Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town May 2011
n
Introduction Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners (NLP) was commissioned by East Hampshire District Council to prepare a retail analysis and sequential assessment in relation to the retail developments in Whitehill Bordon outside the established or proposed town centre location.
and another foodstore on one of the potential development sites within the Whitehill Bordon Area. Section 6.0 provides analysis of the four potential development sites and their potential to accommodate future retail development and Section 7.0 sets out NLP’s recommendations and conclusions.
NLP prepared the East Hampshire District Council’s Town Centre, Retail and Leisure Study in 2007, and has recently advised the Council in relation to retail proposals in Alton. The objectives of the study are to provide: 1
Quantitative retail capacity and impact assessment of the potential retail developments on the vitality and viability of existing centres and also on planned investment i.e. the new town centre within the Whitehill Bordon Eco-town (assuming a number of scenarios).
2
Analysis of four potential development sites to accommodate future retail development in the Whitehill Bordon area including sequential analysis.
Section 2.0 provides details of the background to this report including a summary of the 2007 Retail and Leisure Study. Section 3.0 provides an overview of the national, regional and local planning policy context. Section 4.0 sets out an analysis of shopping needs within the catchment area. There are two scenarios, with and without the proposed development at Whitehill Bordon. Section 5.0 assesses the convenience retail impact of a new foodstore as part of the new town centre at Whitehill Bordon
1 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Background Town Centres, Retail and Leisure Study 2007 NLP was commissioned by the East Hampshire District Council to prepare a shopping and centres study in 2006, and the report was finalised in April 2007. The key objective of the study was to assess the need for retail development in East Hampshire District and to inform the emerging Local Development Framework. The study included an assessment of the Alton and other centres/shopping facilities within the authority area. The key relevant recommendations of this study were as follows. 1
2
The quantitative capacity analysis indicated there was potential for between 1,235 and 2,496 sq m net of convenience sales floorspace in the District between 2006 and 2016, depending on the scale and timing of residential development in Whitehill Bordon. This floorspace projection related to the District as a whole, and the study suggested it could be accommodated in small scale development i.e. small stores or extensions to existing stores. The specific floorspace projection for Whitehill Bordon was between -59 and 1,976 sq m net by 2016. The quantitative capacity for comparison sales floorspace up to 2016 was between 7,100 and 17,400 sq m gross, again depending on the scale and timing of residential
development in Whitehill Bordon. The floorspace projection for Whitehill Bordon was between 472 and 13,234 sq m net by 2016. 3
The development strategy should encourage the reoccupation of vacant shop premises within the town, district and local centres across the District for Class A1 retail use (comparison or convenience use).
4
The strategy should also seek to promote Alton and Petersfield town centres as the main comparison shopping destinations in the District. Alton and Petersfield’s town centre’s current position in the shopping hierarchy should be maintained and enhanced, and as a minimum each centre’s existing market share of expenditure should be maintained.
Since the 2007 study was prepared there have been a number of changes to retail provision across the District. These include: i
The Sainsbury store within Alton town centre has been extended, increasing the sales area from 2,390 sq m net to 3,428 sq m net (a 43% increase).
ii
The Sainsbury’s store within Liphook has been extended, increasing the sales area from 1,872 sq m net to 2,246 sq m net (a 20% increase).
iii
Marks & Spencer has occupied the former Somerfield store in Alton Iceland has occupied the vacated Woolworth premises in Alton town centre.
iv
2 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
v
The Council has granted planning permission for an Aldi food store with a convenience sales area of 900 sq m net on an edge-of-town centre site in Alton.
vi
The Council has resolved to grant planning permission subject to a S106 Agreement for a Waitrose store at Station Road in Alton (3,151 sq m gross/1,673 sq m net).
vii
The Council has resolved to grant outline planning permission subject to a S106 Agreement for a Morrison’s store at Station Road in Alton (5,360 sq m gross/2,520 sq m net).
viii
The Council resolved to refuse a planning application for a new Tesco store at Mill Lane, Alton (6,112 sq m gross/3,600 sq m net) however, the applicant has appealed against non-determination.
Whitehill Bordon Eco-town The Ministry of Defence (MoD), subject to a decision regarding the successor to the Defence Training Review (DTR), plans to leave the town from 2014, releasing around 230 hectares of forming training land and barracks. This provides a major opportunity for the towns regeneration, which must be supported by a redefinition of the towns purpose and function emphasising the need to maintain the high quality environment that is the towns unique asset.
3 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
In July 2009, Whitehill Bordon was selected as one of four projects in the UK to pilot the Eco-towns approach. East Hampshire District Council prepared a framework (the masterplan) to guide future development and avoid a piecemeal approach to land disposal and development of the sites. It proposes a strategic framework showing how growth and change could occur in Whitehill Bordon in the next 20-25 years. It presents an overall vision for the physical, social, economic and environmental improvement of the town to ensure that development takes place in a considered manner to deliver community benefits for the town as a whole. It supports the work of East Hampshire in preparing its Core Strategy.
Relevant Planning Policy b
the accessibility of the proposal by a choice of means of transport, and the effect on local traffic levels and congestion;
c
whether the proposal secures a high quality and inclusive design which takes the opportunities available for improving the character and quality of the area and the way it functions;
d
the impact on economic and physical regeneration in the area including the impact on deprived areas and social inclusion objectives; and
e
the impact on local employment.
National Planning Policy PPS4: Planning for Sustainable Growth was published on 29 December 2009 and sets out the Government’s policies for economic development, replacing PPG4, PPG5, PPS6 and parts of PPS7 and PPG13. Paragraph 10 identifies that in order to achieve sustainable economic growth, one of the key objectives is to promote the vitality and viability of town and other centres as important places for communities. Policies EC10 to EC19 provide LPAs with guidance for assessing planning applications for economic development. Proposals for all retail uses must be located in an existing centre and accord with an up-to-date development plan. Otherwise, they must satisfy the ‘sequential approach’ and the ‘significant adverse impact’ tests before their positive and negative impacts and other material considerations are assessed.
For retail uses that are not in a centre and not in accordance with an up-to-date development plan, policy EC16 identifies the following additional impact considerations: a
the impact of the proposal on existing, committed and planned public and private investment in a centre or centres in the catchment area of the proposal;
The PPS4 impact test consists of two sets of assessment criteria; one applying to all forms of economic development and the other to town centre uses only. Policy EC10.2 identifies the impact considerations for all economic development as:
b
the impact of the proposal on town centre vitality and viability, including local consumer choice and the range and quality of the comparison and convenience retail offer;
a
c
the impact of the proposal on allocated sites outside town centres being developed in accordance with the development plan;
whether the proposal has been planned over the lifetime of the development to limit carbon dioxide emissions, and minimise vulnerability and provide resilience to, climate change;
d
in the context of a retail or leisure proposal, the impact of the proposal on in-centre trade/turnover and on trade in
4 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
the wider area, taking account of current and future consumer expenditure capacity in the catchment area up to five years from the time the application is made, and, where applicable, on the rural economy; and e
if located in or on the edge of a town centre, whether the proposal is of an appropriate scale (in terms of gross floorspace) in relation to the size of the centre and its role in the hierarchy of centres.
PPS4 Policy EC17 indicates that where a significant impact has been identified in Policy EC10.2 or EC16.1 then the planning application should be refused. If the impact is not considered to be significant then the application should be determined taking into account the positive and negative impacts of the proposal and other material considerations. PPS4 Policy EC15 sets out the sequential approach to site selection for planning applications for main town centre uses that are not in a centre or in accordance with an up to date plan. Applicants are required to assess the availability, suitability and viability of sequentially preferable sites, and the operator must demonstrate flexibility in terms of scale, format, car parking and the scope for disaggregation. Policy EC5 indicates local planning authorities should also apply a sequential approach when selecting development sites during plan making. EC5.2 indicates that where a number of out-ofcentre sites are considered preference should be given to sites that will be well served by a choice of means of transport and which are closest to the centre and have a higher likelihood of forming links with the centre.
5 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
PPS4 suggests out-of-centre applicants are not required to assess other out-of-centre sites that are closer to the centre under the sequential approach. However, where an alternative development proposal emerges that would: meet the identified need; have a more acceptable impact on the town centre; be more accessible by means of travel other than the car and is more central, then the availability of that site is a material consideration for the decision maker that should be weighed against the harmful impact and benefits of the proposal. The PPS4 Practice Guidance on need, impact and the sequential approach provides further assistance on assessing impact. A staged approach has been adopted consistent with the approach set out in Appendix D of the PPS4 Practice Guidance. The Government confirmed in December 2010 that it will be publishing a simple and consolidated national planning framework that will cover all forms of development and set out national economic, environmental and social priorities. A Written Ministerial Statement dated 23 March 2011 by Rt Hon Greg Clark stated: “The Government’s top priority in reforming the planning system is to promote sustainable economic growth and jobs. Government’s clear expectation is that the answer to development and growth should wherever possible be “yes”, except where this would compromise the key sustainable development principles set out in national planning policy.”
Further to this, it states that Local Planning Authorities when deciding whether to grant planning permission should support enterprise and facilitate housing, economic and other forms of sustainable development.
i. a mix of housing types and tenures should be provided to help promote a balanced and sustainable community
The Government is intending to publish and consult on a draft of the new national planning policy framework in 2011 which will be formally introduced in Spring 2012.
iii. new green infrastructure to support local biodiversity and promote recreational opportunities
The Statutory Development Plan
v. improved access to town centre facilities, including increased modal shift from private cars to other form of transport…”
The Statutory Development Plan comprises the Regional Spatial Strategy – South East Plan 2009 and the East Hampshire Local Plan (Second Review) 2006. Policy T2 of the South East Plan seeks to prevent development which would generate significant travel demand unless there are arrangements for it to be well served by public transport. Whitehill Bordon is identified in Policy AOSR3 of the South East Plan as a new strategic development area and states: “Local development documents for East Hampshire District will allocate land and set out planning objectives for a new strategic development area at Whitehill/Bordon. This will include provision for the delivery of up to 5,500 dwellings (net), in accordance with Policy H1.
ii. new employment opportunities should be provided to support the local community
iv. new development should contribute to improved town centre facilities and services
Local Plan Policy TC2 relates to large retail uses outside town centres, including food superstores. These uses will only be permitted if six criteria are met. The two criteria relevant are: •
either by themselves, or cumulatively with other such proposals or developments, they do not adversely affect the vitality and viability of nearby town, district and local centres; and
•
they are easily accessible by car, public transport, bicycle and on foot”
With regards to the Local Development Framework, the Core Strategy Preferred Policies document was published for consultation in November 2009. With regards to Whitehill Bordon, it states (para.3.6):
Objectives should include:
6 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
“Whitehill/Bordon will have a bold town centre with a major retailer at its heart and other large units to attract more quality retailers. The town will also have a more sustainable community with a wide range of facilities that people want to improve their quality of life”
•
Around 13,000 sq. metres of office and commercial development, and an hotel
•
High density residential development above the shops. Densities should be up to 80 dwellings per hectare (scope for 580 dwellings)
Policy WH1 provides the preferred policy approach for Whitehill Bordon Policy WH10 provides details of the preferred policy approach for Shopping and Leisure Facilities. It states:
•
A public transport hub
•
New uses for the Sergeants Mess and the Sandhurst Block
•
Car Parking – this will be flexible. Once alternative modes of transport to the car are established, car parking areas may not need to be so large and other uses be accommodated.
This focuses on the existing A325 north- south corridor from Tesco, along the existing High Street (and includes Highview Business Park, the Catholic Church and Guadeloupe car park. A new east – west route is created along Budds Lane (Prince Philip Barracks). The southern side of Chalet Hill is included and the east west link from Tesco along Devon Road to the Forest Centre will be retained…
•
Flexibility over time to allow the town centre to expand
Proposals will include:
The Pre-submission Core Strategy is due to be published in November 2011 with a submission in March 2012 and adoption in late 2012.
“The Council’s preferred option is to allocate land for the comprehensive development of a new town centre shown on the proposal’s map.
•
A town park and a market square
•
30,000 square metres of retail floorspace – this will include a mix of uses including those which contribute to the evening economy (pubs, cafes, restaurants etc)
•
Leisure and recreational facilities, community and civic/cultural uses
7 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
THE FOREST CENTRE The Council’s preferred approach is to provide a new Policy specifically relating to the Forest Centre, once the details of the Masterplan are known. It will continue to provide a sustainable retail centre subject to the provisions of the Masterplan.”
A Framework Masterplan was published in June 2010 and approved in December 2010 as a material consideration when planning applications are considered. However the East Hampshire District Local Plan: Second Review remains the primary policy consideration for land use proposals.
Para. 7.27 and 7.28 of the Framework Masterplan state: “The proposed amount of retail and commercial floorspace provision within the new town centre core has been derived from the findings of the Nathaniel Lichfield (NL) Town Centre, Retail and Leisure Study for EHDC. This study assessed the capacity of the Districts’ towns to accommodate increased town centre uses, based on the existing provision, the town centre catchments and likely need arising from changes in population. It also provided guidance on the appropriate mix of other commercial uses to support retail in the district’s town centres. Around 40,000 sqm of gross, retail and commercial floorspace is proposed in the masterplan, of which 60% is retail and the remaining 40% is split between restaurants, food, takeaways, pubs (10%), offices (23%) and financial and professional services including banks (7%) following guidance in the NL study.”
