Government Reshuffle: An Edelman Analysis

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CABINET RESHUFFLE JANUARY 2018 Craig is a former Press Secretary to the Prime Minister who was called into Theresa May’s Downing Street in the aftermath of the 2017 General Election result. He worked on the Conservative election campaign and was previously special adviser at the Department for Culture, Media and Sport. Before that he spent eight years as a political journalist, most recently as Chief Political Correspondent at The Sun. At Edelman he has special responsibility for clients in the digital economy, gambling and sporting and leisure sectors. He also leads the company’s political media engagement strategy. Craig Woodhouse Director

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS Out of adversity comes opportunity, or so said Benjamin Franklin. And it is only 21 days since Theresa May suffered her last bit of adversity in a disastrous 2017 when close ally and long-term friend Damian Green was forced to quit as First Secretary of State after lying about porn that was found on his computer years ago. He was the third Cabinet minister forced out in less than two months, following Michael Fallon (caught up in the sexual harassment scandal) and Priti Patel (sacked for running freelance foreign policy with secret meetings in Israel) on to the scrapheap. But rather than a one-out-one-in replacement that followed the first two departures, the PM has used Green’s exit as an opportunity to refresh her ministerial team for the year ahead – a crucial 12 months with the Brexit clock ticking. Some in Westminster have already criticised this reshuffle as a missed opportunity, with a lack of changes at the very top showing that May’s authority remains damaged by last year’s election. And it wasn’t without adversity of its own, getting off to a botched start when Chris Grayling was mistakenly announced as Conservative Party Chairman; triggering a row over the appointment of pro-life MP Maria Caulfield as Tory vice chair for women; and leading to the resignation of Justine Greening after she refused to swap Education for Work and Pensions. But beyond the snap verdicts of the Twittersphere it is important to look at what the Prime Minister was trying to achieve with these changes, and what they represent.

The first thing is BREXIT STABILITY. By leaving her most senior Cabinet ministers in their posts, May has avoided disrupting the very complex task of extricating Britain from the EU. While she may not always see eye-to-eye with Philip Hammond, agree with how Boris Johnson goes about things, or be happy with David Davis’ public utterances, sacking them would have created needless instability. And with time running out, it would have made little sense to get new ministers up to speed. The second is May’s DOMESTIC AGENDA. While Brexit is paramount, the PM is determined that her premiership will not be completely defined by it and is still driven by the vision she set out on the steps of Downing Street of ‘building a country that works for everyone’. Adding housing to Communities Secretary Sajid Javid’s title, and handing responsibility for social care to the Department of Health, may be criticised as tinkering – but they are big issues the PM wants to tackle and these moves are designed to prove it. Greening’s departure as Education Secretary clears the way for a replacement in Damian Hinds who May will expect to be more closely aligned to her vision for schools. And thirdly there is BUILDING A PIPELINE OF TALENT. To refresh the Cabinet – and make it look more like modern Britain – you need a strong team of junior ministers who are ready to step up. Changes in the lower ministerial ranks will follow tomorrow, but the PM has sent a strong signal that she wants rising stars and hard workers to get on in the party by promoting the likes of Matt Hancock and Hinds to the Cabinet, and appointing 2017-intake MPs Kemi Badenoch and Ben Bradley as Conservative Vice Chairs.

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelmaneditions.com | 020 3047 2177 | @edelmanUK


THE HEADLINES BRANDON LEWIS - PARTY CHAIRMAN

Brandon Lewis’ tenure got off to an odd start after Chris Grayling was mistakenly announced as Chairman. Wellliked within the Party and considered an effective communicator, Lewis is a natural fit for the role and knows the PM well from their time together in the Home Office.

DAVID LIDINGTON – CABINET OFFICE

Safe pair of hands David Lidington moves from Justice to the Cabinet Office to fill the vacancy left by Damian Green before Christmas. He won’t become First Secretary but he will stand in for Theresa May at PMQs when she is away as he did once before as Commons Leader.

DAVID GAUKE – JUSTICE

MATT HANCOCK – DCMS

Hancock is the beneficiary of Bradley’s move to the Northern Ireland Office. The long-standing Osbornite has impressed the PM by staying loyal to the Government despite his demotion in 2016 and for his dedication to delivering on improved broadband and mobile coverage.

DAMIAN HINDS – EDUCATION

Hinds has built up an excellent reputation as a junior minister, so insiders aren’t surprised to see his competence recognised in this promotion. He previously chaired the APPG for social mobility, one of May’s key priorities, and will seek to make headway tackling Britain’s “burning injustices”.

ESTHER MCVEY – WORK AND PENSIONS

Solicitor David Gauke becomes the first Justice Secretary with a legal background since 2012. Regarded as an impressive media performer in tricky situations; while at the Treasury, they would call to “uncork the Gauke”.

Esther McVey’s appointment to DWP is already raising eyebrows as it was public opposition to the welfare cuts she championed when last in Government that lost her her seat in 2015. Esther is a competent media performer and is a much-needed female addition to the Cabinet.

KAREN BRADLEY – NORTHERN IRELAND

JUSTINE GREENING – RESIGNED

Karen Bradley replaces James Brokenshire as Secretary of State for Northern Ireland after the latter stepped down for health reasons. Insiders will understand that this is no demotion for the arch-May loyalist, as rising tensions in Northern Ireland call for a steady hand.

The biggest surprise came from Justine Greening. Having served in the Cabinet since 2011, and as one of its few prominent female members, her resignation was a blow to the PM’s plans to improve diversity in her Cabinet. Sources say she was offered DWP but turned it down.

STAKEHOLDER REACTION ISABEL HARDMAN THE SPECTATOR

Wondering if May has been taking advice on reshuffles from Jeremy Corbyn.

DAN HODGES MAIL ON SUNDAY

The whole point of a reshuffle is for the Prime Minister to use it to assert their authority. If reports about Hunt and Clark are true, it’s done the complete opposite.

TOM NEWTON DUNN THE SUN

The reshuffle is now in serious trouble. Hunt was supposed to emerge from No10 as the new Business Secretary. Appears Greg Clark has refused to budge.

RUTH DAVIDSON SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVES

Sorry to see @JustineGreening leave government – she brought her non-nonsense northern accountant’s eye to every brief and is a real role model for LGBT + Conservatives

GEORGE EATON THE NEW STATESMAN

Night of the blunt knives, so far.

LAURA KUENSSBERG BBC

Understand Hunt 'argued passionately' to stay at Health and take on reponsibility for sorting out social care (which had been under Damian Green) His arguments persuaded the PM to leave him in place

FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT WILL WALDEN, MANAGING DIRECTOR, PUBLIC AFFAIRS AND GOVERNMENT RELATIONS 0203 047 2625, will.walden@edelman.com Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK


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