Master Plan Update 19
Enrollment-based analysis of K-8 construction needs and District plans March 23, 2015 The Cleveland school construction program as envisioned in the Master Plan of 2002 held promise that almost all (111) of the city's public schools would be replaced with new ones or fully renovated to like-new condition, with the Ohio School Facilities Commission paying 68 percent of most of the cost. Steep enrollment decline since then has required that the Plan co-funded by the state be reduced several times. The proposed Master Plan of 2015 calls for 65 new or like-new schools of which 43 are completed or nearly so. In deciding whether to proceed with the proposed plan, the question is not whether all students in the Cleveland Metropolitan School District will have a place in which to attend class. The District has plenty of schools to accommodate its enrollment, and 11 schools outside the new or like-new proposal are planned for significant repairs and improvements. Rather, the question is whether the proposed plan focuses the District's limited resources and the limited pool of state co-funding where it is needed most. This report is based on the premise that in order to maximize the effectiveness of these scarce resources and to avoid wasting them, the District should seek to avoid planning for more new or like-new construction in areas that already have enough to accommodate their enrollment and have a history of significant enrollment decline. Building schools that are not likely to be used to capacity poses a strong risk of wasting precious construction dollars as well as the operational dollars that will be required to maintain, heat and cool unused space for decades to come. The report draws attention to parts of the Plan that appear contrary to enrollment-based need. There are factors other than enrollment, such as geographic accessibility, that must also be taken into account, but in cases in which the Plan does not appear to be justified by enrollment needs, fiscal prudence requires that a clear and convincing case be made before proceeding with construction.
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CMSD's proposal for construction through 2019 calls for 19 K-8 schools and 3 high schools. Page 3 The proposal provides for constructing space for 835 K-8 students that would not be co-funded by the state, as most of the schools are, but would be financed only by local taxpayers as well as for locally funded improvements at other schools. Page 4 The BAC uses neighborhood enrollment trends to estimate future construction needs. The goal is to focus scarce resources where they are needed the most, minimizing construction of K-8 space that will not be used as intended. Page 5 The BAC's analysis found that the Administration's proposal for K-8 construction would result in significant excess new and like-new K-8 capacity in the Glenville-University-Hough cluster. A lesser degree of overcapacity is indicated for the LeeMiles and Collinwood-Euclid clusters. Page 6 The District has noted that it cannot unbuild new schools that, due to declining enrollment or misjudgment, are not filled to capacity. It is also true that while a neighborhood cluster might have unused capacity in one area, another part of the cluster might not have a nearby modern school. The issue becomes whether the District builds that additional school or can devise another solution to make better use of the space already built. Page 7 A discussion of the BAC's methodology. Pages 8-9 Detailed analysis and charts for each K-8 neighborhood cluster. Pages 10-22
BAC analysis 2019 estimated summary enrollment range Custer 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluser 4 Cluster 5 Cluster 6 Cluster 7 Cluster 8 Cluster 9 Cluster 10 Cluster 11 Cluster 12
3121-3180 2951-2977 2337-2355 1585-1615 1539-1541 1070-1076 2347-2412 1577-1619 918-943 1302-1360 2026-2049 1517-1521
Surplus of new/like-new space provided by state-co-funded proposed Master Plan, plus space added by local-only $
(Deficit) of new/like-new space provided by state-co-funded proposed Master Plan, plus space added by local-only $ (609-668) (1125-1151) (587-605) (200-230) (789-791)
294-300 788-853 441-483 (118-143) 1490-1548 1066-1089 612-616 2
New Master Plan proposal The Cleveland Metropolitan School District has unveiled its Master Plan proposal, which if approved will guide school construction through 2019. The proposal calls for 19 K-8 schools and 3 high schools in construction Segments 6 through 9. The proposal, made public at a Board of Education meeting on Feb. 24, is a revision of a Master Plan devised in 2010 by the District Administration and the staff of the Ohio Facilities Construction Commission (OFCC). The OFCC, which pays for 68 percent of most of the District's construction costs, required this revision in order for Cleveland's plan to conform with a state-commissioned enrollment forecast for the final, or "build-out," year of the construction program, currently envisioned as 2019. As a matter of policy, the OFCC does not want to pay for more space than the District will need to accommodate all of its students in new or fully renovated schools. Therefore the OFCC has periodically commissioned an enrollment forecast for the Cleveland District, which began its construction program in 2002. As the build-out year has been pushed further into the future and the District has lost total enrollment (about 885 in the last year), the state's forecasts have required the District to trim its Master Plan. That is what is happening now. The 2010 Master Plan was based on a 2009 forecast that the District would have 35,639 students in the build-out year. But the state's 2014 forecast predicts 32,443 students in the build-out year. For K-8 building capacity, that means a cut of space for 3,806 students from the 2010 Plan. The current proposal for the 2015 Master Plan co-funded by the state meets that requirement.
Available co-funded construction space under enrollment forecast for 2018-19 Built or under way, Segments 1-5 Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 4 Segment 5 Totals
K-8 students 2437 3506 4101 4326 2253 16623
high school students 2967 1005 0 0 2610 6582
total students 5404 4511 4101 4326 4863 23205
OFCC consultant's draft forecast for 2018-19
23408
9035
32443
Available unbuilt co-funded space 6785
2453
9238
Currently planned new co-funded space *2015 Master Plan
6785
2353
9138
* proposed
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(The forecast predicts more high school students than did the projection on which the 2010 Master Plan was based, but considerably fewer K-8 students.) Elimination of schools from the Master Plan or reducing the planned size of schools in the co-funded Plan does not mean that the District cannot build that capacity into the system; it simply means that the state won’t help pay for it. The District may build whatever else it decides it can afford on its own. In other words, the District may devise an unofficial Master Plan that includes more projects – both new buildings and partial renovations – than are listed in the official Master Plan co-funded by the OFCC.
