the GREEN sheet | May/June 2023

TALEGA’S REAL ESTATE MARKET

WHERE IS TALEGA HEADED?

by Doug Echelberger

Being the top realtor in San Clemente, I get asked on a daily basis a lot of questions about real estate, the most common one being: How is the market? My answer is that overall our real estate market is healthy and stable. Other commonly asked questions include:

• Have we seen prices on some Talega homes drop since last year? Yes.

• Have we seen prices increase since last year? Most definitely.

• Are interest rates affecting buyers? Yes, for those that need a loan.

• Has our inventory exploded where buyers have lots of choices when looking? Absolutely not.

• Are there still buyers looking? Yes, but about 60% less than in our peak of 2022-2023.

• Will my home be worth more next year? Probably.

• Is this market going to drastically change anytime soon? Probably not, so buckle in for a boring and stable 2023.

Right now there are lots of factors influencing our Talega market and where we both are and headed. Coming off of years of low interest rates, homeowners that currently have a loan are locked in somewhere between 2-3.5%. Thus they are content where they are living and comfortable with their housing cost. They did not panic when the market shifted last year and can weather a longer storm staying in their homes. This factor is causing low inventory resulting in buyers having fewer choices.

I often hear “Interest rates are so high, no one must be buying right?” That is wrong as there is always a buyer pool in any market. Buyers are electing to pay cash, variable loans are popular and some are just moving equity from one house to another holding a small loan. Yes, there are a lot less buyers in the market than previous years but there is still a steady stream of buyers coming to Talega and San Clemente.

This year, our Active inventory has been hovering around 84 homes on average. Each month about 40-50 homes get listed, 44 homes on average go into escrow, 42 homes on average close escrow and some fall off the market without selling. There has been no dramatic increase in inventory and there is a stable buyer pool purchasing homes, hence a balanced market. Transactional volume is at about half or slightly more than previous years but the balance between buyer and sellers is healthy and stable which has been sustaining pricing. This is different from any past down markets where there was panic and owners flooded the market with inventory, resulting in mass competition for fewer buyers and prices dropped dramatically.

What is on the horizon? In their latest monthly forecast, economists with Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group said they expect the Federal Reserve to implement a final 25-basis rate hike in May and then begin bringing rates back down by the end of the year as the economy enters a “modest recession.” If rates move downward towards the end of the year, the buyer pool should slightly increase. Inventory will likely not increase due to the above factors discussed and buyer competition will then increase. Reading the tea leaves, the 2024 market for Talega should be stronger than 2023 when it comes to pricing.

When we are hit on the daily with tons of economic factors that could change our market, you can get deep into the weeds very quickly trying to calculate where we are going. However, one factor in San Clemente and Talega that has always been consistent and often overlooked or downplayed, is our weather. Seems simple enough but with more people being able to live and work anywhere in the US, their level of comfort and safety are big factors in where they choose to live. We are lucky to live in such a beautiful, sunny place with average temperatures in the 70’s, low humidity, beautiful beaches, stunning sunrises and sunsets and tons of outdoor activities. I have enjoyed this lifestyle for 53 years being born and raised in San Clemente, I can’t question the rest of the world for wanting to live here in our paradise. The conclusion is that a consistent buyer pool with few choices will keep pricing stable with more potential to move upward than down.

The last question I didn’t answer is why are homes selling for more than last year while others are not? I’ll cover that in my next Green Sheet article or feel free to call, email or text me to discuss anytime.

1.Duncan Doug, " Economy Resumes Gradual Slowdown Following Bank Turmoil"Fannie Mae, ESR Group, https://bit.ly/3AZgNv7

• The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks increased by 34 homes, up 1%, and now sits at 2,076, this first substantial rise of the year. Nonetheless, it is the lowest level at the end of April since tracking began in 2004. In April, 49% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 1,983 less. Last year, there were 2,104 homes on the market, 28 more homes, or 1% higher. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 6,002, or 189% more.

• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 43 pending sales in the past two weeks, up 3%, and now totals 1,706, the lowest end-of-April reading since 2020 during the COVID lockdown. Last year, there were 2,154 pending sales, 26% more than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,780, or 63% more.

• With the inventory and demand rising at a similar rate, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, remained unchanged at 37 days in the past couple of weeks, its lowest level since May of last year. It was 29 days last year, slightly better than today.

• For homes priced below $750,000, the Expected Market Time remained unchanged at 27 days. This range represents 21% of the active inventory and 28% of demand.

• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 22 to 23 days. This range represents 15% of the active inventory and 24% of demand.

• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 27 to 23 days. This range represents 9% of the active inventory and 15% of demand.

• For homes priced between $1.25 million to $1.5 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 30 to 32 days. This range represents 9% of the active inventory and 10% of demand.

• For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 52 to 46 days. This range represents 13% of the active inventory and 10% of demand.

• For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time in the past two weeks remained unchanged at 72 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 212 to 116 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 341 to 353 days.

• The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, account for 33% of the inventory and 12% of demand.

• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.6% of all listings and 0.3% of demand. Only five foreclosures and seven short sales are available today in Orange County, with 12 total distressed homes on the active market, up two from two weeks ago. Last year there were four distressed home on the market, similar to today.

