Conservative Party Conference 2017: An Edelman Briefing by Edelman

CONSERVATIVE PARTY CONFERENCE 2017

Will Walden Managing Director and former Director of Communications to Boris Johnson

FAILURE TO LAUNCH “The test of a leader is how you respond when tough times come upon you.” Well that line from the Prime Minister proved truly prophetic today. True, this was never going to be an easy few days - post election, post Grenfell, post a summer of discontent, post Boris' Brexit interventions. But the Prime Minister arrived here on Saturday evening knowing that what she needed most of all was a conference where she set the direction and the tone - where she looked in charge or, at least, back in charge. Throughout the week, however hard you tried, a seemingly unavoidable feeling of inertia hung over conference. MPs muttered, associations and activists chuntered. Some Cabinet Ministers rounded on the Foreign Secretary. You'd have been forgiven for questioning whether this was really the party of government; because at times it didn't feel that way. When she took the stage in Manchester this lunchtime she had a chance to reverse the narrative. What happened next has, however unfairly, probably scuppered much chance of that. For those of you who didn't see it - and there can't be many of you - the Prime Minister was handed a P45 by a 'protester' who turned out to be a prankster, whilst struggling continually throughout her speech with a coughing fit. And to cap it all the stage set lettering behind her fell apart. Her voice was breaking, near broken or barely audible for much of the speech. Her husband looked crestfallen at times. When she left the stage she looked like she was just grateful it was over. Many will admire her pluck and her determination - she had apologised for being stiff in the campaign and then managed a pretty good unscripted gag when the Chancellor handed her a cough sweet - "I hope you noticed that Ladies and Gentleman, the Chancellor giving something away free". Cabinet Ministers are lining up to offer praise. Supportive newspapers may well frame this in terms of the brave PM, soldiering on. And there will rightly be searching questions about security. But most people I suspect will remember the moment – that the images that surround this speech are a metaphor for a leader who is weakened, whose authority, punctured in June, continues to drain away. Last night one of her most senior advisors told me honestly and touchingly "I wish you could see the speech - there's loads in it, it's really packed with content and policy announcements". This lunchtime that feels somewhat by the by. The Party had been lambasted all week by journalists for hollowing out conference -

poor, repetitive or non-existent policy announcements, no narrative, no direction they moaned. Here was a chance to change all that. She made pledges around affordable housing (an extra £2bn although without detail on timing), a mental health review, and a price cap on the domestic energy market (although OFGEM still need to have a say). Much of the rhetoric appeared moderate, outward looking. But the pledges, and the attacks on Jeremy Corbyn probably won't be on the front pages tomorrow. The faltering delivery, the cough and the P45 will be. In 24 hours things might just appear a little less febrile, but it was at times impossibly difficult to watch. It was painful. Yes she'd done 26 interviews yesterday but sympathy isn't a quality a Prime Minister needs or wants. She will get it in spades. The prankster - who should never have been allowed near her and has been arrested - will be dismissed as an idiot, but the metaphor stands. The uncomfortable truth is that Brand matters. Sheer dumb luck. It doesn't happen to you when you are on the up, it just doesn't. These type of things didn't happen to Tony Blair, or to David Cameron, (or if they did they rode them out with dexterity), and yet they did happen to Neil Kinnock (Brighton seafront), to Gordon Brown (Gillian Duffy), to Ed Miliband (the Ed Stone, the bacon sarnie). And now to Theresa May. Before she stood up I'd already written this: "Did you miss it? I wish I had!" That this lunchtime is almost certainly the prevailing view of many here. As Tory party activists, business delegates, a smattering of MPs, and every single Westminster lobby journalist streams away from Manchester in the next few hours they know ‘we are as we were’. Given what happened I suspect No 10 and Conservative Central Office wish even that were still true. The serious business of Brexit, a thin legislative agenda with no majority, and a budget lie ahead. Beyond that lies something more fundamental for Mrs May and the Tories. Membership falling, support among the under 45s tanking, and as yet no clear sense of response to the national mood – ‘are they listening, understanding and responding to us’. Despite all that, despite today’s woes, a challenge to her leadership in the middle of our EU extrication would be bloody and still seems very remote. Mrs May may be on notice, but then she knew that already.

KEY POLICY TAKEAWAYS Health

Energy

The Prime Minister announced that an opt-out organ donation system will be introduced in England instead of the current opt-in one, saying that 500 people died last year because a suitable donor organ was not available.

