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The Elia Group At the start of a decade reshaping the European Electricity Network June 2010
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Disclaimer This document has been prepared by Elia SO (the ‘Company’, and, together with Elia Asset, ‘Elia’) solely for use at roadshow presentations held in connection with the secondary public offering of Elia SO (the ‘Offering’). This document is confidential and is not to be reproduced by any person, nor be redistributed to any person. The Company takes no responsibility for the use of these materials by any person. The information contained in this document is for background purposes only and is subject to amendment, revision and updating. No representation or warranty expressed or implied is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. None of Elia, KBC, ING, Fortis, Dexia, its affiliates, its advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this document. Any decision to buy or purchase securities in the Offering must be based on the information contained in the prospectus that will be prepared in connection with the Offering and filed with The Belgian Commission for Banking, Finance and Insurance (‘CBFA’). This announcement does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to its registration or qualification under the laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this document is not for publication, release or distribution in the United States, South Africa, Australia, Canada or Japan. The securities referred to herein have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the ‘Securities Act’); and may not be offered or sold in the United States unless they are registered pursuant to the Securities Act or pursuant to an available exemption therefrom. No public offering of securities of the Company is being made in the United States. This document is only being distributed to and is only directed (i) at persons who are outside the United Kingdom or (ii) to investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 (all such persons together being referred to as ‘relevant persons’). Any investment activity to which this document relates is only available to, and will be engaged only with, relevant persons. Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this document or any of its contents. A prospectus is expected to be available as of 4 June 2010. The prospectus will notably be available on the website of the Company and the Joint Global Coordinators and Joint Bookrunners. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This document contains various forward-looking statements that reflect the Company’s current views with respect to plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events, future revenues or performance, capital expenditure, financing needs, plans or intentions relating to acquisitions, competitive strengths and weaknesses, business strategy and the trends the Company anticipates in the industry and the political and legal environment in which it operates and other information that is not historical information. The words “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “may”, “plan”, “estimate”, “should”, “could”, “aim”, “target”, “might”, or, in each case, their negative or similar expressions identify certain of these forwardlooking statements. Others can be identified from the context in which the statements are made. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which are in some cases beyond the Company’s control and may cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those expressed or implied from such forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that its expectations will be attained. The forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this document, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
1
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The Elia Group A strong future in a European integrated regional electricity market
2
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Foundations of the Elia group
1 2 3 4 5 6 De facto monopoly
TOP 5 TSO in Europe with highly reliable and resilient networks EU wide focus on climate change and energy policies Excellent position for future network integration
Safe and regulated income stream
May 2010 3
Attractive dividend yield with growth potential
3
