AMID UKRAINE WAR, CHINA THREAT RISES By Frank Fang
MARCH 4–10, 2022 | $6.95
NO. 9
Editor’s Note
War in Ukraine dear reader, russia’s invasion of ukraine, which to date has led to thousands of deaths—including those of civilians—and an estimated 1 million refugees, wouldn't have been possible without support from Beijing. While the United States and other nations have placed sanctions on Russia, China has instead lifted restrictions and encouraged increased trade with the country. This week's cover story details this new reality of a strengthened Russia–China alliance, and what it means for U.S. national security. Amid the war in Ukraine, the United States is being forced to focus on the West, while China's threat in the East gains momentum. China's Communist Party has made no secret of the fact that it sees America as its No. 1 enemy and that its ultimate goal is to defeat it. “The revival of Cold War 1.0 (Moscow– Washington) taking oxygen majorly away from Cold War 2.0 (Beijing–Washington) is a blunder of historical proportions where the democracies are concerned,” expert Madhav Nalapat told Insight. According to Nalapat, the blame for the current situation can be laid, in part, on strategic missteps by Washington and NATO in relation to Ukraine. Now, instead of having Russia's support in countering the growing China threat, the United States has dropped itself into a weaker position, divided between major theaters and an allied Russia and China. Jasper Fakkert Editor-in-chief
2 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
JASPER FAKKERT EDITOR-IN-CHIEF CHANNALY PHILIPP LIFE & TRADITION, TRAVEL EDITOR CHRISY TRUDEAU MIND & BODY EDITOR CRYSTAL SHI HOME, FOOD EDITOR
ON THE COVER What are the larger geopolitical implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its alliance with China? REUTERS/ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO
SHARON KILARSKI ARTS & CULTURE EDITOR BILL LINDSEY LUXURY EDITOR FEI MENG & BIBA KAJEVICH ILLUSTRATORS SHANSHAN HU PRODUCTION CONTACT US THE EPOCH TIMES ASSOCIATION INC. 229 W.28TH ST., FL.7 NEW YORK, NY 10001 ADVERTISING ADVERTISENOW@EPOCHTIMES.COM SUBSCRIPTIONS, GENERAL INQUIRIES, LETTERS TO THE EDITOR HELP.THEEPOCHTIMES.COM (USPS21-800)IS PUBLISHED WEEKLY BY THE EPOCH MEDIA GROUP, 9550 FLAIR DR. SUITE 411, EL MONTE, CA 91731-2922. PERIODICAL POSTAGE PAID AT EL MONTE, CA, AND ADDITIONAL MAILING OFFICES. POSTMASTER: SEND ADDRESS CHANGES TO THE EPOCH TIMES, 229 W. 28TH STREET, FLOOR 5, NEW YORK, NY 10001.
vol. 2 | no. 9 | march 4–10, 2022
24 | Smuggling
49 | China’s Tech
28 | Progressive
50 | Moving On
Havoc High-speed chases and crashes are taking a toll on a small Texas town.
Crackdown Beijing is readying its censorship and crackdown on the metaverse.
Prosecutors Major city prosecutors are ramping up criminal charges against police officers.
How to get back on your feet after a great failure.
52 | Americans
Versus the Elite Author Walter Kirn on lockdown leaders’ approach of ‘reality is what I say it is.’
30 | Record-Low
Birth Rate CDC data show 2020’s rate of 3.61 million births was the lowest since 1980.
44 | Russia–
Ukraine Conflict The free world has underestimated the threat of postSoviet Russia.
45 | China–Russia Ties Beijing is effectively joining a Moscow pact against NATO.
46 | US Economy
Today’s inflation promises economic pain tomorrow.
Features
12 | Epidemic of Sellouts NBA players have drawn criticism for lucrative shoe deals linked to forced labor in China. 16 | Vaccine-Injured Speak Out ‘Worst experience of my life’: Early vaccine adopters suffer injuries and struggle to get proper care. 32 | A Geopolitical Test The Ukraine war has forced the United States to confront China and Russia at the same time—a challenge that could have been avoided, some say. THE LEAD
47 | The Federal Reserve
38 | Costs of Electrification The push for electrification to reach net zero means large-scale mining and dependence on China, experts say.
48 | Chinese Real Estate
A young Ukrainian man says goodbye to his loved one as he leaves by train to Ukraine, at the main railway station in Prague, Czech Republic, on March 3. Thousands of civilians have rushed to enlist in the Ukrainian army to fight against Russia's invasion of the country.
St. Louis Fed’s James Bullard says the quiet part out loud.
The crisis engulfing China’s real estate sector gets even worse.
MICHAL CIZEK/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
56 | A Villa in the Forest A sumptuous villa made for nature lovers just outside of Cannes.
58 | Maui’s Best Views Come with us as we explore Maui’s scenic North Shore.
60 | Surf the Car Net
Shop for cars locally or across the country from your couch.
63 | Adventure Time
If you need a rugged, reliable timepiece, consider these watches.
66 | Tea Time
Come explore a collection of the world's most exotic teas.
67 | Be a Great Parent
Parenting is a tough task, so we've compiled some helpful tips.
I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 3
4 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
T H G IL T O P S BATTLE OF ANTONOV AIRPORT UKRAINIAN SERVICEMEN IN THE NORTH of Kyiv on Feb. 24. Russian and Ukrainian forces are battling for control of the Hostomel airfield, also known as Antonov Airport, on the northern outskirts of Kyiv, a senior Ukrainian officer said. The strategic airport could be critical to the defense of the Ukrainian capital. PHOTO BY DANIEL LEAL/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 5
SHEN YUN SHOP
Great Culture Revived. Fine Jewelry | Italian Scarves | Home Decor
ShenYunShop.com
6 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
Tel: 1.80 0.208.2384
NAT ION • WOR L D • W H AT H A P P E N E D T H I S W E E K
The Week
No.09
A display set up in the NBA flagship retail store in Beijing on Oct. 9, 2019. PHOTO BY KEVIN FRAYER/GETTY IMAGES
Epidemic of Sellouts The Vaccine-Injured Speak Out
Progressive Prosecutors Ramp Up Police Charges
Early vaccine adopters suffer injuries and struggle to get proper care. 16
District attorneys in major cities are securing dozens of criminal indictments against police officers. 28
12 The Costs of Electrification The push for electrification to reach net zero means largescale mining and dependence on China, experts say. 38
INSIDE I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 7
The Week in Short US
t y l a e r s i t a h T“ er w ,t caf ni , y eht f i gnit is eht no gniy ps ” .t nediserp
30
MILLION
— House Judiciary Committee ranking member Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), on special counsel Attorney John Durham’s latest filing
“If there was ever a time to be energy independent, it is now.” — Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.)
A cargo ship carrying about 4,000 cars that caught fire near the Azores while en route to the United States from Germany has sunk into the Atlantic Ocean, officials confirmed.
140
MILLION Some 140 million Americans have had COVID-19, meaning that 43 percent of the population could have strong and long-lasting protection against it, according to CDC.
$106
PER BARREL The cost of oil has surpassed $106 per barrel in the United States, setting the price of gas at a seven-year high and altogether constituting an over 10 percent rise in the cost of fuel.
59 OFFICERS—The number of Chicago police officers recommended for termination
over civilian complaints jumped threefold, from 19 in 2020 to 59 in 2021, according to a new report by the Civilian Office of Police Accountability. 8 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
THIS PAGE FROM TOP: KEVIN DIETSCH/GETTY IMAGES, KEVIN DIETSCH/GETTY IMAGES; RIGHT PAGE: WIN MCNAMEE/GETTY IMAGES
4,000 CARS
President Joe Biden has authorized the Department of Energy to release 30 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, representing half of a coordinated 60-millionbarrel release from International Energy Agency member states.
The Week in Short US SUPREME COURT
Biden SCOTUS Nominee Hearings Will Begin March 21: Durbin C OM MIT T E E H E A R ING S FOR
Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell testifies about monetary policy and the state of the economy before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington on March 2. ECONOMY
Fed’s Powell Tees Up Rate Hike in March FEDER A L R E SERV E CH AIR J EROME POW ELL told lawmakers that the
central bank is on track to raise interest rates at its next policy meeting in two weeks, with the Fed chief citing high inflation, robust growth, and an “extremely tight” labor market, while noting that the war in Ukraine was injecting high uncertainty into the economic outlook. Powell made the remarks in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on the occasion of the release of the semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, which noted that recent geopolitical tensions related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were a “source of uncertainty” in commodity and financial markets. Asked about his expectations for the path of monetary policy for the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s rate-setting body, Powell affirmed plans for a rate hike while acknowledging an elevated level of uncertainty due to Russia’s Ukraine offensive. TEST KITS
FDA Warns of Possible False Results From Some COVID-19 Tests THE U.S. FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTR ATION (FDA) said that three rapid
COVID-19 tests should not be used because of the potential for producing false results. The FDA told people to stop using the Celltrion DiaTrust COVID-19 Ag Rapid Test, the SD Biosensor Inc. STANDARD Q COVID-19 Ag Home Test, and the Flowflex SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Test (Self-Testing). “The FDA is concerned about the risk of false results when using” those tests, according to the agency. These tests have “not been authorized, cleared or approved by the FDA for distribution or use in the United States,” the agency added. All three tests work via nasal swab, the agency said. It recommended that health care providers have patients submit to new testing if they’ve used any of the three tests fewer than two weeks ago.
President Joe Biden’s Supreme Court (SCOTUS) nominee, Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, will begin on March 21 and last four days according to Senate Judiciary Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). If confirmed, Jackson will replace outgoing Justice Stephen Breyer who at the end of February acceded to pressure from Democrats and liberals to retire while Democrats hold the White House. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that Biden would stand by his 2020 campaign promise to nominate a black woman to SCOTUS; though several women have sat on the panel, a black woman has not. Several conservatives have decried the move, which they have said puts a nominee’s race and sex ahead of their qualifications for the job. FLORIDA
Florida Wants Students to Take Financial Literacy Course FLORIDA LAWMAK ER S unani-
mously approved a bill that would require high school students to take and pass a financial literacy course before graduating. House Bill 1115 would add the course requirement starting as early as the 2022–2023 school year. It could become a condition for getting their diplomas. The Florida financial literacy course would include instruction on types of bank accounts and their differences, how to open and manage them, how to complete loan applications, and how to complete federal income taxes. I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 9
The Week in Short World OIL
Operator of Nord Stream 2 Fires All Employees After US Sanctions THE OPERATOR OF the Nord
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attends a news conference in Moscow on Feb. 21. RUSSIA–UKRAINE
Russian Foreign Minister Warns World War III ‘Will Be Nuclear’ RUSSIAN FORCES on March 4 seized the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant—Eu-
HONG KONG
International Lawmakers Call for the Release of 47 Hong Kong Activists A COALITION OF international lawmak-
ers is calling for the immediate release of A poster showing some of the 47 pro47 Hong Kong pro-democracy activists democracy activists in Hong Kong charged arrested by the city’s national security with conspiracy to commit subversion. police a year ago. “The arrests demonstrated beyond any doubt the Chinese government’s intent to use the National Security Law to wipe out all forms of political opposition in Hong Kong,” the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China said in a Feb. 28 statement. The group was among the 53 pro-democracy activists, former lawmakers, and politicians whose arrests on Jan. 6, 2021, drew international condemnations. The mass arrests followed their participation in unofficial primary polls in June 2020, aimed at selecting legislature candidates for a since-postponed city election. The informal poll that drew more than 600,000 votes was later declared illegal by the communist regime in Beijing. Hong Kong police charged the 47 with conspiracy to commit subversion under the city’s national security law last February. 10 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
COVID-19
Pfizer’s COVID-19 Vaccine Goes Into Liver Cells and Is Converted to DNA: Study THE MESSENGER R NA from
Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine is able to enter human liver cells and is converted into DNA, according to Swedish researchers at Lund University. The researchers found that the mRNA vaccine triggers the cell’s DNA, which is inside the nucleus, to increase the production of the LINE-1 gene expression to make mRNA. This, in turn, translates into a protein that eventually attaches back to the vaccine’s mRNA and reverse transcribes into spike DNA. The whole process occurs rapidly, within six hours. The vaccine’s mRNA converting into DNA and being found inside the cell’s nucleus is something that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention previously said would not happen.
THIS PAGE FROM TOP: RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS, ANTHONY KWAN/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES; RIGHT PAGE FROM TOP: MIGUEL RIOPA/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES, CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES, PHILIP FONG/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES, DAN PELED/GETTY IMAGES
rope’s largest nuclear power station—in southeastern Ukraine. “The third world war will be nuclear and destructive. ... President Biden is an experienced man and has previously stated that the only alternative to war are sanctions,” Lavrov said in an interview with Al Jazeera’s Arabic channel, without elaborating. Lavrov also alleged that Russia would be in “real danger” if Ukraine ever acquired nuclear weapons. There is no evidence that Ukraine was attempting to acquire nuclear weapons from the West, and Ukraine gave up its nukes in the early 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russian forces on March 4 seized the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant—Europe’s largest nuclear power station—in southeastern Ukraine.
Stream 2 gas pipeline has terminated all contracts with employees after it was hit with U.S. sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The project represents an $11 billion investment from Russia and is designed to carry 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia to Germany every year. The United States sanctioned Nord Stream 2 AG after Russia recognized two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine prior to its invasion of the country, which has since prompted a wave of economic sanctions by the West.
World in Photos
World in Photos
1.
1. A reveler sits in a bathtub filled with mud during the Farrapada—the battle of muddy rags—during the traditional carnival of Laza, Spain, on Feb. 28. 2. The Riviere des Galets flowing down from the Circus of Mafate on the French Indian Ocean island of La Reunion, as seen from the heights of Saint-Paul, on Feb. 27. 3. Staff members from the Hoshinoya Tokyo hotel demonstrate the “Lantern Dining Experience,” in which lanterns are used to shroud diners for mask-free dining amid the pandemic, in Tokyo on Feb. 28. 4. People take to the floodwater in their boat in Logan, Australia, on Feb. 27. Several towns were under evacuation orders. 2.
3.
4. I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 11
SPONSORSHIP DEALS
EPIDEMIC OF
SELLOUTS NBA players criticized for shoe deals linked to forced labor in China By Eva Fu
12 I N S I G H T Feb. 25–March 3, 2022
China Labor
IF YOU DON’T STAND FOR SOMETHING, YOU’LL FALL FOR ANYTHING,” WROTE RETIRED NBA PL AYER DW YANE WADE
People walk past the National Basketball Association store in Beijing on Oct. 9, 2019. Eighteen NBA players currently hold endorsement deals with one of four major Chinese sports apparel companies that have murky ties to forced labor. PHOTO BY GREG BAKER/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
on Twitter in June 2020. The tweet, coming out amid mass protests over the death of George Floyd, pictured the basketball player holding a pair of black shoes with the slogan painted over in capital letters: “enough is enough.” The account that posted the message was Wade’s sneaker brand “Way of Wade,” which is owned by Li-Ning, a Chinese sports brand that has come under scrutiny for endorsing Beijing’s handling of Muslim minorities in Xinjiang, where the regime has waged a repressive campaign against Uyghurs that the United States has described as a genocide. Aside from Wade, at least 17 players with the NBA currently hold endorsement deals with one of four major Chinese sports apparel companies that have murky ties to forced labor in the region, according to ESPN. When the United States and allies collectively imposed sanctions over Xinjiang last March, LiNing and the other sports apparel firms—Anta, Peak, and 361 Degrees—fiercely pushed back, reiterating their support for Xinjiang cotton, a commodity that researchers say is likely tainted with Uyghur forced labor. The region supplies about 20 percent of the world’s cotton. Concerns about Beijing’s treatment of Uyghurs prompted a U.S. decision to stage a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Winter Olympics. In December, the United States also became the first country to pass a law banning all imports from the region over forced labor concerns. For the Chinese brands, the show of loyalty nonetheless produced tangible results. Li-Ning’s shares surged after some nationalist fans found that the brand had for some time been explicitly highlighting the Xinjiang cotton origin on its product labels. In 2012, Wade signed a 10-year contract to represent Li-Ning that was to bring him $10 million a year, producing a sub-brand “Way of Wade.” In 2018, he converted the agreement to a lifetime deal before his final NBA season. The player hasn’t made public statements on China’s human rights concerns. Since the mid-2000s, more than 50 NBA players have become endorsers of Chinese brands I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 13
China Labor
NBA player Dwyane Wade (L) signs his name on a fan's basketball shoes during a promotional event for Chinese sports brand Li Ning, in Beijing on July 3, 2013.
to cash in on the sport’s huge popularity in China, according to ESPN. The latest to join them was Washington Wizards guard Spencer Dinwiddie, who in January signed a multi-year shoe deal to be the ambassador for 361 Degrees.
Double Standards
14 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
Since the mid-2000s, more than 50 NBA players have become endorsers for Chinese brands, cashing in on the sport’s huge popularity in China. “Many look to these athletes as role models—it’s time for them to stand up for what is right,” he told Insight. “They have the power and platform to speak out—no endorsement or amount of money is worth keeping silent.”