18000 16000 14000 Segment 5
12000
Segment 4
10000
Segment 3
8000
Segment 2
6000
Segment 1
4000 2000 0 As-built K-8 student capacity
Enrolled now
The BAC’s Master Plan Update 17 concluded that, because of the amount of co-funded capacity consumed in previous construction (Segments 1-5) in neighborhoods where enrollment has since fallen below that capacity, cutting the official Master Plan by the required amount would leave other neighborhoods without the amount of new or fully renovated space needed according to the BAC’s own projections of likely enrollment. The District's current proposal partially addresses that concern by providing for construction of space -- enough for 835 K-8 students -- that would not be co-funded by the OFCC but would be financed only by local taxpayers. The proposal also calls for repairs and improvements of as-yet-undisclosed scope at existing schools that are not included in the Plan co-funded by the state. I
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Goal is to avoid waste The goal of comparing the Master Plan, including locally financed add-ons, with the indications of enrollment trends is not only to comply with OFCC requirements but also to avoid waste of taxpayer-financed construction bond proceeds that were authorized by voter approval of Issue 14 in May 2001 and Issue 4 in November 2014. Construction of a 450-student elementary school costs about $6 million in bond-issue money, on which taxpayers pay off principal and interest for as many as 37 years. Therefore, building a new school too large or where it is not needed is very wasteful, especially because taxpayers also will pay for maintenance, security, heating and cooling at that building for decades. As BAC reports have warned numerous times beginning with Master Plan Update 7 in June 2008, if only a finite amount of co-funded space is available district-wide, building too much capacity in one neighborhood can only mean that another neighborhood will be underserved by state-matched construction dollars. Previous Master Plan revisions have met the target-year enrollment forecasts provided by the OFCC, but those district-wide forecasts are insufficient for informing the District’s decisions about where to build specific schools and how large to build them. That is why the BAC uses past, neighborhood by neighborhood enrollment trends to predict short-term future enrollment and therefore construction needs. The goal is to focus scarce resources – in this case locally financed bond proceeds and the state’s cofunding allotment – where they are needed the most, thereby stopping or minimizing construction of K-8 space that will not be used as intended. This report analyzes the District's current proposal, which may be amended based on ongoing community-engagement meetings. It should also be noted that a Master Plan is not an iron-clad document; it can be changed as needed, as can CMSD-OFCC Project Agreements for each construction segment. However, changing a Project Agreement after school-design and projectmanagement contracts have been awarded wastes taxpayer money on so-called sunk costs. The Project Agreement for Segment 7 of the District program is pending before the Board of Education, with a vote expected on March 26. Neighborhood cluster analysis The District Administration's proposal is based on 12 clusters of neighborhoods. Last spring, the District held a series of 14 “open houses” at which residents could express opinions about the suggestions in its preliminary "Draft Scenarios" for each cluster. On June 24, the Board of Education a revised set of Scenarios. Another round of open houses is being held now, based on the moredetailed proposal presented to the Board on February 24.
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The BAC's analysis of the Administration's proposal for K-8 construction, using enrollment projections for the 2018-19 target year based on trends for each cluster from January 2008 to February 2015, found that the proposals would result in significant excess K-8 capacity in the Glenville-University-Hough cluster. A lesser degree of overcapacity is indicated for the Lee-Miles and Collinwood-Euclid clusters. Meanwhile, the analysis finds a significant shortage of new/like-new student capacity planned for the Detroit Shoreway-Cudell-Edgewater and Old Brooklyn-Brooklyn Center clusters. A lesser lack of capacity is indicated for the Kamm's Corner-Bellaire Puritas and Ohio City-Tremont clusters. As the chart at right shows, five clusters are being planned for more enrollment than they have now, even though each of these clusters has a history of enrollment decline (see chart on next page). In contrast, planned new or fully renovated capacity is less than current enrollment in several clusters. In particular, Old Brooklyn-Brooklyn Center new/like new capacity is proposed for about 40 percent of current enrollment. New/like new capacity in Kamm's Corner-Bellaire Puritas, where enrollment has not changed since 2008, is being planned for 80 percent of current enrollment. These statistics do not of themselves mean that the District's plan should be changed, but they suggest areas for further review. More detailed analysis, including anomalies that may skew the data, follow in this report.
Built and proposed K-8 construction capacity as percentage of current enrollment, adjusted for non-OFCC extra space * 160.00% 140.00% 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00%
Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster 4 Cluster 5 Cluster 6 Cluster 7 Cluster 8 Cluster 9 Cluster 10 Cluster 11 Cluster 12
KEY: Cluster (1) Kamm’s Corner – Bellaire-Puritas (2) Detroit-Shoreway – Cudell – Edgewater – West Blvd. (3) Ohio City – Tremont (4) Clark-Fulton – Stockyards (5) Old Brooklyn – Brooklyn Center (6) Broadway – Slavic Village (7) Lee – Miles (8) Central – Kinsman – Mt. Pleasant (9) Buckeye – Shaker – Larchmere (10) Glenville – University – Fairfax (11) Downtown – St. Clair-Superior – Hough (12) Collinwood-Euclid
*NOTE: Cluster 11 data skewed by inclusion of city-wide Campus International K-8 for 720 students downtown 6
As it stands, the pending proposal would leave the District with plenty of capacity to handle its expected enrollment as long as the older schools designated for only maintenance or improvements remain open. For students, the ultimate question will be which ones attend modern schools with the latest lighting, plumbing, heating and cooling, technology, etc. and which must attend older schools that have not been well maintained but will receive as-yet unspecified improvements. The District cannot unbuild schools that, due to declining enrollment or misjudgment, are not filled to capacity. And while a Cluster might have unused capacity in one area, another part of the Cluster might not have a nearby modern K-8. The issue becomes whether the District builds another co-funded school or can find a way to better use the space already built. Guided by the past When the construction program began, the state authorized construction or full renovation of 111 schools to accommodate 72,000 students. Since, the city’s population has fallen about 18 percent and “community schools” (public charter/non-public schools), have grown to enroll more than 18,000 of the District’s children.
