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EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE
DAYS TO GO
OVERVIEW The narrative around Labour’s relationship with business was highlighted last week with over 100 businesses claiming Miliband’s team would “threaten jobs and deter investment”. It’s the latest in a long line of private sector doubts over the opposition, with Labour struggling to present any business bosses (beyond ‘Bill Somebody’). But it isn’t really the Labour party that keeps business leaders up at night. It’s uncertainty. Democracies are dependent on the push-pull of politics, but 2015 isn’t just a tug o’ war – it’s more like a gourdian knot. So Edelman has mapped out the business community’s perception of political risk. This week we launch our UK Political Risk Index, an analysis of the political expectations and fears of 250 UK businesses, large and small. But before the official launch, here’s a taster of what we found. Click the link to the right to view the latest Edelman Election wrap-up.
Benedict McAleenan
GUIDE TO POLITICAL RISK WHAT BUSINESSES CURRENTLY DO TO ENGAGE WITH THE POLITICAL PROCESS
BIGGEST POLITICAL OR POLICY RELATED EVENT RISK Q10. Which of the following regular political or policy-related events pose your business the greatest risk? Base: All Respondents (n250) [Finance and Professional Services n40, Technology n40, Health n40, Manufacturing n40, Energy n25, Retail n40, Property n25] 35
Q12. What is your business doing to engage with the political and policy-making process? Base: All Respondents (n250) [Finance and Professional Services n40, Technology n40, Health n40, Manufacturing n40, Energy n25, Retail n40, Property n25]
31%
30
24%
25
46%
No Proactive Engaement
20
16%
29%
15
8%
10
Ad-Hoc Activity and Engagement
7%
4%
5
General Elections
Budgets and Autumn Statements
BoE Monetary Policy Committee Meetings
Local Devolved European Elections Administration Elections Elections
VOTING IN 2010 ELECTION VS. INTENTION TO VOTE IN 2015 ELECTION Q10. Which of the following regular political or policy-related events pose your business the greatest risk? Base: All Respondents (n250) [Finance and Professional Services n40, Technology n40, Health n40, Manufacturing n40, Energy n25, Retail n40, Property n25]
60
7%
Pursue a Proactive Strategic Programme
0
59%
2010 Election 2015 Election (intention to vote)
10
0
20
Q10. In terms of your strategic business priorities, please rank the following outcomes in terms of which pose the most risk to your business (please rank your top 5, with 1 being ‘most significant risk’) Base: All Respondents (n250) [Finance and Professional Services n40, Technology n40, Health n40, Manufacturing n40, Energy n25, Retail n40, Property n25]
52%
Conservative – Liberal Democrats Coalition
40
32%
Conservative minority government
30
20%
Labour majority government
11%
11%
13%
11% 6%
10
3%
0
Conservatives
Labour
Liberal Democrats
UKIP
50
POTENTIAL FUTURE GOVERNMENTS – PROVIDES BUSINESS WITH CLARITY Conservative majority government
50% 50
20
40
30
23%
Labour – Liberal Democrats Coalition
13%
Labour minority government
12% 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK
EDELMAN ELECTION UPDATE HIGHLIGHTS AND LOWLIGHTS
POLLING REPORT
Nightmare on Downing Street David Cameron launched the General Election campaign with the traditional announcement outside 10 Downing Street. But to commentators’ surprise, he included a decidedly non-traditional direct attack on Ed Miliband, becoming the first PM in ten elections to namecheck his opponent when speaking outside the black door. He later denounced “hopeless, sneering socialists”. As Mr Cameron once said, let sunshine win the day.
Taking People for Mugs Flogging merchandise is one way that the parties raise funds at election time, and Labour are no exception. They’re selling mugs branded with their election pledges – including one calling for “controls on immigration”, which upset some in the party. Swiftly the Tories responded with their own versions using the hashtag #labourmugs.
Political risk is now a permanent feature in British politics. The UK’s political system is no longer a solely two-party contest, making the challenges of trying to win a majority huge and ensuring uncertainty is here to stay. As both the Conservatives and Labour have lost support over the long-term, they have also become locked out of huge parts of the country. In practical terms, they need to win an ever larger share of a dwindling battleground in order to form a majority – a task which is likely to become even more difficult. Adding to this uncertainty is the erosion of party loyalty. More voters than ever before say they could still change their mind at this late stage in the campaign – over 50% in some polls. This means we could see lots of late and unpredictable swings, while in future elections party support will be more prone to wild fluctuations than in the past. Finally tactical voting could have an impact like never before. With more constituency polling, voters are now better informed about the choice they have in their area – how they use this information is unknowable, but this could have a major impact.
The Only Way is … Liberal Democat? After spending the first day of his campaign visiting a hedgehog sanctuary, Nick Clegg began the second being interviewed by TOWIE star Joey Essex for a new programme on politics and young people. Essex freely admitted that he hadn’t a clue what Clegg actually did and dubbed the DPM’s party the “Liberal Democats”. But, perhaps channelling Edelman’s Trust Barometer findings, he did assert that trust in politicians is one of the most important factors in the election.
66% Proportion of UK seats where the Conservatives are currently first or second which the Party need to win in order to secure a majority
79% Proportion of UK seats where Labour are currently first or second which the Party need to win in order to secure a majority
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR Tuesday 7 April – Scottish Party Leaders Debate
Wednesday 8 April - Creative Industries Federation Hustings
Thursday 9 April – Deadline for Nominations
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) will face off against the new Leader of the Scottish Labour Party Jim Murphy, the Leader of the Scottish Conservative Party Ruth Davidson and the Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats Willie Rennie in a live debate on STV.
Culture and Digital Economy Minister Ed Vaizey and Shadow Culture Secretary Harriet Harman, along with spokespeople from the other major political parties, are due to outline their parties’ policies on the arts and creative industries at a hustings organised by the Creative Industries Federation.
Candidates hoping to run for Parliament need to register their intentions before 4pm on Thursday 9 April. Any withdrawals of nominations must also be made by this date, after which lists of all those standing will be made public.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT: Gurpreet Brar
0203 047 2466 gurpreet.brar@edelman.com
Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK