November Economic Update - Downtown Denver

Page 1

DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE

NOVEMBER 2014

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

News & Rankings

Residential development in Downtown and its City Center Neighborhoods continues at a brisk pace with 1,443 units created so far in 2014. Recently completed projects include 16M, AMLI at Riverfront Park, and Verve. Skyhouse Denver, one of the tallest proposed rental towers in Downtown’s history, was recently announced and will add 354 new apartments to the Central Business District when the 25 story project is completed in 2016. Another new rental tower, Eviva Cherokee, plans to break ground later this year in the Golden Triangle and will add 274 new units when it is completed. On the for-sale front there are 189 townhomes currently under construction or planned throughout the City Center Neighborhoods.

According to a recent analysis by the Census Bureau, the Denver Metro area saw the largest increase (21.4%) in citizens with college degrees between 2007 and 2012.

Denver ranked as the fourth most likely place to attract commercial real estate investment in 2015, according to a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and the Urban Land Institute.

Mayors of major cities in the United States ranked Denver as the fourthmost influential city for policy and management ideas, according to a Boston University survey.

A new book by Time Magazine ranked Denver as the sixth healthiest place to live in the country.

Spencer Ogden, a London-based international energy recruitment company, announced it will open a new office in LoDo. Denver was chosen as one of three new U.S. locations for the company.

For more information about development in Downtown Denver, refer to the Quarterly Development Map Updates at www.downtowndenver. com/resources-downloads.

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS PLANNED OR UNDERWAY AS OF NOVEMBER 2014 City Center Neighborhood

For-Sale Units

Rental Units

Number of Projects

Auraria

-

-

-

Ballpark

-

541

3

Capitol Hill

8

423

5

Central Business District

-

776

3

CPV/Denver Union Station

-

2,763

10

Curtis Park/Five Points

73

369

7

Golden Triangle

17

938

5

Highland

36

431

6

Jefferson Park

55

332

3

La Alma/Lincoln Park

-

745

2

Lower Downtown

-

-

-

Uptown

-

372

1

189

7,690

45

Total

Sources: Downtown Denver Partnership, Metro Denver Economic Development Corporation, Denver Business Journal, Denver Post.

About This Report

The Stout Street Health Center opened in September at 21st and Stout Streets. The one-of-a-kind facility will provide total health care and housing for homeless individuals. 1401 Lawrence, a 22-story office building, broke ground in October and is expected to be completed in 2016. Skookum Digital Works, a techconsulting firm, opened its first satellite office in LoDo. A report by CBRE Global Research and Consulting found that Denver has the 11th best tech-oriented office market, posting a 13.3% increase in high-tech job growth between 2011 to 2013.

This report includes the most recent quarterly data available and covers economic conditions in three areas. The first and smallest area, the Business Improvement District (BID), is the core of Downtown Denver, The second area, “Downtown,” includes the BID as well as a few surrounding districts such as the Golden Triangle. The third area, City Center Neighborhoods, includes the BID, Downtown, and surrounding residential neighborhoods such as Uptown and Highland. Data in this report was provided by Development Research Partners. For questions or comments, please contact the Downtown Denver Partnership Research Department at 303-534-6161.

DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE NOVEMBER 2014 EMPLOYMENT

RETAIL SALES

Quarterly Summary

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

OFFICE MARKET

HOTEL MARKET

This report contains the most recent economic indicators available for Downtown Denver and the Business Improvement District. Downtown Denver economic conditions remain positive moving into the end of the year. Employment growth is strong, consumers are spending at a healthy pace, and the Downtown Denver commercial real estate market achieved lower vacancy rates and higher lease rates.

EMPLOYMENT Employment levels increased in both Downtown Denver and the Business Improvement District (BID) between the first quarters of 2013 and 2014, with employment levels rising 4.5% and 1.4%, respectively. The natural resources and construction supersector reported the strongest growth, generating an additional 1,850 jobs over-the-year in Downtown Denver.