Cluster enrollment % change 2008-15 * 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00% -40.00% -50.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-60.00% -70.00% KEY: Cluster (1) Kamm’s Corner – Bellaire-Puritas (2) Detroit-Shoreway – Cudell – Edgewater – West Blvd. (3) Ohio City – Tremont (4) Clark-Fulton – Stockyards (5) Old Brooklyn – Brooklyn Center (6) Broadway – Slavic Village (7) Lee – Miles (8) Central – Kinsman – Mt. Pleasant (9) Buckeye – Shaker – Larchmere (10) Glenville – University – Fairfax (11) Downtown – St. Clair-Superior – Hough (12) Collinwood-Euclid
*NOTES: Cluster 4 data skewed from decline to growth by inclusion of city-wide Newcomers Academy. Cluster 1 bar not visible because enrollment has not changed.
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Population decline, growth of charter schools and loss of housing stock due to the foreclosure crisis have not had the same effect on every neighborhood, resulting in varying rates of falling enrollment. District construction decisions in the past have not appeared to take neighborhood enrollment trends into account. In support of its proposals to build more schools in some of the neighborhoods where enrollment has declined the most, the District Administration has cited a desire to attract students from charter schools and to foster residential or commercial development. In clusters where enrollment has remained stable or even grown in recent years, the District has offered the observation that their residents tend to want to keep their old schools, such as Benjamin Franklin in the Old Brooklyn-Brooklyn cluster, rather than have them replaced by new ones. The BAC analysis calculates the average annual rate of change in each neighborhood’s enrollment since 2008 and extends that rate of decline through the next four years – to the nominal build-out year of 2018-19. This leads to a calculation of what a given neighborhood’s enrollment is likely to be that year. The probable enrollment is then compared with the space that would be provided by the Master Plan proposal, including the proposed extra space not co-funded by the OFCC. The BAC's current projections of enrollment trends from 2008 to 2015 result in a prediction for about 800 fewer PreK-8 students in 2019-19 than estimated by the OFCC's forecast, which was released in January 2014, a difference of about 3.4 percent. This straight-line projection is not perfect. For one thing, the method will project a result of zero or near-zero for any declining trend, given enough years. Intuition tells us this will not likely happen in any neighborhood. However, the current is for only four years, until 1018-19, so that particular fault should not be a major factor. Also, reliance on a historic trend does not account for major demographic upheavals that might occur in the future. If the BAC had made its projections before the Great Recession and its foreclosure crisis, the enrollment-trend extrapolations would have been too optimistic for many Cleveland neighborhoods, just like the state’s past projections were for the District as a whole. Nor is the method a predictor of good fortune, such as a big surge in immigration or large new housing developments. It has been noted that the years on which the BAC bases its analysis include the worst of the foreclosure crisis and therefore the enrollment forecasts might give undue weight to a one-time occurrence. However, the crisis continues in the sense that the tens of thousands of foreclosures in Cleveland over recent years have left dwellings uninhabitable due to vandalism and deterioration. Many homes have been demolished, and many more will be. So the Great Recession years may in fact be a good predictor until such time as redevelopment creates new housing units. Finally, there is the issue of K-8 schools that draw their students from multiple neighborhoods. A couple have truly city-wide appeal.
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The BAC’s analysis treats K-8 schools that have multineighborhood appeal, among them the boys and girls academies, Tremont Montessori, and the downtown Campus International school, as if they draw only from the cluster in which they are located. To the extent that they draw from other neighborhoods, the BAC report’s suggestions should be regarded with that in mind. Finally, the analysis cannot predict the effect of major academic initiatives that could increase enrollment. One example is the District’s push to greatly expand Pre-K attendance district-wide. The success of this initiative cannot be assumed or quantified at this time. However, if successful we can say that it would tend to reduce overcapacity in clusters with underused new/like new buildings and increase under-capacity in clusters identified as already not being planned for as much new or like- new space as is merited by enrollment trends. While the analysis method has limitations, school enrollment data and trends do show where parents have chosen to send their children to school, thereby encompassing many other variables, including geographic accessibility, safety, academic offerings, perceptions of safety, competition from charter schools, etc., as well as the foreclosure crisis. 9
Looking forward A viable Master Plan is part of a larger vision of how to maintain or improve accessibility while controlling costs. Such a vision includes consideration of areas where population density has increased or is planned to increase because of housing development. Geographic accessibility – safe walking routes, reasonable walking distances – is generally not addressed by the BAC analysis. In areas where population density has decreased sharply, transportation solutions may provide the most economical way to make use of already built new-school capacity while minimizing capital and operational spending on more space – co-funded or not – that is or will be under-used.
How to read the charts: This report uses the average annual change in each neighborhood cluster’s PreK-8 enrollment, 2008 through 2015, to make a straight-line calculation of what the enrollment would be in the nominal build-out year of 2018-19. It then compares those estimates with the 2015 Master Plan proposal for each of the 12 neighborhood clusters. Third-15th columns – The PreK-8 enrollment of each school, per CMSD, followed by the yearly percentage change. 16th column – The capacity of an OFCC-funded new or fully renovated school in the proposed Master Plan of 2015. Last column— The 2015 Master Plan proposal for all OSFC-funded schools. N = new school; R=fully renovated; D=demolish. Followed by the Segment number. Segment 10 is a pro forma reserve for demolitions only. Keep means the District plans to maintain or improve the school without OFCC money. Ave. annual survival factor: The rate by which one year’s neighborhood enrollment has survived to the next year since 2008. Projected enrollment in 2018-19: The number produced by multiplying the February 2015 enrollment by the average annual survival factor for each of the four following years. Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 (highlighted in red): The difference between the cluster's proposed Master Plan capacity -- plus any added new space not co-funded by the OFCC -- and the projected enrollment. A (negative) number indicates that the Master Plan would not provide enough space for the specified number of expected students; a positive number indicates that the Master Plan would provide space for the specified number of students that are not expected to exist. Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted: The rate by which one year’s neighborhood enrollment has survived to the next year since 2008, except that the year of greatest gain/least loss and the year of least gain/greatest loss are omitted. Projected enrollment, adjusted: The number produced by multiplying the February 2015 enrollment by the adjusted average annual survival factor for each of the four following years. Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted: The difference between the cluster's proposed Master Plan capacity -- plus any added new space not co-funded by the OFCC -- and the adjusted projected enrollment. A (negative) number indicates that the Master Plan would not provide enough space for the specified number of expected students; a positive number indicates that the Master Plan would provide excess space.
