UTAH INFORMED V I S U A L
I N T E L L E C T I O N
F O R
DAV I D E CC L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S In Par tnership with the Salt Lake Chamber
2 0 1 8
KEM C. GARDNER POLIC Y INSTITUTE
We are an honest broker of
INFORMED RESEARCH that guides
INFORMED DISCUSSIONS and leads to
INFORMED DECISIONSâ„¢
January 2018
D
uring a trade mission to Israel in September 2017, Utah Gov. Gary Herbert shared with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a striking bronze statue of the Mormon pioneers on their trek west. Netanyahu reportedly studied the statue with sincerity and interest and then said, “They
must have been hardworking, tough people.” The phrase captures so much of what it means to live and work in Utah. Utahns are industrious people who seize opportunities, face challenges and persevere. We don’t back away from trials and we always work hard. In this, the third edition of Utah Informed, we show the fruits of
This year, many businesses and individuals have joined the
this hard work and the challenges that remain. The tables, charts,
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute as “Partners in the Community.”
ideas, and schematics force the viewer to consider a compelling
These partners help fund the public purpose research of the
trend, an innovative idea or an aspirational thought. We call it
institute so we can help Utah prosper. Our goal is to be honest
“visual intellection” because the information both inspires and
brokers of informed research, that guides informed discussions,
causes discomfort. We want to make your think.
and leads to INFORMED DECISIONS™.
We hope this edition of Utah Informed will help you make wise decisions in 2018.
Natalie Gochnour
Taylor Randall
Lane Beattie
Associate Dean, David Eccles School of Business Director, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Dean, David Eccles School of Business
President & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
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Contents Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Table of Contents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Current Affairs 2017 discoveries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Words to know in 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Potential 2026 and 2030 Olympic Winter Games hosts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Top Google searches in 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Death rates for firearm-related injuries in the United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Pew poll on sexual harrassment and assault . . . . . . . . . . 10 Evil empire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Economy National & Global US business cycle status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 World business cycle status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Duration of US economic expansions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Odds of a US recession in next 12 months . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Jobs & Income Headwinds and tailwinds in 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Index of Utah and United States employment. . . . . . . . . 20 Utah employment growth rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Index of Utah public and private sector employment. . . 22 Labor force participation rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 Change in Utah labor force participation rates. . . . . . . . 24 The productive middle?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Occupations with top location quotients . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Active female physicians as a percent of all active physicians. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Unemployment and labor underutilization . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Labor force statistics for Utah’s population with disabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Proprietor jobs per 100 wage and salary jobs in Utah. . . 30 The silent recession. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Job growth and decline in Utah’s counties. . . . . . . . . . . . 32 The looming question . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Annual change in per capita personal income . . . . . . . . 34
Federal Funds Target Rate and selected interest rates. . . 16 Hutchin’s Center Fiscal Impact Measure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Top corporate income tax rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Editor-in-chief: Juliette Tennert 2
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Real Estate & Construction
Utah’s top export industries and trading partners. . . . . 50
Annual change in Employment Cost Index. . . . . . . . . . . . 35
International visitor spending shares. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Median cumulative days on market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
State and local tax burdens. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52
Median sales price existing single-family homes. . . . . . 37
Hachman Index of GDP diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
New housing units and households in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . 38 Energy and Natural Resources
Demographics Creating our destiny. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Distribution of diverted water in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Projected 50-year population growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
States’ contribution to nation’s total solar power generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Current and projected dependency ratios for Utah’s counties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Portion electric power generation from renewable sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Total fertility rates for Utah and the United States. . . . . 57
Competitiveness Total economic impacts of the defense sector in Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Venture capital deals per $1 million of state GDP. . . . . . 43 Ideal metro location for next Amazon headquarters. . . 44
Hayward and Mitchell rookie season statistics . . . . . . . . 58 Changes in Autism Spectrum Disorder prevalence. . . . 59 Opportunity index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Educational attainment of migrants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Education
Natural Gas Prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Utah high school graduation rates by race and ethnicity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Arts organizations and venues per 100,000 population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Average ACT scores. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Growth and decline in Utah’s school districts. . . . . . . . . . 64
Freight shipments originating in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Fall 2016 USHE enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Workers’ Compensation premium rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Globalization and Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
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Contents (continued) Health and Wellbeing
Fiscal Considerations
Per capita health care expenditures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
State fiscal practices report card. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Health care expenditures as a share of GDP. . . . . . . . . . . 67
Changes in Utah’s sales and income tax bases. . . . . . . . . 75
Percent of population without health insurance . . . . . . 68 Active physicians per 100,000 population. . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Growth in Utah’s economy and major revenue collections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Opioid overdose deaths per 100,000 population. . . . . . 70
US Personal Consumption Distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
Retail opioid prescriptions dispensed per 100 persons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Status of state Medicaid expansion decisions. . . . . . . . . 78
Firearm-related death rates by type. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Number of days air quality index exceeded 100 across the Wasatch Front. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73
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Shedding Light Authentic engagement in public deliberation. . . . . . . . .79 Informed decisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
2017 discoveries n
Dinosaur – The largest-known dinosaur footprint, which is over 130 million years old and five and three-quarters feet long, was found in western Australia.
n
Pig-nosed frog – A new mountain-dwelling purple pig-nosed frog was discovered in India. It spends most of its life underground, only surfacing to mate during rainstorms.
n
Homo sapiens – The oldest-known Homo sapiens bones were found in Morocco and are 300,000 years old, over 100,000 years older than the previous oldest.
n
Egyptian tombs – Two new Egyptian tombs were discovered and excavated which date around 3,400 years old.
n
USS Indianapolis – The wreckage of the USS Indianapolis, a US Navy cruiser, was discovered after having been sunk in 1945.
n
Aztec sports – A 500-year old Aztec ball court was uncovered by archaeologists and is complete with a game area and spectator seating.
n
Viking women – DNA evidence was discovered which proved that Viking women had been warriors at least 1,000 years ago.
n
Cosmic storm – Jupiter’s Great Red Spot – a 350 year-old storm – has increased in size to one-and-a-half times the size of Earth this year after shrinking the past 15 years.
n
Icebergs – A 2,240 square mile iceberg – roughly the size of Utah County – broke off the Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctica.
n
n
Pistol shrimp – A new type of pistol shrimp was discovered near Panama which uses a claw to make such loud noises that surrounding fish can be stunned or even killed. The discoverers named it Synalpheus pinkfloydi, after Pink Floyd, for its volume intensity and deafeningly loud pink claw.
Faux wombs – A faux womb has been invented which helps lambs develop after very premature birth and will likely be used on humans in the near future.
n
Hidden void – Inside the Great Pyramid of Giza, a 100-foot long hidden void was discovered using muon radiography. It is unknown what it contains or how to access it.
n
Living planets – A system of seven Earth-size planets orbiting an ultra-cool dwarf was discovered. NASA believes at least three but likely more contain water and possible life.
n
Ancient tools – The ancient port of Corinth is being excavated to reveal a peek into the Corinthian trade, complete with 2,000-year-old pottery, wooden spoons, pulleys, and other tools.
n
Monster bird – A penguin fossil belonging to a 6 foot and 220 pound bird was found in New Zealand. The extinct species was named Kumimanu bicaeae – “Monster Bird” in Maori.
n
Hospitable planet – A nearly Earth-sized and possibly hospitable planet was discovered only 11 light-years away orbiting a red star.
n
Paralysis cure? – A system which attaches to the brain and transmits intentions to parts of the body could counteract paralysis.
