Edelman Briefing: May's New Government by Edelman

THERESA MAY’S NEW GOVERNMENT – PRESENTED BY EDELMAN

Theresa May, her character and motivations Theresa May is the very picture of a political survivor. She spent 17 years on the Conservative front benches before becoming leader, and an astonishing 6 of these years were spent as Home Secretary. She did not achieve this success, as others may have done, by building a power base of loyal MPs willing to absorb shock waves around her or being what is now known as “clubbable”. Theresa’s skill comes in her ability to get her head down and get on with the job. Look at her career in front bench politics – from Education and Employment, to Transport, to Chairman, to Transport again, to Culture Media and Sport, to Leader of House, to Work and Pensions and finally the Home Office. She maintained a front bench job under four successive leaders, at a time of numerous Party “reboots”. She also did not pique at any perceived “demotions”. Theresa is not the sort of person to take offence when given a job to do. Theresa takes her dual roles as a constituency MP and a career politician very seriously. Ask those in her Maidenhead patch and you’ll hear of a tireless, active and very present constituency MP. Ask her former colleagues at the Home Office and you’ll hear of a steely politician who, having listened to advice, will form a vice-like grip on her preferred option and see it through to the end. You only need to look at Abu Qatada, or maybe even Michael Gove, to see what it’s like to be on the wrong side of Theresa May. It may take her some time but she will get there in the end, not by knifing people in the back, but through sheer hard work and determination. The new Prime Minister is far from vindictive. Those who read malice in her Cabinet appointments – and sackings – misunderstand her motivations. Theresa is smart and she is in it for the long game. Her new Cabinet starts a new page for the Conservative Party and ensures her own authority is stamped upon her own successes, and indeed failures. Yes, she may have given the three foreign affairs/Brexit roles to three prominent Brexiteers with an air of “you broke it you fix it”, but she knows that ultimate accountability rests with her. She isn’t hiding from the responsibilities of PM. The Cabinet and Government agenda can clearly be shown to be hers, even while sticking to the 2015 Manifesto (and avoiding the need for an early election). Theresa is known to have a strong moral compass and the determination to “do right”. Many put this down to

her upbringing as a minister’s daughter. Whatever her motivation, Theresa has been led throughout her career by a compassion for those who have less or could do more. This is noticeable in the people that have been closest to her throughout her career. Her Co-Chiefs of Staff Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill have a stellar pedigree in championing aspiration and fairness in society. Nick Timothy is an old-school firebrand in a younger man’s body – a passionate reformer and campaigner, the sort of adviser who will raise the new PMs sights beyond the Westminster bubble to the disenfranchised voices in the midlands and north of the country. And Fiona Hill is as passionate as she is loyal – she fought for the Modern Slavery Bill at the Home Office and even fell on her sword for Theresa, sacrificing her own career so Theresa wouldn’t damage hers. The new Prime Minister’s first speech outside No.10 had the marks of these two advisers all over it. Alongside the obvious challenges of Brexit, expect the May Government to aim for radical social reform in the name of the have nots – identified most broadly by the PM as the poor who will die 9 years earlier than others; black people who are treated more harshly by the criminal justice system; the white working class boys who are less likely to go to university; the state educated who are less likely to reach top professions; the young who can’t buy their own home; and the ordinary working class families who are just managing. It is the right of a new Prime Minister to start with ambitious aspiration, safe in the knowledge that events will always take over. But Theresa May isn’t one for hyperbole. Those who know her understand how honestly she spoke in that speech. Whether Brexit, her tiny parliamentary majority, or those she has jettisoned from Government to the backbenches will allow her to see through on her aspirations is yet to be seen. But if Theresa May’s past performance is anything to go by, I wouldn’t underestimate this political survivor. Her early moves have been to build goodwill across the Party and to look to the longer game rather than the quick wins. Her aim is not just to make a success of these four years but to win decisively in 2020 and despite the Brexit hand she has been given, she is in a very good place to do just that.

Saratha Rajeswaran is an Associate Director in Edelman London and a former adviser to Theresa May

The Team So Far and the Edelman Government App Edelman has created a resource to take you through the faces and roles in the Government. Click the image below to be taken to our Guide to the New Government.

Key Appointments The Three Brexiteers: Boris Johnson - A somewhat

surprising addition to Theresa May’s cabinet, Boris Johnson makes a political comeback just 2 weeks after being betrayed by Michael Gove. During the Conservative leadership contest, Theresa May had branded herself as the ‘unifying’ candidate and Boris’ appointment indicates her commitment to bridge the schism in the Party following the referendum. While many might question his competency at the FCO, it is important to note that under the ‘buffoonery’ is a well-read, multilingual politician who ran the ‘greatest city in the world’ for over 8 years.