10
Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change -7%
Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 8%
Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 4%
Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change -7%
Jan. 2014Feb. 2015 % change -4%
2015 Master Plan capacity 450
Brooklawn 317 278 235 0 0 0 0 0 -12% -15% -100% Westropp 686 616 575 534 458 431 413 426 -10% -7% -7% MacArthur 96 165 196 228 271 296 309 315 72% 19% 16% Garfield 160 153 387 440 537 541 509 487 -4% 153% 14% McKinley* Hawthorne 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA Baker 478 458 477 514 400 334 356 347 -4% 4% 8% Riverside 530 554 521 529 463 462 474 489 5% -6% 2% Jones 393 396 395 390 429 412 447 459 1% 0% -1% Valley View 17200 Valleyview 98 134 151 191 196 212 196 185 37% 13% 26% Totals 3186 3203 3442 3296 3262 3215 3195 3178 1% 7% -4% Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, including added LFI slots Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted, including added LFI slots * McKinley data shifted to Cluster 2 to reflect Scenario suggestion to send students to Wilbur Wright
NA -14% 19% 22%
NA -6% 9% 1%
NA -4% 4% -6%
NA 3% 2% -4%
0 0 0 426
NA -22% -12% 10%
NA -17% 0% -4%
NA 7% 3% 8%
NA -3% 3% 3%
0 350 436 450
3% -1%
8% -1%
-8% -1%
-6% -1%
350 2462 1.00018 3180 (668) 0.99545 3121 (609)
Kamm's Bellaire Puritas (1) Ward
Address 4315 West 140th 11801 Worthington 19202 Puritas 4401 Valleyside 3800 West 140th 3349 West 125th 3575 West 130th 3690 West 159th 14601 Montrose 4550 West 150th
Jan. 2008 enroll 428
Feb. 2009 enroll 449
Feb. 2010 enroll 505
Jan. 2011 enroll 470
Jan. 2012 enroll 508
Feb. 2013 enroll 527
Jan. 2014 enroll 491
Feb. 2015 enroll 470
Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change 5%
Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change 12%
0
Kamm’s Corner – Bellaire-Puritas. The proposed Master Plan would leave the cluster about 640 short of new or like/new K-8 space. The shortage occurs largely because the previously planned replacement of Westropp would be eliminated. Instead, Westropp would receive repairs and improvements in 2016-17. Baker would be replaced in Segment 8 for 400 students, with 50 slots locally funded only. Valley View would be replaced in Segment 8 for 350 students. Swing sites will be needed for both schools during construction. Candidates are Hawthorne, currently accommodating the John Marshall 9th grade, and McKinley, whose students are to be shifted to Wilbur Wright. MacArthur is to receive updates and possibly modular classrooms in 2016-17. The New Tech West high school program at Max Hayes would move to Brooklawn for two years. And the Bard Early College program would move from Brooklawn to Carl Shuler, which has been a swing site for Marshall students. 11
2015 Master Plan propposal N-3 D-10 keep keep N-3 D-9 D-10 N-8 N-1 N-3 N-8
Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change
Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change
Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change
Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change
Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change
Jan. 2014Feb. 2015 % change
2015 Master Plan capacity
2015 Master Plan propposal N-5 N-7/D9
Jan. 2008 enroll
Feb. 2009 enroll
Feb. 2010 enroll
Jan. 2011 enroll
Jan. 2012 enroll
Feb. 2013 enroll
Jan. 2014 enroll
Feb. 2015 enroll
Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change
3380 West 98th
471
473
369
379
311
323
324
447
0%
-22%
3%
-18%
4%
0%
38%
450
Booker
2121 West 67th
531
446
472
454
439
431
381
378
-16%
6%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-12%
-1%
350
Halle
7901 Halle
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0
D-7
Gallagher
6601 Franklin
812
780
758
690
647
654
701
670
-4%
-3%
-9%
-6%
1%
7%
-4%
0
keep
Agassiz
3595 Bosworth
337
347
354
352
326
325
297
347
3%
2%
-1%
-7%
0%
-9%
17%
0
keep
Alcott
10308 Baltic
212
233
225
239
201
234
221
231
10%
-3%
6%
-16%
16%
-6%
5%
226
R-5
Seltzer WattersonLake
1468 West 98th
641
590
588
534
485
454
413
355
-8%
0%
-9%
-9%
-6%
-9%
-14%
350
N-9
1422 West 74th
550
564
500
379
380
336
267
243
3%
-11%
-24%
0%
-12%
-21%
-9%
0
D-7
Waverly
1810 West 54th
448
487
462
419
338
320
301
200
9%
-5%
-9%
-19%
-5%
-6%
-34%
350
N-7
McKinley *
3349 West 125th
340
308
283
308
277
275
265
301
-9%
-8%
9%
-10%
-1%
-4%
14%
0
D-9
Wright
11005 Parkhurst
632
607
623
573
487
481
398
391
-4%
3%
-8%
-15%
-1%
-17%
-2%
0
keep
4974
4835
4634
4327
3891
3833
3568
3563
-3%
-4%
-7%
-10%
-1%
-7%
0%
1726
Detroit _ Shoreway _ Cudell _ Edgewater (2)
Address
Almira
Totals
Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, including added LFI slots Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted, including added LFI slots * McKinley data shifted from Cluster 1 to reflect Scenario suggestion to send students to Wilbur Wright
0.95400 2951 (1125) 0.95604 2977 (1151)
Detroit-Shoreway – Edgewater – Cudell – West Blvd. Parts of this densely populated area are experiencing significant housing development. However, the cluster is proposed for 1,100 fewer new or fully renovated slots than needed to accommodate its expected enrollment, largely as the result of a decision not to replace or fully renovate Gallagher or Wright, both large schools. Booker would be replaced for 350 students in Segment 7 at the current Halle site, and Watterson-Lake and Waverly would be combined in a new Waverly to be built in Segment 7 for 450 (100 slots financed only locally). Watterson-Lake and Waverly
12
students will attend Garrett Morgan during construction. A new Seltzer would be built in Segment 9. Gallagher and Wright would be remodeled in 2015-16.