1Q 2014

Industry

+4.5%

Metro Denver

+3.6%

Colorado

+2.3%

United States

+1.7%

Share

1Q13

1Q14

Change

1Q13

1Q14

Change

Professional & Business Services

31%

34,792

36,381

4.6%

32,615

32,011

-1.8%

Government

20%

23,087

23,384

1.3%

20,007

21,011

5.0%

Leisure & Hospitality

15%

17,303

17,788

2.8%

12,865

12,792

-0.6%

Financial Activities

12%

14,225

14,484

1.8%

11,733

11,249

-4.1%

Natural Resources & Construction

9%

8,591

10,440

21.5%

8,410

9,675

15.0%

Information

4%

4,242

4,330

2.1%

3,538

3,604

1.9%

Wholesale & Retail Trade

3%

3,472

4,045

16.5%

2,834

3,047

7.5%

Other Services

2%

2,646

2,663

0.7%

1,578

1,528

-3.2%

Education & Health Services

2%

2,694

2,613

-3.0%

2,247

2,237

-0.5%

Transp., Warehousing & Utilities

1%

1,377

1,446

5.0%

1,299

1,356

4.4%

Manufacturing

1%

894

857

-4.2%

114

122

7.3%

113,323

118,432 4.5%

97,241

98,634

1.4%

Total

119,000

Employment Trends Downtown Denver

BID

DOWNTOWN DENVER

117,000

DOWNTOWN DENVER HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT

115,000 113,000 111,000 109,000 107,000 1Q10 3Q10

1Q11

3Q11

1Q12

3Q12

1Q13

3Q13

1Q13

Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages; Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Labor Market Information, Current Employment Statistics; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Development Research Partners; Downtown Denver Partnership,


DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE

NOVEMBER 2014

DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE

NOVEMBER 2014

RETAIL SALES

OFFICE, RETAIL & INDUSTRIAL MARKET

Retail sales tax collections in Downtown Denver were over 10% higher in the second quarter of 2014 compared with the prior year. Hotels & Other Accommodation Services, Downtown Denver’s second largest retail category, increased almost 40% over-the-year.

The commercial real estate market improved significantly in both the BID and Downtown Denver market areas between the third quarters of 2013 and 2014. Downtown Denver reported declining vacancy rates in both the office and retail markets, where rates fell 1.2 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points, respectively. The average lease rate for office space in Downtown Denver rose 8 percent, while the average lease rate for retail space rose 26.3 percent.

RETAIL SALES DOWNTOWN Industry

Share

BID

2Q13

2Q14

Change

2Q13

2Q14

Change

Restaurants

48%

$4,738,077

$5,137,399

8.4%

$3,759,145

$4,008,924

6.6%

Hotel & Other Accommodation Svcs.

20%

$1,556,252

$2,163,928

39.0%

$1,389,089

$1,850,867

33.2%

Miscellaneous Stores

6%

$631,450

$688,909

9.1%

$321,718

$337,920

5.0%

Clothing/Accessory Stores

6%

$714,215

$680,210

- 4.8%

$708,662

$675,622

- 4.7%

Information Producers/Distributors

5%

$511,194

$562,055

9.9%

$508,416

$387,912

- 23.7%

Manufacturing

4%

$545,269

$437,852

- 19.7%

$452,016

$352,121

- 22.1%

Motor Vehicles & Auto Parts

3%

$427,841

$332,698

- 22.2%

$240,477

$146,182

- 39.2%

Other Categories (under 3% each of total)