Source: Compiled from public sources by the Kem C. Gardner Institute
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Current Affairs
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Words and phrases to know in 2018 cat·a·lyze \ ˈka-tə-ˌlīz \ to bring about, inspire: The Utah State Prison relocation opens land that can be used to catalyze the growth of the entire area. ci·vil·i·ty \ sə-ˈvi-lə-tē \ ability to disagree productively with others, respecting their sincerity and decency: Utahns value civility in the public square. cour·age \ ˈkər-ij \ mental or moral strength to venture, persevere, and withstand danger, fear, or difficulty: She had the courage to speak truth to power. dil·i·gence \ ˈdi-lə-jən(t)s \ steady, earnest, and energetic effort: The Federal Reserve continues to demonstrate diligence in normalizing interest rates. dis·ci·pline \ ˈdi-sə-plən \ orderly or prescribed conduct or pattern of behavior: Fiscal discipline remains an important priority to many congressmen and senators. eight straight \ ˈāt ˈstrāt \ an 8-game rivalry winning streak: Most agree that eight straight is a 2018 inevitable in the Utah-BYU matchup.
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Current Affairs
grit \ ˈgrit \ firmness of mind or spirit; unyielding courage in the face of hardship or danger: The first responders showed their grit in rescuing concert goers on the Vegas strip. in·teg·ri·ty \ in-ˈte-grə-tē \ the quality of being honest: Utahns value integrity in their elected officials. light \ ˈlīt \ something that makes vision possible: The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute sheds light for Utah decision makers, not heat. pub·lic vir·tue \ ˈpə-blik ˈvər-(ˌ)chü \ a desire to achieve the common good: Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, Speaker Greg Hughes, Mayor McAdams and Mayor Biskupski applied public virtue in addressing homeless services. re·sil·ience \ ri-ˈzil-yən(t)s \ an ability to recover from or adjust to misfortune or change: The eleven rural Utah counties that have lost jobs since 2007 continue to show economic resilience because of the hardworking people.
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Who will host the 2026 and 2030 Olympic Winter Games?
Reno-Tahoe
Calgary, Canada
Sion, Switzerland
Sapporo, Japan
Denver
Salt Lake City
Source: Utah Olympic Legacy Foundation
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Current Affairs
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Signs of our times Top US Google searches in 2017 Searches
People
1) Hurricane Irma 2) Matt Lauer 3) Tom Petty 4) Super Bowl 5) Las Vegas shooting 6) Mayweather vs McGregor fight 7) Solar eclipse 8) Hurricane Harvey 9) Aaron Hernandez 10) Fidget Spinner
1) Matt Lauer 2) Meghan Markle 3) Harvey Weinstein 4) Michael Flynn 5) Kevin Spacey 6) Bill O’Reilly 7) Melania Trump 8) Kathy Griffin 9) Milo Yiannopoulos 10) Gal Gadot
What is...
News
1) What is DACA? 2) What is Bitcoin? 3) What is a solar eclipse? 4) What is ANTIFA? 5) What is net neutrality? 6) What is covfefe? 7) What is the antikythera mechanism? 8) What is a fidget spinner? 9) What is the Paris Climate Agreement? 10) What is a hurricane?
1) Hurricane Irma 2) Las Vegas shooting 3) Solar Eclipse 4) Hurricane Harvey 5) Bitcoin Price 6) North Korea 7) Hurricane Jose 8) Hurricane Maria 9) April the Giraffe 10) DACA
Source: Google
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Current Affairs
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Firearm-related deaths on the rise Death rates for firearm-related injuries in the United States Deaths per 100,000 resident population, all ages, age-adjusted
14.3
14.8
14.6
11.8 11.1
1970
1980
1990
10.2
10.1
10.3
2000
2010
2014
2015
2016
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics Health, United States, 2016 Report and Mortality Dashboard
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Current Affairs
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Pew survey suggests many Americans believe reports of sexual misconduct reflect societal problems Percent of Americans who say recent allegations of sexual harrassment and assault are:
Mainly incidents of individual misconduct Mainly reflective of widespread problems in society
Gender
Total
Men
28%
34%
60%
Women
22%
Political Affiliation
Education
College grad + Some college HS or less
Rep/Lean Rep Dem/Lean Dem
66%
71%
19% 33%
77% 63%
31%
34%
60%
61% 25%
70%
Note: Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center Survey of U.S. adults conducted November 29 - December 4, 2017
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Current Affairs
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Ronald Reagan Evil Empire Speech, March 8, 1983
“While America’s military strength is important, let me add here that I’ve always maintained that the struggle now going on for the world will never be decided by bombs or rockets, by armies or military might. The real crisis we face today is a spiritual one; at root, it is a test of moral will and faith.” Ronald Reagan
Source: Remarks at the Annual Convention of the National Association of Evangelicals in Orlando, Florida, March 8, 1983.