8 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Retail Capacity Analysis Introduction Section 4.0 assesses the theoretical capacity for new retail floorspace within the Whitehill Bordon catchment area up to 2026. It sets out the methodology adopted for this analysis and provides a quantitative capacity analysis in terms of levels of spending for convenience and comparison shopping. All monetary values expressed in this analysis are at 2009 prices. Expenditure data for 2010 and 2011 is not currently available. The 2007 NLP study was based on 2005 prices, therefore the expenditure and turnover figures in this report are not directly comparable with the figures in the 2007 study
Catchment Definition Our quantitative assessment is based on the study area defined for the 2007 Retail Study. The study area included seven zones covering East Hampshire District as a whole. The 2006 NEMS household shopper survey results indicated that Whitehill Bordon attracts the majority of its retail trade from its immediate catchment (Zone 5), with some additional trade from the Alton and Petersfield zones (Zones 1 and 4 respectively). These three zones are relatively large and cover 17 postcode sectors. In order to assess shopping patterns relating to
9 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Whitehill Bordon and its catchment area in more detail, we have broken down the catchment area and household survey results for these three zones into individual postcode sectors. The revised catchment areas and postcode sectors are shown in Appendix A. The broken down survey results confirm Zone 5 is Whitehill Bordon’s primary catchment area, with some additional trade attracted from neighbouring postcode sectors.
Population and Expenditure We have adopted Experian’s 2011 population figures for each postcode area and projected these figures to 2015, 2020 and 2026 based on Hampshire County Council’s latest 2010 ward level population projections. Population within the catchment area is 70,057 in 2011 as shown in Table 1B in Appendix B. This population is forecast to increase to 71,628 in 2015 and 73,199 in 2020 and 75,084 in 2026. Table 1B also identifies the additional population at Whitehill Bordon as a result of the proposed residential development. The population figures for the residential development have been provided by East Hampshire Council. With the residential development at Whitehill Bordon the total population within the catchment area is forecast to increase to 72,474 in 2015, 77,049 in 2020 and 84,497 in 2026. Experian’s latest (2009) local expenditure figures for each postcode sector have been adopted. Experian Business Strategies (EBS) expenditure forecasts have been used to project expenditure to 2011, 2015, 2020 and 2026. These forecasts
show limited growth between 2008 and 2011 due to the effects of the recession. For longer term projections after 2011, Experian’s ultra long term growth rate has been adopted (i.e. 0.5% for convenience goods and 4.7% for comparison). The expenditure per capita figures for convenience goods are shown in Table 2B in Appendix B and Table 1C in Appendix C for comparison goods. The total level of expenditure in the catchment area is derived by combining the population figures in Table 1B and the per capita spending figures in Tables 2B and 1C. For both convenience and comparison spending, a reduction has been made for some but not all special forms of trading (SFT) i.e. such as mail order, e-tail (non-retail businesses) and vending machines. SFT and non-store activity is included within Experian’s expenditure estimates. SFT includes other forms of retail expenditure not spent in shops e.g. mail order sales, some internet sales, vending machines, party plan selling, market stalls and door to door selling. Some forms of SFT needs to be excluded from retail assessments because it relates to expenditure not spent in shops and does not have a direct relationship to the demand for retail floorspace. However, home shopping through retail businesses should not be excluded.
As a consequence of growth in population and per capita spending, convenience goods spending within the catchment area is forecast to increase from £130.17 million in 2011 to £134.68 million in 2015, to £140.68 million in 2020 and £148.26 million in 2026, as shown in Table 3B in Appendix B. Comparison goods spending is forecast to increase from £198.77 million in 2011 to £236.57 million in 2015, £304.60 million in 2020 and £413.11 million in 2026 as shown in Table 2C in Appendix C.
Existing Retail Floorspace Existing convenience goods retail sales floorspace within the catchment area is 13,418 sq m net as set out in Table 1A, Appendix A. This floorspace figures excludes comparison sales floorspace within food stores (1,567 sq m net within the catchment area). Comparison goods retail floorspace within the catchment area is estimated to be 14,640 sq m net as shown in Tables 2A, Appendix A. This figure is based on NLP’s site survey in 2006 and includes comparison sales floorspace within large food stores (1,567 sq m net).
For convenience goods, 4.0% is deducted at 2011, increasing to 4.7% at 2015 and 5.0% at 2020 based on Experian’s projections. For comparison goods, 9.5% is deducted at 2011, increasing to 10.4% at 2015 and 10.4% in 2020.
10 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Existing Spending Patterns Convenience Shopping The results of the household shopper questionnaire survey undertaken by NEMS in October 2006 have been used to estimate existing shopping patterns within the catchment area, with amendments to reflect changes since 2006. The household survey results are considered to be robust as there have been no significant changes in retail provision within or surrounding the catchment area since October 2006. For convenience shopping, the estimates of market share or penetration within each study area zone are shown in Table 4B, Appendix B. The level of convenience goods expenditure attracted to shops in the catchment area is £112.76 million as shown in Table 5B, Appendix B and convenience expenditure retention in the catchment area is estimated to be approximately 76%. Company average sales densities (adjusted to exclude petrol and comparison sales and include VAT) have been applied to the sales area of the large food stores listed in Table 1A, Appendix A, and a benchmark turnover for each store has been calculated. This benchmark turnover is not necessarily the actual turnover of the food store, but it does provide a helpful benchmark for assessing existing shopping patterns and the adequacy of current floorspace in quantitative terms. Estimates for comparison sales floorspace within large food stores has
11 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
been deducted from the figures in Table 1A, for consistency with the use of goods based expenditure figures. Average sales densities are not widely available for small convenience shops, particularly independent retailers. We have assumed an average sales density for small convenience shops in Alton of £4,500 per sq m net and an average sales density for other small convenience shops of £3,000 per sq m net. The total benchmark turnover of existing convenience sales floorspace within the catchment area is £119.50 million. Our assessment suggests that convenience goods expenditure attracted to the catchment area in 2011 is £112.76 million, which suggests that convenience sales floorspace is collectively trading about 6% below the benchmark turnover, -£6.74 million.
Comparison Shopping The estimated comparison goods expenditure currently attracted by shopping facilities within the catchment area is £58.78 million in 2011, as shown in Table 3C, Appendix C. This expenditure figure is based on the 2006 household survey results. As indicated above, the household survey results are considered to be robust as there have been no significant changes in retail provision within or surrounding the catchment area since October 2006 . Comparison expenditure retention within the study area is estimated to be about 28%.
Based on this expenditure estimate, the average sales density for existing comparison sales floorspace (14,640 sq m net) is £4,015 per sq m net. Company average sales densities are only available for a small selection of high street multiple retailers. The estimate turnover density (£4,015 per sq m net) is considered to be satisfactory for the type of comparison floorspace currently provided in the catchment area. Our analysis assumes that trading levels at 2011 across the catchment area are at equilibrium, i.e. there is no surplus expenditure or under-trading.
Quantitative Capacity for Additional Convenience Floorspace The level of available convenience goods expenditure in 2011, 2015, 2020 and 2026 is shown at Tables 5B to 13B in Appendix B, and summarised in Table 14B and 15B. These tables are based on two future scenarios. Scenario 1 (summarised in Table 14B) assumes no major residential development comes forward at Whitehill Bordon. The second scenario assumes major residential development will be implemented. Both scenarios assume the Aldi and Waitrose foodstores at Alton will be implemented and existing market penetration rates have been adjusted to take account of the increased convenience retail provision in Alton. As outlined in Section 2.0, the Aldi store is the only convenience commitment. There is a resolution to grant a Waitrose and Morrisons foodstore on the same site at Station Road in Alton. For this retail analysis, we have assumed the Waitrose will come forward.
The second scenario is summarised in Table 15B and assumes major residential development at Whitehill Bordon will start at 2015, and that major retail development within the settlement can increase expenditure retention in Zone 5. The total level of convenience goods expenditure available for shops in the catchment area between 2011 and 2026 for the scenario 1 is summarised in Table 4.1 below. The benchmark turnover of existing convenience floorspace has been subtracted from the estimates of available expenditure to provide surplus expenditure estimates, as shown in Table 14B, Appendix B. Table 4.1: Scenario 1 - Convenience Expenditure and Floorspace Projections
Scenario 1 – No development at Whitehill Bordon Total Expenditure Attracted to Catchment Area (£M) Expected turnover of facilities/commitments (£M) Surplus Expenditure (£M)
20112011-2015 £118.75
201120112020 £124.37
201120112026 £131.46
£143.75
£143.75
£143.75
-£25.00
-£19.38
-£12.29
-556
-447
-310
52
128
225
Sales Floorspace (sq m net) Whitehill Bordon Liphook
12 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Alton Local Shops Total Sales Floorspace (sq m net)
-1,651
-1,426
-1,141
155
194
242
-2,000
-1,550
-983
Sales Floorspace (sq m net) Whitehill Bordon Liphook Alton
The analysis indicates that, taking into account the Aldi commitment and Waitrose proposals in Alton, there is a deficit in convenience expenditure up to 2026. In theory (i.e. based on the current expenditure and population projections and no development at Whitehill Bordon) there is no available expenditure to support new food store sales floorspace in the catchment area. Scenario 2 assumes approximately 1,700 dwellings will be completed in Whitehill Bordon (3,850 people) by 2019 and 4,000 dwellings (9,413 people) by 2026. Based on this scenario the convenience floorspace projections are shown in Table 4.2 below. Table 4.1 Scenario 2 - Convenience Expenditure and Floorspace Projections Scenario 2 – With development at Whitehill Bordon Total Expenditure Attracted to Catchment Area (£M) Turnover of facilities/commitments (£M) Surplus Expenditure (£M)
201120112015
201120112020
201120112026
£125.23
£136.27
£153.63
£143.75
£143.75
£143.75
-£19.80
-£9.57
£6.52
13 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Local Shops Total Sales Floorspace (sq m net)
256
634
1,269
-269
-95
199
-1,571
-1,305
-946
103
168
269
-1,482
-598
791
Taking into account the increase in population as a result of the Whitehill Bordon development at 2026, estimated convenience expenditure is projected to exceed the benchmark turnover of the facilities in the catchment area by £6.52 million. Most of this additional expenditure is attributed to the extra population at Whitehill Bordon. The remainder is due to an increased level of expenditure retention within the catchment area if major convenience retail development was implemented at Whitehill Bordon. Within Whitehill Bordon estimated convenience expenditure is projected to exceed the benchmark turnover by £7.93 million in 2020, increasing to £15.87 million by 2026. When converted into sales floorspace requirements, based on the average benchmark sales density of the top five foodstores of £12,500 per sq m (Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons, Asda and Waitrose) there is capacity for up to 959 sq m net of new convenience floorspace in Whitehill Bordon by 2020 and 1,269 sq m net by 2026. Retail development within Whitehill Bordon would slightly
reduce the potential in other towns in the District. There is therefore limited capacity for additional floorspace elsewhere in the catchment up to 2026. The Framework Masterplan suggests that around 24,000 sq m gross of retail floorspace could be provided (60% of 40,000 sq m gross). Around 20% of this retail floorspace (about 4,800 sq m gross) will be convenience goods retailing. Based on a net to gross ratio of 70% this would provide about 3,360 sq m net sales floorspace. These figures suggest there may be an oversupply of convenience floorspace within the Framework Masterplan. The impact implications of this potential oversupply are examined in the next section.
Quantitative Capacity for Additional Comparison Floorspace The assessment of existing shopping patterns in 2011 indicates that there is a high level of comparison expenditure leakage from across the catchment area. One would expect comparison expenditure outflow to continue to large centres including Petersfield, Guildford, Basingstoke, Winchester, Portsmouth and Southampton. Major retail development in the catchment area could change existing shopping patterns and could reduce comparison expenditure leakage. Conversely improvements to comparison retailing in competing centres may increase expenditure leakage from the catchment area. We have projected the level of comparison goods expenditure available to shops in the catchment area at 2011, 2015, 2020 and 2026 as shown in
Tables 3C to 11C in Appendix C, based on 2006 penetration rates. Alton’s market share in Zone 1 has been increase from 35% to 37% to take into account the Focus store which was implemented after the household survey was carried out. The growth in comparison goods expenditure available for shops in the catchment area between 2011 and 2026 (assuming no Whitehill Bordon development) is summarised in Table 10C, in Appendix C. Future available expenditure is compared with the turnover of existing retail facilities within the catchment area in order to provide estimates of surplus/deficit expenditure in Table 4.3, based on Scenario 1 (No Whitehill Bordon development). The turnover of the non-food element of proposed commitments in Alton has been subtracted. Surplus comparison expenditure has been converted into potential new floorspace, based on an average sales density of £5,000 per sq m net at 2011 inflated at 2.0% per annum). Table 4.2 Scenario 1 - Comparison Expenditure and Floorspace Projections Scenario 1 – No No development at Whitehill Bordon Total Expenditure Attracted to Catchment Area (£M) Turnover of facilities/commitments (£M) Surplus Expenditure (£M)
201120112015 £70.38
201120112020 £91.93
201120112026 £124.39
£73.06
£80.66
£90.84
-£2.68
£10.47
£33.55
214
544
1,015
Sales Floorspace (sq m net) Whitehill Bordon
14 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Alton Liphook Grayshott Other Shops Total Sales Floorspace (sq m net)
-946
665
2,991
92
235
439
117
297
555
17
46
86
-506
1,786
5,085
Allowance is made for the turnover of existing comparison floorspace to increase in real terms in the future. Historically a growth rate of between 1% to 1.5% per annum has been widely adopted by retail planners. Trends indicate that comparison retailers historically will achieve some growth in trading efficiency. This is a function of spending growing at faster rates than new floorspace provision and retailers’ ability to absorb real increases in their costs by increasing their turnover to floorspace ratio. Allowing for this growth to be absorbed by existing retailers represents a cautious approach to forecasting future needs, and this allowance may help existing centres maintain their vitality and viability in the future. It effectively allows for existing retail outlets to increase their turnover to help them to compete with new provision. Recent information provided by Experian (August 2010) recommends modest turnover efficiency growth in the short term and higher growth rate of 2.6% per annum between 2013 and 2017. We have assumed no growth in turnover efficiency in the short term up to 2012. In the longer term we adopt a growth rate of 2% per annum, slightly lower than Experian’s
15 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
suggested rate of 2.6%. Experian’s growth rate is based on past trends during the period 1986 to 2007. During this period comparison expenditure grew rapidly (5.5% per annum based on Experian’s August 2009 Briefing Note). NLP’s adopted future expenditure growth rate is lower (4.7%) than this historic growth rate, and therefore a lower (2% rather than 2.6%) level of growth in turnover efficiency is adopted. The capacity analysis indicates that for Scenario 1 there is potential for up to 1,786 sq m net of comparison floorspace in the catchment area by 2020, increasing to 5,085 sq m in 2026. Within Whitehall/Bordon, assuming no major residential development and no change in market share, there is limited potential for additional comparison floorspace (up to 1,015 sq m net by 2026). The growth in comparison goods expenditure available for shops in the catchment area between 2011 and 2026 assuming new residential development at Whitehill Bordon and an uplift in the town’s market share can be found in Table 11C, in Appendix C and is summarised in Table 4.4 overleaf. Surplus comparison expenditure has been converted into potential new floorspace, based on an average sales density of £5,000 per sq m net at 2011 inflated at 2.0% per annum). Taking account of the major residential development at Whitehill Bordon and uplifted market share, there is potential for up to 9,723 sq m net of comparison floorspace in the catchment area as a whole up to 2020, increasing to 16,689 sq m net up to 2026.
