December 2015 Downtown Denver Economic Update

Page 1

DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

.

Residential development in Downtown and its City Center neighborhoods continues at a brisk pace. The Downtown Denver Partnership recently released a Center City Neighborhood Residential Development Map and Profiles showing that 12,933 units were added since 2011 or are currently under construction. Almost half of these units, 6,165, are currently under construction. 26 projects are scheduled to be completed in 2016 or 2017. For more information about development in Downtown Denver, refer to the Development Maps by visiting www. downtowndenver.com/resources-downloads.

For-Sale Units

Rental Units

Number of Projects

Auraria

-

-

-

Ballpark

66

0

3

Capitol Hill

-

115

1

Central Business District

-

354

1

CPV/Denver Union Station

-

1,272

4

Curtis Park/Five Points

21

501

5

Golden Triangle

-

698

3

Highland

53

632

7

Jefferson Park

56

223

5

La Alma/Lincoln Park

-

800

1

RiNo

-

1002

4

Sun Valley

-

-

-

372

1

5,969

35

Uptown

Total

196

Sources: Downtown Denver Partnership, Metro Denver Economic Development Corporation, Denver Business Journal, Denver Post.

About This Report

News & Rankings • Sunrun, the largest dedicated residential solar company in the U.S., opened an office in Downtown Denver and plans to hire up to 800 workers in the next few years. • HomeAdvisor is relocating their headquarters to Downtown Denver and opening a sales and training center at 15th and Wazee streets. • The Urban Land Institute released their 2016 Emerging Trends report and Denver ranked as the sixthhottest commercial real estate market in the country.

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION AS OF DECEMBER 2015 City Center Neighborhood

DECEMBER 2015

• Money Magazine declared Denver to be the best city to live in the West, calling Denver a “mecca for millennials” and praising Denver’s great access to recreation. • Denver was ranked third in the U.S. for tech jobs. According to an analysis by Simply Hired, one in five job openings in Denver were technology jobs, the most of any city other than San Francisco or Seattle. • WalletHub ranked Denver the seventh most livable city in the country. • Denver has the highest percentage of women partners of any city in the country, with over 28% of partners being women. • Forbes found that Denver is the third-easiest city in the country to find a job.

This report includes the most recent quarterly data available and covers economic conditions in three areas. The first and smallest area, the Business Improvement District (BID), is the core of Downtown Denver, The second area, “Downtown,” includes the BID as well as a few surrounding districts such as the Golden Triangle. The third area, City Center Neighborhoods, includes the BID, Downtown, and surrounding residential neighborhoods such as Uptown and Highland. Data in this report was provided by Development Research Partners. For questions or comments, please contact the Downtown Denver Partnership Research Department at 303-534-6161.

DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE DECEMBER 2015 EMPLOYMENT

RETAIL SALES

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

OFFICE MARKET

HOTEL MARKET

This report contains the most recent economic indicators available for Downtown Denver and the Business Improvement District. According to the most recent indicators, Downtown Denver economic conditions continued to improve, but at a slightly slower rate than previous quarters. Office vacancy rates declined and average lease rates increased as employment expanded. Retail vacancy rates increased slightly even as consumers continued to spend at a healthy pace.

Summary

EMPLOYMENT Employment levels continued to rise in both Downtown Denver and the Business Improvement District (BID) with employment levels rising 1.4 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. The professional and business services supersector (+1,050 jobs) added the most jobs over-the-year in Downtown Denver, followed by the leisure and hospitality supersector (+800 jobs). Despite low crude oil prices, the natural resources industry continued to add jobs through end of Q1 2015.