David Davis - The former 2005

Conservative Party leadership contender returns to the frontbench after surprising many by stepping down from David Cameron’s Opposition front bench in 2008 (he also stood down as an MP and sparked his own by-election on the topic of civil liberties). Well-respected amongst Party members, he will be responsible for negotiating the UK’s exit out of the EU as Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union. Whilst this might seem like an important role, Theresa May will ultimately oversee the EU negotiations thus making his remit somewhat unclear.

Liam Fox - The former Defence

Secretary and 2016 Conservative Party leadership contender makes a comeback as Secretary of State for International Trade. The new department is a fleshed out version of the former UKTI department which sat under BIS and FCO. A controversial figure, following his resignation from the Defence brief in 2011 for breaking the ministerial code, his appointment raised many eyebrows. However, the role builds upon Dr Fox’s skills and experience as a famed Atlanticist and friend of the business community. Fox will do well if he puts his head down and isn’t consumed by the lust for power.

The political chameleon Chancellor: Philip Hammond – The new Chancellor, like the Prime Minister, is a political survivor. He was Shadow Chief Secretary to George Osborne in Opposition and missed out on the role in 2010 due to the Coalition Government. However, the “safe pair of hands” flourished in Government, moving from Transport to Defence and then onto the FCO after the 2015 election. However, very little is known about the new Chancellor’s personal political beliefs and it is not clear whether he will follow in the steps of Osborne’s austerity measures. Nonetheless, the way he handles the economy during Brexit will be scrutinised closely. Theresa May’s decision of keeping David Gauke in the Treasury will help steady the ship for the time being until Hammond gets fully up to speed with his new job. Another start for the business department: Greg Clark – Old political hacks

will remember the many incarnations of the business department over the past few decades. Greg Clark will now oversee another reboot as Secretary of State for the new Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS). As was the case prior to 2008, energy policy will now be partnered with business and industry policy, but with the added responsibility of tackling climate change. Many in the sector have expressed concern that the Government will use this opportunity to soften the UK’s commitment to climate change policy, particularly once the UK has left the EU. However, it is worth remembering that Clark shadowed the former Department for Energy and Climate Change in Opposition, showing a real aptitude for the brief. What remains to be seen, however, is how Clark takes to the business brief, and how he will see through the Prime Minister’s commitment to a new Industrial Strategy.

Strong and successful women Amber Rudd – Rising star Rudd

has been in Parliament for only 6 years and has come a long way from Energy Secretary in 2015 to the second most powerful woman in Cabinet. However, taking on the Prime Minister’s former brief could be a daunting prospect, assuming that Theresa May still has strong ideas about what needs to be done at the Home Office. Originally cast as one of Osborne’s cabal, Rudd did an excellent job in the Referendum campaign debates on the Pro-EU side, going for the jugular of her new Cabinet colleague Boris Johnson. Regarded in Westminster as “a safe pair of hands”, expect her to do well – if she can follow the May model and not succumb to the poison chalice of the Home Office, like so many of her Labour predecessors.

Liz Truss – Truss’ appointment as

Justice Secretary and Lord Chancellor has raised some eyebrows. Lord Faulks, a QC, and Anna Soubry MP, a former criminal barrister, both refused jobs under Truss at the Department for Justice, given that she has no legal

training or background. However, she is the third consecutive non-lawyer to hold the post, after Michael Gove and Chris Grayling, and noticeably the first woman to hold the post. Her background is as an economist and management consultant and before joining Parliament in 2010, she was Deputy Director of the think tank Reform. Known to be ambitious and reforming, it is worth waiting to see how Truss tackles Michael Gove’s unfinished prison reforms – which dovetail well with the Prime Minister’s own social reforms. It would be unwise to rule her out just yet.

Justine Greening – May’s

deputy campaign manager (who came over from Boris’ aborted campaign) has been rewarded with a beefed up Education brief, which now includes the skills agenda. A consummate hard-worker, expect Greening to roll up her sleeves and immerse herself in the detail of her new department. In her in-tray already will be the fate of the apprenticeship levy and the lifting of the grammar schools ban. On both issues expect the new Education Secretary to do her homework and take a decision in her own time.

The key advisers Nick Timothy – A long standing

May adviser, and now Co-Chief of Staff, Nick Timothy has been with the Prime Minister in Opposition and throughout most of her time at the Home Office. He left in 2015 after being blocked by No.10 from the Conservative Parliamentary Candidates list. Well known in Westminster and Whitehall, this grammar school boy is both a thinker and a doer, and a fierce proponent of social mobility. Having joined May’s No.10 team from the New School’s Network, where he was briefly Chief Executive Officer, we can assume that the free schools policy will remain intact under the new leadership.

