Invest February 2013

EFG Asset Management

investment solutions monthly

China’s Ride The Reform Creates Renminbi Opportunities Roundabout New Capital China Equity Fund

Market & Macro Round-up

02 / 2013

CRO On The Go China Recovery Certificate

01/02

contents

02 03 05 06 07 09 10

Investment Solutions Looking for growth: Investing Ideas in China Market & Macro Round-Up Ride the Renminbi Roundabout Mutual Fund Selection Launch of EFGAM’s Funds Best Ideas Investment Spotlight New Capital China Equity Fund Hot Topic Look Outside the Border to Invest Inside China CRO On The Go China Recovery Certificate

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FGAM’s investment team would like to introduce the new title Invest: Investment Solutions Monthly. The new title comes with new content. The magazine will add the columns: Investment Solutions and CRO On The Go to its continuing coverage of macroeconomics and research. This issue concentrates on investment solutions related to China’s recovery and announces the launch of EFGAM’s Funds Best Ideas.

Moz Afzal, Chief Investment Officer

Question Time Tail Risk Solutions

EFGAM NEW CAPITAL FUNDS TAP INTO THE GROWING ASIAN CONSUMER MARKETS FOR GROWTH AND INCOME IN EQUITIES AND FIXED INCOME.

To find out more about our Asia investment capabilities contact your Client Relationship Officer.

The value of investments can go down as well as up and clients may get back less than they invest. Issued by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited.

EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered No.7389746. Registered address: EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, Leconfield House, Curzon Street, London W1J 5JB, United Kingdom, telephone +44 (0)20 7491 9111.

investment solutions monthly / 02 / 2013

Investment Solutions

Looking for growth:

Investing

China

in

I

Ideas

nvesting in 2013 isn’t going to be any easier than the previous year. In 2012, markets were resilient in the face of countless sources of uncertainty that seemed to emanate from all corners of the world.

There have been some recent resolutions with the US election and the election of Mario Draghi to head the European Central Bank. However, real interest rates are negative in many countries, government yields remain ultra low and growth, despite showing some signs of accelerating, is a scarce resource.

In that context, EFGAM’s main mission remains to identify investment solutions that can generate decent income and find attractive capital appreciation for our investors, while limiting the risk of a drawdown.

One of EFGAM’s key themes for 2013 is China’s recovery. Economic indicators continue to reinforce our view that Chinese growth has been recovering since the fourth quarter, after slowing for seven consecutive quarters. We see China’s economic recovery gaining momentum with economic reforms being the focus in the coming years. And Chinese assets are cheap; the Shanghai Composite index is trading at historically low levels in

both price-to-book and price-to-earnings values. We thus believe that the recovery of Chinese equities that started in November is just at the beginning of a larger upward trend.

So what are the best ways to play China’s recovery? One of the most direct ways to benefit from this theme is to buy Chinese equities through the New Capital China Equity Fund or one of the external funds from our recommended list (example: First State China Growth Fund). Another way to get exposure is to invest into different Asian assets that are all linked to China’s economy (examples: North Asian equity markets, Asian REITs, Asian Fixed Income, etc.). We also expect some stocks from developed markets to benefit from the China recovery. (See article on pages 7/8) Last but not least, investing into renminbi-denominated vehicles could further enhance your returns. In a world where China’s economic might is increasing while many developed world central banks are – intentionally or not – debasing their currencies, we view the prospects for the renminbi as favourable.

As always, we strive to adapt our set of solutions to the risk profile of our clients.

For our more conservative investors, we issued a three-year structured note which is exposed to the assets mentioned above but with full principal protection (in renminbi). (See article on page 9)

Your capital is at risk and you may not get back your original investment.

by Charles-Henry Monchau Head of Investments, Europe Geneva office

How to play China’s recovery?

1) China Equity funds 2) Asian assets linked to China’s economy (e.g.