Yet silence is the path chosen by most in the NBA, according to Enes Kanter Freedom, the former Boston Celtics center who has taken a strong stance against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), lambasting the regime for its abuses in Tibet, Xinjiang, and its forced organ harvesting of prisoners of conscience. Freedom said his colleagues were “too scared to say anything” on China due to their commercial interests there. “They know what’s going on, they know all the abuses done by CCP, but just because ... they had these big endorsement deals or they have a lot of jersey sales or shoe sales in China, they are telling me they have to remain silent but they are supportive of me and praying for me,” he told a think tank forum in late January. In 2019, several NBA stars criticized then-Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey after he posted a tweet in support of Hong Kong pro-democracy protesters. While the tweet was soon deleted, it drew the wrath of Beijing, leading to all Chinese sponsors walking out of partnership deals with the league. The league quickly went into damage
FROM L: FENG LI/GETTY IMAGES, OMAR RAWLINGS/GETTY IMAGES, MADDIE MEYER/GETTY IMAGES, KEVIN C. COX/GETTY IMAGES
The NBA and its players have faced criticism for employing double standards by championing social justice causes domestically while remaining silent on issues relating to China. “Far too many members of America’s corporate and social elite are willing to repeat woke talking points while making money off of others’ enslavement. This is a disgusting double standard,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who sponsored the recently enacted Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, told Insight in an email. Rubio hopes the law “will help put an end to this hypocrisy and force those doing business in our nation to remove any trace of Uyghur slave labor from their supply chains.” Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), who had called for the 2022 Winter Olympics to
be relocated from Beijing, urged athletes to “stop any endorsement with companies who support or remain silent to the egregious human rights abuses by the Chinese Communist Party towards ethnic and religious groups such as the Uyghurs.”
China Labor
(Right) Enes Kanter Freedom is the only player in the NBA who has taken a strong stance against the Chinese Communist Party. (Far top right) Freedom, then a player for the Boston Celtics, wears shoes with “Free Uyghur” written on them during a game. (Far bottom right) Freedom wears shoes with “Save Uyghur” written on them during another game.
control and issued an apology, saying it was “regrettable” to see the fans in China offended. While its English statement said “the values of the league support individuals’ educating themselves and sharing their views on matters important to them,” it also gave a more placating version on Chinese social media, saying the league was “extremely disappointed” by the tweet, which “seriously hurt the feelings of Chinese sports fans.” However, the league’s commissioner, Adam Silver, insisted that there were no discrepancies in the two statements and pointed to the English one as the official version. Silver also recently defended the league and its players, telling ESPN that their “track record of leadership in social justice speaks for itself,” which the NBA cited in a response to Insight. “I don’t believe it’s hypocritical that the league and players focus their attention on issues that are closest to home and impact our own communities,” Silver said in the statement, adding that the players’ partnership choices aren’t subject to NBA approval.
Agents for Wade and Dinwiddie didn’t respond to a request by Insight for comment about their endorsements.
‘Epidemic of Sellouts’ In January, Golden State Warriors co-owner Chamath Palihapitiya also sparked outrage for saying “nobody cares about what’s happening to the Uyghurs.” While he said he cares about climate change and Black Lives Matter, the issue about Uyghurs—whom he described as “a segment of a class of people in another country”—is “below my line,” he said during a podcast. The unexpected outpouring of anger, though, forced him to recant the statement hours later. “I think there’s an epidemic of sellouts,” former NBA player Royce White told Insight. “The corporatism and materialism of the West has rubbed off on its athletes, and many of them see economic opportunity as independent from social responsibility. It’s wrong, it’s corrupt, and it’s dangerous.” Freedom is currently without a team after being released by the Houston Rockets last month following a trade
with the Boston Celtics. He believes his activism against the CCP may have cost him his career. “To be honest, it is a lonely road—I’m talking about in a sports world,” he said on Feb. 17 at an awards ceremony in Washington to recognize his advocacy. “You can talk about all the social justice, all the injustices happening all around the world. But when it comes to China, you cannot speak up. If you do, then you’d have to face the consequences,” he said. He also said he was subject to a two-week media ban following the Hong Kong tweet storm in 2019. “We continue to support Enes Kanter Freedom expressing his views on matters that are important to him, as we do for all members of the NBA family,” league spokesman Mike Bass was quoted as saying. Despite his effective ouster from the NBA, Freedom nonetheless added that he has “no regrets.” After learning about the abuses, “If I didn’t speak up about all these issues that are happening over there, I wouldn’t be able to go to sleep, you know?” I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 15
COVID-19 RESPONSE
T H E VA C C I N E- I N J
SPEAK O ‘Worst experience of my life’: Early vaccine adopters suffer injuries, struggle to get proper care BY Z AC H A RY S T IE B E R , JA N JE K IE L E K , & ME IL IN G L E E
16 I N S I G H T Feb. 25–March 3, 2022
URED
UT (L–R) Maddie de Garay, Stephanie de Garay, and Brianne Dressen during an interview with The Epoch Times in Washington on Jan. 22. PHOTO BY BAO QIU/THE EPOCH TIMES
I N S I G H T Feb. 25–March 3, 2022 17
In Focus Health
D
18 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
“My back hurt, my stomach hurt, my head hurt. I had a fever of like 101-something. My toes were numb, and they were ice cold and they were white, and same for my fingertips.” Maddie de Garay, vaccine recipient
teacher who lives in Saratoga Springs, Utah, told Insight. “It was the worst experience of my life.”
Pain Reactions to COVID-19 vaccines often happen soon after administration—one of the reasons health care providers are told to monitor patients for at least 15 minutes after a dose is given. For most recipients, problems are small, like a headache, and soon go away. For others, the pain has still not subsided. “Right now, all I do is work. That’s all I can do,” Erin Sullivan, a speech pathologist in Connecticut who received Moderna’s shot on Jan. 6, 2021, told Insight. “Everyone around me, like family, are doing everything else. I’m not cooking, I’m not cleaning, I’m not doing laundry. I’m not taking the kids anywhere. I basically work and then I go to bed.” Sullivan, who later got a second dose of
Maddie de Garay, 12, in her backyard in Milford, Ohio, in October 2020, four months before she had an adverse reaction to the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine.
Pfizer’s vaccine on the recommendation of an immunologist, has suffered from tingling in her limbs, severe fatigue, and other symptoms for over a year. Sullivan was diagnosed with an adverse reaction to the vaccine, according to medical records reviewed by Insight. She “never had similar symptoms prior to COVID-19 vaccination,” one doctor wrote. Dressen has dealt with incontinence, limb weakness, and nausea, among other symptoms. “My reaction started within an hour. Ended up with pins and needles down my arm, had double vision that night, sensitivity that night. And over the next 2 1/2 weeks, my symptoms progressed to the point where I had extreme tachycardia, blood pressure fluctuations, temperature fluctuations. My sound sensitivity and light sensitivity became so severe I had to be confined to my bedroom 24/7,” Dressen said. Dressen was diagnosed by a doctor at
FROM L: COURTESY OF MADDIE DE GARAY, COURTESY OF BRIANNE DRESSEN
R. DANICE HERTZ remembers vividly the day she got a COVID-19 vaccine. Hertz, a retired gastroenterologist, received Pfizer’s shot on Dec. 23, 2020, less than two weeks after U.S. regulators granted it emergency use authorization. Thirty minutes went by before an adverse reaction started. “My face started burning and tingling, and my eyes got blurry,” Hertz told Insight. She also felt faint. Her husband called paramedics, who came and found Hertz’s blood pressure sky-high. They recommended she call a doctor. Hertz became so sick she feared she would die. She experienced symptoms including severe facial pain, chest constriction, tremors, twitching limbs, and tinnitus. “I felt like someone was pouring acid on me,” Hertz, of Los Angeles, said. Hertz survived but still suffers. She has been to numerous specialists. Multiple experts found indications that the vaccine triggered the reaction, according to medical records reviewed by Insight. She is one of millions of Americans who chose to get one of the COVID-19 vaccines soon after the government cleared them. Since then, hundreds of millions of doses have been administered. Many recipients have felt fine, if less protected than they were initially promised. But a growing number have endured severe reactions and have struggled to obtain treatments for their ailments. Brianne Dressen suffered so badly after getting AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine on Nov. 4, 2020, that she would often sit in silence in a room in complete darkness. “My little girl, she sings all the time. And I couldn’t have her around me at all because sound was so unbearable. And my little boy, my skin was sensitive, so anything that touched my skin was painful, so my little boy, he’d come and try to comfort me and hold my hand, and even that was painful. My teeth were too sensitive; I couldn’t brush my teeth. So it’s like all of my sensory facets just overloaded,” Dressen, a preschool
In Focus Health
this story declined to speak to Insight, didn’t respond to inquiries, or couldn’t be reached. Many of the vaccine-injured experience improvement at one time or another, but some who spoke to Insight described regular relapses. Hertz reported an improvement in late 2021, which she attributed primarily to time passing since receiving the vaccine. “Unfortunately, I have taken a turn for the worse, a month or two ago,” she told Insight via email on Feb. 17. Hertz was diagnosed with “presumed post COVID reaction” in early 2021, according to medical records. After visiting other specialists, she eventually received a diagnosis of mast cell activation syndrome triggered by the vaccine. Symptoms of the syndrome include trouble breathing and low blood pressure.
(Above) Brianne Dressen with her husband, Brian, and their children in Washington, before she was vaccinated. (Right) Dressen is hospitalized for vaccine side effects at the National Institutes of Health hospital in June 2021.
the National Institutes of Health (NIH) with post-vaccine neuropathy, or nerve damage, according to medical records reviewed by Insight. Dressen was showing “persistent neurological symptoms following SARS-CoV-2 vaccine,” one note penned by an NIH doctor said. SARSCoV-2 is another name for the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, which causes COVID-19. Maddie de Garay’s life was thrown into turmoil after she received her second Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine on Jan. 20, 2021. The litany of issues included paresthesia, back pain, and abdominal pain. “My back hurt, my stomach hurt, my head hurt. I had a fever of like 101-something,” Maddie, 13, told Insight. “My toes were numb, and they were ice cold and they were white, and same for my fingertips.” The girl’s symptoms have persisted. She uses a wheelchair because it’s become impossible to walk. She’s lost feel-
“My skin was sensitive, so anything that touched my skin was painful, so my little boy, he’d come and the First try to comfort Among Dressen and Maddie both participated in clinical trials. Like them, other me and hold my vaccine vaccine-injured were among the first to shots. hand, and even getOnoneDec.of11,the2020, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted emergenthat was painful.” cy use authorization to the vaccine from Brianne Dressen, vaccine recipient
ing in the lower half of her body. Other parts often aggrieve her. The day after her vaccination, during a visit to Cincinnati Children’s Hospital, one of the Pfizer trial sites, Maddie was diagnosed with “adverse effect of vaccine,” according to medical records reviewed by Insight. The following month, another doctor wrote that Maddie was suffering from “many prolonged and significant post COVID vaccine symptoms.” But references to the vaccine began to disappear in later visits, and Dr. Robert Frenck, the principal investigator for Pfizer’s trials at the hospital, told Maddie’s parents in a phone call in May 2021 that “the doctors that have seen her so far have not found something where they thought it was research-related, is what they all were telling me.” “One of the first ones says it was related to the vaccine trial,” Patrick de Garay, Maddie’s father, responded. All the doctors who treated patients in
Pfizer and BioNTech. A week later, the agency cleared Moderna’s jab. The authorization letters acknowledged the vaccines were “investigational” but said reviews of clinical trials identified no safety concerns and pointed to it being “reasonable to believe” that the vaccines “may be effective” to prevent infection from the virus that causes COVID-19. Hope soared that the vaccines would be the tool to crush the CCP virus. Herd immunity was the goal, with vaccine-conferred immunity the primary piece, according to top U.S. officials such as Dr. Anthony Fauci. Early adopters thought getting vaccinated would contribute to ending the COVID-19 pandemic. Many had family members who, due to underlying medical conditions or age, were among the most vulnerable to COVID-19. Some were high-risk themselves. “I had lost really close loved ones to COVID, and this was my saving grace to help contribute to ending this pandemic,” Angelia Desselle told Insight. Desselle received Pfizer’s vaccine I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 19
In Focus Health
20 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
“Right now, all I do is work. That’s all I can do. Everyone around me, like family, are doing everything else.” Erin Sullivan, speech pathologist son, and Moderna didn’t respond to requests for comment for this article. Some government researchers have suggested in emails reviewed by Insight, that they think vaccines caused the side effects, in addition to the diagnosis of Dressen by NIH doctors. A spokesperson for the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, part of the NIH, told Insight via email that data from a study that featured NIH scientists examining some of the people with problems following vaccination yielded “no data showing the vaccines caused the symptoms in these patients.” Government reviews of surveillance systems have identified health problems “potentially associated” with the COVID-19 vaccines, including the neurological disorder called Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), an FDA spokeswoman told Insight in an email. “Decisions on whether there is some basis to believe there is a causal relationship are a matter of medical and scientific judgment and are based on factors such as the frequency of reporting, biological plausibility, the timing of the event relative to the time of vaccination, and whether the adverse event is known to be caused by related vaccines,” she said. A spokeswoman for the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) told Insight in an email, “To date, CDC has detected no unusual or unexpected patterns of miscarriages, cancer, or neurological conditions following immunization that would indicate COVID-19 vaccines are causing or contributing to these conditions. CDC continues to recommend that everyone who is eligible should get vaccinated.” Later, the spokeswoman said she forgot about GBS. Based on data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a U.S. passive reporting system, the rate of GBS was found within the 21 days following Johnson & Johnson vaccination to be 21 times higher than among Pfizer or Moderna recipients. Analysis of the data “found no increased risk of GBS after Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna,” she said. As of Feb. 11, more reports of GBS had been made to VAERS following
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on Jan. 5, 2021. As manager of an outpatient surgery center in Louisiana, she stayed on top of updates regarding the vaccines, including declarations by health authorities that they were both safe and effective. She trusted them. She went to get vaccinated during her lunch break. Other people who got the vaccine early also put their faith in the U.S. government, vaccine makers, and the health care community. Hertz, a longtime doctor, jumped on an early opportunity to get vaccinated. Though she had recently retired, she thought she might need to go back to work in the future. And, she says, she “completely trusted our system and believed the FDA was honest and decent.” Andrea Rositas was in a medical program when she got Moderna’s vaccine on Jan. 31, 2021, at Southwestern College, a community college in Chula Vista, California. Nurses ahead of her in the program said Rositas should get vaccinated. They said it was safe. Stephanie de Garay told Insight that she believed that if anything went wrong, trial participants would “be in the best hands.” “If you’re going to have anything happen, the best time would be in a trial, because they would do everything they could to get you better, and to figure out why. Because that’s the whole point of a trial,” she said. “That’s not what happened.” Dressen said she enrolled in the AstraZeneca trial because “I trusted what the doctors said, and I wanted this pandemic to be over.” “And the way that it was presented to the world was, ‘This vaccine’s going to end the pandemic.’ I mean, my kids are stuck at home, they can’t leave, we’re wearing masks. I work in a school. I see how it’s affecting elementary-aged kids,” she said. “I trusted the government and I trusted the doctors. I don’t anymore.” The vaccine-injured have repeatedly contacted federal officials and the vaccine companies about their afflictions. They feel that neither the government nor the companies have done enough to address vaccine injuries. AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Johnson & John-
In Focus Health
A digital highway sign promotes COVID-19 vaccination in Vancouver, Wash., on May 14, 2021.
“My face started burning and tingling, and my eyes got blurry. ... I felt like someone was pouring acid on me.” Dr. Danice Hertz, retired gastroenterologist Moderna or Pfizer vaccination than Johnson & Johnson vaccination, an Epoch Times review found. At the same time, many more shots of the former vaccines have been administered in the United States.
The Struggle
With hundreds of millions of doses administered, many recipients have felt fine, but a growing number have endured severe reactions and have struggled to obtain treatment for their injuries.
Initial visits to doctors often yielded little but frustration. Doctors found it difficult to ascertain the conditions and their causes. Many diagnosed patients with anxiety. Rositas says she was told by the CDC after a review of her records that she suffered from an adverse reaction. She showed the update to several doctors. They’d tell her, “Oh, it’s just anxiety,” she recalled. She said that hurt, especially because that’s the same thing a nurse told her right after the reaction. Eventually, Rositas was diagnosed with a reaction to Moderna’s vaccine, according to a letter from Sharp Health Care reviewed by Insight. Maddie recalled one doctor who entered her room and told her, “You are 13. You should not be crying and freaking out over this. You have anxiety, and this is all anxiety, and you need to stop hyperventilating or else we’re going to shove a tube down your throat and put you on a ventilator.” I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 21
In Focus Health
80
PERCENT OF REACT19 MEMBERS were diagnosed with anxiety during early COVID-19 vaccination reaction examinations. “They assume that it’s just anxiety, so they pump her with medicine, which makes her sicker,” Stephanie de Garay said. A survey of Dressen’s group, REACT19, conducted among its members found that over 80 percent said they were diagnosed during early examinations with anxiety. “My anxiety diagnosis plagued me clearly until I went to the NIH,” or about seven months, Dressen said. Dressen has become a leading advocate for people experiencing problems after getting vaccinated, becoming increasingly knowledgeable about the matter. She’s even had some doctors refer patients to her. In exchanges with Dr. Janet Woodcock, a top official at the FDA, Dressen has outlined what she sees as issues with the vaccine clinical trials and the vaccine injuries. “I’ve told her about the fact that I am
a preschool teacher [and] I’m not qualified as a medical professional whatsoever. But I have Ivy League physicians referring sick vaccine-injured patients to me for medical care,” Dressen said at a recent panel hearing in Washington. “If that in itself doesn’t tell Janet Woodcock that the system is broken, I don’t know what will.” Sullivan also had fruitless consultations. In one case, she went to see a rheumatologist while displaying classic symptoms of mast cell activation syndrome—the same issue that she and Hertz, among others, have since been diagnosed with. “He didn’t look into it at all. He held my hands and told me I should do yoga,” Sullivan said.