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Current Affairs
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State economies continue to expand, mostly Business cycle status, end of 2017
Expanding Recovering At risk In recession
Source: Moody’s Analytics
12
Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Synchronized global expansion Business cycle status, end of 2017
n Expanding n Recovering n At risk n In Recession
Source: Moody’s Analytics
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
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Come May, US economic expansion second longest ever Duration of US economic expansions (Average annual job growth rate)
October 1945
37 months (5.1%)
October 1949
45 months (4.3%)
Expansion Start Date
May 1954
39 months (2.5%)
April 1958
24 months (3.6%)
February 1961
106 months (3.2%)
November 1970
36 months (3.4%)
March 1975
58 months (3.5%)
December 1982
92 months (2.8%)
March 1991
120 months (2.0%)
November 2001
73 months (0.9%)
July 2009
102 months as of Jan. 2018 (1.4%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Months
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Bureau of Economic Research and Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics data
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Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Economists and their crystal balls‌ Odds of a US recession in next 12 months
30% 27.3%
25% 21.9%
20%
15%
14.6%
10%
5%
0%
Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
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Normalizing monetary policy, finally Federal funds target rate and selected interest rates
6.0% Federal Funds
5.5%
3-Month Treasury Bill
10-Year Treasury Note
30-Year Fixed Forecast
5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5%
2018:4
2018:3
2018:2
2018:1
2017:4
2017:3
2017:2
2017:1
2016:4
2016:3
2016:2
2016:1
2015:4
2015:3
2015:2
2015:1
2014:4
2014:3
2014:2
2014:1
2013:4
2013:3
2013:2
2013:1
2012:4
2012:3
2012:2
2012:1
0.0%
Source: IHS Global Insight
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Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Government fiscal policy had minimal impacts on the US economy in 2017 Hutchin’s Center Fiscal Impact Measure Combined effect of federal, state and local spending and tax policies on US GDP growth
+3.0%
Quarterly impact 4-quarter moving average
Positive impact: government is contributing to GDP growth
+2.5% +2.0% +1.5% +1.0%
0 -0.5% -1.0%
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
-1.5% 2001
Negative impact: government is restraining GDP growth
+0.5%
Source: Brookings Institution Hutchin’s Center Fiscal Impact Measure Q3 2017 Update
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
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US corporate tax rate an outlier Top corporate income tax rates, 2017 Arranged by GDP
60.0% G7, China, Mexico All other countries 50.0% United States 40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0% GDP < $100 Billion
$100 Billion < GDP < $1 Trillion
$1 Trillion < GDP
Note: Combined national and subnational rates. Source: KPMG Corporate Tax Rate Table and Congressional Budget Office International Comparisons of Corporate Income Tax Rates report
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Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Headwinds and tailwinds in 2018
“Despite positive trends in the economy, there are headwinds. Rising business costs, a tight labor supply, and a shortage of housing are creating growth challenges. The consensus forecast of state economists predicts moderating – but still healthy – job and wage growth, low unemployment, and continuing net in-migration.” Natalie Gochnour
Source: Utah Business Magazine, October 26, 2017
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
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Utah nearly two years ahead of nation in expansion Index of Utah and United States employment 100 = December 2007 pre-recession peak employment
120
110 Nov-12 100 May-14 90
80
70 Utah United States 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017
60
Note: Y-axis does not start at zero. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employer Survey data and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data
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Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Recent job growth postings dip below historical average Deviation of Utah employment growth rate from historical average
5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% -8.0% -9.0% 2017
2016
2014
2013
2012
2010
2009
2008
2006
2005
2004
2002
2001
2000
1998
1997
1996
1994
1993
1992
1990
1989
1988
1986
1985
1984
1982
1981
1980
-10.0%
Note: The long-term average annual employment growth rate since 1960 is 3.1%. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employer Survey data and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
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As weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;d expectâ&#x20AC;Ś Index of Utah public and private sector employment 100 = Average monthly employment in 1997
160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70
Private Sector Public Sector 1990 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
60
Note: Y-axis does not start at zero. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employer Survey data and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data
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Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Demographics, economics, and changing labor force participation Labor force participation rates
Percent of the population aged 16 and over in the labor force
76.0%
Utah United States
74.0%
72.0%
70.0%
68.0%
66.0%
64.0%
62.0%
60.0%
Note: Y-axis does not start at zero. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
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Shifting labor force participation dynamics Change in Utah labor force participation rates, 1997-2017 By selected working-age groups
Males
18.1%*
Females
11.4%* 8.3%*
3.9%
2.9%
-1.7% -4.2%
-1.7%*
-2.1% -1.7%
-3.7%* -6.3%* -8.3%*
-12.6%*
-11.6%*
16-17
-10.8%*
18-19
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
*Statistically different from zero. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of IPUMS Current Population Survey data (Steven Ruggles, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Josiah Grover, and Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 7.0 [dataset]. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota, 2017)
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Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
The productive middle?
“…The future of this country is not going to be found in protecting jobs that are long gone or in catering to the fears of aging whites. There is a raging need for a movement that embraces economic dynamism, global engagement and social support — that is part Milton Friedman on economic policy, Ronald Reagan on foreign policy and Franklin Roosevelt on welfare policy.” David Brookes
Source: “The Future of the American Center,” New York Times, Nov. 29, 2016
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
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Concentration of occupations in Utah Occupations with top location quotients
Salt Lake St. City George
ProvoOrem
OgdenClear eld
Logan
State of Utah
State of Utah and its metropolitan statistical areas
Forest and Conservation Technicians
4.6
Roof Bolters, Mining
4.7
Audio-Visual and Multimedia Collections Specialists
4.9
Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers
23.8
