Cancún
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content
1|2 Cancun 2010 3|4 Too much dispute 5|6 Unprecedented first steps 7|8 193 under one roof 9 | 10 Time to be bold 11| 12 A little a lot 13 | 14 Temperature increase cap goals
King College Cambridge
15 | 16 The ice caps are melting 17 | 18 Building sea walls 19 | 20
Guide to CancĂşn
2010
A better dialogue 21 | 22 Fixing the past and the future
Cancun 2010
november
29 WHat needs to be covered
what will be explained
Unprecedented first steps What was expected from the debates may have been ambitious and vague, with a general sense that perhaps what was needed to be concluded would be left in either un-resolved or falling short of new standards. Small steps vs. global accords Some agreement should be met for initial actions to be taken by both LEDC and MEDC regarding financial input. Fixing the past (and future) There have been several conclusions from previous debates in the past that have hurt the present, there must now be a system to protect the future. A better dialogue More so than with the discussions in Copenhagen, a general fuller agreement accross the board was met. But has this led to any siginificant advances? Sustainablility Software & Clean Energy The progress towards clean energy through the development of sustainably software and technology is a huge step in the right direction. Green Fund King College Cambridge
Where will this money come from and which nations will have greater financial expactions sought of them. Glacial Melting Reports of major a increase in global temperature and most of all in the Arctic have been collected by field work. Building Sea Walls 2010
The threat of global warming will affect the levels of the sea. A serious long term issue that needs adressing now. US & Replublicans With the US on the verge of Replublican control, a hold off on the Kyoto Guide to CancĂşn
protocol regarding MEDC investment in climate control may be on hold until 2012. What Else Will Cancun be Doing? Looking ahead to further involvment in climate control in Cancun.
1 2
too much dispu
ute
The tangible advances were noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements set emissions mitigation targets for some 80 countries, including all the major economies. That means that the world’s largest emitters, among them China, the United States, the European Union, India, and Brazil, have now signed up for targets and actions to reduce emissions by 2020. The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an official United Nations accord -- to keep temperature increases below a global average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). Yes, that goal is no more stringent than the one set out in Copenhagen, but this time, the participating nations formally accepted the goals; a year earlier, they merely “noted” them, without adopting the accord. Other provisions establish a “Green Climate Fund” to finance steps to limit and adapt to climate change, and designate the World Bank as interim trustee, over the objections of many developing countries. And new initiatives will protect tropical forests, and find ways to transfer clean energy technology to poorer countries. The Cancun Agreements on their own are clearly not sufficient to keep temperature increases below 2 degrees C, but they are a valuable step forward in the difficult process of constructing a sound foundation for meaningful, long-term global action. The
participating
countries
also
agreed -- for the first time in an official United Nations accord -- to keep temperature increases below a global average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). Yes, that goal is no more stringent than the one set out in Copenhagen, but this time, the participating nations formally accepted the goals; a year earlier, they merely “noted” them, without adopting the accord.
Other provisions establish a “Green Climate Fund” to finance steps to limit and adapt to climate change, and designate the World Bank as interim trustee, over the objections of many developing countries. And new initiatives will protect tropical forests, and find ways to transfer clean energy technology to poorer countries.
3 4
Unprecedented first steps
After the modest results of the climate change talks in Copenhagen a little more than a year ago, expectations were low for the follow-up negotiations in Cancun last month. Gloomand-doom predictions dominated.
emissions and allowing outside veri-
those issues could be forthcoming as
noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements
fication. The developing world insists
soon as today.
set emissions mitigation targets for
that rich countries commit to financ-
some 80 countries, including all the
ing their efforts to cut emissions
binding commitments from other
major economies. That means that
through programs such as protecting
countries that they cut emissions,
the world’s largest emitters, among
rainforests and sharing clean energy
and allow transparent outside
them China, the United States, the
technology, and to help them adapt
monitoring of their emissions output.
European Union, India, and Brazil,
to impacts such as rising sea levels
Some environmentalists say that the
have now signed up for targets and
and increased drought.
United States is essentially “holding
The tangible advances were
But the United States insists on
actions to reduce emissions by 2020.