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De facto monopoly as TSOs • Elia and 50Hertz operate, maintain and develop a network consisting of lines, underground cables, transformers and substations linking producers and consumers of electricity
Elia & 50Hertz
* Voltage levels differ per country
4
Elia
DSOs
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Overview of TSO activities Elia
50Hertz
• Network operation System operation
• Capacity allocation • Balancing generation and demand
Infrastructure management
• Asset management & ownership • Network development • Predictive and curative maintenance EU and local market facilitator Capacity auctions: CASC-CWE
Related activities
Regional monitoring: CORESO Power exchange: APX Group & HGRT Renewables: Green certificates Activities for third parties
5
CAO, EMCC,
EEG
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Elia+50Hertz creates a TOP 5 TSO in Europe Elia Group
110 to 380 kV lines & cables 30 to 70 kV lines & cables Number of substations Area covered (km2) Direct customers Residents covered Employees (FTE) Regulated Asset Base (RAB)
13,431km 4,800km 872 c.143,000 c.130 >29 million c.1,800 â‚Ź5,097m
Top 5 position gives Elia the critical mass to play a leading role in the reshaping of the electricity market 6
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Elia+50Hertz: reliable and resilient networks Ownership Elia • 100% of 380-150kV network • 94% of high voltage network (70-30kV)
50Hertz • 100% of 380-220kV network - 34% of the German 380kV network - 19% owner of the German 220kV network
Age of networks Elia • Less than 10 years for 50% of underground cables Elia
50Hertz
• Less than 20 years for 50% of lines & substations
50Hertz • Around 10 years for 90% of the network (refurbished after German reunification in 1989)
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European perspective accelerates… Evolving from reliable networks designed for optimisation of generation resources and power demand requirements…
Electricity Directive 96/92/EC (1999) 3rd Legislative Package for the Internal Market in electricity (2009) Directive for Renewable Energy Sources (2009)
… towards a transmission and distribution networks implementing EU energy and climate policies and maximising welfare
8
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… with focus on climate change and energy policies 1,200 1,000
TWh
800
Offshore wind
Today
600 400
Onshore wind
200
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
0 22 22
0 32 32
1 44 45
2 55 57
2 67 69
3 80 83
3 96 99
4 115 119
5 132 137
7 150 157
11 168 179
16 189 205
24 211 235
32 233 265
42 257 299
54 281 335
67 308 375
82 336 418
102 367 469
122 399 521
148 433 581
177 462 639
209 489 698
244 514 758
282 535 817
323 551 874
366 562 928
413 461 511 563 571 579 586 59 984 1,040 1,097 1,155
Implementing the EU policies for • Security of supply • Internal electricity market • 20% renewable energy sources
Implies • More transmission capacities • Smarter network operation • Better coordination among TSOs
Elia & 50Hertz = ideal position
9
2030
2003
2029
2002
2028
2001
Offshore Onshore Total
2000
0
... in a context of market integration and coupling 2011
2012
Undersea cable UK & NL
Nordic market
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Baltic market
7 September 2010 ´ ´
Central West Market ´
Germany Benelux France
´ ´
2012/2013 South-West Market
´ ´
´
´
2012/2013 Central South market
´ ´
´
´ ´
´
Fast evolution towards regional electricity markets on a European level
10
´ ´
´
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… and consolidation of power exchanges ● 2009: Powernext + EEX = EPEX ● 2010: APX + Belpex* Nordpool Spot
Tennet BV 56.1%
Gasunie 20.9%
Fluxys 3.0%
Elia 20.0%
APX – Endex Belpex
APX Group
´ ´ ´
100%
BELPEX
Better positioned for further integration * Subject to closing
11
EPEX Spot
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Regulatory frameworks • A mature Belgian regulation with safe and regulated net profit stream • A young German regulation with safe and regulated revenue stream
12
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Belgium: Mature regulation with fixed tariffs for 4 years 4 year regulatory period (2008-2011; 2012-2015) Classify costs, revenues => controllable & non-controllable NC C
2
Non Tariff
Non Controllable Costs (NC)
Net profit
C Tariff
Controllable1 Costs (C)
Tariff
NC
Net profit
Charges
Revenues
