propose new construction as well as repairs and improvements and some school closures in 12 geographic clusters as defined by the District. The District on June 19 concluded a series of 14 “open houses” at which residents could express opinions about the suggestions in the Draft Scenarios. To date, the District has not issued a final proposal but it plans to ask the Board of Education on June 24 for authorization to proceed with a Master Plan revision. The BAC has analyzed the Draft Scenarios as if every suggested new school will be built, estimating the school capacity in some cases in which none was specified. In all, the suggested K-8 construction would have a capacity of about 7,000 students. That figure is close to the K-8 student capacity of 6,787 that the OFCC will co-fund. The BAC’s analysis of the Draft Scenarios, using enrollment projections for the 2019 target year based on trends for each cluster from 2008 through 2014, found that the proposals would result in significant excess K-8 capacity in the Lee-Miles, CentralKinsman-Mt. Pleasant, and Glenville-University-Hough clusters and to a lesser extent in the Downtown-St. Clair-Superior-Hough cluster. In five clusters, complete implementation of the Scenarios would result in new/like-new student capacity in 2019 that exceeds their current enrollment, despite long-term trends of declining enrollment.

Perhaps more important is that the construction suggested in the Scenarios would result in a significant shortage of new/like-new student capacity in the Kamm’s CornerBellaire-Puritas, Detroit-ShorewayCudell-Edgewater, and Old BrooklynBrooklyn Center clusters, and to a lesser extent in the Ohio City-Tremont cluster. In these clusters, new or likenew student capacity would range from 49 percent to 79 of current enrollment, even though the enrollment trends of these clusters are among the most stable in the District. The Draft Scenarios would leave the District with plenty of capacity to handle its expected enrollment as long as the older schools designated for only maintenance or improvements remain open. For students, the question will be which

Built and proposed K-8 construction capacity as percentage of current enrollment 140.00% 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00%

Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster 4 Cluster 5 Cluster 6 Cluster 7 Cluster 8 Cluster 9 Cluster 10 Cluster 11 Cluster 12

KEY: Cluster (1) Kamm’s Corner – Bellaire-Puritas (2) Detroit-Shoreway – Cudell – Edgewater – West Blvd. (3) Ohio City – Tremont (4) Clark-Fulton – Stockyards (5) Old Brooklyn – Brooklyn Center (6) Broadway – Slavic Village (7) Lee – Miles (8) Central – Kinsman – Mt. Pleasant (9) Buckeye – Shaker – Larchmere (10) Glenville – University – Fairfax (11) Downtown – St. Clair-Superior – Hough (12) Collinwood-Euclid

ones get to attend modern schools with the latest lighting, plumbing, heating and cooling, technology, etc. and which must attend older schools that have not been well maintained for years and will receive an unspecified amount of updates. The District has correctly noted that it cannot unbuild Issue 14 schools that, due to declining enrollment or misjudgment, are not filled to capacity. It is also true that while a given Cluster might have unused capacity in one area, another part of the Cluster might not have a nearby modern K-8school. The issue then becomes whether the District builds that additional co-funded school or devises another solution, such as within-cluster bus transportation, to make better use of the space already built.

And if excess capacity is indeed built in some Clusters, the question is whether residents of other Clusters will be content to have hundreds of their children attending less well-appointed schools. Outside the co-funded Plan, the District has proposed to maintain a number of schools that have not been replaced or fully renovated under the Issue 14 program and to improve or “refresh” many of those. The extent of the improvements is unspecified and a potential area of concern for residents of neighborhoods which have enrollment that would justify construction of new schools but which are not proposed to get them. Will the improvements bring modern plumbing, technology, lighting, heating and cooling, or does “refresh” mean a coat of paint, deep cleaning and some landscaping? Guided by the past When the construction program began in 2002, the state authorized construction or renovation of 111 schools to accommodate 72,000 students. Since then, Cleveland’s population has fallen about 18 percent and “community schools” (public charter/non-public schools), have grown to enroll 18,575 of the District’s children. CMSD enrollment in the coming school year is expected to be 37,417, according to the OFCC’s consultant. Population decline, growth of charter schools and loss of housing stock due to the foreclosure crisis have not had the same effect on every neighborhood, resulting in varying rates of falling enrollment. District construction decisions in the past have not appeared to take neighborhood enrollment trends into account, and this round of Master Plan revision is no different.

Cluster enrollment % change 2008-14, not adjusted for Scenarios 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00% -40.00% -50.00% -60.00%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Plan revision is no different. In support of its proposals to build more schools in some of the neighborhoods where enrollment has declined the most, the District has cited a desire to attract students from charter schools and to foster residential or commercial development. In clusters where enrollment has remained stable or even grown in recent years, the District has offered the observation that their residents tend to want to keep their old schools rather than have them replaced by new ones. Previous Master Plan revisions have met the target-year enrollment forecasts provided by the OFCC, but those district-wide forecasts are insufficient for informing the District’s decisions about where to build specific schools and how large to build them. The state’s forecasts are of little use in estimating construction needs at the neighborhood level. That is why the BAC uses past enrollment trends to predict short-term enrollment behavior. The goal is to focus scarce resources – in this case tax proceeds and the state’s cofunding allotment – where they are needed the most, thereby stopping or minimizing construction of K-8 space that will not be used as intended. The BAC analysis calculates the average annual rate of change in each neighborhood’s enrollment since 2008 and extends that rate of decline