Those are the essential sides of
hostage” the forestry and technology
The participating countries also
what U.S. climate envoy Todd Stern
language until it gets agreement from
agreed -- for the first time in an offi-
calls the “balanced package” he
China and other developing countries
cial United Nations accord -- to keep
hopes will emerge by Friday. Stern
on transparency.
temperature increases below a global
said Tuesday that a deal is in sight--
average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees
but that the biggest stumbling block
issues have long been the core stum-
F). Yes, that goal is no more stringent
remains transparency in monitoring
bling blocks in climate negotiations.
than the one set out in Copenhagen,
global carbon emissions.
Many countries--particularly China-
but this time, the participating na-
He also said a new announcement
The mitigation and transparency
-view independent outside monitor-
tions formally accepted the goals;
by the U.S. Overseas Private Invest-
ing of their industrial emissions
a year earlier, they merely “noted”
ment Corporation, an independent
as an infringement of sovereignty.
them, without adopting the accord.
government agency that supports
But the United States and other
Other provisions establish a
overseas investment, to provide
“Green Climate Fund” to finance
$300 million in financing for new
steps to limit and adapt to climate
private equity investment funds for
change, and designate the World
renewable energy projects in emerg-
Bank as interim trustee, over the
ing markets, could help advance
objections of many developing coun-
prospects for agreement.
tries. And new initiatives will protect
The idea is not to reach a legally
tropical forests, and find ways to
binding global climate treaty, but to
transfer clean energy technology to
come up with a document that some
poorer countries.
are calling the “Cancun Commu-
The Cancun Agreements on their
nique,” which would pave the way
own are clearly not sufficient to keep
for a global agreement to eventually
temperature increases below 2 de-
replace the landmark Kyoto Protocol
grees C, but they are a valuable step
that expires in 2012.
forward in the difficult process of
Negotiators here are homing in
constructing a sound foundation for
on detailed language for programs
meaningful, long-term global action.
to reduce mass deforestation--which
These are the questions at the
now contributes about 20 percent to
heart of the divide between the
the world’s carbon emissions--and to
developed world, led by the United
create a technology transfer program,
States, and the developing world, led
which would facilitate use of clean
by China. The United States demands
and renewable technology in poor
that polluting countries, including
countries. Stern suggested that a
India and China, commit to cutting
breakthrough agreement on one of
Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, R-Wis Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass Contributor. Ned Helme Contributor. Joe Mendelson Featured in the National Journal, December 2010
But a funny thing happened on the way to that much-anticipated failure: During two intense weeks of discussions in the Mexican resort that wrapped up at 3 a.m. on Dec. 12, the world’s governments quietly achieved consensus on a set of substantive steps forward. Equally important, the participants showed encouraging signs of learning to navigate through the unproductive squabbling between developed and developing countries that derailed the Copenhagen talks.
developed nations say that a uniform
last week called “pathetic.” The new
and verifiable system of monitor-
$300 million investment announce-
ing greenhouse gas emissions is a
ment could boost the U.S. total -- and
core underpinning of any effort to
OPIC estimates that that number
meaningfully reduce global warming
could eventually grow to $1 billion.
pollution. “The issue where there is clearly insufficient development--in terms of what’s in the text, the ideas are perfectly clear--is transparency,” Stern said at a press briefing. “The issue is whether you do an honest-to-goodness process ... countries are going to submit reports and there’s going to be an expert panel to review them--that kind of thing doesn’t have to be long, it can be a page. But if you look at technology, financing, [forest protection], you have a lot more detail. You can look at those decisions and there’s a lot substantive there and the transparency is lagging behind,” he said. Indian Environment Minister Jairem Ramesh has offered a draft proposal on transparency in hopes of bridging the impasse. “The Ramesh proposal was quite constructive. There’s a lot of support in the conference for the kind of proposal the Indians have put down,” Stern said. “But not from everybody who matters, yet.” India and other developed countries have criticized the United States for not putting enough money into its end of the bargain. America has committed to mobilize $30 billion globally in climate aid in the next two years from rich countries to developing nations, and to start a flow of $100 billion a year by 2020. The United States has appropriated $1.8 billion in fiscal 2010 for the climate aid -- an amount Ramesh
5 6
193 nation under
Many of the delegates from 193 countries who gathered in Cancun, Mexico for the start of the annual two-week meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, are now looking at short-term strategies to help solve a long-term problem.