Within Whitehill Bordon the proposed housing development could support about 9,431 sq m net by 2020 (assuming 1,700 new dwellings) increasing to 13,255 sq m net by 2026 (assuming 4,000 new dwellings). The Framework Masterplan suggests that around 24,000 sq m gross of retail floorspace could be provided and around 80% of this retail floorspace (about 19,000 sq m gross) will be comparison goods retailing. Based on a maximum net to gross ratio of 80% this would provide about 15,000 sq m net sales floorspace. The figures suggest there could be a small oversupply of comparison floorspace at 2026 if 19,000 sq m gross of comparison floorspace is implemented. The impact implications of this potential over-supply are assessed in the next sections. Table 4.3 Scenario 2 - Comparison Expenditure and Floorspace Projections Scenario 2 – With development at Whitehill Bordon Total Expenditure Attracted to Catchment Area (£M) Turnover of facilities/commitments (£M) Surplus Expenditure (£M)
201120112015 £102.18
201120112020 £137.62
201120112026 £200.94
£73.06
£80.66
£90.84
£29.13
£56.96
£110.10
7,226
9,431
13,255
Alton
-1,443
199
2,676
-171
-23
233
Grayshott
-141
70
439
17
46
86
5,489
9,723
16,689
Liss Total Sales Floorspace (sq m net)
Change since 2007 The floorspace projections differ from the 2007 Study for a number of reasons, including: •
Differing price base. This study is based on 2009 prices whereas the 2007 study was based on 2005 prices.
•
The average sales densities of food store retailers is higher in 2009 prices resulting in higher benchmark turnovers of existing stores.
•
The 2007 Study was based on 1,000 dwellings being completed at Whitehill Bordon by 2016, 3,000 by 2021 and 5,500 by 2026. This report assumes 1,700 dwellings will be completed by 2019 increasing to 4,000 by 2026. The reduction in additional population by 2026 as a result of the Whitehill Bordon development results in a reduction in the expenditure projections.
•
Additional retail commitments/proposals have come forward since the 2007 Study (Aldi and Waitrose in Alton).
Sales Floorspace (sq m net) Whitehill Bordon
Liphook
16 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Summary The retail capacity assessment in this section suggests there is limited scope for additional convenience sales floorspace in the Whitehill Bordon catchment area up to 2026 if the Whitehill Bordon Eco-town development does not come forward. If the Whitehill Bordon Eco-town development does come forward, there should be scope for a large food store in Whitehill Bordon. The projections for comparison sales floorspace in Whitehill Bordon suggest a phased approach to new development may be necessary in order to achieve the masterplan objectives. Table 4.4 provides a summary of the floorspace projections for Whitehill Bordon compared with the planned development at Whitehill Bordon Eco-town.
17 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 4.4 Bordon FloorFloorspace
Summary of Floorspace Projections for Whitehill
Existing
By 2020 Planned Dev.at Whitehill Bordon*
NLP Projected Capacity in Whitehill Bordon** 634
By 2026 Planned Dev. at Whitehil l Bordon* 2,680
Conv 4,335 1,494 (sq m net) Comp 1,147 6,198 9,431 15,496 (sq m net) Total 5,482 7,693 10,065 18,176 (sq m net) * Based on Whitehill Bordon Eco-Town Masterplan ** Projected Capacity includes Whitehill Bordon Eco-town Development
NLP Projected Capacity in Whitehill Bordon** 1,269
13,255
14,524
Retail Impact Introduction This section assesses the impact of various development options and the Framework Masterplan proposals. The Framework Masterplan proposes around 24,000 sq m gross of Class A1 retail floorspace, which is expected to be split 80% comparison goods (19,200 sq m gross) and 20% convenience (4,800 sq m gross). If the Eco-town development does not come forward, there is limited scope for additional convenience sales floorspace in the Whitehill Bordon catchment area up to 2026. The retail impact analysis is therefore based on the Scenario 2 capacity analysis which assumes that the Whitehill Bordon Eco-Town Development will come forward (i.e. approximately 1,700 dwellings completed (3,850 people) by 2019 and 4,000 dwellings (9,413 people) by 2026).
Convenience Goods Retailing The convenience goods element of the Masterplan is expected to include a large food store supported by small scale local shopping provision. A food superstore would normally provide around 2,500 sq m net (4,000 sq m gross). Building on the retail capacity analysis, we have assessed the cumulative convenience impact of a food superstore as part of the new town centre at Whitehill Bordon. We have also tested the impact of another food superstore on one of the potential development sites within the Whitehill Bordon Area.
Comparison Goods Retailing The comparison goods element of the Masterplan (around 19,200 sq m gross) is expected to have a sales area of around 15,000 sq m net. Again building on the retail capacity analysis, we have assessed the impact of this scale of development assuming a development completion date of 2015, 2020 or 2026.
Food Store Impact Analysis Trading Patterns and Turnover of Food Stores A new food superstore at the Whitehill Bordon Eco-town (or on one of the four potential development sites) is expected to have a convenience goods turnover of about £25 million (see Table 1D in Appendix D), assuming 2,000 sq m net of convenience goods sales and based on the average turnover density of the top five foodstores (Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons and Waitrose). The percentage trade draw assumed for the food stores is based on the current trade draw patterns for Whitehill Bordon as shown in Table 2D, Appendix D.
Trading Patterns in 2015 – Assuming One New Food Store The revised convenience shopping patterns with one new food superstore completed by 2015 are shown in Table 3D in Appendix D. The pattern of trade diverted from existing facilities is based on shopping patterns at 2015, the expected
18 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
trade draw of the new food store, and judgments about the propensity for the new food store to compete with other facilities.
Trading Patterns in 2020 – Assuming One New Foodstore
The one store impact results are summarised in Table 9D (column D). The highest level of impact is expected to be on Whitehill Bordon (24.5%), followed by Liphook (19.4%) and Alton 6.5%.
The revised convenience shopping patterns with one new food superstore completed by 2020 are shown in Table 5D in Appendix D. The cumulative impact results are summarised in Table 10D (column D). Impact on Whitehill Bordon is 22.5%, 19% on Liphook and 7.6% on Alton.
The Whitehill Bordon residual turnover (£25.04 million) is about 36% below the benchmark turnover of existing facilities (column H). The majority of this impact will fall on the Tesco, Co-op and Lidl stores in Whitehill Bordon. It is possible that one of the existing three food stores could close.
Trading Patterns in 2015 – Assuming Two New Food Store The revised shopping patterns with two new food stores within Whitehill Bordon at 2015 are shown in Table 4D in Appendix D. The cumulative impact results are summarised in Table 9D (column F). Impact on Whitehill Bordon is 60.4% and 36% on Liphook whilst impact on Alton is 15%. The Whitehill Bordon residual turnover (£13.14 million) is about 65% below the benchmark turnover of existing facilities (column H). This development scenario has an unacceptable significant adverse impact.
19 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
The Whitehill Bordon residual turnover (£28.61) is about 27% below the benchmark turnover of existing facilities (column H). The majority of this impact will fall on the Tesco, Co-op and Lidl stores in Whitehill Bordon. There is as reduced risk one of the existing three food stores will close when compared with 2015.
Future Trading Patterns in 2020 – Assuming Two Food Stores The revised shopping patterns with two new food stores within Whitehill Bordon at 2020 are shown in Table 6D in Appendix D. The cumulative impact results are summarised in Table 10D (column F). Impact on Whitehill Bordon is 54.3%, 32.7% on Liphook and 14.4% on Alton. The Whitehill Bordon residual turnover (£16.87 million) is about 57% below the benchmark turnover of existing facilities. This development scenario has an unacceptable significant adverse impact.
Trading Patterns in 2026 – Assuming One New Food Store The revised convenience shopping patterns with one new food superstore completed by 2026 are shown in Table 7D in Appendix D. The cumulative impact results are summarised in Table 11D (column D). Impact on Whitehill Bordon is 19.3%, 16.5% on Liphook and 7.1 on Alton. The Whitehill Bordon residual turnover (£34.84 million) is about 11% below the benchmark turnover of existing facilities (column H). There is a low risk one of the existing three food stores will close in 2026.
Trading Patterns in 2026 – Assuming Two Food Stores The revised shopping patterns with two new food stores in Whitehill Bordon at 2026 are shown in Table 8D in Appendix D. The cumulative impact results are summarised in Table 11D (column F). The Whitehill Bordon residual turnover (£23.05 million) is about 41% below the benchmark turnover (column I). These figures demonstrate that if both stores were to come forward at 2026, there is still a significant risk that the level of cumulative impact will result in store/shop closures in Whitehill Bordon.
Comparison Goods Impact Analysis Trading Patterns and Turnover Comparison goods retail shops/stores with a net sales floorspace of 15,000 sq m net at the Whitehill Bordon Ecotown is expected to have a turnover of £79.59 million in 2015 (see Table 1E in Appendix E), assuming a sales density of £5,306 per sq m net.
Future Trading Patterns in 2015 – Assuming New Development The revised comparison shopping patterns with 15,000 sq m net of new comparison sales floorspace completed by 2015 are shown in Table 2E in Appendix E. The pattern of trade diverted from existing facilities is based on shopping patterns at 2015, the expected trade draw of the new floorspace and judgments about the propensity for the new floorspace to compete with other facilities. The impact results are summarised in Table 5E. The highest level of impact is expected to come from Whitehill Bordon (£4.43 million), an impact of 40.1%. A further £6.17 million is expected to be diverted from Alton (an impact of 12.8%) and impact on Liphook is estimated to be 34.1%. The Whitehill Bordon residual turnover (£6.61) is about 32% below the benchmark turnover and Liphook’s turnover is about 25% below expected levels.
20 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
The level of trade diversion and impact at 2015 are relatively high and there is a significant risk that this scale of development will harm existing designated centres.
Future Trading Patterns in 2020 – Assuming New Development The revised comparison shopping patterns with patterns with 15,000 sq m net of new comparison sales floorspace completed by 2020 are shown in Table 3E in Appendix E. The impact results are summarised in Table 6E. The highest level of impact is expected to come from Whitehill Bordon (about 33%). Impact on Alton is estimated to be 11.4% and 27.7% on Liphook. The Whitehill Bordon residual turnover (£10.08) is about 6% below the benchmark turnover and Liphook’s turnover is about 2% above expected levels. Alton will be trading 20% above benchmark levels. The level of trade diversion and impact at 2020 should be offset by residential development and growth in expenditure between 2011 and 2020 and the risk of harm to existing designated centres is much lower than in 2015.
Future Trading Patterns in 2026 – Assuming New Development The revised comparison shopping patterns with patterns with 15,000 sq m net of new comparison sales floorspace
21 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
completed by 2026 are shown in Table 4E in Appendix E. The impact results are summarised in Table 7E. The highest level of impact is expected to come from Whitehill Bordon (about 25%). Impact on Alton is estimated to be 9.9% and 21% on Liphook. The Whitehill Bordon residual turnover (£16.69) is about 41% above the benchmark turnover and Liphook’s turnover is about 53% above expected levels. Alton will be trading 56% above benchmark levels. The level of trade diversion and impact at 2026 is more than offset by residential development and growth in expenditure between 2011 and 2026.
Summary The impact analysis suggests that the level of trade diversion as a result of one new food superstore within the Whitehill Bordon area could cause the closure of an existing food store in Whitehill Bordon if it is open and trading to full potential by 2015. However by 2020 the risk of store closure is much reduced. The cumulative impact of two new food stores at 2015, 2020 or 2026 would result is likely to result in an unacceptable adverse impact on Whitehill Bordon and surrounding centres. If the food store development does not have good links within the existing/new centres at Whitehill Bordon, there will also be an indirect impact from the loss of linked shopping trips. Shop
closures and the significant reduction in customer numbers will significantly harm the health and vitality of the existing and new town centres. The provision of 15,000 sq m net of comparison by 2015 will have a high impact on Whitehill Bordon and surrounding centres. However the impact of this scale of development by 2020 should be off set by growth in population and expenditure. Our analysis suggests that there is no need to change the retail floorspace figures outlined in the Whitehill Bordon Eco-town Masterplan as long as they are treated as maximum figures and the floorspace comes forward in a phased approach.
22 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Potential Development Sites We provide below a summary of each of the four sites identified by East Hampshire Council within the Whitehill Bordon Catchment that the Council consider may have potential to accommodate retail development in the future.