1. Mainly consists of purchases of materials, services and other goods and remuneration except the ancillary services and pension costs for retired employees; 2. Mainly consists of telecom services, third party services, surplus value on sale fixed assets and insurance claims
13
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Belgium: components of the regulated net profit 1. Fair remuneration • Equity remuneration based on formula • Deduction over-depreciation (before TSO license): (€8.2m net) till Q3 2012 • Equity ratio ‘capped’ at 33% 2. Decommissioning • Goodwill from decommissioning included in tariffs • Reserved for financing future investments 3. Incentivisation on controllable costs • Ceiling = same amount as efficiency gain (X-factor)
4. Transfer pricing agreement • 60% of the margin on the results of foreign consulting activities • Financial participations - in RAB: dividends and surplus values: 60% to Elia and 40% to tariff reductions - outside RAB: All costs and revenues outside Belgian regulation
14
Germany: A safe and regulated revenue stream
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Grid tariffs are based on a revenue cap determined by the regulator based on base year data for a 5 year regulatory period (ex. 2006 Î 2009-2013; 2011 for the period 2014-2018)
4
Renewable support schemes (‘AusgleichMechV’)
3
System services (‘Korridor’)
2
15
2
Controllable costs: Revenue cap based on 2006 costs Inventive based
3
System services (‘Korridor’) Combination of pass-through & incentive
4
Renewable support schemes (EEG; ‘AusgleichMechV’ & ‘AusgleichMechAV’) Pass-through based
Controllable costs
Revenue cap
Charges
Non-controllable costs: Based on actual costs Generally a direct pass-through (subject to a time lag)
Non tariff
Tariffs
1
1
Non controllable costs
Revenues
Germany: A safe and regulated revenue stream 1 Renewable support schemes (‘AusgleichMechV’)
Non tariff
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Non-controllable costs ● Mainly relate to approved investments. Cost items of approved investments: - ROE: pre-tax 9.29% on 40% of capex
System services (‘Korridor’)
- real cost of debt on 60% of capex - depreciation, trade tax (local corporate tax)
Controllable costs
- OPEX for offshore Tariffs Revenue cap
1
● Inter TSO shared costs for offshore IBs ● Onshore IBs are becoming part of RAB (controllable costs) in next regulatory period
Non controllable costs
● Inclusion in revenue cap with 2 year time lag (with compensation for time lag except for opex) Charges
16
Revenues
Germany: A safe and regulated revenue stream 2 Renewable support schemes (‘AusgleichMechV’)
Non tariff
System services (‘Korridor’)
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Controllable costs ● Included in revenues at start of each regulatory period based on costs and RAB of base year 2006 ● Fair remuneration based on RAB of 2006 - ROE: pre-tax 7.56%/9.29%/4.23% (1) on equity part of RAB of 2006
2
Controllable costs
● Included costs of 2006 Tariffs Revenue cap Non controllable costs
- cost of debt on interest-bearing debt of RAB, although with cap - depreciation, trade tax, opex ● Non tariff revenues (ex. telecom, consulting)
Charges
Revenues
● Yearly increase with inflation and yearly decrease with efficiency (0.04% a year) & productivity factor (1.25% in the first period)
1. 7.56% for investments up to 31/12/2005. 9.29% for investments from 01/01/2006. 4.23% for equity above 40% of regulated RAB
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Germany: A regulation in evolution Major improvements approved in 2009, starting as from 01/01 2010 3
4
3
Renewable support schemes (‘AusgleichMechV’)
System Services (‘Korridor model’) ● Pass through mechanism:
Non tariff
● Costs included in the tariffs based on planned costs
System services (‘Korridor’)
● Differences between planned and real costs are compensated on a T+2 time lag ● Incentive mechanism (positive & negative) capped at the lower of 25% of the total difference between planned and real costs or 5% of total planned costs
Controllable costs Tariffs Revenue cap
4 Non controllable costs
Renewable support schemes (EEG; ‘AusgleichMechV’ & ‘AusgleichMechAV’) ● Costs relating to renewables (energy purchase/selling, reserve costs) are taken out of the tariffs and compensated by levy
Charges
18
Revenues
● Fully pass-through by law
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Germany : components of the regulated net profit 1.
From controllable items •