The tangible advances were
Other provisions establish a
noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements
“Green Climate Fund” to finance
set emissions mitigation targets for
steps to limit and adapt to climate
some 80 countries, including all the
change, and designate the World
major economies. That means that
Bank as interim trustee, over the
the world’s largest emitters, among
objections of many developing coun-
them China, the United States, the
tries. And new initiatives will protect
European Union, India, and Brazil,
tropical forests, and find ways to
have now signed up for targets and
transfer clean energy technology to
actions to reduce emissions by 2020.
poorer countries.
The participating countries also
The participating countries also
agreed -- for the first time in an offi-
agreed -- for the first time in an offi-
cial United Nations accord -- to keep
cial United Nations accord -- to keep
temperature increases below a global
temperature increases below a global
average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees
average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees
F). Yes, that goal is no more stringent
F). Yes, that goal is no more stringent
than the one set out in Copenhagen,
than the one set out in Copenhagen,
but this time, the participating na-
but this time, the participating na-
tions formally accepted the goals;
tions formally accepted the goals;
a year earlier, they merely “noted”
a year earlier, they merely “noted”
them, without adopting the accord.
them, without adopting the accord.
Other provisions establish a “Green Climate Fund” to finance
ns 1 roof steps to limit and adapt to climate change, and designate the World Bank as interim trustee, over the
objections of many developing coun-
tries. And new initiatives will protect tropical forests, and find ways to
transfer clean energy technology to poorer countries.
The Cancun Agreements on their
own are clearly not sufficient to keep temperature increases below 2 de-
grees C, but they are a valuable step forward in the difficult process of
constructing a sound foundation for
meaningful, long-term global action.
7 8
Time to Be Bold
The EU has forced its industry and energy sector into a cap-and-trade carbon scheme since 2005. The hope in Brussels has always been that the rest of the world would follow suit. After all, the Kyoto Protocol was specifically designed to achieve carbon reductions through market mechanisms. In practice, however, the EU is still virtually the only region in the world that caps emissions from its own industry. The latest round of climate negotiations finished on Saturday in CancĂşn has not brought a change in this status quo. It is still uncertain whether the world will agree to extend the Kyoto protocol beyond 2012, and just as uncertain what an international or global emission trading scheme will look like, if it will ever come about at all.
Because of the global urgency,
quired calculated within an in depth
there must be the political will to
research project.Greenhouse Gas
return earth’s temperature to its
emissions resulting from destruc-
natural pre-industrial level, and strict
tive land use practices including in
time frames must be imposed, so that
the rural, the urban and peri-urban
overall global emissions of green-
environment must end. In order
house gases will begin to be reversed
to achieve the required emission
as of 2011. There must be a global
reductions, deforestation and the
target for greenhouse gas emission
destruction of carbon sinks must end
reductions of at least 30% below
immediately and developing nations
1990 levels by 2015, at least 50% be-
whose development will be affected
low 1990 levels by 2020, at least 75%
must be compensated.
below 1990 levels by 2030, at least
The right to development must
85% below 1990 levels by 2040 and
be fulfilled so as to equitably meet
100% below 1990 emissions by 2050
developmental and environmental
(please see table 1 for detailed data
needs of developing countries and of
calculations), while adhering to the
present and future generations.
precautionary principle, the differen-
The credible current emerging
tiated responsibility principle *, and
science has indicated that the global
the fair and just transition principle.
climate crisis is much more urgent
The required reductions in emissions
than was conveyed in the 2007 IPCC
cannot be achieved without an imme-
Report that was based on data from
diate end to the destruction of carbon
the years 2004 and 2005. As such
sinks. Under the UNFCCC, every
current and emerging science and
state signatory incurred the obliga-
not the science from the 2007 IPCC
tion to conserve carbon sinks; thus
Report must be used in Cancun.
the destruction of sinks, including
The emissions reduction required
deforestation and elimination of bogs
to avoid dangerous climate change
must end immediately.