Accommodating Future Growth PPS4 Practice Guidance (December 2009) states that adopting a sequential approach to selecting sites means wherever possible seeking to focus new development within, or failing that on well located sites on the edge of existing defined centres. Only if town centre or edge of centre sites are not available will out of centre locations be likely to be appropriate in policy terms, provided that they are well served by alternative means of transport, and are acceptable in all other respects including impact (para. 6.1.). The two main policy objectives of the sequential approach are that town centre sites (or failing that well connected edge of centre sites) are likely to be the most readily accessible locations by alternative means of transport and will be centrally placed to the catchments established centres serve, thereby reducing the need to travel; and seek to accommodate main town centre
23 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
uses in locations where customers are able to undertake linked trips in order to provide for improved consumer choice and competition. In this way, the benefits of the new development will serve to reinforce the vitality and viability of the existing centre. Policy EC15 of PPS4 states that in considering sequential assessments Local Planning Authorities should: a
ensure that sites are assessed for their availability, suitability and viability.
b
ensure that all in-centre options have been thoroughly assessed before less central sites are considered
c
ensure that where it has been demonstrated that there are no town centre sites to accommodate a proposed development, preference is given to edge of centre locations which are well connected to the centre by means of easy pedestrian access.
d
ensure that in considering sites in or on the edge of existing centres, developers and operators have demonstrated flexibility in terms of scale, format, car parking and the scope for disaggregation.
The checklist for adopting the sequential approach as set out in paragraph 6.52 of the PPS4 Practice Guidance (December 2009) is as follows:
1
What is the scale and form of development needed?
2
Is the need ‘location specific’ or even ‘site specific’, or is it more generalised?
3
Are the PSA and wider town centre properly defined in the development plan?
4
How should the site/proposal in question be defined? Is it ‘in centre’, ‘edge of centre’ or ‘out of centre’?
5
Have all more central opportunities been considered/identified?
6
Have they been thoroughly tested, having regard to their suitability, viability and availability having regard to the identified need/demand and the timescale over which which it arises?
7
Has this assessment adopted a sufficiently flexible approach?
8
Has the potential to overcome any obstacles to the availability of more central sites been discussed with the LPA?
1
Likely availability for development; categorised as follows: -
Short term – up to 2015
-
Medium term – up to 2020
-
Long term – up to 2026
2
Land assembly, assembly categorised as follows: -
no land assembly required or in single ownership
-
some land assembly required
-
difficult land assembly – in multiple ownership and where the willingness of all owners to develop is uncertain.
3
Sequential approach, approach categorised as follows: -
Within the designated primary shopping area
-
Edge of centre with good linkages to the town centre – within 100 metres of the primary shopping area
-
Peripheral edge-of-centre site between 100 and 200 metres from the primary shopping area
-
Potential Development Opportunities
Out-of-centre – over 300 metres from the primary shopping area
4
Commercial potential for retail development and the most likely form of development, categorised as follows:
The four potential development sites identified by East Hampshire District Council have been assessed against the following factors:
-
-
Prime site – with the best prospects of attracting a developer and occupiers Reasonable site – which should be attractive to some, if not all developers/occupiers.
24 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
-
5
Secondary site – which may generate limited demand or only demand for a specific kind of use. Potential scope to accommodate additional retail floorspace (net increase) categorised as follows:
-
Small scale – up to 1,000 sq m net
-
Medium scale – over 1,000 to 2,500 sq m net
-
Large Scale – over 2,500 sq m net.
6
Development constraints inc. existing allocations: allocations
-
Limited evidence of any constraints on development
-
Some development constraints but not insurmountable
-
Development constraints that may be costly of difficult to overcome.
7
Alternative uses: uses
-
Retail likely to be the preferred use
-
Other proposed uses such as residential, community or employment uses may be preferable to retail uses
-
Retention of existing use may be preferable to retail use.
8
Access: Access
-
Existing access and servicing available
-
New access can readily be provided
-
New access may be costly and difficult to provide.
25 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Below we examine each site against the above criteria. It should be noted that at this stage the analysis does not include detailed appraisals of development constraints, land ownership and potential development costs.
Table 6.1
Potential Development Sites: Assessment Against Criteria
Criteria
Viking Park Park (1)
Louisburg Barracks (2)
Bordon Trading Estate (3)
Woolmer Trading Estate (4)
1. Availability
Short term
Short to Medium term
Medium term
2. Land Assembly
In single ownership
In single ownership
Unknown
Individual plots - Short to Medium Whole site - Long term Difficult land assembly
3. Sequential Approach
Out of Centre
Out of Centre
Out of Centre
Edge of Centre
4. Commercial Potential
Prime Site
Reasonable Site
Secondary Site
Prime Site
5. Scope to Accommodate Retail Development 6. Development Constraints
Large Scale
Large Scale
Large Scale
Large Scale
Allocated for industry/business/leisure uses and identified in Masterplan for business/leisure/residential. Other proposed uses such as residential, community of employment uses may be preferable to retail uses. Existing Access and servicing available.
Identified in Masterplan for Employment use. Out-ofcentre location not the most accessible location.
Masterplan retains site as Employment use. Out-of-centre location not the most accessible location.
Masterplan retains site as Employment use.
Other proposed uses such as residential, community of employment uses may be preferable to retail uses. New access can readily be provided.
Retention of existing use may be preferable to retail use.
Retention of existing use may be preferable to retail use.
Existing Access and servicing available.
Existing Access and servicing available.
7. Alternative Uses
8. Access Access
26 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Viking Park Overview Viking Park is located to the south of Chalet Hill/High Street Local Centre, approximately 450 metres from the primary shopping frontage (from the northern end of the site). The main access to the site is off the A325 (Petersfield Road/High Street). . We understand the whole site is owned by Viking Properties. The northern part of the site is allocated in the Local Plan (2006) for industry and business uses and the southern part of the site is allocated for leisure, culture and hotel uses. The Whitehill Bordon Opportunity Masterplan (2010) identifies the site for a mix of employment, commercial leisure and residential with a new road through the middle of the site. There are two existing uses on the site, a pub (The Woodlark) with associated car parking and Bobby’s Food (food distributor). The majority of the site is vacant and has been for over 10 years. Outline planning permission was granted in 1999 for employment and leisure use on the site (8,000 sq m of B1, B2 and B8 floorspace and 5,110 sq m of C1 and D2 floorspace).
Analysis Viking Park could accommodate edge of centre retail development depending on the precise location, but the site would not be well connected to the existing centres (Chalet Hill and Forest Centre) by means of easy pedestrian access. Retail use on the Viking Park site is therefore not accordance with Policy TC2 of the Local Plan or Policy EC15.1 of PPS4. As noted above, Policy EC15.1.c states that "where it has been demonstrated that there are no town centre sites to accommodate a proposed development, preference is given to edge of centre locations which are well connected to the centre by means of easy pedestrian access". Sequentially, the new town centre next to High Street- Chalet Hill and at Prince Philip Barracks represents a sequentially preferable edge of centre location which will be well connected to the existing Chalet Hill Centre. The site is allocated for industry/business/leisure uses in the Local Plan and identified in the Whitehill Bordon Eco-town Masterplan (which is a material consideration when determining planning applications) for business/leisure/residential. Large scale retail development would therefore not be appropriate on this site as it would not be in accordance with Local Plan policy or the Masterplan. The site is also located at the southern edge of the proposed Whitehill Bordon Eco-town some distance from the main new residential area. It would therefore not have the same ability to
27 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
serve the existing and proposed residential population as the proposed new town centre at Prince Phillip Barracks.
Louisburg Barracks Overview Louisburg Barracks is located to the north of Whitehill Bordon approximately 1.5 kilometres from the Chalet Hill/High Street Local Centre primary shopping frontage. The main access to the site is off the B3002 (Station Road). The site contains a number of 2 storey buildings (barracks). We understand the site is currently owned by the Ministry of Defence but is currently vacant. The site is not allocated in the Local Plan (2006) and the Whitehill Bordon Opportunity Masterplan (2010) identifies the site for a mixed use neighbourhood with predominantly employment use along with some residential use and community facilities.
Analysis Louisburg Barracks is in an out of centre location. The site is located at the northern edge of the proposed Whitehill Bordon Eco-town some distance from the main area of new residential development. It would therefore not have the same ability to serve the existing and proposed residential population as the proposed new town centre at Prince Phillip Barracks.
Sequentially, the new town centre next to High Street- Chalet Hill and at Prince Philip Barracks represents a sequentially preferable edge of centre location which will be well connected to the existing Chalet Hill Centre. The site is allocated for predominantly employment use in the Masterplan (which is a material consideration when determining planning applications) and therefore large scale retail development would not be in accordance with the Masterplan.
Bordon Trading Estate Overview Bordon Trading Estate is located to the north west of Whitehill Bordon, approximately 2 kilometres from the Chalet Hill/High Street Local Centre primary shopping frontage. The trading estate is located on Old Station Way. The site is not allocated within the Local Plan 2006 and the Whitehill Bordon Opportunity Masterplan (2010) retains the site within its existing employment use.
Analysis Bordon Trading Estate is in an out of centre location. As for, Louisburg Barracks, the new town centre next to High StreetChalet Hill and at Prince Philip Barracks represents a
28 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
sequentially preferable edge of centre location which will be well connected to the existing Chalet Hill Centre.
Analysis
The site is located at the north western edge of the proposed Whitehill Bordon Eco-town some distance from the existing residential population. It would therefore not have the same ability to serve the existing and proposed residential population as the proposed new town centre at Prince Phillip Barracks.
Woolmer Trading Estate could accommodate edge of centre retail development and would be well connected with the Chalet Hill/High Street Local Centre by means of easy pedestrian access. However, sequentially, the new town centre next to High Street- Chalet Hill and at Prince Philip Barracks represents a sequentially preferable edge of centre location as it has better connections with the existing Chalet Hill Centre.
Woolmer Trading Estate Overview Woolmer Trading Estate is located to the south of Chalet Hill Local Centre with the access to the trading estate approximately 50 metres from the primary shopping frontage. The estate is located on Woolmer Way and the main access to the site is off the A325 (High Street). We understand that there are various leases on the trading estate and that East Hampshire Council own part of the freehold. There are some voids on the trading estate and a number of leases expire shortly, however, the site as a whole is unlikely to be available in the short to medium term. The Woolmer Trading Estate is not allocated within the Local Plan (2006) and the Whitehill Bordon Opportunity Masterplan (2010) retains the site within its existing employment use.
29 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Further to this, the site is currently in employment use with the majority of units occupied. Some plots may become available in the short to medium term, however, we understand the site as whole is unlikely to be available until the long term and would involve a complex land assembly.
Summary The four sites identified by East Hampshire Council have been assessed to see if they have the potential to accommodate large scale retail development and if they are sequentially preferable to the proposed new town centre next to High Street- Chalet Hill and at Prince Philip Barracks. Our analysis concludes that sequentially, the new town centre represents a sequentially preferable edge of centre location and has the ability to serve the highest proportion of existing and proposed residential development when compared to the four other sites.
Three of the four sites (Viking Park, Louisburg Barracks and Bordon Trading Estate) would not be well connected to the existing centres (Chalet Hill and Forest Centre) by means of easy pedestrian access. Retail uses on these three sites would not be in accordance with Policy TC2 of the Local Plan or Policy EC15.1 of PPS4. Woolmer Trading Estate could be well connected to existing centres but the new town centre is still sequentially preferable and the Trading Estate is unlikely to become available in the short to medium term (up to 2020).
30 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Conclusions and Recommendations Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners (NLP) was commissioned by East Hampshire District Council to prepare a retail analysis and sequential assessment in relation to the retail developments in Whitehill Bordon outside the established or proposed town centre location.
Retail Capacity Analysis The retail capacity analysis suggests there is limited scope for additional convenience sales floorspace in the Whitehill Bordon catchment area up to 2026 if the Whitehill Bordon residential development does not come forward. If the Whitehill Bordon residential development does come forward (4,000 dwellings by 2026), there is theoretical capacity for 1,269 sq m net of convenience sales floorspace in Whitehill Bordon (1,812 sq m gross based on a 70% net to gross ratio) by 2026. The projection for comparison sales floorspace in Whitehill Bordon is 1,015 sq m net by 2026 assuming no residential development. If residential development comes forward then the 2026 projection is 13,255 sq m net (17,673 sq m gross based on a 75% net to gross ratio). The proposed new town centre should be linked to the delivery of additional dwellings and employment uses.
31 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
It should be noted that major retail development at Whitehill Bordon could change existing shopping patterns and could reduce c expenditure leakage. Conversely improvements to retailing in competing centres may increase expenditure leakage from the study area. Development in competing towns, for example Alton, Peterborough, Farnham, Aldershot, Guildford and Winchester, will limit the ability of shopping facilities in Whitehill Bordon to increase their market share of expenditure.
Retail Impact Food Store Development The impact analysis suggests that the level of trade diversion as a result of one new food superstore within the Whitehill Bordon area is likely to be acceptable and that this food store could be completed around 2020, without having a long term harmful impact. The cumulative impact of two new food stores on convenience facilities within Whitehill Bordon will result in store/shop closures and may also result in the closure of stores/shops within Alton Town Centre. Even if both stores were to come forward at 2026, the cumulative impact could still result in shop/store closures in Whitehill Bordon. If a second new store food store does not have good links within the existing/new
centres at Whitehill Bordon, there will also be an indirect impact from the loss of linked shopping trips. Shop closures and the significant reduction in customer numbers will significantly harm the health and vitality of the town centre. A second food store will be contrary to Policy TC2 of the Local Plan and Policies EC16 and EC17 of PPS4.
Non-Food Development The impact figures suggest the development of 15,000 sq m net of comparison floorspace by 2020 is unlikely to have a significant adverse impact.
preferable and the whole site is unlikely to become available in the short to medium term (up to 2020). If the proposed new centre development was to come forward in 2015-16, (after the MoD announcement /vacation and availability of land) the priority should be for the town centre uses at the location proposed by the Masterplan which is now a material consideration. Retail use (food retail or other major retail) on one of the four potential development sites in addition to the proposed new town centre would undermine viability of the new town centre and/or existing facilities in Whitehill Bordon and surrounding centres, and would be contrary to the Masterplan.
