Population problems – dealing with school demographics

SIMON HEPBURN, founder of Marketing Advice for Schools, explains why the biggest challenge for schools may be something they can’t control…

Demographics - they’re probably the most powerful force affecting schools’ income and performance – and also something that you have no control over!

Take two of today’s biggest issues - the shortage of teachers (especially in secondary schools) and the looming shortage of pupils in primary schools. A recent drop in the birth rate is causing the fall in the number of primary school pupils, while (in addition to many other factors) the teacher shortage is being heavily impacted by both a bulge in population in the teenage years and a drop in the number of people in their early twenties who could train as teachers.

The overall number of people in the country is the most obvious demographic factor that hits schools, but the word (which means ‘statistics that describe populations and their characteristics’) also covers other attributes such as age, race, sex and faith, and there are big variations in all these in different areas. These can all have a huge impact on schools. In recent years I’ve worked with a couple of faith schools where the communities that practiced that faith have moved from the area around the school. I’ve also worked with a primary school where the large housing estate they drew their pupils from gradually became full of older families, and recruitment dried up and with a school where the ethnic groups they relied on changed significantly. In all three cases, the schools experienced significant recruitment problems hitting budgets and putting jobs at risk.

On the other hand, demographic changes can be positive for schools that can take advantage of them. Schools local to me in Manchester have seen significant and welcome increases in numbers due to the positive steps they have taken to recruit students from Hong Kong and Ukraine. Meanwhile a school I know in London has formed strong links with a new and growing Eritrean community.

So, how do you avoid demographic change derailing your school’s development? Here are seven ideas…

1

TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR SCHOOL’S DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH

While you might hope that local and national government would use their insight to avoid problems, this often does not happen in practice – a recent article on free schools in the London Evening Standard was entitled –‘Revealed: more free schools planned for London as pupil numbers dry up’!

2

Plan Well Ahead

A lot of demographic information is known about a long time before it will hit a school, the most obvious being the local birth rate. This means you can make small, minor changes over time, rather than last minute major ones. For example, you might choose not to expand and add a new form of entry if you know that application numbers will fall in two or three years’ time.

3

Explore The Research That Is Available

There are many sources of demographic information. The Office for National Statistics has a huge range of information – the first place to look for English schools is probably the ‘subnational population projections for England: 2018-based’ (https://www. ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/ populationandmigration/populationprojections /bulletins/subnationalpopulationprojections forengland /2018based). This report lets you model the population changes in different areas, year-by-year. Local authorities also have their own extensive data –such as Manchester City Council’s Intelligence Hub: (https://dashboards.instantatlas.com/viewer/ report?appid=0d1fdf43ebbd4727ac9be5d71e77e878).

4

and, of course, you can involve teachers and students in the process. For example, in a secondary school, you could talk to your geography department; they may already be looking at changes in the local area as part of their curriculum!

5 CHANGE YOUR SCHOOL’S OFFERINGS

If your community is changing you will need to change with it. This might mean adapting to different languages or cultures, encouraging people from different communities to join your governing body or staff, or offering different extra-curricular activities. Faith-based schools may also need to consider how they can attract, reassure, and work with students from other faith backgrounds – for example, the Catholic Education Service recently reported that there are more than 34,000 Muslim pupils in Catholic state schools. (https://www.thecatholicnetwork.co.uk/englandcatholic-school-pupils-much-more-diverse-thannational-average-new-data/)

6

Engage With New Communities

There are many ways schools can benefit from changing demographics. Reaching out to new communities, and inviting them to visit your school, can significantly increase applications, but it’s also worth thinking wider than this. For example, many schools have brought in extra income by renting school facilities to communities that need large wedding venues, while others have recruited parent volunteers to help those learning English.

7

Do Your Own Research

You should regularly monitor changes in your local community, talking to feeder schools and analysing your student intake to see what changes are taking place -

Change Your Marketing And Communications

One obvious change is that you might need to use different languages when communicating with parents and carers. Also the photographs and videos on your website or adverts might need to be more representative of the families you’re trying to attract. 