Brexit Blows Up - An Edelman Analysis

brexit blows up may’s deal hangs in balance as brexiteers make their move

Pawel Swidlicki Senior Account Manager

Calum O’Byrne Mulligan Senior Account Executive

Since the 2017 general election commentators have often delighted in telling us the May premiership hangs by a thread. This evening, for once, this is less hyperbole and hysteria, and more cold hard fact. May’s success in delivering an agreement after months of gruelling negotiation should have been a moment of personal triumph. Instead she finds herself battling for her political survival after the resignations of her Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, her Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey and several junior ministers, all before 10am.

After that she faced a belligerent House of Commons for more than three hours. The message was stark – time’s up. If not for her (yet), then for her Brexit agreement. As the pound fell and the City jittered, she was battered by MPs on all sides. Today told us one thing – if the Prime Minister insists on putting this Withdrawal Agreement to a vote of the House it would take a miracle for her to win it. Her mantra today - this was the best deal on offer, in the best interests of the United Kingdom, and voting it down risks resetting the entire process, with all the economic and business uncertainty that brings – fell on deaf ears.

In seeking to please all sides she’s ended up pleasing none, and in the process she’s united both sides of the debate, against her.

It may not get to a vote anyway. Jacob Rees-Mogg famously once described his hard-Brexiteer ERG group as “May’s Pretorian Guard”, and as has happened many times throughout history, the elite formation has now moved against their leader. His savage criticism of the deal and his declaration that he is submitting a letter of no-confidence to Graham Brady, chair of the Tories’ 1922 Committee, is intended to act as a clear signal to those Brexiteers who have not already submitted such a letter to follow suit. Forty-eight letters would trigger a secret ballot on her leadership among Tory MPs.

Amid the swirling Westminster drama around May’s personal future, it is important to keep in mind the bigger picture, which is that unless any alternative leader can command the support of a majority of MPs, and then is able to negotiate an alternative deal with the EU, the UK is probably heading for a no deal Brexit for which it is not adequately prepared.

EDELMAN | SOUTHSIDE | 105 VICTORIA STREET | SW1e 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 020 3047 2000 | @edelmanuk

The 585-page Withdrawal Agreement was published late last night, but before experts had even had a chance to properly pick apart the complex provisions in terms of the contentious Northern Irish backstop, it was clear that in big picture terms it did not deliver the kind of Brexit most Brexiteers wanted.

While the deal delivered on May’s overarching objective and personal red line of scrapping free movement, she had to accept trade-offs. In exchange for a whole-UK customs union backstop there would be continued alignment with a swathe of EU rules, and a role for the ECJ in enforcing them. Moreover, even this version of the backstop included certain provisions specific to Northern Ireland on customs, regulation and VAT, all of which are an absolute anathema to her DUP partners.

In addition, the declaration on the future relationship, a very high-level, non-binding political declaration published alongside the Withdrawal Agreement, proved divisive. It made reference to the future agreement containing provisions on “deep regulatory co-operation” and suggested building on the temporary customs union that would come into force for the transition. In other words, in order to avoid the backstop from having to be activated, the future relationship would have to be more akin to May’s Chequers deal than the looser, Canada-style free trade agreement favoured by Brexiteers.

Corbyn echoes Brexiteer talking points in rejecting May’s deal

Responding to the Prime Minister in the Commons today, Jeremy Corbyn made the case that “no deal is not an option”, before going on to offer a comprehensive critique of May’s Brexit deal. In doing so, Corbyn echoed Brexiteer criticisms, including slamming the deal for failing to secure the UK’s money, borders and law, state aid restrictions, the lack of a unilateral exit mechanism from the backstop, and its threat to the integrity of the UK through the creation of differential rules.

It is one thing for the Leader of the Opposition to attack the PM’s deal, but the ramification of Corbyn’s comments is more profound. They imply a Labour government would have much the same problems as the Tories when it comes to negotiating a divorce deal with the EU given the latter’s insistence on the inclusion of the backstop.

This will only serve to heighten tensions within the party, as while Labour MPs will not want to be seen as the handmaidens of May’s deal, nor will they want to see a no deal Brexit. This means that even in the event Labour came to power via a snap election before Brexit Day, Corbyn would face the same choice between signing on the EU’s dotted lines or a no deal that the majority of his voters would find unacceptable.

brexit blows up| november 2018

Why has May’s deal proved so unpopular?

May holds on: It remains to be seen how many Brexiteers feel that bringing May down immediately is the best course of action, but it would be surprising if 48 letters were not submitted in coming days, especially if further resignations keep up the pressure. The formal vote of confidence could follow shortly after, however, Brexiteers would need an overall majority – 158 MPs – to actually win the vote, an outcome which is far from guaranteed. That said, even some hitherto loyalists could conclude her position is untenable, which could then become a self-fulfilling scenario.