1Q 2015

Industry

Share

1Q14

1Q15

Change

1Q14

1Q15

Change

Professional & Business Services

31%

36,381

37,434

2.9%

32,011

32,569

1.7%

Government

19%

23,384

23,038

-1.5%

21,011

20,675

-1.6%

Leisure & Hospitality

15%

17,788

18,591

4.5%

12,792

13,120

2.6%

Financial Activities

11%

14,484

13,127

-9.4%

11,249

11,601

3.1%

Natural Resources & Construction

9%

10,440

11,055

5.9%

9,675

10,440

7.9%

Information

4%

4,330

4,274

-1.3%

3,604

3,513

-2.5%

Wholesale & Retail Trade

4%

4,045

4,233

4.6%

3,047

3,225

5.8%

Education & Health Services

3%

2,663

3,129

17.5%

1,528

1,863

22.0%

Other Services

2%

2,613

2,679

2.5%

2,237

2,245

0.3%

Transp., Warehousing & Utilities

1%

1,446

1,528

5.6%

1,356

1,424

5.0%

Manufacturing

1%

857

1,024

19.5%

122

208

70.0%

Total

118,432

120,111

1.4%

98,634

100,883 2.3%

123,000

Employment Trends Downtown Denver

+1.4%

Metro Denver

+4.2%

Colorado

+3.8%

United States

+2.3%

BID

DOWNTOWN DENVER

121,000

DOWNTOWN DENVER HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT

119,000 117,000 115,000 113,000 111,000 109,000 107,000 3Q10 1Q11

3Q11

1Q12 3Q12

1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15

Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages; Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Labor Market Information, Current Employment Statistics; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Development Research Partners; Downtown Denver Partnership.


DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE

DECEMBER 2015

RETAIL SALES

RETAIL SALES DOWNTOWN Industry

BID

Share

2Q14

2Q15

Change

2Q14

2Q15

Change

Restaurants

50%

$5,137,399

$5,594,438

8.9%

$4,008,924

$4,205,702

4.9%

Hotel & Other Accommodation Svcs.

23%

$2,163,928

$2,540,126

17.4%

$1,850,867

$1,951,189

5.4%

Clothing/Accessory Stores

6%

$680,210

$701,101

3.1%

$675,622

$698,155

3.3%

Miscellaneous Stores

5%

$688,909

$566,968

-17.7%

$337,920

$337,587

-0.1%

Motor Vehicles & Auto Parts

4%

$332,698

$444,742

33.7%

$146,182

$263,295

80.1%

Manufacturing

3%

$437,852

$386,837

-11.7%

$352,121

$298,560

-15.2%

Other Categories (under 3% each of total)

9%

$1,328,729

$1,047,654

-21.2%

$902,791

$777,852

-14%

TOTAL

$10,769,725

$11,281,866

4.8%

$8,274,427

$8,532,340

** The BID contains one industrial property, which is occupied.

3Q14

3Q15

AVG. LEASE RATE* Change

3Q14

3Q15

BID

11.1%

9.8%

-1.3

$30.85

$32.57

5.6%

Downtown

10.4%

9.9%

-0.5

$31.12

$32.86

5.6%

Metro Denver

10.6%

9.6%

-1.0

$23.05

$24.07

4.4%

INDUSTRIAL BID **

0.0%

0.0%

0.0

-

-

-

Downtown

0.0%

0.8%

0.8

$11.92

$15.54

30.4%

Metro Denver

3.7%

2.8%

-0.9

$5.71

$6.81

19.3%

RETAIL BID

5.8%

6.3%

0.5

$28.19

$29.64

5.1%

Downtown

3.9%

4.6%

0.7

$28.51

$26.78

-6.1%

Metro Denver

5.6%

5.0%

-0.6

$15.72

$15.70

-0.1%

HISTORICAL OFFICE AVG. LEASE RATE $33.00 $32.00

CITY CENTER NEIGHBORHOODS 2Q14

2Q15

Change

13.5%

10.5%

2Q15

9.0%

2Q14

Change

$31.00 $30.00

12.0%

METRO DENVER

CONDOMINIUMS/TOWNHOMES

$29.00 $28.00 $27.00 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15

$26.00 25

Total Homes Sold

179

171

-4.5%

382

369

-3.4%

4,261

4,823

13.2%

Ave. Sales Price

$476,132

$554,612

16.5%

$353,168

$400,024

13.3%

$207,750

$231,616

11.5%

Ave. Price/sf

$388

$438

12.9%

$326

$375

15.0%

$177

$199

12.4%

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES 0

0

--%

106

80

-24.5%

12,521

13,223

5.6%

Ave. Sales Price

N/A

N/A

--%

$438,123

$548,813

25.3%

$366,337

$407,889

11.3%

Ave. Price/sf

N/A

N/A

0.0%

$305

$360

18.0%

$201

$222

10.4%

ALL HOMES

HOTEL MARKET

1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15

Indicators show the hotel market in Downtown Denver remains strong. While occupancy rates were slightly down, Average Daily Room Rates and RevPAR both increased. Also, retail sales tax collections from Hotel and Other Accommodation Services have been posting significant increases in recent quarters. OCCUPANCY RATE

