Bulletin of the Rotary Club of Moreland
EDITION 16|8 MARCH 2022
THE MORELANDER
BUSINESS POST COVID - WHAT LIES AHEAD?
Alex Marchione gave us an overview and analysis of the effects of the COVID pandemic during the last two years.
Pages 3-4
Award of Excellence for Club Bulletin 2018-2019
Moreland Rotary acknowledges the Wurundjeri people of the eastern Kulin Nations on whose unceded lands we conduct our business. Moreland Rotary respectfully acknowledges their Ancestors and Elders, past, present and emerging. Moreland Rotary also acknowledges the Traditional Custodians and their Ancestors of the lands and waters across Australia where we conduct our business.
Cover: view of the Melbourne CBD (David Redfearn)
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COVID pandemic – business disruption, lasting effects on business and what lies ahead
Alex Marchione, a Pascoe Vale resident and Director in the Business Advisory and Assurance division of Pitcher Partners, a national association of independent accounting and business advisory firms, gave us an overview and analysis of the effects of the COVID pandemic during the last two years. Alex has long experience as an accountant, business adviser and analyst so is well placed to give us a picture of what has happened, the impacts and what the future may hold. While focusing principally on business impacts, he also addressed some of the societal impacts. The following is a summary of his analysis: Context Insights of the impact of COVID on business and the economy which we may be familiar with and not new to us. On 30 January 2020 the WHO declares a Global Health Emergency and on 11 March 2020 declared a pandemic. In mid March 2020 on again-off again rolling lock downs began.
The cost of COVID to our Federal budget has been nearly $500b with $300b for health support and economic stimulus and $200b in lost revenue and this doesn’t include stet debt. Jobkeeper and Federal and state grants and tax concessions were rolled out: $89b for jobkeeper, $35b on cashflow boost, $20b on Jobkeeper supplement, $52b on full capital expensing and company loss carryback programs and $25b in personal income tax and tax offsets
Coronavirus stats for Australia (not including RATs) have seen cumulative 2.7 million positive cases to date with cumulative positive cases 230 thousand to 13 December 2021 (up to the rise of Omicron). The greater figure likely to be understated for a There was a move to working and learning from home variety of reasons. Business and economic disruption: Share markets were immediately down by 30% An immediate halt on business spending and capital investment programs due to the uncertainty A buildup of cash reserves in business and households Interest rates drop to their lowest levels in living history Tourism, hospitality and retail sectors have been arguably the biggest casualties Knee jerk reactions in many industries led to redundancies and this included the financial and accounting industries. The big four shed 1,000-2,000 professional staff only to discover that they were needed more than ever so were scrambling to back fill Banks were caught short too struggling to meet retail and business loan approval demands which caused problems with the timing of many home loans
Large businesses and those with a robust IT capacity moved remotely quickly and seamlessly while small businesses struggled There was no difference in the education sector among all school categories Omicron brought new challenges with a higher level of infection and a larger proportion of the workforce catching COVID and isolating affecting sometimes up to a third of workplaces
Other industries were just the opposite and these included: Healthcare, supermarkets and their supply chain providers Logistics and distribution Gig economy IT platforms for remote education and work THE MORELANDER
Image: Forbes
TEXT: ADAPTED FROM ALEX MARCHIONE'S PRESENTATION NOTES | IMAGES: FORBES AND DAVID REDFEARN
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COVID pandemic – business disruption, lasting effects on business and what lies ahead
Property markets over the two years have provided an interesting case study.They were initially forecast to drop by 20% but that didn't eventuate with a perfect storm of low interest rates, better than expected jobless rates, a buildup of cash reserves due to a reduction in discretionary spending and an explosion in demand in regional areas due to working from home. The share market was a roller coaster reflecting what was going on in the US and other major economies with an initial 33% drop in the All Ordinaries but it is now now higher than the pre pandemic peak. None of the above takes into account the physical and mental health impacts e.g. some cancer diagnosis falling dramatically which may be because of reduced testing, elective surgery reductions and a drop in GP visits. This is a major health concern Mental health is also a growing problem across all age bands. Lasting effects on business and what lies ahead Working from home is here to stay. Better employers will allow their people to work remotely if desired otherwise they won't retain good people Commercial and office space in the CBD; there are mixed messages here with larger businesses scaling back their office footprint, retail area dropping but also an influx of many smaller operators influx to the CBD to take up the slack (cheaper to do so now) Traditional shop front retailers continue to do it tough after a a move to online shopping Tourism and hospitality are not out of the woods and people are not fully mobilised and the opening of borders will see a trickle of improvement The gig economy will grow significantly as people reassess work/life balance and opt out on Monday to Friday 9-5 working hours There will be other significant consequences such as reduced retirement savings as there is no Superannuation Guarantee C support so this is a real policy issue
The great attrition of 2022 A shift in workplace power dynamics from leaders to the staff The importance of middle managers more than ever to bridge the gap Acceleration of leadership change at the top – more adaptable and flexible leaders A pile of state and national debt that needs to be repaid and this will be intergenerational Property prices are starting to peg back with talk of interest rate rises due to higher inflation Talk of them falling off a cliff though may be scaremongering Government and financial institutions could not allow that due to levels of household debt And “blood on the streets and the trading floors” like never seen before Share markets buoyed by millions of trillions of dollars in the superannuation industry and retail investors seeking higher returns on their cash than they would otherwise get at the banks The last two years have certainly seen the biggest transformational shifts in such a short period of time that many people have ever witnessed in their working careers.