Growing Interest Establishing definitive links between vaccines and post-vaccination conditions can be difficult, but more researchers have become interested in investigating confirmed or suspected vaccine injuries. The number of injury reports has grown over time, along with vaccinations overall. Some 943,000 reports of nervous system disorders following COVID-19 vaccination were reported to VAERS, through Feb. 4, according to a search done through the MedAlert engine. The disorders, as classified by the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory
Mechanisms Experts, though, still aren’t sure about the mechanisms that cause the conditions. One cause could be excessive production of spike proteins from the vaccines in the spleen. The protein gets released in exosomes—tiny nanoparticles produced and released by cells that mediate cell to cell communication by
Medical staff workers prepare syringes with doses of COVID-19 vaccine while working behind beer taps at Fenway Park in Boston on Jan. 29, 2021. 22 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
FROM L: JOSEPH PREZIOSO/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES, MARIO TAMA/GETTY IMAGES
Activities, include infections such as meningitis and brain injuries such as Bell’s palsy. Bell’s palsy and GBS were detected at elevated rates in recipients of the AstraZeneca vaccine, researchers in the United Kingdom analyzing English vaccination records found in 2021. They also said the data pointed to Pfizer recipients having a heightened risk of stroke. A different set of researchers, analyzing U.S. data, found an elevated risk of GBS for Johnson & Johnson recipients. GBS, a rare neurological disorder, has been detected in some Americans who received Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine and began to be listed on fact sheets for the vaccine in July 2021. “A wide spectrum of serious neurological complications has been reported following COVID-19 vaccination,” one review of studies on the topic stated. A number of case reports have been reported in journals, including a series focusing on four post-vaccination events that researchers described as “likely due to the vaccines.” Similar to many scientists, the researchers were hesitant to say they were definitely associated. “Establishing causal links on a population level requires large epidemiological studies and cannot be done on individual case reports alone,” they wrote. That view isn’t universal. “COVID vaccines cause neurological side effects,” Dr. Josef Finsterer, a neurologist at Klinik Landstrasse in Austria who conducted a review of studies detailing post-vaccination neurological events, told Insight in an email.
In Focus Health
943,000
REPORTS OF NERVOUS SYSTEM disorders following COVID-19 vaccination were reported to VAERS, through Feb. 4. transferring genetic materials to other cells—causing inflammation of nerves in the brain, according to Stephanie Seneff, a senior research scientist at MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory. In this scenario, the spike proteins are toxic, as they act as prion-like proteins, which become abnormal as a result of misfolding and typically lead to neurodegenerative disorders. “The immune cells that are in the spleen make spike protein because they can’t stop doing it, release them into exosomes, and then those exosomes ... go up to the brain. They go up to the brain and they infect all these nerves in the brain ... causing all of those symptoms that are manifesting,” said Seneff, whose paper reviewing possible consequences of the vaccines was published in 2021. She worries about both short-term and longterm side effects. Finsterer said molecular mimicry, or a vaccine targeting not just the virus but the recipient’s molecular pattern, could be the cause of GBS. Blood clots in the brain’s venous sinuses, one of the more common neurological side effects, may stem from the same processes unfolding as after COVID-19 infection, he proposed. Dr. William Murphy, an immunology researcher at the University of California–Davis, floated anti-idiotype antibodies—an antibody that binds to another antibody—as a cause of both lingering problems after COVID-19 infection and post-vaccination issues. Murphy drew on Neils Jerne’s network theory, which states that antibodies can not only bind to an antigen (such as a virus or a spike protein), but also attach to other antibodies to elicit the production of anti-antibodies that may result in adverse effects.
When the immune system activates the antibody response to an antigen, that specific response induces “downstream antibody responses” producing anti-idiotype antibodies. These secondary antibodies become a problem when their antigen-binding region “resembles that of the original antigens themselves.” “However, as a result of this mimicry, Ab2 [anti-idiotype] antibodies also have the potential to bind the same receptor that the original antigen was targeting. Ab2 antibodies binding to the original receptor on normal cells therefore have the potential to mediate profound effects on the cell that could result in pathologic changes, particularly in the
A sign is posted encouraging people to get vaccinated at a COVID-19 vaccine clinic in Los Angeles on March 25, 2021.
long term—long after the original antigen itself has disappeared,” Murphy wrote in a recent article. Murphy told Insight via email that research into post-vaccination effects “may indeed give insights on long COVID as they may be by the same or similar mechanisms, and if we understand the immunology underlying these effects we can then figure out ways to possibly treat and also prevent by altering vaccine strategies.” I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 23
Nation Border Security
Law enforcement and emergency personnel aid the driver and passenger of a truck that rolled and hit a house during a high-speed chase in Brackettville, Texas, on Feb. 18.
ON THE BORDER
Border Town Is a Smuggling Superhighway
High-speed chases and smuggling crashes taking a toll on a small Texas town
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By Charlotte Cuthbertson rackettville, texas—katherine vasquez is thanking her lucky stars. Almost home after a morning walk with her dog, she heard a vehicle moving way too fast for the 30 mph speed limit. A quarter-mile away, an SUV was bearing down on her location so fast she barely had time to run across the road toward her house, frantically calling her dog to follow. The residential streets of Brackettville, a two-traffic-light town, are a mix of sealed and dirt roads that are more pitted and pockmarked than the average New York taxi driver is used to. Driving fast on them is ill-advised. “I didn’t know where to run,” Vasquez told Insight. “I guess he didn’t know what he was going to do either. I
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don’t know if he was trying to avoid me. And then he took that left, and once he took a left, he rolled twice and then hit the [housing] unit.” The Chevy Tahoe gouged deep tracks into the hard-packed Texas dirt as the driver failed to make a 90-degree turn during the high-speed chase with Texas state troopers. The driver suffered severe head trauma, and his passenger had a bone sticking six inches out of his leg. Each required a helicopter flight to a San Antonio hospital, costing around $40,000 each. The accident was the latest in the all-too-frequent border-related smuggling incidents that have befallen Brackettville, a town of around 1,700 residents, give or take some winter Texans. The town sits about 30 miles from the U.S.–Mexico border and is the county seat for Kinney County. Much of the smuggling traffic involves illegal aliens who have crossed into Eagle Pass or Del Rio, Texas, have avoided law enforcement, and are being transported to Houston or San Antonio. The residents of Brackettville are used to seeing a constant presence of troopers and deputies on the roads, and it’s common to hear sirens as they pull over suspected smugglers. But the high-speed chases that enter the town are what worry the sheriff most. The chase on Feb. 18 was a 17-minute pursuit that started miles away on a rural county road that’s known to be a popular smuggling route. Speeds reached beyond 100 mph, the sheriff estimates. “The road where he wrecked, that road leads straight into the school gym,” Kinney County Sheriff Brad Coe said. “If he’d kept
Nation Border Security
FROM L: COURTESY OF KINNEY COUNTY SHERIFF’S OFFICE, CHARLOTTE CUTHBERTSON/THE EPOCH TIMES
Roman Rosas and Lyna Salazar with their children, Adalynn and Joshuaa, stand outside their home, which was hit by a truck during a high-speed chase, in Brackettville, Texas. going straight, he would have gone right into the school zone. “He could have hurt or killed any number of the local residents.” In February 2021, “when things were peaceful and quiet,” Coe said his deputies arrested eight smugglers transporting illegal aliens. This February, as of the 18th, 26 smugglers had been arrested. That’s just the sheriff’s office, which has two full-time deputies and one or two deputies from Galveston. The beefed-up numbers of troopers from the Texas Department of Public Safety are the main force in arresting smugglers. Since Oct. 1, 2021, all law enforcement in Kinney County combined have arrested almost 300 smugglers. The most recent crash was the latest in a string of high-speed chases that have ended badly for the vehicle occupants. One of the more horrific ones occurred on Feb. 1, when a driver plowed through a ranch fence while trying to evade law enforcement. The vehicle, which was carrying at least five illegal immigrants, rolled. One occupant is now a quadriplegic and another a paraplegic. Each such crash strains the county’s emergency resources while endangering lives. “Here’s the question. He’s coming into town. I’ve got 1,700 people here in town,” Coe said. “Do I try to shoot the tires out? Take the chance of the vehicle rolling and killing the people inside the vehicle? Or do I try to keep it from coming into town? Or do I let it pass through town and run the risk of killing somebody?” He said he had road spikes ready to deploy on Feb. 18, but the truck was traveling so fast, it passed him before he had the chance.
“It’s very concerning ... not knowing when you're going to have a pursuit come down and if the kids are going to be at recess or walking back and forth between classes.” Mark Perez, member, Brackettville school board
“So it’s one of those ‘damned if you do, damned if you don’t.’ Personally, the citizens of the county, the citizens of Brackettville itself, their needs far outweigh his, the people in that truck.” Lyna Salazar lives in the housing unit that the truck hit, along with her fiancé and two children, aged 3 and 1. The high-speed chases “just kept getting closer into town, into town, into town. I just knew it was going to happen,” Salazar said. The house has a crack on the inside where it was struck, but the outside brick is in worse shape, she said. She’s hoping the housing authority will consider placing large boulders on the corner to serve as a vehicle barrier. Looking from her yard, three blocks down, boulders can be seen that protect the school gym. Brackettville’s high school goes into a “hold in place” mode whenever a high-speed chase gets too close for comfort. On Feb. 18, the school day was underway when the warning came over the speakers. “They usually don’t tell us what it’s about,” a high school student told Insight. “But we could hear the police sirens. Obviously it was a chase, because that’s what happens.” That day, a second “hold in place” was called in the mid-afternoon during another chase. And as the student athletes practiced at the town’s running track later the same afternoon, police cars whizzed by, responding to another smuggling incident. The school and the track are both located along popular smuggling routes. School board member and parent Mark Perez said the boulders were placed in front of the school in the spring of 2021 and cost about $60,000. “Unfortunately, we could use that towards our students for their education, but right now we’re using it for their safety because of everything that’s going on,” Perez told Insight. He said other precautions include moving the parent pickup/drop-off zone to the back of the school instead of out front. “Overall, it’s very concerning. I think everybody in the community could probably agree that it’s uneasy, not knowing when you’re going to have a pursuit come down and if the kids are going to be at recess or walking back and forth between classes,” Perez said. While law enforcement always tries to initiate a vehicle pursuit away from town, the unpredictable nature of the pursuits means it’s sometimes unavoidable. Recently, a greater number of smugglers are also being caught with a firearm, the sheriff said. “Sometimes they’re under the seat, sometimes in the console,” he said. “But we’re hearing that whoever’s running the smuggling operation and hiring these people, they’ve given them the green light to start engaging us with their firearms.” Last month, deputies stopped a vehicle in the middle of the night and a teenage driver exited the vehicle with what looked like a gun in his hand. “One of the deputies drew down on him, getting ready. He [the deputy] told him to drop it and he did,” Coe said. “It looked real, but it was a plastic BB gun. It wouldn’t have taken a lot for that whole scenario to go south. “Before this is over, somebody’s going to get shot. I just pray it’s not one of my guys.” I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 25
T H G IL T O P S CIVILIAN EVACUATION A FATHER SAYS GOODBYE TO HIS wife and children as they evacuate Kyiv by train to western cities, on March 3. Russia’s assault continues on Ukraine’s major cities, including the capital. PHOTO BY PIERRE CROM/GETTY IMAGES
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I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 27
Nation Justice System
L AW E N F O R C E M E N T
Progressive Prosecutors Ramp Up Police Charges District attorneys in major cities are securing dozens of criminal indictments against police officers
C
By Cara Ding hief prosecutors in Austin, San Francisco, and Chicago have doubled down on criminal prosecutions of law enforcement officials in the past year-and-a-half, following the George Floyd protests. All three prosecutors were elected on a progressive platform to ease up on criminal punishment, especially on low-level crimes, while getting tougher on police to root out what they’ve called the bad apples. Just one year into his term, Travis County District Attorney José Garza in Austin, Texas, has secured 29 criminal indictments against law enforcement officials, according to records. Nearly 9 out of 10 indictments alleged excessive use of force while on duty. The largest batch of indictments came in February, alleging that 19 Austin police officers used excessive force during the Floyd protests in 2020. Garza has also secured rare murder indictments for two Austin police officers. His first indictment against a police officer for excessive use of force fell apart in a few months. ON JAN. 20, 2021, AUSTIN police officers
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Public Sentiment On the campaign trail, Garza, a former public defender, said his predecessor had never charged an officer for an on-duty fatal shooting and vowed to bring all police shootings—and more misconduct cases—to a grand jury. He credited part of his victory to the public sentiment following Floyd’s death. San Francisco County District Attorney Chesa Boudin started to push the envelope of prosecuting police officers in November 2020 and charged San Francisco rookie officer Chris Samayoa with involuntary manslaughter. It was believed to be the first homicide prosecution against a law enforcement officer in the history of San Francisco, according to an official statement. In December 2017, Samayoa shot and killed a carjacking suspect named Keita O’Neil who was fleeing on foot and had no weapon on him, according to prosecutors. A year after the Samayoa case, Boudin’s office initiated a second homicide prosecution against San Francisco police officer Kenneth Cha. This time, the charge was voluntary manslaughter. The incident happened in January 2017, when Cha and his partner, Colin Patino, responded to a citizen’s call complaining that Sean Moore had violated a temporary restraining order that prohibited noise harassment. When Cha and Patino moved to arrest Moore, he resisted. After a few rounds of strug-
gles, Cha drew his gun and pointed at Moore who kicked one of the officers. Cha shot Moore twice in the abdomen. Moore died three years later from complications involving the gun wounds, according to prosecutors. Since Boudin assumed office in January 2020, he has filed at least six criminal charges against law enforcement officials, all alleging unjustified use of force while on duty. One case, that of San Francisco police officer Terrance Stangel, led to allegations that Boudin’s office engaged in unethical practices in handling evidence. On Jan. 27, at a hearing for the Stangel case, district attorney investigator Magen Hayashi testified in court that she was pressured by prosecutors to withhold evidence favorable to Stangel. Hayashi said she honored the request out of fear of losing her job, according to The
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Chance Bretches and Gregory Gentry were both indicted for aggravated assault by a public servant, a first-degree felony under Texas’ penal code. The incident happened in March 2019, when Gentry and Bretches moved to arrest two men believed to be engaging in drug sales in a high-crime area. One of the men resisted arrest before he was forcibly put into handcuffs and sustained injuries from the arrest, according to a police statement. A prosecutor under Garza’s predecessor Margaret Moore got an expert opinion that considered Gentry’s use
of force to be lawful. However, Garza’s office failed to disclose that opinion to defense attorneys, according to an official statement. By law, prosecutors have a duty to disclose to the defense evidence favorable to the defendant. In July, Garza’s office dropped the indictment against Gentry.
Nation Justice System
People hold up signs outside the Austin Police Department in Texas on July 26, 2020.
Nearly 9 out of 10 criminal indictments against law enforcement officials alleged excessive use of force while on duty.
Chicago police officers stand guard outside the department's 7th District station on Aug. 11, 2020. Chicago's Cook County state attorney drastically increased the number of criminal indictments against police officers in the year 2021, compared to 2017–2020. San Francisco Examiner, which obtained and reviewed the 123-page transcript of the testimony. Former employee Jeffrey Pailet also alleged that Boudin’s office attempted to tamper with evidence on search warrants and fired him after he refused to play along. He filed a lawsuit against Boudin in November 2021 over the alleged illegal termination. Before his firing, Pailet supervised a team of investigators at the Independent Investigation Bureau, a unit dedicated to investigations of officer-involved shooting deaths and excessive use of force cases. Boudin’s office denied the allegations. Boudin, a former public defender and the son of incarcerated parents, was
narrowly elected in November 2019 on a progressive platform. He faces a recall election in June. Cook County State Attorney Kim Foxx in Chicago drastically increased the number of criminal indictments against police officers in 2021. IN 2021, HER OFFICE charged four Chi-
cago police officers and one police lieutenant for excessive use of force while on duty. Another three officers were charged with off-duty criminal misconduct. During her first term between 2017 and 2020, her office only charged one or two Chicago police officers per year, according to official records.
In the case of Lt. Wilfredo Roman, he was charged with aggravated battery and official misconduct—both class 3 felonies—for allegedly shoving a flashlight between a suspect’s buttocks. The incident happened on Feb. 9, 2021, shortly after Roman and other police officers pursued and arrested a 17-yearold male for an alleged carjacking. The suspect kept yelling that his handcuffs were too tight. As a police officer was adjusting the handcuffs, Roman yelled, “Shut up!” and used his flashlight against the suspect, according to the criminal complaint. Roman’s attorney, James McKay, said at the bond hearing that the flashlight was shoved over the teen’s clothes and didn’t cause injuries, according to Chicago Sun-Times. Roman had worked at the Chicago Police Department for 21 years. He gathered 112 honorable mentions for his police work, according to official records. Foxx was reelected to another fouryear term in the aftermath of the Floyd protests in November 2020, despite rising crime. She said she would carry on her progressive prosecution agenda. I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 29
Nation Population
S O C IE T Y
US Birth Rate Hit Record Low in 2020
The decline in the U.S. birth rate and total births continues a trend that started in 2008.
CDC data show 3.61 million births the fewest since 1980
T
By Jackson Elliott he rate of births in the United States fell to a new record low in 2020, according to data released on Feb. 7 by the Centers for Disease Control and Preven-
tion (CDC). There were 3.61 million children born in the United States in 2020, the lowest total since 1980, according to data drawn from birth certificates and compiled by the CDC’s National Vital Statistics System. The rate of births among women aged 15 to 44 declined by 4 percent compared to 2019, to an all-time low of 56 births per 1,000 females, according to the data. THE DECLINE IN the U.S. birth rate and to-
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sex. It isn’t exactly clear what causes these trends, but there are several theories. Lower testosterone, more time spent playing video games, and changing relationship dynamics from social media might all play at least some role, he said. In 1990, sex, teen pregnancy, and drug use reached a peak, Wolfinger said. But since then, these behaviors have generally declined. “A lot of those changes are not all negative,” he said. IN SOME WAYS, risky behaviors decreased or
migrated online, Wolfinger said. This change had many effects. Rates of teen pregnancy, rates of sexually transmitted diseases, and even rates of rape have decreased. “As internet porn became a thing, those same years’ rates of rape declined a lot,” he said. But there are good risky behaviors that have
3.61 MILLION CHILDREN WERE BORN
in the United States in 2020, the lowest total since 1980.