Fiona Hill – A former newspaper

journalist, Fiona Hill (previously known by her married name, Cunningham) returns to Theresa May as Co-Chief of Staff. She was with May in Opposition and at the Home Office until 2014, when she was caught in the middle of a bitter feud between May and Michael Gove. Following her departure, Hill spent some time at the Centre for Social Justice, where she helped to see through her policy passion from the Home Office, the Modern Slavery Bill, and from there briefly worked in PR. In both these roles she maintained a close link to the May team, and it therefore came as no surprise when she returned to the fold for the leadership campaign.

Katie Perrior – Another

longstanding member of the May inner-circle, Katie Perrior becomes the first non-journalist to hold the role of No.10 Director of Communications. She has been with May since the 2002 “nasty Party” speech and after stints in ITV and Channel 4 she went on to set up her own PR firm, In-House PR, where she supported Boris Johnson in his successful 2008 Mayoral campaign. Affable and likeable, expect Perrior to be a marked, and potentially welcome, departure from her predecessors. Her broad overview of communications markets, with no preference for print, broadcast or social, could deliver a more strategic approach to No.10.

John Godfrey - The least

well known of May’s No.10 inner circle, John Godfrey is Theresa May’s Head of Policy. A Scot, he has experience of Whitehall, starting out as a Special Adviser to John Pattern and Douglas Hurd in the Home Office in the 80s. Most recently he has spent almost the last decade working for the financial services company Legal and General (L&G) as Corporate Affairs Director. Prior to joining L&G, Mr Godfrey was Head of European Communications at Lehman Brothers Holdings.

The Oppositions Who leads Labour? Theresa May’s election comes at a time when Labour is in total disarray. Even if the Opposition were rooted in the centre ground, were coming up with policies which spoke to large swathes of the electorate and were led by a commanding figure, the new Prime Minister would be a formidable nemesis. The fact that Labour is currently none of those things means that the party’s problems are acute – possibly terminal. It is difficult to see how Labour MPs can extricate the Party from the mess it has inflicted on itself. Jeremy Corbyn enjoys minimal support from his parliamentary colleagues, but simultaneously he has the overwhelming backing of Party members across the country – a situation which will most likely be confirmed in this summer’s leadership challenge with Owen Smith. During this campaign, Theresa May can look forward to a continually ineffective Opposition consumed with fighting itself. If Corbyn wins again, then the possibility of a split in the Labour Party looms. A narrow result will probably lead MPs to bide their time and try again in a few months; but a second Corbyn landslide could prompt a sizeable group of Labour MPs to declare parliamentary independence. In extremis, they could elect their own leader and potentially supplant Corbyn’s team as the official Opposition. This, though, would largely depend on the advice given by the Speaker and would be really uncharted territory. Such a move would also launch a fight over the Labour Party’s name, headquarters, resources and assets – with no guarantee that the rebels would win. The Corbyn situation is one without parallel in modern times; given recent events it would be foolish to predict exactly what will happen. But it is widely accepted that the free hand being dealt to the

Conservatives by a Labour Party that may be in a death spiral is bad for the country and bad for our democracy.

Sturgeon’s SNP The SNP is arguably in the best position at the moment, and the UK’s decision to leave the EU has given Nicola Sturgeon further ammunition to call for a second referendum on Scottish independence. Theresa May spoke passionately in her first speech as Prime Minister about her commitment to the Union – as leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party – and made her first official visit to Scotland 48 hours after becoming Prime Minister to show her commitment to working with Holyrood as the UK negotiates its exit. What will be interesting to see is how Theresa May’s relationship with Nicola Sturgeon develops, and whether this might just be what keeps the UK together.

The Future of UKIP after Brexit The surprising Brexit vote has put UKIP in a difficult position as the UK’s exit from the EU was the main reason for their existence. Following the vote, UKIP leader Nigel Farage resigned, perhaps aware that there was nothing left to be done, or at least nothing that he was interested in. The next leader of the Party will now have to work hard to drive the Party in a new direction. Bookies favourite to succeed Farage is Steven Woolfe MEP, who has already indicated that he plans to focus the Party on social mobility, targeting the traditional Labour vote in the north and midlands. If the Labour Party continues to be in disarray under Jeremy Corbyn, this approach could produce surprising dividends for UKIP, or at least split the traditional left vote in the north, making target seats more winnable for the Tories.

FURTHER INFORMATION Financial Services – Overview

Gurpreet Brar Managing Director Public Affairs London Edelman London gurpreet.brar@edelman.com +44 203 047 2466

Anthony Marlowe Director Public Affairs London Edelman London anthony.marlowe@edelman.com +44 20 3047 2152

Saratha Rajeswaran Associate Director Public Affairs London Edelman London saratha.rajeswaran@edelman.com +44 203 047 2661