AVERAGE DAILY ROOM RATE

REVENUE PER AVAILABLE ROOM (REVPAR)

2015 Year-to-Date*

80.3%

$183.08

$147.07

Total Homes Sold

179

171

-4.5%

488

449

-8.0%

16,782

18,046

7.5%

2014 Year-to-Date*

81.1%

$174.28

$141.25

Ave. Sales Price

$476,214

$554,612

16.5%

$371,622

$426,534

14.8%

$326,071

$360,778

10.6%

Change

-1.0%

5.0%

4.1%

Ave. Price/sf

$388

$438

12.9%

$320

$371

15.8%

$197

$218

10.7%

*Data through end of October 2015

Sources: City and County of Denver Office of the Controller, Colorado Comps.

Change

OFFICE

HISTORICAL OFFICE VACANCY RATE

DOWNTOWN Change

* Vacancy and average lease rates are for direct space only. Retail and industrial rates are triple-net.

VACANCY RATE*

15.0%

The residential real estate market in Downtown Denver and the City Center Neighborhoods continued showing strong growth through the end of the second quarter 2015. The total number of homes sold decreased in both areas over-the-year, reflecting continuing struggles with low inventory. The average sales price and average price per square foot for homes sold in Downtown Denver and the City Center Neighborhoods increased significantly.

2Q15

The commercial real estate market generally improved in the Downtown Denver market area between the third quarter of 2014 and 2015. The Office market posted declining vacancy rates and increasing lease rates. Retail market fundamentals were mixed in Downtown Denver, reporting declining vacancy rates but slightly higher lease rates.

3.1%

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

Total Homes Sold

DECEMBER 2015

OFFICE, RETAIL & INDUSTRIAL MARKET

Retail sales tax collections in Downtown Denver were almost 5% higher in the second quarter of 2015 compared with the prior year. Downtown’s largest industries, Restaurants and hotel/other accommodation services posted impressive gains of 9% and over 17%, respectively. A small retail sales category, Motor Vehicles and Auto Parts, posted the largest gain of 34% due to higher than normal sales by a single taxpayer.

2Q14

DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE

Sources: CoStar Realty Information, Downtown Denver Partnership, Rocky Mountain Lodging Report.


DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE

DECEMBER 2015

RETAIL SALES

RETAIL SALES DOWNTOWN Industry

BID

Share

2Q14

2Q15

Change

2Q14

2Q15

Change

Restaurants

50%

$5,137,399

$5,594,438

8.9%

$4,008,924

$4,205,702

4.9%

Hotel & Other Accommodation Svcs.

23%

$2,163,928

$2,540,126

17.4%

$1,850,867

$1,951,189

5.4%

Clothing/Accessory Stores

6%

$680,210

$701,101

3.1%

$675,622

$698,155

3.3%

Miscellaneous Stores

5%

$688,909

$566,968

-17.7%

$337,920

$337,587

-0.1%

Motor Vehicles & Auto Parts

4%

$332,698

$444,742

33.7%

$146,182

$263,295

80.1%

Manufacturing

3%

$437,852

$386,837

-11.7%

$352,121

$298,560

-15.2%

Other Categories (under 3% each of total)