Food Batchmakers
10.8
Helpers--Painters, Paperhangers, Plasterers, and Stucco Masons
9.1
Tax Examiners and Collectors, and Revenue Agents
17.4
Computer and Information Research Scientists Tapers
8.0 6.9
Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports O cials Audio-Visual and Multimedia Collections Specialists Foundry Mold and Coremakers
13.6 7.7 6.6
Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks Metal-Re ning Furnace Operators and Tenders Mining and Geological Engineers, Including Mining Safety Engineers
8.7 6.8 6.3
Audio-Visual and Multimedia Collections Specialists Residential Advisors Tour Guides and Escorts
9.8 8.2 7.3
Note: Location quotients (LQs) measure a regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s occupational concentration relative the nation. For example, with an LQ of 4.6, Forest and Conservation Technicians are more than 4 times more concentrated in Utah than nationally. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Employment Statistics May 2016 data
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Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Less than a quarter of Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s doctors are women Active female physicians as a percent of all active physicians, 2016 United States = 34.6%
WA 37.3% MT 29.4% OR 38.0%
ID 25.1% WY 25.4%
NV 27.9%
UT 23.8%
CA 36.4%
AZ 31.5%
VT 40.2%
ND 29.5%
MN 36.1% WI 33.7%
SD 30.8% NE 31.2%
CO 37.4%
NM 37.4%
KS 32.1% OK 29.0%
TX 33.9%
AK 37.3%
ME 35.5%
IA 31.0%
MI 33.9%
NH 34.9% MA 41.3% RI 39.8%
NY 37.9% PA 34.1%
OH IN 33.8% IL WV 37.7% 30.6% 28.9% VA MO KY 36.7% 33.0% 30.4% NC TN 34.2% 29.3% AR SC 27.0% 30.3% AL GA MS 34.1% 26.0% 27.2% LA 30.4%
CT 36.9% NJ 35.9% DE 37.5% MD 39.7% DC 46.8%
< 30.0% 30.0% - 34.9%
FL 29.4%
35.0% - 39.9% 40.0% +
HI 33.7%
Source: American Medical Association 2017 State Physician Workforce Data Report
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
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Unemployment and underemployment shrinking Alternative measures of unemployment and labor underutilization Percent of labor force, 4-quarter moving average
18%
Involuntary part-time Discouraged and other marginally-attached workers
16%
Headline unemployment
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2%
2017 Q2
2016 Q4
2016 Q2
2015 Q4
2015 Q2
2014 Q4
2014 Q2
2013 Q4
2013 Q2
2012 Q4
2012 Q2
2011 Q4
2011 Q2
2010 Q4
2010 Q2
2009 Q4
2009 Q2
2008 Q4
2008 Q2
2007 Q4
2007 Q2
2006 Q4
2006 Q2
2005 Q4
2005 Q2
2004 Q4
2004 Q2
2003 Q4
0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment Statistics
28
Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population with disabilities and the labor force Labor force statistics for Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population with disabilities, 2016
Population with Disabilities: Ages 18-64
159,024
L A B O R F O R C E S TAT I S T I C S
74,767 + 8,841 = 83,608 Employed
Unemployed
10.6% Jobless Rate
in Labor Force
52.6%
Labor Force Participation Rate
75, 416 Not in Labor Force
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
29
The rise of the self-employed Proprietor jobs per 100 wage and salary jobs in Utah 1970s average = 16.1, 2010 -2016 average = 30.8
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
5
Note: Proprietors include sole proprietorships, partnerships, and tax-exempt cooperatives. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Annual Personal Income data
30
Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
The silent recession
“This story of a tale of two Utahs has emerged, where economic growth in our state’s urban areas has caused our state economy to range among the very best economies in the nation, all while there are many rural economies in our state that are actually experiencing decline. Policies that can alleviate this trend include encouraging greater economic diversity and then also cultivating and leveraging existing comparative advantage in rural agriculture, energy, manufacturing, and tourism markets.” Juliette Tennert
Source: “Utah’s Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections” Video, produced by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, Nov. 16, 2017
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
31
The tale of two Utahs Job growth and decline in Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s counties Change in employment since 2007 peak, Q4 2007 - Q4 2016
CACHE 12.7%
BOX ELDER -3.2%
RICH -1.9%
WEBER 8.3% DAVIS MORGAN 1.8% 20.0%
TOOELE 3.4%
SALT LAKE 14.1%
UTAH 26.9%
More jobs than 2007 Less jobs than 2007 DAGGETT -19.8%
SUMMIT 18.0%
WASATCH 11.5%
JUAB -1.8%
DUCHESNE 1.5%
UINTAH -16.9%
CARBON -11.9% SANPETE 1.9%
MILLARD 5.1%
EMERY -22.2%
GRAND 14.3%
SEVIER 3.7% BEAVER 8.1%
PIUTE -24.7%
IRON 4.6%
WASHINGTON 15.3%
WAYNE -10.5%
GARFIELD -1.3%
SAN JUAN -3.2%
KANE 4.8%
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data
32
Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
The looming question Handwritten note shared by a rural Utah legislator with the Gardner Policy Institute Director
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
33
Per capita income growth fastest in the nation Annual change in per capita personal income United States = 2.1%
WA 2.9% OR 2.4%
MT 1.1% ID 1.6% WY -2.1%
CA 3.0%
NV 1.0%
UT 3.1%
AZ 2.0%
VT 2.3%
ND -1.6%
MN 1.7%
SD 0.4%
WI 1.7%
NE 0.9% CO 0.2%
NM 1.3%
KS 0.5% OK -2.9%
TX -1.2%
AK -1.6%
MO 1.3% AR 1.8%
LA -1.3%
IN IL 1.9% 3.0%
OH 1.8%
NH 2.6% MA 2.2%
NY 1.8%
MI 2.7%
IA 0.6%
ME 2.9%
PA 1.9%
WV 0.2% VA KY 1.5% 1.2% NC TN 2.1% 2.8% SC 1.9% AL GA MS 2.1% 1.8% 2.8%
FL 1.1%
HI 3.1%
RI 1.3% CT 1.4% NJ 2.1%
DE 1.7% MD DC 3.2% 2.7%
decline 0-0% - 1.9% 2.0% - 2.9% 3.0% +
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Annual Personal Income data
34
Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Benefit growth outpaced wage growth during the first half of the current expansion Annual change in US Employment Cost Index
4.0%
Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Cost Index
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
35
A sellerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s market Median cumulative days on market Single-family home listings in Wasatch Front counties
2014
2015
2016
2017
61
46
45
36
36
33 26 27 21
20
18
14 10
First Quarter
16
15
9
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter
Source: UtahRealEstate.com
36
Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
How high can they go? Median sales price for existing single-family homes
$350,000 United States
Utah
Nevada
Arizona
Idaho
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
Source: Moodyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Analytics
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
37
Does Utah have a housing shortage? New housing units and households in Utah
Households Housing Units 201,126 175,077 176,411
157,744 164,008
156,324
150,669 108,635
105,980 88,670
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010-2017
Note: 2017 data are estimated. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Population Projections and Ivory Boyer Construction Database
38
Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Agriculture is Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest user of diverted water Distribution of diverted water in Utah Acre feet per year
Agriculture 4,200,000
Manufacturing and Industry 952,000 Public Community Systems 717,000 Residential 509,000
Public Non-Community Systems 220,000 Domestic Wells 15,000 Commercial 97,000 Institutional 85,000 Industrial 26,000
Outdoor (non-potable) 143,000 Outdoor (potable) 188,000 Indoor 178,000
Source: Governorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Office of Management and Budget