Ohio City Tremont (3)
Address
Jan. 2008 enroll 443 892 0 593 315 457 456 3156
Feb. 2009 enroll 447 823 0 537 271 447 470 2995
Feb. 2010 enroll 333 784 0 368 342 466 507 2800
Jan. 2011 enroll 332 820 0 371 205 430 522 2680
Jan. 2012 enroll 351 718 0 369 182 435 575 2630
Feb. 2013 enroll 365 709 0 314 208 431 603 2630
Jan. 2014 enroll 376 639 0 333 238 406 567 2559
Feb. 2015 enroll 376 549 0 436 303 395 558 2617
Buhrer 1991 Barber Marin 1701 Castle Kentucky 3805 Terrett Orchard 4200 Bailey Dunbar 2200 West 28th Scranton 1991 Barber Tremont 2409 West 10th Totals Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, including added LFI slots Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted, including added LFI slots
Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change 1% -8% NA -9% -14% -2% 3% -5%
Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -26% -5% NA -31% 26% 4% 8% -7%
Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 0% 5% NA 1% -40% -8% 3% -4%
Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 6% -12% NA -1% -11% 1% 10% -2%
Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 4% -1% NA -15% 14% -1% 5% 0%
Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change 3% -10% NA 6% 14% -6% -6% -3%
Jan. 2014Feb. 2015 % change 0% -14% NA 31% 27% -3% -2% 2%
2015 Master Plan capacity 350 0 0 450 450 0 350 1600 0.97400 2355 (605) 0.97210 2337 (587)
Ohio City – Tremont The current proposal would leave cluster about 600 slots short of new or fully renovated space to accommodate its expected enrollment. Scranton would receive repairs and updates in 2017-18, and Marin, a large school, in 201819. The District Administration says it is undecided about what to do with Tremont Montessori, a school that draws many students from outside the cluster, but the tentative Master Plan gives it the option to replace the school for 500 students (250 slots only locally funded) in Segment 9. The BAC will research how much a full renovation would cost the District in comparison. Kentucky is leased to a charter school. Lincoln-West High School, which serves primarily Clusters 2 and 3, is tentatively to be replaced for 953 students in Segment 8, although renovation is a possibility. A new West Side High, which would also serve at least Clusters 2 and 3, is planned for 600 students in Segment 7. The site as of now is the current Max Hayes site at West 45th St. and Detroit Avenue. The Administration says it remains open to building on another site if the community proposes a suitable location. 13
2015 Master Plan propposal N-3 keep keep N-5 N-5 keep N-9
ClarkFulton Jan. Feb. Feb. Jan. Jan. Feb. Jan. Feb. Stockyards 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (4) Address enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll Clark 5550 Clark 595 560 587 551 608 611 592 598 Jefferson * 3145 West 46th 0 0 0 167 232 245 256 369 TJ High School 60 76 92 108 150 Walton 3409 Walton 592 572 603 544 460 352 311 302 Totals 1187 1132 1190 1322 1376 1300 1267 1419 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, including added LFI slots Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted, including added LFI slots
Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -6% NA
Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change 5% NA
Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change -6% NA
Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 10% 39%
Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 0% 6%
Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change -3% 4%
Jan. 2014Feb. 2015 % change 1% 44%
-3% -5%
5% 5%
-10% 11%
-15% 4%
-23% -6%
-12% -3%
-3% 12%
2015 Master Plan capacity 350 785
2015 Master Plan propposal N-9 N-4
0 1135 1.02800 1585 (200) 1.02626 1615 (230)
D-10
Clark-Fulton – Stockyards Jefferson serves as the International Newcomers Academy K-12, but it was built as a large K-8 and counts as such in OFCC calculations of co-funded elementary school space. This analysis treats Jefferson as a cluster K-8 even though it draws is enrollment from many areas and it includes high school students. The inclusion of Jefferson skews both the demand and supply sides of the BAC calculations. Still, it remains unclear where students in the Walton area will eventually attend school. Walton is slated for maintenance in 2018-19, but the official OFCC Master Plan provides for its eventual demolition. The District says Walton is not architecturally suited for a northern climate. Even counting the unused space at Jefferson as a cluster K-8, the current proposal would leave this cluster more than 200 slots short of new or fully renovated space to accommodate its expected enrollment. The District proposes to replace Clark for 600 students (250 slots financed only locally) in Segment 9.