MPs vote down May’s deal: Even if May is able to cling on in the short term, it is hard to see her cobbling together a majority for the deal from Tory loyalists and Labour rebels. In this scenario, the pressure on her to quit would be huge, regardless of whether she had von an intra-party vote. Failure to resign would likely prompt a parliamentary vote of confidence in the government itself.

Brexiteer takes over as PM: If May is forced out, her successor is almost certain to be a Brexiteer, but they will face exactly the same fundamental challenge that she did – a lack of a stable parliamentary majority, an EU that has stuck resolutely to its own red lines, and the prospect of a damaging no deal imminently approaching. Brexiteers have argued the EU has not yet faced a British PM genuinely willing to play hardball, but the EU is unlikely to look favourably upon a new PM trying to unpick the painstakingly negotiated package. If the new PM found themselves unable to change this situation, they would face the unpalatable choice of a humiliating, Greek-style climb-down or actively going for a no deal outcome.

Parliament takes back control: While there may be no majority for May’s deal, it remains the case there is no majority for no deal either, and any new PM could well find themselves in a situation where they could not pass the necessary legislation to put in place the bare minimum no deal contingency measures.

Therefore, a snap election cannot be completely ruled out as a way of changing the parliamentary arithmetic, or even MPs batting the ultimate decision back to the British people via a second referendum, although this remains an outside prospect. One potential outcome could be MPs voting to accept May’s Brexit deal at the second time of asking against a backdrop of economic chaos and business panic.

EDELMAN PUBLIC AFFAIRS: HELPING YOU ACT WITH CERTAINTY Whether the Brexit endgame or the battle to replace Theresa May, Edelman’s public affairs team offers first-class intelligence, the smartest analysis and expertise, senior strategic counsel and the most efficient execution to help you navigate the political landscape. Drawn from across the political spectrum and with years of experience in Westminster and the media, our team is led by Managing Director Will Walden – former Director of Communications and External Affairs to Boris Johnson at London City Hall.

It includes a specialist Brexit Unit led by former Remain campaign Deputy Director Lucy Thomas, and political communications specialism headed by the Prime Minister’s former Press Secretary Craig Woodhouse.

To find out how Edelman can help you, please contact will.walden@edelman.com

EDELMAN | SOUTHSIDE | 105 VICTORIA STREET | SW1e 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 020 3047 2000 | @edelmanuk

reactions James Heappey MP

Andrea Jenkyns MP

Loyalist Tory

Brexiteer MP

“In the Army I put my life on the line in the national interest so merely putting my job on the line to do what’s right for our country is pretty small beer. Nobody’s saying this deal is perfect but it’s better than no deal or no Brexit which are only other options.”

“From what MPs are telling me, more letters have gone in. I have even had current ministers tell me that in a vote of no confidence they would vote Theresa May out. She can fight it. But I am confident she will not win it. Time to save Brexit and our party with a new leader.”

Matthew Pennycook

Nigel Dodds

Labour Shadow Brexit Minister

DUP’s Westminster Leader

“However people voted in 2016, no one voted for this. The deal fails to meet our tests and Labour MPs will be asked to vote against it. We reject the idea that the choice ahead is a straight one between this deal and no deal. If MPs vote it down, all options must be on the table.”

“The choice is now clear. Stand up for the whole of the United Kingdom or vote for a vassal state with the break up of the United Kingdom.”

Carolyn Fairbairn

Tom McTague

CBI Director General

Politico

“After 20 months of debate, this agreement by Cabinet is progress. It moves the UK one step away from the nightmare precipice of no deal & the harm it would cause to communities across the country”

“Do Brexiteers have a plan? — Can they win a vote of no confidence? — What do they do if May wins/gets immunity from challenge for a year? — What changes if they replace May with Brexiteer PM? — How do they stop parliament removing a No Deal govt? — How do they reopen May’s deal?”

in conclusion This is, as Attorney General Geoffrey Cox allegedly described it last night, “an ugly sister of a deal”. It achieves the objective of leaving the EU and controlling migration, but it neither offers fully frictionless trade, nor “taking back control” in full as was promised during the referendum. From the EU’s perspective it does achieve the objective of demonstrating that it is not possible to secure better terms than as a full member, but the result is that it appeals neither to Brexiteers, nor, despite all of May’s concessions, to Remainers. And for the Prime Minister, that could prove a fatal combination.

brexit blows up | november 2018

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