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tal births continues a trend that started in 2008, according to birth certificate data. Even though the U.S. population has grown by 100 million from 1980 to 2020, there were fewer births in the United States in 2021 than there were three decades ago. Birth rates fell for women aged 15 to 44 and remained steady for the youngest (10 to 14) and oldest (45 to 49) groups studied. The birth rates declined the most among teenagers aged 15 to 19. There were 15.4 births per 1,000 teenage girls in this age group in 2020, down by 8 percent from 2019 and another record low. The teenage birth rate has declined every year since 2007. According to University of Utah professor of Family and Communication Studies Nick Wolfinger, one reason for this decrease in birth rates is that younger Americans are in sexual relationships less often. “A big part of the lower rates of sex are that people are just less coupled than they were 30 years ago, less likely to have boyfriend or girlfriend,” Wolfinger said. But that’s only half the story, Wolfinger said. Married couples are also having less
Nation Population
declined as well, Wolfinger said. Many people have avoided starting relationships, getting married, and having children. THESE “SOCIAL GOODS” make society more sta-
ble and create its future, he said. When people don’t participate in them, communities grow weaker. Right now, the United States doesn’t have enough people to fill jobs. To some extent, the labor shortage can be traced to lower birth rates. “You want these kids. Children are a social good. You want people to have children,” Wolfinger said. “There’s a lot of downstream consequences here.” According to Wolfinger’s research, actively religious people are the most likely to have children. The study of society-wide sexual activity is a relatively new scientific field, so researchers have relatively little data to examine, Wolfinger said. As a result, it’s hard to make predictions about where the United States will be if people don’t have children. But the few points of data he offered were disheartening. Japan has had a birth rate below the replacement rate since 1974. The island nation now faces an elderly population with a far smaller next generation to support them. Wolfinger said he visited Japan with his wife a few years ago. “At one point, we were in the mall, and the mall had three stores where you could buy clothes for your dogs, but no stores selling baby clothes,” he said.
Lower testosterone, more time spent playing video games, and changing relationship dynamics from social media might all play at least some role in younger Americans being less engaged in sexual relationships. I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 31
GEOPO
AM UKRAIN CHINA T RIS US Forced to Look to West
By Frank
32 I N S I G H T Feb. 25–March 3, 2022
LITICS
MID NE WAR, THREAT SES as Threat in East Grows
Fang
Smoke rises from a Russian tank destroyed by the Ukrainian forces on the side of a road, in Luhansk, Ukraine, on Feb. 26. PHOTO BY ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
I N S I G H T Feb. 25–March 3, 2022 33
The Lead National Security
N E W S A N A LY S I S
34 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
According to a joint statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese leader Xi Jinping said there would be “no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation” between their countries. certainly not with neoliberal and neoconservative elites like Joe Biden, or even Lindsey Graham, running the show in Washington,” he said. “Under [former President Donald] Trump, this was our last exit ramp, before a real catastrophe happening”—the buildup of the Sino–Russian alliance, he said. The recent approach has effectively pushed Russian President Vladimir Putin into a corner, according to Weichert. And with no else to turn to, Putin chose to side with the Chinese Communist Party. But this outcome, he said, could have been averted. While Russa is by no means an ideal or natural partner, given the country’s human rights and military record, Weichert said, it has to be acknowledged that Moscow could have helped the U.S. administration in providing a valuable counterweight to Beijing.
“If we could get the right leader in charge, we would be able to possibly break Russia away from China, because ultimately, Russia still doesn’t trust China,” he said. “And ultimately, Russia would prefer to continue to do business with the Europeans, and to still have positive relations, at least in space, and on nuclear matters with the Americans.” As this didn’t occur, Russia and China are deepening their relationship, in ways previously unseen. Two weeks before the invasion, as Russia was drawing heavy international criticism for its plans to attack Ukraine, Putin and Xi proclaimed a “no limits” partnership, a bilateral relationship “superior to political and military alliances of the Cold War era.” This burgeoning partnership is worrisome, Weichert said, because the two countries decided not just to cooperate economically and militarily, but to work
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s the world focuses on Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine—along with the climbing civilian death toll and growing refugee crisis—it’s also witnessing a seismic shift in the global geopolitical landscape. Russia’s actions in Europe have drawn the eyes of the United States and its allies to the West, as they did in decades past, as meanwhile a larger, more formidable force gathers strength in the East, setting its sights on dominating the Indo-Pacific, and then the world. For decades, the Chinese communist regime has been building its economic and military might so as to replace the United States as the sole superpower by mid-century. With the regime acknowledged by the U.S. administration as America’s primary threat, posing its “greatest geopolitical test,” Washington has been shifting its resources and energy to the Indo-Pacific region in a bid to check Beijing’s rising influence there. But the escalating war in Eastern Europe is frustrating Washington’s plans, analysts say, even as the Biden administration insists that it can focus on two theaters—Europe and the Indo-Pacific— at the same time. “The revival of Cold War 1.0 (Moscow–Washington) taking oxygen majorly away from Cold War 2.0 (Beijing– Washington) is a blunder of historical proportions where the democracies are concerned,” Madhav Nalapat, a strategic analyst and vice chair of the India-based Manipal Advanced Research Group, recently told Insight. Nalapat pinned the blame on Washington and NATO for engaging in a series of strategic missteps that he believed culminated in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Brandon Weichert, geopolitical analyst and author of “Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower,” held the same view, chiding the Biden administration for choosing to return to “pre-Trump normal” with respect to its relations with Russia—that is, by adopting a policy that sought to “contain Russia” and put pressure on Moscow to be “a good democracy with human rights.” “Vladimir Putin believes that no more deals can be made with the United States,
The Lead National Security
(Above) Members of the territorial defense near the recruitment office in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Feb. 25. (Left) Pediatric patients stay in the basement of a hospital that is being used as a bomb shelter, in Kyiv on Feb. 28. together in a “general ideological way.” “They’re starting to look at the ideological component—the component of autocracy, the concept of multipolarity—having many different powers in the world, as opposed to only the United States running the world, with spheres of influence,” he said. “That is something that Russia and the Chinese leadership for 30 years have talked about, but they never actually shared or coordinated with one another. Now we see the beginnings of that.” The White House didn’t respond to a request for comment by press time.
Distrustful Partners On the opening day of the Winter Olympics, Putin met with Xi in Beijing, displaying a united front against growing international condemnation of their respective regimes. According to a 5,000-word joint statement, the two leaders said there would be “no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation” between their countries. The statement also revealed that Putin and Xi had decided to support each other geopolitically: China denounced the enlargement of NATO, a key justification for Russia’s invasion, while Moscow backed
Two weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin and Xi proclaimed a ‘no limits’ partnership, a bilateral relationship ‘superior to political and military alliances of the Cold War era.’
Beijing’s claim that self-governing Taiwan was a part of China. The new partnership is, in fact, many years in the making, particularly after 2014 when Russia was hit with multiple sanctions over its annexation of Crimea. Since then, bilateral trade has gone up more than 50 percent and now China is the top destination of Russian exports. Russia is China’s second-biggest oil supplier behind Saudi Arabia, accounting for 15.5 percent of China’s total imports in 2021. Russia is also a major supplier of gas and coal to China. While the bond between Russia and China might appear strong on the surface, Weichert said that Putin must be fully aware of what the partnership would entail. “What’s going on now is, Russia under Putin is very aware that they are relatively weaker than China. And the closer that Putin gets to China, the more likely he’s going to become a second player— second fiddle to Xi Jinping’s juggernaut in China,” he said. I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 35
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“The last thing he wants to do is go from ond-largest economy, trailing the United being sort of pushed around by the West States. According to 2020 data from the to then switching over to the Chinese, and World Bank, China’s economy is about 10 suddenly being subordinated or assim- times bigger than Russia’s. ilated by China into their new growing The economic power behind the Chihigh-tech empire of Eurasia.” nese communist regime thus allows it to In Weichart’s view, do things that Russia Putin has already cannot, Anders Corr, tried to assert his principal at the New dominance over Xi, York-based political when the Russian consultancy firm president decided Corr Analytics, said. to deploy Russian “China uses that troops into Kazakheconomic power not stan as peacekeepers only to build its milin January. itary,” Corr, who is “I think Putin was also a columnist for trying to say, ‘Hey, Xi, Insight, said. “China we can work togethis able to use that er to trade in Central economic power for Asia, but I’m the alpha political influence male here, you work around the world. with me, not the other “So essentially, way around,’” he said. they’re able to bribe China has dramatpoliticians, whether ically dialed up its that’s directly by givinfluence in Central ing them bags of cash, Asia—a region of or they’re able to bribe Brandon Weichert, geopolitical former Soviet states them through promanalyst and author where Russia holds ises of aids, loans, and much sway—in recheap loans.” cent years, as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Western officials and experts have Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have all signed criticized China for exporting corrupup to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, tion through BRI or sustaining corrupalso known as One Belt, One Road). tion in BRI-participating nations. The Beijing rolled out the initiative in 2013 to program also has been described as a increase its economic and political clout form of “debt-trap diplomacy,” which worldwide by building up trade routes saddles developing countries with unlinking China, Southeast Asia, Central sustainable debt burdens, potentially Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America. forcing those nations to transfer stra“The allies—China and Russia—are con- tegic assets to Beijing. stantly going to be looking over each othChina Merchants Port Holdings is now er’s shoulder even when they’re working running Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port together to push back American power on a 99-year lease, after the South Asian projection, in Eurasia first and eventually country was unable to service a $1.4 throughout the world,” he said. billion loan for its construction in 2017. Seizing the port has allowed Beijing to Bigger Threat gain a key foothold in the Indian Ocean. The most important factor making the Critically, the Chinese regime has a Chinese regime a bigger threat than Rus- unique advantage in the West arising sia is the size of the Chinese economy, from its sprawling business ties between according to Weichert. Western firms, eager to gain a greater “The China threat is the longer-term pie of the lucrative Chinese market. As strategic threat,” he said. “They’re the a result, Beijing has been able to build ones with the greater technology base. clout in the United States and elsewhere, They’re the ones whose economy is right through its own elites—a strategy known behind the size of America’s.” as “elite capture.” China is currently the world’s sec“The Chinese Communist Party has
“The China threat is the longer-term strategic threat. They’re the ones with the greater technology base. They’re the ones whose economy is right behind the size of America’s.”
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China’s first domestically manufactured aircraft carrier, known only as “Type 001A,” leaves port in Dalian, Liaoning Province, China, on May 13, 2018.
done a great job of basically enlisting the elites of the free world. And so a lot of their wealth is tied up in this relationship with China,” Robert Spalding, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and retired Air Force brigadier general, told Insight. The regime, “by entwining themselves into the fortunes of the elites,” is then
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Visitors walk past China's first nuclear missile (C) on display at the Military Museum in Beijing, in this file photo.
able to “push on them and lean on them,” Spalding said. “This is a problem.”
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Taiwan The Chinese regime’s other threat, which has worldwide implications, is its desire to take over Taiwan, a de facto entity Beijing claims as part of its territory. The island, home to the world’s largest contract chipmaker TSMC, produces about 63 percent of the world’s semiconductor chips, compared to the 12 percent produced by U.S. chipmakers. Seizing Taiwan would give China control over the island’s chip manufacturing facilities, potentially allowing Beijing to block other nations from buying the critical technology, which is used to power nearly all electronics from cars to missile systems. “I think China does definitely have its eye on Taiwan. China will be watching what we do, what Russia does in terms
of Ukraine as a lesson that it can take home, in terms of its strategy for Taiwan,” Corr said. “So I think that if we don’t truly punish Russia in a serious way, we will be giving the green light to China to do the same thing to Taiwan.”
Complicit? As the Ukraine war drags on, Beijing has repeatedly refused to condemn Russia for its aggression, nor label the attack as an “invasion.” It has also rejected joining the West in imposing financial sanctions against Moscow, describing such a move as lacking legal basis. Such signs of tacit support have caused some to suggest that Beijing had played a larger role than it appeared on the surface in facilitating Russia’s assault. “Moscow is so much under the thumb of Beijing,” Corr said, adding “which makes me think that in the current case of the
invasion of Ukraine, it is so not in the interests of Russia ... to make itself an international pariah and focus of the world’s attention.” He added: “That makes me suspect that it’s possible Beijing had asked Putin to do this or encouraged Putin to do this in some way. So I think we have to consider that as a possibility.” Indeed, there is piling evidence that Beijing knew of Moscow’s military plans prior to the invasion and had discussed it with Russian officials. Senior Biden administration officials shared intelligence with top Chinese officials about the Russian military buildup near Ukraine, according to a Feb. 25 report by The New York Times. The intelligence-sharing lasted more than three months, the report said, citing unnamed U.S. officials. But China ignored the repeated U.S. warnings, and instead turned around to tell Moscow what it had learned from Americans and that it wouldn’t interfere with Russia’s plans. A Western intelligence report, first covered by The New York Times on March 2, indicated that senior Chinese officials asked senior Russian officials to wait until after the end of the 2022 Winter Games before invading Ukraine. The request happened in early February, but it is unclear from the report whether Xi and Putin talked about it during their meeting in Beijing. Regardless of the level of Chinese involvement, the invasion ultimately served to achieve Beijing’s aims, noted lawmakers and experts. Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) recently told EpochTV’s “China Insider” program that the invasion was a “distraction,” shifting U.S. attention away from the Pacific. “In China’s view, it serves as a way of siphoning off resources that can be used in other areas,” Buck said. For Corr, the invasion would distract people from paying attention to China’s problems, such as the genocide against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in China’s far-western Xinjiang region and the expansion of artificial islands in the South China Sea. Gary Bai contributed to this article. I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 37
ENVIRONMENT
T HE COS T S OF ELEC T RIFIC Push for electrification to reach net zero means large-scale mining, dependence on China, experts say By Nathan Worcester 38 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
A charging station for the app-based car service Revel in Brooklyn, N.Y., on Aug. 2, 2021. PHOTO BY SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES
AT ION
US Government Policy
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l e c t r i f i c at i o n ” h a s become a watchword for the Biden administration, particularly as part of the push for net-zero emissions in the U.S. economy by 2050. In November 2021 remarks to General Motors CEO Mary Barra, for example, President Joe Biden credited GM with having “electrified the automobile industry”—a claim that was immediately questioned by Tesla Motors’ Elon Musk. The U.S. net-zero by 2050 commitment, shared in one form or another by countries, companies, and nongovernmental organizations across the planet, first gained traction through the 2015 Paris Agreement. Paris signatories are supposed to “undertake rapid reductions [of greenhouse gas emissions] ... so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century, on the basis of equity and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.” President Donald Trump formally left the Paris Agreement on Nov. 4, 2020, the day after Election Day, after first starting to withdraw in 2017. Yet Biden moved to rejoin the deal on his first day in office via executive order. On Jan. 27, 2021, as part of Executive Order 14008, he directed the country to reach “net-zero emissions, economy-wide, by no later than 2050.” Biden’s moves toward electrification include multiple executive orders. In addition to the above-mentioned 14008, which asked federal agencies to develop a plan for purchasing “clean and zero-emission vehicles” for the federal fleet, those orders encompass Executive Order 14037, which established the goal that “50 percent of all new passenger vehicles and light trucks sold in 2030 be zero-emission vehicles,” and Executive Order 14057, which relays plans for the federal government to reduce carbon emissions. Biden also wants the United States to have “100 percent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035,” as described in an April 2021 fact sheet. November 2021’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure legislation includes multibillion-dollar outlays related to electrification. One that was detailed I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 39
US Government Policy
An employee working at a lithium battery manufacturing company's workshop in Huaibei, Anhui Province, China, on Nov. 14, 2020. China is “about a decade ahead of the United States” in the supply chain for advanced batteries.
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“OUR RELIANCE ON CHINA IS ABOUT 80 PERCENT FOR THESE MINER ALS RIGHT NOW.” Mary Hutzler, distinguished fellow, Institute for Energy Research
of the environmental costs of lithium production, which it calls “far more environmentally harmful than what turned out to be the unfounded issues with fracking.” “Mining, processing, and disposing of these metals can contaminate the drinking water, land, and environment if done improperly,” the IER stated, citing issues that have arisen in Tibet, Australia, and South America’s ‘Lithium Triangle,’ which is made up of parts of Chile, Bolivia, and Argentina. Some lawmakers have argued that the Biden administration is stymying domestic mining, even as it becomes integral to the sort of electrification and net-zero emissions envisioned by the administration—a conflict only sharpened as the United States tries to reduce its dependence on China, which currently dominates the battery supply chain. At an October 2021 Republican forum on Biden’s departure from Afghanistan, speakers said the administration’s flight from the country left huge reserves of lithium, uranium, platinum, and other key minerals under Taliban and, poten-
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on Feb. 10 was a $5 billion, five-year program to develop a national network for charging electric vehicles. The Biden administration is far from alone in advocating rapid electrification to meet net-zero goals. In an October 2021 blog post published shortly before the COP26 climate meeting, the World Economic Forum (WEF) stated that “clean electrification” could “get us three-quarters of the way to net zero.” Amid this pressure to change how the world gets its energy, the scale and risk of the new investments required for such a transition are coming into focus. A 2021 International Energy Agency (IEA) report on critical minerals envisions a massive growth in demand for chromium (75 times), copper (67 times), and other minerals, in order to deploy solar installations, electric vehicles, and similar infrastructure on a large scale by 2040. That means a lot more mining—and more mining could translate to more pollution, especially where environmental laws are lax or poorly enforced. A commentary from the Institute for Energy Research (IER) describes some
US Government Policy
tially, Chinese control, even at a time when stateside mining ventures, such as Arizona’s Resolution copper mine and Minnesota’s Twin Metals mine, have been slowed or halted. “It’s almost like it’s intentional to stop U.S. production of these critical minerals and elements,” said Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.), ranking Republican on the House Committee on Natural Resources, during the forum. Speaking to a panel at the Hudson Institute, Anthony Vinci, a national security expert who served as chief technology officer for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency under Trump, commented on the challenge China presents by dint of its control of batteries. “Has the issue of batteries and supply chain tripped over that wire to where we’re now moved from normal, quote-unquote ‘normal,’ economic competition to economic coercion and into economic warfare?” Vinci said. “I would propose that we’re not quite there yet, but we’re in a state that I would call ‘preparation of the battlefield.’ Batteries are so key to Department of Defense capabilities in the next five to 10 years.” A few core questions must be asked: What would it take for large-scale electrification in the pursuit of net-zero, and what would it mean for U.S. reliance on China?