14
Old Brooklyn Brooklyn Center (5) Franklin Mooney * Denison Bryant
Address 1905 Spring 3213 Montclair 3799 West 33rd 3121 Oak Park
Jan. 2008 enroll 691 614 707 502
Feb. 2009 enroll 678 606 712 449
Feb. 2010 enroll 630 563 712 424
Jan. 2011 enroll 667 725 617 350
Jan. 2012 enroll 634 490 634 370
Feb. 2013 enroll 558 505 571 389
Jan. 2014 enroll 591 505 484 417
Feb. 2015 enroll 577 450 437 374
Harper 5515 Ira 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Totals 2514 2445 2329 2359 2128 2023 1997 1838 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, including added LFI slots Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted, including added LFI slots * Has additional 162 in Facing History New Tech 9-10th Grades
Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -2% -1% 1% -11%
Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -7% -7% 0% -6%
Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 6% 29% -13% -17%
Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change -5% -32% 3% 6%
Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change -12% 3% -10% 5%
Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change 6% 0% -15% 7%
Jan. 2014Feb. 2015 % change -2% -11% -10% -10%
NA -3%
NA -5%
NA 1%
NA -10%
NA -5%
NA -1%
NA -8%
2015 Master Plan capacity
0 0 350 0 350 700 0.95689 1541 (791) 0.95666 1539 (789)
Old Brooklyn – Brooklyn Center The current proposal would leave this cluster nearly 800 slots short of space to accommodate its K-8 students in new or fully renovated schools. The plan calls for a new Harper for 350 students in Segment 7 and a new Denison for 400 students (50 slots funded only locally) in Segment 9. Denison students would attend class at Mooney during construction. The District still must decide where to relocate the New Tech Facing History high school program currently on Mooney's third floor. James Rhodes High, which is in the cluster, has been filled to capacity for years. Mooney is scheduled to receive some maintenance in 2018-19, but the OFCC Master Plan provides for its eventual demolition. The Administration said the community has expressed an architectural preference for Franklin not to be replaced. The option of full renovation has not been mentioned. Bryant is to receive repairs and improvements in 2016-17. The BAC has heard no mention of other options for Bryant. 15
2015 Master Plan propposal keep D-10 N-9 keep N-7/D6
Broadway Jan. Feb. Feb. Jan. Jan. Feb. Jan. - Slavic 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Village (6) Address enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll Hart 3901 East 74th 374 408 328 0 0 0 0 Fullerton 5920 Fullerton 374 398 367 401 316 309 297 Mound 5935 Ackley 317 248 235 253 499 485 417 Union 6701 Union 243 272 233 254 0 0 0 Willow 5004 Glazier 244 222 215 227 237 228 265 Warner 8315 Jeffries 128 197 264 302 354 350 395 Totals 1680 1745 1642 1437 1406 1372 1374 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted
Feb. 2015 enroll 0 246 389 0 253 368 1256
Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change 9% 6% -22% 12% -9% 54% 4%
Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -20% -8% -5% -14% -3% 34% -6%
Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change -100% 9% 8% 9% 6% 14% -12%
Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change NA -21% 97% -100% 4% 17% -2%
Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change NA -2% -3% NA -4% -1% -2%
Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change NA -4% -14% NA 16% 13% 0%
Jan. 2014Feb. 2015 % change NA -17% -7% NA -5% -7% -9%
2015 Master Plan capacity 0 350 450 0 0 570 1370 0.96066 1070 300 0.96216 1076 294
Broadway – Slavic Village The proposal would provide new or fully renovated space for about 300 more K-8 students than the cluster is expected to have. Neither of the clusters two previously built new schools is filled to capacity, and a new Fullerton is being planned on the old A.B. Hart site for 350 students, even though the school has only about 250 students. The geographically isolated Willow is to be updated with the possible addition of modular classrooms in 2015-16. In all, the District plan would provide new or fully renovated space in 2018 for more students than the cluster has now, even though Warner draws students from outside the cluster. This area was hit hard by the foreclosure crisis, and residential redevelopment could increase demand for school space. The Washington Park environmental studies high school would receive repairs, updates and possibly modular classrooms in 201617.
16
2015 Master Plan propposal D-6 N-7 N-4 D-6 keep N-2
Jan.
Feb.
Feb.
Jan.
Jan.
Feb.
Jan.
Lee - Miles 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (7) Address enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll Stevenson 18300 Woda 299 282 279 288 388 438 375 Dickens 13013 Corlett 384 312 313 433 413 369 319 Eliot 15700 Lotus 326 336 345 466 510 485 416 Miles 11918 Miles 416 354 339 385 346 281 263 Miles Park 4090 East 93rd 549 444 502 565 578 551 552 Hale 3588 MLK, Jr. 367 333 318 412 435 402 381 Revere 10706 Sandusky 481 420 420 508 476 348 288 Jamison 4092 East 146th 586 522 463 442 438 417 432 Young (2-8) 17900 Harvard 182 165 124 208 184 171 147 Cranwood 13604 Christine 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 deSauze * 4747 East 176th 356 319 295 284 0 0 0 Gracemount 16200 Glendale 504 441 470 0 0 0 0 Woodland Hills 9201 Crane 394 347 293 348 0 0 0 Totals 4844 4275 4161 4339 3768 3462 3173 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted
Feb. 2015 enroll 410 318 339 362 490 374 298 348 155 0 0 0
Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -6% -19% 3% -15% -19% -9% -13% -11% -9% NA -10% -13%
Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -1% 0% 3% -4% 13% -5% 0% -11% -25% NA -8% 7%
Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 3% 38% 35% 14% 13% 30% 21% -5% 68% NA -4% -100%
Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 35% -5% 9% -10% 2% 6% -6% -1% -12% NA -100% NA
Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 13% -11% -5% -19% -5% -8% -27% -5% -7% NA NA NA
Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change -14% -14% -14% -6% 0% -5% -17% 4% -14% NA NA NA
Jan. 2014Feb. 2015 % change 9% 0% -19% 38% -11% -2% 3% -19% 5% NA NA NA
0 3094
-12% -12%
-16% -3%
19% 4%
-100% -13%
NA -8%
NA -8%
NA -2%
2015 Master Plan capacity 450 450 350 450 650 400 0 450 0 0 0 0
2015 Master Plan propposal N-4 N-4 N-7 N-5 N-1 N-4 D-7 N-4 D-8 D-10 D-6 D-6
0 3200 0.93964 2412 788 0.93326 2347 853
sold
Lee-Miles The proposed Master Plan would give this cluster about 800 more K-8 slots than it is likely to need. None of the new schools that it already has is being filled to capacity, but the plan calls for building a new Eliot for 350 students on a campus with a new John F. Kennedy High (800 students) on a campus at Frederick Douglass Park. Eliot and JFK would absorb the Whitney Young program for gifted elementary and high school students. The current JFK and Young properties on Harvard Ave. would be made available for retail, residential and recreational development. The District has disclosed the possibility that the Eliot plan could be shifted to the Young site, which is 20 acres. 17