There was a report by McKinsey in February 2022 on 2020-21 COVID impacts: Employee mental health is worse with a lot of burnout More support systems are required to retain people Image: The Age
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TEXT: ADAPTED FROM ALEX MARCHIONE'S PRESENTATION NOTES | IMAGES: THE AGE AND DAVID REDFEARN
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About Rotary
District Governor's Newsletter
"Our District, Our Voice" is the monthly newsletter of District Governor Anne Reid in 2021-22. There is a lot of information about the many Rotary projects and events across our District. Simply click here to read the latest edition Members of Rotary are part of a diverse group of community and professional leaders working to address community and international service needs and to promote peace and understanding throughout the world.
Rotary districts are a way of grouping a number of clubs in a particular geographic area. The area covered quite often crosses state and even international boundaries.
Rotary District 9790 encompasses the northern Rotary clubs receive a charter suburbs of Melbourne and from the worldwide organisation - stretches north and north east of Rotary International. Victoria to the Murray River and up into parts of NSW. A Rotarian belongs to a particular Rotary Club often near his/her For more information about home or work or sometimes Rotary District 9790, click here because of the club meeting time. THE MORELANDER
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Rotary Leadership 2021-22 Rotary International: President: Shekha Mehta(Susanne) , Rotary Club of District Governor: Anne Reid , Rotary Club of Alexandra Assistant Governor Group 2: Emma Davis, Rotary Club of Moreland Rotary Club of Moreland President: Emma Davis Club Service Roles 2021-22
President President Elect Secretary Treasurer Community Service Vocational Services Membership, International Service and Assistant Bulletin Editor Rotary Foundation Youth and Assistant Secretary Club Administration and Governance Environment and Bulletin Editor Australian Rotary Health Public Relations Club History Valued members Honorary Members
Emma Davis TBA Rosemary Freeman John Hoffmann Rosemary Freeman Brian Bennett Trevor Moyle Rosemary Freeman Silvana De Pretto Nino Galgano and Lee Garwood David Redfearn OAM Rosemary Freeman Russell Stuckey and Brian Bennett Nino Galgano Elly Gardner, Jo Connellan The Hon. Kelvin Thomson, Helen Bailey, John Awler, Richard McCarthy
District 9790 /Multi District Roles 2021-22
Assistant Governor, Group 2 and Director, 2023 Convention Host Organising Committee District Community Service Chair and Australian Rotary Health District Legal Officer District Bulletin Editor and Peter Toomey Community Police Award Shine On Awards
Emma Davis Rosemary Freeman Nino Galgano David Redfearn OAM Brian Bennett
WHEN AND WHERE WE MEET:
Moreland Rotary Club meets most Wednesdays at 7.30 for a 7.40 am start. We meet at the Sorrento Bar, 801 Sydney Road, Brunswick, 3056 HOW TO GET A COPY OF THE MORELANDER:
If you would like to receive our bulletin via email each week, email our editor at: dredfearn@vtown.com.au WHERE TO SEND FORMAL CORRESPONDENCE:
Attention: The Secretary, Moreland Rotary Club, PO Box 219, Coburg, Victoria, 3058
Chartered 14 August 1996 - Sponsor Club Coburg Rotary Club | Incorporated 13 August 2019 Designed using Canva - www.canva.com
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Images by David Redfearn and logos from rotary.org unless otherwise specified.
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Upcoming events and meetings A standing invitation exists for all readers of The Morelander to attend Moreland Rotary Club meetings and some of our other events. Please let us know if you intend to join us by ringing David Redfearn on 0448 852 747 or emailing on dredfearn@vtown.com.au (click on email address). Upcoming speakers/events
2 March: TBA 9 March: Monthly Board Meeting (Chair: President Emma Davis 16 March: TBA 23 March: District Conference wrap up
Our Guest Speakers
Moreland Rotary Club invites speakers to our club both from our local community and further afield. They come from a wide range of backgrounds and are invited because they hopefully inform and stimulate our members and guests. We feel that this is of value in fostering a deeper understanding of our diverse community and even providing guidance as to the types of activites and projects our club may engage in. However the opinions expressed by our speakers do not necessarily reflect any official viewpoint of Moreland Rotary nor those of individual club members. Irrespective of this we always offer a warm Rotary welcome to all of our speakers.
click here @RotaryMoreland
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During the pandemic we met via Zoom on Wednesday mornings from 7.30-8.30 am but we NOW MEET in person at our usual venue (listed on page 7). You should contact us beforehand in case restrictions are in force but you can still join us on Zoom at any time and the link is below.
We always aim to have great guest speakers whether meeting in person or virtually! Why not join us one morning? Simply ring David on 0448 852 747 the day before to RSVP or go to: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/3068589175 just before the meeting to join in.