9%

$1,328,729

$1,047,654

-21.2%

$902,791

$777,852

-14%

TOTAL

$10,769,725

$11,281,866

4.8%

$8,274,427

$8,532,340

** The BID contains one industrial property, which is occupied.

3Q14

3Q15

AVG. LEASE RATE* Change

3Q14

3Q15

BID

11.1%

9.8%

-1.3

$30.85

$32.57

5.6%

Downtown

10.4%

9.9%

-0.5

$31.12

$32.86

5.6%

Metro Denver

10.6%

9.6%

-1.0

$23.05

$24.07

4.4%

INDUSTRIAL BID **

0.0%

0.0%

0.0

-

-

-

Downtown

0.0%

0.8%

0.8

$11.92

$15.54

30.4%

Metro Denver

3.7%

2.8%

-0.9

$5.71

$6.81

19.3%

RETAIL BID

5.8%

6.3%

0.5

$28.19

$29.64

5.1%

Downtown

3.9%

4.6%

0.7

$28.51

$26.78

-6.1%

Metro Denver

5.6%

5.0%

-0.6

$15.72

$15.70

-0.1%

HISTORICAL OFFICE AVG. LEASE RATE $33.00 $32.00

CITY CENTER NEIGHBORHOODS 2Q14

2Q15

Change

13.5%

10.5%

2Q15

9.0%

2Q14

Change

$31.00 $30.00

12.0%

METRO DENVER

CONDOMINIUMS/TOWNHOMES

$29.00 $28.00 $27.00 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15

$26.00 25

Total Homes Sold

179

171

-4.5%

382

369

-3.4%

4,261

4,823

13.2%

Ave. Sales Price

$476,132

$554,612

16.5%

$353,168

$400,024

13.3%

$207,750

$231,616

11.5%

Ave. Price/sf

$388

$438

12.9%

$326

$375

15.0%

$177

$199

12.4%

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES 0

0

--%

106

80

-24.5%

12,521

13,223

5.6%

Ave. Sales Price

N/A

N/A

--%

$438,123

$548,813

25.3%

$366,337

$407,889

11.3%

Ave. Price/sf

N/A

N/A

0.0%

$305

$360

18.0%

$201

$222

10.4%

ALL HOMES

HOTEL MARKET

1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15

Indicators show the hotel market in Downtown Denver remains strong. While occupancy rates were slightly down, Average Daily Room Rates and RevPAR both increased. Also, retail sales tax collections from Hotel and Other Accommodation Services have been posting significant increases in recent quarters. OCCUPANCY RATE

AVERAGE DAILY ROOM RATE

REVENUE PER AVAILABLE ROOM (REVPAR)

2015 Year-to-Date*

80.3%

$183.08

$147.07

Total Homes Sold

179

171

-4.5%

488

449

-8.0%

16,782

18,046

7.5%

2014 Year-to-Date*

81.1%

$174.28

$141.25

Ave. Sales Price

$476,214

$554,612

16.5%

$371,622

$426,534

14.8%

$326,071

$360,778

10.6%

Change

-1.0%

5.0%

4.1%

Ave. Price/sf

$388

$438

12.9%

$320

$371

15.8%

$197

$218

10.7%

*Data through end of October 2015

Sources: City and County of Denver Office of the Controller, Colorado Comps.

Change

OFFICE

HISTORICAL OFFICE VACANCY RATE

DOWNTOWN Change

* Vacancy and average lease rates are for direct space only. Retail and industrial rates are triple-net.

VACANCY RATE*

15.0%

The residential real estate market in Downtown Denver and the City Center Neighborhoods continued showing strong growth through the end of the second quarter 2015. The total number of homes sold decreased in both areas over-the-year, reflecting continuing struggles with low inventory. The average sales price and average price per square foot for homes sold in Downtown Denver and the City Center Neighborhoods increased significantly.

2Q15

The commercial real estate market generally improved in the Downtown Denver market area between the third quarter of 2014 and 2015. The Office market posted declining vacancy rates and increasing lease rates. Retail market fundamentals were mixed in Downtown Denver, reporting declining vacancy rates but slightly higher lease rates.

3.1%

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

Total Homes Sold

DECEMBER 2015

OFFICE, RETAIL & INDUSTRIAL MARKET

Retail sales tax collections in Downtown Denver were almost 5% higher in the second quarter of 2015 compared with the prior year. Downtown’s largest industries, Restaurants and hotel/other accommodation services posted impressive gains of 9% and over 17%, respectively. A small retail sales category, Motor Vehicles and Auto Parts, posted the largest gain of 34% due to higher than normal sales by a single taxpayer.

2Q14

DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE

Sources: CoStar Realty Information, Downtown Denver Partnership, Rocky Mountain Lodging Report.


DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

.

Residential development in Downtown and its City Center neighborhoods continues at a brisk pace. The Downtown Denver Partnership recently released a Center City Neighborhood Residential Development Map and Profiles showing that 12,933 units were added since 2011 or are currently under construction. Almost half of these units, 6,165, are currently under construction. 26 projects are scheduled to be completed in 2016 or 2017. For more information about development in Downtown Denver, refer to the Development Maps by visiting www. downtowndenver.com/resources-downloads.

For-Sale Units

Rental Units

Number of Projects

Auraria

-

-

-

Ballpark

66

0

3

Capitol Hill

-

115

1

Central Business District

-

354

1

CPV/Denver Union Station

-

1,272

4

Curtis Park/Five Points

21

501

5

Golden Triangle

-

698

3

Highland

53

632

7

Jefferson Park

56

223

5

La Alma/Lincoln Park

-

800

1

RiNo

-

1002

4

Sun Valley

-

-

-

372

1

5,969

35

Uptown

Total

196

Sources: Downtown Denver Partnership, Metro Denver Economic Development Corporation, Denver Business Journal, Denver Post.