A Look at the Numbers
used in the cathodes of many lithium-ion batteries, was almost entirely obtained from the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2019, according to the report—but up to half of that production is controlled by Chinese companies. The United States, by contrast, imported 76 percent of its cobalt in 2020, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). “China owns eight of the 14 largest cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and they account for about half of the country’s output. An American company once owned the largest DRC mine, but sold it in 2016 to China Molybdenum,” said Mary Hutzler, distinguished fellow at the IER. Similarly, although the IEA projects that global demand for graphite—a key battery anode material—will soar, the United States remains dependent on other countries for its graphite supply. It imported 100 percent of its graphite in 2020, according to USGS. China, meanwhile, produces more than 60 percent of the world’s graphite per the IEA’s 2021 report. In her remarks to the Republican forum on the U.S. departure from Afghanistan, Hutzler expanded on the scale of U.S. dependence on China for minerals used in electric vehicles, solar panels, and similar technologies. “Our reliance on China is about 80 percent for these minerals right now, where the high for us in 2001 on oil from the Middle East was 23 percent. We’re going
to be four times as dependent on China as we were on the Middle East,” she said. Hutzler has also previously highlighted China’s dominance in new lithium-ion battery factories. In a 2020 analysis, she noted that “of the 136 lithium-ion battery plants in the pipeline to 2029, 101 are based in China.” Hutlzer’s worries mirrored those of Nadia Schadlow, who served as U.S. deputy national security adviser for strategy under Trump. Schadlow told the Hudson Institute that one of her briefers described China as “about a decade ahead of the United States” in the supply chain for advanced batteries. Along similar lines, a 2020 report on lithium-ion batteries from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) underscores the scale of Chinese investment in battery cathodes, including lithium and cobalt chemical supplies, as well as nickel and overall cathode supply. BMI also drew attention to some of the environmental hazards of lithium-ion batteries. “Against a backdrop of rising ESG concerns in mining investing, the environmental footprint of this supply chain has faced tough scrutiny,” the report reads, citing figures from Volkswagen that suggested production of the company’s battery-electric vehicles had almost double the carbon footprint of producing one of its diesel vehicles. As the United States and the world
That 2021 report from the IEA is a good place to start. It predicts a stark rise in demand for many critical minerals, in keeping with trends that are already underway. “A typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car, and an onshore wind plant requires nine times more mineral resources than a gasfired power plant,” the report reads. “Since 2010, the average amount of minerals needed for a new unit of power generation has increased 50 percent as the share of renewables has risen.” The report stresses the need to step up the mining of lithium, cobalt, and other minerals used in electric vehicles, solar plants, and wind farms. Today, the mining and particularly the processing of many of those minerals is concentrated in China. Even in cases where extraction doesn’t occur in China, the country often occupies a dominant position. Cobalt, which is
A bulldozer works at the Arcadia Lithium Mine in Goromonzi, Zimbabwe, on Jan. 11. A Chinese firm said it would pay $422 million to acquire the hard-rock lithium mine, whose product is a key ingredient in rechargeable batteries used in electric vehicles. I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 41
US Government Policy
50 PERCENT
Since 2010, the average amount of minerals needed for a new unit of power generation has increased 50 percent as the share of renewables has risen, according to the Institute for Energy Research.
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Traffic backs up at the San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge toll plaza in Oakland, Calif., on Feb. 16. The Biden administration is finalizing a waiver that will allow the state of California to adopt its own vehicle emissions standards. tions such as Canada and Australia.” In the United States, one proposed mine, the Tamarack nickel mine in northern Minnesota, would be only the second high-quality nickel operation in the United States. It’s already facing pushback from environmental groups. WaterLegacy, a group opposed to sulfide mining in northern Minnesota, has written that the proposed mine “poses a unique threat” because of its potential for yielding copper, nickel, cobalt ore, platinum, palladium, and gold near various state and federal lands as well as “high-quality rice waters.” “I suspect more groups are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach in their opposition given how vocal they have been in supporting mandates for electric vehicles,” Isaac Orr, a policy fellow with the Center of the American Experiment, told The Epoch Times in an email. Orr has written about the proposed mine for the center. “These groups typically argue there’s no guarantee that the nickel will go to Tesla. In this case, they can’t do that,” he said. “I’m confident more environmental groups like the Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy will oppose the project as it moves forward.” A spokesperson for the Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy told The Epoch Times the organization doesn’t
have a policy on the Tamarack mine, noting that the group is “currently gathering information about the proposal.” “The folks who think they’re special because they drink fair trade coffee don’t seem to have much concern about whether their electric car is made using fair-trade cobalt or fair-trade nickel. It’s a classic case of affluent urbanites denying opportunities for high-paying jobs in the natural resource industry for rural communities,” Orr said, noting that mining in Minnesota and similar states could be displaced to countries with looser environmental standards. Hutzler, for her part, believes that rapid electrification could have dire consequences for the United States. “It is clear that electrification of the U.S. economy and its transportation system will mean the ‘Chinafication’ of these important parts of our economy,” she said. WEF officials didn’t respond to a request for comment by press time, nor did representatives for the Electrification Coalition, an organization working on electric vehicle policy; BMI; and various researchers studying net-zero pathways for the United States. In addition, The Epoch Times has reached out to the Department of Energy regarding some of the concerns raised by the IEA, Hutzler, and others, but didn’t receive a response by press time.
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have gone ahead with top-down net-zero and electrification plans, the lithium supply has dwindled, and demand has predictably risen. Lithium carbonate prices in China have increased more than tenfold between late 2020 and mid-February 2022, according to Trading Economics. Hutzler has highlighted environmental challenges to new mines in the West as factors behind that increase. She drew attention to actions against approved lithium mines in Chile and Serbia, as well as the proposed Thacker Pass Lithium Mine in Nevada, currently embroiled in a court battle. “When demand exceeds supply, prices increase, as is the case with lithium, which could end the spiraling down of electric vehicle battery prices, making the green energy transition even harder to achieve,” she said. The IEA’s 2021 report similarly states that the price of raw materials could rise and, as other production costs drop, heavily dictate the prices of future batteries. “It is therefore of paramount importance for governments and industry to work to ensure adequate supply of battery metals to mitigate any price increases, and the resulting challenges for clean electrification,” the report reads. Nickel may also be poised to experience shortages, Hutzler said. In November 2021, Musk asked mining companies to step up their nickel mining operations in anticipation of rising demand. “Any mining companies out there, please mine more nickel,” Musk said. “Go for efficiency, obviously environmentally friendly nickel mining at high volume. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally sensitive way.” Giga Metals CEO Mark Jarvis responded, “If you want environmentally responsible nickel, I really think you have to look at sulphide deposits in first-world jurisdic-
P OL I T IC S • E C ONOM Y • OPI N ION T H AT M AT T E R S
Perspectives
No.09
People walk through a shopping mall in Manhattan on Jan. 12. The annual consumer price index has climbed to a 40-year high of 7.5 percent. PHOTO BY SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES
ECONOMIC ANSCHLUSS
CHINA AGAINST NATO IN UKRAINE
NO BULL FROM BULLARD
The similarity of Putin to Hitler is unmissable. 44
Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran coordinate the destruction of democracy. 45
Fed's Bullard calls for a more aggressive interest rate hike. 47
INSIDE I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 43
THOMAS MCARDLE was a White House speechwriter for President George W. Bush and writes for IssuesInsights.com.
Thomas McArdle
Economic Anschluss
The similarity of Putin to Hitler is unmissable
I
n in va ding uk r a ine , where he is encountering heroic and unexpectedly effective resistance, ex-KGB officer Vladimir Putin has unabashedly embarked on step one of what in effect will be a restoration of the Soviet Union. The primary cause of this unfolding catastrophe is the completely avoidable European—and even American—over-reliance on Russian energy resources. “The virus of nationalist ambitions is still with us, and the mine laid at the initial stage to destroy state immunity to the disease of nationalism was ticking,” Putin said in his blood-curdling speech several days before the invasion began. “As I have already said, the mine was the right of secession from the Soviet Union.” On the day his forces were rolling into Ukraine, he referred to the United States and our NATO allies as “those who declared themselves the winners of the Cold War.” He said “the whole so-called Western bloc formed by the United States in its own image and likeness is, in its entirety” an “empire of lies.” And he declared, “In territories adjacent to Russia, which I have to note is our historical land, a hostile ‘anti-Russia’ is taking shape.” When Putin falsely claims that “since time immemorial, the people living in the southwest of what has historically been Russian land have called themselves Russians and Orthodox Christians” and so “I made a decision to carry out a special military operation ... to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine,” the similarity to Hitler is unmissable. In September 1938, days before taking the Sudetenland, Hitler declared, “With regard to the problem of the Sudeten Germans, my patience is now at an end! ... Now at last give to the Germans their freedom, or we will go and fetch this freedom for ourselves.”
44 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
As commentators now mull Putin’s ultimate objectives, his state of mind, and Russia’s historic inclination toward imperialism, the 800-pound gorilla in the room is the European Union’s avoidable economic dependence on Russia—for Putin, a 21st-century economic Anschluss with former Warsaw Pact nations and those beyond. Germany, for instance, imports well more than half of its natural gas from Russia. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s defense minister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, admitted in a tweet “our historical failure.”
The war going on today in Ukraine is red hot, a direct consequence of the free world underestimating the threat of postSoviet Russia and the socialist-oriented, environmentalismobsessed European Union allowing itself to become energy dependent. “After Georgia, Crimea, and Donbas, we have not prepared anything that would have really deterred Putin,” she wrote. Merkel and her predecessor, Gerhard Schroeder, who cozied up to Putin and after his premiership ended up taking a generous stipend from Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, turned to Moscow for their energy needs, most ominously after Merkel closed down Germany’s nuclear power industry. It was symbolized well by an incident that few Americans remember.
In 2007, visiting Putin’s presidential residence to discuss energy and other economic matters, the dog-fearing Merkel was subjected to a surprise visit by his abnormally massive black Labrador, in full view of the press. Merkel was terrified and Putin delighted. Outrageously, the United States itself currently imports more than 20 percent of our gasoline and refined petroleum products from Russia. For years, the perennially naive, dovish EU and the foreign policy operatives surrounding President Joe Biden and President Barack Obama have regarded Putin as a cartoon figure, either part of their fantasies aimed against Donald Trump or a faraway irritant well down on their list of concerns. As Obama put it nearly a decade ago, dismissing concerns over Putin’s Russia, “You know, the Cold War’s been over for 20 years.” The war going on today in Ukraine is red-hot, a direct consequence of the free world underestimating the threat of post-Soviet Russia and the socialist-oriented, environmentalism-obsessed EU allowing itself to become energy dependent on and vulnerable to an anti-democratic premier-for-life who nearly 17 years ago publicly made clear his view that “it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” Four thousand miles east of Kyiv, another anti-democratic premier-for-life, China’s Xi Jinping, watches the tepid response to Putin’s aggression from a free West that allowed itself to become soft, unsure of its moral standing, and economically dependent on tyrants—Xi more than any other. He likely sees little to deter him from pouncing on free Taiwan, having already moved against Hong Kong.
ANDERS CORR is a principal at Corr Analytics Inc., publisher of the Journal of Political Risk. He is an expert in political science and government.
Anders Corr
China Against NATO in Ukraine
Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran coordinate the destruction of democracy
s deadly missiles rain upon Ukraine from a fateful and ill-conceived decision by Vladimir Putin to invade, one prominent country stands with the Russian dictator: China. Having just signed a wide-ranging strategic agreement with Putin on Feb. 4, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is effectively joining a Moscow pact against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). China’s junior ally Iran also signaled support for the dictators by condemning NATO as at fault for Russia’s crime. The condemnation of NATO’s expansion is the condemnation of European democracy’s self-defense. That stance against democratic defense is central to China’s emerging alliance systems. The three dictatorships claim that NATO is offensive, even though it’s clearly defensive. They ignore the right of people and countries everywhere to choose their own leaders in fair elections. They reject the right of nations to choose their own defensive alliances based on shared democratic values. They thereby flout the U.N. 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights. For Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran, the normal laws of decency that all nations follow are thrown out the window. Xi seeks to control the world. Tehran has fallen in line. And Putin is doing his best as a second-tier partner by striking the first blow for our illiberal future. What Putin does today to Ukraine, Xi will do tomorrow to Taiwan. Tehran will do the same in Iraq and Syria. The three ongoing fights are inextricably linked as the world’s dictators-in-chief seek ever more power, held by hubristically assuming NATO and friends are too cowardly to oppose them militarily. They think that making their countries sanction-proof by intertwining their economies, diverting their trade
to one another, and denominating their contracts increasingly in the yuan instead of the dollar, will keep their new conquests safe. On Feb. 24, the day of the first missile attack on Ukraine, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs sided with the aggressor. Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the ministry spokeswoman denounced the United States, validated “Russia’s legitimate concerns on security issues,” and complicated the aggression by referring to Moscow’s “specific” historical grievances.
What Putin does today to Ukraine, Xi will do tomorrow to Taiwan. Tehran will do the same in Iraq and Syria. China’s support for the Russian invasion can be outwardly subtle, but powerful beneath the surface, as Beijing guarantees Moscow an economic lifeline in case of sanctions. Beijing knows that such support can blow back with secondary sanctions on China’s economy. Already, China’s Unipec couldn’t find a ship to deliver Russian crude oil. After the Feb. 4 meeting between Xi and Putin, “China’s top leaders huddled behind closed doors for several days to discuss the Ukraine crisis, according to people familiar with the matter,” according to The Wall Street Journal. “Among their concerns, these people said, was the risk of financial and trade penalties imposed by Washington in response to any help that Beijing might extend to help Russia evade U.S. sanctions,” the outlet reported. Indeed, the United States and its allies can—and must—sanction Russia along with China for its enabling role in the invasion. Without Xi’s promise to help Russia financially, Putin couldn’t have
made the decision to invade. The NATO response to the Russian invasion more generally can’t be in isolation from the China threat. To do so would ignore the core of the illiberal alliance system in Beijing. Democracies around the world that wish to defend themselves against these rising authoritarians must have a comprehensive strategy—at the core of which is removing the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from its coordinating role. The United States has talked about this since President Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia,” still incomplete two administrations later. U.S. alliance systems are bifurcated between NATO in Europe, and our hub-and-spokes in Asia, which are so brittle that without the United States, it would fall apart. What’s more, the Ukraine crisis threatens to derail that pivot, which perhaps not coincidentally is exactly what the CCP wants. On Feb. 19, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson rightly called for a new global NATO. “If Ukraine is invaded, the shock will echo around the world,” said Johnson, who warned that autocratic regimes in Asia and further afield would “draw the conclusion that aggression pays and that might is right.” No longer can NATO think that the protection of its members is limited to Europe. As long as China, with an economy that’s approximately 10 times that of Russia, continues to pull the strings with dictators around the world, NATO must address the root of the problem in Asia. Despite the temptation to focus on the televised violence likely to unfold daily from Ukraine over the next weeks, we need to take the larger strategic view and look at the source of that violence, which is Beijing’s influential antipathy for both democracy and the world’s most powerful democratic alliance: NATO. I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 45
MILTON EZRATI is chief economist for Vested, a contributing editor at The National Interest, and author of "Thirty Tomorrows" and "Bite-Sized Investing.”
Milton Ezrati
Recession Is in the Cards
Inflation forces economically painful choices on the Fed
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arch approaches, the month that the Federal Reserve promised to show its anti-inflation hand. It will, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has announced, cease its quantitative easing and begin to raise interest rates. Unless favored heavily by Lady Luck, whatever steps the Fed takes will bring market and economic pain and, in time, probably recession. It was hopes of good luck that informed Powell’s—and the White House’s—pronouncements through most of last year when they claimed repeatedly that price pressures would pass speedily without the need for a policy response because, officials insisted, the problems were merely the transitory product of a post-pandemic demand surge and pandemic-induced supply chain problems. Though this take could still be true, it’s highly unlikely on several counts. Even officials in Washington have now abandoned that fiction. Any perspective on economic history always argued against Washington’s happy take on these matters. As this column pointed out months ago, inflation has fundamental roots. The federal government for years—under Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump—ran historically huge budget deficits and is continuing to do so under President Joe Biden. Worse, the Fed’s efforts to keep interest rates low and pour copious amounts of liquidity into financial markets financed the budget deficits with the equivalent of printing money. Liquidity creation by the Fed has absorbed over $5 trillion in new federal debt over the past nine years, including more than $3 trillion since the pandemic began. This combination of policy has long been identified as a classic prescription for inflation. Perhaps Fed decision-makers down-
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played the inflationary risks last year because their expansive policies had gone on so long without any effect on the rate of price increases. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan explained that seeming anomaly years ago in terms of the flow of inexpensive imports from China and elsewhere in Asia and Latin America.