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
39
Utah ranks 7th in solar energy generation States’ contribution to nation’s total solar thermal and photovoltaic net electric power generation, 2017
WA 0.0% OR 0.4%
MT 0.0% ID 1.0% WY 0.0%
CA 44.2%
NV 7.2%
UT 3.8%
AZ 9.1%
MN 1.3%
SD 0.0%
WI 0.1%
NE 0.0% CO 1.8%
NM 2.1%
KS 0.0% OK 0.0%
TX 3.9%
AK 0.0%
ME 0.0%
VT 0.2%
ND 0.0%
IA 0.0%
MO 0.1% AR 0.1%
LA 0.0%
NH 0.0% MA 1.8%
NY 0.4%
MI 0.1%
RI 0.0% CT 0.1%
PA 0.2%
OH IN 0.2% IL WV 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% VA KY 0.6% 0.0% NC TN 10.5% 0.3% SC 0.2% AL GA MS 0.4% 4.1% 0.1%
NJ 2.2%
DE 0.1% MD DC 0.5% 0.0%
FL 1.4%
HI 0.4%
none < 1% 1.0% - 2.9% 3.0% - 4.9% 5.0% - 9.9% 10% +
Note: 2017 data represents activity through September, 2017. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration state electricity data
40
Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Utah closes in on US renewable average Portion of Utah net electric power generation that is from renewable sources, excluding conventional hydroelectric
10.0% 9.0% 8.0%
Other Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic Wind Geothermal
7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0%
United States, renewable sources
2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration state electricity data
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
41
The economic bootprint of Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s defense industry Total economic impacts of the defense industry in Utah, 2015
$9.2B GDP 6.2% of UT
$6.4B Earnings 7.1% of UT
109,000 Jobs 5.8% of UT
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
42
Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Utah on the map for venture capital Venture capital deals per $1 million of state GDP Year-to-date activity through Q3 2017
WA $2,603 OR $500
CA $9,700
NV $508
MT $973
ID $1,784
UT $3,983
AZ $535
WY $16
VT $225
ND $69
MN $668
SD $17 NE $443
CO $3,214
NM $603
KS $33 OK $3
TX $826
AK $0
IA $145
WI $261
MI $287
ME $3,774 NH $670 MA $9,082 RI $3,199
NY $5,501 PA $746
OH IN $849 IL WV $1,723 $190 $17 VA MO KY $739 $477 $371 NC TN $1,450 $137 AR SC $111 $1,326 AL MS GA $198 $0 $2,046 LA $274 FL $1,665
CT $680
NJ $729 DE $730
MD $1,275 DC $2,643
< $500 $500 - $2,499 $2,500 - $4,999 $5,000 +
HI $0
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of PwC Moneytree Report and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
43
Salt Lake makes Moodys’ Amazon HQ2 location top 10 Moody’s scoring of ideal metro location for next Amazon headquarters
Metro
Average Score
Austin-Round Rock, TX
3.1
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
3.1
Philadelphia, PA
3.1
Rochester, NY
3.0
Pittsburgh, PA
3.0
New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ
3.0
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL
2.9
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA
2.9
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
2.9
Boston, MA
2.9
Salt Lake City, UT
2.9
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA
2.9
Note: Score is based on assessments of business environment, human capital, cost, quality of life, transportation, and geography. A perfect score would be 5. Source: Moody’s Analytics
44
Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Utah has the lowest workers’ compensation premium rates in the west Workers’ compensation premium rates, 2016 Percent of payroll
California
3.24%
Washington
1.97%
New Mexico
1.92%
Wyoming
1.87%
Idaho
1.79%
Colorado
1.56%
Arizona Nevada
1.50% 1.31%
Oregon
1.28%
Utah
1.27%
Source: Oregon Workers’ Compensation Premium Rate Ranking Calendar Year 2016, December 2016
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
45
Utah natural gas prices among the lowest in the nation Natural Gas Prices, September 2017 $ per thousand cubic feet
WA $13.81 MT $10.53 OR $14.91
ID $9.42 WY $15.04
NV $12.81 CA $12.29
UT $10.38
AZ $22.16
ND $15.63
MN $12.06
NE $17.29 CO $12.15
NM $14.53
KS $21.4 OK $26.66
ME $23.14 NH $24.8
WI $13.59
SD $14.72
TX $22.1
AK $12.14
VT $20.96
IA $17.45
MI $12.11
NY $17.98 PA $17.52
OH IN IL $23.5 $16.65 $17.62 WV $14.13 VA MO KY $21.38 $25.33 $22.77 NC TN $23.08 $17.42 AR SC $20.37 $25.13 AL GA MS $18.15 $22.98 $29.12 LA $16.6
MA $15.42 RI $19.93 CT $21.76 NJ $11.59 DE $24.57 MD $20.03 DC $20.23
< $12.00 $12.01 - $16.00 $16.01 - $20.00
FL $26.45
$20.01 - $24.00 > 24.00
HI $39.98
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration natural gas data
46
Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Got art? Arts organizations and venues per 100,000 population (none on record) CACHE
1.0 - 4.9
RICH
BOX ELDER
5.0 - 9.9 10.0 - 19.9
WEBER DAVIS
20.0 +
MORGAN SUMMIT
DAGGETT
SALT LAKE TOOELE
WASATCH DUCHESNE UINTAH
UTAH
JUAB
CARBON SANPETE
MILLARD
EMERY
GRAND
SEVIER
BEAVER
PIUTE
IRON
WAYNE
GARFIELD SAN JUAN
WASHINGTON
KANE
Source: Kem C. Policy Institute, Utah Division of Arts & Museums, Utah Cultural Alliance
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
47
Utah ships over $100 billion in freight annually Freight shipments originating from Utah (Value of freight)
Destination share by shipment value (includes all modes of transportation)
Multiple 22%
In-State
37%
California
11%
Texas
5%
Idaho
4%
Nevada
4%
Montana
2%
All other states Total value ($116 billion)
Air 4% Pipeline 4% Rail 5% Truck 66%
38% 100%
Note: Pipeline shipments exclude crude petroleum. Multiple modes of transportation includes parcel, USPS, courier, truck-rail, truck-water, rail-water, and other. Air includes truck-air. For international exports from Utah, destinations are recorded as the state from which freight left the U.S. The total value of freight shipped from Utah is inflation-adjusted to 2017 dollars. Source: U.S. Department of Transportation and U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 Commodity Flow Survey
48
Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Globalization and Utah
â&#x20AC;&#x153;While some may portray free trade and open borders as threatening, the data suggest such a negative view is not warranted for Utah. Overall, the state economy has seen positive effects from globalization.â&#x20AC;? James Wood
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
49
Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s global reach Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s top export industries and trading partners Value of exports, $ millions
Largest Export Industries
2016
2015 $1,718 $2,121
Computers & Electronics Chemicals Food Transportation Equipment Miscellaneous Manufactures Machinery Electrical Equipment Fabricated Metals Plastics & Rubber
Largest Export Countries
$4,854 $5,563
Primary Metals $1,063 $1,095 $922 $933 $866 $812 $702 $635 $498 $522 $372 $332 $174 $199 $162 $178
United Kingdom Hong Kong Canada Mexico China Taiwan Japan Netherlands Germany South Korea
$1,507 $1,947 $1,323 $1,492
$3,074 $3,037
$741 $854 $648 $841 $610 $710 $504 $548 $448 $365 $343 $266 $318 $377
Source: USA Trade Online
50
Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Asian visitors have replaced Europeans as the biggest spenders in Utah International visitor spending shares
Europe
Asia
North America (Non-U.S.)
South America
Australia
Africa
100% 90% 80% 70% 60%
21.6%
20.2%
24.0% 26.2%
50%
33.2%
33.7%
36.4%
39.4%
42.6%
46.2%
2015
2017(f)
2019(f)
2021(f)
2023(f)
2025(f)
40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007
2009
2011
2013
(f ) = forecast Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Tourism Economics data
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
51
Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s tax burden better than US average, higher than 4 of 5 surrounding states State and local tax collections as a percent of total personal income United States average = 10.6%
WA 9.9% OR 10.7%
MT 9.5% ID 9.4% WY 9.2%
CA 10.7%
NV 10.7%
UT 9.8%
AZ 9.1%
ND 10.1%
MN 11.9%
NM 10.0%
KS 9.2% OK 8.0%
TX 8.4%
AK 8.6% HI 13.1%
WI 10.5%
SD 8.1% NE 10.0%
CO 8.9%
VT 12.1%
MI 9.4%
IA 10.0% IN IL 11.4% 9.4%
OH 10.1%
NH 8.2% MA 10.5%
NY 15.3%
PA 10.1%
WV MO 10.5% VA KY 8.4% 8.4% 10.0% NC TN 9.4% 7.7% AR SC 10.2% 9.2% AL GA MS 8.7% 10.3% 8.1% LA 9.2%
ME 11.6%
FL 7.9%
RI 11.5% CT 11.3%
NJ 11.3% DE 10.3% MD 10.8%
< 80% of US average 81% - 90% of US 91% - 99% of US US +/- 1% 101% - 110% of US 111% to 120% of US > 120% of US
Notes: Collections for all state and local taxes, including payroll taxes, except for severance taxes. Data are for the most recent year available, 2014. Sources: Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Census Bureau Survey of State and Local Finances data and Bureau of Economic Analysis data
52
Economy
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Utah’s economy among the most diverse in the nation Hachman Index of GDP diversity, 2016
WA 89.7 OR 87.5
MT 83.7
ND 57.4
ID 81.9 WY 27.4
CA 93.9
NV 63.0
UT 96.3
AZ 95.5
MN 94.9
SD 63.9
WI 92.7
NE 71.9 CO 93.7
NM 65.7
KS 93.2 OK 61.5
TX 77.8
AK 36.3 HI 72.5
ME 91.0
VT 91.6
MO 97.0 AR 88.9
LA 84.1
NY 80.6
MI 92.5
IA 75.8 IN IL 96.2 76.1
NH 95.0 MA 90.6
OH 94.2
PA 95.7
WV 55.1 VA KY 89.6 90.2 NC TN 92.7 92.3 SC 91.1 AL GA MS 96.0 86.9 90.9
CT 91.8
RI 88.4
NJ 93.4
DE 54.8
MD 87.3 DC 48.1
< 75.0 75.0 - 84.9 85.0 - 89.9
FL 92.1
90.0 - 94.9 95.0 +
Note: An index value of 100 would mean that a state’s distribution of GDP among 20 sectors perfectly mirrors the nation. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Economy
53
Creating our destiny
“We’re living in times of tremendous growth and change. The dynamic for change will only become more intensified as time goes on. What we need to recognize is that our actions today will shape the future that we have tomorrow. You know, the future is not given. We are active participants in, not just witnesses to, the great changes that are going on, and the actions we take today very purposefully will impact our future.” Pamela Perlich
Source: “Utah’s Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections” Video, produced by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, Nov. 16, 2017
54
Demographics
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Washington Countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population expected to triple by 2065 Projected 50-year population growth, 2015-2065 State of Utah growth = 94.4% < 50.0% CACHE 92.6%
BOX ELDER 62.8%
WEBER 60.4% DAVIS MORGAN 62.1% 122.1%
TOOELE 112.2%
50.0% - 74.9%
RICH 43.7%
SALT LAKE 54.7%
75.0% - 99.9% 100.0% - 149.9% 150.0% + DAGGETT 54.9%
SUMMIT 80.1%
WASATCH 186.6%
DUCHESNE 59.2%
UTAH 176.6% JUAB 171.6%
UINTAH 54.5%
CARBON 56.6% SANPETE 70.5%
MILLARD 42.1%
EMERY 44.1%
GRAND 51.6%
SEVIER 54.4% BEAVER 43.8%
PIUTE 31.7%
IRON 81.4%
WASHINGTON 229.2%
WAYNE 51.6%
GARFIELD 45.4%
SAN JUAN 46.6%
KANE 57.4%
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2017 Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Demographics
55
A grayer and grayer Utah Current and projected dependency ratios for Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s counties
2016
2065 Statewide Average: 69.2
CACHE 67.6
BOX ELDER 81.6
RICH 90.6
WEBER 67.7 DAVIS MORGAN 76.7 75.0
TOOELE 72.6
SALT LAKE 62.2
UTAH 71.7
Statewide Average: 79.8 BOX ELDER 93.6
70.0 - 79.9 80.0 - 89.9
DAGGETT 83.1
SUMMIT 54.3
WASATCH 72.9
DUCHESNE 86.0
TOOELE 87.1
UTAH 76.3
SANPETE 67.5
EMERY 84.2
GRAND 64.3
BEAVER 85.6
PIUTE 100.9
IRON 67.7
WASHINGTON 89.3
KANE 83.8
DAGGETT 93.1
WASATCH 83.1
DUCHESNE 99.0
UINTAH 92.5
SANPETE 65.2
EMERY 86.5
GRAND 86.3
SEVIER 97.4 BEAVER 92.6
WAYNE 89.0
GARFIELD 81.5
90.0 + SUMMIT 94.6
CARBON 89.6
MILLARD 91.2
SEVIER 84.9
70.0 - 79.9 80.0 - 89.9
JUAB 85.3
CARBON 74.3
MILLARD 84.3
SALT LAKE 76.0
UINTAH 78.0
< 70.0
RICH 90.5
WEBER 81.8 DAVIS MORGAN 83.7 82.9
90.0 +
JUAB 86.9
CACHE 69.1
< 70.0
PIUTE 94.5
IRON 71.3
GARFIELD 94.7
SAN JUAN 75.0 WASHINGTON 95.5
WAYNE 91.6
SAN JUAN 84.6
KANE 99.6
Note: The dependency ratio shows the number of nonworking-age persons (aged less than 18 and over 64) per 100 working-age adults (aged 18-64). Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015-2065 State and County Projections
56
Demographics
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Fertility since the Great Recessionâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; a pregnant pause or birth of a new normal? Total fertility rates for Utah and the United States
4.00
Utah United States
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00 Great Recession: Q1 2008 - Q2 2009
1.50
1.00 1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Demographics
57
Gordon who? Gordon Hayward and Donovan Mitchell Rookie season statistics
83%
81%
2.7
35%
2.1
15.5
15.6
29% 1.7 1.1
Free Throw %
Three Point %
Average Steals per game
Gordon Hayward
Average Assists per game
Average Points per game
Donovan Mitchell
Note: Donovan Mitchell stats are through Dec. 12, 2017. Source: RealGM.com
58
Demographics
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Autism prevalence rises throughout childhood and into adolescence Changes in ASD prevalence in the 1994 birth cohort Four-county surveillance area in Utah
35 Female Male 30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2.2
9.8
2002 Age 8
3.1 14.2
4.1 18.3
5.2 23.8
7.2 29.7
2004 Age 10
2006 Age 12
2008 Age 14
2010 Age 16
Notes: Bars represent 95% confidence intervals; the four-county surveillance area included Davis, Salt Lake, Utah, and Tooele counties. Source: Utah Registry of Autism and Developmental Disabilities
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Demographics
59
SLCâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Ballpark neighborhood lacks opportunity Opportunity Index Salt Lake City, 2015
Opportunity Index Index Number
4 - 6, Moderate
1 - 2, Very Low
6 - 8, High
2 - 4, Low
8 - 10, Very High
Salt Lake City
0 0.5 1
2
3
Miles 4
Note: The opportunity index is calculated using nine variables: poverty rate, labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, public assistance rate, educational attainment, percent eligible for free and reduced lunch, percent homeowners, percent of owner occupied households with severe housing cost burden, and percent of renter households with severe housing cost burden. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
60
Demographics
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Is Utah a net education exporter? Portion of Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s prime working age out- and in-migrants with a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree or higher, 2011-2015
47.8%
Out-migrants
43.3%
In-migrants
Notes: The population considered to be of prime working age is between the ages of 25 and 54. Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean estimates, which are statistically different for each migrant group. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau 2015 5-Year American Community Survey data
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
Demographics
61
Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s achievement gap persists, but improving Utah high school graduation rates by race and ethnicity
90%
85%
83%
84%
85%
86%
81%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
All Students Asian White Pacific Islander Hispanic/Latino American Indian African American/Black
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Note: Y-axis does not start at zero. Source: Utah State Board of Education 2017 Graduation Rates Report
62
Education