Pan-Asian equities) 3) Developed markets stocks with high exposure to China 4) A structured note linked to a basket investing in these three themes in a diversified way

03/04

market & macro round-up

Ride

the Renminbi Roundabout I

by Daniel Murray Global Head of Research London office

n recent years, the Chinese renminbi has strengthened almost unremittingly with a 25% gain against the US dollar since 2005. There was a brief respite during the global financial crisis, when the Chinese authorities maintained a constant exchange rate versus the greenback over a period when the global economic backdrop was highly uncertain and fragile. Since then the Chinese authorities have faced regular attacks from US politicians accusing them of manipulating the currency to boost exports.

Then, last summer, the unexpected happened: the renminbi experienced a period of weakness, which lasted for several months. By the standards of any other free-floating currency the weakness was relatively modest, particularly for an emerging market. Nonetheless, the unusual nature of the move has led some to question whether or not this is the end of the line for further trend strength in China’s currency.

When currencies appreciate by a large amount over a prolonged period of time they will, ipso facto, be less competitive.

The question is: at what point does a currency shift from being undervalued to being fairly valued? As with almost all financial securities, there is no easy way to answer this. Even if we were able to establish a sensible estimate of where fair value lies, that would not guarantee that the fair value is ever reached. Nonetheless, we have found it instructive to consider the pressures on China’s currency according to a number of different metrics. The more of these metrics that are in agreement with each other, the greater the degree of confidence we have in terms of the anticipated strength and direction of any move.

investment solutions monthly / 02 / 2013

When countries run trade surpluses, the financial mechanics behind the flow of goods and services implies that foreigners are demanding more of that country’s currency than the inhabitants of the country are demanding of foreign currencies. This is a convoluted way of saying that there is pressure on the currency to appreciate. At an average of over $25 billion a month for the past six months, China’s trade surplus is below the levels reached in 2008/09 but still remains large. The size of a country’s foreign exchange reserves is a closely related concept. It provides an indication of a country’s ability to defend its currency and will, most likely, act as a deterrent to any attack in the first instance. China has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves, currently over $3.3 trillion. What also matters is the speed with which those reserves are changing. Here we find less support for the currency since the pace of Chinese reserve accumulation has slowed down considerably in recent months.

Another metric we have found useful is relative unit labour costs. This is hard to estimate because we need to take into account relative wages, relative productivity as well as the rate of change of these two

factors, none of which are readily available from easy-to-access and reliable data sources. When the gap between China’s unit labour costs and those in the US and other developed economies was very large this did not matter so much because we knew that there was still a strong incentive to outsource manufacturing to China. Now that Chinese relative wages have been growing so quickly at the same time as the exchange rate has been appreciating, that gap has narrowed. Indeed some companies are now relocating manufacturing facilities back to the developed world. The precise gap between manufacturing costs in China and those in other countries will vary by company and country and in some cases it would appear to have been closed completely. However we still believe that, on average, China remains a low cost manufacturing country and this would tend to support the currency.

The relative growth rate between two countries is also helpful when thinking about appropriate currency valuation, since it is associated with relative interest rates, bond yields and profit growth, all of which influence the flow of capital. Our view of the world is that, after three decades or so of double-digit growth, China’s trend growth

rate will slow from here although we do not expect it to collapse. Using the history of other developing economies as a guide provides us with a crude rule of thumb that we should expect trend Chinese growth to roughly halve over the next decade, although this will not happen over night. Even so, the Chinese economy will continue to grow much more rapidly than the developed world, which will encourage capital inflows.

Taking all these factors together suggests to us that there remains more room for the renminbi to appreciate. Add to these factors longer term support from indicators of purchasing power parity and net foreign assets and the case for the renminbi appears strong. The one constraining factor here is the fact that the currency is not free floating. While this should not detract from supportive fundamentals over the medium to long term, the more the currency is allowed to trade freely in international markets, the greater the propensity for a portion of onshore Chinese assets to try to find a home offshore. This is likely to add to currency volatility. However, with such supportive fundamentals we would view any short-term weakness as an opportunity to buy.