The Prime Minister announced that the Government will introduce a Draft Bill next week to put a price cap on energy bills – a policy that was in the 2017 Conservative Manifesto, but was originally proposed by Ed Miliband back in 2013. She said this would bring an end to “rip-off energy prices” once and for all.

Acknowledging that detention rates under the Mental Health Act are too high, she announced an independent review of the Mental Health Act, undertaken by Professor Sir Simon Wessely, an eminent British psychologist, in order to “tackle the longstanding injustices of discrimination in our mental health system.” Education The Prime Minister announced that the Government will extend its free schools programme, committing to building 100 new Free Schools in every year of this Parliament. She added that the Government was pursuing this path “not because our ideology says so, but because free schools work, and it is the right thing to do”.

Tuition Fees Theresa May promised a “major review” of university funding and student financing, saying the maximum rate (£9,250) will be frozen while the review takes place. She added that the salary threshold at which graduates must begin repaying their loan will rise from £21,000 to £25,000 – “putting money back into the pockets of graduates with high levels of debt.”

Housing

National Security

Theresa May pledged to fix the “broken housing market”, announcing that the Government will invest an additional £2 billion in affordable housing, taking the total affordable housing budget to almost £9 billion. Councils as well as housing associations will be encouraged to bid for the money.

The Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, announced that people who view terrorist content online could be jailed for up to 15 years in a move designed to tighten the laws tackling radicalisation. The policy closes a loophole which meant that it was previously only illegal to download terrorist material, while streaming it was not a prosecutable offence.

Energy

STAKEHOLDER REACTION

4 October 2017

Paul Staines – Founder of political blog site, Guido Fawkes: “May was defending free markets and now she says she's bringing in price controls. Go figure.”

Isabel Hardman, Assistant Editor of the Spectator: “A sore throat and a fool disrupting your speech aren’t signs you’re not up to the job. But in terms of metaphors this is so unlucky.”

Carolyn Fairburn - Director-General, CBI: “Today’s announcement is an example of state intervention that misses the mark. Market-wide price caps are not the best answer.”

George Eaton - Political Editor, New Statesman: “It's hard for the Tories to denounce Corbyn as "Marxist" when they're chasing Labour's tail on housing, energy and tuition fees.”

Andrew Neil - BBC Presenter: “Those many Tories who firmly believe Mrs May should never be allowed to fight another election will now be immutable on the matter.”

Jeremy Corbyn – Leader of the Labour Party “In July, Theresa May asked for policy ideas so I sent her our manifesto. Taking a few of our policies & watering them down won't work”

SPOTLIGHT ON BREXIT by Lucy Thomas and Pawel Swidlicki

When it came down to it, Boris’ speech contained relatively little on Brexit and he largely backed away from his own red lines, although he did argue the UK should not end up “in some dusty antechamber of the EU hoping for scraps from the table but no longer in charge of the menu”, a clear signal of his opposition to any new relationship in which the UK maintains very close links to the EU in exchange for a high degree of market access. This debate over where exactly to strike the balance between access and sovereignty is a key fault line within the party, and May herself has been highly ambiguous, calling for a unique and bespoke model somewhere between the Norway (high access/low control) and Canada (low access/high control) models. A shift of emphasis on the Irish border?

Overview: Florence speech has not resolved Tories’ Europe dilemmas Love it or loathe it, Brexit inspires great passions and it is no coincidence it was Brexit-themed fringe events that were packed out and rowdy – and where Brexiteers like Jacob Rees-Mogg were treated with adulation – in contrast to the more subdued atmosphere in the main hall. In delivering her Florence speech, Theresa May had hoped to take some of the heat out of the debate and shift the focus onto domestic issues. However, as the conference made clear, the speech only bought her some additional time and space – the party remains deeply divided over the UK’s new relationship with Europe and over how and how fast to get there. A year makes a lot of difference May’s struggles during her speech will attract most of the attention and overshadowed her attempt to reach out to “unsettled” EU nationals who she wanted to assure that they were welcome to stay in the UK. In general, Brexit only merited a short passage in which she talked about a partnership between a successful EU and a sovereign UK. This was a striking contrast to last year when she adopted a much more forceful stance and set clear red lines, most notably regarding the jurisdiction of the ECJ. The difference between the two speeches illustrates how much the power dynamics have shifted in the EU’s favour following the commencement of formal negotiations under Article 50. Boris backs away from his own red lines (for now) The start of the conference was overshadowed by Boris Johnson’s interview with the Sun in which he set out four red lines; the transition should not last “more than a second” over two years, the UK should not be bound by new EU laws or ECJ judgements during this period, it should not make additional payments for access or shadow EU regulation in future. If adopted as government policy, these red lines would rule out any transition agreement as the EU has said that such a transition must take place under existing EU rules and structures.