through the next five years – to the nominal build-out year of 2018-19. This leads to a calculation of what a given neighborhood’s enrollment is likely to be that year. The probable enrollment is then compared with the space that would be provided by the Draft Scenarios. This straight-line projection is not perfect. For one thing, the method will project a result of zero or near-zero for any declining trend, given enough years. Intuition tells us this will not likely happen in any neighborhood. However, this projection is only for five years, until 2019, so that particular fault should not be a major factor. For another thing, reliance on a historic trend does not account for major demographic upheavals, examples ranging from war and weather catastrophes to severe economic recessions. If we had done our projections before the Great Recession and its foreclosure crisis, our extrapolations would have been too optimistic for many Cleveland neighborhoods, just like the state’s past projections were for the District as a whole. Nor is the method a good predictor of good fortune, such as a big surge in immigration or large new housing developments. A District consultant has asserted that the BAC’s current extrapolation is based mostly on the District’s enrollment experience during and since the Great Recession and therefore its prediction for the future is negatively skewed because such 9

an experience is not likely to be repeated. Indeed, the foreclosure rate in Cleveland has slowed since cresting in 2006-2009, but we should remember two things: One is that the crisis is not over; there reportedly were 4,774 foreclosure filings in Cleveland just last year and more than 1,800 through June 9 this year. But the major point is that very many of the tens of thousands of foreclosures in Cleveland over recent years have left the dwellings uninhabitable due to vandalism and general deterioration. Many homes have been demolished, and many more will be. So in a sense, the Recession years are a good predictor, lest we think that population – or enrollment – will rebound quickly from the economic downturn. The BAC’s analysis treats K-8 schools that have multi-neighborhood appeal, among them the boys and girls academies and Tremont Montessori, as if they draw only from the cluster in which they are located. To the extent that they draw from other neighborhoods, the BAC’s suggestions should be regarded with that in mind. Finally, the analysis cannot predict the effect of major academic initiatives that could increase enrollment. A current example is the District’s push to greatly expand Pre-K attendance district-wide. The success of this initiative cannot be assumed or quantified at this time. However, if successful we can say that it would tend to reduce over-capacity in clusters with underused new/like new buildings and increase under-capacity in clusters identified as already not being planned for as much new/like new space as is merited by enrollment trends. While the analysis method has limitations, school enrollment data and trends do show where parents have chosen to send their children to school, thereby encompassing many other variables, including geographic accessibility, safety, academic offerings, perceptions of safety, competition from charter schools, etc., as well as the foreclosure crisis. Looking forward Vision for accessibility, cost control. Whether or not the School District chooses to amend its Master Plan proposals to more equitably meet the needs of neighborhoods based on the BAC’s analysis of enrollment trends, the final decisions need to be made in the context of a larger vision of how to maintain or improve accessibility while controlling costs. After deciding which schools will be replaced or renovated with state co-funding, what is to be done with the numerous existing schools that are not part of the co-funded Master Plan? The District needs a larger, unofficial Master Plan that is more specific about what to do with these schools and about how to pay for it. Some could be replaced or renovated – partially or completely – using only local tax dollars. Some could be simply maintained, if the District is willing to commit enough money for real maintenance. Some could be closed and sold or demolished with state co-funding. Geographic accessibility – safe walking routes, reasonable walking distances – is generally not addressed by the BAC analysis. In areas where population density has decreased sharply, transportation solutions may provide the most economical way to make use of already built new-school capacity while minimizing capital and operational spending on more space – co-funded or not – that is or will be under-used.

Charter schools. Availability of high-performing charter schools could help the District decide whether to spend capital money on nearby CMSD schools. The BAC analysis did not consider availability of charter schools because the OFCC-funded Master Plan does not include them and because charters, unlike the School District, are not required to remain in operation. Growth areas. Finally, the vision for accessibility must include consideration of areas where population density has increased or is planned to increase because of housing development, including downtown, University Circle/Little Italy, Hough, Ohio City, Detroit-Shoreway. Planners need to assess how many of the residents of new developments are likely to have children that would attend a District school and whether the District has or could have schools to address such demand. Then the question becomes whether to spend tax dollars in anticipation of demand or to wait for demand to develop. By the numbers: Plan vs. need Methodology. This report therefore uses the average annual change in each neighborhood’s PreK-8 enrollment over the last six years to make a straight-line calculation of what the enrollment will likely be in the nominal build-out year of 2018-19. It then compares those estimates with the 2010 Master Plan’s provisions and any changes to that Plan suggested in the Draft Scenarios to see where the building plan for each of the 12 Clusters as defined by the District should be reduced or increased.

How to read the charts: Third-15th columns – The PreK-8 enrollment of each school, per CMSD, followed by the yearly percentage change. 16th column – The capacity, specified by the OFCC, of a new or fully renovated school in the Master Plan of 2010. Last column— Any changes to the Master Plan of 2010, as outlined in the District’s Draft Scenarios date June 17, 2014. Ave. annual survival factor: The average rate by which one year’s neighborhood enrollment has survived to the next year, based on CMSD data from 2008-2014. Projected enrollment in 2018-19: The number produced by multiplying the February 2014 enrollment by the average annual survival factor for each of the five following years. Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 (highlighted in red): The difference between the neighborhood Master Plan capacity and the projected enrollment – under the Master Plan of 2010 (next-to-last column) and under any changes outlined in the Draft Scenarios (last column). A (negative) number indicates that the Master Plan would not provide enough space for the specified number of expected students; a positive number indicates that the Master Plan would provide space for the specified number of students that are not expected to exist. Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted: The average rate by which one year’s neighborhood enrollment has survived to the next year, based on CMSD data from 2008-2014, except that the year of least change and the year of most change are omitted. Projected enrollment, adjusted: The number produced by multiplying the February 2014 enrollment by the adjusted average annual survival factor for each of the five following years.

Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted: The difference between the neighborhood Master Plan capacity and the adjusted projected enrollment. A (negative) number indicates that the Master Plan would not provide enough space for the specified number of expected students; a positive number indicates that the Master Plan would provide excess space.

Kamm's Bellaire Puritas (1) Ward Brooklawn Westropp MacArthur Garfield McKinley*

Address 4315 West 140th 11801 Worthington 19202 Puritas 4401 Valleyside 3800 West 140th 3349 West 125th 3575 West 130th 3690 West 159th 14601 Montrose 4550 West 150th 17200 Valleyview

Jan. 2008 enroll 428

Feb. 2009 enroll 449

Feb. 2010 enroll 505

Jan. 2011 enroll 470

Jan. 2012 enroll 508

Feb. 2013 enroll 527

Jan. 2014 enroll 491

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change 5%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change 12%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change -7%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 8%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 4%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change -7%

2010 Master Plan capacity 450

317 686

278 616

235 575

0 534

0 458

0 431

0 413

-12% -10%

-15% -7%

-100% -7%

NA -14%

NA -6%

NA -4%

0 540

96 160

165 153

196 387

228 440

271 537

296 541

309 509

72% -4%

19% 153%

16% 14%

19% 22%

9% 1%

4% -6%

0 426

NA -22% -12% 10%

NA -17% 0% -4%

NA 7% 3% 8%

0 0 436 450

3% -1%

8% -1%

-8% -1%

0 2302

Hawthorne 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA Baker 478 458 477 514 400 334 356 -4% 4% 8% Riverside 530 554 521 529 463 462 474 5% -6% 2% Jones 393 396 395 390 429 412 447 1% 0% -1% Valley View 98 134 151 191 196 212 196 37% 13% 26% Totals 3186 3203 3442 3296 3262 3215 3195 1% 7% -4% Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2019-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted * McKinley data shifted to Cluster 2 to reflect Scenario suggestion to send students to Wilbur Wright

Scenario change from 2010 plan

(540)

400

350 210

1.00110 3213 (911) 0.99360 3094 (792)

(701)

(582)

Kammâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Corner â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Bellaire-Puritas. The Master Plan of 2010 would have left this cluster 911 student slots short of needed space. The draft scenario would reduce the shortage to 582 to 701 slots. The shortage occurs largely because the District apparently wants to eliminate the Westropp replacement. No reason is given. The District also proposes to eliminate the McKinley replacement and 12

instead to gradually move McKinley students to Wilbur Wright, which is nearby but not in this cluster and is proposed for unspecified improvements but not replacement or full renovation. The analysis removes the McKinley enrollment from this cluster’s enrollment; if it were kept in this cluster, the deficit of needed new/fully renovated slots would be 901. This analysis assumes that a new Newton Baker is built for 400 students and a new Valley View is built for 350 students. Responding to community and parent concerns, the District has dropped a proposal to move the MacArthur Girls Leadership Academy to Brooklawn on W. 117th St., proposing instead to “a building-level planning process with families and stakeholders to identify creative and cost-effective methods to accommodate future growth of the Girls’ Leadership Academy.” The Scenario would give the Cluster new school space for 79 percent of its current K-8 enrollment, even though the Cluster, adjusted for Scenario suggestions, has gained students since 2008.

Jan. 2008 enroll 471

Feb. 2009 enroll 473

Feb. 2010 enroll 369

Jan. 2011 enroll 379

Jan. 2012 enroll 311

Feb. 2013 enroll 323

Jan. 2014 enroll 324

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change 0%

531 0 812 337 212

446 0 780 347 233

472 0 758 354 225

454 0 690 352 239

439 0 647 326 201

431 0 654 325 234

381 0 701 297 221

-16% NA -4% 3% 10%

6% NA -3% 2% -3%

-4% NA -9% -1% 6%

-3% NA -6% -7% -16%

-2% NA 1% 0% 16%

-12% NA 7% -9% -6%

450 0 720 0 226

(100)

641

590

588

534

485

454

413

-8%

-9%

-6%

-9%

423

(23)

550 448

564 487

500 462

379 419

380 338

336 320

267 301

3% 9%

-11% -5%

-24% -9%

0% -19%

-12% -5%

-21% -6%

650 0

(650) 550

McKinley * 340 308 283 308 277 275 265 -9% -8% 9% -10% Wright 632 607 623 573 487 481 398 -4% 3% -8% -15% Totals 4974 4835 4634 4327 3891 3833 3568 -3% -4% -7% -10% Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2019-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted * McKinley data shifted from Cluster 1 to reflect Scenario suggestion to send students to Wilbur Wright

-1% -1% -1%

-4% -17% -7%

450 720 4089 0.94657 2711 1378 0.95203 2791 1298

(450) (720) (2113)

