brexit blows up may’s deal hangs in balance as brexiteers make their move
Pawel Swidlicki Senior Account Manager
Calum O’Byrne Mulligan Senior Account Executive
Since the 2017 general election commentators have often delighted in telling us the May premiership hangs by a thread. This evening, for once, this is less hyperbole and hysteria, and more cold hard fact. May’s success in delivering an agreement after months of gruelling negotiation should have been a moment of personal triumph. Instead she finds herself battling for her political survival after the resignations of her Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, her Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey and several junior ministers, all before 10am. After that she faced a belligerent House of Commons for more than three hours. The message was stark – time’s up. If not for her (yet), then for her Brexit agreement. As the pound fell and the City jittered, she was battered by MPs on all sides. Today told us one thing – if the Prime Minister insists on putting this Withdrawal Agreement to a vote of the House it would take a miracle for her to win it. Her mantra today - this was the best deal on offer, in the best interests of the United Kingdom, and voting it down risks resetting the entire process, with all the economic and business uncertainty that brings – fell on deaf ears. In seeking to please all sides she’s ended up pleasing none, and in the process she’s united both sides of the debate, against her. It may not get to a vote anyway. Jacob Rees-Mogg famously once described his hard-Brexiteer ERG group as “May’s Pretorian Guard”, and as has happened many times throughout history, the elite formation has now moved against their leader. His savage criticism of the deal and his declaration that he is submitting a letter of no-confidence to Graham Brady, chair of the Tories’ 1922 Committee, is intended to act as a clear signal to those Brexiteers who have not already submitted such a letter to follow suit. Forty-eight letters would trigger a secret ballot on her leadership among Tory MPs. Amid the swirling Westminster drama around May’s personal future, it is important to keep in mind the bigger picture, which is that unless any alternative leader can command the support of a majority of MPs, and then is able to negotiate an alternative deal with the EU, the UK is probably heading for a no deal Brexit for which it is not adequately prepared.
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The 585-page Withdrawal Agreement was published late last night, but before experts had even had a chance to properly pick apart the complex provisions in terms of the contentious Northern Irish backstop, it was clear that in big picture terms it did not deliver the kind of Brexit most Brexiteers wanted. While the deal delivered on May’s overarching objective and personal red line of scrapping free movement, she had to accept trade-offs. In exchange for a whole-UK customs union backstop there would be continued alignment with a swathe of EU rules, and a role for the ECJ in enforcing them. Moreover, even this version of the backstop included certain provisions specific to Northern Ireland on customs, regulation and VAT, all of which are an absolute anathema to her DUP partners. In addition, the declaration on the future relationship, a very high-level, non-binding political declaration published alongside the Withdrawal Agreement, proved divisive. It made reference to the future agreement containing provisions on “deep regulatory co-operation” and suggested building on the temporary customs union that would come into force for the transition. In other words, in order to avoid the backstop from having to be activated, the future relationship would have to be more akin to May’s Chequers deal than the looser, Canada-style free trade agreement favoured by Brexiteers.
Corbyn echoes Brexiteer talking points in rejecting May’s deal Responding to the Prime Minister in the Commons today, Jeremy Corbyn made the case that “no deal is not an option”, before going on to offer a comprehensive critique of May’s Brexit deal. In doing so, Corbyn echoed Brexiteer criticisms, including slamming the deal for failing to secure the UK’s money, borders and law, state aid restrictions, the lack of a unilateral exit mechanism from the backstop, and its threat to the integrity of the UK through the creation of differential rules. It is one thing for the Leader of the Opposition to attack the PM’s deal, but the ramification of Corbyn’s comments is more profound. They imply a Labour government would have much the same problems as the Tories when it comes to negotiating a divorce deal with the EU given the latter’s insistence on the inclusion of the backstop. This will only serve to heighten tensions within the party, as while Labour MPs will not want to be seen as the handmaidens of May’s deal, nor will they want to see a no deal Brexit. This means that even in the event Labour came to power via a snap election before Brexit Day, Corbyn would face the same choice between signing on the EU’s dotted lines or a no deal that the majority of his voters would find unacceptable.
brexit blows up| november 2018
Why has May’s deal proved so unpopular?