ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
www.egyptoil-gas.com
Key Highlights Real in
GDP growth rebounded 2016/17
Inflation started to a peak in
m oderate July 2017
of the IMF’s f
to
after
Business
environm ent
Im proved
external com petitiveness
Second Review on Egypt
revenues by reducing 4.2% Increasing m aking the tax system m ore progressive tax adm inistration m ore efficient
reaching
reform s
Elim inating 2019. The mechanism* *Rule
determining
GDP
2016/17
in
Recovery
Letting the Deep to in
to 6%
strengthen in the
to 4.8% m edium
Inflation is 12% by
expected June and
to to
decline to single digits
around in 2019
Outlook
Current account deficit is projected to narrow to 4.5% of GDP in 2017/18 and to 3.5% of GDP by 2021/22
surplus of 0.2 the full year lower wages and
General government to decline by end of the
price
debt is about 17% program
Pressures inPrem ature easing spending term of m onetary policy budgetary
projected of GDP
reform s
central bank access to
to expand beyond allocations
Key Risks Opposition
to
Loss
m om entum
on
of
the
security situation
of
tourism
rise
of
of
Worsening
% GDP is impact of the fuel subsidies
private sector flourish
Reform of the law; im proving finance and land
of
projected rise to
A primary fiscal 2017/18driven by increase, and
magnitude of
and lasting structural create jobs
tourism
Growth is 2017/18and
IMF’s
frequency and
Further Recommendations
Points of Strength deficit to 1.8%
fuel subsidies (excluding fuel price increase and indexati scheduled for December
Shifting subsidy spending towards cash transfer program s like Karam a and Takaful
The floating of the exchange rate which led the parallel market to disappear, increased capital inflows and foreign reserves
Prim ary fiscal narrowed
m ost next are
and
Slower recovery projected in VAT A sustained
reform s by
Lower growth in Egypt’s m ain unexpected tightening of by the
vested interests structural
global
oil
re
pr
trading partners or global financialcondition
March 2018 - ISSUE 135
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