Detroit _ Shoreway _ Cudell _ Edgewater (2) Almira Booker Halle Gallagher Agassiz Alcott Seltzer WattersonLake Waverly

Address 3380 West 98th 2121 West 67th 7901 Halle 6601 Franklin 3595 Bosworth 10308 Baltic 1468 West 98th

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -22%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 3%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change -18%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 4%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change 0%

2010 Master Plan capacity 450

Scenario change from 2010 plan

(720)

1422 West 74th 1810 West 54th 3349 West 125th 11005 Parkhurst

(735)

(815)

1. Detroit-Shoreway – Edgewater – Cudell – West Blvd. Compared with the old Master Plan of 2010, which would have provided almost 1,400 too many new and like-new seats in this neighborhood, the District Draft Scenarios would really take a whack out of this cluster, leaving it 735 to 815 seats short (treating McKinley as if it were in this cluster) of its projected need in 2019. The District suggests moving McKinley and other students to Wilbur Wright, but not replacing or fully renovating Wright, effectively accounting for all of the shortage. The District also suggests merging Waverly and Watterson-Lake, eliminating 100 slots from the 2010 plan, and dropping the planned replacement of Joseph Gallagher, eliminating 720 slots. The District suggests a replacement for Barbara Booker at an unspecified size, although it previously suggested 350 students, and Marion Seltzer at an unspecified size, although it previously suggested 400 students. The Scenario would give the Cluster new school space for 55 percent to 58 percent (depending on the size of Booker and Seltzer) of its current K-8 enrollment.  The District draft says: “The vision for schools in this cluster is to evenly locate schools throughout the cluster so that they can anchor the diverse residential neighborhoods. ... Because of this cluster’s high population density and significant number of young families, additional pre-K seats are needed to retain them.”

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change 1%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -26%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 0%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 6%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 4%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change 3%

2010 Master Plan capacity 350

Jan. 2008 enroll 443

Feb. 2009 enroll 447

Feb. 2010 enroll 333

Jan. 2011 enroll 332

Jan. 2012 enroll 351

Feb. 2013 enroll 365

Jan. 2014 enroll 376

0 0

0 167

0 232

0 245

0 256

NA NA

NA 39%

NA 6%

NA 4%

368 342 466

60 371 205 430

76 369 182 435

92 314 208 431

108 333 238 406

-9% -14% -2%

-31% 26% 4%

1% -40% -8%

-1% -11% 1%

-15% 14% -1%

6% 14% -6%

450 450 0

Tremont 456 470 507 522 575 603 567 3% 8% 3% Totals 2264 2172 2016 2087 2220 2258 2284 -4% -7% 4% Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2019-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted * Jefferson data shifted from Cluster 4 to reflect Scenario proposal to transfer students to Orchard ** Marin data moved to Cluster 4 to reflect Scenario suggestion to transfer students to Jefferson

10% 6%

5% 2%

-6% 1%

0 1250

Ohio City Tremont (3)

Buhrer Marin ** Kentucky Jefferson * TJ High School Orchard Dunbar Scranton

Address 1991 Barber 1701 Castle

3805 Terrett 3145 West 46th

4200 Bailey 2200 West 28th 1991 Barber 2409 West 10th

593 315 457

537 271 447

Scenario change from 2010 plan

550 550

1.00252 2313 (1063) 1.00580 2351 (1101)

(513)

(551)

2. Ohio City – Tremont The Scenario suggests moving the Newcomers Academy from Thomas Jefferson to the currently underused new Paul Dunbar and offers the option of building a new Tremont for 550. The draft suggests eventually moving Luis Munoz Marin students, currently numbering 639, to Jefferson, which also currently is greatly under-used. The Scenario would result in a shortage of 513 to 551 new or fully renovated seats in the cluster. The option given for Scranton, which currently has about 400 students, is simply to maintain it. The Scenario would give the Cluster new school space for about 55 percent of its current K-8 enrollment, even though the Cluster, adjusted for Scenario proposals, has gained students since 2008. Tremont Montessori is a truly city-wide draw school. Attendees at the District’s open house at Tremont Montessori expressed concern about the condition of the building’s interior and questioned whether the improvement option would be sufficient to provide a first-class environment. 15

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -6% NA -8% -3% -6%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change 5% NA -5% 5% 1%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change -6% NA 5% -10% -3%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 10% NA -12% -15% -7%

ClarkFulton Jan. Feb. Feb. Jan. Jan. Feb. Jan. Stockyards 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (4) Address enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll Clark 5550 Clark 595 560 587 551 608 611 592 Jefferson * 3145 West 46th 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Marin ** 1701 Castle 892 823 784 820 718 709 639 Walton 3409 Walton 592 572 603 544 460 352 311 Totals 2079 1955 1974 1915 1786 1672 1542 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2019-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted * Jefferson enrollment shifted to Cluster 3 to reflect Scenario suggestion to transfer students to Orchard ** Marin data moved from Cluster 3 to reflect Scenario suggestion to transfer students to Jefferson

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 0% NA -1% -23% -6%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change -3% NA -10% -12% -8%

2010 Master Plan capacity 540 785 540 450 2315

Scenario change from 2010 plan (40) (540) (450) (1030)

0.95187 1205 1110 0.96216 1272 1043

3. Clark-Fulton – Stockyards Implementation of scenarios to move Marin students to Jefferson and move the Newcomers Academy to the smaller and not fully used Dunbar would put the cluster on target for its need of new or fully renovated space. Geographic data provided by the District indicate that many, perhaps most, Marin students live closer to Jefferson than to their current school. The District proposes to replace Clark at an unspecified size, although it previously suggested 500 students.  The District’s draft says: “There are opportunities to create a ‘dynamic place’ on the southwest side of the City that builds a physical and virtual Hispanic Village. The vision for schools in this cluster is that they need to be located throughout the cluster and offer programs that appeal to young families.”