and the small timeframes available to
The goal of COP 16 must be to
achieve this are so extreme that the
return temperatures to pre-industrial
methods used to achieve the required
levels and return atmospheric CO2
reductions must be based on the
back to 278ppm at the latest by 2050.
maximum achievable targets within
To succeed in being below the dangerous 1°C, member states of the United Nations must commit to
the shortest timeframes as described in diagram 1. The Global Humanitarian Forum
remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
Climate Change Human Impact re-
It is estimated that to remove the
port that summarised data including
necessary CO2 from the atmosphere,
that issued by WHO on the impacts
member states of the United Nations
estimates that in 2009, 325 million
would have to committo remov-
people were seriously affected by
ing over 1000GT CO2 by 2050.
climate change (based on negative
This must be done through socially
health outcomes), and there were
equitable and environmentally safe
303,000 deaths as a result of climate
and sound methods and the levels re-
change. It predicts that in 2030, 660
The Peoples Conference in Cochabamba, Bolivia Revised and updated August 2010 for COP16 in Cancun Joan Russow (PhD) Canada, Global Compliance Research Project (GlobalComplianceResearch@gmail.com) Richard Levicki (MSc) England International Sustainable Development Network (Richardlevicki@isdnet.co)
million people a year will be affected
member states of the United Nations
by climate change and that 471,500
agreed, in Chapter 33 of Agenda
people will die from climate change.
21, to the reallocation of military
These factual estimates invoke very
expenses. Additionally budgetary
serious legal obligations for im-
sources for this Fund would be the
mediate action based on the current
redirecting of subsidies from socially
science. Action that will knowingly
inequitable and environmentally un-
cause deaths which number over 10
sound non-sustainable energy. The
million must be treated as crimes.
financial deal must include the can-
Climate change could kill 250,000
cellation of the outstanding debt of
children next year, and the figure
developing states, and the implemen-
could rise to more than 400,000 by
tation of the minimal long-standing
2030, according to a report by Save
commitment of 0.7% of GDP being
the Children, Feeling the Heat.
transferred to Overseas Develop-
Industrialized states and major •
2016 - The five year plan for emission cuts will have reached a steady decline, headed possitivly for the 50% marker in 2020.
•
ment (ODA). The 0.7% obligation for
2050 - Will see a
greenhouse gas producers must be
development must not be diverted
marker will be reached.
significant reduction in
At this stage further
emission and a balanc-
prepared to enter into binding obli-
to climate change; there must be an
technological advances
ing point or emissions
gations not only through targets and
additional obligation of more than
in clean energy will
and productivity is
time frames but also through funding
7% of GDP specifically designated for
accelerate progress to-
reached.
mechanisms. This fund could be
addressing climate change preven-
named Fund for the Implementation
tion. Any shortfall in funding should
of the UNFCCC, and it would fund
be bolstered by increased ODA by na-
socially equitable and environ-
tions that inequitably have gained an
mentally safe and sound energy
advantage from historical emissions
renewable energy, transportation,
or reduction scenarios that are not in
agriculture and forestry. This fund
line with the principle of equity.
2020 - The 50%
wards the next market
•
would replace the GEF as the main
The Commission on Sustainable
source of funding for the UNFCCC.
Development, in light of the failure
This international fund would
in negotiations of CSD15 must now
take funds traditionally distributed
produce an appropriate outcome on
not only through the GEF but also
climate change and other issues, be
through the Bretton Woods institu-
upgraded to a Council, which would
tions, such as the International Mon-
be able to convene at any time to deal
etary Fund and the World Bank, and
with new or emerging environmen-
additional bilateral funds, and now
tal threats. The General Assembly
be channelled through this global
Resolution A/RES/47/191 states
fund. This fund would be indispen-
that the Commission on Sustainable
sable for preventing climate change,
Development (CSD) should ensure
and for achieving the objectives of
effective follow-up to Agenda 21, and
the UNFCCC. Additional funds must
other UNCED obligations and com-
be derived from reallocation of global
mitments that Includes the UNFCCC.
