Monitoring the CAP The role of indicators Monitoring tools to feed and preserve the planet 10 September 2015 Fertilizers Europe Expo Milano event
Tassos Haniotis Director Economic analysis, perspectives and evaluations; communication DG Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission
Annual real commodity price indexes (2010 = 100) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20
Agriculture
Fertilizers
Source: World Bank
2
Energy
Metals & minerals
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
0
Monthly nominal commodity price indexes (2010 = 100) 300
250
200
150
100
50
Agriculture
Fertilizers
Energy
Source: World Bank
3
Metals and minerals
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0
300
0 2006M01 2006M04 2006M07 2006M10 2007M01 2007M04 2007M07 2007M10 2008M01 2008M04 2008M07 2008M10 2009M01 2009M04 2009M07 2009M10 2010M01 2010M04 2010M07 2010M10 2011M01 2011M04 2011M07 2011M10 2012M01 2012M04 2012M07 2012M10 2013M01 2013M04 2013M07 2013M10 2014M01 2014M04 2014M07 2014M10 2015M01 2015M04 2015M07
FAO real food price indices
(2002-04=100)
250
200
150
100
50
Dairy Cereals
4
Food
CAP reform path and CAP budget, 1980-2020 billion EUR (current prices) 0,8%
80
EU-10
EU-12
70
EU-15 actual expenditure 1980-2014
EU-25
EU-27
EU-28 outlook 2015-2020
0,7% 0,6%
50
0,5%
40
0,4%
30
0,3%
20
0,2%
10
0,1%
0
0,0%
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
60
Export subsidies Coupled support green payments CAP as share of EU GDP
Other market measures Decoupled support Other rural development
Source: DG AGRI.
5
Market expenditure Direct payments agro-environmental measures
The new "greening" architecture of the CAP
Cumulative environmental benefits
Implementation mechanism
Rural development
Green direct payments Cross compliance Agricultural area (eligible for direct payments)
6
Voluntary with compensation for cost incurred and income forgone Mandatory with financial support (decoupled “green� payment per hectare) Regulatory (Statutory Management Requirements and Good Agricultural Environmental Conditions)
Purpose of Monitoring & Evaluation
measure the performance of the CAP assess contribution of CAP to broader EU objectives necessary requirement for every policy using EU budget opportunity for CAP to ensure its credibility
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Key concepts of Monitoring & Evaluation
Monitoring continuous process generating data on implementation (not impacts)
Evaluation judges interventions according to results, impacts, needs
Indicators aggregate data to allow quantification (& simplification) of phenomena
Intervention logic systematic description of link between actions and objectives
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CAP intervention logic CAP general objectives
Viable food production
Sustainable management of natural resources and climate action
Balanced territorial development
CSF* thematic objectives
CAP specific objectives
Enhance farm income Maintain market stability
Improve agricultural competitiveness
Meet consumer expectations
Foster innovation
Maintain diverse agriculture across the EU
Pillar I specific objectives
Provide environmental public goods
Pursue climate change mitigation and adaptation
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Promote socioeconomic development of rural areas
Pillar II priorities
*CSF: Common Strategic Framework including the EFRD, ESF, CF, EAFRD and EMFF
CAP M&E indicators
Context indicators CAP general objectives
Impact indicators
CAP specific objectives (Pillar I specific objectives, Pillar II priorities)
Result indicators
Pillar I instruments & Pillar II measures
Output indicators
Situation & trends
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A common set of impact indicators •
General objective: Viable food production
•
6 Agricultural trade balance
•
General objective :Sustainable management of natural resources & climate action
•
13 Soil erosion
•
General objective : Balanced territorial development
• • • • •
• • • • • •
• • •
1 2 3 4 5
Agricultural entrepreneurial income Agricultural factor income Agricultural productivity EU commodity price variability Consumer price evolution of food products
7 Emissions from agriculture 8 Farmland birds index 9 HNV Farming 10 Water abstraction in agriculture 11Water quality 12 Soil quality
14 Rural employment rate 15 Degree of rural poverty 16 Rural GDP per capita
CAP Monitoring and Evaluation Indicators and data available at: http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cap-indicators/index_en.htm
Thank you for your attention!
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