Old Brooklyn Brooklyn Jan. Feb. Feb. Jan. Jan. Feb. Jan. Center 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (5) Address enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll Franklin 1905 Spring 691 678 630 667 634 558 591 Mooney * 3213 Montclair 614 606 563 725 490 505 505 Denison 3799 West 33rd 707 712 712 617 634 571 484 Bryant 3121 Oak Park 502 449 424 350 370 389 417 Harper 5515 Ira 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Totals 2514 2445 2329 2359 2128 2023 1997 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2019-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted * Has additional 162 in Facing History New Tech 9-10th Grades

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -2% -1% 1% -11% NA -3%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -7% -7% 0% -6% NA -5%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 6% 29% -13% -17% NA 1%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change -5% -32% 3% 6% NA -10%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change -12% 3% -10% 5% NA -5%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change 6% 0% -15% 7% NA -1%

2010 Master Plan capacity 0 0 720 600 450 1770

Scenario change from 2010 plan

(220) (600) (820)

0.96298 1654 116 0.96573 1677 93

(704)

(727)

4. Old Brooklyn – Brooklyn Center Formerly known as the Rhodes neighborhood, the District’s Draft Scenario would leave the neighborhood about 704 to 727 slots short of its enrollment-based indication for new or fully renovated space. The Master Plan of 2010 would have been on target for this Cluster’s needs. The District’s latest Draft Scenario would replace Denison and the now-closed W.R. Harper at unspecified capacities, although it previously suggested 500 students and 450 students, respectively. Without explanation, the Scenario would also eliminate renovation of W.C. Bryant for 600 students, and it would leave the well-attended Benjamin Franklin as a school to be maintained. The District suggests closing Mooney and perhaps sending its high school students to Rhodes, which is already filled over its OFCC-rated capacity. The Scenario would provide new or like-new space for about 48 percent of the Cluster’s current enrollment, even though the Cluster’s enrollment is among the more stable in the District.  The District’s draft says: “There is an opportunity to construct a new 450-seat school [W.R. Harper] in the cluster at a location of a now closed school, as there is a high population of school-age and pre-school age children in the cluster. The schools in this cluster tend to draw mainly from families living in this cluster, and community activities at or near the schools are robust. ... The CMSD student capture rate is a modest 48%, so there is an opportunity to attract more students.” 17

Broadway Jan. Feb. Feb. Jan. Jan. Feb. Jan. - Slavic 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Village (6) Address enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll Hart 3901 East 74th 374 408 328 0 0 0 0 Fullerton 5920 Fullerton 374 398 367 401 316 309 297 Mound 5935 Ackley 317 248 235 253 499 485 417 Union 6701 Union 243 272 233 254 0 0 0 Willow 5004 Glazier 244 222 215 227 237 228 265 Warner 8315 Jeffries 128 197 264 302 354 350 395 Totals 1680 1745 1642 1437 1406 1372 1374 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2019-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change 9% 6% -22% 12% -9% 54%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -20% -8% -5% -14% -3% 34%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change -100% 9% 8% 9% 6% 14%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change NA -21% 97% -100% 4% 17%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change NA -2% -3% NA -4% -1%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change NA -4% -14% NA 16% 13%

2010 Master Plan capacity 0 0 450 0 350 570

-6%

-12%

-2%

1370

Scenario change from 2010 plan 350

(350) 0

0.96842 1170 200 0.98348 1264 106

200

106

5. Broadway – Slavic Village The latest Draft Scenario would add a new Fullerton of unspecified size, although the District previously suggested 350 students, and delete a new Willow for 350, leaving the planned capacity of the cluster on target for new/fully renovated space, with a projection of only 106 to 200 surplus slots.  The District’s draft says: “For the first time since the recession and onset of the foreclosure crisis, new housing and major housing rehabilitation projects are underway. The schools in this cluster serve a large school-age population. In general, these families choose to attend a school in the cluster. ... The CMSD student capture rate is 61% and other school-age youth are served by a combination of parochial K-8 and high school and public charter schools. There is an opportunity to launch aggressive expansion of Pre-K slots in order to create better prepared cohorts for CMSD kindergarten classes.”