7%

$646,161

$766,674

18.7%

$408,698

$514,879

26.0%

Total

$9,770,459 $10,769,725

10.2%

$7,788,221

$8,274,427

6.2%

CITY CENTER NEIGHBORHOODS

2Q14

Change

2Q13

2Q14

Change

2Q13

2Q14

Change

CONDOMINIUMS/TOWNHOMES Total Homes Sold Ave. Sales Price Ave. Price/sf

169

179

5.9%

341

382

12.0%

3,688

4,261

15.5%

$468,122

$479,132

1.7%

$359,833

$353,168

-1.9%

$205,848

$207,750

0.9%

$368

$388

5.6%

$312

$326

4.4%

$172

$177

2.9%

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES Total Homes Sold

0

0

--%

104

106

1.9%

13,182

12,521

- 5.0%

Ave. Sales Price

N/A

N/A

--%

$353,834

$438,123

23.8%

$351,517

$366,337

4.2%

Ave. Price/sf

N/A

N/A

0.0%

$254

$305

20.2%

$191

$201

5.2%

ALL HOMES Total Homes Sold Ave. Sales Price Ave. Price/sf

Change

3Q13

3Q14

Change

BID

11.9%

10.9%

-1.0

$28.60

$30.82

7.8%

Downtown

11.4%

10.2%

-1.2

$28.24

$30.51

8.0%

Metro Denver

11.3%

10.5%

-0.9

$21.69

$22.69

4.6%

INDUSTRIAL BID **

-

-

-

-

-

--%

Downtown

0.0%

0.6%

0.6

$11.04

$11.92

8.0%

Metro Denver

4.4%

3.7%

-0.8

$4.90

$5.75

17.3%

RETAIL BID

6.5%

5.8%

-0.8

$21.46

$28.19

31.4%

Downtown

4.7%

3.6%

-1.1

$20.44

$25.82

26.3%

Metro Denver

6.2%

5.7%

-0.5

$15.21

$15.51

2.0%

HISTORICAL OFFICE AVE. LEASE RATE $31.00 $30.00

13.5%

$29.00 $28.00

12.0%

$27.00

10.5%

METRO DENVER

3Q14

AVG. LEASE RATE*

OFFICE

15.0%

Sales of existing condominiums and townhomes were higher through the second quarter of the year compared with last year for Downtown Denver and the City Center Neighborhoods. Total home sales in the City Center Neighborhoods, including both single-family attached and detached units, increased 9.7 percent over-the-year compared with a 0.5 percent decline throughout Metro Denver.

2Q13

** The BID contains one industrial property, which is occupied.

3Q13

HISTORICAL OFFICE VACANCY RATE

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

DOWNTOWN

* Vacancy and average lease rates are for direct space only. Retail and industrial rates are triple-net.

VACANCY RATE*

$26.00

3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14

$25.00 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14

HOTEL MARKET Indicators show the hotel market in Downtown Denver has been very strong as of September 2014. Occupancy rates, average daily room rates and RevPAR are all are higher than 2013 year-to-date levels. Also, retail sales tax collections from Hotel and Other Accommodation Services increased 33% increase over-the-year. OCCUPANCY RATE

AVERAGE DAILY ROOM RATE

REVENUE PER AVAILABLE ROOM (REVPAR)

2014 Year-to-Date*

80.5%

$170.94

$137.62

169

179

5.9%

445

488

9.7%

16,870

16,782

-0.5%

2013 Year-to-Date*

75.1%

$158.90

$119.30

$468,122

$476,132

1.7%

$358,431

$371,622

3.7%

$319,672

$326,071

2.0%

Change

7.2%

7.6%

15.4%

$368

$388

5.6%

$296

$320

8.0%

$188

$197

4.9%

*Data through end of September 2014

Sources: City and County of Denver Office of the Controller, Colorado Comps.

Sources: CoStar Realty Information, Downtown Denver Partnership, Rocky Mountain Lodging Report.


DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE

NOVEMBER 2014

DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE

NOVEMBER 2014

RETAIL SALES

OFFICE, RETAIL & INDUSTRIAL MARKET

Retail sales tax collections in Downtown Denver were over 10% higher in the second quarter of 2014 compared with the prior year. Hotels & Other Accommodation Services, Downtown Denver’s second largest retail category, increased almost 40% over-the-year.

The commercial real estate market improved significantly in both the BID and Downtown Denver market areas between the third quarters of 2013 and 2014. Downtown Denver reported declining vacancy rates in both the office and retail markets, where rates fell 1.2 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points, respectively. The average lease rate for office space in Downtown Denver rose 8 percent, while the average lease rate for retail space rose 26.3 percent.

RETAIL SALES DOWNTOWN Industry

Share

BID

2Q13

2Q14

Change

2Q13

2Q14

Change

Restaurants

48%

$4,738,077

$5,137,399

8.4%

$3,759,145

$4,008,924

6.6%

Hotel & Other Accommodation Svcs.

20%

$1,556,252

$2,163,928

39.0%

$1,389,089

$1,850,867

33.2%

Miscellaneous Stores

6%

$631,450

$688,909

9.1%

$321,718

$337,920

5.0%

Clothing/Accessory Stores

6%

$714,215

$680,210

- 4.8%

$708,662

$675,622

- 4.7%

Information Producers/Distributors

5%

$511,194

$562,055

9.9%

$508,416

$387,912

- 23.7%

Manufacturing

4%

$545,269

$437,852

- 19.7%

$452,016

$352,121

- 22.1%

Motor Vehicles & Auto Parts

3%

$427,841

$332,698

- 22.2%

$240,477

$146,182

- 39.2%

Other Categories (under 3% each of total)