05/06

Mutual Fund Selection

by Andrew Harradine Head of Long Only Research London office

Launch of EFGAM’s (FBI) Funds Best Ideas

I

n February, EFGAM launched a new starranking system, FBI to further develop its fund recommendation capabilities.

The fund rankings use both the firm’s macroeconomic research and forecasting combined with the individual fund research expertise.

This brings a more holistic approach to fund selection.

Here’s how it works. There are currently 16 preferred funds that have been singled out for the Funds Best Ideas list. The 16 best idea funds are evaluated and ranked with a star system to better help Client Relationship Officers find the best fund for their investors. These funds originate from the 105 funds on EFGAMs Mutual Fund List. To show how much research has gone into the process, investors must note that we find the best 105 funds from a total universe of more than 40,000 funds. The overall top ranking for a portfolio on the Funds Best Ideas is five stars.

The first rating is a bottom up rating for the fund in isolation. We continue to examine the same fundamentals as before. We evaluate the fund’s team to make sure it is experienced and has depth and breadth; the stability of the firm and its risk management; the investment process to make sure it is sound and proven and of course, we check the

performance to make sure it works. The maximum stars for this rating is three.

The next rating is for the fund asset class category (example: US equities). A fund receives one additional star if it is aligned with EFGAM’s macro economic investment calls.

The third rating is for the fund’s style. We will appoint one additional star to a fund that we believe has a good investment style for the current market conditions.

Taking an example, the fund team has identified Sky Harbor US Short Duration High Yield as being a best in class fund within the US high yield area. Hence the bottom up rating for the fund is a maximum 3 stars. The fund receives an additional star as EFGAM has a positive asset allocation view on US High yield.

Finally, the fund receives a 5th star as the style view is positive for short duration.

If a fund outperforms its relative index, we might consider taking some profits and move it off the Funds Best Ideas list.

Indeed, if we make a mistake, we will sell it early and keep losses to a minimum.

The FBI list will be updated monthly to reflect the most recent asset allocation views and any changes to underlying fund and style views. However, we do not anticipate dramatic changes month to month. To help CROs articulate FBI to clients we will produce bespoke factsheets which include our rating rationale and key fund data. The FBI fund list can be found on Invest in the Mutual Funds area.

The fund rankings use both the firm’s macro economic research and forecasting combined with the individual fund research expertise.

This brings a more holistic approach to fund selection.

 EFG Ratings Fund Ratings

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Asset Allocation Rating

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Style Rating



Overall Rating

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investment solutions monthly / 02 / 2013

Investment Spotlight

New Capital China Equity Fund

Reform May Create Opportunities

C

hina’s new leadership should soon stimulate a long-awaited stock rally. During the past two years, the China equity market performed well in the first quarter but lost momentum quickly and became one of the worst performing markets, disappointing investors.

However, we expect 2013 will take a different path. The change of Chinese leadership is an important catalyst, never seen before. Under the new leadership of Xi, China will undergo a series of reforms ranging from capital account liberalisation, VAT, land and tax reform as well as an increase in social spending. This will break the old monopoly and create opportunities for new players. From an investment perspective, one of the ways to capture China's economic growth is through individual “stock picking” not China Exchange Traded Funds. China ETFs often have large shareholdings of heavily weighted big capitalisation stocks, which will likely undergo market devaluation under the reforms.

The New Capital China Equity Fund exploits three major investment themes: Renminbi (RMB) currency Internationalisation combined with banking reform, domestic

consumption and the Internet boom.

Chinese banks are required to preserve more capital to meet Basel III, creating a boom in non-bank financials. The fund has built up positions in the insurance sector with names such as New China Life Insurance Co Ltd. and PICC Property & Casualty for their attractive valuations.

There are some other niche finance players, including China Everbright International Ltd., a listed asset manager; Far East Horizon, a leasing company; Hong Kong Exchange, a platform for distributing RMB financial products. These companies may benefit from the growing financial market in China.