About This Report

News & Rankings • Sunrun, the largest dedicated residential solar company in the U.S., opened an office in Downtown Denver and plans to hire up to 800 workers in the next few years. • HomeAdvisor is relocating their headquarters to Downtown Denver and opening a sales and training center at 15th and Wazee streets. • The Urban Land Institute released their 2016 Emerging Trends report and Denver ranked as the sixthhottest commercial real estate market in the country.

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION AS OF DECEMBER 2015 City Center Neighborhood

DECEMBER 2015

• Money Magazine declared Denver to be the best city to live in the West, calling Denver a “mecca for millennials” and praising Denver’s great access to recreation. • Denver was ranked third in the U.S. for tech jobs. According to an analysis by Simply Hired, one in five job openings in Denver were technology jobs, the most of any city other than San Francisco or Seattle. • WalletHub ranked Denver the seventh most livable city in the country. • Denver has the highest percentage of women partners of any city in the country, with over 28% of partners being women. • Forbes found that Denver is the third-easiest city in the country to find a job.

This report includes the most recent quarterly data available and covers economic conditions in three areas. The first and smallest area, the Business Improvement District (BID), is the core of Downtown Denver, The second area, “Downtown,” includes the BID as well as a few surrounding districts such as the Golden Triangle. The third area, City Center Neighborhoods, includes the BID, Downtown, and surrounding residential neighborhoods such as Uptown and Highland. Data in this report was provided by Development Research Partners. For questions or comments, please contact the Downtown Denver Partnership Research Department at 303-534-6161.

DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE DECEMBER 2015 EMPLOYMENT

RETAIL SALES

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

OFFICE MARKET

HOTEL MARKET

This report contains the most recent economic indicators available for Downtown Denver and the Business Improvement District. According to the most recent indicators, Downtown Denver economic conditions continued to improve, but at a slightly slower rate than previous quarters. Office vacancy rates declined and average lease rates increased as employment expanded. Retail vacancy rates increased slightly even as consumers continued to spend at a healthy pace.

Summary

EMPLOYMENT Employment levels continued to rise in both Downtown Denver and the Business Improvement District (BID) with employment levels rising 1.4 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. The professional and business services supersector (+1,050 jobs) added the most jobs over-the-year in Downtown Denver, followed by the leisure and hospitality supersector (+800 jobs). Despite low crude oil prices, the natural resources industry continued to add jobs through end of Q1 2015.

1Q 2015

Industry

Share

1Q14

1Q15

Change

1Q14

1Q15

Change

Professional & Business Services

31%

36,381

37,434

2.9%

32,011

32,569

1.7%

Government

19%

23,384

23,038

-1.5%

21,011

20,675

-1.6%

Leisure & Hospitality

15%

17,788

18,591

4.5%

12,792

13,120

2.6%

Financial Activities

11%

14,484

13,127

-9.4%

11,249

11,601

3.1%

Natural Resources & Construction

9%

10,440

11,055

5.9%

9,675

10,440

7.9%

Information

4%

4,330

4,274

-1.3%

3,604

3,513

-2.5%

Wholesale & Retail Trade

4%

4,045

4,233

4.6%

3,047

3,225

5.8%

Education & Health Services

3%

2,663

3,129

17.5%

1,528

1,863

22.0%

Other Services

2%

2,613

2,679

2.5%

2,237

2,245

0.3%

Transp., Warehousing & Utilities

1%

1,446

1,528

5.6%

1,356

1,424

5.0%

Manufacturing

1%

857

1,024

19.5%

122

208

70.0%

Total

118,432

120,111

1.4%

98,634

100,883 2.3%

123,000

Employment Trends Downtown Denver

+1.4%

Metro Denver

+4.2%

Colorado

+3.8%

United States

+2.3%

BID

DOWNTOWN DENVER

121,000

DOWNTOWN DENVER HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT

119,000 117,000 115,000 113,000 111,000 109,000 107,000 3Q10 1Q11

3Q11

1Q12 3Q12

1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15

Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages; Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Labor Market Information, Current Employment Statistics; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Development Research Partners; Downtown Denver Partnership.


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