Lee - Miles (7) Stevenson Dickens Eliot Miles Miles Park Hale

Address 18300 Woda 13013 Corlett 15700 Lotus 11918 Miles 4090 East 93rd 3588 MLK, Jr. 10706 Sandusky 4092 East 146th 17900 Harvard 13604 Christine 4747 East 176th 16200 Glendale

Jan. 2008 enroll 299 384 326 416 549 367

Feb. 2009 enroll 282 312 336 354 444 333

Feb. 2010 enroll 279 313 345 339 502 318

Jan. 2011 enroll 288 433 466 385 565 412

Jan. 2012 enroll 388 413 510 346 578 435

Feb. 2013 enroll 438 369 485 281 551 402

Jan. 2014 enroll 375 319 416 263 552 381

Revere 481 420 420 508 476 348 288 Jamison 586 522 463 442 438 417 432 Young (2-8) 182 165 124 208 184 171 147 Cranwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 deSauze 356 319 295 284 0 0 0 Gracemount 504 441 470 0 0 0 0 Woodland Hills 9201 Crane 394 347 293 348 0 0 0 Totals 4844 4275 4161 4339 3768 3462 3173 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2019-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -6% -19% 3% -15% -19% -9%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -1% 0% 3% -4% 13% -5%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 3% 38% 35% 14% 13% 30%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 35% -5% 9% -10% 2% 6%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 13% -11% -5% -19% -5% -8%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change -14% -14% -14% -6% 0% -5%

2010 Master Plan capacity 450 450 0 450 650 400

-13% -11% -9% NA -10% -13%

0% -11% -25% NA -8% 7%

21% -5% 68% NA -4% -100%

-6% -1% -12% NA -100% NA

-27% -5% -7% NA NA NA

-17% 4% -14% NA NA NA

350 450 0 0 0 0

-12% -12%

-16% -3%

19% 4%

-100% -13%

NA -8%

0 3200

Scenario change from 2010 plan

400

(350)

0.93373 2252 948 0.92280 2123 1077

998

1127

6. Lee-Miles The fully implemented Draft Scenario would leave Lee-Miles with 998 to 1,127 too many K-8 seats by the target year of 2019. CMSD has suggested eliminating a new Revere for 350, which is good because it has only 288 students, but adding a new Eliot, presumably for about 400 students, with a new J.F. Kennedy High and Whitney Young gifted program on a unified campus in Frederick Douglass Park. The Scenario would give the Cluster new school space for 102 percent of its current K-8 enrollment, although the Clusterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s enrollment has fallen sharply over recent years. Some attendees at the Cluster open house expressed frustration about not being able to find out whether a new Whitney Young would be built on the proposed campus or whether the program would be shifted into Eliot and JFK. They opposed the latter. .... The JFK 9th Grade 19



will be at Cranwood this year and next year (9th and 10th), as part of new academic programming, but the District’s Draft Scenarios do not mention what is to be done eventually with Cranwood. The District’s draft says: “School planning has been guided by the Ward 1 Comprehensive Master Plan completed in 2013. Concepts in the plan call for the schools to: help anchor residents in the neighborhood; attract new families to Ward 1; create a unified Pre-K – 12 Campus on the site of Frederick Douglass Park which will open up other District-owned land for redevelopment; ... create space for a new recreation center and the expansion of the Lee-Harvard Shopping Center; and expand Pre-K options to help create a pipeline of students ready for Kindergarten. This cluster has ... nine K-8 schools of which six were built new since 2006. Vision for the former Robert Jamison, Gracemount and Emile B. deSauze school sites is new housing. Current CMSD student capture rate is 60%. There is an opportunity to attract students back to the District from nearby charter schools.”

Central Kinsman - Mt. Jan. Feb. Feb. Jan. Jan. Feb. Jan. Pleasant 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (8) Address enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll Rickoff 3500 East 147th 604 572 544 504 540 513 515 Benesch 5393 Quincy 0 0 0 0 0 0 383 Grdina 2955 East 71st , 547 532 484 366 377 357 341 Audubon 3055 MLK, Jr. 496 443 326 0 0 0 0 Stokes 2225 East 40th 550 543 523 586 494 424 0 Dike 2501 East 61st 390 396 399 499 417 357 318 Carver 2200 E. 55th , 426 435 447 346 533 472 373 Sterling 3033 Central 538 530 506 533 499 374 366 Fulton 3291 East 140th 316 284 283 0 0 0 0 Totals 3867 3735 3512 2834 2860 2497 2296 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2019-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -5% NA -3% -11% -1% 2% 2% -1% -10% -3%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -5% NA -9% -26% -4% 1% 3% -5% 0% -6%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change -7% NA -24% -100% 12% 25% -23% 5% -100% -19%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 7% NA 3% NA -16% -16% 54% -6% NA 1%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change -5% NA -5% NA -14% -14% -11% -25% NA -13%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change 0% NA -4% NA -100% -11% -21% -2% NA -8%

2010 Master Plan capacity 720 0 540 0 0 0 450 490 0 2200

Scenario change from 2010 plan

350 (90) 260

0.91914 1506 694 0.92468 1552 648

954

908

7. Central – Kinsman – Mt. Pleasant. Instead of trimming this cluster, which had been on track under the 2010 Plan to have 694 too many seats, the District Draft Scenario suggests adding a new Dike, presumably for 350 students, leaving the Cluster with 908 to 954 too many new or fully renovated K-8 seats by the target year of 2019. The latest Draft Scenario calls for replacing Marion Sterling, presumably for 400 students. This Scenario would give the Cluster new school space for 107 percent of its current K-8 enrollment, although the Cluster’s enrollment has fallen sharply over recent years. However, it should be noted that this is a far-flung cluster, stretching from E. 30th St. to East 147th St., meaning that empty space built at one end cannot easily be accessed by students living at the other end.  The District draft says: “Three new schools were constructed since 2005, but others need to be replaced or renovated. ...There exist opportunities to build a new K-8 building in collaboration with the Cuyahoga Metropolitan Housing Authority (CMHA). A multi-block redevelopment plan developed by CMHA includes new subsidized and market-rate housing, a new library, expanded green space and parks. The District has a unique and timely opportunity to help refashion this plan by locating a school in its optimum location since site control is not an issue, and the District owns several large parcels in and adjacent to the plan area. The CMSD student capture rate for this cluster is 47%. There is an opportunity to improve educational offerings to attract returning CMSD students. An aggressive expansion of Pre-K seats in this cluster should be a priority.”