Potential Development Sites In sequential terms, the new town centre is the preferable location for retail development. It is in an edge of centre location and has the ability to serve the highest proportion of existing and proposed residential development when compared to the four other sites. If it comes forward, the new town centre will also be supported by necessary improvements to the public transport infrastructure. Three of the four sites (Viking Park, Louisburg Barracks and Bordon Trading Estate) would not be well connected to the existing centres (Chalet Hill and Forest Centre) by means of easy pedestrian access. Retail use on these sites would not be in accordance with Policy TC2 of the Local Plan or Policy EC15.1 of PPS4. Woolmer Trading Estate would be well connected to existing centres but the new town centre is still sequentially
32 Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Appendix A: Catchment Area Plan and Existing Retail Facilities
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 1A - Benchmark Convenience Turnover (2009 Prices)
Centre/Store Whitehill Bordon Tesco, High St Lidl, Pinehill Road Co-op, Forest Centre Whitehill Bordon Local Shops Whitehill Bordon Total Liphook Sainsbury's, Midhurst Road Liphook Local Shops Liphook Total Alton Town Centre Sainsbury Marks & Spencer Co-op Iceland Other Alton Town Centre Alton Town Centre Total Local Centres/Other Shops Tesco Express, Lower Mead, Liss Other Liss Tesco Express, Headley Road, Grayshott Co-op, Headley Road, Grayshott Other Grayshott Headley Lindford Tesco Ansty Lane Alton TOTAL
Net Sales Floorspace Sq M
Convenience Sales Floorspace %
Convenience Floorspace Sq M Net
Turnover Density £ per Sq M
Total Convenience Turnover £M
1,698 1,200 1,468 263 4,629
95% 85% 98% 100%
1,613 1,020 1,439 263 4,335
£12,948 £4,668 £8,959 £3,000
£20.89 £4.76 £12.89 £0.79 £39.33
2,246 140 2,386
85% 100%
1,909 140 2,049
£12,359 £3,000
£23.59 £0.42 £24.01
3,428 845 115 500 316 5,204
75% 95% 95% 95% 100%
2,571 803 109 475 316 4,274
£12,359 £11,051 £8,959 £6,874 £4,500
£31.77 £8.87 £0.98 £3.27 £1.42 £46.31
182 195 211 214 171 42 69 115 13,418
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95%
182 195 211 214 171 42 69 109 11,851
£12,948 £3,000 £12,948 £8,959 £3,000 £3,000 £3,000 £12,948
£2.36 £0.59 £2.73 £1.92 £0.51 £0.13 £0.21 £1.41 £119.50
Sources: IGD Food Store Directory Experian Goad NLP Site Survey 2006 Verdict Report on Grocery Retailers
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 2A - Comparison Floorspace Town Centre
Net Sales Floorspace Sq M
Whitehill Bordon Forest Centre Comparison Shops Chalet Hill/High Street Comparison Shops Whitehill Comparison shops Food store comparison sales Total Town Centre Liphook Centre comparison shops Food store comparison sales Total Town Centre Alton Town centre comparison shops Focus DIY, Alton Food store comparison sales Total Town Centre Local Centres Grayshott Headley Lindford Liss Total Local Centres TOTAL
606 227 20 294 1,147 738 337 1,075 6,816 3,038 930 10,784 1,096 48 100 390 1,634 14,640
Source: NLP Site Survey 2006
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 3A - Convenience Floorspace Commitments/Proposals and Benchmark Turnover (2009 Prices) Store
Net Sales Floorspace Convenience Sales Convenience Floorspace (sq m) Floorspace Sq m net
Commitments Aldi Turk Street Commitments Total Proposals Waitrose, Station Road Morrisons, Station Road Tesco, Mill Lane Proposals Total
Turnover Density (£ per sq m)
Total Convenience Turnover (£M)
1,125 153,890
80%
900 137,830
£7,094
£6.38 £1,316.04
1,673 2,520 3,600 3,600
n/a n/a 70%
1,606 2,268 2,520 2,520
£11,126 £12,689 £12,948
£17.87 £28.78 £32.63 £79.28
Source: East Hampshire District Council
Table 4A - Comparison Floorspace Commitments and Benchmark Turnover (2009 Prices) Store
Comparison Net Comparison Turnover Density (£ per Floorspace Gross (sq Floorspace (sq m) sq m) m)
Commitments Aldi Turk Street Four retail warehouses, Mill Lane Commitments Total Proposals Waitrose, Station Road Morrisons, Station Road Tesco, Mill Lane Proposals Total
n/a 4,022 n/a
225 3,200 3,425
£5,698 £2,719
£1.28 £8.70 £9.98
n/a n/a n/a n/a
67 252 1,080 1,399
£10,498 £7,007 £8,211
£0.70 £1.77 £8.87 £11.34
Sources: East Hampshire District Council
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Total Comparison Turnover (£M)
Appendix B: Convenience Retail Assessment
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 1B: Population Projections NLP Study Zone Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
Postal Sector GU34 1 GU34 2 GU34 3 GU34 4 GU33 6 GU33 7 GU26 6 GU30 7 GU35 0 GU35 8 GU35 9
TOTAL Zone 5 - Additional Population at Whitehill Bordon
2011 6,070 10,433 2,611 4,032 1,877 6,285 7,110 9,496 11,259 4,924 5,960 70,057 n/a
2015 6,733 10,377 2,601 4,307 1,811 6,289 7,342 10,151 11,165 4,895 5,959 71,628 846
2020 7,395 10,321 2,591 4,581 1,745 6,292 7,573 10,806 11,071 4,865 5,957 73,199 3,850
* Based on Masterplan - assumes 1,700 dwellings completed by 2019 and 4,000 by 2026.
Sources:
Experian Population for 2011. Hampshire County Council 2010 based ward population projections ONS 2008 District Population Projections
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
2026 8,190 10,254 2,579 4,911 1,666 6,297 7,851 11,592 10,959 4,830 5,956 75,084 9,413
Table 2B: Convenience Goods Expenditure Per Capita (2009 Prices) Expenditure Per Capita
Postal Sector
Zone 1 - Alton
GU34 GU34 GU34 GU34 GU33 GU33 GU26 GU30 GU35 GU35 GU35
Zone 4 - Petersfield Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
1 2 3 4 6 7 6 7 0 8 9
2011
2015
2020
2026
£1,868 £1,755 £2,112 £1,840 £1,901 £1,857 £1,952 £1,852 £1,690 £2,080 £1,948
£1,890 £1,776 £2,136 £1,862 £1,923 £1,879 £1,975 £1,873 £1,710 £2,104 £1,971
£1,931 £1,815 £2,183 £1,903 £1,965 £1,921 £2,018 £1,915 £1,747 £2,151 £2,014
£1,984 £1,864 £2,243 £1,954 £2,019 £1,973 £2,073 £1,966 £1,795 £2,209 £2,069
Growth 2011-2015 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Growth 2011-2020 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%
Growth 2011-2026 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2%
Sources: Experian local estimates of 2009 convenience goods expenditure per capita Excluding special forms of trading - 4.0% in 2011, -4.7 in 2015 and -5.0% in 2020. Experian Business Strategies - forecast annual growth rates for 2011 to 2012 (0% and 0.4%) Experian Business Strategies - ultra long term growth rate adopted beyond 2012 (0.5% per annum)
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 3B: Total Available Convenience Goods Expenditure (£M - 2009 Prices) Zone Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
GU34 1 GU34 2 GU34 3 GU34 4 GU33 6 GU33 7 GU26 6 GU30 7 GU35 0 GU35 8 GU35 9
Total Zone 5 - additional expenditure at Whitehill /Bordon Sources:
2011
2015
2020
2026
£11.34 £18.31 £5.51 £7.42 £3.57 £11.67 £13.88 £17.59 £19.03 £10.24 £11.61 £130.17 n/a
£12.72 £18.43 £5.56 £8.02 £3.48 £11.82 £14.50 £19.01 £19.09 £10.30 £11.74 £134.68 £1.63
£14.28 £18.73 £5.66 £8.72 £3.43 £12.09 £15.28 £20.69 £19.34 £10.47 £12.00 £140.68 £7.58
£16.25 £19.11 £5.78 £9.60 £3.36 £12.42 £16.28 £22.79 £19.67 £10.67 £12.32 £148.26 £19.04
Table 1B and Table 2B
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Growth 2011-2015 12.2% 0.7% 0.7% 8.1% -2.4% 1.2% 4.5% 8.1% 0.3% 0.5% 1.2% 3.5%
Growth 2011-2020 25.9% 2.3% 2.6% 17.5% -3.9% 3.6% 10.1% 17.7% 1.7% 2.2% 3.3% 8.1%
Growth 2011-2026 43.3% 4.4% 4.9% 29.3% -5.7% 6.4% 17.3% 29.6% 3.4% 4.2% 6.1% 13.9%
Table 4B: Centre/Facilities Tesco, High Street, Bordon Lidl, Pinehill Road Co-op, Forest Centre Whitehill Bordon Local Shops Whitehill Bordon Sub-Total Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outside District Other Sub-Total TOTAL Source:
Convenience Shopping Penetration Rates 2011 Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill/Bordon
3% 1% 0% 0% 4% 0% 69% 8% 81% 6% 0% 3% 10%
3% 4% 0% 0% 7% 15% 2% 18% 42% 53% 1% 0% 4%
24% 1% 12% 1% 38% 25% 5% 7% 75% 4% 8% 3% 10%
19% 100%
58% 100%
25% 100%
% Inflow 10% 5% 5% 2% n/a 15% 25% 2% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Market shares based on NEMS household survey 2006
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 5B Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2011 Tesco, High Street, Bordon Lidl, Pinehill Road Co-op, Forest Centre Whitehill Bordon Local Shops Whitehill Bordon Sub-Total Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow Other Sub-Total Market Share Total
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Convenience Expenditure 2011 (£ Million) Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill/Bordon
% Inflow
£42.58 £1.28 £0.43 £0.00 £0.00 £1.70 £0.00 £29.38 £3.41 £34.49 £2.55 £0.00 £1.28 £4.26 £8.09 £42.58
£15.24 £0.46 £0.61 £0.00 £0.00 £1.07 £2.29 £0.30 £2.74 £6.40 £8.08 £0.15 £0.00 £0.61 £8.84 £15.24
£72.35 £17.36 £0.72 £8.68 £0.72 £27.49 £18.09 £3.62 £5.06 £54.26 £2.89 £5.79 £2.17 £7.23 £18.09 £72.35
n/a £2.12 £0.09 £0.46 £0.01 £2.69 £3.60 £11.10 £0.23 £17.61 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total Expenditure £130.17 £21.22 £1.85 £9.14 £0.74 £32.95 £23.97 £44.40 £11.44 £112.76 £13.53 £5.94 £3.45 £12.10 £35.02 n/a
Table 6B: Centre/Facilities Tesco, High Street, Bordon Lidl, Pinehill Road Co-op, Forest Centre Whitehill Bordon Local Shops Whitehill Bordon Sub-Total Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outside District Other Sub-Total TOTAL Source:
Convenience Shopping Penetration Rates 2015 (With Waitrose and Aldi) Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill/Bordon
3% 1% 0% 0% 4% 0% 71% 8% 83% 5% 0% 3% 9%
3% 4% 0% 0% 7% 15% 3% 18% 43% 52% 1% 0% 4%
23% 1% 11% 1% 36% 25% 7% 7% 75% 4% 8% 3% 10%
17% 100%
57% 100%
25% 100%
% Inflow 10% 5% 5% 2% n/a 15% 31% 2% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Market shares based on NEMS household survey 2006
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 7B Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2015 Tesco, High Street, Bordon Lidl, Pinehill Road Co-op, Forest Centre Whitehill Bordon Local Shops Whitehill Bordon Sub-Total Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow Other Sub-Total Market Share Total
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Convenience Expenditure 2015 (£ Million) Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill/Bordon
% Inflow
£44.73 £1.34 £0.45 £0.00 £0.00 £1.79 £0.00 £31.76 £3.58 £37.12 £2.24 £0.00 £1.34 £4.03 £7.60 £44.73
£15.30 £0.46 £0.61 £0.00 £0.00 £1.07 £2.29 £0.46 £2.75 £6.58 £7.96 £0.15 £0.00 £0.61 £8.72 £15.30
£74.65 £17.17 £0.75 £8.21 £0.75 £26.87 £18.66 £5.23 £5.23 £55.99 £2.99 £5.97 £2.24 £7.46 £18.66 £74.65
n/a £2.11 £0.10 £0.43 £0.02 £2.65 £3.70 £12.48 £0.24 £19.06 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total Expenditure £134.68 £21.08 £1.90 £8.64 £0.76 £32.38 £24.66 £49.92 £11.79 £118.75 £13.18 £6.12 £3.58 £12.10 £34.99 n/a
Table 8B: Centre/Facilities Whitehill Bordon Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outside District Other Sub-Total TOTAL Source:
Future Convenience Penetration Rates (Assuming Major Development at Whitehill Bordon) Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill/Bordon
6% 0% 69% 8% 83% 5% 0% 3% 9%
10% 15% 3% 18% 46% 49% 1% 0% 4%
48% 20% 5% 6% 79% 3% 7% 2% 9%
17% 100%
54% 100%
21% 100%
% Inflow 4% 15% 31% 2% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Market shares based on NEMS household survey 2006
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 9B Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2015 Whitehill Bordon Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow Other Sub-Total Market Share Total