The fund also holds more than a 25% exposure in the consumer sector.

We like the auto and smartphone industries where penetration rates remain low. Dah Chong Hong is our favourite auto servicing company that will benefit from the rising auto-using population. We have built up the fund’s position in the consumer staples sector, which currently has a relatively high price-to-earnings ratio because we believe the market is underestimating the growth potential.

Tencent, which has grown into China’s largest and most used Internet service portal and is known as China’s Facebook, is also our favourite Internet play.

The fund also has significant positions in a few telecom equipment makers.

Your capital is at risk and you may not get back your original investment.

by Mansfield Mok Fund Manager of New Capital China Equity Fund Hong Kong office

The China equity market formed a significant bottom last year. It is now at the early stage of a bull market.

They may benefit from the rising telecom capital expenditure in view of the skyrocketing Internet traffic. We also invest in IT companies that are expanding their business' coverage of increasingly popular cloud computing.

07/08

Hot Topic

Look ook China outside the border to invest inside

by Robin Milway Head of Equity Research London office

D

uring the last few years, investing in companies selling products to China proved to be lucrative. One of the best investments are in companies with products that China can’t produce.

The glaringly obvious example is commodities.

China at this stage in its development cycle requires large quantities of commodities that it does not have.

For an investor, the direct investment route for this is, of course, a very volatile trade and fraught with danger for all but the most skillful (or lucky) commodities trader. The next most direct option is to invest in the junior miners but given the price volatility and patchy access to financing that many have been victims

of for the last few years, this is again probably not a desirable option for most investors. Investing in the super-majors such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto has its own set of issues from a corporate perspective, with their almost unblemished track record of destroying economic value through their capital allocation decisions. So finally this leaves our preferred option of service providers to the mining industry. We’ve chosen two businesses, both based in Australia that should continue to benefit from the ongoing growth in China.

One of our top stock picks is Orica Mining Services Ltd., a global mining services and chemicals company based in Melbourne, Australia. It is the global leader in commercial explosive systems for the resources and infrastructure industries. The majority of profits were derived from selling explosives to miners across Asia Pacific. Orica’s end markets are very diverse with the majority of

investment solutions monthly / 02 / 2013

supply going to coal, copper and gold industries. The explosives business has high barriers to entry and through Orica’s leading position it enjoys robust margins.

Reliability and safety are the principal requirements for clients. Therefore, reputation is paramount and exports and imports are highly regulated and licensing is required for handling and transportation of goods. Importantly, input costs are passed through and Orica has no commodity price exposure within its contracted revenues insulating it from the violent swings in the commodity cycle. Future growth could come from its expansion plans on the western coast of Australia that will open up a new market for iron ore – a major import of China.

We also like ALS Laboratory Group Ltd., a leading Testing Inspection & Certification (TIC) services provider based in Brisbane, Australia. The TIC industry has traditionally facilitated global trade with vital services such as cargo inspection and goods

testing. ALS offers global best practices and leading systems and processes that can perform a greater range of services cheaper than local in-house labs often can.

ALS is primarily a network of laboratories and is one of the largest players in the minerals testing industry with global scale and leading analytical services.

The services cover the entire development and production cycle of a mine; from exploration and assaying the ore content in rock samples to on-site extraction processes and product shipment.

ALS is remunerated by volumes, not pricing and this business is very profitable with over 30% operating margins. Half of spending on global metals exploration is directed on gold and 33% copper, nickel and zinc. Of this exploration a third is undertaken on “greenfield” undeveloped ore bodies. This greenfield is the volatile part of ALS’ business and therefore could benefit from resurgent commodities demand from China.

China at this stage in its development cycle requires large quantities of commodities that it does not have. We’ve chosen two businesses, commodity services providers, both based in Australia that should continue to benefit from the ongoing growth in China: Orica and ALS.

09/10

by Simon Hodges Head of UK Investment Advisory Services London office

CRO

on the Go China Recovery Certificate

Is it possible to ride an expected recovery in China without too much risk of falling off?