Jan. 2008 enroll 392

Feb. 2009 enroll 403

Feb. 2010 enroll 371

Jan. 2011 enroll 0

Jan. 2012 enroll 0

Feb. 2013 enroll 0

Jan. 2014 enroll 0

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change 3%

272 266

270 235

266 370

305 459

276 477

220 499

224 485

-1% -12%

-1% 57%

15% 24%

-10% 4%

-20% 5%

2% -3%

450 450

Sunbeam 244 210 209 256 257 251 261 Totals 1174 1118 1216 1020 1010 970 970 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2019-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

-14% -5%

0% 9%

22% -16%

0% -1%

-2% -4%

4% 0%

0 900 0.97156 840 60 0.97572 858 42

Buckeye Shaker Larchmere (9) Bell BuckeyeWoodland Rice

Address 11815 Larchmere 9511 Buckeye 2730 East 116th 11731 Mt.Overlook

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -8%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change -100%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change NA

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change NA

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change NA

2010 Master Plan capacity 0

Scenario change from 2010 plan 500 (450)

110

8. Buckeye – Shaker – Larchmere The District has abandoned the 2010 plan to build a new Buckeye-Woodland for 450 students, which is good because the school has only 224 students, but proposes to build a new school on the Skyline Campus of an unspecified size, although the District previously suggested 500 students. This Scenario would result in excess capacity of only 92 to 110 slots, making it on target for new/like-new space in 2019. Based on community reaction, the District apparently has dropped its proposal to move the medically-fragile program at Sunbeam to the site of the old Willson school on East 55th St.  The District draft says: “Civic leaders and several groups have come together to define a common vision for the residential, business and institutional districts of this cluster. A new school is a key investment that needs to be made as a part of a 20-acre redevelopment area near where CMSD operates a school, owns a closed building and a vacant former school site. The location of this cluster in one of the region's major job centers makes it a prime cluster to attract students to the District. Significant private, public and philanthropic funds have helped bring “bricks and mortar” investment to retail, housing, mixed, recreation, multi-modal transportation, infrastructure and institutional uses. The District’s investment would play a major role in linking these investments to residents.”

Feb. 2009 enroll

Feb. 2010 enroll

Jan. 2011 enroll

Jan. 2012 enroll

Feb. 2013 enroll

Jan. 2014 enroll

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change

343 369 338 324

299 369 282 360

281 336 231 499

304 436 0 613

0 394 0 552

0 318 0 468

0 312 0 426

-13% 0% -17% 11%

-6% -9% -18% 39%

8% -100% 30% -10% -100% NA 23% -10%

402 328 383

360 307 329

259 292 346

0 284 366

0 0 423

0 0 372

0 0 333

-10% -6% -14%

-28% -5% 5%

-100% -3% 6%

NA -100% 16%

NA NA -12%

NA NA -10%

0 0 0

Landis 398 360 350 0 0 0 0 Lake 274 213 0 0 0 0 0 Bethune 361 348 362 388 337 348 338 White 390 349 322 462 437 380 326 Henry 385 334 334 347 378 371 351 Totals 4295 3910 3612 3200 2521 2257 2086 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2019-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted * FDR capacity reduced from OSFC-designated 1,115 to 850 to reflect use of part of school by Boys and Girls Clubs

-10% -22% -4% -11% -13% -9%

-3% -100% 4% -8% 0% -8%

-100% NA 7% 43% 4% -11%

NA NA -13% -5% 9% -21%

NA NA 3% -13% -2% -10%

NA NA -3% -14% -5% -8%

0 0 500 0 450 1800 0.88790 1151 649 0.90384 1258 542

Glenville University Fairfax (10) Roth Bolton Empire Roosevelt * Forest Hills Parkway Giddings Iowa Maple

Address 12523 Woodside 9803 Quebec 9113 Parmalee 800 Linn 450 East 112th 2250 East 71st 12510 Maple 10118 Hampden 9201 Hillock 11815 Moulton 1000 East 92nd 11901 Durant

Jan. 2008 enroll

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change

NA -19% NA -15%

NA -2% NA -9%

0 0 850

2010 Master Plan capacity

Scenario change from 2010 plan

0 350

350

700

1349

1242

9. Glenville â&#x20AC;&#x201C; University â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Fairfax Instead of trimming this cluster, which had been on track under the 2010 Plan to have 649 too many seats, the District Draft Scenario suggests adding 700 more seats, for an excess capacity of 1,242 to 1,349 new/fully renovated student slots by the target year of 2019. Under the latest Draft Scenario, Iowa-Maple and Bolton would each be replaced at unspecified sizes, although the District previously suggested 350 students each. The main problem with planning 23



for this cluster continues to be F.D. Roosevelt, which was fully renovated for 1,115 students (reduced to 850 by use of part of the school for Boys and Girls Clubs) but has only 426. The Scenario includes no suggestion for making more use of FDR. The Scenario would give the Cluster new or fully renovated school space for 120 percent of its current K-8 enrollment, although the Cluster’s enrollment has fallen sharply over recent years. The District’s draft says: “In each of the neighborhoods there are comprehensive development plans that seek to brand the neighborhoods in different ways. The schools are a part of that brand. The extensive footprint of District-sponsored Charters in this cluster is an opportunity to promote quality school choice much more widely and more intentionally to families.”