Central Kinsman Mt. Jan. Feb. Feb. Jan. Jan. Feb. Jan. Pleasant 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (8) Address enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll Rickoff 3500 East 147th 604 572 544 504 540 513 515 Benesch 5393 Quincy 0 0 0 0 0 0 383 Grdina 2955 East 71st , 547 532 484 366 377 357 341 Audubon 3055 MLK, Jr. 496 443 326 0 0 0 0 Stokes 2225 East 40th 550 543 523 586 494 424 0 Dike 2501 East 61st 390 396 399 499 417 357 318 Carver 2200 E. 55th , 426 435 447 346 533 472 373 Sterling 3033 Central 538 530 506 533 499 374 366 Robert Fulton 3291 East 140th 316 284 283 0 0 0 0 Totals 3867 3735 3512 2834 2860 2497 2296 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted
Feb. 2015 enroll 442 388 339 0 0 297 399 308
Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -5% NA -3% -11% -1% 2% 2% -1%
Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -5% NA -9% -26% -4% 1% 3% -5%
Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change -7% NA -24% -100% 12% 25% -23% 5%
Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 7% NA 3% NA -16% -16% 54% -6%
Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change -5% NA -5% NA -14% -14% -11% -25%
Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change 0% NA -4% NA -100% -11% -21% -2%
Jan. 2014Feb. 2015 % change -14% NA -1% NA NA -7% 7% -16%
0 2173
-10% -3%
0% -6%
-100% -19%
NA 1%
NA -13%
NA -8%
NA -5%
2015 Master Plan capacity 720 0 540 0 0 0 450 350
2015 Master Plan propposal N-1 keep N-4 D-10 D-10 D-10 N-4 N-8
0 2060 0.92304 1577 483 0.92903 1619 441
D-10
Central – Kinsman – Mt. Pleasant. The proposal would give this cluster about 450 more new or fully renovated K-8 slots than it is likely to need based on enrollment trends. However, this cluster is rather far-flung geographically, east and west, and most of the overcapacity is due to unused space at schools built in Segments 1 and 4, Rickoff and Grdina. The area around Sterling has no new school and is undergoing substantial housing redevelopment. Dike is to be maintained with an arts-oriented curriculum, but the OFCC Master Plan provides for its eventual demolition. Benesch, which has previously been repaired and updated for use as swing site and then for transfer of students from the closed Stokes Academy, is to receive some maintenance work in 2017-18.
18
Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -8%
Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change -100%
Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change NA
Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change NA
Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change NA
Jan. 2014Feb. 2015 % change NA
2015 Master Plan capacity 0
Jan. 2008 enroll 392
Feb. 2009 enroll 403
Feb. 2010 enroll 371
Jan. 2011 enroll 0
Jan. 2012 enroll 0
Feb. 2013 enroll 0
Jan. 2014 enroll 0
Feb. 2015 enroll 0
Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change 3%
272 266
270 235
266 370
305 459
276 477
220 499
224 485
254 461
-1% -12%
-1% 57%
15% 24%
-10% 4%
-20% 5%
2% -3%
13% -5%
0 450
D-7 N-3
Sunbeam 244 210 209 256 257 251 Totals 1174 1118 1216 1020 1010 970 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted
261 970
282 997
-14% -5%
0% 9%
22% -16%
0% -1%
-2% -4%
4% 0%
8% 3%
350 800 0.97960 918 (118) 0.98615 943 (143)
N-7
Buckeye Shaker Larchmere (9) Bell BuckeyeWoodland Rice
Address 11815 Larchmere 9511 Buckeye 2730 East 116th 11731 Mt.Overlook
Buckeye – Shaker – Larchmere The Administration is proposing to replace Sunbeam with a new "Skyline" school for 350 students, including the District's program for medically fragile children. Sunbeam and the demolished A.G. Bell school shared the site, which also has the former Jesse Owens school. Owens is planned for demolition in the ongoing Segment 6. Buckeye-Woodland is to be closed and demolished in Segment 7. It is expected that those students will attend other nearby schools, possibly included Bolton, which technically is in Cluster 10. The closure of Buckeye-Woodland suggests the possibility that Skyline needs to be larger.
19
2015 Master Plan propposal D-5
Glenville University Jan. Feb. Feb. Jan. Jan. Feb. Jan. Feb. - Fairfax 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (10) Address enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll Roth 12523 Woodside 343 299 281 304 0 0 0 0 Bolton 9803 Quebec 369 369 336 436 394 318 312 311 Empire 9113 Parmalee 338 282 231 0 0 0 0 0 Roosevelt 800 Linn 324 360 499 613 552 468 426 428 Forest Hills 450 East 112th 402 360 259 0 0 0 0 0 Giddings 2250 East 71st 328 307 292 284 0 0 0 0 Iowa Maple 12510 Maple 383 329 346 366 423 372 333 310 Landis 10118 Hampden 398 360 350 0 0 0 0 0 Lake 9201 Hillock 274 213 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bethune 11815 Moulton 361 348 362 388 337 348 338 294 White 1000 East 92nd 390 349 322 462 437 380 326 291 Henry 11901 Durant 385 334 334 347 378 371 351 367 Totals 4295 3910 3612 3200 2521 2257 2086 2001 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 * Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted * * FDR capacity reduced from OSFC-designated 1,115 to 850 to reflect use of part of school by Boys and Girls Clubs
Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -13% 0% -17% 11% -10% -6% -14% -10% -22% -4% -11% -13% -9%
Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -6% -9% -18% 39% -28% -5% 5% -3% -100% 4% -8% 0% -8%
Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 8% 30% -100% 23% -100% -3% 6% -100% NA 7% 43% 4% -11%
Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change -100% -10% NA -10% NA -100% 16% NA NA -13% -5% 9% -21%
Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change NA -19% NA -15% NA NA -12% NA NA 3% -13% -2% -10%
Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change NA -2% NA -9% NA NA -10% NA NA -3% -14% -5% -8%
Jan. 2014Feb. 2015 % change NA 0% NA 0% NA NA -7% NA NA -13% -11% 5% -4%
2015 Master Plan capacity 0 350 0 1115 0 0 350
0 0 500 350 450 3115 0.89809 1302 1548 0.90792 1360 1490
Glenville – University – Fairfax The proposal would provide this cluster with capacity to accommodate about 1,400 to 1,500 more students than it is likely to have, although the provision for a new 350-student White in Segment 9 is tentative. A big problem in this cluster is that about 400 slots at FDR remain unused even after deducting space for 256 students now used by Boys and Girls Clubs. FDR is on the OFCC books as having a capacity for 1,115 students. Neither of the other two schools built in this cluster is being used to capacity. That said, Bolton could absorb some students from Buckeye-Woodland, which is to be closed in Cluster 9, and Iowa Maple serves an area that formerly was classified as being in the Collinwood neighborhood. However, Iowa Maple already has fewer students than its planned capacity of 350, and it has experienced steep enrollment declines in the last four years. 20
2015 Master Plan propposal sold N-8 D-10 R-2 D-5 D-6 N-9 sold D-4 R-2 N-9 N-3
Jan.