Fixed amount for 5 years based on Equity RAB from base years (2006, 2011, 2016, etc.) • 7.56% on 40% of investments before 1/1/2006 • 9.29% pre-tax (only federal corporate tax of +/- 15%) on 40% of investments from 1/1/2006 • 10 year average of German 10 year bond on Excess equity (> 40% of RAB)
2.
3.
From non-controllable items •
9.29% pre-tax (on federal corporate tax of +/-15%) on 40% of investments approved by BNetzA
•
With a 2 year time delay but delay is compensated in year T+2
From Korridor (ancillary services : grid losses, balancing and redispatch) •
Incentive mechanism (can be positive or negative)
•
25% of difference between planned and real costs with a cap of 5% on planned costs
4. Items currently not or only partly recovered in the tariffs
19
•
Interest rates under controllable items are capped at 10 year average German 10 year bond
•
Non approved investments by BNetzA are not remunerated till next regulatory period
•
Additional opex (G&A, personnel expenses, maintenance costs, etc) on new investments cannot be recovered till next regulatory period
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Financials
• Bottom-up approach of 2009 Elia’s P/L • Elia’s financial debt position • 50Hertz acquisition price & structuring • Elia+50Hertz pro-forma 2009 figures • Elia’s group dividend policy 20
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2009 IFRS Profit and Loss Bottom-up approach of Elia’s P&L in 2009 (€m): calculation of net profit
66.7 31.5
Non tariff Tariff Shortfall
2009A
2009E
Average RAB 2009
3,765
3,688
Reference equity (33%)
1,242
1,217
1
5.08%
62.0
61.9
35.70%2
36.25%
3
3.25%
4.64%
4.63%
4.7
5.5
(8.2)
(8.2)
Fair remuneration (A+B+C)
58.6
59.2
Goodwill decommissioning
15.4
14.2
Controllable cost incentive
6.3
6.0
Result from transfer pricing
0.7
Others
0.3
0.0
81.3
79.4
Cost of equity Equity reference remuneration (A) Av. equity / Av. assets Deviation on ref. equity Equity deviation remuneration
686.0
s-factor (B)
Costs
Over-depreciation (C) 673.5
84.0 Charges
Tariff
Net profit Belgian GAAP (tariffs)
Net profit Revenues
21
2.70%
Consolidation Belpex
0.3
IFRS reconciliation
2.4
Net profit IFRS 1. OLO of 3.9431%; Beta of 0.300 and a risk premium of 3.5% 2. Av. Equity = €1,344m and Av. Assets = €3,765m 3. OLO of 3.9431% and deviation rate of 70 bp
4.99%
84.0
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Financial debt position Elia benefits from a strong credit rating Standard & Poor’s rating Long Term: Outlook:
ACreditwatch Neg
31-Dec-09
31-Dec-08
2,453.8
2,370.5
65.8%
64.0%
2.46
2.84
7.5
7.1
Average cost of debt
5.30%
5.15%
% fixed of gross debt
81.1%
70.0%
Unused credit lines as of 31-Dec-09
Amount (€m)
Interest rate
65
Euribor + 5 bp
Committed bank loans
275
Euribor + (60-100) bp
Uncommitted bank loan
170
To be negotiated
Commercial paper program
250
To be negotiated
Net debt (€m) Leverage (D/D+E) EBITDA/Gross Interest Net debt/EBITDA
3,000
2,628.3
2,397.7
132.5
2,500
164.3 350.0
2,000 € 1,500
2,000.0
1,000.0
1,000 500
883.5
495.8
European Investment Bank
0 31-Dec-09
22
31-Dec-08
Shareholders' loans
Eurobonds
ST bank loans
EIB + CP + Accrued interests
• In order to finance the 60% acquisition of 50Hertz, Elia used -
excess cash of €125.7m
-
bridge to capital increase of €153m
• The acquisition will be refinanced with a capital increase of up to €300m
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50Hertz acquisition price & structuring IFM Global Infrastructure Fund 100%
Elia (Belgium)
LuxCo (Luxembourg)
60%
40%
€278.7m
€185.9m
Eurogrid Int (Belgium) €464.6m
Bank/bond financing
€350m
Capex facility:
€350m
Working capital: EEG WC:
50Hertz
€278.7m
- IFM:
€185.9m
- separate financing - non recourse
50Hertz Offshore Fiscal unity
23
- Elia:
• Clear distinction between Belgian and German activities
€50m €100m
• Acquisition price: €464.6m
• Closing: May 19th, 2010
100%
Term loan:
• Corporate governance structure leading to joint control Æ proportionate consolidation
• Signing: March 12th, 2010
100%
Eurogrid GmbH (Germany)
€850m bank loans
• Acquisition by Elia and IFM
Other minority subsidiaries
• Bought with a discount of about 40% to RAB
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Elia+50Hertz pro-forma 2009 figures IFRS 50Hertz proportionately consolidated Elia (60%) Income statement (€m) Consolidated turnover EBITDA Operating result (EBIT)
2009 771.3 327.9 225.8
2009 438.9 56.8 14.7
Gain from bargain price Operating result before gain on bargain purchase