Downtown - St. ClairSuperior Hough (11) Case International Orr

Address 4050 Superior CSU/Health Careers 9711 Lamont 8912 Morris Court 1601 East 85th 5901 Whittier 1800 East 63rd 8200 Brookline 7600 Wade Park 1126 Ansel

Jan. 2008 enroll 536

Feb. 2009 enroll 447

Feb. 2010 enroll 369

Jan. 2011 enroll 451

Jan. 2012 enroll 381

Feb. 2013 enroll 396

Jan. 2014 enroll 347

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -17%

191

157

177

113 173

213 0

309 0

370 0

-18%

13%

-2%

-9% -13% -2% 1% 22% -20% NA -8%

-13% -13% -11% -54% -19% 100% NA -7%

-7% -100% -100% -28% -6% 2% NA -2%

Morgan 481 438 380 354 353 313 317 Raper 468 405 352 0 0 0 0 Rockefeller 250 246 220 0 0 0 0 Ireland 169 171 79 57 0 0 0 443 407 Martin 342 416 336 316 479 Wade Park 242 194 388 396 413 379 351 Willson 0 0 0 393 399 380 344 Totals 2679 2474 2301 2253 2238 2220 2136 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2019-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -17%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 22%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change -16%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 4%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change -12%

-11% NA NA NA -8% -8% -5% -1%

1% NA NA NA -8% -7% -9% -4%

0% NA NA -100% 52% 4% 2% -1%

2010 Master Plan capacity 450

Scenario change from 2010 plan (100)

0 480 0 0 0 490 501 574 2495 0.96336 1772 723 0.96583 1795 700

(100)

623

600

10. Downtown – St. Clair-Superior - Hough A new Case, presumably for 350 students, is suggested for the site of the former Willson on East 55th St, which would put the neighborhood’s excess capacity of new/fully renovated space at 600 to 623 slots 24



of expected need in the target year of 2019. However, it should be noted that Campus International is a truly city-wide-draw elementary school (for which there is a list of students waiting to be admitted) that will be adding three more grades in the next three years. The District proposed to house the Campus International K-8 enrollment at Cleveland State University and the United Methodist Church at East 30th Street and Euclid Avenue. However, based on opposition by a Campus International parents’ group that reportedly would like the school to have its own building, the District is apparently reconsidering this idea. Removing the Campus International enrollment from the Cluster calculations would only increase the over-capacity predicted for 2019. The problem is that none of the District’s four schools already built or renovated in the cluster (Willson, Wade Park, D. Morgan, Martin) is being used to capacity. The current Scenario would give the Cluster new or fully renovated school space for 112 percent of its current K-8 enrollment. However, it should be noted that Case is in a portion of the Cluster not readily served by any other District school, except perhaps Campus International. The District’s draft says: “There exists an opportunity for the District to invest strategically in these ‘up and coming neighborhoods’ just east of downtown. The cluster's proximity to downtown and Lake Erie makes it attractive for young professionals and young families who desire urban living. The presence of quality schools will help with economic development and the continued population growth of this cluster.”

Collinwood Jan. Feb. Feb. Jan. Jan. Feb. Jan. - Euclid 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (12) Address enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll East Clark 885 East 146th 277 249 230 394 409 336 331 Euclid Park 17914 Euclid , 277 249 230 334 357 343 372 Gibbons 1401 Larchmont 267 269 251 260 313 313 281 Longfellow 650 East 140th 347 250 240 0 0 0 0 Clement 14311 Woodworth 125 153 188 187 194 173 180 Memorial 410 East 152nd 504 513 493 513 506 451 447 Perry 18400 Schenely 389 443 416 417 333 309 273 Totals 2186 2126 2048 2105 2112 1925 1884 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2019-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted

Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -10% -10% 1% -28% 22% 2% 14% -3%

Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -8% -8% -7% -4% 23% -4% -6% -4%

Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 71% 45% 4% -100% -1% 4% 0% 3%

Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 4% 7% 20% NA 4% -1% -20% 0%

Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change -18% -4% 0% NA -11% -11% -7% -9%

Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change -1% 8% -10% NA 4% -1% -12% -2%

2010 Master Plan capacity 450 351 351 0 0 631 0 1783 0.97620 1670 113 0.97947 1698 85

Scenario change from 2010 plan

11. Collinwood – Euclid The only change for this cluster, which already has four new schools, is the suggested addition of a new O.H. Perry at an unspecified size, although the District previously suggested 350 students, which would give the cluster excess capacity of 435 to 463 students. Perry lies in the only part of the cluster not currently served by a new or fully renovated school. The Scenario would give the Cluster new or fully renovated school space for 113 percent of its current K-8 enrollment. Based on comments at the Cluster open house, a thorough but partial renovation of Perry may be acceptable.  The District’s draft says: “A neighborhood renaissance is underway in this traditionally working class neighborhood. Young professionals and small businesses are moving to this cluster to be close to Lake Erie, highways, job centers and affordable housing. ... The CMSD student capture rate is only 45% so there are opportunities to increase this.”

350 350

463

435