Liquidity creation by the Fed has absorbed over $5 trillion in new federal debt over the past nine years, including more than $3 trillion since the pandemic began. This cheap supply of goods, he pointed out, had a powerful moderating influence on domestic prices. These imports and the damping effect of the fracking revolution on energy prices may indeed explain why it took so long for Washington’s inflationary policies to have an effect. But now these moderators have disappeared. Wages in China and elsewhere are rising fast, as are the prices of their products in general, but especially to foreigners (Americans) because the foreign exchange value of the yuan has also risen. Meanwhile, one of Biden’s first acts on taking office was to halt the fracking revolution, contributing to a rise in global energy prices. And now sanctions against Russia, however otherwise necessary, will heighten that price pressure. Absent the blessing of extremely good luck, the Fed now has two choices: One, it can raise interest rates quickly toward ongoing levels of inflation and otherwise substantively drain liquidity from financial markets and the economy; two, it can take a more
cautious, moderate, and slower path toward monetary restraint. The virtue of the first path is that it deals promptly with the inflationary pressure and lessens the chances that the nation will have to cope with an entrenched problem. There is no denying, however, that such a policy would also surely bring on an unwelcome downdraft in financial markets and even a mild recession. Dealing quickly with inflation would, however, allow market problems to reverse quickly and keep any recession short and shallow. The second choice would cause the least immediate market disruption and economic pain. It would also allow the Fed to shift easily and avoid imposing any recessionary pressure in the admittedly unlikely event that the inflation is “transitory.” The danger is that the action would fail to forestall an entrenched inflation that would only get worse and eventually force more draconian monetary restraint. No doubt such policy measures would precipitate a severe and long-lasting recession. Of course, the Fed could refuse to take sufficient action even as the inflation raged on, in which case the economy would in time face a very severe recession and stagnation from the dislocations and misallocations of capital brought on by the inflation. Decision-making will, as always, depend heavily on politics. Both prudence and an understandable desire to sustain the present economic recovery will surely tempt policymakers to take the more gradualist course. Without lots of good luck, however, that path seems likely only to invite more and longer-lasting pain at a later date. Calculations in Washington will no doubt hinge on how close that later date is to the next presidential election.
Andrew Moran
ANDREW MORAN has been writing about business, economics, and finance for more than a decade. He is the author of “The War on Cash.”
No Bull from Bullard
Fed’s Bullard calls for a more aggressive interest rate hike
STEFANI REYNOLDS/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
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n the aftermath of the January inflation reading, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, has been doing the media rounds and making comments that have been generating headlines across the business media landscape. After the annual consumer price index (CPI) climbed to a 40-year high of 7.5 percent, Bullard suggested that it might be time for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to institute a full percentage point of rate hikes over its next three meetings. He warned that policymakers could be making a mistake by thinking that inflation would dissipate, particularly after incorrectly arguing for much of last year that higher prices would be transitory. Speaking during a recent panel discussion at Columbia University, Bullard cautioned that rampant price inflation could metastasize into a severe issue that could prove challenging to resolve. “We’re at more risk now than we’ve been in a generation that this could get out of control,” he stated. “One scenario would be a new surprise that hits us that we can’t anticipate right now, but we would have even more inflation. That’s the kind of situation that we want to make sure it doesn’t occur.” Bullard also said in a separate interview with CNBC that the Fed’s latest tightening cycle is “not tight policy.” “Don’t let anybody tell you it’s tight policy,” Bullard said. “It’s removal of accommodation that will signal that we take our responsibility seriously.” The U.S. federal funds rate is in the current target range of zero to 0.25 percent. Even if the Fed pulls the trigger on a 25- or 50-basis-point increase at the March policy meeting, it will remain immensely below the 15 percent fed funds rate the last time
Even if the Fed pulls the trigger on a 25- or 50-basispoint increase at the March policy meeting, it will remain immensely below the 15 percent federal funds rate the last time inflation was this high. inflation was this high. Therefore, given these circumstances, he believes the institution must become more aggressive compared to previous efforts throughout the Fed’s history when fighting inflation. This way, Bullard noted, the Fed can grapple with the second consecutive year of red-hot inflation. Ultimately, according to Bullard, the benchmark interest rate needs to climb above 2 percent to curb prices. His colleagues aren’t in agreement with these policy recommendations. Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans told a New York conference hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business that long-term inflation in the United States will be low. With this in mind, Evans isn’t advocating substantial rate increases, although he believes the Fed “requires a substantial
repositioning of monetary policy.” Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester stated that a faster pace of rate increases would be more reasonable than a half-point adjustment. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin rejected the premise that a significant rate boost is needed to curtail rampant inflation. Although Bullard noted that his case for 100 basis points by July 1 isn’t what the central bank needs to do, he does say the Fed needs to get started on rates to rein in inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is penciling in a quarter-point boost at the two-day FOMC meeting in March. But while the minutes from the January rate-setting committee meeting show that officials are ready to expand their quantitative tightening efforts by shrinking the balance sheet and raising rates, market analysts warn that this could trigger a slowdown in the post-pandemic economy. Several institutions and organizations are anticipating tepid GDP growth in the first quarter. The Atlanta Fed Bank’s GDPNow model suggests real GDP change is projected to climb 1.3 percent. If accurate, this would be down from the 6.9 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2021. The St. Louis Fed Nowcast is prognosticating a GDP headline of 1.55 percent in the January-to-March period. Wells Fargo expects a GDP reading of less than 2 percent, while the Conference Board is anticipating 2 percent. The consensus is that economic growth will be weaker in the current quarter than in the previous one. Would a slowing economy give pause to a tightening acceleration, despite red-hot inflation? This might be the next major debate for Fed policymakers. I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 47
DANIEL LACALLE is chief economist at hedge fund Tressis and author of “Freedom or Equality,” “Escape from the Central Bank Trap,” and “Life in the Financial Markets.”
Daniel Lacalle
China’s Property Crash Worsens The collapse in investor confidence is difficult to contain
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The surprise announcement of credit risk from Zhenro Properties highlights the extent of the risks that have accumulated in the Chinese real estate sector. When we look at the bursting of real estate bubbles in Sweden, Spain, Japan, Iceland, and other economies, the process always starts with the message that one default is an anecdote and continues with the realization that the allegedly safest companies suffer from similar problems of excessive leverage and weak cash flow generation. As I mentioned in September 2021, many Chinese companies follow the “running to stand still” strategy of piling on ever-increasing debt to compensate for poor cash flow generation and weak margins. Many promoters get into massive debt to build a promotion that either isn’t sold or is left with many unsold units, then they finance that debt by adding more credit for new projects using unsaleable or already leveraged assets as collateral. China’s real estate sector is enormous. Its direct and indirect weight, according to JPMorgan, is 25 percent
of GDP, more than double the size of previous real estate bubbles in Japan or Spain. It’s impossible for the Chinese regime to contain the implosion of a sector that has massive ramifications that affect all of the services sector and numerous side industries. The Chinese regime tries to disguise the risk by injecting liquidity into Chinese banks and cutting rates, but even if the vast majority of the property developers’ debt is in the hands of domestic savers, the collapse in investor confidence is difficult to contain. At best, the Chinese economy will see an inevitable slowdown. In the worst-case scenario, the implosion of the real estate sector may cause a large hole in the national banks’ assets that may need the largest bailout in modern times. The outcome may lie somewhere in between. Many sectors in China may continue to thrive regardless of the property slump, but none of them, even all combined, can offset the impact of such a dominant part of the Chinese economy. Chinese property developers need to repay or refinance up to $100 billion in debt in 2022, according to Bloomberg. It isn’t difficult to predict that at least half will default, surpassing 2021’s record figure. Additionally, global and domestic demand for the largest Chinese sectors is weakening because of expectations of more government crackdowns in 2022. The combination of increasing government interventionism with the rising concern about the financial situation of debt issuers may be insurmountable for the Chinese economy. Repeating failed Keynesian demand-side policies isn’t the answer. China needs to open its economy and abandon a debt-fueled model.
NOEL CELIS/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
f e w m o n t h s ag o, when investors started to discuss the troubles of Evergrande, China’s largest real estate developer, many economists saw the problem as isolated and insignificant. The consensus message was that the real estate crisis was containable and that the Evergrande default would be a single case. However, Chinese defaults on local and overseas bonds rose to a record $43 billion in 2021, according to Bloomberg, led by widespread defaults in the real estate sector. Until recently, the bonds of Zhenro Properties Group were seen as safe, and the company was widely perceived as a rare case of balance sheet strength in a troubled sector. Unfortunately, the reality was significantly different, and the company warned that it might not meet its credit obligations. The surprise announcement of credit risk from Zhenro Properties highlights the extent of the risks that have accumulated in the Chinese real estate sector, with a bubble of enormous proportions that’s bursting slowly and creating ripple effects on the rest of the economy. In my article “China’s problems are larger than Evergrande,” I already mentioned that the distressed property giant wasn’t an anecdote, but a symptom of a model based on leveraged growth and seeking to inflate gross domestic product (GDP) at any cost, including ghost cities, unused infrastructure, and wild construction. The indebtedness chain model of Evergrande isn’t uncommon in China, and Zhenro shows that even those developers that were perceived as relatively more prudent are, in fact, in a similarly dire situation. This “surprise” isn’t uncommon.
Fan Yu
FAN YU is an expert in finance and economics and has contributed analyses on China’s economy since 2015.
The Metaverse, With Chinese Characteristics The CCP is unlikely to loosen its grip over free speech in the virtual world
PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
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hina’s technology giants are beginning to invest in the metaverse, and Beijing is readying its state-controlled censorship and regulatory gatekeepers. There’s no definitive description of the metaverse (sometimes referred to as Web3), but it’s a term loosely used to describe computer-generated virtual worlds where people can live, play, and interact with others: a more interactive, 3D version of the internet. Software giants such as Facebook parent Meta Platforms and Microsoft as well as hardware developers such as Nvidia have been investing in the sector believing the metaverse to be the next frontier in internet and gaming. In China, the arms race is just beginning. Morgan Stanley analysts believe the Chinese metaverse total addressable market to be $8 trillion, in a February note to clients. That’s roughly the size of the same market in the United States. Mobile game-maker NetEase, social app-maker ByteDance, and social media and payments conglomerate Tencent are some of the early leaders in Chinese metaverse development. Internet giant Baidu has also been developing its own metaverse virtual platform. But the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s tight-fisted grip over media, free speech, and politics is unlikely to loosen in the virtual world. And this makes China’s metaverse a bit of a different animal. “After the regulatory reset in 2021, the government’s increasing focus on minors’ addiction, personal information protection, data security, openness of ecosystem, and so on suggests higher regulatory hurdles in China,” Morgan Stanley analysts say. Last year, the CCP formed the socalled Metaverse Industry Committee chaired by state-owned telecom giant
There’s a broader opportunity for the CCP to continue its censorship, monitoring, and control of its population through the metaverse. China Mobile, to establish rules and regulations for the nascent sector. There are various other committees and working groups at the national and provincial levels. The metaverse’s association with the gaming and cryptocurrency sector— two areas that Beijing has recently cracked down on—means it’s a ripe area for the CCP to get involved in early and dictate what is and isn’t allowed within the virtual worlds. In many ways, those technology firms currently investing in the metaverse have already been neutered. During the past several months, various rules and regulations were introduced to curtail and control China’s technology giants. Those include anti-monopoly rules for internet platforms, a comprehensive personal data protection law, and in January new regulations governing the development of artificial intelligence (AI) and technology
“algorithms” were enacted. The last piece of legislation governing algorithms will tie into the CCP’s intention to censor content and speech on its metaverse platforms. The diversity and scale of the metaverse could make human monitoring of content impractical. Much of the content in the metaverse in the future could be generated and monitored by AI algorithms. Another sensitive subject overlapping with the metaverse is cryptocurrencies. Many metaverse applications being developed outside of China plan to use forms of cryptocurrency tokens in transactions, serving as a form of virtual currency for exchange. This is likely an issue for China, as the CCP has practically banned the usage, trading, and development of cryptocurrency tokens. Beijing has introduced its own digital currency, an electronic version of its yuan. Will the Party force metaverse builders to utilize the digital yuan as legal tender? It’s plausible. Meanwhile, the CCP has already sounded the alarm on aspects of the metaverse. A Feb. 18 memo from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission warned participants of certain entities marketing scams masquerading as legitimate Metaverse investment projects. There’s also a broader opportunity for the CCP to continue censorship, monitoring, and control of its population through the metaverse. The metaverse, being enclosed systems, is easier to monitor using technology tools than the real world, given China’s large swaths of land outside of cities, where street cameras are sparse and cell reception could be spotty. And given the metaverse’s somewhat loose definition, the Party can entangle virtually any scientific or technology venture into the metaverse’s sphere of regulation. I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 49
JEFF MINICK lives and writes in Front Royal, Va. He is the author of two novels, “Amanda Bell” and “Dust on Their Wings,” and two works of nonfiction, “Learning as I Go” and “Movies Make the Man.”
Jeff Minick
Humpty Dumpty ... and the Rest of Us Getting back on our feet after a hard fall is difficult, but not impossible
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here’s an old saying: “Dear God: Help me get up; I can fall down by myself.” Robert Redford’s film “Quiz Show” gives us the story of a man who fell hard. A young professor at Columbia University, Charles Van Doren gets the chance to appear on “Twenty-One,” a 1950s television quiz show. The producers have rigged the show, giving answers ahead of time to contestants they favor, and though Charlie at first resists playing along, he soon takes part in this fraud, wins contest after contest, and becomes a national celebrity. When a former contestant exposes this chicanery, Charlie is investigated by the Department of Justice and must testify before Congress about the scandal. Disgraced—across the land his name becomes synonymous with “cheater”— he loses a promising career in television and resigns from his teaching post. The movie concludes with him waving goodbye to a federal prosecutor. But that’s not where Van Doren’s life ended. As Stan Deaton writes in “Face Down in the Mud, A Life Redeemed,” family friend Mortimer Adler, University of Chicago scholar and editor of the Encyclopedia Britannica, offered Van Doren a position with that outfit. For the rest of his long life, Van Doren worked as an editor, reviewer, and author; his best-known book, “The Joy of Reading,” remains in print today. For more than 60 years, he lived in deliberate obscurity, publicly addressing the scandal only once, when in his old age he wrote about it for The New Yorker. Van Doren never forgot Adler’s generosity. Speaking at his friend and mentor’s funeral in 2001, Van Doren said, “There came a time when I fell down, face down in the mud, and he picked me up, brushed me off, and
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We have to dig within and find the strength and courage to climb out of the pit. gave me a job.” Odds are that many of us at some point have found ourselves face down in the mud as well. We may have caused that tumble, or someone else may have given us a push, but there we are. So how do we get to our feet again? Willpower is crucial. We have to dig within and find the strength and courage to climb out of the pit. But four fundamentals—faith, family, friends, and forgiveness—can also be a tremendous help. During a horrible year of rancorous office politics and misunderstandings, one young woman I know leaned on her faith and got through the ordeal. She is as devout a Christian as you’ll ever meet. Another woman of my acquaintance, devastated by the desertion of her husband, recovered her spirits through the tender care of her grown children. Another acquaintance who committed a terrible wrong is on his feet today
in large part because of the wise counsel and encouragement of a friend. As for forgiveness—the ability to forgive ourselves and others is the key to any such retrieval of self-dignity and self-worth. Forgiveness can’t change the past—what’s done is done—but it can certainly transform the present and the future. And then there’s love, the cornerstone of these fundamentals. In 1965, singer Jackie DeShannon, and later Dionne Warwick, sang the hit song, “What the World Needs Now.” It opens with these words: “What the world needs now is love, sweet love “It’s the only thing that there’s just too little of ...” Sappy? Perhaps. But those sentiments take on real meaning when a friend or family member is taking a beating. As Mortimer Adler did for Charles Van Doren, we can reach out to them, give them a hand up, and help them move forward again. And who knows? Someday, when like Humpty Dumpty you’ve “had a great fall,” that person you helped put back together might be able to do just the same for you.
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Nation Profile
THOUGHT LEADERS
The American People Versus A Tyrannical Elite Author Walter Kirn discusses the approach of lockdown and mandate leaders: ‘Reality is what I say it is’ e sit squarely in the middle of an absurdist drama,” Walter Kirn says.
In this episode of “American Thought Leaders,” host Jan Jekielek and author and journalist Kirn discuss lockdowns, mandates, and the frightening possibility of a union between Orwellian tyranny and the soft totalitarianism of Aldous Huxley’s “Brave New World.” JAN JEKIELEK: People keep
sending me your new essay, “The Power and the Silence.” WALTER KIRN: That essay
came from an anecdote told to me by a former president of a major U.S. bank. He was in a tournament at Warren Buffet’s golf course on the morning of 9-11-2001. Warren had a rule that cellphones were not allowed to disturb the golf tournament. When the news of 9/11 caused those phones to ring, the CEOs and celebrities snuck away to learn that the Towers had fallen in New York. But so cowed were they by Warren’s ban on cellphones, they couldn’t show their reactions to this attack. Their fear of displeasing Warren, their business superior, was greater than their need to react to an emergency. I used 52 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
that anecdote to illustrate the point that pleasing those who have power over us seems the most prominent social instinct in people. I think that explains a lot about human behavior, especially lately. The disasters and difficulties people are facing in this COVID era are inconvenient to the state because the line coming from the top is “we’ve got this handled,” or “the vaccines are working,” or “lockdowns have no cost.” People tend to yield to those lines of command and propaganda and suppress their own observations. MR . JEKIELEK: There’s also
some portion of the population that seems to enthusiastically support whatever these decrees are, and in a cruel way, to vilify the people who aren’t participating. MR . KIRN: Time and again
during COVID we’ve created scapegoats. Before the vaccines, before the scapegoats were the unvaccinated, it was the people who were reluctant to wear masks or the people who were keeping their businesses open. At every step, we’ve been asked to blame someone rather than those above us for the pandemic and the toll it’s taken.