Financial result Taxes Consolidated net profit attributable to the equity holders of the Company Profit per share (€) Profit per share (€) (excluding gain on bargain) Balance sheet (€m) Total assets Equity attributable to the equity holders of the Company Net debt Equity per share (€) Total number of shares (end of period)
Consolidated Proforma (Elia+60% of 50Hertz) 2009 1,210.2 634.61 3 490.43
Change in % 56.9% 93.5% 117.2%
255.5 225.8
14.7
234.9
(120.4) (20.0)
(10.4) (3.2)
(129.3) (22.0)
7.4% 10.0%
84.0
6.5
3
308.5%
5.76 1.47
231.2%
1.74
31-Dec-09 4,420.0 1,365.4 2,444.3 28.29 48,270,255
31-Dec-09 1,257.8 534.3 157.8
343.1
31-Dec-09 5,690.7 1,912.0 2,591.1 32.08
28.7% 40.0% 6.0% 16.3%
59,604,9292
23.5%
1. EBITDA = EBIT + depreciation + changes in provisions 2. Assumption: Capital increase of €300m at €26.5/share representing 11,320,755 new shares + capital increase of January 2010 representing 13,919 shares 3. Bargain on purchase price of €255.5m is included as a one-off net profit
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Elia’s group dividend policy Elia’s group dividend policy contemplates a steady and growing dividend 2.5
91.8% 89.6%
90%
89.9%
2.0 85% 1.5
1.27
€ 1.0
1.27
1.28
1.3
1.38 81.7%
1.37
80%
79.3% 75.7%
0.5
75%
70%
0.0 2004
2005
2006 Dividend
2007
2008
2009
Pay-out ratio
• Pay-out ratio over 2009 Belgian GAAP result is 81.7 % (79.3% under IFRS) • The Elia group intends to maintain at least the dividend level of 2009, subject to regulatory & market conditions
25
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Continuous talks with regulator aiming for win-win solutions 1. Foreign consulting activities (60% for the shareholders) • Training 9 TSOs Maghreb countries 9 General courses for bankers, lawyers, consultants, etc. • Consulting 9 Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority 9 Entso-E contract in Ukraine • MOU with RTE 9 Cooperation in activities in Middle-East and US 2. Financial investments which are part of the RAB (60% for the shareholders) • HGRT (Powernext) • Belpex • CASC, Coreso 3. Financial investments which are not part of the RAB (100% for the shareholders) • 50Hertz Transmission
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Foundations of the Elia group
1 2 3 4 5 6 De facto monopoly
TOP 5 TSO in Europe with highly reliable and resilient networks EU wide focus on climate change and energy policies Excellent position for future network integration
Safe and regulated income stream
27
Attractive dividend yield with growth potential
PU\OSBO\Eli\A20100863.3 01/06/2010 09:16
Questions & Answers Investors Relations – Contact details Bert Maes Tel: + 32 (0)2/546.72.39 Mail: bert.maes@elia.be Website: http://www.elia.be
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Appendix
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Elia+50Hertz: outstanding network availability Very high and high voltage network of Elia
Elia (380-30)
Year
2009
2008
2007
2006
AIT (min/customer/year)
1’34”
3’07”
3’32”
5’14”
99.9990
99.9994
99.9993
99.9990
2009
2008
2007
2006
0’00”
0’00”
0’00”
0’00”
100
100
100
100
Availability (%)
Combined very high voltage network of Elia and 50Hertz
Year Elia+50Hertz (380-220) AIT (min/customer/year) Availability (%)
• Elia benefits from a highly meshed 30-150kV network • Availability is close to 100% for both 380-220kV networks
30
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Belgium, among the most interconnected countries‌ Year 2009 in Megawatt (MW)
South
North
Total
Maximum capacity allocated to the market
3,500
1,401
4,901
Total is 36.2% of peak system load of 13,530 MW
Yearly average capacity allocated to the market
2,501
1,375
3,876
Total is 41.5% of average system load of 9,333 MW
Ex ante guaranteed minimum capacity
1,700
946
2,646
Total is 28.3% of average system load of 9,333 MW
3,769 GWh
Total energy exchanges 2009-2008
Netherlands 5,787 GWh
Exchanged 2009
Exchanged 2008
Change
F->B
1,832
7,386
-75%
B->F
6,642
2,039
+226%
N->B
5,787
8,119
-29%
B->N
3,769
3,005
+25%
L->B
1,868
1,629
+15%
B->L
910
1,518
-40%
20,807
23,695
-12%
Direction
6,642 GWh France 1,832 GWh
31
1,868 GWh 910 GWh
Total
Luxembourg
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… successfully integrated with France and the Netherlands ● Trilateral market coupling since 2006 leading to competitive wholesale prices in BE ● Market coupling with Germany and Luxemburg will start in September 2010 Border
Belgian-French border – 2009
Constrained
