Labour Party Conference 2016 by Edelman

LABOUR PARTY CONFERENCE 2016 Conference OVERVIEW Plenty of Labour conference goers entertained themselves over the course of this week with a visit to some of Liverpool’s many Beatles-themed attractions – not least dancing along to several tribute acts in the bars. But will Jeremy Corbyn’s refusal to be a Tony Blair tribute act help the party get back to where they once belonged – in government? In his electrifying speech, Deputy Leader Tom Watson pleaded for “the band to get back together” and unity was certainly the watchword, if remarks from the podium were anything to go by. But all too often, on Conference floor and on the fringe, the cracks which the party was desperately trying to paper over yawned open – and the potential for conflict in the future was there for all to see. For all the talk of moving forward, the truth is that there is little reason to believe that 2017 will be any better for Labour than 2016 has been. Behind the scenes, the week was dominated by a row over control of the party’s ruling body, with Corbyn suffering a reverse on Scottish and Welsh representation which should provide for a majority against him on the National Executive. Meanwhile, the Left narrowly won the right for Conference to pick apart future Labour policy line by line. Both set up internal disputes to come.

However, the dispute of more interest to the wider world will be over immigration. Corbyn re-emphasised in his speech his belief in its benefits – but his departing Shadow Home Secretary, Andy Burnham, demanded that Labour re-engage with voters who don’t share the leader’s view. Meanwhile, prominent backbenchers from Chuka Umunna to Rachel Reeves are suggesting that in the wake of the Brexit vote, Labour must accept that changes to immigration rules are essential if the party is to get back in touch with voters – particularly in its heartlands. Left-wing party members will inevitably brand this as a betrayal and dissent from the Corbyn line as refusing to heed his call for people to come together. This goes to the heart of the problem – one which remains unresolved from this summer’s fractious leadership challenge. Corbyn argues that it’s “no good harking back to the models of 20 or 30 years ago … they won’t work anymore”, and the members are behind his call for change; but the MPs are convinced that harking back is exactly what he is doing, with a programme of unfriendliness to business and mass nationalisation – one that will never command electoral support. That fundamental divide has not been bridged by this conference; so it seems unlikely that, in Tom Watson’s words, the party will be “getting the unity memo” any time soon.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? The last year has seen the Labour Party divided as never before. With the re-election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader, what are the most likely scenarios for the Opposition in the coming 12 months? Peace Breaks Out. The leader means what

he says; unity is the watchword. His office reaches out to moderate figures without preconditions, talk of deselection of unsupportive MPs is dropped and the PLP falls in line as the leadership talks to the wider country. Verdict: chances are vanishingly small. 0/10

A New SDP. In a repeat of the events of the 1980s, moderates in despair at Corbyn’s agenda split from Labour and create a new centre-left party. A figure such as Chuka Umunna emerges as its leader, creating a crisis for the Liberal Democrats, many of whose members drift towards the new party. Verdict: some will call for this but most Labour MPs love their

party too much and remember their history. 5/10

Round 3. Fight! Another casus belli – a proposal to deploy troops to Syria, a split on a totemic public service reform, or developments around Article 50 – splits Labour, and Corbyn’s behaviour is so provocative that his MPs once again declare no confidence in him. A candidate emerges to challenge him – and the 2017 Labour Leadership Contest is on. Verdict: unless the party membership changes there’s no guarantee of success, but moderates may choose to continue to attack until Corbyn is exhausted. 7/10 Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss. After the distraction of the summer, Labour gets back to what it’s been doing for the last year: stumbling from day to day, the leader’s operation arguing with journalists and having rows with MPs. Policy is developed but it is piecemeal and hostile to business. Although some return to the front bench, most moderates seek alternative careers on Select Committees. Verdict: for all the noise, the fact remains that Labour’s MPs and members are in a standoff. The status quo ante prevails. 9/10

POLICY TAKEAWAYS Trident More of a non-announcement: Shadow Defence Secretary Clive Lewis was reportedly set to confirm Labour’s support for Trident, but had his speech changed on the autocue by the leader’s spokesman, Seumas Milne. Although Lewis believes the issue settled, Jeremy Corbyn has signalled that he wants it re-opened – despite trade union support for renewal.

Childcare Shadow Education Secretary Angela Rayner announced a review, to be chaired by Unison, to examine childcare and early years provision. The aim is to provide “the care and support for every child to fulfil their potential and to help parents back to work”. It will find favour across the party, and Rayner’s stock is rising.

Fracking The pledge to ban fracking outright is one of the boldest policy moves Labour has made of late. While not a priority issue for the public, opposition to fracking has grown in recent years and it may have local pockets of strong support. However, it places the Labour leadership directly at odds with the GMB – Labour’s third biggest donor. EU funding Labour pledged to continue any regional funding previously granted by the EU after Brexit. The move is an attempt to outflank the Government (whose similar pledge has a number of conditions). It will have the most financial impact in Wales, the South West and North West – areas where Labour has underperformed in recent elections. Living Wage John McDonnell pledged a £10 living wage in 2015, but he put flesh on the bones this year. A new body will be charged with determining the minimum wage that people need to live comfortably, while Labour will consult with SMEs to ensure the policy is affordable for them. Expect further moves towards Labour’s backing for a Universal Basic Income.

CONFERENCE REACTION David Schneider – Comedian

Christian May – Editor, City AM

Bloody Corbyn. Coming over here, pointing out migrants contribute to growth, that it’s the Tories who put strain on our services, not them …

Corbyn’s pitch is that old ideas have failed and we can’t go backwards. As he promises to nationalise rail, impose socialism.

David Aaronovitch – Commentator, The Times

Nicholas Soames – Conservative MP

I’m not a fan of @tom_watson, God knows. But I’ve just caught up with his Labour conference speech and I agree, it was an absolute belter.

“The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity”. W B Yeats 1919; Labour Party 2016 #cynicalfoolsnoidea

Michael Deacon – Sketchwriter, The Telegraph

Philip Collins – Columnist, The Times

Seamus Milne now wishing he’d deleted Tom Watson’s entire speech.

I credit Corbyn for his immigration position. I know the political risk but this is what he thinks and fair enough that he should say so.

FURTHER INFORMATION Gurpreet Brar Managing Director, Public Affairs Edelman UK Gurpreet.Brar@edelman.com +44 (0) 20 3047 2466

Rob Newman Senior Account Manager Public Affairs Edelman UK Robert.Newman@edelman.com +44 (0) 20 3047 2091