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ACT scores are lower than the national average, reflects 100% of students taking the test Average ACT scores, 2017 100% of Utah students take test, national average is 60%
Utah United States 21.4 21.0 20.7
21.0
20.8 20.6
20.3
20.3 19.9
19.5
English
Mathematics
Reading
Science
Composite
Source: ACT
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Growth and decline in Utah school districts Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest school districts and those with the most growth and decline
Most Growth
Alpine Charters Davis Granite Jordan Canyons Nebo Weber Washington Salt Lake Cache Tooele Charters S. Summit Wasatch N. Sanpete Morgan Washington Cache Alpine Jordan
Most Decline
Largest Districts
Change between 2016â&#x20AC;&#x201C;17 and 2017-18 school years
Park City Granite San Juan Tintic Piute Grand Logan Ogden Provo Daggett
22,845 17,895
33,907 32,809 31,957 30,015
53,519
78,853 75,566 71,908 66,024
12.7% 5.7% 4.8% 3.3% 3.3% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% -1.5% -1.7% -1.7% -2.0% -2.1% -2.2% -2.9% -3.7% -10.4% -10.9%
Source: Utah State Board of Education, Data and Statistics
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Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
About a quarter of public higher ed students come from out of state Fall 2016 Enrollment (End-of-Term Headcount)
4,729 1,771
Share of In-state Students Less than 1% 1% to 2% 2% to 10% 10% to 37%
100
10,734 583 18,568
28
1,512
Not Available 9% Outside U.S. 4% Other U.S. 13%
48,938 2,201
1,382
475 547
25,345 542
869 1,441
644
433
246
1,003 304
66
2,722
In-State 74% (see Utah map for counties)
124
223 501
6,604
272
Note: While 74 percent of public higher eduation students are from Utah, 87 percent have resident status. Students at public technical colleges and at private colleges and universities in Utah are not included. Source: Utah System of Higher Education, 2017 Data Book
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Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s relatively young and healthy population spends less on health care than other states... Per capita health care expenditures, 2014 United States = $8,045
WA $7,913 MT $8,221 OR $8,044
ID $6,927 WY $8,320
NV $6,714 CA $7,549
UT $5,982
AZ $6,452
ND $9,851
MN $8,871
SD $8,933 NE $8,412
CO $6,804
NM $7,214
KS $7,651 OK $7,627
TX $6,998
AK $11,064
VT $10,190
ME $9,531 NH $9,589
WI $8,702
IA $8,200
MI $8,055
NY $9,778
MA $10,559 RI $9,551
PA $9,258
OH IN $8,712 IL $8,262 $8,300 WV $9,462 VA MO KY $7,556 $8,107 $8,004 NC TN $7,264 $7,372 AR SC $7,408 $7,311 AL GA MS $7,646 $7,281 $6,587 LA $7,815
CT $9,859 NJ $8,859 DE $10,254 MD $8,602 DC $11,944
< $7,000 $7,000 - $7,999 $8,000 - $8,999
FL $8,076
$9,000 - $9,999 $10,000 +
HI $7,299
Source: The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation
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Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
...But more on health care than other countries, with implications for global competitiveness Health care expenditures as a share of GDP, 2016 Select OECD Countries and Utah United States
17.2%
Utah
12.4%
Germany
11.2%
Sweden
11.0%
France
11.0%
Japan
10.9%
Canada
10.6%
Norway
10.5%
Belgium
10.4%
Denmark
10.4%
Austria
10.4%
United Kingdom
9.7%
Australia
9.6%
Finland
9.3%
New Zealand
9.2%
Spain
9.0%
Italy
8.9%
Israel Mexico
7.4% 5.8%
Note: Utah data is for 2014. Sources: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group
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13 states have a higher uninsured rate than Utah; 26 have a lower rate Percent of population without health insurance, 2016 United States = 8.6%
WA 6.0% MT 8.1% OR 6.2%
ID 10.1% WY 11.5%
NV 11.4% CA 7.3%
UT 8.8%
AZ 10.0%
VT 3.7%
ND 7.0%
MN 4.1%
SD 8.7%
WI 5.3%
NE 8.6% CO 7.5%
NM 9.2%
KS 8.7% OK 13.8%
IA 4.3% IL 6.5% MO 8.9%
AR 7.9%
NY 6.1%
MI 5.4%
OH 5.6%
IN 8.1%
PA 5.6% WV 5.3%
KY 5.1%
VA 8.7% NC 10.4%
TN 9.0% AL MS 11.8% 9.1%
TX 16.6%
AK 14.0%
ME 8.0%
CT 4.9% NJ 8.0% DE 5.7% MD 6.1%
NH 5.9% MA 2.5% RI 4.3%
DC 3.9%
SC 10.0% GA 12.9%
LA 10.3% FL 12.5%
HI 3.5%
Rate lower than Utah* Rate not statistically different from Utah Rate higher than Utah*
*Rate is statistically different from Utah with 90 percent confidence. Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2016 1-year estimates
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Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Healthy population or physician shortage? Active physicians per 100,000 population, 2016
Utah United States median 257.6
209.4 (ranks 44th)
90.8 64.7 (ranks 49th)
Active Physicians
Active Primary Care Physicians
Source: American Medical Association 2017 State Physician Workforce Data Report
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“Opidemic” in Utah Opioid overdose deaths per 100,000 population United States = 10.4
WA 9.3 MT 5.0 OR 7.9
ND 4.8
ID 6.0
CA 4.9
UT 15.9
AZ 10.2
NH 31.3
WI 11.2
OK 11.2
NM 17.9
TX 4.7
AK 11.0
HI 4.1
IL 10.7
KS 5.4
NY 10.8
MI 13.6
IA 5.8
NE 3.1 CO 8.7
ME 19.3
MN 6.2
SD 3.5
WY 7.9 NV 13.8
VT 13.4
IN 8.5
MO 11.7
RI 23.5
OH 24.7 KY 21
MS 5.3
AL 6.1
PA 11.2
CT 19.2 NJ 9.8 DE 14.8
WV 36
VA 9.9 NC 11.9
TN 16.0
AR 7.2
MA 23.3
MD 17.7 DC 14.5
SC 11.4 GA 8.4
< 6.0
LA 6.3
6.0 - 11.9 FL 9.4
12.0 - 19.9 20.0 +
Note: Rates are age-adjusted. Source: The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation State Health Facts
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Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Four Utah counties with more opioid prescriptions than people Retail opioid prescriptions dispensed per 100 persons, 2016 US rate 66.5; Utah rate 70.4 < 50 CACHE
50 - 74.9
RICH
BOX ELDER
75 -99.9 100 +
WEBER DAVIS
(no data)
MORGAN SUMMIT
DAGGETT
SALT LAKE TOOELE
WASATCH
DUCHESNE UINTAH
UTAH
JUAB
CARBON SANPETE
MILLARD
EMERY
GRAND
SEVIER
BEAVER
PIUTE
IRON
WAYNE
GARFIELD SAN JUAN
WASHINGTON
KANE
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Injury Prevention and Control U.S. Prescribing Rate Maps
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Gun-related deaths per capita in Utah: low for homicides, high for suicides Firearm-related death rates by type, 2015 Deaths per 100,000 resident population, all ages, age-adjusted
Utah United States
12.8
11.1
11.0
6.5
4.1
1.3
Suicide
Homicide
Total
Note: Total includes less than 0.5 firearm deaths per 100,000 total population that were unintentional, related to legal intervention, or of undetermined intent. Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System
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Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Utah air quality is getting better, still not acceptable Number of days air quality index exceeded 100 across the Wasatch Front Unhealthy for sensitive groups or worse
350
300
Salt Lake City Ogden-Clearfield Provo-Orem Regional Average National Average
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Outdoor Air Quality data
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No State gets an A State Fiscal Practices Report Card Cumulative GPA in budget forecasting, budget maneuvers, legacy costs, reserve funds, and transparency for fiscal years 2015-2017
d Report Car State
ota So uth Dak Idaho Utah
ia Californ Alaska
Minnesota Nebraska Oregon
land Rho de Is e Tennesse
GPA
B
3.20
B
3.20
B
3.18
3.13
3.07
3.07
3.07
Arizona
Delaware Flori da
Ind iana Iowa
Michigan
a Ok laho m n Washingto
B
3.27
Hawaii
State
Grade
3.07
3.07
3.01
3.00
3.00
3.00 2.93
2.87
2.87
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B-
B-
B-
GPA
2.87
2.83
Grade B-
B-
State Misso uri Virg ina
Kentucky
GPA
2.29
2.25
2.20
Grade C+ C
C