Unconstrained
F ≠ B ≠ NL
F = B ≠ NL
1.6 %
13.2 %
F ≠ B = NL
F = B = NL
28.4 %
56.8 %
Constrained Belgian-Dutch border – 2009
Unconstrained
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Elia Group Corporate structure Publi-T
Publipart
45.37%
Eurogrid International 03/2010
2.53%
Coreso 12/2008 Real time control of EU flows
1. 1 share Publi-T 2. Subject to closing
33
52.10%
Elia: A Single Economic Unit 60.0%
Licensed System Operator
Elia System Operator 99.99%
Holding company for 50Hertz
33.3%
Freefloat
Elia Asset1
14.3%
CASC-CWE 10/2008 5 countries 7 TSOs Auctioning
24.5%
HGRT 12/2001 52,25% shareholder of Powernext
Network Owner
20%2
APX Group Electricity and gas exchange
100%
Elia Re 02/2002 Captive reinsurance company
100%
Elia Engineering 12/2003 Engineering consultancy firm
PU\OSBO\Eli\A20100863.3 01/06/2010 09:16
Comparison German and Belgian regulatory framework Germany
Belgium
Basic principle
Cost based regulation
=
Cost based Regulation
Model
Revenue Cap
=
Revenue Cap
Regulatory periods (RP)
5 years (2009-2013 ; 2014-2018)
≈
4 years (2008-2011 ; 2012-2015)
Investments
• • •
Investment Budgets (IB) : expansion and restructuring Other investments: RAB
≠
• •
All investments in RAB Offshore investments borne by wind generator
• • •
Return does not depend on liquidity of share Fixed ex-ante, based on formula (risk free rate + premium)
≠
• • •
Return depends on liquidity of share (ß) Formula: OLO + ß x 3.5%
Allowed return on equity
Offshore investments borne by TSO
Lower Remuneration (= Cost of debt) for excess equity. Reference: 40% of total regulated balance sheet
Lower Remuneration (OLO + 0.7%) for excess equity Reference: 33% RAB
Goodwill decommissioning assets
Not applicable
Recovered through tariffs
Non incentivised costs
Permanently Non Influenceable Costs
Coûts non-gérables – Niet-beheersbare kosten
Definition
• • • • • • • •
IB: Cost of debt IB: Imputed depreciation
≠
IB: Imputed trade taxes IB: Return on equity IB: OPEX for offshore IB (as agreed by the 4 TSOs, not by the regulator) Inter-TSO shared costs
… (income) Congestion rents and ITC NB: Costs for provision of ancillary services – see below Inclusion in Revenue Cap
• •
34
Incurred cost in year t-2, with compensation for time lag for cost items related to IB (but not for offshore opex) To be fixed in year t-1 (Revenue Cap may be updated during RP)
≠
• • • • • • • •
Cost of debt – principle of embedded debt Depreciation
• •
Forecast cost for year t
Taxes Return on equity Usage fees to other operators Pensions (for retired/non-active) (income) Congestion rents and ITC Costs for provision of ancillary services
To be fixed before start of RP (Revenue Cap may not be updated during RP)
PU\OSBO\Eli\A20100863.3 01/06/2010 09:16
Comparison German and Belgian regulatory framework Incentivised costs
Germany Total Incentivised Costs
Definition
• OPEX, with the exception of
Belgium Coûts gérables – Beheersbare kosten ≠
costs for provision of regulating power, compensation of grid losses and redispatch Assets in RAB: Cost of debt, with cap Assets in RAB: Depreciation Assets in RAB: Trade taxes Assets in RAB: Return on equity Non tariff revenues
• OPEX, with the exception of
−
• • • • • Inclusion in Revenue Cap
≠
• Proposal Elia for period 2008 • Increase with actual inflation • Reduction with efficiency factor
• Efficiency factor: 0.04% per year (cumulative) in first period • Productivity factor: 1.25% per year (cumulative) in 1st period
≠
• Productivity and efficiency factor: global reduction of €25
• On incentivized costs (no limit) and costs under Korridor model
≠
• On incentivized costs. • 1st RP: limitation to €25 million for 4 years
≠
• All costs non incentivized (◊ pass through) • Advice CREG; decision Minister on reasonable prices
• Base year costs: 2006 for period 2009-2013; 2011 for period • •
Efficiency and productivity improvements
•
2014-2018 Increase with inflation (2 years lag) Decrease with efficiency and productivity factors
million for period of 4 years (€4 million, €6million, €7 million, €8 million)
(1.5% in 2nd period)
Out-performance
• Provision ancillary services
costs for provision of ancillary services usage fees to other operators pensions (for retired/non-active) Non tariff revenues − − −
(5% of planned costs as overall limit). No limitation on outperformance
• Voltage control and black start: incentivized costs • Regulating power, redispatch and losses: Korridor model: − − −