military expenses, including budgets and arms production; at the 1992 United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development, all
9 10
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y 2020 $100 bn by 2020 $100 bn by 2020 $100 bn by
The tangible advances were noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements set emissions mitigation targets for some 80 countries, including all the major economies. That means that the world’s largest emitters, among them China, the United States, the European Union, India, and Brazil, have now signed up for targets and actions to reduce emissions by 2020. The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an official United Nations accord -- to keep temperature increases below a global average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). Yes, that goal is no more stringent than the one set out in Copenhagen, but this time, the participating nations formally accepted the goals; a year earlier, they merely “noted” them, without adopting the accord. Other provisions establish a “Green Climate Fund” to finance steps to limit and adapt to climate change, and designate the World Bank as interim trustee, over the objections of many developing countries. And new initiatives will protect tropical forests, and find ways to transfer clean energy technology to poorer countries. The Cancun Agreements on their own are clearly not sufficient to keep temperature increases below 2 degrees C, but they are a valuable step forward in the difficult process of constructing a sound foundation for meaningful, long-term global action. The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an official United Nations accord -- to keep temperature increases below a global average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). Yes, that goal is no more stringent than the one set out in Copenhagen, but this time, the participating nations formally accepted the goals; a year earlier, they merely “noted” them, without adopting the accord. Other provisions establish a “Green Climate Fund” to finance steps to limit and adapt to climate change, and designate the World Bank as interim trustee, over the objections of many developing countries. And new initiatives will protect tropical forests, and find ways to transfer clean energy technology to poorer countries.
11 12
n o p a C ˚ 2 a r e p m e T s a e r c In
n e r u t a e s otewere n vances d a t le gib ents se The tan Agreem n u c n a ome : The C ts for s worthy n targe o ti a r ig ns mit e majo g all th emissio in d lu c in ntries, t the 80 cou ans tha m hat me T . s ie ong the econom ters, am st emit e o g r r u la E world’s tes, the ited Sta , have the Un il , z a a r in B h d C dia, an n I , n actions io n ets and pean U for targ p u d e n . y 2020 now sig sions b s also ce emis u ie d tr e r n to ng cou ti a ip c ofti r e in an The pa first tim e th keep r -- fo ord -- to agreed ons acc ti a N d lo g bal nite below a ficial U creases in e r grees atu (3.6 de temper rees C g e d gent 2 of ore strin average is no m l a o g e t g n, , tha openha F). Yes ut in C o t e s e e on ting na than th articipa p e th , ; time e goals but this pted th ” lly acce a d te m r o n fo “ tions merely r, they e li r a e a year
. accord ng the t adopti een r u o G “ h it a them, w stablish e s n io rovis s to Other p ce step to finan ” d n u F nge, ate cha Climate t to clim p a d a d k as rld Ban limit an f the Wo te a n tions o sig e objec and de , over th e w e te n s u d tr s. An interim countrie rests, eloping v e d y p n o ical fo ma rotect tr p l il n w e ergy ves r clean initiati transfe to s y a . dw untries and fin orer co y to po their g n lo o o n ts tech reemen g A n u nc The Ca cient to ot suffi w learly n c e r a es belo own increas ble erature a p lu m a v te re a keep t they a cess of es C, bu cult pro fi 2 degre if d e th in for rward dation step fo nd foun u o s n. a cting al actio constru rm glob e -t g n gful, lo s also meanin countrie ipating c ti r a an ofp The t time in the firs keep r fo --d to agreed s accor n o ti a bal nited N w a glo ficial U es belo s a e r c ature in egrees temper C (3.6 d egrees nt d 2 f o stringe average o more n is l a o agen, , that g Copenh F). Yes et out in s e n nao e ipating than th e partic th , e m ls; ti the goa but this ccepted a y ll a rm tions fo
d” ly “note y mere e th , r e ord. arli the acc a year e opting d a t u o “Green ith blish a them, w ns esta io is v o r steps to Other p finance , und” to F te change a Clim climate to t p a d ad nk as limit an orld Ba f te the W a n ig ctions o s je e and d r the ob e v o , e w e truste . And n interim untries ts, ping co lo e v e al fores d many ct tropic te o r p l r e gy ves wil lean en initiati nsfer c a tr to s. d ways and fin countrie poorer to y g lo techno
13 14
the ice caps are melting...still
Arctic sea ice extent averaged
As in February, the Arctic Oscil-
over the month of March 2011 was
lation (AO) mainly stayed in its
14.56 million square kilometers
positive phase, which tends to bring
(5.62 million square miles). This is
lower-than-average pressure over
the second-lowest March extent on
much of the Arctic, and higher-than-
record, after 2006.
normal pressure in middle latitudes.