W

ith EFGAM’s Managed Opportunity Strategy (MOS), investors can choose an investment solution that focuses on the recovery opportunity in China. It is an investment solution that offers full exposure (100% participation) to an (EFGAM) actively managed multi-asset investment strategy with 100% principal repayment in renminbi (CNH) over three years.

One thing to note is that investors should be aware that the principal repayment is applicable at maturity only, meaning that investors may lose principal should they sell the Certificate during the term.

The ability to gain exposure to a relatively short-dated actively managed multi-asset portfolio with a principal repayment characteristic is possible through a structured certificate. These are flexible structures that allow us to identify unique investment opportunities and tailor these to our client base without the costly administration and construction of a unit trust or other similar fund alternatives.

It is likely that the Certificate will underperform in a bull market, particularly in the early stages. However, we have introduced this investment solution to you because we believe that the market will continue to be uncertain and, as a result, potentially volatile. Therefore, a principal repayment Certificate that offers active exposure to a diversified portfolio should still provide investors with an exciting investment opportunity but in a more conservative format.

The Certificate note will invest in assets and markets that are impacted by China’s economy in the broadest sense. EFGAM believes that China’s economy will continue to strengthen after the recent economic slow down and that this will have a positive effect on a number of risky assets in Asia, which includes Chinese but also Taiwanese or Hong Kong stocks but may also have an impact on other asset classes such as commodities.

The MOS China Recovery note is denominated in renminbi (CNH), so non CNH investors will have currency risk. However we believe that the fundamentals with regard to the renminbi strongly favour the currency continuing to strengthen over the next few years.

In terms of fundamental valuation, a reasonable expectation would be a 5% appreciation per annum over each of the next five years. Therefore, we

believe that the Certificate offers a unique opportunity for investors to enjoy the expected recovery in China and at the same time manage potential volatility and downside risks.

Clients that have a medium risk appetite and believe that conditions for a Chinese recovery look set to improve might consider an investment. Investors who have excess cash; the capacity to take currency risk; wish to target potential returns higher than cash deposits and are willing to invest for a three-year period should speak to their CRO about the opportunity.

We believe that EFGAM’s MOS Certificate offers a unique opportunity for investors to enjoy the expected recovery in China and at the same time manage potential volatility and downside risks.

investment solutions monthly / 02 / 2013

Q

uestion Time tail risk solutions

CRO Question Given that periods when all asset classes closely correlate are becoming more frequent and that this tends to negate the capital preservation qualities of multi-asset and diversified portfolios such as Alpha, what strategies can EFGAM employ within client portfolios to avoid the draw-downs that we have seen in recent years? Can we expect to see the use of options and short Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) or other types of securities?

Answer

This is a question about hedging tail risks, which are low probability events found at either end of a normal distribution curve.

Typically, such tail risk events are associated with sharply negative market movements such as the continuously volatile period of 2008, or the sharp concentrated falls in summer 2011. During these unstable times an “insurance policy” would have helped cushion even

diversified portfolios from precipitous falls.

However being insured at all times can be very expensive and if not managed carefully can negatively impact portfolio performance. Here’s a list of some of the tail risk strategies we have analysed or used in the past and of course we can use in the future when appropriate.

VIX Index and Futures: VIX represents the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, a popular measure of fear. It actually measures the implied volatility of options on the S&P 500 index.

This is like an insurance policy for a market crash. In times of panic people are willing to pay more for insurance so the VIX goes up. However, as with most insurance, it costs most after a market risk event.

ETFs: Another way of insuring from unexpected events is to use a halfway house that gives “30% insurance” and doesn’t cost as much as total insurance.

For example, the Nomura Voltage MidTerm Source ETF (the “Fund”) aims to capture spikes in volatility, while mitigating the cost of holding a long-volatility position through VIX futures.

Hedge Funds: Some hedge funds are also designed to try to protect the downside.