7%

$646,161

$766,674

18.7%

$408,698

$514,879

26.0%

Total

$9,770,459 $10,769,725

10.2%

$7,788,221

$8,274,427

6.2%

CITY CENTER NEIGHBORHOODS

2Q14

Change

2Q13

2Q14

Change

2Q13

2Q14

Change

CONDOMINIUMS/TOWNHOMES Total Homes Sold Ave. Sales Price Ave. Price/sf

169

179

5.9%

341

382

12.0%

3,688

4,261

15.5%

$468,122

$479,132

1.7%

$359,833

$353,168

-1.9%

$205,848

$207,750

0.9%

$368

$388

5.6%

$312

$326

4.4%

$172

$177

2.9%

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES Total Homes Sold

0

0

--%

104

106

1.9%

13,182

12,521

- 5.0%

Ave. Sales Price

N/A

N/A

--%

$353,834

$438,123

23.8%

$351,517

$366,337

4.2%

Ave. Price/sf

N/A

N/A

0.0%

$254

$305

20.2%

$191

$201

5.2%

ALL HOMES Total Homes Sold Ave. Sales Price Ave. Price/sf

Change

3Q13

3Q14

Change

BID

11.9%

10.9%

-1.0

$28.60

$30.82

7.8%

Downtown

11.4%

10.2%

-1.2

$28.24

$30.51

8.0%

Metro Denver

11.3%

10.5%

-0.9

$21.69

$22.69

4.6%

INDUSTRIAL BID **

-

-

-

-

-

--%

Downtown

0.0%

0.6%

0.6

$11.04

$11.92

8.0%

Metro Denver

4.4%

3.7%

-0.8

$4.90

$5.75

17.3%

RETAIL BID

6.5%

5.8%

-0.8

$21.46

$28.19

31.4%

Downtown

4.7%

3.6%

-1.1

$20.44

$25.82

26.3%

Metro Denver

6.2%

5.7%

-0.5

$15.21

$15.51

2.0%

HISTORICAL OFFICE AVE. LEASE RATE $31.00 $30.00

13.5%

$29.00 $28.00

12.0%

$27.00

10.5%

METRO DENVER

3Q14

AVG. LEASE RATE*

OFFICE

15.0%

Sales of existing condominiums and townhomes were higher through the second quarter of the year compared with last year for Downtown Denver and the City Center Neighborhoods. Total home sales in the City Center Neighborhoods, including both single-family attached and detached units, increased 9.7 percent over-the-year compared with a 0.5 percent decline throughout Metro Denver.

2Q13

** The BID contains one industrial property, which is occupied.

3Q13

HISTORICAL OFFICE VACANCY RATE

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

DOWNTOWN

* Vacancy and average lease rates are for direct space only. Retail and industrial rates are triple-net.

VACANCY RATE*

$26.00

3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14

$25.00 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14

HOTEL MARKET Indicators show the hotel market in Downtown Denver has been very strong as of September 2014. Occupancy rates, average daily room rates and RevPAR are all are higher than 2013 year-to-date levels. Also, retail sales tax collections from Hotel and Other Accommodation Services increased 33% increase over-the-year. OCCUPANCY RATE

AVERAGE DAILY ROOM RATE

REVENUE PER AVAILABLE ROOM (REVPAR)

2014 Year-to-Date*

80.5%

$170.94

$137.62

169

179

5.9%

445

488

9.7%

16,870

16,782

-0.5%

2013 Year-to-Date*

75.1%

$158.90

$119.30

$468,122

$476,132

1.7%

$358,431

$371,622

3.7%

$319,672

$326,071

2.0%

Change

7.2%

7.6%

15.4%

$368

$388

5.6%

$296

$320

8.0%

$188

$197

4.9%

*Data through end of September 2014

Sources: City and County of Denver Office of the Controller, Colorado Comps.

Sources: CoStar Realty Information, Downtown Denver Partnership, Rocky Mountain Lodging Report.


DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE

NOVEMBER 2014

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

News & Rankings

Residential development in Downtown and its City Center Neighborhoods continues at a brisk pace with 1,443 units created so far in 2014. Recently completed projects include 16M, AMLI at Riverfront Park, and Verve. Skyhouse Denver, one of the tallest proposed rental towers in Downtown’s history, was recently announced and will add 354 new apartments to the Central Business District when the 25 story project is completed in 2016. Another new rental tower, Eviva Cherokee, plans to break ground later this year in the Golden Triangle and will add 274 new units when it is completed. On the for-sale front there are 189 townhomes currently under construction or planned throughout the City Center Neighborhoods.

According to a recent analysis by the Census Bureau, the Denver Metro area saw the largest increase (21.4%) in citizens with college degrees between 2007 and 2012.

Denver ranked as the fourth most likely place to attract commercial real estate investment in 2015, according to a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and the Urban Land Institute.

Mayors of major cities in the United States ranked Denver as the fourthmost influential city for policy and management ideas, according to a Boston University survey.

A new book by Time Magazine ranked Denver as the sixth healthiest place to live in the country.