MR . JEKIELEK: You described
this whole thing as a drama. MR . KIRN: If we confine it to
the last couple of years, the drama consists of a hidden enemy suddenly showing itself with powers not yet comprehended, which forces us into a defensive position personally, professionally, and politically. And then we are directed to do various things to protect ourselves which become more and more absurd. If you mask, they tell us, you’ll be out of the pandemic. If you distance yourselves, if you stay in your homes, if you take the vaccine, if you take the booster. Every one of these commandments led to a new surge of hope. Then came a crashing wave of disappointment. We’ve gone from a dark tragic drama to a dark tragic farce. We sit squarely in the middle of an absurdist drama where the common sense ways of taking care of yourself and treating diseases with medicines became forbidden. You do everything but what you used to do when you got an airborne virus. I really think we’re in the grips of some sort of capricious monster. MR. JEKIELEK: By monster,
you’re not referring to any one person, but some emergent
Nation Profile
“Time and again during COVID, we’ve created scapegoats. At every step, we’ve been asked to blame someone rather than those above us for the pandemic and the toll it’s taken.” Walter Kirn, author and journalist.
property. Is that what you’re thinking?
from anything that we formerly believed was sanity.
MR . KIRN: An emergent
MR . JEKIELEK: Well, you’re
property would be an academic way to describe a hydra-headed bureaucracy, which includes supporting characters like Bill Gates. We’ve got Gates, we’ve got Fauci, Walensky, the WHO, all of these authority figures operating pretty much in a coordinated fashion. One common feature of this group is amnesia. Throughout COVID, they’ve asked us to take as gospel a series of contradictory directives showing little awareness of the recent past.
grounded in some reality. You’re out in rural Montana.
MR . JEKIELEK: It’s almost
like we’re losing touch with reality.
JACK WANG/THE EPOCH TIMES
MR . KIRN: Reality in the West is, supposedly, the foundation of our intellectual investigations. Science is classically defined as the exercise of experimentation and hypothesis in pursuit of deeper awareness of the real. Political science, however, seems to be more and more about the construction of an alternative reality. Sometimes I feel like these Fauci-like bureaucrats and some of these blowhard politicians are saying, “Reality is what I say it is.” They’re starting to diverge
MR . KIRN: Living in a small
town in Montana does put me in touch with a variety of people. A small town is really a laboratory in pragmatism and getting things done. The business of a small town is surviving, and that’s the business of America for the most part. The hardware store owner I know, the plumbing and heating guy, the truck driver, are reality-based. They’re making sure that their business can meet payroll, that they can pay their child’s tuition, and so on. MR . JEKIELEK: One of the
consequences of pandemic policy has been a transfer of massive wealth to the wealthiest in the world and a huge cost to the working class and perhaps the middle class. MR . KIRN: The wealth transfer
has been immense. The numbers of new billionaires and the extent to which those 15 top billionaires quadrupled or multiplied their wealth has now been calculated. The rich got richer, and they got richer I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 53
Nation Profile
“Throughout COVID, they’ve asked us to take as gospel a series of contradictory directives showing little awareness of the recent past.” faster than ever before. MR . JEKIELEK: Are we
living closer to “1984” or to “Brave New World?” Is it Orwell or Huxley? MR . KIRN: In “1984,” which
was a transfer of Stalin’s Russia to post-war England, the great reigning feature is austerity to the point of grim shortages, and people huddled in unheated apartments. Big Brother and the Ministry of Truth rule through fear and deception. In the Huxleyan vision, rule is conducted through anesthesia. People conform and comply with the government through the use of
amusement, entertainment, and drugs that cause euphoria or chemical gratification. In “1984,” the people are scared. In Huxley’s “Brave New World,” they’re asleep or caught up in trivial gratification. In our present predicament, I see a merger of these two visions. We are anesthetized by TikTok, by illegal and pharmaceutical drugs, by Hollywood, by news as entertainment. On the other hand, to give the Orwell position, we are also afraid. So, between the stick of Orwell and the drugged carrot of Huxley, we are, I think, much more complacent and more manipulable
than we used to be. MR . JEKIELEK: On
Twitter, you recently wrote, “My greatest fear right now is a perfect storm is in the offing, and not on the people’s timeline.” What did you mean? MR . KIRN: That came from
an intuitive sense that the convergence of crises and emergencies over the last couple of years has become almost overwhelming. We’re seeing vast numbers of people suffering from depression and drug abuse. People are not going back to work. There’s COVID and inflation. We’re about to add international conflict, whether in Ukraine or in a Chinese move on Taiwan, I don’t know, but I fear we are one or two crises away from a paralysis. Meanwhile, Biden’s popularity plummets, yet he never changes course. Why are they so content to see the crises pile up? Why are they not acting to moderate the stresses on society? Instead, they’re talking about insurrection and threats
of domestic terrorism in advance of anything really happening. They’re turning up the fear. They’re turning up the apprehension. We have Bill Gates saying, “Wait for the next pandemic.” That’s ominous to me. To create some situation so that they can launch their Great Reset or hatch their plan for a new order doesn’t seem out of the realm of the possible. MR . JEKIELEK: So let’s do
the flip side here. You once said to me, “I absolutely allow for wishful thinking.” MR . KIRN: I allow myself
to imagine what I hope will happen. We can’t write the script for recovery or for normalcy without wishful thinking, without a beacon. Conservative thinkers often speak in terms of return to a past golden age, but I think it’s time they tried to picture not a paradise, but a better world, and start to lead by attraction and appeal rather than by scolding and criticism. The situation we’re in has created a lot of distressed souls who are waiting for something nourishing and optimistic. What I hope for is a new embrace of America’s unruly, tumultuous, truly democratic spirit. The answers are to be found among one another, not by turning on the television.
People practice social distancing in white circles during the COVID-19 pandemic, in Brooklyn's Domino Park, in New York on May 17, 2020. 54 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
JOHANNES EISELE/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.
2
T R AV E L • F O O D • L U X U R Y L I V I N G
Unwind
No.09
Take the Hana Highway on Maui’s North Shore to experience a unique Hawaii not seen by most visitors. PHOTO BY TOR JOHNSON/HAWAII TOURISM AUTHORITY
Hawaii’s Garden of Eden LUSH GROUNDS, an adjoining forest, and easy access to the sights and sounds of Cannes give this spacious and inviting villa the best of everything. 56
THE EXPLOSION OF ONLINE services now includes shopping for and buying a vehicle. The internet allows you to find your dream vehicle from the comfort of home. 60
58
SINCE ITS DISCOVERY in 2727 B.C., tea has become the favored drink of millions, with these exotic varieties at the top of the list. 66
INSIDE I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 55
A HAVEN OF PRIVACY in a Forested Setting
Set in the serene countryside, this luxurious villa is just a short drive from the excitement of Cannes By Phil Butler 56 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
The use of fine materials, furnishings, vibrant colors, and connectedness to the lush outdoors serves to further differentiate the home.
Lifestyle Real Estate
T
COURTESY OF THE OWNER & CARLTON INTERNATIONAL
his c h a r m ing a nd spac ious French residence, located just minutes from Cannes and Nice, exudes priceless privacy and charm. The Italian-style villa offers unobstructed views of the lush countryside and the championship golf course adjacent to the property, as well as quite a bit more, for the list price of 3,600,000 euros ($4.8 million). Situated on 5,000 square meters (1.24 acres) of manicured grounds, this wonderful 246-square-meter (2,648-square-foot) home has four luxurious bedrooms and five baths, including a master bedroom with ensuite amenities. Built with entertaining in mind, the house has spacious living spaces, a professional kitchen, a formal dining room, a library, and a reading salon that echo its provincial heart. Outside, lush gardens wrap around a sparkling swimming pool, pool house, shower area, barbeque/kitchen, and an alfresco dining terrace. Olive and palm trees and a wide variety of provincial plants unite the estate with the adjacent nature park and one of the most
highly regarded golf courses in France. Situated inside a gated community with private security outside the idyllic Mougins village, the villa features a state-of-the-art automation system, electric shutters and blinds, underfloor heating, air conditioning, garden lighting, and an electric front gate. One of the most popular places to visit on the Côte d’Azur, Mougins, world-famous for its culinary offerings, is located in the forested heights overlooking Cannes, in the Grasse district. This wonderful village is surrounded by wooded headlands, including the Valmasque Forest. All around, there are tall pines, rich olive groves, and majestic cypress trees. The little town is also a key center for classical and performing arts, with attractions such as the Musée d’Art Classique de Mougin, the Le Lavoir (Washhouse), and the “Scène 55” cultural space, just to name a few. Phil Butler is a publisher, editor, author, and analyst who is a widely cited expert on subjects ranging from digital and social media to travel technology.
MOUGINS, FRANCE 3,600,000 EUROS ($4.8 MILLION) • 4 BEDROOMS • GATED COMMUNITY • GOLF COURSE AND COUNTRYSIDE VIEWS KEY FEATURES • IDEALLY LOCATED OUTSIDE MOUGINS • ULTIMATE QUIET AND PRIVACY • TUSCAN-STYLE DESIGN AGENT CARLTON INTERNATIONAL EMAIL: INFO@CARLTONGROUP.COM +33 493 95 1111
This wonderful Tuscan-style villa is tucked into one of France’s most beautiful national parks, only a stone’s throw from the Cote d'Azur and the French Riviera’s most iconic landmarks. To describe the villa as an entertainment “show place” is an understatement. Wherever you look, fine art blends seamlessly into the home’s other design features.
The property offers the owners and their guests uncompromising privacy and security, as well as an overwhelming atmosphere of welcome and luxury. I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 57
Travel Hawaii
An aerial view of the road to Hana.
The Road to Hana
With narrow lanes and 600 twists and turns, it is a challenging but deeply rewarding drive By Tim Johnson
S
tretching a total of 64 miles, Hana Highway transports you to another version of Hawaii, a long way from the poolside deck chairs of Kapalua. Along the way, you’ll pass through thick tropical forest, skirting blacksand beaches, seaside cliffs, and waterfalls. While Hana is worth the drive, the pleasure is in the journey—as you steer down Hawaii Routes 36 and 360, you’ll wind through more than 600 curves and pass over 46 one-lane bridges.
The Beginning Coming from the hotels of West Maui or Wailea, you’ll approach the beginning of Hana Highway along a four-lane highway, passing the island’s main gateway, the international airport at Kahului. A few miles beyond, the 58 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
road now narrowed to two lanes, you’ll arrive in Paia—“busy town” in the local language. It’s a former hippie hotspot and home to one of Maui’s best surf breaks, creating massive waves that roll onto the white sand of Paia Bay (feel free to stop—all beaches in Hawaii are public and free to access, if you can find a parking place). This small village serves some of the island’s best seafood at Mama’s Fish House. A homey place set among swaying palm trees just past the main four corners in town, this restaurant even has its own dock so fishermen can pull right up to the back and unload the day’s freshest catch. While you’re just beginning your drive, you would be well-justified to tarry in Paia for a while—tuck into some ahi tuna or mahi-mahi with a mai-tai to wash it down, your table facing out to the Pacific and those sultry trade
PAIA
MAUI HANA
Hana Highway stretches 64 miles between Paia and Hana.
Travel Hawaii winds keeping you cool. If you find that you’re done for the day, Mama’s also has a few spacious rooms on-site where you can rest—and wait until morning to face those curves.
Mile Marker 2: Into the Canopy and Twin Falls Rolling across the lower flanks of the Haleakala Volcano, soon the landscape begins to change dramatically from wide-open vistas to dense, tropical forest. If you’re already ready for a stop, park your car in the lot at Mile Marker 2 and take a hike (and a dip, if you like) in the pools and cascades that form Twin Falls, which run along two forks, the Ho’olawa li’ili’i (little stream) and Ho’olawa nui (big stream), cutting through the jungle and forming perfect tropical swimming holes below clear, clean, tumbling water.
FROM TOP L: KELLY HEADRICK/SHUTTERSTOCK, SHUTTERSTOCK, RAPHAEL RIVEST/SHUTTERSTOCK, TOR JOHNSON/HAWAII TOURISM AUTHORITY
Mile Marker 10: Garden of Eden Arboretum The Garden of Eden arboretum is an interesting place even for those who don’t love botanical gardens—a lush paradise with more than 700 labeled plant species, many of them were donated by the late George Harrison (the famous one, from The Beatles), who lived nearby and had a green thumb. Walk the 2.5 miles of paths, enjoy the ocean views, and ask the staff for the story behind Alan Bradbury, a musician and arborist— and the passionate creator of the arboretum.
Mile Marker 17: Halfway to Hana Although it will feel like you’re early into the drive, the halfway point comes quickly—at a classic snack bar called Halfway to Hana. Park and take a pit stop, picking up some of the island’s favorite treats. In addition to the standard fare, such as cheeseburgers and hot dogs, you can top up on shave ice (Hawaii’s version of a snow cone—they have 13 different flavors), as well as
A lava tube leads to the ocean on Black Sand Beach in Waianapanapa State Park.
the best banana bread you’ll find along the way.
Mile Marker 31: Hana Lava Tube Once a place of great heat and turmoil, molten lava poured through this underground passage, forming today’s tunnel (the oldest of its kind on the island) and leaving its flow patterns fossilized on the walls. Drive four miles off the main highway (up Ulaino Road), pay a small fee to enter the cavern, descend the steps, and take a self-guided tour into this natural tunnel, which will transport you to the volcanic times in which Maui was born. Bring your own flashlight, and walk around the garden maze afterward.
Mile Marker 32: Wai’anapanapa State Park At this state park, black sand meets blue water. Walk the dark pebbles on the volcanic beach, visit an ancient temple, spot sea stacks, and look out on the ocean for the natural stone arch. If you brought your bathing suit, this is an excellent time to wade into the Pacific Ocean.
Mile Marker 34: Hana Town Not so far from the rest of Maui, but a world away from busy, touristy Hawaii, Hana is sleepy, charming, and personal, a place that feels like home on the far side of the island. (Local shops encourage this image, selling T-shirts billing the village as “Far from Waikiki.”) While the Hana Highway can be driven round-trip in a single day, it’s worth staying at least one night there. A number of super-local hotels and cottages offer no-frills accommodation, or you can go luxe at Hyatt’s Hana-Maui Resort, a series of ocean-facing, hillside rooms and residences surrounding a big pool.
25 MPH
is the average speed limit, though the highway is only 52 miles long.
If You Go When to Go: Hawaii is great year-round. Getting There: It takes 2 1/2 hours to drive to Hana, but it’s best to take a full day. Planning: Stay aware of weather patterns. You likely won’t be able to stop at every highlight on the road, so plan which stops you want to make in advance. Also, make sure to fill up on gas in Paia—there are no gas stations between there and Hana. Tours: If you’d rather not drive, consider tour companies, which offer expert guides. A helicopter tour is also an option.
Tim Johnson is based in Toronto. He has visited 140 countries across all seven continents.
An old church along the Hana Highway.
I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 59
CLICK AND DRIVE
Buy Your Dream Car Online
With just a few clicks, you can find and purchase even the most exotic cars by ‘e-visiting’ sellers around the globe By Bill Lindsey 60 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
Lifestyle Driving for Deals
LEFT PAGE: PHOTO BY DENNIS DURNE/SHUTTERSTOCK; RIGHT PAGE FROM TOP: COLIN ANDERSON PRODUCTIONS PTY LTD/GETTY IMAGES, ILLUSTRATION BY THE EPOCH TIMES (IMAGE CREDIT: SHUTTERSTOCK, GETTY IMAGES)
By simplifying and streamlining the purchasing process, you can focus on enjoying the vehicle.
t this point, it’s safe to say you can buy and have delivered pretty much anything online—including a haircut. In addition to access to an incredibly vast knowledge base, the internet has forever changed our lives by providing instant connections to individuals and groups around the world. As just one example, it has become increasingly easy to purchase a vehicle online, but there are a few things to know and consider before you hit the “Click to Buy” button. Why buy a car online? There are many reasons to purchase a vehicle online, with a major one being convenience. Most car dealerships have their current inventory available for review 24/7 via their websites, rain or shine. You can look at the cars are on the lot, usually from more than just one angle, and review specific information about the vehicle, such as mileage and how it’s equipped. In many cases, if you don’t see what you want, you can place a special order, all without leaving the couch. If one dealer is unable to fill your needs, there are many others to choose from; entering the
make, model, and year of the vehicle desired into a search engine will usually result in many “hits” of other websites with that vehicle. The main limitation is the current availability of the vehicle desired, regardless of whether it’s new or preowned. A brand-new 2022 Chevy Corvette or Ford Bronco may be tough to find compared to another new model for which the demand is lower. Widening the search to a low-mileage preowned model of the desired vehicle might allow you to find one sooner. For various reasons, new cars are in short supply, making a pre-owned model worth considering. As a bonus, buying pre-owned might allow you to avoid the depreciation that reduces the value of a car compared to the original purchase price, unless the car is in incredibly high demand. If the search includes preowned vehicles, use specific keywords for location, color, mileage, and must-have options such as a particular engine or a coupe versus a convertible in order to narrow the results. When reviewing the candidates, consider sorting them by location, from nearest to farthest away,
If one dealer is unable to fill your needs, there are many others to choose from.