In March, ice extent remained
For more information on current AO
below normal in both the Atlantic
conditions, visit the NOAA Climate
and Pacific sectors of the Arctic,
Prediction Center Web page.
particularly in the Labrador Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence Ice extent showed little change
arctic sea ice extent (area of ocean with at least 15% sea ice)
Every year at the start of the melt season, scientists look at sea ice age, using data from satellites and buoys.
through the month of March, as
Older ice that has survived several
is typical this time of year. The ice
summer melt seasons tends to be
reached its winter maximum extent
thicker, while newer ice is thinner
on March 7, and over the next few
and more vulnerable to melt in sum-
weeks, ice extent declined only
mer. Over the past several decades,
slightly. New ice was still growing in
the spring ice cover has become
some areas, but it was melting in oth-
increasingly dominated by younger
ers. Overall, the ice changes in these
and generally thinner ice, because
the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, in a
regions canceled each other out.
of strong summer melting in recent
region that used to be dominated by
years that has reduced the amount of
old ice that usually survived the sum-
ice surviving into winter.
mer melt season. A similar tongue
Late in the month, extent again increased, though not above the previously reported level of March 7. This
This year the older, thicker ice
of old ice appeared in March 2010,
late increase is due mainly to increas-
has increased somewhat over last
which almost completely melted
es of extent in the Kara, Barents, and
year, although it remains younger
away during the summer of 2010.
Greenland Seas. The Greenland Sea
than the 1979 to 2000 average ice
Whether the tongue of old ice seen
increase is likely due primarily to ice
age. Data through the third week of
this spring melts away this summer
that was exported from the Arctic
March shows an increase in sea ice
will depend largely on ocean tem-
Ocean to the Greenland Sea by winds
one to two years old, and older than
perature and the weather patterns
and ocean currents, though some ice
two years old, compared to recent
that set up over the next six months.
growth is also apparent. The increase
years. However, the amount of older
James Maslanik and colleagues re-
in the Kara and Barents Seas appears
ice remains much lower than in the
cently recalculated their entire series
primarily due to ice growth resulting
mid-1980s, and there is still almost
of ice age data based on a minimum
from unusually cold weather in the
none of the oldest ice, older than
of 15% concentration. The old version
region.
four years old, that used to dominate
used a 40% minimum. The repro-
much of the Arctic Ocean.
cessed ice age data is therefore more
Air temperatures over almost all of the Arctic Ocean were above average,
The distribution of old and young
consistent with other measures of sea
reaching 7 to 9 degrees Celsius (13 to
ice at the end of March 2011 also
ice, including NSIDC sea ice extent
16 degrees Fahrenheit) above average
looks different than the standard
data, which use a threshold of 15%.
over the Chukchi Sea. Below-average
comparison period of 1981 to 2000.
Other changes of note include
temperatures were found over
Winds and ocean currents this winter
the breaking of temperature records
Greenland, the Norwegian Sea and
resulted in an unusual tongue of
in the American west this fall, as
part of Canada which does not bode
old ice extending from north of the
well as record breaking numbers of
well for the safety department.
Canadian Arctic Archipelago into
tornadoes and wind storms earlier
NSIDC scientists provide Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis, with partial support from NASA. NSIDC courtesy J. Maslanik and C. Fowler, University of Colorado
thirst in the times to come (to even
‘defeat’ their ‘competition’. Furious
begin to hold the climate steady and
loggers against angered environmen-
save those all important glaciers,
talists, as just one example, and those
and those ever so important rivers
loggers will definately do the buffalo
and lakes which are very neccesary
thing on those forests, and the whole
sources of fresh drinkingwater)
planet will definately commit suicide
this would require reductions in
by dying of thirst by melting all
CO2 emissions of at least 60 per
those damn glaciers. They will do
cent, according to current scientific
it, because they can’t do anything
consensus. Now given how people
else. They are free marketeers, and
shot the buffalo until no buffalo were
that system does not bring out the
left, and how they hack down the old
best in people, but rather the very
growth rainforests until not a spot
worst. When you hear about ‘ethnic
is left (in British Columbia they are
cleansing’ (where one group battles
presently ruining the last habitat of
another over resources) what you are
the spotted owl and the rare barking
actually seeing is just ‘free market-
salamander), well considering all this
eering’ stripped of its veneer of so
2010 - Information
I would assume that they will just
called ‘cvilization’ (for example, the
find ‘economic reasons’ to continue
‘civilized’ way of committing acts of
average monthly arctic sea ice extent March 1979 to 2011
•
1990 - A long speriod of
•
2000 - Clean energy
•
production of industriel
is now a plan for the
from the field evidences
technology had a large
future but is difficult
that an increase in
affect on the caps.
