People walk past the New York Stock Exchange in the city’s financial district on June 26, 2017.
MIDTERMS 2022
ECONOMIC WOES PUSH GOP CANDIDATES AHEAD High consumer prices are giving Republicans more traction with voters By Dan M. Berger
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ecent polls show an increased likelihood of a “red wave” election, likely tied to voters settling on key issues that favor Republicans: the economy and inflation. Republican candidates have relentlessly tied both issues to the Biden administration and Democratic Party policies. Predictions early in 2022 favored the GOP taking a decisive congressional majority. Democrats retook momentum as social issues favoring them surged to prominence in the spring. The most notable was the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which established a constitutional right to an abortion for almost half a century. 18 E P O C H I N S I G H T Week 44, 2022
The issue galvanized many women, a significant segment of the Democratic base, and gave the party’s candidates something to rail at and rally around. So what happened? “The Dobbs decision is starting to play itself out. It’s a case of peaking too early,” said Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College in Salisbury, North Carolina. “Typically, midterm elections are referendums on the president and the president’s party, and when you have daily reminders at the gas pumps and grocery store, it’s hard to overcome.” Favoring abortion is, to some extent, already baked into both parties, he said. That means the Democrats stood
to gain few undecided voters because those who care deeply about abortion rights already vote for them. “The economy has not been improving,” said North Carolina Republican strategist Paul Shumaker. “And it’s not about gas prices. It’s about prices at the grocery store. “When gas went down in price, the inflation index did not decrease. It was due to consumer prices in the grocery store. They were more impactful. Everyone doesn’t have to drive, but they have to eat.” The decrease in gas prices led the Biden White House to try to message around that. “It was ... a diversion,” Shumaker said.