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Convenience Expenditure 2015 (£ Million) with Ecotown Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill/Bordon
% Inflow
£44.73 £2.68 £0.00 £30.86 £3.58 £37.12 £2.24 £0.00 £1.34 £4.03 £7.60 £44.73
£15.30 £1.53 £2.29 £0.46 £2.75 £7.04 £7.50 £0.15 £0.00 £0.61 £8.26 £15.30
£76.28 £36.61 £15.26 £3.81 £4.58 £60.26 £2.29 £5.34 £1.53 £6.86 £16.02 £76.28
n/a £1.70 £3.10 £15.79 £0.22 £20.81 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total Expenditure £136.31 £42.53 £20.65 £50.92 £11.13 £125.23 £12.02 £5.49 £2.87 £11.50 £31.88 n/a
Table 10B Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2020 Tesco, High Street, Bordon Lidl, Pinehill Road Co-op, Forest Centre Whitehill Bordon Local Shops Whitehill Bordon Sub-Total Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow Other Sub-Total Market Share Total
Convenience Expenditure 2020 (£ Million) Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
£47.39 £1.42 £0.47 £0.00 £0.00 £1.90 £0.00 £33.64 £3.79 £39.33 £2.37 £0.00 £1.42 £4.26 £8.06 £47.39
£15.52 £0.47 £0.62 £0.00 £0.00 £1.09 £2.33 £0.47 £2.79 £6.67 £8.07 £0.16 £0.00 £0.62 £8.84 £15.52
£77.78 £17.89 £0.78 £8.56 £0.78 £28.00 £19.45 £5.44 £5.44 £58.34 £3.11 £6.22 £2.33 £7.78 £19.45 £77.78
n/a £2.20 £0.10 £0.45 £0.02 £2.76 £3.84 £13.18 £0.25 £20.03 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total Expenditure £140.68 £21.97 £1.97 £9.01 £0.79 £33.74 £25.62 £52.74 £12.27 £124.37 £13.55 £6.38 £3.76 £12.66 £36.35 n/a
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 11B Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2020 Whitehill Bordon Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow Other Sub-Total Market Share Total
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Convenience Expenditure 2020 (£ Million) with Ecotown Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
£47.39 £2.84 £0.00 £32.70 £3.79 £39.33 £2.37 £0.00 £1.42 £4.26 £8.06 £47.39
£15.52 £1.55 £2.33 £0.47 £2.79 £7.14 £7.60 £0.16 £0.00 £0.62 £8.38 £15.52
£85.36 £40.97 £17.07 £4.27 £5.12 £67.44 £2.56 £5.98 £1.71 £7.68 £17.93 £85.36
n/a £1.89 £3.42 £16.82 £0.24 £22.37 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total Expenditure £148.26 £47.26 £22.82 £54.25 £11.94 £136.27 £12.53 £6.13 £3.13 £12.57 £34.36 n/a
Table 12B Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2026 Tesco, High Street, Bordon Lidl, Pinehill Road Co-op, Forest Centre Whitehill Bordon Local Shops Whitehill Bordon Sub-Total Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnhma Other Outflow Other Sub-Total Market Share Total
Convenience Expenditure 2026 (£ Million) Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
£50.74 £1.52 £0.51 £0.00 £0.00 £2.03 £0.00 £36.03 £4.06 £42.12 £2.54 £0.00 £1.52 £4.57 £8.63 £50.74
£15.79 £0.47 £0.63 £0.00 £0.00 £1.11 £2.37 £0.47 £2.84 £6.79 £8.21 £0.16 £0.00 £0.63 £9.00 £15.79
£81.73 £18.80 £0.82 £8.99 £0.82 £29.42 £20.43 £5.72 £5.72 £61.30 £3.27 £6.54 £2.45 £8.17 £20.43 £81.73
n/a £2.31 £0.10 £0.47 £0.02 £2.90 £4.02 £14.07 £0.26 £21.26 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total Expenditure £148.26 £23.10 £2.06 £9.46 £0.83 £35.46 £26.82 £56.29 £12.88 £131.46 £14.02 £6.70 £3.97 £13.37 £38.06 n/a
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 13B Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2026 Whitehill Bordon Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow Other Sub-Total Market Share Total
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Convenience Expenditure 2026 (£ Million) with Ecotown Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
£50.74 £3.04 £0.00 £35.01 £4.06 £42.12 £2.54 £0.00 £1.52 £4.57 £8.63 £50.74
£15.79 £1.58 £2.37 £0.47 £2.84 £7.26 £7.74 £0.16 £0.00 £0.63 £8.52 £15.79
£100.77 £48.37 £20.15 £5.04 £6.05 £79.60 £3.02 £7.05 £2.02 £9.07 £21.16 £100.77
n/a £2.21 £3.97 £18.21 £0.26 £24.65 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total Expenditure £167.29 £55.20 £26.50 £58.73 £13.21 £153.63 £13.30 £7.21 £3.54 £14.27 £38.31 n/a
Table 14B: Summary of Convenience Turnover with No Whitehill/Bordon Development 2011 to 2026 (£Million) Town
2011
2015
2020
2026
£21.22 £1.85 £9.14 £0.74 £32.95
£21.08 £1.90 £8.64 £0.76 £32.38
£21.97 £1.97 £9.01 £0.79 £33.74
£23.10 £2.06 £9.46 £0.83 £35.46
Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Total Benchmark Turnover of Existing Facilities Tesco, High Street, Bordon Lidl, Pinehill Road Co-op, Forest Centre Whitehill Bordon Local Shops Whitehill Bordon Total
£23.97 £44.40 £11.44 £112.76
£24.66 £49.92 £11.79 £118.75
£25.62 £52.74 £12.27 £124.37
£26.82 £56.29 £12.88 £131.46
£20.89 £4.76 £12.89 £0.79 £39.33
£20.89 £4.76 £12.89 £0.79 £39.33
£20.89 £4.76 £12.89 £0.79 £39.33
£20.89 £4.76 £12.89 £0.79 £39.33
Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Total Commitments Aldi, Turk Street Waitrose, Station Road Total Surplus Expenditure
£24.01 £46.31 £9.85 £119.50
£24.01 £46.31 £9.85 £119.50
£24.01 £46.31 £9.85 £119.50
£24.01 £46.31 £9.85 £119.50
£6.38 £17.87 £24.25
£6.38 £17.87 £24.25
£6.38 £17.87 £24.25
£6.38 £17.87 £24.25
Whitehill Bordon Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Total Floorspace (Sq m (Net))
-£6.38 -£0.04 -£26.16 £1.59 -£30.99
-£6.95 £0.65 -£20.64 £1.94 -£25.00
-£5.59 £1.61 -£17.82 £2.42 -£19.38
-£3.87 £2.81 -£14.27 £3.03 -£12.29
Whitehill Bordon Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Total
-511 -3 -2,092 127 -2,479
-556 52 -1,651 155 -2,000
-447 128 -1,426 194 -1,550
-310 225 -1,141 242 -983
Available Expenditure Tesco, High Street, Bordon Lidl, Pinehill Road Co-op, Forest Centre Whitehill Bordon Local Shops Whitehill Bordon Total
Sources: Tables 1A, 5B, 7B, 10B and 12B
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 15B: Summary of Convenience Turnover with Whitehill Bordon Development 2011 to 2026 (£Million) Town
2011
2015
2020
2026
Whitehill Bordon Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Total Benchmark Turnover of Existing Facilities
£32.95 £23.97 £44.40 £11.44 £112.76
£42.53 £20.65 £50.92 £11.13 £125.23
£47.26 £22.82 £54.25 £11.94 £136.27
£55.20 £26.50 £58.73 £13.21 £153.63
Whitehill Bordon Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Total Commitments Aldi, Turk Street Waitrose, Station Road Total Surplus Expenditure
£39.33 £24.01 £46.31 £9.85 £119.50
£39.33 £24.01 £46.31 £9.85 £119.50
£39.33 £24.01 £46.31 £9.85 £119.50
£39.33 £24.01 £46.31 £9.85 £119.50
£6.38 £17.87 £24.25
£6.38 £17.87 £24.25
£6.38 £17.87 £24.25
£6.38 £17.87 £24.25
Whitehill Bordon Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Total Floorspace (Sq m (Net))
-£6.38 -£0.04 -£26.16 £1.59 -£32.58
£3.20 -£3.36 -£19.64 £1.28 -£19.80
£7.93 -£1.19 -£16.31 £2.09 -£9.57
£15.87 £2.49 -£11.83 £3.36 £6.52
Whitehill Bordon Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Total
-511 -3 -2,092 127 -2,479
256 -269 -1,571 103 -1,482
634 -95 -1,305 168 -598
1,269 199 -946 269 791
Available Expenditure
Sources: Tables 1A, 5B, 8B, 9B, 11B, 13B
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Appendix C: Comparison Retail Assessment
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 1C: Comparison Goods Expenditure Per Capita (2009 Prices) Expenditure Per Capita
Postal Sector
Zone 1 - Alton
GU34 1 GU34 2 GU34 3 GU34 4 GU33 6 GU33 7 GU26 6 GU30 7 GU35 0 GU35 8 GU35 9
Zone 4 - Petersfield Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
2011
2015
2020
2026
£2,794 £2,592 £3,280 £2,915 £2,994 £2,864 £3,069 £2,849 £2,552 £3,171 £2,955
£3,252 £3,016 £3,817 £3,392 £3,484 £3,333 £3,571 £3,315 £2,969 £3,690 £3,439
£4,096 £3,799 £4,807 £4,272 £4,388 £4,198 £4,498 £4,175 £3,740 £4,648 £4,331
£5,413 £5,021 £6,354 £5,646 £5,800 £5,548 £5,946 £5,518 £4,943 £6,143 £5,725
Growth 2011-2015 16.4% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4% 16.3% 16.4% 16.4%
Growth 2011-2020 46.6% 46.6% 46.6% 46.6% 46.6% 46.6% 46.6% 46.5% 46.6% 46.6% 46.6%
Growth 2011-2026 93.7% 93.7% 93.7% 93.7% 93.7% 93.7% 93.7% 93.7% 93.7% 93.7% 93.7%
Sources: Experian local estimates of 2009 convenience goods expenditure per capita Excluding special forms of trading -9.5% in 2011, -10.4% in 2015 and -10.3% in 2020. Experian Business Strategies - forecast annual growth rates for 2011 to 2012 (1.2% and 2.4%) Experian Business Strategies - ultra long term growth rate adopted beyond 2012 (4.7% per annum)
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 2C: Total Available Comparison Goods Expenditure (£M - 2009 Prices) Zone
Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
GU34 GU34 GU34 GU34 GU33 GU33 GU26 GU30 GU35 GU35 GU35
1 2 3 4 6 7 6 7 0 8 9
Total Zone 5 - additional expenditure at Whitehill Bordon Sources:
2011
2015
2020
2026
Growth 2011-2015
Growth 2011-2020
Growth 2011-2026
£16.96 £27.04 £8.56 £11.75 £5.62 £18.00 £21.82 £27.05 £28.73 £15.61 £17.61 £198.77
£21.89 £31.30 £9.93 £14.61 £6.31 £20.96 £26.22 £33.65 £33.15 £18.06 £20.49 £236.57
£30.29 £39.21 £12.45 £19.57 £7.66 £26.41 £34.07 £45.11 £41.41 £22.61 £25.80 £304.60
£44.33 £51.48 £16.38 £27.73 £9.66 £34.93 £46.68 £63.96 £54.17 £29.67 £34.10 £413.11
29.1% 15.7% 15.9% 24.3% 12.3% 16.4% 20.1% 24.4% 15.4% 15.7% 16.4% 19.0%
78.6% 45.0% 45.4% 66.5% 36.3% 46.7% 56.1% 66.8% 44.1% 44.8% 46.5% 53.2%
161.4% 90.4% 91.3% 135.9% 72.0% 94.1% 113.9% 136.4% 88.5% 90.0% 93.6% 107.8%
n/a
£2.87
£16.47
£53.23
Table 1B and 2C
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 3C
Comparison Expenditure 2011 (£ Million) - No Whitehill Bordon Development
Centre/Facilities
Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
Expenditure 2011 Market Shares Whitehill Bordon
£64.32
£23.62
£110.83
n/a
1%
4%
6%
10%
37% 0% 0% 0% 38% 5% 1% 9% 47% 100% Zone 1 - Alton
2% 1% 0% 4% 11% 36% 1% 1% 51% 100% Zone 4 - Petersfield
5% 3% 4% 0% 18% 4% 3% 14% 61% 100% Zone 5 - Whitehill/Bordon
25% 10% 10% 5% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a % Inflow
Turnover (£M) Whitehill Bordon
£0.64
£0.94
£6.65
£0.92
£9.15
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outside District TOTAL
£23.80 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £24.44 £3.22 £0.64 £5.79 £30.23 £64.32
£0.47 £0.24 £0.00 £0.94 £2.60 £8.50 £0.24 £0.24 £12.05 £23.62
£5.54 £3.33 £4.43 £0.00 £19.95 £4.43 £3.33 £15.52 £67.61 £110.83
£9.94 £0.40 £0.49 £0.05 £11.79 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
£39.75 £3.96 £4.93 £0.99 £58.78 £16.15 £4.20 £21.54 £109.88 n/a
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow TOTAL Centre/Facilities
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Total Expenditure £198.77
Total (£M)
Table 4C
Comparison Expenditure 2015 (£ Million) no Whitehill Bordon Development
Centre/Facilities
Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill/Bordon
% Inflow
Expenditure 2015 Market Shares Whitehill Bordon
£77.73
£27.27
£131.57
n/a
1%
4%
6%
10%
37% 0% 0% 0% 38% 5% 1% 9% 47% 100% Zone 1 - Alton
2% 1% 0% 4% 11% 36% 1% 1% 51% 100% Zone 4 - Petersfield
5% 3% 4% 0% 18% 4% 3% 14% 61% 100% Zone 5 - Whitehill/Bordon
25% 10% 10% 5% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a % Inflow
Turnover (£M) Whitehill Bordon
£0.78
£1.09
£7.89
£1.08
£10.85
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outside District TOTAL
£28.76 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £29.54 £3.89 £0.78 £7.00 £36.53 £77.73
£0.55 £0.27 £0.00 £1.09 £3.00 £9.82 £0.27 £0.27 £13.91 £27.27
£6.58 £3.95 £5.26 £0.00 £23.68 £5.26 £3.95 £18.42 £80.26 £131.57
£11.96 £0.47 £0.58 £0.06 £14.16 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