4 October 2017

David Davis’ speech contained very little of detail on the ongoing negotiations, although in reference to the Irish border question, he talked of not wanting to return to “the problems of the past”. This could be a hint that the government is now working on the assumption that there will need to be some form of physical border between Ireland and Northern Ireland; in the past ministers, including Theresa May herself, have explicitly referred to not wanting to return to the “borders of the past”. In many ways, this is a natural consequence of leaving both the single market and customs union, although it will be hugely contentious and unpopular with communities either side of the border. Davis also assured the audience that “if the outcome of the negotiation falls short of the deal that Britain needs we will be ready for the alternative… Anything else would be a dereliction of duty.” The re-statement of the ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ principle will have been welcome to the ears of Brexiteers concerned that the UK will end up taking whatever offer the EU makes in a bid to stave off a chaotic Brexit in March 2019. However, we ought to take this with a pinch of salt; a Brexit onto WTO terms requires not just considerable planning – arguably beyond the capacity of DExEU – but also the installation of considerable new soft and hard infrastructure, and there are no signs of this happening just yet. Hammond and Fox shadowbox over Brexit sentiment In his speech, Philip Hammond warned that “we face an immediate challenge as we move ahead. The process of negotiating our exit from the EU has created uncertainty so investment has slowed as businesses wait for clarity.” In contrast to Boris Johnson, he stressed that “Our economic future will remain closely linked with the EU for many good reasons. The following day, Liam Fox opened his speech by saying “It’s time for some optimism” and went on to talk at length about the opportunities of Brexit, a clear contrast to the Chancellor...

SPOTLIGHT ON BREXIT …He accused “naysayers” of “getting it wrong” and prefacing any positive economic news with the words ‘despite Brexit’. He also talked about the preparatory work DIT was making for Brexit such as tabling the UK’s new schedules at the WTO and grandfathering over the EU’s 40+ FTAs over to the UK, but perhaps concerningly, there were no indications of tangible progress. Like many of the Brexit speeches it was thin on detail although Fox did talk about the need for mitigation where globalisation causes disruption to individuals or communities, a potential marker for a new reskilling programme?

immigration rules, would be based on “comprehensive new evidence.” Having commissioned the Government’s first ever detailed reviews of free movement’s on the British economy and the value of international students, she made clear that these would guide her thinking and eventual policy. There was no repeat of the tens of thousands pledge from last year, only a commitment to bring “greater control” to the immigration system.

Rudd: No immigration cliff edge, evidence-based policy and consulting businesses to prevent labour shortages. In a marked contrast from her speech last year, the Home Secretary sought to reassure UK businesses that there would be no immigration cliff edge and that she would consult them to mitigate any risks: “I’m committed to working with businesses, both large and small, to make Lucy Thomas was Deputy Director of Britain Stronger in sure we don’t impose unnecessary burdens, or create Europe, the campaign to keep Britain in the EU. She is now a Director in Edelman’ s London Public Affairs Practice and damaging labour shortages.” Head of the Brexit Advice Unit. Pawel Swidlicki is a Brexit Rudd said that policy decisions and positions, such as the specialist who joins Edelman after five years as a policy forthcoming Government paper on post-Brexit analyst at Open Europe.

HEARD ON THE FRINGE Jacob Rees-Mogg, Conservative MP “We need to be reiterating the benefits of Brexit… this is Magna Carta, it’s the Burgesses coming at Parliament, it’s the Great Reform bill… its Waterloo, its Agincourt, its Crécy. We win all these things.”

Owen Paterson, Conservative MP “If the European Union is still messing around by Christmas and they have not started serious discuss on reciprocal free trade based on recognition of conformity of standards we [should] give notice on the 1st of January that we will be moving to WTO rules.”

4 October 2017

Konrad Szymański, Polish Europe Minister “Before the Florence speech we were heading towards a serious breakdown, as of today there is a chance to avoid this…it is in both the Polish and the UK interest for Britain to maintain close ties with the EU post-Brexit”

With a team of consultants from across the political parties and straddling the EU Referendum divide, Edelman’s Public Affairs team is superbly placed to give you insight, analysis and advice on the Brexit negotiations and on the new Parliament. For more information or if you think we can help you, please get in touch with our Managing Director Will Walden at Will.Walden@Edelman.com and our Head of Brexit Advice, Lucy Thomas, at Lucy.Thomas@Edelman.com.