C B2.20 2.80 Ohio Georg ia C B2.14 80 o lina 2. Wyo ming So uth Car C B2.12 2.78 cetts Massachu New York C B2.11 2.73 Montana Maine C B2.07 2.71 n Co lorado Wisconsi C + C 2.05 2.67 uisiana Lo Mississippi C C+ 0 2.01 nua o lina 2.6 ennsylva P N orth Car CC+ 1.93 2.47 o cut New Mexic Connecti C+ C 1.80 2.47 rkansas A Texas CC+ 1.70 2.47 ey New Jers Ver mont D+ + C 1.67 2.47 ina labama A Wes t Virg D+ C+ 1.35 2.45 Illino is Nevada D + C 1.28 2.41 ota ansas K N orth Dak C+ 33 pshire 2. New Ham C+ 2.31 Mar yland
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Volcker Alliance 2017 Truth and Integrity in State Budgeting Report
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Fiscal Considerations
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
Last major tax change in Utah broadened the income tax base; did not address declining sales tax base Changes in Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s sales and income tax bases as a percent of the economy Cumulative changes since 1995
40% Income Tax Base 30%
Sales Tax Base
20%
Major tax change fully implemented, 2008
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
Note: Data shows the cumulative change in each base type as a percent of Utah Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since 1995. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah Office of Legislative Research and General Counsel data
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Sales tax is not keeping pace Growth in Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy and major revenue collections Since the end of the recession, 2009 - 2017
Total Per capita
52.9%
44.4%
33.9% 34.4%
27.0% 20.0% 17.7%
5.5% State Personal Income
State Income Tax
State Sales Tax
State Unrestricted Sales Tax
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Utah State Tax Commission data
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Fiscal Considerations
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
A fundamentally different US (and Utah) economy US Personal Consumption Distribution Expenditures by product type
1955 57%
43%
Services
1985 42%
Goods
Goods
5%
Health care goods and services
12%
Health care goods and services
58%
Services
2016 32%
Goods
68%
Services
21%
Health care goods and services
Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data
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Utah one of 18 states that have not expanded Medicaid Status of state Medicaid expansion decisions November 2017
Adopted (32 states and DC) Not adopted (18 states)
WA MT* OR
ME*
ND MN
ID
VTNH*
SD
WI
WY IA*
NE
NV
UT
CA
AZ*
PA IL
CO
KS
OK
NM
TX
IN
MO
OH
MA CT RI
NJ MD
WV
DE
VA
KY
NC
TN AR*
SC MS
AK
NY
MI*
AL
GA
LA FL
HI
*AR, AZ, IA, IN, MI, MT, and NH have approved Section 1115 waivers. ME adopted the Medicaid expansion through a ballot initiative in November 2017; the ballot measure requires submission of a state plan amendment within 90 days and implementation of expansion within 180 days of the measureâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s effective date. WI covers adults up to 100% Federal Poverty Level in Medicaid, but did not adopt the Affordable Care Act expansion. Source: The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Status of State Action on the Medicaid Expansion Decision as of November 8, 2017
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Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
The magic is in the middle Model for authentic engagement in public deliberation
Fake Outrage
Authentic Engagement
Sure-mindedness
False Harmony
Open-mindedness
Source: MartĂn Carcasson, Ph.D., Center for Public Deliberation at Colorado State University
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Probability of making a good decision
With good data and information come better decisions
Good data and information
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Shedding Light
Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018
K E M C . G A R D N E R P O L I C Y I N S T I T U T E S TA F F A N D A D V I S O R S Leadership Team Natalie Gochnour, Director Jennifer Robinson, Associate Director Dianne Meppen, Director of Survey Research Pamela S. Perlich, Director of Demographic Research Juliette Tennert, Director of Economic and Public Policy Research James A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow Faculty Advisors Adam Meirowitz, Faculty Advisor Matt Burbank, Faculty Advisor Senior Advisors Jonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst Gary Cornia, Marriott School of Business Dan Griffiths, Tanner LLC Roger Hendrix, Hendrix Consulting Joel Kotkin, Chapman University Darin Mellott, CBRE Derek Miller, World Trade Center Utah Chris Redgrave, Zions Bank Bud Scurggs, Cynosure Group Wesley Smith, 24NINE
Staff Samantha Ball, Research Associate Mallory Bateman, Research Analyst DJ Benway, Research Analyst Cathy Chambless, Senior Research Associate Marin Christensen, Research Associate Mike Christensen, Scholar-in-Residence John C. Downen, Senior Research Analyst Emily Harris, Demographic Analyst Michael T. Hogue, Senior Research Statistician Mike Hollingshaus, Demographer Thomas Holst, Senior Energy Analyst Meredith King, Research Associate Colleen Larson, Administrative Manager Shelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance Manager Jennifer Leaver, Research Analyst Sara McCormick, Senior Research Associate Angela Oh, Senior Economist Levi Pace, Research Analyst Joshua Spolsdoff, Research Associate Nicholas Thiriot, Communications Director Natalie Young, Research Analyst
Partners in the Community
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Advisory Board
The following individuals and entities help support the research mission of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.
Conveners
Legacy Partners
Board
The Gardner Company Intermountain Healthcare Larry H. & Gail Miller Family Foundation Mountain America Credit Union Salt Lake City Corp. Salt Lake County University Health Care Utah Governor’s Office of Economic Development Zions Bank
Scott Anderson, Co-Chair Gail Miller, Co-Chair Doug Anderson Deborah Bayle Lane Beattie Cynthia A. Berg Roger Boyer Wilford Clyde Sophia M. DiCaro Cameron Diehl Lisa Eccles Spencer P. Eccles
Executive Partners The Boyer Company Ivory Homes Mark and Karen Bouchard Salt Lake Chamber Sorenson Impact Center WCF Insurance
Sustaining Partners Clyde Companies Dominion Energy Staker Parson Companies
Michael O. Leavitt Mitt Romney
Matt Eyring Kem C. Gardner Christian Gardner Matthew S. Holland Clark Ivory Ron Jibson Mike S. Leavitt Vivian S. Lee Kimberly Gardner Martin Ann Millner Cristina Ortega Jason Perry Taylor Randall Jill Remington Love Brad Rencher Josh Romney Charles W. Sorenson
James Lee Sorenson Vicki Varela Ruth V. Watkins Ted Wilson Natalie Gochnour, Director
Ex Officio Senator Orrin Hatch Governor Gary Herbert Speaker Greg Hughes Senate President Wayne Niederhauser Representative Brian King Senator Gene Davis Mayor Ben McAdams Mayor Jackie Biskupski
Salt Lake Chamber Executive Board Chris Gamvroulas Natalie Gochnour Val Hale Kay Hall Patricia Jones Fred Lampropoulos Brent Low Dean Luikart Jason Mathis Molly Mazzolini Keith McMullin
Lane Beattie Bruce Bingham Terry Buckner Gérald Caussé Vance Checketts Lori Chillingworth Wilford Clyde Cindy Crane John Dahlstrom Spencer Eccles Theresa Foxley
Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute
I
Thomas S. Monson Center 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT 84111 801-585-5618 gardner.utah.edu
I
I
DAV I D E CC L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S UNIVERSITY OF UTAH
Derek Miller Jim Olson Scott Parson Ray Pickup Gary Porter Steven Starks Nigel Steward Craig Wagstaff Heidi Walker Linda Wardell Bert Zimmerli