£47.84 £4.69 £5.85 £1.15 £70.38 £18.97 £5.00 £25.69 £130.70 n/a
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow TOTAL Centre/Facilities
Total Expenditure £236.57
Total (£M)
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 5C
Comparison Expenditure 2015 (£ Million) with Whitehill Bordon Development
Centre/Facilities
Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill/Bordon
% Inflow
Expenditure 2015 Market Shares Whitehill Bordon
£77.73
£27.27
£134.44
n/a
2%
5%
30%
10%
36% 0% 0% 0% 38% 5% 1% 9% 47% 100% Zone 1 - Alton
2% 1% 0% 4% 12% 35% 1% 1% 51% 100% Zone 4 - Petersfield
4% 2% 3% 0% 39% 4% 3% 14% 40% 100% Zone 5 - Whitehill/Bordon
25% 10% 10% 5% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a % Inflow
Turnover (£M) Whitehill Bordon
£1.55
£1.36
£40.33
£4.81
£48.06
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outside District TOTAL
£27.98 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £29.54 £3.89 £0.78 £7.00 £36.53 £77.73
£0.55 £0.27 £0.00 £1.09 £3.27 £9.54 £0.27 £0.27 £13.91 £27.27
£5.38 £2.69 £4.03 £0.00 £52.43 £5.38 £4.03 £18.82 £53.78 £134.44
£11.30 £0.33 £0.45 £0.06 £16.94 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
£45.21 £3.29 £4.48 £1.15 £102.18 £18.81 £5.08 £26.09 £104.22 n/a
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow TOTAL Centre/Facilities
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Total Expenditure £239.44
Total (£M)
Table 6C
Comparison Expenditure 2020 (£ Million) no Whitehill Bordon Development
Centre/Facilities
Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
Expenditure 2020 Market Shares Whitehill Bordon
£101.52
£34.07
£169.00
n/a
1%
4%
6%
10%
37% 0% 0% 0% 38% 5% 1% 9% 47% 100% Zone 1 - Alton
2% 1% 0% 4% 11% 36% 1% 1% 51% 100% Zone 4 - Petersfield
5% 3% 4% 0% 18% 4% 3% 14% 61% 100% Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
25% 10% 10% 5% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a % Inflow
£1.02
£1.36
£10.14
£1.39
£13.91
£37.56 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £38.58 £5.08 £1.02 £9.14 £47.72 £101.52
£0.68 £0.34 £0.00 £1.36 £3.75 £12.27 £0.34 £0.34 £17.38 £34.07
£8.45 £5.07 £6.76 £0.00 £30.42 £6.76 £5.07 £23.66 £103.09 £169.00
£15.57 £0.60 £0.75 £0.07 £18.38 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
£62.26 £6.01 £7.51 £1.43 £91.13 £24.10 £6.43 £33.14 £168.18 n/a
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow TOTAL Centre/Facilities Turnover (£M) Whitehill Bordon Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outside District TOTAL
Total Expenditure £304.60
Total (£M)
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 7C
Comparison Expenditure 2020 (£ Million) with Whitehill Bordon Development
Centre/Facilities
Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
Expenditure 2020 Market Shares Whitehill Bordon
£101.52
£34.07
£185.47
n/a
2%
5%
30%
10%
36% 0% 0% 0% 38% 5% 1% 9% 47% 100% Zone 1 - Alton
2% 1% 0% 4% 12% 35% 1% 1% 51% 100% Zone 4 - Petersfield
4% 2% 3% 0% 39% 4% 3% 14% 40% 100% Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
25% 10% 10% 5% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a % Inflow
£2.03
£1.70
£55.64
£6.60
£65.97
£36.55 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £38.58 £5.08 £1.02 £9.14 £47.72 £101.52
£0.68 £0.34 £0.00 £1.36 £4.09 £11.93 £0.34 £0.34 £17.38 £34.07
£7.42 £3.71 £5.56 £0.00 £72.33 £7.42 £5.56 £25.97 £74.19 £185.47
£14.88 £0.45 £0.62 £0.07 £22.62 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
£59.53 £4.50 £6.18 £1.43 £137.62 £24.42 £6.92 £35.44 £139.28 n/a
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow TOTAL Centre/Facilities Turnover (£M) Whitehill Bordon Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow TOTAL
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Total Expenditure £321.07
Total (£M)
Table 8C
Comparison Expenditure 2020 (£ Million) no Whitehill Bordon Development
Centre/Facilities
Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
Expenditure 2020 Market Shares Whitehill Bordon
£139.93
£44.60
£228.58
n/a
1%
4%
6%
10%
37% 0% 0% 0% 38% 5% 1% 9% 47% 100% Zone 1 - Alton
2% 1% 0% 4% 11% 36% 1% 1% 51% 100% Zone 4 - Petersfield
5% 3% 4% 0% 18% 4% 3% 14% 61% 100% Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
25% 10% 10% 5% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a % Inflow
£1.40
£1.78
£13.72
£1.88
£18.78
£51.77 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £53.17 £7.00 £1.40 £12.59 £65.77 £139.93
£0.89 £0.45 £0.00 £1.78 £4.91 £16.05 £0.45 £0.45 £22.74 £44.60
£11.43 £6.86 £9.14 £0.00 £41.15 £9.14 £6.86 £32.00 £139.44 £228.58
£21.36 £0.81 £1.02 £0.09 £25.16 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
£85.46 £8.11 £10.16 £1.88 £124.39 £32.19 £8.70 £45.04 £227.95 n/a
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow TOTAL Centre/Facilities Turnover (£M) Whitehill Bordon Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outside District TOTAL
Total Expenditure £413.11
Total (£M)
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 9C
Comparison Expenditure 2020 (£ Million) with Whitehill Bordon Development
Centre/Facilities
Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
Expenditure 2020 Market Shares Whitehill Bordon
£139.93
£44.60
£281.81
n/a
2%
5%
30%
10%
36% 0% 0% 0% 38% 5% 1% 9% 47% 100% Zone 1 - Alton
2% 1% 0% 4% 12% 35% 1% 1% 51% 100% Zone 4 - Petersfield
4% 2% 3% 0% 39% 4% 3% 14% 40% 100% Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
25% 10% 10% 5% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a % Inflow
£2.80
£2.23
£84.54
£9.95
£99.53
£50.37 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £53.17 £7.00 £1.40 £12.59 £65.77 £139.93
£0.89 £0.45 £0.00 £1.78 £5.35 £15.61 £0.45 £0.45 £22.74 £44.60
£11.27 £5.64 £8.45 £0.00 £109.91 £11.27 £8.45 £39.45 £112.73 £281.81
£20.85 £0.68 £0.94 £0.09 £32.51 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
£83.38 £6.76 £9.39 £1.88 £200.94 £33.88 £10.30 £52.49 £201.24 n/a
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow TOTAL Centre/Facilities Turnover (£M) Whitehill Bordon Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow TOTAL
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Total Expenditure £466.34
Total (£M)
Table 10C: Summary of Comparison Turnover with No Whitehill Bordon Development 2011 to 2026 (£Million) Town
2011
2015
2020
2026
Available Expenditure Whitehill Bordon
£9.15
£10.85
£13.91
£18.78
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Total Turnover of Existing Floorspace Whitehill Bordon
£39.75 £3.96 £4.93 £0.99 £58.78
£47.84 £4.69 £5.85 £1.15 £70.38
£62.26 £6.01 £7.51 £1.43 £91.13
£85.46 £8.11 £10.16 £1.88 £124.39
£9.15
£9.71
£10.72
£12.08
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Total Commitments Aldi, Turk Street, Alton Waitrose, Station Road, Alton Four Retail Warehouses, Mill Lane, Alton Total Surplus Expenditure Whitehill Bordon
£39.75 £3.96 £4.93 £0.99 £58.78
£42.18 £4.20 £5.23 £1.06 £62.38
£46.57 £4.64 £5.77 £1.17 £68.87
£52.45 £5.22 £6.50 £1.31 £77.56
n/a n/a n/a n/a
£1.28 £0.70 £8.70 £10.68
£1.41 £0.77 £9.61 £11.79
£1.59 £0.87 £10.82 £13.28
n/a
£1.13
£3.18
£6.70
n/a n/a n/a n/a £0.00
-£5.02 £0.49 £0.62 £0.09 -£2.68
£3.90 £1.38 £1.74 £0.27 £10.47
£19.73 £2.89 £3.66 £0.57 £33.55
n/a
214
544
1,015
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
-946 92 117 17 -506
665 235 297 46 1,786
2,991 439 555 86 5,085
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Total Floorspace (Sq m (Net)) Whitehill Bordon Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Total Sources: Tables 2A, 3C, 4C, 6C, 8C
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 11C: Summary of Comparison Turnover with Whitehill Bordon Development 2011 to 2026 (£Million) Town
2011
2015
2020
2026
Available Expenditure Whitehill Bordon
£9.15
£48.06
£65.97
£99.53
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Total Turnover of Existing Floorspace Whitehill Bordon
£39.75 £3.96 £4.93 £0.99 £58.78
£45.21 £3.29 £4.48 £1.15 £102.18
£59.53 £4.50 £6.18 £1.43 £137.62
£83.38 £6.76 £9.39 £1.88 £200.94
£9.15
£9.71
£10.72
£12.08
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Total Commitments Aldi, Turk Street, Alton Waitrose, Station Road, Alton Four Retail Warehouses, Mill Lane, Alton Total Surplus Expenditure Whitehill Bordon
£39.75 £3.96 £4.93 £0.99 £58.78
£42.18 £4.20 £5.23 £1.06 £62.38
£46.57 £4.64 £5.77 £1.17 £68.87
£52.45 £5.22 £6.50 £1.31 £77.56
n/a n/a n/a n/a
£1.28 £0.70 £8.70 £10.68
£1.41 £0.77 £9.61 £11.79
£1.59 £0.87 £10.82 £13.28
n/a
£38.34
£55.25
£87.45
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Total Floorspace (Sq m (Net)) Whitehill Bordon
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
-£7.66 -£0.91 -£0.75 £0.09 £29.13
£1.17 -£0.14 £0.41 £0.27 £56.96
£17.66 £1.54 £2.89 £0.57 £110.10
n/a
7,226
9,431
13,255
Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Total
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
-1,443 -171 -141 17 5,489
199 -23 70 46 9,723
2,676 233 439 86 16,689
Sources: Tables 2A, 3C, 5C, 7C and 9C
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Appendix D: Convenience Retail Impact Assessment
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 1D - Convenience Floorspace and Benchmark Turnover of New Food Superstores (2009 Prices) Store
New Foodstore at Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Net Sales Floorspace (sq m)
Convenience Sales Floorspace
2,500
80%
Convenience Turnover Density Floorspace Sq m (£ per sq m)* net 2,000
£12,500
Total Convenience Turnover (£M)
£25.00
*Average of top 5 supermarket turnover densities (Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, Morrisons, Waitrose)
Table 2D:
Trade Draw
Turnover
Proposed New Foodstores Turnover and Trade Draw (% and £Millions) Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 5
% Inflow
Total
5%
5%
70%
20%
100%
£1.25
£1.25
£17.50
£5.00
£25.00
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 3D: Impact Analysis with New Edge/Out of Centre Foodstore at 2015 (£ Million) Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2015 Whitehill Bordon New Edge/Out of Centre Foodstore Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow Other Sub-Total Market Share Total
Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
£44.73 £1.73 £1.25 £0.00 £29.96 £3.54 £36.48 £2.61 £0.00 £1.30 £4.34 £8.25 £44.73
£15.30 £0.96 £1.25 £2.08 £0.28 £2.67 £7.24 £7.36 £0.14 £0.00 £0.56 £8.06 £15.30
£76.28 £21.15 £17.50 £14.65 £2.93 £4.93 £61.16 £2.34 £5.16 £1.76 £5.86 £15.12 £76.28
n/a £1.20 £5.00 £3.52 £10.47 £0.24 £20.43 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total Expenditure £136.31 £25.04 £25.00 £20.25 £43.63 £11.38 £125.31 £12.31 £5.30 £3.06 £10.76 £31.43 n/a
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 4D: Impact Analysis with Two New Food Stores at 2015 (£ Million) Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2015 Whitehill Bordon New Edge/Out of Centre Foodstore New Foodstore at Whitehill Bordon Eco-town Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow Other Sub-Total Market Share Total
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
£44.73 £1.62 £1.25 £1.25 £0.00 £29.09 £3.51 £36.72 £2.53 £0.00 £1.26 £4.22 £8.01 £44.73
£15.30 £0.76 £1.25 £1.25 £1.89 £0.25 £2.59 £7.99 £6.67 £0.13 £0.00 £0.50 £7.31 £15.30
£76.28 £10.20 £17.50 £17.50 £11.65 £2.33 £4.65 £63.83 £1.86 £4.52 £1.40 £4.66 £12.45 £76.28
n/a £0.57 £5.00 £5.00 £2.48 £7.84 £0.21 £21.10 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total Expenditure £136.31 £13.14 £25.00 £25.00 £16.03 £39.51 £10.96 £129.64 £11.07 £4.66 £2.66 £9.38 £27.77 n/a