Spencer Ogden, a London-based international energy recruitment company, announced it will open a new office in LoDo. Denver was chosen as one of three new U.S. locations for the company.

For more information about development in Downtown Denver, refer to the Quarterly Development Map Updates at www.downtowndenver. com/resources-downloads.

RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS PLANNED OR UNDERWAY AS OF NOVEMBER 2014 City Center Neighborhood

For-Sale Units

Rental Units

Number of Projects

Auraria

-

-

-

Ballpark

-

541

3

Capitol Hill

8

423

5

Central Business District

-

776

3

CPV/Denver Union Station

-

2,763

10

Curtis Park/Five Points

73

369

7

Golden Triangle

17

938

5

Highland

36

431

6

Jefferson Park

55

332

3

La Alma/Lincoln Park

-

745

2

Lower Downtown

-

-

-

Uptown

-

372

1

189

7,690

45

Total

Sources: Downtown Denver Partnership, Metro Denver Economic Development Corporation, Denver Business Journal, Denver Post.

About This Report

The Stout Street Health Center opened in September at 21st and Stout Streets. The one-of-a-kind facility will provide total health care and housing for homeless individuals. 1401 Lawrence, a 22-story office building, broke ground in October and is expected to be completed in 2016. Skookum Digital Works, a techconsulting firm, opened its first satellite office in LoDo. A report by CBRE Global Research and Consulting found that Denver has the 11th best tech-oriented office market, posting a 13.3% increase in high-tech job growth between 2011 to 2013.

This report includes the most recent quarterly data available and covers economic conditions in three areas. The first and smallest area, the Business Improvement District (BID), is the core of Downtown Denver, The second area, “Downtown,” includes the BID as well as a few surrounding districts such as the Golden Triangle. The third area, City Center Neighborhoods, includes the BID, Downtown, and surrounding residential neighborhoods such as Uptown and Highland. Data in this report was provided by Development Research Partners. For questions or comments, please contact the Downtown Denver Partnership Research Department at 303-534-6161.

DOWNTOWN DENVER ECONOMIC UPDATE NOVEMBER 2014 EMPLOYMENT

RETAIL SALES

Quarterly Summary

RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

OFFICE MARKET

HOTEL MARKET

This report contains the most recent economic indicators available for Downtown Denver and the Business Improvement District. Downtown Denver economic conditions remain positive moving into the end of the year. Employment growth is strong, consumers are spending at a healthy pace, and the Downtown Denver commercial real estate market achieved lower vacancy rates and higher lease rates.

EMPLOYMENT Employment levels increased in both Downtown Denver and the Business Improvement District (BID) between the first quarters of 2013 and 2014, with employment levels rising 4.5% and 1.4%, respectively. The natural resources and construction supersector reported the strongest growth, generating an additional 1,850 jobs over-the-year in Downtown Denver.

1Q 2014

Industry

+4.5%

Metro Denver

+3.6%

Colorado

+2.3%

United States

+1.7%

Share

1Q13

1Q14

Change

1Q13

1Q14

Change

Professional & Business Services

31%

34,792

36,381

4.6%

32,615

32,011

-1.8%

Government

20%

23,087

23,384

1.3%

20,007

21,011

5.0%

Leisure & Hospitality

15%

17,303

17,788

2.8%

12,865

12,792

-0.6%

Financial Activities

12%

14,225

14,484

1.8%

11,733

11,249

-4.1%

Natural Resources & Construction

9%

8,591

10,440

21.5%

8,410

9,675

15.0%

Information

4%

4,242

4,330

2.1%

3,538

3,604

1.9%

Wholesale & Retail Trade

3%

3,472

4,045

16.5%

2,834

3,047

7.5%

Other Services

2%

2,646

2,663

0.7%

1,578

1,528

-3.2%

Education & Health Services

2%

2,694

2,613

-3.0%

2,247

2,237

-0.5%

Transp., Warehousing & Utilities

1%

1,377

1,446

5.0%

1,299

1,356

4.4%

Manufacturing

1%

894

857

-4.2%

114

122

7.3%

113,323

118,432 4.5%

97,241

98,634

1.4%

Total

119,000

Employment Trends Downtown Denver

BID

DOWNTOWN DENVER

117,000

DOWNTOWN DENVER HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT

115,000 113,000 111,000 109,000 107,000 1Q10 3Q10

1Q11

3Q11

1Q12

3Q12

1Q13

3Q13

1Q13

Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages; Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Labor Market Information, Current Employment Statistics; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Development Research Partners; Downtown Denver Partnership,


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