For example, we have previously analysed the Man TailProtect Fund, which seeks to make outsized returns during times of crisis while not giving back too much in calm or rising markets.

by Moz Afzal Chief Investment Officer London office

CTAs: The term Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) refers to a type of strategy that works well as a hedge when there are persistent downward trends in equity markets such as in 2008. However, CTAs don’t work so well when there are sudden reversals, as occurred during the August 2011 short-term crash. CTAs typically invest in futures and forwards on currencies, commodities and bond indices.

Treasuries: Owning US Treasuries can be a useful insurance mechanism. Currently, however, the degree of usefulness is severely compromised by the fact that government bond yields are already so low. When yields were higher US Treasuries not only provided a small real return during normal market conditions but they also tended to rally hard when equity markets crashed. They were therefore a type of insurance you got paid to hold. With yields so low it will be hard for them to move much lower so the ability of Treasuries to rally from here is limited. As a result using US Treasuries as insurance has become very expensive.

EFG Asset Management

EFGAM RESEARCH & PUBLICATIONS Knocking on Asia’s door Perspectives on risk & oppor

tunity Issue 1

Strategic Insight

Contact your Client Relationship Officer to access our latest investment communications:

Issue 20 – 4 December 2012

European High Yield Risks and Opportunities in

QUA RTER LY REV IEW

by Moz Afzal

2

Figure Debt As % of arily good EUR-denominated Spain 2012 has been an extraordin most high Total EU HY year for fixed income, with indices yield and emerging market returns. It is digit registering good double for the year to interesting to note that higher Spain date, high yield has exhibited than US 37% returns with lower volatility EU HY Treasuries.

63% going into However, the wall of money to be fixed income looks to us have jumped in indiscriminate – allocators ding the without necessarily understany in Europe’s Source: BOAML fundamentals, and particularl issues. A case case, some of the technical 3). At the dislocation of US high yield market (Figure would in point is the potential one the event of a European high yield level, European high yield in that is five in our view is therefore assume an impact Spanish downgrade, which high yield times bigger. a real possibility. The European at around level Spanish market currently stands At the global high yield did get a represent an will Eur200bn (Figure 1). If Spain so will go bonds ed downgrad or by around 8%. downgrade, some Eur75bn expansion in the universe to high yield, impact will be from investment grade Still significant, but the of all European Ford (Figure 4), which will mean that 37% more like that of GM and Spanish rise in high high yield will come from where we saw a short sharp stability. companies (Figure 2). yield spreads and then Figure 1

Debt EUR-denominated Spanish Debt EUR-denominated EU HY Debt USD-denominated Spanish Debt USD-denominated US HY Spanish Debt Total Global HY Total

€ 75 bn € 202 bn $20 bn $1,001 bn $112 bn $1,385 bn

This issue:

e Central banks: A chang of approach ment US: Post-crisis adjust exit risk?

Europe: An end to and ities Asia: Megac middle classes

Winter 2013

• Invest PLUS

Special focus: Bond market seesaw

• Quarterly Market Review

Figure 3 d in 2005 GM and Ford Downgrade EFG Asset Management GM: $43bn (May 2005) Ford: $41bn (Sept 2005) time) (both ~7% of US HY at the

• Research Notes

Source: BOAML

Source: BOAML

big deal? Well, Why is this event such a to sell their fund managers will have yield bonds to existing European high ed Spanish make room for the downgrad cause bonds and this switch will time we saw disruption. In fact, the last downgrade of something similar was the junk which forced Ford and GM in 2005 to to widen market the whole US high yield At the time in spread terms by 40bps. d 7% of the Ford and GM only represente

• Invest: Investment Solutions Monthly

• Strategic Insight

11 / 2012

monthly www.efgam.com

In Vino Veritas Toast avant-garde wine

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Hot Topic: Investment Fixed income Spotlight: Bonds: blended, ETPs not stirred Some track while others

New Capital Asia Pacific

Bond Fund

go off the rails

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