to implement due to
temperature is reach-
doing what they are doing, and just
ethnic cleansing, would be to destroy
international dispute.
ing a critical annual
deal with that other problem of dying
your rivals business and thus capture
percentage increase.
of thirst later on when it becomes
his market share...this will of course
a more immediate and pressing
leave him and all his employees
concern...
completely ruined, but then, to the
this year (the rising global temperatures have resulted in a ten per
But then this is one of the prob-
victors go the spoils, and as to what
cent increase in global humidity
lems of having people become social-
happens to them afterwards, well
levels over the last decade due to
ized in a ‘free market economy’. This
that’s their problem). Naturally given
increases in evaporation- and water
type of fiercely competitive, dog eat
what a worthless system we live
in the atmosphere is another potent
dog, everyone for themselves, com-
under, and what it does to destroy
greenhouse gas - so as the process
pete or die Social Darwinism, while
the human soul, I think we can all
continues it also accelerates - and
it is always hyped as ‘bringing out
look forward to watching those
increased humidity causes more
the best in people’ (by throwing them
forests burn to the ground, while the
tornadoes of increasing severity).
into fierce competition with each
ice caps disappear and flood islands
Also very significant is the world
other) actually brings out the worst
and coasts, while the rivers continue
wide retreat of mountain glaciers,
in people, causes them fear for their
to disappear and people then feud
which, over time, means the end of
survival, live in fear of having the
with each other over precious water
rivers, which are fed by mountain
economic rug pulled out from under
(will they finally have to shut down
glaciers, and just how people plan to
them (at which time, they, being the
all barge traffic on the Mississipi next
get by without these rivers is a good
losers in the battle of the ‘survival of
year - this year the barges are only
question...but apparently they don’t
the economic fittest’ can then become
half full to avoid scraping bottom -
spend a lot of time thinking about it,
homeless under a bridge) well this
and the Great Lakes have dropped
and even if they did, it would require
kind of thinking causes people to
another foot - that one foot equals
drastic action to stop the process of
bust up into feuding special interest
years of glacier build up, by the way,
global warming, and thus save the
groups,filled with anger and fury,
and the glaciers are not building up,
planet from convulsing and dying of
whose only thought is to ‘battle’ and
they are shrinking...)
15 16
The Cancun Agreements on their
The tangible advances were
own are clearly not sufficient to keep
noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements
temperature increases below 2 de-
set emissions mitigation targets for some 80 countries, including all the major economies. That means that the world’s largest emitters, among them China, the United States, the European Union, India, and Brazil, have now signed up for targets and actions to reduce emissions by 2020. The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an official United Nations accord -- to keep temperature increases below a global average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). Yes, that goal is no more stringent than the one set out in Copenhagen,
grees C, but they are a valuable step but this time, the participating na-
forward in the difficult process of
tions formally accepted the goals;
constructing a sound foundation for
a year earlier, they merely “noted”
meaningful, long-term global action. The participating countries also
Other provisions establish a
Other provisions establish a
agreed -- for the first time in an offi-
“Green Climate Fund” to finance
“Green Climate Fund” to finance
cial United Nations accord -- to keep
steps to limit and adapt to climate
steps to limit and adapt to climate
temperature increases below a global
change, and designate the World
change, and designate the World
average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees
Bank as interim trustee, over the
Bank as interim trustee, over the
F). Yes, that goal is no more stringent
objections of many developing coun-
objections of many developing coun-
than the one set out in Copenhagen,
tries. And new initiatives will protect
tries. And new initiatives will protect
but this time, the participating na-
tropical forests, and find ways to
tropical forests, and find ways to
tions formally accepted the goals;
transfer clean energy technology to
transfer clean energy technology to
a year earlier, they merely “noted”
poorer countries.
poorer countries.
them, without adopting the accord.
them, without adopting the accord.