Table 5D: Impact Analysis with New Edge/Out of Centre Foodstore at 2020 (£ Million) Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2020 Whitehill Bordon New Edge/Out of Centre Foodstore Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow Other Sub-Total Market Share Total
Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
£47.39 £1.83 £1.25 £0.00 £31.79 £3.76 £38.63 £2.76 £0.00 £1.38 £4.61 £8.75 £47.39
£15.52 £0.97 £1.25 £2.12 £0.28 £2.71 £7.33 £7.48 £0.15 £0.00 £0.56 £8.19 £15.52
£85.36 £24.60 £17.50 £16.92 £3.38 £5.56 £67.97 £2.71 £5.89 £2.03 £6.77 £17.39 £85.36
n/a £1.20 £5.00 £3.52 £10.47 £0.24 £20.43 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total Expenditure £148.26 £28.61 £25.00 £22.56 £45.93 £12.27 £134.36 £12.95 £6.03 £3.41 £11.94 £34.34 n/a
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 6D: Impact Analysis with Two Food Stores at 2020 (£ Million) Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2020 Whitehill Bordon New Edge/Out of Centre Foodstore New Foodstore at Whitehill Bordon Eco-town Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow Other Sub-Total Market Share Total
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
£47.39 £1.72 £1.25 £1.25 £0.00 £30.92 £3.72 £38.87 £2.69 £0.00 £1.34 £4.48 £8.52 £47.39
£15.52 £0.77 £1.25 £1.25 £1.92 £0.26 £2.63 £8.08 £6.79 £0.14 £0.00 £0.51 £7.44 £15.52
£85.36 £13.65 £17.50 £17.50 £13.93 £2.79 £5.28 £70.65 £2.23 £5.25 £1.67 £5.57 £14.72 £85.36
n/a £0.72 £5.00 £5.00 £2.89 £8.60 £0.23 £22.44 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total Expenditure £148.26 £16.87 £25.00 £25.00 £18.74 £42.56 £11.87 £140.03 £11.71 £5.38 £3.02 £10.56 £30.67 n/a
Table 7D: Impact Analysis with New Edge/Out of Centre Foodstore at 2026 (£ Million) Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2026 Whitehill Bordon New Edge/Out of Centre Foodstore Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow Other Sub-Total Market Share Total
Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
£50.74 £1.97 £1.25 £0.00 £34.11 £4.02 £41.35 £2.97 £0.00 £1.48 £4.94 £9.39 £50.74
£15.79 £0.99 £1.25 £2.16 £0.29 £2.76 £7.44 £7.62 £0.15 £0.00 £0.58 £8.34 £15.79
£100.77 £30.45 £17.50 £20.77 £4.15 £6.64 £79.52 £3.32 £7.12 £2.49 £8.31 £21.24 £100.77
n/a £1.43 £5.00 £4.14 £11.46 £0.27 £22.30 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total Expenditure £167.29 £34.84 £25.00 £27.07 £50.01 £13.69 £150.62 £13.91 £7.27 £3.98 £13.83 £38.98 n/a
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 8D:
Impact Analysis with New Edge/Out of Centre Foodstore and New Ecotown Foodstore at 2026 (£ Million)
Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2026 Whitehill Bordon New Edge/Out of Centre Foodstore New Foodstore at Whitehill Bordon Eco-town Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outflow Other Sub-Total Market Share Total
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
£50.74 £1.86 £1.25 £1.25 £0.00 £33.24 £3.99 £41.59 £2.89 £0.00 £1.45 £4.82 £9.15 £50.74
£15.79 £0.79 £1.25 £1.25 £1.96 £0.26 £2.68 £8.19 £6.93 £0.14 £0.00 £0.52 £7.60 £15.79
£100.77 £19.51 £17.50 £17.50 £17.78 £3.56 £6.36 £82.20 £2.84 £6.48 £2.13 £7.11 £18.57 £100.77
n/a £0.90 £5.00 £5.00 £3.46 £9.57 £0.26 £24.18 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Total Expenditure £167.29 £23.05 £25.00 £25.00 £23.20 £46.63 £13.29 £156.16 £12.67 £6.62 £3.58 £12.45 £35.31 n/a
Table 9D: Summary of Convenience Retail Impact at 2015 Centre
Whitehill Bordon New Edge/Out of Centre Foodstore New Foodstore at Whitehill Bordon Eco-town Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Source: Tables 1A, 5B, 11B, 3D, 4D
2011 Turnover
A £32.95 n/a n/a £23.97 £44.40 £11.44 £112.76
2015 Turnover No New Food Stores B £33.17 n/a n/a £25.13 £46.64 £11.91 £116.86
2015 Turnover with One New Foodstore C £25.04 £25.00 n/a £20.25 £43.63 £11.38 £125.31
2015 Impact One Store
2020 Turnover with One New Foodstore C £28.61 £25.00 n/a £22.56 £45.93 £12.27 £134.36
2020 Impact One Store
D -24.5% n/a n/a -19.4% -6.5% -4.4%
2015 Turnover with Two New Foodstores E £13.14 £25.00 £25.00 £16.03 £39.51 £10.96 £129.64
2015 Cumulative Impact With Two Stores F -60.4% n/a n/a -36.2% -15.3% -8.0%
Benchmark Company Average Turnover G £39.33 n/a n/a £24.01 £70.56 £9.85 £143.75
Trading % of Benchmark One Store H 63.7% n/a n/a 84.4% 61.8% 115.6% 90.2%
Trading % of Benchmark Two Stores I 33.4% n/a n/a 66.8% 56.0% 111.3%
2020 Turnover with Two New Foodstores E £16.87 £25.00 £25.00 £18.74 £42.56 £11.87 £140.03
2020 Cumulative Impact With Two Stores F -54.3% n/a n/a -32.7% -14.4% -7.4%
Benchmark Company Average Turnover G £39.33 n/a n/a £24.01 £70.56 £9.85 £143.75
Trading % of Benchmark One Store H 72.7% n/a n/a 93.9% 65.1% 124.6% 97.4%
Trading % of Benchmark Two Stores I 42.9% n/a n/a 78.0% 60.3% 120.5%
Table 10D: Summary of Convenience Retail Impact at 2020 Centre
Whitehill Bordon New Edge/Out of Centre Foodstore New Foodstore at Whitehill Bordon Eco-town Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Source: Tables 1A, 5B, 11B, 3D, 4D
2011 Turnover
A £32.95 n/a n/a £23.97 £44.40 £11.44 £112.76
2020 Turnover No New Food Stores B £36.89 n/a n/a £27.84 £49.70 £12.82 £127.25
D -22.5% n/a n/a -19.0% -7.6% -4.3%
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 11D: Summary of Convenience Retail Impact at 2026 Centre
Whitehill Bordon New Edge/Out of Centre Foodstore New Foodstore at Whitehill Bordon Eco-town Liphook Alton Local Shops in Catchment Area Catchment Area Total Source: Tables 1A, 5B, 13B, 5D, 6D
2011 Turnover
A £32.95 n/a n/a £23.97 £44.40 £11.44 £112.76
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
2026 Turnover No New Food Stores B £43.15 n/a n/a £32.42 £53.82 £14.24 £143.63
2026 Turnover with One New Foodstore C £34.84 £25.00 n/a £27.07 £50.01 £13.69 £150.62
2026 Impact One Store D -19.3% n/a n/a -16.5% -7.1% -3.8%
2026 Turnover with Two New Foodstores E £23.05 £25.00 £25.00 £23.20 £46.63 £13.29 £156.16
2026 Cumulative Impact With Two Stores F -46.6% n/a n/a -28.5% -13.4% -6.7%
Benchmark Company Average Turnover G £39.33 n/a n/a £24.01 £70.56 £9.85 £143.75
Trading % of Benchmark One Store H 88.6% n/a n/a 112.8% 70.9% 139.0% 108.6%
Trading % of Benchmark Two Stores I 58.6% n/a n/a 96.6% 66.1% 134.9%
Appendix E: Comparison Retail Impact Assessment
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 1E
Market Shares % Trade Draw ÂŁM Turnover from each zone
Note :
Whitehill/Borden Tunrover and Trade Draw Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill/Bordon
% Inflow
Total
3%
2%
85%
10%
100%
2.39
1.59
67.65
7.96
79.59
Turnover based on 15,000 sq m net of comparsion floorspace @ ÂŁ5,306 per sq m
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 2E Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2015 Turnover (£M) Whitehill Bordon Whitehill Bordon New Floorsace Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outside District TOTAL
Comparison Expenditure 2015 (£ Million) with Whitehill/Bordon Development Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
£77.73
£27.27
£134.44
n/a
Total Expenditure £239.44
£0.75 £2.39 £27.88 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £31.02 £3.77 £0.75 £6.78 £35.41 £77.73
£1.03 £1.59 £0.51 £0.26 £0.00 £1.03 £4.42 £9.24 £0.26 £0.26 £13.09 £27.27
£3.89 £67.65 £3.24 £2.47 £3.99 £0.00 £81.24 £2.60 £1.95 £9.08 £39.58 £134.44
£0.94 £7.96 £10.23 £0.43 £0.55 £0.05 £20.16 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
£6.61 £79.59 £41.87 £3.15 £4.54 £1.08 £136.84 £15.60 £2.96 £16.12 £88.08 n/a
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 3E Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2020 Turnover (£M) Whitehill Bordon Whitehill Bordon New Floorsace Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outside District TOTAL
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Comparison Expenditure 2020 (£ Million) with Whitehill Bordon Development Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
£101.52
£34.07
£185.47
n/a
Total Expenditure £321.07
£0.99 £2.64 £36.59 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £40.21 £4.94 £0.99 £8.90 £46.48 £101.52
£1.29 £1.76 £0.65 £0.33 £0.00 £1.29 £5.32 £11.63 £0.32 £0.32 £16.48 £34.07
£6.52 £74.69 £5.43 £3.84 £5.88 £0.00 £96.36 £4.35 £3.26 £15.21 £66.29 £185.47
£1.27 £8.79 £13.45 £0.58 £0.76 £0.06 £24.92 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
£10.08 £87.87 £56.12 £4.75 £6.65 £1.35 £166.81 £20.92 £4.57 £24.44 £129.25 n/a
Table 4E Centre/Facilities Expenditure 2026 Turnover (£M) Whitehill Bordon Whitehill Bordon New Floorsace Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Catchment Area Total Petersfield Haslemere Farnham Other outside District TOTAL
Comparison Expenditure 2026 (£ Million) with Whitehill Bordon Development Zone 1 - Alton
Zone 4 - Petersfield
Zone 5 - Whitehill Bordon
% Inflow
£139.93
£44.60
£281.81
n/a
Total Expenditure £466.34
£1.37 £2.97 £50.67 £0.00 £0.00 £0.00 £55.01 £6.85 £1.37 £12.33 £64.37 £139.93
£1.70 £1.98 £0.85 £0.43 £0.00 £1.70 £6.67 £15.34 £0.43 £0.43 £21.73 £44.60
£11.72 £84.12 £9.77 £6.51 £9.54 £0.00 £121.65 £7.81 £5.86 £27.34 £119.15 £281.81
£1.90 £9.90 £18.91 £0.88 £1.16 £0.08 £32.82 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
£16.69 £98.96 £80.21 £7.82 £10.70 £1.78 £216.16 £30.00 £7.66 £40.10 £205.25 n/a
Table 5E: Summary of Comparison Retail Impact at 2015 Centre
2011 Turnover
Whitehill Bordon Whitehill Bordon New Floorsace Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Total
£9.15 n/a £39.75 £3.96 £4.93 £0.99 £58.78
2015 Turnover No Development £11.04 n/a £48.04 £4.78 £5.98 £1.15 £70.98
2015 Turnover with Development
2015 Impact
£6.61 £79.59 £41.87 £3.15 £4.54 £1.08 £136.84
-40.1% n/a -12.8% -34.1% -24.0% -6.3%
2015 Projected Benchmark Turnover 9.71 n/a 42.18 4.20 5.23 1.06 £62.38
2015 % of Benchmark Turnover 68.1% n/a 99.2% 75.1% 86.8% 101.9%
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Table 6E: Summary of Comparison Retail Impact at 2020 Centre
2011 Turnover
Whitehill Bordon Whitehill Bordon New Floorsace Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Total
£9.15 n/a £39.75 £3.96 £4.93 £0.99 £58.78
2020 Turnover No Development £15.01 n/a £63.36 £6.56 £8.24 £1.43 £94.60
2020 Turnover with Development
2020 Impact
£10.08 £87.87 £56.12 £4.75 £6.65 £1.35 £166.81
-32.9% n/a -11.4% -27.7% -19.4% -5.7%
2020 Projected Benchmark Turnover 10.72 n/a 46.57 4.64 5.77 1.17 £68.87
2020 % of Benchmark Turnover 94.0% n/a 120.5% 102.4% 115.1% 116.1%
Table 7E: Summary of Comparison Retail Impact at 2026 Centre
2011 Turnover
Whitehill Bordon Whitehill Bordon New Floorsace Alton Liphook Grayshott Liss Total
£9.15 n/a £39.75 £3.96 £4.93 £0.99 £58.78
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
2026 Turnover No Development £22.32 n/a £89.01 £9.89 £12.53 £1.88 £135.62
2026 Turnover with Development
2026 Impact
£16.69 £98.96 £80.21 £7.82 £10.70 £1.78 £216.16
-25.2% n/a -9.9% -21.0% -14.6% -5.0%
2026 Projected Benchmark Turnover 11.84 n/a 51.42 5.12 6.37 1.29 £76.04
2026 % of Benchmark Turnover 141.0% n/a 156.0% 152.7% 167.9% 138.7%
Appendix F: Plan of Eco-Town Masterplan and Potential Development Sites
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Whitehill Bordon EcoEco-town Masterplan
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
Plan of Potential Development Sites
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town
www.whitehillbordon.com Produced on behalf of Whitehill Bordon Eco-town East Hampshire District Council Penns Place Petersfield Hampshire GU31 4EX 01730 234 329
Retail Assessment for Whitehill Bordon Eco-town