Downtown 2008 - St. ClairFeb. Superior 2009 Jan. Feb. Feb. Jan. Jan. Feb. Jan. Feb. Hough 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % (11) Address enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll enroll change Case 4050 Superior 536 447 369 451 381 396 347 311 -17% Campus CSU/United Int. Methodist 113 213 309 370 439 Orr 9711 Lamont 191 157 177 173 0 0 0 0 -18% D Morgan 8912 Morris Ct. 481 438 380 354 353 313 317 292 -9% Raper 1601 East 85th 468 405 352 0 0 0 0 0 -13% Rockefeller 5901 Whittier 250 246 220 0 0 0 0 0 -2% Ireland 1800 East 63rd 169 171 79 57 0 0 0 0 1% 443 407 Martin 8200 Brookline 342 416 336 316 479 383 22% Wade Park 7600 Wade Park 242 194 388 396 413 379 351 356 -20% Willson 1126 Ansel 0 0 0 393 399 380 344 352 NA Totals 2679 2474 2301 2253 2238 2220 2136 2133 -8% Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19, adjusted for two more Campus International grades Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, including added LFI slots Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19, adjusted for two more Campus Int. grades Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted, including added LFI slots
Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -17%
Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 22%
Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change -16%
Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change 4%
Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change -12%
Jan. 2014Feb. 2015 % change -10%
13% -13% -13% -11% -54% -19% 100% NA -7%
-2% -7% -100% -100% -28% -6% 2% NA -2%
NA 0% NA NA -100% 52% 4% 2% -1%
NA -11% NA NA NA -8% -8% -5% -1%
NA 1% NA NA NA -8% -7% -9% -4%
NA -8% NA NA NA -6% 1% 2% 0%
2015 Master Plan capacity 350 485
0 480 0 0 0 490 501 574 2880 0.96839 2026 1089 0.97133 2049 1066
1. Downtown – St. Clair-Superior - Hough Using the BAC's methodology, it looks as if the Administration's Master Plan proposal would give this cluster 1,000 to 2,000 more K-8 slots than it will need. The plan calls for a new 720-student Campus International school (235 slots only locally funded) on or near the Cleveland State University campus and a new Case for 350 students on the site of the old Willson school on East 55th St. However, this is a case in which the inclusion of a growing school with a truly citywide draw, Campus International, greatly skews the data on both the demand and supply sides of the equation. Whether the school needs to be big enough to accommodate 720 is difficult to say at this point, although it appears that demand for the school, which currently only goes to Grade 6, is very strong. Removal of Campus International from the equation focuses attention on the real problem, which is that none of the four other schools already built in the cluster is being used to capacity. Case, meanwhile, serves a geographic area that is not served by another CMSD school. The old Willson site is convenient for the District because it already owns the property and needs to demolish the building anyway, but the site is flanked to the east by an area devastated by the foreclosure crisis. Whether the current Case community will accept this site remains to be seen. 21
2015 Master Plan propposal N-8 N-6 sold N-2 D-6 D-6 keep R-2 N-3 N-3
Jan. 2014 enroll 331 372 281 0
Feb. 2015 enroll 263 345 260 0
Jan. 2008 Feb. 2009 % change -10% -10% 1% -28%
Clement 125 153 188 187 194 173 180 Memorial 504 513 493 513 506 451 447 Perry 389 443 416 417 333 309 273 Totals 2186 2126 2048 2105 2112 1925 1884 Ave. annual survival factor Projected enrollment in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19 Ave. annual survival factor, adjusted to remove highest and lowest years Projected enrollment, adjusted, in 2018-19 Excess / (deficit) of Master Plan slots in 2018-19, adjusted
188 437 239 1732
22% 2% 14% -3%
Collinwood - Euclid (12) East Clark Euclid Park Gibbons Longfellow
Address 885 East 146th 17914 Euclid , 1401 Larchmont 650 East 140th 14311 Woodworth Rd 410 East 152nd 18400 Schenely
Jan. 2008 enroll 277 277 267 347
Feb. 2009 enroll 249 249 269 250
Feb. 2010 enroll 230 230 251 240
Jan. 2011 enroll 394 334 260 0
Jan. 2012 enroll 409 357 313 0
Feb. 2013 enroll 336 343 313 0
Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 % change -8% -8% -7% -4%
Feb. 2010 Jan. 2011 % change 71% 45% 4% -100%
Jan. 2011 Jan. 2012 % change 4% 7% 20% NA
Jan. 2012 Feb. 2013 % change -18% -4% 0% NA
Feb. 2013Jan. 2014 % change -1% 8% -10% NA
Jan. 2014Feb. 2015 % change -21% -7% -7% NA
23% -4% -6% -4%
-1% 4% 0% 3%
4% -1% -20% 0%
-11% -11% -7% -9%
4% -1% -12% -2%
4% -2% -12% -8%
2015 Master Plan capacity 450 351 351 0
2015 Master Plan propposal N-3 N-4 N-2 D-6
0 631 350 2133 0.96807 1521 612 0.96744 1517 616
keep N-1 N-7
Collinwood – Euclid The only change for this cluster, which already has four new schools, is the suggested addition of a new O.H. Perry for 350 students in Segment 8, which would give the cluster excess capacity of about 600 students. However, Perry lies in the only part of the cluster not currently served by a new or fully renovated school. The overcapacity is the result of unused new space at East Clark and Memorial. Based on comments made by attendees at the Cluster open house last spring, a thorough but partial renovation of Perry may be acceptable.
22