• There were 1,789 closed residential resales in March, 32% less than March 2022’s 2,645 closed sales. March marked a 41% increase compared to February 2023. The sales-to-list price ratio was 99.6% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.1% of all closed sales, and there were no closed short sales. That means that 99.9% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

for more information on current oc housing market, visit our market reports at

Via Alcamo

Exceptionally upgraded and completely move-in ready, this luxurious San Clemente home in Talega’s gated Catania neighborhood is generous in size and style. Nestled on a corner homesite opposite preserved open space, the twostory residence is characterized by a covered entry porch and mature landscaping. Interior spaces are professionally embellished with wood flooring, handsome millwork, custom paint in a pleasing palette, subtle archways, plantation shutters and custom lighting. Just off the foyer awaits a versatile office with gorgeous window, an elegant staircase, and a formal dining room with wainscoting and a shimmering LED chandelier. Surround sound and a stacked-stone fireplace enrich the family room, and the newly remodeled kitchen proudly displays white Shaker cabinetry, quartz countertops, an island, pantry, nook, spice drawers, butler’s pantry, farmhouse sink, a built-in Viking refrigerator, Dacor cooktop and GE Monogram double ovens. Enviable style awaits in the first-level primary suite, which opens to the backyard and presents a walk-in closet with custom built-ins, and an upgraded bath with picture-frame mirror, jetted tub and separate shower. A loft with balcony and built-in cabinets is located upstairs and is joined by two bedrooms that share a bath and another ensuite bedroom with large picture window. Approximately 2,941 square feet, the four-bedroom, three- and one-half-bath residence is powered by an owned solar system and boasts a new solar-powered louvered patio cover in the backyard that can open and close for sun or shade. Grounds span about 6,229 square feet and a two-car garage is featured. Tierra Grande Park is just around the corner, and Talega’s excellent schools, shopping centers and golf courses are close by. A quick drive leads to San Clemente’s picturesque beaches and classic pier.

Custom-Caliber Estate

414 Camino Vista Verde

This luxurious turnkey residence in the hills of Talega’s Pacifica community in San Clemente offers a sense of personal achievement and success. The expansive home, measuring approximately 4,333 square feet, is located at the top of the neighborhood on a single-loaded cul-de-sac and features breathtaking city-light and valley views with a glimpse of the ocean. A charming front patio sets a welcoming tone, while the backyard offers an enticing oasis with a pool and spa, custom BBQ bar, and a cozy fireplaceperfect for entertaining. The home is situated on an approximately 8,375 square feet lot, adding to its appeal. Inside, custom leaded-glass entry doors open to a stunning two-story rotunda foyer with a dramatic staircase, revealing an open floorplan that includes formal living and dining rooms, a library or game room, and a family room with a stone fireplace. The island kitchen is a chef's delight, featuring granite countertops, a pantry, built-in desk, nook, and stainless-steel appliances. The home features plantation shutters, custom paint, hand-crafted built-ins, and travertine tile flooring, with the upper rotunda showcasing patterned carpeting. The residence offers five bedrooms and fourand-one-half baths, including an ensuite main-level bedroom, a secondary ensuite upstairs, and two additional bedrooms sharing a Jack-nJill bath. The master suite features wood flooring, a retreat, a bow window, a walk-in closet with custom built-ins, a tub, and dual vanities. Additionally, the versatile loft with built-in cabinetry provides the perfect space for a home office. Solar is owned free and clear.

Luxuriously Refined in Ravenna

TALEGA RESIDENCES

Doug Echelberger has a PROVEN track record in Talega Real Estate

38 VIA ALCAMO JUST SOLD

25 VIA GARONA IN ESCROW

414 CAMINO VISTA VERDE JUST LISTED

20 CORTE JAIME IN ESCROW

18 VIA ALCAMO ACTIVE

12 CORTE VIZCAYA SOLD

5 CORTE SEVILLA IN ESCROW

24 PASEO VERDE SOLD IN 14 DAYS

TALEGA RESIDENCES

Represented by Doug Echelberger

We respect your time, and value your business. We know you could go anywhere for your real estate needs, and appreciate having the opportunity to serve you the best way we can. For more information, or to be the first to learn about pocket listings, open houses, market reports, and local events visit us online or call 949 498 7711

the sheet

YOUR TALEGA MARKET REPORT FOR HOME VALUES IN APRIL

"Doug and his team kept us informed with all important developments during the sale of our father's home in San Clemente. I enthusiastically recommend Doug to anyone looking to buy or sell a home." - Joe K.

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

the sheet

YOUR TALEGA MARKET REPORT FOR HOME VALUES IN APRIL

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES

The Green Sheet is based on information from the Association of REALTORS®/Multiple Listing Service as of 4.12.23 and/or other sources. The Talega Green Sheet and MLS data is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS. The Broker/Agent providing the information contained herein may or may not have been the Listing and/or Selling Agent. The properties listed above are not all Pacific Sotheby's International Realty and include listings from other brokers. If you notice any incorrect information or a property that is not listed, please call my office immediately at 949.498.7711. To preserve space, old sales before 1.1.2023 have been eliminated. If you would like the name, address, and phone number of the firm representing a specific property listed above, please email info@echelberger.com.

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