I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 61
Lifestyle Driving for Deals
LIFESTYLE
MOUSING FOR CARS
Find your next car by shopping online.
(Top) If you purchase a car many states away, car transport companies can deliver it right to your driveway. (Bottom) Shopping on the internet is perhaps the most efficient way to locate and purchase rare, exotic cars.
62 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
in case something about the car is materially different than what you agreed to purchase. If the seller is an independent car lot in your state or across the country, it too should be able to offer some type of guarantee you’ll get what you expected, but consider having an attorney review the documents before you pay. Now you’ve found the perfect car and have agreed to a price, but it’s halfway across the country; how do you get it? One option is to travel to the car’s location and drive it home. However, if driving it home isn’t possible, many auto dealers and resellers can arrange to have a vehicle shipped to you at your expense. While there are services that arrange for someone to drive the car to you, a commercial auto transporter is preferable for most. If you purchase from an individual, you can hire a car transporter using an 18-wheeler truck and trailer specifically designed to transport vehicles. To hire a car transporter, do an internet search and check references and reviews carefully. Both open and covered transporters are available. A covered transport will cost more than an open transporter, but the extra cost may be a good investment, as it provides more protection for the vehicle.
Shop on the Couch Manufacturer websites allow you to purchase new vehicles. If your dream vehicle is a preowned model, specialized websites like CarMax or AutoTrader can help you find it.
2 Check Under the Hood If the vehicle you want is too far away to test drive it, arrange to have a comprehensive prepurchase inspection performed by a local shop.
3 Arrange Financing in Advance
With a loan in place in advance, you’re a “cash buyer” and able to act quickly when you find your dream vehicle. Add in any related costs as appropriate, such as a PPI and cross-country transport.
CLOCKWISE FROM TOP: SUNDRY PHOTOGRAPHY/SHUTTERSTOCK, THE EPOCH TIMES, COURTESY OF PAGANI
as well as condition and price. For local vehicles, a test drive and an in-person inspection is a must. CarMax, will, for a fee, ship a car to their store located closest to you to allow you to inspect it in person before you agree to purchase it. For vehicles that are located far away, consider arranging for a local mechanic or shop that isn’t related to the seller, or a trusted, knowledgeable friend or family member to perform a pre-purchase inspection (PPI) of all mechanical, electrical, interior, and exterior aspects of the vehicle. A thorough PPI is strongly encouraged when buying any pre-owned vehicle to avoid unpleasant surprises. Unless you’re seeking a car in high demand, buying online might allow you to get a better deal than buying from a local seller. However, this isn’t always true, as several online retailers don’t allow price negotiations, instead stating a “no-haggle” price. When purchasing from an individual via AutoTrader, Bring a Trailer, Facebook Marketplace, or other internet sources, negotiation is almost always encouraged and expected. So you’ve found several vehicles to consider, but they’re all far away, what now? The answer depends in part on the seller. If the seller is a car dealership or another recognized, reputable online retailer, you should be able to rely on them to provide an accurate description and assessment of the vehicle. Regardless, it’s always a good idea to make sure you have recourse, just
1
Luxury Living Watches for Land & Sea
DIVE WATCHES: ON TIME IN THE BOARD ROOM OR BENEATH THE WAVES Originally created for use in the 1930s by military divers needing to keep track of how long they’d been submerged, dive watches have since become one of the most popular watch styles because of their adventurous looks and rugged reliability. By Bill Lindsey
The Iconic Dive Watch
Reporting for Duty
ROLEX SUBMARINER DATE
BREITLING SUPEROCEAN AUTOMATIC 44 OUTERKNOWN
$10,600
PHOTOS COURTESY OF NOVE, ROLEX, BREITLING, ULYSSEE NARDIN, DOXA
Introduced in 1953 and worn by James Bond in four movies, including “Dr. No” and “Thunderball,” the distinctive unidirectional elapsed time bezel and bracelet make this perhaps the most recognizable and imitated dive watch. It is available in stainless steel, two-tone stainless steel and gold, as well as yellow gold, and white gold.
Dirk Pitt’s Watch
DOXA SUB 600T $1,450
Fans of Clive Cussler novels will recognize this as the timepiece worn by Dirk Pitt. Based on the original 600T, it can be customized by a steel or black bezel insert, a stainless steel or rubber bracelet, and enough other options to allow 24 variations.
$4,150
A partnership with pro surfer Kelly Slater’s Outerknown brand created this brawny timepiece. Intended for use in extreme conditions, it’s secured in place by a strap made from recycled fishing nets, with the dark green dial accented by large, easily read, highly luminous hour marks.
Clearly Innovative
ULYSSE NARDIN DIVER X $24,300
Equipped with standard dive watch features of a uni-directional bezel, high-vis hands, rubber strap, and extreme watertightness, this model stands out by means of a transparent dial providing a view of the movement in action.
A Reimagined Dive Watch
NOVE ATLANTEAN $690
This offering is loaded with impressive features such as a mesmerizing dial inspired by the ocean’s depths and a proprietary locking outer bezel system. A transparent rear case allows a view of the self-winding mechanism.
I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 63
Epoch Booklist
RECOMMENDED READING THRILLER
‘The Quiet American’
By Graham Greene
Love, Espionage, and Betrayal As French colonialism crumbles, Alden Pyle, an idealistic CIA agent, believes the agency has Vietnam’s best interests at heart. Thomas Fowler, a foreign correspondent, works with Pyle until the agent’s policies result in violence and Fowler’s lover falls for Pyle. PENGUIN CLASSICS, 2004, 180 PAGES
This week, we dive into adventures from New England to England, and dig into the controversial relationship between American elites and Red China.
horse, Pegasus, and dog, Boccaccio. After bidding farewell to her brother and life on the farm, Helen sets off on a series of adventures with Mifflin as she learns the book trade and attempts to get Mifflin back to Brooklyn. “Parnassus” has remained in print for over a century because of Helen’s wit and verve, and her charming take on life. DOVER PUBLICATIONS, 2018, 304 PAGES
INVESTIGATIVE
‘Red-Handed’
By Peter Schweizer
CLASSICS
‘Parnassus on Wheels’
By Christopher Morley
Whimsical Adventure and a Rolling Bookshop When Roger Mifflin shows up with his wagon bookshop (named Parnassus), looking for a buyer, Helen McGill purchases this traveling shop along with the business’s
Big Help With a Little Bad Mouth In this intriguing and compelling read, investigative journalist Peter Schweizer shows that Beijing is more than happy to put up with mild criticism of its regime as long as the status quo remains the same. In “Red-Handed,” Schweizer presents the reader with his most alarming findings to date, revealing a web of complicity from America’s wealthiest elites who, in a variety of scenarios, are helping to build up China’s military, as well as technological and economic prowess on the world stage. HARPER, 2022, 352 PAGES
64 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
Are there books you’d recommend? We’d love to hear from you. Let us know at features@epochtimes.com
YOUNG ADULT
‘Britf ield & The Rise of the Lion’
By C.R. Stewart
Great Escapes With Great Friends The Britfield youngadult adventure series is a blend of C.S. Lewis and Dan Brown. C.R. Stewart has created an exhilarating world where two young orphans, Tom and Sarah, are constantly on the run from those who wish them harm. After having escaped England in the series debut, now “Britfield” moves to France. These YA books are fast-paced, full of history and culture, and focus on courage and friendship. BRITFIELD, 2021, 489 PAGES
MEMOIR
‘Shmuel’s Bridge’
By Jason Sommer
A Story of Relational Bridges Jason Sommer’s debut book and Holocaust memoir “Shmu-
el’s Bridge: Following the Tracks to Auschwitz with my Survivor Father” is a heartfelt read with incredibly honest and poetic writing. In search of the bridge where his uncle, Shmuel, was killed, he connects the physical and emotional bridges that exist between fathers and sons. IMAGINE, 2022, 224 PAGES
HISTORY
‘The Splendid and the Vile’
FOR KIDS
‘Inch by Inch’ By Leo Lionni
A Lovable Classic This tale of an industrious inchworm who can measure almost anything is a classroom staple. When a hungry nightingale comes along, the inchworm uses his talent to avoid becoming lunch. Lionni’s simple story is sure to bring smiles. HARPERCOLLINS, 1995, 32 PAGES
By Erik Larson
Defiance During the Blitz Here, Larson brings to life Winston Churchill during the awful year when England stood alone against the Nazis. Particularly fascinating are his depictions of the Churchill family and their own personal struggles. In addition, he gives us portraits in miniature of the grit and bravery of ordinary Britains who endured economic hardship and a horrific, relentless bombing campaign. As we learn how Churchill inspired these people in “the art of being fearless,” we’re reminded of the meaning and importance of true leadership. CROWN, 2020, 608 PAGES
‘The Penderwicks’
By Jeanne Birdsall
4 Sisters, 2 Rabbits, and an Interesting Boy The Penderwick sisters spend summer vacationing on a lovely New England estate. They go on adventures with a neighbor, Jeffrey, and rescue him from being forced to attend a school he despises. It’s an old-fashioned, charming tale. YEARLING, 2007, 288 PAGES
Ian Kane is a U.S. Army veteran, filmmaker, and author. He enjoys the great outdoors and volunteering.
MOVIE REVIEWS
Epoch Watchlist
This week, we look at a disturbing chapter of Mexico’s anti-Catholic history and at a thriller shot entirely over the course of one night.
NEW RELEASE
FAMILY PICK
The Mighty
(1998)
Nightride (2022 )
DR AMA | THRILLER
Taking place over the course of one night, protagonist Budge (Moe Dunford) has a crooked past, but is trying to leave the world of crime behind. He undertakes one last illicit deal to lay his hands on enough money to jumpstart a new business. But in doing so, he runs afoul of a vicious loan shark (Gerard Jordan). This thriller features a single-take approach, which makes the solid acting seem even more visceral, and steadily ratchets up the palpable tension. The lack of cuts makes everything seem more immediate and realistic.
Release Date: March 4, 2022 Director: Stephen Fingleton Starring: Moe Dunford, Joana Ribeiro, Gerard Jordan Running Time: 1 hour, 37 minutes MPAA Rating: Not Rate Where to Watch: Theaters
HISTORICAL DRAMA even when faced with seemingly insurmountable odds. It also features one of Henry Fonda’s best roles. DRAMA | HISTORY
The Fugitive (1947)
Based on a dark chapter of Mexico’s history when antiCatholic policies were enacted, the last remaining
priest (Henry Fonda) must leave the country or face dire consequences. This captivating historical drama carries the positive message of sticking to one’s convictions
Release Date: Nov. 3, 1947 Director: John Ford, Emilio Fernández Starring: Henry Fonda, Dolores del Rio, Pedro Armendáriz Running Time: 1 hour, 44 minutes Not Rated Where to Watch: Watch TCM, DirecTV, Apple TV
Based on author Rodman Philbrick’s book “Freak the Mighty,” this film tells the tale of Kevin Dillon (Kieran Culkin), a 12-yearold boy nicknamed “Freak” because of his physically disabling illness, and Maxwell Kane (Elden Henson), a 14-year-old with dyslexia, who become unlikely friends. Although this movie at first seems like yet another overly saccharine tear-jerker about misunderstood kids with disabilities fighting against social
discrimination, the strong performances by its able cast elevate it above being a schmaltz-fest. COMEDY | DR AMA
Release Date: Oct. 30, 1998 Director: Peter Chelsom Starring: Kieran Culkin, Elden Henson, Sharon Stone Running Time: 1 hour, 40 minutes MPAA Rating: PG-13 Where to Watch: Vudu, Redbox, Apple TV
HILARIOUS COMEDY
Liar Liar (1997) Jim Carrey stars as Fletcher Reede, an attorney who just can’t resist lying. After missing his son Max’s (Justin Cooper) birthday, Max makes his father promise to not tell any lies for an entire 24 hours—can Fletcher do it? Although this film’s plot is a little far-fetched, it more than makes up for it in one of Jim Carrey’s most impressive (and underrated) roles to date. Overall, this is a good-spirited laugh-fest that, cou-
pled with a brilliant script, makes the most out of its silly storyline. COMEDY | FANTASY
Release Date: March 21, 1997 Director: Tom Shadyac Starring: Jim Carrey, Maura Tierney, Amanda Donohoe Running Time: 1 hour, 26 minutes MPAA Rating: PG-13 Where to Watch: Vudu, Hulu, DirecTV
I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 65
Lovely Leaves:
EXOTIC TEAS FROM AROUND THE WORLD in the many years since tea leaves fell into Chinese Emperor Shennong’s cup of hot water in 2727 B.C., this beverage has become second only to water in worldwide consumption. Though tea was once used as currency, we prefer to drink it. By Bill Lindsey
Taste the Himalayas
NEPAL TEA CLUB
$25 for 2 samples per month at NepalTeaLLC.com Formed to increase awareness of and access to teas produced by family farms in eastern Nepal, this club sends members a featured tea every month, plus an exclusive, first-taste micro-lot tea, with enough to brew a total of 40 to 50 cups. A tea bush is also named after each member.
Kyoto’s Finest
IPPODO TEA CO. HOSEN, JAPAN
$26 for 80 grams at IppodoTea.com Ippodo, a family-run Kyoto tea company since 1717, suggests this sencha for those who are new to their teas. Made from leaves grown in Kyoto that are steamed rather than roasted, to preserve their color and flavor, the blend delivers a delightful aroma; the perfect balance of natural sweetness, umami, and astringency; and a mellow aftertaste.
The Champagne of Tea
A Family Legacy
$30 for 50 grams at Makaibari.com
$41 for 100 grams at NioTeas.com
MAK AIBARI SILVER TIPS IMPERIAL TEA, DARJEELING
NIO TEAS GYOKURO SASA HIME, JAPAN
When Mr. Sakamoto took over his family’s tea farm in Kagoshima Prefecture, he went 100 percent organic. He specializes in gyokuro, grown using a proprietary fertilizer of composted soybeans and sedimentary rock and shaded for three weeks before harvest, for a savory, umami flavor and a natural sweetness that delivers a smooth finish.
Thank You, Cicadas
Healthy Goodness
$12.99 for 4 ounces at TeaSource.com
$20 for 4 ounces at ArtofTea.com
TEA SOURCE ORIENTAL BEAUT Y OOLONG TEA, TAIWAN
Deep in the Pinglin district of Taiwan, every summer, tiny green leafhoppers—a cousin to cicadas—arrive to munch on these Tea Source tea leaves. Their bites initiate a unique chemical reaction, which, combined with the region’s soil and ideal growing conditions, results in a tea with a light body, a dark plum sweetness, and an aroma similar to spiced honey. 66 I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022
ART OF TEA TALI’S MASALA CHAI
The intoxicating aroma is second only to the pleasure experienced by a sip of this blend of organic Assam tea, cinnamon, ginger, cardamom, and other spices. Beyond the sensory delights, masala chai is said to be a source of antioxidants and can aid digestion.
FROM TOP L: COURTESY OF NEPAL TEA LLC, IPPODO TEA, NIO TEAS, ART OF TEA, TEASOURCE, MAKAIBARI
Produced for Queen Elizabeth II by the world’s first tea factory, the patented production method takes place at the foot of the Himalayan mountains under a full moon to ensure maximum moisture and flavor. Two leaves and one bud are selected from each bush to create the world’s most awarded organic Darjeeling tea.
Parenting Made a Bit Easier Raising kids is a daunting task, as how they turn out is largely up to you Remember when you were a kid and said, “When I have kids, I’ll raise them right”? OK, so now you have kids. It’s time to decide what mom and dad got right and what you might need to change when you do it. By Bill Lindsey
4 Help Them Develop Respect
1 Be There It sounds too simple to work, but showing your children they’re your top priority instills in them the confidence to explore their world, even if that’s only kindergarten class. You can demonstrate this by giving them your undivided attention and stopping what you’re doing to listen. If you promise to attend a recital or soccer game, show up on time. Let them know they can come to you anytime for any reason, and be happy when they do.
2
Be Open and Accepting
It’s likely that either your parents or those of friends might have been quick to offer negative comments about outfits, activities, friends, and pretty much everything else. It’s normal for kids to develop their own taste in friends and sense of style, all of which will change frequently. Unless the outfit is wildly inappropriate or the friends are 10 years older and clearly bad influences, take a deep breath and think back to when you did the same thing.
CSA IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES
The attitude of “my child is the most wonderful child ever and can do and have whatever he/she pleases with zero consequences” will, sooner or later, backfire. Nobody wants to be around an entitled child who expects everything to be handed to them. On a related note, let them work for their first car or a new snowboard or weekly allowance. A part-time job that doesn’t interfere with schoolwork is a timeproven technique for teaching children how to manage money and be responsible.
3
Have the Hard Conversations
It sounds great to be your child’s best friend, but one of the best ways to prepare them for the reality of the world is by helping them develop the ability to make proper decisions. This means having to broach subjects including sex, alcohol, and drugs. By paying attention to them and addressing questionable behavior, you may be able to keep them pointed in the right direction. A parent who wants to be their child’s friend might not risk telling the child “no,” even when that is the best advice.
5
Be a Good Role Model
Teaching by example would be one of the first things taught in Parenting 101, if there were such a course. Children are smart and most don’t miss a thing. If you’re preaching the evils of alcohol or drugs, yet have wild backyard parties every weekend, they’ll soon learn to disregard whatever you say. Teaching them by using your own mistakes as examples, with a clear explanation of how you resolved them, is a better way for them to learn to respect you and your suggestions.
I N S I G H T March 4–10, 2022 67
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