10 years of expectations for the real estate market

From cautious idea to the industry’s largest and most comprehensive survey

What began as an idea on a piece of paper 10 years ago has evolved into the largest and most comprehensive survey in the property industry. Each year, the Expectations Survey has grown, and today, many real estate investors and businesses use the survey as a benchmark for future trends.

EDC Poul Erik Bech’s Expectations Survey is celebrating its 10th anniversary this year. The survey offers insights into the expected development of the real estate market for the upcoming year.

Poul Erik Bech says: ”It started with the ambition to measure the market temperature for both ourselves and our clients. We wanted to provide insight into the expectations of industry players for the coming year. The survey attracts significant attention from clients and partners, and its durability is shown by the fact that many of the questions from the first years are still recurring.”

”The initial idea and approach remain relevant, and we look forward to welcoming 300 clients and business associates to the Expectations Seminar at Industriens Hus on November 27, 2024. As in previous years, we have invited prominent figures from the industry, with this year’s theme focusing on ESG and sustainability, alongside the presentation of the survey results.”

Sign up for EDC Poul Erik Bech’s annual Expectations Seminar at edc.dk/forventninger2025

Growing year by year

More and more customers are continuously participating in the survey - and this nearly 1,800 respondents participated in the survey. The survey framework has been gradually adjusted; for example, questions about ESG and sustainability were added four years ago, as it is an important topic in the industry.

Joseph Alberti, Head of Research at EDC Poul Erik Bech, says: ” The expectations for 2025 are that the market will pick up again after a couple of slower years. In 2017-2022, about half of the respondents said they would spend more money on property investments in the coming year, but that number dropped drastically to just under a quarter in 2023 with a small recovery in 2024. We have just received the responses for 2025, and more than half of the respondents said they plan to spend more money, which is a good indica-tion that the market is heading towards the same level as in 2017-2022.”

”The expectation of low investment appetite in 2023 and partially in 2024 is, of course, connected to the high-interest rate level, which the majority of respondents rightly pointed to in both the Expectations for 2022 and 2023 surveys. This is likely because long-term interest rates had already started to rise in 2021 after a period of gradual decline with minor fluctuations since the financial crisis in 2008. 87% expect interest rates to decrease in the coming year, which is also an indicator that the market is moving in the right direction,” says Joseph Alberti.

More prefer owning over renting

In the 10 years the survey has been conducted, there have naturally been changes in respondents’ answers. One area where there has been a notable shift is in the number of people considering buying property instead of leasing. About the development, Joseph Alberti says:

”Over the past 10 years, we’ve seen a significant increase in the percentage of respondents who are considering buying their own premises rather than renting. In 2016, only 15% were considering buying instead of renting, whereas that number stands at 56% today. However, it peaked in the 2022 expectations survey, where as many as 69% were considering buying over renting. The slight decline since 2022 is likely due to the high interest rates we’ve seen since then.”

”The reason why more investors and companies are considering buying instead of renting can likely be attributed to the strong Danish economy, which has ’survived’ the fears of downturn and recession and instead appears to be moving forward with optimism, positive growth ratesprimarily driven by Novo Nordisk - and record-high employment. This means investors and businesses have more cash on hand and want to join the trend by owning the premises they use rather than leasing them.”