Reference = planned costs Market based rates for supply of ancillaries Limited incentive (25% of difference between actual & planned costs)
Support schemes Renewables
• Obligation to buy/sell energy + balancing • Difference between costs and revenues to be recovered
≈
• Obligation to buy/sell green certificates • Difference between costs and revenues to be recovered through
Network tariffs
Defined on yearly basis
≠
Fixed for 4 years
Differences actual – projected revenues
• On regulatory account • To be recovered by adjustment tariffs next period • If difference exceeds 5%: immediate (next year) adjustment of
≈
• On regulatory account • To be recovered by adjustment tariffs next period
through levy (AusglMechV)
tariffs
35
levy
PU\OSBO\Eli\A20100863.3 01/06/2010 09:16
Network operators & regulators A regulatory environment taking into account the Federal Belgian State and the German Federal State
Belgium 380/220kV
CREG
Elia
150kV
4 licenses
70/30kV 15kV/220V
VREG/CWAPE/B RUGEL
DSOs
Germany
50Hertz
Transpower
Amprion
380/220kV
EnBW BNetzA/
1 License per TSO 110kV 10kV 220V
36
DSOs
BNetzA & state Authorities
0
37
Infrastructure Losses System Services Other regulatory charges
Sweden
Spain
Slovenia
Slovak Rep
Romania
Portugal
Poland
Norway
Netherlands
Lithuania
Latvia
Italy
Ireland
Hungary
Greece
Great Britain
Germany
France
Finland
Estonia
Denmark West
Denmark East
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Belgium
Austria
â‚Ź/MWh
PU\OSBO\Eli\A20100863.3 01/06/2010 09:16
Among the lowest tariffs in Europe 30
25
20
15
10
5
PU\OSBO\Eli\A20100863.3 01/06/2010 09:16
Outlook CAPEX 2010 (excl. 50Hertz) CAPEX 2010
• Capex = €117m (€146.6m initially)
€117m Other investments 8.0% Interconnections 5.0%
• Main reasons for lower capex Replacements 45.0%
- weak economy - delayed projects by customers Æ in line with autofinancing
RES & generation localisation 12.0%
• Main drivers - RES integration
Internal consumption 30.0%
- internal demand - reliability (replacements)
• No impact on regulated profit (ROE remuneration)
38
Outlook 2010: Fair remuneration (excl. 50Hertz)
PU\OSBO\Eli\A20100863.3 01/06/2010 09:16
Determination of net profit 2010 by the regulator (Belgian GAAP) CREG Average RAB 20103
3,772
Reference equity (33%)
1,245
Cost of equity3 Equity reference remuneration (A) Av. equity / Av. RAB3 Deviation on ref. equity Equity deviation remuneration3 D-factor (B) Over-depreciation (C)
4.98%1 62.0 35.94% 2.94% 4.63%2 5.1 (8.2 )
Fair remuneration (A+B+C) = [1]
58.9
Goodwill decommissioning3 [2]
14.2
Controllable cost incentive3 [3] = Y Net profit as set by tariffs [∑ 1+2+3]
0.0
Not available for profit distribution; â‚Ź14.2 is the estimated yearly amount for the period 2008-2011
73.1
1. OLO of 3.9278%; Beta of 0.3 and a risk premium of 3.5%; 2. OLO of 3.9278% and deviation rate of 70bp; 3. To be recomputed ex-post based on real OLO, real beta, real RAB & Equity, real decommissioning and real controllable cost savings
39
PU\OSBO\Eli\A20100863.3 01/06/2010 09:16
Major projects: evolution 2010 and beyond (excl. 50Hertz) • Stevin: extension 380 kV grid to the coast - procedure for inclusion in land-use plan (GRUP) launched - commissioning foreseen in 2015 ● Brabo: 380 kV grid extension Antwerp port area - first phase Lillo-Zandvliet: planning permit procedure launched ● Interconnection France - Aubange- Moulaine: second conductor set; commissioning foreseen 1st semester of 2010 ● Interconnection Luxembourg - feasibility study for 220 kV interconnection pursued ● Interconnection Germany - feasibility study concluded and positive; detailed study started ● Nemo undersea cable with UK
- feasibility confirmed; project phase launched to define technical aspects and licence procedures; commissioning foreseen as from 2016
40
Fixed tariffs for the period 2008-2011 in Belgium
PU\OSBO\Eli\A20100863.3 01/06/2010 09:16
Means strong visibility for the cost basis of Elia’s customers Tariffs for use of the grid and tariffs for ancillary services: comparison 2001-2008 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Q4) (Q2to Q4)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Q4) (Q2to Q4)
Onthe380/ 220/ 150kV networ k
Annual power
41
At tr ansf or mer output tothe70/ 36/ 30kV networ k
System management
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Q4) (Q2to Q4) Onthe70/ 36/ 30kV networ k
Ancillary services
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Q4) (Q2to Q4) At tr ansf or mer output tomediumvoltage
Loss compensation