Where next for Brexit? MPs set to vote on May’s brexit plan b Pawel Swidlicki Senior Account Manager, Edelman
Tomorrow is the latest crunch day for Brexit as Theresa May outlines her next steps and MPs get the chance to vote on a range of their own plan Bs. Exactly which of those alternative approaches will actually be put to MPs will depend on which ones Commons Speaker John Bercow chooses for debate – and we will not know that until tomorrow at around 12.45. While there will be much debate and drama, throughout the afternoon and evening, it is unlikely that we will be much further on by tomorrow night in terms of ending the uncertainty and knowing exactly what comes next. A range of outcomes will still be possible. We might get a sense of what specific changes the Government will push for on the controversial Northern Irish backstop, although any changes acceptable to Tory Brexiteers and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) will be resisted by the EU. Meanwhile, even if a cross-party coalition of MPs opposed to no deal is able to amend the Government’s Brexit plan, no deal remains the default outcome. Parliament voting to create a mechanism to extend Article 50 would be significant, but this would only extend the cliff-edge; a badly divided Commons would still need to agree a Withdrawal Agreement. Ultimately, there are only three outcomes: an orderly Brexit, a no deal Brexit or no Brexit. If there are no majorities in Parliament for the latter two options, it leaves May’s deal as the only feasible option around which a majority can coalesce, potentially following some changes to the backstop and/or the Political Declaration setting out the new relationship.
What will be debated and voted upon on tuesday? On Tuesday, Theresa May will present a motion setting out the Government’s next steps on Brexit following the heavy defeat of her deal earlier this month. The motion will be amendable, meaning that MPs can present alternative proposals, and so far over a dozen amendments have been tabled. These can be grouped into three broad categories: 1. Taking ‘no deal’ off the table: Amendments in this category either call on the Government to explicitly rule out no deal, or create a mechanism to extend Article 50. The most notable amendment in this group, tabled by Labour’s Yvette Cooper, would bring forward dedicated legislation compelling the Government to request an extension if a Withdrawal Agreement has not been approved by Parliament by 26 February. However, it is important to remember that no deal remains the default outcome and any extension request would have to be unanimously approved by the EU27 – by no means a certainty. 2. Allowing Parliament to control the process: These amendments would change parliamentary rules to give MPs themselves – as opposed to the Government – the ability to determine the day-to-day business of the House, including the ability to set aside specific days for Brexit debates. MPs could then debate and have indicative (i.e. non-binding) votes on a range of specific options such as holding a ‘People’s Vote’ or pursuing a Norway-style ‘soft Brexit’, in turn providing a clearer sense of what alternative plan, if any, could command something approaching a parliamentary majority.
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3. Addressing the backstop: May has indicated she will press the EU for changes to the Irish border backstop in order to try to address the concerns of Conservative Brexiteers and the DUP. Amendments in this group include Andrew Murrison’s proposal to time-limit the backstop to one year only, as well as 1922 Chairman Graham Brady’s amendment for it to be removed entirely in favour of – unspecified – alternative arrangements. The idea is that if passed, these amendments would strengthen the PM’s hand in Brussels by making it clear to the EU that without these changes the deal won’t be approved.
Key things to look out for Which amendments will be selected? This is for the Speaker of the House, John Bercow, to decide and we will only find out on Tuesday afternoon at around 12.45. The Cooper amendment is widely expected to be included, as is at least one from the procedural batch. Previously, Bercow has caused controversy by not selecting a Brexiteer amendment regarding the backstop and if he were to do so again, it would prove explosive. Will the Cooper amendment pass – and will the Government whip against it? Labour are set to support the Cooper amendment giving it a good chance of passing, though some Labour MPs are reportedly nervous about an extension being seen as an attempt to ‘frustrate Brexit’, meaning the vote could be tight. In addition, up to 20 Remain-backing ministers are lobbying for no deal to be taken off the table and some, including Amber Rudd, have indicated they could resign if pushed to vote against the amendment. However, May also wants to preserve party unity to the greatest possible extent, and the larger Brexiteer contingent insist that no deal needs to remain on the table. Will the Government support any of the backstop amendments? The Government wants to amend the backstop and there are indications that it could swing in behind the Brady amendment given that in principle, this could be achieved with a supplementary legal agreement – a codicil – and would not require reopening the Withdrawal Agreement. The EU’s own confusion around the question of the Irish border – with Michel Barnier last week implying that a solution would be found to avoid on the border checks even in the event of no deal – has emboldened Brexiteers to push back against the backstop. However, it remains difficult to see the EU agreeing to changes significant enough to address Brexiteers’ and the DUP’s concerns about the backstop, meaning that were the Government were to support such changes, and were they to be approved by Parliament, the risk a no deal outcome would be increased. Will the Government accept defeat? It has become a truism to say that thanks to Brexit, the UK is operating in constitutionally uncharted territory, but Tuesday has the potential to push it much further in that direction. In theory, any amendments passed on Tuesday will not be formally legally binding on the Government, but it is not clear how the Government could proceed if its proposed course of action does not enjoy the support of the House, and what would happen if May were to refuse point blank to implement a resolution, for example compelling her to request an Article 50 extension.