17 18
A better Dialogue
“Yes, there is hope because there are still many options open to us for moving forward. It’s up to the EU to continue leading the way. Alain Juppé is absolutely right in pointing out that there is hope for real progress at Cancun. The question is how far it will be possible to go at the Cancun summit, while understanding that fighting climate change has to be an ongoing process.”
Our expectations a year ago from the Copenhagen summit were too high. And when those expectations weren’t met, a deep cloud of scepticism was cast over the United Nations system’s ability to deliver results. Instead we have to take advantage of the progress made at Copenhagen, and at the same time avoid looking forward to Cancun as the end-point in the fight to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Legally binding agreements are obviously going to be needed, but we should also take into account the many other actions that could effectively support the fight against climate change as part of a global approach. These options include adopting a set of concrete decisions on all the pillars of the Bali Action Plan that preceded the Copenhagen Accord while also keeping the door open for a continuation of the Kyoto Protocol regime. Alain Juppé mentions finance and the reduction of emissions from deforestation (REDD+) as mechanisms that could be agreed upon at Cancun. Discussion of these is now well advanced, but we must not forget that agreement on those mechanisms will be linked to such other such topics as adaptation, mitigation, technology and measurement, verification and reporting. In other words, a balanced agreement is going to be essential.
“
There’s hope for Cancun, but EU leadership is more vital than ever Autumn 2010 Luis Alfonso De Alba
”
On mitigation, we need to think of ways to preserve the Kyoto regime while recognising that certain condi-
able and least developed ones, will suffer the most. Right now, pre-summit nego-
tions still need to be spelled out.
tiations are in a state of stagnation,
And for countries outside Kyoto, we
with many countries waiting for the
should be doing more work on devel-
others to move first. Alain Juppé
oping ad-hoc commitments as well
is therefore right, in the sense that
as voluntary actions for developing
Europe has the means to re-start real
countries.
negotiations on climate change. As
As to adaptation, some ideas have
a confidence building signal, Europe
already achieved common under-
should raise its level of ambition so
standing, and we can work further
that others will follow suit. The Euro-
on that. Technology is essential
pean Union’s member governments
for developing countries that need
could also take national measures to
to adapt to climate change, so we
increase energy efficiency and emis-
should be thinking in general terms
sions reductions. The truth is still
about setting-up a new technology
that the EU has the means to unlock
mechanism.
the stalemate and be a catalytic force
All climate change actions,
for moving forward.
whether by developed or developing countries, will need to be monitored, reported and verified – while at the same time respecting national sovereignty – so as to promote confidence. And all the elements that could form such a package should be brought together to shape the foundations for further work. The worst case scenario for Cancun is that the summit will not reach any kind of agreement at all. But all concerned, without exception, would lose if we are not able lay out the foundations for a future in which development is sustainable. And we must be in no doubt that developing countries, especially the most vulner-
19 20
fixing the p and fu
ast uture Usefully, the Cancun agreements recognise directly and explicitly two key principles.
The Kyoto Protocol, which es-
1. All countries must
sentially expires at the end of 2012,
recognize their historic
is fundamentally flawed, especially
emissions (read, the
in dividing the world into competing
industrialized world).
economic camps. At Cancun, it was encouraging to hear fewer people holding out for a
2. All countries are
commitment to another phase of the
responsible for their future
Kyoto Protocol. It was politically im-
emissions (think of those
possible to spike the idea of extend-
with fast-growing emerging
ing the Kyoto agreement entirely,
economies).
but at least it was punted to the next gathering in Durban, South Africa, a year from now. Otherwise, the Cancun meeting could have collapsed amid acrimony and recriminations.
21 22
CancĂşn, more issues to cover
Tanzanian President visits South Centre during Board meeting South Centre workshop on global economic problems and effects on South Cancun climate conference: serious implications for developing countries