RESEARCH & ANALYSIS
OIL & GAS MARKET DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC:
HIGHLIGHTING EGYPT'S PERFORMANCE BY AMINA HUSSEIN, REHAM GAMAL & YOUSTINA MOUNIR
COVID-19 KEY MILESTONES AFFECTING INTERNATIONAL OIL & GAS MARKET COVID-19 MAIN DEVELOPMENTS
COVID-19 spread to other countries
COVID-19 declared pandemic by WHO
Vaccines effectiveness rate reached 90-94%
COVID-19 Gamma variant documented
Jan 2020
Mar 2020
Nov 2020
Jan 2021
Dec 2019
Feb 2020
COVID-19 beginning in China
Start of global lockdown
Apr 2020
May 2021 Apr 2021
Dec 2020
Trials on vaccines started
Pfizer was the first vaccine validated by WHO
COVID-19 Delta variant documented
COVID-19 Beta variant documented
Nov 2021
*Pfizer antiviral pills effectiveness announced *COVID-19 Omicron variant appeared
COVID-19 EFFECTS ON INTERNATIONAL OIL & GAS MARKET 1. PRICES FLUCTUATIONS CRUDE OIL PRICES ($/bbl)
HIGHLIGHTS ON CRUDE OIL PRICES
Brent Price
WTI Price
50.44 29.34
42.96
44.29
60.82
68.83
73.47
78.50
45.76
27.81
40.89
42.45
57.79
66.09
70.62
76.21
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2020 12 | EGYPT OIL & GAS NEWSPAPER
2021
Date
Level
Prices ($/bbl)
20 Apr, 2020
Lowest
-36.98
26 Oct, 2021
Highest
85.64
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FUEL PRICES (Cent/Gallon) Gaso line
Diesel
216 204
179 178
151 160 100 97 Q1
137 124
133 134
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q1
232 219
239 241
Q3
Q4
Q2
2020
2021
NATURAL GAS PRICES ($/Btu)
3.56
2.53
1.91
1.71
2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
5.02
4.36 2.94
Q1
Q2
2020
Q3
Q4
2021
2. OIL & GAS SUPPLY, DEMAND & INVENTORIES A. OIL & OTHER LIQUIDS
B. NATURAL GAS
INTERNATIONAL PETROLEUM AND OTHER LIQUIDS SUPPLY & DEMAND (mmbbl/d)
US NATURAL GAS SUPPLY & DEMAND (bcf/d)
Supply
Supply
Demand
100.39 98.1 94.94
91.96 92.74 90.66
94.59
96.13 94.03
96.62
99.27
99.89
99.98
99.4
98.15
92.38
92.66
Q4
Q1
2020
Q2
Q3
2021
AVERAGE GLOBAL OIL INVENTORIES (mmbbl/d) Year
2020 2021
86.03
76.16 75.08 76.96
70.83 Q3
85.68 87.05
71 Q2
99.19
86.21
94.61
84.93 Q1
Demand
Q4
Q1
Q3
Q2
71.92
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
75.34 72.52 Q3
Q4
2021
AVERAGE NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES* (bcf)
Inventories Increased by
Decreased by
2.1 1.4
3,086
11.6%
2,728 Year
2020
2021
*US Working Natural Gas
FEBRUARY 2022 - ISSUE 182 | 13
RESEARCH & ANALYSIS
3. WORLD RIG COUNT
WORLD RIG COUNT IN 2020 VS. 2021
AVERAGE WORLD RIG COUNT
6,162 2020
2021
4,611 3,763 3,099 3,194 3,684 3,776 4,262
1,361
1,352
0.67%
Q1
Q2 Q3 2020
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3 2021
Q4
EGYPT’S OIL & GAS SECTOR PERFORMANCE 1. SECTOR’S GDP PETROLEUM SECTOR GDP OVER FYS (2019/20-2020/21) EGP 1,151.4 billion
Total Petroleum GDP
Sector’s Share in Total GDP
NEW DISCOVERIES
9.9%
2. EXPLORATION ACTIVITIES
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
total
86
28
114
A. BID ROUNDS EUG BID ROUNDS IN 2021 Launched Bid Rounds
Start Date
SIGNED DEVELOPMENT LEASES
Concessionaire
Closing Date
Location
Signed Leases
Location
29
Western Desert Eastern Desert Nile Delta
Eastern & Western
2
Signature Bonus
$13.5 million
Mediterranean
Feb 2021
EGPC & EGAS
Western Desert
Sep 2021
Gulf of Suez 24 Offered Blocks
C. PRODUCTION LEVEL TOTAL PRODUCTION OVER 2020 & 2021
1
Nov 2021
North King Mariout
EGAS
Jan 2022
158.4 mmt B. PETROLEUM AGREEMENTS, DISCOVERIES & DEVELOPMENT LEASES OVER 2020 & 2021 SIGNED AGREEMENTS & AGREEMENTS IN ISSUANCE Signed Agreements
PRODUCTION PER PRODUCT (MMT) Natural Gas
Crud e Oi l & Cond e ns a tes
Agreements in Issuance Phase
No.
Minimum Investments ($ billion)
29
23
2.823
7.1
Signature Bonus ($ million)
155
266.3
Drilling Commitment
88
72
14 | EGYPT OIL & GAS NEWSPAPER
Butane
98.4 53.1
45.3 29.6 2020
1.2
57.9 2.2
28.3 1 2021
Total
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4. INVESTMENTS & ARREARS A. INVESTMENTS
B. ARREARS
PETROLEUM SECTOR INVESTMENTS OVER FYS (2019/20-2020/21)
ARREARS TO IOCS ($ billion)
Total Petroleum Investments
EGP 201.213 billion
Sector’s Share in Total Investments
12.9%
FY
PETROLEUM INVESTMENTS PER FY(EGP billion)
2020/21
104.87
96.34
0.845
The lowest since FY 2011/12 whereas
8.9%
2019/20
2020/21
arrears declined by 86.6%
FY
INTERNATIONAL OIL & GAS MARKET INSIGHTS IN 2022 * 1. OIL & GAS PRICES ESTIMATED AVERAGE OIL & GAS PRICES
AVERAGE GLOBAL OIL INVENTORIES
Product
Price
WTI ($/bbl)
66.46
Brent($/bbl)
70.08
Gasoline (cent/gallon)
206
Decrease by
AVERAGE END-OF-PERIOD COMMERCIAL CRUDE OIL AND OTHER LIQUIDS INVENTORIES Rate of Change (YoY)
4058.25 mmbbl Diesel (cent/gallon)
0.53
mmbbl/d
0.54%
211
B. NATURAL GAS Natural Gas ($/Btu)
3.98
AVERAGE US NATURAL GAS SUPPLY & DEMAND (BCF/D) Ra te of Chan ge (YoY)
2. OIL & GAS DEMAND, SUPPLY & INVENTORIES
Demand
Supply
83.63
A. OIL & OTHER LIQUIDS
82.83
5.1%
AVERAGE INTERNATIONAL PETROLEUM AND OTHER LIQUIDS SUPPLY & DEMAND (mmbbl/d)
5.15
AVERAGE NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES
Rate o f C hange ( Y o Y )
5.8%
Supply
101.05
3.75%
Demand
100.51
2,723 bcf
R a te of Ch a n g e
0.16%
(YoY)
* Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
FEBRUARY 2022 - ISSUE 182 | 15